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tripleblack
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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  •  
    aka GXY
    16 Feb 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Yeap that's right GXY managing director Iggy Tan.
    16 Feb 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Love the name. Very retro rockish.
    16 Feb 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  •  
    HT: found what I was looking for in previous post...great job. Thanks
    16 Feb 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  •  
    OK people...sorry to monopolize the new concentrator (you guys must be too busy making great trades). 2 things:

    1- Anyone care to take a stab at a short-term resistance for UCore's current run

    2- Anyone familiar with GX/GAXLF care to take a guesstimation at a good buy@ price - I kind of like it. They have good friends. Looks like it would be real close to where its at now

    Thanks

    Liking my UURAF add yesterday morning
    16 Feb 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    From mineweb. What to look for in a rare earth project. TB has covered this in detail.

    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    16 Feb 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  •  
    China fortifying reg of rare earth industry. Comply or else? Maybe they will use this to nationalize any remaining companies they do not "own".

    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    16 Feb 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Rain,
    I hold the GALXF in my 401 K. There is no rush to buy it right now. It takes a long term horizon. To drill out, establish Ponton and permit it for production will take a long time. In the meantime, it is a lithium stock looking for vertical integration. I found it looking at the holdings in the Van Eck Rare Earth ETF - REMX (Boy is that a sloppy non-representative ETF).
    My risk in the stock centers on how much money they want to spend. If they dilute the Cain out of me with massive spends on scooter plants in China I'll feel like a fool (again).
    If electric cars go to Lithium Ion to make the charge numbers work in cold areas, and China looks like Italy with scooter drivers everywhere, and Ponton turns into the next Mount Weld it will be the next big thing.
    But I view my buy as establishing a low cost basis in a stock that might be a 2014 story.
    16 Feb 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The fact that they plan to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange was something I found appealing. That has been delayed a bit. Ought to increase visibility when it happens..
    16 Feb 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The new Nissan Leaf is a Lithium-Ion car. The first 20,000 will ship to the US this year from Japan, though they are hoping to crank up a factory to make upwards of 115,000 per year in the US next year.
    16 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yeah, the Leaf is all electric. Some people say that if you and a couple neighbors plug them in at the same time, transformers may blow -- especially when there is heavy demand for heating or cooling. We may need more power plants -- gas, coal, nuclear? Cramer says coal, but nuclear in other countries. Got any uranium?
    16 Feb 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Not really a problem with them blowing a transformer - they take 10 hours to recharge, and use a 230 circuit. There is a way to quick charge these arrays, but that needs a commercial DC setup that costs about 3 times the price of the car, so few homes will ever have those. During the 10 hour charge, they are drawing considerably less power than the typical clothes dryer. (You can also recharge them with 110 power, but it takes 20 hours).
    16 Feb 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Looking at UCore today (up 25% last 2 days).
    Sold 50% @.98
    I want those shares back long-term

    Will this one come back to me?

    I am still...painfully...le... the art of profit-taking to correct a portfolio which (although I believe solid long-term) has pretty much kept a neutral net position due to my lack of profit-taking skills.
    16 Feb 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Ucore is compensating for the declines in Great Western and Lynas in my little portfolio. Sure am glad about Bokan Mountain. Doesn't hurt to get the attention of Congress.
    16 Feb 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Me too. UURAF is my 4th largest REE/Strat. holding, and its the star today for certain.

    Just picked up some more GWM at $.89.

    Really, everything in my strat/REE portfolio is up today except GWM and Lynas. The portfolio just set a new high for the year...
    16 Feb 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  •  
    It looks like a fair minded introduction to Pinetree Capital.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    16 Feb 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I was just considering adding some more Pinetree...

    Thanks Valley Boy.
    16 Feb 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Rain,
    Hard to say if it gets back to .98 right now. But since you took profits I'd call the difference on that 50% someone else's money. I wouldn't chase. And for the first time on this board, that someone else is me. So the phrase does work both ways. Next time it will be yours instead of mine. That's the market.
    16 Feb 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I see mostly smaller trades....mostly hot money perhaps. Lot's of volume makes me nervous though as it reminds me of the REE, AVL type moves Americana style -will inflate a stock unnecessarily soon...that is a really large volume increase. I'll bet it comes back....and I'm sure my confidence in that fact is coming through, right! Hard to tell when the masses on the Amex decide rightly or (usually) wrongly the "Next Big Thing." Don't want this to be it...yet.
    16 Feb 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Nothing new, but the announcement might cause some movement in sector...
    -----------------

    (Feb 16, 2011) China announces shakeup of rare earths industry From Associated Press by: JOE McDONALD

    BEIJING (AP) — China plans to tighten control over rare earths producers and restrict output in a five-year development strategy, the Cabinet said Wednesday, amid concern abroad about plans to reduce exports of the exotic minerals used in high-tech goods.
    A Cabinet statement promised to "reasonably set annual quotas for production and export" but gave no details. It said the government will tighten environmental controls and block unauthorized production.

    Shaken by the threat of supply disruptions, Japan has considered becoming a rare earths recycling center and is establishing partnerships with other Asian nations including Vietnam and Mongolia to develop new mines. tinyurl.com/4na9ooq
    16 Feb 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Recycling is the thing to take away from that article and hang onto.

    Every cell phone has REEs, plus many other metals.

    Heck, 1000 recycled cell phones will yield an ounce of pure gold.

    I've seen various numbers for recyclable cell phones which are junked each year, but the numbers are somewhere around 200million.

    Let's see, 200,000,000 divided by 1000 = 200,000 ounces of gold.

    Yipes.
    16 Feb 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Matamec is up $0.02 (4%), with heavy (for it) volume of over 700,000 shares on TX. Every time it starts heading up with big volume I hope some M & A shopper is making a move. So far the hope has been in vain, but you know what springs eternal.
    16 Feb 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I have a Buy@ target for Mat of $.45 right now (Ok, I would probably pull the trigger at $.46 on a good day. It has flirted with that a few times over the past few days.

    I still think we will not see any M&A in North America until May at the earliest (and no coincidence that's when MCP's current lockbox pops open).
    16 Feb 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  •  
    (LYSCF), (GWMGF): Change in sentiment on a day when quite a few mining stocks are down.

    No late day sell-off. Lynas traded most of the day flat, $1.91/$1.92 and then *rose* a penny at 15:12. That's a decidedly positive sign. Holding at the Fibonacci 50%, $1.93.

    Similar for Great Western, $0.91 down to $0.88 through lunch and then started a crawl back up. Holding now @ $0.89/$0.899.

    Currently above that trend line, barely. Yes, a down day, but on also reduced volume. This *may* be signaling that we're at/near the bottom of this run. A day or two to confirm is needed.

    HardToLove
    16 Feb 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    A nice 9.5¢ gain in Northern Minerals (NOURF) in Oz last night. Perhaps something has moved to the front burner with Lynas???
    17 Feb 2011, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I was just going to post that, ungwah. Looks like I am Jennings and you are Watson. Hopefully, we see a parallel in NOURF's performance here today.
    17 Feb 2011, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Parallel achieved.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Nice to see NTU / NOURF back up where they belong.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  •  
    The stock bounce might be due to speculation on opening up the Indian market to Australian uranium. That would expand the uranium market by quite a bit. But it is one of those political decisions that are difficult to predetermine.
    www.aua.org.au/Content...
    www.watoday.com.au/bus...
    17 Feb 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  •  
    If the Indian market for their reactors goes to more of an open market, this might be good news for companies like GWM which have a rich source of Thorium, which is the old/new tech which some high profile Indian researchers are looking at for a new generation of reactors.
    17 Feb 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The thorium profit potential is likely to favor Arafura Resources, too.
    www.arafuraresources.c...
    www.ga.gov.au/image_ca...
    www.australianminesatl...
    17 Feb 2011, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Yes. Thorium is in the mix for several of the REE/Strat. juniors.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I tried adding to Nourf yesterday and never got 'em to bite.
    17 Feb 2011, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  •  
    A little news for IAALF...

    research.ameritrade.co...
    17 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Sorry...2nd time busted link from Ameritrade account. Anyway...they signed a new contract to advance their research and are getting a small bump from it
    17 Feb 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Excellent. I think this will be a good one to hold onto, says the guy with 36,000 shares.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Its in my sock drawer. I don't consider it a trade, but a long term gamble where IF it pays off, the results will be big.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  •  
    (AVL): Started @ $10.50 by Mackie, as spec buy.
    DJ Newswire.

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Wow, I love it that I have a small core in the stock, but I view that sort of valuation as over the top...

    BUT...

    It has behaved recently as if it were true.

    It will be interesting to see whether Quest follows suit.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Sandstorm Resources changed name to Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL) effective today.

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Yep. Blew 2 of my accounts platforms minds, no tracking, I would expect this to affect their trading and volume until they get it fixed.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Chihawk, Believe it or not, you were a contributing factor to a change in my portfolo. I still believe that heavy REE % trumps low grade, but I decided that sticking with both Quest and Tasman on that basis might be too risky. I prefer Quest for a number of reasons, so Tasman is now off the back of my sled. Quest has said it is going for Amex listing. I believe that once it gets it, and it is on a level playing field with Avalon, it is going to shine by comparison. Avalon also has the low grade problem, but only half of Quest's heavy REE %.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  •  
    TB, I also got out of EMC, but I got back in today. Kaiser reitterated his enthusiasm for it yesterday. You might want to take another look at it.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I want to see it get back to where it was before I sold out of it before I re-enter. I might lose some short term profits that way, but it would constitute confirmation of an upward trend for me. $.40-.42.

    I'm still holding a few shares just keeping an eye on it.

    I normally bail on any company that alters its emphasis from the plan which brought me to them, until I can see which way they are going and whether or not that new direction interests me.

    I made excellent profits from EMC in the past. I bought most of my shares at $.18 originally.
    17 Feb 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Took profits on (REMX) and (ALKEF), added (IAALF).
    17 Feb 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  •  
    ALKEF will not be below 1.15 again.
    17 Feb 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I hope you are right, I kept 2/3 of my shares...

    If I'm right, though, we might see it back at $1.10-1.11 soon.

    This is normal operating procedure for me. I buy 30-50% more shares than I want to keep long term as a core investment, and sell off at the next opportunity that will give me some ready profits and lower the average cost of the remaining shares (again, down to the goal I am shooting for).
    17 Feb 2011, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  •  
    You very well could be right, TB. I made my prediction as much out of desire/bravado as any sort of empiricism. However, it was up another 0.045 in ASX last night.
    18 Feb 2011, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  •  
    LOL, with the kind of macro-manipulation going on in our equity markets, "desire/bravado" may be as good a prediction tool as any!
    18 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  •  
    I have some dry powder and am looking to add. Any suggestions? Better to hold off?
    17 Feb 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Looks like a general up day for the REE/Strat space.
    17 Feb 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Well Buk, I've started to suggest 3 times now. I'm seeing (GWMGF) and (LYSCF) starting to look positive.

    Great Western is seeming to stick to its rising support and *will* break that falling resistance of the flag tomorrow *OR* break below the rising trend support. Yesterday and today's trade looks like it wants to stick with the rising trend from here.

    But normally one waits for confirmation. So tomorrow, if it looks like it wants to trade ~$0.92 or better, it's following the trend (today it's $0.94 and rises ~1.4 cents/day).

    Lots of other factors also saying we s/b bottomed now.

    Lynas is trying to move up and challenge $2 again, but it's not showing other indications of having bottomed or turned other than the low volume and price action at the moment. VBut with all the technical stuff we've mentioned, the downside is certainly quite limited. So if one didn't mind being a tad early, it seems a decent risk for *me*.

    If I wasn't "full up", I'd be buying GWMGF and LYSCF today, but I'm not saying that right for everyone or you. I'm always willing to accept risk and waiting and don't mind being a tad early.

    All of what I see today *may* be just the general uptrand that TB noted, so ... grains of salt (or potassium chloride, as the case may be) is suggested.

    HardToLove
    17 Feb 2011, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  •  
    "(today it's $0.94 and rises ~1.4 cents/day"

    Correction: "(today it's $0.90 and rises ~1.4 cents/day"

    Apologies!

    HasrdToLove
    17 Feb 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  •  
    As always, your input is appreciated, HT.
    17 Feb 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Here is a honey pot for the Molycorp MCP Bears:
    247wallst.com/2011/02/.../

    Insider Sells $305 Million in Molycorp Stock (MCP)
    Posted: February 17, 2011 at 4:34 pm
    You already knew about the insider sale secondary offering from the Molycorp. Inc. (NYSE: MCP) in last week’s key sale. This has hit the stock in recent trading days, but an SEC filing showed us something huge today as a reminder. One insider unloaded $305 million in stock.
    Craig M. Cogut, listed as a beneficial owner, sold 6,113,616 shares at $50.00 to generate a share sale of some $305,680,800.00 per the filing and the transaction date is February 16, 2011. After looking through the filing, this was actually PEGASUS CAPITAL LLC and affiliates of it that sold in the share sale.
    Still, this is amazing when you see the filing this far after that shares sale of last week. We might not have considered it since the secondary is the catalyst in the rear-view mirror but the filing did actually contribute to weakness in the stock at the end of the trading day. Shares closed down 2.5% at $47.65, barely above the lows of the day of $47.50.
    The investment group is not at all out entirely. After a 300% run since the Summer IPO, a sale can’t be a shock even for a company like Molycorp. Indirect ownership is still listed as 18,361,820 shares.
    The rare earth company is still very active, and now its float is much larger.
    JON C. OGG
    17 Feb 2011, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  •  
    This was inevitable. I bailed out of even my core holdings in MCP when it shot up into the high 50's. I have been carrying a Buy@ target since of $38 in my margin notes...

    MCP traded back down below the lows noted in that article AH this evening...
    17 Feb 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  •  
    MCP tradign at $46.30, down some more, this morning. Looks like nobody was fooled by the $50 secondary, and the lockbox is working against them at the moment.

    The Hot Money may have noticed the difference between "production" and "prediction", too.
    18 Feb 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Still hanging in for $39.00
    18 Feb 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Added some charting and notations to the top of the blog.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  •  
    www.marketwire.com/pre...

    UURAF in Washington D.C.

    Nothing like the prospect of a shower of taxpayer dollars to lift the fortunes of a junior miner.
    17 Feb 2011, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Still smarting from my sell of large portion of UURAF @.98...will go down as one of my greatest failures if this thing doesn't come back soon.
    17 Feb 2011, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Sure is hard to gauge this stuff right, isn't it? I bailed out of Greenland Minerals at a loss nearly a month ago because I decided they were too iffy in the REE world. A few weeks later the stock caught fire.
    18 Feb 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  •  
    (LYSCF),(LYSDY): Results from last evening's trading.

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM


    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

    Bill
    18 Feb 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Thanks, HTL.
    18 Feb 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  •  
    TB, I guess it was you who highlighted IAALF. I was late to the party, as usual, but am enjoying see it gain today. Up 8% over where it opened.

    BTW, UURAF is having another good day.
    18 Feb 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  •  
    IAALF is a long term play, imo, something I grabbed quick, then shoved in the sock drawer. I might consider it a trade at some point (and pick up some trading stock), if it shows it can handle it.

    I do believe I introduced it to the group, but its the least I can do. Several other nice stocks have been introduced by others. Its the idea behind an instablog like this one.
    18 Feb 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  •  
    An argument for the rarest rare earth. I liked it!!

    news.silverseek.com/Si...
    18 Feb 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Sallies is restarting a South Afrikan fluorspar mine...

    Re-starts are breaking out like a flu epidemic.
    18 Feb 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Why the general downdraft?
    18 Feb 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Just did a quick rundown of the sitrep...

    IAALF up 8.26% (Still volatile, lots of momentum for the moment)
    DCHAF up 4.49% (working inverse to the miners, interesting...)
    ALKEF up 3.63% (Still got some upward mobility, may extend...)
    NOURF up 3.57% (Ditto Alkane comment)
    UURAF up 2.63% (Lots of faith in Uncle Sugar to spend money)
    GOMRF up 1.42% (More stable than I thought it would be...)
    HUDRF up 1.11% (Sometimes runs against the tide...)
    TRER Flat

    LYSCF down .51% (Doldrums until March?)
    ARAFF down .77% (Continuing fading trend...)
    PMNHF down 1.42% (Volatility starting to settle toward $.4x baseline)
    GDLNF down 1.45% (Following the herd...)
    AVL down 1.69% (So much for the Analist Xpert...)
    MTCEF dwon 1.92% (Watching again, still want to add some...)
    MCP down 2.10% ($38 target is looking more likely...)
    GWMGF down 2.16% (May add more, studying...)
    QSURD down 2.18% (Going down like AVL, doesn't seem fair...)
    NEMFF down 2.57% (Pop has faded...)
    QREDF down 2.79% (Continuing down trend...)
    STZYF dwon 3.11% (Continuing " " ")
    TASXF down 3.22% (Could drop quite a bit, we'll see...)
    REE down 3.49% (No Comment)
    MLLOF down 6.49% (Also No Comment)
    18 Feb 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  •  
    MCP managed to keep this story off the Yahoo finance, but someone picked up on it. Moly off 4% on heavy volume.

    Here is the honey pot for the Molycorp MCP Bears today:
    247wallst.com/2011/02/.../

    Insider Sells $305 Million in Molycorp Stock (MCP)
    Posted: February 17, 2011 at 4:34 pm

    You already knew about the insider sale secondary offering from the Molycorp. Inc. (NYSE: MCP) in last week’s key sale. This has hit the stock in recent trading days, but an SEC filing showed us something huge today as a reminder. One insider unloaded $305 million in stock.
    Craig M. Cogut, listed as a beneficial owner, sold 6,113,616 shares at $50.00 to generate a share sale of some $305,680,800.00 per the filing and the transaction date is February 16, 2011. After looking through the filing, this was actually PEGASUS CAPITAL LLC and affiliates of it that sold in the share sale.
    Still, this is amazing when you see the filing this far after that shares sale of last week. We might not have considered it since the secondary is the catalyst in the rear-view mirror but the filing did actually contribute to weakness in the stock at the end of the trading day. Shares closed down 2.5% at $47.65, barely above the lows of the day of $47.50.
    The investment group is not at all out entirely. After a 300% run since the Summer IPO, a sale can’t be a shock even for a company like Molycorp. Indirect ownership is still listed as 18,361,820 shares.
    The rare earth company is still very active, and now its float is much larger.
    JON C. OGG
    18 Feb 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  •  
    Well, I went chicken mierde and put my powder in PNPFF at 4.17. I know, pretty boring and unimaginative.
    18 Feb 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  •  
    tfmetalsreport.blogspo...

    Something EVERYONE should read. This WILL affect PNPFF, perhaps strongly.
    18 Feb 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  •  
    OK, TB, at the risk of sounding obtuse, could you please interpret that article as it relates to PNPFF.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    PNPFF is heavily invested in gold, silver (pm generally) miners, and that situation in the silver market will affect them - in a big way, unless I miss my guess. Right now it is causing silver prices to skyrocket, but if JPM and their henchbanksters counterattack (with their allies, the bosses running the exchange he's talking about, combined with the shadowy figures of government regulators-cum-2Big2Fail enablers in the background), its a war, and though its going our way today (assuming one is invested in precious metals, their miners, and stocks like PNPFF or SNDXF or SLW, etc)...

    It could get dicey next week.

    One to keep an eye on, and a plan to be agile. Be advised that JPM&friends are adept at moving After Hours and Pre-Market to nail tons of stop loss orders, then scoop them up cheap, since they ARE often the market makers and have the power to do such things. There is a LOOOOOOOOONG narrative story behind this, but this is just the most recent skirmish in a very long war.

    Most of it does't impact us in the REE/Strat space, EXCEPT for a few stocks like Pinetree Capital, where the overlap is large.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  •  
    So, there could possibly be some big down-drafts? Or at least volatility?
    18 Feb 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Oh yes - both directions. Right now, it looks to be pushing up VERY quickly, and I doubt we will see a reversal in silver until next week...

    Probably, LOL.

    This story has a long and intricate narrative.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  •  
    I'm thinking the silver miners might be taking more of an interest in buying some more of the junior rare earth miners' properties as the precious metals boom continues.
    www.silvergrail.com/ne...
    18 Feb 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  •  
    www.gepower.com/about/...

    IAALF has suddenly gotten some prime backing. Adding more...
    18 Feb 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Joe Schaefer is always worth the read. Nice introductory level stuff, mentions one of my favorite long shots from my penny sock drawer, Greenland Minerals.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Very kind of you, TB. I think one thing we all share on this Concentrator and the QCs is that, with at least part of our funds, we all try to skate where the puck will be, not where it is. That's how I see GDLNF and Greenland itself...
    18 Feb 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Rare earths and other commodities seem to be letting off steam for now. Mostly on rumors about China weakness and new mines. This is absurd because the impact won't be felt for some time if true so its speculation. However, a lot of commodities are trending down. I'd avoid accumulation until you see a reversal back up. Especially since the stock market is moving up as hot money is rushing there now. Stocks, especially high growth tech, seem to be the winner for now and thus the best place to park your $ right now to counter inflation.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Agriculture may also be a good area to invest as cookie monster pointed out before on this blog.
    18 Feb 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Ran another update of the REE/Strat space, tracking downwind of the lunchtime dissemination of the various news, including the silver manipulation wars...

    Very different from this morning:

    IAALF up 14.29% (and soaring out of sight, hit of the day...)
    Alkane up 5.60% (marked improvement from this morning...)
    STZYF up 5.18% (!!!this is no trend and NOT to be trusted)
    DCHAF up 4.49% (glued to the same spot as this morning)
    NATUF up 3.31% (Tungsten still waiting in the wings...)
    NOURF up 1.98% (fading...)
    PNPFF up .11% (See silver story...)
    GOMRF Flat (and still more stable than expected...)

    Now for the nastiness, things are breaking down somewhat...

    LYSCF down .51% (same as morning, not volatile at all)
    HUDRF down 1.17% (so much for going against the tide...)
    GDLNF down 1.45% (same as morning)
    QREDF down 1.64% (marked improvement from morning...)
    NEMFF down 2.23% (pop is unpopped...)
    MTCEF down 2.29% (slightly more down...)
    ARAFF down 2.31% (fading fast...)
    GWMGF down 2.72% (stable, added more downside...)
    QSURD down 3.10% (moving with the pack, down...)
    PMNHF down 3.36% (near the pack leaders, heading down...)
    TASXF down 4.40% (accelerating...)
    MLLOF down 5.08 (No Comment)
    REE down 6.55% (No Comment)
    UURAF down 7.31% (BIG reversal, no trend, just a big spike...)
    AVL down 7.74% (Analist upgrade looks a bit ridiculous, now...)

    MCP down 5.29% (dropping quickly, no confidence in support...)
    18 Feb 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
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    Love the action in IAALF. It's my largest position -- in shares only, of course... In dollars, it's waaaayyy down the list!

    I think GE is a bloated company with absolutely dreadful management. But its individual subsidiaries have some very bright and motivated people working for them. Let's hope this substantive news forebodes even greater substance going forward.
    18 Feb 2011, 03:25 PM Reply Like
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    GE...part of the Axis of Evil. But I do like my IAALF pick up from a few weeks back.

    What do you guys make of GWMGF right now...performing a bit off recent trends.
    18 Feb 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
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    The way I'm reading it twofold, but TB likely has a better take.

    First it had a large run, so reverting to a lower price for a "refresh", especially when so many miners' share prices are struggling is expected. And we know about the negative view by Kaiser too.

    With a long weekend and turmoil in the middle east, lots of folks like to reduce exposure, so that can be a cause of the downdraft.

    Technically, it broke that trend line I have often mentioned, broke out of the downward channel and zipped right on past the Fibonacci at $0.83.

    Next stop I can see is $0.70-$0.72 without some positive news. I'm hanging on based on the considerations we've all heard and will likely add if it does make $0.7x and anything indicates a positive trend may be coming.

    *But*, part of that is because the prior times I was in it I exited on small profits too early several times. I decided not to do it again.

    So naturally, here I am at $0.98/$0.99 saying "Not this time"!

    I'm in for the ride.

    HardToLove
    18 Feb 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
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    No REEs coming out of the ground except China (exporting restrictions) and Lynas with GWM (HREE) in the home stretch compared to most so fundamentally its a positive. HTL has the technicals to follow and he does a great job.

    To me its a hold and potential buy if it drops more.
    18 Feb 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
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    Glad to see someone else has left money on the table besides me! I am holding and not trying to get cute - though painful.

    Adding to UURAF on any opps...the more I look at recent news I think it will end up being really big there for them - wondered if this has had an affect on GW - perception they might take some of what was considered potential market for GW??? <<-------

    Also will be adding to IAALF...a bit of Lynas and holding ALKEF as they have shown some life. Looking for entry into Galaxy...I think. Decided to put CPST in my 401.
    18 Feb 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
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    GWM narrative is unchanged. Its easy to forget sometimes that this is a penny stock - and will, from time to time, react to pundit assaults like one. Great Western IS a junior with real infrastructure - actual customers - and a unique market position (which will change when Lynas comes on line later this year, but not in a destructive way)...

    Unlike the Lynas vs MCP story, GWM is not geared to go for massive planetary market share - never was, and only the most deluded ever saw them in that light. Their numbers are a small fraction of those bandied about by a MCP or Lynas...

    But they are also scaled to those numbers, and enter the battles with their facilities in Michigan and the UK built out and already running.

    Any investor who stumbled into GWM without doing due diligence and who THOUGHT they were buying into an MCP-killer was doomed to disappointment, sooner or later.

    I have mentioned several times that the hot money component is often prone to abrupt and random flights of fancy. In the current case, I believe we are seeing at least 10 points of the drop in their stock value as that hot money moving to a new destination, whether it be UCore or some play on silver, oil, etc. These people have the attention spans of a cloud of gnats.

    The rest of the drop could be broken down, logically, as equal parts reaction to unflattering punditry, geopolitical scares, and the timing facing a 3 day market holiday (something that hot money always flees from, in my experience).

    I will be watching Tuesday to add more to my already considerable store of Great Western stock, trading stock if nothing else that I can move in and out to generate profits from the visiting weak hands which will occasionally grace us with their presence over the next few years.

    The REE/Strategic minerals sector is going to resemble the dot.com event in some ways, and will go in cycles, puffing up, and draining down, until the sector matures. And mature it will, and probably much more rapidly than the dot.commers.

    All anyone can do is continue to educate themselves as to the facts, choose from the various narratives and chains of logic (many of them contradictory, of course), and place our bets.
    18 Feb 2011, 06:30 PM Reply Like
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    online.wsj.com/article...

    WTO to Force China to sell more Rare Earth

    BRUSSELS—The World Trade Organization on Friday will issue a preliminary report concluding that China has no legal right to impose export restrictions on nine raw materials, say trade diplomats and lawyers familiar with the case.

    The quotas, license requirements and other measures on industrial ingredients such as zinc and coke, many vital for making steel, have been a key irritant in China's simmering trade tensions with trading partners.

    "This [case] is a punch against China's trade policy," says Simon Evenett, an economist at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. "It means you can't use protectionism as a policy tool on natural resources."

    The raw-materials case, which follows a complaint filed in 2009 by Mexico, the U.S. and the European Union, doesn't concern China's sensitive export restrictions on 17 minerals known as rare earths, some of which are essential to the production of smartphones and other high-tech appliances. But a victory is likely to pave the way for the U.S. to file a separate WTO complaint on the rare-earths policy, trade analysts said...............con... in link
    18 Feb 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
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    China has already put into place a strong argument that their REE situation will include problems with environmental devastation, illegal mining, and domestic demand which is near to their current production levels - LOL, all of which are true, btw, and things they CANNOT truthfully say about some of the other items.

    This one is far from over...
    18 Feb 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
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    Thanks for the insights on GWMGF. I was wondering if I was the only one left holding it as it goes down, down, down. Its fundamentals are solid though so I'm in it for the long haul.
    18 Feb 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
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    I agree. Of course, its a lot easier for those of us who bought back last year when the price was about 15 cents, and who have taken profits from those levels...

    GWM may well have outrun its underlying business due to the hype surrounding the world REE situation, but I have seen them as a $1+ company by the end of 2011 for a long time.

    Part of what happens is that people invested in both GWM and MCP, experiencing the recent events with MCP, become disenchanted with the entire sector. As someone who wrote a bunch about the likely MCP fallout over the past 6 months, I have to admit to a certain feeling of inevitability. MCP's lockbox expiration HAD to occur - MCP's need to dilute to raise operating capital to ressurect their mothballed mine and build modern facilities HAD to happen - and all of it HAD to take years.

    Anyway, GWM is, I believe, catching some of the backflash from events occurring far from their door.
    18 Feb 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
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    Thanks, TB.

    One day I will relate to you guys the details from my "brilliant" maneuvering the past couple of days for your entertainment.

    Stay strong, Soldiers!!
    18 Feb 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
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    MCP at $44.45 AH...

    10th biggest decliner on the NYSE today...
    18 Feb 2011, 10:18 PM Reply Like
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    MCP is the most senselessly hyped stock I have seen in a while.
    19 Feb 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
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    There are more corporate transactions going on than usual. It might mean that it is a time to review the work done so far in order to fine tune or doublecheck the future plans.
    www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/br...
    19 Feb 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
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    I suspect most were taking profits on $50 strike puts they had bought on the cheap when the price was much higher. These puts could be purchased really cheaply when (MCP) was up in the $60 range and still cheaply when down in the near$50 range, as there was little time-value left.

    If the sellers had purchased MCP way below $50, they could buy the puts for an incremental cost of $3.10-$7.40 when MCP was up in the $60 range.

    Then they exercise the them during options expiration week (the week ending today), take in $50 and buy replacement shares, if desired, as low as ~$43 on Friday, or wait and see if it goes lower and buy. They could also hold longer-dated inexpensive calls from when MCP was down around $30-$40 and use those to acquire shares later on.

    Since the 5 or 6 I looked at all had $50 prices in the SEC filings, I suspect put exercise is what we saw happening.

    If we see filings in the near future from many of these same folks adding back in, we can be sure that's what happened.

    If we don't we an still surmise that a lot of it was the exercise of options since the high on the 16th was $49.94. When the market maker sold the options, he would naked short. When the put options are exercised, the market maker has covered the short position and his/her book is balanced. No additional in-market transactions are recorded.

    Given the hype around MCP, MSM television coverage and the fact that these folks that sold are likely pretty sharp, they knew price would deteriorate and planned accordingly.

    Just a (likely?) possibility.

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Feb 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
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    HTL wrote: Since the 5 or 6 I looked at all had $50 prices in the SEC filings, I suspect put exercise is what we saw happening.
    If we see filings in the near future from many of these same folks adding back in, we can be sure that's what happened.

    Isn't it more reasonable to think these were the $50 floor shares that sold into the open market from the lockbox? I read the filings as a ballooning of the float and a fund exodus from the stock. I really doubt these guys are taking a hit right now in hopes of jumping back in soon. By all metrics, Moly has been overvalued for a long time. Now if Moly announces a problem with the delayed quarter or the current construction, the thing could crash. It may not be off a cliff yet, but a lot of signs are there.
    It's all opinions HTL. And yours is as good as mine, but this thing is at a dangerous point IMO.
    And if your guess is right, how would the filings only show one side of your presumed trade?
    19 Feb 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
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    "Isn't it more reasonable to think these were the $50 floor shares that sold into the open market from the lockbox?"

    As I mentioned: "the high on the 16th was $49.94". That was the basis upon which I *surmised* that options might have been involved. Of course, if they are allowed to round on the SEC filings (I don't know), you might be right on target. I don't dispute they were coming out of the lockbox. AFAICT, it's not germane to the options issue though.

    "I read the filings as a ballooning of the float and a fund exodus from the stock"

    No argument there. But float occurs regardless of the method of sale. Seeing all prices equal and above the high for the day is what made me wonder.

    "I really doubt these guys are taking a hit right now in hopes of jumping back in soon".

    Agreed. I assume they took no hit at all. If I'm a holder at $30-$40 (or less if I'm in the lockbox?) and I can buy $50 puts for as low as $3.10 when MCP is trading at $64, my cost basis is $30-$40 (or less) +$x.xx per contract plus $3.10 per share plus trade fees. If I know it's overvalued and I don't know when or how far down it may go, cheap protection locking in a guaranteed profit is not "taking a hit". It is one form of risk management. I forego $3.10+expenses of profit for an assured return.

    The "jumping back in soon" was just a possible scenario. As I mentioned, the availability of long-dated calls was one way to do it *if* they want to get back in. Out of the money calls purchased when the stock was cheap would be worth a lot right now. They can be sold or exercised at a pre-determined strike price /at any time prior to contract expiration/.

    As an example, Jan '12 $30 strike calls could be bought for as little as $6.88 in December (12/3/10) of last year. If I'm prescient and long the stock and plan to unload it at a big profit and want to be able to get back in later at a good price, I can buy those calls and then sell or exercise them at any time.

    "And if your guess is right, how would the filings only show one side of your presumed trade"

    If the sales were exercise of put options, *and* I correctly understand them (I've been on a long an tortuous path and am still wending my way) ...

    Those are not executed in the open market. All options exercises are cleared by the OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) which stands between the counter-parties.

    Further ...

    When the put options are purchased, (possibly) from a market maker, they *can* immediately naked short the shares (options market makers are exempt from naked short limitations). I understand that this is the standard practice.

    In effect, the closing side of the trade you are hunting has (possibly) occurred already.

    At any time subsequent to that, market makers can cover those shorts or decide to defer and cover with the shares obtained when the puts are exercised.

    Either way, their profit is locked in from the premium they received.

    The option *holder* can either sell the options or exercise them or let them expire.

    Since the high on the 16th was $49.94 and the reported sale price was $50, I wondered if the shares disposed of over the highest market price might have been disposed of in other than an open market operation.

    Could be a private sale I guess.

    But if it wasn't, the likely scenario seems to me to be the exercise of the options. *If* the market makers had already covered their short positions at a much lower price (likely), they would immediately dump the shares resulting from exercise of options, possibly contributing to keeping price down.

    If they had not covered, they just use the shares to cover the still open short positions (which would have resulted in fails-to-deliver reports on the SEC reports).

    "It's all opinions HTL"

    Nope! As I stated, "I suspect most were taking ..."
    ......................... :-)) As a legal guy, you know "suspect" is different than "opinion". ;-))

    HardToLove
    19 Feb 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
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    www.thestreet.com/_yah...#

    The 3 sales I had bookmarked earlier were:

    The Moly Group Llc, 2,339,028 shares sold , $116.951,400 ($50.00ea)
    Mark Kristoff, Dir., 120,782 shres sold, $6,039,100 ($50.00 ea)
    Mark A. Smith, PR.CEO, Dir., 72,749 shares sold, $3,637,450 ($50.00 ea)

    insiderinsights.com might have further details, if any are available
    19 Feb 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
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    I don’t have a lot of experience with SEC Form 4’s, but I don't think these are option activity (I read that the action was on 2-16 - That's the date the bizwire notice took effect.) and I'm not sure where the $50 comes from. So at this point I'll just throw it out there: is this normal activity in Moly due the open lock box or is this a bigger deal?

    Here is the link:

    www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/br...

    click document then c127**_4x0.html to see the Form 4



    Filed 2-18-2011

    Resource Capital disposed 6,976,383 shares on 2-16-2011

    TNA Moly Group disposed 2,339,028 shares on 2-16-2011

    Mark Kristoff disposed 2,339,028 + 120,782 shares on 2-16-2011

    John Burba disposed of 33,225 shares on 2-16-2011

    John Ashburn disposed of 26,580 shares on 2-16-2011

    Jack Thompson disposed of 35,883 shares on 2-16-2011

    Brian Dolan disposed 6,976,383 shares on 2-16-2011 (See Resource Capital)

    Mark Smith disposed 72,749 shares on 2-16-2011 (over $1 million in value)

    Craig Cogut (Pegasus Capital) disposed 6,113,616 shares on 2-16-2011
    19 Feb 2011, 06:49 PM Reply Like
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    Here's a sample of Form 4.
    The $50 is the price found in Table 1.
    The D's stand for "disposed of" and "direct ownership share."
    I'm thinking that the insiders are suggesting to the public what constitutes a rich price for the stock.
    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...
    19 Feb 2011, 07:16 PM Reply Like
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    This is a good question for a stock broker.
    21 Feb 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
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    What I mean is did these guys take these shares in the secondary from Molycorp? Or did they just sell them. I posted an article on the Pegasus sale in my instablog; and this article notes the Smith sale:

    www.thestreet.com/_yah...


    But are the rest of these sales too?
    19 Feb 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
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    I don't see where the SEC forms get into that amount of detail. Maybe the corporation would answer your question. They must realize that a lot of investors are curious about this situation.
    phx.corporate-ir.net/p...
    19 Feb 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
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    Here's what Yahoo has under their Insider Transactions:

    Feb 16, 2011 COGUT CRAIG M
    Beneficial Owner (10% or more) 6,113,616 Indirect Sale at $50 per share. $305,680,800

    Feb 16, 2011 THOMPSON JACK EDWARD
    Director 35,883 Direct Sale at $50 per share. $1,794,150

    Feb 16, 2011 KRISTOFF MARK
    Director 120,782 Direct Sale at $50 per share. $6,039,100

    Feb 16, 2011 KRISTOFF MARK
    Director 2,339,028 Indirect Sale at $50 per share. $116,951,400

    Feb 16, 2011 BURBA JOHN L.
    Officer 33,225 Direct Sale at $50 per share. $1,661,250

    Feb 16, 2011 DOLAN BRIAN T.
    Director 6,976,383 Indirect Sale at $50 per share. $348,819,150

    Feb 16, 2011 SMITH MARK A.
    Officer 72,749 Indirect Sale at $50 per share. $3,637,450

    Feb 16, 2011 ASHBURN JOHN F. JR.
    Officer 26,580 Direct Sale at $50 per share. $1,329,000

    Feb 16, 2011 BHAPPU ROSS R.
    Director 6,976,383 Indirect Sale at $50 per share. $348,819,150

    www.thestreet.com/stor...#

    Including the over-allocation, the secondary offering called for 15.525million shares to clear at $50 on Feb. 16. The insider activity for that day exceeded that amount handily, at 22,694,629, all at the same $50 price... But I notice some double listing of sales, ie, some are "indirect" and others are "direct". I suspect that without duplicates, it totals the 15.525million shares, or close thereabouts.

    The wonder is not that the price has now dropped back to $44.xx, but that it has not dropped lower.
    19 Feb 2011, 08:48 PM Reply Like
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    As I recall, there were some fees associated with the sale of the stock, so the net amount was $47.xx, which was very close to where the stock traded on the 16th.

    This deal was announced on Feb 10, I believe, so it wasn't that much of a shock (the timing agrees with the normal rules, add 3 trading days from the date of the announcement, etc...).
    19 Feb 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
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    I have written to Molycorp many times when I held shares and since I sold them and have never received an answer. They are totally non-responsive to even my simplest questions.
    20 Feb 2011, 12:51 AM Reply Like
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    That's my understanding, Wed the 16th was when the action took effect. And the SEC put this announcement out Friday after 5pm with a three day weekend to follow. It seems very neatly arranged in that sense.
    20 Feb 2011, 01:03 AM Reply Like
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    Christmas! And I wanted to punch Curtis in his nose due to his measly little sale of shares.
    20 Feb 2011, 07:48 AM Reply Like
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    These were the lock up shares from the original investors who bought the Mine in 2009. The secondary is a bond, not convertible till 2014. Hope this helps~
    1 Mar 2011, 01:06 AM Reply Like
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    As for WHO was on the other side of all those sales...

    I don't know. I believe they have 30 days before they have to publish more details.
    19 Feb 2011, 08:53 PM Reply Like
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    TB,
    Thanks for some solid feedback on this. It appears to look like a lot of directors selling modest lots at once. I think it looks bad and I hope Moly will get pressured to explain this my Tuesday's open. It really would make more sense to get a press release for Moly rather than trying to judge the uncertainty on our own. We will see if they are that responsible.
    20 Feb 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
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    They may be constrained from fully responding due to the rules regarding the LockBox situation which is still in place.
    20 Feb 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
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    This concerted sale is very likely from the lock up period expiry. I venture to guess that no less than a few large institutions had arranged to take the other side of this trade. And not unlikely dark pool trading is involved.
    HTC is spot on: someone knew the stock would fall hard after the 2ndary shares and preferred announcements, and then with the 2/7 filing of the selling holders. He's likely capitalizing on it with call options. I think this someone will likely buy back just prior to earnings announcements coming up in March.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:53 AM Reply Like
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    Definitely. I have no doubt about that at all. The major portion of these shares are from the original lockbox which tied up all but a fraction of MCP shares since the IPO.

    Now that another lockbox is in place, though with very different requirments, in about 80 days we can expect another dramatic market spasm, including more dilution (this time the dilution was quite mild, just the preferred issue). The reaction to the sale of existing shares is overmuch, imo. We all knew that the hot money chasing just the few shares OUTSIDE the lockbox was fueling the mad valuations when it spiked into the $60'S. We also knew that the sophisticated venture capitalists would be selling a lot (but probably not all) of their stock when the SEC unlocked the lockbox. I was expecting a reality check, and I STILL think they have not gotten that yet (we still have a big lockbox situation, and no common stock dilution yet).

    I sold my last shares around $55, and I have a buy@ target of $38 right now (though DG's firm $39 is starting to look attractive).
    20 Feb 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
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    Well, based on what's been presented here, it seems less likely that put options were directly involved in these sales. And yesterday when I had open interest available at the $50 strike, I didn't see (meaning: I didn't add them all up, but the visual *aggregate* OI didn't *appear* to be) enough open contracts to come near to covering the shares disposed.

    Of course, this morning when I went to double check, those February options have expired (Saturday) and I can no longer see the open interest.

    So, I lay my suspicion to rest.

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 06:38 AM Reply Like
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    news.businessweek.com/...

    Another piece about recycling REEs in Japan.
    20 Feb 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
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    Just an observer here, and not up to speed. Moly has a $4 billion-ish market cap, and these insider sales of over $1 billion? Seems like a lot. Resource Capital and others taking profits from their investment/funding?

    blogs.forbes.com/natha.../

    blogs.forbes.com/natha.../
    20 Feb 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
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    Lower98, I can imagine how nervous they must have been sitting in that lock box watching the price soar but not being able to do anything. They now have some of their money (maybe more than the initial investment) out. Good for them they are quite possibly playing with house money now and will not be so nervous to sell.

    Pucker factor is over. Psychology has changed.
    20 Feb 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
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    I can't recall the exact amounts, but I believe this sale puts all of them in a double or triple (or more, was it 4 times?) return for their total investment.

    Plus they still hold a ton of stock.
    20 Feb 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
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    sorry:

    www.resourcecapitalfun...
    20 Feb 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
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    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

    Latest pdf of Lynas transactions from the ASX, large investors...

    Morgan Stanley is moving big numbers both ways.
    20 Feb 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
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    What do you make of MS having those interests?
    20 Feb 2011, 03:36 PM Reply Like
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    If this helps, I've read somewhere that Morgan Stanley has global mining interests including Australia. I'm guessing we can't read too much into their stock transactions until something dramatic happens.
    www.miningweekly.com/s...
    www.watoday.com.au/bus...
    20 Feb 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
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    Given my jaundiced view of the nefarious activities of C, GS, JPM and MS, you can imagine...

    We should not forget that though they also trade as representatives of their retail clients, they also do this for each other...
    20 Feb 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
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    They seem to be communicating with BHP Billiton, the largest Australian miner, regarding possible acquisitions in Australia.
    www.watoday.com.au/bus...
    www.businessweek.com/n...
    20 Feb 2011, 04:29 PM Reply Like
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    Sarcastic Processor wrote: ..This is just the reporting of the sales from the secondary offering priced at 50 on 10 Feb, with trade date of 11 Feb and closing (a.k.a. settlement) date at the standard L+3 of 16 Feb. And there is double counting due to listing the same sales under different partners. In total, it amounted to 13.5 million plus a little over 2 million over-allotment. The rest of the insider shares are still locked up.

    This is the best explanation I have heard. Any thoughts?
    20 Feb 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
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    LOL, of course I think he's right, its what I said earlier.

    This is actually pretty merciful. They could have just started feeding huge blocks of stock into the open markets, which would have been more disruptive and over a longer period of time. This way the stock has just the psychological impact on the markets, while it passes as quietly as possible from one large investor to another, and at a price which was close to the market price at the time (though I would consider that a cause-and-effect relationship).

    Next time their lockbox pops open, we can expect a further sell-off, though this time I would expect them to limit any sales so that they keep sufficient shares to maintain control. Assuming they also dilute again at that point (which I expect), it might be possible to try to extimate the impact, but I would expect it to be a lot less than this large sale, perhaps half this size or even smaller.
    20 Feb 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
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    Does anyone have any information on what is happening with size of the short positions? Sell the stock at a high and then short it?
    20 Feb 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
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    Did you see what HTL was writing up above?
    20 Feb 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
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    Yes, but is there any data on what is happening with the SIZE of the short positions? If they are trending up....
    20 Feb 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
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    Daily Finance has a description of the short interest.
    Reuters compares the puts and calls.
    www.dailyfinance.com/c...
    www.reuters.com/financ...;MCP N 39&expDate=
    20 Feb 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
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    That daily finance chart says it was running steeply upward...

    But could that have changed now that the big sale has been accomplished?

    I'm not sure if I would trust that as a trend.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
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    That's exactly what I was looking for Valley... Thanks!

    DATE .... # Short Shares
    Nov 30 .... 4,156,578
    Jan 31 .... 8,602,980

    That's a 107% increase in two months. I am surprised there are not more shorts.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
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    MCP still has the majority of its shares either ensnared in some sort of trading restriction/lockbox, or closely held by a small handful of investors/institutions. For them to have over 20% now short...

    Its a very odd situation for a company with this size market cap and this much daily volume. The market makers MUST be maintaining a large position just to make the trade volume flow.

    LOL, I see a major mess, and want no part of it at these prices and with the doubts in how the future will pan out.

    I believe they will need every penny of the millions they plan to spend on a jumbo-size new processing plant, etc. The plant is just the beginning. They must also renovate the mine, perform an extensive survey program (which is rather backwards, this is usually the FIRST thing a junior miner does, but these are hardly "usual" conditions), and bujild several large AMP facilities (focused primarily upon magnet production, one assumes).

    The several articles seeking to put forth scenarios in which MCP might show a "profit" next quarter are ludicrous, even at the new, higher REO prices. This company HAS to get into full-blown capital investment mode in a HUGE way, and soon, or implode. We can only hope that this insider stock sale puts to rest MOST of their stock-twisting so that they can cease playing paper games and start building something real.
    20 Feb 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
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    www.nasdaq.com/aspxcon...

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
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    NIce data HT... thanks :)
    20 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
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    (MCP): Related to User's query about short interest is the latest fails to deliver report. Highly edited for brevity and readability (almost)

    SETTLEMENT DATE|SYMBOL|QUANTITY (FAILS)|PRICE
    20110118|MCP|5824|46.13
    20110119|MCP|43091|47.36
    20110120|MCP|36528|45.05
    20110121|MCP|15297|45.59
    20110124|MCP|56858|42.99
    20110125|MCP|5698|46.82
    20110126|MCP|189656|46.89
    20110127|MCP|143667|45.85
    20110128|MCP|28927|46.75
    20110131|MCP|45187|45.89

    Many of these *could* relate to options market makers and would be more useful if we could see the options actions in puts over the whole time and price spectrum.

    But as it is, its just another "sorry we can't give you this in a timely fashion in spite of HFT and other high power computers in the world - you just have to muddle through as best you can on incomplete and tardy information" data point that we can *try* to integrate and use to extract some intelligence through our powers of deduction.

    In total disgust with our "regulatory bodies",
    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
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    (MCP): And for the prior period.

    If anyone feels further would be useful, I can go back as far as needed, make charts, etc. Ditto for short interest.

    Comparables for options takes a lot more work and can't get historical data for options that have expired, but can be tracked from this point forward, including historical activity, for any options not yet expired.

    Labor intensive with my current tools, but possble if *needed*.

    HardToLove

    STTLDATE|SYM|QTY(FAILS...
    20110103|MCP|86124|49.90
    20110104|MCP|26570|57.50
    20110105|MCP|44744|61.80
    20110106|MCP|2922|60.70
    20110107|MCP|79503|52.86
    20110110|MCP|31984|54.40
    20110111|MCP|1016|54.61
    20110112|MCP|1042|53.24
    20110113|MCP|916|52.40
    20110114|MCP|8715|48.87
    20 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
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    User, HTL, TP, others.... Here's the very latest short interest info on Molycorp. The day, or information, matches the same as the last Jan. 31 date Hard posted. What caught my eye is the increase in % of daily trading volume, verifying User's suspicions.

    shortsqueeze.com/?symb...
    20 Feb 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
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    (LYSCF),(LYSDY): Aussie marekt opened generally lower and Lynas followed in early trading. From open A$1.92, now $1.91.5, high 1.925, low 1.905.

    But only 4MM shares so far and it's only 18:45 EST.

    HardToLove
    20 Feb 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  •  
    A trading halt at White Canyon Uranium (WCULF). I see speculation about something involving Denison.
    20 Feb 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  •  
    Please go to the new Concentrator:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
    20 Feb 2011, 09:41 PM Reply Like
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