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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator January 11, 2011 137 comments
    Jan 11, 2011 12:38 PM | about stocks: IQ, AVL, GWMGF, GDLNF, LYSCF, PNPFF, REMX, REE, MTCEF


    For this chart I have included REE against some other comparable stocks in the market.  As I've mentioned in the past, I have a personal aversion to this particular stock, and therefore I rarely include it, and do not track it, nor have I done any due diligence recently...  But there are several participants who ARE interested, so I have added it this time.  Note that its performance ranks it as 7th out of the 10 stocks listed.  From looking at many such charts, its clear that this relatively high flying and volatile group (top 7) would encompass the upper half of the REE range, although if you add in strategic materials, (EMMCF.PK) would tower above them.  For those fans of EMC, please note that I no longer include EMC in these charts due to the fact that it greatly compresses all the others and makes evaluating the relative merits difficult.  I am one of those fans, LOL, of course, and I hold a core position long in EMC.

    The most dramatic stock in this chart is, of course, Pele Mountain, and clearly shows their recent spike.  IMO this performance is not indicative of anything news-related so much as its inclusion in a large media campaign, particularly in Canada.  Even so, its solid performance in the middle of the pack, if projected, would still place it in the top 7, though hardly with the dominance we are seeing today.

    Note that the two stocks with REE deposits in Greenland are closely matched, with (OTC:GDLNF) narrowly edging out (OTCQX:HUDRF), though on any given day the reverse is true.

    (OTCPK:ARAFF) continues to outperform, and is currently splitting the difference between (OTC:GDLNF) and (OTCQX:HUDRF), the three of them forming a tight leading group.  If Arafura's pink sheet listing did not include the usual high Australian exchange fees for American investors, this stock could well perform even better.

    MolyCorp and Great Western are currently essentially tied, which is interesting given the huge differences in capital base between the two companies.

    Stocks: IQ, AVL, GWMGF, GDLNF, LYSCF, PNPFF, REMX, REE, MTCEF
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Comments (137)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (NATUF.PK) has taken off like a rocket this morning! Up 30%.
    11 Jan 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (713) | Send Message
     
    New rare earth assays from REE.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    11 Jan 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    I don't know why I never jumped in on REE's (Rare Element Resources) bubble machine of a company. Seems like they had some of the best gains in the sector over the new years bubble.

     

    (waiting for TB to update the OP)
    12 Jan 2011, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Look into the insiders backgrounds...
    12 Jan 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): The Aussies made a nice recovery last P.M.

     

    Last... $+/-... .Bid.... Offer. Open.. High. Low... Volume
    2.050 0.080 2.030 2.050 2.040 2.060 2.000 26,897,906

     

    We're not showing any trend yet here, but it's early. Based on yesterday, and chart, we're not *showing* strength yet, but the weakness has not increased either.

     

    Bill
    12 Jan 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Yeah LYSCF seems to be holding mostly flat over $2. I've been lucky enough with my timing that i've sold at the tip of the last two peaks and bought back in at the bottom of the last two troughs... so I've managed to squeeze out some extra profit from LYSCF. I wonder how soon it will bounce back up to fill the gap left from the Jan 4th prices.
    12 Jan 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Observation: Rather odd to me that more shares of GWMGF have traded this morning than LYSCF. (22 minutes into trading so far today)
    12 Jan 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Ehh what makes that odd exactly? Sorry i'm new to this game and I'm trying to learn.
    12 Jan 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More and more activity on the ADR (LYSDY.PK), due to the fees.

     

    If you add in the ADR (times 10) the volume is closer to the true number total.
    12 Jan 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Driz: Typically, LYSCF trades more than double the shares GWMGF in a given day.

     

    Yahoo! Has LYSCF average daily trading volume as 1.832M, and GWMGF average daily volume is 898K.

     

    My "odd" take is that perhaps REE investors are starting to learn the importance and "rarity" of Heavy REE vs. Light REEs.

     

    It's only one day I've noticed this so far. Intriguing to me, and so far today (10:53AM) the trend is continuing: GWMGF 509K shares moved, versus LYSCF 232K traded.
    12 Jan 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Doing nicely today. A nice steady march up, now +5%. Volumes quite light though, for this time of day, so we can't call it the start of a good run up again yet.

     

    But it has been steady today, not hyperactive. That's good IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jan 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm seeing clear indications that the past volumes for (LYSCF.PK) are being siphoned to (LYSDY.PK), doubtless to avoid the fees.

     

    HOWEVER, both are in a light volume mode today. This is actually interesting, given the fact that we are less than 2 weeks from the MCP lockbox springing open - and perhaps a month from the first serious test runs for the new Mount Weld processing line.
    12 Jan 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Please,Tell me again, when the lock period ends for MCP you expect the price to fall in a wave of profit taking, and drag along the other ree stocks with it in a period of consolidation? And figure that is a new buying opportunity? (I'm sorry, I'm a little out of it today.)
    12 Jan 2011, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the contrary, I believe it is a potential short trap. Very risky.

     

    January 25 is the lockbox expiration date.

     

    There is a potential for the profit taking to occur as an entre to the short squeeze, should that scenario occur.

     

    It is equally possible that this will briefly elevate much of the REE sector with it, with obvious opportunities for profit taking on many stocks at many levels...

     

    Or it might make little difference at all, if the shorts smell the trap and escape - OR the squeeze may occur at some point immediately prior to the lockbox date ...

     

    Etc.

     

    I would think that a trading opp. WILL occur, and that it is unlikely to be restricted just to MCP... And I will be bailing from MCP at some point, if not most REE positions if I feel the peak is present and its a good time to take profits and wait and see.

     

    Personally I will NOT be going short anything.
    12 Jan 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    With MCP down and REE flat, while QSURD, TASXF and MTCEF are up it might suggest that all of the articles on increased value of HREEs vs LREEs are starting to have some effect.
    12 Jan 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Snapshot of REE/Strat prices:

     

    Leaders:

     

    (UURAF.PK) up 8.73%
    (NATUF.PK) up 5.30%
    (LYSCF.PK) up 4.50%
    (ARAFF.PK) up 4.17%
    (GDLNF.PK) up 4.13%
    (GWMGF.PK) up 4.09%
    (ALKEF.PK) up 3.85%
    (MTCEF.PK) up 3.74%
    (REMX) up 2.93%
    (PNPFF.PK) up 2.52%
    (QSURD.PK) up 1.95%
    (TASXF.PK) up 1.70%
    (HUDRF.PK) up 1.27%
    (MLLOF.PK) up .04%

     

    Trailing the field:

     

    (REE) down .33%
    (AVL) down 1.21%
    (DCHAF.PK) down 1.65%
    (MCP) down 1.67%
    (NOURF.PK) down 3.26%
    (QREDF.PK) down 4.80%
    (PMNHF.PK) down 6.74%
    12 Jan 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    A private equity co with huge exposure to mcp says it doesn't want to disrupt the company when it takes profits
    www.tickerspy.com/news...
    12 Jan 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » His facts are a little sloppy (Lynas was UP 4%, not down, and the date is January 25, not "February"), but its interesting that one of the biggest investors is talking about standing pat.

     

    I ran across them as a list of backers when I first poked around MolyCorp long before the IPO. I believe they are the largest single backer, and presumably control the largest chunk of stock. Assuming their holding IS worth $1.5billion, that would mean that they are sitting with 30million shares...

     

    Of course, if they WERE planning to start dumping big blocks of stock, would they tell us that? I would NOT count on that.
    12 Jan 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Finished up 3 pennies @ A$2.08 on reduced volume of 24.166M (~66% of yesterday) trades. Good price range, A$2.05-A$2.12 after an open @ A$2.07.

     

    Not a rocket ride, but supportive of a possible steady ride up our middle trend line.

     

    Early bid/ask here looks like an open @ $2.10 is possible, but we've got another 18 minutes before the open for bids and offers to shuffle around.

     

    After $2.10, a 4 cent spread at the next level indicates we could see some volatility with initial pressure on the sell side. But as before, these can get re-shuffled as time passes.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    If I may humbly add an opinion. The RE sector seems to have quite a good trading outlook for the year and beyond. If taking a medium term overview, there may be three or so (my guess) periods this year when the sector as a whole pops and makes new highs in the process. This can happen in a very hot sector, which I believe many metals are in. The consolidation period can be painful if we look to short term, but not so in the medium term. I am a bit underwater right now but hope patience is on our side.
    13 Jan 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "If I may humbly add an opinion"

     

    Humbleness is always welcome -we don't want to be outshone! ;-)))

     

    Good to see you here.

     

    I think most of us agree with your assessment. Further, I doubt than anyone of the folks see *less* than a several year long trend upward, due to all the issues that the folks have laid out.

     

    I think those of us who trade it, like me, do so not because of a bearish outlook, but because the time-frames will be quite long and have a lot of uncertainties (esp. the political ones that TB is really on top of) and want to manage the opportunity cost of being in the space.

     

    I, and others I'm sure, are in (and out and in, ...) for the long haul until such time as it becomes less advantageous to follow this strategy.

     

    MHO (yes, yes, we are all at least superficially humble here ;-)))
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. please forgive me entertaining myself - it's a slow day.
    13 Jan 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Doh... I missed out on STZYF's blast off. Does anyone have any predictions as to whether or not Stans can maintain their current price range? I've been meaning to buy back in but I guess I slept on it and missed the ride.
    13 Jan 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The current news for Stans is somewhat misleading... This deal to purchase the railhead (etc) is very much downstream of their deal done about a year ago (concluded Feb. 2010) for the Kygzistan REE mine in the ex-Soviet Union. This is just another intermediate step in re-starting that operation.

     

    This is good news, but before anyone gets too excited:

     

    www.stansenergy.com/pr.../

     

    Note that much of the facility is either obsolete, actively radioactive, or simply grossly polluting (if it were to be put back to the same process used by the Soviets). The first phase will have to be replaced en toto, while the second phase is in storage. Overall it is a mothballed facility with some real problems involved in re-starting the process...

     

    Even so, I liken it to the situation with Great Western and MolyCorp. The fact that all 3 are starting with an existing mine means that they have a chance to short-cut any pure startup that has not yet even started mining yet.

     

    Also, all three are contemplating a vertically intergrated structure, as is Lynas, though in the case of (LYSCF.PK) we are looking at all facets of the vertical intergration being built from scratch - though perhaps closest to completion overall of the four companies.

     

    As for Stan's current price, BECAUSE the spike in price appears to have been triggered by the good news (but obvious developments) that they just spend just over $5million to buy another part of their puzzle...

     

    I would expect their price to settle somewhat after the usual analysis shows that they are still just as far from cranking up their mine and production line as they were yesterday.

     

    LOL, I have been watching this stock for a while, and like Drizzo have just never quite caught it priced where I wanted it, when I wanted it. I have set a Buy@ target for this company at $1.56, which might still be a bit high.
    13 Jan 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (STZYF.PK) is down 6% this morning, trading in between $1.62 -1.63.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Did you end up going in at that range? I want to hold out for lower... I've been maintaining the notion that big sells during and after MCP's lock-up expiration would drag down the prices throughout the sector. Would you disagree with that notion?
    14 Jan 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nope, so far it bottomed at $1.62. My Buy@ is $1.56, and its not a "conviction" target, just a working number.
    14 Jan 2011, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Sombody just bought 100K at 2 cents above the current ask of $2.10. I hope it really means something besides "fat finger".

     

    But overall, considering today's market environment, Lynas is doing quite well IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Jan 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Another Greenland story. seekingalpha.com/artic...
    13 Jan 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Better late than never. Virtually an empty page of an article. We posted a much better review of the situation starting last July in the QC.

     

    Another example where we are 6 months to a year in front of the curve, robert.
    13 Jan 2011, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Seems that the Aussies are doing what we seem to be doing -consolidating a bit for a move, briefly down I think based on some technical indicators and a gap that needs filling. Add in that it's a Friday, often a day of doldrums, and this would seem to be a good time to make that adjustment before doing another run up.

     

    But, CNBC did do a piece this morning at 06:25 on the REE space and I figure they'll probably do a couple more during the day, so who knows which way we're likely to go.

     

    ASX pps is still above the 20 day SMA, but looks like it wants to go shake hands with it. My best estimate is that right now the 20 is ~A$1.86 and is still rising. Our 20 is $1.90, rising and just entering the range of a recent gap ($1.91 - $2.02) that needs filling.

     

    Although we've not recently been following the ASX lead, today looks like we might do so unless the CNBC blather has an effect.

     

    Hm, unusual. Got a pre-market trade just now. 12K shares @ $2.0759, about a penny and a half above yesterday's close.

     

    Anyway, here's ASX results from last evening.

     

    Last 2.030
    $+/- -0.050
    Bid 2.030
    Offer 2.040
    Open 2.070
    High 2.080
    Low 2.020
    Volume 21,387,219

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    They are still in the "Is it fish or fowl?" mode. www.cnbc.com/id/410744...|headline|quote|text|&...
    14 Jan 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The usual nonsense.

     

    Nothing before 2015...

     

    Except for the fact that both Lynas and MCP are proposing to crank up production this year - and that both recently indicated plans to double their earlier production plans.

     

    It also ignores Great Western, which although I too am rather impatient with them, there is no discounting the fact that they COULD fulfill the non-mining aspects immediately (and will almost certainly begin refining oxides into metal and finished goods for miners and customers shipping them concentrated oxides from sources like MCP and Lynas).

     

    Pshaw. More drivel, and yet of course more reason for volatility in the REE stocks.

     

    This will never end even AFTER Lynas shortly cranks up Mount Weld, and MCP resumes scooping up REE ore in its open pit mine to run through its (already functional) concentration plant.

     

    THEN the point will be that "they are only producing xx% of what the world needs, and the Chinese control the rest", which of course will be true, BUT no reason why these companies won't themselves be profitable and growing like mad.

     

    The argument also ignores its own faulty premise, ie, that since MANY of the junior miners (GWM, Arafura, Avalon, Tasman and Stans among them) WILL begin production in 2015 or thereabouts, there is a definite likelihood that the sector will grow and perhaps China will turn into a customer rather than the sole source.

     

    Its madness for the human race to put all its eggs in one basket, but these pundits appear to look upon that condition as not only acceptable but preferred.

     

    Insane.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Opened below our middle trend line. Likely won't get there today, but will be looking now to add when the gap is entered or closed, depending on the charts, hype, ...

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    "Love" the way you keep up with LYSCF, can tell you keep close track for all here. See now many are trading and get the picture from all sides (due dil, short/med/long term). By the way, can I get definition of "gades"? Have a fairly good idea, but not sure which is which. The big guys or small fish like me.
    14 Jan 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    All are 'Gades. Started when we had some issues with SA and we all migrated to another service for a bit. IIRC, O.G nicknamed us the "SA Renegades".

     

    When we migrated back and continued our efforts at sharing for all to succeed, the name stuck.

     

    There's no "big guys" or "small fish" here. Just a whole bunch of "non-victims" of the "apparatus".

     

    Out success individually depends on all contributing as their time and skill and sources permits. The aggregate capabilities benefits all of us much more than any of us could benefit from just our own resources.

     

    To date, we seem to be well ahead of the MSM in many areas, thanks to those that do expend the effort and share.

     

    That gives us a small edge. And no, its not socialism! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. 'Gade-hood is a state of mind...

     

    And bringing some effort to the larger work, which is to accumulate knowledge/data so we can all benefit. We attempt to cut through the fog of war which the Boyz seem to use to fleece the little guys.

     

    For newcomers, I heartily recommend reading back through the various Concentrators (as in "accumulate knowledge/data"), as well as the central repository in the Quick Chats which the glorious Ms. OG began (now well over 100 blogs, each brimming with data) and which HTL is now shepherding (I believe I've got the duty next month).
    14 Jan 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Robert is next month (based on my heretofore infallible associative processor LOL!).

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    stockhawk: We Renegades tackle a broad area of subjects. First and foremost, it's all about investing in the markets. But we also debate geopolitics, and do our best to be proactive about market trends.

     

    I'm ever so amazed how often we beat the MSM to the punchline.

     

    We are all serious investors, who also try to have a little fun along the way.

     

    All information that we gather is open to everyone here on Seeking Alpha. I will add that for well over a year, the brass at SA has spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to copy what we do, unsuccessfully.

     

    We're somewhat like an investors forum, or even better yet, a Face Book within Seeking Alpha.

     

    Here's a link to what we now call "Quick Chat." Our 138th edition!

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    14 Jan 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Started what I've been awaiting. PPS has dropped to slightly below a longer-term support line.

     

    If it continues, we should get to an attractive entry/add point again. The nearest support below here is ~$0.53, but I have a hard time envisioning it get that low again in this environment.

     

    Anybody got a target in mind?

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I added big time at the $.50 mark, but I must admit I've been cogitating that very issue. I believe its about time for some serious news from those folks... I'll poke around and see what I can find out. They were burning through their cash pretty quickly, last I looked, and they have some serious expenses coming up with the South Afrikan mine...

     

    And unlike Lynas and MCP, they don't have multiple corporate deep-pockets standing in line to sign big contracts...

     

    If the cash burn has slowed down, I should be able to judge that, in which case my idea is that they are going to follow a "go slow" policy until they entice a larger white knight (MCP, who will be able to contemplate such things in a few weeks, if my estimate is correct)....

     

    OR dilute to raise more capital to carry through the initial phases of reopening that mine.

     

    Needless to say, it makes a lot of difference whether it ends up being choice #1 or choice #2.
    14 Jan 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Thank you kind Sir!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Well I question whether I should even bother making this claim, as I have relatively little experience with trading and not even a resemblance of empirical data to support the claim... but I just don't see GWMGF going that far below $0.60. Its just a feeling though, and I know we're "supposed" to keep those darned things out of this.

     

    By the way, I'd like to participate as much as I can even though I rarely (if ever) have any insightful information to share. I'm mostly just chasing the scent of information. But I find it more engaging to at least write something, since I've been keeping up with all of these threads for many months without even registering an account. I sincerely hope that I don't drag down the level of intellectuality that goes on in these threads by posting uninformed, unsupported predictions and asking shallow questions.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Don't worry about it. I'm also not a great intellect or very experienced. I'm working hard on the learning part.

     

    But I've time and access to listen up, catch things on the tube or in articles that might be of interest or use ... "grunt work".

     

    See, no how smart or experienced one is, there's just not enough time to fully cover all the bases.

     

    But in aggregate, we can come much closer.

     

    I took a small degree of pride when Maya tagged me as a "watcher". It acknowledged that the efforts I expended did contribute.

     

    A group like this *needs* lots of watchers. And as time passes (ALERT! $0.50 word that I absolutely love coming) we may transmogrify into a knowledgeable contributor.

     

    So, please don't be shy. And keep in mind the old adage that "There's no dumb questions". About the only sin is asking without trying to at least do some basic investigation as that just transfers the time burden from those that didn't do it to those that did do it.

     

    And I've not found many here that are friendly to that.

     

    Welcome! Pick a spot in the pool that suits you and jump in!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I'm sitting on (GWMGF) all house money. I'll wait to see which door they open before adding.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that they issued $0.50 options to the execs.
    14 Jan 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    A red day so far (at least for my REEs). I would have thought that 2011 prices starting off with an increase would have helped the sector. (Kaiser has mentioned it, and Lynas home sire shows an increase in its basket this week). It would appear to indicate that despite the increase in the quotas compared to second half of 2010 that users are stockpiling in anticipation of further tightening in second half of 2011. Should be good for us if media ever focuses on it.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (271) | Send Message
     
    Now I get the picture, an excellent way to approach things. I've got a lot of reading/catching up to do. Will add any input as progressing.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Take another peak at the quotas. There are actually TWO sets of quotas each year. Comparing the first half of the year's quotas from 2011 to the 2nd half last year is deceptive. Properly, the two halves have to be aligned, ergo, comparing the first half 2011 to the first half 2010. In this way, the 35% reduction becomes clear. If anything, it is this confusion which is leading some pundits and xperts to over-estimate the likely shipments and to under-estimate the shortfall.

     

    Otherwise, you are correct. "Logic" in general has little to do with what is happening. The kindest thing I can say about the bulk of the MSM reporting on this matter is that it is "grossly inaccurate" (whereas my true opinion is that it is simply agitprop).
    14 Jan 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I know about the two sets. That is why the 2011 first half was greeted by media saying they were a large decrease (from comparable first half 2010) and media saying they were a large increase (fron second half 2010). Point is the current price increase is unambiguous.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And inevitable. China increased taxes, for one thing, aside from setting higher base prices.
    14 Jan 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    One of the channels (Fox maybe?) had some negatives to say about the REEs. The commentator called the ree space "frothy", and advised that most of the REE companies aren't producing yet.
    I guess this guy just discovered what it means when 97% of a market comes from one place.
    14 Jan 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pundits and xperts.

     

    "Frothy" is how I characterize what's between his ears whenever he shakes his head.
    14 Jan 2011, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Frothy? Next thing we'll see is Don Ho singing "Tiny Bubbles!"
    14 Jan 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Visions of Lawrence Welk's program dancing through my head! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I just got done reading an hysterical piece by Business Insider's Money Game on the price drop in Molycorp. It just seems to me like a buying situation is opening up on that stock in the next couple of weeks. It sounds really worthwhile to stay tuned during the lockup volatility phase.
    The link along with some others is found at Yahoo! Finance MCP Quotes.
    14 Jan 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Care to post a link to the article? I can't tell from the headlines which one it is.

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    14 Jan 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Jan 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Same underlying assumption. That there is no crisis - no potential crisis - and that China is just jerking everyone around to get a few pennies more per kilo.

     

    Comparing the situation to Tesla (and using the "stock I don't like and don't track" (REE) ) was invevitable.

     

    Pundits and xperts. Useless.
    14 Jan 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Doing a little chart work on Lynas using the LYSCF daily. Recall that I warned about an island reversal that occurred 1/5, usually indicating a strong bearish tendency, and that has played out so far. I've also mentioned a gap below that needs filling.

     

    The gap we need to fill is from Fri. 1/7/10 to Mon. 1/10/10 @ $1.91-$2.02, which, on 1/10, had been sitting right atop that middle trend line I've been watching and below which our price closed Fri. 1/14 @ $2.01.

     

    Except for the stochastic, technical indicators are near neutral or trending gently down. As mentioned in a prior post, the positive stochastic has not been able to provide any support for the pps since it crossed above 50 (and its 14 day average) on Tuesday. We've been in what seems to be a basic consolidation effort with a downward bias.

     

    PPS right now sits just above the lower Bollinger (BTW, bands are narrowing ATM) @ $1.96, and above a rising *lower* trend support @ $1.88. This line has a slope of $0.02/day, so Mon. 1/17 it will be $1.90, then $1.92, ... The one time this line was violated, it traded flat and pps moved back above it in 9 trading days, 12/8-12/22. And it seems fairly strong with an origin (11/8) and 5 successful subsequent touch points where it *did* demonstrate support.

     

    The 20 day SMA is $1.929 and rising a little less than $0.03/day currently. So Mon. 1/17, it should be ~$1.96, ~$1.99, ... without accounting for the decrease in rise expected as the average is affected by the recent flatter & down price action.

     

    With the rising volume on deteriorating price, I expect price is likely to overshoot the above price points as volume begins to taper off. This should signal completion of the recent effort at consolidation and initiate another leg up.

     

    As a side note, we have a few prior support points @ $181-$1.82, $1.78. The overshoot *might* hit this level, but I would be surprised, under the current conditions, if it did so.

     

    If it does hit those points, the chart indicators *should* be indicating a reversal is coming, so I would call them as good entry and add points.

     

    But, presuming that the overshoot is only a few pennies and that our price erosion is about $0.04/day, we should fill the gap (@ $1.91) by Tuesday or Wednesday, be below the lower Bollinger, the 20 day SMA and the lower trend line, ~$1.92-$1.94 by then.

     

    These are again, I think, good potential entry and add points.

     

    Also, the Fibonacci points seem to line up well, using the start of the run from $1.46 to the peak of $2.39 as boundaries. 38,2% = $2.04 (we saw two days of lows right around that), 50% = $1.93 and 61.8% = $1.81 (the low of the day before the gap up we need to fill and a likely support point that is also very near the 3 support points I mention above).

     

    Three Caveats: the sentiment in the whole REE sector may continue to deteriorate as the near-sighted pundits and MSM keep spouting the short-sighted outlook and/or sector rotation comes into play. As TB has noted, there is a possibility that (MCP) may drag the whole sector down with it.

     

    The second caveat has to do with an early unexpected reversal and/or acceleration of the down trend. I understand that many folks play the 20 day SMA and the Bollinger bands.

     

    When the 20 day SMA is violated, we might see an exodus accelerate ... or not. Others may see that as a "reversal must come soon" to get back in line with the moving average and buy there.

     

    Similarly, when the lower Bollinger is broken, the same two POVs may come into play.

     

    The last concern is the possibility that since the longer trend is up, and it appears that we've about finished consolidation, a reversal up may come early. However, I would expect to see some vacillation and reduced volume before the reversal really occurs.

     

    My plans right now are for an add in the lower $1.9x range with the up move being initially strong until it hits that middle trend line (being about $2.16 by Fri. 1/21) and a subsequent move up occurring at around $0.02 per day, being resisted by the middle trend line, until it breaks through that trend line. Of course, after bouncing off that trend line a few times, pps might retreat.

     

    We'll just have to keep our eyes on all the action.

     

    If it does break through the middle trend line, it should run until at least entering the recent gap of $2.18-$2.24 and possibly to the upper long-term resistance line, rising about $0.01/day. Two weeks from now, this would be around $2.35. If it nears this, there's no reason, at the present time, to think it can't make the recent high of $2.39, overshoot a bit, and then ... ?

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): BTW, I overlooked mentioning one really big thing - the swings in the market.

     

    Taking a look at my watch lists, all the mining-related equities seemed to suffer Friday, coal, tungsten, platinum, palladium, gold, silver, with few exceptions (PNPFF, PAL, NOURF, JJC being motable exceptions). The shorts, DZZ, GLL

     

    We must not overlook the possibility that this swing in the sentiment may continue for a while and make all those grand plans I layed out totally useless by the time the prices come around.

     

    I believe that TB, and maybe others had already touched on this possibility.

     

    So if you are laying any plans in the mining space, keep tht in mind.

     

    Recent bigger sector moves include
    1 day down: healthcare -0.18%, basic mtls -0.10%, util -0.03%
    1 day up: capital gds +0.76%, energy +0.8%, financial +1.05%

     

    5 day wkest up: hlthcare + 0.28%, svcs +0.48%, cons noncyc +0.67%
    5 day biggest up: conglom +2.95%, fincl +2.95%, energy +3.69%

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jan 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doing some basic digging...

     

    Ran across one of the better overviews for (GWMGF.PK):

     

    www.miningweekly.com/a...
    15 Jan 2011, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Background on the Palladium (Platinum group, plus nickel, etc.) play which I think is occurring now... (SWC) is majority owned by the Russian company Norilsk, and here is the news which I was anticipating when they recently scaled back SWC here in the U.S.:

     

    www.miningweekly.com/a...

     

    My inference would be that the reserves present at their Russian mines were worth more with the recent runup in palladium prices, which made financing possible, etc...

     

    There may be a move by Russia to emulate China's move in certain commodity categories (REEs, tungsten, etc), including buying up working mines in the West, shutting them down, bumping up the market price due to constricted supplies, and then using the resulting environment to re-invigorate flagging mining enterprises at home...

     

    Should there also be some "off-the-books" inventory available to feed into the high price markets to boot...

     

    OK.

     

    Back to the reading matter...
    15 Jan 2011, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Triple, Norlisk sold their interest in SWC last December.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    17 Jan 2011, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wow, I missed that one. over 40 million shares changed hands...

     

    Though I'm not seeing who bought them.

     

    Interesting that it looks like Norilsk is trying to clean up their act and get out of platinum group production at the same time... Not sure I buy that, the switch to the leaching tech. to get at the nickel makes sense, but leaving nearly half the world's production of palladium (and a large chunk of the platinum) just sitting in the tailings seems...

     

    Unlikely.

     

    I'm now wondering who bought those Russian shares...

     

    Thanks for the headsup, I must have been distracted last month more than I thought!
    17 Jan 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jack Lifton's interview video with Great Western's CEO:

     

    treo.typepad.com/rarem...
    15 Jan 2011, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good source for REE data, also Dines' frequent commentary, for those interested:

     

    www.ree-investor.com/l...
    15 Jan 2011, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    So, what are Dines' REE picks?
    17 Jan 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Baby its cold out there.

     

    stick with energy
    16 Jan 2011, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    Note the battling between American REE companies over legislation (which the Senate ignored after the House passed it last year) for subsidies. The questions about fast tracking permits that might result in lowered (or ignored) environmental standards is the crux of the current debate.

     

    I suspect that MolyCorp's advantage (ie, the only company that has completed all the paperwork and met the environmental standards) will sustain at this point, leaving the smaller startups still, well, starting up.

     

    I also expect Canadian legislators to watch their Americans cousins for guidance in this affair, and the likelihood is that they will both follow a similar pattern and seek a joint policy with the U.S.
    16 Jan 2011, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Mayday. Mayday...
    16 Jan 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (3362) | Send Message
     
    Canada isn't very pleased with our Enrgy Bill of a cple of years ago which was supposed to boycott oil produced in an environmentally unfriendly way, ie oil sands.

     

    I don't expect them to take their que from us unless its very unpopular over there.
    17 Jan 2011, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There have already been talks to combine efforts to create a strategic stockpile, and there was discussion during the RESTART bill conference about doing so with REEs and other strategic metals...

     

    If we get serious about REEs, I will be surprised if Canada does not also do something similar, if for no other reason than to protect their domestic industry (the effects of American government subsidies tend to slosh over the borders).

     

    I agree about the oil subsidies, but then again, Canada back when had their CanRoys which some American politicians (and doubtless Canadian as well) viewed as a way of evening up the playing field. Of course, now that the CanRoys have reverted to corporations and lost many of their government supports, its a game in flux again. Despite NAFTA, the US and Canada will play these games, it seems, and you may well prove to be right - Canada will go their own way...

     

    But I suspect American moves will continue to influence their plans in these affairs, to good or ill.
    17 Jan 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Just an FYI so we don't lose track of the Aussies' actions over our holiday. Since it looks like one of the ASX trading days snuck by me, at the end I'm reposting the results from the morning of the 14th

     

    This morning, 1/17/11 the ASX showed these results.

     

    Last 1.950
    $+/- 0.000
    Bid 1.945
    Offer 1.955
    Open 2.030
    High 2.050
    Low 1.945
    Volume 30,25K

     

    Previously reported the morning of the 14th:

     

    Last 2.030
    $+/- -0.050
    Bid 2.030
    Offer 2.040
    Open 2.070
    High 2.080
    Low 2.020
    Volume 21,387,219

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    LYSCF is making me fret. I feel my 4165 shares at $2.11 are (way) too high. Although I am going to sit on it for 2-3 years, I sure would like to see <$2.00 be a faint memory.
    17 Jan 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Don't fret (much). TB is right, IMO, about the longer-term aspects. My trades are just my way of not letting opportunity cost eat me up from the inside out and raking a little in while I wait.

     

    If you look at my short (for me! LoL) epistle above, maybe you'll get some comfort. Or not.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tomorrow will be a key day for the world markets, unless I miss my guess. Apple's implosion (which will largely occur pre-market in the morning, its well down in European trading today with the Jobbs announcement of a new medical leave) will tank NASDAQ (over 22% of the Index), and may spread throughout the markets tomorrow. If we see anything less than a 2% general market reaction, I will be thankful.

     

    Commodities other than precious metals MIGHT tag along for the drop, but maybe not...

     

    A lot depends on what happens with the Euro, and how the ECB plays the demands coming from the politicians for them to add another $trillion to their bailout plan, and start buying PIIGS bonds in the open market.

     

    Wild day tomorrow, be wary, my friends...
    17 Jan 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, Apple was down a good bit early, but came back to finish down just a bit, while the general markets shrugged off all bad news in general...

     

    Not a trigger event at all. Good. I can stand the good news!
    18 Jan 2011, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    OK. Aussie miners may be weak do to "However, moves by the Chinese government to once again lift the country's reserve requirement ratio meant that worries about demand weighed on Australia's miners, ..."

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    I think TB may be quite right about folks missing the "big long-term picture".

     

    So, maybe the SWAGS I made earlier are out the window as the charts would not have been able to incorporate such information yet?

     

    We'll have to see how it plays out. My current postions are small "starter" ones, so I believe I'll let 'em ride at least a little bit.

     

    Based on the knowledge that the market is a "Drama Queeeeeen", it might be wise to se if the meds have any beneficial effect. <*chuckle*>

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I get the feeling tomorrow is going to be a rough day. Hopefully, NOURF doesn't lose the 22% it gained Friday as I am sure ALKEF will be below $1.00 and LYSCF will toy with $1.90 and below.
    17 Jan 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    OH! I looked at you profle the other day and I think you might be able to help the folks in the "nano patch" blog.

     

    The first one seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    and the follow-on seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I love your charts, HTL. And your analysis, which is more articulate than my own.

     

    Its hard to explain my overall viewpoint here.....

     

    I'm ex-military, from a military family. There are misconceptions about the role played by "regulations" as they apply to battlefield commanders and the captains of naval vessels. Commanders must exercise oversight over their area of responsibility, and at times this means that, in the fog of battle, they must make decisions which run contrary to the letter of some regulation...

     

    Good commanders will realize that their judgement and authority, on the spot, MIGHT be superior to some generic regulation formulated with a very different environment in mind.

     

    There is a truism involved:

     

    "Regulations are there for the GUIDANCE (emphasis added) of the Commander."

     

    Its up to the Commander to exercise judgement and make decisions - and issue orders - which may or may NOT adhere to those guidelines.

     

    Sometimes this results in big problems after the battle or the war is over, but that's also something the Commander on the scene should expect.

     

    In a way, the traditional indications, truisms, and interpretations to be drawn from charted data represent "the Regulations", whereas each of us "Commanders" must recognize those things, and then act according to that input PLUS all the other things which we include in our decision-marking process.

     

    Personally, I tend to filter things through a geopolitical prism first, then domestic politics, then fundamentals, sector and specific research, etc.

     

    There are mega-narratives working in the investing world, some of them quite old (ie, "...gold has never been worth zero...", "...silver is being manipulated by large inside banksters with exemptions to the rules that the rest of us must follow...", "...rare earths are not rare, and these prices will all crash after China gets through fooling around with all of us...", "...buy and hold is the best way to build long term value...", etc, etc)...

     

    In this case, the mega-narrative for REEs that I personally believe is that commercially exploitable concentrations and deposits of REEs are extremely rare, often inaccessible, and valuable - that due to a unique set of geopolitical events starting in the early 80's 97% of all REE production has been concentrated in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party overlords, and they intend to use that power - that there is a very strong existing demand for many REEs, the demand is shooting upward, and unlikely to be side-tracked anytime soon - AND that the whole affair is present, time sensative, and political dynamite.

     

    There are other REE narratives, some of which run entirely counter to my beliefs. These have a variable but powerful impact upon the markets as well...

     

    In the end, its all up to the individual to use their own best judgement - to Command - regardless of any "guidelines" or data from whatever source, though a wise Commander will seek out the very BEST such sources they can find.

     

    One of the essential things we try to achieve with these blogs is to present as much and as high quality a mixture of those basic datasets to all our participants, with the hopes that we can jointly benefit therefrom.

     

    I for one thank god for each and every one of HTL's analytical forays.
    17 Jan 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I will try and get over there and, hopefully, have a positive impact. At the moment, I am finishing up an NSF phase II SBIR grant utilizing my company's particles as novel flame retardants. Oh, the citations.
    17 Jan 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    "In this case, the mega-narrative for REEs that I personally believe is that commercially exploitable concentrations and deposits of REEs are extremely rare, often inaccessible, and valuable - that due to a unique set of geopolitical events starting in the early 80's 97% of all REE production has been concentrated in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party overlords, and they intend to use that power - that there is a very strong existing demand for many REEs, the demand is shooting upward, and unlikely to be side-tracked anytime soon - AND that the whole affair is present, time sensative, and political dynamite."

     

    -tripleblack

     

    TB, I completely agree with this. And, in my opinion, this will be driving force behind well-played REE holdings (hopefully LYSCF, NOURF and ALKEF) over the next few years.
    17 Jan 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Thank you. Because my other levels of knowledge and skill are essentially so rudimentary as of yet, charting is one of the few things I think I'm getting a handle on ... a bit at a time.

     

    But I'm also suspicious of any "tool" used in isolation. So as I try to venture further into this stuff, I'm trying to learn new stuff to "overlay" on what the charts show and make, as you state, a "Command Judgment" as to how those charts are reinforced or negated by information such as you and others bring to the table.

     

    Not the easiest thing to do for many reasons, not the least of which is recalling all the pertinent stuff at the time it might be applicable. This is even harder with unfamiliarity. And because of my orientation, I'll likely never acquire the "lenses" you have at your disposal, so they will *always* be invaluable to me.

     

    As I've said before, you and all the folks that take the time are helping me to slowly expand my scope. And as that occurs, I can look at the charts, see the current trend, read the news and say things like I said above about missing the big picture.

     

    And it's things like that at various points I will combine with the charts, my time-frames, near and longer-term objectives and try and make reasonable decisions.

     

    So far, I have been able to see a significant improvement in my assessments and results.

     

    And as always, I must remember to issue thanks to all as I progress on my learning curve.

     

    Thanks to all!

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    QSURD (QRM in Canada) is one of the few REE bright spots today in the Toronto market, up C.22 as I type. Should move up nicely tomorrow in US unless overall market conditions sink it. Kaiser is very positive about it. Disclosure: it is now my largest REE holding.
    17 Jan 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (QSURD): I've been wondering what makes that one break with the others. I've about decided it's the energy aspect - beyond the REEs use. There seems to be a growing consensus that nukes will be playing a much larger role in the intermediate and long term satisfaction of energy demand.

     

    If that's so, it ends up being a winner in two categories.

     

    Since I've got some dry powder, maybe I should consider shaking some loose and expand my exposure a bit.

     

    Thanks for mentioning it again.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've been grouping (QSURD.PK) with (UURAF.PK), (GDLNF.PK), (NOURF.PK) and some other stocks with similar mixes in their deposits for some time. If the rest of the West ever figures out that France (I know, who'd a thunk it?) is leading the way with nuke power uber alles, uranium will be a strong bet. Even if we DON'T (which is likely, pc-ness being the current tulip craze), we can count on China being smart.

     

    We track any number of uranium plays in this concentrator, including (DNN). Lynas holds 10% of Northern Uranium (NOURF.PK), and is likely to be involved in this business in a big way in the future...

     

    Given that much of the REE narrative involves Energy (capital E), not least of which via the many uses for REEs in magnets, electric motors, electronic devices, etc...

     

    Its attractive to me when a single company encompasses several of my favorite investment concepts.

     

    As for "QSURD.PK", I view it as a long term buy, along with some others with similar horizons.
    17 Jan 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Speak of the devil: "Denison Mines: An Investment in Uranium's Growth Potential"

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    And has some nice recent figures on demand, production too.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    TB: Read "Doc 224899" comment in the above article.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jan 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have a friend in the nuke energy business (engineer type, also another Ford Mustang fan like myself) who read me in on that whole affair. Several times when discussing investments he has mentioned Areva, starting several years ago, and since that time I have kept it on my radar screen (in his opinion AREVA is the class act of that sector), though I have avoided investing just because I avoid situations where governments own companies and pretend they are corporations (this explains much of my reluctance investing in Chinese companies in general).

     

    But that is EXACTLY the sort of background for my commentary, you are precisely correct.

     

    One thing not examined very closely, however, was the fact that the DOE in the past operated its own plants to perform those functions, and still could if it so desired. Those plants are still there, mothballed, though of course some portions of them will be radioactive for several thousand years...

     

    I'm a Libertarian and a capitalist, but this is one of those areas where I would be quite comfortable with the government handling affairs more directly. Not every function of government should be privatized, and this is one about which I harbor grave doubts.
    17 Jan 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    QSURD: It started out as a uranium play several years ago, but didn't have great numbers to show. I believe the current play is all REEs. As I understand it, its heavy REE concentration is much better than Avalon. They also have at least one major area that looks as if it can be open mined. A good argument can be made that its market cap should be at least equal to Avalon (which would get it up to the $9 to $10 territory), if not better than, as soon as it can get AMEX listing. It has said it is actively seeking this, and recently changed to a Big 4 accounting firm, usually a very good sign. (My geology is weak, but I'm a retired Big 4 partner.) I have rarely seen Kaiser so enthusiastic, and he is focused on the results they have been publishing. I recommend everyone take their own look at it.
    17 Jan 2011, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): ASX continues to trend down. Yesterday's posted close of $1.95, which was down from the prior $2.03, is now followed by today's $1.91, closing at the low of the day. Reinforcing this move, volume has been rising as we moved down.

     

    A similar story is seen in the U.S. market as we've had increasing volume as price declines. It's likely that today we see price drop to or below the 20 day SMA, $1.93. Yesterday's lower Bollinger, $1.945 will also likely be undercut.

     

    Out lower support is certainly in range at $1.88-$1.89 and we want to watch action around this price. Recall that I've noted support present on this line at 6 instances (origin and 5 touches) and the one time we broke through, the price came back into trend in 9 days.

     

    Here's today's ASX.

     

    Last 1.910
    $+/- -0.040
    Bid 1.910
    Offer 1.925
    Open 1.955
    High 1.990
    Low 1.910
    Volume 44.74MM

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, HTL. I'm seeing some short term bottoms (near bottoms, anyway) for a number of the REE/strat stocks, and also for the pm's. Gold, silver and Palladium all look like they bottomed and are headed back up this morning. The Euro is down slightly (ECB is arguing with the powers that be over the Eurozone and the PIIGS bonds), dollar is neutral overall in my tracking (down against the pound, flat against the yen, up slightly against the yuan because of Mr. Hu's visit, etc)... But then again, China just cut their loan target, still trying to find the handle on their real estate bubble...

     

    But probably NOT good news for those still sitting in their wrecked cars, er, economies waiting for AAA China to come along and pull their fat asterisks out of the ditch.

     

    ...NYT has published an amazingly (for them) cogent article recounting why green initiatives are NOT net job producers (why oh why do I suspect this has a lot to do with CYA for Voldemort and various of his Death Eaters running the NYT?)...

     

    Those waiting for Hades to freeze over might want to check their thermostat, wierd things are afoot.

     

    ...A flurry, no, make that a blizzard, of articles parsing the brief (and very clear) announcement that Jobs was taking another medical leave of absence, plus hordes more seeking to reassure investors that Apple has plenty of good managers to handle things... This simultaneous whistling past the graveyard is so intense its blowing the snow and ice off the cement angels...
    18 Jan 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    "I'm seeing some short term bottoms (near bottoms, anyway) for a number of the REE/strat stocks, and also for the pm's. Gold, silver and Palladium all look like they bottomed and are headed back up this morning"

     

    This would be supported by a substantially weaker (DXY) this A.M. and in the sectors, Gold & Silver is highest (+1.21%) and metal mining next highest (+.77%) - all pre-market of course.

     

    However, the REE folks are still not with the trend as (MCP) is pre-market -0.50% (Whoops! Just went +0.04% - wonder if that will hold up). But uranium-related (DNN, URRE, ...) and precious metals (PLG, SWC, ...) seem to be showing some early positive bias.

     

    Another strong sector seems to be aluminum. I guess they're being pushed up by Alcoa's recent reporting?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't track aluminum anymore, so I don't know what they base those figures on... But I suspect that the old rule "...as goes Alcoa so goes aluminum..." still works.

     

    But in the case of the big Chinese aluminum producers, they are also part of the REE Cartel (though the largest players are still in the Chinese iron and steel companies which form the heart of the Cartel).
    18 Jan 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    BTW, if we see (LYSCF), (LYSDY) go to the $1.91 (~$19.10), we will have closed the gap that needs filling. Coincident with that, we would barely penetrate our Fibonacci 50% re-trace ($1.93, using the $1.46 low and $2.39 high as our bounds - the penetration shouldn't be a concern in and of itself as overshoots are common. Also that completes a "reversion to the mean".

     

    Adding this, and the other potential support points (20 day, trend, ...) we might indeed see a bottom right around here and either a following consolidation or immediate reversal.

     

    The bid/ask presented so far ($1.96/$1.96 with a substantial sell imbalance) says it wants to head down, as we are currently surmising it will.

     

    But there does appear to be some potential support building at the next presented level of $1.94.

     

    I'll try and keep up with it and post as seems appropriate.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    HT, thanks for your analysis and input.
    18 Jan 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Repost from the QC:

     

    An excellent - no, a GREAT (as in "Alexander the Great") article by John Mauldin:

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Far ranging, big picture stuff. Far as I am concerned, he nails the Euro, European sovereign debt (Ireland in particular), China's outrageous inflation spiral and burgeoning, out of control bubble economy, and of course our very own national spending problem...

     

    Perhaps the best single essay on a current events economic topic I have ever seen. Truly a must read...
    18 Jan 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (716) | Send Message
     
    Wow.

     

    The most glaring sentence in that, to me, was... "the FOMC collectively decided in November to temporarily undertake a program to purchase U.S. Treasuries that, when added to previous policy initiatives, roughly means we are purchasing the equivalent of all newly issued Treasury debt through June."

     

    All of it. All. That's terrifying. The question is, again, for the hundredth time, what happens when that stops? And the corrollary to that, CAN they stop?
    18 Jan 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): I'll just talk the PK to say typing.

     

    Hit $1.93 early and decent volume (now 0.715MM @ 10:15) and has good balance on bid/ask $1.93/$1.94 right now.

     

    Will have to wait and see if it just stalls here or establishes a direction.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Well, they're not going to make it easy on us.

     

    Most of the trades are occurring @ $1.94, but most of the larger trades are @ $1.93. That means I can't tell which might be exhausted first.

     

    For me, what comes in to replace the exhausted price will be important. Do we get a lot of interest immediately show up or not. That might give an early clue as an imbalance in the bid/ask prices that present might give a clue.

     

    Volume has now tapered off, as might be expected as indecision of direction will make traders loathe to move one way or the other too quickly.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Everybody, now might be a good time to take a step back and look at that big picture I keep talking about, specifically, the overall situation in Australia.

     

    The flooding there has had a huge impact on their commodity and export business, and although companies like Lynas are not directly impacted (they are nowhere near the floods), the Australian markets are experiencing a massive reaction. Lynas is a smiling baby getting tossed out with the bath, er "flood" water...

     

    Except the prices have actually held better than one might imagine, given the situation.

     

    Major investors, both Australian and worldwide, have been selling off Aussie assets due to the macroeconomic impact. Australia went from a strong growth pattern to MINUS growth projections, in one swell foop (about .5% contraction is now projected, though many in Australia feel that is subject to revision on the dark side).

     

    The hard-left Australian government is already looking at new "reconstruction" taxes aimed primarily at their exporters and particularly their miners...

     

    Yet Lynas has held very strongly to their trend line (as HTL has kept us so well informed) and is, as usual, looking to play tag with its rising 20day sma.

     

    I added Lynas at 1.82, and again at 1.945, and I am thinking we are still looking at a good entry point, for any reader not yet invested in this stock.

     

    Overall, the situation with the Australian REE stocks (LYSCF.PK), (GDLNF.PK), (ARAFF.PK), (NOURF.PK), and (ALKEF.PK) [plus others] combines with the 1 week and counting time before (MCP) opens its stock lockbox and creates a downdraft that has pulled the entire sector into buying opportunity prices.

     

    The (MCP) passion play aside, this is one of those rare conincidences (manmade machinations combined with acts of the weather gods and reactionary politics) that test the individual investor's mettle.

     

    I'm adding (LYSDY.PK), (MTCEF.PK), (NOURF.PK), (GWMGF.PK) and (PNPFF.PK) today.
    18 Jan 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. (QREDF) up 8% (SRSR) up 3% (PAL) and (JAG) both trending up (GDLNF) flat. (GWMGF) and (LYSCF) both down around 2%. This on a day when market sentiment is down does not represent a bad trend.
    18 Jan 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not buying (MCP), (DCHAF.PK), (REE) or some of the strat metals like (TIE), and I'm waiting for cheaper prices on some stocks like (STZYF.PK), but generally I am buying on the dips, and adding pm's back into the mix with (SNDXF.PK), (GBG), (KGILF.PK) and eyeballing (GPRLF.PK).

     

    Sold (XING).

     

    Continuing to accumulate (ICO) and oil stocks (TOO), (ATPG), WHX), etc., again, looking for dip opportunities.
    18 Jan 2011, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    I've been keeping your big picture stuff in mind. That's one reason I'm so closely watching the price action recently.

     

    My latest entry was at $2.05 (certainly a misjudgment from a tech POV) but the price was comfortable with the bigger picture in mind and it was a small starter position JIC price decided to move up from there.

     

    Today when the $1.93 bid was exhausted the first time, decent bid quantity appeared at $1.92 and most trades went off @ $1.93, quickly moving us back to $1.93/$1.94. On the second exhaustion of the $1.93, again good bid volumes were seen at $1.92 and we immediately strated trading again @ $1.93/$1.94.

     

    I was hoping to see the $1.91 that would close the gap, but that's looking iffy.

     

    At this moment, I'm going to go ahead a triple up @ $1.93 to put my cost basis in a more favorable position.

     

    Risk is no more than a "traditional" support @ $1.81 (also a Fibonacci 61.8% point) from 10/19/10 and 1/7/11.

     

    With that and my reduced cost, I can wait for a recovery if necessary.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): LoL! I actually wrote a paragraph saying I thought we would close the gap to $1.91 today and then deleted it as I lost confidence because of the two cases of support I saw @ $1.92.

     

    Oh well, can't get 'em all right!

     

    Looks like that might hold as the number of bids is large and most trades, especially the larger ones, are going off @ $1.92.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    HT, how do you feel about today's LYSCF activity? Gap filled and support reached, up, up? Or, the other side of the clicking sound on the roller coaster (i.e., downhill)?
    18 Jan 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Well, I tripled up. But that's not necessarily an endorsement from the technical perspective.

     

    That gap being closed and not yet violated is good. Still seeing good support @ $1.92 with most of the trades happening @ $1.93. Most technical indicators have not had time to flip because, I believe, we are very early in the reversal beginning (*if* I am correct - trying to second-guess the charts is not what chartists advocate).

     

    But a good part of my move today was based on risk vs. reward.

     

    I see my maximum short-term risk @ $1.81. Short-term upside ~$2.13, then $2.18, then $2.25 at the "upper" resistance (and that line rises ~ $0.01/day, so if we are in an uptrend and bust through the "middle" one, in a week that "upper" would be ~$2.30) and the all-time high of $2.39 would then be in sight.

     

    Most of these will take some time. Most "chartists" would wait for confirmation of the turn, maybe a few days.

     

    So I can *not* say "up, up, and away".

     

    But as my gut told me (GWMGF) @ $0.61 was worth the risk (now @ $0.65), so my gut told me (LYSCF) was a go.

     

    *BUT*, I'm a long-term MC rider, so risk-aversion is not one of my strong suits. If you are more conservative, you'll miss a few pennies of the upside and remove most of the downside risk by waiting a bit.

     

    I can not, and will not suggest what your move should be.

     

    What I've offered here is the best I can offer for you to integrate into your particular personality, financial, objectives, ... needs.

     

    BTW, another *big* factor in my decision process is due consideration of TBs long, and much more comprehensive, view of the environment in which we are in. That's an important consideration for me as my natural mode is to invest, not trade. The trading just turns out to be a necessity for my mental peace of mind.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Well said, HT. I believe you and I are in the same boat regarding this (i.e. investor vs. trader). Your clear, rational narrative has done me well. Now, back to aryl phosphates and other synergistic vapor phase flame retardants. Oy gevalt, when this report is out I am drinking beer and reading Louis L'Amour books.
    18 Jan 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Did you check out Robert's "Nano Patch"? If so, what's your thoughts about mixing in there too?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I did check it out and will rumbling around in there as well.
    18 Jan 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have the complete collection of Louis' books. Big fan. Sackett fanatic.
    18 Jan 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    More news from China regarding export quotas. Interestingly (QREDF) is smoking up 13%. (SRSR) is up as well but at the price they are at any movement seems significant. LOL. finance.yahoo.com/news...
    18 Jan 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    That article said 90% of rare earth elements is produced by China.
    7% less already!? Is that from Molycorp's stockpile?
    18 Jan 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. If it is I have no idea where they would have processed the material. Their plant is not on line yet. In fact as far as I know the only active facilities in the west belong to Great Western (GWMGF) and I haven't heard of them contracting with Molly Corp (MCP). Fat finger or low balling?
    18 Jan 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Probably just typical sloppy journalism - "Quick, this area's hot!, Whip up somthing I can get out the door", "OK!", now let's see, China cornered market, drove other producers now delivers .... 90%, yeah, that the ticket.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    The rare earths market is reacting to China's comment that they will evaluate their export quotas giving hope 2011 supplies will not be as tight as previously believed.

     

    As a result, the stock prices for all the rare earth companies have dropped. This is an inane response because the market is not considering the 'reliable' supply situation.

     

    The fact that China is "evaluating" should send shivers up the spines of companies because access to China's processed rare earth materials is not guarantied, but under the control of the Chinese government. Contracts with Chinese suppliers are worthless since the government can decrease the export quotas or increase the export prices at any time. They did that in the recent past.

     

    I totally agree with Trip, buy on the dip.
    18 Jan 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    And I also wonder why the market has apparently not factored in the stated more stringent environmental requirements. ISTM that regardless of supply, that means prices out of China will be higher, bringing more pricing power to companies ex-China and possibly reducing China supply (as if quotas had been lowered again) as some marginal producers in China may not have the wherewithal to meet the new requirements, at least right away as bank reserve requirements are also being tightened to reduce lending to fight inflation.

     

    I believe TB has touched all these issues, IIRC.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Because the Market is a bunch of over-emotional nancy-boys that are afraid of their own shadows.
    18 Jan 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    Arnold! Is that you?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The bukdownator is NOT to be trifled with. Plus, a fellow Louis L'Amour fan.
    18 Jan 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): I couldn't stand it anymore!

     

    Sitting right on my trend line support, looking to make a "hammer" (indicating bullish sentiment may be strengthening), I really don't believe it will re-trace to support @ $0.53 ...

     

    Went ahead and entered @ $0.61.

     

    Now I'll find out if I can *sometimes* trust my gut over the charts as most technical indicators say it's weak ATM, except that volume is weakening as the price dropped. That may indicate the drop is nearing its end.

     

    Factoring in the longer-term view, it seemed reasonable.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    What is the basis for the comment about REE prices dropping? Lynas home page shows another increase in its basket as of yesterrday, now just under $80
    18 Jan 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    To whom is the question directed?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe that earlier comment was pertaining to stock prices, rather than material prices.

     

    Since China controls 97% of REEs, I'm sure they will tell us when they want the prices to go down.
    18 Jan 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Are seeing what I'm seeing? That Lynas traded 535,921 shares after close?
    18 Jan 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    I can't figure out how this new SA stuff is working.

     

    I posted 5 minutes after you, but never saw your post even though I went through the tracker to see if any posts were pending.

     

    Oh well, at least we have our answer documented here.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Unusual occurrence. AH trading. *And*, we have a whale in the pool - block trade of 434K @ $1.9231 and another 101.921K @ $1.9299.

     

    I don't recall seeing anything like this before.

     

    Ooh! Maybe my gut got it right! That just means it's setting me up to lead me down the primrose path later on!

     

    I'll have to alert for that trap.

     

    Tomorrow, the trend line support will be ~$1.92. We want to see support there and close the small opening gap we had today ($1.98-$1.96).

     

    Volume on a down day higher than I would like, so may be a bit more to go down yet.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Million shares AH volume, in chunks that big?

     

    Interesting.

     

    I am thinking that we are not the only folks smelling a bottom to this one...

     

    MCP turned positive toward the end of the day, too. I have been puzzling over the future options for Feb. 11 on that one, some pretty interesting numbers there...

     

    HTL, I still haven't figured out what Great Western is really up to, there are no real regulatory barriers to cranking up the South Afrikan mine now...

     

    More and more I believe they are enticing white knights, chiefly MCP, with a number rattling around in Engdahl's skull. They are now using their stock-for-cash deal for spending money:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    Dilution on the installment plan.

     

    My own idea of a current sale price: $1.32/share

     

    Otherwise, we go through enough dilution to get Steenkampkraal up and running, though I suspect they will get some customers knocking on their door before that happens (just STARTING that process will bring the customers running due to User's extremely intelligent "reliable supplier" factor concept).

     

    Even if the MSM doesn't have the brainpower to pour REEs out of a boot with the instructions printed on the inside of their eyelids, the guys running corporations that NEED these things sure do.
    18 Jan 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19488) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Something funny there. The first two (434K, 101.921K) were matched about an hour and 12 minutes later by identical trades.

     

    I recall reading something about when a market maker doesn't have the shares his customer wants, he often gets them from another MM. Then we see a trade of MM->MM and another MM->customer.

     

    Maybe that explains it?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jan 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its also how dark pools and htf sharks work.

     

    Orderstuffing is another method they use to muddy the waters and defend turf in the battles between quants.

     

    That these stocks are now attracting these denizens of the dark pools would not surprise me - in fact, I have been waiting for them to show up.
    18 Jan 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    With that kind of after hours activity, it looks like LYSCF is attracting attention that doesn't like to lose. This could be good. Looks like the entire Market isn't a bunch of nancy-boys.

     

    Thanks for the heads-up, HT. You too, TB.
    18 Jan 2011, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maya was first with the datum. He is one smart cookie!
    18 Jan 2011, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. You da man.
    18 Jan 2011, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. Well done, Maya.
    19 Jan 2011, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please go to the new Concentrator:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    18 Jan 2011, 10:22 PM Reply Like
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