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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 4, 2011 149 comments
    Jan 4, 2011 5:57 PM | about stocks: MCP, REMX, AVL

    This first chart for 2011 features the old standby as the baseline, Greenland Minerals (OTCPK:GDLNF) compared to some of its leading REE competition.  Avalon (NYSEMKT:AVL) is a standout this week, showing massive improvement as it makes a major move to catch Greenland, though it saw profit taking today.  MolyCorp (NYSE:MCP) is also definitely in the race, with Great Western (OTCQX:GWMGF) showing some verve.  Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF) is still pacing Great Western, though it has shed its earlier performance lead.  Note that all the stocks are quite tightly packed and performing well over the 3 month period.

    Today saw a continuation of the trend we saw earlier, where the REE/Strat. field began to behave more like a normal investment sector.  Stocks have begun to sort out into 3 or 4 basic groups, although each day seems to feature several standouts with phenomenal gains.

    The big winner today was Pele Mountain, up 41.94%.  Far as I have been able to determine, this may be the effect of several positive articles based upon earlier results.  This sector is very prone to these wild spasms, particularly as stock touts seize on the information and blanket the investor-verse with their come-ons.

    Still, we should enjoy the profits as they come - and since I am long (OTC:PMNHF), the up 41.94% is welcome indeed!

    (NYSEMKT:SHZ) is up 18.07%.

    (OTCPK:ALKEF) up 14.02%.  A great day for this stock which I know several of us own.

    (OTCQB:MLLOF) up 9.39%

    (QREDF.PK) up 8.85%

    (MCP) is up 7.48%

    (OTC:NOURF) is up 5.81%

    (XING) is up 5.35%

    (OTCPK:ARAFF) is up 5.06%

    (OTCQX:GWMGF) is up 3.08%

    (OTCPK:GDLNF) is up 3.01%


    Noteworthy on the downside today were:


    (OTCPK:DCHAF) down 1.82%

    (NYSEARCA:REMX) down 2.34%

    (NYSE:TC) down 3.06%

    (OTC:QSURD)  down 3.20%

    (OTCQB:CHGI) down 4.76%

    (OTC:TASXF) down 5.21%

    (NYSEMKT:RBY) down 5.82%

    (NYSEMKT:DNN) down 6.53%

    (OTCPK:NATUF) down 6.88%

    (AVL) down 6.77%

    Everyone else fell somewhere in the middle.

    The marked decline in most of these stocks which coincided with the precious metals action (which saw steep declines in silver, and a steady drop in gold) also had a slightly stronger dollar affecting the results.







    Themes: Rare Earths Stocks: MCP, REMX, AVL
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Comments (149)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last post by Maya from prior Concentrator:

     

    Today: Jack Lifton on BNN about Molycorp, Avalon and Great Western:

     

    watch.bnn.ca/#clip396446
    4 Jan 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Lifton's interview caught me surprised that he didn't mention Lynas.

     

    For newer readers: Jack Lifton, global expert about REEs bought 25,000 shares of Great Western sometime ago. He claimed the GWMGF purchase was the first time he had owned *any* equity in something like 26 years. I repeat, any equity of any company. I believe he only owns Great Western amongst all the REE choices.

     

    I find that a fairly impressive fact.
    4 Jan 2011, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Probably because, as he mentioned, it's the only vertically integrated producer *and* has decent HREEs in the ground too.

     

    Since he mentioned both HREE and refining capacity as important factors, I bet that's why he liked it.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Jan 2011, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (670) | Send Message
     
    Maya,
    Going way,way back, I always got the impression that Mr. Lifton was never a big "fan" of Lynas. He is very north american centric.
    4 Jan 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have the feeling that he doesn't approve of moving the processing and refining plant to Malaysia (and getting a sweet tax deal with the government there, which probably includes winking at some of the more troublesome environmental issues), but that is JUST a personal feeling. He has warmed considerably in recent years to China, now that they are forming a Cartel and going after the polluters as part of the process (or at least using the environmental issues as a pretext to form and operate a Cartel, which is otherwise against their WTO responsibilities, LOL, and that's where MY prejudice shows up).
    5 Jan 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The one thing no one talks about is the fact that no real research has been done in about 30 years looking into the very fragmentary reports from the 80's about surrounding and extended deposits at the Mountain Pass MCP mine. This is a story which I expected to come out after MCP did their IPO, but it didn't...

     

    But of course, there is that huge mountain of their stock locked up and still held by the venture capital guys who brought MCP to market...

     

    I'm thinking that come February we may hear quite a bit about any research they are doing prior to cranking up the mine, including whatever other deposits they are sitting on.

     

    One thing about it, the original mine was never TASKED with producing the elements we are seeking now for some of the heavier elements. LOL, its like the American oil reserve story. If you stop LOOKING you stop FINDING. I suspect a similar tale plays out here...

     

    I still see GWM as the natural takeover target for MCP, the fit is very interesting, and the ore from the South Afrikan mine would fill a void for the combined companies. Its also a similar project, re-opening a mothballed mine rather than starting from scratch, and like the Mountain Pass mine, with its various complex government papers pretty much already in place.

     

    Avalon would also be an interesting match. As Jack hints in his interview, the consolidation necessary to create competetive companies out of the existing chaos revolves around large sums of money. Capital. MCP has about the largest hoard out there in the space right now, and as their stock price escalates (and the likelihood of American government subsidies skyrockets), the prospects are real.
    4 Jan 2011, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It is easier to imagine that Molycorp will scout for bastnasite in neighboring regions now that they are much better capitalized than when they had their IPO. If so, they would probably work with the Bureau of Land Management and perhaps the military in exploring the mountain ranges in the central and eastern Mojave Desert. If they find anything of value, they probably would file a claim to it before someone finds it.
    5 Jan 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I suggest paying more attention to Tasman and its progress, TASXF.
    4 Jan 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We track Tasman (TASXF.PK) regularly. Its listed in the article lead in on this blog (unfortunately, down 5.21% today). I own a core holding, though, and it has done very well over the past 4 months overall.
    4 Jan 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack,

     

    On Tasman my Schwab account shows TASXF closing today at $4.80, up $0.40 for the day. It doesn't show any after hours activity. When I go to the Toronto exchange, I get the same $4.80 close for TSM (Tasman's symbol on the Toronto exchange). However, for TASXF:US (pinks), it shows $4.55, down 0.25 (your 5.2%) from $4.80. The $4.80 price is as of 3:59, and the $4.55 price is as of 3:57 (with much less volume). I'm confused. Which is the "real" Tasman price? It seems unlikely there would be that big a spread between the Toronto exchange and US pinks.

     

    4 Jan 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's odd. I just rechecked the listing I use (sourced from Yahoo), and it shows the close yesterday as $4.55. But I checked my Schwab screen and it agrees closely with yours at $4.81. I have seen these variations in the past, and it IS an issue sometimes tracking pink sheet listings.

     

    Consider the $4.81 correct, and strike the $4.55. I believe Yahoo just got it wrong.
    5 Jan 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, too bad it turned out to be prophetic. Maybe Yahoo is on to something.
    5 Jan 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Triple, I don't mean here. I mean that considering the news on it, there should be more discussion on it everywhere.
    4 Jan 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Looks like the re-trace may be starting. Closed on ASX @ $2.16 and early here is $2.14 on large volume.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: As I thought, the REEs are no more immune from this process than any other sector.

     

    I am wondering about MCP at this point as well. They have gotten really expensive...

     

    I am going to be watching Lynas closely for a re-entry point, perhaps $2, but certainly not until it stabilizes a bit.

     

    This could exert a big influence on all the pennies, of course.
    5 Jan 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stopped out of (AVL) at $7.30. Adding it to Lynas as a watch for a re-entry point...
    5 Jan 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    " HTL: As I thought, the REEs are no more immune from this process than any other sector."

     

    Not necessarily so.. My potash juniors are going up!

     

    :)
    5 Jan 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    What is up with GEM (pele mountain)? Any hard news?
    5 Jan 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some pumping going on, some reiterating of recent drill programs in flattering terms...
    5 Jan 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Teaser about upcoming news (not to be confused with actual news):

     

    www.canadanewswire.com...
    5 Jan 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Saw that. Wondered if that was all.....
    5 Jan 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Island gap reversal looks to be in play - very bearish. And there's another gap from Wednesday of lst week, although the chart won't show it as someone made a "fat fingered" (apparently) trade @ $1.00 of 800 shares, IIRC.

     

    So we should have a good drop to find attractive (re)entry points down the road.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Everything is rotational by sector, Short sales can do a number on these Micro caps like a dragon stepping in a pile of Shhh
    5 Jan 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Here's Lifton's portfolio according to an article he wrote last Sept, it's expanded :
    Ucore Rare Metals, Rare Element Resources, Great Western Minerals Group, Quest Rare Minerals & Tantalus Rare Earths.
    5 Jan 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Back off the floor for a few minutes. One day program for (GDLNF) triggered @ $1.24. Just dipped a toe in lets see where it goes.
    5 Jan 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    A new commenter posted this penny REE on 2 REE stock article linked upstream. I took a peak and it looks interesting I may put a couple of K on the board to track it. Any thoughts?investorshub.advfn.com...
    5 Jan 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    With almost 800 million shares outstanding and trading at $0.03, SRSR sounds more like a lottery ticket than a stock. Of course, some lottery tickets are winners.
    5 Jan 2011, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    True true. That is the nature of pennies. LOL.
    6 Jan 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): A decent attempt at a DCF/NPV evaluation of Mollycorp. Some of his assumptions may be suspect and there are some considerations overlooked. But well worth the read and a couple of comments are quite pertinent too.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    5 Jan 2011, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    (Jan 6, 2011) "Significant" heavy rare earths find at Australian copper/cobalt project

     

    With a significant heavy rare earth element intercept at the China Yunnan Copper Australia (ASX: CYU) Mount Dorothy copper cobalt prospect, investors are providing very strong support for the stock.
    The company's shares are up 52% in morning trade to $0.335, after peaking at $0.385. tinyurl.com/294fzmp
    6 Jan 2011, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Down day in the market today, dollar is up slightly against the Euro, though down against the Yen and Pound.

     

    We are continuing to see a linkage between many commodities (pm, ree, some strat materials) and oil. This seems to be something that the major brokers are doing, though the logic escapes me. I suspect this is just misinformation, and the "logical" correlation will vanish as soon as oil establishes an upward bias.

     

    Anyway, I am shopping, viewing this as a buying opportunity.

     

    Picked up more (LYSDY.PK), (GBG), (ICO), (XING) and (PAL).
    6 Jan 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I'm still holding out. I took a look at some charts last night, like UUP, GLD, SLV, etc., which can be applied as a not so remote REE indicator.

     

    I see the dollar getting stronger short term against the euro. Silver (SLV) has dropped below the 50 day, and there was a HUGE option put against GLD announced two days ago. Silver *may* plummet on Monday; a pure guess based upon some technicals and a bit of eroding sentiment and sector rotation. So will gold.

     

    Today is far and away my worst day in some time with the REEs. May be some more downside before it's time to add.

     

    Best opinion I can offer.
    6 Jan 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Holding fast and long...
    6 Jan 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I spotted this in the news on Lynas (LYSDY)

     

    Bob Pisani picked up Jon Hykawy's note on SA tinyurl.com/26sg8el (Is Molycorp Really Worth $4.7B?)

     

    Basically, Hykawy claims that once Lynas and Molycorp come on-line, there will be an over-supply of certain rare earths and this will cause prices to plunge. Hence, Molycorp is over priced.

     

    I happen to agree that Molycorp is over priced. However, I wrote an extensive comment on Hykawy's premise and pointed out that there is a difference between total supply and total reliable supply... but who cares what I said...

     

    So I suspect the market over generalized and assumed that because Molycorp is likely over priced, Lynas is also over priced.

     

    The market is not making the important distinction between total supplies and total reliable supplies... That's too bad for the market... in the mean time, I am accumulating Lynas.

     

    6 Jan 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. They're assuming that the amount of REEs coming out of China will remain the same. If they scale back their quotas and crack down on the black market mines, the supply of REEs will be drastically reduced.
    6 Jan 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The reductions have already occurred, and the crackdown on the outlaw mines is a done deal. The smugglers may still be there, but they are smuggling something besides REEs now.

     

    Even the "35% reduction" is a number made against last year's quotas, which in turn were lower than the year before, etc.

     

    Japan has already been pulling REEs from its strategic reserves, and South Korea is tapped out. They are trying to supplement what they have (and the insufficient shipments they can get out of China) with recycling, though for many of the elements this doesn't look to be able to fill the void, even after it gets ramped up and working. Costs to recapture some of the elements will be very high, the energy costs alone will be a multiple of the current market price, much less the original cost. There is a reason why Japanese companies are cutting deals with Lynas and MCP for years ahead, despite what some folks see as "high prices".

     

    The numbers represented by Lynas and MCP COMBINED (when and if they finally go into full production, ignore the tiny production they might generate now, or even later this year) will total a small fraction of the world demand. Doubtless their additional production WILL result in price reductions in the stilted and distorted market for REEs that we see now, but its unlikely that those price reductions will move the price below the increased prices China is charging for their exports. Its not smart to equate "...more supply, lower prices..." with a zero sum market where NOTHING is zero sum. Demand is upwardly mobile as well, and those who DO control the price (China) are unlikely to do any acts of kindness to either competing sources OR customers.

     

    Many of the assumptions being published by the pundits and xperts involve China altering their policy to fit the sensibilities of the pundits (something I would not hold my breath for). They also call for the Chinese to simultaneously be perfectly truthful (ie, the reason for the quotas has nothing to do with their desire to monopolize high tech manufacturing) and totally untruthful (ie, their estimates that their REE reserves have been greatly depleted).

     

    Underlying all of this is the snide idea that the Chinese and the miners are just having a huge joke at our expense - that these materials are cheap because they have ALWAYS been cheap - that dense, commercially viable deposits are not "rare" but actually commonplace - and that its all just a scam.

     

    In the end one researches the topic and reaches a conclusion that ties in with one of the scenarios.

     

    I have done so, and I find the REE narrative compelling, and pointing toward a long term success story for those who invest. I am long many REE stocks for this reason.

     

    Picked up some more (LYSDY.PK) at $19.45...

     

    Continuing to watch MCP, as I have mentioned several times...
    6 Jan 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Put 1K (SRSR) on the board for grins. Added to (LYSCF). Fun day on the market. Now it's back to the floor.
    6 Jan 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    QREDF looks like it is in the process of forming a H&S bottom...right shoulder currently.

     

    SGQRF, South Gobi, Coal, Mongolia
    6 Jan 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » english.peopledaily.co...

     

    It appears that China's new REE Cartel may have a problem meeting their environmental goals.

     

    Maybe 90% of their mines...

     

    Note that this news is NOT a component in the news cycles we are watching....

     

    [quote] Wang said that many domestic rare earth mills cannot reach the new standard, which restricts the emission limits.

     

    "Judging from the draft of the standard, 90 percent of China's rare earth producers cannot reach the requirements," an industrial expert told the Economic Observer. [quote]

     

    Also note that the Chinese see the low cost history of REEs as reflecting the lack of environmental standards.

     

    Its a new game, and much as I look around, I find nohting that compels me to ignore common sense and believe the "...rare earths aren't rare..." crowd anymore than I believe the "...earth is flat..." crowd.
    6 Jan 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like a perfect setup for a de-facto reduction in shipments from less-favored miners, using the environmental concerns as the reasoning, resulting in reduced shipments overall, keeping prices higher.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, HT: And once MCP and Lynas get up and running, suddenly, (big surprise) there's a huge glut of LREEs on the market.

     

    That's why that little figure of 1250 tonnes of HREES produced by Great Western starting next year becomes worth all the more.
    6 Jan 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Yep - I'm eyeballing (GWMGF) trying to pick a heads-uppoint for possible re-entry.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    I'm sitting on (GWMGF) all house money no down side with $0.15 basis. When/if dilution occurs it probably won't be severe enough to bring that position into the red. I may buy more at that time. Until the smoke clears I'm looking at other miners (LYSCF) in particular.
    6 Jan 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Buying opp is here.

     

    None of the companies we are tracking require prices above the current Chinese price list to be profitable...

     

    Extremely profitable.

     

    In fact, the 2009 prices would have done just fine.

     

    BUT any analysis of the potential income from the various mines should do both sides of the math...

     

    Price per kilo...

     

    AND the available world market.

     

    Some of the most expensive items have tiny markets. It is THOSE things that are most vulnerable to supply outstripping demand, NOT the established markets for bulk commodities. Lots of folks are taking estimates of reserves on some of these so-called hree's, multiplying by the current market price per kilor or even ounce, and seeing a Jackpot!

     

    While I too see markets for some of these less common elements growing in the future, SHOULD anyone crank up a large opertion to produce them right now, we most certainly would see prices drop... And deposits which lack the common (but marketable with a stable demand) elements in rich plenty might well prove to be unable to stand alone as a project UNTIL the world market grows enough to absorb that production.

     

    As we have often discussed, TIMING is critical, and that means we need to see a real effort from the companies involved NOW to capitalize on a market which is here NOW (or at least over the next year-2years).

     

    Elements like cerium which some look down upon are very solid, mature, and very large markets measured in many metric tonnes. Prices dropping by a large margin, say, 50% will not endanger the profitability of either Lynas or MolyCorp, and might indeed expand the marketplace (high prices tend to do the opposite, of course).

     

    Also, the baseline being used by analysts is skewed, just as it is for other commodities like gold. The world HAS changed! Production costs are going up, HAVE gone up, and those old days "ain't comin' back around". Rare Earths (even the so-called "common" elements) are not cheap to mine and process. As environmental standards, labor, and general overhead have surged in the locations where these deposits exist (and particularly where the current mines are located), costs are pushing up prices. IS $60/kg cerium metal REALLY that expensive, given the costs? Some view $1400 gold as pricey, but with the average all-in production cost around $600-700, is it overpriced? Is a 100% markup in a major market of a major commodity really all that high? I don't think so.

     

    We're looking at a case of overlapping events, with the surface layer obscuring the fundamental underpinnings.

     

    Just as part of the story for gold is that it now costs a lot more to mine and refine the stuff (and therefore, the bullion price goes up), the same issue applies to REEs, in spades.

     

    China's workers and state capitalists (lol, oxymoron alert on that one!) are pushing prices up, even for in-China consumption not related to export quotas.

     

    Maybe Cerium should be selling for $30 now, if China would NOT jack up REE taxes, NOT add on huge environmental fees and requirements for their miners, and NOT do all the same things we have already seen done just about everywhere else on Earth.

     

    The xperts would like to see China toe the pundit-line and make their quota system operate on a sliding scale somehow linked to prices the pundits think are "fair". China has a long history of solidifying their policy position in the face of this sort of outside pressure...
    6 Jan 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is NOT just an REE play.

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    Their mixture of REEs includes other valuable and strategic metals like titanium, tantalum, zirconium, niobium and scandium.

     

    The niobium deposit is particularly rich, second only to the world's largest deposit in Brazil.
    6 Jan 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (670) | Send Message
     
    TB and others,

     

    Wow, excellent analysis! After work, I always look forward to the comments here. I'm hoping that at least until late 2012, we will have a great run. Around 2012 I'll consider selling my Lynas (held and never sold since 2009) when MCP comes on-line.

     

    Hopefully, AVL & Quest will be held for much longer, perhaps decades.

     

    Long: lyscf, avl, qsurd, emmcf, pnpff, tasxf,mtcef,gwmgf,ree
    6 Jan 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Good comments and the truth, I believe.

     

    In for the longer-term is my next plan. Sometimes I get really, really tired of staring at the screens all day long trying to learn, analyze and *guess* what will happen next.

     

    I'd sure like to get some stuff and just ignore it for a long time.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2011, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Then buy Forever Stamps!
    6 Jan 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Yeah right. You know the glue dries out and I'd have to buy Elmer's glue or Scotch tape to use them.

     

    That's no way to save money!

     

    And that doesn't even include the "opportunity cost" of that $0.45 (or whatever it's up to now).

     

    >:-))))

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    They're 44 cents. I bought a 100 today. Since I only use about 2 or 3 a month, that means I'll have stamps to go for the next two or three years, when hyperinflation will hit, and the USPD will be charging $5.00 a stamp because gas is $7.00/gallon! :-) I sell ya some then for $4.95 apiece!
    6 Jan 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    HTB, greetings !

     

    What happens when some REE stocks with no published bid and ask prices and yet substantial no of shares are changing hands, like MTCEF ? Under the circumstances how does one trade them ? Use Arabic trader way, play with fingers in the dark ?

     

    Can you shed some light on this ? I am sure that others may also be interested too.

     

    Thanks
    6 Jan 2011, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I have no specific knowledge about that stock, but your broker should be able to track down what's really happening.

     

    One possibility, for an occassional lack of display, would be a data feed failure. If it's every day, that's probably not it.

     

    For OTC, pink sheets, ... it's often some manual processing required and there is no mandate that orders be entered in the national best bid/offer system. This is more likely on thinly-traded stocks, which it appears this one is.

     

    There's also a possibility that entered orders are not "presented". This is essentiall the same thing I guess. But from personal experience I can say that I've had cases where NBBO is displayed but my order never shows even though the platform shows I have a live order. It was xplained to me that the OTC markets have their own rules and don't have to "present".

     

    I mention that because the market maker for that stock may just not ever present, for whatever reason. I see that it trades on the NASDAQ OTC Bulletin Board (Pink Sheets). This is the same MM that was involved with the stock I had the question about. Your broker may have a way to get the bid/ask for you, since most brokers have OTC "desks" that can interface with the market makers.

     

    Oh! Almost forgot. It may be that the suffix, such as ".PK" is needed on the trading platform and service you use? Your provider could answer that question for you too.

     

    From the volume of trading, I deduce that it is not one of those infamous "dark pools". Those seem to be mostly for high-rollers on very desirable stocks with very large trade amounts.

     

    I'll check in on the stock later today and see if I can see an NBBO display so we can tell if it's related to your platform or feed. I'll post if I see anything or not.

     

    HTB ... OOPS! Now I'm infected! ;-))
    7 Jan 2011, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I think Robert has your solution. I just pulled up time & sales and said show all. From 07:59 until 10:17, showed two trades, but no bid ask.

     

    Switched to real time and got bid and ask beginning @ 10:16:01.

     

    Depending on your platform, keep in mind that stuff working in real time might miss the entry of the bid and ask, although the market depth level 2 ought to be showing everything in the system at that moment. But time and sales in real time will only pick up what comes in new.

     

    So maybe it's selecting the right tool and setting the parameters (e.g. historical and start/end times vs. real time).

     

    I hope that helps.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Thank you very much for the explanation. You are a big help.

     

    I do all my trading on line and hardly ever talk to the broker. I do my own dd. On the pink sheet stocks like most of the REEs, does it help to trade through the broker ?
    7 Jan 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I've never done that. But as Robert pointed out, you can at least get current bid/ask from them if your on-line is displaying it.

     

    But as I mentioned, it could be just a data feed or parametrs problem. Your platform provider should be able to help determine what the situation is and provide help correcting it, if there is a fix available.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Jumpy fingers. I meant HTB. my apology !
    6 Jan 2011, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    I thought that I typed HTL yet HTB appeared again.
    my apology again.
    6 Jan 2011, 09:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    Must be a new neurological disorder you've discovered!

     

    NP, I suspected you meant me.

     

    I do a "brain dump" up in response to your first attempt.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    As you may recall I was having similar difficulty trading Bonal International (BONL) which rarely shows trades and the presented quote is invariably wrong. The solution from my platform is to call the desk. They access the stock in real time giving me the correct quote and if I desire placing the trade for me. On my platform there is no extra charge and the same commission is charged. I hope that helps.
    7 Jan 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1420) | Send Message
     
    Triple: very nice analysis. We will likely see these ree stocks be fairly volatile for a while, and the phony ones weeded out.

     

    IMHO, there is a political question here. Will the US (and others) begin to respond to a developed, highly sophisticated China (as opposed to a backward third world labor force) with economically defensive policies. I don't mean tariffs, but focusing on some tactical "on-shoring." If so, strategic development of ree, energy, etc. domestically and from nearer allies seem essential. There are some industries that have been way too outsourced from a national security standpoint.
    7 Jan 2011, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Lower, I see China playing the bully-boy now because they can. For a really bad analogy, read on!

     

    I'm in Florida right now and just took my nieces to Monkey Jungle where the resident zoologist /primate specialist noted that the monkeys fight for dominance in the social order daily. Every day there is screeching, mock fighting, real fighting, etc. all to determine the social status within the troop. We're primates, too. And our governments typically act -- often at our behest or on our behalf -- like screeching monkeys (or chest-thumping great apes) in asserting dominance.

     

    But dominance is a shifting thing. China has an aging population with no social safety net and a culture that demands taking care of and respecting the aged / a workforce that is restive at best and rebellious at worst / too little water for too many people / polluted land, water and air that must be cleaned for public safety / etc, etc.

     

    In the physical world a body in motion tends to remain in motion until met by an opposing force; in the geopolitical, however, I am not among those analysts who believe the same rules must apply. Sometimes exhaustion, inflation, or other internal factors are quite enough. Or maybe just from hubris, by taking advantage of a transient situation and pushing too hard thus alienating too many others in the troop who might have been allies if only they had been less egregiously arrogant...
    7 Jan 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The REE story has a whale of a geopolitical element, no question. China is playing a very powerful card here, and playing it with great success and elan, imo. The pundits seek to ignore this element, at their peril. However, China has played the greater geopolitical game extremely well, balancing predatory economic policies with financial reinvestment in their host markets, thus creating a wall of MAD (mutually assured destruction) in key countries to guard their penetration in those countries.

     

    There is a potentially great impact coming from the domestic political scene as well. Will the new Republican force in Congress choose to put forth a strategic move based upon the RESTART bill? I believe so, and this might well become a headline news event as the rare thing that bipartisan groups support.

     

    I consider 2011 to be the year that many powerful forces within the REE sector begin. We will see for the first time how the new Chinese Cartel will work - how a full year of sub-demand supply plays out against a backdrop of sparking shortages in random places - and how well important consumers like Japan and South Korea cope. It will also be the year that sees countries and corporations around the world initiate stockpiling of REEs, which ironically will have a major hand in how the shortages shake out. Finally, it will be the year when small episodes of ex-China REE production begin to emerge, starting with Lynas. This "first to market" mantle will fall to Lynas for concentrated oxides, though the real action will revolve around refined metals (2012 will be the year when that action gets interesting).

     

    Don't be shocked when one of the first customers for Lynas' new Malaysian plant will be their leading REE competition. DCHAF will be buying high purity metals -Great Western will be looking for metal to feed orders for high tech goods at the UK facility - and MCP will be seeking to sell Lynas oxides for refining, or to hire them to sub out the refining phase until MCP's own refining capacity (still yet unborn) can be built.
    7 Jan 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Program trade for (LYSDY.PK) executed at $18.20...

     

    Trading sideways at the moment at $18.30

     

    Stopped out at $19 and change late yesterday, retaining (LYSCF.PK) core.

     

    Buying opp. is looking stronger.

     

    Will probably add more (GWMGF.PK), (TASXF.PK) and some other REE pennies this afternoon, if the prices stabilize. I am now expecting a steep "V" when things do turn around.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I liked your analysis yesterday, HTL, $1.82 ($18.20 for the ADR) looked like a good spot to start packing in more Lynas.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If Lynas ratchets down to $1.70's, I'll be a buyer again.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Had a potential shot this A.M. as it hit $1.81, but I was distracted elsewhere (CPST - could you've guessed that?).

     

    Maybe it'll come back to me again.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP is up $4 from its open this morning...

     

    This could turn things around.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I'm close to pulling the trigger on 1/3rd to 40% of the PMNHF but expect them to continue present move .7 or so/ The market appears to be getting antsy on awaiting the "News" but doubt they will want to be out of it over the weekend.

     

    "As goes the first week of January, So goes the Rest of January. As goes January, So goes the Rest of the year."

     

    An old Fact until it didn't become a fact due to widespread anticipation.
    7 Jan 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, Freya, I was JUST looking at Pele and mulling over cashing in some of those gains! I have only owned it for a short period, a few months, but already it is a huge gain. Logic tells me that the actual news cycle will finish the boost, but my habit is to take profits after this sort of run...

     

    But since its a penny, the absolute numbers are not large, so I believe I will just wait to see how it plays out next week.
    7 Jan 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could not resist. Sold a third of my Pele at $.58.
    7 Jan 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    Unless GLD holds around 132.5, my next target is 127.5
    7 Jan 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Gold JUST pierced the $1358 support this morning, then turned around and scampered back up. I have been watching for it to touch the $1200's before starting to buy back in...
    7 Jan 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, looks as if your V is starting the up leg.
    7 Jan 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    My REE board is all green with the one exception of MMLOF.
    7 Jan 2011, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe you were referring to (MLLOF.PK).

     

    This morning, we are seeing a nice recovery (very v shaped indeed, actually) in many of the REE stocks. MCP, however, is trading slightly down, after rallying last week.

     

    At one time Lynas and MCP frequently took turns "leading" the sector...

     

    With Lynas rallying this morning, one can only hope IT assumes that role rather than MCP.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Closed the gap from 12/28, 12/29. Volume on today's down move still fairly high, so I think there's more room to the downside, although it did bounce off the bottom of that gap ($1.82), so maybe not. But all the technical indicators are continuing the down bias the started developing 1/4.

     

    Just wanted to put a heads up here for anyone thinking of adds or entry around here.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jan 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Look forward to 1/10 in the am. What an excellent source you folks are.!
    8 Jan 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Rare earth industry may face tougher ecological standards

     

    January 6, 2011 (From: People's Daily) -- New national standards for pollutants discharged by the rare earth industry are pending the approval of the Standardization Administration of China and are expected to be released this year …

     

    Wang Guozhen, former deputy director of the China Nonferrous Metal Industry Association, noted that the environmental costs of the rare earth industry will double after the implementation of the new standards, which are much stricter than previous ones.

     

    China's Ministry of Environmental Protection approved the standard on Dec. 30, 2010, according to the ministry's website.

     

    Wang said the low prices of China's rare earth metals were mainly the result of the lack of environmental protection costs under previous standards… Wang said that many domestic rare earth mills cannot reach the new standard, which restricts the emission limits.

     

    "Judging from the draft of the standard, 90 percent of China's rare earth producers cannot reach the requirements," an industrial expert told the Economic Observer.
    tinyurl.com/29e3hnr
    ______________________...
    January 7, 2011) (From: Metal Pages) China to introduce strict environmental standards on rare earths production this year, expected to double costs tinyurl.com/2ep7fam

     

    [You need an account to read the full text of the article, but the headline tells the story - expect prices to substantially increase]
    8 Jan 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    And as discussed in prior comments, a possible further reduction in supply, without reducing quotas further, as some mines may not have the wherewithal to comply with the standards in a reasonably short time-frame.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Jan 2011, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The link I posted up-stream somewhere (I believe in this Concentrator, or if not, in the last) to that article in China Daily does not require a subscription.

     

    This article, if taken at face value, COULD well mean some major crimps in supply...

     

    It could also be part of the WTO battle which feathures heavy hitters and might well presage how THAT matter will play out over the coming year. The geopolitical element is VERY powerful.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    There is a New REE in town. Its called Coal.

     

    37% of world's supply went glug glug
    9 Jan 2011, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    And the Coking Coal Contract Price May Rise 33% because of those Australian Floods ANR) (PCX) (MEE)... yes (MEE) is having problems, but look at their chart....

     

    Rails, dry shipping and steel should all exhibit increased profitability...

     

    Reports of the extent of the infrastructure damage and damage to those mines should be closely tracked. I am hoping to have a coal news concentrator up sometime in January.
    9 Jan 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    good idea, this is a major blow to China's attempt to bring down inflation.
    Ain't gonna happen if power generation spikes along with basic materials and food prices.

     

    Imagine the amount of work which will be required just to bring back the previous Mine Safety standards. A month or 2 under water, Shiver me Timbers.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I spent a few minutes calculating market capitalizations, based on total shares outstanding times Friday 1/7 closing price. One could fine tune this, adding options, subtracting treasury shares, etc., but it gives a good approximation of how the market is currently valuing these projects. The list below is in descending market cap. It isn't all enclusive, but it has most of the ones that get talked about here. I'll leave it to others to decide whether MCP and LYSCF are worth $4.5 billion and $3.1 billion respectively. My personal reaction is that whatever they are worth, it is hard to believe that the market has the relative values right in comparing these two with the smaller companies. That doesn't necessaeily mean the two are overpriced; it could mean the others are underpriced. If you had a few billion dollars, and had the choice, would you really choose say Lynas over say 10 Quests? In terms of market risk and reward, the below list has stengthened my preference to be in the lower caps.

     

    Disclosure: I'm in only 4 REE companies at the moment, MTCEF, MLLOF, QSURD and TASXF. Their total market cap is equal to about one Avalon, or five Lynas.

     

    Obviously, these are just my conclusions. I would be very interested in other reactions to the data. It certainly wouldn't be the first time my reasoning has been off base.

     

    1/7/2011 approx market caps, in millions:
    MCP $ 4477
    LYSCF 3142
    AVL 603
    REE 491
    QSURD 331
    TASXF 228
    GWMGF 143
    MTCEF 69
    MLLOF 23
    9 Jan 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Rare Metal Blog posted an article titled "Miracle on REE Street" on October 25 with a similar chart of the different market caps.
    By your calculations, it looks Tasman Metals is really going up in the rankings.
    9 Jan 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The 2 on that list which I consider overbought are (MCP) and (REE).

     

    MCP is a creature of its stock lockbox constraint, which has the bulk of its available stock locked up and untradeable until January 25. Its hard to correctly value the stock due to this factor, though I suspect that, due to the nature of the deep pocket/sophisticated list of venture capitalists and industrialist who own that stock (directly or indirectly) that they will manage that situation to keep stock prices high, rather than crash the company...

     

    I won't go into my problems with (REE), which revolve around its management, just IMO not my pick of that litter...

     

    Those studying Lynas need to review its status on the ASX exchange in Australia, rather than the distorted information available via the various ADR or Pink Sheet listings here. Lynas is one of the newest listings on the ASX 100 (a prestigious accomplishment, like getting listed on the DOW here) - and it is wise to research their prospects as the Western mining stock gearing up to reach the market "firstest with the mostest". Key items are their Mount Weld project, which is very close to full functionality as an open pit mine - and almost as close to opening their new processing/concentrator facility. Note that their deposit includes the 2nd richest deposit of niobium on the planet, and large quantities of titanium and tantalum, in addition to REEs.

     

    Unlike MCP, Lynas has already been through the disruptive steps to create a billion shares for active trading (MCP is almost certain to dilute their shares soon, though the more determined think they will split instead).

     

    I believe Lynas is actually a bargain at current prices. AVL I consider close to fairly priced, while most of the exploratory and junior stocks are of course highly speculative and awaiting the inevitable shakeout and consolidation which we can all expect.

     

    MCP, for instance, is likely to straighten out their corporate structure situation Q1 2011, and should be in M&A mode by Q2.

     

    Lynas has already made a tentative move in this direction, recently pickup up 10% of (NOURF.PK).

     

    Many of the pink sheet stocks we discuss constantly in these blogs are prime candidates for M&A from the larger cap stocks like Lynas and MCP.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Last night on the ASX, Lynas moved nicely from a low of $1.935 to finish @ $2.09 on 39.7MM trades. On the charts here, as you know, it bounced off my target of $1.18 and finished up @ $1.89 Friday.

     

    Volume has been good the last three days and the short-term bottom seems to be in. I wouldn't be surprised to see PPS try to close the gap and run to $2.24, just closing the gap, or even to above a trend line currently @ $2.26.

     

    I'll be entering some today ahead of the flip of the technical indicators telling me it's time.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Excellent reasoning HT.
    10 Jan 2011, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): $1.18 -> $1.81! Sheesh! I need more coffee!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was about to get mad that I missed that $1.18 fat finger opportunity! I bought heavy at $1.82, I'm glad to say (also added more at $1.945 the day before).
    10 Jan 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    can anyone tell me if discount brokers make a market available for Quest shares? QSURD.PK or QRM>V? not too happy with mine, as they don't know of the shares. maybe I have to call a broker?
    10 Jan 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    ETrade does. I've not found a stock (of course, I don't have the breadth that other 'Gades do) that I can't get there.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind that discounters may not trade stocks on foreign exchanges with high fees.
    10 Jan 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I've not hit any fees, but as I said, my scope is limited. ETrade does publish their complete list of fees in their online help, so one could investigate before deciding.

     

    And their support folks can also help answer those questions.

     

    $9.99/trade, 150 trades/qtr $7.99 next quarter, Power ETrade pro free w/30(?) per quarter.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Nice pop on (LYSDY) this morning.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    You're right HTL, etrade has high fees and isn't exactly helping me, unless I call and order through a broker directly. Prefer to trade electronically, but this may be an exception. Will probably have to buy and hold if and when placing the order. Appreciate insights.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    just added to my AVL position to bring down the cost basis. Probably have to sit with this a bit. maybe a bit will be shorter than we think.
    10 Jan 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Affirmation of the reaserch we have been doing here. Once again the bigs catching up with the "Gades.". LOL.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    10 Jan 2011, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Soo... you guys think Lynas will rise past 2.11 today? I have a hunch that it will see resistance pretty soon and fall back down a bit...
    10 Jan 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Drizzo: Greetings. Lynas (LYSCF) is currently trading @ $2.11 up $0.22 I suspect resistance may start to show soon as well but at a higher level than it's trading right now maybe $2.18 area.
    10 Jan 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): I think there's a *decent* chance it will make >=$2.12, IMO. Bid ask imbalance, although not extreme right now, favors exhaustion of the $2.11 level. Of course, that changes off and on. Most of the larger trades are @ $2.11 and few of the larger ones are @ $2.10.

     

    On the technical analysis front, although we gapped up this A.M, and gaps do like to fill, we also have recent gaps above the current level that need filling and the stock price has exhibited a history of filling these gaps - just won't fill the nearest above today.

     

    A longer-term trend line indicates an average up move of ~$0.01 per day and whenever this line is penetrated pps seems to come back into area within a couple of days recently.

     

    BTW, the recent gap above that needs closing is *below* a longer-term resistance.

     

    The other technical indicators I follow had not showing positive bias as of yesterday, but during today's action, several have flattened out from a negative bias and a couple have flipped towards trying to go positive (OBV, momentum, ADX with AD+ and AD- starting towards a cross possibly).

     

    All this on fairly reasonable volume, although it certainly doesn't approach the *huge* volumes seen recently in the big run up.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): $2.12 @ 14:25 EST.

     

    Battle now is $2.11/$2.12, and looks like it will likely settle back, for at least a while, at $2.11. But it will take a while for the settle to happen.

     

    Of course, a time passes, buyers and sellers change their positions, so it might move either way as time passes.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thank you for commenting on LYSCF. Would you (or others) happen to have any technical analysis to offer for HUDRF? I locked in some profits from HUDRF at $1.8 and I think today may be a good time to buy back in at $1.55.

     

    I'm a little wary about the next couple of months when it comes to the REE sector. Last year, many of the REE mining companies saw a significant drop in their prices through Spring and Summer and I worry that we may see the same trend this year.
    10 Jan 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    I've not looked at (HUDRF) and I am loathe to comment too much on the technical analysis of a stock unless I have followed it for a while and can integrate non-technical things in with the technicals.

     

    As to the seasonal, I suggest you take the time to read all the comments in this and one or two of the prior REE concentrators. They reflec the change in environment (predominately the new concern with "strategic availability") that has changed the political environment. Tripleblack is very much on top of these issues and his comments are probably the most cogent of all. I expect your conclusion will be that "seasonality" is not a major concern right now.

     

    Other factors - Australian flooding, (MCP) IPO lock-up, ... - will be much more the movers right now.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jan 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    I expect the IPO share release to be a significant mover. Many of those shares were purchased in the $teens. I'm sure there will be profit taking but don't expect them all at once as they won't want to drive PPS down too drastically. TB's analysis for this event is spot on IMHO. When that event occurs the question becomes will (MCP) drag the sector lower and how long will recovery take? Either way I'm holding dry powder for it.
    10 Jan 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    I agree Robert... we have already seen how a review questioning MCP's high valuation dragged down the entire sector. I suspect a good portion of the buying and selling in this sector represents traders that are just following the wave...
    10 Jan 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    I might go short on MCP shortly before the IPO lock-up.
    10 Jan 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Drizzo: Greetings. The short window will likely be a narrow one. Ensure your exit strategy is programmed so you don't get squeezed. Good luck with that and be sure to let us know how you did.
    10 Jan 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have avoided mapping out any options trades based upon the January 25 lockbox expiration...

     

    Specifically because I can see any number of ways for the deep pocket pro's who own all that stock to game the unway.

     

    Setting up a short trap is quite possible with the resources these guys can call upon. If nothing else, all they have to do is go long the relatively few shares trading daily in the markets (although those few are trading like mad, most of them changing hands rapidly, multiple times), and then on the appointed day just NOT sell, but instead buy. The short squeeze could be astounding...

     

    And then with the proper timing, sell INTO the squeeze.

     

    We will, I suspect, be here talking about any such event, and I will be a seller come the day, or, LOL, more likely, the day before or the day before that.

     

    Those of us who have been in the stock from the beginning have a considerable leeway to operate within, but I would still say that this is a perfect example of a very dangerous and tricky play.
    10 Jan 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (670) | Send Message
     
    Tripleblack,
    You stated that you felt Lynas was undervalued at this time. I've always had a hard time deciding what the peak price per share could ultimately be for Lynas in the next 2 years. Do you think $ 6.00 -7.00 is reachable considering all of the shares it has.
    Any guesses on a peak Lynas share price?
    10 Jan 2011, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From my own scribbling I came up with about $3+ as a good price right now, and more like $4+ after Mount Weld comes on line in a few months. When Malaysia goes live, $5+ would be a good estimate...

     

    And that assumes no more geopolitical nonsense with Chinese exports, a bet I would NOT make!

     

    If anything, I think my numbers are conservative.
    11 Jan 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I am not trading MCP options, but if I were to, I'd be buying out of the money puts, with time lines 6 months out or so, and perhaps even creating put spreads to limit my cost.
    10 Jan 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11015) | Send Message
     
    Haha, is oil a strategic mineral? The news about the Alaskan pipeline is just the latest in snafus pushing up oil prices and raising inflation alarms. Commodities continue to bull up.
    10 Jan 2011, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    I have never been interested in Lynas so have never watched it and know zilch about their property's location.

     

    So, Is It Underwater or are the Access roads, Rails Underwater?

     

    Does Queensland materially affect them?
    10 Jan 2011, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Lynas complex at Mount Weld is located on the other side of Australia in the southern area of West Australia across the continent from Queensland. It is located within the southern hemisphere horse latitudes consisting of climatic high pressure necessary for the development of deserts and arid lands. Hardly any rain falls in that region. Much of Queensland on the northeastern Australian coast, on the other hand, is subject to occasional moist tropical climatic influences, especially right now.
    Mount Weld is located about 100 miles northeast of a gold mining region centered on the town of Kalgoorlie. Kalgoorlie was historically noteworthy partly because President Herbert Hoover developed his expertise as a mining engineer there when he was a young man.
    Lynas will truck the rare earth concentrate southwest to Kalgoorlie, then west about 400 miles to the Indian Ocean port of Fremantle near the West Australia state capital of Perth according to the company website. Then it will be shipped north to Kuantan, a port city on the east coast of Malaysia, for milling and processing.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct, Valley Boy. Australia is a LARGE place, larger than the continental U.S. Some talk was circulating a year back about laying in a rail line in that region...

     

    If I can track that article (Australian newspaper) down, I will see if I can figure out a way to come up with a railroad play...
    11 Jan 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It looks like at least 80 miles from Mt. Weld to where the railroad dead ends at Leonora by way of the gold mining town of Laverton, the closest settlement to the mine. From there the railroad runs south to Kalgoorlie then west to Perth or east to Sydney.
    I thought it was unfortunate that the milling plant wasn't situated in the Kalgoorlie area. From there the advanced materials could have been shipped for export west to Fremantle or east to Whyalla.
    There must have been some political and economic contraints involved in the shipping and manufacturing decisions.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5803) | Send Message
     
    Great information Valley, thank you....
    11 Jan 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2265) | Send Message
     
    thank you very much kind stranger.
    11 Jan 2011, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I went on about it a little bit because their setup seems a bit awkward to me. No worries concerning the climate in their case but their mine seems isolated at the beginning of a long supply line. It will be interesting to see how well that works for them without using the railroads.
    11 Jan 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Down $0.12 on the ASX last session to AUD $1.97 on reasonable volume of 35.2MM trades.

     

    On our charts, through yesterday, I think we might be entering a consolidation period, but it is really too early to determine that's the case.

     

    We have a middle trend line that seems to have offered resistance and support in the past. If it holds, low today s/b $2.01 or so.

     

    But we do have to keep in mind that the correlation of price action on the ASX and here seems tenuous recently, so I'm not really suggesting, strongly, any specific moves. Yesterday's volume was good, price spread was reasonable, we opened gap-up, closed higher than open and a couple of technical indicators started to turn less negative.

     

    Just a heads up if you are trading near-term.

     

    Given the above, I'm planning on holding my new position unless we go towards $1.95 or so.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2011, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    TASXF is up 20% this morning.. woopee! :D
    11 Jan 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    It's the Dines effect, could be short lived. I'm taking some off the table.
    11 Jan 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. We must not lose sight of the fact that the REE sector is still more of a "closet" than a "stadium". Even whispers can echo loudly...
    11 Jan 2011, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    LOL... I'm assuming you're referring to James Dines? Care to elaborate?
    11 Jan 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    His monthly letter came out last night, very enthusiastic about TASXF.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • sneezingdog
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Quest drill results

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    11 Jan 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Here's the Bloomberg Ree Index per TMR. Interesting that TASXF has bigger weighting than GWM:
    www.techmetalsresearch.../

     

    Here's another interesting part, TMR consulted with Bloomberg to create the list:
    "The Bloomberg Rare Earth Mineral Resources Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index whose equities are capped at 15%. For inclusion, a company needs to have a mineral resource whose definition is compliant with either the National Instrument 43-101 or Joint Ore Reserves Committee Code classification rule. Technology Metals Research consulted on the index creation."
    11 Jan 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Tasman Metals and Greenland Minerals must now be catching the eye of European investors.
    11 Jan 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The two companies are polarizing the european investing crowd to some degree. Those who are really averse to anything that smacks of "nuclear power" or mining radioactives like Uranium are avoiding (GDLNF.PK) and picking (TASXF.PK) because it has an unusually small percentage of radioactive elements in its mix.

     

    OTOH, Greenland appeals to the fans of nuclear power (which is of course the source of much of the economic success of the French over the past few decades) BECAUSE of its large Uranium deposit, in which the REEs are a true by-product.
    11 Jan 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The other one to watch in this group is Hudson (HUDRF.PK), whose Greenland deposit is not a primary Uranium play. It lacks the political issues (Uranium) that (GDLNF.PK) must cope with.
    11 Jan 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, tripleblack, that is sharp thinking.
    It will help me decide on the Europe factor.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB, Valley, Boy: Greetings. I chose Green Land Minerals (GDLNF) because of the uranium exposure as you suggest. Once the fledgling Green Land government moved to eliminate their objections the prospect became attractive. Since I already have a stable of REE stocks which are performing nicely (LYSCF), (GWMGF) and (SRSR) I wanted more exposure to the energy production side. Since Great western (GWMGF) is stock piling thorium for use in modular micro reactors that left uranium. Now I have some.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Robert, for the tips.
    I've read somewhere that Greenland Minerals figures that proceeds from their uranium mine would financially support the development of their rare earth mine. It sounded like the uranium will come first, then the rare earths.
    11 Jan 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Valley, Boy: Greetings. You are very welcome sir. Welcome to our group. The name of the game here is sharing investment information for fun and profit. I hope you enjoy this and the other concentrators peripheral to the QCs.
    11 Jan 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I was interested in rare earths from way back but not as an investor. Every time I ran off to Vegas I would drive past below the rare earth mine at Mountain Pass on Interstate 15. The mine pit cannot be seen from the highway which is situated at a lower elevation from the mine. The mining complex looks like a regular mining town just driving by.
    I was sorry when I heard the mine closed down some years back. I still get a twinge of sadness when I hear about a mine shut down or a railroad line abandoned or a lumber mill closed up.
    I attended a talk given by Jack Lifton in Vegas a couple of years ago when the recession started to turn ugly. That was when I decided maybe I better take a look at that sector along with the others.
    11 Jan 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17299) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Looks like our middle trend line may hold. Back up to $2.03 with a nice apparent buy imbalance. ~11:2 presents. Should go back to at least $2.04 sometime today.

     

    This may seem insignificant, but on a day when bias seems to downside, being able to hold around this level portends coming moves up again, I think. Especially after the ASX showed such weakness and we're apparently not going to follow it south.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Jan 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My read on the situation as well, HTL.

     

    Adding more (LYSDY.PK) this morning...

     

    Also adding (AVL), (CHGI), (GDLNF.PK), (ICO), and (REMX).
    11 Jan 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    (SRSR) is up 18.4% which is only $0.01 but is experiencing extremely heavy volume (For it.). Pump and dump activity? Time will tell if the stock closes above $0.04 this could begin a trend line. Any thoughts/observations?
    11 Jan 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    The stock has settled back to near it's open down over 11%. Here is an update on their business activities.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    11 Jan 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    I wrote off Taseko Mines (TBG) for dead sometime back when they lost the opportunity to mine their Prosperity Mine for environmental reasons.

     

    But they're back, with a major hit of niobium, a REE metal which helps strengthen steel. "Only three significant mines supply the global market."

     

    (TGB) up 14.95% today:

     

    VANCOUVER, Jan. 10 /PRNewswire/ - Taseko Mines Limited (TSX:TKO.to - News) ("Taseko" or the "Company") announces that its 2010 core drilling program completed at its wholly-owned Aley Niobium Project located near Mackenzie, British Columbia has been highly successful. Assay results indicate strong potential for development of a major niobium deposit and mine operation.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    Disclosure: I bought some Taseko
    11 Jan 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya: Note that Lynas is sitting on the 2nd largest niobium deposit on earth (#1 is in Brazil)...
    11 Jan 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Taseko is also re-working the chance to mine Prosperity, too. In addition, they're seeing higher output of copper than expected at their Gibralta mine.

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...
    11 Jan 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Canadian International Minerals (CDNMF): this was brought to my attention by a comment on the current lead TMR article. It says Tony Mariano has come on board, which I have not been able to confirm. (He is a geologist, associated in some manner with at least MTCEF, MLLOF and TASXF. It looks interesting. (I just bought some.)
    11 Jan 2011, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    While the REEs are lagging today the PM sector is on fire (JAG) and (PAL) both up substantially 8.5 and 3.7% respectively.
    11 Jan 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9597) | Send Message
     
    Robert: About a month ago I predicted (JAG) would have a darn good quarterly report, because they had not only some problems with one of their mines, which they have since fixed, but also got creamed by the increasing real versus the dollar. Looks like others are potentially thinking the same thing. The real was up 18% versus the dollar. That has stabilized somewhat.

     

    (PAL)'s going to have a good report because palladium has soared in the last quarter.

     

    Good call!
    11 Jan 2011, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    I hope JAG comes thru. It sucker punched me and I've been down on the mat ever since!
    11 Jan 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee, Maya: Greetings. I think that both of those stocks have legs at this juncture. We found a good entry point for them low $4.XX for (PAL) and high 5.XX for (JAG) and I don't think we will see a retrace to that level any time soon as PMs continue to appreciate. I'm crossing my fingers though.
    11 Jan 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13442) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Please go to the new Concentrator.
    11 Jan 2011, 06:57 PM Reply Like
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