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David Stafford
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Student of markets, enjoys following their course.
My book:
Around the World in Several Pieces
  • A Discussion Of NFL Game Variables 0 comments
    Jan 15, 2014 10:05 AM

    As of recently I've begun thinking about American football. Though it isn't so set-in-stone, I believe that upon reflecting on the matter per se, that I have come to a better understanding, of the nature of Football per se, and more specifically predicting who will win, boiling it down essentially(for average scenarios), to a few key positions that will enlighten the viewer/spectator as to who the ultimate "victor" will/maybe.

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    Before, that's discussed perhaps it might be sage to reflect upon sports betting in general. When I was in high-school, I lived in a large dormitory, with 50 or so other guys. Needless to say, I met a variety of interesting people, and it was an interesting experience all-together. Its not so often perhaps that one gets such an intimate view per se into the habits and tendencies of such a large group of one's fellow people, especially in today's digitally buffered society per se.

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    Either way, one of my former dorm-mates, was an exceptional sports gambler. It was interesting discussing this topic with my former dorm-mate, because though this isn't exactly what this piece is about, they enlightened me, as to the variety of different approaches to sports gambling. Though it may be easier to guess the "winner" of a game per se based on "points", its perhaps a horse-of-a-different-color, to make a wager per se, based on whether quarterback X will make more short passes, than basketball player X will make 3 pointers for example. That was an interesting variety of gambling I had never observed before, and perhaps what was impressive, is how someone under 18 did that from behind a rather intrusive firewall per se, its perhaps another story of "beating the odds" hehe, but perhaps that's a matter which is not so pertinent, which to be honest, I think involved emailing third parties per se, but either way, it was an interesting exposure to a unique perhaps facet of sport-wagering.

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    For football, taking past performance into account, I believe that in so many words the most important area on the field per se, is the area, that's approximately 1 or 2 yards behind the defensive line(from their back foot-extending behind them further), to about 20-30 yards ahead of that aforementioned imaginary line per se.

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    While at less serious levels of football star-players can really change the dynamics of the game in general, at more widely broadcast levels, it may be really a matter of "luck"determined by one key factor.

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    That key factor, perhaps is a juxtaposition imho. Its in so many words, a qualitative understanding of whether or not, the full-back(bigger running back), and tight-end will be capable of completing short catches per se, and if the quarter back is good enough to guide said passes, in a timely manner, hence preventing injury to the pass recipients(as much as possible, by allowing recipient to get in and out of "danger zones" per se, hence extending the longevity of the approach due to the maintained health of the individuals involved, while at the same time allowing the offensive team in question to control the play-clock(short-pass to out-of-bounds), and accrue short yardage, on a repeatable basis.

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    To counter this perhaps, we may have to weigh this offensive cadre's skill per se, in catching/dexterity, etc. against the opposing defenses, outside line-backers similar traits, and the middle line-backers ability to prevent the catching of short passes.

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    If the offense is better suited to making quick short-catches(a la "West coast offense"), then perhaps they are very likely to win, if they are not, then it may be more a field-goal determined free-for-all, most commonly determined by either a rogue long-pass-completion, some other rogue plays, rogue penalties, or fumbles.

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    However, if one thinks of predicting said event, like a long term investment, perhaps if one is on the "correct" side, aka that which barring extraneous variable like those mentioned above, then more often than not, one will be on a net positive position per se, as in choosing the winning team.

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    Not to diminish the team-mates that Jeremy Shockey played with, but I think he is a good example, of how this relatively simple, yet accurate paradigm may be proven at least on average to be correct.

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    For Jeremy Shockey, and some other quick, sure-handed tight-ends per se, have been on several super-bowl winning teams through-out their career, teams which are built upon the juxtapositions mentioned above. Most specifically, the New York Giants, who have seemingly in the past, made an effort, to have a solid line-backer, to prevent short passes, while simultaneously having a decent quick-pass recipient like a sure-handed per se, tight ended to conversely catch short passes. The NY Giants have a relatively decent record over the recent past, and I believe that their coaches grasp of this per se, may be a key reason why.

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    Perhaps an example, of why having somewhat nimble, and decent-catching fullbacks/tight-ends is a tremendous boon, can be seen from teams, that do not have the aforementioned sort of offenses. One will, generally speaking, see them run their fullback on second and third downs per se, into sort of unrealistic expectations of this somehow, being a yardage-positive play. This rarely works, and when a team does this perhaps, it is not exactly that entertaining, nor is it that really a good of an offensive option, and if both teams do this, then perhaps the game will most-likely be a field goal-based game.

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    Hence perhaps to distill it all down, maybe the crux of this whole thing is whether the fullback and tight-end can catch in general, and further whether they will be able to catch short passes against the opposing team per se.

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    Though it may sounds simple, and overlook in a Modiglianian sense, many of the variable mentioned as being "determining factors", in the non-ideal team, I believe that in the long-run, this may perhaps prove to be a somewhat legitimate in some cases, criteria via which to deduce who will win in a specific US football match-up.

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    None the less, maybey others are far beyond this point in sports prediction, like my former dorm-mate, taking into account specific players tendencies per se, but perhaps this may help someone out there at least reflect upon their own theories, or to perhaps predict a few outcomes themselves. Hopefully everyone's investing is going great.

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