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tripleblack
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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Why in the sam hell did Lynas get hit with a sell? LAMP behind schedule? Overvalued at $1.80? What a bunch of annoying bullshit. Honestly, what will the MSM do when Lynas is producing and selling later this year? What on earth kind of rationalized horse dung will be used at that point?
    23 Feb 2011, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This happened a few weeks back (tired now, can't dredge up the date, might have been back in January). We discussed it here at the time.

     

    But along with what we see with MCP, particularly the timing, its the way these bozos work.
    23 Feb 2011, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    So, is this an "us against them", MCP vs. Lynas, US vs. ASX type of thing?
    23 Feb 2011, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Only to the extent that the big guys manipulate everyone, and play one group of investors (whatever sets them apart, which of course can include nationality or just which exchange they use) against another.

     

    The tactics are the same, really, just the details are a bit different, to fit the conditions. Lynas is looking up, with dramatic news near at hand...

     

    So they told their customers to sell Lynas...

     

    To them, as the price of the shares dropped (as a result of their "analysis")...

     

    Then they wait a while, let events unfold to make the stock worth more, reverse their rating, give Lynas an "upgrade", and if they are ready, sell, or, more likely (given that they can work the markets again in September when LAMP comes on line) just move Lynas to a "Hold" (because of Mount Weld coming up), then finally work it to a "Buy" in September, sell their shares (which they have controlled the price of all down the line) back to their customers...

     

    Or the reverse, as we see with MCP...

     

    Look at a situation fraught with risk and bad things, look at all the shares they are holding but which maybe they really don't WANT to be holding, and bump up the ratings, sell the shares to their customers...

     

    And lest we forget, options trading like made, including naked shorts, all the long while...

     

    Anytime you see something like a Lynas hammered from out of nowhere by a bankster, never doubt they have an agenda.
    23 Feb 2011, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Interesting to see Lynas drop overnight and then rebound ubruptly in OZ...interesting to see where we start tomorrow.
    I will be selling other interests and moving more into Lynas as we near potential tipping points. If you look back at price both in Oz and here, this stock has been amazingly stable relative to peers. I have always viewed this as a very positive sign.
    It seems that most of our other common interests/holdings will only have larger payoffs down the line and most people play them on short-term runs, knowing there will be no real production anytime soon. Although GW has always confused me a bit. Don't they possess a unique ability to generate revenue in the short-term from other interests?
    To further clarify my previous point...it seems that other than short-term bumps from news, all players except those manipulated in the US (REE Avl MCP) pretty much just ride up and down within a small holding pattern at this point(see alkane, arufaru, GW even, Quest ...until they go amex) and will likely continue to do so until they make a major turn. Would you guys agree with this? If true, my plan to ride a few of these short-term, sell out, move money into those paying off sooner (Lynas) and then use some of the profits to put back into the other juniors before their major moves would be prudent. If my original assertion isn't rue, then I will miss major moves with others. I know with this plan any merger or acquisition would be a risk losing a junior investment. What do you guys think??
    23 Feb 2011, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GWM is in a unique market position - for the time being, they alone among the ex-China companies have a capacity to do certain things with REO's and REE metals. That is the source of their current income, and future promise, but also a problem...

     

    Since like everyone else, they and their customers don't have a reliable SOURCE for REO's right now.

     

    When Lynas cranks up Mount Weld the ex-China REE sector will have its first sizeable and reliable source for REOs, though most of their initial production will be going to large customers that have already entered into a contractural agreement (not much leftover for the open market).

     

    So whereas folks like MCP, Lynas and the others lack the abilities GWM owns on the tail end of the REE production line, until they bring their operations up to speed GWM's AMP business is constrained by market shortages in REE's.

     

    GWM IS generating income right now, but at a low level due to the lack of raw materials.

     

    Once again, Rare Element Resources (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is not really a problem due to the American markets, since its a Canadian firm successfully executing a pump and dump operation from a 420 sqauare foot office (shared with about 20 similar corporations and staffed by the same small group of Canadians). So the primary victims for REE are the American markets. Its wild volatility is caused by the pump and dump efforts, and the effect is damage to investors on the American markets.

     

    AVL is pretty much the same story, a small Canadian company pumping hard to push up their share price, though they appear to be more of an actual company working with their own projects rather than Rare Element Resources with questionable claims which were studied and rejected by larger mining corporations in the past.

     

    MCP is indeed oversold, but still is more of a "real" company than the huge bulk of junior explorers that are projects looking for a buyer (I include AVL in this comment - REE too, LOL, though its very unlikely that the same companies that rejected their projects in the past will find them attractive now). They posses a fully built out mine, a functional (but obsolete and too-small) processing plant for seperating and concentrating REO's, and much of the paperwork structure to be a major force in the world's REE sector...

     

    In 2 or 3 years. Maybe. Perhaps even probably.

     

    MCP's problems with their stock structure is very similar to that of any tiny junior going through an IPO - except in this case, under a gigantic geopolitical microscope.

     

    My personal vision of the future for MCP is that they will one day BE a $75 stock, but that they are NOT a $50 stock today.

     

    Picking winners from among the legions of junior explorers may be very challenging. I hold small investments in about 10 of them, and it may be that as time goes on I will drop the bulk of them and retain only a few. Trading in and out of volatility IS an option, but its also fraught with risk. As we have seen this past week, even the secluded landscape of the baby REE sector will not be excluded from massive market upheaval.

     

    As for Lynas proving more resilient than many of the other players, I agree, it has, and it SHOULD be, given its relative large market cap (similar to that of MCP), and its advanced position on the vertically integrated production plan.

     

    I suspect NONE of us will manage to pick all winners or, perhaps more inevitably, ALL the winners.
    24 Feb 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB and bukdow,
    Are you guys talking about the Citi "Sell" rating on Lynas back on Jan 26, 2011?
    Here is the link:
    ir.citi.com/k75y09saLO...
    23 Feb 2011, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    I was under the impression, perhaps incorrectly, that there was another "sell" rating issued on Lynas more recently than Citi's.
    24 Feb 2011, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Note the coincident timing for Citi's abrupt notice of Lynas' existance the day AFTER MCP's lockbox event. Citi INITIATED coverage of Lynas that day, along with a "Sell" notice.

     

    Sometimes I talk in generalities lacking specifics, and this can create misunderstandings like this. My fault. I'll probably do this again...
    24 Feb 2011, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    The more they poo poo it the more you get to buy cheap, quit complaining. We all know the end result. Something about a gift horse comes to mind.

     

    Bastards want to play games with the uniniformed sheeple let them, we know better.

     

    No I do not know who to call and ensure the sheeple get better informed so my moral compass is doing just fine on this one.
    Something about DD and all that jaz.
    23 Feb 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. But sometimes the huge quilt of boisterous ignorance that seems to lay heavily on many in this country gets on my nerves. Shame on me.
    24 Feb 2011, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Once long ago, when I was young, dedicated, boisterous and full of piss and vinegar, a supervisor told me I couldn't apply my standards to others.

     

    I had to think about it a lot, but eventually swallowed that pill.

     

    It made life easier as I expected less of others and (what I perceived as) their problems no longer became my problems.

     

    Time has, to me, proven the wisdom of that bitter pill.

     

    The exception is if their action, due to lack of "best effort", affects my ability to perform to my own standards.

     

    Then I feel completely justified in taking exception, in a most vociferous manner too.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2011, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (855) | Send Message
     
    HT, those are some words of wisdom right there.
    24 Feb 2011, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One reason this blog exists is that I share all these opinions and feelings. I have lost close friends over investment advice. I tried my damnedest to get some friends to abandon ship prior to the dot.com bust, or to at least diversify more...

     

    Now I lay it all out here, and where the entire planet can seek it out and use it - or not - their option.

     

    And I no longer enter into conversation with friends and family on investment topics. Oh, I get some odd looks and comments when one of them calls, and asks "What are you doing?" and I tell them "Working". The idea that someone would do what we do in a serious manner doesn't penetrate their prejudices.
    24 Feb 2011, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    A large number of people here in California going wild about Bay Area tech stocks back in the dot.com boom lost out in a big way. The state is still having a hangover from that.
    24 Feb 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • RMF - Rethinking Modern Fin...
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    Some of us who read more than write here truly appreciate your information sharing here.
    25 Feb 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Kudos to you for doing what you believe in TB! What a great phrase "...doesn't penetrate their prejudices"
    26 Feb 2011, 03:16 AM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Ditto~
    26 Feb 2011, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I guess if your buying on margin then you might have something to complain about because you might have to sell....at a loss. Trust me I know, had to do that with silver last November as the price was soaring and I was pyramiding up and suddenly the CME change the rules by changing margin requirements. Ouchy, Quickly cut margin in half but still got a trip to the woodshed.

     

    I would not say shame on you for worrying about the sheeple. I do to that is why I have to check my moral compass from time to time but I worry about our followers the most. That is why I like this group so well there is no hidden agenda in this crowd. We just tell it like it is. The buys, the sells, the ideas its all laid out on the table. We aren't fooling anyone.
    24 Feb 2011, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. All documented, date and time stamped.
    24 Feb 2011, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): l, the world turmoil appears to be still taking its toll on the markets. S&P ASX last evening close down another 0.70% and Lynas closed down 1.6%.

     

    With the U.S. PPS bumping up against both the 20 & 50 day SMAs at $1.89 and the trend line (which should act as resistance now until it is penetrated) also at $1.89 yesterday & today, I expect we'll see a small move down again before we can expect another run to try and break through.

     

    Shouldn't be too much downside right now if the low of Tuesday is any indication. At $1.79, that is just below what should be support at the Fibonacci 61.8% and the low of 1/7 at $1.81 and high of $1.78 on 10/19/10. All told, we should expect reasonable support between $1.78 and $1.81. So I won't be looking for anything lower than that range near-term.

     

    If we just follow the Aussie lead of down 1.6%, we would expect a low today of ~$1.84. But our typical daily range is a little broader than that (we're more volatile?), so we should probably expect $1.82 or so.

     

    Results from last evening's trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21.......... 2/22.......... 2/23........ 2/24
    Last....... 1.910....... 1.865....... 1.870...... 1.840
    $+/-...... -0.020..... -0.045....... 0.005.... -0.030
    Bid......... 1.900....... 1.865....... 1.865...... 1.835
    Offer...... 1.910...... 1.870....... 1.885....... 1.845
    Open..... 1.920....... 1.900....... 1.800...... 1.835
    High....... 1.925....... 1.915....... 1.905....... 1.875
    Low....... 1.865....... 1.865....... 1.800....... 1.820
    Vol 29.729MM 29.124MM 33.011MM 29.321MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2011, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    Today's Financial Times has an article about rare earths. No RE companies are mentioned. The article is entitled "Companies look to cut use of rare earths." It says that companies like GM and GE are investing in alternative technologies. The Chevy Volt uses 3.2kg of RE magnets. GM says that if REs went away fuel economy and range of hybrids would drop by 2-4%. A 2012 Buick Lacrosse hybrid available w/o RE magnets. However, manufacturers are uncertain about what technologies to pursue, lack of specialist scientists, limited research funding, etc.

     

    Don't know if you can read the full article, but it's at
    www.ft.com/cms/s/0/793...
    24 Feb 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Most of the REE use in a new hybrid is in the batteries. Moreso in an EV.

     

    2-4% lower gas mileage is not a minor consideration. Mileage claims SELL these cars. Often they compete fiercely over fractional gains. Shave 1 mpg from their results, and they will suffer at the hands of the market.
    24 Feb 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    WWIII forming in the mideast will increase demand rapidly as military build up gets going. Speculation on my part and no one is going to let that cat out of the bag so we will never really know. Just have to watch prices of the product.
    24 Feb 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If that's true, GWM's shares should be spiking upward...

     

    And I see they are.

     

    When (not if) the supplies start trickling into the general market from sources outside the Chinese Cartel, we will see the prices quickly bid up in the secondary market as the planet's governments and large industrialists start to create stockpiles. This alone could monopolize all REE production we are likely to see for the next 4 years.
    24 Feb 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Because of this?

     

    Great Western Minerals Group in Advanced Discussions on Rare Earth Separation Plant

     

    "holding advanced discussions with several companies with the intent of engaging a partner in the construction of a Rare Earths separation plant in South Africa.

     

    The separation plant, which would process the mixed rare earth chloride, that is planned to be produced at the Steenkampskraal site, into separated Rare Earth oxides, is a core component of GWMG's plans to be a fully integrated Rare Earths producer.

     

    GWMG is evaluating several alternatives. Under each alternative, the Company would also be acquiring separation expertise.

     

    One alternative is an off-take agreement under which the partner would have access to Rare Earths oxides that are in excess of those required for GWMG's wholly owned alloy processing facilities, Less Common Metals in Birkenhead, U.K. and Great Western Technologies Inc. in Troy, Michigan, U.S.

     

    A second alternative, which is not exclusive of the first, is the potential for equity investment in the separation plant by a project partner.

     

    The third alternative being considered by GWMG is the use of debt instruments for financing the separation plant".

     

    More here.

     

    www.marketwire.com/pre...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I think the hoarding will be good for us 2 ways. Safer country ( at least from outside militarys) and better stock prices.

     

    Now if they use those weapons on us here we had better get some youtube clips saved up of BO, hillary and all the others talking about not using force against the people......nah they wont care if it gets to that. I need more coffee to wake up.
    24 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    Another interesting point in the FT article is that, while the prices of raw materials have tripled, GM saves by buying finished magnets at only a 50% increase.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This fact is simple cost accounting. Three times higher prices for the REE content gets watered down (in this example) by a ratio of 6:1.

     

    Comparing the effect on the entire manufacturing cost of the vehicle probably generates a much higher ratio, say 600:1.

     

    Also, given that the entire hybrid segment is looking at the SAME situation...

     

    No big deal.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    yes, read it too, hidden in the 2nd sec of the actual FT paper. Almost seems the article was very muted down by the editors, so as not to create what they would later be criticized as hyping. But really the reporter was indirectly highlighting the urgency of the matter it seemed to me.
    26 Feb 2011, 03:32 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So, IAALF has a little bit of a problem extracting/getting to the beryllium if I am understanding correctly?
    24 Feb 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nothing unusual. This sort of situation is the norm in these sorts of mining projects.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    GW news: In advanced discussion regarding separation facilities

     

    I'm glad someone is working for this stock this week
    24 Feb 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Try this link for the GW story:

     

    www.sys-con.com/node/1...

     

    Also, I'm sure you guys have seen the Pele press release this morning (or at least seen the pop in your portfolio)
    24 Feb 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, Rain.

     

    GWM keeps trying to move forward, but I would have been more impressed with an announcement that they had FOUND a JV partner ready to build the processing plant.

     

    All the options JE mentioned are doable, imo, even the one where they setup their own financing (go into debt) - their Troy facilities give them a toe in the Federal financing and loan guarantee program which MIGHT be coming out of Congress Q2 or Q3 (I've given up hope of it happening Q1).
    24 Feb 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Seems they need to go talk to the Koreans about financing the processing plant for some contracts on REE's. The Koreans are scared, nows the best time to approach them.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stans Energy has been negotiating with the SK's for a while now...

     

    I agree, DG, there might be a real opp. there for GWM. Good call.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pele Mountain (PMNHF.PK) is surging, for those with trading stock, good time to take profits...
    24 Feb 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Broke above resistance of falling trading channel today, but low volume. Stochastic flipped above its average and is out of oversold now. Other indicators haven't had time to respond yet.

     

    If this holds, it may be starting another run up. Waiting for confirmation might be good - give up a few pennies upside for much reduced risk.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove

     

    P.S. That line is $0.77 today and would not theoretically act as support, but it is falling.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I could not stand it. I bought 2500 more shares. Dont know price yet since I have to wait confirmation from broker since its in my 401K.
    24 Feb 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION on (GWMGF): DRAT!. I said

     

    "would not theoretically act as support"

     

    and meant to say

     

    "would theoretically act as support".

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2011, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.marketwire.com/pre...

     

    IBC (IAALF.PK) is going to drill for more data on their claims.

     

    This junior miner is one that I have added to my core group, with the added bonus in this case that they own the rights to some VERY interesting research regarding berylium/uranium nuclear fuel...

     

    It is thus a 5 way play: Junior miner with good prospects and claims - Operating Beryllium business - Owner of potentially important and valuable technology - Energy play - Strategic materials play which could qualify for upcoming government subsidies and support.

     

    On the rare occasion when I play poker, this is the sort of hand (featuring loads of ways for me to win) that I love to bet upon.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    BE Resources' Warm Springs Mine is located in the same county as New Mexico Tech, the main university for geology, engineering and technology. That is another plus; mining has strong institutional support in New Mexico.
    www.nmt.edu/search-res...
    24 Feb 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    HT: When a stock like Lynas trades on two exchanges in different time zones where overnight adjustments are made in the markets (amex/US) which follows the other and a block of prcing is "skipped" in effect, is this one way a gap is created? So, LYSCF closed at 1.82 and opened the next morning here at 1.87 due to asx movement the night before, for instance...
    24 Feb 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    As far as I know, no adjustments are made. Somebody more knowledgeable might know otherwise.

     

    But traders can trade on multiple exchanges and *can* arbitrage prices, impacted by currency moves of course, to make quick profits. This certainly can be responsible for creating a gap.

     

    But a gap is nothing more than a trading range in which the close of one period is not filled by trading in the subsequent period. This possibility appears on a gap open. Subsequent trading may fill the gap or it may not. It also occurs on stocks traded on only one echange as normal trading activity.

     

    HardToLove.
    24 Feb 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    As I understand it, our opening price is adjusted to match what it has closed at in Oz -- adjusted for any currency translation. Check it out tomorrow. Of course the stock is traded in Frankfurt during some of the same time it's traded in the US. I don't know if our price gets adjusted after Frankfurt closes.
    24 Feb 2011, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    See my daily below. If it's hard to pick out, here's a link directly to the comment.

     

    seekingalpha.com/autho...

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    Putting 25K spread across KOG, BEXP and GEOI bakkin oil companys in 401K and waiting prices on that too. I think even if they go back down these are long term plays for me. Not trades. Will see what happens and trade off these core positions later if they keep going up over the next year or two.
    24 Feb 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    The Bakken is a great place for "easy to get to, relatively untapped" oil. The Montney and the Cardium are other great places for "easy to get to, relatively untapped" oil.
    rigzone.com/google.asp...
    rigzone.com/google.asp...
    24 Feb 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    Cramer spent a lot of time on Bakken oil tonight. Your BEXP was one of the ones he mentioned. He said he just learned about all this oil (24B barrels) last week.
    25 Feb 2011, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, but a week in Cramer time is equivalent to years of study by lesser beings...

     

    Its like dog years, except he drools slightly less.

     

    NOBODY can admit fatal fallacies in themselves while simultaneously presenting their credentials as a pundit like Cramer. LOL. It goes beyond ego... Its...

     

    Cramer.
    25 Feb 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    Hey, Hey! Cut the guy some slack, TB, We've only had a US Geological Survey outlining the Bakken since 1951. It takes time for these things to get out there... TFIC (Tongue Firmly In Cheek)
    25 Feb 2011, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it was the 24 billion barrels that was the revelation for Cramer.

     

    The USGS 2008 news release that Oasis (OAS) has on its website says: "3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate"

     

    I wouldn't have been paying attention if it hadn't been for DG's comment. Thanks!

     

    BTW, for a neophyte like me, this USGS website seems to be really helpful. www.usgs.gov/faq/index...

     

    People worry about "foreign oil," but as I understand it, if it comes from Alaska, Texas Venezuela or Saudi Arabia the price is the same for the same grades. Maybe supply is more reliable if US. Someone pointed out on CNBC a year or two ago that Norway uses its own oil, but it costs the same as if it came from elsewhere.
    26 Feb 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Interesting. Hyundai is emulating Toyota, and has even amended its articles of incorporation to allow it to create an in-house entity tasked with pursuing rare earth rsources.

     

    Further down the page, note the bit about Exxon's new oil production numbers showing 100bbls pumped but only 95bbls of new reserves found (the old peak oil chesnut).

     

    Its an accurate statement of course, though the key phrase when they list their argument is that Exxon is unable to find replacements for what they are using from their reserves for "political reasons".

     

    87% of the United States (which includes our share of the off-shore assets on the Continental Shelf) are off-limits for energy exploration. Western Europe is even more restricted. The fact that the US still meets about 80% of our energy needs from our own resources (only 55-60% of oil needs, though) is astounding when one considers just how much of our territory is in a perpetual resource lockbox
    24 Feb 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • nlemberg
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    The 50% retrace at .70cents in GWMgf looks like will hold ?
    Is the MLLOF still works or CEO leaving killed it ?

     

    Thanks
    24 Feb 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    CEO just moved up to chairman. I think what is killing stock is their recently released mediocre drilling results. they are "re evauating" their approach. While the risk for other juniors is whether they can develop theiir finds in time, MLLOF is still trying to find something.
    24 Feb 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ellwodo, nlemberg, I agree as regards Medallion. Joining the QX plan for OTC stocks is a good recent step they made. The more they distance themselves from methods such as those used by REE, the more I view them as a serious junior explorer - but the more crucial their sampling efforts and claim development becomes.

     

    HTL has been charting GWM for a while now, and he likes their chances for a bounce right now from what he has posted upstream in this insta. My read on the situation is that they are showing strong volatility right now, and may take a while to settle back down, though my gut tells me they will settle nearer $.80 than $.70.
    24 Feb 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): "though my gut tells me they will settle nearer $.80 than $.70"

     

    On the technical side, still up in the air. The move above resistance was significant, but that same line, acting as support potentially is steeply falling.

     

    We hit, penetrated and came back above the Fibonacci 61.8% $0.70-$0.72 and potential support of $0.838 Fri., Tue. and Wed. and then had a natural spike back up that put us on top of that line.

     

    Even if it acts as support now, price can ride it down back to the $0.70-$0.72 area.

     

    Today's volume is extremely low, indicating hesitancy about direction.

     

    With stochastic having given an early tentative indication of a move up and the 50 day SMA now at $0.7356 and rising, I don't think we'll go right back to $0.72 or lower. There ought to be some consolidation pattern forming. But I expect only a few days this time as the ADX, and related, are pinching and may cross, indicating more trades going at the ask and showing bullish inclination.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Feb 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • nlemberg
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to have 5 juniors in REE .
    What would you suggest short 3-6 months / long 1-2 year term
    I have currently
    LYSCF / GWMGF /QSURD

     

    Thank you to this great board /reading often
    24 Feb 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Take a look at Matamec (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). It has a very low market capitalization and seems to be making very good progress as it releases drilling results. It has a high concentration of heavy REEs. It seems to me to be a good candidate for acquisition. (Disclosure: I have concentrated my REE holdings into QSURD and MTCEF.)
    24 Feb 2011, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like your choices. Since you are obviously following Lynas, I would suggest you look into (NOURF.PK) Northern Minerals (Lynas owns just under 10% of this Australian company themselves).

     

    I believe (UURAF.PK) is a Canadian junior that has an American political advantage via their Bokan, Alaska claim and its intense scrutiny by Alaska's US Senator.

     

    I would also suggest you look at (MTCEF.PK) and (ALKEF.PK), two penny stocks with promise which are frequently discussed on this blog.
    24 Feb 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    Matamec is an excellent suggestion. I agree wholeheartedly with ellwodo that they are in a sweet spot.
    You might consider Matamec's neighbor, Fieldex Explorations, FXPIF.pk, as well. They share Matamec's interest in the mineral rich Kipawa region of southwestern Quebec. The area is located in a geologically complex frontier area where the Grenville Geological Province meets the Canadian Shield. The area is close to highways and railroads with easy access to Ottawa, Toronto, Detroit and Buffalo. Also, Quebec is noted for being one of the top rated mining jurisdictions.
    fieldexexploration.com...
    www.matamec.com/
    www.mrn.gouv.qc.ca/eng...
    rruff.geo.arizona.edu/...
    www.marketwire.com/pre...
    24 Feb 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    I'm currently studying the Grenville Province as a logical place for picking junior resource stocks as well as some of the majors to diversify the strategic metals portfolio. The region is a treasure trove of mineral wealth suitable for finding scarce minerals and metals.
    Argex Mining, ARGEF.pk, is one possibility I happen to be looking at the moment.
    www.mrnf.gouv.qc.ca/en...
    instruct.uwo.ca/earth-...
    www.argex.ca/
    25 Feb 2011, 02:46 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    TB, UURAF also has uranium and we know that is in huge demand and going up. Another big plus for this stock. They are 2 bagging it.

     

    Add in the politics and maybe they are three bagging it.

     

    When I got stopped out of AVL it all went here.
    25 Feb 2011, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, (UURAF.PK) is my consensus pick for a stock with political advantages for government support (other than MCP, which casts a very long shadow).
    25 Feb 2011, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ASX is being kind to us at the moment. LYC, NTU, ARU, ALK and GGG are all up, with Lynas up .82%. Good numbers given the circumstances.
    24 Feb 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • nlemberg
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for all advice . I am loading up on these stocks
    this and next week .
    I follow stock market cycles and one of the most reliable one is 13-14 week cycle ( earnings season).
    (not 100% certainty when the revolution goes on)
    It's made the top right on time -(14 weeks top last week )
    Nasdaq & Russel possibly already made 14 weeks bottoms ,
    Dow & SPX maybe bottoming next 2 weeks -the latest 03/11)
    at SPX 1287 ( estimated 2011 EPS 95.35 X 13.5 PE=1287.22)
    Looks like final inflation run blow off will be in June ( 14 week & 30 week cycle tops)-QE2 also ends in June
    24 Feb 2011, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    The Substitution/ Recycling Issue Rare Earths, Cobalt and Tungsten:

     

    ----------------
    (Feb25, 2011) Japan endeavors to cut rare earth utilization by a third From: REUTERS by Risa Maeda and Osamu Tsukimori
    tinyurl.com/4w9xf7y

     

    Japanese firms consume about 30,000 tonnes a year of rare earth minerals to produce mobile phones, electric car motors, high-tech electronics parts and batteries.

     

    [The Reliability of supply at contractual negotiated prices Issue]
    A spat over disputed islands in the East China Sea led to a de-facto suspension by Beijing on exports of rare earths for some months last year, sending Japan and other nations scrambling to find alternatives. China also announced increased export taxes on rare earths.

     

    [Consequences]
    Japan aims to cut rare earth consumption by a third within a few years and reduce its reliance on China, by providing subsidies for recycling and investing in new ways to limit their use.

     

    Some 160 projects by companies such as Intermetallics Co, Hitachi Metals Ltd, Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co and Asahi Glass Co will invest a combined 110 billion yen ($1.34 billion) by March 2012, using government subsidies of 33.1 billion yen as seed money, Japan's trade ministry said on Friday. That number is set to grow as the government solicits more applications with the offer of another 8.9 billion yen in subsidies. [$1=81.89 Yen]

     

    "We've been supporting research and development in areas like reducing the amount of rare earth in abrasives by allocating money from our annual budget as well," Tsutomu Morisaki, director at the ministry's nonferrous metals division, said at a news conference. In addition to rare earths like cerium for abrasives and dysprosium for magnets, Japan is also looking to cut down on its use of cobalt and tungsten. These subsidies come on top of another 58 billion yen of subsidies announced in October to develop mines abroad and to research alternative materials. [contracts with Lynas (LYSDY) and (MCP).]

     

    Hikaru Hiranuma, a researcher at private think tank Tokyo Foundation, said that given government support, companies will be able to apply new technology to reducing usage of rare earths and expanding facilities to recycle used materials. The shortage of such facilities in the past, due to low procurement costs, resulted in some companies exporting used rare earths as garbage, he said.

     

    [Lack of reliability of supplies at contractually negotiated prices equals RISK]
    Now that supply of rare earths is a risk for company management, research is being carried out, for example, on cutting the use of dysprosium, one of the rare earths most vulnerable to China's export curbs, in magnets for hybrid cars and wind power turbines, he said.

     

    Japan's rare earth imports from China in 2010 stood at 23,310 tonnes, accounting for some 82 percent of its total imports of the strategic metals. They slumped in January, halving from volumes imported in December.

     

    China, which produces 97 percent of the world's rare earths, slashed its export quota by 40 percent in 2010 from 2009 levels to about 30,000 tonnes and plans to trim it further this year. China has also announced increased export taxes on rare earths. ($1=81.89 Yen)

     

    ----------------------...
    The First to Market Factor:
    The article highlights the critical importance of getting to the market first. The first movers are going to capture long-term contracts for the provision of rare earth concentrates and finished materials here and now.

     

    Substitution Interacts with Production Timelines:
    Factors affecting feasibility of substitution would be performance, cost, and economy of scale. In fact, if a rare earth supplier establishes that they can provide reliable supplies with strict adherence to contractual agreements, the substitution effort itself may become irrelevant.

     

    Looking at it that way, substitution efforts may mostly define a back-up plan. I suspect the primary influence of the "Substitution/ Recycling" factor will be felt mostly among companies that are a long way from producing anything.

     

    Licensing Substitution Technology:
    In addition, other world markets are not likely to have free access to Japan's substitution technology. Costs associated with licensing this technology need to be taken into account when looking at the comparison of using Rare Earths as opposed to alternative materials.

     

    The Reality of Physics:
    I suspect some applications for Rare Earth usage are defined by the physics of the situation, which means that substitution will involve performance degradation.

     

    Availability of Alternative Materials:
    Another factor to consider is the availability of those alternative materials.

     

    Lynas's First to Market Advantage:
    Lynas (LYSDY) is expected to be in full production mode for rare earths from mine to ore concentrates to finished products by the third quarter of this year. The long term contracts they establish at this time will be in effect for five or more years. This equates to real earnings.

     

    Strategic Relevance Vs. Earnings Factor:
    The so-called analysts that have been beating the drum for (MCP) will likely not discuss nor consider the ramifications of 'The Substitution/ Recycling' Issue and how it interacts with MCP's production timeline.

     

    To me, the fundamental factor associated with MCP concerns its strategic relevance. It would be good for the United States to be able to produce strategically important materials within our country. Unfortunately, strategic relevance is not likely to add to the bottom line in the absence of subsidies.

     

    The Hot Air Factor:
    At the current time, MCPs valuation seems to be mostly based on the amount of PR hot air. Some so-called analysts are paid to pump the valuation while ignoring the realities of business fundamentals and other market considerations.

     

    I have no problem making money this way, but the danger is that business fundamentals will eventually pop the balloon. Investors need to be very wary when information concerning business fundamentals are due to be published.

     

    Reading all the comments on Rare Earths in the RE concentrator has really been an eye opener for this information integrator. I hope you find my analysis as useful. 73
    25 Feb 2011, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    Great post, User! When I read the headline, I was afraid that Reuters (Motto: "We Report Everything We Can, Relevant or Not") had actually scooped me. I'm formulating my lead article for our March issue now on the necessity of / who I believe will benefit from recycling PMs, REEs, strategic metals, etc. (Definition of formulating, JS style: staring out the window deciding whether to go skiing after the close / daydreaming / doing some occasional work.)

     

    Reading the article convinced me they took a lot of words to say the usual nothing -- but YOUR analysis was spot on!
    25 Feb 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    Chest Expanding! Thanks Joe, I am highly flattered.
    25 Feb 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note the ref. to tungsten and cobalt - again, the relatively untold story of critical strategic minerals monopolized by China in a manner similar to REEs.

     

    Speaking as an old industrial engineer (a hat I have not worn for a long while, though), research into "alternative" manufacturing methods and materials is something which never ends for successful industrialists like the major Japanese firms. Digging carefully through old (even 20 or more years ago) articles about the automotive area, for instance, will yield stories mentioning experiments in various concepts to build electric motors, batteries, and even refinery catalysts. No one should think that the recent, higher profile articles are really very new or unique, nor that they represent something which will abruptly prove successful (unlike the other dozen alternatives which have been examined and discarded over the intervening decades). This story is best viewed through the "alternative energy" prizm from circa 1974 rather than as actionable investment data liable to abruptly transform Japan from an REE consumer to a manufacturer of magik magnets made from sawdust. If we have learned anything from pouring untold billions down the alternative energy toilet since the Carter presidency, its that research is not a synonym for a profitable industrial application.
    25 Feb 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    A press release from the giant waste recycling company, Sims Metal Management, SMUPF.pk, mentions the desire to obtain recyclable rare earth metals.
    www.24-7pressrelease.c...
    www.simsmm.com/
    simsrecycling.com/abou...
    25 Feb 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1640) | Send Message
     
    Another great Oz company, Valley Boy, and one I am featuring in our financial letter for March. FYI, I use the NYSE-listed ADR for purchases (SMS.) Same company, I just prefer the credibility the Deutsche Bourse, er, NYSE, confers.
    25 Feb 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    I'll be looking forward to reading it, Joseph.
    25 Feb 2011, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    When I read what Japan wants to do, I thought of an allegory.
    Robbing Peter to pay Paul. Material is material. One or some other.
    Either case, Japan has virtually no natural resources of its own unfortunately.
    26 Feb 2011, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): OZ had a good day. S&P ASX +0.49% and Lynas +A$0.065 (+3.52%) and on rising volume too!

     

    If we see similar EOD results, we could expect a close of

     

    US$1.84 x 1.0352 = $1.8944 ($1.89/$1.90).

     

    This seems reasonable since pre-market the 20 day SMA is $1.882, 50 day SMA $1.8988 and my medium trend support/resistance is ~$1.90.

     

    However, we've challenged these values for three days in a row and the *earliest* technical indicator, stochastic, is now out of oversold and crossing above its average today. It's very early and would need confirmation in any case. But it *may* indicate that the challenge is about to be successful as we have seen reduced volume as the price has been going through this (very brief so far) consolidation. Bollinger bands (pre-market $1.776/$1.916) are converging, indicating a change *is* coming, but doesn't indicate direction.

     

    We did hold yesterday at the low I thought we'd see, $1.82, and closed at $1.83. So on the three-day trend we've tended towards rising lows and closes.

     

    I expect today's trading will be another day of consolidation, guessing a trading range of $1.82 - $1.87, maybe $1.88.

     

    But do keep in mind that if knowledgeable investors are pushing the price, they know Mt. Weld is just a little over a week away and at some point they will become fearful of missing a big push up. If that happens they could quickly pile in and drive us out of this narrow range. Falling volume seems to indicate this is likely very soon.

     

    Ungawah, commenting on whether or not our price gets adjusted based on ASX or Frankfurt closing and currency conversions said

     

    "As I understand it, our opening price is adjusted to match what it has closed at in Oz -- adjusted for any currency translation. Check it out tomorrow. Of course the stock is traded in Frankfurt during some of the same time it's traded in the US. I don't know if our price gets adjusted after Frankfurt closes"

     

    If this is correct, we gain a small bit of knowledge that we can use. Everyone who can confirm or deny, whether experimentally or through knowledge, please comment on this.

     

    I'll make this attempt.

     

    Right now (05:39 EST) AUD/$1US = 1.0113. So, last nights AUD close of $1.905 = $1.8837, either $1.88 or $1.89 (we can't presume which way it would get rounded).

     

    So we would look for an open *at* one of those prices.

     

    The Euro/$1US right now (05:43 EST) is 1.3794, but Frankfurt is still trading. I suspect that we would not get adjusted on since it's both trading until 11:00 EST and not the home exchange.

     

    www.boerse-frankfurt.d...

     

    Put LYC in the price box and a drop-down menu lets you pick Lynas.

     

    Results from last evening's trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21.......... 2/22.......... 2/23........ 2/24.......... 2/24
    Last....... 1.910....... 1.865....... 1.870...... 1.840........ 1.905
    $+/-...... -0.020..... -0.045....... 0.005.... -0.030........ 0.065
    Bid......... 1.900....... 1.865....... 1.865...... 1.835......... 1.895
    Offer...... 1.910...... 1.870....... 1.885....... 1.845......... 1.910
    Open..... 1.920....... 1.900....... 1.800...... 1.835......... 1.845
    High....... 1.925....... 1.915....... 1.905....... 1.875......... 1.905
    Low....... 1.865....... 1.865....... 1.800....... 1.820........ 1.830
    Vol 29.729MM 29.124MM 33.011MM 29.321MM 31.374MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    Great job HT.
    25 Feb 2011, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Good work, Soldier!
    25 Feb 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fantastiche. The methodology makes real sense to me, HTL. IMO.

     

    But as I have mentioned in the past, there have been times when ASX led us, and times when we led them. The American markets are large enough to do this, on active trading days in particular. But right now my take is that we are in a period where the Australian markets lead, the Lynas follows. On days when MCP lays doggo, this can have a halo effect on much of the sector, as well. This is particularly true when the 5 primary ASX REE stocks we are interested in (LYC, NTU, ARU, ALK, and GGG) start trading as a bloc.
    25 Feb 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    This could get sticky trying to chase the moving usd/euro and the stock movement. Need to have a spread sheet with live feeds of both to track that as those two variables move about.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    D E L A Y

     

    25 February 2011 Weather Delay for Mount Weld Concentration Plant From: Lynas Website tinyurl.com/4abcgmp

     

    Lynas Corporation Limited (LYSDY) wishes to announce due to heavy rainfall at Mount Weld the first feed of ore into the Mount Weld Concentration Plant is likely to be delayed until the last week of March.

     

    Neither the mine site nor the Concentration Plant have experienced damage with the water diversion channel and localised drainage in and around the mine site and Concentration Plant working effectively.

     

    Construction and commissioning work at Mount Weld was adversely affected from 16 February to 23 February 2011. Work resumed onsite on 24 February 2011 and the weather is predicted to be fine over the coming week by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

     

    As a result of Cyclone Carlos and Cyclone Diana in Western Australia, the Goldfields region and in particular the town of Laverton have experienced unseasonably heavy rainfall from 16 February to 23 February 2011, with over 200mm of rain recorded in this period.
    25 Feb 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crap. We have to wait a few more weeks. This could scuttle our results today, of course...
    25 Feb 2011, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    I'd say "RATS!", but don't want to offend! So, ... CRAP! :-))

     

    I wonder if this will affect today's action.

     

    If it pushed it down, Citi and the others like them could benefit.

     

    I *hate* to think that would be the case.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    I am hearing whispers in my ear of "Patience jackass, patience".

     

    God I hope I am not becoming delusional.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    "God I hope I am not becoming delusional"

     

    If you're speaking directly to HIM, ...

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. Well, maybe only if HE answers you directly.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    User, do you know what time that news was released?

     

    Possible this might, given the little amount of info which comes out of there, actually help awareness of the progress/closeness to production for those who do not know - and not hold up the stock.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Rain... I found it this morning between 4 and 5am Pacific time... I don't see a time stamp on the document itself.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    It's interesting that the Lynas news on the delay of the ore concentrator has not been picked up by Yahoo Finance's In Play news blog. Its certainly a highly relevant piece of news.
    25 Feb 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1001) | Send Message
     
    Released after the market closed in Oz.

     

    They probably figured it a good idea to let people cool off over the weekend and avoid knee-jerk reactions among shareholders..
    25 Feb 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    This probably PARTIALLY explains the reason why Nick sold some of his share holdings.

     

    Been in the engineering construction industry for quite a few years delays are normal and expected. I wasn't surprised by this news one bit. Also expect delays(slippage) in LAMP as well, construction NEVER finishes on time. Expect REALISTIC date of first production to begin 2012 Feb.

     

    Also even without the rainy weather , i suspect(Speculation) that there would be delays anyways but luckily the weather can be used as a proper excuse.
    I am sorry to disappoint you guys but i feel i have to speak out the truth. All i ask of you guys is to not expect too much, stay positive and realistic.
    25 Feb 2011, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » User, its highly relevant also if the idea is to screen news to fit a template of some kind. Its odd which news gets hyped, and which is edited out by the MSM. Always has been. Right now we are seeing a general consensus arise from the pundits and xperts that, since China looks to be losing their fight with the WTO on some of their trade manipulations in a few areas far distant from the REE sector, that the REE sector has hit a reset button to 2003, and that its only a matter of time before China caves in to the bureaucrats at the WTO. This gets back to the whole globalist tranzi (transnational socialist) philosophy which permiates the lamestream media. Bureaucrats at any international organization which fits their template (even very loosely) are to be revered and obeyed.

     

    From the viewpoint of this herd of zerosum thinkers, China will now 'fess up that they've been having us all on with this talk of limited resources, extensive environmental devastation, and rampant lawless strip mining and smuggling... And resume their "proper" place in the new world order, supplying rare earth oxides and metals for a fraction of their market value.
    26 Feb 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Holy cow! Bid/ask 14 mins before open $1.91/$1.92, slightly *apparently* biased to buy side.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    My work area and what I am seeing on the screens both look good today...
    Now if I could only find something to get the blood stains up from earlier in the week!
    25 Feb 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Hyrule
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    I keep studying NATUF, and I cannot get comfortable with a forward EPS estimate for them. 2 projects, one running, one developing...
    one has only 6 years of life, the other 11... 16K/ton for tungsten,
    but they sell different forms and concentrates...

     

    Thought I'd mention a company I just found today, a gold miner, MDW. I could mention some others I like too, like AVGCF (gold) and RVMID (silver/copper). Dare I drop GSX? GSX is a little funky...

     

    As regards rare earth stocks, I am rather committed to only buying at the 150 EMA. They are crazy volatile, and I know some good buying days will come eventually. Certainly before the good earnings...
    25 Feb 2011, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NATUF is square in the middle of "the other Chinese REE" story, ie, China's near-monopoly on Tungsten production. Except without the MSM spotlight. EMC (EMMCF.PK) is another example, or at least, it WAS, until they recently decided to lose their Tungsten focus and run after scandium projects.

     

    Compare your REE plan vs Lynas' plans, they don't match up very well, though you might do OK potentially with MCP and some of the more overpriced Canadians...
    25 Feb 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    May be too early to know, but, looks like our investors over here may have liked getting an update on Mt. Weld...getting harder and harder to deny reality.

     

    Lynas say: no pumping press releases, no fluff, no distortion of reality, no paid analysts or phony coverages, just the facts... and then when you know...you'll know...and you'll know that you know...and you should've known...
    25 Feb 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. One of the things I like about them.
    25 Feb 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking last night...time seems about right to add QSURD back in. I couldn't get my powder lined up in time this a.m. and missed the initial move. I set a buy in @ 5.65...still a fair price. I think this would be a sell for me at around 7.20 in a short time frame possibly. Not to sound presumptuous...I just bellieve it superior to AVL and think markets will like the move. I do not want it long term, but think it due a nice ride in short order....good time to pick up IMO.
    25 Feb 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My current buy target for QSURD is very similar, $5.62...
    25 Feb 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Last year QSURD released its F/S on Feb 26. This year's should be released soon. It will be the first audit by a Bg 4 auditing firm. I'm hoping they are just waiting to get this audit report released before getting on AMEX. When it is on AMEX I think it look better than AVL. Since AVL has at least a third more shares outstanding, even if the market treats QSURD and AVL equally, that should give QSURD a price over $9 (compared to AVL's current $7). Disclosure: QSURD is my largest REE holding.
    25 Feb 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY) We just got a milestone: hit the Fibonacci 50% $1.93, above the 20 and 50 day SMAs, $1.887 and $1.9008 respectively, and held above them all day long. 4 more indicators curling towards the positive, even on a very low-volume day.

     

    Needless to say, today's open and subsequent action sure caught me by surprise.

     

    Right now, we're looking to close $1.93, maybe higher, since now sell-off seems to be materializing.

     

    Only real negative right now is the upper Bollinger (5 period) is currently $1.9952. So it might cap us later on for a brief while.

     

    But it should be for only a brief while as the ADX and related are also trending towards a more positive bent. This is the second day only though, so no handsprings across the lawn of the royal palace are yet called for.

     

    On a side note, it *does* appear that we don't have any opening price adjustment based on ASX close *if* today is any indication.

     

    And to our Aussie friends: get on the horse boys, you're lagging with a piddling 3%+ gain! we made 5.46% *if* we close at $1.93.

     

    :-))

     

    $1.94 is looking possible ATM!

     

    And the best part? Our gap to fill is only 1 penney!

     

    Um, maybe I should take that back. We're using (future) toilet paper to buy while y'all are using real dollars!

     

    Still wishing everybody down there the best of fortunes and quick recovery.

     

    And if you *do* get a TP shortage, we have plenty to give away! "The Bernanke" will print forever, and ever, and ...

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    Needless to say I meant "NO sell of is materializing".

     

    I need new wetware between the chair and keyboard!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2011, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.cnbc.com/id/158402...

     

    Nov 2010 Video Sojitz and Lynas Deal

     

    One of the few rare television appearances by Nick Curtis talking about the deal on CNBC.

     

    PS I almost cracked up when the Female host asked the question...show lack of research on her part about the company.
    27 Feb 2011, 03:34 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    maybe the interview sparked some buying interest, since we all know it is coming at some point. Was struck by NC's almost matter of factness, the way he answered the questions. Sometimes a live interview like this spurs interest from the lemmings.
    27 Feb 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I personally believe that even minor delays with Mt. Weld and/or Lamp will not produce any real scale-able backlash from investing community. Many are in a state of denial and, IMO, any reminder that this thing is really coming - and soon - is a good thing.
    27 Feb 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF):(LYSDY): Just ck'd ASX shortly after open. +/- A$0.00 @ A$1.905 right now on 102K shares. I'll give it a little time and see what it looks like.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Feb 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (703) | Send Message
     
    Via
    e-mail.

     

    Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC / OTC: LYSDY) is pleased to advise that the average Mount Weld composition price has increased to US$112.26 kg/REO on a FOB basis. This is a rise of over 27 per cent in the past week.

     

    Nice
    27 Feb 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas has a new investor presentation on line pdf:

     

    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    27 Feb 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    pg. 13 of PDF shows Mt. Pass to be 20k ton, but i think has been updated to 40k ton with the Jan 24 new bond issuance.
    27 Feb 2011, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jeanny, thats 20Kt is correct. No plans for 40kt. You must be confused with Molycorp =)
    27 Feb 2011, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2212) | Send Message
     
    It looks like Lynas is set to produce over the 20kt estimate in a couple of years once they start digging into the Duncan Deposit. It looks like another reason for optimism as time goes by while we keep checking the prices.
    www.lynascorp.com/page...
    imagesignal.comsec.com...
    27 Feb 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I did mean MCP. Mt. Pass is MCP. I was referring to the data on the PDF that Lynas just provided which Tripleblack shared with us.
    Yet even at the targeted 40k ton, it does not change the direction of the situation Lynas is presenting.
    28 Feb 2011, 03:40 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    My apologies....well in that case this should give you a clue of what Lynas really thinks of MCP production target of that year!
    28 Feb 2011, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jeanny,
    Perhaps Lynas wants more than talk before they put the claim into their calculation. After all Lynas has been through (Global Financial Crisis, FIRB block of Chinese funding, Years of Construction, Years of Planning, ect.), maybe they know something Molycorp does not know. Namely, that just because Molycorp says they will produce a bunch of unsold rare earth does not make it a done deal. Lynas has not made this update in the Feb or March presentations. And anyone who knows the industry or does the research would not count this production either. Analysts and Moly investors are making total fools of themselves. I see no reason for Lynas to join them.
    28 Feb 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Lynas up nicely in Oz. Opened @ 1.95 (.05 above Friday's asx close) reached as high as 2.01 and now @ 1.96 on nice volume. The Mt. weld story released Monday morning in OZ puts a positive take right from the article's title on the opening/delay. Me likey...

     

    www.proactiveinvestors...
    27 Feb 2011, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    Here's an updated estimate of global rare earth reserves per Garth Hatch:

     

    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    27 Feb 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    LYC Revenue...OMG does the DR Evil Sign.....1 BILLION DOLLARS!
    28 Feb 2011, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    Could you please translate this into English OMG?
    28 Feb 2011, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I actually understand him, OG...

     

    Dr. Evil sign (lifted pinky, from the movie character takeoff), as a form of victory based upon new estimate of LYC (Australian exchange symbol for Lynas) REO earnings with about 20%+ boost due to market prices going up, which puts them close to $1billion for the first year of operations when they open up Mount Weld over the next 4 weeks...
    28 Feb 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the translation! Glad I own some.
    28 Feb 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Well, another Monday morning & at 5:20 EST my day starts a wee bit brighter as even when the S&P ASX is showing off a miniscule -0.03%, Lynas finished up +2.36%.

     

    Apparently, as noted by others above, the notice of delay was seen as a net positive as that's when the PPS here in the U.S. took a jump that surprised the heck out of me. Add in the mentioned REE bucket price update, the presentations, ... and it seems that a nice move upwards is in the works.

     

    Lynas on the ASX is above the 20 day SMA, which is curling up, by ~7 cents now and regaining the ground it recently lost to the S&P ASX index. I expect it won't be long before it overtakes and begins regularly exceeding the index performance for a short while. One caveat is that volume is just running pretty much average, so we can't determine that there's really *strong* momentum by this move. Maybe it's just a "Monday effect" though.

     

    As I mentioned in another comment, in the U.S. market, we had achieved a small milestone on the technical indicators as we penetrated and closed above the 20 & 50 day SMAs, the Fibonacci 50% re-trace and a resistance at ~$1.81, and the intermediate-term resistance & support line at ~$1.89/$1.90, as near as I can tell, on Friday.

     

    But, volume is low and trending lower, on average. Not unusual for a Friday, but we really need to see a pick-up in that area. It's desirable to see reducing volume as we either consolidate or near critical technical points, so it's not much concern for me right now.

     

    And, I do need to keep it in context: volume is returning to trend seen before the big run up that started with the MSM pumping in December. The ADD market is behaving normally I guess.

     

    Results from last evening's ASX trading.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/28
    Last...... 1.950
    $+/-...... 0.045
    Bid........ 1.945
    Offer.... 1.950
    Open.... 1.945
    High..... 2.010
    Low...... 1.935
    Vol 31.394MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/21.......... 2/22.......... 2/23........ 2/24.......... 2/24
    Last....... 1.910....... 1.865....... 1.870...... 1.840........ 1.905
    $+/-...... -0.020..... -0.045....... 0.005.... -0.030........ 0.065
    Bid......... 1.900....... 1.865....... 1.865...... 1.835......... 1.895
    Offer...... 1.910...... 1.870....... 1.885....... 1.845......... 1.910
    Open..... 1.920....... 1.900....... 1.800...... 1.835......... 1.845
    High....... 1.925....... 1.915....... 1.905....... 1.875......... 1.905
    Low....... 1.865....... 1.865....... 1.800....... 1.820........ 1.830
    Vol 29.729MM 29.124MM 33.011MM 29.321MM 31.374MM

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/14.......... 2/15.......... 2/16......... 2/17.......... 2/18
    Last...... 1.955........ 1.965....... 1.920......... 1.945........ 1.930
    $+/-....... 0.055....... 0.010...... -0.045....... 0.025...... -0.015
    Bid........ 1.950........ 1.960........ 1.915........ 1.945........ 1.925
    Offer..... 1.955........ 1.970........ 1.920....... 1.950........ 1.935
    Open.... 1.925........ 1.970........ 1.965........ 1.930........ 1.955
    High...... 1.975....... 1.980......... 1.965........ 1.965........ 1.960
    Low...... 1.920........ 1.950........ 1.910........ 1.915........ 1.925
    Vol 32.124MM 27.047MM 27.592MM 26.914MM 25.864MM

     

    Bill
    28 Feb 2011, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Snapshot in Sydney:

     

    LYC $1.95, up $.045
    NTU .60, down .02
    ARU 1.23, up .010
    ALK 1.165, Flat
    GGG 1.295, up .08

     

    Greenland Minerals making a move...
    28 Feb 2011, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    New announcement of 11% increase in REE prices, with update of sitrep at Arafura.

     

    This 11% increase relates to their specific basket of rare earths, but a similar bump would also apply to any REE stock's reserves.

     

    Note that THIS increase in world market prices (ex-China) comes on the heels of a similar increase about 2 weeks ago...

     

    Doubtless this will further infuriate the zerosummers among the pundits and xperts - who will have to thump their drums harder, and chant their "rare earths are not rare" mantra louder than ever.
    28 Feb 2011, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8728) | Send Message
     
    It will be interesting to see if there is a multiplier effect from this. 11% REE up 22% stock up?
    28 Feb 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Seems there might be 2x. PM had a bit of upside trading, although that really can't be trusted. Still do like the direction of the move. Going to hold for the short/medium term , that's for sure.
    28 Feb 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

     

    Arafura Nolan Project update.
    28 Feb 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the subject of alternative methods to using rare earth elements...

     

    I'm a car guy. Mechanic, do it myselfer, and I have moderated a major car site for years. I've been a judge at car shows, and a car restorer and enthusiast...

     

    And I'm old enough that I overlap the pre and post-catalytic converter process.

     

    Catalytic converters use some rare earths, but also some much more precious elements, like platinum and palladium. Due to the high costs of these metals, researchers have been looking for alternatives for over 40 years. For the most part, their solutions have involved new mixtures of precious materials (pure gold is featured in several "solutions"). Japanese scientists recently discovered a method of creating "artificial" palladium - though, LOL, the process cost about 100 times more than the real thing, and featured replacement materials which were even pricier than palladium!

     

    Japan's leftist government just announced an $80billion program to seek alternatives to rare earths. Reading over the announcement, it was spooky for me - I swear I could hear a halting southern drawl in the background as Jimmah Carter exhorted us in the 1970's to look to alternative sources for oil, and to throw billions of dollars down a rabbithole in the process.

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Oddly enough, the new policy initiative from Japan includes a footnote about seeking out and buying sources of rare earths...

     

    With $80billion to throw around...

     

    Do the math. That exceeds the collective market capital of the entire ex-China Rare Earth Sector!

     

    Could Japan just BUY every REE stock on the list? Yes, and with what is effectively pocket change for them... But I don't expect anything so dramatic. What IS certain is that a major new player has walked onto the field, one with extremely deep pockets. This player may intend to play both sides of the ball, too, but the impact over the next decade is very likely to be on only ONE side, the side where we are invested.
    28 Feb 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Took some profits on UCORE

     

    Added more QSURD on the dip

     

    Patience wearing thin with the stepchild in my portfolio - Metamec
    28 Feb 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18505) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): 12:26 EST +8.02%, +$0.066, $0.889.

     

    Volume strong, breakout!

     

    Tech indications support it, all curling to positive side.

     

    Next Fibonnaci (short-term) resistance $0.89, $0.93 longer term, intermediate trend resistance ~$0.98, prior PPS resistance ~$1.02

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ALERT! The train is leaving the station, please hold on....

     

    Please go to the new Concentrator:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    28 Feb 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
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