Seeking Alpha

JG Savoldi's  Instablog

JG Savoldi
92 Followers
16 Following
Send Message
J.G. Savoldi is a graduate of Auburn University in Alabama where he majored in Criminal Justice Law. After graduation, Savoldi studied stock market history, Elliott Wave Theory, and everything he could absorb from conversations with market veterans--like fellow Alabama native Jimmy Rogers--and... More
My company:
The BAM Report and BAM Investor.com
My blog:
BAM BLOG
  • The 1929 Stock Market Crash vs Current BAM Model Predictions 7 comments
    Sep 30, 2009 1:14 PM
    The 1929 MARKET CRASH was key in building the BAM Model but what's it telling us about the current stock market? bit.ly/19KeBH

    We depend 100% on our proprietary BAM model but we also try to keep our head up with regard to other interesting ideas.  After all, our model makes some of the most outrageous predictions from time to time--like telling us that crude oil would crash from 147 dollars to 36 dollars over a 12-18 month period back in 2008.

    Here we are again. 

    We're standing out on a limb here with our call for a 50% crash in the stock market over the coming 2-5 months and although we could have held that forecast to ourselves, we'd rather walk the talk by putting ourselves and our money on the line here.

    These are interesting times and although I'd love to be bullish and I'd love to be the guy bringing great news to the table, the model is the most bearish I have ever seen it.  This includes the readings at the all-time high in 2007 and it also includes the 2008 pre-crash readings we were seeing.

    I'll leave the fundamentals up to those who follow that discipline, but the BAM Model, as we saw so many times during 2007 and 2008, is predicting something that most seem unprepared for-- and we're going to follow it predictions.

    -Bearish stocks
    -Bullish Bonds
    -Bearish Crude Oil
    -Bullish USD
    -Bearish Gold

    Disclosure: we have positions reflecting all of these predictions
Back To JG Savoldi's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

This post has 7 comments:

Track new comments on this article
  •  
    It appears your BAM model is now forecasting an almost exact repeat of 2008, just 13-16 months later? I'm intrigued because I am thinking the exact same thing is going to happen as well, and have allocated accordingly with FAZ, USBSX, USAGX and cash. I just think it is going to happen in October based on so many historic "drops" occurring during that month. December would seem to be an odd time for a crash given all the mutual fund distributions/re-inves... It's historically a good month for the market. Does the model take into account any large scale historic events, like currency collapse, war, etc.?
    5 Oct 2009, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Hans Gruber: you allocation makes no sense in relation to BAM's calls: you own a basket of stocks (emerging markets, XOM, MSFT, SPY, etc.), and a basket of gold miners -- BAM is bearish on both. In fact you have it exactly the opposite.
    6 Oct 2009, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  •  
    A 50% correction ??!! - Welcome by all means and I mean it :). I think the markets world over are over-heated and may correct some but by how much is beyond me !!

    I like your confidence and hope you are proven right !!

    Cheers.
    7 Oct 2009, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not disagreeing with your statement DW. I could get hurt bad by all three market investments. However, the basket IS diversified and doesn't include a lot of FAZ, USBSX or USAGX. By the way, USBSX is a hybrid fund that holds bonds, (BAM model bullish on bonds). Basket does include a considerable amount of physical metals in the "cash" department; (BAM model bullish on cash as USD), and gold and silver can drop, but not to zero like Enron.

    Where do you go to protect yourself? Real Estate, nope. Zombie banks, nope. Grrrrrrrr! BAM model no like stocks! BAM model destroy competition! BAM model make Savoldi proud! RRrrrrrahhhhh! Good luck with the BAM model Savoldi; I hope you are right for FAZ's sake........


    On Oct 06 09:17 PM DW Reid wrote:

    > Hans Gruber: you allocation makes no sense in relation to BAM's calls:
    > you own a basket of stocks (emerging markets, XOM, MSFT, SPY, etc.),
    > and a basket of gold miners -- BAM is bearish on both. In fact you
    > have it exactly the opposite.
    8 Oct 2009, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Sadly, basket is not very big.........


    On Oct 08 12:31 AM Hans Gruber wrote:

    > Not disagreeing with your statement DW. I could get hurt bad by all
    > three market investments. However, the basket IS diversified and
    > doesn't include a lot of FAZ, USBSX or USAGX. By the way, USBSX is
    > a hybrid fund that holds bonds, (BAM model bullish on bonds). Basket
    > does include a considerable amount of physical metals in the "cash"
    > department; (BAM model bullish on cash as USD), and gold and silver
    > can drop, but not to zero like Enron.
    >
    > Where do you go to protect yourself? Real Estate, nope. Zombie banks,
    > nope. Grrrrrrrr! BAM model no like stocks! BAM model destroy competition!
    > BAM model make Savoldi proud! RRrrrrrahhhhh! Good luck with the BAM
    > model Savoldi; I hope you are right for FAZ's sake........
    8 Oct 2009, 12:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    First off to the question "where do you go?" One word--at least it's what I'm doing on the long side--WHEAT. Most bullish model I'm tracking currently and margin is low because of bear wipeout.

    We're also in the 30YR Bond and long the USD here but those are all correlated to this "one trade" that the hedge funds have latched on to.

    FAZ, SRS, FXP, DUG longs. Others in BAM Model Portfolio and we require subscriptions for access to that info. Plenty here though for free.

    As to crash question...

    I have three specific crash periods during October so October is a verified disaster in my work. Unfortunately, November and December are also terribly bearish looking. The windows of weakness the model is predicting really do look pretty identical to 2008 EXCEPT December is much more bearish looking this year. We're sticking with SPX 529 target late 2009/early 2010. That's been our target since 2007.

    The model somehow anticipates all of the events you mentioned. It warned prior to all big events since 1920.

    Good luck w/ your investments


    On Oct 05 09:42 PM Hans Gruber wrote:

    > It appears your BAM model is now forecasting an almost exact repeat
    > of 2008, just 13-16 months later? I'm intrigued because I am thinking
    > the exact same thing is going to happen as well, and have allocated
    > accordingly with FAZ, USBSX, USAGX and cash. I just think it is
    > going to happen in October based on so many historic "drops" occurring
    > during that month. December would seem to be an odd time for a crash
    > given all the mutual fund distributions/re-inves... It's historically
    > a good month for the market. Does the model take into account any
    > large scale historic events, like currency collapse, war, etc.?
    9 Oct 2009, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Confidence is strictly in the model not my ability to see the future. I've worked with it long enough to feel comfortable passing along the information it provides. I'd like to see the little guy win for once and if we can help great.


    On Oct 07 12:10 PM Girish K wrote:

    > A 50% correction ??!! - Welcome by all means and I mean it :). I
    > think the markets world over are over-heated and may correct some
    > but by how much is beyond me !!
    >
    > I like your confidence and hope you are proven right !!
    >
    > Cheers.
    9 Oct 2009, 01:29 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • We sold short GMCR yesterday at 74 in our real-time Twitter Full Access Campaign (twitter.com/baminvestor) target is 14.78 (BAM magnet)
    Oct 1, 2009
  • Probably our most controversial call right now is our downside crash target for $JPM. 17.70 is the target based on our BAM magnets
    Sep 27, 2009
  • We're long $FXP $FAZ $SRS $DUG because we're expecting a stock market crash
    Sep 26, 2009
More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
$SPX, Crash, crash, Crude Oil, crude oil, DUG, october, October 2009, stock crash, Stock Market Crash, stock market crash, stock market crash october 2009, US Dollar Index
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.