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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator - January 20, 2011 134 comments
    Jan 20, 2011 6:03 PM | about stocks: IQ, URRE, AVL, DNN, REMX, UEC, RBY, GMO

    In this chart I am showing the 4 stocks we have been tracking for a while, plus a new company, (NYSEMKT:UEC) (Uranium Energy Corporation of Texas).  Just as in the last series of charts, URRE is outperforming, but it should be noted that the entire group is literally on fire.  (OTCQX:UURAF) and (OTCPK:GDLNF) are noteworthy since they are combined Uranium/REE plays.  I would like to include the Northern Uranium (OTC:NOURF) penny stock for comparison, since it is also a Uranium/REE play and 10% owned by Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF), but as sometimes happens, the service I am using lacks the data to chart this stock.  Looking at the raw numbers, it appears that Northern would track well with this group, and be ranked in the middle of the pack near (OTCQX:UURAF).

    This chart initiates tracking including Stans Energy (OTC:STZYF).  It's noteworthy as the current leader among the 4 vertically intergrated plans I consider closest to actually producing important quantities of REEs.  This group includes Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF), Great Western (OTCPK:GWMGF) and MolyCorp (MCP).  I also included a similar effort focused on Tungsten, one of my favorite holdings, (EMMCF), EMC Metals, plus the top performing Uranium stock (NASDAQ:URRE) so that the 2 charts can be compared.  EMC is interesting in that it, too, involves a small startup buying a mothballed operation from a major company (NYSE:GE) similar to the situation with Stans Energy (USSR, LOL) and MCP.

    Themes: Rare Earths Stocks: IQ, URRE, AVL, DNN, REMX, UEC, RBY, GMO
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Comments (134)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Marketwatch reports Aussie shares rising in early market action. However, some miners, struggked. They cite Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton both down.

     

    Let's hope godd ol' Lunas is seen as a "different breed" tomorrow morning. I suspect so, based on todays action.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jan 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Big boys are still trying to sort through the flood wreckage...

     

    Our guys are really not directly involved.
    20 Jan 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I have a feeling LYSCF will close at about 2.06 tomorrow (1/21). This is obviously about as technical as Zen Buddhist brownies, but since I am not a chart-master like HT, or as experienced in this sector as TB, its all I have.
    20 Jan 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Hey, charts are just a tool - no substitute for knowledge, experience and "divining the future" (gut hunch).

     

    Plus, my comment above demonstrated that I either a) need to quit earlier in the evening, b) take typing lessons, c) "read what I wrote", d) use spell check, or e) take a vacation.

     

    I'm surprised no one zinged me for that slop.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    LYC:LYSCF is down 0.045 to 1.975 on the ASX as of this post. Also, they released their quarterly cashflow report, www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    Perhaps we won't see 2.06.
    20 Jan 2011, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Aussies must have laid off the pints last night - their enthusiasm seems to be muted by "morning after" effects ... and water woes I suspect.

     

    However, signs of life are reappearing as the intra-day range showed that some are beginning to look down the road in an optimistic light. An AUD $0.10 range with a high 4 cts. above the prior close is evidence of this possibility. But no one came blame them right now for not being able to muster and sustain a "bull rush".

     

    Here on the home front, I think results might be decidedly different if the pre-market actions are valid indicators. As I type this, the "Basic Materials" sector is up 0.29% with the metal mining industry +0.30, the iron & steel +0.96%.

     

    *BUT*, today's Friday, often a "ho-hum" day as folks seem to be often focused on the weekend, unless there's a big scare of instability from across the waters or some such. Then they sell everything, it seems, so they won't be exposed if things blow up over the weekend.

     

    Based on my recent response to the "cluebat" slap that woke me to the consolidation occurring, the struggle yesterday for LYSCF to recover from filling the gap, the lower volume even though we finished up, ... I'll play the "crystal ball" game, just for fun.

     

    $2.06 is upper Bollinger, so it's a "safe" call. But I will be *shocked*, *shocked* I tell you ;-)) if it hits it. I think it penetrates below the 20 day SMA, $1.989 yesterday and projecting $2.0055 on this A.M. chart, again and hangs around down there most of the day. Top around $2.04, *maybe* $2.05. Low around $1.97, $1.96. Volume will, again lower. At the end of the day, we finish ~$1.98, *maybe* $1.99.

     

    Safe Harbor: all prognostications are based on no facts, data, particular acumen, egotistical needs or other tangible or intangible factors that can be discerned by any living soul, including myself. Any success of failure in EOD results are pure chance and should be considered in light of much more reliable indicators, such as a roll of the dice. All data points are offered in the spirit of good fun and the willingness to suffer undue ridicule for the benefit of others at my own expense. Any other use, application or derivative activities undertaken by the reader are purely at his own discretion and results cannot be ascribed to this author for any reason whatsoever.

     

    But if you want some strong action in that sector, non-metallic mining is +1.2%, but this only has a few companies, notably (POT) +1.33% and (SHZ) +4.10%.

     

    This morning, ASX final results.

     

    Last 1.970
    $+/- -0.050
    Bid 1.970
    Offer 1.975
    Open 2.020
    High 2.060
    Low 1.960
    Volume 27.008MM

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Doggone! If I coulda got them to quit trading @ 15:37, I wasn't too far off! :-))

     

    Missed the high by a couple pennies, but 'till then the low was right there and the close was right there.

     

    You'd think those folks would have sense enough to wrap up early on go do something useful on a Friday.

     

    They musta been snowed in at the office and didn't want to go out and fight the traffic with no nearby golf course being in usable shape today!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (12058) | Send Message
     
    A lot of money flowed into raw materials suppliers the last 2 years. And even more is coming. We will see if this triggers more demand or a glut at some point. Gold and silver aren't a big issue because of dollar devaluation and inflation, but uranium, oil, natural gas, copper, iron, rare earths, etc. are succeptable. I surmise that the giant US money pump will hold them up this year. We will then see if we will have real economic growth or more of the same bogus money minting from Washington and the Federal Reserve. If it is the latter expect a massive correction at some time.
    20 Jan 2011, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Frankly, I don't see why there won't be "real economic growth" by the end of 2011. Unemployment in the US will still be relatively high, but that is aside from the world economy experiencing "real economic growth".
    20 Jan 2011, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Glad to see that matamec has an even better resource. I think it's perfectly sized for M & A activity.
    20 Jan 2011, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. There will be winners (companies positioned to be acquired who are acquired) and losers (self explanatory), but due to the remarkably small REE universe involved, and the compressed time frame, this is not a needle-in-a-haystack search as it is in most business sectors.

     

    What might be funny is the fact that, should the M&A cycle be delayed (due to an odd confluence of government intervention, sector youth, and Chinese cartelization), as I believe it might, we could even see multiple bidders for some candidates...

     

    ...And wouldn't that be nice?

     

    LOL, but enough dreaming, back to digging...
    21 Jan 2011, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    ARAFURA is talking to the Japanese re long term contract.
    Source of information is from Aussy publication, Business xxxxx. dated January 20, 2011
    Accidentally deleted the article and cannot retrieve it back.
    May be one of you smart guys can help.
    21 Jan 2011, 03:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    This looks like the link.
    www.resourceintelligen...
    Arafura looks interesting to me. As luck would have it, their flagship Nolans Bore mining property is only a few miles away from the Adelaide- Darwin Railway not far from the regional commercial hub of Alice Springs. Their mine looks easily exploitable. The concentrates will be easily shipped down the railroad to Whyalla for processing and global delivery provided the final permits are granted.
    21 Jan 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    TB, out of UURAF, GDLNF and EMMCF which do you think might be better over the next few years? This just friendly chit-chat of course and in no way could be construed as investment advice. Just input.
    21 Jan 2011, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, this and all other free advice is worth every penny I don't charge!

     

    And, full disclosure, I own all three, so I'm not the one who has settled on just the one...

     

    Anyway, (GDLNF.PK) is the one that brought me to the party, after I learned of (GWMGF.PK) from the 'Gades back when (I had been poking around losing money on lithium juniors until I learned of the REE narrative, Jack Lifton, and the Chinese monopoly)...

     

    Of the three Greenland is also the one confronting outright legal barriers to mining their property due to the law of the land - Uranium mining is verbotten in Greenland (and Denmark, which is where the law came from for Greenland is only just recently its own country and not a territory of Denmark) still, though there are hopes this is changing and they did give GDLNF permission to conduct the usual mining analysis and drilling, which was a deviation from the original legal interpretation and thus hailed as a breakthrough. This entanglement is still a real barrier and something which makes this one a "long shot". However, IF they can start mining, that long shot status means the payoff is equally high. I hold this one as a long term penny, and the fact that it has doubled and then doubled again in value over the past year has a little bit to do with my happiness with the investment.

     

    (UURAF.PK) has excellent prospects, and is NOT trying to do a mine startup which is technically illegal. I believe it is a straightforward play (unlike the convoluted Greenland Minerals narrative). What you see is what you get.

     

    (EMMCF.PK) is a completely different story alltogether, and involves one of my favorite themes, little guys buying a big facility from one of the bigs for pennies on the dollar, doubling its capacity, and getting it cranked up again. There is a lot of confusion over how the Chinese have cornered REE production, but the fact that they have been striving to do the same thing (and succeeding) in other areas - like EMC's tungsten operation - has not received the MSM attention (I guess China will just have to institute another ban on tungsten like they did with REE shipments). Anyway, read up on this one, its an interesting story, and the timing is critical. They are very close to restarting their primary production line, which they have been laboring over for a long time, and when that happens (just as with Lynas' new facilities in a similar situation), everything changes.

     

    So, there we have the 3 VERY different candidates.

     

    My pick has been to grab a big chunk of GDLNF early, take profits as it ratcheted upward in value until my remaining core is at zero cost, and then shelf it long term, trading around that core only whenever the price action indicates a Buy signal. I do not consider Greenland a good M&A target so that aspect is negative in this play.

     

    UURAF is a more recent acquisition for me, and is in my "pack leading" group. They are an M&A target, and might be acquired for either of their primary products, or both. As an independent HREE producer, the story is more long term (out past 2015+), but there's nothing wrong with that sort of plan with a junior miner, either.

     

    EMMCF is a strategic metal investment which, like (GWMGF.PK), (LYSCF.PK), (MCP) and (STZYF.PK) includes considerable physical plant included at a relatively cheap price.

     

    I frankly would pick from between UURAF and GDLNF for the U/REE play (and decide which story fits your needs best) and then also buy some EMMCF for very different reasons.

     

    IF I were just starting out today investing in the REEs, I would choose UURAF.
    21 Jan 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB. Frankly, UURAF was the one I kind of took a shine to as well. I must say, you certainly know your mierde.
    21 Jan 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Matamec Announces a 42% Increase in TREO Indicated Resources at its Zeus Property

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    21 Jan 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): LoL! +8.88% $0.76. I should maybe try to avoid "strategic" moves in lieu of "tactical" moves!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Nice, ain't it! New 52 week high!
    21 Jan 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Is anyone going ahead and taking profits on GWMGF at ~$0.75+? I'm a bit worried that it can't sustain this all-time high for very long and will consolidate rather quickly (by the end of the day)... thoughts?
    21 Jan 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This would be normal behavior for any volatile stock reaching a new high. If I were new to the stock I would probably take profits...

     

    I have a Sell@ price for the trading portion of my GWM holding (don't plan to touch my core) of $.89, but that's just my own idea.

     

    There is little news driving most of the action in the REE sector today, particularly as applies to Great Western.
    21 Jan 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding (URRE) and pms this morning...
    21 Jan 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    TB, watch the 11:00 plunge for a bottom to buy.
    21 Jan 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, DG, thanks for the tip... I snagged (URRE) at a good price, $2.90.

     

    Say, you do know you posted that at 11:50, right?
    21 Jan 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    I looked at the time after I posted that but it seems everyday we get a drop in price around the same time. Its usually (say that carefully) the best time to buy in for us in the USA but sometimes it just keeps going down after the lunch period is over.

     

    Maybe something to do with the 3-7 martini lunch. Market performance is correlated to the number of martinis.

     

    BTW lunch is NOT over yet!! LOL
    21 Jan 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    You and me both, TB. Going to have to wait on UURAF, however.
    21 Jan 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Updating Targets:

     

    The following REE/Strat. stocks are currently trading within my Buy target range:

     

    (URRE), (MTCEF.PK), (ALKEF.PK), (NOURF.PK), (RBY), (EMMCF.PK), (CHGI).

     

    I just added more URRE.

     

    I am Watching (RBY), it is still trending down, doing the same with (CHGI).

     

    I consider (ALKEF.PK) and (NOURF.PK) Buys at this time, but the ASX fees annoy me enough to make me wait. I am holding a core position in Northern Uranium.
    21 Jan 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    SOB
    21 Jan 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I put another $1000 in URRE at 2.79
    21 Jan 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Lunch over at precisely 13:00 and silver on the rise since. Looks like it was a light martini lunch. Now if we just knew the bartender we could make money off the skinny.

     

    Would that be considered insider trading? LOL
    21 Jan 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bukdow, you got some (URRE) cheap this afternoon. Guess I bought just a little bit early!

     

    Now the tough part, we have to hold it for a while now that we've planted the crop to see if it grows...

     

    Or should I say "glows"? LOL.
    21 Jan 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    UURAF: for a contrarian view, I recommend paying for Kaiser's service (kaiser@bottomfisf.com) before investing in it. I have found him to be very knowledgeable and helpful. It isn't a substitute for the real time, diverse views this Concentrator provides, but the underlying research it provides can be very useful.
    21 Jan 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (UURAF.PK) was a Buy yesterday, but its gains since have lifted it above my Buy@ target.
    21 Jan 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    What about UURAF at, say, 0.83?
    21 Jan 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm a buyer down in the $.70's, bukdow.

     

    Of course, I already own a chunk.
    21 Jan 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I see. I am looking for an entry point. Quite a bit of green there today. Sometimes I get anxious.
    I have some SLB money I made 47% on thats burning a hole in my pocket. 
    21 Jan 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The best buy I see in that area on my board at this minute is (URRE).

     

    Frankly, though I think you might see another buying opp for (UURAF.PK) next week. MCP's lockbox opens Tuesday, and some of the hot money bouncing around the REE space might move...
    21 Jan 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB.
    21 Jan 2011, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): If it wasn't Friday, I would call consolidation almost over, because the volume is near its nadir on a down day. But it being a Friday, I can't be sure its not just normal Friday-type trading volume.

     

    Having said that, I'm going to suggest that a change comes Monday or Tuesday. I'll keep this post shorter than normal.

     

    Although we closed below the 20 day SMA, that could be due to risk aversion causing the end of the day sell off. With a large sudden sell off at the end of the day on low volume, this often signals a bottom is in, but of course, not always.

     

    But our trend support line held, Bollingers are pinching down, we're still above our Fibonacci 50% re-trace and the stochastic is beginning to move back up towards 50, an *early* sign of *possible* move up coming. It will probably cross above its 14 day average no later than Tuesday.

     

    So, in a day or two, we should exit consolidation and establish a near-term trend.

     

    I'll bet up. But that's all it is, a bet.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    (QREDF) Moved up in the world a tad. I'm still in the Jacuzzi until Tuesday. We should see a definite trend by lunch when the impact of the spilled lock box is felt. I'm going to be watching for a down draft to add (GDLNF) and (LYSCF).
    www.prnewswire.com/new...
    21 Jan 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, the first of 3 weeks that I thought might be wild and wooly because of the MCP lockbox stuation is done. It was eerie watching Lynas (and many other REE/strat. stocks) this afternoon just sitting there, idling, doing nothing much in particular. After so much sturm und drang, it was striking. The eye of the storm...

     

    And so it ends, this week, tailing off into ...

     

    Next MONDAY...

     

    Well, yes, I yelled that one out, I think MONDAY could be one of "THOSE MONDAYS"....

     

    But anyway, that will be the DAY when some wild things could happen with MCP - if there is a short squeeze, or the opposite, panicked selling.

     

    What part could a dramatic shift in the fortunes of MCP represent to the REE Sector as a whole?

     

    To recap, the wild volatility and massive runup in values for MCP have occurred while the huge majority of all stock issued was sitting dormant in a lockbox. Look at the daily trade volume for MCP, then look at the puny number of actual, physical shares outside that lockbox...

     

    And you will realize that MCP, in few days, averages a trade for every single share of stock in the market. Every month, EVERY share trades many times (and since many of those shares are just held by longs, that means that the remaining shares trade like mad, over and over again!

     

    Too much money chasing too few shares...

     

    Maybe.

     

    And even when the lockbox creaks open (and surely at least SOME of those shares enter the mad feeding frenzy), what then?

     

    What about if the BULK of those shares flood out into a market accustomed to trading the same few million available shares multiple times every day? Will MCP crash, drop $10 per share? More?

     

    Maybe, though I doubt it, or if it DOES happen, will it happen in time to save the shorts?

     

    And what will this potential spectacle mean for the MSM and the pundits, who are already so tangled up in their own ignorance and mistakes that their REE articles read like a Monty Python script?

     

    God knows, and as I have come to realize to my lasting pain, She has quite a mean sense of humor.

     

    I am hoping that we see a big spike in prices, perhaps trailing along in the wake of a short squeeze...

     

    In which case, I will be taking profits and laying plans to buy at even better prices when the squeeze abates.

     

    If prices drop, I will just hunker down and wait, having already positioned myself outside MCP (no holdings, sold them all), REE, AVL and several others. Paper losses will be brief, imo, because just as with the paper gains which might come from any short squeeze, the fundamentals will ultimately return to the market.

     

    In general terms I am looking for the Australian miners to slowly improve as the effects of the flooding abate and the country (and their markets) begin to heal from the damage.

     

    Thanks to all who visited this week, I hope everyone has a fun weekend!
    21 Jan 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    TB you need a tall glass of ice tea and then read the tea leaves. Let us in on what you find out please. I have a buy for MCP at 39 so I am on the edge of the seat you could say.

     

    I am wondering if I should pull that order? Hmmm not yet. Lets see what monday brings.
    21 Jan 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DG old buddy, my Buy@ target for MCP has been $38 for a while now (including up through the $40's and low $50's when I finished selling out every share). As you know I have been saying for a while that MCP was overpriced...

     

    Have you looked over the futures options for MCP?
    21 Jan 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Futures options?

     

    Didn't you just mean options? Two differnt animals for the most part.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    I came to that price in my gut. I do not play with options. I probably should try to get schooled on them. I have watched some of yalls discussions on them and tried to glean some info but I have never mada a concerted effort to learn anything about them. I am sure I am missing a part of the puzzle because of that.
    24 Jan 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Been a long day... I had noticed earlier that $39 had a lot of open interest for Call Options, and he mentioned having an order in at $39.

     

    I'm still thinking over MCP and what's liable to happen with the lockbox shares...

     

    We've not heard much from MCP for a while, but then, THAT sort of news blackout is common when you are looking at lockboxes...

     

    HTL, do you have any idea how long they have to sit mum before opening the lockbox - and does the gag order extend past the lockbox expiration? There's a fast SEC rule about this, and I SHOULD remember what it is...

     

    Anyway, the insiders and original backers probably KNOW what they plan to do...

     

    And I know if I were going to be opening up a lot of new shares (which might or might NOT immediately hit the market), I'd want a plan to pump the company back up after the long silence (or the actual hit caused by big investors cashing out)...

     

    This is just blue sky bs, what follows next:

     

    MCP prices tank Monday, low enough to take some of the shine off the lockbox. The guys holding millions of shares from the box have to decide if they want to start dumping millions of shares into a falling market, and sell them for about $30 or so, when the market has demonstrated a strong affinity for prices between $45 and $55 if they have just a little patience...

     

    Some think they will have to sell off to pay taxes, but is it logical to think this factor (which might be a key factor if this were December instead of January) will force these sophisticated investors to panic sell?

     

    Its quite a puzzle.

     

    One thing that DOES occur to me is IF the insiders and original backers DO dump and run, effects on the market be damned, it would speak volumes about their own view of their own company and its plans!

     

    Now, extending the fantasizing...

     

    Lets imagine that the day of the expiration, when the shares pop out, the rules DO allow MCP to start talking up their plans again. How would it play if they immediately unveil M&A plans to purchase Great Western. Plans to crank up their own mine PLUS the Steenkampkraal Mine in South Afrika. Along with new exploration and drilling programs on the outlying deposits at Mountain Pass which have never been fully explored or mapped...

     

    Things could get wild in a hurry.
    21 Jan 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    I'll have to research. But wife returns this weekend, so I doubt I'll get much done. But if I do get some time, I'm on it.

     

    Another thought: think of the calls in light of what we've discussed and seen in (NVAX). I don't *know* if a similar situation could be in play, but one of the possible scenarios I described for NVAX seems to have played out. The nice thing is we have at least a month before it might come into play since this options expiration week is now officially over.

     

    Anyway, the rub of the nub: if calls open interest is *huge (and I've not looked and the other computer is turned off now), the options market makers may not have been able to substantially cover as they go along? Depending on the perceived risk from this inability to maintain "market neutral" positions, they might institute a buying frenzy when the lock box is opened.

     

    I'll look at that as best I can (remember, incomplete information always a bugaboo) and see what I can contribute to your deliberations.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jan 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    A wild thought occurred to me, too.
    Maybe the Molycorp management, now that it has some capital to play with so long as it stays intact after the lockup phase, is thinking along the lines of trying to acquire the private U.S. Rare Earths, Inc., usrareearths.com. That would be cheaper than trying to buy out Great Western, I would guess.
    If so, they would be interested in USRE's heavy rare earth deposit in the Bitteroot Mountains on the Idaho-Montana border. I'm wondering if a private corporation would actually have the money to develop that deposit into an independent mine given current capital requirements. That deposit is associated with thorium. The thorium could be shipped down the highway to store at the Idaho National Laboratory run by the U.S. Department of Energy.
    It sure would be interesting to follow Molycorp's maneuvers whatever they may be.
    21 Jan 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would expect them to go for what they need first to jump start their company - Great Western's AMP facility, and their fabricating facility. Those are unique assets, and exist nowhere else outside of China, much less within easy transportation range of Mountain Pass.

     

    And Steekampkraal is a world class HREE deposit, though not a huge one. And it is an existing mine with most of its infrastructure intact, including the bulk of the regulatory paperwork and studies.

     

    Time is of the essence...

     

    GWM also owns a variety of other REE assets, which were originally chosen to run the gamut of the rare earths. Those are located in North America.

     

    I would expect MCP to focus on developing those before shopping further, at least for the next several years.

     

    GWM is also cheap, about $220m market cap, though I suspect something closer to $450m would be needed to seal the deal. Still, well within MCP's power, PARTICULARLY if they get subsidized loan guarantees in the RESTART bill (assuming Congress gets it passsed soon). If nothing else, I would expect any such future financing to pour directly into updating MCP's Mountain Pass mine and processing facility, and (if the GWM deal comes to pass) doing the same for at least their American HREE deposits.

     

    This is also where a joint effort with the Canadian government (which GWM has close ties to) comes into play...

     

    Speaking of thorium, the Steenkampkraal Mine is famous for its thorium/REE mix, and includes a large supply of thorium stored in concrete blocks from the last time the mine was producing.
    21 Jan 2011, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    I had read that Molycorp might have been interested in acquiring Great Western from a year or so ago by reading some blogs. I had vaguely wondered why that didn't happen since it seems logical to do so on the face on it. It must have something to do with politics, I guess. Or maybe it has something to do with the fact that Great Western's responsibilities are now so far flung that it might hinder their vertical integration efforts somewhat. Or maybe they were only interested in a possible joint venture about the Deep Sands project with Great Western.
    It seems that Molycorp is very interested in the political situation. It almost sounds like they might scoop up some private firms in order to forestall too much competition from developing in the future.
    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    Oh, well, it seems all we can do is invest some money and wait and see.
    22 Jan 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL, there is considerable open interest for MCP's Call Options for February 18, particularly in the money at $39.00 (2780). It runs strong from there all the way to $85.00 (1525), with a peak at $55 and $60.

     

    Take a look and see what you think.

     

    Puts are also showing lots of interest.

     

    Part of me is hoping that the lockbox folks elect to work the options rather than dump their stock.
    21 Jan 2011, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    look for a Tungsten stock or 2. Tight supplies and China shut in.

     

    Malaga and North American Tungsten/
    22 Jan 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agreed, Freya. We include (NATUF.PK) regularly here, and (EMMCF.PK) as well (One of the frequent participants brought EMC to our attention).

     

    Malaga (MLGAF.PK) I believe just took off I see, up over 14% yesterday. I'll keep an eye on that one, too!
    22 Jan 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some links that a reader mentioned to me recently (hat tip to Renderus):

     

    www.energy.gov/news/do...
    23 Jan 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 2nd link to DOE doc: www.energy.gov/news/do...
    23 Jan 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    Let us hope that the powers that be are serious.
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    23 Jan 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting take. Speaking as a Libertarian (full disclosure, I am a paleo-libertarian), I don't see anything wrong with the US government not elbowing into these events. Of course, I also view US regulatory and tax policy (FairTax fan am I) as a primary problem...

     

    What SHOULD happen is that aggressive American companies operating in a pro-business regulatory environment (and no, that's not code-speak for "no environmental rules", I like clean air and clean water at least as much as the next guy), with competitive advantages go into those markets and kick government butt (and, as is often the case with these sectors, government frontmen pretending to be corporations).

     

    So I share in the author's alarm, but from a different perspective.

     

    I present as much data and stock tracking as I can here, but I suppose I need to make it clear that, though I recognize the market and political realities - such as regards governmetn subsidies such as those contained in legislation like RESTART - my including them in my thoughts and calculations is just recognizing reality, not approving of them in some moral or ethical dimension.

     

    China's REE Cartel tightly controlled by their heavy-handed central government, and in turn a totalitarian creature controlled by the ruling Communist Party oligarchy, is NOT the sort of arrangement my Libertarian soul can tolerate or see applied to how America operates.

     

    Now, I believe we SHOULD backup our commercial enterprises, particularly where strategic defense matters attach (and this is one of those cases), at the highest government levels...

     

    But only AFTER we fix our government's insane infrastructure, and those steps are demonstrated to be necessary.
    23 Jan 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    That seems about right to me. I'm sure it is going to be a slow, painful process.
    23 Jan 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And now some video: csis.org/multimedia/vi...
    23 Jan 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10770) | Send Message
     
    Trip: What I garnered from that video is that dyprosium has the highest future and ongoing supply risk.

     

    More importantly for us REE fans is that the percentage current cost of REEs use in things made remains low, and henceforth, even if the costs double, triple, or more, those REEs will still be purchased. That's good news for REE miners, especially the HREEs.

     

    BTW, if anyone else wants to watch this video, skoip to minute 9; all the stuff before that is powderpuff.
    24 Jan 2011, 05:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, and precisely the points I was hoping folks would notice. There is a lot of anti-REE agitprop out there, that might SOUND logical unless the investor had the facts and understood the situation...

     

    And even then the data (perhaps as it should be, given the source) is backward-looking and largely zero-sum thinking. This is a very conservative viewpoint that is being presented in these links.
    24 Jan 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2674) | Send Message
     
    MLGAF just announced that they expect positive earnings this year and are ramping Up output as well. They are a very low cost producer because of their ability to use hydroelectric power and logistical location.

     

    on NATUF, they started production in October. They were

     

    "Shovel Ready" :)
    23 Jan 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Many thanks for the (NATUF.PK) tip back when, Dear Dragon Lady!

     

    (MLGAF) is one I have had on my back page tracking since the days I was losing money on lithium miners...

     

    And its ALWAYS good news with a penny goes positive earnings, imo.
    23 Jan 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.malaga.ca/malaga/e...

     

    Link for Malaga (MLGAF.PK). Looks like a keeper to me...
    23 Jan 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Closing numbers from the ASX.

     

    LYC (LYSCF): +0.01 to 1.98
    NTU (NOURF): -0.045 to 0.53
    ALK (ALKEF): -0.02 to 1.12

     

    If UURAF and GWMGF tick down, I am adding them today.
    24 Jan 2011, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't forget that the MCP lockbox pops open tomorrow. This adds a degree of short term uncertainty to the entire sector.
    24 Jan 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Ah, TB, the voice of reason. Sometimes I shoot first and ask questions later.
    24 Jan 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Because of the number of strike prices and months caused by the extreme price ranges seen since IPO, I've not been able to finish analysis of the potential effects of the options market on MCP.

     

    But some simpler data points generated suggest to me that the big moves in terms of "bear traps", if any, may come later, not in conjunction with the lockup expiration. And I don't see a "bear trap" scenario in here.

     

    P/E 230.2
    Outstanding shares: 82.3MM
    Float: 69.5MM
    Institutional ownership: 75.99%
    Short (% of float) 12/131/10: 10.71%
    Calculated short vol: 7.44MM shares.

     

    Overall Put/call ratio 1/21/11: 1.15 - a *very* bearish bias

     

    Est. short via puts: 6,560,600 (I don't know qty. since sht rpt yet)
    Est. long from calls: 5,706,100
    10 day avg. trades vol (1/21/11): 5.428MM

     

    My reasoning is as follows.

     

    Institutional investors will be biased to take profits and are likely the majority of the owners of puts. Options market makers are likely the majority of the short puts. Of course, there are also some individual investors mixed in on either side, but with ~76% institutional ownership and those being rather astute in these matters, it is unlikely that they bought a lot of puts in error.

     

    Further, they need not dispose of their shares to profit. If they believe in the longer-term story and want to hold the shares, they can profit from selling the puts they bought when the underlying price drops. And the same for the calls if the price moves up, although they'd be more likely to exercise the calls if they believe in the long-term story.

     

    So, that's one reason I don't see a "bear trap". If long put positions are closed out, the short side does not need to cover.

     

    At the same time it's hard to know precisely how bad the imbalance in put/call really is as various strategies - spreads, collars, straddles, ... - may be in play distorting the ratios. The only certain thing is that the options market makers are exempt from "naked short" restrictions and they will likely have to cover at some point, providing a lot of buying pressure. But, it's not concentrated in a single point in time.

     

    Open Interest:
    Mth Yr Calls ..Puts.. P/C Ratio
    Feb 11 29.6K 33.5K. 1.13
    Mar 11 16.1K 19K.... 1.18
    Jun 11 8.96K 7.98K 0.89 Least bearish
    Jan 12 1,701 3,274. 1.92 Low volume, can't rely on it
    Jan 13 714... 1,874. 2.26 Ditto

     

    Keep in mind that the folks exempt from "naked short" restrictions also have a *very* long time allowed to complete delivery under SEC rules. So buying pressure can be spread of many weeks. Further, they really only need to cover the puts that are likely to be *not* exercised (out of the money). This may also reduce buying pressure and its concentration.

     

    On the call side, the market makers really only need to cover their shorts on strikes likely to be in the money. When price was elevated recently, they could have covered then but being able to see both sides of the put/call equation (i.e. short and long side of both puts and calls), they likely waited and let price fall and then began covering. This helped support an elevated price until they decided enough was done, at which time they stopped covering and price continued dropping. They can then repeat, locking in their profits at each step and moving more and more to a "market neutral" position.

     

    The end result is that there should be little buying pressure from the options market makers at the time the options expiration weeks come around.

     

    I've a lot more work to do to *attempt* to predict future activities. It will take a while. But I can tell you that the majority of the puts exist around the $40 and $50 strikes (~11K at those two strikes, Feb, Mar, Jun), with 24,679 at lower strikes, 19,809 between those strikes and 10,090 at higher strikes.

     

    The calls center around the $50, $55, $60 range (same months) with 11,509 calls above those prices and 26,881 below that range.

     

    Comparing that to current price ranges, you can make an interim assessment of the likely market maker actions at various price points and time frames.

     

    Until I have time to finish a more detailed look, I can't really form a judgment about time frames and likely actions by market makers that may affect price action.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » UPDATE: Looks like the exchange halted trading in (MCP) at 9:49 this morning ($41.80).
    24 Jan 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Know why?
    24 Jan 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Briefing.com says news pending.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Trading resumed now.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Molycorp Announces Approval of Phase 2 Expansion at Mountain Pass, a Proposed Mandatory Convertible Preferred Offering by the Company and Proposed Secondary Offering of Common Stock

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): from the press release:

     

    "... expected to double the production capacity of its Mountain Pass facility in California".

     

    "... ability to produce at an annual rate of up to approximately 40,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide (REO) equivalent per year at its Mountain Pass facility by the end of 2013. This expansion represents an approximate doubling of the original Phase 1 production capacity at an estimated capital cost of approximately $250 million, in addition to the costs for the Phase 1 plan. The Company believes that it will realize substantial savings by committing to this expansion now while construction activities are underway for its Phase 1 initial modernization and expansion plan".

     

    "The principal selling stockholders are affiliates of Resource Capital Funds, Pegasus Capital Advisors, L.P., and The Traxys Group, which are the three main investors that led the purchase of the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Facility in 2008. These selling stockholders will remain substantial investors in Molycorp immediately after the offering".

     

    Which may explain the extreme bearish sentiment in the options I noted in an earlier post. Institutions had to be working on this a while.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » [quote] Molycorp expects to use the net proceeds from the proposed mandatory convertible preferred stock offering to fund its Phase 1 and Phase 2 plans.

     

    The proposed secondary offering will help facilitate the liquidity objectives of the selling stockholders via an orderly underwritten offering and will provide additional public float with respect to the Company's common stock. The principal selling stockholders are affiliates of Resource Capital Funds, Pegasus Capital Advisors, L.P., and The Traxys Group, which are the three main investors that led the purchase of the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Facility in 2008. These selling stockholders will remain substantial investors in Molycorp immediately after the offering. [quote]

     

    ...Need to noodle out that new SEC filing, which should have the numbers of shares involved, but it would appear that we now see where a big chunk of the lockbox shares are going to go... Additional dilution looks to be included, but it all depends on the schedule and just how much...

     

    Stock price ticked up over $42 when it cut back in at 10:37am, now at $43 and rising...

     

    It would appear that the shorts are going to be very sad after all...

     

    News about upgrading their processing plant says 3 things:

     

    1. They aren't waiting on the government to start cranking up the volume - 40,000 tons by the end of 2012 will leave a mark...

     

    2. Obviously, the open pit mine is going to go live very shortly...

     

    3. More exploration and development of outlying portions of the claim are coming (some of those old 1980 drill cores hinted at lots of goodies just beyond the current pit)...
    24 Jan 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Reuters has some early data about the preferred offering:

     

    www.reuters.com/articl...

     

    Lockbox guys are selling $500m, which is just a fraction of their holdings, a very measured response, and the method protects the company's valuation and the small investors...

     

    Those that saw the dumping $2billion in stock today will be disappointed...
    24 Jan 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REE sector is seeing some hot money sloshing from one place to others...

     

    Australian REE sector is down overall, Lynas down moderately, Greenland spiking back to $1, etc...

     

    Hot money leaving...

     

    MCP recovering, now over $44...

     

    TIme to buckle down and study this situation...
    24 Jan 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Low volume day, looks like it's seen its low, at least until the last hour of trading. Right now, bid/ask imbalance makes it look like $1.95 may *eventually* get exhausted and we'd see a move to $1.96, maybe $1.97 if we're lucky.

     

    It's still looking very much like consolidation is in the wrap-up phase and a move will come in the next day or two. As expected, technical indicators don't give a strong clue as to direction yet.

     

    But, momentum is trying to work back to neutral from down and MFI is trying to indicate an upturn.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Just pr about how much of Rareco they've acquired so far. And they say they're happy about it too.

     

    "GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP ACQUIRES 70.2% OF RARECO SHARES TO DATE"

     

    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Well, I got into UURAF at 0.83 and GWMGF at 0.80. I realize there will be better entry points, but these didn't seem awful. Besides, I really do believe in the long-term value in the REE sector.
    24 Jan 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the update, HTL. As soon as all the shorts getting slaughtered over on the MCP boards finish doing their hair shirt "I haven't covered (yet)" whining, we should not be surprised to see them pop up elsewhere (if only briefly).

     

    Lynas is showing the downside to its leadership position on the ASX100 Index - which has taken a strong hit from the flooding. What's impressive is that it has shown strength when many of its peers on the index dropped like a rock. I expect this to become noticed by the Australian mining investors as time goes on.

     

    Meanwhile MCP is sucking up all the oxygen here. Will we see $50 for MCP? Maybe. I would also expect a likely reaction as more details flow from the secondary offering / dilution plans. That's still a lot of shares, though the relief of the longs that the lockbox guys did it smart (and the development plans which make sense and are a shot in the arm for all longs) is lifting prices right now.

     

    I still view MCP as over-priced, so I'll be sitting it out for at least another few days.

     

    (REE) is down now for the day, while (AVL) was up about 6%, but its fading, now up just over 2%.

     

    Reviewing my target list, there are several intersections there, which I will just have to look at more thoroughly...

     

    OK, some action:

     

    Added (NOURF.PK) and (EMMCF.PK).
    24 Jan 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • Engineer Broker
    , contributor
    Comments (62) | Send Message
     
    I use E*trade and performed a test at ~10AM this morning and could not sell short as they had no shares. I have read about other brokerages also having this issue. When people are trying to determine how heavy the short interest was, I'm guessing that it was extremely high as a percentage of the non-lockbox shares. Now that there will not be alot of stock dumping and the short interest is so high we should see a short squeeze of record proportions. Also, mid Feb is three months after the last earnings release and soon we should start seeing people perform new earning projections. Once this happens alot of small investors will start chasing the stock.
    24 Jan 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (PMNHF): Pele Mountain Announces Major Increase in Indicated Resources at its Eco Ridge Mine Uranium & Rare Earth Elements Project

     

    Indicated U3O8 Resources Up 138-Percent to 15.2-Million Pounds;
    Inferred U3O8 Resources at 31.4-Million Pounds

     

    "We have retained Scott Wilson RPA to provide an updated Preliminary Assessment (“PA”) which is expected in the second quarter of 2011. The PA will feature a detailed economic model based on combined revenues from uranium oxide (“U3O8”) and rare earth oxides (“REO”) and will include mining, processing, and waste management design enhancements achieved since the initial 2007 Scoping Study. The PA will also include a schedule of activities to advance the project through the feasibility and licensing stages"

     

    PDF: www.pelemountain.com/n...

     

    But pps down 3.12%? Why, I wonder.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Speculation ahead of this report was pretty wild, and led to quite a runup in the stock price. If you look back on my target list and comments of this stock, I am still looking for a cheaper place to add (I have a core holding I bought a good while back).
    24 Jan 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » UPDATE: I continue to buy my list, on the dips, for the foreseeable future:

     

    (LYSDY.PK), full boat, but might add more if they tempt me again in the low $1.80's - Now has turned around and is in the green once again. Probably not for good, given the continuing situation, but I am long this one....

     

    (HUDRF.PK), full boat, and it would have to drop a good bit to get me interested, Buy@ $1.23

     

    (GDLNF.PK), full boat, would have to go below $1 to be tempting... Dipped today to $.98. Now at $1.02... ALMOST tempting...

     

    (QREDF.PK), core position, Buy@ $.41 (updated target upwards slightly)

     

    (UURAF.PK), Buy@ $.82 - added 1000 shares at $.72 - Now trading at $.90, those that added recently should smile right now...

     

    URRE), Buy @ current prices

     

    (ARAFF.PK), don't own any, looking to enter cheap Buy @ $1.16

     

    (MCP), don't own any, looking to re-enter after craziness is over OR if it drops below $38, which would be unexpected short term

     

    (AVL), sold out at a nice profit, looking to re-enter much cheaper, no Buy@ determined yet

     

    (MTCEF.PK), Buy @ $.52

     

    (ALKEF.PK), Buy @ current prices, but high fees putting me off - no ADR I know of

     

    (NOURF.PK), Buy @ current prices, Added today, core position full

     

    (GWMGF.PK), Full boat, but will add more Buy@ $.70 - note big jump in Target!

     

    (NATUF.PK), Full boat, but could be tempted Buy@ $.41

     

    (PMNHF.PK), Core position, waiting for retracement to reach Buy@ of $.43 to add more

     

    (RBY), Buy @ $4.80

     

    (GMO), Buy @ $5.55

     

    (TIE), Buy@ $16.65

     

    (EMMCF.PK), Buy @ $.39

     

    (STZYF.PK), Buy @ $1.86

     

    (CHGI.OB), Core position, Buy@ $2.00
    24 Jan 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Current PPS now back in trend support, should hold until near EOD anyway.

     

    Still needs to clear 20 day SMA, $2.01. Tomorrow ~ $2.02, then ~$2.03, ...

     

    Ought to do that within a few days.

     

    If it behaves they way it normally does on a move up, expect a gap up open to get things started.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MCP) now trading north of $46 and accelerating. Blood is running down the gutters from shorts, while they grind their teeth and vow vengeance...

     

    I agree with them to some extent, the stock does look pricey to me as well...
    24 Jan 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    TB, this may make you happy, justification for your negative feeling about REE, the company.

     

    www.foreignpolicy.com/...
    24 Jan 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, the same author did a shorter version here on SA. Its a sad story, really, and his personal experience with the sector is a cautionary tale which needs to be understood by all. Note that he started out long, then got disillusioned, went short, and got nailed. I feel his pain, but its another reason NOT to do options and play on margin unless you can afford the freight!

     

    Part of the due diligence required BEFORE investing must include looking into the insiders and their backgrounds. (REE) is the prime example, as well it should be. I constantly see stout defense from investors for their personal favorites which gloss over the facts.

     

    This is one reason I do the charting as I do, segregating the companies which have actual mines from those that do not - the companies with vertically intergrated facilities from those that have none - the companies with PLANS to do this and that, and those with real world construction projects actually building something - and the companies with money flowing into capital investments vs those that don't.

     

    Its perfectly logical to invest in an exploratory junior miner so long as you know what it IS. Doing so in the mistaken belief that they have an actual mine (rather than a long string of arcane geology reports from drill cores and trench samples) is a bad thing. Sometimes I post up to one of the goofier articles just out of concern for the poor guys obviously trying to make sense of a situation where the author is just not getting the job done. I get down thumbies from the shysters fronting for the boiler room gangs, but that's fine by me.

     

    Note his commentary about the history of the claims of his featured example, (REE). He is correct, and all that data is (and was) available if one does some digging BEFORE you make the leap.

     

    Until recently I was unaware that (MLLOF.PK) was part of that group's activities, but as soon as I tracked down the threads (which were there all along, though I had missed them at first), I sold out of that junior miner. Frankly, I still expect that Dr. Bird's ideas about choosing easily accessed deposits near infrastructure, rails and roads that can be quickly developed with a simple and shallow pit mining technique makes a lot of sense, and it might be funny if a major mining company eventually DOES buy up those claims from them. Taken as a very long term affair, they might get lucky just because MCP was looking "large", whereas the future might be "small and easy to get to".
    24 Jan 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Promised SEC paperwork has not appeared just yet for MCP. I will post up a link when and if I see it...

     

    LOL, funny reading the short/vs/long commentary on Yahoo. Those are just about the nuttiest boards in existance, but some foks on there are not fools...

     

    But stocks like MCP attract both extremes, and when they meet in the middle...

     

    Boom.

     

    LOL, the definitions of "dilution" given that we are talking about shares that have just been sitting there (for all to see) since day one of the IPO is pretty precious!

     

    Me, I see where there will be dilution as they create preferred stock (where none existed before), though we are also looking at another 90 day lockbox arrangement here... And we have no details yet as to price, warrants, or swaps for common stock, etc...

     

    So the beat goes on!
    24 Jan 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    DOE released a critical materials strategy document on 12/15/10.

     

    blog.energy.gov/blog/2...

     

    Summary PDF www.energy.gov/news/do...

     

    Full report PDF (171 pages) www.energy.gov/critica...

     

    There's a whole bunch of related stuff returned by a search on "material strategy" at the home site www.energy.gov/

     

    Below is the search results.

     

    search.doe.gov/search?...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Admittedly, compared to many on this board I am a neophyte. However, there is just something about MCP that smells fishy to me.
    24 Jan 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    The lockup situation and the mine expansion announcement seem to be a bit coincidental. It is interesting to follow their maneuvers about growing the business.
    24 Jan 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I consider (MCP) to be a rock solid buy at $30, and a good speculatory investment for trading purposes at $38 (hence my current Buy@ target). Anyone interested can track this stock via my older comment stream, I have been a buyer and a seller as the stock progressed since its IPO. I sold off even my core holding (something I rarely do) when it hit the $50's recently, and traded out of my trading stock mosly in the $40's.

     

    Much will change AFTER they actually start revamping their processing plant and re-open their main open pit mine. Until then there will always be the haunting doubt that maybe it just won't happen...

     

    Lynas (LYSCF.PK) or (LYSDY.PK) the ADR is another fish entirely. It has construction in an advanced state at Mount Weld, and an aggressive construction program at its future LAMP in Malaysia. This is a case of reality trumps the unreal doubt.

     

    Great Western's state-of-the-art AMP is an accomplished fact, not a muddy hole in southeast asia, and its facilities to create and fabricate exotic REE alloys is unmatched outside of China. It cannot be dismissed as a boiler room operation operating out of a file drawer in Alberta. I would not be surprised at all to see customers (which might include many of the miners we talk about here) shipping REE oxide concentrates to GWM for processing, even BEFORE they get their own facilities in gear (if they ever do). If there will be an REE bubble early on, it is likely that it will be caused by too many REE miners rather than too many high tech processing lines, advanced materials plants, or sophisticated alloy refineries and fabrication facilities which can handle the most exotic and even radioactive or toxic alloys.
    24 Jan 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): progressing a bit faster than I would have anticipated, given TB's comments. Hit $1.98 already and just saw a block trade of 79.5K shares go off @ $1.98.

     

    Current bid/ask says we should hit resistance @ $1.99, but just got another 15,371 @ $1.99. Most trades, and all the larger trades, have been going at the ask, so we can't count on $1.99 being the top today. OTOH, dollar boundaries often present a point of pause.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I didn't mean to throw cold water on them, but to imply that when the investors in Australia notice that THIS particular miner on the ASX100 didn't take a black swan dive with the rest, it would be a good thing...

     

    I still don't think that has happened just yet (otherwise, it would be trading in the $2.02 range or better), but I'm thinking it will gather steam quickly once it makes that turn.

     

    The huge bulk of Lynas trades occur in Australia, so unlike some pink sheets (where the american trades exceed their home exchange volume), Lynas is not so prone to the "American" effect. We are not without influence, but our efforts are weak compared to what they do over there.

     

    Australia is NOT used to the situation yet. Their economy trucked right through the recession as if it never happened, and just went from strength to strength, buoyed by unalloyed good commodity export news. The hit they took with the floods took their economy from a healthy level of growth to an instant recession level. Investors over there took huge losses (though not in Lynas), and their markets are still reeling. This backdrop affects all the stocks on the ASX100 (just as similar disasters here generally affect the DOW).

     

    But just as we see when investors start to figure things out, the money that was shocked into defensive mode will creep out of the pigeonholes and congregate around the stocks which proved resistance to the shock.

     

    In the past we saw this happen with health care and certain brand name consumer stocks...

     

    LOL, though that is a trend that has certainly changed!

     

    For the Aussies, the potential investors for Lynas will be those driven out of coal, iron, agriculture and shipping stocks.
    24 Jan 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, regarding MMLOF, I'm aware that Bird used to be at REE and that MMLOF has optioned one of its properties from REE. Are there any other "threads" that I should be concerned about?
    24 Jan 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Major insider/stock holder in both companies is the same Asian lady (forget her name off hand). The links to (REE) do it for me.
    24 Jan 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    24 Jan 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Do you mean Winnie Wong, the secretary ?!
    Or is there another Asian/Chinese Lady involved ?
    24 Jan 2011, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    It looks like it might be a good time to add GDLNF... the stock is trading at ~$1.00.
    24 Jan 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (GDLNF): from a *technical* *trade* (not investing) perspective, now is not good.

     

    Price dropping since 1/13 on *increasing* volume says the drop is not necessarily over yet. Gap open down (looks like a break away gap) with all the indicators I follow showing continued weakness.

     

    Opened below, and trading below, 50 day SMA.

     

    Stochastic recently entered oversold but is still trending down well below its 14 day average.

     

    It is sitting just atop a potential support point, so it could reverse, but I would wait for confirmation on that.

     

    There's a gap that needs filling at $0.85-$0.87 from Fri. 12/10/10 and Mon. 12/13/10 that could provide some support. 12/13 had decent volume, so support might show strength there.

     

    100 day SMA might offer support ($0.84 and moving up ~1/2 penny/day).

     

    Below that is $0.81 and $0.78, but none show a lot of volume strength around them. So $0.73 might be seen.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Trying to break a support long-trend started 10/12/10 with a touch point 12/10/10 and is currently below that level (today $0.997).Just above a shorter-term trend support begun 10/29/10 and touching 11/16-11/17 (currently ~$0.97).
    24 Jan 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To amplify my comment earlier about it looking interesting "under $1.00", that's my personal short hand for "...I'm not going to buy any until it gets under $1, and haven't set a concrete target thus far".

     

    Greenland is one of the long shots in the REE sector, mainly because of their history trying to convince the new Greenland government to allow Uranium mining. Their REE deposit is actually a secondary mix to the primary product, Uranium, which would be fine (given that Uranium is skyrocketing in price right now) EXCEPT for the Green Party influence which is very powerful in the Scandinavian countries. They equate Uranium mining with carpetbombing countries with nukes, so the prejudice is entrenched and politically explosive.

     

    I bought this stock when it was a LOT cheaper, and have held it since, and traded in and out as it fluctuated between .70 and $1.20. Right now I am holding just my original core, having sold out my trading stock at a juicy profit when it spiked.

     

    If I DID buy at just under $1 (high $.90's), it would be with the idea of resuming that trade cycle, which MIGHT crank back up if the mining investors back home in Australia crawl out of their bomb shelters and get back into the markets.

     

    GDLNF is, like many junior exploration companies, selling the stuff of future dreams. News can make a big difference in their valuation (either promising political news about permits to mine for Uranium, or test results from their ongoing drill program which is still quite young)... But keep in mind the news could also be bad, particularly the politcal situation with the Uranium ban.

     

    This one is a very risky stock, make no mistake about it.
    24 Jan 2011, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, TB. Although I like GDLNF's story much better than MCP's there is way too much tribal/socialist naiveté surrounding it. I apologize for any undo politicization.
    24 Jan 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    With TB, you don't have to worry about that. He knows that politicization is a major factor. And he is quite astute at keeping up with such issues!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP IS fishy at these prices, and the wierd IPO/lockbox situation looks that way too when you first encounter it (though it is common with IPO's like this, and probably the only way to AVOID some real deviousness).

     

    I really like the REE investment right now. Obviously. But there's a sweet spot for pricing with everything. As we move forward with the process, and the sector matures, the gap between "good buys" and "too pricey" (much less any of the outright fish stories) will become critical to making money on trades.

     

    Its going to be a sector in flux for a long time, and like all boom town stories, will have its share of heroes and villains.

     

    MCP is neither, just yet, though those of us who bought early and sold recently have big smiles of course. I'm at heart a homie for American companies, particularly stories like this one with SUCH a strong geopolitical backdrop. I am looking forward to the day when I can buy MCP stock and hold it for the long term...
    24 Jan 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Speaking of Lynas trading over $2.02 again...
    24 Jan 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    ?? The highest I show is $2.01. Bid/ask right now $2.00/$2.01.

     

    Was that calculated off the (LYSDY)? You had mentioned minor variations in the ratio had been seen.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, you get the bullseye with that guess, HTL. I mainly track LYSDY nowadays, and it got over $20.20 for a while.
    24 Jan 2011, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Blood in the streets? But whose?

     

    Lots of Feb. options action today, which *should* translate into trades. ~8,600 calls should result in lots of market maker buys and ~13K puts which should result in lots of short sales by market makers.

     

    These are trades, not open interest. Unless we analyze the resulting open interest, it's hard to determine exactly what is going on.

     

    Similar patterns, but much lower volumes of course, in the other near months.

     

    As a consequence, and considering my prior post about options interest in this insta, it's hard to say if it's really blood or just colored water.

     

    Question to which I don't know the answer: if options were exercised last Friday, do the resulting trades show up today? If so, what we're seeing over and above the *normal* volume + options today may be the result of that.

     

    Maybe someday I'll find out about that too. Perseverance has its rewards, as well as punishments.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In this case I'm referring to the frantic wailing coming from the Short crowd on the Yahoo boards.
    24 Jan 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    Ah! I try and avoid that place, based on what I've seen.

     

    I do admit to following their CPST board because amongst all useless yammering, name calling, ... there are a few serious folks that both possess an operational brain cell or two and take the time to post something quite useful. But the filtering to catch those is atrocious.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jan 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, sorry to be a pest about MMLOF, but it is a fairly large holding for me. Kaiser has pretty detailed information on officer/director/other identified party stock holdings. Comparing his lists for the two companies doesn't show any common stock ownership. There are two geologists in common, but they own zero shares. The CFO of REE is also an accountant at MMLOF, but with no stock in MMLOF. No other identified party is on both lists. It sounds as if you have different infformation. Could you point me toward it?
    Thanks.
    24 Jan 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MLLOF is one of 11 (maybe more, I've seen much larger lists from time to time, though I believe only 11 are still "active" companies, that's the most recent number I've seen) companies that all operate out of the same 500 square foot office:

     

    "According to the company, Brown spends 75% of his time working for it, but he also serves as director, CFO, or CEO for 10 other companies. Rare Element's chief executive, Donald Ranta, is also a busy man, serving on a number of boards. Both he and Brown are directors of Animas Resources and Avrupa Minerals. Oh, and those companies also share Rare Element's office space."

     

    Recent Barron's article.

     

    As I hope I pointed out, I consider the links to (REE) sufficient (and the other companies this same crew run) for me to sell the stock. Junior explorers frequently have small staffs and modest corporate digs, but this sort of crowded condition signals me to move on.
    24 Jan 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, sorry, I exaggerated - they share a 420 squre foot office.

     

    The asian lady is the Secretary (of REE, I think, though she is the CFO of several others, its hard to keep track). Winnie Wong. Here's a quote from "The Street Sweeper", who are really down on (REE) and the management group involved:

     

    "We found it curious that Rare Elements shares its listed address (325 Howe St., #410, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6C 1Z7) with at least six other businesses: Pacific Opportunity Capital, run by Chairman and CEO Donald Ranta, CFO Mark T. Brown and Secretary Winnie Wong; Animas Resources (ANI.V); Tenant Payment Systems; Avrupa Minerals (AVU.V), formerly known as Everclear Capital; Cordova Industries; and Sutter Gold Mining (SGM.V).

     

    Our concern was already elevated, given the commingled nature of the office address, but nothing could have prepared us for the shock of seeing management's bios and history. Most management teams we talk to are consumed with running one company. We believe it is a significant red flag that critical members of Rare Element's management team are engaged with more than five companies currently.

     

    It is our understanding that Rare Element Secretary Winnie Wong and CFO Mark T. Brown are principals of something called Pacific Opportunity Capital, which shares office space with the company. Brown's bio in the 20-F lists 18 companies where he is the current or former CFO or director. Almost all of these companies are Canadian-traded penny stocks. A simple Google news search reveals that Mark T. Brown has issued press releases for at least three other companies in the past two weeks, including Pitchstone Exploration, Avrupa Minerals and Tarsis.

     

    Chairman and CEO Donald E. Ranta was previously with Greenstone Resources, a mining play that is currently trading in penny territory. Ranta is also on the board of Avrupa Minerals, along with Brown and Wong.

     

    Wong was (until recently) also the secretary of Portal Resources (PDO.V), an oil and gas penny stock. She is also the CFO of Avrupa Minerals, currently trading in the 40-cent range in Canada. In addition, she is the corporate secretary of Apoquindo Minerals and the CFO of Animus Resources (ANI.V), another penny stock trading in the 40-cent range. She has served as the president of Deal Capital and the CFO of Fox Resources and Mediterranean Minerals as well."

     

    I'm really not trying to run anyone down, not even this crew and their extremely active little file cabinet, er, "office".

     

    There are a lot of companies working very diligently in the REE space which are NOT related to these folks (at least, so far as I know so far), and I have chosen to focus on those that seem to have a shot to accomplish something.
    24 Jan 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I found the article, and some other similar ones. However, out of all the lists of companies at that address, I have not seen Medallion listed. I understand all of the reservations about REE, but I still haven't seen any ties between the two companies and/or their ownership other than the publically disclosed JV. I'm not trying to be an ostrich; I just want to find out the facts, whatever they turn out to be.
    24 Jan 2011, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Other than the JV claims they share/Medallion properties sources from (REE), the management personnel they have in common that I know about are:

     

    CEO Bird (currently also serving on Advisory Board, REE)
    Mark T. Brown, CA (CFO of REE, serving on Medallioon Advisory Board)
    Tony Mariano (Advisory Board, both companies)

     

    Of course, to find all the links one would have to check back over all the connections, which might be extensive. These are quite active individuals. Mr. Brown for instance has an astounding list of corporate titles and board memberships, most of them still current:

     

    Miramar Mining Corporation
    Stockscape.com Tech.
    Sprott Resource Lending Corp.
    Target Exploration & Mining Corp.
    Lund Gold Ltd.
    Eldorado Gold Corp.
    Medallion Resources Ltd.
    Garibaldi Resources Corp.
    International Bethlehem Mining Corp.
    Strategem Capital Corp.
    Spartacus Capital Inc.
    White Tiger Mining Corp.
    Mediterranean Resources Ltd.
    Barker Minerals Ltd.
    Portal Resources, Ltd.
    Globemin Resources, Inc.
    Crosshair Exploration & Mining Corp.
    G4G Resources Ltd.
    Roca Mines Inc.
    University Of British Columbia
    Almaden Minerals Ltd.
    Rare Element Resources Ltd.
    Gateway Enterprises Ltd.
    Sutter Gold Mining Inc.
    Inform Resources Corp
    Tatmar Ventures Inc.
    Pitchstone Exploration Ltd.
    Pacific Opportunity Capital Ltd.
    Rockhaven Resources Ltd., Prior To Merger With Strategic Metals Ltd., Mineral Properties in Yukon
    Tarsis Capital Corp.
    Deal Capital Ltd.
    Animas Resources Ltd.
    Rye Patch Gold Corp.
    Tarsis Resources Ltd.
    Fortune Valley Resources Inc.
    Rockhaven Resources Ltd.
    Avrupa Minerals Ltd

     

    Anyone with a few months spare time could start with this list. Tony Mariano has a slightly shorter list.
    25 Jan 2011, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1002) | Send Message
     
    Just discovered your blog. I've been playing (limited bux) with REEs for nearly a month. As of the end of today, I'm up a measly 2.3%, but am glad to see things in Oz are up tonight. My Greenland Mineral is hurting me the most, but it's up 6¢ downunder at the moment. I see complaining about pink sheets purchases costing extra -- ETrade just charges $9.99.

     

    Lynas, Alkane, Arafura, Great Western, Neo Material and Greenland Minerals are what I follow.
    24 Jan 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, addendum to above comment on MLLOF. I went to Street Sweeper and it shows they reprinted the article from Shareholder Watchdog, who ran the article in SA uner the heading "A Short Opportunity". Doesn't mean he isn't right about REE, but as far as I can determine neither he nor Street Sweeper has ever run an article that mentions Medallon.
    24 Jan 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): ASX this A.M - Bleh! Still.

     

    But here, a different story yesterday, and maybe today.

     

    As mentioned before, it looks like consolidation is starting to wrap up. Yesterday finished up just a penny below the 20 day SMA ($2.019) @ $2.01. And it was the high for the day and it was on increasing volume. The bear sentiment did cause it to break below the support @ ~$1.95, down to $1.93, but that was over and done with @ 10:55 and it just kept stepping up throughout the rest of the day until $2.00/$2.01, where it finally stalled.

     

    This is expected whenever you hit these dollar boundaries and volume is low. Yes, it was improved from prior day, but still low. Further, the prior two days saw highs of $2.02, so we can expect resistance as folks get uncertain as these prices are approached again.

     

    Bollingers are pinching, momentum is flipped trying to go positive (back up to .935 at yesterday's close, from .855), RSI improved to 55.2+, accumulation coming back up, MFI back up to 43+ at close, OBV trying to move up and stochastic crossed above its average, now back up to 42.4+.

     

    None of these is really strong yet, but the signs are there. The question is, are we at a top? Three days in a row stalled at $2.02/$2.01. But don't let me get all pessimistic on you - this is typical of consolidation end-points, which I've been thinking we were at.

     

    With price solidly back above lower trend support (~$1,95 yesterday?), increasing volume on price move up (which was *not* the case the prior two days - volume was trending down, just like we want to see near the end of consolidation) and a couple of the earlier indicators beginning to show signs of life on a higher plane ... :-))

     

    I suspect today we break above the $2.02 and have a higher low. This would give us the start of the up move with higher highs and higher lows.

     

    It's too early to see any bid/ask data, so I can't confirm that likelihood yet, but I'll post back a couple time before open as data begins to become available.

     

    If we do move up, don't forget a gap up open has been common on the start of up moves. Since we closed only a penny below that resistance, I think the gap is "probable".

     

    If we do break out today, our middle tend line comes into consideration. Today, it's ~$2.14/$2.15. That should act as resistance for at least a brief while. I don't *expect* we'd hit that today, but a day or two is certainly reasonable. After that, gap resistance @ ~$2,18 - ~$2.23/$2.24, and then upper trend resistance @ ~$2.28. Each trend line is sloped up ~$0.01/day, roughly, so you can predict a few days out if you think the trend lines are in play.

     

    With Mt. Weld nearing on-line next month, this might start a strong move towards the high of $2.39 and beyond.

     

    Nothing like unbridled optimism as a trading strategy, eh?

     

    Here's the ASX stuff from last evening. Essentially just a flat continuation of the recent action, down another penny on the close.

     

    Last 1.970
    $+/- -0.010
    Bid 1.965
    Offer 1.970
    Open 1.995
    High 2.050
    Low 1.965
    Volume 30.61MM

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2011, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    So, is MCP's proposed doubling of their production the death knell for junior miners like this guy thinks?

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    25 Jan 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No. For one thing, producing twice as much of the same thing, while you still lack others, just means that you have more of an impact in a narrower market. When we talk about "REEs", its not just the ones that Mountain Pass has in plenty, but a dozen others that they lack. This data-hash is something which will slowly start to settle.

     

    When we talk about precious metal miners, we take pains to identify the ones that feature gold, those that go after silver, and those that mine for paladium/lplatinum group. With the piss-poor job done by the media on the REE Sector, we don't see individual minerals split out as we should. This is due to the long list and complex science involved.

     

    MolyCorp might or might not succeed in doubling their plant capacity, but they WILL produce to fit the market demand brought to them by their customers. This is what a few CEO's have mentioned in interviews, that as the various key players in the sector bring their mines on line (or back on line, as in the case of the 4 front-runners, MCP, GWM, LYSCF and STZYF), the prices for the REEs common to them might go down. And this in turn may have a chilling effect on the pace at which the laggards in the field find they can crank up their own efforts. This is why I and many others on this series on instablogs have called this a "race".

     

    Even so, the benchmark for pricing now (and very likely to remain the benchmark in the future) is whatever the Chinese publish. Now, the aftermarket which charges a lot more as the export quotas start to pinch... That's a different kettle of fish. But so long as smart businessmen use the Chinese prices as the basis for their planning, the numbers have some solidity. Those who use whatever wild number comes out of a distressed squeeze situation are just planning for failure.

     

    Lynas takes pains to maintain a basket price for their projected production. There are investors who see this number, sniff in disdain, and look elsewhere to other explorers quoting much higher numbers based upon tons of the more exotic heavy elements in the ground. This is a yellow brick road I would caution against taking at face value. The $80 per kilo valuations from a Lynas are conservative numbers which are likely to slowly go up over time, whereas those touting huge prices per ounce for exquisitely priced high purity exotic alloy metals (extrapolated from a drilling sample program sans mine, sans infrastructure, sans access, sans processing plant, sans everything) should be properly taken with the proverbial grain of salt and viewed with only the longest term lens.

     

    There are other numbers that need to be worked out other than just the value per ounce of a rare earth metal.

     

    How big is the world market for that metal? Sometimes scarcity is the REASON for the high value. Increase the supply, and the high price instantly crumbles. This is less likely to happen if there is a healthy, widespread market driving demand. If the entire demand comes from a few researchers needing half an ounce twice a year, it MIGHT be a problem.

     

    Another question is whether those tiny percentages laughed at for the big miners moving megatonnes (like MCP and Lynas are planning) of the lighter elements. 1 percent of the most valuable elements mixed in with a bunch of rock gravel means you are going to lose your butt mining it. 1 percent mixed in with a rich deposit of more common but highly sought after light REEs means you are getting that 1 percent as a byproduct - essentially free, just as lead, copper and zinc miners frequently create a valuable byproduct called gold or silver.

     

    Finally is the crucial question, 1 percent of WHAT? 1 percent of 40,000 metric tonnes might be a lot. 400 tonnes (1 percent of MCP's goal) of rare earth metal is a lot. Depending on the mix, it is MORE than the current world market for some of the more pricey HREEs.

     

    These cautionary notes are VERY appropriate. Not all the small HREE juniors will be purchased by big miners that need their unique mix. In fact, I am thinking only a few will be takeover candidates over the next few years.

     

    What about the others?

     

    They will remain junior explorers for a very long time. Many will languish in price, far below current speculation.

     

    Keep a long term view wherever you can, is my advice.
    25 Jan 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PS: The other problem calling for the death of REE miners when a few bigs crank up is the fact that many of these REE deposits are coupled with rich deposits of other minerals.

     

    Greenland Minerals (GDLNF.PK) is really a Uranium mine with a mixture of rich REE content. And Uranium is a big, stable, growing market with prices that have shot up even more than speculative REE prices. The many REE plays that are also Uranium plays thus have a built-in hedge.

     

    Lynas is a Niobium/titanium/tantalum mine (2nd richest niobium deposit on earth) with a REE mine thrown in. As an investment, Lynas has a bright future regardless what happens long term to REEs.

     

    Junior REE explorers lacking infrastructure OR other mineral deposits are the ones at risk, regardless how many of the so-called HREEs they have in their mix. For these deposits, we could be seeing the reverse of a 100 yard dash, but a marathon, waiting for eventual world demand to catch up with the high overhead and narrowly focused mineral mix they offer. These might be excellent investments, but with a 10-20 year maturity instead of the daily passion play investors are engaging in today.
    25 Jan 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): No gap open today. In fact, looks like a conservative lower open as some folks want to take profit @ $1.98.

     

    We'll just have to wait and see if we get one more day of consolidation or we make a directional move today. Move has to happen soon as the lower support (~$1.97) is getting within a few pennies of the three day top of $2.02.

     

    But we did get a pre-market trade just now @ $2.0042 - certainly a nice round number, on 4,866 shares, another round number. ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pre-market is the hunting field of the hft's. I sometimes think the computers use that time (which would feel like eons to AI quant computer algorithms) to play games. Someday someone will plot these minutes before the humans wake up, and discover a picasso quant splashing pixels around for a dozen other ai quant admirers.
    25 Jan 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    "Lynas is a Niobium/titanium/tantalum mine (2nd richest niobium deposit on earth) with a REE mine thrown in. As an investment, Lynas has a bright future regardless what happens long term to REEs."

     

    I thought Lynas Corp recently stated that it needed outside help inorder to even consider exploiting its niobium resource? That was kind of a disappointing to hear, but hopefully Lynas can still profit.
    25 Jan 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutely true. Just as they needed outside investment to crank up Mount Weld and their LAMP in Malaysia. About 3 years ago, they had to try to guess which way to jump, and went with the REE narrative (just like most of us have). As they mature and generate free capital, I would anticipate them tapping the other minerals.

     

    Fact is, they probably HAVE to do this, since the REE ore might well generate byproduction in these other metals.

     

    My point is that, when talking about life of mine or even life of market demand (assuming some day we figure out how to do all these things involving abbrasives, catalysts and magnets with nothing more exotic than plain mud), Lynas will be a viable company mining its other assets.
    25 Jan 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10521) | Send Message
     
    We are at the magic date when the (MCP) lock box is spilled. I have a program on for (LYSCF) @ $1.85 and will be watching (GDLNF) and (QREDF) closely for the 11:00- 12:00 time frame low.
    25 Jan 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5057) | Send Message
     
    Look here! (AKS is currently operating at a loss, and just announced their dividend. Have you heard of "GOES" before? Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel - GOES
    agmetalminer.com/2011/.../it’s-not-a-rare-earth...
    25 Jan 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    OG, Never heard of GOES before. I learned something today.

     

    Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel (GOES) is processed under carefully controlled conditions to develop optimum magnetic characteristics in the rolling direction. GOES develops low core losses at high inductions when used as core material in designs with the flux path parallel to the rolling direction. These low losses at high inductions are attained with low exciting currents because of the excellent high induction permeability of GOES.

     

    Taken from this site.

     

    www.alleghenytechnolog...
    25 Jan 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1418) | Send Message
     
    OG or anyone else. GDXJ shows a dividend of 8% on the chart. Which does not seem to be the case according to the prospectus and articles. Does anyone know the origin of that?
    25 Jan 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18515) | Send Message
     
    My ETrade shows similar - 8.84627% currently.

     

    No idea if that's true or not.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Jan 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13565) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Please go to the new Concentrator!

     

    ******************
    25 Jan 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8828) | Send Message
     
    Juniors dont usually have dividends so that is probably a payout from the etf as div vice cap gains on sales of stocks that appreciated.
    25 Jan 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
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