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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 23, 2011 143 comments
    Mar 23, 2011 9:42 AM | about stocks: GWMGF, LYSCF, QSURF

    This was a draft I intended to include in the Concentrator, and after reading some of the recent articles appearing on SA, I decided this needed to be here in this latest Insta.

    This is the link to one of Jack Lifton's articles about the REE sector, specifically looking at China:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/247159-the-chinese-yuan-rare-earths-and-the-selection-of-critical-mining-projects

    Its a really long article, but I feel there are some important bits that follow the history lesson, so I'm going to excerpt a few of the choicer paragraphs here and add some personal comments.  I REALLY encourage everyone to read Jack's entire article!

    [quote] At the moment. China is the dominant player in the rare-earth space, which is where the operation of Western free-market capitalism, always seeking the lowest price, placed China. [quote]

    Actually, this is where China placed China.  China chose to undercut all other producers, regardless of environmental degradation, or even the cost in human lives.  It would appear that they are very belatedly seeking to rectify these mistakes, but only after achieving the primary goal, which was to achieve a functional monopoly.  And the plan has worked to a glorious extent, this is one of the primary reasons why China now manufactures so many of the things based upon technology utilizing REEs.  This is no accident...  Granted, this should have been impossible had their economic and political adversaries in the West (including the United States of course) had a clue and taken steps to maintain strategic positions in the key markets, technology and materials, but its important (for the purpose of understanding what, in a courtroom drama, would be something that went to the crucial "motive" driving the policy) to differentiate between the picture of China reacting mindlessly to a laissez faire capitalist environment and the far more likely idea that little has happened in this case that was unplanned or unforeseen.

    [quote] This cannot and will not change for two to three years, the least time it will take, if everything goes according to plan, for new or restarted production and refining in significant quantities of rare earths produced outside of China, refined outside of China, and incorporated in end-use products outside of China to come to the world market. [quote[

    This is true, I really do agree with his thinking here.  Of course, smaller quantities from startups like Lynas - and "restartups" like MCP - not to mention the capabilities of Great Western (which already has the final 2/3 of the vertical structure in operation and working, plus their own "restartup" at Steenkampkraal) will probably be making their presence known this year and the next.

    [quote] So what has this to do with the value of the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan?

    If China continues to hold the price of the yuan where it is against the U.S. dollar, then the only pressure to produce rare earths outside of China will be for strategic advantage to ensure security of supply, to maintain both civilian industry and military uses free of Chinese influence and control. [quote]

    This might not be the only reason, should the dollar continue to depreciate against the world's currencies (other than the yuan, of course).  Assuming the dollar as a static reference point simplifies the equation, but ignores an important source of pressure upon China to depart the peg.  There are any number of scenarios that can include a depreciating dollar that will ultimately drive China to abandon the peg.

    Jack's comments about the strategic environment are, indeed, absolutely true and logical - and they have been for decades.  This whole topic is a study in how long our national leadership has been literally asleep at the switch.

    [quote]  China today controls the rare-earth supply chain, because its price structure has moved that entire supply chain to China up to the point where high-purity metals and alloys are delivered to end users. Even there, at the point of end-use manufacturing, China is today the low-cost producer and so today, China is not only the monopoly producer of the rare earths, it is the dominant end-user of rare earths in the manufacturing of finished goods.

    At least half or more of these rare-earth-containing finished goods are made in China for the export market. Therefore, it is in China’s economic interest to prevent the export of rare earths as raw materials. This has been the exact direction of Chinese export controls on rare earths since the beginning of this century. [quote]

    These paragraphs should be tattoed on the foreheads of every "...rare earths aren't really rare..." pundit in the MSM.

    [quote] If you believe, as the Chinese do, that the only remaining threat to their total control of the rare-earth supply chain is the Japanese rare-earth end-use products industry (such as batteries, permanent magnets and lasers), then you will put pressure on Japan to move the last of the world’s non-Chinese, high-value-added sectors of rare-earth-based product manufacturing to China, or give the Japanese a reason to allow Chinese manufacturing competitors to compete in Japan (which today Japan does not do, in the case of magnets).

    Either of these moves would create jobs in China, which is always the goal of the Chinese economy, as it is the goal of the Japanese economy, and as it should be the goal of the U.S. economy.

    The point of all of this is that it is China who will benefit most from price increases, for the rare earths as fabricated forms for industrial manufacturing end-use.  [quote]

    Absolutely.  Notice the recent large increases in Chinese export tarrifs/taxes (which received hardly any notice in the MSM, vs the outrageous spasms from the brief suspension in exports of course).

    [quote] Chinese analysts predict that by 2015, China will produce just two-thirds of the world’s supply of new rare earths. Chinese analysts assume that Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF), Molycorp (MCP), and perhaps, Toyota (NYSE:TM) in Vietnam, will produce the remaining third. [quote]

    Actually, anyone who disbelieves this should realize that these numbers are probably indicative of several non-obvious factors.  I believe they also reflect the marked reduction in REE production which has already occurred in China with the suspension of operations at the multitude of outlaw REE mines, as well as the curtailing of operations where changes are being made to curtail environmental violations and begin remediation of the ecological damage.  They almost certainly include set-asides for China's own REE stockpiles which are planned at several levels in the production process.  And there is the real possibility that by then, China will have worked through some of their easier-to-reach deposits and will be seeing lower production levels in general...  So even if the new western producers in 2015 DO manage to hit production of 1/3 of the world's REE production, it would NOT be safe to assume that China's production will equal what it was a few years ago, or even 2/3 of it!

    [quote] The Chinese analyst community is silent about the overall percentage of the total value-add rare-earth supply chain that this one-third will represent. [quote]

    Yep.  And I don't blame them, they know better than we do what their problems are, and how much of the world's supply was going "out the back door" via black market smugglers.

    [quote] The real question is how much of the higher costs of rare earths can be absorbed by the Chinese supply chain, before increases in cost for value-add rise, to where a competitive supply chain can be economic in a foreign (to China) country other than Japan.[quote]

    I would not anticipate that the Chinese operations will absorb any extra/new costs, but on the contrary will do what companies usually do - pass them along to their customers.  WIth pricing power guaranteed for the foreseeable future by China's control over the huge bulk of REE produciton, China will increase prices steadily until something stops the process.  As has been seen throughout history when a monopoly achieves control without some sort of superior constraint (hard to do short of war when talking about nation states), prices rise precipitously, and stay there until some external event breaks the monopoly.  Even in the rosy projections from the Chinese analysts for 2015 when 1/3 of the world's REE mining takes place outside China, they will retain considerable pricing power and it is unlikely that the western mines will much motivation to appreciably decrease prices unless China cooperates in the process.  Lynas is estimating some quite low production costs for their basket of REEs ($7 or so against a current basket price of about $80).  Though China could probably undercut them for a few years if they wanted to just go back to the old ways of pillaging their shrinking reserves of REEs, this is hardly likely given the situation.

    If anyone needs an analogy, oil prices today have NOTHING like the centralized monopoly power seen with REEs and China, but Saudi Arabia is a partial case.  In particular notice that the Saudis are THE low cost producers, with some of their oil production coming at amazingly low prices (about $3 per bbl, as I recall).  Even so, they sell those barrels at the world price, even though they could handily undercut those prices and still make a ton of money.

    China will do the same with their REEs, and rightly so (says this LIbertarian capitalist), and its very likely that even though they continue to be the low cost miners, they will elect to continue charging whatever the freight will bear, including after the party expands to include smaller higher cost competitors from around the planet.

    [quote] Note that as rare-earth prices go up in China, they will also go up in Japan and that Japanese labor and overhead is vastly greater than that of China today. The gap will close, if it closes, only slowly even at Chinese rates of growth of costs. Those who think they will operate in the U.S. to add value to rare earths mined and refined in the U.S. need to demonstrate that their supply chain total costs are below those of foreign competitors. Historically, it is the very fact that this has not been so that has driven the rare-earth supply chain to Japan and China in the first place. [quote]

    True, but Jack of course Japan has not been a low labor cost country for quite a while (several decades at least), and China is ceasing to be one even more rapidly.  Supply chains include finished goods, of course, and that is an interesting conversation, particularly as a matter of national strategic policy, but from an investing point of view the bulk of what we are looking at involves mining, with a secondary part revolving around processing the ore to achieve concentrates.  Much of the profit lies there, and that is a place where many sources around the globe can effectively compete.  From an investor's point of view, choosing what to do with the profits extracted from mining investments is another topic entirely.

    Refining the actual metal is a secondary matter, something which wise folks in Lynas have located in a nation with lower labor costs, tax shelters, and business-friendly conditions...

    Beyond that point one enters the hugely branching tree where the metals are actually used to make the multitude of products needed for 21st century technology...

    And that is another very interesting debate!

    Jack next talks about the currecy wars and the debate as to what will happen if China increases the value of the yuan/renminbi...

    All pretty straightforward, if they increase the exchange rate, Chinese commodities and goods get more expensive measured in dollars.  This funnels directly into a fascinating political and macro economic discussion, but...

    Thanks to Jack for all this hard work, its quite a chore he's undertaken, to bring us all some insight into his thinking.

     

    Stocks: GWMGF, LYSCF, QSURF
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Comments (143)
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  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your analysis and bringing Mr. Liftons most important points to light.
    23 Mar 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Here's the inside scoop on Molycorp's Mountain Pass Mining District from officialdom.
    pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/...
    23 Mar 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    That was a really cruel post, VB...

     

    I need to stay AWAKE in the daytime. But I may take it to bed tonight just in case I get insomnia!! I've re-titled it "A Few Things You Might Like to Know About REEs and So, So, So Much More..."
    :>)
    23 Mar 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I won't re-read all that stuff (it was part of the DD I did when I first bought heavy into MCP stock), but there are some tantalyzing hints that we can expect a new explorations project at Mountain Pass to reveal new REE deposits.

     

    This is also true at Lynas' Mount Weld site.

     

    ZZZZZ....
    23 Mar 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Scrutinizing government reports is often an droll endeavor.
    23 Mar 2011, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Strange day in the REE sector...

     

    Pele Mountain cranked off a 20% run, but from a very low level...

     

    Great Western dropped 1.5% on no news...

     

    Northern Minerals (nee Uranium, kiss-of-death alert) went down 6.75%, not that it matters to me anymore, I bailed a while back, though I still have 1000 shares in the sock drawer, for the really long term when it might still payoff...

     

    UCore managed to go sideways, ending up .64%...

     

    MTCEF sank another 2.54%, still stuck in the doldrums...

     

    Lynas went nowhere, ended flat for the day.

     

    Pinetree showed some strength, up 6.60%...

     

    Overall my REE portfolio eked out a tiny gain, almost totally due to Pele Mountain (though that's a bittersweet sort of outcome, given that I had loaded up on Pele at $.40, just before the earthquake, and it has yet to regain that level).

     

    MCP is still producing megatons of hot air (vs the promised megatons of REE magnets), but still ended the day down 1.65%, trading in the $51's.
    23 Mar 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Think it's because of dollar up? Knock-on from Japan and one of the automakers notifying employees to prepare for some downtime?

     

    HardToLove
    23 Mar 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maybe. Miscalculation, if that's behind it. Demand will not flinch, there are too many eager buyers waiting in the wings.

     

    Just had a thought...

     

    Need to review (DCHAF.PK). I wonder if their chart spiked upward just recently...
    23 Mar 2011, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (DCHAF.PK)....

     

    Yep. Spiked pretty strongly.

     

    This scary event was good for the stock price of the REE sector's primary physical metal speculator.

     

    Logical and predictable, and not surprising.
    23 Mar 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    We'll see about NOURF.
    23 Mar 2011, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    So what do you think, TB:
    Is DCHAF to rees what Silver Wheaton is to silver?

     

    And did anyone but me buy Impact Silver? It's a high flyer.
    23 Mar 2011, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I owned Dacha briefly, and after studying the sector intensively, I concluded that they were about 3 years ahead of the rest of the world, barring an earth shattering event...

     

    Which of course just happened.

     

    Even so, their share price is STILL below where I sold out back then.

     

    I think we need to see what happens as alternative sources like Lynas, GWM and MCP come on stream before we will be able to gauge Dacha's success. They are operating in a semi-vacuum right now. nibbling around the edges...

     

    As for Impact Silver, I DID look at it, long and hand, but never pulled the trigger. I keep adding to AG, GPL, PNPFF and SNDXF, and of course I have a long term core of SLW, though not as much as I once held.

     

    But I missed the boat on Impact, through no fault of yours, you gave us a beautiful headsup.
    23 Mar 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9658) | Send Message
     
    Just traded my GPL for Impact. Not interested in the dillution HTL pointed out. It was down 5% today.
    24 Mar 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. I'm seeing a correlation between the percentage of foreign investment in Brazilian stocks and the choice between debt financing and dilution. Not exactly a welcome mat situation.
    24 Mar 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX +1% and Lynas +1.456% with anemic volume, again. It's above the 20 day SMA (just under A$2.02?) which is rising. PPS looks to be near a resistance from early January, so that might explain the low volume as uncertainty about the next move causes investors to wait and see what happens.

     

    A currency conversion would put the U.S. equivalent price at $2.1236 @ 05:59 this A.M. Yesterday's equivalent was $2.0827 and although we opened higher, we traded a range of only 4 cents and closed at $2.08. This is the frist time it appears that there might be a strong correlation.

     

    In line with my break from full-on TA, I'll just mention a couple things about our U.S. chart.

     

    Support by a tentative rising channel at $0.666... per day would indicate that our range today s/b ~$2.12-$2.21, but I must emphasize that this is a *very* tentative channel yet.

     

    Our longer-term trend support line has held two consecutive days and today's level is $2.08. Adding in the resistance seen yesterday at the old gap resistance at $2.08 and the reduced volume, I think we'll see a reduced range again today with a close around $2.08 again, below the tentative trend support. Our low should not be any worse than $2.04 or so and a high around $2.10 at best. Note the "at worst" and "at best". If it does make that range, that would be a "normal" spread.

     

    I suspect we're in "wait mode" to see if Mt. Weld really does start up next week.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/18...... 3/21...... 3/22...... 3/23........ 3/24
    Last...... 1.920.... 1.935.... 2.000... 2.060...... 2.090
    $+/-...... 0.025.... 0.015.... 0.065... 0.060..... 0.030
    Bid........ 1.915..... 1.935.... 1.995.... 2.050..... 2.080
    Offer..... 1.940..... 1.940.... 2.010... 2.070..... 2.100
    Open.... 1.940..... 1.950.... 2.000... 2.100..... 2.090
    High..... 2.010.... .1.970.... 2.030.... 2.150..... 2.110
    Low...... 1.920.... 1.930..... 1.975.... 2.040.... 2.070
    Vol. 62.858M 26.737M 30.665M 38.741M 24.094M

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/10....... 3/11......... 3/14.......... 3/15........ 3/16........ 3/17
    Last...... 1.985..... 1.975....... 1.890........ 1.755...... 1.885...... 1.895
    $+/-..... -0.085... -0.010..... -0.085...... -0.135....... 0.130...... 0.010
    Bid........ 1.985...... 1.975...... 1.890........ 1.750...... 1.880...... 1.890
    Offer..... 1.990...... 1.980...... 1.895........ 1.765....... 1.890...... 1.900
    Open.... 2.100..... 1.930....... 1.930....... 1.870....... 1.680...... 1.835
    High...... 2.110..... 2.070....... 1.945........ 1.950....... 1.905...... 1.895
    Low...... 1.985....... 1.920...... 1.840........ 1.715....... 1.675...... 1.780
    Vol. 30.271M 41.751M 37.751M.. 49.797M. 52.946M. 47.634M

     

    HardToLove
    24 Mar 2011, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Well today's call combined with today's action will teach me to shut my yap if I'm not doing TA. I was so-so *with* TA, but two times that I strayed I absolutely sucked! Of course, today I was trying to use ASX as an indicator. Based on yesterday's and this morning ASX results vs. U..S results, it looks like the U.S. might be the leading indicator right now (I know, I know - weak, weak, weak excuse).

     

    Conceding my weakness to my strength, all the technical indicators are still northbound as is volume. They are also much nearer the levels seen when I was questioning whether the stochastic might float for us, rather than indicating a reversal might be near.

     

    We closed another gap today, next gap-related resistance s/b $2.19 (we hit it already) to $2.21. Current action is indicating indecision, so pause can be expected.

     

    Bid/ask $2.15/$.17 with *presented* heavy buy imbalance right now. But most trades going either mid-point or @ bid right now. I suspect we may end with a doji - indicating a change coming but not direction.

     

    The Q is: what's the EOD action going to look like. In the past we've seen both push up and down during that time.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Mar 2011, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    China to tax rare-earths from April 1: report

     

    Now we finally start to get some detail about what we've been expecting. I'll be watching the Mt. Weld basket price to see if the effects flow through as we expect.

     

    "... 60 yuan ($9.1) per ton of light rare-earth minerals, and 30 yuan per ton of medium- and heavy-rare earth minerals"

     

    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    HardToLove
    24 Mar 2011, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Export taxes on "gray area" REE metal components which are intended to bypass most of the export restrictions (the buyer presumably just re-refines them for the REE content) is a key area to watch. China raised these export tarrifs in a big way a few months back, and it looks like they will continue to raise taxes (presumably to maintain the pressure to move those manufacturing technologies to China). We can also expect changes to the 2nd tranch of export quotas to compensate for any "leakage" from this sort of thing.
    24 Mar 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9658) | Send Message
     
    Time to raise export tarrifs on food to china.

     

    The whole world should join in.
    24 Mar 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Here's why GPL fell on this glorious day for silver:

     

    NEWS RELEASE Mar 24, 2011

     

    GREAT PANTHER SILVER ANNOUNCES $21 MILLION BOUGHT DEAL FINANCING

     

    NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

     

    GREAT PANTHER SILVER LIMITED (TSX: GPR; NYSE Amex: GPL; "Great Panther"; the "Company") has entered into a bought deal financing with a syndicate of underwriters led by Salman Partners Inc and including CIBC World Markets Inc, Stonecap Securities Inc, Dundee Securities Ltd, and Stifel Nicolaus Weisel Canada Inc.

     

    The Company intends to issue 5,000,000 common shares at a price of $4.20 per common share ("Offering Price") for gross proceeds to Great Panther of $21 million (the "Offering"). The Offering is expected to close on or about April 12, 2011, and is subject to regulatory approval.

     

    The Company has granted the underwriters an overallotment option exercisable for a period of 30 days following the closing of the Offering, to purchase up to an additional 15% of the number of common shares issued pursuant to the Offering at the Offering Price. The common shares will be offered in all provinces of Canada, excluding Quebec, via a short-form prospectus and into the United States on a private placement basis.

     

    The use of proceeds from the Offering will be further described in the final short form prospectus.

     

    Closing of the offering is subject to certain conditions, including but not limited to, receipt of all necessary securities regulatory approvals, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the NYSE Amex.

     

    This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor may any sale of the securities described herein in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.

     

    The securities described herein have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent an exemption from registration.

     

    For further information please visit the Company's website at greatpanther.com, contact B&D Capital at telephone 604 685 6465, fax 604 899 4303 or e-mail info@greatpanther.com.

     

    ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

     

    "Robert A. Archer"

     

    Robert A. Archer
    President & CEO

     

    This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of the Securities Act (Ontario) (together, "forward-looking statements"). Such forward-looking statements may include but are not limited to the Company's plans for production at its Guanajuato and Topia Mines in Mexico, exploring its other properties in Mexico, the overall economic potential of its properties, the availability of adequate financing and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements to be materially different. Such factors include, among others, risks and uncertainties relating to potential political risks involving the Company's operations in a foreign jurisdiction, uncertainty of production and cost estimates and the potential for unexpected costs and expenses, physical risks inherent in mining operations, currency fluctuations, fluctuations in the price of silver, gold and base metals, completion of economic evaluations, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, the inability or failure to obtain adequate financing on a timely basis, and other risks and uncertainties, including those described in the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2010 and reports on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at sec.gov and Material Change Reports filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and available at sedar.com.
    24 Mar 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9658) | Send Message
     
    OG, Sold GPL and move to impact silver.
    24 Mar 2011, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    that must be why it went down at the end of the day lol.
    24 Mar 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    GPL is up a hair today. Did you buy back in?

     

    Did you see what happened to NOG yesterday? Helped me average down. Can't remember if that's a Bakken stock you own.
    25 Mar 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9658) | Send Message
     
    did not buy back in. I own KOG as a bakken oil play along with BEXP and GEOI.
    28 Mar 2011, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Just had 317.4K go off in 4 minutes at $0.91, 38.4% of total volume so far.

     

    As mentioned a few days back, was looking like a run up had gotten underway. All indicators northbound or flat off a northward bias and this volume added makes it look real. But if that volume was a one-time, we could lose momentum.

     

    Stochastic is in overbought and has flattened. Resistance @ ~$0.93/~$0.95 and we need to push on through tomorrow to have some assurance that the momentum up is still underway.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Mar 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Pandemonium
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
     
    Been lurking for a few weeks now, enjoying the detailed analysis and information, for which big thanks.

     

    While I'm not shy of risk (I mostly dabble in small cap Biotechs), I find this sector perhaps even riskier. I've got my eyes on Great Western and Lynas, but haven't pulled the trigger yet (unlike Impact Silver, stock mentioned by OG). With Lynas' impending production start, I guess I finally will have to jump in or miss the boat.
    24 Mar 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Matamec Intersects 0.73% TREO (40% HREO+Y2O3) Over 18.8 Metres on its Kipawa HREO-Y-Zr Deposit

     

    Opinions?

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...
    24 Mar 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Matamec continues to be an "a la carte" menu item for a potential acquirer looking for their unique assets.

     

    .73% TREO is low grade ore, UNLESS one is specifically trying to fill a need for the specific elements present. The relatively shallow depth might be good news, assuming that an open pit would be cheaper to operate than hard rock tunneling.
    24 Mar 2011, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Rob, BONL declared another six cent dividend. I'd bet anything that's why it popped. Watch it drop after the divi --4/15/11!
    finance.yahoo.com/news...

     

    I might be in the wrong place for this comment. pardon, where am I? I need a compass...
    24 Mar 2011, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Oy, Gee: Greetings. Regardless of venue thanks for the intel. I haven't heard from them regarding reinvestment so I guess I should write them again.
    28 Mar 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13383) | Send Message
     
    Sadly, we are a bit late on GPL news. It's not really worth selling now and earnings should still hit $0.25 this year. Even so, GPL and other silver plays should still have fine prospects. Issuing shares at $4.20 is safer but dissapoints the gamblers.
    25 Mar 2011, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Following is an article from Asian Wall Street Journal as published on 23rd March 2011. The original article was in Chinese. This is an auto-translated version.

     

    2011年 03月 23日 09:00

     

    Rare-Earth Metals Add Heat Despite Quake

     

    Prices for rare-earth metals continue to soar despite the prospect of short-term market disruption from the disasters in Japan, the No. 1 global importer.

     

    China's exports of rare earths in the first two months of 2011 came to 7,084 metric tons, according to data published Tuesday by Hong Kong-based Economic Information & Agency, which publishes statistics it gets from China's General Administration of Customs. That is up just 0.3% from the first two months of 2010 but about half of what Beijing said would be permitted for sale overseas in the first six months of 2011. And at an average price of $44,361 a ton, the price was almost double last year's average of $23,603 and many times the price paid in the first two months of 2010. And the average price for eight rare-earth metals tracked by Australia's Lynas Corp. was holding Monday at 91% above the year-end level.

     

    The numbers from China underscore how Beijing's policy to tighten control of this strategic industry continues to fuel a rally in a market for rare earths, a collective name for 17 minerals used in technology from mobile phones to military equipment. China controls more than 95% of the global production, and constrained supplies have prompted a rush into rare-earth mining globally over the past year.

     

    But events in Japan have become another major focus for the rare-earth industry. The elements are used in a range of products turned out by the world's No. 3 economy─including cars, which have cerium in their glass, lanthanum in their batteries and neodymium in their electronics. Sustained factory closures in Japan could pinch demand from the country, whose aggressive buying in recent years has reflected concern Beijing's policies could make some materials unobtainable.

     

    The earthquake knocked share prices lower for some prospecting companies, reflecting concerns that any disruption in Japanese demand would hurt rare-earth prices and make already risky mines more difficult to finance.

     

    A correction was already underway before the earthquake, after a huge 2010 rally in major miners: Shares of U.S. producer Molycorp Inc. are off about 10% this year while Lynas is down 2.9%. Shares in China's big producer,Shanghai-list... Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth, however, are up around 17%.

     

    So far, market analysts say evidence suggests any disruption in Japan's demand will be limited. Indeed, some argue Japan's post-earthquake nuclear crisis could spark extra demand for the longer term─for instance, for neodymium magnets used in windmills.

     

    'One could anticipate a positive impact for rare earths, as they are used in green energy,' said one Europe-based trader. 'It seems to me people will focus more on renewables.'

     

    The trader said his Japanese clients indicate they are focused on more than business now, so information is in short supply.

     

    But at least in some cases they are reaffirming orders. 'They are not cancelling or delaying,' said the trader.

     

    Also shaping global rare-earth trends are rumblings in Washington, where critics of Beijing's export policies are urging retaliation, possibly with a case at the World Trade Organization.

     

    Last week, several U.S. senators said Chinese miners should be barred from investing in the U.S. until rare-earth supplies are guaranteed.

     

    Congressional aides say bills will shortly be introduced that could require the U.S. military to stockpile rare earths.

     

    China set its initial first-half export quota at 14,509 metric tons, and policy makers haven't indicated when they will release a subsequent quota. Last year, exports came to 39,813 metric tons, valued at $940 million. Some analysts expect China to adjust mechanics of the quota, which now applies to all 17 of the elements and may have distorted pricing of some elements.

     

    At the annual meeting of China's legislature earlier this month, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said quotas are needed to protect China's environment, according to the Xinhua news agency, and also urged other countries with prospects to produce rare earths to accelerate their mining-permit process so alternative sources can be developed.

     

    'We are even willing to cooperate with countries like Japan in developing alternatives of rare earth because rare-earth resources are very limited indeed,' Mr. Chen said.

     

    James T. Areddy
    25 Mar 2011, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    This is another article from Asian Wall Street Journal Chinese Edition.
    Again original article was in Chinese and following is the auto-translated version.

     

    2011年 03月 07日 14:52
    China Minmetals Head Backs Beijing Rare Earths Plan

     

    In the latest sign China is on its way to consolidating its rare earths industry, the head of the country's largest metal and minerals trading company threw his support behind government plans to consolidate the number of companies with access to Chinese rare earths.

     

    The comments reinforce a message the Chinese government has repeated for months: Industry consolidation and stricter quotas are coming. At the same time, they're a reminder of a simmering international trade dispute in which many countries - particularly the U.S. - contend the quotas are a violation of free trade agreements.

     

    China argues that more tightly controlling supply of the metals is a matter of environmental protection and a right it is afforded under international trade agreements.

     

    Zhou Zhongshu, president of China Minmetals, told the state-run Xinhua news agency that under the current setup local officials award mining licenses to smaller local firms, which he says are less likely to embrace environmental protection practices and produce inferior products. He said the current system 'hinders the development of the sector,' Xinhua reported.

     

    That's an oft-repeated argument for the Chinese side, though it is being increasingly challenged in the U.S. and EU. Opponents of China's plans argue that because China controls more than 95 percent of the world's rare earths supplies, strategically limiting exports could have significant impacts on the global economy. So-called rare earths are usually defined as a collection 17 elements, which became increasingly important in recent years for their role in producing electronics as well as military weaponry.

     

    Last month, the WTO ruled against China's trade policies on several key steel-making ingredients. It's a ruling that industry analysts say clears the way for the U.S. to file formal WTO complaints over China's rare earths policies. While the U.S. has grown increasingly concerned over rare earths supply access, China has begun building its stockpile, which further increases the Chinese government's power to influence the minerals' prices. Some analysts question the wisdom of China's stockpiling of rare earths because it raises the hackles of other countries.

     

    'In my view, [a reserve] makes the Chinese position worse,' Steve Dickinson, an attorney at the Seattle law firm Harris & Moure, told The Wall Street Journal.

     

    Neither side seems to be budging in the ongoing dispute. It's one that has left industry watchers and government officials waiting for a resolution that seems likely only to come from a WTO ruling.

     

    Brian Spegele
    25 Mar 2011, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX +0.96%, Lynas on the ASX +2.23%. Above 20 day SMA, looks to be ~A$2.03.

     

    Currency conversion gives a U.S. equivalent of US$2.19.

     

    Pre-market bid/ask $2.15/$2.17, *presented* balanced.

     

    PPS well above rising trend support @ ~$2.08 today. Above 10 & 20 day SMAs of $1.95 & $2.04, respectively, and each is rising.

     

    We made a doji yesterday. This indicates a change coming. But we had rising volume on higher high and low yesterday, indicating it should move up still. But, as mentioned in past posts, stochastic is overbought and is a concern. My real concern is we are so far above the trend support and the two short-term SMAs.

     

    I'm uncertain what I think happens today.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/18...... 3/21...... 3/22...... 3/23........ 3/24........ 3/25
    Last...... 1.920.... 1.935.... 2.000... 2.060...... 2.090...... 2.140
    $+/-...... 0.025.... 0.015.... 0.065... 0.060..... 0.030...... 0.050
    Bid........ 1.915..... 1.935.... 1.995.... 2.050..... 2.080...... 2.140
    Offer..... 1.940..... 1.940.... 2.010... 2.070..... 2.100...... 2.150
    Open.... 1.940..... 1.950.... 2.000... 2.100..... 2.090...... 2.130
    High..... 2.010.... .1.970.... 2.030.... 2.150..... 2.110...... 2.150
    Low...... 1.920.... 1.930..... 1.975.... 2.040.... 2.070...... 2.110
    Vol. 62.858M 26.737M 30.665M 38.741M 24.094M 31.425M

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/10....... 3/11......... 3/14.......... 3/15........ 3/16........ 3/17
    Last...... 1.985..... 1.975....... 1.890........ 1.755...... 1.885...... 1.895
    $+/-..... -0.085... -0.010..... -0.085...... -0.135....... 0.130...... 0.010
    Bid........ 1.985...... 1.975...... 1.890........ 1.750...... 1.880...... 1.890
    Offer..... 1.990...... 1.980...... 1.895........ 1.765....... 1.890...... 1.900
    Open.... 2.100..... 1.930....... 1.930....... 1.870....... 1.680...... 1.835
    High...... 2.110..... 2.070....... 1.945........ 1.950....... 1.905...... 1.895
    Low...... 1.985....... 1.920...... 1.840........ 1.715....... 1.675...... 1.780
    Vol. 30.271M 41.751M 37.751M.. 49.797M. 52.946M. 47.634M

     

    HardToLove
    25 Mar 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tick, tock, tick, tock...

     

    Lynas investors, pundits, and manipulators alike are all just waiting.

     

    I had thought there was a 1 in 5 chance of news about Mount Weld today. If they were going to announce another delay, they would do so very soon (could still happen AH today, of course)...

     

    If the plant cranks up next week, as expected, we would NOT hear about it until the event, though...

     

    Tick, tock, tick, tock...
    25 Mar 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    blogs.wsj.com/chinarea...

     

    A new tax on Chinese exports of rare earths may be less interesting for the underpinning effect it could have on already firm metals prices than it is for possible policy implications that have little to do with costs.......
    25 Mar 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As a long time self-employed commercial artist, I have learned that there is no such thing as a "bad sale", just a "bad price", ie, rather than turn down jobs I really might rather not do, I increase the price to the point where either I will be happy to do the job or just don't get the price (and the job).

     

    China's geopolitical maneuvering is becoming more nuanced, given their sitrep with the WTO and their primary customers. Banning exports is one thing, whereas simply increasing prices is very different (though it might have a similar real-world effect). Tax increases also raise the total price, of course.

     

    China has a lot of maneuvering room in this area, and we can expect them to actively and vigorously use it.
    25 Mar 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Triple, you do realize you have just unmasked yourself as a ULC -- an Unabashed Libertarian Capitalist. To do work you love for the cost of materials and time, and to do less enjoyable work to keep the wolf away from the door at ever-increasing prices until the joy of what that money buys -- extra time, vacation, freedom from want, better bargaining power going forward, or your favorite things -- outweighs the initially onerous nature of the job... why, that makes you a responsible citizen completely in control of your own destiny.

     

    Careful! In this Brave New World, when this nanny or that discovers you are a whole sigma beyond dead center on the bell curve, they may perceive you are a threat to their mindless quest for docility and conformity!

     

    Grins, ULCs United Against the Machine
    25 Mar 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey, I RESEMBLE that remark!

     

    LOL.
    25 Mar 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The new Atlas Shrugged movie is out April 15. Darn appropriate launch date, that. I pray it is a good one (book is in 2 parts, which is a good sign, its far too much book for just one movie).

     

    If the movie is good at all, I will be gifting friends and family with tickets.

     

    Like the Linder/Boortz FairTax book, its an investment in the world I'm leaving for our kids.

     

    www.atlasshruggedpart1...
    25 Mar 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13383) | Send Message
     
    Hoarding of RE metals only encourages the development of new mining in other countries. Likewise, it pushes up prices in the short run which it seems the posters on this blog like. The real big barrier to RE mining is environmental laws and the low processing efficiency requiring a huge amount of ore for extraction. Clearly China has the benefit of low to no environmental protections there.

     

    I believe as the US restarts RE mining the US can compete evenly on the second issue. The issue is whether or not it will still be affordable after environmental regulators get their hands on the permitting.
    25 Mar 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    WSJ article/blog discussing some possible implications of China's move to hike the taxes on rare earths:

     

    blogs.wsj.com/chinarea...
    26 Mar 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    One aspect of the article I found particularly interesting:

     

    "Another, more speculative way of looking at the new tax is by considering how it figures into China’s defense of its quota system.

     

    "China counters policymakers in Washington, Berlin and Tokyo who say China is hording the metals and using the quotas as a trade weapon by claiming the quotas are necessary to protect the environment. The U.S. Congress is already mobilizing to offset the impact of the quotas and trade lawyers say it is only a matter of time before a case challenges it at the World Trade Organization.

     

    "Under WTO rules, the environment is an acceptable reason to have quotas – but only if the environmental protection effort is applied locally as well as internationally.

     

    "The tax might allow Beijing to demonstrate it is serious about protecting the environment because it penalizes Chinese miners. While the tax isn’t large, Chinese rare earth producers are at least likely to feel it more than Prius buyers."

     

    This only helps TB's argument that a WTO ruling on China's rare earth quotas would likely come out differently than the recent ruling on other metals.
    26 Mar 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Precisely. And this conclusion was logical (given prior events) well BEFORE the series of poorly researched articles which bombarded the REE sector.

     

    This sort of thing is maddeningly common. Its hard to post a comment which mentions even the most forthright facts of the REE geopolitical situation without encountering agitprop.

     

    LOL, we even have our own version of Holocaust denial, with folks who will pop up like idiot moles whenever China's recent ban on REE shipments to Japan, the EU and the US are mentioned.

     

    "China never instituted a ban on REE shipments".

     

    If you tell a lie often enough and loud enough, SOME of the less intelligent among us will ultimately come to believe it. All the most outrageous conspiracy theories start out this way, after all...

     

    Then you encounter the multitudes of ways in which reality can be twisted via semantics.

     

    It wasn't a ban, it was a "series of supply disruptions - the timing was pure coincidence". China would never seek to achieve key national goals using their position as the world's monopoly supplier of rare earth elements....

     

    LOL.
    27 Mar 2011, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): From Chihawk's facebook page, a hilarious, yet very sobering, video. I encourage all to take a look - it's quite short.

     

    www.abc.net.au/tv/chas...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Mar 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I did not put this up, but I did think it was funny (maybe I 'like'ed" it and got it on my page like that). It originally came from one of the Hot Copper LYC mates. They are getting very charged up over Crown. So much so that I figured I'd tie the themes together and publish a website on the subject. The more I hear about this the worse it gets. It is a total vote NO.
    27 Mar 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    I enjoyed it and posted a link to you page and that video elsewhere too, with attribution to the name attached to it.

     

    The discussion and efforts by you, TB, User, ... have also convinced me a NO is appropriate and I'm hoping that some momentum is started.

     

    This week I will be e-mailing Lynas to request a contact to whom I can pose questions. I'm hoping that everyone else does the same.

     

    Maybe we can get them to either reconsider or justify their actions.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I loved it.

     

    Maybe he will even take it to heart.
    26 Mar 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    This just came in as well:

     

    tinyurl.com/4qnjko8
    26 Mar 2011, 05:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    ROTFLMAO!

     

    That was truly the entertainment of the day!

     

    Congrats!

     

    Let's see if it goes "viral"! (That would help the PPS of NVAX, no?)

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I've played it about 7 times already - what a hoot!
    26 Mar 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    laist.com/attachments/...
    26 Mar 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Two good laughs in one day!

     

    Thank you also!

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. If this keeps up I might look forward to "working" Saturdays! :-))
    26 Mar 2011, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good pig, but I wonder why they got the anatomy backwards. Reverse it and the anus ends up in the correct location.
    27 Mar 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Any new thoughts on the potential peak share price for Lynas Corp?

     

    Realistic price 4 -5.00 1- 3 years out.

     

    With hype factor thrown in 6 - 8.00

     

    Thinking of selling the bulk of my shares early - mid 2013, after MCP truly gets going.
    26 Mar 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    ISTR that someone did a "back of the napkin" on this in one of the prior blogs from TB. Using conservative numbers. But I don't recall the price, but I do recall it was a large number.

     

    Keep in mind that MCP has, AFAIK, no "heavies" and Lynas does. Further, Lynas will have production ramped, both Mt. Weld and the Malaysian LAMP ramped much earlier and have customers locked up before MCP gets up to much more than take off speed on it's new facilities.

     

    So Lynas PPS might easily be higher, IMO, than MCP. That's assuming that Lynas doesn't just "stand still", which I can't imagine happening.

     

    OTOH the pps could be affected by the nasty heavy capex needed if Lynas does pursue aggressive expansion, so ...

     

    Anyway, I think if you search those prior concentrators, I think you'll find the number. But it won't be easy ... or I would do it for you! :-)

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    26 Mar 2011, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    thestar.com.my/news/st...

     

    KUANTAN: MCA has formed a joint committee to represent the people in the case involving the rare earth plant in Gebeng near here.

     

    Kuantan MCA chief Datuk Ti Lian Ker said the committee would draft out a memorandum detailing the concerns voiced by the residents on the project and hand it over to the Cabinet.......
    27 Mar 2011, 03:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Well, that sounds like a very reasonable approach. Let' hope it addresses the issues adequately.

     

    Now we need to do something to get Nick to address the issues Chihawk brought up, especially since User detected the fact in Lynas's own documents that tend to indicate that there is no foundation for either the current or past valuation of the Crown tenement nor for the A$1B development cost.

     

    As of right now, I'm leaning towards the view of others, to vote no. This based on the additional understanding of possible lack of proper valuation of the resource, in the past and present, and *probable* lack of underpinnings for the estimated development costs.

     

    Nick may be a great guy and all, but I feel now that the BOD and he may not have the best interests of shareholders at heart in this matter. At the very least, as Chihawk has pointed out, some clarification and additional definition of how the numbers were developed, in the past and now, should be provided for scrutiny.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2011, 05:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My position has never changed, since first I heard of a potential sale of the Crown assets. Its too soon. If Lynas MUST come up with another $20mm, better they borrow the money, or...

     

    Dilute. I HATE dilution, and I truly believe it is NOT needed in this case, but if it is, how much damage would selling 10million new shares really do? 6 tenths of 1 percent, .006, disappears into the normal daily stock move!

     

    No, Lynas should NOT do this deal with Forge, regardless, not now, and not at this price.
    27 Mar 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Interesting take on the medium-term prospects for MCP.
    27 Mar 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Some more short-term whimsical meanderings of an admittedly deranged mind can be found here.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2011, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): (LYSDY): Mt. Weld compositon basket price bumped another A$4+: now A$122.93.

     

    Let's hope this give our pps another bump tonight on the ASX and here in the U.S.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    Lynas just issued more data explaining their Crown and Swan deposit deal with Forge.

     

    I still don't like it.
    27 Mar 2011, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    Forge update pdf.
    27 Mar 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    128 pages! Either it's thorough or its the old "If you can't blind 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bull$h*t" routine.

     

    I'm not going to read it tonight - it's been a long day already!

     

    But thanks for the links. I was at the Lynas site a couple hours ago looking for anything new and didn't see anything new.

     

    Maybe I was in the wrong section.

     

    Which tabs were you at when you found 'em?

     

    Thanks again,
    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2011, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ASX puts an asterisk next to the symbol (LYC) when you do a search for the current status. Hit the asterisk and it leads you to announcements like these.

     

    I skimmed it, but I won't try to dissect it now, too tired myself right now. Looks like a sales job to me, dog and pony show aimed at selling a hard sell... And note that they promise an even more thorough mailing to the stockholders come April.

     

    This is NOT a good thing, this sort of process could suppress the stock price all by itself. Just the effect of disenchanted investors decreasing their positions or bailing could make a nasty dent. If folks like us that are predisposed in favor of Lynas are disturbed, imagine the reactions of less attuned stockholders.

     

    Anyway, IF Lynas is flat or slightly down on the ASX, then takes off on the American exchange in the morning, that would not surprise me... In fact, I am expecting such a departure at some point very soon, followed by a sequence where the American markets start pointing the way.

     

    Mood in Australia is very depressed, they view the sitrep in Japan with a lot of alarm (imagine if ALL the United States were as wacko as California).
    27 Mar 2011, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the tip on the asterisk!

     

    Yep, I also was beginning to wonder how much effect this Crown deal might have on pps. It was hard enough working this stuff with this sort of a "monkey wrench" being tossed into the works.

     

    This might be one time to keep a close eye on the pundits and see what kind of "spin" the documents are given. Also, the big players opinions would carry some weight. Those two sources - media and big players - might shape the sentiment to the benefit of the big holders.

     

    "imagine if ALL the United States were as wacko as California"

     

    LoL! Having spent many years there in my youth, when it was much less "wacko", but still very "wacko", that made me chuckle!

     

    And for the Aussies, I agree. And let's not forget they also are still likely recovering from their own recent doses of havoc from mother nature.

     

    It can take a while to work through those sorts of things.

     

    Well, I'm going to call it "yesterday". Have a fine evening and I'll "see" you in the morning!

     

    HardToLove.
    27 Mar 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Alkane now trading in new range....currently 1.79 down under (and market is mixed/down). I had sold partial and hoped to add back in the 1.3O's. Anyone care to take a stab at a reasonable entry/add price for this stock. I am changing my thinking. I think I will add under 1.60 now. Wait... I can't believe I am saying that... Anyone?
    27 Mar 2011, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Just got this regarding Lynas and sale of Mt. Weld assets/Forge deal:

     

    www.proactiveinvestors...

     

    ...and Alkane now at 1.80!
    27 Mar 2011, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Alkane has been as high as high as $1.84 (up .185 or 11%). Apparently a couple analysts gave favorable reports. I hope that translates into US dollars for us Uptop. In the few months that I've been in REE stocks, probably my best performer.
    27 Mar 2011, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    ASX has formally asked ALK to explain their new volume and valuation. This is the response, which says nothing much.

     

    I don't know of any reason for Alkane to suddenly be so popular either.

     

    Given the lack of visible support for the new valuation, I would tread cautiously with this stock. I have a core holding in Alkane, but no trading stock at the moment, but the higher it goes the closer I am coming to selling part of my core...
    28 Mar 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    For the 2nd time in the last month or so, Alkane had to issue a statement saying that there was nothing unannounced that could be causing the spike in their share price. They ended Monday at 1.795 (up .175) and Lynas was up a measly .02 at 2.16.
    28 Mar 2011, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX ended down 0.17% but Lynas still gained 0.935%, not stellar but better than a swift kick. Volume was anemic. PPS still above 20 day SMA, which is rising, so that's a positive. But PPS is along way above the 20 (~A$2.04) and we're likely to see price weaken to come back to the 20.

     

    Recal that in the U.S. Friday we traded very narrowly ($2.14-$2.17) and closed @ $2.15 with low volume. With a $2.10-$2.11 gap from Thurs.-Fri. to close and that indecisive behavior on price and volume, I wouldn't be surprised to se us move and close that gap. If we're not starting a move down, I wouldn't expect lowe than $2.08/$2.09.

     

    If we're beginning a down leg, I look for $2.04/$2.05. One thing to keep in mind is that Fridays are often low volume restricted range regardless. So we won't know much about Friday's import until we see what happens today and tomorrow.

     

    I'm hoping that we're seeing OZ take the lead again, but their volume was weak, so even though they finished up as we were down Friday, we can't pass the baton yet.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/28
    Last...... 2.160
    $+/-...... 0.020
    Bid........ 2.150
    Offer..... 2.170
    Open.... 2.100
    High..... 2.180
    Low..... 2.100
    Vol. 24.658M

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/18...... 3/21...... 3/22...... 3/23........ 3/24........ 3/25
    Last...... 1.920.... 1.935.... 2.000... 2.060...... 2.090...... 2.140
    $+/-...... 0.025.... 0.015.... 0.065... 0.060..... 0.030...... 0.050
    Bid........ 1.915..... 1.935.... 1.995.... 2.050..... 2.080...... 2.140
    Offer..... 1.940..... 1.940.... 2.010... 2.070..... 2.100...... 2.150
    Open.... 1.940..... 1.950.... 2.000... 2.100..... 2.090...... 2.130
    High..... 2.010.... .1.970.... 2.030.... 2.150..... 2.110...... 2.150
    Low...... 1.920.... 1.930..... 1.975.... 2.040.... 2.070...... 2.110
    Vol. 62.858M 26.737M 30.665M 38.741M 24.094M 31.425M

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Looks like my concerns were unfounded. 15 min pre-open, nice buy imbalance, presented* 4:1 $2.17/$2.18. So this should continue a run up. Might close the top of the $2.21 gap?

     

    Next gap to close $2.24/$2.28, 3/3-3/4. If it closes, recent $2.35 comes on radar. *Gently* falling apparent trend resistance ~$2.34. But it's only got the origin and one touch point, so we don't know if it carries any weight now.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Might anyone be in a mood for a helping of manganese?
    The stock for AMYZF.pk went up in the first couple of months this year while most rare earths stocks were going sideways to down. I'm working on a line of inquiry about whether or not non- REE strategic metals stocks can behave like a hedge to the REE stocks.
    www.resourceintelligen...
    www.reuters.com/financ...
    28 Mar 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (REMX) might have something to do with the situation. The bulk of that ETF is strategic metals companies with market caps above $150mm.

     

    Of course, one should include the Uranium plays in any strategic minerals list, and those were out-performing REEs until recently...

     

    But not anymore.

     

    So long as the "MCP has won the REE wars and all the other REE miners outside China are going to die" mantra is in vogue, this sort of behavior is to be expected. Of course, those who have spent time seeking out the truth know that mantra is just false advertising, but UNTIL some other REE companies demonstrate just how foolish that mantra is...

     

    But as always, good strategic mineral investments are good to find.
    28 Mar 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The manganese commentator followed up his report with an interview.
    www.businessinsider.co...
    29 Mar 2011, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Guys CHeck it out here:
    www.lynascorp.com/page...

     

    Did you guys noticed how much higher Neodynium jumped in particular?
    28 Mar 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lights for magnets are out of sight. A reason to pay close attention to what happens to MCP and Lynas.
    28 Mar 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The metallurgists are picking up on the neodymium story.
    www.ipmd.net/news/0011...
    29 Mar 2011, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): I suspect a brief retrace - took some profits. If I'm right, will add back shortly.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    On looking over that Lynas agreement I noticed that only shareholders in Australia and New Zealand will have the opportunity to subscribe for Forge Shares. I think that tells us the lay of the land on this deal.

     

    I see the Forge capital raising involves what appears to be a massive dilution of about 73% (21M shares to 77.3M shares). Current price is about 1.10 per share, so the share price after the dilution should be about .30 per share.

     

    That 7M acquisition is at the average issue price of the Forge capital raising so that's 2.1M (7Mx.3). So the purchase price of those Forge shares is 10% of the Forge payment to Lynas. The option to purchase those shares expires 5 years after the deal...

     

    The big question I see here is if the 1B number to develop the site is true, where is Forge going to get that money? It looks like their capital raising will bring in (77.3-21.0)X.30 = 17M. Subtract the Lynas payment for the lease and you have a net of
    minus 4M?

     

    I must be missing something or I made a silly mistake... What is Forge going to do if they have access? They are already at 73% dilution... is there a hidden acquisition involved?
    28 Mar 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Lynas buys Forge lock, stock and barrel for pennies/share? Get's all of forge including Crown back? The warrants become immediately more valuable?

     

    I know, that's just silly ...

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its an asset shell game. Forge will be for sale the moment the deal closes, with its primary asset the Lynas deposits and access to Lynas facilities.

     

    The calculation seems to be that by splitting the other assets away from Lynas and its REE business, they can be freely sold to a customer base which would include the original intended purchaser for Lynas, ie, Curtis' Chinese connections. Will the Australian government once again step in to block the sale? I believe Nick and his planners have decided "not".
    28 Mar 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    An Australian business column has more news and views about the deal in the bottom half of it.
    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    28 Mar 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (9658) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Lynas buys Forge lock, stock and barrel for pennies/share?

     

    HTL that would be my take on it. Lynas will already own 15% as I understand it. Curtis is lining up his ducks for a future killing. Maybe the chinese will invest in forge and when Lynas buys them it will be for stock. Bingo the Chinese have Lynus stock.
    28 Mar 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That dodge occurred to me as well. Only an Australian securities lawyer could parse the different pathways...
    28 Mar 2011, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, note this quote:

     

    "Perhaps, though, it would have been better for Forge to get it ''external'' advice from other than Riverstone Advisory, which was Curtis's Sino Resources Capital until about a week before the deal with Lynas was announced.

     

    There is little doubt that Lynas's lead independent director, Liam Forde, is doing the right thing in ensuring shareholders get a vote on the deal."

     

    I disagree with the author's characterization of this as being a deal worth only "1 hundredth" of Lynas' capital base. That assumes the deal IS fairly priced, which is of course the crux of the dilemna.

     

    Note the machinations involving 25m performance shares for Forge's Chaiman and current largest shareholder as well, Curtis... With "outside and independent" reporting by a company which changed its name about 5 minutes before issuing their report from Curtis' very own old company, Sino...

     

    Wow. This deal is more incestuous than an episode of Survivor.
    28 Mar 2011, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The same business columnist had an explanation on Forge's advisor name change at the bottom of his column the next day.
    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    28 Mar 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    www.forgeresources.com...

     

    Bottom of page 5 on the link:
    4. Forge Capital Raising
    • Forge has received commitments for the Professional Investor Placement of $16M and the Underwriting of
    the priority/entitlement offers to the LYC and Forge Shareholders of $15M. These commitments are subject
    to the Transaction proceeding and usual market related clauses.
    • The Forge Capital Raising will comprise:
    i. A professional investor placement of $16M Placement at a proposed issue price of $1.10 per
    share;
    Level 5, 56 Pitt Street Sydney NSW 2000, Tel: (02) 8823 3100 6 | P a g e
    ii. An Underwritten Shareholder Share Placement Scheme (“SPP”) to raise up to $2.5M from
    Forge’s shareholders at a proposed issue price of $1.10 per share. The SPP will allow Forge
    shareholders to subscribe to a minimum of $2,000 worth of new fully paid ordinary shares up
    to a maximum amount of $5,000;
    iii. An Underwritten Priority Offer to Lynas’s shareholders to raise up to $12.5M at a proposed
    issue price of $1.10 per share. The Priority Offer will allow Lynas shareholders in Australia
    and New Zealand to subscribe to new fully paid ordinary shares of an amount between $2,000
    and $5,000.
    • As part of the Forge Capital Raising approximately 7.8 million Options are to be issued to Underwriters, Sub
    Underwriters and Advisers for the provision of the Underwriting and Capital Raising services and in lieu of
    cash underwriting fees. The issue and exercise of these Options will also be subject to Forge shareholders'
    approval;
    • Assuming the Forge Capital Raising outlined above is completed, the Pro-forma Capital Structure of the
    Company upon completion of the Transaction will be as follows:
    Pro-forma Capital Structure
    Existing Securities on Issue 25,127,125
    Options 20,206,397 $ -
    Placement 14,545,455Shares Raising $ 16,000,000
    SPP 2,272,728 Shares Raising $ 2,500,000
    Priority Offer 11,363,637 Shares Raising $ 12,500,000
    Performance Shares converted* 24,000,000 - - These would be Nicholas Curtis’ Performance shares for “finding”/taking a JORC resource for Forge.
    Underwriting, Sub-underwriting and Adviser
    Options 7,818,183
    Lynas Option's 7,000,000

     

    Totals 77,308,945 shares 35,024,580 options = $ 31,000,000 (+24,000,000 Performance Shares that Curtis can convert upon close or thereafter)
    * Assuming the Transaction is completed on the terms outlined above, then the vesting conditions attached to the 24
    million Performance Shares currently on issue would be met, and the Performance Shares will be converted to Ordinary Shares.

     

    My guess is that the transaction dilutes Forge and widens it's float allowing the big boys to buy in thereafter. But even in this case, the institutions have no apparent reason to buy into Forge or sell Crown as Lynas holders unless they are given a buy-in agreement or private raising for Crown's development.
    28 Mar 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Nice.... very nice... Guns and Trip!!

     

    The old Asset Shares Shell Game ... aka the Ass G.
    28 Mar 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (13383) | Send Message
     
    So what happens to Sino-Resources in the Forge Lynas deal? I agree that this seems like a very strange event. Maybe everyone is looking for further reasoning and clarification.
    28 Mar 2011, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I have some interest in Wings IOMC/Wings Enterprises. Researching at the moment. Is there a way to invest....other than Glencore? Wings is a privately-owned company, correct?
    28 Mar 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Good day for Pacific Wildcat. Be sure and take a look at those #s....pretty stout. Stock currently up .25@ 1.31...wish I had more shares atm.

     

    www.thestreet.com/stor...
    28 Mar 2011, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Sold out of it today Rain.
    PAW released drill results. The numbers were not bad, but too light. The OK TREO combined with the thorium count (over 500ppm) tells me this thing is toast long term. The real rare earth mine in Africa is Kangankunde, Malawi (Lynas). All the other mines besides Steenkampskraal, are not worth the time to production and African geopolitical issues.
    Lynas, Great Western and NTU & FRG (Forge) down the road. That's MO.
    28 Mar 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Chi. I need to look at that closer. Saw the TREO % on way out of the door and thought it looked good - especially after seeing such weak drill results and TREO% lately from those of UCORE, Metamec, et al. I will give it a closer look. Currently @ 1.69. And I am still into short-term plays...although I have been doing less trading and more holding/looking long-term. Thanks
    28 Mar 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Frontier looks like it is the game with its Zandkopsdrift mining claim located west of the Steenkampskraal Mine. Frontier has about 70% Great Western's market capitalization according to Reuters. It lists on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Since it is headquartered in Luxembourg it attracts European interest as well as North American. Unlike Great Western with its far flung responsibilities, Frontier is focused on developing that one project.
    frontierrareearths.com...
    www.proactiveinvestors...
    28 Mar 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, an excellent high quality junior explorer candidate. Excellent numbers, and the classic layout for an open pit operation. Few of the juniors we watch every day possess the numbers of this deposit. It is at the lower limits of the rich ore numbers you see at MCP, Lynas and Steenkampskraal, with heavies enriched compared with MCP and Lynas, though not Steenkampskraal... HOWEVER, GWM's mine is a hard rock tunnel whereas Frontier will be an open pit, and has less trouble on the processing end with fewer radioactives and more light REEs to help carry the load.

     

    The chart is very ugly, though. From a recent high of $3.75, its augering in and I would definitely wait until it plateaus before jumping aboard. The chart is telling me that the intial valuation a few months back was simply too high for it to sustain, and the stock is still undergoing price discovery.
    28 Mar 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Also for Frontier, volume outside the Toronto exchange is very low. It does have a pink sheet symbol, (FRFFF.PK), but with virtually no volume or history of sales.
    28 Mar 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I figure I'll keep it on my watch list for the time being.
    www.ree-investor.com/l...
    28 Mar 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like it a lot. If the price plateaus where I think it will (around $2.40), I may buy some and toss it in the sock drawer.
    28 Mar 2011, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I thought about Frontier and flipped Montero in the past. I concluded they are a pass but not doomed. The problem is it is too light and too far from production. The thorium counts are low which helps. But by the time they build the Zandkopsdrift mine with suitable power, Lynas, Moly, Kangankunde, Steenkampskraal, and Nolan's (and maybe even Crown through Forge or Lynas) should all be in production with long term contracts. At that point, Cerium and Lanthanum prices may fall. At TREO numbers around 3% with 90% LREE and selling concentrate, that could be a tough go. Add to this the fact that African mining is notoriously slow with it's timelines due to governments and weak infrastructure and I decided against them.
    I also see a disturbing trend that the new tests on all of these African mines beyond Steenkampskraal and Kangankunde, have been much lower TREO's or higher thorium counts then prior unclassified measures. To exaggerate the point I'd say I am trying to avoid radioactive gypsum, even if Kenya thinks it makes for good road construction material.
    The simple fact is a great mine is hard to find. I can see how good mines could do OK. But the choices are so great right now, I find it hard to choose from the mines I define as second tier. I guess I just don't have that much money to invest. That's all.
    28 Mar 2011, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB...clarification: Which "has less trouble on the processing end..." ?
    29 Mar 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was referring to Frontier. Wings, as you found, is a difficult investment for a lot of reasons. Perhaps some investible case will be made in the future there, its a very interesting mineral mix, and is essentially the same as several large projects which produce a lot of product in China.

     

    As for the processing comment, I was again comparing Frontier to the many other juniors we talk about (not Wings).

     

    VERY few REE projects are without a long litany of extraneous factors. First and foremost is the fact that they are usually mixed with a strong percentage of radioactives, thurium, Uranium, etc. Some rare earth elements are quite radioactive and/or toxic in their own right, particularly as a high purity metal. When the market for Uranium was bright, I preferred those plays (like Northern Minerals) which had a strong Uranium product in ther mix...

     

    But the events in Japan have set back the nuclear power industry several decades, imo, so that "advantage" has now flipped around to a "disadvantage".

     

    Thorium MIGHT end up as an advantage, though right now it appears it is the "other" radioactive element getting tossed out with the uranium bathwater. Thorium reactors can be built which are much safer to operate than similar uranium-based technology, and IF this logical progression can avoid the nuclear power axe, it might be a long term winner.

     

    Even so, the current climate is extremely anti-radioactive byproducts, so deposits which do NOT feature these have a potential advantage.
    29 Mar 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    "Rare earths miner Lynas Corp will be sending senior management officials here [Kuantan] as opposition builds over its controversial RM700 million refinery in Gebeng, Pahang.
    Key members of its leadership will be heading down to the ground in Kuantan for a second series of townhall meetings to deal with the local community’s rising radiation fears, the Australian company’s general manager of brand, communications and community value, Liz Whiteway, told The Malaysian Insider here last week."

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    Hopefully they can help calm things down for the residents - it seems to me that there has been a lot of terrible misinformation given out (how irresponsible is it to make the locals think that the Lynas LAMP will have consequences similar to those of the old (wicked) Mitsubishi rare earths plant?).
    28 Mar 2011, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hard to blame the locals, particularly given the panick in the media over the Japanese nuclear plant meltdown. Most folks don't comprehend the topic, at best, and end up following the loudest and most strident voice emanating from their favorite television program.

     

    Combating ignorance with facts takes patience and lots of time, and loads of on-the-scene involvement. Here's where we find out how good management is at this sort of thing.
    28 Mar 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Seems there are at least 3 elements to this story and the fears raised...
    (1) Genuine concern for the environment and the safety of those near the plant. Lynas needs to address this honestly and empirically.
    (2) The usual hysteria whenever the word "radioactive" comes up. Images of soldiers blinded for life in the desert and horrible cancer clusters abound. In fact, the actual radiation is likely to be less than what is found as natural background radiation in many places, including many in the US. Lynas can only hope to achieve partial breakthrough here -- panic is panic and paranoia strikes deep.
    (3) Politicians pander. They'll take any issue and blow it out of proportion if it will get their picture on page 1, gain them notoriety enough for their name to be remembered at the ballot box, or bring them to the attention of the next strongman who needs a populist to keep the peasants in line. Unless one is willing to co-opt the already corrupt, there is no dealing with this menace other than exposing their true motives to sunlight.
    30 Mar 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. That should be (FREFF.PK). As you said information is very sketchy and I didn't have time to call in an inquiry. I may do that tomorrow but it's trading on negative momentum.
    28 Mar 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Odd article which tracks MCP as some sort of S&P 500 breakout bellweather stock (!!!???), oooookkkkkkk...

     

    Anyway, it reminded me that there is a subject we touch upon but have not fully discussed, the geopolitical strategy at play in China's REE Cartel.

     

    China really hates to lose these WTO challenges, and the one coming for REEs has seen them erecting a very strong and well-established defense based upon domestic demand, environmental damage, and problems controlling a "criminal underclass" (LOL, one day we'll have to talk about who, exactly, RUNS these Chinese mining syndicates). I see this as a very sound plan, and one that is a strong defense...

     

    But ONLY if they actually put teeth into enforcing their environmental laws. As has been widely reported, the Chinese environmental agency sees something more than 90% of all the REE operations as no in compliance with their laws. If China is to use these same laws as a geopolitical/economic defense, they just MIGHT have to actually use them.

     

    And when that happens, as the world's largest REE consumer, they will find themselves in essentially the same boat that Japan and the rest of the West is in whenever China bans, er, "coincidentally experiences supply disruptions of " rare earth metals.

     

    What to do, what to do...

     

    But wait, there IS that idea that China is building up a strategic stockpile of their own, one which will be there so that their industries (unlike those of much of the planet outside Japan) can weather a long period in which they must at least pretend to treat environmental problems seriously.

     

    So, in conclusion, lets not forget that even IF some future WTO complaint results in a stern slap on the wrist, China has planned ahead and is ready for the outcome - and ready to make hay in the meantime.

     

    Keep this in the background as you read loosey-goosey articles like the one I've linked at the top of the page....

     

    LOL, MCP, with a PE of somewhere north of 500, is a "breakout bellweather", surrogate for the S&P...

     

    Good grief.
    28 Mar 2011, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    What do you think of this interview, TB? Molycorp is the only REE miner with the goods?
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    28 Mar 2011, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Smith as the CEO of MCP is, of course, not the person to trust as to whether MCP is the answer to the planet's REE prayers.

     

    I'm not impressed with the MCP CEO, he has made a lot of errors since the IPO. MCP is doing as well as it is due to moves made by the venture capitalists who bankrolled the whole thing, and a deal with Hitachi which I still suspect will NOT be all roses and magnet factories for MCP.

     

    REEs are a critical strategic resource for every country with a technological industry. How likely is it that everyone will just throw in their hands and trust their future to a choice between bumbling Americans like Smith (who have built absolutely zip thus far, wild predictions and promises aside) or the tender mercies of the Chinese Cartel?

     

    MCP is one of the MOST risky investment in the REE sector, imo, perhaps even worse than (REE) and Stans Energy...

     

    For now.

     

    As time goes on and their business plan comes more and more to resemble some sort of wild attempt to grab ALL the ex-Chinese REE business on the planet... The less believable their narrative becomes.
    29 Mar 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Got info from my contact that There will be a parliament march in Malaysia tomorrow against lynas project

     

    Kepe yu guys updated
    28 Mar 2011, 10:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The powers that be are requesting information. They don't have enough?
    www.pi.energy.gov/docu...
    29 Mar 2011, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Nothing really new in this article, but it is another telling of the concerns about the LAMP and dated 3/29. I figure they're going to keep hammering this for a long while.

     

    Outlook, IMO, is not good right now. In comments in other articles, too many comments like "If it's so safe, why not build it in Australia where there's lots of uninhabited areas?".

     

    If I was Malaysian, I'd consider that a fair point.

     

    Once people get emotional about an issue, facts, even if positive and well understood, are often not accepted and conspiracy, corruption and greed are just assumed to be in play. Add in an "authority figure" with, seemingly, the people's best interests in mind opposing the project and you have a situation which, at best, is going to be more difficult, more costly and run off-schedule.

     

    "Kuantan MCA breaks ranks with government over Lynas plant"

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2011, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Answers to the "Why not build it in Australai?" question:

     

    1. Malaysia was willing to grant a 10 year tax holday. No such goody in Australia. Taxes are just profits that you lose when you have to pay them.

     

    2. Malaysia is located ON the Asian continent, along with most of the potential customers (including China) for REEs. Australia isn't. Transportation costs and turnaround times are lower.

     

    3. Malaysia has a strong and growing domestic demand for REE metals, including hard drive production and magnets. Australia has virtually none.

     

    4. Malaysia is a pro-business country with few political barriers to buying and selling goods, including to the Red Chinese. Australia is a far-left, anti-business environment, with many political barriers to buying and selling goods, particularly to the Red Chinese (and particularly strategic metals, which is the whole point of the LAMP).
    29 Mar 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I agree, the only reason environmental concerns have been raised in the population is due to the recent radiation induced hysteria. There is no external radiation threat, the process pools have been lined and are built over impenetrable clay. Lynas has done a good job with respect to meeting and exceeding environmental standards in the construction of that plant.

     

    Realistic environmental threats might involve earthquakes and flooding. What would be the consequences of those events? I would think those consequences were already covered in the initial approval process. There is no way to totally disaster proof an industrial complex.

     

    Unfortunately, the people have been sensitized to anything concerning radiation, and politicians with their own agendas have politicized the plant in order to gain publicity or as a quid-pro-quo related to electing funding.

     

    I don't think it’s politically feasible to not provide the final operating permits after letting the company build the plant. If they did that, what other companies would even consider building anything in their country?

     

    I am thinking the stock price will drop after the ore concentrator is on-line because of the publicity. I also fully anticipate that the paid pumpers of MCP will jump on the story because Lynas represents a very real threat to MCPs stock price. I am planning to sell on a down-trend, wait for a bottom to form at one of the support levels, and then buy back heavy.
    29 Mar 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    "Unfortunately, the people have been sensitized to anything concerning radiation, and politicians with their own agendas have politicized the plant in order to gain publicity or as a quid-pro-quo related to electing funding."

     

    Exactly, this has nothing to do with radiation all to do with "we must doanything and everything whatever the cost to win the election" They need to protest about something or else they dont have a job. Bastards.....
    29 Mar 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Politics are the same everywhere. Australia is trying to digest their own political reality, and this is both one of the prime reasons for moving the LAMP out of Australia, and a concern for the future profitability of Lynas in Australia.

     

    In coming years (presumably after this political nit-picking in Malyasia dies down) I think we will all be very happy that Lynas outsourced the LAMP away from the sticky fingers of the Australian politicians.
    29 Mar 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX +0.40%, Lynas +0.93%. Still above 20 day SMA (~A$2.05?), which is rising. Last evening's volume was very low on Lynas, although improved from the prior session.

     

    Currency conversion: US$2.2317. Let's hope OZ is leading today, but it looks like the U.S. market is still leading for now.

     

    As posted yesterday, I took profits as the chart was starting to look quite iffy. Three days in a row of "dojis", after riding a rising trend support (Mon. ~$2.21) up for 6 consecutive days, went to flat right on that support and closed below it last Friday. Traded completely below it yesterday, Monday. Volume falling Friday and Monday. Pushed upper Bollinger & pps is well above a longer-term rising support and the 10, 20 & 50 day SMAs.

     

    I'm thinking that the late December cessation (for the most part) of the "pump" of REEs by the MSM, the Crown deal and Malaysia environmental concerns are combining to make investors uncertain and that is being reflected in the *long-term* slight down trend in the trading range (lower peak high after 1/4/11 and lower max low since 1/7/11).

     

    Visually (no calculations done), this is not a long-term consolidation, but rather a slow descent where the pps wants to, generally, run $1.80-$2.00. Excursions outside this range have given generally lower highs and lows and pps has gravitated back into that range after those excursions. But that will end, one way or the other, sometime down the road.

     

    ISTM that it's going to take the actual Mt. Weld start-up announcement to give a (short-term?) pop and that until the other issues are settled a slow pps weakening may be observed.

     

    Range may move up as the revenues from Mt. Weld add to the company's value, but I suspect that the unresolved issues will keep it from going as far as it otherwise would, in the near term.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/28..... 3/29
    Last..... 2.160.... 2.180
    $+/-..... 0.020.... 0.020
    Bid....... 2.150.... 2.160
    Offer.... 2.170.... 2.190
    Open... 2.100..... 2.140
    High..... 2.180.... 2.180
    Low..... 2.100.... 2.100
    Vol. 24.658M 27.238M

     

    U.S. A.M. 3/18...... 3/21...... 3/22...... 3/23........ 3/24........ 3/25
    Last...... 1.920.... 1.935.... 2.000... 2.060...... 2.090...... 2.140
    $+/-...... 0.025.... 0.015.... 0.065... 0.060..... 0.030...... 0.050
    Bid........ 1.915..... 1.935.... 1.995.... 2.050..... 2.080...... 2.140
    Offer..... 1.940..... 1.940.... 2.010... 2.070..... 2.100...... 2.150
    Open.... 1.940..... 1.950.... 2.000... 2.100..... 2.090...... 2.130
    High..... 2.010.... .1.970.... 2.030.... 2.150..... 2.110...... 2.150
    Low...... 1.920.... 1.930..... 1.975.... 2.040.... 2.070...... 2.110
    Vol. 62.858M 26.737M 30.665M 38.741M 24.094M 31.425M

     

    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2011, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I believe I just heard that MCP was upgraded to somewhere in the mid-$70s? Oh, really?

     

    This news could play havoc with charting Lynas in the short term. Looks to me like Lynas is attacking the recent $2.31 high reached on March 3.

     

    I'm not trading this stock, just holding long term, so I'm not dutifully tracking as is Hard To Love. One positive about this latest upward trend is that it's occuring over a slightly longer duration, with slightly increasing daily volumes traded. If we see the Bollinger Bands "tighten" around the $2.31 level...that's quite bullish!
    29 Mar 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    MTCEF: I can't confirm it, but another blog reported that Sheldon Inwentash (Chairman of Pinetree) has just bought 250,000 shares of Matamec in the open market. If true, this would be a nice vote of confidence. Can anyone confirm?
    29 Mar 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Ellwodo...please advise if you get confirmation. Metamec has been testing my patience.
    29 Mar 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Lynas ore concentrator announcement should happen any day now... I bought additional LYSDY shares on the open at 21.9... If the pop occurs, my sell target is 23.9... I call this a pop and run play.
    29 Mar 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Agreed...adding more LYSCF today in prep for this announcement...recogni... the risk with Malaysia PR...still think it a good bet for a nice short-term pop.
    29 Mar 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    WHy Rare earth stocks are Surging Today.

     

    www.businessinsider.co...
    29 Mar 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    3rds: See above comment. MCP recieved a boost to mid $70s. Lynas is also in a newsworthy cycle, too. All boats floating up.
    29 Mar 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Sector rotation appears to have swung in our direction...
    29 Mar 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    "Malawi gearing up to produce rare earths - minister"

     

    in.reuters.com/article...

     

    "Malawi expects Australia's Lynas Corp to start mining for rare earth elements in the southern African country "as soon as possible", the natural resources minister said on Tuesday."

     

    Quite a vague statement, of course, and it probably doesn't mean anything over and above the timetable that Lynas already laid out. Still, it is possible that the statement is based on knowledge of some speeding up of the plans, in which case funding by dilution would become more possible. I agree with TB that this isn't the most likely scenario, but I want to keep an eye on it. I'm hoping Lynas doesn't try to overextend themselves as MCP appears to be doing.
    29 Mar 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am less worried that Lynas might start spending money they don't have to develop a project in Afrika than that they will give away assets they COULD easily develop at a project right in the middle of their Mount Weld location.

     

    Entanglement with Forge appears to be the plan, and I for one don't like it.

     

    Malawi COULD be a realistic startup for the foundational items (if only in a small way) as early as next year, but I am thinking more likely it will be in 2013.

     

    IF the idea is to break ground THIS year, all bets are off, and the pitfalls yawn wide.
    29 Mar 2011, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Jan Tabak
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Hi All,

     

    Could someone please explain to me how to read the graph at this link? I don't understand the labeling of the x- and y-axis. What does "basket price" mean for a company's value compared to "value per unit mass of mineral resource"?

     

    www.techmetalsresearch.../

     

    Thanks!
    Jan
    29 Mar 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19449) | Send Message
     
    User can probably explain better, but here's what I read.

     

    Each unit of earth mined has a mix of rare earth in various percentages. And there's also worthless stuff too. So let's say you've got a "grade" of 8% REE in each unit mined. Some % of that 8% is one element, some % of that 8% is another, ...

     

    Each of those elements has a price. So you take the unit mined and calculate the amount of each element expected and it's price. You total those values. That's the "basket" and is plotted on the Y axis.

     

    The X axis is just the value of the basket per unit mined. So if 10% of what is mined is REE, then 10,000 mts would yield 1,000 mt of REEs. The "basket" price is then applied.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its a bad chart. One axes refers to $/kilo, and the other to $/ton. Can't be what they really want to say.

     

    Lynas had a neat chart in their recent pdf that did something similar.

     

    As for "basket price", as Lynas uses the term, it refers to their collective basket of elements present in their mine, weighted by percentage, and expressed as a $/kilo number.

     

    One can then take various estimates of production (or size of reserve, life of mine, etc) and come up with useful estimates.

     

    In the case of Lynas, a $130/kilo basket price translates thus:

     

    11,000mt/yr estimated production starting April 1 would be worth 11,000,000 x $130 = $1,430,000,000.

     

    Once Mount Weld hits their full designed thruput sometime in 2012, the numbers become:

     

    22,000,000 x $130 = $2,860,000,000.

     

    Just for example.

     

    When MCP cranks up their new 44kmt facility (which they claim will occur in 2013, though that appears unlikely to me), they would be making twice as much.
    29 Mar 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    This might help somewhat, too.
    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    29 Mar 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That example would be good for production numbers for in situ estimates. Note the inclusion of the TREO percentage, which makes good sense for that purpose.

     

    For companies with fully developed production facilities where you are working with output numbers (like MCP's pilot plant, various Chinese operations [as if we HAD their numbers], and Lynas, its the same computation without the TREO percentage.

     

    Now, with Lynas's 25% efficiency of ore in and concentrate out (the example they use www.lynascorp.com/page... is 4 tons of ore in, 1 ton of concentrate out) , if one had the raw input number for the Concentrator facility, you could plug in the 25% to get your number.
    29 Mar 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A critical calculation of much more importance than the overall numbers would be a NET number, recognizing all the costs involved.

     

    Lynas has published $7 as their estimated cost per kilo, and mentioned $10 (as a more conservative estimate) in their recent presentation. I believe this also recognizes their current plan to shift their mine to overlap portions of their deposits with more of the heavier element spectrum. Some of these heavies are much sought after, and quite valuable, but they also incur a much higher production cost due to extra steps needed to bring them to highly concentrated oxide form. Some of them are also radioactive and/or toxic, and require special handling, storage and human safety steps which drive up costs per kilo.
    29 Mar 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some of the less-aware pundits forget that production of the less valuable, more comon, lighter REEs may cost LESS, but this is less of an advantage when you compare their lack of heavier elements.

     

    When comparing apples and apples (ie, productions costs of the same elements seperated and processed to the same level from different mines), I believe their rapt focus on a small production cost number will be proved to be nonsense. Lynas, for instance, may indeed experience higher production costs than MCP, but those costs (which at $10 per kilo leave huge markeups for their production) MUST be weighed against the value of the basket produced. Without making this comparison, the exercise is worthless.
    29 Mar 2011, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, another pumping attack on SA: seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    The first 2 comments really say it all.

     

    This author is actually comical. I am shocked that SA lets him post anonymously, his stuff is fairly bald pumping of a very controversial stock (MCP).

     

    I don't hate MCP at all, in fact, I liked it last year, bought near the IPO, and made a ton of money riding it until I bailed when it hit the $50's. I believe it COULD be a strong contender in 2 or 3 years, and command something like $38-39 per share, and actually be worth that much. One day, after 2015 sometime, it MIGHT even be worth as much as its recent high in the $60's, or a bit more...

     

    But this transparent manipulation is nasty...

     

    FUNNY, so long as you understand the facts and what is going one...

     

    But nasty.
    29 Mar 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    These are the guys who are on Fast Money all the time. They don't show any better understanding there either. Nobody does on FM. Can't even pronounce Lynas right.

     

    optionMONSTER:
    "Founded in 2006 and based in Chicago, optionMONSTER®'s team of analysts is led by three highly regarded trading professionals, co-founders Pete and Jon ('DRJ') Najarian along with Guy Adami."
    29 Mar 2011, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'm the repost by "Learn before you speak". I think he is from HotCopper, but I don't know who. Engineer is a shameless pump. I do hate Moly. I hold no position in Moly and I made about two thirds of what you got TB. But I sold because I can't stand Moly's lack of transparency. I don't trust them and I don't understand why the Molyheads seem to try to avoid verifying facts and doing honest research. It's as if every Moly investor was one of these hotel pitch-a-thon lamb-like drowns that just buys the hype and keeps on dreaming. I mean how in the hell do you buy Smith's crap? The guy ought to be at my door selling vacuum cleaners. And yet these Molydogs believe everything he says even when he contradicts himself. And still, never a tough question asked. The whole thing makes me sick as week old fish!
    29 Mar 2011, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    “Higher-value, heavier rare earths — which are rarer and primarily considered for their applications in more futuristic technologies — rose less substantially in price, only about 72% for terbium in 2010 and 35% so far this year,” reported James T. Areddy, for The Wall Street Journal. The effect that the one size fits all trade policy is that heavy rare earths (terbium & dysprosium) are made more available and are not subject to rapid increases in price, while light rare earths which are used in greater volume have seen dramatic price increases due scarcity."
    Here's the article, from resource investing news:
    resourceinvestingnews....
    29 Mar 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We discussed this likelihood last year. China's export quota system, based upon tonnage rather than $/ton, guaranteed this outcome. China might be leaning toward a new valuation system come the 2/HT this summer...

     

    But this just shifts those numbers around some. The Lights will go from "awesome profits" for companies like MCP and Lynas to merely "tremendous profits", while the money for the more rare heavies will go from "great profits" to "rocket to the moon profits".

     

    LOL, its hard to see a downside, particularly since underlying all the fuzzy numbers is the reality that China KEEPS squeezing supplies, increasing tarrifs, increasing taxes, and socking away REE metals in stockpiles rather than shipping them for profit.
    29 Mar 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • stockhawk
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG, for the details. Things could change for the western Co.'s, for sure. I know I'll stay tuned.
    29 Mar 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    OK, gang, the new Concentrator is up! This one is full, so everyone please exit the blog in an orderly fashion, no pushing, no shoving, no shorting the Author's favorite stocks...
    29 Mar 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 2nd Reminder, new blog is up, everyone move to the new blog...

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    29 Mar 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
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