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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Feb. 5, 2011 153 comments
    Feb 5, 2011 11:18 AM | about stocks: MCP, REMX, AVL, DNN, PCP, URRE, REE, TC, GMO

    LOL, here I am looking for actionable investment information!

    Sorry, still no charting, I will have to devote time to that ASAP.  I will come back and add some whenever I can get caught up.
    Themes: RARE EARTH Stocks: MCP, REMX, AVL, DNN, PCP, URRE, REE, TC, GMO
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  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6004) | Send Message
     
    Oohhhh Nice! Reminds me of the old Prince Valiant comics!
    5 Feb 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Title is "The Narrator". Character from a book I have been working on.
    5 Feb 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Can you use REE to kill the villains ?? Very nice character!
    Here.....Buy buy buy! To buy time, just grab some quotes from Cramer for the time being.
    “I'm not just here to tell you about stocks. I'm here to teach you to think like Cramer!”
    "These will be fabulous investments and will make millions of more people rich."
    btw, I like Bloomberg TV much better though!
    8 Feb 2011, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9912) | Send Message
     
    He looks determined and menacing in his flaming sleeved habit. I don't want anything to do with that dude! My actionable investment would be in self-preservation and to run for the nearest speedboat.
    5 Feb 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Those are some pretty sweet illustrations, TB. Well done.
    5 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    The wizard of Wall Street? LOL. Well done!
    7 Feb 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8335) | Send Message
     
    A portrait of Ben?!! Guess he is getting ready for QE next!!
    7 Feb 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    John Kaiser just did an analysis of Lynas Corp on Feb 4th. First he is appalled at the lack of disclosure under Australian regulations. This has somewhat "colored" his view. Also, he feels that since Lynas is not a mine to market co., its a nice proxy for sentiment towards rare earth oxides price expectations.

     

    He is cautious and maybe concerned about the lack of disclosure over Lynas corps technical, cost issues, and recovery abilities of its rare earths oxides. First Qrt 2012, we should know how effective and costly Lynas recoveries are. There lies the source of most of his uncertainty/ caution. He concludes saying he is neutral on Lynas.

     

    He calculates at current spot prices (and that price becoming the new longterm price), with 7.50/kg for cost, a $ 4.40 PPS as best case / peak price.

     

    Other notes: IMO, he felt more upbeat regarding MCP ( $140.00 PPS price potential.) He was not impressed with GWM & Stans Kutassey...
    6 Feb 2011, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Short term, Lynas is likely to be the closest thing to a "mine to market" company ex-China. MCP has announced some aggressive intentions, but their mine remains mothballed, their old processing plant (which they have announced will be replaced with new equipment with a far higher capacity, a project not yet started) is barely idling along from ore stockpiled a decade or more ago. If all that is required are good intentions, then I suppose one could term MCP a "potential mine to market" company, assuming they intend to direct market all the different oxides they plan to produce.

     

    Until they build their own AMP, MCP won't be a mine.to.market operation, either. This is something hinted at but not yet actually disclosed as to any details, and which presumably will fall downwind of building a processing plant at Mountain Pass capable of hitting the high 40,000kmt/year production goal they recently splashed around.

     

    Of course Lynas has their LAMP far along and scheduled for a startup later this year, long before MCP will even have their new processing plant done, much less any AMP facilities of their own.

     

    Tossing rocks at the Australian government's rules doesn't make much sense, and particularly in light of the fact that Lynas has made few friends among the metallurgical set with their intensive secrecy over the proprietory technology they are building at their Mount Weld processing plant. Questioning the lack of data with which to reach conclusions (or more accurately, vet the conclusions published by Lynas), must be irritating for people like Kaiser. The fact that they would recoil from endorsing an operation which is being constructed under this sort of secrecy is quite understandable...

     

    In light of this, his neutral conclusion is both logical and fair. In fact, its hard to see how he could say otherwise, until he knows more. Otherwise he is reduced to echoing Lynas' press releases, and that must rankle. Dismissing the LAMP as being a Mine to Market example is odd, though...

     

    I agree with his take on Stans Energy (LOL, though I will continue to make money from the stock, trading in and out), and disagree as regards GWM, mainly because it is such an odd duck to include in the group. Like comparing 3 apples and 1 green pea.
    6 Feb 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    Excellent counter views!
    6 Feb 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Great comments tripleblack! But the odd thing is how Kaiser complains about Lynas and GWM but then likes far more speculative exploration projects where information, by virtue of the stage the projects are at, is minimal and unverifiable. It is as if Kaiser likes juniors that disclose what they know but know very little versus projects that are clearly developing but are not worried about touting their story to him. This type of reasoning makes me wonder if this is another 'paid consultant" situation?
    6 Feb 2011, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could be, but there's no way to know. His comments on other topics are often very logical or revelatory of inside data... Which might be where the personal ego component could creep in. I prefer to believe that he lacks the detailed analytical data which he desires (hence his railing at what he perceives to be incomplete Australian regulations in this area).
    7 Feb 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Note that in addition to his estimates of $4.40 and $140 assuming current FOB spot prices continue, he also gives estimates using current domestic Chinese prices. These are $0.24 and $15.62 for Lynas and Moly respectively. He acknowledges that picking the "right price" between those two extremes is essentially guesswork. What I find interesting is that comparing his estimates to current share prices, if you think the two outcomes are 50/50 you are getting good "odds" for Moly but no nearly as good for Lynas. I.e., Moly's current price is one third of the potential upside and three times the potential downside. You would be risking 2/3 of your investment in order to triple it. Not bad odds. However, for Linas the estimated upside is about 250% (4.40 compared to 1.80), but the downside risk is almost 90% of your investment. Add in the greater uncertainty about Lynas' numbers due to the less strict Australian regs and you have the reason I'm not in Lynas. Of course, I'm not in Moly either. I have some "horses in the race", just not either of those. I think it raises some interesting aspects for debate, however.
    6 Feb 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    IMHO, we will probably never return to domestic Chinese prices, but your stats do not lie.
    6 Feb 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Domestic Chinese prices are definitely not the topic. Particularly since those are based upon geopolitical goals rather than supply and demand markets. The day China decides they no longer want to force high tech Western companies to transfer their factories (and more importantly, their technology) to China, things will be dramatically different... LOL, and that is NEVER going to happen.

     

    This is similar to comparing market pricing a year AFTER the American government allowed private ownership of gold to the price when it was pegged at about $20 per ounce.

     

    China has already accomplished what it meant to accomplish with CHEAP REE prices. Now their plans are to push REE prices higher, but most importantly, to coerce as many more technological fish into their nets as they can before the situation gets out of their control.

     

    Anyone analyzing this sector without including geopolitical and strategic realities in their thinking is making a logical error.

     

    This sort of analysis also equates a Lynas with a functional mine, high volume modern processor and LAMP with a MCP which is PROMISING those things, but cannot deliver them for years.

     

    We will soon see whether a LAMP in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

     

    Its a horse race. And the huge bulk of the potential business ex-China is very much sitting on their hands and waiting to see who can actually start shipping product first.

     

    I am also not so blase about MCP being valued at $140 per share, even in a year or two (or three). Pesumably this will occur after they repair the mothballed mine, build a very large and intricate processing plant, build a big AMP from scratch, and create a fabrication and casting plant capable of fulfilling at least the portion of their mine to market plan which involves magnet production.

     

    4 or 5 tall orders there, and some sweeping assumptions that the rest of the planet will just stand aside and let them take whatever market share they want.

     

    Don't get me wrong, I ultimately see MCP worth upwards of $75-100 per share myself, but their current stock price is much too rich for my blood (I might be a buyer in the high 30's, say $38), particularly until we see what happens with this new lockbox, and whatever plans they pop up with. Much of that play is also involving mucho government support, and this with a background of planned "austerity"...

     

    I frankly expect some sort of bill to come out, and for it to include things which will NOT immediately add to the federal deficit. Loan guarantees and similar subsidies, I would think, but not grants or tax credits (which can amount to the same thing, of course.)

     

    With MCP you see both the market risk that all companies (like Lynas) face, but also domestic political risk, and a potential erosion due to the wild card, time...
    6 Feb 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Something I've not heard mentioned, which seems to me adds a gram or two on the Lynas side of the scale: proximity - to their processing locations and customers. Shorter shipping times and lower shipping costs ought to provide a small edge to them, I would think. Certainly not a huge factor, but an edge nonetheless.

     

    A negative could be if the AUD continues to strengthen, but that might stall while they suffer reduced economic productive activity as the damaged infrastructure is rebuilt. If they don't move their rates up again, we could see a small weakening, which would also help on the pricing and profit front.

     

    It's not something I'm counting on though.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Feb 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    If I used analysts this way I would have been broke long ago. Analysts comment on the market. They do not make the market. I think the best way to use them is to gather as many of them together with the rest of your research and see where they add information and angles. Then look at all the information and angles and determine what's a buy. In other words, reading an analysts conclusion is never due diligence. And even the analyst will agree that the reasoning process (base case, risks, drivers, ect) is far more valuable towards understanding the investment and when to enter or exit a stock.
    6 Feb 2011, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Another piece mentioning Kaiser's position. Seems like there is alot of buddying up occurring now in this environment. I know I'm stating the obvious...but it seems more apparent in recent weeks that the powers that be out there all have their own allegiances, whether they be national, financial, political, ot personal. The only source I have ever seen both MCP AND LYSCF touted is SA. Fact is this a potentially lucrative emerging market and everyone wants to claim it for their side.

     

    www.stockhouse.com/Bul...
    6 Feb 2011, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6004) | Send Message
     
    Here is they way I am looking at it. Stock prices consist of four components, Market, real CURRENT valuation, speculative factors, management factors. Any of these four factors can be either positive or negative.

     

    I think the reason Moly is so highly priced right now is because it has a high positive speculative component (Risk). Moly is not mining anything. Its current production facilities are antiquated. Given that they don't seem to be doing anything but talking and making deals, I can't evaluate their managements ability to actually manage. So by my logic, Moly's current valuation is all about future speculative valuation. I see a lot of risk associated with that high Moly stock valuation.

     

    Meanwhile Lynas is much closer to production. Even if they have problems, they have people actually building their LAMP site and their ore concentrator site. They are actively mining ore and shipping it to the ore concentrator site. I see management that is capable of doing things other than talking and making deals.

     

    On a horse race basis, Lynas is hands down going to win the getting to the market first race. On a valuation basis, I think once Lynas gets to the market, its valuation is going to sharply climb.

     

    As for Moly, at the current time, I think the downside risk associated with Moly is much higher than the downside risk associated with Lynas. Lynas is no where near its production valuation even thought its very near to actually producing. Moly is much closer to its production valuation but it is no where near to actually producing anything but hot air. Will money keep flowing into Moly? I guess that depends on how hard they keep beating the drum….

     

    So I guess you could make money on either stock… one, Lynas based on the ability of the company to actually produce ore concentrate and fully finished materials, the other Moly, based on the production of hot air.
    6 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I agree with your sentiment. I am hoping that the vibe and surrounding pomp and circumstance (or lack of) with Lynas - in sharp contrast to some of the other players - is, in fact, a reflection of a well-positioned, well-managed, and patient operation seeking sooner-than-later real returns over typical pumping and hype to drive stock price. So much of what occurs in this country right now is smoke and mirrors and political strong-arming. I don't trust it. Many who "succeed" are given the right to. Look at General Electric, look at the car companies, the medical and food industries etc etc etc. I've been amused watching the attacks on Toyota and elevation of GM. I see the same thing in some regards with MCP and Lynas. Look at REE...are they even a real company at this time?? Someone likes them.
    6 Feb 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    REE company is for trade and not to own. Full of LT research rock survey reports. I certainly will not paid thousand of dollars to own that. Trade for ghostly potentials ????
    8 Feb 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    I know Lynas has gotten a lot of press. I'm hoping in the coming months that it has its "hype" moment. And that speculative / hype
    fever spurs the stock price to irrational levels. It happens all the time.
    Maybe it will take a listing on an american exchange or china behaving badly or an acquisition. As Kaiser says regarding Lynas, my fingers are crossed.
    6 Feb 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I know this seems surreal to those of us who are so immersed in the investment narrative, but the announcement that Lynas has actually cranked up Mount Weld and is roaring down the path toward over 22,000kmt's per year in oxides will SHOCK many people, including a large gaggle of pundits and xperts.

     

    What is old news and a long running story over a period of years to us, will be a headline that will rock their worlds...

     

    Depending on what happens in the lamestream financial media.

     

    Citibank and JPM will have to alter their coverage on the stock eventually, and that alone (as we have seen) can make a big difference...

     

    As for exuberant stock prices, the same powerful manipulation that can tank a stock can lift it to the heavens.

     

    Its almost a given, with circumstances such as we see in this case.

     

    Would I feel a twinge of conscience if C and JPM, after dumping Lynas, pump it up to $10 per share?

     

    ...No. I'll sell most to the poor schmucks which the pundits and xperts lead around by the nose, hang onto my core holding, and wait for the next round, probably involving MCP or M&A for the smalls.
    6 Feb 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Jimo...thanks for reminding me that some of the "hype" others are enjoying right now wouldn't be bad for Lynas...and for us. I guess irrational levels for Lynas wouldn't be so bad!
    6 Feb 2011, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    The Australian banks, who should have shrewd insight about miner's hype, seem to be enjoying the mining sector the way it is performing right now.
    www.theaustralian.com....
    6 Feb 2011, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    www.nytimes.com/2011/0...

     

    2/6/11
    6 Feb 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (685) | Send Message
     
    WSJ: China Moves to Strengthen Grip Over Supply of Rare-Earth Metals.

     

    online.wsj.com/article...

     

    2/6/11
    6 Feb 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    A good article. Lynas and MCP actually get mentioned.

     

    Can't hurt interest in the stocks of REE companies -- especially those two.
    7 Feb 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Sudden. Permanent. Game-Changing. Earth-Shaking.

     

    5 Febuary 2011:

     

    Permanent decisions about Chinese REE exports have happened.

     

    The Non Chinese world needs to come to grip with the New Reality:

     

    How to find and fund Non Chinese REE mining and manufacturing sources for all Non Chinese demand?

     

    Let me explain the change that has happened:

     

    "China and US shoot satellites in standoff" Telegraph Group Ltd. UK

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    Dates: January 2007, February 2008, January 2010, February 2010.

     

    Did these international incidents cause the Chinese to change Chinese REE export policy?

     

    Did the Chinese determine that sharing REE with potential military adversaries is not in Chinese Strategic Interest?

     

    If these statements are true, how permanent is the Chinese REE export ban? Particularly of the scarce and strategically important HREE?

     

    How permanent is the Chinese ban of Dy Tb Y ?

     

    Permanent decisions about Chinese REE exports have been made as a result of this incident?

     

    Obviously there are other considerations, e.g, relative scarcity of materials, self interest in developing their own REE manufacturing sector. As the Chinese move up the technological REE manufacturing chain, they shall consume most if not all of Chinese produced REEs.

     

    Further, China claims that China is now “environmentally” concerned?

     

    These “official” explanations seemed insufficient to explain the drastic change in REE exports and total ban on Dy Tb Y.

     

    Addendum comments: 6 Febuary 2011:

     

    Suddenly the earth-shaking game-changing REE world events of the last year make sense.

     

    Sudden severe Chinese REE export restrictions and the Chinese ban of Dy Tb Y make perfect sense.

     

    Suddenly why are we surprised that our tiny fledging REE miners have doubled, tripled, quadrupled, or more within one year?

     

    “There are two ways to live: you can live as if nothing is a miracle; you can live as if everything is a miracle.” -- Albert Einstein.

     

    Seemed like a “miracle” didn’t it? Guess what? That’s how things appear until more facts are revealed?

     

    Finally the China and USA “star wars race” conflict was revealed 2 February 2011 by UK Telegraph. (See attached links to numerous articles).

     

    This conflict extends to the rest of the Western world. For example, China’s fear of Strategic Missle Defense Shield in Japan by the USA.

     

    A major change in policy is often due to a significant incident. Why are we surprised?

     

    Please do not take my opinion as fact for yourself. Please review the maze of documents just released by UK Telgraph. Come up with your own judgements. (Links attached).

     

    Please spend 10 minutes or 10 hours doing your own analysis of the just revealed UK Telegraph documents, and decide in your own mind the permanent consequences to REE Mining/Manufacturing.

     

    The Chinese shall ban most rare earths and certainly any HREE that have military applications. The West shall never again trust the Chinese for vital REE resources.

     

    Yes the REE world is forever changed. Irreversibly. Permanently.

     

    The Non Chinese REE mining and manufacturing world is suddenly called upon to deliver 50 percent of the world’s REE supply.

     

    Impossible REE demands shall be placed on the Non Chinese REE Miners/Manufacturers. Can we deliver? I doubt we can.

     

    Severe pressure shall be placed upon each and every Non Chinese Miner to produce. Currently, only 7 Non Chinese REE miners are expected in production by 2015 (Alkane, Arafura, Avalon, Great Western, Molycorp, Lynas, and Dong Pao of Vietnam).

     

    Personally I doubt that these 7 select companies can replace 50 percent of the world’s rare earth needs, even at current levels.

     

    Perhaps with more warning, more awareness of the 2 February 2011 revelations, our Non Chinese miners could have geared up faster, expanded more rapidly, more money could have been raised, more workers trained, etc.?

     

    We have been living in a world based on old assumptions. China: The Rare Earth Monopolist would be our REE “Mama”. China would provide any shortfall that the Non Chinese miners could not provide in the next few years?

     

    New Reality: Virtually all of the Non Chinese demand needs to be supplied by Non Chinese Mining and Manufacturing companies, i.e., 50 percent of the world’s total use of REEs. Virtually all of the already Chinese banned REE: Dy Tb Y. China has already banned 41 REE manufactured products. How soon!

     

    The progression to a total Chinese REE ban is inevitable and may happen at any time.

     

    Is the Non Chinese world prepared for severe shortages? Shortages that the US Department of Energy said in December 2010 shall last at least 15 years? (See attached link).

     

    The world’s most successful businesses: Siemens, General Electric, Toyota, Honda, Apple, etc. and governmental needs: Japan, USA, EU, South Korea, India are all threatened.

     

    China: No safety valve for the world. See Zhang Anwen statement: Video attached.

     

    Solutions happen when actions are taken.

     

    May I ask a question? How can we come to our own personal interpretations, and merge our collective interpretation of the New Reality? What actions can we take? How can we “spread the word” of real shortages, real need to increase Non Chinese REE supply capability?

     

    What obligations do governments have to mitigate potential damage to their National Defense, and potential crippling of businesses?

     

    Is there a true REE crisis? A true emergency?

     

    If there is an impending disaster of supply shortfall, what can we do to make a difference? Individually? Collectively? Individual REE companies? REE companies collectively? REE industry collectively?

     

    The future is in our hands. Our collective hands. We will be judged as an industry by our actions.

     

    Yes these are great opportunities for the Non Chinese REE mining/manufacturing industry, but at the same time severely difficult times ahead even working together.

     

    Can we accomplish a nearly impossible task: fulfilling our call to provide the modern world with a sufficient supply of REE?

     

    How will history judge us?

     

    Attached links:

     

    2 February 2011 UK Telegraph Ltd:

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne...

     

    USA Department of Energy Report: Critical Materials Strategy December 2010:

     

    www.energy.gov/news/do...

     

    Zhang Anwen a leading Chinese government advisor and Deputy Secretary General of Inner Mongolia Rare Earth Guild who in Beijing conference Spring 2010 said:

     

    “Foreign countries should calmly and logically think about this and develop their own mines for their own needs. Our (China) resources are diminishing and we (China) need these minerals for our own use.”

     

    (Minutes 2:46 to 3:20 in the 6:19 minute video)

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    6 Feb 2011, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Great Post REnderus~!!! Bravo!
    7 Feb 2011, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I got a copy of this intense comment from renderus as a pm, and asked him to post it here for us to link to and discuss...
    6 Feb 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Have fun commenting on this pm to you.

     

    Glad for the discussion. Appreciate you opinion and your followers!

     

    This is a game-changer.

     

    Personal message from Don Bubar CEO Avalon confirms my opinion?

     

    How do you guys feel?

     

    Cheers from "downunder"

     

    Watching the Superbowl here in NZ

     

    renderus
    6 Feb 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Actually this information regarding China's military build up and intentions was discussed last year on the QC including their development of the "Carrier killer.". Their (China's) intention to inhibit the western power's influence in their sphere of influence on the PACRIM is very clear. They now want to bid on military contracts for Uncle Sugar which would indeed be very dangerous should this administration allow such a thing. Our fearless leaders are now discussing the REE issues regarding DOD and will undoubtedly create a strategic stock pile in the near future which has also been discussed extensively by the Gades. Thanks for sharing.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More on the prospects for Lynas, as we get closer to 2-9 calls...

     

    Here is what I wrote a few days ago, detailing what we can expect to see from Lynas' Central Deposit Mine at Mount Weld:

     

    The following numbers are based upon 20,000 mt per year (they are shooting for more, of course):

     

    Lanthanium Oxide $64.10 25.5% 5.1kmt/year worth $326,910,000
    Cerium Oxide $67.10 46.74% 9.35kmt/year worth $627,385,000
    Neodymium Oxide $114.00 18.5% 3.7kmt/year worth $421,800,000
    Praseodymium Oxide $105.50 5.32% 1.74kmt/year worth $112,252,000
    Samarium Oxide $61.10 2.27% .454kmt/year worth $277,394,000
    Dysprosium Oxide $375.00 .124% 24,800 kilos/year worth $9,300,000
    Europium Oxide $646.00 .443% 88,600 kilos/year worth $57,235,600
    Terbium Oxide $640.00 .068% 13,600 kilos/year worth $8,704,000

     

    Total: 20kmt/year worth $1,870,977,600

     

    OK....

     

    Now here is a link to the PDF that details the Duncan Deposit, co-located with the Central Deposit at Mount Weld:

     

    www.lynascorp.com/cont...

     

    This Deposit was defined and studied in 2008, and if you look closely at the illustration in this pdf, you will see that the existing open pit mine is sitting immediately adjacent to it. Lynas is already in an excellent position to capitalize on this deposit, which includes another huge augmentation to their total REO tonnage, but most importantly...

     

    A richer mix of HREEs.

     

    The Duncan Deposit contains even more of the desireable Neodymium, 18.08% vs 16.87% in the Central Deposit, and more than twice the Terbium. It has .77% Europium vs .49%, and 2.15% Gadolinium vs 1.33%. One important advantage is that Dysprosium (currently one of the REEs China has banned from shipments outside the country) measures 1.36%, vs .31% in the Central Deposit.

     

    All the heavies are present in richer proportions, and finally the deposit is quite rich in Yttrium, at fully 5.36% vs .95%.

     

    And the overall quantities are measured in the millions of tonnes.

     

    Read the PDF, and study the simple charts.

     

    Lynas mentions that they plan to conduct more drilling and sampling early this year, with an eye to modifying their pit plan...

     

    One guess which direction they plan to dig!

     

    I have done some estimating, based upon these newer and richer numbers, and best I can tell just these new additions will increase their yearly take to about $2.4billion, and even more as time goes on and they offset their pit to intersect the Duncan Deposit more fully.

     

    I have discussed Lynas with a number of investors, and almost without exception those that are critical of the stock mention that Lynas just has lighter REE deposits.

     

    Its important to include this more uptodate data in one's thinking, and remember that these percentages (many of which are indeed quite small) are being applied to extremely large overall tonnage deposits.
    6 Feb 2011, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh, and Lynas has just updated their REO basket again, with a new price of $80.40/kilo.
    6 Feb 2011, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A factoid I wanted to plunk here before I forget about it (again).

     

    Hitachi (mine to magnet partner with MCP) owns the patent for Ne magnets until 2014...

     

    Several articles I have read inidicate a grave doubt that Hitachi would give proprietory magnet knowledge to MCP, and MCP has no such expertise in house.

     

    My read on THAT is...

     

    MCP will be supplying raw materials to a new AMP (which may or may not be an Hitachi facility), which will in turn feed into a new magnet factory...

     

    OR just enter container freight for the long trip back to Japan.

     

    I suppose one COULD view this as "mine to market", or "mine to magnet", but its got some precious timing involved which I find interesting...

     

    Hitachi's patents run out almost PRECISELY when MCP might be expected to bring their AMP on line and start actually fulfilling any Mine to Magnet plan, therefore, Hitachi's deal inked NOW seals their control over the technology, at least so far as MCP is concerned, by business agreement if not by patent.
    6 Feb 2011, 10:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Our friends down under seem to be decidedly more optimistic about Lynas this morning. A nice little 2.5% rise to A$1.815 from Friday morning's A$1.77, on close-to-average volume, was seen vs. the S&P ASX rise of only 0.11%. There's still a lot of ground to make up to intersect the 20 day SMA, but with 3 days now moving in the right direction and being above the low of 5 days ago, I believe we can see a move to at least the A$1.9x range underway. If they lead, as we've surmised might be the case, we'll see our U.S. share prices finally start the move I've been thinking should occur.

     

    I've been thinking we ought to see something along these lines since our U.S. counterpart has been stubbornly refusing to move below the 50 day SMA, on reducing trading volume - a "mini-consolidation" seemed to be occurring. Coincidentally, this happens to be right atop the 61.8% Fibonnaci re-trace of $1.81, using the low of $1.46, from 12/17/10 through the high $2.39 on 1/4/11 as the bounds.

     

    Having done a consolidation, stepped down and, apparently, done another consolidation and having a gap to fill up to $1.88, this might be the time to fill out your Lynas position or grab a block to trade around your core. But ...

     

    I can't be sure, of course. With this latest action we now have to see if any of the old trend lines are still in play or if a new tend will be established, and it's really too early to say right now. To get back into the lower trend I have been tracking, we'd need to see a rise of 14.75% to $2.10 - highly unlikely in one day. The slope is around $0.015/day, so tomorrow would be $2.115, $2.13, ... certainly reasonable that over several days that we could re-enter that old trend.

     

    If it does re-enter that range in the next few days, I will be pleasantly surprised because that means that although it didn't make it in 9 days, as the last time it broke that trend, it sure is trying. And *that* would mean we had, indeed, a longer-term reliable trend in place.

     

    Likely? I really can't see it right now. We have potential resistance at the $1.88, $1.93 (50% Fib point), $1.97. That's just too many "pause points" for me to think we'll re-enter that old trend in just a few days. I believe it'll get there, but we'll need to see what the new trend is, rather than assuming the old one is still in effect.

     

    And I have to remind myself about the report coming up on 2/9-2/10 - that'll likely render all past behavior irrelevant anyway.

     

    So, I'll not add any more thoughts about the U.S. action here.

     

    Here's the ASX results.

     

    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2011, 04:03 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I hope that you are wrong about LYC going to $1.9X....=(

     

    I WANT MORE~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    7 Feb 2011, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    That's just the next potential pause point. Whether one things in Elliot Wave Theory, Fibonacci, "resistance" and "support", "trading channels", ... we know that there are moves interrupted by various types of pauses on the way to various near and longer term destinations. How price and volume behave around these points often gives clues to possible next moves and good entry/sell points for traders or those wishing to protect profits.

     

    For *me*, right now, I'm a holder. But I like to trade blocks around my core and reduce the opportunity cost by taking some profits while I hold.

     

    So these thoughts are what I use in my decision-making process and I *hope* that they might be useful for others, whether I'm right or wrong. And if someone can see an error in my thoughts, that might help me too.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2011, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have an opinion on Great Western this morning...looking to add a block ~$1...may be moving back up from current though. If anyone wondered about my 50% sale at 1.235 a few days ago...I chickened out on the way back down after the sell - afraid I would miss big news - and bought back in at only a minimal profit-taking position. I couldn't watch closely that day (Thursday) as I was tied up and failed to determine a logical buy to set that I trusted. No big deal...but wish I had a better system. I know some of you are just sitting on those shares because of potential news and upcoming movement, but there has been a couple of pretty steep and consistent moves upward and pullback to the mean. I was pretty certain about the current level but everytime I see that very sharp climb I think....here comes the BIG news.

     

    --My problem is that I first started trading when the tech boom of the late 90's was occuring. I put a little $ in and got the impression tht things only went up in the market! I thought, wow, this is great...why doesn't everyone do this?!
    7 Feb 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Don't take this as gospel, since I've alwyas sold too early, but it's looking to me like it ought to consolidate a bit around here.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree with HTL, based on gut instinct (which means there is probably a logic train there I just can't dig out this early in the morning).

     

    The major news event this week is Lynas, which could disrupt much of the thinking in the REE space.

     

    I view about 10% of the money in GWMGF.PK as of the "hot money" variety, ie, it will flee at a random moment, like so many lemmings heading for the north sea.

     

    We could easily see this sort of change (very abrupt change) in any of these stocks, for no apparent reason, at any time.

     

    Of course, if the hot money flows your way, its a pleasant surprise...
    7 Feb 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (LYSDY.PK) tracking at $19.19...

     

    Took profits on (STZYF.PK), bought some (AVL), took profits on (GDLNF.PK), bought (DNN).
    7 Feb 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    smart move to get deeper into Avalon today!
    9 Feb 2011, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    Great Western is performing well today. It and Neo Material Tech. (NEMFF) are the two best performers in my REE portfolio.

     

    You can see an interview from last week with the Neo Mat. CEO at watch.bnn.ca/#clip325058

     

    On the same day, they interviewed Hykawy at watch.bnn.ca/#clip412129
    7 Feb 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am adding Neo to my REE tracking board, ung, and I will include them in my next series of charts. They deserve to be a regular member of the core REE/Strat. group we keep an eye on.

     

    As an aside to everyone, do post up your core REE/Strategic Mineral holdings from time to time so we can keep them on our radar screens, regardless of whether or not the rest of us are invested in them. Frankly, I am starting to include more companies which I do not particularly think are good long term investments, because some of us are doing more active daily trading.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8335) | Send Message
     
    TB, I only have 4 REE's. GWM, AVL, UURAF and now some LYSDY which I only bought a few shares to test the sell on etrade and blue sky laws. I prefer the ones closer to M&A and/or production over the longer term ones because they may not ever make it to market if they do not have a critical mineral once the others get to market.

     

    I believe it may come down to whoever gits thar fustest with the mostest, so to speek. I reserve the option of changing my mind at any moment however.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Right now, I am holding LYSCF, NOURF and ALKEF. I have a fairly large pile of "dry powder" after some profit-taking and am lying in wait like a Viking along a Norman path leading to the castle.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    What would be your buy@ for Neo if not already in? I had been watching it and then stopped for the most part...I had been watching it around 8 hoping to buy <8 and failed

     

    And, has anyone seen some recent targets for Avalon?
    7 Feb 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have no target data for Neo yet, but I just bought back into Avalon (and sold out of Stans Energy), if that gives you any idea.

     

    I expect the Lynas action this week to roil the REE waters quite a bit (and that could happen regardless which way their news goes)...

     

    If they have a catastrophic update, then we can expect their price to drop like a rock and MCP (and certain other) stocks to get a lift.

     

    Of course, the opposite might also happen...

     

    The headlines that keep echoing in my head are the ones that hailed MCP as the winner (post lockbox event #1), and sought to bury all their competition.

     

    What if Lynas counterpunches?

     

    If I was Curtis, I would hold the video conference inside the new processing plant, with it roaring away in the background...

     

    Walking along the final output concentratrion area, I'd yell into the microphone, answering questions and recounting what is happening in the background...

     

    Then I'd wrap up the meeting standing on the day's concentrated oxides in big containers, and start talking about how many billions of dollars the new facility will be producing per year...

     

    UNTIL the new Malaysian LAMP (cutaway to video of the ongoing construction project there), is ready by, say, early June, at which time Lynas would be the first ex-China company producing REE metals from mine to market...

     

    And the new production numbers would be XX billions per year...

     

    UNTIL early 2013, when we plan to DOUBLE output from the Mount Weld facility to 44,000 metric tonnes per year, incorporating the higher enriched heavy rare earth oxides from the Duncan Deposit located just (he gestures) beyond those walls.

     

    Smiles.

     

    [Take that, MolyCorp, he thinks].

     

    Theatrical, I know, but whaddaya expect, I'm a scifi guy. When MCP did the talking smack thing, if I were Curtis, I'd be getting all Chronicles of Riddick on them.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    He should have a pat answer ready as to why he sold his shares.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, though I suspect he can't really tell anyone, because he used the money to prop up one of his other businesses, which are not in the advanced stage reached by Lynas (User mentioned these in a past post and provided some links, I looked into them, and I detected some clear signs that this thinking may well be correct...)

     

    If we DO have a cataclysm from this corporate update, Curtis is likely to be answering some hard questions from the ASX authorities, whose rules are different from ours in this regard (and more unforgiving, being based upon black letter law rather than "regulatory judgement" like our suspect system).

     

    If the Update is the upbeat report it should be, those stock sales and their importance will vanish like a drop of ree concentrate in an ex-Soviet (we-don't-care-about no stinking radioactive pollution) Kyrzgystan REE processing plant
    7 Feb 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Damn, TB. You should start producing conference call videos (or whatever they might be called).
    7 Feb 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    I agree that an upbeat tone would help. He could suggest that the difficult phase in the company's progress is close to ending and that the easy money is starting to roll in. Everyone is invited to share in the bounty.
    That would be in keeping with the present economic climate occurring in Western Australia where the mine is located.
    www.watoday.com.au/bus...
    7 Feb 2011, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Overall mood on the markets in Australia (particularly among the overall mining crowd) is somber, due to the floods, the cyclone damage, and the ongoing loss of world markets due to their customers belatedly learning what those funny latin phrases like force majeure mean...

     

    Even companies located as far away from the water overdose as possible are swimming in the same pond on the stock markets over there, and the government is making scary noises about reacting to the loss of revenue (like all governments, they had already counted every egg as a fully grown chicken) by adding MORE taxes onto the mining sector, adding insult to injury.
    7 Feb 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    I think the floods are akin to our Katrina shock in Summer 2005. By Spring 2006 the economy was in recovery from it so that most people were concentrating on the ongoing real estate boom.
    7 Feb 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not a bad analogy at all. They are more focused on preserving a strong currency (and interest rates), and operate as a commodity export focused economy rather than a consumer/debt economy, but the picture is not that out of focus.

     

    Impact of Katrina, however, did NOT tip us into recession, whereas Australia went from +5% growth to -.5% growth pretty much instantaneously, a more severe reaction repesenting their much smaller economy reacting to a key setback.

     

    Then again, I am expecting them to bounce back quicker, IF they can retain their export contracts (now endangered, both by the real effects of the floods, and by the reaction of the government to same).
    7 Feb 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    Your thoughts are well taken, TB. Natural disasters are certainly a risk factor provoking a dead weight on public and private expenditures.
    As a Californian, I could offer an historic example.
    The Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire happened in Spring 1906. The cleanup from that episode soaked up tremendous amounts of risk capital from the Eastern Seaboard. As time went by that started to impact the credit and equity markets so that by Summer 1907 investors were feeling the squeeze. This was cited as one of the prime causes of the Banker's Panic of 1907 in the autumn of that year.
    So, yes, I think it is prudent to be aware of what the (very liberal) Australian government does about this situation and what burden it might have on the markets.
    7 Feb 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » These situations are never simple.
    7 Feb 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    So far, so good, but still too early to tell.
    www.watoday.com.au/bre...
    7 Feb 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ung, have you ever visited robert.b.ferguson's Nanotech blog? It seems to me that there is a common thread between our two blogs as relates to Neo and several other plays we track in that space. Recent LED film quality control advances (which I posted to his blog over the last few days) may have a strong long term effect upon some REE-related companies.

     

    I don't have the link to robert's blog handy in this screen, but he has posted upstream on this blog, and his instablog list can be accessed via his profile page, of course.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    Will check it out. Excellent information at Seeking Alpha and it's good to read advice from seasoned investors.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    I bought Neo Mat. at $8.10 over a month ago, but it has bounced around a surprising amount since then. Google finance tells me it dropped to 7.68 several days after I bought and has hit 9.19 since. I'm new at this.

     

    BTW, I find Google finance to be super! I bought Investoscope software for my Mac and love the way it allows me to follow my investments throughout the day.
    7 Feb 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those who may have missed it, (STZYF.PK) opened higher this morning, I sold my shares, and it is now down for the day and dropping fast. I could re-enter at a steep discount right now, but I will wait and see how it goes for a few more days. As one of the "other" vertically integrated REE mining restarts, I believe it may take a hit if Lynas announces upbeat news Wednesday, and a trading opp. in the $2.9x or $2.8x area could manifest.
    7 Feb 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The afternoon profit taking cycle has hit, and anyone who missed the morning cycle has a second chance today... At least for day trades or adding a few selected shares, the next hour or two could be a place to watch...

     

    My immediate target is (QSURD.PK) which is showing weakness, but not near my Buy@ point just yet.
    7 Feb 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    T.B...can I assume you raised your buy@ price for AVL ...post political news and press?
    7 Feb 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes indeed, though not by that much. Don't misconstrue my buy this morning of AVL, this is (probably) a trade, not a long term investment. I expect volatility this week.

     

    ...And I expect to be cycling back out of AVL soon, perhaps tomorrow, LOL.

     

    I anticipated some positive (if vague) media exposure for AVL this week, and they already got some CNBC face time. Their CEO is "out there", and this could yield them some media-induced upward momentum...

     

    Or not.

     

    I am keeping this one on a very tight string.

     

    To be clear, my Buy@ targets have a very brief shelf-life, even for me, and they don't really apply to opportunistic trades.

     

    I am indeed looking to enter AVL at a much lower price as a potential core addition to my portfolio, but I may trade the stock multiple times between then and now.
    7 Feb 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Confirming my thoughts. I owned AVL at a decent, lower price and wish I'd held. Now wanting only to get back in lower for a longer-term core holding. As you stated earlier today, at any time, news can come to change the landscape for one of these. I considered Avl mostly overbought relative to peers, but events of last week or so made this one look different to me...even though (on a valuation basis) I'm not sure it is really warranted. I prefer Quest due to the heavies and the upcoming (I assume) listing. Another stock I owned and became impatient with....would consider at lower price.
    7 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    AVL is one of my core holdings. I am looking for a bigger upside surprise to come. REE is a good stock to buy and sell.
    8 Feb 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Continuing to watch Stans Energy (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), which has indeed dropped back to $2.9x...

     

    Could easily hit $2.8x this afternoon...

     

    I believe it could go lower still, particularly by Wednesday...
    7 Feb 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » STZYF at $2.86...

     

    Still watching, not inclined to pull the trigger, probably let this one stew overnight...
    7 Feb 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1544) | Send Message
     
    Back in town.

     

    Re STZYF, I love a parade, Triple, especially one that rolls downhill and allows me re-entry after a sell. A classic 50% retrace would take it down to $2, but I won't be greedy. I expect to nibble around $2.50 and pile on if / as it hits $2.25.

     

    Of course, if it doesn't, there are plenty of other fishies in the sea...
    7 Feb 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi, Joseph, welcome home...

     

    Yep, this one is a trade for me. I bailed perfect this morning, sold into the morning pop, right before the crash. I rarely time one so exquisitely, but hey, even a blind turtle finds a goodie now and then!

     

    I'm was thinking it would break down slower, but its sitting right where I thought it might (in 2 or 3 days, LOL).

     

    I'm thinking your number is better, for Lynas' announcement Wednesday (if upbeat) could pound Stans and even put a dent in MCP. If the Hot Money flows to Lynas this week, buying opp time might arrive in less highlighted corners of the REE space...
    7 Feb 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8335) | Send Message
     
    I noted last week that Stansberry and Associates were pumping this one with talk of a 8000% return. Looks like the dump is now in full effect chewing the hell out of the little minnows, they lured in, who are now running as fast as they can.

     

    Poor bastards now getting poorer.
    8 Feb 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Afraid so, DG. Those minnows should be reading our blog here.
    8 Feb 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Added to my position in (SRSR) @ $0.03 at the close.
    7 Feb 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So, how profitable is Niobium?
    7 Feb 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    It closed yesterday on the LME @ $17.80 LB. Margins vary by producer. China doesn't have much if any.
    7 Feb 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Brazil is a major player, has the single richest deposit...

     

    Oddly enough, Lynas is sitting on the world's second richest deposit, adjacent to their current mine (on the same property, just not where the mine is being worked right now). Lynas' niobium is mixed with rich deposits of tantalum and titanium both.

     

    They aren't mining these now, since their REE prospects are even better.
    7 Feb 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Quantum (QREDF) is still assessing the Nebraska deposit that they purchased some time ago and Sarisa (SRSR) is doing like wise. (SRSR) also has gold and both are in North America with reasonable infrastructure. Now the questions are related to EPA and Canadian permits.
    7 Feb 2011, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Some pretty good action on the ASX right now.

     

    LYC:LYSCF +0.025 w/volume of 5.5 million
    NTU:NOURF +0.03 w/volume of 800k
    ALK:ALKEF +0.025 w/volume of 370k
    7 Feb 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Alkane on hold in Australia.

     

    CEO was in Japan the last 2 weeks.

     

    Alkane asked for trading halt until Friday Australia (Thursday USA).

     

    Halt reason: "capital raising". No other comment.

     

    Suspect big announcement on Japan funding.

     

    USA guys: If you can buy ALKEF in USA, I would do it prior to the announcement. Could be big upside pop?

     

    The CEO told me that he would not sell out to a country or major even for a 70 percent premium.

     

    I tried to encourage to go double size up front, like MCP and LYC.

     

    Looking forward to story Friday Australia time.

     

    I have 260,000 shares ALK.
    9 Feb 2011, 01:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's really strong for NTU...

     

    I was thinking of adding more today, but just did not pull the trigger...

     

    But good news, all the same.

     

    Tracking for today showed some interesting trends. We had quite a few in the win column, though most of the numbers were mild:

     

    (HUDRF.PK) up 6.34%
    (DCHAF.PK) up 6.33%
    (AVL) up 5.38%
    (ALKEF.PK) up 4.35%
    (DNN) up 4.03%
    (LYSCF.PK) up 3.28%
    (RBY) up 1.83%
    (REMX) up 1.78%
    (PMNHF.PK) up 1.65%
    (TIE) up 1.03%
    (GWMGF.PK) up .94%
    (NOURF.PK) up .78%
    (GMO) up .73%
    (PNPFF.PK) up .50%
    (NEMFF.PK) up .23%
    (MTCEF.PK) up .15%
    (MCP) up .02%

     

    And our contestants who did not do so well. This group includes most of our Uranium plays today, including high flier URRE. In this case I would interpret the flat performance of UCore as a sign of strength.

     

    (UURAF.PK) down .02%
    (TC) down .07%
    (TASXF.PK) down .74%
    (QSURD.PK) down 1.26%
    (ARAFF.PK) down 1.47%
    (CHGI.OB) down 1.59%
    (GDLNF.PK) down 2.38%
    (UEC) down 2.88%
    (NATUF.PK) down 3.31%
    (QREDF.PK) down 3.62%
    (URRE) down 3.89%
    (EMMCF.PK) down 7.2%
    (STZYF.PK) down 12.65%
    7 Feb 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I think the days of adding NOURF under 0.50 are over. If/when it drops below 0.60, I might add some more. However, I am waiting on Great Western and Stans.
    7 Feb 2011, 07:56 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB and Bukdow,
    NTU is a good prospect with a strong long term future. But some of the price action in NOURF is strange to me and the volume is sometimes 0. It also trades as much as ten cents apart which is odd for a $0.60 stock. I think this will be a good stock for the future and I'm holding some right now, but I'm waiting for it to mature before I add more.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    thanks for the tracking report. My buy list has been consistent.
    They are:
    AVL - Top buy - nice rise with good liquidity
    LYSCF - cheap to own and looking for explosive rise
    MCP - least favorite

     

    Don't forget REE. good trading stock up 2.3%
    This is a side kick buy.

     

    STZYF is pretty much over with its run. This stock will be cut in half soon.
    GWMGF is also in trouble. Be careful trading this 1. Daytrading is the safest thing to do if you are targeting to buy.
    8 Feb 2011, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Why do you say that about GWMGF?
    8 Feb 2011, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    You will see why i said that. Just watch GWMGF
    8 Feb 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    realornot: Greetings. If you have actionable intel regarding a stock please share it with the group as we all benefit together here. Cryptic remarks like this one don't help our investment assessments. Thanks.
    8 Feb 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    You know what they say about money and bullshit, right? Talk or walk, pardner.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Hello Robert,

     

    It is the falling momentum of GWMGF you got to watch out for. It is a stock that you can day trade with. Holding it overnight is bit dangerous if you are long. No Cryptic message intended. Hope this will clear up my message.
    Also, look at my call on STZYF. It is continue to loose big. This is a falling rock.
    r/n
    8 Feb 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9912) | Send Message
     
    Real: I would fully expect Great Western to do a little "momentum" break, or possibly better yet put, suffer from some profit taking. It's only gone up over 100% in a little over a month. When that hnappens, a lot of shrewd players sell half and then let the free money roll.

     

    I'm holding.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I'm on house money (GWMGF) with a cost basis of $0.15. I'm waiting to see what happens so I'll just watch it run up or down. I doubt it will get that low again ever and will still show a profit even after a split should that occur.
    8 Feb 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    very nice. You can build many houses next to your own house with that low price.
    8 Feb 2011, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Gwmgf has a very nice upward trend actually...and has consistently risen, pulled back to the most recent mean...sat...and risen again. No falling rocks here fellas. I will continue to add on these pullbacks.
    9 Feb 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9912) | Send Message
     
    Trip: Have ever heard of Mesa Uranium (CNDX:MSA.V)?

     

    A no debt, uranium, potash and lithium explorer.

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    7 Feb 2011, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I was looking at it recently - or reading about it, rather, can't remember the precise details...

     

    (MSAJF.PK), $.89, down 3.49% today, in line with the sector, which had an off day...

     

    Did I look over this one back last year when I was looking for lithium plays? Hmmmm, can't remember, but I'm liking it at first glance this time...

     

    Thanks, Maya, its on my radar screen now.
    7 Feb 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    What should we make of the early ASX performance of Lynas today in Oz? Strong open but significant drop there if I am seeing correctly. Will we be able to get a read on upcoming call from today's ASX action??? What did that General have to say? Let me see.....
    7 Feb 2011, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that that Lynas will have its conference call to discuss the 12/31 quarter call at 6PM Wednesday in Sydney -- 2AM ET Tuesday night for us in the US.

     

    The stock is probably just meandering while stockholders await the Q&A.
    7 Feb 2011, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Maybe this has something to do with the Lynas situation in ASX.

     

    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    7 Feb 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's right in line with the overall situation I have been seeing. They are going through a weather/disaster-induced "flash recession", and that will mess up equity markets in a country.

     

    Before all this happened, as I tracked Lynas (and more sporadically, the other Aussie stocks I have an interest in), I would frequently see the ASX action leading the pink sheet/ADR action onver here. Our markets were a punctuation on what their markets started, more often than not.

     

    Now we are seeing the relatively light volume here (the pinks and ADRs only trade a small fraction of the volume traded by Lynas, for instance, on their home exchange) tugging the stocks along most days after they sleep walk through the ASX.

     

    This is an odd situation, but not without precedence. The last time I saw this was when the Asian Contagion swept through the financials in Asia.

     

    I have been pointing this factor out for quite a while now - the flooding, cyclone and disruption in the Australian economy IS having an effect on their equity markets, including companies not directly damaged, effected (or even damp).

     

    Thus far the American markets, though operating indirectly and with relatively small volumes, have managed to drag the ASX along...

     

    I suspect this will continue, since barring actual bad news for, NTU, ARU, LCY and ALK (the stocks we have been tracking), the picture seen over here (of these companies working within a world market scheme) is more accurate than what the natives are seeing through images of flooded mines, wrecked processing plants, damaged business relationships, and lost jobs.

     

    Its wierd, and seems more than a bit schizoid, but its the real deal...

     

    Assuming there is not new news in Australia that explains things more intimately for these companies.
    7 Feb 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just checked the ASX listings, and they are in line with the recent trend, far as I can tell:

     

    LYC down .55%
    NTU up 2.44%
    ALK up .86%
    ARU down .37%

     

    Not scintillating performance, but nothing to get upset about at this point.
    7 Feb 2011, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the economic damage assessments are now being made. It sounds like they are taking the news okay.
    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    news.smh.com.au/breaki...
    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    www.treasury.gov.au/do...
    8 Feb 2011, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good. I was hoping the initial panic would subside when they finally started to dry out and could get into the key areas to look things over.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11135) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm I think you should consider copper a strategic mineral. One that is rising significantly in expectation of inflation as well.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (181) | Send Message
     
    Do agree especially when there was indication that the middle class flat owners in China are not happy with the materials used in their existing homes. They will be using copper plumbing in the new construction on the luxury flats and the replacement market will also be huge. Actually this is sooner that what I had expected.
    I think copper prices will be up there for the next decade unless the next financial tsunami gets here before that. But again that will really provide very good opportunity to load up on copper stocks.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX +0.38% Lynas +0.27%, +A$0.005.

     

    Yesterday in the U.S, Lynas had a gap up open ($1.84 - $1.86), which will need to be filled. If we mimic the ASX action, we'll likely fill it today. My short-term prognosis would still be on the cautiously bullish side because we had a rising volume on yesterday's move up and strength, in both price and volume, was maintained until almost 1:00 P.M. before weakening was seen as profits were taken. And technical indicators, but for one, are all neutral or making more bullish turns.

     

    But, as mentioned in comment yesterday, we did pause at the Fibonnaci re-trace of $1.93 (actually, only made $1.92, but drawing lines on charts is not all that precise, so I've got to consider the 1 penny differential inconsequential), the 50% mark.

     

    Further, the upper Bollinger and 20 day SMA looks to dampen upward momentum today, so I doubt we'll see much more than $1.94 or $1.95 today, *unless*, as happened with (CSPT), the anticipation of the report coming is providing a lot of bullish sentiment. But I didn't see enough volume and price increase yesterday to believe that is the case.

     

    If the ASX is any indicator, and my assessment is correct, I think we'll see a low around $1.82, at the worst, until late in the day. Then we'll just need to see if there's any profit taking still going on that might drive it lower. If the gap hasn't been filled before that happens, I believe that's when we'll get the gap filled.

     

    Here's the ASX final results.

     

    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    I am buying more of it with this pull back. The up potential is quite nice for this mini-tiny-small stock.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Good move I think. I mentioned yesterday that I thought we had a good entry/add point. I'm planning on adding *trading* blocks around my core somewhere in this area.

     

    I'd like to do it either ~$1.84, which would close our gap, or near the $1.18 Fib 50%, depending on charts, report tomorrow, ...

     

    If it should move back to the $1.6x area, I'll be adding to my core position, assuming there's no negative in the report.

     

    Of course, if there's not a negative in the report, we won't see $1.6x and I'll have to think about whatever the new scenario is.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    S/b $1.81, not $1.18 (although $1.18 would be great).

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    During the Lynas conference call tonight, wouldn't it be great if NC announces that everything is on schedule and that they have embarked on a path to get listed on the NYSE or AMEX? It would sure move things out of the doldrums.
    8 Feb 2011, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Can't American investors buy Australian shares through their brokers?
    I wouldn't want them to list in America not because i do not like America but because it would further dilute the shares.
    8 Feb 2011, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    I can, but I would have to open more accounts and move money around. For me right now its not worth the trouble.

     

    Other providers probably do better than my provider in this regard. I think someone mentioned Schwab?

     

    Bill
    8 Feb 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Different platforms act differently. I can trade stocks on the ASX gratis but pay a healthy fee on most European exchanges.
    8 Feb 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    omgwen,
    It would not be dilutive. LYSDY is a Type I (non-listed) ADR. If they list it just the way it is there is no dilution and it would trade listed. The receipts would still cover the same shares. For liquidity purposes, they might combine both OTC's into a single listed ADR, but that is not hard or uncommon. Either way, it would be like lighting a rocket under the share price. I agree this is a good time to let this catalyst out to emphasize the distance between the Lynas story and the rest of the REE space.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Schwab hits you with the ASX fees. I believe ETrade does not.

     

    OMG, Lynas gaining a prime American exchange slot would not dilute any shares (beyond their 1.6x billion already out there), so the capital base and shareholder value would not be affected (other than the initial costs of the listing, which is hundreds of thousands of dollars, but not anything that would make a big deal to Lynas at this point).
    8 Feb 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Etrade use to have a fee (I dropped my account). I use Interactive Brokers and I am very happy. I pay a monthly ASX fee, but it is very small and it's stated up front. I am very happy with the account. The platform is simple but the system is very fair and efficient.
    8 Feb 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the clarifications Tripleback. I learnt something new today.
    9 Feb 2011, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    In that case if there is no dilution i would certainly welcome LYC to be fully listed in the American markets BUT unfortunately this question was brought up to Nick Curtis in today's conference call and he says he feels its sufficient and he see no need to list in America. He also mentioned that American investor should have no problems buying Lynas shares in Australia IF they really want it and it should be no problem for institutional investors.
    9 Feb 2011, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. There is no problem buying LYSCF stocks in the US, I own 12,650 shares. However, for each order I have to pay a $50 fee which, understandably, annoys many. But, my dad always said, "Don't trip over dollars to pick up nickels".
    9 Feb 2011, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Wow that's annoying =/
    9 Feb 2011, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • renderus
    , contributor
    Comments (146) | Send Message
     
    Alert:

     

    Alkane is halted in Australia. Reason given: "capital raising". Halted until Friday morning premarket in Australia (Thursday in USA). I suspect good news, Japan deal? Probably pop upside.

     

    Is it still trading in the USA as ALKEF?

     

    Consider adding more, if still trading in USA?

     

    9 Feb 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (ALKEF): I see bids. $1.17/$1.20 right now. I'm going to dip a toe in and expand my horizons a bit.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8335) | Send Message
     
    Chinese interest rate hike tanked all markets last time. Could be a sell day or buying opportunity. Keep your eyes open.
    8 Feb 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9912) | Send Message
     
    I'll be buying or adding, Guns, if there's any dip at all. This market seems unstoppable.
    8 Feb 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    That's because "printing presses" with lots of "heavyweights" behind them have a lot of mass. And you know a body in motion tends to remain in motion.

     

    March will tell a tale of some kind I think.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I am wondering if the old adage, "Sell in May and Walk Away" will hold true this year.
    8 Feb 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    We're psychic! Not a minute ago I was thinking of the same thing.

     

    If it is in play, and I think it is as the "big money" has not suffered the way "Joe Plumber" has, it could be really pernicious because a nice little fruit is scheduled to dry up and fall off the tree just a couple months prior. The fruit?

     

    POMO(granate), which grows on the Fed tree.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    This year. "Sell in May and Run Away" Too much hype from FED.
    8 Feb 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Mayascribe i TOTALLY agree with you brother, but try to be not desperate and buy on first fall, the lower it goes the better it is for you and me.
    9 Feb 2011, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.ibcadvancedalloys....

     

    (IAALF.PK) IBC Rare Metals, berrylium experts, plus interesting tie into potential new nuclear fuel method...
    8 Feb 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1544) | Send Message
     
    There's a good interview with the CEO in the current issue of Resource World Magazine (which you can reach from a link at the company's website.) Resource World throws mostly softballs and is aimed at investors more than industry professionals, but it's still a good introduction.

     

    After I left active duty and before I started my own firm, I was a wet-behind-the-ears broker with Kidder Peabody. One of my earliest (and most gracious) clients was Orpheus Quartullo, who had just sold his American Beryllium shares to Loral. I learned a great deal (for back then) about some of the strategic metals from him. A la the pairing of beryllium and uranium oxides, I believe we have only just scratched the surface in discovering new applications for many of them...
    8 Feb 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    Agree with a whole lot. Look at the climbing number of the smart phones and LCD TVs sold the past quarter and all the upcoming future smart devices. We are totally dependent on REE for years to come. This is a RARE Golden opportunities for all of us. Ride the surging tides!
    8 Feb 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I posted that same link a few minutes ago, Joseph. Thanks loads, and yes, I picked out that part about the Uranium oxide/Bery. link, too, interesting that the company has the rights to the research.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2193) | Send Message
     
    The IBC beryllium mining claim to located down the Weiss Highway several dozen miles to the east of Great Western's Deep Sands rare earth mining claim. The Weiss Highway goes through the Deep Sands near the isolated hamlet of Callao. The IBC site is situated next to Brush Wellman's huge beryllium mine. The formal name is Brush Engineered Materials, BW on the New York Stock Exchange.
    If Great Western ever develops their Deep Sands project, they would probably have to cart materials on the Weiss Highway east to the Brush Highway then east again to the railroad junction near the town of Delta. Since beryllium dust is toxic, they would have to take some precautions. The railroad connects Salt Lake City with Las Vegas.
    www.ens-newswire.com/e...
    8 Feb 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    STZYF is sitting at ~$2.40... good buying opp?
    8 Feb 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would wait. It could drop a lot more, particularly if Lynas has good news tonight.

     

    I sold all mine yesterday morning (posted it on this blog at the time).

     

    If Lynas busts their call, Stans might be a play tomorrow morning.

     

    My thinking is that the Hot Money in the REE sector is starting to clue into the fact that there are only 4 companies with existing facilities to create a fully vertically integrated operation: GWM, MCP, Lynas and Stans. I won't go back through the various logic trains, those have all been exhaustively examined in prior blogs, but anyway, good news for ONE of the 4 might translate into BAD news for the others (given that its a race to get to market and sew up customers)

     

    MCP with their lockbox orgy of promises recently put a tsunami wave into the tiny REE pond, and one of the "4" actually announcing real REO production is likely to do the same thing (perhaps even more so, even Hot Money lemmings might notice the difference between "plan" and "real").

     

    Anyway, Stans was the recent recipient of a similar pop (and much pumping) when they finally sealed the $5.5mm deal for their mothballed ex-soviet processing plant. That pop has now run out of gas (plus they are getting hammered by some competing pumpers working for other REE plays, which was inevitable), so this trade is in flux. The proper position (imo) with Stans is to wait on the sidelines until some new life is breathed into the stock (and after any incipient announcements are made by their closest competition).
    8 Feb 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on (GDLNF.PK), Bought initial investment in (MSAJF.PK) and (IAALF.PK).

     

    Market is sluggish to my eye for the REEs, some strategic stocks are lively, Uranium sector is settling down, I never took time to track down what might have distubed them yesterday, if anyone knows post it up...

     

    6pm est tonight, Lynas conference call...
    8 Feb 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Isn't Lynas 2am est tonight (as in closing time :-)) and 5:30pm Wednesday?
    8 Feb 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    2 A.M here in the U.S. according to umgawah's link above. Sounds about right.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crap, my notes must be in error, I can't even adjust to daylight savings timie, it puts me into jet lag...
    8 Feb 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is 6pm Sidney time tonight. 2am Eastern time tonight.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. My margin(al) notes say the same thing, I just can't translate them without a 4th cup of coffee in the morning.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    No worries tripleblack. Great Blog!
    There's also a second call tomorrow 5:30pm Eastern and that is Th 9:30 am Sidney time.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    Streamed live at www.thomson-webcast.ne...... 97b046b471cc1d7e006388cb and will be available on the Lynas website 4 hours later.
    8 Feb 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (916) | Send Message
     
    The proper link is below:

     

    www.thomson-webcast.ne...
    8 Feb 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    Terrific! I was hoping to be able to catch the first presentation live!

     

    Thank you - I'm now registered.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Feb 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks ung!
    8 Feb 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    What, miss my shot of Bundy Bear with my mates tonight? Not a chance.
    8 Feb 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Everyone please go to the new Concentrator:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    8 Feb 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Made a classic "flag" pattern now, a pause in the trend. Trend normally resumes in short order. Not assured, but fairly reliable. Time-frame is usually "short", whatever that is, before resuming the trend.

     

    In this case, s/b up.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17886) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): BTW, this is also a "reversion to the mean", ~40% re-trace from recent run start and *may* consolidate a bit before moving.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Feb 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13507) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Morning, HTL...

     

    Do you know you are posting right below my usual "please go to the new concentrator" link?

     

    Good insight for Great Western though, as usual, thanks...
    9 Feb 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
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