Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For March 7: Primary Bull Market In Stocks Reconfirmed 0 comments
    Mar 7, 2014 10:35 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Transports break above the December 31st, 2013 closing highs.

    I am short of time, so it is going to be a brief post on this Dow Theory blog.

    The SPY, the Transports and the Industrials closed up. The SPY made higher closing highs confirmed by the Transports, which finally managed to exceed their December 31st, 2013 closing highs. The Industrials haven't confirmed yet. However, two indices suffice to reconfirm the primary bull market.

    Therefore, the primary trend is bullish and has been reconfirmed.

    The secondary trend has been signaled as bullish today.

    Gold and Silver

    SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, and in spite of all the bullishness than now surrounds gold and silver, the primary trend remains bearish.

    For the primary trend to turn bullish, SLV and GLD should jointly break above the secondary (bullish) reaction highs. As a reminder, the secondary reaction closing highs were made on August 27th, 2013. From such highs the market declined without jointly violating the June 27th, 2013 primary bear market lows.

    By the way, I alerted that the secondary trend turned bullish long ago (on July 22, 2013), when most market pundits were solidly bearish, as you can read here. Now, those very pundits are very bullish as only the sky was the limit. I take the middle road based on the Dow Theory: Since July 22, 2013 there was technically good reason not to be so bearish; on February 14th, 2014, there is no reason to be long term so bullish.

    Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed.

    Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.

    As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed down. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here. In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.

    The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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