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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 8, 2011 190 comments
    Mar 8, 2011 4:45 PM | about stocks: IQ, REE

    Chart showing the way Lynas and GWM are swapping the lead over the past week...  Also the reason I am long both...


    Matamec finally breaks out of the pack.


    6 Month chart demonstrating the relationship of the 3 frontrunners.  Despite MCP's grandeous promises, it is GWM which is clearly dominating...

    Until Lynas brings the first modern processing plant ex-China on line, at which I believe things suddenly change.


    Some pretty silversmithing work by my wife.  Why I always laugh when I'm asked if we invest in physical precious metals!  Just a reminder that the idea with the vertically integrated business plan most of these REE companies are chasing so hard is truly a race to create not just rich ore, or concentrated mixtures, but the pure metals, seperated oxides, and precious alloys that hold the promise of profits.
    Stocks: IQ, REE
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Comments (190)
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  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Sister sitting here, drooling over that bracelet! Beautiful work!
    8 Mar 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Maya, tell your sister thanks for the compliment. Nancy makes those pieces from scratch, starting from a spool of pm wire (sterling silver, gold or gold filled).

     

    Last post from the prior Concentrator, by Mayascribe:

     

    HTL: (GWMGF) I have, on a one year chart, the bottom Bollinger Band being .73, and the upper at 1.06. Simple moving average is .91, and trending downward since February 22. Keltner Channels are nearly the same levels, and the same trend.

     

    William's %R reads minus 13.70. The volume rate of change is negative 45.77%. Stochastic RSI .97. Points Price Occillator is the one technical "buy" signal that I can find, resting at 0.01.

     

    Caveats aside, from a technical standpoint, it "looks" like Great Western will pull back from today's closing price.
    8 Mar 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Now she's upgraded and is asking me to buy the bracelet for her!

     

    Happy Fat Tuesday to all REE commenters!
    8 Mar 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    HT: Hate to ask since you have already done so much for GW today. We ended +.01 here today with Lynas...a bit of a suprise to me. Assuming there is no major movement tonight in Oz, I would think this means we are nearing the bottom here. Could still make 1.99/2.00, but today at least appeared to mark a bit of resistance downward. What do you make? I had said a week ago we might be able to get back to 2.09 to add but had been hoping for 1.99. I'm thinking we won't see it. What say you?
    8 Mar 2011, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I was pleased to see that price action yesterday. Since we quite often follow the ASX, I thought we would have some downward pressure, and we did.

     

    From yesterday
    ======================...
    But we do have some gaps remaining that need to be filled until a new higher trend is established, so some additional downside could be expected today. This gap is $2.00-$2.08. I wouldn't expect to fill it completely today as that would require a much larger than normal intra-day price range and one higher than the ASX activity would indicate, if that has any relationship to what happens here. I think we'd have to see a higher volume too for us to close it today.
    ======================...

     

    "This gap is $2.00-$2.08" is the notable thing I think.

     

    Both ends of a gap often act as resistance or support. Yesterday $2.08 acted as support as our low was $2.09 (with this stuff, there is a certain amount of imprecision and I consider that 1 penny difference to be effectively nil). And it was hit *very* early in trading and stayed around there for only ~46 minutes, trading $2.09/$2.10. Then we stepped smartly up to $2.13/$2.14 by 11:56 and stayed there for the rest of the day until the last 5 minutes when we did $2.13/$2.14 rising finally to $2.15.

     

    So yesterday gives a couple of reads.

     

    First, we didn't follow the ASX. Is this a temporary condition or are we diverging for a while. TB has noted behavior both ways off and on, including that sometimes we lead in the U.S. We'll have to watch and see how this develops.

     

    BTW, my best estimate of the possible low, $2.04, was predicated on this following of the ASX action. They had a spread, IIRC, of about 10 cents and that same spread would have put us around that $2.04 mark, figuring a high around the $2.13 mark, my anticipated high using the 3/1 gap day range of $2.08/$2.13. But we ended up just doing a "normal" spread of about 6 cents as the support of $2.08 came into play.

     

    Back to the main thread ...

     

    Second, the fact that we hit the low early and moved on up after a relatively brief period at that low indicates some bullish sentiment. *But*, the "truth teller" (volume) didn't chime in with support as it was both lower than the prior five days and below 10 day average. And it is declining. So we can't count on yesterday's action as an omen of good things to come yet.

     

    Third, the volume we had yesterday has some significant intra-day behavior.

     

    The majority of it came during the opening period drop to the $2.09 level, through 09:40, and in the last 11 minutes of trading. In 15 minute blocks, the first and last totaled 327.81K out of a total daily volume of 829.88K, or 39.5% of the total for the day. Only slightly unusual. *But*, the first period was on declining price and the last was on falling volume into the end of the day as price was elevated (trading $2.13/$2.14) and rose to $2.15.

     

    This can't be considered good. Not necessarily bad as movements to extremes often experience high volume on drops and falling volumes on rises as indecision rules. If both situations were reversed, lower volume on drops and higher volumes on rise, that would be a definite plus though. So we don't have a definite plus.

     

    Also, consider that the $2.14/$2.15 trades totaled only 11K shares at EOD. Not a strong indicator of bullish sentiment at the $2.15 price. Could even be someone "painting the tape" to draw in buyers to sell to.

     

    But all we can say from this observation is that we don't have a strong indication of bullish sentiment. And if I were to have to lay a bet, I think I would lean towards a bearish side.

     

    Last, stepping back into the daily chart, putting the above aside, I have to do a normal assessment - read that as WAFFLE-WAFFLE-WAFFLE! ;-))

     

    We bounced off a potential support of $2.08. Good.

     

    We had falling volume on a move down over the last 4 days, indicating the downtrend may be ending. Good.

     

    We have several rising indicators, but rising only barely or flat at this time. Could be its just because we are early in the turn, but we have to consider it not quite so good yet.

     

    Stochastic is below 50, still falling and well below its average, which is also declining. Not good.

     

    So all this, in aggregate, says there *may* be a bullish bias but it would be better to wait for confirmation of the turn, *unless* you absolutely have to have every penny of possible profit.

     

    And that's a dangerous game as price could move lower and you would still have missed some pennies.

     

    The last consideration: are you trading it or investing it? This is important. If you're trading it you do want to catch near the swings for the buys and sells.

     

    If your investing in it, swings don't matter much as the longer-term payoff easily buries any few pennies missed from the absolute lowest buy-in. In that case, nothing wrong with an entry anywhere around the current levels, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    As always, very good analysis.
    9 Mar 2011, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, HTL - and bukdow. I am sitting on a mountain of this stock, and holding at this point, but I agree with the observation that Lynas is a buy at current valuations.

     

    IF we see confirmation (several days would do it) that the American market is leading ASX, then we will also see pricing react more strongly to the upcoming events from MCP. This means that MCP's impact could push prices either direction, of course, since we really can't predict what MCP is up to.

     

    Pundits have been trying to fix investor's attention on MCP's likely profit per share from the recent upsurge in REE prices (MCP continues to produce tiny tonnage of REO's from ore processed over a decade ago and run through their obsolete processing plant), but I consider these numbers to be largely meaningless...

     

    But the pundits may have a nice "number" to shout from the rooftops, and if its combined with other good news (I won't reiterate my personal prophecy in this case, but the news could include initial drill survey data, announcement of the state government which will be funneling taxpayer subsidies into MCP's coffers to build Hitachi's new magnet factory, Federal government subsidy "news", etc)...

     

    MCP could once again suck up all the oxygen in the room.

     

    Of course, eventually it will become apparent that they are still a long way from actually building any new infrastructure, but the pumpers thumping on their drums will be very loud, indeed.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    TB , This is for my own Education sake ....why in your opinion is LYC a buy at current valuation? Please enlighten me because i want to see what you see.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For someone unlike us, say someone seeking to add to a recent buy-in or to initiate a position, these are likely to be "low" prices. After Mount Weld cranks up, we will probably never see low $2 prices again (I expect us to be looking at a $1 gain very soon).

     

    There is also the near certainty that the same cycle of manipulation I believe is taking place will inevitably continue to the next level, ie, they will "upgrade" their "rating" of Lynas, and pump the price upward just as hard as they drove it downward.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I can live with Great Western, the stock I own that is really bugging me is Pine Tree.
    8 Mar 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pinetree Capital takes patience. I have been in and out of that one a lot, and misssed half the big recent upsurge because I struggled to gauge it. I suspect the recent downdraft is related to the action in Uranium, which I also find puzzling.
    8 Mar 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    I suspect it is because the stock was bolstered by a buy back, which stopped.
    8 Mar 2011, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what it means, but Pinetree Capital shows up as owning 11 million shares of Matamec (almost 10% of the fully diluted 138 million shares outstanding), with a "related since" date of 2/17/2011. I don't know anything about them. Is their involvement a good sign for Matamec?
    8 Mar 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    What exactly do you find puzzling, TB?
    8 Mar 2011, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    There are a few others here who have followed this stock longer than I and/or own it who I'm sure will provide better help for you. Pinetree owns interest in quite a few stocks tracked and/or owned here. My thinking would be that

     

    a) their stock has risen steadily for the most part to this point so someone has faith in their investments and

     

    b) A company investing heavily in REEs probably does their homework before investing
    8 Mar 2011, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pinetree's valuation of their own assets seems out of kilter with the market sometimes. We'll see what their updated financials reveal...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Hwo does PNPFF calculate the NAV? Does this disclosure include the private companies in their portfolio?
    9 Mar 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    Regarding vanadium

     

    www.resourceinvestor.c...
    8 Mar 2011, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Apella (APAFF) jumped this morning albeit still on tiny volume on what I assume was a favorable ruling last night in regards to land stakes.

     

    I made my first purchase in this sector adding the aforementioned Apella and am closing looking at Largo (LGORF) but I have alot to learn regarding these specific names.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Here is a good article on vanadium's potential answered with some thoughtful comments.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    12 Mar 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Some Lynas options being exercised...currently trading @ 2.08 down under...

     

    stocks.us.reuters.com/...
    8 Mar 2011, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Pinetree is betting uranium will go back up to 2007 levels.
    They should be out with their new monthly NAV on March 15th.
    Here's a chart that shows how uranium has performed since the 2007 high:
    www.infomine.com/chart...
    8 Mar 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the nuclear news coming out of Japan might be good for a dip in the uranium price.
    www.bloomberg.com/news...
    12 Mar 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking along the same lines, but in relation to UCORE. I hope the folks holding don't get scalped by this.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    How Chinese environmental regulations will impact ree industry:
    resourceinvestingnews....
    8 Mar 2011, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • JJL2U
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Hey All,

     

    I'm new to investing in REE's. I picked up GWMGF between .74 and .81c and and will continue to buy on any weakness. I also have started to accumulate UURAF, from $1.15 to $1.00, taking advantage of this dip. Bought into LYSCF at $1.85 but am looking to add to that position as well. Any input from those of you experienced REE investors, with respect to buying on pullbacks, would be VERY MUCH appreciated!!! Take care.
    9 Mar 2011, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Welcome, JJ. Congrats on some good acquisitions (and at fair prices) to start you off there IMO!
    9 Mar 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Dumping UURAF today. Those drill results tell me the thing is worthless. I'm honest with you guys. I tell you if my stock is going to zero and Ucore is going there. I believe the government will shift their HREE attention to Wings/ Pea Ridge now. Just MO.
    9 Mar 2011, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    OK....Let's talk about this a bit. Not sure if you read my earlier posts re: concerns over UCore and those pretty ugly numbers. TB and I had some back and forth over it. I concluded it still a good bet long-term but no longer a potential beast. I, personally, determined that it wouldn't become a dud, however. They are now a uranium company with some light/slight heavy rees. The meetings with government officials and heavy ree production plans sent them trading in a new range higher than the previous range, but we were considering this a good buy at former prices with political backers before all the fuss over high concentration heavies potential. Keep in mind most, but not all, here hold this stock at lower-than-current prices.

     

    I certainly am not completely sold on this being a lock...precisely why I would love some more discussion. Would love to hear your thoughts...as well as more from TB and anyone else...
    9 Mar 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    I think it's a dud now. I don't think there is enough uranium or rare earth for the US to justify tearing up an Alaskan coastal island with these results. Too much environmental damage for too little product. I can't see Washington DC going that route. The Greens won't take the pain and the conservatives can't justify the cost. More likely they do a plan with Moly, Pea Ridge and Music Valley. Ucore's loss maybe Great Western's gain perhaps. But the more I look at the HREE the more I buy NTU (Northern Materials).
    This will sound crazy but my Canadian favorites are GW, Pacific Wildcat and Montero Mining. I don't like anything else honestly. And I trade the TSX so it's not a nationalism thing. I guess I'm more in line with Kingsnorth. The projects are too junior, need too great a cost and the TREO numbers are not there.
    9 Mar 2011, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » UCore has much more in their asset base than just the Bokan claim. They also have projects in Ontario, Nunavut, and 2 in New Foundland. The Alaska mine was a former Uranium mine producing extremely high grade ore.

     

    Bokan has no indigenous population - is located in a part of Alaska which has been set aside for resource development since the original Uranium mine was established decades ago - and enjoys strong political support at the local, state and Federal levels.

     

    Like several other similar deposits around the world, the price of Uranium (which can only go up, Russia is about to become a net importer of radioactive ore as their START treaty quotas are completed) is sufficient to drive the project. By-products (like over 300million pounds of REOs and considerable niobium) which doubtless would NOT be of sufficient grade to support commercial mining will still be a key source of profits as a byproduct. This sort of relationship is common in mines. Much of the silver and gold produced comes from mines where base metal production essentially pays the bills, and the precious metals are just byproducts.

     

    Uranium is why I bought them originally, at about half their current stock price, and back then REEs were not so heavily touted in general.

     

    I suspect we will be hearing more from them about REEs. This was the first set of results, but its unlikely to be the last.

     

    I would agree that the low percentage REE ore samples are not good news. I have downgraded this stock from one I was accumulating, to one where I am holding it for a longer term. This moves it from my front tier core holdings to what I call my penny stock "sock drawer", but I still believe the Uranium play has legs.

     

    As for Wings, I have been keeping an eye on that magnetic fe play for a while now. Interesting company, and if we had more details about the REE aspect it might be even more interesting. Once again, the only way I see the REEs being mined would be as a byproduct of the magnetic iron, which is the bulk of the deposit. This deposit btw strongly resembles some of the prime Chinese deposits. My problem is that their web site is hopelessly out of date (still talking about getting a new processing plant up and running by 2008, which was 3 years ago, of course). Not much recent news, just a blurb about a joint venture with a private company back in October 2010.

     

    Wings MIGHT turn into something interesting, one day, but it is off-putting right now.
    9 Mar 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The Music Valley idea for rare earth mining seems problematic to me. The isolated valley is wedged between the western Pinto Mountains and Twentynine Palms Mountain. The southern flanks of the valley are within the 1994 expansion of Joshua Tree National Park next to that part of the park designated as a backcountry transition subzone. The southeastern part of the valley is now within the Pinto Mountains Wilderness, taking up the northwestern section of that wilderness. All of the valley is considered to be desert tortoise habitat. The valley has one dirt access road out of it. That would be the Gold Park Road winding through a canyon out of the valley to the southeastern part of the city of Twentynine Palms. It actually cuts through a corner of the national park for about a mile.
    Special Report No. 79 written in 1964 details the valley's geology.
    There are some interesting old gold mines in that part of the desert.
    I just came back from the desert so I have it on my mind.
    www.wilderness.net/ind...
    www.mindat.org/maps.ph...
    www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/...
    www.flickr.com/photos/.../
    www.ci.twentynine-palm...
    www.flickr.com/photos/.../
    12 Mar 2011, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Keep in mind Wings Pea Ridge is private. Right now, I doubt they will spend much effort trying to tell their story.
    12 Mar 2011, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): In an earlier reply to RainH2O, I gave a brief (LoL!) assessment of the prospects for Lynas in the U.S. So I'll let that stand and just say that as the S&P ASX finished down 0.80%, Lynas finished down another 2 cents - 0.95%. PPS looks to be still about 7 cents above the 20 day SMA, which is rising, so there is likely some more downside. An "eyeball estimate" makes me think pps will hit ~$2.03 before the 20 day SMA intersects and we might reasonably look for an end to this down leg.

     

    Results from last evening's ASX trading.

     

    I seem to have overlooked 3/1.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/28............. 3/2........... 3/3........... 3/4............ 3/7............. 3/8.......... 3/9
    Last...... 1.950......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200....... 2.100....... 2.090.... 2.070
    $+/-...... 0.045......... 0.110....... 0.070..... -0.090...... -0.100...... -0.010. -0.020
    Bid........ 1.945......... 2.200....... 2.270....... 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.060
    Offer.... 1.950.......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200........ 2.110....... 2.100... 2.080
    Open.... 1.945......... 2.070....... 2.260....... 2.310........ 2.200....... 2.120... 2.110
    High..... 2.010......... 2.230....... 2.300........ 2.330........ 2.220....... 2.190... 2.120
    Low...... 1.935......... 2.040....... 2.190........ 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.030
    Vol 31.394MM 65.020MM 61.656MM 36.141MM 30.832MM 33.415MM 25.879MM

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    that potential 2.03 mark is in dollars I see...and here on the OTC (LYSCF) I presume?
    9 Mar 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    No, I ws speaking strictly ASX, as I noted.

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    I just read a prediction that MCP should go to $80 a share! But, this one takes the cake...
    www.businessinsider.co...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They might do it. The behavior of momentum traders with hot money burning a hole in their account can be illogical at times.

     

    MCP earning a "big profit" based upon recycling tailings and old ore at an antique facility should only bring chuckles to anyone with a brain. The valuation of the company is 99.9% based upon future expectations, not current station-keeping...

     

    Sigh. I am preparing, however, to be annoyed.

     

    We should not forget, however, that someone on the MCP side of the equation could easily make a mis-step, in which case disappointment (which would come as a cruel shock to their less atuned investor class) could drive their stock price down.

     

    I believe that MCP very well COULD be worth $75 or more by 2015 or 2016, but not today.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    WOW AND IT COMING FROM JP MORGAN MUAHUAUHAHUAHUAHUAHUAH...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1715) | Send Message
     
    Re momentum players, OG...

     

    "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of these yahoos." (With apologies to H.L. Mencken !!)
    9 Mar 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    National Public Radio. This morning. Piece on uranium mining new permit ban in large area around the grand canyon. Ongoing, I gather.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The pocket moratorium continues. Voldemort and his Death Eaters are merciless...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I think the potential mineral withdrawal will have an impact on American Energy Fields, AEFI.
    www.americanenergyfiel...
    www.azcentral.com/ariz...
    www.blm.gov/az/st/en/p...
    12 Mar 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Hold on... breaking news... preparing the post...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (March 9, 2011) China rare earth accounting change masks export slump From: Reuters By Tom Miles

     

    China's customs authority has changed the way it presents rare earths exports, a Reuters analysis of the figures showed on Wednesday, giving the impression that January's exports were six times bigger than they would have been under the old methodology.

     

    China's exports of rare earth elements and compounds fell to 646.8 tonnes in January, down 88.8 percent from 5,784 tonnes a year earlier, according to a like-for-like comparison of detailed data issued by China's General Administration of Customs.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^...
    Graphic of the effect of the change:
    tinyurl.com/4zsh24b
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^...
    The customs office also publishes its own headline figure for rare earths exports, which until December 2010 were listed simply as "rare earths". But the January data shows "rare earths and products", bulking up the month's export volume to 4,087 tonnes.

     

    The effect of the change is to make China's rare earth exports for the month appear six times bigger than they would have been under the old methodology, and to imply a 44 percent fall in the average value of a ton of exports from December, rather than a 15 percent rise. tinyurl.com/4cs46wu
    9 Mar 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, the pundits got it wrong again.

     

    Now some of them (who pretend to actually be "journalists") will have to whisper a footnote on their personal blogs to correct the error they shouted from the pulpit of their nationally syndicated television show.

     

    Tsk, tsk.

     

    Also, LOL again, it would appear that the Chinese government is taking a leaf from our very own BLS (bureau of labor statistics)...
    9 Mar 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Here's news on the EPA and Molycorp- Questa Mine Clean Up:
    www.therepublic.com/vi.../
    9 Mar 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF), (LYSCF), (LYSDY)

     

    It's looking like today will be a *very* low volume day all around.

     

    If we get a break either way, that could change. But right now, with no real movement in bid/ask, nobody budging much from their price, I expect we get some movement late in the day (lunch & later), but little volume and then tomorrow we get a break.

     

    And the whole basic materials sector is down, and the various miners (metallic and non-metallic, gold & silver, ...) big. Non-metallic -2.77%, iron & steel -1.31%, gold/silver -1.06%.

     

    So, we may get nailed by some kind of sector rotation going on.

     

    Services (+0.21%) & healthcare (+0.04%) the only positive sectors right now.

     

    Oh! Just noticed the S&P - not sector rotation I guess as much as all sectors being fled.

     

    As I type this healthcare went negative (-0.05) and services dropped to +0.15%

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Quiet day. But I guess they don't want Moly going into the conference call. What, the truth might hurt? Fancy that... Man are those guys clowns.
    9 Mar 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I know this sounds irrational, but I almost want to sell Pine Tree out of utter disgust.
    9 Mar 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Reports 21/7MM vs est 13MM.

     

    Avg sale price more than double 4q vs 3q.

     

    $0.03/shr vs. est. ($0.07).

     

    HardToLove
    9 Mar 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    More on MCP earnings report...

     

    (March 9, 2011) From MarketWatch
    Molycorp (MCP) shares rose 4.1% to $50.60 in heavy volume. Excluding one-time items, the Colorado-based rare earth metals mining company, said fourth-quarter earnings excluding one-time items were 3 cents a share. Revenue jumped to $21.7 million from $2.2 million last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimated a per-share loss of 7 cents.

     

    The company’s net loss narrowed to $7.9 million, or 10 cents a share, from $9.1 million, or 22 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
    9 Mar 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Meaningless, given that they need to embark upon a complete overhaul of the mothballed mine, the obsolete processing plant, and a gigantic building program which should increase the company's infrastructure 20-fold.

     

    Its not BAD news that they are losing less money than they were...

     

    Its just irrelevant.
    9 Mar 2011, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Hype, hype, hype! These CNBC idiots see greatness in a $4B company with a mere $27M in revenues? Too much on the "Come" line for me. Because the Come line is too far away.

     

    Still believe MCP will pull back. Good thing for those invested is that this is pulling up the sector. Bad thing is for those of us that want to add more REE stocks on the cheap.
    9 Mar 2011, 10:33 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Well, I was screened on the Moly call today. I was on from the very beginning. Got in the queue right away. And they never got to me. It can happen. But when I went back to Moly's conference calls and presentations I noticed they have never taken a private investor call and every question ever asked has put Moly in a favorable light. Amazing! They have a half billion dollar project loading with world changing technologies and no flow charts, diagrams, plant drawings, plant photos, or even slides. And yet no one has ever asked them an engineering question in their conference calls or presentations. In fact no one asks a tough question. Choreographed? At this point I say yes. So they do not explain Phoenix and they control any questions on the subject. Forgive me for doubting in a post-Madoff world. But at this point I consider Phoenix a Jacob's Ladder and nothing more.
    9 Mar 2011, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    OK I'll ditch the conspiracy element of this post. Maybe the analysts just don't know enough to ask any tough questions, but they should. I take back the choreographed comment.
    And Molycorp is not a scam yet. But they should tell us how Phoenix will work rather than just making promises and inflating their market cap
    13 Mar 2011, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Down down down Down Under...everything down

     

    ...buying opps coming
    ...so get yer guns, Buk and DOUBLEguns down!
    9 Mar 2011, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2216) | Send Message
     
    Hi Gades and Gadesses. I just wanted to show you a couple of things tonight. First of all is this stunning development out of Wisconsin:
    news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...;_ylt=AtxEQkO4MOZsQfYW...

     

    And the second is a chart which shows the bullish percentages in the S&P 500. It's message is pretty clear. At the very least, people should be out of this market now. With Europe lower last night, Asia down hard as we speak and futures pointing to an ugly open tomorrow, it's probably time to bail out. Just my humble (and some would call "goofy") opinion of course, but at least this is some concrete evidence to consider:
    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

     

    All the best :-)
    9 Mar 2011, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • lower98th
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
     
    And we thought it was Goddesses
    10 Mar 2011, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    Count me in the nervous nelly camp. Market today is all red and about the only thing green is the damn VIX.

     

    I am not jumping off the tracks just yet but it seems if you put your ear to the tracks an listen there is a train coming. Just not sure how far away it is and if it will be diverted by Benny Madoff Bernanke the conductor.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    You can be both!!!

     

    One of the Goddesses of the Gadesses.

     

    That even has a ring to it.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Taking profits on everything EXCEPT REE patch this morning...

     

    Including silver.

     

    NOT eliminating positions, just taking some of the profits off the table.
    10 Mar 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I like the news...don't like the charts. Thank you for this message tonight. I've been chewing on some things regarding my 401k and this trade account as well. Can't wait to hear feedback from others regarding your post.

     

    What say ye good people??
    9 Mar 2011, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    OK. Today's Molycorp Minerals MCP Does Not Explain Engineering Facebook page is ready for first viewing complete with Lynashead comments at:

     

    www.facebook.com/pages...
    10 Mar 2011, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Jeanny
    , contributor
    Comments (46) | Send Message
     
    Folks, I was reading some of the filings of MCP and if i'm not mistaken:
    a large portion of the money that the insiders sold (of that 13,500,000 shares on 2/16) essentially recycled back into investing in the preferred convertibles announced back in 1/24. It looks like the same group of directors and original investors, based on the timing and the filings. My interpretation is that they not only locked in their gains at $47.85/share, they diluted their insider holdings down roughly 25% (of a total of 53,149,000 insider shares), and now are in a preferred situation with that money. So that selling is not as bad as it looked, although bankers like JPM or MS would know that the retail investors would initially boohoo the sale and sell out. And a further speculation is that they wrote a LOT of calls against this, and made a ton up through earnings and the filings releases. So, if you don't believe in MCP, at least do yourselves a favor and not short it.
    10 Mar 2011, 05:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Agreed. My warnings have been tilted toward that very point. I too have my doubts about their ability to hit their time line goals (and every passing day makes it more likely they will not), but shorting these sharks is perilous.
    10 Mar 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Well, over on the ASX, it didn't take the few more days I thought it would take for pps to hook up with the 20 day SMA. One "Swell Foop" is all it took! LYC down 4.11% did the job very nicely.

     

    The S&P ASX was down 1.48% and all the markets are down.

     

    Looks like "A Bad Day at Black Rock" will occur here in the U.S. market too.

     

    The charts from yesterday had good news and bad news.

     

    The good news is that the bad news was not as bad as I thought it might have been.

     

    The bad news was that the good news was exactly that.

     

    We opened at $2.12 and closed at $2.11 and our range was $2.10-$2.12 on very low volume. Being we were in a down leg that "bounced" off a support near $2.08 provided by our gap of 2/28-3/1, I harbored faint hopes that we'd either start to show a little upward pressure or go on down to the Fibonacci 38.2% re-trace point ($2.04) or the recent $2.00 support or the low of 2/28 ($1.97 - top of a gap) and bounce strongly off one of those.

     

    I think any of those moves would have put an end to this down leg, for at least a while, and allow us to begin moving up.

     

    Instead, we end up with indecision with, I think, an increasing negative bias as the technical indicators continue mixed and, mostly, weakening.

     

    Stochastic continued to weaken, entering oversold territory, as did its average, of course. ADX and related, and RSI also weakened, But momentum showed an up tick (I may need to adjust the period - this seems to lag way too much), as did MFI and accumulation/distribut...

     

    Just experimented with momentum's period - makes a big difference - reduced period by 33% and it looks negative now, as I visually thought it should.

     

    If we follow the lead from OZ, we should see $2.02 here today. But with MFI ticking up (it's often a leading indicator - but when I shortened it's period 33%, it also shows negative) and the Fibonacci at $2.04, we might see some support there.

     

    We also have some other potential support in the area. The 20 day SMA is at 2.015 EOD yesterday, the 50 is $1.99, the lower Bollinger is $2.038 (likely needs a period adjustment too) and our longer-term trend line is @ $1.98. Putting all that together, we might see the $2 hold.

     

    But ...

     

    I suspect with the general tone of the markets that seems to be developing we'll get much greater selling pressure. I think we're likely to at least challenge the $2 support. It ought to be a fairly strong support as when it was acting as resistance it took four runs at it to get on by. But if the market tone extends into this sector, ...

     

    I wouldn't be surprised to see us penetrate to that $1.97 (top of 2/25-2/27 gap) and get support there instead. If we do see that, I also expect us to see it try to regain $2 again. It would be optimistic to expect it to recover above there today though. I think early next week would be the earliest it would start to show recovery again.

     

    All my positions are still positive here, so I'll probably just hold and ride it out. But, for anyone who's light on the stock, these next couple of days should represent a good add or entry point as I can't see us going much lower than ~$1.90 and I really don't think it will get that low.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/10
    Last...... 1.985
    $+/-..... -0.085
    Bid........ 1.985
    Offer..... 1.990
    Open.... 2.100
    High...... 2.110
    Low...... 1.985
    Vol 30.271MM

     

    I seem to have overlooked 3/1.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/28............. 3/2........... 3/3........... 3/4............ 3/7............. 3/8.......... 3/9
    Last...... 1.950......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200....... 2.100....... 2.090.... 2.070
    $+/-...... 0.045......... 0.110....... 0.070..... -0.090...... -0.100...... -0.010. -0.020
    Bid........ 1.945......... 2.200....... 2.270....... 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.060
    Offer.... 1.950.......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200........ 2.110....... 2.100... 2.080
    Open.... 1.945......... 2.070....... 2.260....... 2.310........ 2.200....... 2.120... 2.110
    High..... 2.010......... 2.230....... 2.300........ 2.330........ 2.220....... 2.190... 2.120
    Low...... 1.935......... 2.040....... 2.190........ 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.030
    Vol 31.394MM 65.020MM 61.656MM 36.141MM 30.832MM 33.415MM 25.879MM

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Hey MAYA! And all,

     

    When Maya posted his response to a recent assessment of likely GWMGF moves, I responded that we were looking at different periods.

     

    Time passes, the associative processor begins percolating in the background and, eventually, answers emerge.

     

    I realized something that I'm afraid has adversely affected others, as well as myself.

     

    I've been using my trading platform's default settings for periods and other variables that plot the values of things such as the Bollinger bands. Maya and I had significantly different values reported for GWMGF that day.

     

    I have realized that I'm trying to estimate short-term moves with settings that appear, now that I've been struck with a "clue bat", to be set for either intermediate or longer term moves.

     

    GIGO: Garbage In Garbage Out is an old computer saying.

     

    Since I was trying to estimate short-term moves, this means the data points I was using were inappropriate for the task. Garbage in!

     

    I now realize that this may have caused not only myself, but others, to make much less than optimal moves (how's that for "weasel words"?) that injured their positions.

     

    For this I can only offer my most sincere apologies. And an excuse? It's part of my leaning curve that may have also victimized others. But I'm not big on excuses, so we can all ignore that and just say screwed up.

     

    Again, apologies.

     

    Starting this morning I copied one of my charts so that I can play with values that are more oriented toward shorter time-frames. I will need to experiment with the values to achieve the right balance between being all frenetic all the time and "asleep at the switch". I realize that perfection is not possible, but as a goal it is still desirable since it leaves the constant striving for better results in place.

     

    I don't know how useful my assessments might be during this period, or even if I should try to share them. I now think the few times I've hit it right is because of the breadth of things I consider, some of which don't yet appear on the charts at the time.

     

    This doubt about the usefulness is compounded by the variety of folks here - some trading, some investing, some doing both.

     

    I would like for those who do charting to either PM me or post here the settings they use, if it's not too much trouble.

     

    Also, should I continue to post during my experimentation? I'm initially think setting my periods down about 1/3 and seeing how that works. But that might not be right for some or all that may consider what I post.

     

    So, if you've a mind to, let me know if you think I should continue posting during this period.

     

    Again, apologies to all.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I thoroughly enjoy reading your short term assessments and have learned quite a bit from them. Hoping you keep up with your work and sheparding insights. I'll jump in now and again if I see something I believe is a technical inflection point, and then hope I'm right.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Lynas did get a mention in today's WSJ article about MCP. Looks like Smith gets the credit for that.

     

    "We are definitely experiencing heavy demand in the marketplace," Mr. Smith said. He said Molycorp and peer Lynas Corp. will benefit from rising demand and China's reduced exports, which have created a supply shortage."
    10 Mar 2011, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    He damn well better because when MCP has to actually produce something in marketable quantities it will need the expertise LYSCF has gained by actually doing the work and producing high quality product in viable quantities.
    10 Mar 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Here's the article on MCP in Mineweb today:
    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    10 Mar 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): One more penny down, to $1.94, close the last gap (ignoring the 1 penny gap at $1.88/$1.89 from 2/24-2/25) in this leg up/down.

     

    That's a potential support point, reinforced by a Fibonacci 50% point of $1.93. Below that is the $1.90 area for potential support again.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    tonight as i watch the DOW crash to 180 points, a smirk can be seen on my face as my heart gets poisoned with greed for LYC =)

     

    In my four years of investing in this stock i wait for moments like these where a world event unrelated to my sector which happen 3 times a year to load up alot of shares. I am confident doing this as the rare basket price keeps going up. Its the ultimate trade where i made a load of cash doing this waiting for th crowd to really start panic and become greedy when others are fearful.

     

    I have been telling everyone this strategy for a long time i keep load of cash in the banks earning interest and i let the trade come to me. I never chase Lynas thinking i will miss out i just be calm like the Buddha and strike like the crouching tiger hidden dragon when the moment is right.
    10 Mar 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I also set aside a bunch of dry powder. But being of limited resources and lots of opportunities, I can't decide on more Lynas - I'm overweight already - or another of my targets, outside the REE sector, which is coming in range.

     

    Both will return nice gains, Lynas longer term and the other much shorter term. And I exited the "other" recently at a profit to employ exactly the strategy you described.

     

    Of course, the other one had already started coming to me, as I knew it would, and my two Lynas positions are both still positive.

     

    N.B. Lynas support at the $1.96 level, mentioned earlier, seems quite strong right now. *Presented* bid/ask counts 9:1 at $1.95/$1.96. Volume is alright so far today too, although it's on a down day. But it doesn't look to end up as a *huge* sell off so far. Most of the volume was in the early minutes, 195K in the first hour with a total so far of 825K now at 11:10 EST.

     

    I'm *guessing* we'll end up about 1.50MM, give or take, at EOD *unless* everybody gets really spooked and we plunge from here or get a realy large buying spree near the EOD.

     

    But it's not looking like that will happen right now, of course - we've entered the normal "quiet period".

     

    I think the EOD activity will give us a good clue. Right now I would think lots of folks are taking advantage of a "bottom fishing" opportunity and will wait as late in the day as possible to see if it goes lower. If it doesn't, I suspect they'll recognize this price level for the opportunity that it is and will start buying strongly later.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    HTL thanks for the 1.96 level technical analysis. I will take your analysis into mind when i decide when to load up on LYC. Depend on the severity of the fall/
    10 Mar 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    If we are leading for a change, you might be surprised by better strength than we expected.

     

    Good hunting this P.M.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Do you mind sharing your non-ree pick, HT? I am re-starting my 401k in a new account with more options and looking for good adds. Capstone will be one.
    10 Mar 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    That's the one. Others I'm just nosing around right now.

     

    But be aware that recommendations by many others would be a better risk as I'm both new at all this and I'm also a risk taker (life-long MC rider).

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    added to Lynas @ 1.98 this morning...appx. 17% addition
    10 Mar 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13221) | Send Message
     
    If you are not out already I think you are too late to get out now. Just suffer the downturn (fairly mild) and wait for the next ray of economic sunshine and inflation. Commodities are still the place to be.
    10 Mar 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Well spoken. We had a very similar downturn about a 2 weeks ago followed by some really nice gains and even a few new highs.
    10 Mar 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Do you feel GPL is a good buy at these levels?
    11 Mar 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Apparently there is still some concern in Malaysia about potential pollution from the Lynas LAMP. Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board has not yet granted an operation license, pending plans from Lynas regarding byproducts.

     

    www.google.com/hostedn...

     

    www.google.com/hostedn...

     

    I doubt that this will cause serious problems, but its worth keeping track of.
    10 Mar 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    Just added 200 shares to GPL @ $4.15
    10 Mar 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): SOmebody just "painted the tape". Bid/ask was $0.81/$0.816 and a few thousand shares magically went off @ $0.796.

     

    Don't be fooled. If somebody else is and it tanks, I say add.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    Saudias shooting protesters!!! Oil and metals up.
    10 Mar 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    DG: Yep, I added some of your Bakken picks.
    10 Mar 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    What, would you guys say are a few of the best Bakken picks right now?
    10 Mar 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    I am going to have to kick my broker in the a$$ he was supposed to be checking out OG's pick, dont have that info handy, but it looked really, really interesting along with the ones that I picked. I also liked Freya's Gasfrc so much so I bought 100 shares just to keep a really close eye on it. It is down a bunch right now.
    10 Mar 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Right now oil is getting killed. A good time to buy? If I hadn't bought any, the price would be skyrocketing. Oh, well, it'll be back w/in the near future. Oil worries from the Mideast & parts of Africa will make these shale plays increasingly attractive.

     

    I spent my money on KOG, NOG, VOG, OAS and BEXP.
    11 Mar 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I just take the easy way on the Bakken by reading Keith Schaefer's instablogs.
    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    12 Mar 2011, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    How about that. That insta of Keith's is a summary of all of his links... Its acting as a form of the Memory Alpha concept.
    12 Mar 2011, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Hot off Gareth Hatch's presses- March update to the TMR ree index:
    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    10 Mar 2011, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    OG....you have a Bakken pick?
    10 Mar 2011, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Bought LYSDY this morning at 19.8... sorry for the delay, I got caught up in ranting.
    10 Mar 2011, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I can't speak for all, but considering the markets, world events, ... a pretty good day for (GWMGF) and (LYSCF), (LYSDY).

     

    I say this because even with all that:

     

    - GWMGF:got as low as $0.7857 and as high as $0.859 (just exuberance at the open though - didn't hold even a minute), it closed at $0.836, for all intents and purposes right on our Fibonacci 50% price and on prior support/resistance of $0.83/$0.84 that occurs on several different days in the past; still above the rising 50 day SMA ($0.8236) and above the lower Bollinger ($0.8188); it spent most of the day around the $0.81/$0.82 level, exhibiting strength I really didn't expect.

     

    - Lynas: behaved even better with a high of $2.05 (but for only a minute at 09:32) and a low of $1.95 (made at 09:42) and closed at $1.99 on rising stronger volume; from the initial low, it started working its way back up and never came back to that low after 10:59; by 12:02 had achieved $1.99 and traded $1.97/$1.99 the rest of the day; on volume near what I expected (ended on 1.572.4MM shares traded) it closed above our trend line ($1.97/$1.98 depending on how good my line and eyes are), effectively at the 50 day SMA ($1.9976) and above the lower bollinger ($1.9683, but yesterday was $2.0278).

     

    Given what the market did today, I think both of these exhibited good strength.

     

    I've adjusted some of my technical indicators and so don't want to venture a prognosis of future action based on them yet. But I can say I feel decent about both of these based on the behavior today.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    Pinetree Capital Ltd. Announces Fiscal 2010 Financial Results
    - An 86% Increase In Net Asset Value
    March 10, 2011
    TORONTO, Ontario (March 10, 2011) – Pinetree Capital Ltd. (“Pinetree”) (TSX: PNP) today announces its audited consolidated financial results for the year ended December 31, 2010.

     

    Net asset value per share increased to $4.71 as at December 31, 2010 from $2.53 as at December 31, 2009, an 86% increase.

     

    For the year ended December 31, 2010, Pinetree had net income of $296 million, as compared to $157 million last year. The net income was primarily from net investment gains of $383 million in the year, comprised of $341 million in unrealized gains on investments and realized gains on dispositions of investments of $43 million. Earnings per share were $2.18, as compared to $1.19 per share in the year ended December 31, 2009.

     

    The composition of Pinetree’s investment portfolio (accounted for at fair value) by sector as at December 31, 2010, as compared to the prior year, is outlined in the following table:

     

    December 31, 2010 December 31, 2009
    Sector ($’000) % of Total ($’000) % of Total
    Resources:
    Precious Metals 316,667 39.9 158,027 43.1
    Base Metals 148,063 18.6 71,711 19.5
    Uranium and Coal 171,112 21.6 49,066 13.4
    Oil & Gas 72,263 9.1 34,404 9.4
    Potash, Lithium and Rare Earths 66,524 8.4 27,103 7.4
    Total Resources 774,629 97.6 340,311 92.8
    Technology/Other 19,235 2.4 26.413 7.2
    As at December 31, 2010, total investments at fair value was $794 million, as compared to $367 million as at December 31, 2009, while the total number of investments decreased to 428 from 429 as at December 31, 2009. Three hundred and ninety of the investments or 91.1% (December 31, 2009 – 383 or 89.3%) were in the resource sector, consistent with Pinetree’s primary investment strategy.

     

    During the three months ended December 31, 2010, Pinetree had unaudited net income of $229 million, as compared to $20 million for the same period last year. The net income was primarily from net investment gains of $292 million in the quarter, comprised of $265 million in unrealized gains on investments and realized gains on dispositions of investments of $27 million. Earnings per share were $1.68, as compared to $0.15 per share in the three months ended December 31, 2009.

     

    Sheldon Inwentash, Pinetree’s Chairman and CEO, stated, “2010 was a very strong year for Pinetree and the markets in which we invest, as the value of our investment portfolio more than doubled. We also expanded the portfolio in areas where we see opportunities for continued growth going forward. Our outlook for the resource sector remains positive.”

     

    About Pinetree

     

    Pinetree Capital Ltd. ("Pinetree") was incorporated under the laws of the Province of Ontario and its shares are publicly-traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) under the symbol “PNP”. Pinetree is a diversified investment and venture capital firm focused on the small cap market. Pinetree’s investments are primarily in the resources sector: Precious Metals, Uranium and Coal, Base Metals, Oil and Gas, and Potash, Lithium and Rare Earths. Pinetree’s investment approach is to develop a macro view of a sector, build a position consistent with the view by identifying micro-cap opportunities within that sector, and devise an exit strategy designed to maximize our relative return in light of changing fundamentals and opportunities and is recognized as a value added partner in the resource industry.

     

    Pinetree discloses an unaudited monthly net asset value per share within 15 days after a month-end. For the latest month-end net asset value per share and for more details about Pinetree and its investments, please visit our website at pinetreecapital.com

     

    Use of Non-GAAP Measures
    “Net asset value per share” is a non-GAAP measure defined as total assets less total liabilities divided by the total number of common shares of Pinetree outstanding.The term net asset value per share does not have any standardized meaning according to GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies.We believe that the measure provides information useful to our shareholders in understanding our performance, facilitates the comparison of the quarterly and year-end results of our ongoing operations and provides a meaningful measure to evaluate our business relative to that of our peers.

     

    Investor Relations:
    Sheldon Inwentash Richard Patricio
    Chairman & CEO Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs
    Pinetree Capital Ltd. Pinetree Capital Ltd.
    130 King Street West, Suite 2500 130 King Street West, Suite 250
    Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5X 1A9 Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5X 1A9
    Website: pinetreecapital.com Phone: 416-941-9600
    Email: ir@pinetreecapital.com
    Website: pinetreecapital.com
    ©Copyright 2011 Pinetree Capital Ltd.
    Home | Company | Investors | Investments | Legal Disclaimer | Contact Us
    10 Mar 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    LYSDY is showng as closing at 18.8
    10 Mar 2011, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    See my reply to Ace over on the QC.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Mar 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    (04:46 AM March 11, 2011) Lawmakers in KL to contest rare earth plant

     

    KUALA LUMPUR - As Australian mining giant Lynas Corp readies to fire up its rare earths refinery in Gebeng, near Kuantan, lawmakers in Kuala Lumpur and Australia are joining hands to halt its progress and prevent a potential environmental and health disaster.

     

    Kuantan MP Fuziah Salleh said on Wednesday that SHE is working together with her counterparts in Australia's Green Party to pressure their respective governments to look deeper into the environmental and health risks posed by the US$230 million project and set up safeguards before Lynas starts operations at the Kuantan facility.

     

    The opposition MP explained that SHE is lobbying the administration of Prime Minister Najib Razak to compel Lynas to take back its waste to Australia for disposal.

     

    One of the biggest worries, she said, was Lynas' waste management plans. "There have been no clear procedures how they are going to remove the radioactive by-products," Ms Fuziah said. "No EIA either," she added, referring to the environmental impact assessment that is required by law before a project is approved by the authorities.

     

    Opposition lawmaker Fuziah Salleh, who has lobbied against the Lynas plant since 2008 [apparently with no success since the plant is still being built], said Thursday there were fears that plant wastewater could seep into the waterbed, polluting the nearby river and sea and harming the fishing industry. She also questioned how the project would benefit Malaysia since Lynas was granted a 12-year tax break and hiring would be limited since the plant is not labour-intensive. tinyurl.com/4u3qdjd

     

    ------------------------
    Some counterpoints to MP Salleh's arguments.
    ------------------------
    Despite the potential hazards, the Malaysian government was eager for investment by Lynas, even offering a 12-year tax holiday. [Malaysian government means more then one disitent MP]

     

    If rare earth prices stay at current lofty levels, the refinery will generate $1.7 billion a year in exports starting late next year, equal to nearly 1 percent of the entire Malaysian economy. [as the plant grows these figures will climb even higher. So the government was willing to forgive taxes for 12 years to entice Lynas to build their plant in Malaysia.]

     

    Raja Dato Abdul Aziz bin Raja Adnan, the director general of the Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board, said his country approved the Lynas project only after an interagency review indicated the imported ore and subsequent waste would have low enough levels of radioactivity to be manageable and safe.

     

    The new Lynas refinery, with nearly two dozen interconnected buildings and 50 acres of floor space, will house the latest in pollution control equipment and radiation sensors.

     

    A signature feature will be 12 acres of interim storage pools that will be lined with dense plastic and sit atop nearly impermeable clay, to hold the slightly radioactive byproducts until they can be carted away. But carted to where? That is still an open question. [see below for the published answer to this question]

     

    Building the lined storage pools was one of the promises Lynas had made to win permission to put the refinery here, in an area already environmentally damaged by the chemical plants that line the narrow, muddy Balok River. tinyurl.com/4mj6pvy
    -------------
    Lynas plans to mix the radioactive part of the waste with lime. The aim is to dilute it to a thorium concentration of less than 0.05 percent -- the maximum permitted under international standards to allow the material to be disposed with few restrictions.

     

    Lynas wants to turn this mixture into large concrete shapes known as tetrapods that are used to build artificial reefs for fish and as sea walls to prevent beach erosion. tinyurl.com/4kk5tvv
    -------------

     

    My takeaway is that the vast majority of the Malaysian government wants the plant very badly. And that irrespective of MP Salleh's arguments, the plant will be built. If Malaysia backed off the agrement now, no country in the world would consider building in Malaysia. I see answers to many of MP Salleh's objections posted in radilly available media releases...

     

    Of course, like horses, the market can be easily spooked... the less you know about a subject, the easier it is to get spooked... Part of the role of the REE news concentrator is to bring key information to the investors... I hope you found this rambling comment to be of help...
    10 Mar 2011, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I agree User. Asking Lynas to be more careful with the waste disposal seems like the main change. Keep in mind thorium can also be incinerated unlike uranium and this waste is 1/300 the radioactivity of the Mitsubishi 1970's Balok Rivier mess in the past. The point is this problem seems manageable.
    One thing I notice is that Lynas' concrete shapes approach is a step down from the original ambitions for the thorium by product. This approach may not pass the political test. Perhaps Lynas will end up doing a similar thorium storage with NTU/NOURF like Great Western wants to do with Steenkampskral.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I'm really interested if the process detailed in that patent application Valley Boy posted a while back might not be the solution.

     

    Of course, I don't have the technical acumen to determine that, but I read the whole thing and the descriptions of what it accomplishes and how it accomplishes it seems to hold a lot of promise.

     

    I've e-mailed Lynas about it, but their mail system thought it was spam. So I've sent another asking how I can send them the link so they can use their expertise to see if it could be of use to them.

     

    I'll let y'all know if I hear anything. I'm not hopeful, not being a large shareholder.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I think the issue is clearly managable.. as Hawk pointed out, the concentration level is quite low... so further dilution with standard disposal procedures should do the job...

     

    I somehow missed VBs link... would you re-post that link HT?
    11 Mar 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    www.faqs.org/patents/a...
    11 Mar 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Included in Arafura's (ARAFF) new presentation:

     

    "Arafura is the only company with significant amounts of uncommitted Rare Earth Oxide products available to supply users worldwide."
    10 Mar 2011, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Arafura will have a good setup once it gets completed. But there is one question left in my mind: will there be enough water for its rare earths processing complex to be built at Whyalla?
    www.whyallanewsonline....
    www.sa.gov.au/subject/...
    12 Mar 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF),(LYSDY): Early on the ASX, Lynas seems to be making a comeback. At 23:52 EST, A$2.030, +A$0.045 on 34.424MM shares.

     

    PPS encountered 20 day SMA, briefly fell below and then bounced above it.

     

    In anticipation of action expected in the U.S. tomorrow, may I proclaim "YEE-HAW!"?

     

    And this is while the S&P ASX (XAO) is down 1.06% at 15:55 OZ time.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Hey GWM!

     

    Did you make out like a bandit? I saw it got as low as A$1.92.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    MY oh my i have to say i felt rather disappointed today. No chance of picking up any LYC sharess. Looks like investors just got smarter!
    11 Mar 2011, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Well, there's always other days.

     

    OT: with the earthquake in Japan, are you folks going to get hammered with a tsunami?

     

    I don't think you need another major disaster after all the flooding and rains.

     

    It was 8.9, so I expect any waves will be massive.

     

    Heard anything?

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    That will be primarily on Australia's east coast I presume? No affect on Mt. Weld?
    11 Mar 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    I think HT was more worried for the people of Darwin and the like. And Lynas holders might be wondering about the LAMP. But my understanding is that is all in the other direction so I assume all will be OK
    11 Mar 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Correctomundo! Heeeyyy! b b (two thumbs up - Thanks to "The Fonz").

     

    My concern was for the folks that have already suffered too much.

     

    Money is *always* secondary for me.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Do you guys still think ALKEF is a good buy at the 1.35-1/39 level (long-term)? This stock seems to have really altered trading ranges on the exchange moves. Even with the asx down again last night...it looked to be a stubborn beast.
    11 Mar 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Well, the S&P ASX down 1.18% and Lynas couldn't completely resist. It closed down a penny. It just penetrated the 20 day SMA (~A$2.01?), seems to have hit a day earlier than I thought it would.

     

    Let's hope that the tsunami off the Japan earthquake does not wreak more havoc - the Aussies have had enough for one year.

     

    Anyway, as TB has pointed out, the Lynas pps often responds to the 20 day SMA, so today's close may be the bottom of the down leg.

     

    Here in the U.S. I'll limit my comments because I'm in experimental mode on my technical indicators. But I do feel safe talking "high level".

     

    I expect we could see a $1.92/$1.93 low today, as that is where we have a Fibonacci 50% point, which is not affected by my experimental settings. Although I do consider yesterday's performance strong, considering all that was going on (remember, this is before the Japanese earthquake), we did close lower on higher volume.

     

    With our long-term trend line (also unaffected by settings) at ~$1.98, I expect it will at least be penetrated intra-day. With a normal intra-day range of 6 cents or so and a close of $1.99 yesterday, I think hitting the $1.93/$1.94 range is quite likely.

     

    I would like to see it recover and close at $1.98 or better, but there's nothing in the (experimental) technical indicators indicating a divergence from trend right now.

     

    It wouldn't surprise me to see this on lower volume as we are just below the 50 day SMA ($1.9976). So the trend line and 50 day combined might induce some uncertainty and folks might lay out a bit.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/10......... 3/11
    Last...... 1.985....... 1.975
    $+/-..... -0.085..... -0.010
    Bid........ 1.985........ 1.975
    Offer..... 1.990........ 1.980
    Open.... 2.100........ 1.930
    High...... 2.110........ 2.070
    Low...... 1.985......... 1.920
    Vol 30.271MM 41.751MM

     

    I seem to have overlooked 3/1.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/28............. 3/2........... 3/3........... 3/4............ 3/7............. 3/8.......... 3/9
    Last...... 1.950......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200....... 2.100....... 2.090.... 2.070
    $+/-...... 0.045......... 0.110....... 0.070..... -0.090...... -0.100...... -0.010. -0.020
    Bid........ 1.945......... 2.200....... 2.270....... 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.060
    Offer.... 1.950.......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200........ 2.110....... 2.100... 2.080
    Open.... 1.945......... 2.070....... 2.260....... 2.310........ 2.200....... 2.120... 2.110
    High..... 2.010......... 2.230....... 2.300........ 2.330........ 2.220....... 2.190... 2.120
    Low...... 1.935......... 2.040....... 2.190........ 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.030
    Vol 31.394MM 65.020MM 61.656MM 36.141MM 30.832MM 33.415MM 25.879M

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry guys, I was traveling yesterday, reporting in from Gulf Shores this morning...

     

    Note that Lynas has shown relative strength to the overall market, despite some astounding news this week. Its this sort of "stick to the course" ability that sets Lynas apart from the wannabes. GWM is looking very investible at these prices, to me...

     

    As for the other questions about investment concepts, particularly those not relating to things like REEs and uranium, look over the Quick Chats we 'Gades operate (#156 has several such) at seekingalpha.com/insta... .
    11 Mar 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Did they ever rebuild the FloriBama down there, TB?
    11 Mar 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't know, looks like they just sold out to huge condo developers and hotels. Hardly any private homes or small business ocean front that I can see. I'll ask...
    11 Mar 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    One thing to ease a few tensions this morning: I see a lot of small trades going off on mostly low volumes for most of these stocks. I tend to view this as "scared, small money". Don't get me wrong...mine is at least "nervous money" at this point. Our core, stronger holdings should come back nicely. Or...we could be nearing the end of the world and none of these pesky little financial considerations will matter. Although, we did see this same thing two weeks back....the world didn't end (because it isn't going to, btw) and a very nice bounce for our stocks followed.
    11 Mar 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone enlighten me as to what exactly is going on with QSURD/QSURF? My account shows name change to QSURF and they are dramatically down. I have re-read the press release from earlier in the week and am concerned about their "move" to an amex. Are they still moving to a larger, American exchange?
    11 Mar 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Their drop in share price is unrelated to the symbol change, far as I know. They are now well below what I have long considered an attractive valuation, but not shocking, given the overall market spasm and the MCP news (which always roils the REE pond).
    11 Mar 2011, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    It is already back in the green. I assume it is some routine change, but I've emailed IR recommending they put out a news release. (Who knows, they might even listen.) I believe company is still on track for AMEX listing, as shown by their recent SEC filing.
    11 Mar 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9614) | Send Message
     
    So its a buying opportunity.
    11 Mar 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Qsurf is trading OK, but the lack of pop this week in the face of going AMEX is a big contrast with AVL's debut in December. It is a sign that the rare earth hype is cooling. There is no longer a stock shortage like back in December. Also, the last month saw a big rise in the metal prices with little response from the stocks. Now it appears juniors will have to rely on accomplishments, milestones, and fundamentals to really rise. This is frequently a good time for technical traders as well. I do not do much technical analysis so I will continue to concentrate on only the most advanced stage companies. But a technical trade on a weak junior is just as much of a loser as a poor fundamental choice IMO.
    Another word of caution. Beta is being treated poorly by the current market. And the rare earth space is getting increased risk assessment and less hype (note UURAF post test results-no bottom yet). That means as a sector I think several juniors will fall in the coming months, and the best stories will rise. It's a stockpicker's space now, but the risk is much higher.
    11 Mar 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    That reminds me, Lynas is doing a set up right now on the charts for a reversal I think. I can't say it's time to hit it again yet, but it's morphing.

     

    The *very* early technical indicator is a divergence between current price action and RSI. Pps making lower high and low, but RSI remains flat. When momentum indicators diverge from price action, it often indicates a change is coming.

     

    Also, the pps just refuses to "tank" in spite of all the turmoil and all intra-day lows are being treated as buying opportunities driving the price back up, as it did yesterday and is apparently doing again today.

     

    Last, it's staying glued to the rising trend line, albeit on the bottom side today, on lower volume today, a strong affirmation of the early indicators saying a change is likely.

     

    If the RSI is not lying, we should shortly see some of the other indicators begin to curl to the upside.

     

    I've stapled my trigger finger to my slacks so I can't get the shots off too early, as I'm wont to do.

     

    The most hated word in my arsenal, although quite useful: *patience*.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I forgot: we have a gap *above* begging to be filled too - $2.01/$2.10.
    11 Mar 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Quest has announced it is applying for AMEX listing, but it isn't listed yet so comparison to Avalon doesn't work yet. At today's prices, times the respective fully diluted shares, Quest's market cap is $365 million and Avalon's is $710 million. On fundamentals there is no way that Avalon is worth two Quests. Once Quest is also on Amex I expect the spread to narrow considerably, with Quest being the one to increase in market cap.
    11 Mar 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Neither is fundamental enough to invest in IMO. AVL is crazy overvalued. They need a billion dollars to produce and they have not really started yet (final costs would be much higher and it will take much longer then they think). This project will not happen if rare earth prices normalize after LYC & Moly production. Best guess AVL will fall a great deal (near zero) and Quest should be flat for now. Only Canadian rare earth companies I like are Neo materials, Great Western, and Pacific Wildcat. Montero is a longshot and the rest I see very little in the numbers and not enough experience in the AVL team to produce with a HREE materials plant. Sorry.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    IMHO, I feel Quest and Avalon will be the juggernauts for the heavy rare earths. I see them as long term holds. I feel both their resources are valuable enough to justify the large investment required to take them to production.
    Besides GWM, who else will eventually supply the world and china of heavies when they run out? GWM has a fairly small resource in SA. Alkane? Everyone else will start producing after AVL QRM.

     

    Long: QSURF,AVL,LYSCF,TASXF,...

     

    11 Mar 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Alkane will be a solid HREE player. Their proximity to Lynas should not be underestimated.
    11 Mar 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chi, don't be sorry. If everyone wanted to buy Quest I wouldn't be able to afford it. I'll propose a friendly (no money involved other than our own portfolios) contest. At today's close in Canadian dollars Quest was $5.20 and Great Western was $0.83, for a ratio of 6.25 to one. We will compare ratios periodically. If you are right, the ratio will shrink. If I'm right, the ratio will increase.

     

    Keeping track in terms of ratios means that even the "loser" in our contest might still make money in the real world, depending on the absolute price movements.
    11 Mar 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    This is what makes a market and I do respect your differing view. I think the big HREE stock will be Northern Minerals (NTU/NOURF). And if it becomes a big producer and maybe a mine in South America or a private mine like Pea Ridge or a xenotime sands project produces, that could satisfy the HREE market. Add up the tons. It is a small market on a tonnage basis. And right now there are way too many HREE juniors IMO.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    That's the spirit ellwodo!
    Consider it a friendly no money contest. And ratios seems like a good way to do it. Stone carver and I have a quarter ending update coming up already. How about April 1 for us as well? I'll do the same with Quest and GW. Care to pick one more and I'll throw Pacific Wildcat in there?
    11 Mar 2011, 11:17 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, hawk. Northern Minerals is a great stock to own. Great prospects and great management. I have 35,000 shares at 0.47 and wish I had a lot more.
    12 Mar 2011, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Would like to get your opinion of Metamec, Chihawk...
    I'm looking to consolidate...some things must go.
    12 Mar 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The key to Metamec seems to be Zeus. I think Zeus is too low a TREO and the HREE percent is good but not great. I've been near this part of Quebec on vacation, it's beautiful. Honestly, I'd be pi$$ed if they tore the area up for such a deposit. But my personal views aside, I would not own Metamec. Just MO.
    12 Mar 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps Quest will obtain enough capital to develop its Strange Lake and Misery Lake rare earth projects on the northern Quebec Labrador border. And maybe the Quebec government will provide access to the mines with its Plan Nord. It is a speculation; we might get better information later.
    finance.yahoo.com/q/ks...
    www.mrnf.gouv.qc.ca/en...
    12 Mar 2011, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Sure. My second REE pick is Matamec (MTCEF).
    13 Mar 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    OK ellwodo.
    I got GW and PAW and you got Quest and Metamec. We'll check back first week in April and do it by quarters. I'm on vacation April 1 so I'll check it shortly after that. I you need my email I'm at:

     

    chihawk111@aol.com
    13 Mar 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Ooohh! Don't do that! You make yourself an easy spam target.

     

    A PM through the Seeking Alpha system is a safer way to send e-mail address stuff amongst ourselves.

     

    Just MHO,
    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2011, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • nlemberg
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    What about Japanese stopping production of cars - NO power .
    Is Ford the play on this earthquake ?
    This week is the 14 week cycle low week as i written before $SPX 1287 13.5 XPE ON $95 2011 EARNINGS ESTIMATE.
    Next week risk on !
    11 Mar 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Not a bad trade nlemberg.
    11 Mar 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): In many ways GWM is technically behaving like Lynas, albeit with a much uglier face on it to start with.

     

    Again today it has resisted early downward pressure to rise like a Phoenix from the ashes at the end of the day to be in the green ... 2 tenths of a penny. <*chuckle*>

     

    But, as with Lynas, it has now a divergence - accum/distr is showing the first early signs of increased buying pressure after being flat for 6 days. RSI, OBV, momentum have all started a curl up.

     

    An *early* add point here, now at $0.855, seems a reasonable risk since it has *again* finished at/above the $0.83/$0.84 level.

     

    Good volume appearing too, another plus.

     

    This is with my experimental settings, so be cautious.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): BTW, note the time of that post, about a half before close. At EOD, it closed at $0.85, a penny and change (oxymoron?) up on the day.

     

    And volume was above average.

     

    I tried to get 5K at $0.845, but only got 1,125. I'll take advantage of any early low Monday to round that buy up, if I can.

     

    Have a good weekend all!

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Added LYSCF to 401k @ 1.95 today. I have rolled this from another acct. which provided much fewer investment options and am seeking a good diversification of interests to add. You all have been so fundamentally important in speeding up my investing learning curve (really invaluable, and I much appreciate and enjoy). I would love any personal must-have picks from you guys to help me build this. Oil, silver, tech, all other.

     

    I have come to trust many of you and your investment accumen.
    I am grateful for any and all advice.

     

    HT: I finally tried to pick up Capstone today (a few weeks late) but just missed my trade target!
    11 Mar 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I'm waiting to add. A big run like this may go on, but often there is a throwback.

     

    Yesterday would have been good, the mid+ $1.5x range.

     

    Today's march was essentially straight up and had the widest intra-day range I can recall, 20 cents. Normal has been 6 cents or so. This is high volatility. Better to let it settle - don't chase it.

     

    You don't want to be playing short-term games in that environment unless you are quite adept at many skills - which is why I'm waiting before adding more.

     

    User got in good yesterday at $1.59 and I tried at $1.56, $1.58. It came to me several times but I was apparently in a very long line behind some HFT computers. Never executed and I will *not* chase.

     

    BTW, for general investing ideas I suggest, as others have, that you visit the QC, seekingalpha.com/insta...
    and click the little square box "Track new comments on this article".

     

    There are many more general comments and suggestions there than here.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, HT...absolutely perfect for what was on my mind.
    12 Mar 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    This is off topic, but regards energy storage which is very important as we move towards the "electron" era.
    Some of you may still follow Zenn motors (ZNNMF) (ZNN.V) and its relation to Eestor. Zenn has had some recent changes and just replaced 3 board members with 3 new ones. Eestor continues to be granted new patents, but otherwise remains in stealth mode.
    The market seems to like this, with a new uptrend. A lot has been said regarding Eestor/Zenn and I happen to be a believer. I think 2011 will be the year where Eestor / Zenn motors 'begins.'

     

    I've been following ZNNMF since 2009, and only mention it, because the "tea leaves" seem to be shifting to the positive. If your looking for a speculative investment in energy storage that may have disruptive tech, take a look.
    11 Mar 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5185) | Send Message
     
    They can replace 33 board members with 33 more, they still have no product.
    They're concentrating on the drive train. Yeah, after they couldn't sell fifteen thousand dollar golf carts that couldn't qualify for highway travel. I don't think you will find many fans of ZNN here, Jimp. Just because most of us think there are much more compelling stories with proven results than the zenn/eestory mystique. I don't presume to speak for the others, it's just that we've discussed zenn at great length. (please don't take it personally) my comments aren't intended to offend.
    11 Mar 2011, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (AVL), (MCP), (QSURD), (UURAF)

     

    "Why Other Junior Rare Earth Miners Pale Next to Molycorp"

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    I had to chuckle at this, although it does at least contain some real facts.

     

    But one of the best points was in the comments:

     

    "On the conference call, Luisa Moreno of Jacob Securities uncovered that the Molycorp conference call slide 15 supply demand graph and CEO Smith's pitch on supply vs. demand assumed ZERO production EVER by Lynas. Mr. Smith tried to squirm out of that by saying that Lynas was a greenfield operation, so no telling how long it would take them to get scale production going, but then disingenuously wishing them all the best. While Ms. Moreno didn't call Mr. Smith to the carpet for this, of course those supply demand graphs also do not account for Molycorp's planned doubling of production".

     

    Go get 'em Chihawk! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    11 Mar 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you know me too well my friend.
    I'm a lawyer by trade and someone once gave me a gavel that sits on my desk. When this came up while I was on the call I grabbed the gavel to throw it. I didn't throw it. But I sure wanted to.
    But just imagine if Lynas comes through on their promises and these Molyclowns end up delayed. I'm almost sure it will happen at this point. And when it does, I, the Copper Boys and every Lynashead out there is going to flood every board with the biggest all you can eat crowfest you've ever seen!
    11 Mar 2011, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    I hope you laugh at this as hard as my lawyer friends (one of whom is a judge now and I hope I never have to appear before him ;-)) did many years ago.

     

    I used to run my business in a building we own just off the couthouse square. Lawyers everywhere, of course.

     

    One week in late spring they emptied out the town. A week later one came back and walked in (many were also clients of mine) and I asked where everybody went.

     

    He replied that they all went to the N.C. Bar Association conference down in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

     

    I blurted out "Talk about your shark-infested waters"!

     

    I thought he'd never stop laughing.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    You know it man. We're all capable of some bad stuff. But lawyer to lawyer is the worst. Thank God for on line continuing education! When asked why I'm still solo, I tell people it's because I don't trust lawyers. It's true.
    12 Mar 2011, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    LoL! I've always distrusted "management". I was once described as "Hard to manage, but we don't want to lose you".

     

    Check back in about 10 minutes and I'll post another story, ... about management and myself.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Back in the day when large corporations had a policy of "caring for employees", the company used to have "vertical conferences" wherein the whole organization would get together for presentations, discussions, ... and open Q&A about plans, company policies, etc.

     

    I wore many hats for a 250 person group, I guess because of my aggressive and outgoing nature and had acquired a reputation for being "different". As with any large group, most folks sit quietly through meetings like this and walk away and bitch and moan in private. There's always a few, Ralph, Dennis, ... myself who get the "tough questions" out on the floor regardless of possible "career consequences".

     

    So this was going as usual when my 5th level (IIRC, just below a VP) said "Bill, why do you always have to ask such tough questions"?

     

    I don't know where it came from, but my "ol' associative processor" kicked in ...

     

    "Tom", said I, "do you know hat a totem pole is"?

     

    Tom looked quizzical and said "Yeah, why"?

     

    I said, "Think about it. When you're bottom man on the totem pole and look up all you can see is a$$holes above you".

     

    The joint absolutely rocked with laughter ... after a few seconds of silence.

     

    I walked out thinking that was it, I crossed the line this time, ...

     

    But it was all good as it turned out. I guess having the reputation before going in saved me.

     

    I'm old enough now that I may have finally shed some of the Arizona "cowboy attitude" as I don't seem to feel the need to say
    such things much anymore.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Good story HTL!
    I think I'm still at the shoot my mouth off stage unfortunately. But being in Texas I've learned from cowboys before (in business and while traveling) and I'm sure I'll get schooled again and again in the future.
    12 Mar 2011, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    Well, if my now very long fuse gets to its end, I revert to that mode quite quickly. But it's just much less fequent now.

     

    Shoot, if I ever stop learning, I'll be dead.

     

    I've always (well, when I got old enough to get outside myself) operated believing that everyone has something to teach me. And it's not always in the areas one would expect.

     

    And sometimes the learning experience is downright humiliating!

     

    It's amazing how adaptable us h00m0ns are though. Exposed to something often enough makes us less sensitive to it, often.

     

    Humiliation seems much less of a concern now, although it still is painful, of course.

     

    Have a good rest of the weekend if we don't "bump into each other".

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I know what you mean.
    Remember the old Monty Python "Spam! Spam! Spam!" skit. Some days are like "Crow! Crow! Crow!" for me. :-)
    12 Mar 2011, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.informationweek.co...

     

    The massive 8.9 earthquake that has caused widespread devastation in Japan is expected to cause worldwide shortages and severe price swings in some semiconductors manufactured in the island nation, according to some analysts.
    The electronics expected to be most affected by the 8.9 quake that struck Friday include semiconductor wafers used in making microprocessors, NAND flash used for storing music, video, and other content in handheld devices, and DRAM, which is the system memory in PCs. More than 40% of the world's NAND and 15% of the world's DRAM are made in Japan, according to market researcher Objective Analysis.

     

    My rare earth brother and sisters, pl ease have a read of the article i have posted. With the recent earthquake in Japan will this send rare earth prices up or down? Please with me your thoughts. My initial thought would be down since Japan is badly hurt less demand for rare earth supply because they have their own problems to worry about BUT on the other hand this will cause world wide shortages of consumer electronics.
    11 Mar 2011, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe it is just too early to judge the effects of this catastrophe.

     

    If anything, distruptions to manufacturing in Japan would be liable to displace REE consumption from companies (and a country) sitting on a mountain of REE stockpiles to those (South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc) with no stockpiles. This would be more likely to increase market pressures and pricing than the reverse, IF it occurs (I am not convinced that it will, the primary factories have extensive backup resources and emergency plans).
    11 Mar 2011, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I agree TB. Right now I just pray for them. I traveled to Japan in 2005. It was a real learning experience for my wife and I. Today, hearing Japanese translators with a cracking voice is very unusual for me. They normally are polite with a very stiff upper lip. The wave hit hardest in the agricultural north (Sendai) but south of Supporo. I know nothing about this area because its neither business or tourist heavy. So hopefully the national landmarks and economy will not be too hurt. I still fear the death numbers will go much higher. Everyone is packed together everywhere and there was almost no time to get inland.
    But I think there is reason to hope this will not damage much manufacturing. Japan is the main customer to Lynas and they have a major rebuild on their hands now (especially transportation). But, I think as long as the world avoids another global recession rare earths will be OK. I still think the Lynas' basket goes to $200 by time of production.
    11 Mar 2011, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    In just a very quick look, I suspect not much impact on the REEs unless television production drops.

     

    It's been a *long* time, but IIRC, very little REE is used in most semi's. Gallium-arsenide used to be the thing, along with silicon, of course. But it's been decades since I tried to keep up with anything about that stuff.

     

    Looking for how they are used, I found this link. It certainly doesn't qualify as in-depth research, but appears semi-conductors, generally, don't use much, if any, REE.

     

    www.dailyreckoning.com.../

     

    This PDF is more detailed, right in the first paragraph.

     

    minerals.usgs.gov/mine...

     

    So I don't see a big impact unless slowdown in economic activity affecting other industries occurs. And from what I've heard discussed, the re-building needed actually will increase economic activity.

     

    It's unfortunate, but I think events like this, similar to war, have a beneficial affect on GDP.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Mar 2011, 06:22 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The earthquake might drive up business for Dacha Strategic Metals' rare earth warehousing efforts in Singapore and Korea.
    12 Mar 2011, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Check out Jack Lifton's comment on one of my opinion posts!

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    12 Mar 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Kind of says it all OMG...
    12 Mar 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Great to get the reply omg!
    I was starting to think it was us versus the world, brother. Better print it up and keep it handy. That way if the guys in the white coats with the sedation needle try to take us away we'll have something to show them first.:-)
    12 Mar 2011, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the tip i will cut and paste it onto my desktop!
    12 Mar 2011, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    @ Chi, Omg, VB, H20 (May I call you that? ;-)), Buk, ...

     

    "I was starting to think it was us versus the world, brother"

     

    Indeed it is. Although it's been expressed before, I want to emphasize how appreciative I, and I'm sure all, are that you folks decided to hang out and chime in.

     

    The increased breadth and depth of knowledge, research capability and willingness to share have greatly added to my understanding, not only of the REE space, but of considerations that can apply many places.

     

    I think that starts to transform "us versus the world, brother" into

     

    "US versus the world, brother"

     

    We all get stronger, in aggregate.

     

    Thank you all!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Mar 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Happy to be involved, HT. A body would have a hard time finding a better group of cabrons on the whole of the internet.
    14 Mar 2011, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX -0.52%. With all going on, not surprising. Lynas also gets a hit of -4.3%.

     

    I won't even try to call today's U.S. action in Lynas with all going on. I am pleased that with my new settings, I seem to have been hitting the marks pretty well. I'll have to review my recent comments against recent action to confirm though.

     

    Very early bid/ask on level 2 display $1.99/$2.00, but we can't take that as an omen yet - way too early and the maneuvering has yet to begin.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/10......... 3/11........... 3/14
    Last...... 1.985....... 1.975......... 1.890
    $+/-..... -0.085..... -0.010....... -0.085
    Bid........ 1.985........ 1.975........ 1.890
    Offer..... 1.990........ 1.980........ 1.895
    Open.... 2.100........ 1.930......... 1.930
    High...... 2.110........ 2.070......... 1.945
    Low...... 1.985......... 1.920........ 1.840
    Vol 30.271MM 41.751MM 37.751MM

     

    I seem to have overlooked 3/1.

     

    U.S. A.M. 2/28............. 3/2........... 3/3........... 3/4............ 3/7............. 3/8.......... 3/9
    Last...... 1.950......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200....... 2.100....... 2.090.... 2.070
    $+/-...... 0.045......... 0.110....... 0.070..... -0.090...... -0.100...... -0.010. -0.020
    Bid........ 1.945......... 2.200....... 2.270....... 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.060
    Offer.... 1.950.......... 2.220....... 2.290....... 2.200........ 2.110....... 2.100... 2.080
    Open.... 1.945......... 2.070....... 2.260....... 2.310........ 2.200....... 2.120... 2.110
    High..... 2.010......... 2.230....... 2.300........ 2.330........ 2.220....... 2.190... 2.120
    Low...... 1.935......... 2.040....... 2.190........ 2.190........ 2.100....... 2.090... 2.030
    Vol 31.394MM 65.020MM 61.656MM 36.141MM 30.832MM 33.415MM 25.879M

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.lynascorp.com/page...

     

    Mount Weld Rare Earth up to $119 per kg.
    14 Mar 2011, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    The size of the moves seems to be, overall, getting larger. From $80.xx to $112.xx, then $113.xx than $1.19.

     

    This presents quite a scenario for future company valuation.

     

    OMG, did you take advantage of that low yesterday on the ASX?

     

    It's hard to imagine it can keep dropping with basket price going the way it is and Mt. Weld online in just a couple weeks.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I was going to enter today but i had a rule that i keep for myself which i stick by which is a certain volume size must be met before i enter.

     

    If you buy some more i wont fault you for it because its such good value. There is a good chance i will be buying more LYC depending on how long this irrational panic continues =)
    14 Mar 2011, 07:57 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19397) | Send Message
     
    That volume rule is a good one. Volume is "The Truth Teller". But I use it just the opposite. My bias right now is to see a down move on increasing volume and then see a low in volume indicating a turn approaching, if supported by other indicators.

     

    Right now in the U.S. we've got the low volume, but the indicators haven't turned yet. Accumulation/distribution (a momentum indicator) is still rising but I need to see CCI get deeper yet and stochastic to tick up out of oversold and cross its average. Near happening now - maybe two more days.

     

    Then I look to see volume move up a tad, but still be low.

     

    Right now we're bumping our head on $2 again and I want to see us get through that. We've had lower lows going on, another indicator that we're not yet where I want to be to add.

     

    It may explode up and I won't get to add at these prices. But I'm already overweight, as noted before, so I can't worry too much if I don't get more.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Mar 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    REE stocks in Oz were down. I'll bet oil/gas and coal will be up today. Glad I moved out of uranium on Friday.
    14 Mar 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Anyone else moving out of uranium?

     

    specifically Northern U, UCore
    14 Mar 2011, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking of letting the uranium related holdings ride while picking up some thorium.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    www.itheo.org/content/...
    14 Mar 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Nourthern Minerals NTU/NOURF is a good buy right now. They are as much Browns Range and John Galt as they are Gardiner.

     

    Ucore is done IMO. I was done off the drill results so adding another snake bite to this story hardly suggests holders are being fundamental. Sometimes we just have to cut our losses.
    My advice would be to roll your Ucore into Northern. Just MO.
    DYOR
    14 Mar 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Lynas 1st quarter...
    ...investmentinvestment

     

    www.foxbusiness.com/in.../
    14 Mar 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    H2O
    (SHAW) an engineering company heavily involved in the nuclear sector is down 12.8% in the pre market. I think that's a tell on the markets current sediment on nuclear investments.
    14 Mar 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Errr, probably better to call NOURF "Northern Minerals."
    14 Mar 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Good thinking Soldier!
    From today forward NTU/NOURF will only be referred to as Northern Minerals ...and...
    UCore/UURAF will be referred to as U.S. Metals
    14 Mar 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    So, how might the earthquake affect Sojitz and Japan's near-term rare-earth demand?
    14 Mar 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Good Q i was pondering just that myself
    14 Mar 2011, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Production capacity will be down in Japan...Sony is down.. This will reduce their use of rare earths... I suspect the general market will sell rare earths on this....
    14 Mar 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    User,
    I agree that current production will take a short term hit. This could be a good thing for those yet to produce. This should avoid any chance of demand destruction from higher prices. And if it is a short term situation, the demand could be pent up for Lynas later in the year. In any case all of Lynas' production will be sold into long term contracts at great prices right now.
    14 Mar 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Right Hawk... the move down is a reflex sell... the actual market valuation of Lynas is based on its business fundamentals (those long term contracts) and that has not changed.... I will be watching carefully for a bottom on this reflex sell.
    14 Mar 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Couple of things...

     

    1- Lynas seems to be getting more than it's world crisis share this morning relative to ASX close...wonder if it is related to misunderstanding of net loss reporting compared to last week Moly's and/or my Sojitz thinking?

     

    2- Any stock remotely related to uranium getting heavy share of decline relative to others....I am considering a short-term move out of NOURF and/or UURAF. Anyone else?

     

    3- anyone eyeing some grand opportunities today?

     

    4- We need a new concentrator por favor
    14 Mar 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New conentrator at:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    14 Mar 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    U.S. Metals (UCore) seems to be holding up much better than other uranium related peers. I wonder what their share price would be today without those REs?
    14 Mar 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
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