Since we seem to have attracted more than a few skeptics with regard to our recent posts about the BAM model's 2008 crude oil call, we decided to post the original unedited weekly report here on this blog. All of the unedited 2007-2009 BAM Reports are available for review on our blog at baminvestor.com/blog
The BAM Report
September 15, 2008
Crude Oil Speculative Bubble to be Followed by a Surprising Price Collapse
As crude oil melted up into the 147 level and the talking heads said we were headed for 200-300 dollar per barrel oil, I sent you all a special report telling you that the BAM Crude Oil Model was expecting a total collapse of prices with a first-stop target of 87.75 into September of this year followed by a return to the 36-47 dollar level over the coming 24 months.
To prove that conviction I chose the DUG as my #1 long-side recommendation and told you all that the model expected to see that ETF double in price (from the 38 level) as we trade into the end of 2008/first quarter of 2009.
Crude has now traded down to 90.20 coming less than three dollars from that forecasted target price and although I do see a sharp rally into the 9-18/9-21 period, the first decent lift we see will place crude oil in a position to trigger one of the most vicious sell signals on the board which should create a mind-boggling collapse into year-end.
Deflationary Spiral Followed by “Last-Gasp” Hyper-Inflation
As new data has been generated throughout this trading year, I’m now comfortable passing along information about the coming seven years.
The outlook for price action remains unchanged i.e. a return to the INDU 6565 level followed by a return to the INDU 3971 level, but what has become more clear in my work is a potential timeline for revisiting those price levels.
My work is now suggesting that we will revisit the 6565 level during 2009/2010 (if we don’t crash to 6565 during the Fall of 2008) and that we could revisit the 3971 level as early as 2010!
Original BAM Report bit.ly/Fxx2z