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tripleblack
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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The last comment by the Honorable H.T.Love from the last Concentrator:

     

    (GWMGF): It's beginning to look like they may start a move up today. Not large, if at all today, but the ending of the re-trace and consolidation looks to be near ending. So a little higher today in both the low and high, with some volume starting to come in, would indicate it's turning.

     

    Bid/ask right now makes it look *possible*, but you know that can change on us.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "the Honorable H.T.Love"

     

    Where'd I leave my black robes and gavel?

     

    And "honorable"? Well, maybe, since I'll admit to posting a reply to Buk there *after* I'd seen the notice of the new post, It was a "brain fart" and I beg forgiveness!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Now that you guys are out of Mesa...I can say I'm glad to see it coming back down into a new target.

     

    What is up with UCore...seeing some new(recent) lows the last few trading days and the only thing red in my account.
    14 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm still holding quite a bit of Mesa, but at a share cost of about $.48 per share.

     

    UURAF got a pop from the Alaska Senator's interest last month, but like all such pops, it fades over time. I still see them trading overall within the same upward trend (chart is at the top of this insta).

     

    UCore IS, of course, a very risky and volatile penny stock...
    14 Feb 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, TASXF is up $0.40, it must be your new chart. (Matamec and Quest are having a good day so far also.)

     

    Kaiser has just issued a new and very detailed slam on Great Western. It sounds persuasive to me, but I haven't done any personal DD on the company.
    14 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We already knew he didn't think much of the Steenkampskraal mine, LOL, even when he was tossing rocks because GWM did NOT own them.

     

    Frankly, I value GWM's other assets much more than their mining claims or South Afrikan mine, but of course I have said that before. Downgrading the only company with ex-China high tech AMP and full-bore fabrication facilities (which are fully operational and attracting important customers) based upon the lack of uptodate geology reports on a mothballed mine is not a compelling argument with me.
    14 Feb 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Based on the action I'm seeing, and *never* having read but a scant post or two from him, I *suspect* he's slamming due to some big players positioning for a major move up. Of course, other than the trading action, I have no reason to suspect his integrity. But he's certainly created a "train of logic" to support his reason to slam - good planning. Just keep hitting it until the desired price is reached.

     

    Seeing some blocks of 33K+, 74K+ trading today @ the $1.01 level.

     

    Based on a higher high and low, already seen today and volume *looking* on track to meet yesterdays or better (SWAG, of course), I think a move up is on the way. Driving price down right now, giving more knowledgeable folks a better entry point, is an old occurrence.

     

    As I mentioned in another post, it should take a couple day to breakout, if indeed it does so. With the negative commentary, even a move a penny or two down first wouldn't e surprising.

     

    I'm holding my position. I don't trust many pundits at all.

     

    Again, I have *no* reason to suspect his integrity *other* than the action I see right *now*.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I don't have any doubts about his integrity. His position on Great Western has been very consistent for months. If $100 isn't material to one's holdings, I recommend taking a one month trial membership (it's $800 on an annual basis) and getting access to his archives and see for yourself. He has done very detailed analyses on many of the stocks covered here, some favorable and some unfavorable.

     

    No, I don't get a commission from him. It is just that I read comments from a lot of people on this blog who obviously appreciate hard data and know what to do with it. A number of you have hepled point me toward useful data and I just want to return the service.
    14 Feb 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for the thoughts!

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Ht...I'm always a bit slow to move...Do you think CPST still a good buy@1.49/1.5? Thanks
    14 Feb 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (CPST): Take a look at two posts I made that links to two message board posts at InvestorsHub.

     

    Remember, TB works so hard on this blog, we don't want to add to his load with stuff OT for this one.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    In your browser, go to the bottom of the page and search backwards (if your browser supports i) for CPST, Control-f might open a search bar - it does in my Firefox. If you use explorer, it may have a different convention.

     

    Once you've reviewed those, I'll be glad to opine if you want.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    If you like Vietnam plays and gold...perhaps one to watch. SMNG
    Just missed intial pop, but...

     

    Have done little research on this btw...just noticed the movement and geo-political landscape there
    14 Feb 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Bought (GOMRF.PK) this morning, took profits on (REMX).
    14 Feb 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    One to look at: URZ
    Funny name....good potential

     

    Uranium miner with recent coverage and upgrades as well as green light for permitting and about to begin construction
    14 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if it compares well with Bayswater Uranium Corp. BYSWF operating in Wyoming.
    www.bayswateruranium.c...
    14 Feb 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I think I know what could happen. Bayswater could sell some of their properties to the larger uranium miners operating in Wyoming when they need some cash.
    bayswateruranium.com/I...
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    14 Feb 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    added to my watch...may buy if it continues holding at this level

     

    thanks for the scoop
    14 Feb 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sold virtually all (EMMCF.PK), kept 1000 shares just to keep an eye on it.
    14 Feb 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Reuters (which along with the NYT is definitely usually on of the clueless "Authoritative Sources" which get the REE story wrong) has just dumped another large rock in our pond. And this time, they get more (but never all) of their facts straight, though their featured selections are on the odd side:

     

    ANALYSIS-Investors get picky in rare earth race
    3:17 pm ET 02/14/2011 - Reuters

     

    * Investors look for next-to-market advantage

     

    * Analysts: grade, infrastructure key to project viability

     

    * Current producers see record profit on high oxide prices (In U.S. dollars unless noted)

     

    ["Current producers"? Read on, and you will discover that they are very confused as to what comprises "production".]

     

    By Julie Gordon

     

    TORONTO, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Rare earth stocks were the darlings of 2010. Now investors are casting a far more discerning eye over the sector, betting that only a handful of companies will survive in the race to supply the world with the high-tech metals of the future.

     

    Critical to a company's success is the quality of its ore deposits and its technological prowess in extracting and processing the metals. Analysts estimate that half a dozen companies might make the grade.

     

    Currently, China has a near-monopoly over supply of the 17 rare earths, producing more than 95 percent of the global supply of the essential metals used in smartphones, electric car motors, wind turbines and high-tech industrial equipment.

     

    Even the slightest changes in China's export quotas have lifted the shares of any rare earth company that was aiming to become an alternative supplier. But in 2011, investors are increasingly dropping the long-shots and buying into projects that at least have a good chance of crossing the finish line.

     

    "We're starting to see a bit of the separation in terms of the potential of individual names," said Byron Capital Markets analyst Jon Hykawy. "Investors are interested in the potential and finding out whether some of these properties might actually bear fruit." <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^...

     

    FACTBOX-What are rare earths?

     

    FACTBOX-How to pick a rare earth project

     

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^...

     

    Australia's Lynas <LYC.AX> is expected to become the first major producer outside of China as early as next year. Its shares have quadrupled since the beginning of August.

     

    Right behind Lynas is industry juggernaut Molycorp <MCP.N>, which already processes about 3,000 tonnes of rare earths a year from stockpiled concentrate and could start producing new material as early as 2012. Shares of the Colorado-based company hit a high of $62.80 on Jan. 5, just five months after listing on the New York Stock Exchange at $13.25.

     

    At the other end of the spectrum is Medallion Resources <MDL.V>, which skyrocketed last fall only to tumble 22 percent since October. Also at the bottom of the pile is Frontier Rare Earths <FRO.TO>, which listed with much fanfare at C$3.25 in November and is now still at C$3.25.

     

    With the shakeout establishing who is at the front or back of the pack, savvy investors are focusing on those in the middle.

     

    "There's probably room in this space for no more than five or six projects outside of China," said Hykawy, who said investors need to be picky about which projects they back.

     

    Annual demand for rare earths outside China is about 44,000 tonnes, with China set to export about 30,000 tonnes in 2011.

     

    By 2015, rare earth experts say global demand could reach 200,000 tonnes, with demand outside China about 70,000 tonnes, seemingly creating a massive deficit.

     

    Lynas and Molycorp will have the potential to produce over 60,000 tonnes of rare earths a year between them within three years, leaving a relatively small window for rivals.

     

    That means that while hundreds of outfits are promoting rare earth finds, the vast majority will not make it into production.

     

    "If the deposit is middle of the road, and you've got 200 hundred similar projects to choose from, I think those are ultimately roadkill," Hykawy said.

     

    PICKS OF THE PACK

     

    The quality of the deposits, metallurgy and processing capability are some of the most important considerations in drawing the line between winners and also-rans.

     

    "The ore grade really links into the production costs," said Jacob Securities analyst Luisa Moreno. "A project could simply be not feasible if the grades are really small."

     

    This could be bad news for Tasman Metals <TSM.V>, Stans Energy <RUU.V> and Quest Rare Minerals <QRM.V>, all of which are exploring projects with ore grades below 2 percent.

     

    Quest will have to process over 86 tonnes from its Strange Lake project in Quebec to get just one tonne of rare earths. In contrast, Molycorp at the Mountain Pass mine in California will have to process only around 12 tonnes of ore for one tonne of rare earths.

     

    That's just a first step.

     

    Miners also have to remove the rare earths from other minerals in the host ore, an expensive and often tricky process involving acids and extreme heat. Then they must separate the rare earth concentrate into individual oxides and process those into materials that end users like technology companies can use.

     

    Processing adds value, giving smaller companies like Stans and Great Western Minerals <GWG.V> an advantage over rivals.

     

    Stans plans to restart the Kutessay II mine and processing plant in Kyrgyzstan, which produced 80 percent of the Soviet Union's rare earth oxides and alloys between 1961 and 1991.

     

    Great Western holds a controlling stake in the high-grade Steenkampskraal mine in South Africa and plans to have the project back online by 2013 to feed its own rare earth alloy and rare earth metal facilities.

     

    Kutessay II and Steenkampskraal have historically produced just small amounts of rare earths, but the infrastructure is already in place, meaning they will have a head start.

     

    Shares of Stans and Great Western have doubled since the end of 2010, as investors see the potential for the two companies to be the next to market after Molycorp and Lynas.

     

    "I think timing is really important," said Moreno. "There's a lot of projects out there. But those that are coming in the next five or six years, I think they're going to position themselves really well."

     

    BANG FOR BUCK

     

    Elsewhere, Neo Material Technologies <NEM.TO> is a rare earth play that is benefiting from present demand.

     

    The Toronto-based company buys Chinese rare earth concentrate and processes it for the global market. Its shares rose to record highs four times so far this year.

     

    "We're one of the very few companies that benefit from the high rare earth oxide price environment outside of China," said Chief Executive Constantine Karayannopoulos. "We're talking record profits."

     

    Karayannopoulos said demand, and prices, should stay high for the next two years, as companies run down stockpiles, and China trims quotas further to meet its own rare earths needs.

     

    But most analysts don't expect high prices to last.

     

    "As Molycorp ramps up and as Lynas ramps up, you're going to have the world probably go into surplus for some particular types of rare earths," said Dahlman Rose analyst Anthony Young. "You can see prices pull back from the current levels."

     

    Prices of the most common rare earths, lanthanum and cerium, surged to $60 a kilogram from about $5 during 2010, and will likely fall back first.

     

    But Young said heavy rare earths, along with certain light rare earths used in magnets, will likely remain in hot demand.

     

    For Molycorp's chief executive, Mark Smith, the possibility of lower rare earth oxide prices isn't cause for concern.

     

    His company was a top global producer of rare earths like cerium and europium until the Chinese cornered the market with cheap product in the 1990s.

     

    "It's absolutely a completely different ball game now," said Smith. "We feel very, very confident that we will now be the low cost producer in the world, which gives us a lot of confidence about not repeating history here."

     

    (Reporting by Julie Gordon; editing by Janet Guttsman)
    14 Feb 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Ya, and a month from now Smith will feel very, very very, very, confident that Moly will be the low cost producer in the world even though he'll probably issue more shares in between. But we still will have no further details, patents, proof, slides or anything else to establish the claim. Happy Moly investing suckers!
    Moly update: Moly dead cat bounced today a whopping 0.23%, but still managed to close on it's low.
    14 Feb 2011, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, I picked up on that "low cost producer" statement, and found it very odd... Either he's very confident he can undercut the Chinese prices (which would be very difficult, imo, to do in the United States), or once again we're seeing the sloppy thinking that talks about "world" numbers but ignores the presence of the dominant force in the REE space, China.

     

    I'm assuming he is addressing those comments to his Australian competition, Lynas. As for that, having parsed the vague article down to a kind interpretation, we will soon be seeing whatever Lynas can do, and in any event, we know we will be waiting several years for any similar demonstration from MolyCorp.

     

    We should know a lot more in 3 months, when Molycorp pops out of another lockbox-cum-gag order, and they let us get a glimpse of what comes next. By then we will also be able to compare their situation with their competition, including Lynas. This is nothing like a stationary equation.
    15 Feb 2011, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB, Smith literally says in the Moly presentation (on MCP website) that he will produce for half the cost of the Chinese (and Lynas). He offers zero proof accept a vague verbal statement about recycling and power. But no diagrams, patents, cost breakdowns, accounting, ect.. Can you imagine? It is going to be the biggest long term investment driver of the stock and these guys make the promise and give nothing to back it up. And now over two months after this presentation and after another share issuance we still have no further information. That is wrong whether the claim is true or not.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As with all such articles, its needful to acknowledge the power of the media, if not their knowledge, insight or accuracy.

     

    The companies which are fawned over in this article will likely see a pop, today and tomorrow: NeoMaterial Technologies, MCP and Lynas get star treatment - this will help their stock price.

     

    The companies that are treated less kindly will see the effect as well, but not in a good way: Quest, Stans Energy and Tasman are targets of the facile dismissal in the article because their overall ore grade is not up to the questionable standards of the article.

     

    The companies which are mentioned positively MIGHT get a lift, or not, there are mixed results from this sort of left-handed praise: Great Western, Stans Energy fall into this group, imo. Note that Stans Energy gets both some boost, AND a hit, so perhaps their outcome will just be neutral...

     

    The overall thrust of the article is a slight modification of the "...now that MCP is opening up shop, all the juniors are toast..." story. It expands to include the 4 companies we have been focusing on in this instablog as dedicated to some form of a veritcally integrated mine to market plan (and this is at least better than the "MCP has won everything" concept). Still, it essentially dismisses the entire sector but for the 4 just mentioned, plus a cameo writeup of a single company which is making money processing exported Chinese concentrates.

     

    In their world NO smaller REE juniors will succeed, and even 1 of the 4 they focus on gets swatted (Stans Energy).

     

    This begs their own initial premise, which was that 6 or so companies would make the final cut...

     

    So even when they pursue a topic with some validity and some basic common sense, they pull back from the hard part, take the cheap shots, and declare victory.
    14 Feb 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB. Great stuff!
    14 Feb 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Today's action was quite positive. Volume on LYSCF was almost twice yesterday's 604.74K at 1.20MM on a rise in price.

     

    There was no late-day follow-through on the upward move though, regarding volume, but we expected this would be the case.

     

    Tomorrow should be a different story, if I'm reading the charts right.

     

    First, there'll be a tendency to open higher than today's open right off the bat. RSI ticked off the neutral line to start moving up and MFI and OBV both made another small step up.

     

    The more critical indicators, I *think*, are the ADX, and related, and accumulation/distribution indicators.

     

    First, although ADX has not had time to react, the DI+ just crossed the DI- and is above 20 at 33. This indicates that more trades are being made at the ask now and, once the 20 line is crossed, is considered bullish, as is the crossing above DI-, which is (thankfully) trending down.

     

    This is a significant change from the situation back on 12/29/10 when DI- was 44 and above DI+ of 21 (barely above that 20 line). The convergence and, finally, cross has been in progress ever since that date, but without strong and clear indications that it would actually occur.

     

    Accumulation/distribution presents a similar scenario coming from a recent low of 2.41 on 11/16/10 to today's 16.53. This indicator has been on a turn to uptrend since 1/19 and is now very bullish.

     

    Are all "coming up roses"? Not yet. Stochastic just entered overbought. Normally a cause for concern, as reversals often occur from overbought conditions, this time I read it bullish. It is still above its moving average, no other indicators are near overbought and I've seen stocks stay overbought and continue rising for extended periods when a strong trend has been established.

     

    This trend doesn't yet qualify as a "strong trend", but I expect it will develop into one. With the addition of the sentiment from the article TB posted, this seems very likely.

     

    The question I have, is how soon and how strong.

     

    I'm going to act out of character and say "No Idea"!.

     

    But I do believe we could see a move to $2.03/$2.04, maybe even $2.06 ( a potential resistance from 1/19 on a one-day move off a leg-down low - the high was made on good volume and fell back, indicating resistance) tomorrow. A Fibonnaci point that was honored for a couple of days on a re-trace is what I think will be the first *potential* pause point. This would be $2.04. We might move right on by it though if the volume seen today, with the other indicators adding emphasis, is telling the truth.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    The MSM seems to be smartening up a little, but it still appears to be awed by MCP's hula-hoop dance. All hail Lynas!
    14 Feb 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 10:4, bukdow. The folks on this blog are WAY ahead of them.
    14 Feb 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Well, let's hope that article TB posted didn't put the kibosh on the move GWM was trying to make. It's still trading in a "flag", albeit a loose one rather than the preferred high and tight one, indicating that a reversal to the upside is likely.

     

    It been fighting to break through the resistance at $1.01 from 1/26 for three days now and volume has been rising. If we just look at the daily chart, it looks bad because we had higher volume on a down day. But now, "For the Rest of the Story" (Thanks to Paul Harvey).

     

    Through the first two hours of trading, almost, the price remained above one dollar but for two brief forays to $0.996 and $0.9879. Thereafter it moved to trade in a range of $0.98 to mostly $0.99 with a couple brief forays to $1.00.

     

    During this lower range, volume was very low, the only big move on volume being on the initial moves down to $0.99 at 12:02.

     

    Given the battle to break above $1.01 that has been going on, I'm heartened by the fact that once the lower range was achieved today there was no big volume. Buyers and sellers were essentially not blinking. Each believes they can hold out for a better sale.

     

    So, as I suggested in an earlier comment, a day or two more should be needed to resolve this situation, at which time one side or the other will capitulate.

     

    I'm betting (hoping?) it's the buyers, as they ought to realize that the production facilities of GWM have a head start on many in the space and will likely be one of the "early ones" to begin to profit.

     

    I think all of TB's considerations of how GWM is playing the situation also factor in. But I don't know how many potential buyers are really on-board with those considerations.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    14 Feb 2011, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The article is moderately positive for GWM, I believe. They weren't the "featured" group, but they were granted some respect, and without any direct slam.

     

    Ellwodo posted earlier today that Kaiser had a new writeup critical of GWM on his subscriber newsletter ($100 for a one month trial membership, $800 for a year). Perhaps that is also entering into the mix.

     

    Perhaps its just my imagination, but I think we are also seeing a "pause" while the sector waits for Mount Weld to actualy crank up (this would also be a pause reflecting the much longer 90 day lockbox delay between updates from MolyCorp on their situation).

     

    I have long believed that EVENTUALLY the media would have to reckon with REAL production. That would be Lynas with their full scale mine running like clockwork - GWM with their high-end AMP and fabrication facilities, complete with high end customers - and next to the fray, Lynas' Mount Weld Concentration Plant.

     

    This Reuters article is really the first MSM missive I have seen that even partially acknowledges the fact that Lynas will be first to market, though once again they get the timing wrong (LOL, March 2011 for concentrate production - and September 2011 for metal production - MIGHT be a critical bit of data for investors reading their article, but then again...

     

    Anyway, I did spot a little seam left open in their (extremely loose) production figures, ie, about 10,000 tonnes per year... Which would tie neatly with what GWM intends to produce.

     

    Its easy to lose sight of the fact that there is an entire sub-story involving strategic demand from the Western military. GWM is IDEALLY situated to snatch a large chunk of this business, particularly since (unlike ALL their competition) they can deliver NOW. Concentrates are already flowing, though not in quantities anyone is happy about (except of course the Chinese government), but ex-China facilities to turn them into the exquisitely difficult to make exotic alloys required for high end military industrialists are more rare than any rare earth.

     

    Great Western can earn a tidy living just catering to their high end strategic customers, and that's assuming they have little capacity left over for running up metals to go into the corporate and national stockpiles which are sitting vacant all over the planet (including, ironically enough, China).

     

    I predicted this early on, and I'll repeat it again: I believe GWM will be selling metal TO China before much longer.
    14 Feb 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Ellwodo. If your trying to invest in the wildly volatile, but potential multi- 10 bagger junior mining sector, John Kaiser is worth looking into. Most of his posts since aug 2010 ( when I subscribed,)
    have mainly focused on the rare earth sector. Good insight / perspective from a true professional. Kaiser is definitely a bull in regards to the rare earth sector (especially for 2011,) even though I've been surprised by some of his negative rants on some of these miners ( ie. Lynas. ) Time will tell if he was generally correct.
    14 Feb 2011, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, Thanks for posting the Reuters article. It is useful to see what most of the world considers leading edge reporting. It was incredibly simplistic. Yes, grade (% of REOs to total tonnage) is one relevant metric, but so are numerous others. For example, price. At current prices a kg from Quest may be harder to get than a kg from Moly, but it is worth more than twice as much. Also, the basic mining. Quest will be open pit, putting it far ahead of say Avalon's need to tunnel. I happen to focus on Quest, but I'm sure other projects also have their own advantages. The point is it's a very complex sector, but media treat it (at best) as if REOs are just another type of gold or copper or (at worst) as if mining REOs is like looking for quarks (substitute any other exotic misunderstood term).

     

    My recommendation is to pick a few projects (a small enough number you have enough time to track everything about them), know as much as you can about them (grade, price basket, est. total REOs, % of HREOs, etc.), identify the specific factors that make them a favorite in your view, and then stay alert to any indication that those factors are changing. This means paying at least as much attention (if not more) to experts that don't share your views.
    14 Feb 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sure thing, ellwodo.

     

    Many of us 'Gades have been listening to various experts for several years now. Jack Lifton, Dines, and the various other sources we've linked to over all those older Concentrators up stairs, not to mention all the QC's over in those blogs. I often read the various experts when they publish articles (though I believer only Lifton publishes on SA from time to time).

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Above is an older SA article Jack wrote about GWM, when he bought their stock as I recall.

     

    www.techmetalsresearch.../

     

    For those who might have missed this link published in an earlier blog, I find that this is a good spot to touch base to keep abreast of developments.

     

    I also like to see what the viewpoint looks like from the Chinese end of the spectrum, and Ishikawa has, I believe, posted up several excellent sources (as have others from the older blogs...

     

    Anyway, this comment is getting overlong, and I just don't have time to devote to listing ALL the links we have established over the past few months.

     

    Needless to say, ellwodo's suggestion to thoroughly research our investments, to include knowing what those who disagree with us (or who simply have a tall soap box from which to disseminate information, right or wrong, like the MSM), has a lot of merit.

     

    I even apply this to political opinion, sometimes to the detriment of my peace of mind, but that's a common problem for us Libertarians!
    14 Feb 2011, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I found this article echoes some of the worries I was having last week on here. I disagree with your analysis ellwodo and your dismissal of this risk.
    I really encourage traders to get concentrated in their best stories. As more of these stories pop up, the juniors will fall off and the big boys will take over. It always works this way in a commodity run. I am not a doom guy but these risky pennies trade this way all of the time. I think the article is too optimistic. The rare earth story is here to stay, but the long term junior stories are closer to going to near zero than we can currently imagine. I have seen this movie before but DYOR.
    14 Feb 2011, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    The companies whose treatment in the article I was objecting to are Quest and Tasman, that closed today around $6.30 and $5,50 respectively. I don't regard then as "risky pennies". I stand by my conclusion that the article's treatment of these two stocks was very superficial. That doesn't mean I dismiss all risks. All of these companies have risks, all you can do is to try and stay well informed.
    14 Feb 2011, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    No flame intended ellwodo, but I'll make a gentleman's wager that Quest is down from here a year later and Tasman will be way under one dollar. Sorry, but I feel pretty sure of mtself and I'd rather comment now rather than next year. By the way, I do hope I'm wrong. I have no position in either of these stocks.
    14 Feb 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    If anything was certain, we'd all be rich. Since you're not betting on Quest or Tasman, who are you betting on?
    15 Feb 2011, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk,

     

    Can you elaborate on why you think Quest & Tasman will tank?
    Quest is one of my favorites for the long term and Tasman according to Kaiser has a "world class resource," and is the sole rare earth miner in europe with infrastructure in place.

     

    Long: TASXF, QSURD
    15 Feb 2011, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    One more factoid on Great Western as an example of what it would be good to know about the company. GW doesn't own 70% of the mine. It owns 70% of Rareco, which owns 76% of the mine. The other 26" is owned by a South Africn entity I don't know much about.Granted, 70% of 76% gives it majority control, but not enough to force the remainder to sell to them. It could complicate its status as an M&A candidate.
    14 Feb 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    In the meantime, the company must be somewhat concerned about its energy supply since it has hired a local energy executive to work on its South African project. Maybe a backup electricity supply could be generated using solar installations.
    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...
    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    14 Feb 2011, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Energy supply is a problem at many mines or other remote projects like oil and gas drilling rigs. Often the companies will buy power generation rigs like those sold by another of my investments, Capstone (CPST). HTL, maybe we should hit them with an email...

     

    Keep the money in the family, so to speak.

     

    Depending on what they are doing to process the ore, seperation and concentration plants can be huge energy hogs. As for them hiring a specialist in this area, I would be shocked if they had NOT done so.

     

    LOL, gotta have good lights to see the bats.
    15 Feb 2011, 12:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Ellwodo: That GWM has a landslide majority interest of Rareco, the mine, and what the mine will produce, I wouldn't worry about the rest. With that kind of clout, GWM doesn't have to spend another nickle for control. They have it, and own it. Done deal.

     

    Hopefully however, is the other 24% is owned by the company that provides electricity! ;-)
    15 Feb 2011, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    That sounds like a plan.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Just want to add one more note on this ongoing discussion:

     

    Keep in mind some of the people/firms who are making relatively negative or bearish comments about some of these (especially juniors) also have coverage and or price targets which (although they may not indicate a choice as a world-beater) still indicate less than bearish short-term opportunities even for those. We talked of negative commentary just last week about Arafura I believe but with a $16 pps potential given by that same analyst. Above you have an analyst from a company in Dahlman Rose who has coverage and decent price targets all over the place on even some very speculative juniors but making bearish comments. I'm only trying to make the point that, even if you wish to believe these types of commentaries...they even leave room for investor profitablility...at the very least on the short-term (meaning between now and real ooutput on a large scale but a couple of players looking to dominate the market).
    Also, many of these commentaries/analysis contradict one another. So someone is wrong. Kaiser likes Quest, and Tasman...the Reuters report specifically bashes them.
    The truth is there is very little certainty here. We know MCP and Lynas are well-positioned and it is resonable to assume two other things:

     

    1- that one may profit from the perceived potential in other players for AT LEAST the short-term and likely do so relatively safell (in the short-term)
    ...and...
    2- that there will be other winners in this through niche markets, due to geographical links, political, and acquisition.

     

    I do, however, appreciate and like the counterbalance in here at the moment. Make no mistake...there will be losers also...and some pretty big ones.

     

    JMO
    15 Feb 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There will be no big winners without big losers.

     

    And so long as we differentiate between a trade and a long term investment, less confusion should reign.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    The mine is controlled by an entity called Steenkampskraal Monazite Mines (SMM). Rareco owns 74% of SMM. The other 26% is owned by an entity associated with the black economic empowerment (BEE) initiative that was created in South Africa after the end of apartheid. That 26% block of shares were donated by Rareco to that entity some time ago. The entity is overseen by three trustees; at present Rareco's Trevor Blench represents the Board as a trustee, and there is an independent trustee as well, Garritt Horn. The third slot will be filled by a representative of the future workers on the SMM project; this latter individual will also serve on the board of SMM.
    16 Feb 2011, 05:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the details. In my research I also came across the fact that Rareco had an Agreement with the Dept. of Minerals and Energy that indemnifies them for any historic environmental damange which occurred prior to their acquiring the mine. It occurs to me that breaking that chain of indemnity would NOT be a smart idea.
    16 Feb 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Rareco has an arrangement whereby in exchange for remediating the appalling state of the mine site as left by its previous owners, royalties associated with the extraction of minerals will be waived.
    17 Feb 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Another hidden advantage to the deal, good to know Gareth. Thanks.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Just a headsup to any readers who might be (REE) Rare Element Resources investors. Their lockbox for the 25% dilution comes due in March. Good overview article, nothing new or revelatory, and the usual questions.

     

    Disclosure: I don't own any, and don't want any.
    15 Feb 2011, 12:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (REE): "Why Rare Element Resources Is Unlikely to Ever Mine REEs"

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HTL, you might want to look over this guys's charts for MCP. I saw his earlier article, and thought at the time he needed to do less charting and more reading on this subject matter (he was talking about buying immediately before the recent secondary offering which priced at $50 and resulted in the stock price dropping to $47).
    15 Feb 2011, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Looks like JPM increased its position in Lynas by about 17 million shares on 2/11. If old news, I apologize.

     

    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    15 Feb 2011, 06:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Morgan Stanley, but there's not that much difference.

     

    I like the fact that such a report is publicly available there.

     

    JPM, "the street name" holding the stocks, is the holder for MS. There's other holders for MS listed as well.

     

    What's most interesting to me are the "Collateral", "Received", "Returned" and "Borrow" entries. I suspect the dates of those entries might equate to short sales and cover buys. A match of some of those dates might have a strong correlation (though offset a wee bit?) to some price action of LYC on the ASX.

     

    I wonder if one of our Aussie brethren might know if a short report is available there and might confirm.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2011, 06:33 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't it look like parts of MS are constantly buying and selling Lynas? Looks like when the price rises by a fraction of a cent, they sell some.

     

    BTW, if you missed NC's CC and Q&A from Feb 10, it's available at

     

    www.thomson-webcast.ne...
    15 Feb 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Above 20 day SMA by about A$0.06 and in an uptrend, although volume is weakening. May indicate a pause before either continuing up or reversing. With Mt. Weld, as a catalyst nearing, I guess it's not unexpected that there would be some hesitation about jumping all over the stock at this time.

     

    Folks probably want confirmation that what they expect really happens.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM

     

    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2011, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, HTL. The watchword in the background REE space buzz will be "confirmation" for at least the next 6 months.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Anyone adding to Lynas positions here or at any, even small, pullback?
    15 Feb 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    I'm in at 1.91. So, not exactly from a position of strength. If it goes down to 1.8x, I may. But I am already into them for a little over $25k, so I'm already swimming in the deep end.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Not in the last 10 days. When NC sold his, I sold my $1.91 - $1.98 shares. Bought back in at $1.78 days later.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Great trade! Bravo!
    16 Feb 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I'm a bit over-allocated right now, so holding until something tells me to take profits on a small portion ... or the whole load and add more if/when another attractive point appears.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    ALKEF has been doing well after its dilution, hardly a stutter. Up to 1.25 early on today.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, leading me to believe the money is being well spent. ALKEF was not such a bad gamble, I'm keeping it, though if it goes up enough I will seel 1/3 to reduce my cost per share, but probably not today.

     

    Tracking (GWMGF.PK), will add more if it hits $.89-.90 today.

     

    Holding (LYSDY.PK), that slot is full to bursting, "overallocated" as HTL says...

     

    Holding (MTCEF.PK), (TASXF.PK), (NATUF.PK), (NOURF.PK), (DNN), (GDLNF.PK), watching for buying opp, don't really expect one today.

     

    Holding (PMNHF.PK), need more trading stock, will pick some up between $.40-.44...

     

    Watching (STZYF.PK), expect it to resume downtrend to $2.00, don't own any, but may initiate another trade if I determine it has established an identifiable channel...

     

    Accumulaitng (UURAF.PK) on dips...

     

    Holding small position in (AVL), low cost basis, this stock is looking very toppy to me, might start to drop this afternoon...

     

    Watching (QSURD.PK) but still too pricey for a buy in, looking to re-enter lower...

     

    Continuing to sell out of (REMX)...

     

    Watching (GMO) for a good place to add more...
    15 Feb 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Trip & Rain: I'm tracking GWMGF, too, looking to add. On a one year chart, I have the 21 day moving average at $0.922, with support at $0.884.

     

    MACD is showing "sell" right through the above levels. RSI is still a little high for my tastes. Money flow "out" is at such a rate it's about to punch a whole in my desk! Meaning the selling momentum is both high and brisk.

     

    Typically, the quants should turn on a dime within the range at the above mentioned levels and begin re-accumulating. Stochastic is near reaching a very nice level for purchasing some GWMGF.

     

    And don't ya know it, while writing this technical analysis, GWMGF bounced right off the $0.8968 level and is back up to $0.9467.

     

    Hope this helps!
    15 Feb 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I executed a buy at $.90 earlier, Maya. Thanks.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Excellent catch and timing, TB! (I shoulda...argh!)
    15 Feb 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Great Western looked to move up from recent holding point...now down quite a bit today....due to some of the mixed analysis we've seen you think...or a gap to be filled?

     

    Before the last move up it held around .89
    15 Feb 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): The volume and price action today seems to act like a "catalyst", in this case negative, occurred so I think it's the article(s). Support seems to exist around $0.84, but it's only been established (1/27) and not tested since. But it was on decent volume, so that might be a position of strength.

     

    If we close at or above the 20 day SMA ($0.9411), barely below it right now, this may be the bear-term (LoL! "bear-term", how appropriate! I meant near-term.) low.

     

    Another potential support is around ~$0.88 if the trend line started from the low of 12/27, with two subsequent touch points and only a single day penetration, holds.

     

    One piece of knowledge possibly gained (although the timing of the article makes it harder to know for sure) is that there seems to be strong resistance @ $1.01-$1.03 level since it tried to get through it three days in a row before the article came out.

     

    We ned to break out of this "flag" formation soon. Otherwise it's a falling trading channel - which is one of the valid portions of the "flag". But we should've moved up form yesterday. So, again, I think the article nailed it.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "Bear Term". Classic. "Bull Term" for "full term"? I like it.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So what is with GeoMega? I have seen some of their properties...not sure I fully understand this kind of movement at that price - on low volume. Having a hard time grasping this kind of price appeal.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You can gauge more from their Canadian listing. The pinks are often arcane. They are getting good results from their test drill campaign, and have a lot of news flow in Canada. This may be hitting a peak, and I may be selling soon, with the idea to lower my cost per share to zero, plus bank some profits.

     

    (GMA.V) is the symbol in Canada.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If you input the (GMA.V) symbol on most platforms, you will get the increased data and trade tracking vs the pinks.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Yes...thanks. I had been tracking there already on the TSX. I was just about to clarify my previous post. One thing I had looked at the shs outstanding wrong the first time. Changes my thinking a little, but still pricey. With the juniors, I am having a little difficulty sorting out the relative pps and how the market is viewing pricing. There is some inconsistency, as is to be expected in a speculative, emerging market.
    Thanks for your update on your view of the stock...quite helpful!
    15 Feb 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on (REMX), added more (GWMGF.PK) at $.90
    15 Feb 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Finally a little news and movement for UCore...

     

    research.ameritrade.co...
    15 Feb 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Busted link, Rain, might be a problem on AmeriTrade's site.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here's some news from the Yahoo! site; it sounds promising.
    finance.yahoo.com/news...
    15 Feb 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    added more UURAF
    15 Feb 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Hey I like and own Great Western and Ucore. I know I'm going to get the bear reputation around here, so I'm glad to say something positive when I believe it.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Turns out Matamec (MTCEF.PK) is dropping today, down about 5% now, and near my Buy@ Target of $.45. I might pick someup at $.46.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tasman (TASXF.PK) was dropping fast earlier, but has turned around and is back into positive territory. Moving back over to watch Stans...
    15 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): The $2.00 battle is on. Right now, *presented* bids @ $1.99 *slightly* outweigh the $2.00 asks. Of course, w can't see the real volume behind the *presented* bids, so it's all up in the air right now, as to outcome. Since 11:07, the few trades (it's going to be low volume until this move is decided) I see have all gone @ ask, $2.00 ... until just now. Most trades sizes are "smaller", 3K and less, 1 10K.

     

    50% or so of the $2.00 trades have bee small multi-K trades, the rest several hundred shares.

     

    The *few* $1.99 trades I can see have been less than 1K.

     

    So, neither side is blinking yet.

     

    If we get above $2.00 by a couple pennies, it might move fast as there is apparently a lot of desire to buy, but everyone is hoping for the low price. Once they see they're not going to get it, they may loosen up.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Feb 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Penny-pinching scoundrels. Lord knows I would *never" behave like that when looking to buy.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk, Since Quest and Tasman are my two largest holdings, i would genuinely appreciate ypur expounding on why you think these two are doomed to crash, but you don't find Great Western too risky. Since my views are exactly the opposite, an exchange of views might be interesting.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some indirect indications are coming out of industries that are heavy consumers of REEs...

     

    Iodine sales have recovered, as have prices, which is a decent indicator that production of LCD devices and x-ray contrast media is also going up.

     

    Chinese fluorspar (acidspar) demand has shown a rapid increase over the past few weeks - with strong domestic and international demand. Some panic was reported in the market due to shortages at Chinese ports...

     

    Fluorspar is at the center of a WTO complaint leveled against China for export taxes, tarrifs, limits and quotas.
    15 Feb 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I see you mean, TB, the shortage is reason enough to look at what could happen with fluorspar production.
    IBC Beryllium IAALF stands a good chance to finding flourspar on their property holdings in Utah.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    pubs.usgs.gov/of/1998/...
    www.proactiveinvestors...
    15 Feb 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    It's been reported that an insider bought 412k shares of Great Western @ .99 yesterday. Ought to boost them in a few days.

     

    www.tmxmoney.com/HttpC...
    15 Feb 2011, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the sincere desire for conversation. According to Technology Metals Research:
    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    Quest's Strange Lake mine will not produce till 2016 and the mine has a TREO of around 1%. The mining techniques are difficult and involve a lot of expense. I think the mine is not economical, even with the good HREE numbers. The actual product they will extract is too small. Tasman's Norra Karr has a TREO of 0.54% and the project has not really start with no set production date. It faces harsh conditions, expensive infrastructure costs, and Scandinavian regulations. It's claim to fame is being the first European rare earth producer. Does that matter when MCP and Lynas are already signing long term supply agreements with European Rare Earth Manufacturers?
    So obviously you (and stonecarver) and I disagree about the importance of TREO percentages. Without being too technical, the current rare earth techniques have never been tried on 1% mines. The Chinese mines all have higher percentages. It's not like they will just end up with more end product gypsum. The truth is there is a real question whether such separation techniques will work commercially at all.
    Now this issue is a bit of a wildcard for everyone, but I think we are close to seeing something out of Northern Minerals. They have as their biggest holder Conglin Yue. He is a Chinese entrepreneur and exploration guru in Australia. He has made a lot of money developing Aussie juniors. Their second biggest investor is Lynas. Now when those guys get together on a company with two HREE projects, I've got a feeling there are going to be some big HREE numbers. And when that happens it will be obvious Lynas will buy the rest of them, bring in the relatively cheap infrastructure and blow away Quest's 2016 deadline and production numbers. And by then Tasman will be below a buck. I personally, think a year from now we will say the only thing funnier than the Tasman pipe dream was Stan's energy. But my point is not too be disrespectful to anybody or any company. But these are juniors. You guys can do your channel trades as long as the stocks stay up. But the truth is this never lasts with juniors. If they fall away, I worry that this Board will get hurt. In addition, by picking the most tradeable stocks you are in with the hot money. And the problem with hot money is all it can do is cool off with share issuance and trade exits. Yes, Northern Minerals does not have much liquidity right now. But if the story progresses it is poised to rise. That's a better way to invest. I worry what you guys are doing pays brokers and leaves little for you when you get out. Worse yet, I have concern that you don't have a good exit strategy if these trades go bad. I hope I'm wrong and I don't mean to sell you guys short. But my own trial and error has taught me differently. I just hope you guys do better with your method and I do think I'll do better with my current method.
    15 Feb 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Nice presentation Hawk!
    15 Feb 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Well, HT, looks like Lynas is getting kicked right in the "rare earths" today. Profit taking? Some other technical indicator?
    15 Feb 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL will have the quant-data, but my view is simple. We are seeing the end of the pop from the conference call, and a background market which is just not very happy this afternoon.

     

    1.5% drop is not worrisome, and we will see the reaction down under shortly. Keep in mind that Australia trades over 30mm shares a day, while we trade a fraction of that. When it comes to establishing or maintaining trends for Lynas, the ASX rules, and we tag along in its wake.
    15 Feb 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): It's still the uncertainty, AFAICT. Volume today was lower (by a miniscule amount) than yesterday on the down move, 1.10MM & 1.18MM respectively, so there's not an indication of a down move from that yet.

     

    Today's low was the same as yesterdays and our close today was the same as yesterday's open. So, a tight range with similar prices is another indication of the uncertainty and adds to the assessment that a negative trend has not been identified yet.

     

    The upper Bollinger is acting as a cap ATM, adding to the $2 psychological resistance.

     

    Stochastic is topped, overbought and weakening a bit, but it is not a reliable indicator by itself. ADX, DI+, DI- still weakly positive, OBV neutral and momentum still on the uptrend, currently 1.0769 - decent enough, and accumulation still almost as strong as before (16.4 vs 15.74 now). All, in combination, again an indication of uncertainty.

     

    The problem with momentum, IMO, is it lags too much, I have a 12 period span on that one. That's one reason I can't jump up and down about it yet. It's not being confirmed by other indicators (specifically OBV and the ADX, and related, that react more quickly).

     

    Today's low same as yesterday's but we did get the higher high. Still has a short-term rising channel with a slope of $0.025/day. So tomorrow we need to see a low around ~1.97 (ignoring the open, in my view), at worst to keep the trend going.

     

    Nothing in the technical indicators has flipped to negative yet, although several are neutral and one, stochastic, is overbought.

     

    Trading was *very* similar to yesterday in that price held up well until the afternoon, on relatively low volume for the most part. Then we started a slow step down at 13:45 on higher volume.

     

    Since we had a lower close than yesterday's, I expect the open tomorrow will be lower than today's open of $1.98. I'm not too concerned with the open price, but what happens shortly after that.

     

    If we open below the $1.97 and quickly come back above, that seems OK, especially if on good early volume. If it doesn't come back quickly to $1.97 or volume is very weak, I think we may see the afternoon drop repeat and we would likely close below that support line.

     

    Then a re-test of the $1.93/$1.91/$1.88 levels become likely. The $1.91 level has been supportive several times recently and we have the 20 day SMA @ $1.918 at today's end. So there's a decent chance $1.90-$1.92 would hold.

     

    But I'm not all negative about that, considering what we know about the environment. Folks (some) are still influenced by the recent downgrades (Citi, et al), others awaiting that "proof positive" that Lynas *will* produce soon, some taking profit, ...

     

    Add in the "psychological" $2.00 mark ...

     

    Now it's only been challenged once this time. Think of folks that bought recently in the $1.75 - $1.80 area and they can take a ~10% profit in just 10 or 11 trading days.

     

    The folks seeing this, and nothing else, need to be exhausted before we can get through that $2 mark. These are also the same folks that bail if we get a sudden move down (momentum traders), which is one reason I always try and note if we make a higher and low.

     

    With everything considered, and my belief that Lynas will not disappoint, I can't see, right now, a price coming into view that would make me bail.

     

    BTW, the lower Bollinger is $1.89 and rising, so there's also potential support there even if the rising channel is broken. Intermediate trend line support is $1.83 and rising ~$0.01/day and the 50 day SMA is $1.8474 and rising at a slightly lower rate.

     

    I hope this is helpful,
    Bill
    15 Feb 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Bukdow, 4c movement is nothing. Are you an investor or a short term trader? I am a investor in this stock and i can barely feel anything and i don't focus on short term fluctuations.

     

    In fact i would rather LYC go back to below 1 dollar so i can buy even more!
    16 Feb 2011, 06:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, chihawk, I love logical analysis!

     

    I hope everyone chimes in, but I cannot resist looking at the picture from this different viewpoint.

     

    I'm with you on Northern M., btw, its the natural sidekick to Lynas...

     

    ALKEF is the other, imo, just because there will come a time when Lynas is rolling in cash and looking out more long term, and the phone will ring with a customer looking for a long term deal for heavies...

     

    Tasman, however, I'll quibble some. Their advantage is something which is a disadvantage elsewhere, ie, lack of radioactive content (doubtless this also has something to do with the low overall grade, too). Europe is schizoid on the topic of nukes, and nowhere moreso than in northern Europe. This is a problem that will hound REE projects located there for a long time to come. Tasman will get government funding and investor support (particularly from certain very greenish investors, no pun intended) because of what they lack as much as from what they have. The EU suddenly woke up recently and began thinking strategically. So Brussels is likely to annoint Tasman (otherwise they have a knockdown-dragout with the Greens that litter their halls of power) as "The European REE Miner". This will be bad news for the Greenland guys, in all likelihood, which is another reason I call them a long shot...

     

    Germany is the wild card in all this, because unlike the EU bureaucrats, they are listening to their industrialists and not viewing the universe through green-tinged glasses. Now they are traipsing all over the ex-Soviet union looking for REE deals that have been overlooked (unlike Stans Energy, which as a mine vs a processing center is the poster child for something that deserved to be overlooked). And I suspect that landing projects well-larded with radioactives like Uranium and Thorium will not throw them off at all.

     

    Still, I can see the EU throwing money at Tasman, whether it deserves it or not.

     

    Viewed with simple logic, the way to go is with Greenland Minerals and their Uranium/REE mine, but hey, this is EUROPE we're talking about, after all.

     

    As for the American scene and MCP, I see a playbook not dissimilar from Lynas. The politicians will be deeply involved, and Washington will be looking to tie lots of strings to REE subsidies for MolyCorp. Look for Alaska to bring goodies to UCore (if MCP doesn't end up buying them outright), while Texas will probably do the same for TRER (purely for political reasons). In the end MCP will still need larger quantities of HREEs to fill their orders, and that is where the M&A logic chain gets more fuzzy. I am thinking that NAFTA politics will come into play, and with that we will see how the Canadian government feels about the whole issue. Stockpiling strategic materials will be the new indoor sport for governments around the globe, and Canada will not be exempt from the mania by any means. Will they cut some corners and bankroll some joint ventures with MCP (the very thing Quest is dangling on their hook right now), essentially joining the joint venture and adding their deep pockets to the equation? Is AVL more connected, and therefore likely to get a piece of that pie? Or will the logical thing happen, and a miserly MCP goes shopping for little starving juniors with microcaps and good numbers in the ground?

     

    LOL, notice all the question marks toward the end there.

     

    My personal strategy revolves around core investments, with the really sizeable one Lynas, followed by GWM and to a lesser extent, NOURF.

     

    The rest of my REE plays combined don't equal to what I have in GWM alone, much less Lynas...

     

    I have small holdings in Tasman, AVL, UCore, Matamec, and Alkane that I will probably hold onto for a while.

     

    I have older holdings in Greenland Minerals and Hudson that cost me virtually nothing, and which have generated such profits that by this time I cannot possible lose money on them. Those are long shots sitting in my penny stock sock drawer.

     

    I won't get into all the other stocks (including NOURF and GDLNF, btw) which I consider strategic/uranium plays, since the topic is really REEs.

     

    As for the ore grade controversey, I entered this discussion a long time ago with the concept that the best methodology involved starting with a huge and rich deposit (MCP, Lynas, several Chinese examples), building a big processing plant (MCP, Lynas, naturally) and running the ore, INCLUDING any additional ore which is otherwise low grade but enriched with HREEs, though the plant.

     

    The light elements pay for the huge infrastructure and the processing overhead, and the heavies come out as gravy.

     

    This concentrates (again, no pun intended) the power in the hands of the few, but it neatly handles the issue of overhead costs to mine and process low grade ore. As has been demonstrated, open pit operations are not the problem, they are (where allowed, and this raises the nasty political dimension again) not tough to do, most anybody can dig a big hole, after all... But anyway, the real cost and difficulty arrives AFTER you dig the hole and start dumping ore into rail cars.

     

    MCP and Lynas solve this problem because they are perched atop geological anomalies which lend themselves to the best solution. Smaller but perhaps heavier deposts near their locations can become part of the equation by shipping their ore via rail...

     

    But what of the constellation of potential REE deposits scattered across a gigantic swath of Canada?

     

    I suspect Canada's government will come up with a solution, and center their efforts around one of the larger players, and if I had to pick that player, it would be someone with a larger claim centrally located near rail infrastructure, probably in Quebecois territory...
    15 Feb 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Now I'm catching on to one reason why Lynas is shipping their concentrated ore by truck instead of mostly by railroad from Mt. Weld to the ocean port of Fremantle, a distance of about 600 miles.
    www.wnr.com.au/OurNetw...
    I had thought that it would be logical and probably less costly for them to ship the ore by truck to the nearest railroad access, Malcolm Siding on the Eastern Goldfields Railway located between the end of the rail line at Leonora and the town closest to the mine, Laverton. The distance between Malcolm Siding and Mt. Weld is about 65 miles by road via Laverton.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Many things could change as time goes on. Big volume means infrastructure comes to you rather than the reverse.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Silentz
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    Headline came across our local business journal today about Noble Energy, Inc(NBL)

     

    www.ncbr.com/article.a...

     

    They're opening a new 250 to 300 job headquarters here in Colorado. They expect to explore and develop the "booming Wattenberg oil-and-gas field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin, especially the Niobrara Formation in northern Weld County and southern Wyoming. "

     

    Facility to open in 2012.

     

    Nothing earth-shattering right now, but may be material in the future, so I thought I'd share the link.
    15 Feb 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk, Thank you for a very thoughtful response. I think our fundamental point of departure from each other is our diverging opinions on the value of HREE deposits. I agree with your numbers on Quest and Tasman in terms of total grade. However, I'm looking at a different set of the TMR numbers. Based on Jack Lifton's January report, and other sources I've seen, the two most critical REOs in the future will be Tb and Dy. If you go through the TMR numbers, the four projects with the largest totals of these two are (in descending order) Stans, Tasman, Quest and Matamec. I have eliminated Stans from my portfolio due to political risk. The next three are my largest REE holdings. I believe those two elements will put all of these companies high on an acquirer's shopping list, and therefore high on investor's lists.

     

    Fortunately, this isn't a zero sum game. With luck, both of our sets of choices will do well.
    15 Feb 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    How many producing rare earth mines has Jack Lifton been involved with in the past? My understanding is he has extensive experience in the automotive (manufacturing) industry. And I know he has been a paid consultant for several junior projects. I also realize from Google that he changes his view each time he goes to his next junior that pays him. But has he ever extracted or separated a rare earth element?
    Don't get me wrong if I wanted a guy to pump my stock and project for a share issuance or insider stock dump I'd call him. But if I want a guy who has extracted and separated rare earth on a project with a TREO below 2%, I might have to find a guy who has done that in his career.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Except for China, Molycorp people, some geezers in Kyrgyzstan and a few folks in Estonia, there may not be too many people who have that experience.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't leave out the really key experience, which occurs on the metallurgical end. GWM has the experience and knowhow there.

     

    This is part and parcel of a mass startup from essentially zero of an entire ex-China mining sector.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the attendees and speakers at this conference will help in the actual rare earth separation efforts.
    rerc.newmexicoconsorti...
    15 Feb 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I have been following JAck Lifton for a long time and i realize all he does is go around the circuit , get paid to regurgitate what is essentially the same story again and again.
    16 Feb 2011, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    As you point out that Europeans have concerns with nukes, it looks like Canadian mining sometimes has to deal with the intransigence of their First Nations minorities (Indians).
    15 Feb 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. That's why news that the various companies have reached agreements (treaties?) with them make headlines. Most of the Canadian companies we are discussing have at least one such agreement, and some have several.
    15 Feb 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB and ungawah this is false. The Chinese worked with several French (some now Rhodia) guys when setting up their mines and processing. Nicholas Curtis was in China for ten years prior to buying Mount Weld from Rio Tinto in 2001; Lynas tried to partner with China till FIRM blocked the deal; and Lynas has Rhodia as a long term contract. There are actually a number of people in (esp. in Austrailia) that have worked on REE mines. With all do respect, you'll note that none of them have been interested in the Canadian or US juniors. Curtis indicated no interest in any North American projects in the Q & A of his last investor call.
    15 Feb 2011, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » False? LOL, chihawk, you really are pugnacious. Anyway, please read my comment closely (I'll let ung talk about what he was saying, which left room since he never said there were NO folks outside China that know REE mining, nor did I say that either). Myself, I must admit to being ignorant of any old Australian REE mining, concentrating and refining operations from before the Chinese wiped out the sector for themselves. I doubt ung was slamming the smarts of Australians with his comment, or Lynas for that matter.

     

    For myself, I was referring to what comes AFTER mining, seperating and concentrating the oxides. The world has changed a lot since the 80's, and the metallurgy for the various alloys has become a patentable stronghold of closely guarded proprietory technology. With much of the work having to do with literally top secret strategic military projects, the prospects for a new startup may be daunting. One of the primary problems I see in supporting MCP's "mine to magnet" concept is that the magnets they plan to make have Hitachi owning the patent (and very close-mouthed about the metallurgy and manufacturing). I have some real doubts that MCP will be getting an influx of institutional technical knowledge as part of the deal... Hitachi is liable to control that end of the "mine to magnet" line..

     

    I would expect Lynas to encounter this with some of their commercial Japanese customers, too. Japan has a long history of buying "refined" REE metals from China, only to immediately re-refine them and make their own alloys for quality control reasons. Every new plant has to train up their people, wear in their gear, and iron out the wrinkles in their processes and procedures. Lynas will encounter these, and to the extent that they are re-inventing a number of wheels because their competition is not precisely beating a path to their door to share knowledge...

     

    Its only to be expected.

     

    GWM is the only AMP operator outside China (today, not decades ago) with a running line staffed with experienced operators and management, and actual REE orders being filled. Operational experience is important in any industrial application. Its great to have the equipment manufacturer around, that is a given, but hands-on and current experience has a market all its own. The high purity exotic alloys are where a lot of the value-added profits lie, and that's something which doesn't fall under mining per se. Most of the time the miner leaves the picture after the REOs hit the container and ship to the customer. Lynas's AMP will be the second such installation built in many years outside of China.

     

    And talking of Jack Lifton, whatever he might lack in knowledge about digging large holes in the ground, setting up complex industrial plants like an AMP is right in his ballpark, as well as taking what comes out to the corporate marketplace.

     

    I would consider a joint venture with GWM (has some interesting possibilities when you look at the charting for Lynas' recent dog and pony show, too) if I were Nick, though JE might not go for it, he's contrary and independent.

     

    I have read in on some of that history, and just as you say, Nick Curtis was on the Chinese payroll for a long time. He's a financial expert, and the original concept was for Lynas to be sold to a group of Chinese investors (probably the usual front for the Chinese government). Only the Australian government stepping in stopped that. Note that Nick has been hiring employees for the Malaysian operations who speak fluent Chinese... Personally I believe gaining some managment freedom had everything to do with locating the LAMP in Malaysia, though the 12 year tax holiday certainly didn't hurt!

     

    No hard feelings on my part for his original plans, they were smart plans, and he is indeed a smart operator, I am after all investing heavily in that...

     

    LOL, Lynas buying North American juniors would be rather crazy, given that he will be needing to do that with AUSTRALIAN and Asian juniors unless his plans all fail. Why on earth would he want headaches in North America (or Europe, for that matter)?
    15 Feb 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    CHihawk A+++ smacked right on exactly what i wanted to say
    16 Feb 2011, 06:19 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk, I think you msay be confusing Jack Lifton with someone else. He is the person behind TMR, the site with the data that you were using yourself.About the only specific stock I have ever seen him recommend is Great Western, the company that you like. I only use the raw data from his site. For engineering/geologist exoerience I rely on Kaiser. He does very extensive DCF analyses of the major players in this sector. He has very detailed discussions of the engineering/mining problems at various projects and why some are worth it and others aren't. If you haven't seen his very negative, and very fact intensive, analysis of Great Western you should do so.
    15 Feb 2011, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Fact: Jack Lifton bought 25,000 shares of Great Western before he bought any stock of any other REE. For that matter, he made quite a significant statement that his purchase of Great Western stock was the very first he had made of any stock, that is...ANY stock, in something like twenty years.

     

    If anyone insists/challenges, I will locate Jack Lifton's comment. I take him on his word. Simple to do because it's right here on Seeking Alpha.

     

    Does Jack still own Great Western? I'll take Vegas odds on that one.

     

    Despite what Kaiser says, if one is involved in the REE investing realm, if one wants to not pile into a single REE choice, but have some diversity, a blanket covering this space, then Great Western has to be in that basket of choices.

     

    In a way, this column is a Great Debate. Surely everyone here participating grasps the relevance and vital importance that REEs serve forth the "growing up" of the planet.

     

    As the investing approach becomes whittled down, all these choices...it's the companies outside of China to produce mine to market product first command my investing attention.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I posted that link up this thread earlier today, I believe, Maya.
    15 Feb 2011, 09:58 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Although I own all three, so I am hardly objective, I think the three best rare earth plays are Lynas, Northern Minerals and Alkane. Lynas just has the whole enchilada put together and ready to roll. Northern has very good prospects in Brown Range, Conglin Yue and Lynas just waiting to decide when. Alkane has very nice HREEs with a 200 year life span. These three will join forces with Lynas serving as the principal. Australia is going to utterly control the market. Everyone else is speculative, IMHO.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    TB: Glad you did. Missed it. I do so enjoy some REE bears hanging around. Keeps me alert, focused. Yet...

     

    I covet opposing opines. Question is, should I invest time in convincing others, when their viewpoint becomes altered by altered facts?

     

    To reiterate to those new here, thanks to tripleblack, Hard To Love, User, OG, Freya, and others, all their contributions, I feel pretty darn secure that Lynas, Great Western are at least a double a year from now.

     

    I like doubles. Especially when they become quadruples.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm not an REE bear. I just think my stocks are going up and everyone else's stocks are going to zero. :-) Just kidding. But I have a handful of REE stocks that I've mentioned on the concentrator before.
    Neo Materials
    Ucore
    Galaxy Lithium
    A fair amount of Great Western
    A fair amount of Northern Minerals
    And a very large Lynas position.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk

     

    My portfolio is very very similar to yours. Great minds think alike.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Is Galaxy Lithium really an REE stock? Its one that I am unfamiliar with, though I see it listed now and then. Lithium IS a strategic mineral though, so it fits the insta topic here anyway.

     

    NeoMaterials has been getting favorable buzz, including the Reuters piece I recently posted... I would expect it to go up short term from that.
    16 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Galaxy is mainly a Lithium stock going into production late this year.
    They recently found some some heavy rare earth deposits on their property. More drilling needs to be done and they need to get permits from the Australian Government for the heavy rare earth property.
    16 Feb 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Is that Galaxy Resources (GALXF) he is referring to?
    16 Feb 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Thats correct
    16 Feb 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Yes thats right
    16 Feb 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Galaxy Resources GALXF has a heavy rare earth discovery called Ponton located about 110 miles southeast of the Lynas mine at Mt. Weld. Much of it is within the sprawling Queen Victoria Spring Nature Reserve. The significance of that is there will be important environmental considerations to developing that resource.
    www.galaxyresources.co...
    www.exploroz.com/Place...
    www.otcmarkets.com/sto...
    16 Feb 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I came across a newer, more detailed description of their rare earth elsewhere on their website.
    The heavy portion was much less than estimated before but they have plenty of cerium, lanthanum, neodymium and praseodymium comparable to what Lynas and Arafura have.
    16 Feb 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Valley Boy,
    The current Galaxy web page for Ponton looks like the press release. Do you have a link for the update?
    16 Feb 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It turns out that it was the same report, an ASX announcement, linked to your instablog about a month ago, chihawk.
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Sparty suggested I check out Galaxy sometime prior to when I read your instablog; the report is only "newer" in my own mind, so to speak. I thought Galaxy was an interesting long term investment possibility without the benefit of yet knowing enough details about their rare earth discovery.
    I take the time to read your posts, chihawk, and find them interesting. I think it is always very worthwhile to get a sense of what local opinion is on the various mining projects, pro and con.
    16 Feb 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Keep it coming guys...really really good stuff. Much appreciate Chi-Hawk's commentary and, of course, all of the rest of you...unbeatable IMO. What do they say about two irons making each other sharper?
    15 Feb 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Pugnacious? I really don't want to be even disagreeable. I think you guys are bringing politics and courtesy into a research question. False just means my research contradicts the statement. I want to be direct for clarity, but respectful as well. None or few or some is fine, but when I want to disagree with a point the contrast is most important, but it shouldn't be viewed as an insult. A lot of people think my stocks are going to zero, time will tell. I like that part of investing.
    I agree with TB about Great Western. But I see no reason for GW or Lynas to get together. Both are good companies with different approaches. But neither needs the other. I guess I don't see the synergies. Steenkampskraal and Hoidas should work for GW magnets and the LAMP and Rare Earth Direct seems to be enough integration for Lynas.
    For the sake of clarity let me try bullet points.
    -I am absolutely speaking about Jack Lifton.
    -I see nothing in Lifton's CV (resume) that suggests he knows about separating or processing rare earths. None of his comments show knowledge of the chemistry or metallurgy. His geology comments are generally accurate but not insightful. In fact, they are painfully repetitious. Beyond that my view that he is an empty shirt full of contradictions is opinion based on suffering through his u-tube videos. I also believe he has awful hearing. I appreciate the chance to say this Emperor has no clothes because research rigor will require me to still read him; even though he will continue to add nothing.
    -TMR's mine information is a collection of information from the various reported findings. I read with disappointment all of Jack's information.
    -Lastly, Jack's views have a progression from when he got on board with GW to when he started with Ucore to the present time. He likes to see himself as independent, but when I evaluate his comments I do not reach this conclusion. What controversial research (non-political) position is he taking?
    -Lynas and Moly have knowledgeable teams with experience we agree there. I do not feel Quest or Tasman have even average teams overall.
    -None of the rare earth information I've pursued is (top) secret. Hell, Google has an e-book on REE processing you can buy if you like. And for many years through the 90's and into the 00's, REE information was shared freely across borders in the scientific community. Those knowing about this information are not particularly old or Australian. Although the geographies and business communication has given a minimal advantage to people in that part of the world.
    -Please site articles indicating security restrictions to processing and separating information. I am not familiar with this problem. In fact, I was surprised how quick the US government released their information about rare earths.
    -I agree with your Curtis information but to fill in a piece I would add that Curtis was with Sino Gold Mining Limited. He eventually sold that company to El Dorado. But Nick is more than a finance guy. He is currently with Forge, a mini junior as well. I appreciate the LAMP hiring information. I had heard that but I don't know where.
    -Is Kaiser an engineer or geologist? I've read his comments, but I don't know his background.
    -The LAMP was a good idea whether you base it on geography, tax benefits (Malaysia 12 year tax free OR avoidance of much of the Super Profits Tax in Australia); raw materials, currency comps, industrial relationships ect. I actually think Curtis is getting benefits he did not realize when he ditched his original WA plan and went with the Malaysia LAMP.
    15 Feb 2011, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » [I agree with TB about Great Western. But I see no reason for GW or Lynas to get together.]

     

    Pure speculation on my part. Just an opinion, of course.

     

    [Both are good companies with different approaches. But neither needs the other.]

     

    We'll see how that goes, of course. Lynas was originally driving toward becoming part of the Chinese REE industry. Now its going a different, more independent route. As a heavy investor in the company, I obviously hope all goes well with their efforts, and I am confident they will do well overall. My suggestion that it might be neat if they allied with a company already doing the most complex portion of what they are about to try to do seems like a low-probability but interesting concept to me. I'll try not to belabor the idea, which I repeat has probably only the slightest of chances of actually coming to pass... Needless to say, there is no compulsion or necessity (which I know of) for Lynas to do any of this, just me tossing out a wild idea.

     

    I occasionally have these ideas, and voice them on this instablog. Who knows, perhaps some of these ideas will even make someone some money, or save some money.

     

    [I guess I don't see the synergies.]

     

    I can understand that, particularly since I have elaborated the concept very little (it might get a tad longwinded, but its a good fantastical story - no, maybe more of a potential future historical novel)...

     

    GWM would benefit because they lack (for now) a functional mine and could really use the influx of money and capital raising support. Lynas might do this if they find that cranking up the LAMP is harder than foreseen - that there are technical challenges that are creating expensive delays - and that an extensive list of customers they currently do not have access to, and cannot service, would be opened to resources they have but GWM does not.

     

    [Steenkampskraal and Hoidas should work for GW magnets and the LAMP and Rare Earth Direct seems to be enough integration for Lynas.]

     

    LAMP is a factory. Not one patterned after many others (which is easily done in other mature industries) simply because these are far more rare than the minerals coming in one end, or the metals coming out the other. One day we might see AMP's patterened after LAMP, but right now this is as much the opposite of a cookie cutter layout as can be imagined. Just as with the Lynas Processing Plant at Mount Weld, it is a first of its kind, an experiment. I salute Lynas for doing this (heck, I do more than that, I lay my blood, sweat and tears on the line in the form of a stock investment). But as a grey haired old industrial guy, I also know how tough this can be.

     

    I had my own small part in an experimental plant one time (though in our case, it was one built within a mature industry, just pushing the envelope a bit). We were inventing loads of new things, new processes, new control systems. Some of them didn't work. Some of them actively got in our way because we didn't know how to fit them together in a smooth sequence. We knew that we were wasting money and time (which is often far more valuable than money, even when you are NOT in a race to market), but the only source of experience and information that would cut through the fog was unavailable to us because it was located behind the doors of a competitor's facility.

     

    We did NOT seek to form an alliance, that was unthinkable to our corporate management, so we instead dug in and ultimately succeeded (about 7 months past our deadline, but hey, we GOT there).

     

    So, the synergies might not be there at all, or be needed, but Lynas will KNOW (just like we did) if and when they are. Maybe they already suspect. After all, Mount Weld was long scheduled to crank up back in 2009.

     

    Making new things happen is a painful process which rarely runs on schedule. One of the things I try to accomplish here is to give as true a picture of things as I can find. Cautionary notes like this (and the perhaps boring thinking that drives them) are just part of the scene. Not everyone knows just how hard doing what Lynas is trying to do really is, and I can only imagine based on a loose comparison to some very obsolete general experience.

     

    Chihawk, I REALLY appreciate you bringing your ideas to the fray, its important (just as ellwodo states) that as many different visions as possible are presented.

     

    I'll not try to defend Lifton, he's just one of many people's opinions I read in my research. I have been critical of him myself in the past, and will be again in the future, I am sure. My cautionary note to you as regards Lifton is to be sure to parse those things from his articles and interviews which DO contain new knowledge. He goes to many different events in places like China where he picks up odd data (and attitudes, but that's one of my own observed quirks), and since I am unable to be everywhere at once, I take in those often extraneous bits and pieces, many of which may not appeaer anywhere else because the other attendees may not, in fact, share with us.

     

    Analists, pundits, xperts and the odd CEO are all best viewed as sources of information. Getting too attached to one can open you to manipulation. Part of the function of this insta is to bring as much information from as many sources as possible. Some will be from the hundreds of links brought to the work by the participants in these blogs. Some will be personal contributions, or just the wondrous results of many eyes viewing the same thing and one pair of them catching an insight everyone else missed.

     

    LOL, chihawk I can appreciate your feelings having to peruse the writings of many people who don't end up contributing much worthwhile, just so you can glean out the bits that might be valuable. I suspect we all do a great deal of that.

     

    [-Lynas and Moly have knowledgeable teams with experience we agree there. I do not feel Quest or Tasman have even average teams overall.]

     

    I am less knowledgeable about the junior explorer (my personal thumnail description of junior miners that have no mining infrastructure) staffs. Most of the smaller ones have very few employees other than their corporate officers. For these companies, it is even more important to focus upon the CEO than with a company like Lynas, imo, where a large staff is present. I know that MCP and Lynas and GWM actually HAVE "teams", but I suspect most of the others do not. Once you run down their list on their website, you have seen all the faces you are likely to see if you visit their offices and meet every single person on their payroll. A CEO, CFO, and a secretary is not a "team" in my book.

     

    [-None of the rare earth information I've pursued is (top) secret.]

     

    I haven't either, but then I don't work for Hitachi, Toyota, or the U.S.Navy. I do know that most companies HAVE proprietory information they work hard to protect, including those I have worked for in the past, and that this is a factor in this case.

     

    [Hell, Google has an e-book on REE processing you can buy if you like. And for many years through the 90's and into the 00's, REE information was shared freely across borders in the scientific community. Those knowing about this information are not particularly old or Australian. Although the geographies and business communication has given a minimal advantage to people in that part of the world.]

     

    The last time I was privey to any official secrets, Vietnam was a War, not an ETF. Multiple articles refer to them in a vague way, but no one is making a specific case other than that REE's have a strategic dimension. Frankly, as widely read as you are, you MUST have encountered these!

     

    [-Please site articles indicating security restrictions to processing and separating information.]

     

    If you are referring to my prior comment, here is the quote:

     

    "For myself, I was referring to what comes AFTER mining, seperating and concentrating the oxides."

     

    I took pains to talk about what GWM does at the AMP level and after, involving exotic alloys and finished products, the types of projects often done for governments and defense contractors - or corporations protecting important corporate secrets. This would be a topic directed at LAMP (hopoefully, those projects can pay very well), not the mining activities per se which will take place at Mount Weld. Its easy to get the various stages of the process confused, but once again, I view GWM's potential expertise that would be of value to Lynas (or anyone) to lie outside a mouthballed mine in South Africa and INSIDE their facilities in the UK and the US state of Michigan.

     

    However, Lynas is very properly protecting the details of their new proprietory technology they are installing as part of their Mount Weld Processing Plant - and it is the source of their confidence that they will be producing a very enviro-friendly product very cheaply ($7 per kilo is the estimate, though for what appears to be purposes of erring on the side of caution, NC recently used $10 as a loose estimate) with their new system. I would be shocked to learn that they are sharing this knowledge gratis with MCP and their other competitors, but I suppose anything is possible.

     

    [ I am not familiar with this problem. In fact, I was surprised how quick the US government released their information about rare earths.]

     

    Don't be. The US government and their geology reports are public domain, far as I know. Also their statistical studies. Some of the best data about MCP is the old geology studies on the public sites.

     

    [-I agree with your Curtis information but to fill in a piece I would add that Curtis was with Sino Gold Mining Limited. He eventually sold that company to El Dorado. But Nick is more than a finance guy. He is currently with Forge, a mini junior as well. I appreciate the LAMP hiring information. I had heard that but I don't know where.]

     

    I have loads of info on Curtis, plus his several (not just Forge) seperate business interests, but after a while it just gets tiresome to type it all out. I consider Curtis a first rate mind and a good CEO for this company (which would imply that regardless where his primary background lies, he is able to grok those things needed to make his company work). One of my friends, User, brought forth the idea that NC's recent unfortunately timed stock sale may well have been prompted by money needs at one of his other business interests.

     

    [-Is Kaiser an engineer or geologist? I've read his comments, but I don't know his background.]

     

    Off the top of my head I'm pretty sure he's a geologist, and a good one. But I could be wrong. I can only carry so much around in my head before it starts to pour out of my ears. I have voluminous notes somewhere, but as anyone will be able to tell from the date and time stamp on this comment, its getting very late...

     

    I'm sure those that pay for his newsletter/data subscription service know far more about the man than I do.

     

    [-The LAMP was a good idea whether you base it on geography, tax benefits (Malaysia 12 year tax free OR avoidance of much of the Super Profits Tax in Australia); raw materials, currency comps, industrial relationships ect. I actually think Curtis is getting benefits he did not realize when he ditched his original WA plan and went with the Malaysia LAMP.]

     

    Moving it offshore was a great idea, imo. For all those reasons, but not least of all for the freedom of motion it gives him. I view the future as being one where the more hard to obtain REEs will be sourced all over the Asian continent, and having a foothold there, in a very key, central location, will present a marked strategic advantage. He will pay more now to ship his concentrates in from Australia, but in the future he will MAKE more money by dealing with all the other startups in Asia, with Vietnamese/Japanese combinations a very real potential set of customers for starters.

     

    I believe being near the SE Asian tiger economies will pay off long term, period. Korea will be another potential customer base.
    16 Feb 2011, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Kaiser is a money guy. No technical experience.

     

    John Kaiser was born and raised in Vancouver, Canada. He graduated from the University of British Columbia in 1982 with a BA in philosophy and German. He began work in January 1983 as a research assistant with Continental Carlisle Douglas, a Vancouver brokerage firm that specialized in Vancouver Stock Exchange listed securities. In 1989 he moved to Pacific International Securities Inc where he was research director until April 1994 when he moved to the United States with his family. From 1989 until 1994 he was also a registered investment advisor. He worked six months as a researcher for Bob Bishop's Gold Mining Stock Report before branching out on his own with the publication of the first issue of the Kaiser Bottom-Fishing Report in October 1994. He has written extensively about speculative Canadian issues, is frequently quoted by the media, and is a regular speaker at investment conferences. He specializes in high risk speculative Canadian securities with an emphasis on the resource sector. He is one of the few independent analysts with an in-depth knowledge of diamond exploration.
    15 Feb 2011, 11:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Notlooking good, either from ASX or today's open (bid/ask $1.92/$1.93). However, ann add point may comeinto range if sentiment doesn't change soon.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM

     

    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    Bill
    16 Feb 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The pop is over, holding pattern resumed...

     

    Now we might see news from other sources.

     

    Usually, we can count on some pundit or xpert to pump MCP about now, particularly since they can't do the pumping themselves until May.
    16 Feb 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    UCore smokin'...

     

    Hey HT...based on what you've posted this week...and based on my sentiment as well...a likely place for Lynas to hold would be around 1.88/1.89 correct?

     

    I sold my core earlier and will look to get back in later today or in the a.m.
    16 Feb 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): If we have a general down draft going, we can't really say where it will hold. I just look at the technical stuff and say what potential action I can see.

     

    I can't recall all that I've posted, so I'll just do a quick look at the chart right now: Fibonacci $1.93 and it's battling that right now. Could hold as the 20 day SMA is right under it. Current PPS $1.91, (update, back to $1.92 with balanced *presented* bid/ask $1.91/$1.92) but a small overshoot of potential support points is quite normal.

     

    50 day SMA and intermediate trend both offer potential support right now @ ~$1.85 - each rises ~$0.01/day. Lower Bollinger $1.88 and next Fibonacci $1.81.

     

    Something I've not mentioned often here is "reversion to the mean", a quite common occurrence on stocks that have had a good move up. From the recent low of $1.75 on 2/2 to the high of $2.00 on 2/15 (yesterday), we could see roughly $1.87 on a reversion. This is akin to a "consolidation" as folks adjust to a new trading range after a noticeable move in either direction.

     

    One thing I do feel positive about is that we rose enough to take the potential "island reversal" off the table, as I suspected we would.

     

    All told, I'm really expecting to see the lower $1.8x range as we must keep in mind that the MSM hype which started all this big run across the sector has abated and the "Drama Queen" has moved on to the next bit of excitement.

     

    That's why I've tentatively planned any adds in that area. But, as mentioned, I'm already overweight in the area, so I hope it doesn't get there. My feeling is that my current basis is OK and I'm content to hold and let PPS do its meandering.

     

    MHO is that you need not *rush* to buy and trying to catch a bottom or top is difficult. I would think waiting for a (confirmed?) turn and establishment of an uptrend would be better. You give up only a few pennies of potential upside for what, I think we all expect, will be a large ultimate move.

     

    So avoiding the risk prior to a confirmed establishment of an uptrend might be a useful strategy.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Everyone please go to the new Concentrator.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    16 Feb 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Guys, it will take some time to respond to all that is out there, but let me say right now that I am very impressed. I've been watching the concentrator for while before ever posting, but apparently not enough to see your understanding of the REE industry and stock fundamentals. I'm not sure I will agree with some of you any more than ever before, but you have all of my respect. But, please guys, can you put some of this fundamental stuff in instaposts to make the research easier? In the meantime, thanks for all of the comments.
    16 Feb 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11015) | Send Message
     
    Mmmmmm I've owned stock in GLW for a long time and am now glad to hear I have been invested with them in Platinum and Rhodium in which they have amassed $2 billion in the stuff. Smart move. Now I love it more than just for Gorilla glass. They have been aggressively hedging against inflation and the commodities run up.
    16 Feb 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): PPS has now intersected both the lower Bollinger and the support trend line off the 12/27/10 low.

     

    At this point we should find out if the recent negative press and general REE space is in control or if the trend is going to be taken as a good price point by any bulls left out there.

     

    So far today, the low is essentially the same as yesterday's and the 20 day SMA is $0.9524, which we are now below. PPS is still in the range of the "flag" support, which is below the trend lind from 12/27. So we want to see that trend hold and PPS not continue to follow the flag downward. If it does, we've got to take a "flag" indicated reversal to the upsaide off the table.

     

    That would put us going to $0.84 as the most likely scenario.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): ASX results last evening positive. Combined with the apparent change in sentiment seen in yesterday's intra-day price action, we should start a move up. But pre-market bid/ask count and spread very small yet (it's still early). I guess we could see some hesitation, due to local market or sentiment, for a day or two while folks figure it's time to start buying in.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM

     

    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    Bill
    17 Feb 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
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