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Seppo Sahrakorpi
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PhD in Computational Physics. Developing new models for stock trading (focusing on long SVXY). Predicting future accurately enough for trading purposes is surprisingly difficult... :) Contrarian investment philosophy. I am in particular interested in undervalued technology stocks with multiple x... More
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  • Forum On The New Nokia - The Future 63 comments
    Sep 5, 2013 10:03 AM | about stocks: NOK

    Discussion 'forum' related to the New Nokia, i.e. Nokia-Siemens Networks (NSN), Location services (Navteq/HERE), IP / Patent portfolio, and Advanced Technologies.

    Past is past, the purpose here is to focus on the future of Nokia, where do we go from here? Nokia is not likely a multi-bagger anymore, but seems to have good upside, how good?

    The previous Forum on D&S is here.

    The previous Forum on NSN, Here, and IP is here.

    Disclosure: I am long NOK.

    Stocks: NOK
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Comments (63)
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  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All Nokia's on-going expertise on manufacturing and selling mobile phones goes to MSFT.

     

    Nokia will only continue developing some far out advanced tech in its Advanced Research / IP division, to be then licensed to Samsung, Apple, MSFT etc.

     

    IMO, Nokia will never again actually build and sell mobile phones. I am confident and really hope that Nokia's BOD is too smart for that. They have been there, done that and know not to go back. Let Apple, Samsung, etc bleed each other to death.
    5 Sep 2013, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The future in a nutshell:

     

    1)
    NSN is steady but boring, marginally profitable but cyclical business.

     

    2)
    The real money maker in the short to mid term could be IP:

     

    Excellent article on SA on Nokia's patents:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Now that Nokia is going to sell D&S to MSFT, Nokia will be finally free to fully license and litigate this goldmine to its full potential :)

     

    WSJ:

     

    Is Nokia about to become a patent troll?

     

    http://wapo.st/160kjAS

     

    3)
    HERE is interesting, Nokia BOD refused to sell it to MSFT, which almost cancelled the whole deal. Eventually they agreed on the 4yr non-exclusive licensing w/ 'owner equivalent' rights to MSFT.

     

    Nokia clearly sees HERE as very important factor to Nokia's future.

     

    My take:

     

    I am staying long $NOK and in fact bought back 10% of my long position yesterday (now again at 70% of my original investment). I do have a stop loss in place :)
    5 Sep 2013, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • La Rue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Seppo for opening up this Forum on the New Nokia :)
    I too am staying long. IMO there is plenty more upside to come our way.
    5 Sep 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1224) | Send Message
     
    Great idea! Thanks Seppo ;-)
    5 Sep 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Charles, it was your great idea after all :)
    5 Sep 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    thanks mate. Much to discuss
    1) stay long or not,
    1a) staying long at what price
    2) the new CEO
    3) the valuation after D&S sale
    4) should NOK go spending with it's new wealth?
    5) diividends to return?
    + much more, I'm sure. thanks for setting it up.
    5 Sep 2013, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @Charles,
    it was only a year ago when you asked for advice on investing....

     

    REMEMBER this ONE thing.....follow the analysts...

     

    Do you think is was a coincidence that all the analysts and even the credit agencies were crapping all over Nokia, even up to the week of the buyout?

     

    Despite what redrut would have you believe, those analysts don't work for you or even his own retail clients. Those analysts get their directives from their 'bosses'. Their sole purpose in life is to get their clients the best possible price on an equity.

     

    So what happens to Simon (GS), Long (http://bit.ly/rCoUnp) and Ferragu (Bernstein)? They recently had $2 price targets on Nokia. They all said 'even break up value won't exceed $2'. Could you smell the crap they spoke of? Even after the MSFT deal, look at what value is left? Almost $20 billion in value. Yet all those analysts said it was only worth $6 billion.

     

    Even the credit agencies crapped on Nokia (Fitches/Moodies). Suddenly today they are now upgrading their ratings on Nokia.

     

    Your job as an investor is to smell the crap. Then have the guts to call them out on it and put your money where your mouth is.

     

    take care
    5 Sep 2013, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • Tasos Galanopoulos
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Spot on Doggie
    5 Sep 2013, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    Good as always to read your thoughts Seppo. I have actually just put 50 k US more into NOK, in addition to the 45 K shares I held at the announcement. The upside is much less now, but I think the path to 10 is just about certain within a year...stay long guys, at least until we get a special dividend plus a newly announced one.
    5 Sep 2013, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    well said Doggie...
    6 Sep 2013, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • solucky
    , contributor
    Comments (13802) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately i invest in Nokia only for the smartphonestory, the other parts was more or less a backup if the smartphone fails.

     

    Most important in my opinion how will they spend the cash ?
    5 Sep 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • SeekingFameandFortune
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    What's interesting though, now that we're learning the real story of what a precarious position Nokia has been in, the phone part was liable to bring the entire company down. More and more I'm seeing this sale was a good thing (from a financial POV).
    5 Sep 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • SeekingFameandFortune
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    Dumped my NOK $2.25 shares on the news, made great $$, but I'm not ashamed to say I'm back in. At least through the Q3 results report and Nov 19 vote. I'm guessing after approval of MS buy-out (because I can't feasibly see this not getting approved) stock will continue short rise and then settle where it should be trading with NSN and HERE only. Also bought on the MS dip.

     

    Downside risk? For some long-odds reason shareholders able to vote down sale = NOK share price falls through the floor...
    5 Sep 2013, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys,
    as most of you know already, I had/have a large investment in Nokia since sub $2.

     

    Firstly, what have I done as far as my position in Nokia?

     

    Liquidated 80% of my holdings. That will cause me to write out another 6 figure tax bill to the IRS. Yikes. Yet, its a good problem to have. The remaining 20% is a free ride on the new Nokia.

     

    Personal opinions on the MSFT/Nokia deal....
    I feel a little cheated. Without a doubt, I thought Nokia would be cruising by $10-12 in 2 more years. Their sales would have easily been pushing 15 million per quarter.
    Emotionally I feel a little down. As I really like the design and craftsmanship of Nokia phones. The thought of having MSFT bully their concepts into a perfectly fine device is dreadful.

     

    The FUTURE of Nokia...
    I see Nokia's share price EASILY going to $8 by the end of Spring.
    Why?

     

    - Patent royalties currently at $600 million annually. Will get boosted by an additional $220 million annually via MSFT's 10 year, $2.2 billion license agreement. Thus, patents earnings will exceed $820 million annually. This amount should increase, as I believe Nokia will expand their efforts to protect their IP portfolio through their new RD & IP division.

     

    - HERE will instantly become profitable this Spring, as now Nokia finally get to realize licensing monies for every WP device that gets sold. Nokia will FINALLY be able to work with other non-Window devices and companies. Look for them to work with Samsung (Tizen) and other device manuafactures (yes even Apple). Just as I saw the D&S divsion being sold to MSFT, I see HERE being spun-off in the form of an IPO. If it does, MSFT may preempt it by making another behind the doors deal. This time, shareholders will shoot down the offer and allow a bidding process to occur.

     

    - NSN did $1.87 billion in free cash flow in 2012. Annual revenues of $16 billion. No longer will NSN have to support the D&S division. A major burden lifted. If margins can be maintained between 7-12%, KABOOM.

     

    This is what I think transpires by next Spring...

     

    1.) MSFT deal gets done
    2.) Nokia's debt is wiped clean, $0
    3.) Nokia's net cash position is sitting around $7-8 billion
    4.) Nokia forecasts an annual EPS of around 50 cents per share OR $1.5 billion in annual profits. Annual EPS break down as follows ($820 million in royalties, $100 million from HERE, NSN $600 million). My NSN estimate is conservative.
    5.) Forecasting that much in EPS AND sitting on $7-8 billion in CASH, will allow Nokia to offer a onetime dividend of 30-50 cents.
    6.) Nokia will start an annual dividend of 24 cents per share.

     

    What next? You may ask why did I liquidate 80% of my holdings if the future is so bright?

     

    Time-Value proposition. Literally when 6 figure windfalls occur overnight, its best to take the money and run. I will keep the other 20% of my Nokia investment until this Spring, when a better financial picture becomes evident. Like I said, I believe Nokia gets to $8 by Spring and after that? Even I don't know :)

     

    PS
    Looking out 4-5 years. I think handset manufactures will not be in the business of making handsets. It will be in the form of wearable mobile compute clothing/accessories. Maybe Nokia's Research department is already ahead of the 'Watch' makers....hmmmm?
    5 Sep 2013, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • solucky
    , contributor
    Comments (13802) | Send Message
     
    Here we will see, but i doubt Nokia will get 40$/ phone. Thats the price the car industry pay so far i know :)

     

    Cash we will see how Nokia use it.
    5 Sep 2013, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @so,
    I believe the execs at Nokia already stated dividends are going to be part of the new Nokia
    5 Sep 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • jamesingram32
    , contributor
    Comments (578) | Send Message
     
    thanks for your comments doggie. I might sell 50% of mine and re buy in the UK, within an ISA. I'm not in your league, volume wise....yet:) ( Hey we all gotta believe, and this year has been great for me).

     

    congratulations on your big pop.I, for one will be following you from now on!

     

    Also, agree on the analysts. I'm staggered that Bernstein are so arrogant they are still cocky this week about their views. Incredible
    8 Sep 2013, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • toonies
    , contributor
    Comments (447) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for opportunity to be here. Today I reduced my stake in NOK shares by 50%. Remaining 50% is going to follow New Nokia.
    I like turnaround stories and Nokia was and is one of them.
    My another " turnaround" significant holding is in AMD. Hope this story will be so succesful as Nokia is or better to be.
    5 Sep 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1224) | Send Message
     
    Seppo, I hope you will continue to keep us updated re the melting short portion :-)

     

    Also an idea for your consideration, in wanting to keep the blog "clean and simple" I wonder if you would mind integrating in the body of the blog a current tab on important debt upgrades, then just posting a comment to say an update's been made. I don't expect it and don't want to add anything on your shoulders, but I'm sure everyone would appreciate and benefit from it. I would be willing, and sure others would be as well, to message you the info for you to add. I just think if important updates are put in the blog itself instead of the comments, it's easier to follow.
    5 Sep 2013, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Charles Santerre
    , contributor
    Comments (1224) | Send Message
     
    A couple of interesting articles on the new Nokia:

     

    Nokia Without Handsets Follows Ericsson in Networks Focus:
    http://bloom.bg/1eg9bn6

     

    Nokia follows path set by Swedish rival:
    http://on.ft.com/1actIpT
    6 Sep 2013, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Dean Bubley in Disruptive Analysis says: “MS has decided against following Oracle down the trend towards "IT-isation of the network" by leaving NSN out of the deal. Wouldn't surprise me to see IBM or HP step up to the plate, though." This has me wondering about the possibility of the remainder of Nokia being acquired as a whole. Is it a reasonable expectation and if so is there a new ‘put' under the stock as the MSFT put. In particular would IBM take the company whole. One of the supposed attractions of Nokia for MSFT was the ability to use pre tax overseas dollars to make the purchase. Other U.S. companies see the same potential benefits of overseas acquisitions of undervalued companies in lieu of repatriating profits subject to taxation and with the benefit of future tax advantage. IBM would seem to fit here due to a large foreign cash position. http://bloom.bg/15dxoXZ . Also, IBM and NSN have already established a relationship announced this year in a mobile edge computing platform http://ibm.co/1ailblk . IBM and Nokia both have positions which could be synergistic in the growing field of customer experience management (CEM) http://bit.ly/15dyJ10 http://ibm.co/15dyx1G . And we know the importance of Nokia's patent portfolio. Well that to would seem an attractive fit for IBM http://ibm.co/15QcqKe . I'm just asking the question. Is Nokia positioned now for a sale of the entire company as a likely outcome.
    9 Sep 2013, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Dean Bubley link: http://bit.ly/17JT7ad
    9 Sep 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Hambly Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting - expecting a lot of volatility in the next few months as they begin announcing their acquisitions with the nice cash pile...
    9 Sep 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Nokia: Best days ahead? http://bit.ly/15OMENo
    10 Sep 2013, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    A look at the future. http://zd.net/16n1V5D
    12 Sep 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • brnichols
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Upside of this stock is tremendous as all analyst upgrades and improved price targets fail to accurately value the patent portfolio and to a lesser extend here & location services.
    Take the most widely quoted valuation; JP Morgan's "Sum of the parts" analysis which can be seen here; http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    They place a value of 5.6 billion euro or $7.4 billion on the patent portfolio and many have called this a "high" estimate but in reality JP (like so may other analysts) is grossly undervaluing this asset. This estimate is based on "the Nortel precedent" which assumes that Nortels price per patent in its 2011 auction was $750,000; however, this is grossly inaccurate if you consider that only 2000 of the 6,000 Nortel patents aquired were still in force ie had any of its 20 year enforceable term remaining, thus the price per enforceable patent paid was approximately 2.25 million. Given its young portfolio, Nokia has about 8,000 enforceable patents in its 10000+ portfolio which would make the portfolio worth 18 billion using the "Nortel precedent." 10.6 billion more than the JP morgan valuation and this is based on sheer volume of patents but if you take into account quality of the patents in each portfolio, Nokia's patents are worth several multiples more than Nortel's. Take a look at my lengthy analysis of Nokia's patent portfolio published last Summer for an idea of just how innovative and novel it is compared to the rest of the tech community.
    Currently, all these analyst upgrades are simply a reaction to the unexpected sale, these analysts have very little clue or desire to accurately value these patents. However, as royalties continue to poor in they will begin to up these estimates, pushing the stock to highs not seen since 2010.
    12 Sep 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Very good article, thanks. Besides the quality and time factors, do you think the litigation climate remains favorable. For example , it seems the German courts can be unsympathetic to patent claims.
    12 Sep 2013, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2677) | Send Message
     
    German Courts just made one phone maker not only stop selling, but to recall their phones and destroy them I have been searching for 5 days for the reference, but failed to find the article. Maybe someone else here saw it?
    I believe it was either on Bloomberg, or theregister.co.uk
    20 Sep 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    What's next ? http://bit.ly/18CiSLR
    19 Sep 2013, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Purchase. No other options. http://bit.ly/18CjLUT
    19 Sep 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Q: Is there a New Nokia/ Jolla/ Android mash-up future possibility ?
    19 Sep 2013, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Jolla/Sailfish/Android http://zd.net/1fcWFVN
    19 Sep 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2677) | Send Message
     
    Paulos has his own valuation on the New Nokia which neglects to value the IP segment. his take is $6.56 is full valuation atm
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Sep 2013, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    On crowd- sourcing maps http://bit.ly/1a3PIEd
    20 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    This is what Mapbox is doing. HERE take note. http://bit.ly/17C71Z6
    20 Oct 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2677) | Send Message
     
    Latest news on Nokia unloading the India tax issue.
    http://bloom.bg/1btAzMG
    Looks like they are going to stop fighting the taxman and just leave India. If they can't get the Indian Tax authority to release it for sale to MSFT, I believe they will have to just turn out the lights and leave. They really don't have a use for the plant, and unless someone buys it, what else can they do?
    10 Dec 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • ewmpsi
    , contributor
    Comments (1697) | Send Message
     
    Houses Passes "Anti-Troll" Innovation Act With Pro-Apple, Microsoft Edits http://bit.ly/1glIZdA

     

    ******
    This is a very good article that helps parse the real problems from the fake ones!

     

    This is clearly a strike against those that do nothing but litigate and not those who protect their investments into brain trusts. So for those writing and pontificating about MSFT and NOK having their library of patents devalued because of these forthcoming changes, once again that camp will remain disappointed and incorrect.
    ***********************
    10 Dec 2013, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2677) | Send Message
     
    Agreed ewmpsi. As with most legislation here in the US, the influence of money is apparent in the bill, but that is not the end of the story.

     

    Eventually some case will push this up to the Supreme Court, who cannot be bought like legislators. Here in the US, members of the High Court are appointed for life, and can only be removed by impeachment, so they never have to raise "Campaign Funds" nor can they.
    When it reaches that point, the sensible provisions like "making your case when you file (rather than just sending threatening emails)" will stand. Companies that exist only to buy blocks of ambiguous patents and sue will largely become unprofitable, as they will have to hire both the lawyers "up front" to be very specific in their filings, and researchers to understand the patent. This will mean that the target company will know right at the start what they will have to defend against. As for a small company that invents something and has to defend it's rights, they already know the product, and often lawyers will take such cases on on a % of winnings basis. I'm not worried about Universities defending their inventions, as most have Law School departments as well as research.

     

    Companies like Nokia, that do actual research will be unimpeded in enforcing their inventions, as having designed the invention, they know it intimately enough to file with precision. The Trolls on the other hand, don't know really what they have, so will have to do huge R&D before even filing.
    Nokia knows it's own patents, and there can never be a requirement that a company build it's invention, as that is counter to our culture of Pure Research going back to long before Edison's inventions. If you recall, he only built a few of the gadgets his research company invented. Most he sold or licensed out.
    11 Dec 2013, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1iEKfpX This is an interview with M. Son of SoftBank and Sprint regarding potential merger with T-Mobile (which would certainly be to NSN benefit based on existing relationships).
    “ Similarly both are improving their networks but neither is making the kind of massive investment Son is suggesting he will make if a deal between the two companies is allowed."
    13 Mar 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • OldWarrior
    , contributor
    Comments (2677) | Send Message
     
    Softbank has been trying to find ways to make huge investments in "the west". They seem to have a massive budget for investment, so much so that it makes me want to do some DD to see where the money is coming from and why. If they are Legit, NSN should ride their money unless Softbank puts too many restrictions, meaning interfering with NSN's historical profit making HQ.
    13 Mar 2014, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    In regards to the possibility of a company using offshore cash in a HERE acquisition , this is a list of the top ones : http://bit.ly/1iN5zxf
    4 May 2014, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • La Rue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Would love to see a bidding war......
    4 May 2014, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    OpenStreetMap and Telenav http://bit.ly/1gIFyiN ...what the competition is doing .
    19 May 2014, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1pkxdS4 Two technology areas that are of current and supposed future interest of Nokia are location services and ‘the Internet of things'. In this article you can get a glimpse of where things are heading,theoretically, in research by defense agencies and others.
    23 May 2014, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • La Rue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Great read, thanks for the link. HERE we go twogo :)
    23 May 2014, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • ewmpsi
    , contributor
    Comments (1697) | Send Message
     
    Also posted on another thread:

     

    Nokia in talks with Microsoft to keep controversy-ridden Chennai unit running
    http://bit.ly/1kyyIf2

     

    Amid uncertainty over the fate of its controversy-ridden Chennai plant, Finnish telecom major Nokia has said it has been in talks with Microsoft — the new owner of its erstwhile devices and services business — to keep the plant up and running.

     

    A Nokia spokesperson told FE: “Due to the liens set on the Chennai factory and the uncertain environment, Nokia in discussion with Microsoft continuously assesses volume requirements and plans production accordingly.”

     

    When asked how Nokia plans to run the Chennai plant with a few hundred workers, the spokesperson further said: “On the basis of recent developments, production capacity has been aligned and we remain confident of delivering it to Microsoft. Our intention remains to keep the factory operational and deliver against our services agreement.”

     

    ****************

     

    Perhaps with the new potential pro business goverment changes forthcoming maybe this could find a happier solution.

     

    ***************

     

    India's pro-business Modi storms to historic election win
    http://reut.rs/1jBCnDW
    24 May 2014, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    I left this comment in response to http://bit.ly/UIVQ0D

     

    Thomas • a day ago
    Eliminating lower margins and loss of market share can be two sides of the same coin. I'll take quality over quantity and put my faith in Suri to get it right as he obviously has as former head of Networks and now the entire company. From buying out Siemens to becoming the major foreign Network player in China he and Nokia are making the right moves. Their relationship with SoftBank bodes well for future business in the U.S. via Sprint and possibly T- Mobile. They are ranked a top tier Networking company with a leading 4G LTE patent portfolio. They have the cash to make strategic acquisitions which in fact they are doing to enhance their organic innovation both which keep them on the leading edge of networking technology. How they are more challenged than competitors is beyond me. Anyone who has listened to Suri speak on the future of the company would never reach that conclusion. As for patents they have a new executive in charge via Dolby who will be sure to leverage their portfolio to it's full potential particularly now that with the divestiture of Devices they are free of cross licensing constraints with the additional potential of licensing formerly proprietary technology to former competitors. Their guidance toward the top end or better on margins seems well considered.
    30 Jul 2014, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • La Rue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    Great points worthy of an article twogo :)
    30 Jul 2014, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    Remember the recent NICE 3D modeling technology acquisition . http://bit.ly/1poYMMf Ironically another company from Finland has entered the same space (Cyberlighting) “To Bring 3D Interface To Industrial ‘Internet Of Things’ Monitoring" http://bit.ly/1nLrZvM
    12 Aug 2014, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • twogo
    , contributor
    Comments (128) | Send Message
     
    In light of all the new speculation of an Apple iCAR I can't help but think (yet again) that a HERE acquisition could make so much sense. Synergies galore. And Nokia integrated 5G non latency and secure capabilities in the works for IoT and machine to machine. And all that overseas Apple cash looking for a home....note: I have been out of NOK for a while but follow it on Seeking Alpha and Twitter.
    19 Feb 2015, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nice idea. And we might even get a bidding war between Microsoft and Apple for HERE :)
    19 Feb 2015, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    I think we would all be happy to see HERE sold off, especially as the market values it at practically nothing. However, I want 20 billion for it!
    19 Feb 2015, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    hey guys,
    why is it when I say Nokia should spin off and IPO HERE everyone says its a bad idea. But when you guys say they should, its a great idea?

     

    As it stands currently, HERE is valued at $0. Investors don't know anything about HERE. Nor do consumers. The only way to get a fair market value for HERE is to let the markets determine that via an auction (IPO or public sale).

     

    However, for some strange reason, existing Nokia share holders vehemently oppose any idea of selling/IPOing HERE.

     

    Strange.
    19 Feb 2015, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Seppo Sahrakorpi
    , contributor
    Comments (2146) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Old dog gets no respect :)

     

    Perhaps some of us are belatedly also starting to get tired with HERE, and its seemingly quite long long term prospects...
    19 Feb 2015, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    another thing, just remember that Elop and MSFT wanted HERE thrown into the devices acquisition for a few million more. Wasn't that thoughtful of them. Also, there are certain execs that CURRENTLY work at Nokia that wanted that to occur. Think about that! They wanted to STEAL HERE from existing share holders.
    19 Feb 2015, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    Doggie,
    it is because the market will value it for very little until they start making a lot of money. A specific company, however, may pay 10 billion or more because it is a unique fit to their plans. '

     

    The reality is I think they will have to make in operating profit a billion or more a year before we get the numbers we would like. In the meantime, it is making money (probably 150-200 million in 2015), so we can be patient with it.
    19 Feb 2015, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @Tim,
    if you IPO HERE, ownership does not leave YOUR hands. You get shares of the spin off. Thus, it affords YOU the ability to buy more shares of HERE (if its not valued anything) or affords you the ability to sell you shares. Keeping HERE private enables:

     

    - Massive executive salaries and bonuses
    - Endless engineering experiments with no consequences from the Mother land (Networking folks)
    - Restricts visibility from a consumer and business perspective
    - Sweetheart deals between execs and other private entities to STEAL HERE from their rightful owner... the Nokia Shareholder

     

    For some strange reason, you prefer to tie your hands behind your back and allow your HERE investment to perpetually lolly gag in Neverland.

     

    It's almost going on a decade since Nokia bought HERE for $8 BILLION. Where's the BEEF!!!???? Where are the results??!?!?!? Where's the accountability!?!?!?!?

     

    Can you spell zilch?
    19 Feb 2015, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    doggie,

     

    I get it, you think an IPO will unlock value that does not exist in the share price. It will not happen like that until the market is seen to appreciate the potential of the division, which will not happen for a year or two with growing profits. It was not until recently that Suri booted the CEO and focused HERE on enterprise, and actually forecasted margins for a whole year of 7-12%.
    19 Feb 2015, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @Tim,
    "It will not happen like that until the market is seen to appreciate the potential of the division, which will not happen for a year or two with growing profits."

     

    Can you name me a single tech power house, that IPO'ed when it was EPS positive? Google? Nope. Amazon? Nope. Facebook? Nope. Twitter? Nope.

     

    99.9% of all IPO's go public to leverage investor equity to spur more growth. Growth that could not occur without an infusion of investor cash.

     

    At the moment, there is ZERO valuation in HERE. take it or leave it.

     

    I can think of dozens of reasons to IPO HERE.
    I cannot think of a single reason to keep it private, can you?
    19 Feb 2015, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @tim,
    "until the market is seen to appreciate the potential of the division"

     

    what market are you talking about? What is the litmus test to determine HERE is valued at all? The market you talk about is some nebulous gobbly gook that only exists in Neverland
    19 Feb 2015, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • doggiecool
    , contributor
    Comments (4911) | Send Message
     
    @tim,
    "It was not until recently that Suri booted the CEO and focused HERE on enterprise, and actually forecasted margins for a whole year of 7-12%."

     

    The only reason HERE is forecasting 7-12% is because they have MSFT finally paying them a license fee for HERE
    19 Feb 2015, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Timothy Bryan
    , contributor
    Comments (984) | Send Message
     
    Doggie,

     

    You can raise objections all day about its lack of attention, but the truth is until THIS quarter they have not had guidance for growth and margins. Every other IPO you mention had mindshare in the public, along with a substantial initial expectation of value and potential.

     

    I think HERE has immense potential, but that is not the Market's current feeling toward it.

     

    Of course, if they can sell it for 10+ billion because if it fits into another behemoth's plans, we would both be happy....
    19 Feb 2015, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • La Rue
    , contributor
    Comments (900) | Send Message
     
    I know I would be :)
    19 Feb 2015, 05:55 PM Reply Like
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