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Econ Grapher currently publishes the Econ Grapher blog. He previously worked in markets, trading, investment management, and corporate strategy. He has also set up two internet research businesses in stock research and economic research.
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  • Economic Calendar: China Data and Developed Market Inflation 0 comments
    Jun 12, 2011 12:42 AM | about stocks: FXI, CNY, UUP, EU, GBB, JYN, INR, FXF
     Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 12th of June 2011. This week the main event is China’s monthly data dump, where it will release CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production, new loans, money supply, and fixed asset investment figures.  Speaking of inflation data, the US, UK, and EU all also have inflation data due out this week.  Also, Japan, Switzerland, and India are among the central banks announcing interest rate decisions this week.

    Date

    GMT

    Country/ Currency

    Event

    Forecast

    Previous

    SUN

     

    CNY

    Actual FDI (YoY)

     

    15.20%

    SUN

     

    NZD

    REINZ House Sales (YoY)

     

    -4.20%

    SUN

     

    CNY

    New Yuan Loans

    650.0B

    739.6B

    SUN

     

    CNY

    Money Supply - M0 (YoY)

     

    14.70%

    SUN

     

    CNY

    Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

    13.70%

    12.90%

    SUN

     

    CNY

    Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

    15.50%

    15.30%

    SUN

    23:50

    JPY

    Machine Orders (YoY)

    4.90%

    9.10%

    MON

    08:00

    EUR

    Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY)

    2.00%

    0.80%

    MON

     

    JPY

    Bank of Japan Rate Decision

    0.10%

    0.10%

    MON

    00:01

    CNY

    China Manpower Survey

     

    29.00%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Producer Price Index (YoY)

    6.50%

    6.80%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    5.50%

    5.30%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Retail Sales (YoY)

    17.00%

    17.10%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Retail Sales YTD YoY

    16.90%

    16.50%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Industrial Production (YoY)

    13.10%

    13.40%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Industrial Production YTD YoY

    14.00%

    14.20%

    MON

    02:00

    CNY

    Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY

    25.20%

    25.40%

    TUE

    04:30

    JPY

    Industrial Production (YoY)

     

    -14.00%

    TUE

    08:30

    GBP

    Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    4.50%

    4.50%

    TUE

    08:30

    GBP

    Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    3.50%

    3.70%

    TUE

    08:30

    GBP

    Retail Price Index (YoY)

    5.20%

    5.20%

    TUE

    12:30

    USD

    Producer Price Index (YoY)

    6.60%

    6.80%

    TUE

    12:30

    USD

    Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    2.10%

    2.10%

    TUE

    12:30

    USD

    Advance Retail Sales

    -0.40%

    0.50%

    TUE

    12:30

    USD

    Retail Sales Less Autos

    0.30%

    0.60%

    TUE

    12:30

    USD

    Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas

    0.30%

    0.20%

    WED

    05:30

    EUR

    French Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    2.10%

    2.10%

    WED

    07:15

    CHF

    Producer & Import Prices (YoY)

    -0.10%

    0.10%

    WED

    08:30

    GBP

    Jobless Claims Change

    6.5K

    12.4K

    WED

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

    4.80%

    5.60%

    WED

    12:30

    USD

    Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    3.40%

    3.20%

    WED

    12:30

    USD

    Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    1.40%

    1.30%

    WED

    13:15

    USD

    Industrial Production

    0.20%

    0.00%

    WED

    13:15

    USD

    Capacity Utilization

    77.00%

    76.90%

    WED

    22:00

    NZD

    Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence

     

    97.90

    WED

    02:00

    CNY

    China April Leading Economic Index

     

     

    THU

    07:15

    CHF

    Industrial Production (YoY)

    5.60%

    6.10%

    THU

    07:30

    CHF

    Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

    0.25%

    0.25%

    THU

    08:00

    EUR

    Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    3.00%

    3.00%

    THU

    08:30

    GBP

    Retail Sales (YoY)

    1.50%

    2.80%

    THU

    08:30

    GBP

    Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY)

    1.50%

    2.80%

    THU

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

    1.60%

    1.60%

    THU

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    2.70%

     

    THU

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ)

     

    0.20%

    THU

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)

     

    0.20%

    THU

    12:30

    USD

    Building Permits

    552K

    563K

    THU

    12:30

    USD

    Housing Starts

    545K

    523K

    THU

    12:30

    USD

    Current Account Balance

    -$130.0B

    -$113.3B

    THU

    23:50

    JPY

    BOJ Minutes of May 19-20 Board Meeting

     

     

    FRI

    09:00

    EUR

    Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY)

     

    -4.90%

    FRI

    13:55

    USD

    U. of Michigan Confidence

    74.00

    74.30

     

    As noted the main event this week will be the China data, which is always good to check up on to gauge how the world’s second largest economy is tracking. One of the key indicators to watch will be inflation, i.e. CPI, which is expected to show a slightly higher year on year rate, about 5.8% as property expenses and food prices have been tracking upwards in May. The other data points; industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment should come in more or less flat, but watch for any significant changes or extension of slowing in some of the points.


    Another key data set will be the inflation numbers. The United States is expected to show a slight increase in both headline and core inflation, with year on year CPI inflation expected around 3.4%. The UK is expected to see a slight slowing of its core inflation rate and headline should stay around 4.5%. The Euro Zone will likely see headline inflation stick around 2.7% and core about 1.6%. So, not expecting anything dramatic, but a slight upward tick in inflation.


    In the monetary policy space there’s the Bank of Japan on the 14th of June (expected to hold at 0.10%), Central Bank of Chile on the 14th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 5.00%), Central Bank of Iceland on the 15th of June (expected to hold at 4.25%), Central Bank of Philippines on the 16th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 4.50%), the Reserve Bank of India on the 16th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 7.25%), and The Swiss National bank also on the 16th (expected to hold at 0.25%). Of course there is also a chance the People's Bank of China will do something when the inflation figures come out.


    Elsewhere there’s some key US data points to watch: Producer prices are expected to show little change, retail sales are expected to decline – but post a small gain excluding autos, industrial production may show a small gain, while the UoM confidence index should stay around 74. Outside of the US, Japan has machine orders and industrial production figures, and the Euro Zone has some employment numbers.


    So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

    Sources

    ·         DailyFX

    ·         Forex Pros

    ·         Forex Factory

    ·         Bloomberg

    +various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification



    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Themes: Economic Calendar, Outlook, Economic Data, China, Inflation, Economy, Forex, Global macro Stocks: FXI, CNY, UUP, EU, GBB, JYN, INR, FXF
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