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  • REE/Strategic Metals Concentrator Dec 1, 2010 121 comments
    Dec 1, 2010 11:13 AM | about stocks: GMO, RBYIQ, REMX, PCP

    Commencing with this instablog, more attention is being focused on the role of strategic minerals/metals, which of course includes the REE family, but also titanium, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, etc.

    The first chart is focused primarily upon strategic/uranium, including DNN, UCORE and GDLNF.  The second chart looks at REE stocks, while the third contains a few REE stocks, plus the strategic group.  Note that the light blue line is (OTC:MTCEF), even though it is not listed in the key menu (Yahoo's new charting regimen has some bugs).


    This morning's market snapshot is almost uniformly green, with Lynas leading the way thus far:

    (OTCPK:LYSCF) up 6.49%
    (OTC:PMNHF) up 5.52%
    (MCP) up 5.41%
    (OTCQX:HUDRF) up 5.26%
    (OTC:MTCEF) up 5.01%
    (EMMCF.PK) up 4.60%
    (AVARF.PK) up 4.52%
    (OTC:TASXF) up 3.52%
    (OTCPK:DCHAF) up 3.26%
    (OTCQX:GWMGF) up 2.64%
    (OTCPK:ALKEF) up 2.47%
    (NYSEARCA:REMX) up 2.26%
    (TIE) up 2.61%
    (NYSEMKT:GMO) up 1.45%
    (OTC:QSURD) up 1.03%
    (OTCPK:GDLNF) up .56%
    (OTCPK:NATUF) up .56%
    (OTCPK:MLLOF) down .45%
    (NYSEMKT:RBY) down 1.02%

    The recent trend for hot money to flow throughout the day out of the lesser performers into the leaders appears to be fading - a sign that the sector is no longer the major focus of the fad/hot money folks.  This group is led around by the MSM, and can be expected to land back on our turf as the newsies corrupt any news, but for now it has settled back into something approaching "normalcy".





    Disclosure: Author is long DCHAF, EMMCF, GMO, HUDRF, MTCEF, MLLOF, NATUF, PMNHF, QSURD, RBY, TASXF, LYSCF, MCP, GWMGF, GDLNF
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (121)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment from OG on prior insta:

     

    Avalon Rare Metals is going on AMEX!

     

    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    1 Dec 2010, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Great news, OG!

     

    Particularly since I actually own some already!

     

    As of today, Lynas (LYSCF.PK) is joining the ASX 100, too.

     

    This sector is starting to get a little more respect...
    1 Dec 2010, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tracking update...

     

    (DCHAF.PK) has taken the lead, up 7.86%
    (MCP) is now up 6.51%, edging past Lynas, and catching a little residual hot money unless I miss my guess
    (LYSCF.PF) is still up 6.49%
    (EMMCF.PK) has improved, up 5.18%
    (AVARF.PK) is picking up some speed, now up 5.07%
    (MTCEF.PK) has eased slightly, still up 4.45%
    (PMNHF.PK) is emulating MTCEF, also still up 4.41% on the day
    (TIE) is up 3.65%
    (GWMGF.PK) is up 3.40%
    (REMX) is up 3.29%
    (ALKEF) has improved, up 3.09%

     

    The rest of the pack is lagging the field.
    1 Dec 2010, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Heavy REE news day:

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...
    1 Dec 2010, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding (DNN) to the mix. Up 7.42% today.
    1 Dec 2010, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    I posted this on the old concentrator, so am reposting here:
    PNPFF.PK is up over 9% today alone. Iwentash (the CEO) has purchased over a mil shares himself in immediate past. If you are in this stock and haven't taken any profits yet, consider that.
    1 Dec 2010, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » JPM has reversed course, upgrades (LYSCF.PK) to "overweight", increases short term target to $2.17.

     

    www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    Presumably this means they have been able to scarf up enough of the stock cheap after downgrading it last month, and are now prepared to ride it as it brings Mt. Weld and Malaysia on line and keeps signing major supply agreements.
    1 Dec 2010, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Float 31.91MM, last report short 13.36MM, DTC 9.6 days. If I got them all (not sure yet - this is still too new) add the 2.7MM from the last two weeks = 34.61MM short.

     

    I wonder how many of these shorts were added by JPM. They play both sides, right? Buy low, as it rises short, issue "overweight", dump there shares on the way down at a profit, cover at the bottom. Alternately, after they've bought at market lows, issue "overweight", short on the way up and cover with pre-purchased shares bought at the low end.

     

    Date| Shrt Vol| Total Vol
    1116| 262634| 1017053
    1117| 177538| 0558092
    1118| 110324| 0597519
    1119| 056098| 0284631
    1122| 318163| 0551699
    1123| 177311| 0738708
    1124| 470424| 1365980
    1126| 581554| 1043036
    1129| 341765| 0736165
    1130| 204022| 0454479
    ===================
    Total added short 2,699,833

     

    HardToLove
    1 Dec 2010, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    That's how it works, TB. Seen this happen lots of times. Almost a sound investing (gambling) theory as any is when JMP downgrades any stock with a terrific investment thesis, you wait a couple of days and then start buying that stock.
    1 Dec 2010, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    According to John Kaiser of Bottom Fish, Soros and his hedge fund has Tasman (TASXF) under the microscope. I believe they are considering investing,etc.

     

    He considers Tasman a "world class rare earth resource," with the latest metallurgic analysis out.
    1 Dec 2010, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    One Eye brought up (TASXF) Tasman in September.
    Here's some info on it:
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    (One day I hope SA will have better pink sheets coverage.)
    1 Dec 2010, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    How about a pink sheets news concentrator?
    1 Dec 2010, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    User: Greetings. That would be a ton of work with all the Nano and Micro caps floating around the Pinks.
    1 Dec 2010, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Yes, no way coverage could be provided for all pinks... I was thinking it might be possible to provide coverage in limited investment areas...

     

    For example, Triple has a good start on Rare Earth pink coverage.
    1 Dec 2010, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, the REE space IS almost exclusively pk.

     

    MolyCorp is the exception, and so is Rare Earths, (REE) on the AMEX, but I try to ignore them).

     

    But pk's get no respect, in general.
    2 Dec 2010, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PS: Also need to remember that Avalon is soon to appear on AMEX.
    2 Dec 2010, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5395) | Send Message
     
    TB - I was unable to open the second chart at the top of the Insta. Every time I clicked on it I just got the top chart again. Anyone else having this problem?
    1 Dec 2010, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Hi Mark
    I can click and get the expanded versions on all of them.
    1 Dec 2010, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Mark: Me, too. Can see them.
    1 Dec 2010, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    WFM ok.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Dec 2010, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5395) | Send Message
     
    It must be my computer. I still can't open the middle chart. All I get is the first one labeled "Greenland..." when I click on either of the top two charts and the one labeled "Titanium..." when I click on the bottom one. I even tried clicking in between. I guess I'll have to try moving over to one of the other computers. Thanks for the responses.
    1 Dec 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    TB, should this block be dated Dec 1, 2010 instead ?
    Just curious !
    1 Dec 2010, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, changed it.

     

    Hey, it WOULD have been accurate in another 12 months.
    2 Dec 2010, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    TB, absolutely and we will also be $$$$ wealthier than now !!
    2 Dec 2010, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 10:4. Especially if we keep working this sector as hard as we have been.

     

    Morning tracking:

     

    (AVARF) up 9.03%, leading the way (new listing on AMEX must agree with them!)

     

    (EMMCF) up 3.48%, this microcap has been showing surprising staying power

     

    (GWMGF.PK) up 3.37%, odd, now Great Western is swinging counter to the pull of Lynas and MolyCorp...

     

    (PMNHF) up 3.09%

     

    (HUDRF) up 3.07%

     

    (TASXF) up 2.80%, still showing strength, after recent run-up

     

    (MLLOF) up 2.56%

     

    (MTCEF) up 2.55%

     

    (RBY) up .69%

     

    (GMO) up .37%

     

    (GDLNF) flat

     

    (ARAFF) flat

     

    (QSURD) flat

     

    (DCHAF) down 1.08%

     

    (NATUF) down 1.22%

     

    (ALKEF) down 1.80%

     

    (LYSCF) down 1.82%

     

    (MCP) down 2.40%

     

    Mixed results thus far.
    2 Dec 2010, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Keeping an eye on it. Two days ago, Tue. 11/29, the high & close $1.54. Next day gap open $0.05. Gap still unfilled. Unless it drops precipitously today, the gap will still be unfilled.

     

    As you know, gaps like to get filled. But, I'm concerned that we may end with an island gap. Today's volume and pps range are very small, $0.03 and 284.4K as of 12:11 EDT. Today's high -$0.02 off yesterday's. PPS is in the range of a gap from Oct. 25 that started a down trend.

     

    RSI MFI momentum, OBV, DI+, DI-, ADX all showing sings of weakening. PPS much closer to upper than lower Bollinger bands right now. Above *all* SMA, 20, 50, 100, 200. Stochastic been in overbought since 11/23. Volume has been weakening. ASX price finished low today as well.

     

    OK. Here's my concern. I'm concerned that we may have a gap open down tomorrow. This would leave us with an island reversal, quite bearish.

     

    Might want to check ASX tomorrow as we seem to have similar behavior overall.

     

    I'm OK since I got out about $0.16 too early, but I don't want to see any of us get surprised. I still see an entry point for me, right now, hopefully around the $1.46 - $1.3x, IIRC.

     

    Check your charts, tighten up and GL!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Dec 2010, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    Are any of you aware of any publicly traded REE recyclers? I've been noodling around the intertubez and haven't seen any obvious ones.
    2 Dec 2010, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Japan has some. I will try to find out more on that but I am taking the wife to the airport tomorrow O-Dark thirty so doubt if the Japanese news will be of much use to me now. I have lost my translator for the big words ( more than 2 syllables ) till she gets back in one month.
    2 Dec 2010, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (REMX) lists one Japanese company which also recycles, as I recall.
    2 Dec 2010, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    As I recall Toshiba Japan (TOSBF) does that but it's not their core business.
    2 Dec 2010, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Oops. They have not gone opperational yet in Japan. It has been in the news and talked about so I thought it had started. Just checked with the boss and was told it will start "soon" but no specific date. In Japanese "soon" is a relative word and can not be taken literally. It is not the same as "soon" in english but they translate it that way. It should probably translate to "some day" or "sooner than later" or even "sooner than never" maybe even "its going to happen we just dont know when". Point is "soon" could still be a few years out.

     

    They had warehouses full of batteries over there (80's-90's) waiting to figure out how to recycle them and I do not know if they ever did start that recycling. REE's could go the same route. Collect and store for a long time waiting for the technology to catch up.

     

    Could not find anything on the web for Japan on those companies.
    2 Dec 2010, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    HTL what charting books are you reading? You're using a whole new charting vocabulary.
    2 Dec 2010, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Vocabulary? Books? Watzat?

     

    www.investopedia.com/t...

     

    They have lots of stuff. I'm finally to the point though of buying all Bulkowski's books. They have'em on Amazon and used too (I'm really, really cheap about "unnecessary" expenditures).

     

    HardToLove
    2 Dec 2010, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    Do you use Bulkowski's website?
    It makes my eyes cross. ( I think that's a chart pattern, crossing eyes).
    I never heard of a hang man in that context until you mentioned it.
    2 Dec 2010, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Yes. In fact I've decided to buy some of his books. I don't always agree with what he shows, but 99% is better than what I know now.

     

    I guess my eyes don't cross because I spent my career inside technical manuals. My brain is now "hard wired" for the stuff.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Dec 2010, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): On ASX,
    Last 1.580
    Open 1.670
    High 1.675
    Low 1.575
    Vol 35,016,599

     

    Current pre-market bid/ask $1.53/$1.60.

     

    Looks like a downer today.

     

    If it opens gap down (below $1.59) and doesn't fill, look out below!

     

    HardToLove
    3 Dec 2010, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): open +5.36%, but it's one buy ~!0K shares.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Dec 2010, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): might have well been a gap down. Open with a few shares @ $1.60 and dropped right to $1.58

     

    Last trade now $1.56

     

    HardToLove
    3 Dec 2010, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (GPRLF): +12.59% $2.49 09:45.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Dec 2010, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Today there is a clear division between the Haves:

     

    (emmcf) has caught fire, up 23.91% and accelerating
    (mtcef) is extremely strong, up 11.48%
    (natuf) is coming back, up 5.55%
    (araff) is up 4.88%
    (dchaf) is up 3.81%
    (mllof) is up 2.01%
    (gmo) is up 1.83%
    (rby) is up 1.40%
    (pal) is up 1.29%

     

    And the Have Nots:

     

    (hudrf) is down .85%
    (lyscf) is down .62%
    (gdlnf) is down 1.14%
    (dnn) is down 2.02%
    (qsurd) is down 2.68%
    (mcp) is down 2.70%
    (tasxf) is down 3.54%
    (avarf) is down 3.89%
    (pmnhf) is down 6.31%
    3 Dec 2010, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    An informative article

     

    www.cnbc.com/id/40027130
    4 Dec 2010, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Great post! Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Dec 2010, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): On the ASX, 5:09 EDT
    Last 1.510
    $+/- -0.070
    Bid 1.510
    Offer 1.520
    Open 1.600
    High 1.605
    Low 1.510
    Volume 4,757,919

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2010, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): +4.75%, good bid/offer balance, been inching up all day.

     

    Daily has a stochastic cross up, RSI strengthening, volume up today, momentum, OBV positive and rising. Already hit $0.41 today.

     

    Migjt be trying to break above recent sideways trading range. Most recent resistance, 11/5/10, will be at $0.44.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Dec 2010, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5395) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if the rumor of MCP getting an investment from a Japanese firm will come true. I also wonder if management will put the proceeds to good use, like buying GWM or another of our favorites, LYSCF. If they don't act pretty quickly after the investment, investors will realize that they've been diluted.
    6 Dec 2010, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, Mark. Great Western's up over 8% today on pretty high volume. I'm thinking of dumping my final few shares of Molycorp.
    6 Dec 2010, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5395) | Send Message
     
    Maya - I just hit abuse on your comment in error! I'm so sorry. I guess I was just a little shaken by the idea that you seemed to agree with me! :) LOL!
    6 Dec 2010, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Hey buddy, infinitesimal infraction. Abuse is when a six foot tall, gorgeous step on your tongue statuesque blonde from Santa Rosa, CA, says to you that she wants to fly across the country to join up and go on a trip to Cancun. Then shows up, and after a couple of weird off-putting days in paradise, reveals that the day before she left, some Ferari owning idiot sent his two children, each carrying a dozen roses, one with a sealed envelope, containing the message, "I'll commit suicide if you go away with him."

     

    That's abuse!
    6 Dec 2010, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5395) | Send Message
     
    You know, I've never had that experience, thankfully. So, does the idiot die?
    6 Dec 2010, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I wrote too much because we're all pals here. But, do you really think I stayed around to find out this story's end?

     

    You know better...

     

    Arrgh!

     

    (Now I'm old enough to be curious of what her daughters are doing!!!!!)
    7 Dec 2010, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am keeping tight stops on (GMO), (RBY) and (MCP), but letting the profits ride for now.

     

    Some of the REE/STRAT pennies are getting elevated, too.

     

    (EMMCF.PK) was up 20.06% today, even more than (MCP) at 17.99%.
    6 Dec 2010, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if there was anything specific that fueled this rare earth rally?

     

    REE up 14.05%
    6 Dec 2010, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Rumor of MCP getting an investment from a Japanese firm.... ah got it.
    6 Dec 2010, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. I'm not sure if its good or bad news, but I am keeping tight trailing stops either way.
    6 Dec 2010, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I had my broker buy GDLNF for my 401k and 3 days later it was taken back from my account because if does not qualify for "blue sky" laws in Ohio. Anyone know what that means. They made him pay for the fees and costs associated with that. He would not let me reimburse him. I am not sure what that is all about. I guess I owe him a bottle of liquor later.

     

    So I guess I do not own GDLNF as I thought. I just found out today when we were reviewing strategy. Planning to move more money into energy, coal, pipelines, oil services and load up more silver miners, SIL and AGQ now that I am above water on my last AGQ purchases from 8 Nov. All are back above water since the CME margin fiasco. Pucker factor was high for a while there.

     

    AGQ is a double and I got on the wrong side of that equation really fast with that margin fiasco. Nice to have all the blocks in the green now...err for now. Never know what the CME might be up to.

     

    He has begun to question me about the REEs since they are up so good right now (peaked his interest) I told him to stop by here and get an education.
    7 Dec 2010, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    Blue Sky laws have to do with a security and how it is registered. Each state has it's own laws on how securities must be handled. There's actually a whole license dedicated to it. In order to sell securities in states other than the one in which you reside, you have to get a Series 63.
    7 Dec 2010, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I can only assume that stock has limitations in other states too then! Might be a limit to its ability to rise or it could have unfilled demand that will cause it to rise later.

     

    Any opinions or past experience on that anyone?
    7 Dec 2010, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Australia has unique (ie, very expensive) federally imposed fees for trading on their exchanges. These set them apart, and make it expensive to trade in and out of their companies. I expect this has something to do with the problem. The broker who handles the account where I keep Aussie stocks groans loudly when I buy and sell Aussie companies, because their deal with me is based upon overall volume, NOT specific stock trades. I expect them to bring this up when our contract expires at the end of the month, LOL, but they make plenty from my frequent trades as it is, and I will just jump ship if they get too pouty.
    7 Dec 2010, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (PLG): Raymond James raises target to C$3.20.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Dec 2010, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    I was just looking at AGPPY.PK this morning. Any opinions?
    7 Dec 2010, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I looked them over last year when I was searching for a Platinum play to add to all the silver and gold I was holding back then...

     

    I was put off by the overall problems in the SA mining patch - which included union strife, increasing government regulation and intervention, and the overall "end of mine" alarms ringing everywhere. Anglo is one of the oldest such miners in SA, and several of their mines are pretty long in the tooth...

     

    Still, I like the play AT THIS TIME, though the window might be relatively narrow. I would expect platinum to begin its breakout in about 2-3 months, after the effects of current events in Russia regarding sales from the legendary (and, imo, largely ficticious) Russian government "stockpiles" will be underwhleming.

     

    For the time being, we are looking at a lull (though to be honest, it could well be the START of the dip, not the bottom) in platinum group metal prices.

     

    Averaging some shares into your portfolio over the next 6 weeks SHOULD put at least some of them near the bottom, though.
    7 Dec 2010, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (AGPPY): For me, I'm leery, without findamental analysis, but just looking at a couple things. Market cap $13.72B but 10 day average trades is only 16.6K/day. That market cap is larger than (AEM), which has a much larger daily volume. So I'm concerned that it may be difficult to exit at a price and when you want to.

     

    With 797MM shares out (AEM has only 156MM) I presume that "shelf issuance) resulting in dilution must have been pretty common in the past.

     

    Yearly high/low range is only ~$5.20 ($13.63 - $18.83) and last was $17.20 (4 shares too! - after hours?).

     

    12 month performance 0%. 3 year weekly chart: near potential resistance $17.69 (then $18, ~$18.25, ~$18.80), trading above all SMA except 200, which is $18.39. Had a recent spike on the quarterly report, so lots of positive technical indicators and some turning that way.

     

    On the daily, seems that it might have finished the spike off the quarterly report and is sitting there with a "hanging man" - a *potentially* bearish indicator that needs confirmation. A reversion to the mean would be normal here (ignoring QE2 effects) to ~$16.30. Above all daily SMAs but we have a golden cross occurring on 10/18, a bullish indicator. And the 50 is at the 20 with 50 on the way up and 20 just turning that way. Stochastic just entered overbought, other technicals are so-so.

     

    *If* you can stand the risk of the low trading volume, I'd wait to see if a reversion to ~$16.30 happens and look at the charts then, unless your DD has resulted in some *strongly* bullish indicators.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Dec 2010, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Wall street breakfast said it was sumitomo looking to buy a stake in Moly corp that sent the stock soaring yesterday and also pushed up REE. I don't know if that got mentioned.
    7 Dec 2010, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (LYSCF.PK) and (GWMGF.PK) got strong gains in AH trading last night. I am still reviewing the sector, but initially I am seeing strength overall, including amond the penny stocks.

     

    In the past, strength from the market leaders like (MCP), Lynas and Great Western has often pulled along the lesser companies in their wake.

     

    Today could be interesting.
    7 Dec 2010, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Sold off the few remaining shares of (MCP) this morning gain. Maintaining (GWMGF) and (LYSCF) for the long haul.
    7 Dec 2010, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Would be nice of Sumitomo to buy great western for a huge premium.

     

    Mushi, mushi Sumitomosan. Great Western ga mite kudasai!
    7 Dec 2010, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MCP) is back in its $32-34 channel, and I expect it might stay there until they pull the trigger, though I still think their management (like a lot of American corporate management) is hypnotized by the prospect of government subsidies, and is now waiting for same.

     

    Japan is truly desperate when it comes to their dependence upon China for raw materials, and is belatedly trying to address their earlier myopia... Unlike the United States, which is about a year behind that particular curve.

     

    Sumitomo may push, but they have hold of a very limp string. Until the American government decides to help PULL, the relentless vacilation will continue.
    7 Dec 2010, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    It appears that Somitomo (SMMLY.PK) and Mitsubishi ((MSBHY) have made a contract for 4000 tonnes of REEs from some Californian outfit; obviously Molycorp:

     

    seekingalpha.com/curre...
    7 Dec 2010, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Aussies not high right now on Lynas - AUD$1.48-AUD$1.52 on 3.72MM shares so far. But it's 18:45 EST, so it's early yet.

     

    I'll check later and/or in the A.M. again.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Dec 2010, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looking at Lynas' 6mo ASX chart, Lynas has an amazing habit of bouncing off their 20 DMA. They are currently sitting at the 20 DMA.

     

    Of course, they also crashed through the 20 DMA in no uncertain terms recently, so this is not always a winning track record.
    7 Dec 2010, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF) I've put up a chart and put a bunch of thoughts in there. It's not intended to replace your insta. If you think it's better, I can pull the comments in here and link to the chart, or you can add the chart to yours, ...

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Anyway, summary is that the 20 day looks like it got broke today, we're in 2 rising wedge patterns - bearish - and I *think* the newer wedge is in control now, but unsure.

     

    A break down is expected either soon (older wedge in control) or later (newer in control).

     

    If the newer is in control, we should continue to see an up-trend.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2010, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is fine, HTL, thanks. I was looking at a chart on the ASX site for LYC. Indeed, yesterday's action bottomed just below the 20 DMA. It looks like AH trading for (LYSCF.PK) was quite positive, but we'll see in a few minutes what transpires today. This stock really does have a strong relationship with the 20 DMA.
    8 Dec 2010, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): It's early yet, but it appears that $1.48 is going to hold. bid/ask (for the portions presented - I know they have reserve on the orders to show only 500 at a time) appears to favor strong bids volume @ $1.48 over offers @$1.50 (bids volume would *seem* to be ~20% over offers). OOPS! Just got into balance.

     

    So, if we hold today get confirmation tomorrow, the "wedge" slope says we should be able to hit >= ~$1.61 before encountering the older resistance began 10/20 and which is almost exhausted now. This should occur within ~ 5 trading days, ~11/14. If it breaks above that line, indicating the newer trend is in control, ~$1.80 before hitting any resistance may be possible. Volume over the next few days will tell the story I think. As we near or encounter a support line, we want to see reducing volume.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Dec 2010, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. I have taken some profits on Lynas, but I plan to buy back heavy once it peeks its head above the SMA, perhaps tomorrow or the next day. My cost per share now is about $1.20, so I have leeway.

     

    Took profits on (EMMCF.PK), (EDVMF.PK), (HUDRF.PK), (MTCEF.PK), (MLLOF.PK), (GWMGF.PK) and (LYSCF.PK).

     

    Sold out of (DCHAF.PK). I think their business plan is going to take quite a while to gell.

     

    Stopped out of (PAL) and (SLW). Plan to re-enter both.

     

    Adding more (RBY), (SNDXF.PK), (AVARF.PK), and (TASXF.PK).
    8 Dec 2010, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Trip: (RBY)'s chart is off the charts! I'd like to get (back) in this one, but I can not discern a technical entry point.
    8 Dec 2010, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    On (RBY) the short position decreased by 30%. So part of the pop was a short squeeze. Management might consider this as a good time for a stock offering…
    8 Dec 2010, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I made big profits on (RBY), then waited to see if it stabilized after it fell slightly afterward (but I pulled money out at the peak, something I rarely manage). I've been watching it for a few weeks, and now I'm slowly averaging a little more money back in, 100 or 200 shares at a time.

     

    I would believe User's scenario, frankly (like him, I know we have all been burned by dilution at times like this). Sounds possible.

     

    Joseph Shaeffer told me that he expects (RBY) to "do its own thing" from here out, and I think he's probably right. I take this to imply we will be seeing further volatility, and perhaps some equity capitalization such as User mentions.

     

    This is the usual problem I have with these stocks. Having caught a high flyer, what do I do with it, LOL? Right now I am way ahead so I'm not too concerned about adding slowly some small bits, while I watch to see what happens next. My plan is to accelerate the accumulation if I like what comes next - or scale back if something nasty happens. I am keeping a "normal" tight stop (for me, that's 10% off the average purchase price), though.
    8 Dec 2010, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): ASX results do indicate a turn in the offing and support @ 20 day SMA as you mentioned TB. And we see the desired reducing volume over the last three days with a small price spread and small price recovery yesterday. Overall, this is looking like a good entry point might be here in the U.S. market, as there is a relatively close directional correlation in the Lynas action on ASX and our market.

     

    Last 1.495 -- up from prior right on the 20 day SMA, +
    $+/- 0.010 -- ditto
    Bid 1.490
    Offer 1.495
    Open 1.480
    High 1.510 -- during a turn, smaller spreads are expected, +
    Low 1.470 -- max below prior close only 1.5 cents & ditto
    Volume 27,101,574 - *substantially* lower volume, +

     

    Well, $1.48 *almost* held yesterday. Until ~13:00 it never dropped below there. Then until 15:44 it spent almost all the time @ $1.47 - $1.48, with one instance of $1.49. In the last 16 minutes of the day some sellers chickened out and we finished the day vacillating between $1.46 and $1.47, closing at $1.46.

     

    I know Robert and I had mentioned $1.46, which LYSCF hit yesterday, as a good entry point. I don't recall if TB had mentioned that or not. If we do mimic ASX we should see $1.45 today and *maybe* $1.44 with a small spread and volume today. If we *do* mimic ASX, we should then close @ $1.47 or $1.48 or better. Volume should be very low *unless* our market decides this is indeed a great entry point and folks start piling in. Then we could see both higher volume and intra-day price and close.

     

    If we see either of the behaviors I describe above, I *believe* we have an inflection point that will start bringing us back into the rising wedge. Even though our 20 day SMA doesn't seem as strong a support point as at the ASX, I do note that it was $1.4675 at yesterday's close. The lower Bollinger was ~$1.44 and also indicates possible support level has been reached. Stochastic just entered oversold. As we might expect this early in a turn, the other technical indicators are mostly neutral, IMO.

     

    I'm planning on entry today, if things look good early, with some tight stops @ $1.43, figuring I'll probably get in @ $1.46 - $1.48. Normally I might try for the lower entry @ $1.44 - $1.46, but this close to a possible break in either direction I'd rather see some positive movement before entry. Could wait until tomorrow if things seem "undecided".

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 06:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last time I published a discrete buy@ target for Lynas, it was $1.40. But that target was more of a general operating number rather than one working more short range. I have been watching for a slightly higher price, something in the range of $1.50-.1.51, and not just a peak sale but a period of time trading in that range, before I buy more (of course, I already have considerable). I have been trading in and out of about 20% of my total.

     

    I like your plan HTL, its extremely close to what I have been working with lately. I believe we are in a accord in this matter!
    9 Dec 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Well, that's not very interesting! Where's the heated back-and-forth as we hammer out a plan? ;-))

     

    But, both of bring differnt skill sets to the table: your s mature and well-honed, mine in the infancy stage. Over time, a winning combination.

     

    Plus what the other folks bring, ...

     

    Great wealth and happiness to us all!

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, my heart's just not in it today, I guess.

     

    I'm busy with my daughter (just had oral surgery, wisdom teeth) this morning... Might find some time to poke around the political sites down under, though. I need to get a gauge for what they plan to do with commodity taxes and kneecap-trade.

     

    Short term, though, its hard-wired, imo.
    9 Dec 2010, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    QSURD issued what seems to be very good drilling news this morning, but stock has barely budged (with total volume of 16,000). Any thoughts?
    9 Dec 2010, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I see this sort of delay a lot with these low volume situations. I would not be surprised to check their home exchange and see a much more logical and stronger reaction.

     

    The reaction may never occur here, or spread out over several days...

     

    But my screen (schwab) shows it up over 9% right now.

     

    Maybe you just need to refresh your screen.
    9 Dec 2010, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Looking good to me: low so far $1.46, high $1.50 volume anemic. Entered at $1.48 although I think a mid-afternoon pullback may occur and even a late day sag to $1.45 is possible.

     

    Volume absolutely anemic - just what I wanted to see.

     

    @ $1.49 right now.

     

    Let's see if I've learned anything (other than patience - still working that one).

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    I'm Thinking Lynas (LYSCF) my break below $1.45 tomorrow and will add if it does.
    9 Dec 2010, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    North American Palladium (PAL) is exercising their option on class A warrants. I wonder if we will get a small dip out of this?
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    9 Dec 2010, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Robert: Seems quite possible that a dip is in the cards. Wondering how many of these warrants are out there waiting to be exercised?
    9 Dec 2010, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Any thoughts on where the rare earths sector is going? Seems to be
    in a lull lately. Very little on the news lately. Wonder if we are in a transitional period before we either break lower overall or break higher.

     

    As usual, I appreciate this blog.
    9 Dec 2010, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Jimp: No doubt in my noggin' REEs will rise again. I believe we're in a "churn" cycle right now, as profits are being gently scraped off and sold to new enterers.

     

    We'll see what China does with it's next export report. It's important to note that Lynas and Molycorp are already booking contracts now for future delivery.
    9 Dec 2010, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The whole "export ban" business accelerated the news cycle immensely, but it was unsustainable for a LOT of reasons:

     

    First, China won the staring contest and slapped Japan around a little (they tried to do the same to the US and Europe, but our leadership is so clueless they didn't even realize it had happened). When China resumed shipping the dregs of the (reduced 72%) 2010 quotas, the mainstream media and any number of self-proclaimed "experts" announced that it was all a tempest and a tea pot - rare earth elements aren't really "rare" - and since all the companies have to do to get supplies is close down their home factories, move to China, and turn over their proprietory technology to the Communist Party, "...what's the problem?"

     

    Second we have several key players who really HAVE been trading REE metals with the (now vanished) Chinese REE outlaw blackmarketers. Mostly Japanese companies (though some Koreans as well), they were smart enough to squirrel away stockpiles to keep them going in case of a worst case scenario like China stopping shipments (and gosh, who would ever believe the kindly, gentle, ChiComs would ever do such a thing?). Korea and various other nations USED to keep large stockpiles of these strategic materials, but many made the mistake of following the example of the Clinton administration, who proudly closed our stockpiles, announced that a new age had dawned in international relations and markets, and sold off the goods for pennies on the dollars to prove their point. Oops. Japan, quixotically, kept a one year supply tucked away.

     

    And since these key companies (plus Japan) have announced that they have a 1 year supply (some major Japanese manufacturers shamefacedly admitted they only had a 6 month supply, ha, they must be Clinton fans), the pundits and xperts have concluded that it was all overblown.

     

    Now we hear confidently (from the pundits and xperts, though strangely NOT from the Chinese government) that they expect the Chinese to rescind their 2011 quotas showing 72% reductions in export quotas - AND the "grade on the curve" with a system of quotas more in line with demand and less just focused on the number of tonnes shipped.

     

    Of course, some of those same pundits and xperts also point out that China has been forced to close virtually ALL of the outlaw mines because of environmental pollution and unsafe conditions, and that their entire REE reserve base now comprises no more than 15 years supply for THEIR internal demand, much less any exports...

     

    Ignorance and stupidity (and particularly the many cases in the media where we experience both simultaneously) is a perfect shield, RIGHT up until the bug hits the windshield.

     

    The Soviet Union's military used to have to cope with problems like this - issues where their political commisars would insist that they do something (like defy gravity) which the military knew full well they simply could not do. This debate came to include a wonderful phrase: "Objective Reality". LOL, just as the colonel looking aghast as his commisar demands they do the impossible. pundits and xperts demanding that the Chinese overlords toe their line will one day experience Objective Reality up close and personal.

     

    IMO there is a wild and crazy ride ahead for REEs and strategic metals in general, and PARTICULARLY in the coming year. As the tiny export quotas fail to feed the rapidly growing demand (and in the end, it really doesn't matter how the pundits do their zero sum redistributing system exercise, or even whether or not the Chinese follow their well-meaning suggestions), Objective Reality will slowly enter the news stream...

     

    And then watch out.

     

    9 Dec 2010, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. We in the U.S. forces referred to those folks as EAR specialists. Because those decisions were being made at Echelons Above Reality. LOL.
    9 Dec 2010, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that today the game may have changed when Chu formed the advisory council (comment w/link posted in the QC). All these folks have needs for REEs for one reason or another beyond batteries: gensets, catalytics for certain manufacturing processes, ...

     

    And if they really want to make us a big exporter of green energy products, someone on that council will surely mention the potential REE bottleneck.

     

    I would expect to see lots of new mining activities down the road as a strategic part of their plan, beyond what may have already inspired by military needs.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. CNBC just gave palladium and platinum a bull call.
    9 Dec 2010, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the feedback guys. I'm hoping for some real long-term gains over the next couple of years. Lynas Corp is my largest holding.

     

    Curious to hear what you think is the best heavy rare earth miner?
    Quest / Avalon / Matamec ? Seems everyone is pounding the table on HREOs.
    9 Dec 2010, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IMO the HREE story has 2 levels, and the first (and to me most obvious) level gets short shrift.

     

    Its become a mantra among some folks to discount the larger (and near term more viable) western REE companies as lacking HREE resources. These people at first deny the fact that the HREEs DO occur at MolyCorp's main mine, then laugh them off because their percentage is low...

     

    But that is an attitude demonstrating ignorance of how these difficult to segregate elements are mined and refined.

     

    Sure, MCP might be looking at only about 2% HREE content, but that is 2% of WHAT? 2% of a small overall number WOULD be immaterial, but 2% of a really BIG number is, itself, a large number, and particularly when it includes a fully built-out infrastructure and a large capital base working frantically to crank it out of mothballs.

     

    One reason HREE prices ARE high is that they are hard to get to, hard to refine, and other, similar factors. Maintaining high environmental and safety standards costs real money, and these things cost a lot to refine, so they have high market prices... But refining them downstream of a primary concentration and refining process which is paid for by the other 98% of REEs IS a very cost-efficient method of addressing the issue, and this applies to most of the near-ready western mining efforts (Lynas and MolyCorp especially).

     

    These companies WILL be first to market, it appears, plus Great Western (which is relatively small potatoes, but a very interesting model overall)... I still believe that one of the larger companies will gobble up GWM soon...

     

    Anyway, the first to market will also be the first to market with their 2% (of a very large overall number) of HREEs. Some of the more esoteric elements (which also boast the headline 4 digit price tags) also have tiny absolute world markets - ie, its quite possible that the first western miners will be able to generate sufficient quantities to fill virtually ALL the ex-China demand for these elements. If these larger companies also buy up one or two HREE deposits and initiate an aggressive plan to exploite them, the picture for their competitors' future prospects could dim considerably.

     

    Now, the LONG term prospects for these rich (but raw, widely scattered, hard to access) deposits might well remain bright, but they would become interesting from a 10, 20 or 30 year perspective, NOT a day trade on a hot penny stock.

     

    In the end its all about supply and demand, AND the timing.

     

    This is why I am firmly invested in both ends of the spectrum. I like the chances for (GWMGF.PK) getting bought out at perhaps twice its market price - I like the prospects for companies like (LYSCF.PK) and (MCP) who are sewing up major customers left and right and who are moving rapidly toward producing finished product - and I like the prospects for some of the more interesting juniors like (ARAFF.PK), (MLLOF.PK), and (MTCEF.PK) who are likely to get snapped up around the same time their purchasers go "live" with their primary mines and processing plants.

     

    Finally, I like some of the more blue sky, future might be bright, explorers who MIGHT get bought up in the initial phase (over the next 2 years), but even if not, will remain a solid value for the more distant future. I see stocks like (HUDRF.PK), (GDLNF.PK), (QSURD.PK), and (TASXF.PK) in this group.

     

    There are a double handful of other likely stocks in the REE space which might be even better prospects than those I personally own (and I am long all the stocks I have mentioned in this comment), I certainly don't claim to have a patent on stockpicking.
    10 Dec 2010, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Great comments! As I get properly positioned, I'll be trying to look at some of those other you mention. Right now I'm constrained by me desire for lots of "dry powder" and limited to focus, in detail as I do, on the chart technical aspects trying to grow more dry powder. If I'm successful, over time, I'll have more to disperse.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    Exactly... the play in this sector is who gets it to market faster.
    10 Dec 2010, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Terrific comment, Trip!
    10 Dec 2010, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Excellent insight. Thank you.
    10 Dec 2010, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Well, looking good so far - just need confirmation tomorrow.

     

    O $1.46 C $1.49 H $1.50 L $1.46

     

    Volume very low @ 186.9K shares traded. Tomorrow's volume may tell us a story.

     

    So we did better than ASX as we didn't touch $1.45, as I thought we might.

     

    As near as I can tell, we are ~$0.01 above the support line of the rising wedge at the close and right *on* the 50 day SMA.

     

    Now, before I get to giddy, tomorrow is Friday, not uncommon for folks to sell off if there's *any* hint of a new risk over the weekend.

     

    So let's hope all the international trouble spots play nice tomorrow and there's no unexpected bad economic news.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    I posted on the QC that Northern Dynasty (NAK) took off today up over 10%. I can't find a catalyst. Any ideas?
    9 Dec 2010, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    "I can't find a catalyst"

     

    Use that word carefully on a rare earth blog! We got lots of 'em here!

     

    ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    Well...aren't you the "converter!"
    9 Dec 2010, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6150) | Send Message
     
    I looked around and found nothing... I did find that the December $10.00 call was purchased ~1,100 times, on the offer, an open interest of 1,258 contracts...
    9 Dec 2010, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    OK since it closed at $11.19 those shares were called away. Now the question is: What does that mean? Taking profit from (NAK) may be in order here. I'm going to keep an eye on this tomorrow.
    9 Dec 2010, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Robert, you may know this, but JIC ...

     

    Options don't expire until next week and it is very unusual for them to be exercised before that, although it *does* happen occasionally.

     

    Just wanted to mention that.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    BTW, the calls with that profile may be a very bullish future owner or may be a short calls position taking profits. If you check the open interest as compared to prior days, you *may* be able to make an educated guess as to which it is.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Dec 2010, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    I bought LYNAS, probably got in at too high a price. $1.52
    9 Dec 2010, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    OG, I don't think it'll hurt to miss a few pennies upside. *If* I'm reading things right, and it does get back in the rising wedge channel again (like it did today) tomorrow and has decent or improving volume, we ought to see in the neighborhood of $1.61 before resistance is met.

     

    FYI: JIC, I've got $0.03 stop losses on mine because I got in "right on the cusp of uncertainty". You might want to use slightly looser ones on yours, and I'll be adjust my to be looser if it works out well tomorrow and Friday.

     

    If it gets through $1.61 *cleanly*, $1.79-$1.80 looks reasonable since there's no resistance between $1.61 and there.

     

    I wish you (and me too, come to think of it) good results with it.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I've stuck a chart up a couple days ago that might calm you if your a bit anxious. My latest blog for 'Gades use only.
    9 Dec 2010, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): On the ASX, stayed below 20 day SMA. The high for the day appears to have touched it and then come back down. Volume improved a bit, appearing to be near Tuesday's. We had higher high and lower low, that volatility indicating indecision as to direction right now. Unfortunately, it closed lower. If it acts like our market, likely a late day sell-off as folks get spooked by the volatility.

     

    Whether or not we will mirror the ASX action today is affected by some things that may be affecting trader sentiment and we we can't quantify, like QE2, Chu's energy advisory panel formation (which one would *expect* to consider REE needs for energy production and efficiency), it's Friday, we have some news, ...

     

    On my charts, yesterday we opened at Wednesday's low spent most of the day around $1.49 and closed there, higher than Wednesday's close. AFAICT, we closed a penny *above* the support line, a good sign. Volume was very low. I would have preferred a higher volume, but low volume is normal *if* an inflection point has been reached and folks haven't decided which way it's going yet.

     

    So regardless of ASX this morning, I remain *cautiously* optimistic.

     

    In summary, our trend appears to still be in play with support of the rising wedge still holding. My only real concern ATM is that two days in a row the lows have violated that support.

     

    But this morning is looking better, albeit it is *very* early still. Initial bid/ask spread was 10 cents, $1.43/$1.53. Assuming it narrows as market open approaches, it should open quite near yesterday's close of $1.49. At the open we often see the low for the day established and then trading range moves up a bit. With a normal range of 5 to 7 cents, I'm hoping to see a low in the $1.47 range at worst. That would push our high to ~$1.52 - $1.54. And we should close near one of those if no late day sell-off occurs. That would be positive, IMO, as our support line would appear to be $1.50.

     

    Would be nice to see stronger volume on that too, but it *is* Friday, we have reporting of consumer sentiment and something else, which I can't remember.

     

    Fingers crossed.

     

    ASX results follow.

     

    HardToLove

     

    Last 1.470
    $+/- -0.025
    Bid 1.465
    Offer 1.470
    Open 1.495
    High 1.515
    Low 1.455
    Volume 31,625,985
    10 Dec 2010, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've been watching (LYSCF.PK) for quite a while, and it has vacillated between periods when the ASX trading "led" our markets here, and when they FOLLOWED. Periods of low volume and narrow trading ranges preceded the transition. I believe we might be looking at a switch from the pattern I have recently mentioned in this blog (the Aussie stocks leading) to a following pattern.

     

    I don't know if this "in between" situation will continue squatting just at the SMA (which in this situation is, I agree HTL, perhaps an inflection point)...

     

    Or not. We'll see soon.

     

    My gut tells me that it is going to bounch up rather than go down, once it breaks loose.
    10 Dec 2010, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2555) | Send Message
     
    no matter what China says about quotas on REEs, no one wants to be dependant on them.

     

    Expect this bull to continue
    10 Dec 2010, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Signed MOU to sell $100MM in stock to Sumitomo which will also provide it with $30MM low-cost financing... In exchange, Molycorp will provide Sumitomo with substantial quantities of several rare earth products over the next seven years.

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...

     

    Pre-market +2.47% to $31.55

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Appx. 4% dilution, on 82MM shares outstanding. Doesn't seem bad considering the low-cost financing provision and the off-take.

     

    Shouldn't affect PPS much I would think.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Set to open either $1.46 or $1.47. If I get stopped out @ $1.45, I'll live with it. Biggest price swings seem to be at the open.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Opened $1.47, many more apparent bids @ $1.46 than offers @ $1,47. Decent size and trade count for the first 15 seconds! LoL!

     

    Looking like a positive move is possible and I may not get stopped out. Wow! $1.47 offers gone - all $1.50 now, but lots of them with only one displayed increased bid of $1.47.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cerium and Lanthanum are both up about 10% today. As usual, this sort of news is hard to derive from the background noise, and is drowned out by all the pundits and xperts who, following China's resumption of the last little bits of exports for 2010 orders, proclaimed "business as usual", and predicted prices would drop like a rock.

     

    Not exactly.

     

    Still, the effect this sort of news (particularly given that Chinese exports are theoretically "On" again) is NOT affecting stock values, or at least, not yet.

     

    Still, we can all hope that reality trumps illusion eventually...
    10 Dec 2010, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): I'd forgotten we have support @ ~$1.47 (from both a recent gap and Oct 6-8 action). Today's *very* low volume, seems to be holding there and has entered a sideways trading range. I've got a feeling that soon it will pop back into the rising wedge and I expect it to close ~$1.49 today, based on what I can see right now.

     

    But it *is* Friday.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Updated the blog to reflect status - really uncertainty - as of 12/10/2010 EOD.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    In summary, we're still sitting right on support from a gap and trading $1.46 - $1.50. Other technical indicators mixed. I expect a break soon, maybe Monday or Tuesday, and it wouldn't surprise me if it gapped.

     

    For now I plan on checking bid/ask just prior to market open and possibly adjusting my stop loss. If trading looks like it will trend down early on, I'll leave it at $1.45. If it looks to trend up, I'll adjust it up, but make it a little looser - I'm currently only $0.03 below my entry price because I entered when it was right on the cusp of a possible change.

     

    I'll post before market open with any additional thoughts.

     

    Have a good weekend!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Dec 2010, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10550) | Send Message
     
    Just looked in Northern Dynasty (NAK) is still running.
    10 Dec 2010, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11918) | Send Message
     
    Wow look at China's raging inflation. The US is spilling out $ and China's absorbing it will cause inflation. The US must stop printing and the new budget is even worse than the last one.
    11 Dec 2010, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to the new Concentrator:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    12 Dec 2010, 01:16 PM Reply Like
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