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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • Rare Earth Elements (REEs) Concentrator Oct. 25 - Nov. 2 106 comments
    Oct 25, 2010 2:32 PM | about stocks: GWMGFIQ, LYSCF, GDLNF

    High time I tried out one of these instablog things.  Apologies to User for borrowing his concept of an insta tasked with concentrating as much collective input as possible - I can only aspire to the high standards he has set in his justly famous Swine Flu concentrator!

    I will be bringing to this concentrator much of the prior commentary I've made on the topic, of course, plus adding frequent new entries.  One of the reasons for creating this blog was to be able to add charts and graphic aids, starting with this amazing chart demonstrating the performance of the 5 primary REE companies I am invested in (and focused upon):  (OTCPK:GWMGF) Great Western - (MCP) MolyCorp - (OTCPK:LYSCF) Lynas - (OTCQX:HUDRF) Hudson Minerals - and (OTC:GDLNF) Greenland Minerals



    This is quite a 3 month chart, of course.  Note that (OTCPK:GWMGF) and (OTC:GDLNF) both took off at the same moment, and have been pacing each other until Greenland finally started to recently pull away (this coincided with Great Western's stock dilution, of course).  Even so, their performance is astounding.

    The other three have formed a very compact group of their own, moving at a more sedate pace, but it should be understood that they are all currently up about 250% over the same short period of time.

    I am also invested in a brand new REE company, (OTCPK:MLLOF) Medallion, and had I included THEM on this chart they would have distorted the whole chart, since they have only been chartable for a few weeks, during which time their stock has doubled, redoubled, and redoubled again.

    For today's REE notes and update, its interesting to note that (OTCQX:HUDRF) has sailed right through the recent REE downdraft, and continues to show its heels, up 9.05% as I write this today.  (MCP) and (OTCPK:MLLOF) are flat, so perhaps they are showing signs of finishing their round of profit taking, while (OTCPK:GWMGF) and (OTCPK:LYSCF) have taken up again with their upward trend, both up well over 1% on the day.

    The following linked article contains a good snapshot of events in China, and I believe reflects many underlying questions which have yet to be resolved concerning rare earth element markets:

    http://www.raremetalblog.com/2010/10/the-london-ree-report-under-estimating-demand.html#tp

    As a general aside, its my opinion (following much research) that the "boutique" market which has been the REE economic space for many years is obsolete.  As events unfold over the coming year, this could well prove to be the most compelling new economic story written. 



    Disclosure: Long GWMGF.PK, MCP, LYSCF.PK, HUDRF.PK, GDLNF.PK, MLLOF.PK

    Disclosure: Long (OTCPK:GWMGF), (OTCPK:LYSCF), (OTCQX:HUDRF), (OTCPK:MLLOF), (MCP), GDLNF.PK)
    Stocks: GWMGFIQ, LYSCF, GDLNF
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Comments (106)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Reposted from my comment made October, 2009:

     

    During the Clinton era, the US dumped its entire strategic stockpile of rare earth metals and minerals - and fans of the China+Clinton conspiracy theories can take that as they will.

     

    At the same time, China was embarking on a program to corner the world's production of rare earths, which they did when they undercut virtually ALL competitor's prices, an easy thing for a nation state masquerading as various corporations to do (ha, something all fans of the current HealthCare bill should think about).

     

    However, this is like any such move, should they then elect to constrict the supply, the price will spike upward, and voila, those older mines located in benighted nations still retaining a tiny capitalist enclave (the US, Australia, Canada and even South Africa spring to mind) re-open their mines, and we're back in the business. If the strategic threat is actually noticed by the leaders of some of these nations (presumably not talking about the U.S. here), they MIGHT even step in and make sure that sufficient stockpiles are stored to prevent a similar gambit in the future...

     

    As for the article, it breaks no new ground, but certainly does sound still another alarm about the 800 pound Chinese gorilla standing over next to the industrial buffet table with a meat cleaver in his paw.

     

    I just lost a little money with AMLM last week, got out quick, though I continue to watch. Several interesting privately held companies sitting on many of the best mines here in the U.S., maybe some of our Canadian contributors can look at what is what there...

     

    Neodymium (lanthanoid ore) is the most frequently cited case, a key ingredient in powerful permanent magnets (all very "green" nowadays, note that every Prius must have a big chunk of this for their motors to work).

     

    I am, however, seeing some fascinating research being done to come up with alternatives, though some of the alternatives just shift from the use of one rare earth to another, LOL.

     

    "Neodymium magnets are both stronger and more affordable than samarium cobalt magnets and are therefore more widely used for most applications. Magnetic permanence under conditions such as vibration, corrosion, electric fields and heat is a crucial factor for magnets used in industrial, automotive and medical equipment, and although neodymium composites have great magnetic force, they easily lose their magnetism under corrosion and relatively low temperatures (200 degrees Celsius). They are also easily chipped or cracked and are therefore almost always given a protective nickel or other metal coating. Samarium magnets, which have good high heat tolerance, are used where neodymium magnets' heat tolerance is too low."

     

    Note the weaknesses of these magnets, then translate their inherent defects into an outdoor environment as part of a massive, rotating and vibrating contraption exposed to extreme temperature differentials...

     

    LOL, maybe the thing to invest in IS a company making replacement magnets for the big GE windmills - it might be a huge business, until GE goes bankrupt or the government subsidies go away.

     

    I bet a design that does not use permanent magents, but electro magnets, is sitting on the shelf. Ironic, no?
    25 Oct 2010, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Triple!
    26 Oct 2010, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Triple, Black: Greetings. I just missed the Greenland Minerals (GDLNF) play as I was being a cheap skate. I did however buy up Great western (GWMGF) at a bargain acquiring the largest block @ $0.15 averaging down from the initial purchase @ $0.25. Thanks for posting this TB I'm sure it will prove invaluable.
    26 Oct 2010, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    TB, Thanks for posting this. I do not know when I can get into SA with my schedule but it sure makes it nice to have the instas that the renegades put up to get a quick look at what is happening in specific sectors.

     

    This is one of those sectors.

     

    Thanks
    26 Oct 2010, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, more flashes from the past, this one from one of my posts last July (from QC #82):

     

    Don't be fooled by the sitrep in Aussiland.

     

    Reed (prior socialist PM) dropped Global Swarming but then pushed through the Mining Act.

     

    The new PM has reinstated Global Swaming (and their own version of Cap & Tax) and is playing politics with the Mining Act.

     

    Net result: Worse than under Reed for the miners (or any other Aussie stock, for that matter).

     

    As for GWM moving, it was selling for $.14 a few weeks back, and it spiked up close to $.20 this week. 40% move in such a short period is pretty active.

     

    This is one of those things that has yet to penetrate the MSM headlines. There is some thought that this might finally happen with the MolyCorp (MCP) IPO, but I'm thinking that this is a 2 part story.

     

    Part 1: The monopoly finally lowers the boom (as it has been threatening to do for a decade), and squeezes supplies. This happened when the Chinese followed through on their threats to cut supplies to a trickle.

     

    Part 2: Actual shortages start to shut down production and pinch supply of downstream products. Obviously this has NOT happened yet.

     

    Many investors operate with the mistaken idea that the Markets (and by extension, the pundits with the power to "move" markets) are Smart. Better to view them as a very dull mule standing there waiting for the rare passer-by to get their attention with a 2x4 upside their head.

     

    Until the actual shortages show up, and that will be downstream from when the major users run through the supplies they squirrelled away (some buying blackmarket REEs from outlaw Chinese miners).

     

    This is a POTENTIAL shortage of key minerals and metals.

     

    Future likely scenario: Shortages as they occur will have the mule blinking and swatting away flies and looking around dimly for new supplies. At that point the only company ready to do anything for those early emergency/crucial items is likely to be the one closest to finishing a vertically integrated system.

     

    IF the planet reacts quickly (and IF the WTO doesn't convince the Chinese that their scheme for global dominance is a bad idea), the Chinese are likely to discover that they can, indeed, ship plenty of REEs to satisfy the "emergency" shortfall, and the danger that they will undercut all other suppliers at prices too low to match will once again raise its head.

     

    The window when companies like Lynas and GWM can make hay may be very narrow, and the time to act when it arrives may be very short leadtime.

     

    My gauge of the situation is that GWM MIGHT be able to crank up their mine in South Afrika in time to get their foot in the door, but that Lynas cannot, and that the timing of the Chinese is pretty darn good.

     

    If NO other alternatives present themselves and the stockpiles run out, what WILL the world do?

     

    I own a chunk of GWM, just because I am hoping they can pull off a miracle in the nick of time (and get richly rewarded for it) - and also because I hate the idea of Beijing gaining this sort of monopoly power.
    26 Oct 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Very astute observations and well received as well. I was buying (GWMGF) for the same reasons back then. Now that it's trading around $0.40 makes it look like genius having bought at those levels. Should the thorium reactor designs take off Great western will be in a great position to profit there as well.
    26 Oct 2010, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Although much ado is made about China blocking shipments of REEs to Europe and the United States, it is Japan who consumes 60% of the planets yearly REE production (virtually 100% of which used to come from China).

     

    With no shipments from China, Japan has fallen back on plan B (sign agreements with Lynas (LYSCF.PK) for output when they get their new Malaysian plant up and running, perhaps as early as late next year) and buy up REE resources all over Vietnam and around SE Asia...

     

    And for the short term, plan C:

     

    Recycle old cellphones, laptops and electronics for their REE content:

     

    english.ntdtv.com/ntdt...
    26 Oct 2010, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    My wife watches Japanese news every night and REE's recycling is in the news all the time.

     

    They are scared and desperate at the moment. Recycling is thier fall back and it is fully implemented.

     

    The Japanese have a REE mine in every cell phone etc.....I mentioned that they had a real mine one once upon a time, according to a friend of mine over there.

     

    I will be able to discuss that with him again this winter when I visit. Maybe it will soon be opened again if not already opened. I have no idea what the accuracy of the info is, or type of REE produced, but he is a well informed chap who was the principle at a middle school as well as a monk at a temple. We ring in the temple bell at the temple every new year with his family. 108 rings in the freezing cold, hot saki and good whisky help. The Japanese have no religeous restrictions on drinking.

     

    spell check has left the site
    26 Oct 2010, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    Nissan is addressing their own problems acquiring REEs. This follows news of Toyota doing the same.

     

    Nissan intends to redesign their hybrids and electric cars to utilize fewer REEs, but that is just another stopgap to the problem. Mention is made of as much as "a one year stockpile" of materials, but other estimates by the Japanese government put the number at about 6 months supply. Either way, the race is on.

     

    (GWMGF.PK) SHOULD be leading the way, but I have not seen them getting out of the blocks as fast as I think they should. I believe Lynas (LYSCF.PK) is pulling even with GWM, despite the Canadian firm's large lead, simply because they have the edge on the mining and concentrating side of the equation. This ASSUMES (that scary word) that Lynas can deliver the key thing they lack (and which GWM has ready to go), the final processing facility that they are building in Malaysia.

     

    Should Great Western get out of neutral in South Afrika, this could end up a very close race. Lynas is already signing contracts for delivery with Japanese conglomerates (whereas GWM lost their longstanding agreement with Toyota last year).

     

    Can Lynas hit a home run from a hole in the mud in Malaysia, in 6 months to a year? Can GWM get the old South Afrikan mine up and running over about the same span? Those are two very good questions.
    26 Oct 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    Bet on both horses. Giddy-up.
    26 Oct 2010, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Market Wire is reporting that Great Western (GWMGF) has ordered a new furnace for the U.K. Facility they purchased in 2008 which will increase plant capacity by 50%
    26 Oct 2010, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They recently added another LAMP line. This is the area where they clearly lead Lynas. And they are building to match the anticipated output from the mine in South Afrika.

     

    There are some hints in recent news that they might have finally completed the most recent engineering study and safety review at the Steenkampskraal mine. They SHOULD have enough cash on hand (having just diluted their stock about 50%) to fund the re-opening, too.
    26 Oct 2010, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (GLTR): a new ETF with 4 precious metals. SA articles. List balancing and a little additional info, like expense ratio.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Physically backed.

     

    Thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2010, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If one is trying to flip physical coins or bullion every year or so, this sort of etf makes much more sense (and has lower fees and maintenance costs to boot). I would have to noodle through that fixed ratio formula for the stock (based on .003 oz gold, 1.1 oz silver, etc, etc) rather closely to try to figure out whether or not I liked it, though.

     

    As for a similar idea for REEs, there is Dacha Capital (DCHAF.PK): www.dachacapital.com/

     

    I am considering entering a position in this company today...
    26 Oct 2010, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Update: Just bought initial position in (DCHAF.PK).
    26 Oct 2010, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting pattern emerging this morning in the REE stocks.

     

    (MCP) is surging up 8.02% on a steep incline. (GWMGF.PK) is up a fraction as well...

     

    HOWEVER, all the lesser lights are down 6-10%.

     

    This looks like the hot money is seeking to pick a short term "winner", rather than determine good investments for the mid or long term. I view this as the predictable result of chaos created by multitudes of noobies invading the space and creating havoc while thrashing through their learning curves.

     

    As I indicated earlier in the QC, I expect this bewildering ride to continue through the next few weeks and the next election, at least, before settling down.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just added more (MLLOF.PK) and (GDLNF.PK) on the dip. This is my near term strategy.

     

    Watching (ARAFF.PK) which was down over 10% yesterday and again today. I suspect it is near its bottom, but we will have to wait and see. Arafura's trading is still halted in Australia.
    26 Oct 2010, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Trip: Below is a partial list of REE companies; when they will, or expect to commence production:

     

    The Lynas (LYSCF) Mount Weld concentration plant is coming on line this December. Their Malaysian state of the art processing plant is scheduled to commence in the third quarter of 2011.

     

    Arafura's (ASX: ARU) feasability study has them coming on line in 2013; if all goes well with their offering.

     

    Avalon Rare Metals is Scheduled for production in 2015.

     

    Commerce Resources owns three projects in Canada. All are still in feasability/drilling stage.

     

    Greenland Minerals and Energy expects production to commence production in 2015. Mine construction will not commence until 2013.

     

    Great Western is already processing rare earths through two of its subsidiaries, Less Common Metals, based in Birkenhead, England and the Troy, MI plant. No need to write about South African interests, as you all over that.

     

    26 Oct 2010, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, that's good intel, Maya.

     

    The progress toward the concentrator line going live in December looks good, though Lynas IS building a facility based upon their proprietory methods (and its both the first pilot plant AND their intial production facility). Speaking from experience building and shaking down new, state of the art facilities, they can expect problems at first.

     

    But I really do HOPE they pull it off. I've got money riding on it!

     

    Their Malaysian plant is less experimental, but its also somewhat earlier in the construction cycle than Mt. Weld.

     

    Arafura's plans are less well known, but I suspect that (given the price tag) theirs will be a simpler mine setup with the idea being to sell their ore and/or concentrate to someone like Lynas to finish processing. They could also sell them to the new REE Cartel in China, though I discount those overtures at least for the next several years while the Cartel is establishing its hold on things. The Japanese are aggressively pursuing their own path, and I would expect them to purchase the out-take from outfits like (ARAFF.PK) to stockpile. The "recent ugliness" with China, though not unforeseen, has nonetheless galvanized the Japanese into action on all fronts. The Prime Minister of Japan has been holding meetings on this topic with the Prime Minister of India over the past several days...

     

    India produces small quantities of REEs, with long-standing relationships with their Japanese customers which go back over 50 years. It would appear that Japanese mining equipment, money and expertise is about to make an appearance in the ancient placer REE mines in India.

     

    Avalon (AVARF.PK) is the junior miner which pops into my head when I think of someone in this space looking for an acquirer. By 2015, I think the current situation will have been put into place and the next steps laid on rails.
    26 Oct 2010, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    chinadigitaltimes.net/.../

     

    TB, A site that has good articles on REE's that you might add to your blog. China's perspective.
    26 Oct 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, some of the fog of war regarding recent moves in the REE stocks is coming clear...

     

    JPMorgan was holding a considerable amount of Lynas (LYSCF.PK) stock, and rating them a Buy/Hold. Recently they sold those shares, THEN downgraded the stock to a Sell. This precipitated turmoil in the REE space. JPMorgan listed as their reason for this move (other than profits for them, of course) as concerns over the financing for the Malaysian facility Lynas is building. (This is an amazingly vague, even blurry, and totally unsubstantiated bit of obfuscation - that financing is in place and building the facility, its not any mystery at all).

     

    I am treating this situation as a buying opp, as I suspect is JPMorgan (odd coincidence, that).

     

    This is still early in the story cycle, and as I mentioned, the fog of (market) war is thick enough to cut into steaks.

     

    So: Adding (LYSCF.PK) today.
    27 Oct 2010, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): JPM cuts to neutral from overweight.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.marketwire.com/pre...

     

    (DCHAV.PK) is selling some of their stockpile, at a large profit:

     

    [quote] Dacha Strategic Metals Inc. ("Dacha" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:DSM)(OTCQX:DCHAF) is pleased to report the trade of 20,000 kilograms ("kg") (20 metric tonnes) of +99.99% pure Gadolinium Oxide for a total consideration of US$1,180,000. This transaction represents a 25% premium to the replacement cost of the material as at September 28, 2010. Dacha acquired the Gadolinium Oxide in June 2010 at a cost of US$17.49/kg, or US$349,800 and was being held in its Busan, South Korea facility. Total return on this transaction was US$830,200 or a 237% gain in the value of our Gadolinium Oxide held in inventory since acquisition. [quote]
    27 Oct 2010, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Germany is getting into the REE market scramble. Inevitable (if tardy).

     

    More interesting is the announcement that there will finally be an REE-ETF:

     

    [quote] Van Eck Global is hosting a media briefing tomorrow at 335 Madison Avenue in New York, on the case for a rare metals/strategic metals ETF. Full details are available from Aaron Siegel, MacMillan Communications. 212-473-4442. aaron@macmillancom.com My guess is that 2011 will see the arrival of a REE ETF. [quote]
    27 Oct 2010, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » online.wsj.com/article...

     

    Germany has now noticed that REEs are essential for their industrial future. Remember my verbal cartoon (back in July, but referenced once again upstream in this blog) about the mule needing a 2x4 upside his noggin?
    27 Oct 2010, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » af.reuters.com/article...

     

    Looks like the American government will once again fail to protect our national interests. What a non-surprise. Goooh is absolutely right - these drones need to be euthanized and put out of our misery.
    27 Oct 2010, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Death eaters probably made some back door deal with China at the G20. OTOH there are so many pressing issues for the lame ducks to attend to, this abstract notion of REE as a strategic asset will probably be on the back burner, or a slow boat to China.
    27 Oct 2010, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, that rumor is certainly floating around, along with one that China will be increasing the value of the yuan by 30%...

     

    All fantasies, of course.
    27 Oct 2010, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    Somewhere in Washington DC a lobotomist has been very busy.

     

    Where is Dr. Kevorkian when we need him.
    27 Oct 2010, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    CNBC: Rare earth ETF to begin trading tomorrow. I gues we look for a huge pop in equities, and after a while, a down trend in all the REE stocks. Based on the effects of other ETFs, we'll see some very strong correlation among all the REE stocks included in the ETF.

     

    I don't know the name, yet.

     

    HardToLove

     

    Bought LYSCF for me and wifey, small qties.
    27 Oct 2010, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (REMX) is the name of the ETF.

     

    From Van Eck, here's the press release.

     

    etfdailynews.com/blog/.../

     

    ... operating expense of .57%

     

    ... a rules based, modified capitalization weighted, float adjusted index intended to give investors a means of tracking the overall performance of publicly traded companies primarily engaged in a variety of activities that are related to the producing, refining and recycling of rare earth and strategic metals and minerals.

     

    The press release has a link to the prospectus, highlights some of the rules and re-balancing criteria.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2010, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MCP) and (GWMGF.PK) are obviously included in the new ETF. (MCP) is up 11.6%, and (GWMGF.PK) is up 4.20%. (HUDRF.PK) is also up 5.27%, while (LYSCF.PK) Lynas is down 3.27% (but that is a marked improvement from earlier this morning.

     

    (GDLNF.PK) is down 4.67% (not great, but also improving earlier in the day), and (MLLOF.PK) is now flat, whereas it was showing a strong decline before.

     

    (DCHAF.PK) Dacha is down 2.25%. I would doubt that it would be included in the new ETF, but we won't really know until we have the list.

     

    (REE) is also up 11.91%, indicating that having a primary listing on a major exchange gets you onto the new ETF.

     

    I have been avoiding (REE) before this, but its clear that they are going to have a strong weighting in the new ETF.

     

    I had a feeling last week that the REE ETF topic was about to spring out at us...
    27 Oct 2010, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    The new REE ETF will only have stocks in it that have above $150M market cap. (GWMGF) barely qualifies. If Yahoo!'s market cap for(LYSCF) is correct, MC of $48.67, Lynas won't qualify.
    27 Oct 2010, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Often the financial information for the ADRs and pink sheet foreign entries on Yahoo are incorrect (or just reflect the values of the pink sheet activity without the home market numbers).

     

    In Australian dollars (which are very close to American dollars) on the ASX exchange they have a market cap of over $2.5billion.

     

    www.reuters.com/financ...
    27 Oct 2010, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great Western, since its on a Canadian exchange, is pretty close. I'm not sure why Yahoo only gets the Canadian listings pretty close...

     

    tmx.quotemedia.com/quo...
    27 Oct 2010, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    New dude appointed to GWMGF's board of directors:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    27 Oct 2010, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is my comment on the REE topic from October 6:

     

    Added more (LYSCF.PK), (NATUF.PK), (PAL) and (CPST) today.

     

    (MCP) is going through another round of profit taking, triggered by hitting $29 again.

     

    I would expect this cycle to have at least one more round trip before the venture partners who brought MolyCorp to market have taken their profits and balanced their positions.

     

    I now have my answer as to why MolyCorp management has been so unexpectedly passive concerning their development (and potential M&A) plans.

     

    So we have at least 2 or 3 more weeks and another profit taking cycle (if I am correct) before any meaningful news out of them.

     

    Lynas, meanwhile, has overcome construction and development problems with their concentrator plant at Mt. Weld, Australia. Now slightly ahead of schedule, and with some important government regulatory reviews behind them, this portion of their plan is tracking very well.

     

    I am still reviewing what I can learn about their Malaysian project, which will be the key to lining up MORE corporate customers from places like Japan. Lynas is still projecting an intial trial run sometime in the 3rd Quarter, 2011. This places them years behind Great Western (GWMGF.PK) in this area, but MUCH closer to their target markets in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia.

     

    They will have to ramp up their LAMP installation schedule very quickly once Malaysia comes on line, but that seems doable now.

     

    lynascorp.com/page...

     

    Their pricing estimates (this link is a bit dated, current prices are higher than those in May) and distribution of production is comparable to that of MolyCorp, but weak in the heavier element range, where (GWMGF.PK) COULD be a factor if they can quit doing studies and start building something in South Afrika.

     

    It Great Western is not purchased by a larger company (MCP) within 6-9 months, its likely they will miss their window of opportunity altogether because of their slow rampup on the mining side.

     

    Once Lynas has the profitable Japanese, Korean and Southeast Asian markets sewed up (which is likely to happen over the same 6-9 month period, at least in terms of future contracts), GWM could be left in the dust.

     

    I am also reviewing some smaller REE juniors which might be takeover targets for Lynas.
    27 Oct 2010, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This one is from September, and is a response to OG's asking about HREEs (heavy rare earth elements), with the idea being that MolyCorp (and other leading stocks) don't include any of these more rare metals:

     

    :All of them. This is one of the misconceptions we commonly see - that (MCP) MolyCorp, for instance, will not be producing quantities of heavy REE metals. They will, though the dominant production will be in the lighter REEs, the sheer volume they are capable of producing means they will also be selling lots of the heavy items.

     

    Lynas (LYSCF.PK) has more of the heavies than MolyCorp, but they are behind somewhat in the development cycle (mine wise), though perhaps actually ahead of MolyCorp with their Malaysia plans.

     

    (GWMGF.PK) of course has a good source of heavier elements (plus thorium) in their South Afrikan mine, and several other hree deposit projects in North America.

     

    (GDLNF.PK) or Greenland Minerals (Aussie company) has extremely heavy reserves (not surprising, since they are mixed with an incredibly rich deposit of Uranium), with political barriers to overcome (ie, that Uranium and the hold-over law from Danish rule and their zero-tolerance for Uranium mining - a nutball rule probably intended to "stop the nukes", which would appear to be an abject failure, of course).

     

    (HUDRF.PK) is another Canadian miner (they also do diamonds) sitting on an incredibly rich Greenland REE deposit, though without the Uranium baggage (or advantage, should their mining laws change). Plenty of HREEs all around.

     

    Medallion (MLLOF.PK) has just two projects, one a solid middle-ground REE deposit, and the other one a Labrador deposit with signs of readily accessible HREEs. Unlike some of the GWM sites, Bird has selected relatively easily developed deposits amenable to open pit operations. Add a concentration mill, and voila, you have a going concern (perfect for a larger miner with their own refining capability).
    27 Oct 2010, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The followup comment from September 30:

     

    I read that too. That is another aspect of the market forces in the REE space - like the mining picture, consumption is chaotic and poorly understood, and is often extremely opague. It is rumored that some Japanese coroporations have megatons of REEs squirreled away which they purchased over the years from outlaw Chinese miners (now probably in jail, while their mines are subsumed into the government's pet REE cartel).

     

    Simular speculation I have encountered in the past pointed out the logic that the export quotas (now fully engaged and perhaps test driven over Japan last week) would motivate Chinese shippers to ship as many of the most expensive metals as possible. The quotas are based upon weights shipped, not relative scarcity or price...

     

    With the current panic involving REE supplies, its probable that prices will behave irrationally. Even after China finishes assembling their cartel and publishes their "unified pricing", its likely that the actual price ex-China will be much higher.

     

    Signs of this have already been reported, and this is assuredly also part of the Communist central planner's intent - to "encourage" other nations to move their industrial base to China, along with their high technology.

     

    Pricing for REEs is often a reflection of actual scarcity rather than inate value - and some REEs are scarce because they LACK a large market, so the analysis of potential values based upon "ounces in the ground" is a path fraught with peril. Confusing these commodities with gold could result in a bad investment. I suspect much of the hooplah over HREE's (heavy ree's) is making this crucial mistake. There is also much confusion over "potential" future demand for certain REEs, vs ACTUAL existing markets. Some of these are very much pie in the sky efforts, and throw up much of the fog of war obscurring the REE battlefield.
    27 Oct 2010, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The third in the Sept. 30 series:

     

    TOPIC: Why I chose to invest in Medallion (MLLOF.PK) today instead of the other REE stocks I reviewed recently, including (AREM.OB), (AVARF.PK), (MTCEF.PK), (NEMFF.PK), (QSURD), (REE), (RAREF.PK), (STZYF.PK), (TASXF.PK), and (UURAF.PK), among others on Canadian exchanges...

     

    I've been tracking these stocks during the recent profit taking, and I noticed Medallion swimming against the current - yesterday, for instance, showing a smart gain while the herd was still experiencing 6-7% downside. This focused my attention, and as several pundits have observed, this herd is increasingly moving in concert with (MCP).

     

    The whole purpose of my study was to identify small exploration companies which might be targets in any buyout cycle (the time is absolutely ripe for this, imo). Medallion stood out in this respect.

     

    This company also has an excellent CEO, which is the key determining factor in this literally rarified market. Bird is a force to be reckoned with, and likely to generate impressive results. His original concepts regarding open pit REE mining (echoing recent innovations in the gold mining industry) make sense to me.

     

    This is a tiny, new REE company just starting out, and therefore a highly risky investment. Everyone should, as always, do their own due dilligence and make their own decisions.
    27 Oct 2010, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • powerless
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Great Western seems to have it all, (heavy ree's, multiple locations, final processing (huge)) and the U.S.'s strongest ally and trade partner. Despite the recent dilution they are still the strongest position miner among North American producers. Molycorp is a joke by comparison despite its unwarranted attention and run-up.
    28 Oct 2010, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REE morning Update: REEs breaking out.

     

    (ARAFF.PK) up 9.45%
    (LYSCF.PK) up 6.80%
    (GWMGF.PK) up 6.09%
    (REE) up 5.015%
    (MLLOF.PK) up 4.80%
    (HUDRF.PK) up 2.91%
    (GDLNF.PK) up 2.41%
    (DCHAF.PK) up 2.27%

     

    New REE ETF (REMX) on line...
    28 Oct 2010, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Buying (REMX) and (LYSCF) today.
    28 Oct 2010, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good overview of the uses to which REEs are put, plus general background data:

     

    af.reuters.com/article...
    28 Oct 2010, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    From zero hedge on lynas.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    28 Oct 2010, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. All true. I enjoyed the single comment, very funny, about becoming too bearish from reading ZH, and cashing out way too early...
    28 Oct 2010, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): heh! Somebody just came in and took out the $1.50 bids to force price down. Had been sitting bid/ask $1.50/$1.50 for some time. Decent size order sizes too. Not one sale at the offer.

     

    Here we go with the manipulations and shorts.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Inevitable. JPM is involved, its as predictable as gravity. Cycle will continue through the next week, maybe more.
    28 Oct 2010, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    ok, the bid at 1.48 was me.
    28 Oct 2010, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    It wasn't the bid that was the issue, it was the sudden take out of *all* the bids 1 penny away @ $1.49. BTW, I should have said $1.49/$1.50. Good volume too.

     

    Normally, there'll be a little back and forth where the sale is at the offer on some, then at the bid, ...

     

    I've been watching exactly this sort of manipulation on CPST for a *long* time. If it's just once and a while, well that's normal too. But when you see it as a normal course of events, it spells trouble.

     

    Dollar weak usually = commodities strong, upward pressure. When JPM and their ilk do what they do, we often see the price manipulated afterwards over a period of time.

     

    A real opportunity for true believers to buy *if* they have the stomach for what may follow.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    I also heard JPM is being implicated in that silver manipulation...
    3 Nov 2010, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IMHO this is a buyiing opp (short term), because of this article in the NYT: www.nytimes.com/2010/1...

     

    China (which never halted shipments, according to them) has resumed (the never-halted) shipments.

     

    Of course, the new, greatly reduced export quotas are still in place, so whatever shipments take place (assuming the never-halted shipments are not halted again) will be about 10% of demand.

     

    So the reaction in the markets is a collective IQ test, again in my opinion, and comprises a buying opportunity (as soon as China finishes the dregs of the 2010 quotas, and halts shipments again - at which time they WILL admit to halting shipments, of course).

     

    Clear as REE concentrate (ie, mud), ain't it?
    28 Oct 2010, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    Some of the REEs did a reverse march and started to drop today, MCP in particular. I went into the news to see what was up and found an article from tech ticker that gave a very negative view on REEs:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/tech...

     

    Personally, I suspect that this is a just off-the-top-of-the-head sort of explanation by someone who doesn't believe (or understand) the geopolitical implications.
    28 Oct 2010, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. Now, if the roles were reversed, and it was some dastardly American megacorporation squatting on 97% of the planet's supply and calling the shots...

     

    Katie, bar the door.

     

    But everyone knows the kindly Chicoms would never stoop so low as to take advantage of folks in foreign lands.

     

    Then there's the "everybody knows the rare earths aren't really all that rare" (except the ones which are about as common as uranium, of course, which is to say, virtually "unobtanium").

     

    This ignorance or venality (or stupidity, I've have to have more samples to determine which) is something which can move markets, of course, particularly in an area with such widespread lack of knowledge - and pertaining to the opague conditions in China.
    28 Oct 2010, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    "ignorance or venality (or stupidity, I've have to have more samples to determine which)"

     

    Hm, you're not excluding all but one are you? That would be ignoring a large part of the applicable data set, IMO. ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Weeeeel, it WAS a (LYSCF.PK) buying opp. Spike has already filled, now Lynas is up 1.36% again and rising.

     

    Same thing with (ARAFF.PK), back up to 6.30% improvement on the day.

     

    (GWMGF.PK) is also improving, now down just 1.81%.

     

    Main stock getting the attention of the short manipulators is the big target, (MCP). Down 10.27% yet, but now trending upward as well, toward the down 8% line. May be a buying opp.
    28 Oct 2010, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Somebody's bullish. Block trade of 49,700 @ 1.4975 = $68.435.75.

     

    I think y'all have given a winner to the list.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2010, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, the more I look at the bungled information floating around, the more I'm convinced that this is a buying opp.

     

    I already own all these except (ARAFF.PK) and (REE), btw.

     

    IF I were looking to buy this list, these would be my targets:

     

    (MCP) Buy@ $32.00 (it is very near this right now)

     

    (ARAFF.PK) Buy@ $1.20 (and I might get some if it hits this low over the next half hour)

     

    (MLLOF.PK) Buy@ $.60 (it is practically at that point already)

     

    (GDLNF.PK) Buy@ $.70 (volatile and news-vulnerable stock)

     

    (LYSCF.PK) Buy @ $1.50 (and yes, its at that point right now, and indeed, I bought some this afternoon)

     

    (HUDRF.PK) Buy@ $1.10 (near to that price, I will be watching this one closely tomorrow, and will add if I can get it at $1.10 or less)

     

    (GWMGF.PK) Buy@ $.40

     

    (REE) - Not Rated, I have not been following this stock - I have observed that it is extremely volatile, and each time I have read it into my research, it has fallen out the bottom as not particularly attractive to me. It IS, however, listed on the AMEX, which gives it a certain cachet.

     

    (DCHAF.PK) - Not Rated, I have only recently purchased an initial position in this stock, and I lack a feel for it just yet.
    28 Oct 2010, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    Triple - Thanks for the updated assessment. I have calculated some buy prices and we are within pennies on most. I'm a little lower in most cases as I tend to be pretty cheap, but your independent assessment confirms that I am at least in the ball park.
    28 Oct 2010, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, the $32 (MCP) looks like its going to go away fast in the final 20 minutes of trading. Already close to $34 and climbing...

     

    In case anyone doubts it, these are high risk, speculative stocks and we should all do thorough due diligence before investing.
    28 Oct 2010, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MCP) ended up at $34.21, and is still trading higher AH. At the least it was a short term buying opp.
    28 Oct 2010, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    I show MCP closing at $33,89 and down to $33.72 in AF. Still, I think you may be right that the low for the day may have been the best buying opportunity. I tend to miss a lot of initial positions because I put my target just a little too low.
    28 Oct 2010, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Probably did close at $33.89 - I was writing that at 4:12 and just pulled it off the scroll. Half hour later you were seeing it a bit lower, but AH reporting is always squirrely. Point I was trying to make was that it was a day-trade anywhere in the $32's (low for the day was $32.20).

     

    The numbers I get from FSC, Schwab and Etrade vary sometimes. (Not to mention whatever Yahoo generates).

     

    My initial targets are often pretty low compared to the charting. As I get to know their cycles and situation, I loosen up a little. The targets I put up today had a LOT to do with the situation. The news reporting was just simply misleading, and that created an opportunity, whereas more general situations (overall maraket, economic fundamentals, macronews, politics, what have you) are more understandable.

     

    Today we saw what I had thought we might see after the most recent G20 finance ministers meet - a misconception that China would start shipping "like before", when in fact what we are seeing are the tiny remnants of the 2010 export quotas. And those quotas have not been relaxed from the draconian numbers published 2 months ago, and then drastically cut again last month.

     

    China's entire export quota for 2011 for the entire planet will not fill 50% of what Japan, alone, requires. And they intend to ship those dribs and drabs in, well, dribs and drabs. They won't ship the entire pile all at once in January, but spread it out over the entire 12 month period.

     

    This is just simple 7th grade math. The difference between China shipping nothing - or 10% of the demand - still means 90% goes unfilled.

     

    This is a rather surreal event. Its as if we are all passive bystanders looking at a man bleeding to death on the sidewalk. Someone says "Shouldn't we do something to help?", but a nearby voice of xpert authority says "No, he'll be OK, see, he's almost stopped bleeding now".

     

    Needless to say, one DOES stop bleeding eventually, though it can signify "death" as easily as "recovery".

     

    LOL, reminds me of how the BLS handles unemployment statistics.
    28 Oct 2010, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    PBS just reported that China has lifted it's export ban. I'm searching now for a news release to see if more details are available. But if China does have only 15 years (IIRCC) supply, I hope we don't make the wrong move on this news, but we probably will.

     

    HardToLove

     

    NY Times article, don't know how long the link is good for.

     

    www.nytimes.com/2010/1...
    28 Oct 2010, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. And those who don't pay close attention are hearing "lifting export ban" WITHOUT THINKING "there's still an export quota system that allows only a fraction of what the planet needs to operate".

     

    Its apparent that this misconception is strongly in play. Eventually sanity and knowledge will percolate out, and the buying opportunity will go away. It really never hung around for Lynas, and its of limited utility with the rest of the stocks I track.

     

    Today the only one I see hovering at my Buy@ target is (MLLOF.PK), which I might add more to my pile shortly (still watching to see which way it jumps). Since I already have a quantity of this stock with I bought at a small fraction of the current price, I'm not real eager...
    29 Oct 2010, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Lol..funny analogy, yet so outrageously true!
    3 Nov 2010, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    I just finished an article in Fortune magazine (not my favorite, but I needed to use miles or lose them) on the Chinese government's initiative in electric cars. They want at least 5 million electric cars on the road in China by 2020. They are building the smart grid and plan to build out the charging stations to support it. Right now they have pilot programs going on with taxis in 26 major cities. They are collecting the data needed to determine as much as possible on electric car use before they build out the charging infrastructure. They are even testing battery changing stations where drivers can get a new battery in less time than it takes to fill a tank with gas.

     

    The point here is that they are determined to dominate the electric car manufacturing industry and that requires some REEs. This is just one of the industries dependent upon REEs that they want to dominate, so it makes a lot of sense for them strategically to reduce exports. This was just one more piece to the puzzle, and while probably not any more important than any of the others already presented, it just helped me to see more of the big picture.

     

    Now that I understand more sides of their motivation, I can't see the long-term price for REEs going anywhere but up.
    28 Oct 2010, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The match is pretty daunting, actually. Multiplying even the most sedate estimates of REE demand which is going to come on line over the next decade has us short of REE supplies almost immediately. This is, of course, a generality - we are likely to see SOME REEs (there are at least 17 different elements involved, and some include similar elements which share the market) in surplus because of the normal chaos and mixture which flows from mining operations.

     

    Still, all the estimates project a demand curve shooting almost straight up, and a supply curve currently going in the opposite direction. Until some of these juniors come on line and start adding supply, it IS a worrisome situation, and not surprising (or illogical) that China would stop exporting REEs they need for their own industry. This of course paints the kindest possible picture of the situation, but when this "best case" image is so worrisome, imagine if there really IS something to the darker suspicions?
    29 Oct 2010, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    China crushed the other REE industries by dropping the price (past)so low. I bet in a few years they will rue that day as their supplies begin to dwindle. I would think long prior to that day they will have an industry so dependent on REE's they will be the main driver in the (then) high price of REE's.

     

    God has a sense of humor.
    29 Oct 2010, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Attendees at the major REE confabs held in China over the past 2 years have come back with stories of worried Chinese industrialists probing for news as to when they might be able to start buying REEs from MolyCorp, Lynas, GWM, etc.

     

    Its easy to look at this as some sort of mind game, but I see nothing wrong with taking them at their word.

     

    The truth is that the REE narrative does NOT need an REE blockade from China for there to be a strong logic behind the investment - and future growth toward a big money industry.
    29 Oct 2010, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    DG - That is exactly what I am thinking. Eventually China will be importing REEs by the boatload to sustain its industries and the world prices will climb. I think this is why they are attempting to become the global price setting authority now; because in the future they will be in no position to set prices. I suspect that they are trying to put off the inevitable as long as possible.

     

    If China could buy up all the mineable REE deposits in the world today, they wouldn't hesitate. Fortunately the Australian government sniffed out enough of the plan to keep themselves from giving away the goose and others have acknowledged the lesson.

     

    So maybe it was best that all the other mines and deposits were allowed to lay dormant during times of low prices and now, as they become more and more valuable, the nations that own them can develop them for greater benefit to their own economies.

     

    Now all we need is to replace our tax system with the Fair Tax and draw all that new industrial expansion back home to Momma USA along with the jobs we need so desperately.
    29 Oct 2010, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yowza!!!

     

    You could not be more right, sir.

     

    On that note....

     

    Buying more (LYSCF.PK) and (MLLOF.PK).
    29 Oct 2010, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    Lets see if this works. The list of company's in the new REE ETF

     

    Fund Holdings as of 10/28/2010
    Holding Ticker Shares Value %net asets
    1 Lynas Corp Ltd LYC AU 110,038 $169,962 8.63%
    2 Iluka Resources Ltd ILU AU 25,034 $165,704 8.42%
    3 Titanium Metals Corp TIE US 6,376 $123,949 6.29%
    4 Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc TCM CN 10,930 $116,997 5.94%
    5 RTI International Metals Inc RTI US 3,562 $110,956 5.63%
    6 OSAKA Titanium Technologies Co 5726 JP 2,200 $100,350 5.10%
    7 China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd 769 HK 188,000 $99,579 5.06%
    8 Neo Material Technologies Inc NEM CN 17,056 $98,281 4.99%
    9 Molycorp Inc MCP US 2,892 $98,010 4.98%
    10 China Molybdenum Co Ltd 3993 HK 126,000 $94,036 4.78%
    11 Cia Minera Autlan SAB de CV AUTLANB MM 39,100 $85,783 4.36%
    12 Kenmare Resources PLC KMR LN 257,892 $79,233 4.02%
    13 Hunan Non-Ferrous Metals - H 2626 HK 204,000 $78,379 3.98%
    14 Toho Titanium Co Ltd 5727 JP 3,000 $77,864 3.95%
    15 Avalon Rare Metals Inc AVL CN 16,746 $72,617 3.69%
    16 Rare Element Resources Ltd REE US 5,948 $67,212 3.41%
    17 Ferbasa-Ferro Ligas da Bahia FESA4 BZ 8,000 $58,830 2.99%
    18 Net Other Assets / Cash 0 $58,152 2.95%
    19 General Moly Inc GMO US 11,894 $51,144 2.60%
    20 International Ferro Metals Ltd IFL LN 78,762 $37,383 1.90%
    21 Quest Rare Minerals Ltd QRM CN 7,592 $35,294 1.79%
    22 Galaxy Resources Ltd GXY AU 22,952 $34,437 1.75%
    23 5N Plus Inc VNP CN 5,226 $34,350 1.74%
    24 Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo 4082 JP 600 $20,578 1.05%
    29 Oct 2010, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting list. Extremely light the Chinese REE cartel (most of which is imbedded deep within huge steel and aluminum companies). Lots of Japanese REE traders and brokers. Interesting that they are including the familiar (TIE) titanium play. Idea must be to include other strategic industrial metals... Wonder if they will be including things like tungsten (NATUF.PK)...

     

    Weighting is by market cap, looks like, which makes sense...

     

    Looks like they aren't done by a long shot. If as Maya reported yesterday they are looking at market caps over $150m, GWM might make the cut at the bottom of the list. Total invested is pretty wimpy, according to this list. Their number 1 investment in Lynas is less than $170k
    29 Oct 2010, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    OK, turns out the "REE ETF" is mostly about other strategic metals, and only partly about REE's.

     

    Plus due to the opacity of the Chinese markets (non-surprise, here), they can't include about 90% of the planet's REE production and refining in the ETF.

     

    Perhaps the other ETF efforts underway (there has been at least one other serious attempt mentioned recently, and I recall rumors of several other concepts being floated) will be more narrowly focused.

     

    Dacha Capital (DCHAF.PK) is of course predicated upon holding the physical metals (and in the highest purity available, too). This might still be a good alternative for the physical metal purist...

     

    I have chosen not to further pursue the new "REE" ETF (REMX) at this time, though its involvement with strategic metals might ultimately make sense in some cohesive manner.
    29 Oct 2010, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    While I am an advocate of diversification, especially when investing in a new sector like REEs (picking one winner out of the bunch is like playing Russian roulette, IMO), I am not impressed by the lack of breadth in the EFT as shown. When so many of the more promising options are excluded on a market cap basis and they have to include other metal miners to fill it out, I suspect they are more likely to miss some of the best current potential. Some of those I'd like to see included will probably make the cut later after their market cap (and price) have already increased many-fold thereby systematically (and intentionally) leaving too much potential profit on the table. They'll likely look better to me once the picture is already more broadly understood by the rest of the investing community. Hopefully we'll have outperformed the ETF considerably by that time.
    29 Oct 2010, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct, I agree.

     

    Frankly, this effort reminds me strongly of some of the "gold" miners that get 10% of their income from gold which is a byproduct of the 90% of their income which is in base metals. Its a form of false advertising at worst - and predatory marketing at best.

     

    Its of course possible that their investments in metals like titanium and tungsten will yield them good returns, and perhaps even better returns than REEs. LOL, in that case, they could then advertise that their "REE ETF" was outperforming all competing REE investments!

     

    Sigh. Its apparent that I am a crusty old stock picker, and that's all I'll ever be.
    29 Oct 2010, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Kudos, Triple. This is a wonderful resource. This is my first trip to the Ree patch!
    29 Oct 2010, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome aboard, OG!

     

    I just turned up something of interest regarding the new addition to the (GWMGF.PK) board:

     

    clearstation.etrade.co...

     

    Looks like Great Western might have an inside track to selling to the Japanese (or perhaps selling the entire company, which I frankly would expect is a likely occurance).

     

    I would discount the author's exuberance, but the basic concept seems sound.

     

    A purchase price somehwere over $1.50 per share for GWM would be nice, yes, it surely would.
    29 Oct 2010, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    Great heads up! Entered two small positions in (GWMGF).

     

    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2010, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9707) | Send Message
     
    Time to double down. In at .32 average cost right now so some room to gamble.
    29 Oct 2010, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. I have a sizeable hoard of GWM all on house money, but I am thinking to pile it on come Monday.
    29 Oct 2010, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From the beginning, the junior REE miners to watch have been (GWMGF.PK) and (LYSCF.PK). (MCP) was always lurking, with a large following of major corporations and venture capitalists, until their IPO. When (REE) clambered onto the AMEX, that made 4 (although I really don't like the situation with (REE) - it lacks the planning and infrastructure of the other 3).

     

    Then we have a couple dozen little penny stocks, exploration companies, and wildcatters.

     

    Plus the 97% of the market sources which are just about congealed into the shadowy Chinese REE cartel. Of course.

     

    The 3 to study (at first) if interested in investing in REEs is, imo, GWM, Lynas and MolyCorp. I own stock in all 3, and its not a bad alternative vs a new ETF which appears to be about 70% "other" instead of REEs.
    29 Oct 2010, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I am interested in this one too:
    www.arafuraresources.c.../
    29 Oct 2010, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I added (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) to my tracking when you mentioned it recently, and it has done quite well since resuming trading.

     

    I am looking to add one or two more REE pennies, and frankly, I had already decided that Arafura was one of them. I mentioned it prominently upstream in this insta.
    29 Oct 2010, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REE Worst Case Scenario.

     

    There is a strong likelihood that REEs have finally risen in visibility to the point where it will become a topic at the upcoming G20 summit.

     

    Nothing like an embargo to comprise the aforementioned 2x4 upside the mule's noggin.

     

    Anyway, now there is speculation that "the REE thing" was just a bubble, flash in the pan, pump and dump. China announced an end to the embargo - which wasn't an embargo - and is now shipping shipments which were halted, except they claim they were not halted... OK, that's confusing, but the idea is that things are going back to normal, and it was all just a big misunderstanding...

     

    And really THAT would be the worst case scenario for Ree investors - that there IS nothing solid underlying the entire REE narrative.

     

    Lets examine that premise for a moment:

     

    1. China and many independent experts working with China's REE industry all report that their probable reserves have been hollowed out to as little as 15-20 years of supply at current rates of extraction (and at current rates of demand, which we will examine seperately a bit later). Frankly, I distrust estimates of "proven reserves". In the United States, the numbers are crooked as a hound's back leg. We've thrown up gigantic barriers to exploration and research, then back into the numbers - and the groups doing the backing have every reason to discourage the activity, since they have an institutional aversion to it. So maybe the numbers are conservative, or just lies. OK, throw that one out...

     

    2. China's Export Quoatas ARE a big deal. In 2009, those quotas were just BARELY enough to keep the world demand on an even keel. In 2010 China cut them back severely, and only the fact that the primary users outside China (Japan and Korea) had manged to squirrel away stockpiles kept them running. Korea's stockpiles are just about gone, while Japan's are down to about 6 months (or a year if you believe a few of the obviously more prescient Japanese manufacturers). Earlier this year China cut their quotas by 60%, then trimmed the remainder by ANOTHER 30% (this results in 72% reductions, btw). So the world in 2011 will VERY suddenly be making do with 72% less REE product to make things with. THIS is not even under discussion in the lamestream media - they are too busy doing handsprings that, hey, they were right, China is now back like always shipping REEs. No mention that the REEs they are rumored to be shipping (still getting word out of Japan that no REEs are coming in, btw) are just the last dregs of small amounts left from the 2010 quotas. Yes, that's right, the quotas - including the breathtaking reductions - are very much still the law of the land in China.

     

    But this is supposed to be a worst case scenario, so lets imagine for a moment that our sterling national leadership shows up at the next G20 and gets the Chinese leadership to back down and greatly expand their REE quotas. Shhh, I know, how likely is THAT, but remember this is a fictional, worst case scenario we're talking about here.

     

    So in this fantasy world, OUR leaders are the tough guys, and the Chinese are the spineless weaklings who will get pushed around. Keep that in mind, if you can (but don't hold your breath - you'll pass out).

     

    2. Demand for REEs is predicted to skyrocket. This one will be hard to deny. Even if all we do is continue adding to existing technology reliant on REEs like big screen tv's, cell phones, computers, permanent magnets, etc, the projected growth is staggering. Add in the NEW technology coming down the pike in power generation, electric cars, green solutions and black ops, it goes from the alarming to the ridiculous. And just a reminder, if the estimates of Chinese reserves ARE anywhere near accurate, those growth rates for REE demand WILL consume those reserves a lot faster than 15-20 years!

     

    But let's go with the worst case concept. Humanity suddenly decides that fancy cell phones, pda's, ipods, ipads and iwhatevers are BAD things. Nobody wants a new computer or tv anymore. Peace breaks out, and the military cancels all their new toys reliant on copious amounts of exotic REE metals. The planet starts to resemble a very low rent Renaissance Festival, of course, but it COULD happen, right? So, forget about that source of demand!

     

    3. Demand for REEs used in infrastructure building is going up fast, too. REEs are used as polishing compounds, for additives to refining metals, and in the manufacture of glass. All those common industrial uses are going to become MORE common as the third world continues its surge in infrastructure build-out. Even the "common" Rare Earths have a solid, and growing, demand curve.

     

    This one's actually pretty easy to turn into a Worst Case Scenario. After we turn the planet into a permanent RenFest, who needs infrastructure? Conveniently, the third world countries already HAVE the majority of their population living without running water or electricity (this includes much of China, btw), so in our fantasy scenario, they just leave things as they are and don't build anything.

     

    I could go on and on, but I hope everyone by now gets the point.

     

    It is POSSIBLE to concoct a scenario in which all these situations solve themselves and the world just "gets along". Its just bloody unlikely, and no person educated with the facts will ever believe it.
    29 Oct 2010, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (7518) | Send Message
     
    Ah yes, it always comes down to education, doesn't it? And by education, I assume you mean shortages and higher prices of all things made using REEs? It is the only education that seems to work in our culture. Oil isn't a problem unless the spigots are turned off. Electricity isn't a problem until we have a few black outs. Terrorism isn't a problem until a few thousand people die. And then after short-term solutions are put in place that give us few more worry-free years we tend to forget all that we supposedly learned. Then we have learn all over again. I suspect REEs will be play out in similar fashion. The real move may not come for six more months or until electronics from Japan or Korea are in short supply. Even then, if the Chinese have substitutes most people won't notice it for a while. But then, when the prices of those fewer remaining gadget begin to climb ever faster, the masses will cry out to their government and our leaders will cry foul! And then those savvy investors who saw this all coming (and the Chinese) will rack up some pretty nifty profits.

     

    I really think that this whole things could take several years to play out completely and over that span we could see a lot of very large swings. The MSM is likely to tout each new mine coming on line with fresh new supplies as the answer to global problems even when their output is only a fraction of what is needed. This could be fun!

     

    Oh, BTW, I feel stupid because I didn't put my bid in for MCP first thing this morning. I was outside on a project and let myself get distracted. I need to be more disciplined! I had decided that $32 was actually a good entry point at this stage but not to get greedy so I even went with $33, but missed the early morning drop because I didn't set it up before the market opened. Well, live and learn. I guess I'm no better that the average joe sometimes.
    30 Oct 2010, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack: Great link to the raremetalblog from London, thanks!
    30 Oct 2010, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Reporting earnings 11/15 after the market closes on
    Monday, November 15, followed by an investor conference call at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

     

    Down pre-market -1.41%.

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2010, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on (MLLOF.PK). Now operating on pure house money with solid core position remaining.

     

    Last Friday saw some serious fireworks between Japan, China and the United States over REEs at the Southeast Asian summit. Secretary of State Clinton sided with Japan, plus presented America's concerns, and China exploded.

     

    From the Chinese perspective, they viewed the words from Japan as having "poisoned" any chance of diplomacy. Clinton was viewed with anger, though the Chinese take on her positions was less extreme.

     

    China's public policy, that they intend to be "a reliable source for rare earths" obviously failed to mollify the other attendees.

     

    The muted reporting of these matters in the Western media (what a shock, eh?), who contented themselves with reporting the upbeat (if vague and misleading) Chinese announcment featuring the all-encompassing "reliable" comment, presents an entirely false impression. (I would point the reader back a few months to how a similar announcement regarding the Chinese yuan revaluation featuring an equally misleading term, "flexible", worked out).

     

    Short action on the REE stocks appears to be continuing this morning, though Lynas (LYSCF.PK) appears to be shaking it off.

     

    As the actual (versus shallow and misleading) disturbing news from the summit becomes more widely known among serious investors, expect the trends to reverse later today. I would expect (LYSCF.PK) to turn positive first, with (MCP) following (though they may just plateau near zero gain, given the short action on that stock).
    1 Nov 2010, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20...

     

    Article about the Asian Summit.
    1 Nov 2010, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More REE stocks are now inside my Buy@ targets:

     

    (ARAFF.PK) $1.36 Buy@ $1.20 Hold
    (GDLNF.PK) $.78 Buy@ $.70 Hold
    (GWMGF.PK) $.40 Buy@ $.40 Buy
    (HUDRF.PK) $1.02 Buy@ $1.04 Buy
    (MLLOF.PK) $.49 Buy@ $.50 Buy
    (LYSCF.PK) $1.41 Buy@ $1.46 Buy
    (MCP) $33.56 Buy@ $32.00 Hold

     

    I am adding (GWMGF.PK) now. Watching (HUDRF.PK) to see if it will drop below $1 per share (it might). Watching (MLLOF.PK) to see if it will go below $.44 (which I consider support for this stock), at which time I will probably add more. Already purchased quite a bit of (LYSCF.PK), otherwise, I consider this one a buy at these levels.

     

    EVERYONE be sure to do lots of research and your own due dilligence before investing in any of these extremely speculative stocks.
    1 Nov 2010, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REE Update:

     

    A lot of uninformed (best possible interpretation) information has been released by the xperts about the REE situation this week, perhaps with some connection to the lamestream media's intense investment in protecting Voldemort and his Death Eaters. Regardless of the source of the agitprop, which is of course based upon the unreal, it HAS had a real effect upon the REE market, which is in a state of flux.

     

    (ARAFF.PK) $1.21 Buy@ $1.20 Hold (Watch)
    (GDLNF.PK) $.81 Buy@ $.70 Hold
    (GWMGF.PK) $.39 Buy@ $.40 Buy
    (HUDRF.PK) $1.07 Buy@ $1.04 Buy
    (MLLOF.PK) $.45 Buy@ $.50 Buy
    (LYSCF.PK) $1.40 Buy@ $1.46 Buy
    (MCP) $32.01 Buy@ $32.00 Buy

     

    Note that (MCP) and (ARAFF.PK) are now just a penny above my targets.

     

    2 Nov 2010, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1749) | Send Message
     
    Superb Insta, TB. Well-researched, coherent and logical -- as I have come to expect and appreciate from you!

     

    Speaking of making the negative case, as you discussed on Oct 29, I didn't see any reference yet to an article I stumbled across on SA, now about 10 days old. Here it is in case you missed it -- the author is no "denier" in that he makes a good case, at least in arguing to avoid REE -- the stock, not the industry.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    2 Nov 2010, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I read it some time ago. It focuses on (REE) vs REE's (a very lamentable point of confusion for all too many). If you read back over my comments above, I tend to agree with him - I am no fan of (REE) either, whereas of course I do see the logic and actionability of REE's.

     

    (REE) is THE short target, followed by (MCP) to a lesser extent.

     

    And this will continue, indefinitely, until the less capitalized companies can grow. Lynas (LYSCF.PK) is large in their home market on ASX, but like all over the counter stocks, difficult to trade futures on here. I have seen signs that Lynas fights their own short sharks back home in Australia, though - which as a $2.5+billion (Australian) company, they would.

     

    Pointing out the "small" size of the world market in REE's based upon 2 year old data is a mistake, particularly when up till about 9 months ago, probably triple that amount was changing hands on the black market (all from "outlaw" miners now subsumed into the new Chinese REE Cartel). Those sales were primarily to Japanese and Korean industrialists, who then stockpiled the metals in anticipation of the very same problems we are seeing today. But let's discard that argument, which is obviously difficult to quantify and impossible to prove...

     

    What is NOT in doubt is that past consumption is, indeed, history. As we move away from incandescent lighting (something which has been mandated by law in the United States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc, etc), which used no REEs, to the green alternatives, demand is already showing a steep upward curve.

     

    Every hybrid or electric vehicle uses a large amount of REEs, in things like magnets and batteries. It is estimated that even China's entire production of REEs will be insufficient to supply their own demand for the production of wind turbines and automobiles, much less ship 97% of the rest of the planet's needs as they did in 2007.

     

    This is not a supply problem with deep, historic roots - it is a forward looking DEMAND problem with a small group of pioneers frantically running around planting seeds.

     

    But lets, for a moment, accept the "...world demand is only 124,000 tonnes per year..." Fine. And China supplied 97% of that when they were shipping all the REEs. Call their contribution 120,000 tonnes. And figure they used half that amount domestically, leaving 60,000 tonnes for the rest of us. Then figure they do precisely what they promise to do, remain a "reliable supplier" for the full amount of their export quota...

     

    Which will be about 16,800 tonnes.

     

    That will leave a hole of about 43,200 tonnes NEXT year, with the bulk of the planet's stockpiles consumed THIS year to compensate for the cuts in shipments which have already been made.

     

    Its a simple equation. China supplies 97% of the planet's REEs. They have cut what they will allow in their Export Quotas by 72%.

     

    There ARE no currently available replacement supplies for those reduced quotas.

     

    ALL these numbers are obsolete, they assume the markets for REEs (which have been showing actual explosive growth) will be static.

     

    As for "rare earths aren't really rare"...

     

    I recall having a surreal conversation with an otherwise quite well-educated man who was convinced that hydrogen was the obvious choice for a fuel to burn in his car, and equally convinced that some sort of nefarious conspiracy was limiting his access to that wondrous fuel.

     

    "After all," he told me, waving his hands wide, "Hydrogen is the most common element in the UNIVERSE!"

     

    And, of course, he is absolutely correct. Hydrogen IS common, almost literally everywhere...

     

    But finding it accumulated in a pure form is NOT common. And getting it TO that point takes a source (right now we, laughingly enough, normally use a fossil fuel, natural gas, as a feed stock to create hydrogen) PLUS lots of electric energy and technology to make pure, clean burning, hydrogen.

     

    Same thing with the rare earth elements. Commercially exploitable deposits ARE rare, and often located in hard to access locations. The frequently used analogy that one of the key REEs (cerium) is as common in the Earth's crust as, say, copper, fails to reveal the punch line, however: That the Rees are not concentrated by natural processes - that their geochemical behavior means there are few large deposits - and that they require extensive (and expensive) concentrating and refining to achieve the purity needs to use them.

     

    Even IF we never get to the point where we need REEs for superconductors, the demand for samarium-cobalt magnets, and neodymium magnets - for electronic polishes, refining catalysts and hybrid car components, lighting components, LED lights, monitors and tvs, and on and on ad nauseum, WILL be in demand.

     

    One of the things I did when researching this topic was to look for options for the dominant uses for REEs. There are darn few, and every year MORE uses are discovered, making the curve more lopsided still.

     

    Even IF the entire planet's legions of REE industries (from refineries, steel mills, electronics manufacturers to auto manufacturers) close down their home factories and move en mass to China, the world faces a looming REE supply problem.

     

    Its notable that even removing all trace of the considerable geopolitical elements in the equation, you still run smack into the same conclusion.
    2 Nov 2010, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19540) | Send Message
     
    And don't forget that certain low-grade "mixes" are needed to make the polishing compounds for high-precision lens, telescopic dishes, ...

     

    That's a pretty decent sized demand off and on too.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2010, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    superb points Tripleback! don't get why something this logical and rather simple is difficult for some to accept.
    3 Nov 2010, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention storage vessels for hydrogen which also require REEs.
    2 Nov 2010, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    From Lynas Corp (Bloomberg)...about REEs, estimated supplies and demand; predictions of shortfalls...

     

    The price of lanthanum, used in hybrid car batteries, has risen seven fold! To $50.00/kilogram.

     

    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    2 Nov 2010, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. And every Prius (for example) uses about 20 pounds of REEs. 10 pounds lanthanum. Full EV's (electric vechicles) will presumably use a lot more.

     

    www.popularmechanics.c...
    2 Nov 2010, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    let's also look at Mr. Warren Buffet himself: He not only invested 10% in BYD, a Chinese electric car maker, but... he also tried to buy a larger stake last month. And why?...... he knows exactly what's happening with this Ree situation!
    3 Nov 2010, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Anybody heard of Alkane Resources (AU:ALK)? This is an Aussie gold, diamond and REE exploration company that rocketed and now has pulled back significantly.

     

    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    2 Nov 2010, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Scanned the Pop Mech's article. Great one!

     

    Trip: Suggestion. I believe this thread is going to continue for some time. Maybe you could date each thread like User did with his Swine Flu Concentrator?
    2 Nov 2010, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, you are right. Will do.
    2 Nov 2010, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1749) | Send Message
     
    TB and all who commented after,

     

    To your points about electric and/or hybrid autos, here's a great article that points out the hypocrisy of our administration wanting to use same to "reduce dependence upon foreign oil" while enslaving us to foreign REEs! Ah, the joys of central planning without that messy old invisible hand interfering, eh, comrades?

     

    www.realclearscience.c...
    2 Nov 2010, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to the latest REE Concentrator at: seekingalpha.com/insta...
    2 Nov 2010, 04:57 PM Reply Like
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