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David Stafford
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Student of markets, enjoys following their course.
My book:
Around the World in Several Pieces
  • Shorting Prison Without Hiring A Lawyer. 0 comments
    Nov 3, 2012 12:58 AM | about stocks: CXW

    As the news and discussion surrounding the new marijuana legalization efforts begins to sink in, I'm starting to think that there may be a short possible depending on the outcome of the ballot.

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    Regardless of what the real ramifications of said legislation/referendum could be, it is possible that given its long and storied tradition of trading sentiment/emotion, that were marijuana to be legalized in Colorado or Oregon, etc, that this could be the first of many holes to open up concerning the war on marijuana in the United States.

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    From making a crop once good enough to pay one's taxes in it(hemp) illegal, to raiding pseudo-legal marijuana dispensaries, the federalist debate rages on, however, this time it concerns a fragile little plant that people sneakily grow ironically enough quite often on public land(see marijuana being illegally grown in CA national parks etc.)

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    Either way, if these referendums go in favor of legalizing marijuana, it is possible that sooner or later, the slow descent into full legalization could come to pass.

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    Who is this good for, who is this bad for? Well, its good for individual states, due to potential boosts to tax revenue etc, and its good for people who like to recreationally use marijuana. Why is good for the part time dope smoker? Well, because now they won't go to prison for being caught smoking, and or in possession of said interesting plant. Hence, who is this bad for? Clearly, prisons. Hence who do we short? Private prisons!

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    I'm not suggesting anyone short, CXW in the event of a positive referendum for marijuana, because I don't want to end up in solitary confinement forever, if I ever forget to pay a few traffic tickets, however, it would seem like a logical thing to do given its notoriety, and "the streets" tendency to cut down the tallest trees first, whenever some sort of noteworthy piece of information flashes across a Bloomberg terminal.

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    And let us not forget, these referendums results, are by no means written in stone, hence one might want to go long CXW in the case of an anti-marijuana legalization decision vis a vis these referenda.

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    Hence, I hope this piece of reflection, perhaps helps others think about these interesting pieces of potential legislation, and keeps us all from letting any profit from said legislation, "go, up in smoke".

    Stocks: CXW
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