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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, September 6, 2012 295 comments
    Sep 6, 2012 8:45 AM

    Lynas has its TOL at last, and now we will see what they can do with it...

    MCP has new funding byzantine in its complexity, and now we will see what they can do with it...

    GWM has yet to really do much with its new funding, but longs have high hopes of good news soon...

    China is close to completing construction of its REE/Strat. Cartel, along with its pet commodity exchange in Inner Mongolia...

    And the band plays on!

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  • Yep the band keeps playing, fortunately its not TAP's.
    6 Sep 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYSDY is tracking about where I expected today, LYSCF just a tad higher...


    We might see an assault (particularly on LYSDY which is more vulnerable than LYSCF due to lower volume) mounted to protect short positions which actually exist in ASX. Relatively small quantities sold here can setup a drop in price which will influence the open in Sydney.


    Foster Brokers has belatedly recanted its recent prediciton of $.25 for Lynas shares... LOL. As I recall they were telling their customers to short Lynas and go long MCP...


    Morgan Stanley is my #1 suspect for short activity in Sydney, btw, either directly or by loaning shares to others to be shorted. We might be seeing another quarterly report of their transactions soon, which should appear on the LYC announcement page on the ASX...
    6 Sep 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • I bought a little LYSDY on July 17th at 88¢ and now after It's been de-risked, it's 2¢ cheaper -- amazing. At least, instead of concern, I am just content to ride it out. I wonder when this will turn around.
    6 Sep 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Did you double down @ $.6X
    6 Sep 2012, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • Yeah, I made another couple of purchases as the price continued to sink, but I'll be underwater for a while the way things are going. Again, not much of a worry. Lynas is still a bargain.
    6 Sep 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Our situations are very similar it would seem. Have a great week end.
    7 Sep 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Bought 20K @$.58 which I will hold for long term.
    6 Sep 2012, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • A Recent vid of N. Curtis of Lynas Corp on CNBC

    6 Sep 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm, is it lin-us or lie-nus?


    No matter, a good interview.
    6 Sep 2012, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Any opinions on what's a good price / entry to buy more Lynas, now that they have the TOL?
    7 Sep 2012, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Perhaps others will have a more specific answer to your question, jimp, but here are my thoughts FWIW (bear in mind my position in Lynas is mostly full and I am holding it as a long term spec hold):


    1) IMHO I suspect that the 80cent range is creating a pps floor in the near term.


    2) The variables I will be watching for more potential upside OR downside on pps include:


    * new surprises associated with litigation involving Stop Lynas group (who may try even more desperate acts as the rare earth shipments begin to arrive in Malaysia from Australia); Also I believe there is still part of the defamation suit being heard on 9/26;


    * dilution effect from any new capital funding needs/structures;


    * unexpected operational issues in production start-up next month;


    * outcome of elections to take place before March 2013 (Malaysia’s political opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, said he would scrap the Lynas facility should his party coalition win);


    * Overt OR covert operations by China (on REE supply or price) since they cannot be pleased with the granting of the Lynas TOL;


    * General rare earth supply/demand dynamics as the world tangos with central bank stimuli vs. recessionary trends.


    Yes that sounds like a lot of risk -- and some of those factors may account for the cap on the current price pop -- but nothing great was ever achieved without great risk and the Lynas business model and management team still has my long-term conviction. I'll let you know if my POV changes along the way!


    7 Sep 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • Plus we will have to see if "two pending judicial review cases on the board's decision regarding the license" turn out to be positive according to this article. I get the sense that they will be.
    7 Sep 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Great risk assessment Mercy!
    I think that is the right way to present risk. All I can add is a bull case I wrote last night:
    7 Sep 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Well, Chi, you and others on this Concentrator taught me well. Thanks to all. And enjoyed your article.
    7 Sep 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Chihawk: Greetings. Enjoyed the article. Have a great week end all.
    7 Sep 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Excellent points MJ. Thank you
    7 Sep 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Additional process requirements for Lynas to start production:


    "Lynas Corporation Ltd (Lynas) still has to submit an application before starting its experimental production of rare earth concentrates even after having acquired the temporary operating license from the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB).


    AELB director-general Datuk Raja Abdul Aziz Raja Adnan said the application should be submitted even if the experimental run would not involve any items containing radioactive materials.


    Every operation at the Lynas plant must be reported and approved, we will monitor all activities that occur in the plant," he said in a media briefing here today."

    7 Sep 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Any opinions or thoughts on when the Crown deposit will figure back into Lynas' grand plan? I'm sure it's very much on the back burner, and it could even be too costly to develop.
    8 Sep 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I don't see it being a costly development, just one that revolves around the niobium. True, there are other valuable minerals, but the seperate Crown case would be for the niobium.


    It could also be that the Duncan and Crown deposit development plans overlap - look at how SilMet operated, refining both rare earths and niobium to survive until MCP came along. It would be possible to include capture of niobium (and perhaps even titanium and tantalum, though this speculation exceeds my personal knowledge) in the planned WA Duncan Plant.


    As I recall when I studied the Crown deposit early on, its niobium deposit is the second richest and largest known to exist (Brazil has the largest). With significant by products of titanium, tantalum, and I believe some rare earths, it might be a potential part of the Duncan effort, or perhaps represent a future add-on line for any eventual augmentation to the Duncan plant (ie, Phase 2 - Lynas seems to like to phase in their mining efforts in this fashion).
    8 Sep 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • I had thought the same about Crown and Duncan eventually being processed in South Australia in a Silmet like plant. The problem is the metallurgy reports on Duncan do not support that read IMO. Rather, at this point I wonder about a JV facility in South Australia that could serve rare earth metals from similar resources to Crown.
    Maybe I am reading too much into these Duncan reports, but they suggest a separation that seems different than the other projects to me. If that is right Duncan is certainly large enough on it's own. But I don't see how the chemical treatment of Duncan ore will be the best approach towards the Crown deposit. Page7:
    Preliminary bench top test-work conducted for the scoping study achieved a recovery of approximately 84% for non-cerium rare earths to mixed rare earth chloride by direct chemical treatment of the ore.
    That chemical treatment should be fairly ore specific and is likely not cost effective for Crown IMO. DYOR and I'm not a geologist no matter how much I geek on this stuff.
    9 Sep 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Its all just speculation at this point. My research which may apply to this topic was done when GWM started flirting with the local T miners whose waste contains high levels of rare earths. I ran across several mentions of the ability to add rare earth processing to their T processing lines, but that the cost/benefit equation was iffy once you had your T lines built... What results, imo, is the question (not the projection), would it behoove Lynas to include a T line (or Niobium line) to the new Duncan facility? Sometimes these relationships are one-way (ie, it makes sense to add rare earth recovery to a large T operation, but does not make sense to add T recovery to a large rare earth operation), and its beyond my level of expertise to venture more than a low order guess or to bring the question up.


    I agree that Duncan does not need the additional business to make its bones...


    One has to wonder what NC had planned when he wanted to sell Crown to his other project, Forge. I have always believed that he planned to build a seperate Forge plant adjacent to the Duncan plant (perhaps literally so, so material handling could be simple) and start running their waste and Crown ore under a jv at the Mount Weld site. With a seperate Crown plant, one synergistic outcome could have been that they could sell their waste (containing high levels of rare earths) back to Lynas for processing.


    The last I heard from the SA titanium miners was that they were keeping their REE cards close to their vest, but none of them had pulled the trigger and started construction on a REE line yet at any of their T plants.
    9 Sep 2012, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • TB:" I have always believed that he planned to build a separate Forge plant adjacent to the Duncan plant (perhaps literally so, so material handling could be simple) and start running their waste and Crown ore under a jv at the Mount Weld site. With a separate Crown plant, one synergistic outcome could have been that they could sell their waste (containing high levels of rare earths) back to Lynas for processing."


    I read a similar explanation and heard from a large Aussie investor that your description was in fact the Forge plan. What is very clear from the Crown issue last year is that the resource is very valuable. The odd thing is LYC as a share price was hurt by the confidence lost in NC and no analyst includes Crown in there NPV calculations. So does that mean LYC would pop if NC left? I don't know.


    But as a Lynas holder, I always think of the zero value by analysts for Crown whenever I see a junior pop on a nice drill. It's almost like social graces to NC require analysts to give no value to Crown. No worries for me I guess. I mean I intend to hold and add as an investor for a while into the future still. But the information is real and the failure to discuss it is neglect and a hit to credibility on those analysts IMO.
    9 Sep 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Agreed. Lynas is a junior explorer wrapped in a junior wrapped in a startup producer wrapped in a major industrial company. Like one of those cunning Russian nesting wood figurine sets...


    Valuation by the xperts and analists depends on which portion of the Lynas elephant they perceive (or more likely, decide to include).


    NC and his role as target (and with much cause, imo) and untrustworthy CEO-figure is undeniable by this time. I believe we would indeed see a potential boost in share value with his departure.
    9 Sep 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • A matryoshka! We've got them all over the house. :-)
    But the analysts should evaluate the whole company rather than ignoring the future earnings the rest of the nesting dolls will surely bring in the future. And in fact normal mining evaluations value by-products and side projects routinely. If the analysts say the vertical integration beyond LAMP remains too uncertain I would understand that. But we are attaching values to far more speculative drills in other companies. Crown is JORC compliant with detailed information and tested for years. Ignoring it's value is neglect at this stage.


    As for NC, there have been obvious mistakes. But other than maybe Chambers, I do not see better in the REE space. Smith has driven Moly under the IPO price and for very good reason; Engdahl is loved by Stockhouse and no rational thinking mind; most of the others are not getting funded; and NC while powerless to Malaysia might be able to say he focused on Duncan and LAMP phase two during the frustrating Malaysian wait. I'm not sure the price would go up if NC left (especially at this stage in the Lynas development) but the pro's and con's are clear at this point.
    9 Sep 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sydney Herald reports on latest Stop Lynas threats to blockade the port of Kuantan when Lynas' first shipment attempts delivery:
    9 Sep 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy: I had a hunch this saga wasn't yet ended. This has the potential to get ugly for all parties: Lynas, the protestors, police, pols, ...


    9 Sep 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • Yes HTL -- and I suspect Chinese interests will find creative ways to support the potential scuffles.
    9 Sep 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • At least for now the Australians were not swayed by all of the opposition threat headlines. Last night over 41 million shares traded hands on the ASX and Lynas ended up close to 2% -- $0.835AUD
    10 Sep 2012, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • I think Lynas bulls would site the appeal dismissal last night as confirmation from the court that Malaysia is moving forward with the TOL.


    Bears would call that irrational exuberance and remind us that the Malaysian government is so weak on leadership it's bureaucrats often wet themselves before committing to go to toilet.


    Both have a point so I think that explains the current narrow range on Lynas. Mercy's event list above should give us a clearer picture of TOL confirmation or more lack of direction from Malaysian leadership. IMO, LAMP is moving forward. DYOR
    10 Sep 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Ree in India:


    11 Sep 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Oy, Gee: Greetings. Thanks for the links.
    13 Sep 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • (HREEF): Trading opportunity ... if you want to risk effects of politics and corruption?


    "Stans Energy Reports Temporary Work Stoppage at Kutessay II"



    Down to $0.305 currently. If it gets resolved (someday), looks like at least 30% upside.


    11 Sep 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Its just too risky, imo, HTL. I believe they are going to lose the stare down with the government. They are dealing with a looterocracy, and the bad guys have all the guns. Its also obvious that nobody stayed bought...


    What we don't know is the % the government was asking for. HREEF obviously thought it was too much and tried to setup a negotiation, but that approach did not work. I doubt their Canadian front will hold up, either.


    Best case its just some hurt feelings or cultural mismatch involved, but it looks more serious than that...
    11 Sep 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • T(h)anks! :-))


    11 Sep 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Totally agree TB. This part of the world has always been this way. The government will control things. A local oligarch might take Stans over for nothing. But even if HREEF were unjustly destroyed in violation of the law, what would that do to the Kygyzstan reputation? Nothing.
    This power grab is not new to the government or region. I see it as a death spiral based on history. Stans Energy is a better short than long and I bet you can't find a broker willing to lend a share. The search might speak volumes about the circumstances.
    11 Sep 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • Jim really steps down....




    September 12, 2012 - Saskatoon, Canada: Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company", TSX:V – GWG) today announced that President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Engdahl will retire as of October 1, 2012. Robert Quinn, who serves on the GWMG Board of Directors, has been appointed Interim President and Chief Executive Officer effective October 1, 2012.


    Earlier in 2012 (see: GWMG news release March 16, 2012), the Company announced that Jim Engdahl had recommended to the Board of Directors that a transition process be put in place to recruit and select a new CEO and that the Board had accepted that recommendation.


    The CEO recruitment process has been guided by a search committee consisting of GWMG Board members Robert Quinn, Bill McKnight, George Ireland and Ian McNaughton. Strong candidates, with a successful history of leading integrated companies in complex industries, have been identified.


    In order to move the selection process to the next phase, GWMG has contracted Korn/Ferry International, a global executive recruitment agency with 80 offices in 40 countries, and which has conducted in excess of 10,000 senior-level searches worldwide.


    Robert Quinn has served on the Board of Directors of GWMG since 2006 and is completely conversant with GWMG operations and strategic development issues. He has over thirty years of management and legal experience in the mining sector with extensive experience in transactions, financings, corporate governance, environmental compliance and international operations. Mr. Quinn serves on the boards of directors of North American Palladium Ltd., Formation Metals Inc. and Mercator Minerals Ltd. where he is the chairman. He holds a Doctor of Jurisprudence from the University of Denver.


    Jim Engdahl said, "The transition process that we have established will serve the interests of the Company and its shareholders very well. Given my own health issues, it is advisable that I take a step back at this time. We are very fortunate to have someone as qualified and knowledgeable as Robert Quinn to guide the Company through the CEO selection and transition process while GWMG continues to execute its plan to be a fully integrated rare earth producer. I remain available to assist in any capacity required."
    12 Sep 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Not a good development, really. JE is a wildcatting junior explorer at heart, and it is definitely time for someone geared to running a multinational industrial concern was tapped for the CEO slot...


    And Quinn is indeed just a temp.


    We can only hope that they find a permanent solution quickly.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • TB, I think is good development. It is about freaking time that they get serious and hire a search firm. Sorry that he has health problems but they have handled the transition poorly, imo. So better to get on with it than drag it out.
    12 Sep 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I of course agree that they have handled the transition poorly (a rule of thumb for this would be occasions when the announcement includes the retirement AND the first notice that they have hired a search firm after months of waiting). This is what I view as "Not good...".


    The fact that they are finally getting serious IS a good thing, I just see it as overruled by the other gauge.


    I believe they have already dragged it out, unfortunately, and that is another reason I view this announcement as confirmation that the Board has fumbled this important issue.


    Now we have to hope that Engdahl can hold things together for the next month or so.


    I would not be surprised to see this announcement result in a positive impact on the share price, short term, however. JE's departure has been eagerly anticipated in some quarters. I believe some potential investors have been waiting for this signal to enter the stock.
    12 Sep 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • I'm with TB for several reasons....
    First, GW has been looking for six months only to conclude they need Korn/Ferry International. In other words, they failed to do it on their own and either no one internally wants the job beyond a temporary basis or they can't get the confidence of the Board beyond that level.


    Second, the process has been very quiet and even with the drills and financing we get this stop gap? Even a neutral person can see the indecision and absence of direction here.


    Third, At the same time these guys have a massive convertible with an 8% interest rate. Time is not their friend. I can't see how this approach suggests the company is keeping to all of their deadlines.


    Fourth, how can we conclude that GQD is moving forward with all of this indecision at the top? Nothing appears to be going on with GQD and this development suggests the potential for delay on the subject is large.


    Fifth, the actual announcement is worded much clearer than the last several announcements with vagueness and wishful inferences IMO. I think it shows these guys can be clear when they want to be and chose vagueness when it suits them.


    Good luck with this thing.
    12 Sep 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • The announcement doesn't state when they hired the recruitment firm. What makes you think they waited 6 months to do that?
    (Responding to Chi's: "First, GW has been looking for six months only to conclude they need Korn/Ferry International.")
    12 Sep 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • OG,
    I drew that assumption from the separation of the paragraphs. I suppose Korn/Ferry could have been on the search and was not previously mentioned. But if I go with that assumption I wonder why they wrote anything beyond "We hired a temp CEO to replace Engdahl who is stepping down..."
    12 Sep 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Any doubt about the rumors that Mitsubishi (via Morgan Stanley, primarily, and lending shares) has been involved in massive shorting invovling millions of shares of Lynas can be put to rest:

    14 Sep 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lynas Annual Meeting is set for Nov 20 in Sydney:

    14 Sep 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Pinks on the American exchange continues to lead ASX, with Lynas showing strength again this morning...


    MCP common is closing in on the $13.49 point identified earlier as a potential inflection point for shorts...


    MCP-A is over $47 and I believe will close over $48, as those who were buying under $40 see nice gains. Occasional larger investors taking profits are to be expected (which we see from time to time recently, particularly noticeable when the common is going up but the preferred shows a loss for the day).


    GWM is showing strength in the wake of the announcement of the departure of J. Engdahl...


    Strong depreciation of the $ is involved as commodities traded in dollars show numeric gains from this factor...
    14 Sep 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • It's a prime time to buy any of the stocks in the metals sector we've been advocating in this blog. The entire sector looks ready to advance upwards.
    14 Sep 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • long detailed comment by Jack Lifton regarding news note that Ford is cutting use of rare earths in hybrids
    14 Sep 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Its a numbers game. Going forward it is anticipated that the market penetration for hybrids will mushroom, but due to the current iffy supply chain for rare earth metals, all the manufacturers are coming up with backup positions if their rare earth sources dry up. This is only logical, and there has never been any doubt that it is possible to build hybrids using less rare earth content...


    But lets return to the " penetration for hyribds will mushroom..." part.


    The math is interesting. If the current crop of hybrids averages 20kg per car of rare earths, and this can be cut by 30%, then the future market for rare earths goes down 30%, right?




    Right now hybrids and EVs are about 3% of the total car market. In the future they will become much more common, and their market percentage will be more like 30%. Which means that even as you see a reduction in the rare earths used in each individual car, the total number of cars (10x) will still represent a massive increase in general demand.


    We also have not seen the effects to be expected as the supplies for rare earths become once again plentiful and reliable, which can be expected as the sources shift from a single monopoly point (China) to where the other 70+% of the world's rare earth deposits occur (ROW, rest of world). Current prices (vs the 2011 spike prices which were patently unsustainable and which birthed many of the policy reactions we see from auto manufacturers) are low enough to allow current product lines to be built and thrive, but prices MUST be mated with reliability to allow manufacturers to plan long leadtime products.


    GWM, Lynas and MCP are well-positioned to form the first wave of reliable ex-China suppliers.
    14 Sep 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • "the total number of cars (10x) will still represent a massive increase in general demand"


    That number is likely *way* to low. Growth in emerging markets where wealth is *actually* being created and lifting the masses ATM, means the size of the market should grow substantially. So 30% of that future market is likely to be much higher than 10x - I would think in 10 years it would be more like 13x - 15x.


    What percentage would impact REE usage is unknown, of course, as different markets will have different price points and efficiency demands.


    But ISTM that we'd still see a substantial increase from today's levels in raw tonnage.


    14 Sep 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
    14 Sep 2012, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rare earths:
    China aims at Japan's economy in island protests.
    16 Sep 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes. The flip side of the geopolitical conflict. When Lynas needs funding, it will be available at good terms...
    17 Sep 2012, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Why is great western up 10%?
    17 Sep 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • O.G.: A leak? This A.M. we get ...


    (GWMGF): "Great Western Minerals Group Reports Additional High Grade Assay Results and Drilling Update from Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Project"



    18 Sep 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » As good an explanation as I've yet seen, HTL.
    18 Sep 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • A reduction of labor tensions elsewhere in the country ought to help support the miners doing business there, including Great Western.
    18 Sep 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • GWMGF is the first of the big three (MCP and LYSCF) to return to green for the year.


    However, UCOR is trouncing them all.
    18 Sep 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Lifton's latest:


    Where Are The Non-Chinese Heavy Rare Earths Going To Come From And Who’s Going To Buy Them?
    18 Sep 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like


    The Astounding Rise of Western Rare Earth Extraction: Jack Lifton
    18 Sep 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    New home for RareEarthBlog. I could not get the Register button to work, but I believe its just an issue with the new site.
    19 Sep 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Some activity with UAMY. A negative SA article and then a positive company announcement has caused the price to jump around a bit.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas is down over 7% today.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The jump yesterday was quixotic to me, on overall down news for the REE sector. The $.91 range seems more solid, until the inevitable series of production news starts, then it becomes more "real".


    I still expect the stock to creep upward to $1 and beyond, but it will take time and the ticking off of milestones, first feed, meeting customer cert, first shipment of finished goods, meeting early AELB requirements, etc.
    20 Sep 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • "Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) is pleased to announce a significant upgrade of the Ore Reserves at Mount Weld ... In announcing the latest Ore Reserves, Lynas Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, said "the upgraded Ore Reserves confirm Mount Weld's status as one of the richest rare earths deposits in the world. Mount Weld Ore Reserves now support our current production plans for more than 25 years. With the Temporary Operating Licence for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant now in hand we look forward to supplying these critical rare earths products to our customers for many years to come".
    20 Sep 2012, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • OK you ree geeks, what's in the brew in the upgraded ore reserves? Any HREEs? Got chemistry?
    20 Sep 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Does anyone ever hear what Lynas will do with the oversupply of Ce and La that the HREE fanatics assume Lynas will have after production? No.


    The reason we do not hear about that is because there is none (or very little). They are already sold in long term contracts at this stage. Lynas is the heaviest rare earth deposit outside China anywhere near production. This has allowed them to sell to the largest Japanese rare earth users with the best long term contracts in the business. The size of the Mt Weld increase is some news as it adds to the mine life. Mine life will matter later but is not a share price mover with the near term production issues at hand.


    One of the REE mistakes in research I see in my opinion has been the over emphasis on the manufacturing side of the story. Most of the "experts" have a manufacturing view. This often is reflected in their almost childish view of mining. Mine life, mining contracts, funding , and cash flow always matter in the business. But in REE's there are several articles on the chemistry (who is heaviest), China control and downstream factors for each article on conventional fundamentals.


    But I cannot see how the traditional mining factors do not eventually rule the day if politics do not overtake the situation. I mean if Lynas produces soon they will have the best long term contracts, the best long term companies, reliable cash flow and earnings at current prices, and the potentially the first HREE deposit in production. Those factors would put them way ahead of any other non-Chinese mine.


    Moreover, the feasibility of every other project will have to re-calculated. It will tell us more on what margins Moly can get with basnasite ore. It will tell us more about Steen funding and mine life and how it affects their project. and it will illuminate the path to production for many of the other unfunded projects.


    But no matter what those conclusions are I am sure we will be talking more on the traditional mining metrics and we will see how mine life, mining contracts, funding , and cash flow always matter in the business. Most of the manufacturing articles are interesting and they do matter on some issues. But mining, even REE mining, is not as complicated as some want to believe. And I cannot see how the complexities the manufacturing "experts" like to talk about ever change or undermine the basics of the business.


    And first and foremost this business starts with the mine. The costs and ore concentrations are clear barriers to entry in the business. Those mines that get into production will make money and they can easily go down stream if it is worth it afterwards. But if the mine is not feasible the non-Chinese companies have proven they are of limited value. My approach is to buy the miner I like best and hold till the traditional mining metrics are fully valued. That is a long term investment strategy in REE's. But it is my approach and I am comfortable holding at this stage. DYOR.
    21 Sep 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Here is a follow-on from Mercy's report. The information is posted on the Oz exchange site.


    * The Ore Reserves at the central Lanthanide deposit are now 9.7 million tones, at an average grade of 11.7% REO, for a total of 1.14 million tones of contained REO. *


    * This represents a 362% increase in ore reserves and a 260% increase in contained REO compared with that prior ore reserves contained in the 2005 feasibility study.


    * The ore reserves represent more than 25 years mine life based on current production planes (22,000 tones per annum REO).


    * The Ore reserves will provide the basis for expanded operations at Mount Weld.


    * Nick Curtis said Mount Weld ore reserves now support our current production plans for more than 25 years.


    I could not find any info on whether the composition of the ore has been modified.
    20 Sep 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • I would have thought the US vol on LYSDY would be high today... but there is hardly any vol at all. Those first few bids look like market maker bait.
    21 Sep 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Low volume, wide spread, and turmoil among the whales and institutions as they try to figure out whether to believe China or a world maket teetering on the edge.


    The REE/Strat. sector has been beaten down far beyond any solid tether with reality.


    Until the ASX can sort out its fear and loathing over looming changes at home (ie, huge new taxes, kneecap and carbogeddon, and real world demand from their commodity customers instead of manipulated empire building), the pinks and ADRs will be leading, and they are extremely ill-suited to do this.
    21 Sep 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • The amount of usable ore increased by a factor of 3 in one day. 15M shares moved in Oz last night.


    Our market has been open for about 3.5 hours, and 4,760 shares have traded. 4k of that market vol was mine. That leaves 760 shares bought by every one else in the first 3.5 hours. Average vol is 125k.


    I don't know Trip... it does not feel right. Is that a smell of offering in the wind?
    21 Sep 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It would be unusual for it to first appear here (and would normally be represented by aggressive selling, not low volume) if word had leaked...


    The announcement of a large new ore projection was not really news, we have been seeing those as the future for Mount Weld for a long time, this just firms up the picture a little (note the lack of details though). It has been widely touted as the largest such deposit known, so I was not surprised when the market reaction was muted. We are past the "junior explorer discovers deposit is estimated to be big" stage, and into the "waiting for production to start and profits to roll in... still waiting... still waiting...".


    Of course, I have been expecting a new funding deal, probably with da boyz in NY or Tokyo (currently I lean toward Tokyo, I believe they are really wanting to nail down their reliable source), but I would be surprised by a large dilutionary offering. Not to say it could not happen, maybe NC has lost his bank dealmaking touch...


    Volume on LYSCF is normal or a tad stronger than average...


    LYSDY could be locked up with some large orders that the MM (ADR holder) is playing games with, of course.


    I would think to see a burst of larger orders late in the day, but it is a mystery to me, really.
    21 Sep 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Chinese Rare Earths to Japan "Rumored" to be Suspended Due to the Diaoyu Islands Crisis.
    More inspections of the exported rare earth materials... delays in shipping... and so on.
    24 Sep 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes. LOL, therefore logical that the REE sector leaders all see their share prices tank today...


    I would rate the action today a definite "Hold", based upon the disconnect between share price and news reports.
    24 Sep 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Here we go again....


    Lynas On Hold For A Week.

    25 Sep 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I now make it a practice going forward to avoid investing in all companies with significant investments in Malaysia.


    I am still long Lynas, however, primarily because I am near break even and would like to eventually exit at a profit.


    I hope the delay will be relatively brief (I am doubtful it will belimited to a single week, however). In the meantime, we can expect share price to start rapidly eroding again. This news will trump any potential impact from news about restarting Mount Weld - shipments to Malaysia of stockpiled feedstock - first feed to the LAMP, etc. Given the situation, NC will likely choose to wait to release updates, meaning this news will sit in the silent news environemnt like a dead fish.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • The stock closed in OZ down about 7.6% on the news. I agree with your assessment that the issue will not be resolved on 4 October. On top of this, I see an offering on the horizon, so I am considering preserving my capital with a strategic withdrawal.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Great Western Minerals Group to launch Preliminary Economic Assessment for Hoidas Lake Rare Earth Project


    TSX Venture Symbol: GWG
    CUSIP: 39141Y 10 3


    SASKATOON, Sept. 25, 2012 /CNW/ - Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company"), (TSXV: GWG) is pleased to announce it will undertake a Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") for its Hoidas Lake rare earth project based on promising large-scale lab results.


    Combined beneficiation/metallur... test work has successfully produced a rare earth rough concentrate as well as a phosphate concentrate. That was followed by further hydrometallurgical test work that produced a mixed rare earth carbonate and fertilizer that can either be saleable products or used for further rare earth separation.


    The large-scale lab results received from the Chinese institute with which GWMG has been working during the past two years included the following:


    (Summary report at


    • The test results for the magnetic separation-flotation process indicate that the total rare earth recovery in the rare earth and apatite concentrates is 89.45%.
    • The hydrometallurgical treatment of the rare earth rough concentrate included sulfuric acid roasting, water leaching, double-salt precipitation, caustic soda transformation, hydrochloric acid selective dissolution, radium removal and precipitation by ammonium carbonate. It resulted in a rare earth recovery of 78.62% in the produced mixed rare earth carbonate.
    • Extraction of rare earths and phosphorus from apatite concentrate using the developed process included nitric acid treatment, neutralization and precipitation, sulfuric acid roasting of the residue, water leaching and preparing rare earth product, plus gypsum precipitation and liquid ammonia neutralization of the filtrate. It resulted in a rare earth recovery of 78.64% in the produced mixed rare earth carbonate.
    • The combined beneficiation-metallur... process resulted in an overall rare earth recovery of 70.33%, comprised of 38.68% from rare earth rough concentrate and 31.65% from apatite concentrate. The phosphate recovery from the apatite concentrate was 92.5% in the produced Nitrogen-Phosphorous complex fertilizer. The specifications of both the mixed rare earth carbonate and the fertilizer, according to GWMG's preliminary assessments, meet market requirements.


    GWMG President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Engdahl said, "The promising test results for our Neodymium-enriched Hoidas Lake project have confirmed the validity of our original assumptions on the processes that are most likely to be successful. The positive results from the large-scale lab work have led GWMG to move ahead with a PEA for Hoidas that will also address the issues of its remote location now that we have removed the metallurgical bottlenecks from the project."
    25 Sep 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • GWM, considering their financial condition, is spread so thin and yet they are throwing pennies at different projects, some of which are just years and years away from development. I would like to see concentration on those projects which are closest to fruition and then spending profits on further development of the other sites.
    25 Sep 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I agree OG. JE (wildcat junior explorer) is obviously still running things. I would have much preferred an announcement that they had found a new CEO.


    Rather than a news catalyst to help share price, this could be a non event or even a slight minus...
    25 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • I would have to think they are looking to monetize Hoidas, particularly based on comments in the last call. The only way to really do this or extract anything of significance is to have some hard numbers behind it.


    But I agree they can't put too much cash into this unless an outside party has already expressed legitimate interest.
    25 Sep 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • They go to the trough too many times. They should be looking for joint ventures to finance such projects, imo. What is the interest rate on their debt? I don't recall the number ( could it be 8%?), but I remember thinking it was high, accurately reflecting the risks.
    25 Sep 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • O.G. IIRC too, it was indeed 8%.


    25 Sep 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Interim guy takes over 10/1. Pinky bet: Interim guy becomes permanent.
    25 Sep 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OG: Gawd, I hope not. Last thing they need is a lawyer CEO...
    25 Sep 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • Tough night for Lynas on the ASX -- closing down 5%. These 2 articles and short video provide good updates on the TOL delay by the courts, debt covenant negotiations, as well as the Malaysian protestor's latest threats:



    26 Sep 2012, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy:
    From the second article, this could have a nasty effect if the fight drags on.


    "Lynas has also agreed to a temporary rise in the interest rate on the loan, from the London interbank offered rate (Libor) plus 2.75 per cent, to Libor plus 5.25 per cent".


    Let's hope this one is *quickly* resolved.


    26 Sep 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Picked up from HC.


    "When a Legal Challenge Becomes a National Nuisance"

    26 Sep 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy, Jimenez: Greetings. Thanks for the update. What is the assessment on a possible offering by Lynas?
    26 Sep 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Hi Robert, Others on this Concentrator may be more up-to-date on the potential for a new offering. I am currently in TB's camp -- thinking some of the BIG BOYZ will step up for a $$$ infusion. China's recent threats to cut off REE supplies to Japan may be adding incentives to several big players to keep Lynas on the road to production and delivery on their long-term contract locks. I am interested in hearing opinions of others.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks MJ.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • I got the impression from the second link that the renegotiation of the debt covenants with Sojitz was done to open an additional 80M line of credit to provide working capital and one of the requirements was the temporary increase of the interest rate from 2.75 to 5.25. I think a deal with Sojitz qualifies as one of the big boyz.


    The third link is disturbing as it reveals the protestors intend to block shipments of materials into and probably out of the plant. So even if the courts decide, the delays will not be over.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I'll support MJ's comment. Lynas slowed down cashburn when they shut down Mount Weld and completed Phase 1 construction. This would tend to extend the time they can wait to add new funding. I was calling for a new funding agreement for this quarter or early 2013, now I would estimate 1Q 2013 to 2Q 2013...


    The potential alteration of terms (not a surprising item to end up buried in the mice type of such agreements) would be a logical protective device by da Boyz lending money to a company like Lynas.


    On the plus side it would be difficult to imagine a more supportive geopolitical (and in this case, the political dimension controls the macro economic ramifications) environment than the tensions between China and Japan. Then we have the reports that China has ceased shipping ree's to Japan - the opening of the new capitive REE Exchange by China's REE Cartel - and the cessation of the flood of clandestine smuggling and "overshipments" by the now defunct private Chinese REE industry which has driven down world prices.


    There is a huge logical disconnect between current REE sector events and share prices. Its as if we had awakened to news that Iran had nuked Israel, and oh, by the way, oil prices were down 30% as a result.
    26 Sep 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Stans seems to be back in business...


    Those looking for a trade in this extremely risky stock should look closely at these developments with the K government. New management at the ministry.


    Currently trading near $.49, I would call this trade a current buy, with a near term bounce to $.64+ possible.


    Those watching paint dry with Lynas can expect little news until the hearing later this week, and the expiration of the one week suspension ordered by the Malay court.


    GWMGF has recently settled back into its low trading range as the good news about the Steenkampskraal drill program was upset by the disturbing announcement of the PEA for Hoida Lake and the continuing wait for resolution of their CEO hunt.
    1 Oct 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • TB: And me w/no dry powder! Typical for now.


    1 Oct 2012, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Those who followed my lead on this HREEF trade, note that it has now stalled out in the low $.70's and I have sold out of my positions at a nice short term profit.
    8 Oct 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like


    SASKATOON, SK, Oct. 1, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company", TSX:V - GWG) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Great Western Technologies Inc. of Troy, Michigan, has been selected by the United States Department of Defense to conduct a supply chain assessment for high-purity yttrium oxide. Yttrium oxide is used in a variety of defense applications including polishing compounds for precision lasers and thermal barrier coatings for jet engines.


    GWMG Interim President and Chief Executive Officer Robert Quinn said, "We intend to advance previous U.S. Department of Defense research to uncover the extent to which the defense industrial base has the capacity to produce high-purity yttrium oxide to support critical defense programs. The Defense Department's investment in our research is an acknowledgment of yttrium's strategic role in national defense and the potential of GWMG to meet its future needs."


    DOD also tapped UCOR and Thomas & Skinner.
    Nice to see GWTI doing something.
    1 Oct 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert: Greetings. Thanks.
    1 Oct 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Lynas issues a statement regarding the injunction related to its TOL.

    2 Oct 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Lynas responds to ASX exchange inquiry into the TOL suspension case before the Malay court.
    2 Oct 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • A positive start for the day, in US$ Lynas closed at 0.874 in Oz last night and is trading at 0.884 in Frankfurt right now.
    3 Oct 2012, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • UCOR halted news pending
    3 Oct 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What does it mean when major news media gins up "headlines" based upon decrepit news from months ago, while it ignores dramatic developments in the current situation which are far more important?


    LOL, inquiring minds would like to know...


    Reuters just emitted one of these puzzling explosions of non-news:



    This can be expected to trash REE share prices short term, even as the situation bubbling under the non-coverage of the actual story (China bans shipments of ree's to Japan, cuts the list of potential REE exporters, etc, etc, etc) gets short shrift.


    So, the markets will be driven with the usual media cattle prods in one direction, until the real effect cuts in and we see the sheeple investors driven in a panicked herd in the OPPOSITE direction.


    This could present buying opportunities, for those with stronger stomachs.


    GWM, which has a clear near term focus on the critical ree spectrum, may benefit in a fuzzy, indirect manner from this sleight of hand by Reuters. Lynas and MCP are the named targets, of course...
    3 Oct 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • The article is dated Sept 19th. Did you follow a newly posted link?
    3 Oct 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL, I did. On my screen it was linked to LYSDY this morning, with a date stamp of 9:41am today. When I provided the link, I tracked back to the source rather than just dump folks into my broker's firewall. I am usually more careful...


    Odd that I see this older article suddenly popping up on top of multiple broker's headline screens... That in itself is a question worth asking.


    Sorry about any confusion. It explains some things which happened then, and it explains why the response for Lynas and MCP this morning was so muted (its already baked into the price).
    3 Oct 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • I see that issue on Google all the time Trip. I search for breaking news, get links to articles with time stamps in hours or minutes, and that fresh link takes me to an old article. Some web pages are updated all the time, but the news is old. I came to the conclusion that many web masters have set up automatic updating of their pages to attract page views.


    However, in this situation, it is very strange that an old news article was posted on a Brokers up-dated news list. That does sound like they are coloring the news for a purpose.
    3 Oct 2012, 11:15 AM Reply Like


    Ucore Reports Dysprosium Separation Breakthrough
    3 Oct 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Ucore has done a nice job with its stock recently thanks to its dysprosium news.
    20 Oct 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Lynas provides update...
    The Kuantan High Court has adjourned until 10 Oct an application by parties associated with the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group who are seeking an injunction against the TOL The deferral arose from additional affidavits submitted by Lynas.
    4 Oct 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL, so now the Malay government is working a new source of delays: Lynas is defending their position, so they need more time to delay things.


    Presumably had Lynas just stood silent they would have delayed things to try to figure out how to... wellllll... delay things.


    Handy to be able to just hit the reset button every time the nice man from the Tong knocks on your door in the dead of night.
    4 Oct 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • In the meantime, LYC went up 3 Ozzie cents last night so it should be trading at US$0.88 for us Up Top.
    5 Oct 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • These headlines are nice for a change. Malay youth leader encourages students to reject the political motivations behind Lynas operational delays and warns that China is ready to replace Malaysian processing. Yes -- I'll bet they are!


    "In fact, businessmen from China who I had a meeting with two weeks ago, had asked if they could process the end products and residues from Lynas. They are also willing to build processing plants, worth about RM1 billion ...
    As the representatives of local youth, we will continue to spread the truth about Lynas."

    8 Oct 2012, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy: Well, das a gut news! Some folks that think about reality and the future.


    8 Oct 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • The "greening" of MCP


    This company (SOLB )sounds worth checking out.
    9 Oct 2012, 03:22 AM Reply Like
  • Management hires at GW


    SASKATOON, Oct. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Great Western Minerals Group Ltd.
    ("GWMG" or the "Company", TSX:V - GWG) is pleased to announce
    management appointments that will play a key role in the Company's
    continued progress at its Steenkampskraal rare earth project in South


    Victor Fitzmaurice is appointed to the position of Operations General
    Manager with GWMG's wholly owned subsidiary, Rare Earth Extraction Co.
    Limited ("Rareco"). Reporting directly to the Chief Executive Officer
    of Rareco, Mr. Fitzmaurice is responsible for all development stages in
    moving Steenkampskraal toward production. He will then assume overall
    responsibility for day-to-day management of the rare earth mining,
    chloride production and separation operations located at and near


    Mr. Fitzmaurice is a Professional Engineer, holds a B.Sc. in Engineering
    (Mining) along with a Graduate Diploma in Engineering (Mining,
    Engineering and Mineral Economics) from the University of
    Witwatersrand, and is currently working toward a M.Sc. in Mining
    Engineering. He is a member of the Engineering Council of South Africa,
    the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and the
    Association of Mine Managers of South Africa. His significant
    experience in senior mining positions throughout Africa, Europe and
    Asia has been with companies that include Gulf Mining and Exploration,
    AIM Resources Africa and De Beers.


    Andreas Muntingh is appointed to the position of Mine Geologist where he
    is responsible for executing all geology related development,
    production and exploration activities at the Steenkampskraal mine site.
    Reporting directly to the Steenkampskraal Mine Manager, Mr. Muntingh
    will also assist in the design, implementation and execution of the
    Steenkampskraal regional exploration project.


    Mr. Muntingh holds a B.Sc. (Hons.) in Geology from the University of
    Stellenbosch and a Masters of Business Administration from North-West
    University. His experience in exploration and mining geology has been
    gained in Australia and South Africa. Proficient in Afrikaans and
    English, he has previously worked in senior geological positions with
    companies that include Platinum Australia, Energem Resources and Trans
    Hex Operations.


    Interim President and Chief Executive Officer Robert Quinn said, "The
    ability of GWMG to attract such high calibre management personnel to
    lead and manage our Steenkampskraal operation speaks very favorably
    about the potential of our project. Mr. Fitzmaurice and Mr. Muntingh
    are welcome additions to our Steenkampskraal team and we look forward
    to their significant contribution to the success of GWMG as it
    continues to execute its corporate goal of being a fully integrated
    rare earth producer."
    9 Oct 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • (LYSDY)


    But of course...


    October 10, 2012 - Appearing on the ASX exchange:


    The Kuantan High Court has reserved its decision [delay for review] on an application by parties associated with the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group who are seeking an injunction against Lynas' Temporary Operating License.


    The High Court is scheduled to deliver its decision on 8 November 2012.


    Arising from the delay that these proceedings have caused, Lynas' target first feed to kiln date will be delayed to a date later than the previously advised date of October 2012.
    10 Oct 2012, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • Well, the Malaysians have certainly created enough data to discourage a lot of future business ventures from going there.


    10 Oct 2012, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • On TV last night, BBC World mentioned that the High Court was considering this. It's good that the word is getting out about the difficulties of doing business in Malaysia -- more pressure to do the right thing.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Time for Lynas to layoff all their Malaysian workforce and mothball the LAMP, like they have done Mount Weld, to conserve their remaining capital. They should continue with the last part of Phase 2 Construction, I believe, since that has its own restricted funding and is at least something they can do while they wait.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It may also be time for Lynas to consider the implications of their massive failing investment in Malaysia. Aside from laying off all Malaysians (which should of course be done immediately) its time for the company to reconsider keeping the healthy portion of Lynas hitched to the Malaysian cancer. The more delayed it becomes, the more likely that it will ultimately destroy the company.


    Concerns about protecting the share price by continuing the commitment to Malaysia are now moot. JPM and several other xperts have estimated that Lynas' current low share price has already priced in the complete writeoff of the LAMP at something like $.75. A dramatic reshuffling of the company's funding is going to be needed soon regardless, and what better time to make the writeoff official and move ahead with a viable alternative plan centered around developing the Duncan and Crown deposits?
    10 Oct 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • In Frankfurt right now, Lynas is trading at the equivalent of 77 US¢. We have seen worse, so I am keeping the faith.
    10 Oct 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I would expect a reaction in MCP and GWM share price today, as those who bail on Lynas jump to the competition. I am heavier Lynas than the other 2 (though overweight all 3, really), so I may do some trimming today...


    Oddly enough the small fry REE (I am overdue to update that list here) have been doing quite well over the past few months...
    10 Oct 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • seems like there's a great buying opportunity in Lynas somewhere here along the way, if one could ever figure out *when* the Malaysians will let up...
    10 Oct 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The assumption has to be that either the Malay elections (perhaps April 2013?) or a time when China wants to use LAMP as a bit of leverage of some kind for their new IM exchange (similar timing at the earliest) would make sense. Further out (say, late 2013 early 2014) when Lynas might complete a Duncan plant in Australia there would be a sweet spot where they could "allow" the LAMP in Malaysia to operate, pulling resources away from the worst case scenario where Lynas operates independently in a polity where the Chinese special operators don't run the country (at least, not directly)...


    Trying to time this snake's nest of geopolitical maneuvering would be a toughie.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Reduced my LYSCF exposure this am. In this market I am reducing or eliminating spec stock exposure since they will be the first to get thrown under the bus in a meltdown. Still holding long LYSCF position.
    10 Oct 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • GW has applied to extend the warrants from Oct 19 to Dec 15th. I guess the thinking is 1) the need the extra cash and 2) the upcoming PEA will drive the price above the .45 strike price.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas is getting pounded tonight in OZ.
    10 Oct 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • yup. yuck.
    10 Oct 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes. It closed close to where LYSDY closed here yesterday.
    11 Oct 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • One of the Australian explorers, Hastings, is appearing on Asian radar screens for their heavy rare earths.
    14 Oct 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • I am posting this story (which is about India and bauxite used for steel) as a cautionary tale for Lynas stock holders. There is no reason to think, that just because Lynas sunk hundreds of millions into Malaysia, and that the Malaysian government agreed to TOL, that
    there will be anything but misery for years to come.
    I don't own any Lynas, and think it's a bad deal.
    15 Oct 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • OG,
    I appreciate your posting that article containing some similarities to the challenges facing Lynas. It is interesting to see that India's battles with VAL are progressing even though "thousands stand to lose their jobs" -- whereas Lynas' leverage is "only" over hundreds of jobs in Malaysia.


    I am still holding some Lynas LYSCF -- but I NEVER fall in love with a stock and I ALWAYS appreciate someone posting an article that adds to my continuous evaluation of positions I hold. Thanks very much -- more to chew on re: risks with Lynas.
    15 Oct 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Alert!


    LYSDY is presenting a clear arbitrage opportunity now, trading at $.63 vs $.675 for LYSCF.


    I anticipate a close between $.67 and .68.
    17 Oct 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • TB, I have lost the ref to the preferred share symbol. Have you got it handy.
    18 Oct 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The ADR is LYSDY, and the standard OTC pink sheet listing is LYSCF, DG. I don't believe Lynas has a preferred issue.


    MCP has one. Are you thinking of MolyCorp Preferred (MCP-A)?
    18 Oct 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • yep TB, it's Moly. No wonder I could not find it under lynus. CRS is getting worse I guess. Maybe I will forget my b-days and never turn least in my mind. Being as old as you think you are just might work for me.
    18 Oct 2012, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • General Moly's Mt. Hope molybdenum project reaches an important milestone with the final environmental impact statement. If this document meets with approval and a separate record of decision is determined to be positive, then General Moly can mine for molybdenum.;highlight=
    23 Oct 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Here's an update to the Mt. Hope story. A necessary document got approved from the federal authorities for the company to operate the mine. But in reading the fine print, I see that it is possible for somebody to appeal the document.
    19 Nov 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • The company announces that they now have all the necessary permits. They are working on funding the mine construction; that
    should be not be much of a problem.
    26 Nov 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Here's more market manipulation from China.
    24 Oct 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • The government is now admitting the obvious that the rare earth miners are officially under their protection.
    23 Nov 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • From Lynas: Notice of ceasing to be a substantial holder (Morgan Stanley) -- what impact will this have?
    25 Oct 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This means they have dropped below their customary 10% of the company, probably below 5%. I would guess that they have sold off about 100million shares or more.


    In terms of the effect on the share price, this is already reflected (one reason for the low price has been their trading activity). Their absence or reduced presence going forward might indicate a less aggressive short environment...


    Depending upon who ended up with their shares, of course.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • I view it as a negative. Morgan Stanley can still hammer the company with short term trades and drive share price.They are not invested in the long term, meaning they cut bait because there are better opportunities elsewhere, with less risk.


    I did read elsewhere that the political climate in Malaysia is changing, and that people want to get rid of the 50 year old regime in place, and that it is possible the TOL will be a permanent casualty of politics.
    I don't know anything about Malaysian politics, but perhaps some of you might want to examine that further.
    25 Oct 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Well, I made a hard trade-off today. I decided to sell @ave $0.71 my remaining shares of Lynas for a loss. Still like this company on several levels but it was right for me (do your own DD) for the following reasons:


    1) I have zero trust in the Malaysian government ... their regulatory bodies ... or their High Court ... to do what is right.


    2) The long suffering delays are burning Lynas cash and some kind of share dilution is likely in the near future.


    3) I have zero trust in the Chinese government's ability to refrain from exerting "influences" in Malaysia to protect their REE suppliers -- especially as global prices get squeezed.


    4) I expect some general market downdraft after the US elections -- irrespective of who wins -- and the Malay High court "decision" will not be made before 11/8.


    5)Just for perspective - I reminded myself that I sold AVL near $8 instead of the $1.65 it fetches today -- i.e. so important to not fall in love with any stocks.


    6) And at the moment I have better alternatives for deploying what I still had invested in Lynas.


    I will continue following this thread because I think Lynas stands a chance at growing into a gem -- once all of these parties stop playing their games. As always I thank those who have educated me along the way on Lynas -- and hope the TOL situation has a surprise/permanent turn around on 11/8.
    25 Oct 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • By the looks of my gains and losses, I'm not an astute investor -- too new at this and probably better suited to gardening.


    However, it seems to me that with Nov. 8 just around the corner and with most, if not all, of the downside already wrung out of the of Lynas SP, there's no way to go but up.
    26 Oct 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • With all these delays, we need to consider cash issues Ung...
    26 Oct 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I apologize for the brevity of this response, but I am almost on the road and will be out of pocket for 4 days, so...


    I recently posted that Lynas would need additional funding, no later (according to my estimate) than 1q or 2q 2013. This assumes they do NOT mothball the LAMP, which action could extend things another quarter. I do believe that additional funding will ultimately be required, on the order of $100-150mm.


    JPM (which is once again sticking their nose into Lynas, now that MS is bowing out) recently estimated Lynas' share price value at $.74 IF the LAMP was a complete and utter write-off. Pricing in the $.60's would be pricing in about $100-150mm in dilution, along with the scenario where Lynas walks away from the Lamp.


    If there is a worse scenario than the current sitrep and share price, I can't quantify it at this time.


    Everyone should always, of course, do their own research and reach their own conclusions based upon their individual situation and risk tolerance. Generally speaking, this is a high risk investment for a lot of reasons.
    26 Oct 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Thorium as a byproduct of rare earths mining is sometimes noted. This conference described in the link has some details about how thorium production can go mainstream. The rare earth mining efforts should increase in value if that happens at some future time.
    25 Oct 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • I'm holding my Lynas shares and waiting out the election cycle. Should the dilution occur, and I suspect it will, I will double down on LYSDY.
    26 Oct 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Good idea, Robert, since this is liable to be a game-changer:



    The Sultan of Pahang speaks!!
    28 Oct 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Good to see this hit the mainstream newspapers on Sunday:



    I'd think tomorrow may be a very good day for Lynas.
    28 Oct 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Here is an article that might also encourage, somewhat. It doesn't add much that is unknown here .

    28 Oct 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Seems that not everything in the offing is bad news. Thanks for the links.
    28 Oct 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like


    Great Western planning an expanded PEA. Clearly they are going to extend the mine life again, imo. Still intend to get it out in Q4. I heard November, fwiw.


    Corporate Update
    as at October 31, 2012


    "GWMG Expands Scope of PEA, Retains Q4 2012 Release Target"


    Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company") Corporate Holdings:


    1 Former producing mine: Steenkampskraal mine in South Africa: Under development.
    1 Rare earth mixed chloride plant at Steenkampskraal: Under development.
    1 Rare earth solvent extraction separation plant near Steenkampskraal: Under development.
    2 Rare earth alloy manufacturing plants: Less Common Metals Limited ("LCM") in Birkenhead, U.K. and Great Western Technologies Inc. ("GWTI") in Troy, Michigan: In operation.
    5 Rare earth exploration projects: 1 at Steenkampskraal, 4 in North America.
    Preliminary Economic Assessment:
    In line with previous guidance, GWMG remains committed to release a Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") during the 4th Quarter of 2012. The purpose of the PEA is to further develop and communicate operational and financial projections for the Company’s complete corporate structure based on independent analysis of the mining of rare earth-bearing monazite, extraction to mixed chloride, separation of oxides, and metal and alloy production.


    Subsequent to that announcement, the Company has instructed its PEA consultants, Snowden Mining Industry Consultants (Pty) Ltd. ("Snowden") of Johannesburg, South Africa, to extend the original scope of the PEA work to include a new resource estimate for the area of mineralization identified by the Company’s Steenkampskraal exploration activities in recent months. The Company anticipates this initiative could result in additional National Instrument 43-101-compliant Inferred and Indicated resource tonnages. The Company will then add this to the provisional mine plan to determine to what extent it could extend the potential life of mine.


    The Company expects that even with the expanded scope of work under the PEA, its 4th Quarter 2012 release target will be achieved.


    Steenkampskraal Exploration:
    On September 18, 2012, GWMG reported on assays varying from 0.02 to 45.81 weight percent ("wt.%") Total Rare Earth Oxides ("TREO") with an average of 17.74 wt.% TREO from underground channel, resource drill hole and exploration drill hole assays. Within the drill program that was reported, covering 83 drill holes, true thickness varied from 0.02 metres to 6.67 metres and averaged 0.92 metres.


    As of October 18, 2012, GWMG has now completed 106 drill holes over a total of 12,634.29 metres. Assay results will continue to be released once analyzed. Shipments of samples to SGS Laboratories of Johannesburg, South Africa are ongoing and as a result the Company expects that the Steenkampskraal drill program will continue to produce assay results subsequent to the cut-off point for inclusion in the updated resource estimate that is included in the upcoming PEA.


    Steenkampskraal Surface Refurbishment:
    GWMG has recently completed additional work on surface facilities at Steenkampskraal as it prepares for administration and mining activity at the Steenkampskraal site. These include:


    An updated survey has been conducted by the Radiation Protection Officer and his team in preparation for zoning for the start of construction of the mixed chloride plant.
    The offices near the Steenkampskraal entrance gate are now fully functional.
    The scrap yard has been cleared up with scrap sorted into various classifications.
    The surface soil around the old slimes residues has been remodeled to prevent potential radiation migration.
    The old building ruins that had been in place since mining activities in the 1960’s have been cleared.
    The regular watering of roads in, and to, the Steenkampskraal site, using water from the reverse osmosis water treatment plant, has led to significantly reduced levels of dust generation.
    The wash down area for vehicles, the new gate house and weigh bridge are now installed.
    Steenkampskraal Underground Refurbishment:
    GWMG has also completed several underground refurbishment steps as it prepares for mining activity at the Steenkampskraal site. These include:


    A new ventilation system with a set of three fans is being installed near the top of the decline for purposes of pulling air underground through the mine. Ingress of fresh air will be through the decline as well as through the vertical secondary exit shaft.
    The new ropes, winder and head gear will undergo commissioning trials early in 2013.
    Mixed Chloride Plant:
    As noted in GWMG’s Corporate Update of August 30, 2012, the position of the mixed chloride plant at the Steenkampskraal site has been finalized after sterilization drilling at the first two locations found significant monazite mineralization beneath them. The geotechnical work as well as the radioactivity survey at the area of the site that has been chosen for the planned 5,000 tonnes per annum mixed chloride plant is now complete.


    Evaluation of long-lead items and time-critical project components is underway. In addition, design work has begun for the installation of tanks, pumps, dispensing, pipework and blending equipment that will be needed to accept deliveries of commercial chemicals at the mixed chloride plant. The Company has selected DRA Group of South Africa as the contractor on the current work program.


    Solvent Extraction Separation Plant:
    The preliminary layouts for the solvent extraction separation plant have been completed in China. GWMG will now continue to develop those plans according to South African construction and operations standards.


    The solvent extraction separation plant project is being overseen by GWMG Vice-President, Metallurgy Baodong Zhao, Technical Consultant Xinbin Rui, Rare Earth Extraction Co. Ltd. (“Rareco”) Technical Manager Witker Zimba, GWMG Vice-President Operations Richard Hogan and Rareco Operations General Manager Vic Fitzmaurice.


    The CEO recruitment process continues to work toward the appointment of the Company's new Chief Executive Officer within the previously stated target of 2012. The Search Committee, consisting of Interim CEO Robert Quinn, and independent Directors Bill McKnight, George Ireland and Ian McNaughton, reports that high quality candidates who are attracted to a unique, multi-faceted, high growth opportunity have displayed a very strong interest in the position. The Search Committee is working with Korn/Ferry International, a global executive recruitment agency which has conducted in excess of 10,000 senior-level searches worldwide, in the selection phase of the process.


    Baodong Zhao has been appointed Vice-President, Metallurgy. Dr. Zhao is responsible for oversight of the implementation of critical technological applications of metallurgy in all aspects of GWMG’s business development and expansion planning. Dr. Zhao holds a Bachelors and a Masters Degree in Physical Chemistry in Metallurgical Processes from the University of Science and Technology in Beijing and a Ph. D. in Chemistry from Queen’s University.


    Great Western Minerals Group Summary:
    Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. is an integrated rare earth processor. Its specialty alloys are used in the battery, magnet and aerospace industries. Produced at the Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries Less Common Metals Limited in Birkenhead, U.K. and Great Western Technologies Inc. in Troy, Michigan, these alloys contain aluminum, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements. As part of the Company’s vertical integration strategy, GWMG also holds 100% equity ownership in Rare Earth Extraction Co. Limited, which owns a 74% equity interest in the Steenkampskraal Mine in South Africa. In addition to an exploration program at Steenkampskraal, GWMG also holds interests in four active rare earth exploration and development properties in North America.
    31 Oct 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • It's November 2012 and China GQD has nothing on the ground in Steen right?


    Now we get a PEA expansion and no direct mention of GQD or GWMGGQD (just China). Is GQD needing a better PEA in order to invest further in the separation plant at Steen?


    From the 10-31-2012 update:
    Mixed Chloride Plant:
    Evaluation of long-lead items and time-critical project components is underway. In addition, design work has begun for the installation of tanks, pumps, dispensing, pipework and blending equipment that will be needed to accept deliveries of commercial chemicals at the mixed chloride plant. The Company has selected DRA Group of South Africa as the contractor on the current work program.


    Solvent Extraction Separation Plant:
    The preliminary layouts for the solvent extraction separation plant have been completed in China. GWMG will now continue to develop those plans according to South African construction and operations standards.
    8 Nov 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I believe GWM is seeking a strategic partner OR an outright buyer. The lack of success attracting a CEO with industrial knowhow (and this is not a particularly challenging job to search) - and the presence of a lawyer in the temp job - puts the fascination with a greatly augmented need for a PEA in a new light.


    What would the purchase price be at this point? $.45 - .50 or so? A disappointment for the long term holders who have not reduced their avg share price below $.25, to be sure...


    Lacking any success attracting a suitor or strategic partner with deep pockets, I would expect to see an attempt to get debt financing in place, followed by dilution to the $.25 level should that fail (and it probably will).


    BUT I expect they will nab a willing partner or buyer. Inking a deal that protects the interests of the insiders will be a bit tricky, but its doable.
    8 Nov 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Sensible theory TB.
    Those long term guys will surely wonder why they needed the big loans $90 million on the convertables at 8% in May of this year. That is a bigger question now since 6 months later it looks like they are still planning (looking for CEO and extending the PEA).


    But if the focus is a sale I would think it could happen quick. That bond package was large enough to effect company value as they fall behind the progress expected based on the maturity of the bond issue.


    "The Bonds bear interest at the rate of 8.0% per annum, are payable semi-annually, mature on April 6, 2017, and are convertible into common shares of the Company (“GWMG Shares”) at a conversion rate of C$0.66 per share. The Bonds are secured obligations of the Company that have a first charge against the Company’s shareholdings in its various operating subsidiaries in the United Kingdom, the United States and South Africa."
    8 Nov 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • Quest Announces That a Revised Resource Estimate for the Strange Lake B-Zone Ree Deposit Shows a Doubling of Tonnage; Hires a Metals Marketing Expert.



    31 Oct 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Molycorp (MCP) announced that it has filed a claim against M&K Chemical Engineering Consultants, Inc. and certain current and former officers and owners of M&K in Colorado Federal District Court arising from a commercial dispute over defects in engineering services related to the Company's Project Phoenix modernization and expansion of its Mountain Pass, California, facility.
    5 Nov 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • I guess we should be hearing about the Lynas "verdict" in the next couple of days? My fingers are crossed that it's good!


    Since it seems like currently all life has been sucked out of the rare earth sector. Should you be buying now? Or is it better to have patience?
    5 Nov 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Nov 8 I believe for any news from the court, barring another delay (which by now seems the norm).


    I have been doing some small scale trades in the REE microcaps, but the bigs are bogged down indeed. At this point I would not commit new money in any of them without substantial movement in the gridlock plaguing everyone.
    5 Nov 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Bloomberg article today features UURAF, MHREF...


    Pentagon Challenges Chinese Monopoly on Rare Earths: Commodities

    7 Nov 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Trading has been halted on the ASX for LYC:AU. Hoping its good news for all of you!
    No position.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • The news is: "Malaysians lose bid to halt rare earths plant"



    Looks like we're in the money now!!!
    7 Nov 2012, 11:36 PM Reply Like
  • Here's an update on Frontier Rare Earths. They have been making progress despite the labor strife going on elsewhere in South Africa.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have a small position in Frontier (it was my pick last year among the small fry due to their deal with the South Koreans).
    8 Nov 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • 08/11/12 (11/08/12 for us Up Top)
    Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) is pleased to announce that the Kuantan High Court has denied an application by parties associated with the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas (SMSL) group (Applicants) for an injunction against Lynas’ Temporary Operating Licence (TOL). The injunction application was referred to in Lynas’ ASX announcement dated October 10, 2012.


    Lynas is also pleased to announce that the Kuantan High Court has ordered that Lynas be added as a party to the application by the Applicants for a judicial review of the decision of the Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation to dismiss an appeal under the Atomic Energy Licensing Act against the Atomic Energy Licensing Board’s decision to approve the TOL. The judicial review application was referred to in Lynas’ ASX announcement dated October 4, 2012.


    The hearing of the judicial review application is expected in a few months time. Both the Malaysian government and Lynas intend to strongly defend the process undertaken by the Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation in dismissing the appeal under the Atomic Energy Licensing Act. There is no injunction or stay preventing Lynas from carrying out its operations at its Malaysian plant.
    7 Nov 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • In US$, Lynas closed in Oz at 0.84 and is trading at about the same in Frankfurt now.


    Almost 24m shares traded in Oz, and it was a little late in the day when the trading halt was lifted there.
    8 Nov 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • is that it then? For real?
    8 Nov 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • I'd hope so. Although it seems in emerging markets there's always at least one more bump in the road than you could anticipate with all powers of foresight.
    8 Nov 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • I think there is one appeal possible. It has no chance of success and will take a while to be heard. But the real key is the appeal, without the injunction, will not stop shipment or production. Therefore it should be background legal noise.


    I think the environmental argument is being reduced to backpage stories. This is the clearest path Lynas has had with LAMP production. I'm fully invested. Currently, I am saving for another buy after the appeal is filed. I think the appeal without an injunction is harmless. And I can't see an injunction path at this point.


    Note also, the funding and environmental interest in the legal argument is also very damaged by the court decision, production, and the royalty comments. The path to public persuasion for SMSL is essentially a dead end now. Just MO.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Gosh, I hope I can find some dry powder by the time that appeal rolls around. The key - for me - is to stop finding work to do on our new home. (note to self: keep mouth and pockets shut when thinking about other things that could be done)
    8 Nov 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • MCP reports today. "Analyst estimates" prepared after a 3-martini lunch are for maybe a penny. Repeatedly revised after each lunch. I may start to nibble...
    8 Nov 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph,
    I believe we are soon expecting 40,000 tonnes of REO to arrive from various taxi cabs in a variety of metropolitan areas in Estonia, China, and Mountain Pass right? :-)
    I could be wrong since I lost track of the current business model. But the report is certainly important news to follow IMO.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • Hi, Chi. Yes, with one disclaimer. Given their cash flow, I believe it will be arriving in gypsy cabs...
    8 Nov 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Molycorp beats by $0.08, misses on revs.
    8 Nov 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Up 6% after hours...
    8 Nov 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Lynas -- a trading halt until 11/13.



    "The trading halt is necessary to allow the institutional component of the capital raising to be completed and a bookbuild to be conducted."
    8 Nov 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Does that mean dilution is coming?
    8 Nov 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well, so much for waiting until Q1 for the next round of funding (or for those who viewed this project as fully funded).


    If anyone has the details (not yet released, though it is early downunder), it would be interesting to see how much they raise this time, and how. NC had promised that the next raise would be with debt and would not affect share price... But this timing looks to be the opposite.


    If they are raising via dilution, the effect of the TOL announcement is likely to zero out (assuming the dilution is about $150million which is just a WAG).


    Much has to do with WHAT is being financed here. If the money is being pulled together to launch a 2nd LAMP to handle Duncan/critical REEs in Western Australia, the numbers could be far higher (on the order of $500mmplus). If we're just looking for operating money to fill the Malaysian pothole, I would expect less.


    Those that sold today may prove prophetic, at least medium-term.
    8 Nov 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Looks like they are selling stock to institutional investors (the likelihood that this group includes those who have been shorting the stock is rather alarming to me)...


    The odd 5 minutes of trading prior to the halt on the ASX is also disturbing, and needs an explanation.


    Much depends upon how much and how...
    8 Nov 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yep. Details are now available on the ASX.



    $150mm to Institutions in 2 tranches, first $60mm, 2nd for $90mm to be approved by shareholders at AGM.


    $50mm to Aussie shareholders in a SPP:

    8 Nov 2012, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Institutional offering is at A$.75. Likelihood that the share price will retreat back to this level (and stay there for the near future) I gauge to be "high". I hope I am wrong about this, however...


    In contrast to the recent softball interviews with NC, we now find that the company needs about $200mm to get to positive cash flow at the LAMP (assuming it actually starts up this time, of course). These numbers are very similar to my personal estimates, though the timing and method is both troubling and damaging to share value.
    8 Nov 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • sometimes you really want to go pull a Terry Tate on some CEOs (well, I do)
    9 Nov 2012, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » As a minor shareholder I plan to vote "no" to everything on the next AGM's slate, including the new shares for institutional shorters, er, "investors".
    9 Nov 2012, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    MCP transcript. Fluffy and lacking in specifics, but that's the norm when lawsuits are involved.


    Oddly, both MCP and Lynas seem to need an extra $150mm right now.
    9 Nov 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • they are letting LYSCF and LYSDY trade....
    9 Nov 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Normal. The ADRs and OTC's often continue even when the home exchange overseas suspends trading.


    $.75 is to be expected, though by Monday we may see a new direction. I am not certain which way it might jump once trading resumes, but I would not be surprised to see $.60's again. This will not make for happy campers among some large holders, here and downunder...


    I should have anticipated that as soon as they overcame the court case (at least, the first court case) NC would drag his plans for new funding as far forward as possible. CEO's are doing this with some regularity these days, insisting that they have plenty of cash on hand, while letting the financially aware look over their numbers and project some bingo moment out next year...


    Then zap onto the markets with no warning with a big chunk of dilution.


    This prevents any retail investors currently long in their stock from stepping out of the picture to let the dilution occur. Its best to remember this maneuver when parsing any future, similar situation from a CEO who pulls this sleight of hand...


    "We are fully funded through x date" actually means "I will catch you offguard and dilute your socks off when you don't expect it long before x date".


    "We are not going to dilute our share base, but will fund ourselves with inexpensive long term debt" actually means "Nobody in their right mind will loan us money, so we WILL dilute you and smile while doing it, and without regard to share price impact".
    9 Nov 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • TB-- I am surprised they are letting it trade with such an extended halt in Australia. I can understand a quick halt an d the pinks, etc still trade but I find it hard to believe they couldn't halt it here. Unfair to the Aussie retail investor for sure.
    9 Nov 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This is normal. I have rarely seen the OTC halt because a foreign exchange was halting a stock.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like


    MCP halted trading, reopened down 10%. Just-announced SEC probe will cover several areas, including "the accuracy of the company's public disclosures," Molycorp stated.
    9 Nov 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Lynas was painful from $2.40 to $0.60.
    And GW was no picnic from $1 to $0.30
    But MCP from $75 to $7.50 is super pain. And for an NYSE stock to do that is really tough. But the worst part is sure to be the Jim Cramer (Philly Squeak)"I told you so" comment whenever it happens.
    10 Nov 2012, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • For Lynas and MCP, are these current times "growing pains," or is it something more serious? I'd really like to believe that we have invested in western rare earths at the beginning of its growth cycle, and a little patience is required.
    10 Nov 2012, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • Jimp,
    For both companies I think we are at the beginning. But investing in company stocks is different than owning the businesses. There is a risk of restructuring. If Lynas is in production soon than I think they are fine. Honestly, I am clearly the most optimistic person on this board about Lynas.


    I think the rest of the comments show a poor understanding of the LAMP legal process and the NC comments are the usual stock market shareholder complaining. They are not false, but most companies have NC nonsense in them. It should not be this way, but I think the complaint is with ASIC and the SEC and I do not expect changes any time soon. I heard way more of this complaining when I was in Fortescue and it was on the rise. In the end, Twiggy Forrest got screwed but I was very happy.


    Moly is in much worse shape IMO. I don't buy the Sorbx toss at this stage. Moly investors bought because they had the fastest path to free cash flow and the lowest cost to production. Now, the cash flow when tied to Phoenix is lost and the cost is meaningless since the margins are gone from the current La and Ce prices.


    Moly is an NYSE stock nearing the $5 mark with an SEC probe. That could effect them in a hurry. A bad comment or two by the SEC will force the institutions to sell under their rules. We saw that with Citibank about a year or two ago. Several people here own the Moly preferred which looks safer. But even there the details should be understood in light of this SEC probe. Just MO.
    10 Nov 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » How did you do with your prior Lynas margin play you told us about, Chi? Are you using margin to multiply your profits again?


    Can you expand on the theme regarding the legal process pertaining to the LAMP? Do you still: "...think there is one appeal possible. It has no chance of success and will take a while to be heard. But the real key is the appeal, without the injunction, will not stop shipment or production. Therefore it should be background legal noise."


    So far as you or I know no other participants here are lawyers, so no doubt its possilbe that all could benefit from such professional insight.
    12 Nov 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Tb,
    I lost money with Lynas margins in the Fall of last year and the Winter of this year. I have not been margined since.


    Disclosure: My understanding of Malaysian law is not based on expertise. I have not done any International Law and almost no Federal issues. The above is my summary of the legal process as I understand it from research. But the trouble has not been just the legal process but the multiple avenues of delay. First Cabinet was to have a final say; then an appeal was allowed; then an injunction was added in even though the language of the appeal would suggest the injunction was not even available.


    So the real issue for me is whether Malaysia will move the goal posts again? They might, but I think the Malaysian royalty comments discourage further judicial action in that direction. I believe they are the grown-up in the room and we are seeing the court process winding down at this point.
    13 Nov 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • SA art. by Jack Lifton


    tackling the issue of an American supply chain.
    10 Nov 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Sumitomo joint venture; Japanese opened ree plant:
    13 Nov 2012, 02:58 AM Reply Like
  • TB...what about MCPa preferred shares at $30 ?


    Can they make their dividend payments?
    13 Nov 2012, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes for now.


    MC just published a new value for MCP common of $12...


    Smith's troubles with the SEC must be considered, however...


    Short percentage of float is outlandish, over 60% last I looked, any news (that Phoenix goes on line as promised this quarter, for instance) could create quite a short squeeze at this point, though I have always viewed the recent CC as lacking in specifics and the promise made by Smith being very "soft".


    Otherwise production remains at about 4kmt, which was one of the rare solid numbers from the recent CC, and not a hopeful sign supporting the concept inferred in the CC that the portions of Phoenix already in place are aiding in production volume.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • They were making hay over at Stockhouse that John Hykawy's 7.00 target for Molycorp has been reached.


    He has a sell on Lynas and a .35 target. That is still over 50% from here yet.


    And he has a strong buy on GW and a 2.50 target. He is visiting LCM at the end of the month. (he said this in an interview)
    13 Nov 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas and Molycorp get a mention in today's WSJ article, "Prices of Rare Earths Succumb to Gravity."


    Lynas and Molycorp, described as the "industry heavyweights," are cited for their large coming REE production. As a result, smaller players like Kimberly Rare Earths, Southern Crown Resources and Black Fire Minerals are switching their attention to other commodities like gold and copper because of the expected over-supply and falling rare earth prices. One analyst expects growth in supply will outstrip demand between 2014 and 2019.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • TAS down to 1.24 today, just weakness in the sector? I didn't see any significant news.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • There all down. QRM down 7% to 1.03.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • Lynas:


    Under ASX Listing Rule 17.1, Lynas Corporation Limited (Lynas) requests a trading halt in trading of the Company’s securities – security code LYC.
    Lynas became aware, initially through statements made on the internet by the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group, that there is a proposed in-chambers application to the Kuantan high court today regarding a further application for an interim stay in respect of the Temporary Operating Licence.
    Lynas believes that this appears to be a repeat of the application that was dismissed on 8 November 2012.
    Lynas requests a trading halt until the outcome of today's events at the Kuantan high court is known, at which time Lynas will release an update to the market.
    The trading halt is requested until the earlier of the release of the announcement or prior to commencement of trading on Friday 16 November 2012.
    Lynas is not aware of any reason why the request for a trading halt should not be granted."


    Some else favorable:
    13 Nov 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Another trading halt on the ASX for LYC...


    Looks like the Malay courts are involved (again):


    "...that there is a proposed in-chambers application to the Kuantan high court today regarding a further application for an interim stay in respect to the Temporary Operating License."


    This trading halt looks to run through Friday morning, Sydney time.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply »


    Last update on MS trades. Interesting list of clients there... Millions of borrowed shares trading hands...


    Last such report, I think, now that they have reduced their holdings below legal limit requiring regular reports.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like another fail for SLSM :


    "The saga surrounding Lynas Corporation Ltd's rare earths plant in Malaysia has taken another turn, with the Kuantan High Court reportedly declining a fresh application for an interim stay on the project."

    14 Nov 2012, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • Looks like the halt applies to Frankfurt, so we may be the first market to see action on Lynas after this positive development.
    14 Nov 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Quite the sell-off in the rare earth space lately. Any specific reason?
    14 Nov 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Speculation:


    1. Higher taxes are coming next year, probably a lot higher on things like dividends. Equities are being sold off and the lemmings are fleeing over the bond cliff.


    2. Tax ramifications given the large selloff mean that loads of folks need offsetting losses to include on their 2012 tax returns. REE stocks have had a horrific year, thus make perfect vehicles to nab tax loss advantages.


    3. News out of China is confusing for the MSM and most investors. The idea that China is curtailing REE production (while the ex-China world markets have just moved a major glut of ree inventory fleeing the cartelization destroying the private Chinese REE industry) means that a simplistic view of events sees a potential return to the "good ol' days" when China kept REE prices artificially low. I believe that the proper view is that China has closed down some major producers because those producers were government operations which were overproducing their primary product (iron/steel, for instance). Having just stockpiled large quantities of REEs, China can afford to do this, while they work through the problem with their malinvestment in too much steel capacity, running their factories on stored REEs. Export markets are weak (given the last gasp of shipments from vanishing private Chinese resources) for now as well. Their timing and strategy makes sense, but...


    The future prospects (and I am unsure as to how far out this effect can last, I suspect it is measured in months rather than years) are for China to resume production about the time Lynas and MCP go into production at their new facilities. This will pressure the common (cerium, lanthanum) element prices, though I doubt we will see prices low enough to shut down either new operation. The critical REEs will hit the news again, as the temporary surplus which hit the markets is replaced with the occasional spot shortage in this element or that.
    14 Nov 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • In addition, with Chinese REEs on again and off again, it's likely that some customers will find reliable REE sources like LYC & MCP very appealing


    BTW, I believe the REE basket price has risen a bit lately.
    14 Nov 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » About 20% - and it tends to lag events with the major Chinese producers by about 60 days.


    For prices to really be meaningful, however, we have to work through about a 12 month supply of additional metals (in terms of world demand) which were squeezed out of secretive hidey-holes and sold when the cartel was formed this year.


    We are about 6 months into that process right now.
    14 Nov 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • TB, thanks for shedding some light on the matter. Excellent.
    14 Nov 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Is there a share price that some of you that have recently sold out of Lynas will consider getting back in at?
    16 Nov 2012, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Boy that last question sat there like a I don't know what for all weekend.
    19 Nov 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry, I was at St. Simons earning a living...


    With the bounce downunder its apparent that at least a temporary bottom is now in. Day trader interest due to the spike is likely.
    19 Nov 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Probably because many of us have not sold and are expecting favorable moves to come this year.
    19 Nov 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Regarding Lynas, NC's report at the Annual General Meeting is at


    Downunder the stock closed at where it opened at almost 69 cents in US currency, but had been 3 cents higher during trading. Trading at US$0.67 in Frankfurt right now.


    Let's hope the worst is behind us.
    20 Nov 2012, 07:26 AM Reply Like


    GW shakes up the BOD. Finally! To me it looks like they are prepping for the new CEO and better talent at the top.
    21 Nov 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Yesterday you would have flamed me if I said the same thing, aqwert.


    But after questioning these guys for almost two years I can see the potential good long term in this move. Even for those that like these guys, we are now a month from 2013 and it is hard to say the progress from these guys was anywhere near their promises. With the financing GW got in May, time is certainly not on their side. I think this implies a power struggle has been going on for a while and was wasting time. This can bring closure to the issue and if progress improves, the company would be more interesting.
    21 Nov 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • whatever.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Funny, I had the opposite reaction. Who changes all the top players when there is no permanent CEO? No CEO and now no board to speak of?
    It looks like a rudderless ship.
    Why keep them around as consultants? So they can give advice and have no power. (You like that Socratic style? I'm thinking out loud.)
    Leaving all the power in the temp CEO's hands? Really? That looks promising to you? Blech.
    21 Nov 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • I think we agree more than you might think. I am taking a half empty view of prior management and a half full view for the future. I do not see the current point as a buying opportunity (just worth watching) and I agree they look rudderless right now. But I disliked and did not have trust in the prior management. Too many half truths and non-disclosures IMO. And yes, I think the same can be said of Smith with Moly and NC with Lynas at this point.


    I view the consultant positions as token in nature with an attempt at the appearance of order. If they last longer in the role I would see your concern, OG. But the current flux is better than the group I saw as worthless before. I never understood the high praise for these three guys. The top two were two of the three reasons to avoid GW (the third being Steen that continues to looks like a bad investment to me). If GQD puts hardware down I will feel better about Steen. But if Hoidas is shelved; Steen is tolled out; and GW focuses as a manufacturing company with new management I may be the only guy that saw it coming.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Note: The GW announcement says "Mr. Billingsley and Mr. Engdahl remain available to the Company on an "as required" consulting basis to ensure their expertise can be accessed by GWMG through the transition." (first paragraph)
    This language is my reason for calling the consultant position token in nature.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This sort of shakeup usually also shakes loose enough shares to create a buyable dip...


    IF we are indeed seeing a general REE sector selloff for tax reasons (and given the prospect of large tax increases in January 2013, one could expect this year to be a particularly nasty example os such), the entire sector would be expected to present a sorry picture...


    And sure enough, there it is.


    Q1 2013 could be very interesting indeed.
    21 Nov 2012, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Adding trading bloc of GWM...
    21 Nov 2012, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Did you guys see this SA article on REES with insider buying?


    Buy Metamec because Sheldon Inwentash did!!!
    Hilarous. PNPFF is the poster child for NOT following insider buying w/o understanding how management works. Inwentash designed his own personal piggy bank and it's PNPFF!
    Another person in the same category, IMO, is Bob Friedland.


    Wishing everyone a happy Thanksgiving.
    21 Nov 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Paraphrasing the 11/22/12 update from Lynas: approx. 100 containers of REE concentrate have arrived at Kuantan and a significant amount is now at the LAMP w/ the 1st feed in the coming days.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • "Lynas Corporation (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) announces that approximately 100 containers of rare earths concentrate have now arrived in Kuantan, and that a significant portion of those containers are now at the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (“LAMP”). Lynas expects that first feed to kiln and commencement of operations at the LAMP will occur over the coming days."


    I would not blame a beaten up Lynashead for applying aqwert's "whatever" comment here. But I do think this is an important announcement. It suggests the story is moving away from the politics and towards the operational side. I am very confident in LAMP operations and their goals in this direction. I am therefore more bullish on Lynas than I have been for some time. A rebound in REE demand would make me even more bullish.
    21 Nov 2012, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone figured out if the environmental group can hold up
    Lynas again? There were questions about another injunction being applied. Sorry my legal terms may be off. Or are we past that now??


    21 Nov 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Based on the comments I've seen on HC, some from people who are likely pretty close to the action, getting containers to the LAMP pretty much broke the back of the opposition. Reports say the containers were moved in the dead of night and under police protection.


    "Further legal challenges to block the plant remain," according to this article
    That may be just for saving face.
    22 Nov 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYC closed up at A$.72 last night, or just uner $.75. I would expect our holiday markets this morning to match this performance...


    A$.75 is, imo, now resistance, and we may see the shares bounce off that point initially early next week.


    News like the first feed news hinted at in current shipment headlines to the LAMP might be sufficient to pierce resistance, but I suspect the next step (production news) will be needed to turn that A$.75 into a potential point of inflection. Production of samples worthy of submission to various customers for their review would be my guess as to the next leg up, probably to something in the $.80's...


    Acceptance by large customers will be a strong news lift, at which point we should see how they handle large and continuous production runs.


    Barring more political difficulties, I would expect us to see customer acceptance perhaps by February, and a ramp toward commercial production in Q2. The LAMP might become cash flow positive earlier, but I estimate Q3 or Q4 2013 (assuming the normal aches and pains associated with starting up a project like this).
    23 Nov 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Na, too bearish TB :-).
    I think the stock goes through $0.80A if the offering finishes smoothly next week which I expect. The ore arrival (and first feed next week) should aid this raising. This also will make a nice reversal in the trading channel for the TA guys as well.


    Production takes about a month. I'd say if the macro picture is neutral Lynas has a real chance at the A$1.00 mark by year's end. That's my prediction: If S&P or ASX is the same or higher by year's end, Lynas (LYC:ASX) finishes the year over A$1.00.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Chi, it will be my pleasure if my cautious estimate proves too low.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • That was a quick ride up. Now after all our troubles once more. A dozen thinks could go wrong, but that may have been a last buy point. I for one, underwater, hope for sure that the road ahead is a bit less rocky. And I hope to be back in the green by the end of the year.


    Tripleblack. I didn't mean any offense but thought the question of a buy point just sitting there all weekend was kind of interesting. Who could know? This one has been impossible to call with the most unusual twists.


    Anyway I've been in for quite a long time (hence) underwater, and am a long time faithful reader of the blog.
    23 Nov 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Welcome to the blog, Camber, and I hope you post often.
    23 Nov 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • How dare MCP rally more than Lyscf today!
    23 Nov 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • Here's why MCP dashed up 19.23% today:

    23 Nov 2012, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • Ahh, thanks
    23 Nov 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Get use to the volatility Moly holders. Those directors might have several, reasons to buy. One is to show they believe in their statements the SEC is now questioning. I would not expect big announcements from Moly on the heels of the buy with the SEC watching either. But FULL DISCLOSURE: I hate everything about Moly and do not trust a word or soul around them.


    I agree with the article on China support of prices. But Moly really needs La and Ce price support to make the margins work with their debt levels. These two elements faced the worst demand destruction. Cerium recycling is a big problem IMO. I realize that is where Moly plans to use SorbX, but sorbX does not create exciting margins and Ce is a large part of Phoenix production. That said, if NEO works out they could be fine. I just find it hard to know how well that is working now and into the long term.
    24 Nov 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • The story that was told and the story that was true...


    Maya, I'm not saying people aren't dumb enough to buy just because the CEO uses some pocket change to add to his holdings. But I think the reporter missed two bigger issues: (1) China is now de facto supporting RE prices to prevent further slide and (2) U.S. Congressional Research Service says global demand for all to rise from 136k MTs to 185k over the next 2 years.
    27 Nov 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Much (high percentage, particularly of the Inner Mongolia mines) of the China rare earth production has been coming as a tiny by product of massive iron mining operations. China has overbuilt this structure to an astonishing degree, and one of the first things the new rulers in Beijing did was dial back the problem (presumably their crony commie-capitalism system now has a new set of cronies bumping older groups from the top slots). One of the motives for building the cartel was to create a structure under which China COULD take steps like this.


    As a geopolitical matter, China has known for some time that the gross over-build in the iron/steel area had real problems. Even their large share of the world markets had reached saturation point, and with ALL their largest customers looking at national security issues combined with economic fallout...


    This situation could extend for a long time.
    27 Nov 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Tripleblack. Didn't mean to offend. Thought it was interesting that the question of a bottom just sat there all weekend. Seemed like no one was going to commit on that one. And who can blame them after this ride. Hopefully we were sitting on a bottom.


    I've held long enough to be underwater, I don't trade, have read the blog for a long time.


    Hope good news just keeps coming.
    23 Nov 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • things
    24 Nov 2012, 05:41 AM Reply Like
  • Even though there far out production wise, Quest and Tasman with another dip are basically a buck a share. Do you think their resource (heavies) are worth a buck, versus the risks of raising funds,etc for production?
    24 Nov 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Other than the top 3 REE plays, I believe the whole sector is currently a trade. Given the likelihood that we are looking at a strong sell-oiff of the beaten down stocks through the end of December for tax reasons, a strategy to pick a low price to hold for a 20-30% short term profit (or to trade in order to accumulate zero or near-zero cost shares longer term) might be a workable strategy. I entered positions in many of these stocks 2 and 3 months back with just that idea, and I plan to pull together the whole list and post results come January.


    Questions yet unanswered are whether or not MCP can actually meet their 7kmt per year promise to the American DOD (which includes quantities of the more valuable critical REE's)... What sort of timeline Lynas develops for building their WA processing plant and developing their Duncan deposit... And whether China will continue to pull back iron ore mining at the large operations where the bulk of their rare earth production comprises a minor byproduct.
    25 Nov 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • I look forward to the list, and your insight. I to think in the near future we may get some further selling, if so, I would consider it a buying opportunity. Just wondering if December may be a better time to begin to buy ?
    25 Nov 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Well... Lynas seems doomed to persist as a component in the local Malaysian political figtht, whether it wants to be or not...



    LYSCF is currently off 4% (LYSDY was matching this, but just plunged to a 10.14% loss on the day).


    First Feed any time now, of course, barring more nonsense in Malaysia.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Meant to mention that I view the current low $.66 pricing for LYSDY as presenting an arbitrage opp for those who can trade LYSCF cheaply.
    26 Nov 2012, 03:46 PM