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tripleblack
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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    Here is a different twist to the Greenland situation mentioned at the bottom of this short article on navigation.
    www.themoscowtimes.com...
    The geopolitical speculation on this would be that it would tend to assist the Greenland miners several years from now if their mines are closer to development by then.
    GDLNF Greenland Minerals and Energy
    HUDRF Hudson Resources
    RAMJF Ram Resources
    www.miningweekly.com/a...
    www.ramresources.com.a...
    10 Feb 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cool links, Valley Boy. I am paleo-long Greenland and Hudson both, though I don't tout them here very often. I mention Greenland often as a long shot Uranium/REE play, and Hudson as the counter-GDLNF play (Greenland REEs, but not so much political U risk).

     

    Hudson is also in the diamond mining business, of course. So both of them have a dual approach going on, with emphasis currently on REEs for obvious reasons.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    My best guess is that it must be European investors who are mainly interested in the Greenland plays. I'll check on European opinion about them sometime in the future.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In the past I have seen some interesting bifurcation in the Euro-Ree trades. One group is interested in the REE plays that also have a rich Uranium deposit, since Uranium is shooting up in price more than REE's right now, and the demand (France and China, for instance) is high for Uranium. This group likes plays like (GDLNF.PK).

     

    The other group (I think of them as the Green Ree fans) like plays like Tasman (TASXF.PK) which has an unusually low percentage of radioactives in the REE deposit, or Hudson (HUDRF.PK) for the same reason.

     

    When the green energy news is particularly strong in the world news, I have seen an impact on REE stocks which are NOT associated with lots of Uranium or Thorium.

     

    Just another of the wierd quirks of the REE space.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the links Valley, Boy. Some useful intel there. I have a moderate position in (GDLNF) on the shelf until further notice.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    REMX is the sloppiest ETF ever! It has very little to do with rare earth. Most rare earth stocks down and REMX is up. Glad I do my own research and never owned it.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its only worth owning for the Strategic Metal exposure (which is its majority composition) and some of the REE/Strat. Metal Asian traders, which are sometimes interesting.

     

    I've written about this one in the past several times. Their minimum capital standards are just high enough to clear lot of REE junior explorers (which is of course much of the REE space), while the big Chinese REE producers are now deeply buried inside iron, steel, and aluminum giants which non-Chinese can't trade anyway (a perfect setup for a Cartel, of course).
    10 Feb 2011, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (MSAJF.PK) just spiked through the roof, up 36.62%.

     

    Holy cats. Glad I bought a bunch at $.95. Yesterday.

     

    I believe someone was asking me yesterday why I didn't buy (UURAF.PK)...

     

    Thanks Maya.
    10 Feb 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Indeed. Thanks, Maya.
    10 Feb 2011, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    MTCEF has started to get some traction from its latest drilling results issued this morning. I don't know enough geology to interpret it, but apparently the market likes it. On the TSX the stock is up $0.1 (2%) with heavy volume of over 600,000 shares so far.
    10 Feb 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good, my (MTCEF.PK) was getting rusty, just sitting there.

     

    OK, I bailed out of (QSURD.PK) where I got in, at $6.21, and now I'm back in Stans at $2.06. Joe Shaeffer mentioned $1.99 as a good bottom on Stans, and he was right, it just touched there, though I was not ready to pounce...

     

    You snooze, you lose...

     

    Heck, even (AVL) is up a little this afternoon...

     

    We'll see how this goes. The revolving trade door is swinging again...
    10 Feb 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    It's the first time in a while where Lynas has shown this much relative strength in the face of a overall rare earth sell down. Nicholas Curtis, your investor calls are bringing stability to a stock in a volatile sector. True investors in Lynas love that.
    10 Feb 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (GWMGF): Being convinced that the consolidation is very near over, added 3K of Lynas and 5K of GWMGF today, $1.91 and $0.99 respectively.

     

    I've learned not to worry about $0.01 or $0.03 more than the lows - which used to concern me.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those stinking pennies can drive a man crazy. I just vacillated behind a neat call for Stans at $1.99 by Joseph Shaeffer (who hit it a few minutes later, right on the nose) and had to settle for $2.06.

     

    But does that annoy me?

     

    (Yes).
    10 Feb 2011, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. It will be back there @ $1.99. Those at pump and dump central will be putting the spin machine in high gear to minimize all but Molly (MCP). I'm going to be watching for tomorrow. Fridays are always soooo much fun on the big board.
    10 Feb 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    YeeHAW! Just checked my execution notice and got GWMGF in one of my accounts @ $0.98. :-))

     

    Unfortunately, the wrong one! My wife's paid $0.99! :-((

     

    Bad Ju-ju that!

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I've lost many a $100s over a .01.
    10 Feb 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Don't tell her and you will be fine.
    10 Feb 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): I do believe we'll see as breakout late today or tomorrow. Very large buy imbalance @ $1.91/$1.92 right now and nobody's really willing to budge on price. So today is a low volume one resulting in pent up demand that should break rapidly and hugely to the upside.

     

    We've seen $1.93 already today and there's not a lot of markets lined up at that level yet.

     

    $1.92 is almost done for right now.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    For a somewhat different POV.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    10 Feb 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF):2/9: "GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP APPOINTS MOHAMED MADHI AS RARECO PRESIDENT"

     

    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...

     

    "Great Western Minerals Group Renews Contract With Investor Relations Firm"

     

    www.streetinsider.com/...

     

    HardToLove
    10 Feb 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Seems they (GWMGF) refuse to be counted out.
    10 Feb 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK folks, added the charts and article to the top of the page!
    10 Feb 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    Did anyone read John Kaiser's recent review of Arafura? The lack of disclosure really bothers him. Overall, he seems to favor the canadian rare earths (QSURD.) I believe he stated that Arafura could have a peak PPS of $16.00.
    He also had some weird doom & gloom in regards to people just giving up the tech that reguires rare earths until the short fall in rare earths are replenished. He said this could work in favor to those miners that are close to production and that "all hell will break loose" in 2011. I may have misread his analysis.
    10 Feb 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think you got it right.

     

    Some things that might be involved, random thought-wise...

     

    Lets look at what those REEs do before we decide to just give them up until we can get more...

     

    Electronics of all kinds, flat screens, cell phones, pda's, tablets, ereaders, computers, permanent magnets (for everything from audio speakers to electric cars to turbines), catalysts for refineries, polishing compounds, the odd high tech weapon system...

     

    Then we have the things that flow from those industries. Millions of jobs, hundreds of billions of dollars, and modern industrialized society as we know it.

     

    Cool. Roll us back to a low rent renaissance festival existance because of some commodities we can certainly dig out of the ground, concentrate and refine (as Lynas is about to prove)???

     

    He must be kidding.
    10 Feb 2011, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I read his anlysis as more focused on uncertainty about Arafura's numbers because of the much looser Austalian regulations. He isn't down on ree companies in general. He has had very positive things to say about QSURD, TASXF md MTCEF. I personally think he has a valid point. There are enough uncertainities in this sector wthout worrying about whether the company is putting a spin on its disclosures. Other than in and out trades i stick to minng companies subject to Canadian regulations..
    10 Feb 2011, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So, even though he dislikes the lack of disclosure, he likes the stock, I would assume...a $16 pps?
    And, btw, sorry about Meta dipping a bit after your recent add...it is because I started a position there I'm sure!
    11 Feb 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, saw something in my accounts I've never seen before. A day with all the usual back and forth, and I end with precisely the same overall balance. To the dollar. Wierd.

     

    Took profits on (REMX) today, sold (QSURD) at the same price entered yesterday, and bought (STZYF) at $2.06.

     

    Stans closed at $2.29, we'll see how tomorrow goes.
    10 Feb 2011, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.ree-investor.com/s...

     

    Extensive list of REE stocks, with links to them.
    10 Feb 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    There are some more Australian and New Zealand names to augment the ree investor list from this website, too.
    www.raremetalinvestor....
    10 Feb 2011, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • aussiereader5
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I crunched some numbers on Lynas
    The graph represents an attempt at estimating share price depending on the basket price for the rare earths they produce.
    It assumes a doubling of the estimated production costs to $20 PER Kg. The estimates are therefore conservative.

     

    Multiples based on 3 different P/E ratios are presented.

     

    Basket price USD 10xE 12xE 14xE
    $100 4.0 5.30 5.90
    80 3.1 4.0 4.50
    60 2.2 2.7 3.12
    40 1.1 1.4 1.67
    30 0.55 0.7 0.85

     

    Lynas is trading on a forward P/E of 6 assuming that the current basket price remains at $80

     

    I hope this is a help.
    11 Feb 2011, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Hi Aussie, So what's the bottom line? I don't understand the numbers. Can you please help explain them to me in layman terms please?
    11 Feb 2011, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • aussiereader5
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, I was unable to plot as a table. Lynas current share price represents fair value at a basket price for REE of about $50/kg based on 2012 production of 9000 tonnes. If the value of the 'basket of REE' they produce is above this figure as it is at the moment and stays there, Lynas share price is undervalued and if it is below this number it is overvalued.

     

    At the current value of REE of $80 per basket kg, the share is worth at least $3.10 per share and as high as $4.50. Only be concerned with the current share price if the basket price of REE falls below $50.
    11 Feb 2011, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    New rule: When mentioning a stock to take a look at....it would be nice to let someone know that it is ON FIRE and in need of immediate pick-up!!! I looked at Maya's brief and tiny mention of Mesa a few days back, as did TB and some of the rest of you and...well...Remember TB..that was me shoring up my portfolio and saying I was having a hard time differentiating and choosing between Ucore and Mesa as an add. So guess which one I picked up that day???
    So Maya, anyone...got an opinion on a reasonable level to gain entry right now. I waited the first day expecting a brief pullback ~$1 and it never even looked at it Not sure what to expect today and into next week but looking to get in. Great find, Maya!
    11 Feb 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I looked into the stock and liked the prospects, and I have been looking for American juniors because of the coming government strategic stockpile and support...

     

    So I bought some. Quite a bit, actually.

     

    Then when you asked about UURAF, I told you I was buying Mesa.

     

    I had no more idea than anyone it was about to pop (and Maya turns out did not buy either)...
    11 Feb 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    That stock was the only one that didn't budge yesterday morning...should have known that was a buy.
    11 Feb 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Molycorp Announces Pricing of Mandatory Convertible Preferred Offering by the Company and Secondary Offering of Common Stock

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...

     

    "... priced a $180 million offering of 5.50% mandatory convertible preferred stock by the Company. The mandatory convertible preferred stock offering consists of 1,800,000 shares of preferred stock with a liquidation preference of $100 per share. The Company has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 270,000 shares of preferred stock to cover over-allotments, if any. The mandatory convertible preferred stock offering is expected to close on February 16, 2011, subject to customary closing conditions".

     

    Worth looking at the PR as more details are presented.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Alkane Update: www.alkane.com.au/repo...

     

    Yep, it was dilution, raised money for their projects (zirconia, gold, copper, etc). Sold 20mm shares for $1.05, raised $21mm.

     

    Oh well, it was a gamble anyway.

     

    Stock is down $.015 on the ASX, oddly enough, LOL.

     

    Of course, so is everyone else:

     

    LYC down $.015
    NTU down $.015
    ARU (just being difficult) down $.035

     

    American dollar is soaring this morning, flight to safety (boy, I always feel strange when I mention that counter-intuitive reality).

     

    Egyptosis is baaaack. Tales of the Mummy, Part XX.

     

    Watching Stans (STZYF) for my keeping-myself-interested trade this morning...

     

    Curious as to whether Lynas can make any headway today...

     

    Watching (MTCEF.PK) and (UURAF.PK) for a buying opp which might or might not come today...

     

    Watching (MSAJF.PK) just because its wild volatility yesterday really got my attention (and went a long way toward salvaging one of the most broad-based reversals for the REE space I have ever seen)...
    11 Feb 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Moly dropped under the $50 offer they laid out last night (after the after-hours trade). Starting some diluting of rare earth junior shareholders. This point needs to be watched at this stage. The ones that have already issued are going to be a lot better trades than the ones that need to issue more shares to keep their projects going. Could be the first cut in the rare earth space. If several issue next to each other the last ones will not be able to price and their pipe dreams drop off. Combine this potentially gathering storm with Lynas being fully funded through Phase Two (22,000tpa) and Mt. Weld producing concentrate first week in March. Glad I'm doing a lot less flipping juniors and sticking and adding to LYSDY. Just MO.
    11 Feb 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    I still have a buy in at $39.00.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My $38 buy in target is getting tattered, and I will probably bump it up a bit... MCP dropped from the dilution, down in the $40's again...

     

    We'll see. $39 might yet prove to be the magik number, DG.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So, based on that logic and if it is true...who are our most vulnerable juniors??
    11 Feb 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm very uncertain of the narrative initiated with MCP's Lockbox #1 Event that the juniors were all sucking sand now that they had announced the intention (somewhere in the future) of making lots of REE's. For one thing, we are looking at a 4-5 year period of dramatic change in this sector. Lots of chaos and mayhem will ensue. Zero sum thinking (ie, the market IS this big, will only grow about THIS much, and will be divied up by the Chinese and MCP, leaving squaddoosh for everyone else, sorry) is rarely smart thinking. In that situation I am rejecting the zero sum computation and betting on Lynas and Great Western, though not AGAINST MCP (whose advantages almost guarantee a dominant role going forward).

     

    But I tend to agree that we are seeing some mis-judgements going the opposite direction as well. Junior explorers (no matter how old or how many different investment narratives they have attempted) that have zero infrastructure should be treated at best as longer term investments. They are babies and will take time to mature. Sure, its possible to trade them ad nauseum, but when you see a horse race to market (which is what we have in the works right now), they are not even IN the race. Oh, they might enter the final legs, out 3 or 4 years, a few of them picked up to supplement resource gaps in the bigs, but that's all. Treating them as either being IN the primary race to market - or as a likely takeover candidate - is the essence of risk. I am of the opinion that M&A WILL occur, downstream of all the lockboxes and guvmint subsidies and stock-twisting market maneuvers... But picking the winners is tough.

     

    We all have our favorites, but its far easier to count those than the masses of less-favored. Ell only invests in Canadian juniors, Jimp has been in this space for a while and I'm fairly sure favors Lynas, as does chihawk. We 'Gades came to the table as paleo Great Western fans, and I started with a limited subset which has gotten smaller as time goes on...

     

    Due to the politics of strategic resources (something which used to be a lot more common back in the cold war days), American juniors (and there really aren't many of them in the REE space) might enjoy some untoward support. UURAF has to be counted on that basis, despite being another Canadian company, due to their Bokan Alaska project. (TRER.PK) Texas Rare might be another mentionable, just because of the American political prospect. MCP will be sucking up by far the lion's share at the taxpayer's trough, of course. Don't be shocked when miners who don't have much (if anything) to do with rare earths are dumped into the mix because they are Americans located in the "right" state. Needless to say this likelihood makes picking winners challenging.

     

    MCP is still relatively overpriced, imo, though I am thinking of bumping my buy-in target up as the pertinent legislation becomes more cohesive in Congress. I think they someday WILL be worth $75-100+, but not this month. Their lockbox and gag order is going to be with us for quite a while yet, so I'm just waiting so far as MCP is concerned.

     

    I view Great Western as by far my favorite Canadian junior. Their unique strategic market position due to their existing facilities is a powerful factor. Their high quality deposit at an existing mine (Steenkampskraal) plus their other claims around North America means they have a strong position in that end of the equation as well. The fact that they have facilities in the United States attracting favorable political attention just means they have another reason to be a winner. They are already signing customers linked to the U.S. government, and they enjoy similar links to the Canadian government...

     

    I believe MCP WILL ultimately purchase a junior explorer or two, at least one of which will be a larger Canadian firm, though depending on the price tag that might end up as a Joint Venture instead (precisely what Quest is dangling on their hook at the moment, in fact). As Great Western grows their position and prospects, while MCP is immobilized with lockboxes, stock manipulations, and paralyzing visions of guvmint largesse, the chances that they will be the target for MCP diminish. Right now I would say that the 2 larger firms MCP might focus upon in Q3 or Q4 2011 would be AVL or Quest, with Quest holding the advantage based upon geology, but AVL not to be discounted (anytime politicians are in the mix, it adds much to the chaos).

     

    Matamed (MTCEF.PK) is still my favorite tiny junior canadian.

     

    Europe is a different story, and for the purposes of this essay, I would treat Greenland as part of the European question. I own all 3 of the leading lights in that story, Tasman (TASXF.PK), Greenland (GDLNF.PK) and Hudson (HUDRF.PK). But I view both Greenland and Hudson as long term investments, stretching well out past 2015 for the big payoff (if it ever comes), and only a long shot for immediate gratification. Tasman gets my nod for the best junior play in Europe.

     

    Australia is all about Lynas, and the only junior I think much of in that case id Nourf, and primarily because of Lynas' large holding in their stock and their uranium assets.

     

    Everyone else falls downhill from there, into the 2015+? area.

     

    11 Feb 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Great post (really a first rate article) tripleblack. On the bull side, I especially agree that the rare earth market has rapidly expanding end markets and is therefore nowhere near a zero sum game. Right now Moly's endless stream of promises without adding further content to the story is flat out making me mad though.
    Overall, I'm more concentrated and conservative in my trades than you, but I can't take issue with any of them. I think the best way to read all of this mornings offerings on the board, is to use it as a foundation for stock picking. Use it like an analyst. We have some good stock driver and risk information here. Do your own research. But I would suggest that this mornings board has put some meat on that DYOR phrase and offers a good brain storming foundation.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    That was great, TB! And your moves the last few days are looking strong...congrats. So, based on the above, you wouldn't rate Arafura and/or Alkane very high (assuming someone has to be left out of the portfolio) Where do you put someone like them?

     

    You see, your piece there is very well done, and really speaks to the heart of investors like myself. I have moved my strategy from holding a few Big Ones to adding more and more to "cover all of the bases"...then feeling as though I have used too much ammo and are spread too thin..along with the temptation to still look around at those left off and feel as though an opportunity is being missed. It's a visious cycle. I currently view my options as follows:

     

    1. Cut more of the "other guys" and add more to positions I think are my fave locks. (GW and Lynas agreed)

     

    2. Limit the "other guys" but still have them
    - which leads me to the obvious dilemma-
    Which ones?!?! and where's the cutoff?

     

    I like Ucore, Lynas, GW, Sarissa (purely for the potential upside and low investment), MTCEF, Northern, and Quest.

     

    I view MCP as a great-long-term investment, but am rebelling on principle alone!

     

    What confuses me is I do not know what to make of players like Arafura, Alkane, REE, Stans, Mesa (maybe different), etc.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One thing you might try is to figure out what sort of investment horizon you are working with. This is always a very personal decision (and one that a surprising number of investors spend very little time on, if they do it at all).

     

    Many of these choices break down into groups on a time scale...

     

    Are they short term trades with lots of volatility (and do you even want in that game)?

     

    Are they investments which could pay off over the short term, say over the next few quarters?

     

    Are they going to pay off over the medium term, in this case between now and 2013 or 2014?

     

    Are they long term holds, that might blossom north of 2015?

     

    Try grouping them in that fashion, and then make some judgements. Time is the most powerful market environment element, and is often misunderstood.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Rain said: "What confuses me is I do not know what to make of players like Arafura, Alkane, REE, Stans, Mesa (maybe different), etc."

     

    I never paid much attention to the last three you mentioned, but Alkane and Arafura were among the first REE folks I bought. This November 2010 interview made me feel really good about that decision. NC is also in the interview.

     

    www.brr.com.au/event/7...
    11 Feb 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Very good interviews. I noticed a strange dynamic among the panel. The fellas from LYSCF, ALKEF and the broker seemed chummy and referred to each other by name. The fella from Arafura referred to the others as "your other guests". He seemed a little defensive to me.
    11 Feb 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    GDLNF even shows up as one of the smaller holdings in URA, the uranium ETF.
    11 Feb 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Their deposit is primarily Uranium. When they first started promoting themselves, they talked about mining the Uranium (which would pay for all operations plus a tidy profit) with the REEs as byproducts. I like Uraniium/REE plays...
    11 Feb 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    The better way to look at it is who has cash on the balance sheet and is the furthest funded into the future. Good junior COE's will have to time their issuances carefully. Those that do it a the best times and not when they need to raise capital will be fine. The billion dollar cost guys like AVL have to be careful here. I'm holding NOURF and Great Western because they already issued shares and I have some Ucore because they could get loan assistance from the government. But things in Greenland and those with expensive dreams really require a more accountant like approach moving forward. The tough part about that is that with OTC's their is limited current and reliable accounting information. Combine that with the costs of MCP, AVL and REE's projects and you see why I'm worried. I don't like Moly, but it is funded so it should be fine. For the rest put your banker hat on and ask would you loan to this. Such thoughts should take some froth out of the space and concentrate traders on fundamentals a little more.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    That makes our latest interest over here a bit more interesting also...supposedly no debt. MSAJF up again today. That would also again make Quest a good play due to the lower cost extraction and we know they will be able to raise capital soon moving to amex. What do you think of QSURD ATM?
    11 Feb 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The real tell for me was seeing WSJ talk about China's Vancouver "Going to the Buy Side" paper and seeing little reaction in the space. The news was not news to places like this board. But the fact that it didn't bring many new traders into the space is important. It tells us we need to make our picks more fundamental. High beta speculation works best when there is hype and newness in the story; Charts can help short term and for entry and exit points; But fundamentals always win the day.
    The best buy now is Lynas. Their best catalysts are on the doorstep. They are the only fundamental pick in the space. And they are fully funded and therefore protected from this storm. And when Sojitz becomes a complete deal by Mach 31, 2011, they will have a solid bridge to earnings and a reliable forward PE. This is what will matter throughout 2011.That's MO.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm glad to see MSAJF doing well for you guys on the board, but I don't know enough about it to trade it or comment. It's someone else's money and gain. In other words, I think you guys know it better than me so I'll trust your judgment. I've flipped Quest before so I can see something there. But I am currently not in it because of valuation. If my risk concerns come to be, Quest would get hit with everyone else, but it should not blow them up. Keep in mind this is my trader opinion from my experience. I don't even want to pretend to be an expert. I just want to share my thoughts.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The only bear trade I will suggest is to sell Stan's on this dead cat bounce. (Please place your red thumbs here.) But I really don't want folks to get hurt with something like this. I mean can you picture selling their story to a banker? If so, have you talked to a banker since the global financial crisis?
    11 Feb 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I could not agree more. Read back over my comments, and the article Kaiser published pertaining to their weak geology (and my commentary about their weak facilities, not to mention unreliable predictions as to when they will get everythiing running again)...

     

    I might well sell Stans today, LOL, but as of right now they are up quite a bit...

     

    Trailing stops are advised...
    11 Feb 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Just wanted to say that the 'Gades don't use red thumbs for anyone who constructively contributes.

     

    Divergent POVs and considerations that may be outside our personal knowledge are viewed as valuable.

     

    One should always feel free to contribute contrary POVs, backed by good rational thinking and research (where possible) without fear of offending.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutely. I never learned a single thing from anyone who just agreed with me all the time.
    11 Feb 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Yeah...someone else's: TB and Maya!

     

    No problem...much appreciate any and all points of view here. I like your focus on fundamentals.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, Maya tells me he didn't buy any Mesa...

     

    I'm the wildman who did, I guess...

     

    I view it as a trade, but I like to use these to generate zero cost penny stocks I can warehouse for the long haul. We'll see where this one goes for now...
    11 Feb 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB, last question for the day I promise. I am just having a difficult time reading Mesa and determining value. Is this a trade-driven frenzy or discovery of an undervalued stock in your opinion? I will wait for it to return and perhaps consider trading it, or, if this is anundervalued stock just making it's presence known, take a different kind of interest. It seems a bit unique to me. I'm out...and thanks for your wisdom and insight
    11 Feb 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Hey, "somebody else's money" is a great phrase. It keeps me from chasing stocks and it keeps me disciplined in my research and trading. Over the long haul that is very important and I'm sure it has saved me money.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm still accumulating on the dips from here on out - I'm upgrading it in my portfolio from the penny stock sock drawer I mentioned earlier to a longer term hold, mainly as an American Uranium play which might benefit from government goodies as the politicians re-discover how much fun their fathers had back in the cold war days distributing favors back home to fulfill strategic goals.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Pinetree Capital looking good over there. Can anyone reminid me which other RE they own interest in that is traded here. I couldn't find it. I see they have interest in Mesa, but there was another one awhile back.......
    11 Feb 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pinetree is invested all OVER the place. I'm not aware of a current listing, but I'll see what I can find... I believe their primary holdings are linked to precious metals... I own them, though, just because I was looking for a way to get some general exposure to many of the companies they own but was unhappy with the etf offerings.
    11 Feb 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I believe it was Jimp who pointed out a stock we trade which they share interest in...I'll go back and look.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    One last comment about debt with juniors. Don't oversimplify. A junior with no debt and a project needing funding has two main choices: either issue debt or issue shares. If they choose the latter you as a trader get hit (perhaps only short term, but hit all the same). If they take on debt you lose this reason for owning the stock. And whether you choose debt or issuance you can only do either or both for so long. Issue too many shares and you may have a share price with little movement even though you were able to price them all. Too much debt and you may not be able to roll it over in the future. Bottom line: money is not free. Everyone knows that. But in the hype of the rare earth trade, some will lose sight of this fact. All the same, this reality will never go away. And if mismanaged it will come back to crush the naive juniors. It always does regardless of the commodity or product.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    The rule of juniors as I see it. They will issue debt and/or dilute to get up and running. It simply can not be done otherwise. It will be the management team that maintains fiscal efficiency and prudence in planning that survives to become a going concern.

     

    The debt and dilutions will occur over time as needed or until they get bought. Selling the business is also a strategy and means they prefer dilution over debt to remain more attractive to would be buyers.
    11 Feb 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » True. This is one reason Lynas (with over 1.67billion shares) does not react quickly to news. Lots of shares (and those who went through the dilution to get the stock to where it is today bear the scars).
    11 Feb 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Very true TB. But that is the true junior investing cycle. First, the dream; Next the scars; Then the reward.
    Traders try to game this process to make their money and it sounds easy. But that really is only a valid strategy in the early innings. After that, stock pickers and funds bring the real money to the winners and leave the others behind.
    Traders that went from uranium, copper, and iron ore, to gold and then to rare earth made a mint. But if you go wrong or stay too long you will lose your sanity and capital. Personally, I trade juniors when momentum is dominating a space. That has been true of rare earth. But now I'd rather go where I'm confident the big fund money will be in the near future. And my hope is that my income from my job will raise trading capital for the next junior laden momentum commodity when it presents itself. So that's the view of my investing from 30,000 feet. Make's sense?
    11 Feb 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    Mubarak resigned. Hang on!!
    11 Feb 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sold out of Stans with 28% profit, now examining next trade...
    11 Feb 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    One last thought about Stan's now that TB is out. Some will make money off this and laugh in the pub afterward and others will lose their rear and put a tear in their beer. That combination leads to bar fights. Stay away from these kinds of stocks and these types of bar scenes. Just MO. Like I say: somebody else's money.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Trades are trades. Investments are investments. They are not synonyms...

     

    Volatility may continue in the REE space for at least the next year or more. Chihawk has made the point that trading REE juniors has gotten more risky, and with diminishing prospects for short term gains. This is true, imo, and a logical progression in the growth of the sector from zero to merely "immature"...

     

    But not the vision presented by some pundits of an ex-China sector ruled by MCP.

     

    Its also not a neat and tidy affair. Uranium and Thorium are the babies getting tossed out with the REE bathwater by some folks, but as I have taken pains to point out before, I actually prefer the mixture to be found in many of these stocks.

     

    The Tasman trade (which appears to be benefitting from the fact that it is relatively low in radioactives) is a unique case, and I like it FOR that reason, but its not the preferred idea elsewhere by any means.

     

    Lynas is a powerful investment for its huge niobium deposit, its strong titanium and tantalum prospects...

     

    Many REE deposits have strong uranium and/or thorium deposits, which are already attracting attention amid the booming world prices for Uranium.

     

    The age of reclaiming Russian and American warhead swords and pounding them into nuclear fuel plowshares is drawing to a close...

     

    Then there are the other China monopoloy stories, like Tungsten, which gets no press coverage but is a very similar case study...

     

    Meanwhile, we cannot imagine what will start to happen when the planet's governments and coporations begin to actively build strategic stockpiles, which to be meaningful will have to represent 1-2 years worth of minerals and metals (and won't THAT just distort those lowball demand estimates the nay-sayers like to toss around?)...

     

    LOL, China has alredy begun to assemble their own REE/Strategic Minerals stockpile, once again showing the forward-looking planning that got control of the world's REE supplies in the first place...

     

    More insanity is coming, not least of which will occur because the shadowy history of this sector has operated from a base of questionable legality (smuggling, wildcat mines raping the environment, and Tongs colluding with a Communist Party with a very long view and a long list of geopollitical goals...) and corporations operating off the books...

     

    More surprises are coming.
    11 Feb 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Who bought ALKEF with me the other day and what should I/we do with it now after the obvious dilution??
    11 Feb 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I bought some on spec, and with the knowledge it MIGHT be dilution. I am holding for now, I wanted some for a small long term hold because its a good chance to be acquired over the next 3 years... But its not a core holding, just a penny stock sitting in the back of the sock drawer...

     

    I had hopes that they might be cutting deals with one of the big Japanese kaibans, but hey, it was worth a shot.

     

    If you need the dry powder, either sell it quick or you might wait and see how the price settles. It could surprise you, a lot depends on new investors that might be encouraged by the action and buy in.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    I don't have it. But I think ALKEF held up OK after the issuance. I would not sell it for that reason.
    11 Feb 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    ALKEF held up very well after the issuance. The shares were gobbled up at 1.05. Again, many on this board think ALKEF is second rate. Do so at your own loss of return.
    11 Feb 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Alkane (ALKEF) is going to have stuff to ship in the latter part of 2012. They claim to have zirconium, tantalum and niobium in addition to the REEs -- including some heavy REEs IIRC. They also have gold, etc.
    11 Feb 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Recent interview with Tasman CEO, no real news, but a good "feel" piece for the situation in Europe, which is interesting:

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...
    11 Feb 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Well, I finally got in NOURF...been trying for three days and the marketmaker wouldn't budge...Tried every point under .60 all week and immediately went through @.60. Relatively small position, but...I'm in there
    11 Feb 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    You will be pleased when it ends the year north of 1.00
    11 Feb 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. This is my favorite Aussie junior.
    11 Feb 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Maya. I would like to thank you again today for MSAJF. I owe you a drink.
    11 Feb 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    It's getting onto Happy Hour, bukdow! Double Glen Livet, please!

     

    I have two accounts. A brokerage account with Wells, and an e-gamer account with Zecco Trading. The reason why I did not buy Mesa is because Zecco doesn't include/offer/allow the pinkies or foreign exchanges to trade with. I do have a bunch of Great Western and Lynas in my brokerage account, and am looking to add more of each.

     

    Also have some (QSURD) in the gamer account, which is up nicely.

     

    I stumbled into Mesa while doing some research. Their Uranium, REEs, AND especially POTASH caught my eye. That's one heck of a nice mix! When I visited their corporate website and learned they held no debt, I nearly pulled the trigger and bought some in my brokerage account, which, by the way, costs about 20 times as much to make a trade due to commissions. Hence, I passed (for reasons other mentioned below).

     

    I'm glad you and Trip and possibly others benefitted from my little bit of pitching in here in this most excellent space...my fingers turning green with envy as I type.

     

    However, right now I'm more focused toward a biotech play called Novavax (NVAX) than the REE space. Been scooping up shares in both my brokerage account and gamer account, as I expect (hopefully) some game changing news is going to be coming from this company next week and in the coming month or two about a new vaccine technology.

     

    CAUTION: This is a HIGH RISK invesment/trade. You can learn more learn about this idea in User 283977's brilliant Swine Flu Concentrator provided in the link below:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Again, glad you made a few bucks; that's what this Concentrator and what the Renegades in Quick Chat and elsewhere have been doing, the sharing freely of knowledge, banter, viewpoints, investment ideas and more for getting on to two years.
    11 Feb 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    TB, have you taken any profits on MSAJF yet? I'm thinking about at a 50% gain.
    11 Feb 2011, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was just looking at that. My thought is to look at it early in the morning and pull the trigger then. Good plan.
    11 Feb 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I unloaded 5490 shares at 1.30. A 36.8% gain. Not great, but not bad.
    11 Feb 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Not great" he says... After 2 days...

     

    LOL.

     

    Boy, this is a tough room!
    11 Feb 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    No kidding. What a jerk I am. Maya, I owe you multiple drinks.
    11 Feb 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, it was all kidding, and all good...

     

    I sold half at $1.30, good plan you had, good suggestion.

     

    Now I will hold onto the rest for a while and see.
    11 Feb 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Annualize that, or do an IRR in your spreadsheet. You'll feel a lot better about it. :-))

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Anyone care to take a stab at a new entry/re-entry point for MSAJF...I missed the first ride. I was hoping/looking around 1.09-1.13
    14 Feb 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After the wild ride the last few days, I don't think anyone knows where it might end up. Best bet might be to just try to catch some momentum going up, buy in, and sell a portion quickly to lower your average cost...

     

    LOL, assuming it doesn't drop out from under you as soon as you buy.

     

    That's what wild pennies can do. This one is a very risky stock, of course.
    14 Feb 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, you have provided an excellent summary analysis above of the sector. I'd like to add a note of caution about Great Western. I realize a lot of members of this board have made a lot of money trading the stock. However, Kaiser has indicated very strong doubts about them, His concerns focus on their main asset of current interest (I realize they have others), i.e. the South African mine. His concern is that their ownership is through their investment in Rareco, the owner of the mine. He says that Great Western's filings have given virtually no information about the owners behind Rareco or the company itself. I haven't tried to do any research myself to confirm this, but if anyone has money in an amount that is serious to them invested in Great Western I recommend doing due diligence on Rareco and what if anything has been disclosed about them.
    11 Feb 2011, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, ellwodo. I believe GWM now owns virtually all the Rareco shares. Last announcement was Jan. 24, at which time they announced they had purchased over 70% of all shares. GWM's offer to buy the remaining shares runs through Feb 28, so I would expect an update then:

     

    [quote]

     

    * Says bought 33.5 mln out of 47.8 mln Rareco shares

     

    * Says offer for remaining shares open till Feb 28

     

    Jan 24 (Reuters) - Great Western Minerals Group Ltd <GWG.V> said it raised its interest in Rare Earth Extraction Co (Rareco) to 70.2 percent.

     

    Rare earth processor Great Western said it owns 33.5 million of Rareco's 47.8 million outstanding shares as on Monday.

     

    Great Western, which held a 20.8 percent interest in Rareco in September, had made an all-cash offer to purchase the remaining shares.

     

    The offer for the remaining Rareco shares is open until Feb 28, Great Western said in a statement. [quote]

     

    My personal evaluation of GWM is based more upon their complete infrastructure rather than Steenkampskraal, though I would not call it a hinderance. Owning even 70% of the stock will put them in control.
    11 Feb 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    TB I agree. Might have been some issue (don't know of one) that Kaiser was concerned with back when they did not have control but that issue would appear to be dead now.
    11 Feb 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    "He thinks that GWG's 70% ownership of a cancer bat cave justifies a $1 billion valuation." - J. Kaiser

     

    "It is amazing that the company has done nothing
    to enhance its Kutessay knowledge base since then. We would love to do a valuation of GWG and Stans, but when there is no data, there is nothing to value." - J. Kaiser
    11 Feb 2011, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Pretty sure that Great Western also retains the right to process all REE harvested by Rareco. I don't know who Kaiser is, but I challenge his thinking.
    11 Feb 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    I believe it will get done since "GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP APPOINTS MOHAMED MADHI AS RARECO PRESIDENT"

     

    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...

     

    I posted this somewhere in the past, IIRC. But the implication escaped me at the time.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Feb 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8633) | Send Message
     
    Must have been in the bat cave. Who wants to play batman and robin. Now we need to find a cat woman too.

     

    You would think I already had those beers. Ha
    11 Feb 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Same bat cave at the same bat channel, folks...
    11 Feb 2011, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "...since then."

     

    Since February 28?

     

    Now, that WOULD be impressive.
    12 Feb 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » campaign.r20.constantc...

     

    Strange solicitations you start to get when you join all these home shopping networks, LOL.

     

    Interesting photo.
    11 Feb 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GOMRF.PK) GeoMega Resources. Anyone have this one on their radar screens? Went up a little bit yesterday...
    12 Feb 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    The stock shot up quite a bit at the announcement of their drilling results at their Montveil exploration property.
    www.newswire.ca/en/rel...
    It looks like they have a pretty good setup at Montveil. The region has already been picked over for gold mining and lumbering here and there so there are plenty of access roads. The nearest powerline is about 30 miles away along the main road going across the interior of Quebec. That highway curves to the south for a straight shot south to Ottawa from the direction of the property.
    This sounds like an interesting deal.
    12 Feb 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I am studying it as a potential addition to my precious penny collection.
    12 Feb 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    In fact, I'll think I'll take the time to review the mining stocks which have their main focus on Quebec. It's not just for the generous tax allowances, its for the basic geologic setting. It sounds like the miners keep finding all sorts of minerals up there where the Canadian Shield overlaps the Grenville orogeny mining belt. And that includes the carbonatites.
    Something else to keep me going, lol.
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    www.ressourcesgeomega....
    12 Feb 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That whole end of Canada keeps turning up interesting minerals. New Foundland, Labrador, and of course Quebec.
    12 Feb 2011, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Geomega Resources more than doubled in a week. TB, how do you find those?
    12 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Dig, dig, dig,dig,digdigdigdigdi...

     

    Just lucky I guess.

     

    This one has been lounging around on several of the REE lists out there, and I make a run through them occasionally to see how they are doing.
    12 Feb 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    This sounds like a good project to tackle during the rain storm which is due to come my way next week.
    Hover the cursor over the map symbols on this site to obtain the mine names:
    www.csmomines.qc.ca/se...
    Some other websites for exploring:
    www.mining.ca/www/Link...
    www.mrnf.gouv.qc.ca/en...
    www.quebecexploration....
    12 Feb 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    Here is some news on some junior diversified explorers with rare earth finds in Quebec. This list seems as good as any to start this line of due diligence.
    fieldexexploration.com...
    www.commerceresources....
    www.kirrinresources.co...
    diosexplo.com/shipshaw...
    www.nemaskaexploration...
    www.canasiaind.com/s/R...
    12 Feb 2011, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    Here's a couple of websites describing the mining tax regime in that jurisdiction. It is way up in the worldwide rankings as being favorable to miners.
    www.fraserinstitute.or...
    www.mrnf.gouv.qc.ca/en...
    12 Feb 2011, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I've been peppering this Moly pumper over on another SA thread. That is no big deal.

     

    But in his comments below his article he wrote: I had contacted the company (Molycorp) last week concerning the earnings date. Mid-February would be expected based upon their last earnings release. They stated that no date was set yet, but that it would be a bit later than mid-February as they were producing the more detailed annual report.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Now if this guy is right (and why would such a Moly pumper say something so Moly negative), I think Moly could get hit hard enough to effect much of the rare earth sector. Delaying an earnings report is a big no no. This is even truer with such a speculative company like Moly. Keep an eye on this. A Moly collapse may or may not result in a short term hit to all rare earth stocks.
    12 Feb 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    This is an interesting presentation for Rookies and Regulars alike.IMHO.

     

    ree.murdockcapital.com...
    12 Feb 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    More of the presentation on companies that have been followed here.

     

    ree.murdockcapital.com...
    12 Feb 2011, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    Anyone heard any recent news with EMC metals (EMMCF) ?
    The stock price has lately trended down.
    13 Feb 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I attribute this to "no news is bad news". They are just past their last update's projection of when they would be cranking up their newly augmented processing plant, and the silence is deafening...
    13 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    It looks like it is taking a hit from a pundit.
    timworstall.com/2011/0.../
    www.realpennies.com/ot.../
    13 Feb 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the feed back guys! As Kaiser says, I'm holding with fingers crossed.
    13 Feb 2011, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I recall the scandium announcement, but this metallurgy quibbling seems peripheral, at best...

     

    This blogger obviously doesn't like Jervois, Ok, fair enough, and he sees the alumina process to make scandium (which does indeed cost a lot, he doesn't get into this in his blog) as the industry norm, which I agree is the case...

     

    But the long-known alternative IS the baseline comparison in the Jervois methodology.

     

    I just checked the potential savings over the two current methods (the one actually widely in use, and the one neat theory that everyone agrees works but no one is using in a commercial setting), and they seem logical.

     

    So what he is really ranting about is some poor wording in the press release, which implies that the wrong ultra-expensive standard method is in use instead of the right ultra-expensive method.

     

    The point I take away is that IF (and nobody so far is stating they have a perfected process, particularly not EMC, I don't own any stock in Jervois) they can figure it out, the new process will be a lot cheaper than any other process.

     

    Big IF. I'm not counting on it, and I am invested in EMC because of their Tungsten assets and processing plant (which I would far rather hear about than extraneous side-bets on exotic metallurgical processes).

     

    I will say that its these scattered thrashings that hold back the progress of many good companies. I've seen it with CPST, and with many among the alternative energy startups. Creative people are drawn to these endeavors, and often these folks have a VERY hard time focusing on just one project. They are NOT neat and methodical thinkers, and the same creative spark that will occasionally create a massive leap forward, can also extinguish itself jumping like a grasshopper among multiple concepts that leach away the energy needed to make the original idea grow.

     

    Rather than pick at syntax, as this fellow is doing, it would be nice if HE focused on the central idea instead. He's doubtless correct in parsing the errors, but since he doesn't actually answer the underlying question - would this proposed new method actually save a lot of money vs the existing 2 methods, regardless which one is in common use - he's not making a compelling investment case either way with me.
    13 Feb 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm thinking that EMC is, indeed, chasing an entire new rabbit down a new hole, and I am very curious where this leaves their tungsten processing plant and mine in Nevada.

     

    I took nice profits on this stock after it ran up, so I am still well ahead of the game unless its stock price drops back into the single digits, but I am going to have it under Watch next week. If the stock continues to fall, I will probably exit the stock completely.
    13 Feb 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    J Kaiser sees more potential in their scandium assets, than ownership in the NV tungsten mine.

     

    "based partly on a strengthening tungsten market which strengthen's EMC's ability to sell its Springer tungsten "near" mine in Nevada for its target range of $20-$30 million, and PRIMARILY on the successful outcome of a feasibility study it is conducting on its Nyngan scandium project in Australia which could "rocket" scandium from obscurity to a widely used critical metal." - J. Kaiser
    13 Feb 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    EMC Metals
    "The Nyngan deposit has an in situ value of US $6.7 billion at the current price of $1,400/kg for 99.9% scandium oxide." - JK
    13 Feb 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As we're seeing with the attempt to come up with a less expensive process, the in-situ value is a far cry from a net profit.

     

    My primary interest is in projects which (like the tungsten plant and mine) are closer to the end than the beginning. Oh, I'll take the occasional flyer at a long term penny stock with good prospects 10-15 years down the pike, but that wasn't my motivation with EMC.

     

    Also, selling off the Nevada property for about what they have put into it might free up enough money to pursue the Aussie project, but in that case I will be considering investing in the purchaser. Scandium might indeed be a superior long term play, but I've just about got the penny sock drawer full of those already. If the in-situ scandium value was enough to support the stock price, it wouldn't be going the other direction as a result of doubts about coming up with a revolutionary new method of refinining scandium.

     

    This is the same set of questions which pop up when you dig deeply into the heavy ree story - that the reason these metals and alloys are costly is the complex and costly metallurgy, more than the mining/extraction cost, or even the relative scarcity. Scandium appears to be the poster child for the concept.
    13 Feb 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    TB, thanks for your insight. Yes, Kaiser calls this one of his classic
    "bottom fish" stocks.
    13 Feb 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Have anybody seen this ?

     

    thecommodities-market..../
    13 Feb 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. I wonder how this will effect the supply/demand imbalance many who are hoping to profit from by investing in non-Chinese juniors?
    13 Feb 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Thinking of the time it takes to get mines into production, including refining processes, and the fact that the numbers, IIRC correctly, indicate only a 10 year Chinese supply available from there, I wouldn't think it should do much.

     

    The rest of the world demand, as well as China internal demand, shouldn't be slacking off, so this new supply, when it arrives may be even smaller as a percentage of demand worldwide. That assumes that we really are in a worldwide recovery.

     

    And if the Chinese are serious about the new taxes and environmental requirements, the Chinese prices to outside consumers should rise from their historically low levels somewhat.

     

    That's my best guess.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Feb 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not new news. For one thing, China didn't announce last year that they were out of REE reserves - but that their reserves were estimated (not proven reserves,note) to be on the order of 15-20 years supply at current levels of mining.

     

    When the Cartel (which is not called a cartel in China, of course) was initially established, the prospect of reorganizing the REE space (which consisted of literally thousands of tiny outlaw miners, only about half of which were even registered with the local authorities) and "regularizing" the business (which to date has consisted of shutting down the small guys, augmenting the big guys, and forcing the medium-sized guys to merge with or sell out to the bigs (yep, Cartel behavior) was discussed. Establishing these organized efforts was first discussed as a means of studying the extent of the environmental devastation (pretty darn large, from all indications), with plans to lay out these mining zones already in the cards. Remediation of the environmental damage would be transferred along with whatever underlying resources remained.

     

    Anyone who thought that China would seriously shut down most of their REE mining capacity in order to fix environmental problems forgets that they are themselves the #1 REE consumer. Even had they completely shut down shipments to the outside world, this sort of thing would have impacted them as well.

     

    Controlling the REE sector in China is now an established and ongoing project, and it would be unusual if, in the process, we did not learn more details of where they were getting many of those metals all these years (but which were being operated more nearly like Appalachian moonshine stills than formal mines).

     

    China is thought to have once held 40% of the world's commercially viable REE deposits. Over the last few decades, they have gone through much of that hoard, but much still remains, and it would be odd if, after finally examining just what all those criminals were doing with REEs they did NOT find some hidden sources.

     

    Perhaps those sources will even offset some of the waste and environmental wreckage.

     

    As one of the Gades, User, has put forth very competently, there is a powerful business axim in regard to situations like this - that the RELIABILITY of the supply will be a crucial point of decision in its own right. China's reliability has been called into question on multiple levels by their own politicies and actions. Now the 60% of REE resources which lie outside China have been brought into play.

     

    The China of 1980 which sought to use REE pricing and their own resources to bootstrap an aggressive economic and geopolitical plan is no more - the resounding success of that plan has seen to that. China is now pursuing the end game, again at many levels...

     

    Frankly, all this has been covered extensively over the past year, and I'm not going to just keep on reiterating what everyone already knows.

     

    Those fearing that China will reiterate their geopolitical plan from the 1980's need to get in step. China will not be dumping valuable REEs on the market for pennies this time around, even if they can. Their new goals involve attracting Western manufacturers (and their proprietory technology) IN to China. Shipping cheap REEs would work against that goal. And frankly, China cannot roll back the clock even to 2006, much less 1986, when it comes to their costs of operation. Labor costs have shot up, and are now higher than those in many other countries. China has committed to bringing these mines into line with modern environmental standards - and that is not a cheap process. The Chinese ministry that oversees this job has already indicated that most of the Chinese REE industry (about 90%) cannot meet their standards, and that this WILL curtail production.

     

    What it all boils down to is whether to believe that it is logical for China to roll back the clock as if they would somehow PREFER to remain the world's low cost sweatshop for raw materials - or move on to a more developed industrial economy. The investor can find extensive narratives covering both alternatives, so its up to us which one we think makes sense.
    13 Feb 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Things are rocking early in ASX,

     

    LYC:LYSCF +0.050 to 1.950, 8.4M shares
    NTU:NOURF +0.015 to 0.585, 186K shares
    ALK:ALKEF +0.030 to 1.18, 227K shares
    13 Feb 2011, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Wow. Things are really heating up now,

     

    LYC +0.070, 11.2M shares
    NTU +0.025, 378K shares
    Alk +0.040, 317K shares
    13 Feb 2011, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (972) | Send Message
     
    Hey, don't leave out Arafura (ARAFF). They're up 4.5ยข right now.
    13 Feb 2011, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    ALK really taking off now, +0.090, 1.2M shares.
    13 Feb 2011, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, bukdow. Those are some very interesting numbers...

     

    Rocket is on the pad, I wonder if its about to take off...

     

    If the Citidips upgrade Lynas, this could get very interesting.
    13 Feb 2011, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Boy, am I glad to finally hear that!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Feb 2011, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    TB, Good Article. Even tho some of the facts have been repeated several times in your previous blogs but it is necessary for everybody to be reminded if we are going to make big money on this subject especially working against the Chinese. The only thing that I like to remind everybody is that even tho labor costs have been spiraling recently, miners pay is still extremely low.
    Below is link to Wall Street Asia for the article on Chinese strategic hoard on RE metals.

     

    cn.wsj.com/big5/201102...

     

    If you see the article in Chinese hit the English sign on the upper right corner and it will display the English version.

     

    13 Feb 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What I was railing against is the mistaken perception that China is as it was when they priced REEs so low that all other sources were run out of business. This includes miner's pay, which is only low when compared to industrialized western countries, Canada, Europe or the US. The comparison this time rightly belongs between China and, for instance, Vietnam, which is setting up as a future REE competitor. Much of the current labor data is an average based upon the pay for miners at the wildcat outfits (gone), rather than the top tier companies that now own the entire sector.

     

    The portion of the narrative involving "China got all the REE mines because they were willing to ignore safety and environmental rules - their own laws - and the health of their citizens - in order to gain a geopolitical goal" is, imo, absolutely true - and also absolutely obsolete.

     

    But I know I was getting repetetive.

     

    And its a good thing that we acknowledge this old chesnut every time it emerges, particularly when it is likely to be used as a pretext to bash one of the stocks we are tracking or invested in.
    14 Feb 2011, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, the English sign is also in Chinese but it is a rectangular red box. you can't miss it.
    13 Feb 2011, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF):(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) Continues to strengthen. Above 20 day SMA now and bumping the 30 day. I've included my post from 2/8 so we can see the strength of the move over the last couple days. Volume could be a bit better, but it's not going the wrong direction, at least.

     

    If we follow her in the U.S., I guess we'll see that break out I thought might happen Friday and it should be strong too.

     

    U.S. AM 2/14/11
    Last...... 1.955
    $+/-....... 0.055
    Bid........ 1.950
    Offer..... 1.955
    Open.... 1.925
    High...... 1.975
    Low...... 1.920
    Vol 32.124MM

     

    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I detect a slight smile on HTL face as he posts this....=)
    14 Feb 2011, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    Yep! I work on the pricipal that "One AwShit wipes out 1,000 AttaBoys". So I try to stockpile those "AttaBoys" on those rare occasions when they appear! I'll need every one as I go along.

     

    But I'm probably so far in deficit it no longer matters! :-((

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): It's beginning to look like they may start a move up today. Not large, if at all today, but the ending of the re-trace and consolidation looks to be near ending. So a little higher today in both the low and high, with some volume starting to come in, would indicate it's turning.

     

    Bid/ask right now makes it look *possible*, but you know that can change on us.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    No, no soldier...The "atta boys" have it. You are essential to this endeavor. Show me the Love!
    14 Feb 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    This is a message for Maya: Ever get any more info on Tamm? This one looks to be at an iflection point. Any good news might spring it.
    14 Feb 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10502) | Send Message
     
    Rain: No info as of late about (TAMO). Still trying track down where I read way back that they were going to have a pipeline up and running.

     

    Only bought a few 1000 shares to put on the board for tracking purposes. Plus, TAMO is only a penny or two above its 52 week low. This stock could also receive some e-scam pumping down the road.

     

    Definitely one to track if/when oil gets near $100/barrel.

     

    Careful...very thinly traded.
    14 Feb 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13589) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The new Concentrator is ready:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Everyone please hit the link to the new instablog!

     

    Thanks!
    14 Feb 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Looks like LYSCF wants to run. Could we see 2.00 at close?
    14 Feb 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18439) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Best guess is not today. Big *presented* sell imbalance @ $1.97/$1.98, but it *is* quite early. It's pushing the upper Bollinger, is a penny above the high of 2/1 and will encounter a "psychological barrier" of transiting a dollar boundary.

     

    Combined, those should cause a pause today @ or near $1.99.

     

    But with a higher potential opening value tomorrow, assuming we close higher today, those prices could be easily overcome.

     

    That's my best, sticking my neck out once again, SWAG.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Looks like you will be right, again, HT.
    14 Feb 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
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