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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Feb 19, 2011 145 comments
    Feb 20, 2011 9:23 PM | about stocks: ARAFF, LYSCF, MCP, REE, GWMGF, AVL, QSURD

    This is one I sketched as a demonstration piece at Warner Robins Air Base last year.  The young airmen were very interested participants.

    Just got through looking over the Aussie stocks, and they are looking weak as of now (about mid-afternoon Monday in Sydney).

    Lynas is down 1.81%, though up slightly from its low earlier in the morning.
    Alkane is down 3.5%, and steady at that level.
    Northern M. is down 3.6%.
    Arafura is down 5.16%. 
    Themes: rare earth Stocks: ARAFF, LYSCF, MCP, REE, GWMGF, AVL, QSURD
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Comments (145)
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  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    It appears that Lynas Corps basket of rare earths has increased in price yet again.
    21 Feb 2011, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Rational?
    21 Feb 2011, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Well you shouldn't be surprised, China is closing down all the illegal mines and forcing a merger with State national companies. The process has just started
    21 Feb 2011, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    "The process has just started."

     

    Thats a very good point. Expect prices to continue in one direction only and declines in stock prices to be relativly short lived for those closest to production.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Good point, omg.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Wow! IIRC, it was $80.40? A 9.7% increase $88.20. It looks like their FCF should start to move quite nicely as production ramps up.

     

    From their site, "Process commissioning is currently scheduled to commence on 7 March 2011" and they still say everything is on schedule.

     

    So in a couple weeks, +/- a day or two, I would expect our PPS will take a decidedly different bent, if it doesn't do it sooner.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Also another food for thought. Don't think $88 per kg is "expensive"

     

    Its not its damn cheap do you know why? At current prices, the amount of rare earth require for each Toyota Hybrid equates to around $12 per car.

     

    Now think about it....is Toyota going to scrimp for 12 dollars? Infact i am willing to bet Toyota wont even mind paying 100 dollars per car AS LONG THE SUPPLY IS RELIABLE ~!

     

    $88/ kg is still a bargain!
    21 Feb 2011, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I believe REE's would fall into that econ category of very elastic.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Oops, inelastic. After looking at that comment CRS began to clear and I thought it best to check wikipedia. My gut told me I made a mistake, it works better than my mind sometimes.

     

    ...an "inelastic" variable describes one which does not change much in response to changes in other parameters.

     

    ie.... Demand remains constant or only slightly effected while price goes up.

     

    Class dismissed. Teacher has a riot to get to.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure the $12.00/Toyota Prius estimate is correct. The Toyota Prius use 2.2lbs. of neodynium in the hybrid motor, and 22-33 lbs. of lanthanum in the battery pack. I recall, and I would have to go back and do some research, that total REE costs for a Prius is around $300; still not significant in the overall price.
    21 Feb 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    And getting more of a concern as prices rise? Toyota, IIRC, did announce trying to develop motors w/o REEs, but were having trouble controlling the motors. I realize that strategic supply-chain reliability might be the major driver, but ...

     

    Plus, as John Petersen has pointed out in many of his articles, the auto industry is absolutely *anal* about cost on every level.

     

    I'd be cautious about dismissing even small increases in even small portions of total cost.

     

    I might be wrong though.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cost becomes a critical concern IF the competition does not share your cost structure. The Japanese have based their entire "industrial miracle" upon gaming this truism, and with great success. Now that they are on the other end of the same strategy, they are scrambling.

     

    IF the Chinese manage to force the world to move all their REE-intensive industry onto their land and their factories, this would be a real problem for the Japanese.

     

    Some applications are such heavy users for REEs (large wind turbines, for instance) that the subsidy for domestic Chinese production (cheaper prices kept artificially low to attract might make or break the equation. For lesser things like hybrids, it would be important to some extent, but probably NOT critical. Toyota, btw, has been researching alternatives to permanent magnet electric motors for about 20 years, without notable success... Recent announcements are, as often is the case, made into a vacuum and treated as "news" whether it really is "new" or just re-hashed information from a 1978 issue of Popular Mechanics.
    21 Feb 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I think many will pay the extra price for Japanese quality over Chinese quality goods. Probably enough to support the Japanese market if it becomes a price issue of a couple hundred dollars. When it hits thousands I would be concerned.

     

    Of course if the chinese have to buy REE's on the open market as manufacturing increases beyond thier supply capabilitys then it becomes a mute point. I have no idea when that would occure but they are not producing electric cars, that I know of, just yet and if they are there is not much quantity. Ramp up that business and lets see how long thier REE supply holds out before they are on the market with everyone else. Just a thought.
    21 Feb 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    They are rolling out a program (KNDI) for urban electric cars with fast-swap battery design.

     

    I don't recall plans to export it. "A Better Place" has a version outside China that might provide competition, but Petersen thinks KNDI has a better chance of success, at least in China, IRC.

     

    seekingalpha.com/symbo...

     

    Both Pocari and Petersen have some articles on it.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    That's what is so great about this group. Mere seconds ago I was ignorant. Now I am educated as long as my CRS does not kick in returning me to some level of ignorant once again. I'll remember the cars just not the manufacture.
    21 Feb 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Obvious answer to the problem of long recharge times (and lack of recharging stations scattered around the landscape in sufficient numbers). Reminds me of the swap stations for propane gas cylinders... COULD work, though my experience with such things is that these battery packs can be worth thousands and thousands of dollars (unlike a propane cylinder which is sworth squat). People will steal anything sufficiently valuable...

     

    I have recently been looking into an alternative, which is a very OLD technology, ie, recharging batteries using powerful DC current. The new Leaf is designed to be recharged in 1 of 3 ways - 20 hour charge time using 110 volt, 10 hour charge time using 220 volt, and 30 minute charge time using DC charger.

     

    The obvious answer, unfortunately, is NOT the DC charger, due to its cost (about triple the cost of the entire car)...

     

    But why not line up about a dozen of these DC chargers, and rent them to EV drivers who pull into your "gas/recharge station"?

     

    A 15-20 minute charge will get the battery pack back to 80% capacity, which would be plenty for most purposes. Even a quick 5minute charge would probably be sufficient to add enough range to get back home.

     

    Someone will open these things, and make a fortune, of course.
    21 Feb 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    You'll need to review some of those articles since I would undoubtedly forget some details, but ...

     

    The (KNDI) plan is for urban areas with many conveniently located automated fast swap stations. KNDI owns the batteries and is responsible for charging them - the end-user just pulls in waits a few minutes and the whole battery pack is replaced in a slide in tray.

     

    With that plan, I assume stealing out of the car would be difficult (certainly they have taken tamper resistance into consideration), and each station could either have the sophisticated equipment on-site to recharge or ship to a central charging station, receiving replacement packs from that station.

     

    With the population density in the targeted areas, sounds very feasible.

     

    Again, my memory might not be up to snuff on all the details.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In any country with labor rates like ours (or even Mexico), it would never fly. Note the self-serve craze in retail of all kinds. Even unskilled sales clerks and bank tellers are being phased out.

     

    Might work OK in China. I wonder how much wear and tear it would entail on the vehicle and the parts. Battery connectors in even simple conventional batteries are a key wear item, and that's with them being wrenched on only every few years, not every day.

     

    If they create cars meant to have these batteries swapped in and out thousands of times, I guess the design could be built with sacrificial parts that would be replaced as they wear out, like brake shoes.
    21 Feb 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I agree, Hard, that prudence in the auto industry is as intense or even more intense than other industries. That's why Toyota is trying to make a REE-less engine. Don't know what they can do about making a REE-less battery, which is a much greater cost than the REEs used in the engine.

     

    (We also have to remember that REEs are not just used in engines and batteries, but also in many other parts of cars.)

     

    But, I believe this is more long term thinking than say, beyond the next 10 or 15 years. You're more of a car enthusiast than I am, but I would wager that Toyota is more concerned about REE supplies during the next few years, more so than 10 or 15 years out. By then, there will likely be a glut of REEs.

     

    I have read where the $300 of REEs (again, I'm not completely certain of this cost, especially since REEs have soared) in a Prius is currently an acceptable price of the total price. I believe I may even have a personal email from John Petersen to that effect.
    21 Feb 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Kandi Corp (KNDI) is a very attractive investment, long term. I have a few shares on the board for tracking purposes, even pocketed some $ because of recent interest, quite possibly stirred up by John Petersen's article. Pacari's comments and his first hand views were fascinating. Kandi has an incredible and quite enviable business model, and an owner/CEO with very deep pockets, plus subsidizing of the Chinese goverment.

     

    I was lucky enough to stumble upon Kandi Corp a few months before Petersen's article; believe I wrote about it in Quick Chat. Something like a go cart manufacturer turned battery maker that now makes small EVs and also potentially will have 7/11 swap out stations to boot, with Chinese subsidy!
    21 Feb 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Catalytic converters use precious metals and also rare earths.

     

    Much of the debate over REEs has to do with the idea that they "should" be cheap...

     

    Just because they HAVE been cheap for about 15 years while the Chinese sucked all the oxygen out of the room.

     

    This bizarre entitlement mentality is common. Listen to people complain about the cost of gasoline when it abruptly adds 25 cents per gallon.

     

    This sort of emotional reaction often echoes throughout the culture, until it becomes the stuff of urban legend.

     

    From time to time geopolitical events drive prices - both UP and DOWN in the case of oil, of course - and with predictable reactions on both ends of the pendulum. We all remember the 70's oil shock, when President Carter promised a new decade of technology that would see us in electric cars powered by windmills by 1985! LOL, not exactly, but that was a given if you believed the pundits and xperts of the day (of course, the same guys were also telling us that all oil reserves were going to be exhausted in 12 years, too, and that we were confronting a dire threat of a coming ice age...)

     

    REE's are the current "market shock". After a while the new pricing will settle down to being simply "expensive", and their economic impact will revolve around supply and demand vs geopolitical games and price.
    21 Feb 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Individual batteries are not swapped. The whole tray is swapped out, batteries included.

     

    The implication of this strategy is that a "bus connector" is included as part of the tray with a mating part on the frame. Those parts could easily be replaced as needed with only one or two bolts holding them in position on a boss.

     

    It's automated - custom equipment designed for the task. Might have one operator that slides the apparatus up, flips a switch , ... or it may be a "bay" arrangement that is fully automated - I can't recall.

     

    Anyway, in either case labor is minimal, wear on batteries from mechanical abrasion doesn't occur and the wear points on the electrical circuits would be limited to a single compound assembly on the car frame and one on the battery tray.

     

    There are a couple potential addtitional wear points on the rack for the tray, but these should be quite long-lived and easily replacable too - a couple standard bolts for eahc "hanger" and lock assembly.

     

    Time to do the swap is less than you'd spend filling your gas tank too.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    My argument against development of motors without REEs is the development is still many years away as its not easily solved and also even if they do develop the technology is it economical?

     

    By the time they develop that technology we would be long gone and sold out of our rare earth holdings catching up on Luxury cruises putting names to faces on this forum
    21 Feb 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I'm aware of the concept, all hybrids and EV's use gangs of smaller batteries (hence the term "battery pack"). I was just alluding to the longstanding maintenance issues which occur moving heavy batteries in and out of connectors, whether individually or collectively. No doubt it CAN be done (it is every day, even when, as now, the batteries are sitting beneath you and your passengers backsides as in the Leaf).

     

    There's a similar reason why we never went along with some of the early automotive designs that called for swapping out the entire fuel tank (rather than pouring fuel into a permanent tank). The last time I saw this sort of thing seriously considered was for a CNG design, where it almost made sense, and for a Hydrogen design, where it did not.

     

    In this case they are looking to solve a TIME problem rather than a logistical one. The DC technology could offer that solution, and I suspect the time delay would be comparable - and without the potential maintenance issues. Anyone who has ever had to cope with a cross-threaded bolt in their oil pan might appreciate that even a highly automated system requiring only a single bolt be removed can cause trouble...

     

    The mechanical wear involved would be between the mating connectors, of course, not the batteries (baring incident from frequent handling, something the battery packs may tolerate pretty well, but its also something I doubt was in the original design testing for any current models)... But then, we are talking about an entire new class of EV.

     

    Its also a process which would not lend itself to a self-serve regimen, whereas a plug-in DC charger surely does. Which would be faster, a charging station with a dozen chargers, capable of servicing a dozen customers simultaneously, with zero workers and zero labor invested, or a dozen cars waiting (like at a quick lube station) to drive into a service bay where the workers can swap out the battery pack?

     

    Theoretically, it should never take longer than 5 or 10 minutes to change your oil...

     

    In reality, it is rarely that fast, even when the shop is not busy.

     

    I believe that this system may present problems they have not foreseen, and costs which may make the option uneconomical, even under the unique urban environments of major Chinese cities.
    21 Feb 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Trip: That's exactly J. Petersen's contention; that this concept is a looooong way from working here. But, in China, the concept makes great sense. Now.
    21 Feb 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    OMG any consideration on where we want to take that cruise yet?
    21 Feb 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I don't think OMG yet knows about the 12/21/12 Renegades Rendezvous...where the world will end first!
    21 Feb 2011, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I need to get reservations at the hotel. Do you have info on that you can send me via messaging. Wife is going too.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I am not sure if GW will still be buying at current pps levels. We need a good pop for them to foot the bill.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Most windmill/wind generator turbines utilize roughly 2 tons REE each if I'm not mistaken.
    21 Feb 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Sure, Guns. I'll try to get that info off to you tomorrow, after I get a tooth yanked. Can handle that one, maybe! BTW, did you know J. Petersen and his wife are going to be there? Pretty sure Mark Bern and his wife, and maybe Rocks, too. Have to get working on J. Lounsbury to come. He loves this kind of location.

     

    My good friend the archeologist, who basically discovered the tomb of Yax K'uk Mo' the "alleged" founder of Copan, will most likely be giving us a tour of the site. I'm hearing rumors the park will be opened up that night.

     

    21 Feb 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Tooth yanked!!! Did the root canal not work? No drinking from straws afterwards, no smoking, and no hickies on the girls. You have to keep the blood clot in the socket and any suction type of action will loosen it causing it to fall out and then you will end up with a dry socket.

     

    Dry socket means the wet blood clot gets lost and then the bone is exposed to the air, hot and cold drinks and your in pain. LOTS of pain and pain meds will not relieve it. You will need it packed with a gauze soaked in clove oil and it will cost you more money depending upon your insurance. Of course you will pay anything to get a dry socket packed. Money will not matter.

     

    Best of luck Buddy, not trying to scare you just trying to warn you of the possible problems. Fact is the extraction is easy, be careful afterwards.
    21 Feb 2011, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Rye whiskey and black pepper. Good for what ails ya.
    21 Feb 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I know Guns. Two weeks from now comes a root canal, too. On antibiotics right now. You were right about the abcess. Pretty soon, I'll have to move to Pennsyltucky...to fit in.
    21 Feb 2011, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Let me guess, your Irish too!!
    21 Feb 2011, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    A wee bit, laddy. Mostly Hungarian.
    22 Feb 2011, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ditto.
    22 Feb 2011, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    TB, you are a Magyar as well?
    22 Feb 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nope, sorry, misplaced response, I too am planning to go to Copan.

     

    My ethinic background is half German, half Cherokee.
    22 Feb 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    I didn't know you were coming, too, Trip. Terrific!
    22 Feb 2011, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I too have a bit of Cherokee in my line...
    See: RainH20 = Rainwater

     

    A bit of Scots-Irish in the mix as well

     

    So, what you have here is a blond hair blue eyed Indian!
    22 Feb 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF),(LYSDY): Last evening, it looked like Lynas might make a substantial drop on the ASX as price weakened quite early.

     

    Last evening: From open A$1.92, now $1.91.5, high 1.925, low 1.905

     

    Lynas pps did make a scary low before it closed, going down to A$1.865 while the high remained unchanged. But it rallied back to close off just 2 cents at A$1.91.

     

    Results from last evening's trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21
    Last....... 1.910
    $+/-...... -0.020
    Bid......... 1.900
    Offer..... 1.910
    Open.... 1.920
    High...... 1.925
    Low...... 1.865
    Vol 29.729MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    From 2/8:
    U.S. AM 2/4/11........ 2/7/11..... 2/8/11
    Last...... 1.770........ 1.815...... 1.820
    $+/-....... 0.020........ 0.045...... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.765........ 1.810...... 1.815
    Offer..... 1.770........ 1.820....... 1.820
    Open.... 1.780........ 1.790....... 1.850
    High...... 1.790........ 1.830....... 1.850
    Low...... 1.755........ 1.785....... 1.800
    Vol 31.426MM 30.677MM 29.656MM

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    HTL, Where ever Lynas goes its win/win for me....Down because of some irrational panic about war in Libya i get to accumulate more. Up? My net worth increases =)
    21 Feb 2011, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.smh.com.au/busines...

     

    Hyundai looks to secure rare earth supplies
    February 21, 2011 - 11:48AM
    Hyundai, South Korea's top carmaker, said that it was seeking to secure rare earth metals used in electric and hybrid cars, as the industry braces for a possible shortage of the minerals.

     

    Rare earth metals like neodymium are used in the powerful magnets in motors that are a key component for electric and hybrid cars. China produces 97 per cent of the world's rare earth metals, but Beijing set 2010 export quotas 40 per cent lower than 2009 levels, raising alarm among buyer nations.

     

    Hyundai, the world's fifth-biggest carmaker along with Kia Motors, proposed in a regulatory filing on Friday a change in its articles of incorporation to "secure resources for the development of eco-friendly vehicles..........
    21 Feb 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I think that some of the miners closest to production have opportunities to get some of the users of REEs to cough up the dough to move the mines forward in return for contracts for product. I think this might start happening more than it did with (lynus/Moly) cant remember which. CRS sucks. Or was It just a dream.
    21 Feb 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Arafura also published a big increase in their projected REE basket value. It trimmed their losses yesterday as well.

     

    One thing behind Lynas' basket increase was their decision to drift their open pit more towards the Duncan Deposit which has higher proportions of HREE's. Richer mix, higher price. If anything their market estimates are conservative, every time I have compared their figures to the various sources (Pele Mountain publishes a price list for REE's, for instance), they have been conservative estimates.

     

    Also, Lynas has yet to publish charge-out prices for their LAMP metal and alloy production. The basket they publish now refers solely to REOs (rare earth oxides) as concentrates coming from the Mount Weld plant. Metals and custom alloys command a much higher price, of course.

     

    So we will see a distinct stair step upward in their income - first when they begin shipping REO's in a few weeks, presumably mostly to Sojitz and their other customers with existing supply contracts, and then come September when the LAMP starts up with REE metals and alloys.

     

    All the existing estimates and data is based on the incomplete picture of Lynas just operating a mine and concentrating oxides...

     

    Which is a very proper and conservative way to view their business, but its a good idea to keep reality in the backs of our minds while we wade through the inevitable balance sheet analyses that some will try to use to drive down their stock price when the startup phase does not immediately put them into a net profit.
    21 Feb 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Another mistake people make is there that They hear Global rare earth market is worth 12 billion dollars and they look at Lynas and say because their market cap is around 3 billion THEREFORE its over valued. This is a mistake IMHO. Doing that calculation is just a SNAPSHOT of the CURRENT global market at CURRENT prices. Note my emphasis on CURRENT.

     

    AS we can see today the world rare earth prices has increased again and so the Global Market Prices getting bigger and bigger each month. Why is the Global Rare Earth pricing increasing each month? Well, ask yourself Is Honda,Toyota, Hyundai all this multi billion corporation Fussed about paying 10 dollars of rare earth for the Hybrid vehicles? Is apple fussed about paying 1 dollar of rare earth for the up and coming Iphone 5? NO WAYY.

     

    21 Feb 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Last year i was going on 3 weeks Holiday to Beijing and Shanghai.....What Amazing sight.......Millions of Chinese swarming around the city walking along the streets and shopping centers....I felt so suffocated living there because everyone was pushing shoving trying to go about their business hustling and trying to make a living. There was so many black heads its like watching a awarm of ants everywhere.

     

    And you guys know what......each and everyone of them i say 85% were a carrying phones and all of them were smartphones!
    Think about China internal demand for rare earth!
    21 Feb 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here's a little bit of news about Chinese demand.
    www.chinamining.org/Ne...
    21 Feb 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » China claims to use 60% of all REE production, but I think that the real number is somewhere south of 50% (LOL, their Tongs used to grab quite a lot of their REE production, and smuggle it out of the country).

     

    Even so, China is almost certainly the world's largest industrial customer for REE's, and they are also one of the largest consumer nations of the end products.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Great article. Valley Boy if you ever get a chance to go to Shanghai please go you just have to see it to believe it that CHina internal demand for rare earth is insatiable!
    21 Feb 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    This is the "rubber hitting the road" reality that makes good REE stocks appear like a stone-cold lock to me. Throw in India and you have a huge, robust market. Its like oil in the 1970s.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I could go over to Chinatown in San Francisco one of these days to get a glimpse of what you mean, omg, and report back to you. Come to think of it, I haven't been there in how many years?
    21 Feb 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The dirty little secret about REE pricing is that even when China was enforcing their ban on exports, the price was being quietly manipulated by large corporations (with the aid of the Japanese government) to keep prices under control. Just as the U.S. has a large oil reserve which we have been known to tap to settle down markets (and prices), the Japanese government had a large stockpile which they opened up when China stopped shipping (and particularly when the Chinese Tongs stopped smuggling) REE's. The large Japanese corporations also have private stockpiles.

     

    China publishes low-ball prices for their own geopolitical goals. They are playiing a long-term mind game with Western companies which have not yet handed over every tech secret they own. THIS is the primary goal for China, not higher prices for REEs (in fact, they have artificially suppressed REE prices for 2 decades to pursue their far more important geopolitical goals). Its time to start ignoring pundits and xperts who want to point at 2005 pricing for REEs as if those were some sort of "reality", and figure out what REE's WOULD have cost today had a free market set the prices and the world was all operating their own mines free from geopolitical schemes.

     

    Mountain Pass closed down because it was unprofitable to operate, primarily because of Chinese plans to rule the planet, but also because they were (at the time) about to have to embark on a massive build up of new technology and environmental protection. The current plans, which may in the end spend $1billion to accomplish those goals, is a clear indication that REE prices are NOT overpriced (in general), but still being subsidized by Chinese geopolitical games and Japanese government/corporate stockpiles (which, however, are shrinking fast).

     

    It will be close to 2020 before we see a mature REE industry and some sort of "normalized" price structure, IF then.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    YES spot on! You got it. People make a fatal flaw when they say normal rare earth prices use to be $12.00 per kg they haven't thought about the fact these prices are ARTIFICIALLY DEFLATED prices created by China. These prices are not true equilibrium market prices. China was willing to sacrifice Profits and their environment to be achieve their goal of been technologically advanced.

     

    We are in interesting times my fellow rare earth comrades.....in fact no one really knows what is the fair value of rare earths!
    21 Feb 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jack Lifton came back from several Chinese REE confabs and reported last year that they might be looking to create an "REE Exchange", where the REEs could go through a free market price discovery...

     

    LOL, I think that was one of his more delusional concepts, personally, because the LAST thing China wants is for REEs to operate in a free market.

     

    Soon after that visit, China cracked down and began assembling its REE Cartel, which is now approaching singularity...

     

    ...So much for the idea that China would create a free market to enable REE price discovery!

     

    LOL.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    HAhahahahahahahahaha ROFL

     

    Right now as we speak Men with red arm bands are going to illegal rare earth mine kicking out the thugs out and unifying all the mines.

     

    From the news i heard China want to have 3 or 4 Corporations controlling their rare earth. Pretty much forming rare earth cartels.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I can see REE's price manipulation.

     

    Fortunately it will not be down like silver. It will be up, providing Chinas company's with a financial advantage over competitors. Fortunately the price of REE's in products is such a small part of the total equation.
    21 Feb 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    I'm wondering what the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will mean for REEs. Higher fuel prices means more interest in electric/hybrid cars. Higher fuel prices could also mean an economic slowdown and less interest in REEs. Interesting times ahead!!
    21 Feb 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Let me have an educated guess on this one, the Rare earth companies share prices will drop due to irrational panic BUT the prices of the actual rare earths starts increasing due to potential "disruption" of supply
    21 Feb 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    I'm looking for an attractive entry point for both Parker Hannifin, UQM and others, for exactly that reason.

     

    A recent example demonstrating the interest you mention, "UQM Technologies Supplying Electric Drive Motors for Audi A1 e-tron Test-fleet Build".

     

    "The UQM PowerPhase engine range is a lightweight electric drive motor and controller. This power-dense, brushless, permanent-magnet engine range can be supplied with up to 300 Nm of peak torque and 125 kW of peak power. The controller features CAN bus, serial communications and diagnostic capability.

     

    In addition to a full line of electric propulsion systems, UQM recently completed the validation of its volume production lines with annual capacity of 40,000 units".

     

    www.uqm.com/news_artic...

     

    There's always more than one way to play the factors that are affecting REE prices.

     

    The pps of UQM took a spike on the news, but it should pull back closer to the 200 day SMA as near-term enthusiasm is supplanted by waiting for results in this ADD market.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe they are involved in the German expedition that just signed an REE agree with Kzakhstan.
    21 Feb 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Yahoo! Finance reports that oil has gone up 7.3% so far overnight.
    21 Feb 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Going back over last few concentrators and didn't find what I was looking for.

     

    Didn't we see some inside action @ GW....a relatively large purchase and does anyone know the date and price...or have a link?
    21 Feb 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Maybe Stone Communications could research that information for you if it doesn't show up on the internet somewhere.
    tmx.quotemedia.com/art...
    21 Feb 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    All I could find has some items not disclosed. But if you read down near the bottom of these two documents, you see some large dollar values and warrants, options etc.

     

    I use the "html" part of each document.

     

    www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/br...

     

    I hope this helps.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Feb 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The engineering firm which worked on the Lynas concentration plant sounds like an interesting pick for diversifying a stock portfolio.
    www.businessspectator....
    www.forgegroup.com.au/...
    www.asx.com.au/asx/res...
    21 Feb 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    More on the Korean drive to get REE's. According to them you can count on it happening.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    21 Feb 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    In regards to Korea's push for a stable source of REEs, from a logistics standpoint you have to love Lynas' position.
    21 Feb 2011, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The more you learn the more you like...
    21 Feb 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Invest in magnets while they are cheap.

     

    Novelty investment not real investment.

     

    www.amazon.com/Neodymi...
    21 Feb 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Cool!
    21 Feb 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here is news reporting that there is plenty of merger and acquisition activity going on now amongst the gold miners. That seems to echo similar stories I've come across about the mining industry in general in miningweekly.com.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    And here is an example of a gold miner acquiring rare earth property in Quebec. Hinterland Metals is now in the neighborhood of Matamec Explorations.
    www.hinterlandmetals.c...
    21 Feb 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, this sort of thing may become much more common over the next 2 years. It is the hope of many of the junior explorers, most of which are not serious efforts to do any mining past the survey and drill stage.
    21 Feb 2011, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I was hoping to do another snowbirding trip this year and get as far as Phoenix. But I guess this is not the year to do it, oh well.
    But there is some news from the Phoenix show, after all; actually it was in Glendale.
    www.goldstockbull.com/.../
    23 Feb 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX finished down 0.87% last evening, apparently dragging Lynas right along with it. I guess we'll see this sort of thing until the markets get used to the new turmoil and start ignoring it like it does all the other real problems in the world.

     

    As long as the U.S. keeps exporting inflation, I guess markets will keep saying "Problems? What problems?" after each short panic attack and go back to riding the crest of the inflationary wave, with "free" money acting as the surfboard, to drag the markets higher.

     

    So, how long until the ADD markets forget about the riots and start moving up again? ISTM that the average attention-span has been about a week to two weeks or so. Of course, this would have to be *after* the beginning of the last uprising, whatever and whenever that is.

     

    Results from last evening's trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21.......... 2/22
    Last....... 1.910....... 1.865
    $+/-...... -0.020..... -0.045
    Bid......... 1.900....... 1.865
    Offer...... 1.910...... 1.870
    Open..... 1.920....... 1.900
    High....... 1.925....... 1.915
    Low....... 1.865....... 1.865
    Vol 29.729MM 29.124MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 05:39 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    All early indications today show most everything down...except the three amex darlings MCP, REE, and AVL. I have come to greatly resent those as they have been Americanized...in the worst way. I am suprised they do not highlight them on "The View."
    22 Feb 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Major exchange listings have advantages, but drawbacks as well...

     

    Shorting these stocks can wreck their performance and is virtually impossible to do with OTC listings. I'm getting to the point where I prefer OTC stocks just because they BEHAVE like stocks, and are rarely the target of the manipulators that now make up 70% of all trades on the big boards.

     

    The boiler room stocks are not limited to American exchanges by any means - the (very small) krew behind REE operate out of a 420 square foot office in Canada (which also houses 20 or 30 other corporate offices, most of which share space in the same file folder and nowhere else...

     

    Which is one reason I do not recommend the stock.

     

    AVL is another Canadian firm now playing the game on the big exchange, though I think it is far more investible (though currently over-bought) than REE. (I believe its unlikely I will ever look at REE and say the words "oversold").
    22 Feb 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding (GWMGF.PK), (IAALF.PK), (NOURF.PK).

     

    Setup program buys for:

     

    (LYSDY.PK) at $18.20
    (MTCEF.PK) at $.44
    (PMNHF.PK) at $.40
    (ALKEF.PK) at $1.10
    (DNN) at $3.66

     

    I believe the Matamec and Alkane programs may trigger today.
    22 Feb 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Gentlemen, DOW down150 points , MUUUU hahuahauhahuahuahua MUU ahuuhahuahua (Dr Evil Laugh)

     

    The seeds of greed for my beloved LYC is growing. I have wait for irrational moments like these to buy my beloved LYC. All the uninformed mum and pop investor selling out =)

     

    Rare Earth prices going up and stock price going down HEHEHE
    22 Feb 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I agree...I loathe REE - have both made and lost money in it and now stay far far away. You make a great point about the OTC.

     

    We still see, of course, the Pump and Dump and DT action there which has made my learninig curve elongated, but what you say is true about the shorting.

     

    It is still profit-taking in these that is hard for me to "master" as I fear the movement potential (especially upwards). I am going to start trying your strategy - though it requires greater investment...initially at least.
    22 Feb 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Moly just upgraded by JPM with a target of $65.00

     

    What are these crooks up to!!
    22 Feb 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Inevitable. Now that the secondary is out of the way, they have a clear field to pump the price up and unload.

     

    Same thing the did with Lynas, and what Citidips are doing with Lynas currently.
    22 Feb 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    and its up 6% on the move...
    22 Feb 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Great Western *seems* to be at a technical buy. It's touching the bottom Bollinger Band, and Williams R% is showing -97.15. Points Price Oscillator is approaching its nearest low since November 23rd.

     

    Only problem I have is selling momentum, which has been tugging the stock downward. Only minutes ago did I see the first signs of a buying spike.

     

    Hopefully, it won't get down to $.59, but that price is the next key resistance.
    22 Feb 2011, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Fibonacci 61.8% point @ $72 (using low of $0.40 and high of $1.28) and a resistance/support point from 1/12/11 @ $0.716. 50 day SMA $0.72.

     

    Looks good? Yep, but I don't jump too soon here. AD- still rising, AD+ falling, stochastic oversold and still below its average, momo, OBV and MFI strongly negative, accumulation still weakening and volume has bee, generally, rising on this down move.

     

    Supporting trend line broken last Thursday.

     

    I'm waiting to add when I see a turn. Missing a few pennies of potential upside is a small price for better assurance of a rise, IMO.

     

    If it turns up from here, then I'll add some when the indicators and volume support that.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Yep. I'm seeing the same thing. Definitely time to start vulturing, though. Pistol is still in the holster, but my trigger finger is getting itchy.
    22 Feb 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Lot of volume on these in negative territory today. (mainly looking at GW and Lynas). What do you guys make of that? Accumulation mostly I hope...
    22 Feb 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Can someone get me "off the cliff" here with GW....a bit nervous atm.
    22 Feb 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): IMO, we can't let this worry us here. I believe Lynas and GWM are longer-term plays based on what will develop over time as TB and others have detailed.

     

    When Citi and others revise their opinions (shouldn't be too much longer?), the sentiment will turn. Recall that TB mentioned how they manipulate this stuff so they can accumulate, upgrade to buy and sell their stuff into the resulting rise.

     

    Of course, as I try to remind, I'm amateur at this and you need to keep that in mind. But I do think patience is the keyword here.

     

    If it gets near $0.70, I'll be looking for early indications of a turn and will add when I see that.

     

    For (LYSCF), as I've mentioned before, I entered this time for long-term. I would think the 3/7 start-up of Mt. Weld processing might trigger a start of rise, if not before.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So JPM, if Moly gets a price raise from selling more material into a seller's market in 2014, then what does LYC get for selling material into a seller's market in 2011?
    And while you're recognizing the current prices will be sustained into 2014, could you please tell Alistair (JPM Lynas analyst). The poor lad is a bit confused about this whole basket price thing and it seems to be producing a rather silly LYC target price. I think if you guys line your notes up we should find a more sensible $8 target. But before you do that, in keeping with the firm's tradition, you may want to load into LYC this fine morning and then put the hand in the Alistair puppet after hours.
    Empty shirts my friends. Seriously empty shirts.:-)

     

    Dow Jones News: JPMorgan raises Molycorp (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) to overweight from neutral after the company's secondary stock and convertible offerings. Upgrade also based on MCP's announcement that it intends to double its rare-earth production by 2014. With supply for the valuable manufacturing materials constrained by Chinese export quotas, JPMorgan says the stock will benefit from selling more material into a seller's market. Firm boosts price target to $65 from $36.
    22 Feb 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    The reasoning on that MCP upgrade is ludicrous... maybe the gades should start a 'blog of shame' publishing the analyst’s reasoning for their call, and then pointing out why the call is wrong. After a while, patterns should become apparent.
    22 Feb 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They have no shame. And the cop on the beat is in their back pocket.
    22 Feb 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    lots of selling going on, but we may have bottomed for the day. at 2pm and on, will be able to see if this is so. TB and all: have been doing much DD and want say thanks for your amazing knowledge. Following this regularly and will contribute when can. Although you don't need much help! am chomping at the bit for LYSCF and /or GWMGF but as is said so often, patience is a virtue. when this pullback concludes, plan on jumping in!
    22 Feb 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If we re-establish the trend of last year, we may start to see last minute buying by the market maker/manipulators (and it is wise for all of us to remember that over 70% of the trades we see on our screens are really them and their computers gaming the system), scarfing up cheap prices at the close.
    22 Feb 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Buying opp's today are real. Several of my programed trades have triggered, added more GWMGF, LYSDY and IAALF.

     

    Still watching Matamec, DNN and Alkane.

     

    Quest is the closest its been to a buy in a while, I want some in the mid-$5's.
    22 Feb 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » STZYF Stans Energy is heading down, back toward recent weak support at $2.20, but unless it breaks down under $2, the trade does not interest me. This one appears to be settling back into its trading channel, so patience is the key, followed by agility to unload as it peaks. Peaks are getting more subdued, as this one seems to be tiring in general...
    22 Feb 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), LYSDY): PPS seems to be finding support at the Fibonacci 61.8% re-trace point of $1.80/$1.81. Big *apparent* buy imbalance $1.80.

     

    Below 50 day SMA and medium-term trend line right now. Volume is up.

     

    But most trades going off right now @ $1.80, so we can't tell if it will hold. We'd like to see lower volume as price bottoms.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Would love to see your tech/analysis at days end re:GW
    22 Feb 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Short form: still negative. The *only* thing that has changed is stochastic, which is overbought and below its moving average, is showing *early* signs of getting ready to turn up. But this is a very tentative indicator needing confirmation. And volume is still way too high on down days to say it's getting ready to turn.

     

    The only things that might cause a surprise is that we are now on the 50 day SMA and Fibonnaci 61.8% re-trace of $0.73. But without ADX, and related, and at least OBV showing uptrends starting, I don't think the Fib and 50 day SMA can carry much weight here.

     

    I'm still looking, now, for around $0.70 to possibly offer better signs.

     

    BTW, as many times as this has confounded all my *possibles*, why in the world would you want more *apparent* guesses from me on this.

     

    Even I am seriously considering flipping a coin on this one! =>:-O

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Just got a nice bullish indicator. Block of 139,600 and some lesser blocks of 26.7K, 27.7K bought @ $1.80.

     

    If "elephants" get going, the momentum can be impressive. Is this the start of something good?

     

    Maybe we'll find out tomorrow.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Feb 2011, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    My screens are splattered in blood...I have rarely seen so much red.
    22 Feb 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Today is one of those days I am glad that I am more of an investor than a trader.
    22 Feb 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not really IN any trades right now (thank god).

     

    I know I must sound like I know what's going to happen sometimes, gang, but this one caught me off-guard...

     

    For instance, I bailed on several oil stock recently because they had exposure to the Middle East. Then shifted the money to oil stocks with ZERO exposure to north africa/middle east...

     

    One of the stocks I sold was STO. I saw headlines about their heavy exposure in Libya and North Africa, of them attempting to lease airliners to evacuate their people...

     

    And their stock was going up most of the day.

     

    Whereas the substitute oil stocks (with zero exposure) spent the day dropping like a rock, on a day when oil shot up in price.

     

    Huh?

     

    Then I see some strategic stocks with nice gains, and others in the same sector getting hammered (not talking about REEs here).

     

    As for REEs...

     

    Fromt he market reaction today, you would think that every REE on the planet came from a mine in Libya!

     

    I have no answers for this. Some speculation...

     

    We must have had more hot money invested in our sector than even I (who estimated 10%) would believe. Maybe even 20%. And a LOT of them bailed simultaneously today, in full panicked herd mode.

     

    Good thing is that I bought GWM twice, at what I consider cheap prices, and IAALF once (though not particularly cheap, I added some of this just because it did NOT crater like many others in its sector).

     

    In the PM's I saw some stocks soar, and others fall, with little rhyme or reason.

     

    I have rarely been as puzzled over such a powerful market move.
    22 Feb 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I could see where STO would be a stock to shrug off since it hasn't done much for over a year.
    I would guess that the Europeans are now thinking of concentrating on developing their own oil resources while gradually reducing their dependence on North African oil. That would mean developing the Paris Basin shale oil reserves.
    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
    www.resourceinvestor.c...
    www.toreador.net/
    stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
    22 Feb 2011, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I guess the market sold risk and therefore sold beta. Rare earth stocks have a lot of beta so I guess that hurt them today. Earlier in the day I had hoped Lynas would hold up better with production coming sooner. But by the end of the day that did not seem to matter. Moly was saved by the JPM call and Quantum released some data on historical samples and got a bid for it. I'm happy for those folks but neither story honestly impressed me. So I got my rear kicked and will see what happens tomorrow. That's the good thing, there is always tomorrow. Best wishes to all.
    22 Feb 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ASX down under is looking a bit ugly Wednesday morning, but Lynas is actually trading slightly higher from where it ended here.

     

    Northern Minerals is down a good bit, as is Alkane, but Arafura and Greenland Minerals are essentially flat.
    22 Feb 2011, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I added to my Lynas position @ 1.79 today....so I hope the action there (up 6 from the open @ 1.86 down under) means something good over here. I think I am about to consolidate some of my shares into Lynas and away from some others as, under all the current uncertainty, that is the most stable (and hopefully soon to pay off) play on the board right now IMO.
    22 Feb 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Denison (DNN) wants to pay us 24¢ for each of our shares of White Canyon Uranium (WCULF). Doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm among the small shareholders, but...
    22 Feb 2011, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Do you think that the indicated premium percentages to be paid by Denison might not reflect White Canyon's fair potential near term value?
    20% over the trading halt price of February 18
    23% over the average price over the last 30 days
    51% over the average price over the last 90 days
    22 Feb 2011, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    I don't know, but I'll bet whoever bought 759k shares at 24.8¢ is not doing handstands.
    22 Feb 2011, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I see what you are suggesting. It looks like the long time stock holders might not have recovered from the crash.
    www.otcmarkets.com/sto...
    22 Feb 2011, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Most of the point statements made in this articles have no facts behind it whatso ever. for eg

     

    "Major research is underway to find substitutes for rare earth metals. There is every indication that this research will be successful."

     

    This statement is an opinion hence speculation.

     

    "Rising prices of rare earths will make extraction from non-mining sources, such as electronics waste and nuclear waste, more economical."

     

    Trying to recycle rare earth is an extremely costly exercise and can't be done easily like you recycle aluminium

     

    "China knows that its leverage is only short lived as it will not be long before the world again starts producing rare earth elements in places other than China. Significant efforts seem to be underway in USA, Australia, Vietnam, Canada, Greenland, Soth Africa, Brazil, Estonia, and Russia. "

     

    Only Lynas Come online This year/Early 2012. Molycorp is lying about 2012 and cant even release a schedule and the rest is 5 or 6 years away from production.

     

    ETC ETC
    22 Feb 2011, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I agree... The difference in informational content from these articles on REs vs. the informational content in Trips RE concentrator is massive. People that read the RE concentrator know that mine content is just the price of entering the game. What really counts concerns the ability to concentrate the ore, and final processing. Those are the near to mid-term drivers of profit. The company that gets to the market first is going to have a considerable marketing advantage.

     

    In addition, we know there will be dual market pricing structures. One from China where amounts of materials, price of materials and even access to materials are unreliable, and One from outside of China that offers contractual protection over delivered amounts, and prices. I think the consequences of these two pricing structures will mean that companies wanting to make long term high volume deals will favor companies offering contractual protection. This might result in a pricing premium.

     

    MCP's price has no grounding in market realities, its solely dependent on beating the drum... yes you can make money, but the money to be made is solely dependent on how and when the drum is beat as opposed to timing based on business fundamentals. In the first instance, you will always be behind the curve, in the latter ahead of the curve. I prefer to always be ahead of the curve, and Trips RE concentrator helps me do that.
    23 Feb 2011, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Article on how "three small investment firms" bet on Molycorp in today's WSJ.

     

    online.wsj.com/article...

     

    You may have to be a subscriber to read the full article.
    23 Feb 2011, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Forbes had a couple of companion articles about Molycorp's financing after the IPO came out.
    blogs.forbes.com/natha.../
    blogs.forbes.com/natha.../
    23 Feb 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Last evening ASX closed about 1/4%, but Lynas did a bit better, actually closing up ha' penny! Slight volume uptick too. Considering mid-east, oil, ASX down, ... not bad.

     

    I wish I could say our technicals looked positive, but not yet. Volume still rose on yesterday's drop. A potential turning point @ $1.81, both a Fibonaccy point and a prior support, offer the possibility we may start to move back up, as we are just a penny off and a 1 penny overshoot (considering the imprecision of this stuff) is not a biggie. Next support also seems possible at $1.78.

     

    Results from last evening's trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21.......... 2/22.......... 2/23
    Last....... 1.910....... 1.865....... 1.870
    $+/-...... -0.020..... -0.045....... 0.005
    Bid......... 1.900....... 1.865....... 1.865
    Offer...... 1.910...... 1.870....... 1.885
    Open..... 1.920....... 1.900....... 1.800
    High....... 1.925....... 1.915....... 1.905
    Low....... 1.865....... 1.865....... 1.800
    Vol 29.729MM 29.124MM 33.011MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas had to overcome quite a deep hole when they opened on the ASX at $1.80. To close at $1.87, up $.005, was impressive, given the background market conditions. This reflects the general maturity of the ASX investor population when it comes to mining stocks... As a group they just looked at the price, said "That's cheap", and started buying millions of shares.

     

    This differentiates between their viewpoint and that of the folks that sold at a loss and scampered for the down elevator yesterday. I wish I could say we won't seem the Hot Money short-attention-span types back on our doorstep, but as soon as the next MSM pundit trumpets "REEs are BACK", they will be too, and we should just accept the peaks and valleys they create, and go with it.
    23 Feb 2011, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    And last night on Fast Money on CNBC, one of the participants gave a shout out to Lynas, saying he still loves that stock.

     

    Wouldn't it be strange if in this ADD market, Fast Money was the "market mover" now?

     

    I shuuuuddddder to think of it.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "ADRIIIIIIAAAAAAAAAAN!"

     

    [ROCKY paleo, sorry, its THAT kind of morning.]
    23 Feb 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Ya, BK called it "Linnnus" (with a short i instead of a long i like the peanuts character's name). It tells you he is recommending it without ever listening to a conference call, company presentation or NC interview. I like Beeks but he should know the name. Oh well.
    23 Feb 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Great Western Minerals Group to Launch Steenkampskraal Exploration Program

     

    "... committed to an exploration program at the Company's Steenkampskraal site in South Africa in conjunction with the ongoing feasibility work being carried out by SRK Consulting.

     

    GWMG will invest a minimum of $1.5 Million (Cdn.) in an exploration program, on site and regionally, that is scheduled to commence immediately upon receipt of the National Nuclear Regulator ("NNR") approval for the on-site work program at Steenkampskraal related to the Bankable Feasibility Study currently being prepared by SRK Consulting. The NNR approval is expected within the first quarter of 2011".

     

    More here.

     

    www.marketwire.com/pre...

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More can kicking. Its what junior explorers do...

     

    Until someone with deep pockets makes them an offer they can't refuse.

     

    Now that the price has gone down 50%, I'm looking at them as vulnerable to a buyout, again.

     

    In a perfect world, this news release would have announced renovation of the mine and processing plant, based upon the positive results of the bankability study and the NNR permiting from 2010, with the plan to update the site sample program a minor footnote.

     

    Oh well. Its the news they have to throw into the teeth of the downdraft, and it might help stabilize things...
    23 Feb 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    GW just announced upcoming commencement of Steenkamp mine...not sure how impactful that sort of news will prove to be...likely little
    23 Feb 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Early morning got to $0.68, bounced right back up to $0.72. Trying to add @ $0.71 now.

     

    It *is* too early, based on technicals, but this should at *least* make a few days trade feasible. Volume is good, early, so this *might* be the turn since it was at those potential support points anyway - Fib 61.8%, prior support $0.716. If I'd found the news earlier, I coulda, woulda, shoulda got it @ $0.68.

     

    Pardon while I go cry over $0.03 in possible missed upside! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I DID have a program buy in at $.68, and it did NOT trigger ($.68xx was close)...

     

    I'm leaving it in place, but I think I just screwed up that opp...

     

    I already added more at $.90, $.88 and $.78...

     

    I have a LOT of GWM...

     

    I believe I will just let this one ride, and see what tomorrow brings...

     

    But I COULD have just done $.69...

     

    Oh well...
    23 Feb 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Never chase your prey, ambush it...
    Bob's rule...
    23 Feb 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » finance.yahoo.com/bank...=

     

    Part of the story is in the "other commodities". As this article shows quite clearly, we are seeing the early signs of a breakdown in base metals and ag commodites. Precious metals operate in their own asset class nowadays, even if one discounts rampant manipulation...

     

    Which leaves strategic materials like uranium, rare earths, tungsten, titanium, etc.

     

    As we add this market fundamental picture to the geopolitical insanity, it introduces the prospect for our babies to get tossed out with both factor's bathwater.

     

    Time to be cautious...
    23 Feb 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    No, not my babies!!
    23 Feb 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Might anyone be interested in indium as part of the mix?
    www.indium.com/product...
    www.teck.com/Generic.a...
    www.argentexmining.com...
    23 Feb 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Background on the potential WTO process to compel China to lift export restrictions on REEs (I agree with the author's idea that any results might be seen no earlier than 2012, probably late 2012 imo).

     

    Frankly, even IF this plays out to the favor of the REE consumers, China by then will have concentrated their entire REE industry under a Cartel composed of a few very large companies. Prices will be set by that cartel (which is just a front for the ruling junta in the government, of course)...

     

    Unable to directly control shipments, they will certainly be able to establish internal controls siphoning materials for domestic consumption while pricing the "outside" shipments at whatever the market will bear (vs right now, where they actively subsidize domestic prices, and are slowly pushing up export prices).

     

    Any incentive China might have to quickly remediate environmental problems - or to make permitting of the ex-outlaw mines which comprise the bulk of their REE sector easier - will disappear. It will be hard for countries like the US who routinely make commodity permitting a domestic political football requiring decades of agony to complain when China does the same.
    23 Feb 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Alkane just announced they have joined OTCQX
    23 Feb 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Medallion (MLLOF.PK) did the same thing about 2 weeks back. DIdn't seem to help their share price that I could tell...

     

    Its a potential good thing, IF it appeals to the core investors holding the stock. I think it might help the more adventurous institutional investors who sometimes buy penny stocks (this is an unusual minority, of course), since the QX process theoretically means the company has to meet stricter standards (something like some of the standards imposed by listing on a major exchange).

     

    Its like minor league baseball, tuning up for the majors...

     

    But the odds are still low that any one minor leaguer will make it to the bigs.
    23 Feb 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Here is a nice Business Wire from the US Magnetic Materials Association. Notice they mention Lynas, but not Molycorp MCP. I guess when you are in the business, and your focus is getting material for magnetics, Lynas is the name.

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...
    23 Feb 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » These guys hate MCP's insides for cutting them out of their "mine to magnet" plan. Signing their arch enemy, Hitachi, to the project put salt in the wound.
    23 Feb 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The drilling situation for IBC Advanced Alloys about its beryllium potential is becoming clearer. They will have an soil overburden to work through get to the beryllium.
    www.marketwire.com/pre...
    23 Feb 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I doubled down on IBC Tuesday, and added more yesterday...

     

    Now I have a full core position plus some trading stock, though I don't have a particular plan for trading just yet.

     

    I may sell off the trading stock if it gets a nice profit, so that I can lower the averge cost of the shares.
    23 Feb 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    Both JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have upgraded MCP.
    MS give it an overweight rating and JPM goes for an out right buy.

     

    www.fool.com/investing...
    23 Feb 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    The author of the Motley Fool article displays an amazing lack of grasp of the facts. First, he assumes that the recent WTO decesion directly affects rare earths, which as we well know it doesn't. Then he apparently assumes China has an unlimited supply and if the RE restrictions have to be lifted there will suddenly be an overwhelming supply being exported from China. If anyone is a Motley Fool member I urge you to file a comment and try to educate him. He probably reaches a lot more readers than we do.
    23 Feb 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Meanwhile, their fellow henchbankster has nailed Lynas with a bizarre "Sell" rating just recently...

     

    All coincidence, I am sure...
    23 Feb 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    No, no, no, no....Let the fools believe that. The price of our charished stocks will come down and we can buy more, LOTS more. Once they realize there are not great hoards of the stuff just sitting around in china we will be sitting...fat, dumb and happy while all the fools rush back into the stocks trying to figure out what happened to the great hoards of REE's. Who stole the REE's they will be wondering.

     

    But then....that would be rather selfish of me. (sheepishly said walking away)
    23 Feb 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): PPS is bumping off multiple resistances here.

     

    20, 50 day SMA right near the top for the day and the intermediate trend line right there also.

     

    Don't be surprised if it takes a few attempts to get through it.

     

    *But*, if there are knowledgeable investors pushing the price here, rather than technical or momentum traders, it *might* push on through as those investors will know that March 7 might be an "inflection point" day if Mt. Weld meets its schedule.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Feb 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp responded to my questions. In all fairness that was prompt and I appreciate them taking the time. Here is the exchange:

     

    My Q to Moly:When will the next earnings call occur? Is the project on budget? Is
    any more detail available on how Molycorp Minerals will be the low cost producer
    in this field. Any additional patents, diagrams, or cost breakdowns forth coming
    on the subject?

     

    Moly response: We believe the earnings call will take place in the second or third week of
    March, where we hope to address your other questions.
    The Form 4s you are seeing are part of the secondary offering from certain
    stockholders that was announced on January 24, 2011. We are not selling any
    shares of our common stock in this offering, nor will we receive any proceeds
    from the sale of common stock by the selling stockholders.

     

    phx.corporate-ir.net/p...

     

    Regards,
    Garrett Edson
    23 Feb 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Accurate response, and good to know that they responded promptly.

     

    March for the next information is something to keep on the radar screen.
    23 Feb 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The new Concentrator is up, everyone please go to the new REE/Strat. Concentrator....

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Thanks!
    23 Feb 2011, 06:11 PM Reply Like
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