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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 31, 2011 218 comments
    Jan 31, 2011 10:39 AM | about stocks: IQ, REMX, AVL, URRE, DNN

    Lots of charting and long-winded article coming...

    In the meantime, this should help with site-lags from the old Concentrator.

    Stocks: IQ, REMX, AVL, URRE, DNN
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.bloomberg.com/news...

     

    Germany is talking seriously to Kazakhstan about joing REE projects. This is their long term plan, and I believe a good one. I am thinking that Kazakhstan has a mothballed Soviet facility or two that used to yield Uranium and, like Stans Energy in Kyrgyzstan.
    31 Jan 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Albeit the waters are a little choppy at present, I believe this sector (rare earths) will have a very large upside for the courageous. Just a little inane, "rah rah".
    31 Jan 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    O.G Posted this right at the end of the prior concentrator.

     

    Lynas phone conference will be Wed 2/9. If you go their website and click on investor relations, they posted updates as of 12/31/10.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, I was just bringing a copy here. Thanks HTL. That should be QUITE a conference call. Can't wait to hear when they are cranking up the processing line.
    31 Jan 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Good to buy LYSCF prior to 2/9, I'll wager. Also, maybe even better to buy NOURF before 2/9.
    31 Jan 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    what is the official name date change...thought it was feb. 2??
    31 Jan 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    are you guys mostly playing northern u as a short-term bump back...or looking on specific future expectations?
    31 Jan 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As I said earlier, I am accumulating NOURF long term. I see them maturing in a couple years at the soonest, assuming some bigger fish does not snap them up.
    31 Jan 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    LYNAS (LYSDY)
    The ore concentrator is still scheduled for completion in February. They have hired their staff and are stockpiling ore. One of the things that impress me about Lynas is their management. They have the vision thing, but they also have what it takes to turn their visions into reality, on schedule.

     

    Is there any information on what is happening to the short positions on Lynas?
    31 Jan 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was thinking the same thing this morning. I should have some data on their short situation soon...
    31 Jan 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Nasdaq offers no short information on them. Shortsqueeze.com says only 27.4K short on (LYSDY), prior was 89.2K. So shorts are bailing. Days to cover 0.2.

     

    On (LYSCF), 14.63MM, prior 14.30MM, so no significant change. Days to cover 4.3.

     

    I don't know their source @ Shortsqueeze.com and I'm too cheap to pay for whatever goodies they hide now.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmmm, no options, warrants or CFD's listed for them on the ASX.

     

    This is the PDF Lynas just put up this morning:

     

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...
    31 Jan 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That 14.6m share number sounds about right, given the sitrep.
    31 Jan 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...): Big/ask presented imbalance is large buy.

     

    Most trades going at ask, but most large trades going at bid.

     

    Hard to say what follows ... OOPS! Balance just achieved. OOPS, buy imbalance achieved again - quite large.

     

    I *was* about to say I think we've seen the low at least until EOD, when we might have a sell off.

     

    I hereby retract that unpublished thought! ;-))

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Again applying Freya's thought, pretty large volume so far with little price movement.
    31 Jan 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Great Western gets some more press at
    newsblaze.com/story/20...
    31 Jan 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I saw that this morning and got a little bump...had a % sell a bit higher and it didn't reach. a bit suprised...general uncertainty/anxiety around i suppose holding back a bit. I'm mostly long anyway, but would like to put away a bit of profit
    31 Jan 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    I keep reading/hearing about (GWMGF) going to AMEX in Feb. Can somebody explain what would happen if that happens? How would that affect the stock value? and what do you think would happen to the initial vol of trading activity?
    31 Jan 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1726) | Send Message
     
    I'm just passing through the Concentrator on my way to a meeting in another town so will be mercifully brief. Two big things happen with a listing:
    (1) Institutions that are proscribed by charter from buying OTC can now add a newly-listed issue to their portfolios. Since they had none before there is little or no selling from that quarter. More buyers, less sellers often = price rise, at least initially.
    (2) You can now use trailing stops to protect against the untoward day when you aren't glued to your monitor. That's why I bought much GMO for clients back in the 3.20 - 3.80 range. I only got a rough double from GMO; there may have been more attractive buys OTC like GWMGF or LYSDY but I need to be able to control a large number of securities on MY choice of auto-pilot course heading rather than try to react to news as/after it occurs...
    31 Jan 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    This is why I like NOURF, www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    31 Jan 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): OK. Trading stabilized @ big buy imbalance on bid/ask $1.77/$1.78 & most all trades going @ $1.78 and being also the larger trades.

     

    Holding my nose and doubling @ $1.78.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think you will be very happy you did, HTL. I added a little LYSDY too, despite the boat being full.

     

    Also doubled down on NOURF, though the double was against only 3000 shares. I consider the resulting 6000 shares my core long term position for this stock.

     

    Also added some REMX, just to cover the bases.

     

    Still studying Pele Mountain, but will probably wait another day on that one.
    31 Jan 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Also added LYSDY today at 1.78.
    31 Jan 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Quantum (QREDF) has finished acquiring Silver Mountain.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    31 Jan 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting that their stock price did not budge.
    31 Jan 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    It would seem that it was already baked in as the initial prop was in April 2010. As stated last week IMHO they are at resistance at this level pending new developments. I am thinking of adding some but I'm holding off to observe the trend line a while longer.
    31 Jan 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Interesting. While bid shown was $1.77/$1.78, 10K were sold @ $1.79, the high for the day.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    you guys are killing me with the nourf talk. I'm sold...but got no ammo! ...full tilt in lyscf and gwmgf
    31 Jan 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): based on bid/ask and trade activity, there's a decent possibility of seeing $1.80. Of course, I just jinxed it!

     

    If we do see it, we have a "hammer" a possible bullish indicator that *needs* confirmation.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Good call, HT. You nailed it.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    I'm the proud owner of 2000 shares of NOURF @ 54¢. Lots of activity in the stock today. I wonder if it's because of these discussions.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    SA could probably tell us by how many hits we get.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I bought 12960 shares at 0.53 today.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    H.T. ....mind me asking if you own NOURF?
    31 Jan 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Not yet. Keeping either dry powder or making sure I stay in more liquid issues right now.

     

    Plus, being on the learning side, what I've learned for myself is I'm most comfortable and productive when I've had some time to get familiar with the company and how the stock behaves. So I tend to move less quickly on new issues, if I judge correctly, than many others in the group.

     

    I hope that changes over time.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Since this isn't an official "published article", I don't believe they will tell us.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Maybe if we ask? After all, we've been doing this for a while and I'm struck by the fact that they haven't (apparently) considered adding "message boards" to their repertoire.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I usually monitor a stock (along with extensive due diligence) for a good while before taking the plunge. Sometimes i will miss a buying opp. because of this, but that's OK. Note that only recently did I buy any Northern U, despite my reading up on the REE sector extensively for about 2 years, and despite my taking note where Lynas bought a nice chunk.

     

    Frankly I am as interested in some of these stocks as Uranium plays as anything.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Why add some thing we are already doing with no action required on their part?
    31 Jan 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hit count would include "views", every visitor to the site that looks at this blog. My experience from other sites is that this could be hundreds of times larger than the number of actual comments.

     

    Popular topics can attract hundreds of thousands of hits, though they might only have 100 posts to the thread.
    31 Jan 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Customer service? It takes a fair amount of attention to do these things if we try and keep the list of stocks mentioned, etc.

     

    A true message board format *possibly* would give us:
    - true threading, collapsible and all,
    - a decent spell checker instead of this junk we've got now,
    - no need to "close" one QC and start another to avoid slow response
    - automatic search ability on keywords and possible automatic building of lists stocks and subjects mentioned,
    - etc.

     

    I'm not saying we would get that, but it could be done.

     

    I'm assuming since O.G. needed a break (not just for medical reasons?) and L98 (Oooh! I like that - may I call you that Lower98th?) also needed a break, I'm guessing that my take on the benefits might be shared by others.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    Yes, please call me 98. like 13 on House.

     

    OG asked for volunteers to do the maintenence a month at a time. If needed, I'll give it another go.

     

    I think Triple is up next. But with REE blog going as well....?
    1 Feb 2011, 08:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    TB stepped up and offered to take it a couple times now also. But I recall that this is the time he starts prepping for his shows. O.G. also offered to hop on it again.

     

    Since I've got a "method" going that keeps the load relatively low, and since I owe so much to so many, I said I'd be glad to keep on it for a while.

     

    Of course, if anyone is chomping at the bit, I'll step back.

     

    My biggest failing, I think, is I don't have a lot of new stuff to put at the top - a distinct step down from what had occurred in the past. So if someone's got a bunch of ideas for topics to lead off each new QC with, I think it would be an advantage to the group if such a person did jump on it.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    anyone doing any up-to-date charting analysis for gwmgf after the last few days of settling...any opinions?
    31 Jan 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Great Western (GWMGF)is lining up new customers. You couldn't tell from activity though.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    31 Jan 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    what I am seeking is a new lower support level, probable upper resistance, and anticipated average to jump off of and sell and get back in at (my terminology). seeking a new trading range. I missed a sell a few days back and still have my feelings hurt from it...need to bank a little and then get back in for the long ride
    31 Jan 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is actually a good place (sitting at $.90 resistance) for (GWMGF.PK). After it becomes clear that they can easily carry this sort of price (most of the REE sector is very green, and quick spikes tend to get flattened out equally quickly, so a measure of caution is indeed warranted). It's time for them to start attracting customers (like the news put forward for us by robert), and building value. A slow upward curve between news events would be excellent. The $1.00 level is a clear demarkation that has psychological ramifications, and we can expect to see rounds of profit taking every time it is approached, but when the approach is more gradual and measured, breaching it will be much more likely to occur - and more important, to stick.

     

    We are also approaching territory where M&A (as several participants like Jimp, ellwodo and other sagacious investors have pointed out) would make a 100% markup for acquisition attractive to Engdahl and the other major players.
    1 Feb 2011, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Congrats on the #1 slot. In addition to the slow move up which does spark profit taking we want to keep in mind that as those profits are booked there are less left on the table. While old money house money will stay and new money with less profit margin enters. This results in less profit available to take until the next leg up. I think we will be seeing this going forward with higher lows and higher highs until and unless the reverse split occurs. That event is the wild card.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. Right now they are paying for daily operations via "dilution on the installment plan". They could elect to make a MAJOR purchase with that credit card at any time, though I believe they are seeking a white knight to either acquire them, merge with them, or lay some serious money on the line for a joint venture.

     

    The reverse split (etc) plan is their solo backup, and not the preferred situation as I see it.

     

    Part of what is keeping their stock price in check around $.90 is the dilution threat.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB...can you explain your last paragraph there...the 100% markup?? and possible effects on average investor in mostly long
    1 Feb 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A general rule of thumb is that anytime you own a takeover target in a healthy market situation you might get a big bonus over the current stock price. In a situation like this one, I would expect any buyout bid to be pretty strong, ie, 100% premium over the last trade of the day. This would mean that GWM would price at $1.80 if it ended trading that day at $.90, etc.

     

    I am thinking though that GWM's recent analyst price target of $2.25 is the benchmark to shoot for, short term. And if GWM is still a maiden when they reach that sort of price per share...

     

    It starts to get interesting.
    1 Feb 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    1.80 on the ask board...
    31 Jan 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): $1.80! Doesn't look to hold, ... yet.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    as you stated previously...aside from the early a.m. much larger buy orders throughout the day
    31 Jan 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Last three trades brought us back to $1.78 close. No hammer, but we have a "doji".

     

    This says a possible change is coming, but is a non-directional indicator.

     

    50 day SMA held, +1.

     

    Volume lower than yesterday, +1.

     

    Had good buying interest today in this price range, +1.

     

    My take: won't be long before we start a move up.

     

    Hm, I think I've had that feeling before. :-((

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I still think we are road kill waiting for Citibank to finish backing over us again and again and again...

     

    Once we are flat enough to suit them (and the trend seems to indicate that) we have a chance for things to resume something like a normal trend.

     

    The news of the huge cyclone (pacific ocean version hurricane) drawing a bead on the hard-hit flood region today isn't going to pep up the ASX very much, mind you, and did us no favors today.

     

    Lynas IS an Australian stock, and an important one. It is one of the top 100 Australian stocks tracked on the ASX100 index. When Australia takes a major hit (and the flood and the last several cyclones are major hits), their largest index suffers as well.

     

    We have a little while until Lynas has their conference call (note the information posted by OG earlier, which HTL was kind enough to repost into this blog, and which PDF I also posted to make sure everyone had the info).

     

    IF the call is as enlightening and positive as it should be, particularly as regards the Mount Weld processor line's startup...

     

    That is an obvious positive for this stock.
    31 Jan 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    "note the information posted by OG earlier, which HTL was kind enough to repost into this blog, and which PDF I also posted to make sure everyone had the info"

     

    Being an old IT guy, I can't resist: did you put a copy in off-site secure vault storage? ;-))

     

    As to Lynas, here's my thinking. Folks looking to Lynas, or any REE, who are serious about this "game", know the "rules" and what Citi is doing.

     

    So, small retail investors that haven't been through the wringer yet will be suckered.

     

    Guys like us (me only?) see Mt. Weld, strategic issues (admittedly *only* due the generosity of folks like you in sharing) ... as medium and long-term winners and view Citi's action as a favor done for us.

     

    I can be wrong of course.

     

    But that's how I'm thinking of it and, unlike my (GWMGF) forays, I'm intent on building a position at reasonable cost and not being entirely out for a long time.

     

    I think I'm there right now and don't intend to trade in and out until some catalyst or chart indicator comes after some substantial new upside is seen. Then I'll take profits only on part of the position.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    TB I have a cookbook for that. Just not sure there is renegade stew in the road kill book on my insta. LOL
    1 Feb 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was using an "us" referring to our affinity for Lynas (particularly those new entrants bruised by an abrupt downdraft for no apparent reason)...

     

    As a native Southerner, I of course understand the intricacies of road kill cuisine. In particular, there is the necessity to properly "age" the meat. Hot southern asphalt is the best, though I have seen black tar Louisiana style add a certain piquant spice...

     

    LOL, I just hope that this predation doesn't move from an event to a long term cycle such as occurred with Silver and JPM.
    1 Feb 2011, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    As far as the ageing part goes I believe a few of us have already been properly aged and would be ready for immediate inclusion into any said stew. LOL

     

    It is amazing how manipulated, through various means, the different markets can be. C works it through lies and deception (User had a better term) and the metals get worked over through margin requirements. All the tools of the thieves have and still are being used to effect the markets in the "proper" direction as percieved by "da boyz" and powers that be. QE by the fed is the ultimate weapon. The nuke if you will of financial manipulation.
    1 Feb 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    doubleguns: Greetings. I like the analogy. QE and occult HFT are indeed the ultimate weapons of financial mass destruction. Since the incestuous relationship between Wall ST and Capitol Hill has placed them in the position that neither can gainsay the other with out mutual assured destruction. The entire situation has created a MAD world!
    1 Feb 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I won't even be considering taking profits from Lynas until Mounta Weld is up and running and we see something north of $3 per share, more like $4 or $5.
    31 Jan 2011, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    I'll buy into that! ... Literally!

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Hell, once Lynas is up and running in Q3 2011, they will be the only non-Chinese REE producer. Then what, MCP? I'll believe it when I see it. All the other juniors are 2012-2013, if I am not mistaken. Therefore, it seems to me that hanging onto Lynas until 2013 and even maybe 2014 would not be a bad idea. Right now is just a bunch of jostling and positioning, like horses going to the gate. Once that baby drops, I see Lynas going like Secretariat at Belmont.
    31 Jan 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Working with the low end of Lynas' numbers of 20,000 metric tons production from Mount Weld per year, and their most recent basket estimate of market price for their REEs of about $80 per kilo, its possible to estimate their gross sales. 20000 metric tons is 20000000 kilograms of concentrate x $80, or $1.6billion. I have also seen higher production estimates with a lower range of about 25kmt.

     

    If we assume a fair price for the company would be 13 times $1.6billion, or $20.9billion, we come up with a share price somewhere around $13 each for the 1.6billion shares.

     

    I am thinking we might have to settle for a lot less than 13 times earnings, though, perhaps as little as half that... After all, new sectors like the REEs tend to get no respect from pundits and xperts...

     

    $6.50 per share.

     

    And that assumes a zero sum and static situation, and no particular special demand for REEs beyond what can be serviced with China exports operating at 65% levels...
    31 Jan 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP will be able to produce some concentrates (just as they are doing now) from their old facility, but their mine is still mothballed - and their new processor is just a drawing on a piece of paper (with most of the details still to be ironed out, much less built). MCP MIGHT be able to start initial production toward their 40kmt promise sometime in 2012 at the earliest. Their "mine to magnet" plan will also reuire either the purchase (GWM) or construction of an AMP, which will take another year at the very least. So figure MCP will be a factor in so far as refined metals by 2013 sometime.

     

    By then, Lynas will have been in production about 2 years.

     

    Much of the market is for concentrates, however, not metals, so its a sliding time scale involved.

     

    If the Lynas proprietory tech. processing plant performs as it should, however, Lynas will be producing higher quality concentrates at lower cost than the competition. The last I read on the topic estimated their cost per kilo for concentrated oxides would be $7, or less than 10% of the current charge-out price. Anytime you have that much potential gross profit, you have pricing power (which affects the scenario).
    31 Jan 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    You guys were having quite a talk story on Lynas and Nourf. I spent much of the morning watching Lynas stuck below $1.81 around $1.78 today. and Nourf sitting in the lap of $.54 with only 10k vol trading.
    1 Feb 2011, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Was curious why you guys prefer NOURF over Matamec? They are basically the same share price. Plus Matamec is considered an advance rare earth project per TMR Jack Lifton co- site.

     

    "TMR Advanced Rare-Earth Projects Index consists of rare-earth projects currently underway around the world, which have been either:

     

    formally defined as a mineral resource or reserve under the guidelines of a relevant scheme such as NI 43-101 or the JORC Code, or subject to past mining campaigns, and for which reliable historical data is available, even if not formally compliant with a relevant scheme."
    www.techmetalsresearch.../

     

    I see NOURF is not on the list.
    31 Jan 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am holding far more MTCEF than NOURF. With me its not a question of either or...

     

    And as I said, I like NOURF as a U play more than an REE play.

     

    My tungsten and uranium plays are outrunning my REE stocks at this point.
    31 Jan 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    TB knows a lot more about this than I, but I too like the fact that rare earths are something that just landed on NOURF's plate. They have a very solid position in uranium and a nice arrangement with Areva regarding said uranium. They also have a strong corporate/economic outlook.

     

    However, back to the rare earth aspect, they have excellent prospects in Browns Range and have taken on Dudley Kingsnorth to help develop their REE sector. Also, I like Lynas' involvement in the company. In that same vein, Conglin Yue now owns a 17% share.

     

    To me, an admitted green-horn, these things convince me of the company's value. Not saying Metamac won't excel, too. I hope it does. I have just chosen to put my eggs in the NOURF basket.
    31 Jan 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some of the "REE" companies we track and invest in were once "Uranium miners". Quest (QSURD) was one such.

     

    I don't mention this often, since this IS primarily an REE blog, but I consider Uranium a key Strategic mineral play. I own URRE, DNN, UURAF, GDLNF, and NOURF as Uranium plays. The fact that some of them also have an REE dimension just makes it sweeter.
    31 Jan 2011, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    T.B. Do you have a favorite rare earth/uranium combo long ( a diversified mining co) with at least some emphasis on uranium...like Northern but other than them? And, are you guys (other than Buc and a few others) buying on the otc pinks with NOURF? Thanks for allowing me the redundancy...clarifica... necessary for me on just about every thing at this point. The portfolio is picking up nicely, though.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    "The portfolio is picking up nicely, though"

     

    That's what we live to hear - that as we've tried to help each other out, we see you succeed.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would have to say that my favorite REE/U penny play is (UURAF.PK). (QSURD.PK) is a good choice for a company with a really strong set of numbers in the ground, and with a long history as both a Uranium junior and now in REE's. I believe (UURAF.PK) would work better as a quick trade, whereas (QSURD.PK) is a long term bet. Both would have to be considered high risk.

     

    For a pure Uranium play I like (URRE), particularly if you can buy on a dip such as we recently saw. (DNN) is the class of the field in many ways, but they have been on a tear and got a downgrade writeup yesterday (just because their price has increased so much, including over 10% yesterday). Watch (DNN) for an opportunity to get in for the long term. For a wild high odds gamble, I like (GDLNF.PK).

     

    Each has something unique to recommend them, depending on your personal taste. Right now I own DNN as a Hold - UURAF I am accumulating to build up some trading stock, buying on the dips, selling on the peaks - QSURD I am out of but watching for a buying opp. - NOURF I am done with for now, with enough core holding to satisfy me barring more news, its a long term hold for me.

     

    IF I had to pick just one, I would go with DNN long.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (Lyscf), (Lysdy): Glitch for us?

     

    From the PDF here www.lynascorp.com/cont...

     

    I see "The first call will be held on Wednesday 9 February at 1800hrs (Sydney time)." And it can't be accessed via web of "mobile phones".

     

    Then, "The second call will be held on Thursday 10 February at 0930hrs (Sydney time)". It will have a simultaneous webcast, and archived and available for twelve months, also not accessible from a "mobile phone".

     

    Do we lose some advantage by not listening to the first call? If so, any thoughts what and why they chose to have two calls?

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Quarterly report already available here (PDF).

     

    www.lynascorp.com/cont...

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): If it just me or is there a small risk of insufficient cash to complete to RFSU (Ready For Start Up). ISTM that there is a certain need for "subject to successfully finalising current funding arrangements for Phase 2 with Sojitz, Lynas expects to receive US$250 million in a combined debt and equity funding package from JOGMEC/Sojitz by 31 March 2011. These funds will be used to fund the Phase 2 expansion to 22,000t REO, which is expected to be in production by the end of Q3 2012" to actually get done and done on time.

     

    Other than that, it *appears* that cash flow might be a tad tight if *any* unplanned events eat substantially into the contingency funds.

     

    Based on pages 11-12 of the quarterly report.

     

    Any thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They are definitely not swimming in capital like MCP. Those numbers are in line with plans and expectations, but there is not a bunch of surplus left over to operate from.

     

    There are other contracts with other customers that come into play after the Sojitz money.

     

    The Hitachi deal with MCP is very similar.

     

    My feel is that they will have sufficient capital to get rolling. At those production levels, they will be generating over $130million per month, with about $100million free cash flow.

     

    Such is the nature of major startups from scratch.
    31 Jan 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Thanks!

     

    Having kept up with the news, I had that feeling. But with new storms heading their way and who knows what else, I just wondered how likely a disruption of plans might be due to shortage of capital.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Jan 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I just logged on today. Quite a ways above there was an analysis of Lynas that calculated a revenue estimate of $1.6 billion and then used a 13 to 1 "earnings" ratio to get a share price of $13, and then took half of that. I agree with discounting by at least 50% in case the current $80 basket price doesn't hold once production kicks in. However, that still gives you a revenue ratio, not an earnings ratio. I don't know what Lynas' net income projections are, but only some fraction of its revenue is going to turn into net income. It is the net income per share that gets multiplied by 13 (or 6.5 or whatever), not its revenue per share.
    31 Jan 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutely true. I figured slicing the bs number in half might approximate reality overall. Since we don't have a net earnings amount to work from (if Lynas has published that, I've not seen it, and of course it would be bad practice for them to disseminate such loose numbers even if they did have then buried in their plans)...

     

    Though with the $7/kilo cost of production figure that has been mentioned, it might be possible to back into something more detailed. A more detailed bs number, at that. LOL, my tendency if I were trying to be more scientific would be to just knock 10% (padding their $7 a bit) off the gross revenue number to arrive at an extremely rough estimate of earnings.

     

    Looking at the PEs of some other miners might be interesting, to get some idea of what sort of ratios are out there... (TIE) is about the same market cap, and has a skyhigh PE of over 54... I see some gold miners falling closer to the 13:1, but more us in the 20's.

     

    Its obvious that PE ratios are just one factor to consider, but also that there is no fast rule operating. Some companies are getting along with very high PE's, while others are in the 13's, and the rest fall somewhere in between.

     

    13:1 seems a good conservative number, even though it might well be true that a higher ratio might occur if the market is really excited by the company's narrative or unique position in the sector.

     

    LOL, we could always hope for a big multiple early on, like that which the dinner napkin noodling hints would be over $10 ro $12 per share...

     

    There are too many geopolitical and market factors at work for it to remain static for any length of time. Lynas (just like MCP) has talked about doubling their production number - and their initial production will certainly ramp up, over time, to whatever develops as their actual performance. If they hit their 22kmt goal during their first 12 months of operation, that would be a home run. If they double that within another few years, that would be asking a lot.

     

    If I irritated any cost accountants in the crowd, my apologies. This is just some fantasizing about what might be achievable. Please note I'm not one of the Yahoo messageboarders who yells BUYBUYBUY, little known stock will be $100 per share in 3 weeks!!!

     

    BUT I do see it within striking range of $3 within a few months, if we get lucky at Mount Weld.

     

    After that, the big goal will be winding up the LAMP, which might see the price jump again...

     

    And what's crucial is the timing. If Lynas can keep to their aggressive schedule, they will be first to market, and that will make a difference.
    31 Jan 2011, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind that Great Western (GWMGF) also has projected doubling out put. Unlike Lynas (LYSCF) and Molly Corp. (MCP) they have taken concrete steps (Don't you love puns in the morning.) to accomplish this with a new furnace and line which should become productive this year. They are already the first to market.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    They're up in Oz. Really happy to see Lynas, Alkane, Arafura, Northern U and Galaxy Res. are all up right now downunder.
    31 Jan 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. It will be nice to see some green tomorrow (right?). Especially after some fairly substantial adds on LYSCF and NOURF today.
    31 Jan 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes indeed. And all of them are up:

     

    LYC $1.87
    NTU $.53
    ARU $1.325
    ALK $1.08
    31 Jan 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Having the advantage of having seen the cards dealt, I'll see your LYC $1.87 and raise +0.025 - it's $1.895 to ya'!
    :-))

     

    Here comes Santa Clause, here comes Santa Clause, right down Santa Clause lane ... Too soon in the year? Great Pumpkin? No, that 's October.

     

    Drat!

     

    (NTU) stayed there, $0.53. (ARU) $1.32, (ALK) $1.085.

     

    Ended up pretty good all around.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Hm, I wonder if that was Citi that move LYC up.

     

    Nah! They wouldn't do such a thing now, would they?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 05:17 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    .. Mutter mutter... grumble grumble... I hate crooks.
    1 Feb 2011, 06:00 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    HTL I think its the easter bunny bringing golden eggs.
    1 Feb 2011, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just as with the MCP Lockbox Effect, as far as Lynas is concerned ANYTHING that happens for the foreseeable future is a C manipulation ("CMan") for short.
    1 Feb 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (DNN): Cut to reduce from hold by TD.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I tend to agree, (DNN) has had quite a run, was up over 10% yesterday...

     

    I'm sitting tight, I am long that one, but those with a more short term horizon should check their position.
    1 Feb 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...): Gap up open on the way and looks to be off to the races.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. We might see $2 again today for Lynas, and this might pull GWM out of the mud and move her up a few inches too...

     

    I am expecting news from GWM soon pertaining to their plans at Steenkampkraal. They are overdue a website update with some flesh to put on that conceptual skeleton. That sort of thing might see them past the $1 barrier.
    1 Feb 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I would be tickled green to see LYSCF at $2.00 today.
    1 Feb 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Might make it, but needs to finish closing gap ($1.93) and get through Fibonacci 50% re-trace $1.93 also. Currently hit it and pulled back.

     

    Some profit taking obviously going on right now.

     

    We'll have to wait and see how much.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    you mean like days, weeks, or month soon....not w/in the day soon right??
    1 Feb 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Always hard to say on that. But as mentioned before, a gap up open has usually started a good run up. And it has usually been rapid - a few days.

     

    Volume's a little light right now, so we'll have to see if this is a typical one or not.

     

    But do keep in mind that I mentioned that prior behavior when it left it's trend (only one occurrence) it came back in trend in 9 days. If that pattern holds, 5 more days or so with an entry into trend then around $2.09, since the slope is +$0.02/day.

     

    But do keep in mind the things discussed about Citi, Mt. Weld, we finally finished a consolidation before the recent only two days down out of consolidation ...

     

    I'll iterate: *I'm* not selling into this or any near-term rally at this time. I don't care if it comes back into trend or not right away.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: any-moment, pending news or just, say sometime relatively soon(days,wekks, month etc)? Don't want sell and get caught out.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No hard evidence, just a gut feel for the cycle they are riding.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    H2O, stay in Lynas.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Yes...I've been in long there for awhile..and doubled down on it @ 1.81....it is GWMGF I've been looking to get in and out of...but afraid the next couple of moves up may leave me out...i see good things on the horizon for them
    1 Feb 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Love it all, guys. Still haven't pulled trigger on NOURF buy...know i need to soon. Can someone please explain why volume is soo low (even lower than qsurd)? Scares me even though I want to go in for the long...
    1 Feb 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    The volume is not low in Asx. People just don't know about NOURF in the States yet. It will be $1.00 by the end of the year.
    1 Feb 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Northern U is very new and small to the PK lists. Quest has been around a long time, and has been reported and pushed as both a Uranium play and an REE play over the many years. Quest has a following in the U.S. that Northern will probably never have (particularly since I suspect NOURF will eventually be acquired).

     

    Also, there is the matter of the Australian exchange fees, which are very high for those with brokerages not seated in Sydney. This holds down trading for the pennies in particular. It makes day traders ignore even the more heavily traded Australian pk stocks because paying a gigantic fee undercuts their trading strategy. Lots of less experienced investors recoil from the message they get from their broker right before they execute that mentions a $70 fee to execute... Or simply don't notice the unusual flag, make the trade, and discover at some later date that they traded through hundreds of dollars in fees - this will take the dew off the Australian flower in a hurry.

     

    Anyway, Northern U and Quest are otherwise comparable in that they both are basically Uranium plays with REE byproducts and interest. I would suggest that you review each company on their home exchange and do due dililgence research there (pink sheet data is notoriously incomplete and misleading).
    1 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    ETrade may be seated in Sydney or perhaps there's another reason, but any Aussie pink sheet trades cost me only $9.99.

     

    We sure don't want to discourage sales of NOURF or the others.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. Schwab charges the fees. It varies all over the place. But Schwab has advantages in how it treats Canadian pink sheets.

     

    There are hundreds of different brokers, and thousands of 401k administrations.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Should have also said that ETrade doesn't charge me extra for pink sheet trades with our neighbors to the north.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    So - those of you who who hold NOURF - do you hold it through the otc or asx? And is it a bad idea to buy right now on the otc..or should one pay to buy through the Asx?

     

    And thank you all so much, btw. You guys are great and hope one day I am in a position to give more than I receive!
    1 Feb 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rain, I think the same thoughts everyday, that one day I hope to be able to pay back and pass along to other small investors the gifts that kind folks here on SA have given me. This blog exists because I recognize that debt.

     

    As for how to buy Northern U, you might want to talk that over with your broker. Some folks like the currency play (the Aussie dollar has been very strong over the past few years), particularly if you think the American dollar is going to keep depreciating. Trading directly on the ASX has some advantages and disadvantages, and its something you might want to research.

     

    Whether or not you are trading inside of a tax sheltered account (401k, ira, etc) also enters into the picture, plus whatever unique rules your plan administration or broker has.

     

    For me it makes sense to buy the pink sheets, but those that years ago began accumulating assets in Aussie dollars have gains from the currency exchange rate that are hard to argue with.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I was always taught it is better to own a stock than a receipt.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I want to buy on the asx I guess then but my unfamiliarity makes me nervous. Can someone come over here and pull the trigger for me...please???
    1 Feb 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    If I pull the trigger its gonna be messy. LOL
    1 Feb 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    U.S. Senate getting on board with REE/Strat. plan.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully they will contract with our stock picks to buy vast quantitys of material to be processed at GWM.
    1 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    We should all be greatful to those Citibank crooks, allowing some of us to accumulate more Lynas on the cheap!
    1 Feb 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...): Gap will close sometime today - $1.93 near now.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Gap closed @ 11:12:58.
    1 Feb 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    To continue with the REE/ Uranium play. I noticed this Australian based company with ownership of land in Botswana.

     

    "Rare earths lining to Impact Minerals Botswana uranium play
    The Perth-based junior says drilling has shown widespread uranium and rare earth elements at its 100% owned uranium project in Botswana." The stock is currently 0.12, and is probably just getting started.
    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    1 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One to eyeball, Jimp, thanks.

     

    Seems there are lots of folks here that like the pennies, I know I do.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the Lynas Chairman must think that the company's fortunes are finally beginning to ripen enough to part with a few shares of it.
    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    1 Feb 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    He sold 7 million out of the 8 million shares he had actually paid for. He still has a lot of options. It's not exactly a rousing endorsement.
    1 Feb 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Odd time to sell in my opinion.
    1 Feb 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » He still has over 46mm shares direct and indirect, and the bulk of those sales were at prices higher than they are now. Timing might have had to do with option expiration, or could be the man just needed the money.

     

    He might also be expecting a ton more performance options as the company goes live (that would be a common expectation).

     

    All speculation, both ways, and I would agree, its not a rousing endorsement - OR a scramble for the exit, either one.

     

    Maybe someone will ask him during the conference call.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Second thought...

     

    Like a lot of us, he must have had some ideas of what would happen when MCP hit us with the LockBox Event. Clearing some profits before that asteroid ran into the REE moon might have something to do with the timing.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF) dropping to $1.81 might make a seller of you. Certainly made it a scary moment in my afternoon. Hold cautiously. Last July only 7 months ago Lynas traded for $.50
    2 Feb 2011, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last July most of the stocks now in my portfolio were a lot cheaper. And few of them are about to go live and become the sole full spectrum producer outside of China in what may become a major asset class.

     

    But I have always viewed Lynas as a high risk investment. I bought my first shares when it went for about $1, and it was a lot further from cranking up Mount Weld then, and the idea that China might use its REE control for geopolitical goals was being laughed off by the MSM at the time.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Correction on "gap open". I failed to notice the open @ $1.78, not a gap. The next minute it did gap to open that minute @ $1.89.

     

    I don't know why I missed it - apologies.

     

    However, I don't believe this will alter behavior as that open volume was on 2.6K shares and the next minute had 50.89K shares traded. S/b same effect as a gap open.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Jimp...anyone...doesn't Metamac have heavy involvement by the same lady pulling strings over at Rare Element Resources? Or is that another junior with that link? One could view that as good or bad....
    1 Feb 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (seekingalpha.com/symbo...): A sign of strength? Yes!

     

    3 exchanges "presenting" 2K of bids total @ $1.93. 6 "presenting" 3K @ $1.94. Most trades going off @ $1.94, including the larger ones.

     

    With this pps above the gap close, above the Fibonacci re-trace point but with today's volume still relatively low, I see this as possible early strength. With the early profit taking evident and this increase coming anyway, I think the move may have begun.

     

    $1.95 or higher is entirely possible when lunch is over.

     

    But I would expect some profit taking again at that level, so resistance s/b seen.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    P.S. If it goes beyond $1.95, it encounters our lower trend line, ~$1.97 and resistance should occur there as folks wonder if it will blow right by it or bounce off it.

     

    It could take a day, or a few, of bouncing off the trend before it breaks into the in-trend trading range again.

     

    This seems more likely with volume not yet being "up to snuff" for a strong rally.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): (LYSDY): I'm surprised. Watching the profit taking at $1.95, I thought the $1.94 bids would get exhausted and we'd drop back.

     

    Had some doubts when I didn't see as many sales @ $1.94 as I expected. The $1.95 sales dominated and the larger ones were mostly at that price too.

     

    I began to wonder if it might hit $1.96. "Nah!" said I to myself. That would be asking to much.

     

    Then I saw that the daily volume had come up further than I expected.

     

    Still, I did not believe.

     

    And here I sit looking at an (apparent) big sell imbalance @ $1.95/$1.96 on the bid/ask presentations, watching mostly profit taking going on.

     

    Just now dropped back to $1.94/$1.95 big (apparent) buy imbalance. I still see profit taking.

     

    I expect we'll see a pullback as we approach the close.

     

    But today has surprised me a couple times already, so who knows how we will end up.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Feb 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Flabbergasted that Citi is likely buying strong after their downgrade?

     

    I'm not.

     

    About three/four months ago, I wrote over in Quick Chat that I had noticed that three days after a GS downgrade was a time to buy. I'm not sure of the accuracy, but I'm betting it was higher than a 60% success ratio. Especially in this rising market "tin cupped" by our printing presses and tax dollars.
    1 Feb 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Must steal phrase "Tin Cupped" excellent!
    1 Feb 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. Need to wear one, nowadays. I'm down the kicked can, pothole-strewn road trying to catch it with a five iron!
    1 Feb 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Maya, as long as your not trying to kick the bucket.
    1 Feb 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    just went all green for the first time in... :))

     

    Anyone got any thoughts on gwmgf activity today? Still thinking of getting out and back somewhere in this. Can't tell if this little run up today is just a daily tick....or perhaps an indication of something around the corner - low volume. Thoughts??
    1 Feb 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    As posted earlier, is anyone concerned about Nick Curtis selling 85% of his direct shares? I think it's an odd time to sell, but maybe he's restricted on when he can sell. I heard he has lots of "options" aswell.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Jimp often insiders have to announce they are selling ahead of time and then they just have to take the price of the stock on the day of the sell they announced. Do not know if he announced and did that however.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Yes... I am concerned about the timing... its close to two conference calls... why would you sell now when a pop is anticipated in Feb on news on the ore concentrator?? unless....
    1 Feb 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    That occurred to me as well, jimp.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, he did, the month before. Announcing in December to sell January.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    He also avoided tax for 2010 with this Jan sell. Tax consequence is always part of the equation.
    1 Feb 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    be sure and see T.B.'s response to this above in reply to original jimp post...
    1 Feb 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Sure will be interesting what happens in Oz tonight. Could be a good time to buy for us tomorrow. I'm surprised we hit $1.96 today. I don't think there was a problem in Frankfurt either.
    1 Feb 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    does that mean you sold some today, ung?
    1 Feb 2011, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I did. They seemed to be a little uneasy with it in Oz, but after the increases in Frankfurt and here, they may be more relaxed.
    1 Feb 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another downcycle downunder underway...

     

    Lynas trading at $1.81 right now, and it would seem that the sale of stock by the CEO, Nick Curtis, could be driving this (or providing protective cover for the effort). A quick check of a number of investor sites shows the hoards of shorts chortling in glee and running down the stock as much as possible.

     

    To put it in perspective, Price sold 7million shares based upon a formal filing made Dec 16, 2010, with the sales spread over a number of days in January (all according to Australian law and above board).

     

    After selling the shares (almost all of them at prices above those we are seeing now), he only has about 46,000,000 more shares and options which he controls. The 31million options price out at 11 to 66 cents each, and vest from 2011 - 2013.

     

    My opinion is that this stock sale is neither a reflection of a lack of commitment from the CEO, nor anything odd. The timing is the classic tax-driven, strategic layout for a January sale.

     

    COULD this be a rat fleeing a sinking ship? There is a CHANCE of that being the case, but I really doubt it. All earlier press releases from the company are that the Mount Weld project (the proximate event featured in the upcoming conference calls) are on schedule.

     

    Everyone must make their own mind up about this, but I see this as still another whipping of the investor pool. If the timing is suspicious for the CEO to sell some of the shares under his control, the same thing applies to the reaction being to dump the stock price, whipsawing it right back to where it was yesterday. If indeed this sort of stock price WAS going to result from this insider trade, why didn't it occur this afternoon? That would be an interesting explanation I'd like to see...

     

    Anyway, I view this as another manipulation, and one which is rather bold and calculated. The insider trade is just what has been seized upon as a cause to give some excuse for the effect...

     

    We'll see how things shake out tomorrow. Perhaps Curtis will let the world know his motive for selling some of his shares.
    1 Feb 2011, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Funny...the timing of the Citi downgrade. So what volatile whipsaws are left before Mt. Weld opens for business?

     

    Thanks, Trip, for that news.
    1 Feb 2011, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » None I know of that have any valid reason, unless there is some dark secret which will leak prior to the conference calls.

     

    Of course, this insider sale is insufficient to explain the over-reaction, imo, so maybe next time it will be another move like that we saw last year, ie, simply wondering outloud (and via some newsletter to one's captive audience of, say, a major broker's clients) about some other aspect of Lynas' business...

     

    But I would not expect that to happen until the stock had recovered some value (it did that rather rapidly following the recent attack), so that culling the herd would be worth the effort for such a predator whale.

     

    The ASX is where the money really lies, the volume traded on the pinks and the ADR is small potatoes in comparison to the 30-40million shares traded daily as part of the ASX100. The index-driven activity alone makes an important strategic consideration...

     

    Anyone wishing to add more shares at a cheap price will have an opportunity tomorrow morning. Lynas is now trading on the ASX at $1.765.
    1 Feb 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC now trading down at $1.78 again.

     

    The other Aussie REE stocks I am tracking are doing just fine, all of them well up:

     

    NTU $.555, up $.025
    ARU $1.350, up $.030
    ALK $1.145, up $.060

     

    So its not a general down problem for the Aussie market.
    1 Feb 2011, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Volume for Lynas on the ASX is high, over 63million shares.

     

    Maybe the whale will get his fill...
    1 Feb 2011, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    During all this buying and selling of Lynas, including rats jumping from the ship, it is also good to remember why most of us bought into the stock in the first place. The stock has merit. Right now, none of the rare earth companies outside of China are ready to bring new material to market any time soon. What's more, only two are on schedule to do it before 2015.

     

    If China continues to limit exports, and demand continues to grow, the rest of the world is looking at a significant shortage until these companies can get online.

     

    That's why there's a global rush right now not only to find quality rare earth deposits, but also to find ways to accelerate the process.Molycorp [MCP 48.60 1.79 (+3.82%) ] and Lynas [LYSCF 1.97 0.19 (+10.67%) ] are the two best-known names in the space. Molycorp is the only U.S.-based company, and it expects the mine at Mountain Pass, Calif., to begin producing in the second half of 2012.

     

    Lynas (LYSCF) 1.97 0.19 (+10.67%) ] is based in Australia and has done all its mining. It is waiting for the completion of a processing plant in Malaysia. They might beat Molycorp to market by a few months. This information is bound to tip the scales to a hold position and to buy why this golden opportunity exists. It may be awhile before the days of $1.81 show up again any time soon.
    2 Feb 2011, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): A thought crossed my mind. I don't know if it's valid.

     

    In OZ, the weather woes are obviously having a negative effect on the index. AUD $ is stronger than US $. Sentiment here seems to be more positive (due to the recent awakening of our markets and congress to the importance of REEs, Lynas leading the race, ...).

     

    ISTM a big player could arbitrage both the currency difference and the pps difference, meaning that Lynas could be down at ASX and purchased there at almost parity (right now Aud/USD $1.013) and *slowly* sold here at a major profit. And if market flips, trade flips.

     

    ISTM that any pps difference >= 1.3% + fees is a profit opportunity at current currency ratio.

     

    Citi or any major player could certainly see this opportunity and take advantage.

     

    Benefits other than immediate profit: no downside risk as nothing needs to be held.

     

    Thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe what you mention is possible, even likely, but not for the volume we saw last night in Sydney. Nearly 77million shares traded, about double the norm.

     

    The weather effect on the market of the looming Class 5 cyclone (hurricane in this hemisphere) should not be forgotten, their mining industry in general has been hard hit (though Lynas is not vulnerable due to their remote desert location).

     

    Still, as a member of the ASX100 index, Lynas might easily be the baby getting tossed out with the flood water.

     

    So, to recap, and speculate, PART of the dip overnight could be local conditions in Australia - part playing the currrency exchange rate - and part a major player gaming the stock. I think most real world answers (if we could know them) would be every bit as messy.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. IMHO the CEO selling some of his shares is normal and expected as outlined in detail above. After all that is part of his compensation package and we all need cash for various reasons. Had he been bailing I suspect he would have sold much more than he has over a longer period. Citti (C) is being oportunistic timing this event to the "T" and the peripheral events fell into place to give them an assist. They may well be one of the major players set to capitalize on these circumstances thus the increased volume. They may in fact be shorting and stocking up as they drive the PPS down. I veiw this as a buying oportunity for those not yet in the stock or those wishing to add.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator link down below, robert, I have copied your post as the final comment here to the new Concentrator...
    2 Feb 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Would it be safe to assume that LYSCF will follow LYC back down to below the $1.80 line?
    2 Feb 2011, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It will assuredly start out cheap tomorrow morning. How long it stays there is anyone's guess at this point.
    2 Feb 2011, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Lol... so I'm guessing this order (WBT SELL -9,000 LYSCF @1.94 LMT GTC) which I'm going to leave working overnight probably won't get filled first thing in the morning, like I had hoped. Maybe you'd like to buy them, TB, hm? :P
    2 Feb 2011, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry Drizzo, but you're a little late with that order.

     

    Here's a quote from a similar situation from a comment I worte Oct. 27, 2010:

     

    [quote] OK, some of the fog of war regarding recent moves in the REE stocks is coming clear...

     

    JPMorgan was holding a considerable amount of Lynas (LYSCF.PK) stock, and rating them a Buy/Hold. Recently they sold those shares, THEN downgraded the stock to a Sell. This precipitated turmoil in the REE space. JPMorgan listed as their reason for this move (other than profits for them, of course) as concerns over the financing for the Malaysian facility Lynas is building. (This is an amazingly vague, even blurry, and totally unsubstantiated bit of obfuscation - that financing is in place and building the facility, its not any mystery at all).

     

    I am treating this situation as a buying opp, as I suspect is JPMorgan (odd coincidence, that).

     

    This is still early in the story cycle, and as I mentioned, the fog of (market) war is thick enough to cut into steaks.

     

    So: Adding (LYSCF.PK) today. [quote]

     

    I will be looking to pick up more shares cheap come the morning, assuming the price hits a plateau or starts going back up again.
    2 Feb 2011, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    I've arrived at the conclusion that TB has a field full of money trees in his backyard that he uses to always be ready to capitalize on each and every buying opportunity that becomes available.

     

    We're all lucky that he isn't selfish with the seeds. :P
    2 Feb 2011, 01:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I blew out of the market just before the drop last July, and have been cash heavy ever since.

     

    Still have a lot of dry powder, though not nearly so much as then.

     

    Days like today are one reason for the dry powder.

     

    To paraphrase a thoroughly amoral political animal now trying to get elected the glorious Mayor of Chicago: "Never let a crisis go to waste".
    2 Feb 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is currently trading on the ASX at $1.715. I think the manipulators now have their breakthrough and hopefully have filled their coffers so that the honest market can start to heal.

     

    I plan to add 1000 shares of (LYSDY.PK) early.
    2 Feb 2011, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Ouch man. Shiv right to the stomach. They really gutted us this time. Well, gutted me, at least.
    2 Feb 2011, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not hardly happy either, Drizzo. This crap is turning me into a day trader, and that is NOT my plan.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Heh yeah, same here.
    2 Feb 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    TripB - Hope you didn't miss out on yesterdays sell @ $1.96.
    2 Feb 2011, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    Day Trading keeps you busy while the market is heading where you don't think it will! :o)
    2 Feb 2011, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nope, I'm long this one. $3 or more before I even take profits.
    2 Feb 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): With my last add @ $1.82 and $1.78, it'll need to go to ~$1.6x for me to look at more here. With 50 day SMA having seemed to act as support recently (now $1.785, yesterday $1.774), Fibonacii 61.8% @ $1.81, resistance/support $1.81 & $1.78, and gap $1.80/$1.88 to be filled, I wouldn't expect a low much beyond $1.76 or so, allowing for overshoot. But we did bottom on the recent down leg @ $1.75, so an overshoot of that could put us in the low $1.7x range.

     

    On yesterday's move up, volume did exceed the 10 day average, albeit not by much. Action was enough to move several indicators to a more positive bias, although not strongly yet - too early in the move.

     

    Given these thoughts and the fact that so many folks *should* see any retreat as an attractive add point, we might get a less bad than expected pps move. I think a lot depends on the ratio of traders to investors that are in the market for Lynas, in terms of dollars.

     

    If JPM, Citi, et al are really using their downgrades to create a buying opportunity for themselves and have pps targets in the future substantially above current range, they might provide the buying pressure to support price. Momo players will be easily dislodged, so they should provide the selling pressure. If there's not many of them ...

     

    I think investors will likely hold or add to their positions.

     

    On the ASX, last $1.73, high $1.945, low $1.695 on very large volume, 76.74MM shares traded.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Just for the hell of it, I put a sell order in on my LYSCF. Guess where the trade is being routed through. None other than Citigroup Global Markets Inc. Is this suspicious or coincidence?
    2 Feb 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    I don't know if your on-board with this, but the market makers are the allies of their larger clients, whether it's Citi, NASDAQ, BATS, EDG(A/X), ...

     

    Even prior to the extensive computerization, the ability of the market makers to see all orders, ebb and flow, allowed them to manipulate price. Add in that they are allowed to maintain their own portfolio, naked short with impunity, ... and you can see how the deck is (still, as always has been) stacked against the small retail trader or investor.

     

    All the hullabaloo about the SEC being awakened from their interminable slumber is just so much sop for the masses. Nothing has, or will be, changed.

     

    If you want a real eye-opening education, take a look at the SEC published "fails to deliver" rules and amendments posted (obscurely) on the SEC site. You will be flabbergasted (probably) to learn that the 3 day settlement period in force for most of us are not in force at all for the big shorters and market makers. IIRC, with all the exceptions and extensions allowed, it can go up to around two months. This gives plenty of time to move a stock that has moved adversely to the shorter's position to a more favorable price.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    To the degree the fat-cats have an unfair advantage in this country no longer surprises me in the least.

     

    I have to think all of this C's downgrade, the routing of my shares through/to C, and to a degree Curtis' sale are all mechanizations to beat the hell out of Lynas to the lowest point so those in and reap the greatest rewards. It just doesn't make any rational sense why Lynas should not be a $6 stock by the end of 2012. Unless, Mt. Weld, LAMP and all the rest are just a bunch of BS. If so, Curtis would make Ponzi look like a rank amateur.
    2 Feb 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article about Curtis' sale.

     

    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    2 Feb 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, I was just going to go back there and look for that.

     

    Curtis isn't apologizing, and I see no reason he should. His move isn't evil or even illogical, EXCEPT that perhaps it is now being used as a club and a mask to hide the actions of others.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    He mentioned that he is interested in diversifying his assets at his age.
    He is head honcho in a couple of other businesses other than Lynas.
    Maybe he thinks that since Lynas has gotten off the ground and gotten going, he could now concentrate on the other firms. They might be more profitable for him in the long run.
    www.sinoresources.com....
    www.forgeresources.com...
    2 Feb 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how long he'd been planning the sale? and I wonder why he didn't sell off a few weeks ago when Lynas hit $2.30+? To me that would have seemed more logical, unless it was an "oh well, nothing else to do today, I think I'll sell off $13.5mil shares today!" kinda feeling. Wonder what the tax implications on the sale would have been?
    2 Feb 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    He was bound by law to announce the projected sale in advance.
    2 Feb 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. He had to post up the notice of sale Dec 16 and layout the days (6 or 7, I don't remember precisely) in January when the sale would take place a month later. This is Australian law to protect from insider abuse. Also the reason I don't buy the drop in prices (which ARE just downstream of the very strange initial coverage with a SELL instruction from Citibank last week) being from the CEO selling 7million of the company's 1.7billion shares.
    2 Feb 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I guess I understand the fella's reasoning, but I'd still like to kind of punch him in the nose a little.

     

    I don't think this is a case of the head rat jumping ship first. If so, I think other rare earth stocks would have reacted (especially NT:NOURF) as I am sure if there was something very amiss other corporate high-flyers would have caught a whiff. Nonetheless, I would still like to punch Nick Curtis in the nose a little bit. Just from a public perception stand-point that now must be overcome.
    2 Feb 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    In 3 months you may want to kiss him for bringing you this opportunity to get some so cheap.

     

    I believe Maya said it earlier about thanking C for this buying opportunity. Maybe they both need thanked.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I am hoping so, doubleguns, as I will buy more today if the price is right (<1.85).
    2 Feb 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    The size and timing of Curtis's sale spooked even some of his most ardent supporters. From messages in various places on the web, you are not the only one having an interest in his nose.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If he had not sold a single share, we would still be looking at this same situation, except the blame would be on the cyclone or some other handy item.

     

    We are still well inside the splash zone for the C-manipulation...
    2 Feb 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    Judging from the Lynas reads . . . the price is right and it's a very good buying opportunity for the long hold. Too much positive out there for them. Curtis didn't leave the company, he only sold off a few shares. Maybe he wanted to put a room addition on his cottage to help benefit the housing work force.
    2 Feb 2011, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    TB, I am thinking only since I can not buy, but C down graded this stock after they knew the CEO was going to sell. He sold now because of the tax issue and they have good news to bring the stock back up after the effect of his sell with the Mt. Weld project. NOt to mention he has options he needs to excersize this year so he will need the money to buy them.

     

    C knows the game and issues and thus down graded it to scarf up a lot of shares on the cheap. I think the fundamentals for this stock are right so it can only be a buying opportunity.

     

    I will be looking at ways to get in this stock and Ohios blue sky laws be damned!!
    2 Feb 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well said, I believe your scenario is more plausible than that Curtis purposely undercut his own stock to net some cash because of insider knowledge.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    You believe his scenario because your brain is only seeking positive news to confirm your bias.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Perhaps. LOL, but then again, I have thousands of comments on here in dozens of blogs, presenting mountains of objective data too.

     

    But I won't pretend to be without bias. Impossible to make rational decisions without some sort of guiding belief.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    That's ALWAYS a distinct possibility, but this stock has something the world needs and its in short supply right now, so I will dismiss that option in this case.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    DG: Greetings. I posted something similar upstream to the effect that those stocks are part of the CEO's compensation package. Even CEOs need to get paid every now and again. Citti (C) and others are being opportunistic in my veiw and could be shorting while stocking up for their own pay day later. I'm a buyer here too as I want my cut. LOL.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    omgwen3 - If you have negative reads on Lynas, why don't you share them with us? Seems like the rest of those commenting here have only been able to locate positive trends with Lynas and found a good opportunity to buy. Biased? why else would someone buy anything unless he thought it would make $$$ either in the short or long hold?
    2 Feb 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    I think the article stating why Mr. Curtis sold some stock seems reasonable. The only negatives I've heard whispered but not substantiated was that the yield of rare earths from Mt. Weld was low.
    Additionally, just like MCP they have small amounts of heavies.
    I feel this is just another bump on this long road in the rare earths.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Its not reasonable, the company is going to make an announcement on the progress of their plants in Australia. The company share trading policy states that a director must not sell his share within 10 days of a
    of an important announcement. SO he is selling now before he updates shareholders on the news out of that range so it is still within the law. Think of it as legal insider trading.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    LYSDY down nearly 10% at the open. Jeeze what a buying opportunity.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): *Early* action indicates good support @ $1.75. Most smaller trades going @ $1.75 and most larger trades @ $1.76.

     

    *Presented* 500 share blocks bid/ask have a buy imbalance of 11:5. Volume after 11 minutes 432.74K.

     

    We may be very near the low for the day, $1.75.

     

    Of course, my SWAG is high-risk.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Double Gunns your logic don't make sense, if there is news coming up ahead he would wait for the announcement, wait for the good news has passed THEN sell his holdings to maximize profit. Coming soon this month he is suppose to announce progress on the Concentrator plant in Western Australia and i strongly suspect the project is facing some delays. He is selling his shares before announcing the bad news.

     

    The timing of sells is very suspicious.I am out for the time being.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Date is 2-9, next week, for the calls to commence. Links are listed in the Concentrator.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Interesting find. I can buy LYSDY on my etrade only if I use a limit buy. Just tested it on 50 shares at 17.70 and it bought it. Hallelujah!!! Still no go on the other symbol possibly but I do not want to test it at this point.

     

    Now I can weep along with everyone else until this turns around.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    That's a better symbol - you can set stop loss, trailing stop loss, etc. And this applies on the buy side too!

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    ETrade works fine for me on LYSCF, but it has to be a Limit order. You can refresh the Bid/Ask prices to get a better handle on pricing before you pull the trigger.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Well, I jumped in at 1.76 to the tune of 3235 shares.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    bukdow: Greetings. I think you will reap some very good profits from that purchase.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • haleiwahu
    , contributor
    Comments (4001) | Send Message
     
    Buk - I don't think you are the only one that made that wise move. I'm hoping tomorrow will be a very good opening. Haven't noticed much happening before on it, but if after hours trading happens, it could be very interesting for Lynas holders.
    2 Feb 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    ouble Gunns your logic don't make sense, if there is news coming up ahead he would wait for the announcement, wait for the good news has passed THEN sell his holdings to maximize profit. Coming soon this month he is suppose to announce progress on the Concentrator plant in Western Australia and i strongly suspect the project is facing some delays. He is selling his shares before announcing the bad news.

     

    The timing of sells is very suspicious.I am out for the time being.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9651) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OMG, I believe if there is bad news and he knows it that would put him into a position of "insider trading" but then he could say that he initiated the sell in Dec before the bad news was known. I appreciate your skepticism since differing view points keeps us from getting into a group think mentality and driveing the bus over the clift.

     

    All opinions are certainly appreciated and no one is going to pooh pooh your opinion here. In fact you might bring up something no one had considered and save our butts. Please speak freely since it is the free exchange of ideas that makes this a better informed investment opportunity for all that venture here.

     

    I do not have all the answers and never want to be considered a financial guru. Just bringing forth ideas in hopes of working out investment opportunitys that we may gleen or learn as time goes on.

     

    Yep in 7 days as TB said we will know. I always like to buy beaten down stocks for quick pops. I believe this is one.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We heard you the first time omg.

     

    And you might be right. None of us truly knows what the future holds. in 7 days we will learn.
    2 Feb 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    Adding to that, IMHO, assessing the reasoning of another's take with implied pejoratives is not helpful to any of us.

     

    Disagreement is fine, and welcomed.

     

    Again, MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    IMHO if the Lynas (LYSCF) CEO were bailing he would have unloaded more shares over a longer interval. Keep in mind he still has substantialy more than he sold.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Pps looks to be nicely recovering. Now bid/ask $1.78/$1.79 with sell imbalance of 7:4 but most trades going at the ask. Some large one too: 100K, 14K, 29.5K, 10K, ...

     

    Gee, I wonder if some (one?) of those is Citi or JPM.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could be. Or GS or any number of big fish. They tend to school, you know...
    2 Feb 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Don't take it the wrong way OK? I am actually on your side, I am a long term shareholder too and have been for 5 years.I have lessen my holdings BUT i still have alot of shares in LYC. I have learnt to be brutally objective and not fool myself and trust me I want this share to go up But i gotta say it how it is.
    2 Feb 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19439) | Send Message
     
    If you're referring to my comment, statements about _your_own_ state of mind are certainly reasonable.

     

    Statements about *another's* state of mind may be based on pure speculation and certainly doesn't help us all do better.

     

    Mutual minimal respect, IMO, dictates that we avoid such, *except* as we gain familiarity and may joke around.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2011, 10:11 AM Reply