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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strageic Mineral Concentrator, April 14, 2011 150 comments
    Apr 14, 2011 5:31 PM


    One that I call "Spring".  LOL, a double entendre for April, no doubt.  Note the interesting mineralisation I included (heck, might even be rare earths on this alien world - now that I hear we are looking at the moon for deposits, which of course are probably really there, but talk about extraction costs...).

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last comment from prior Concentrator by robert ferguson:

     

    TB: Greetings. By then everyone but the CONgress will have realized what a sham the whole deal really is. Let's hope he speaks on Friday early in the day to provide a nice buying opportunity. You know kind of like a force multiplier for the normal Friday selling pressure as Da Boyz prepare to leave for the week end.
    14 Apr 2011, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    To add frame of reference TB and I were discussing the impact of Voldemort's speech and the budget deal on the market. This comment was regarding the TCIC (Tax Cheat In Charge.) ,good one BTW TB, speaking about the 2011 budget deal next week.
    14 Apr 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Interesting that (UEC), (URG), (URZ), (DNN), (CXZ) all having strong days despite the knock-on effects from Fukishima reactor problems.

     

    Further, (LTBR) is looking like it may break resistance soon and recover some price.

     

    Other than recovering from some of what was lost in the panic selling, does anyone know of any reason these radioactive stocks would be starting to show strength?

     

    Just asking since I agreed that these sorts would be a long time in beginning to recover.

     

    TIA,
    HardToLove
    14 Apr 2011, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Underlying demand for Uranium is still growing, despite the problems, just from the need to feed the current crop of reactors still in use. Russians are about out of recycled warhead fuel rods, too...

     

    We probably won't see the blossoming of new reactors like we would have sans UD Japanese reactor meltdowns, but the existing nuclear industry is large enough (and the project in the pipeline solid enough) to give the miners a solid floor.

     

    DNN has not regained their earlier valuation, but they are looking stable.

     

    Maybe I over-reacted when I tightened stops on DNN, but it worked out well for me, I sold high, and I bought back in low over the past 2 weeks. Now its gaining again...
    14 Apr 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Aha! Thanks! I've been eyeballing (LTBR), just for a trade for now, and ran across these others and was surprised to see them as some of the strongest performers in the metallic mining industry today.

     

    I could see some recovery just from a "rebound" from the sell off, but their strength had me wondering.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Apr 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Fatfretter, in the last concentrator you asked about Schwab pricing. If you normally use Streetsmart, it basically doesn't work for US pinks versions of Canadian stocks. I asked why; the answer is that Streetsmart is a live feed, and it would cost Schwab extra to provide Canadian market quotes on such a feed. As a result, on Streetsmart all you get is the last US pink trade, which could be a half hour old. If you use their static quote box on the bottom of the screen, you get a current market quote, either the most recent US pink trade or the most recent Canadian market quote, usually the latter. That's because accessing the Canadian market for a static quote doesn't cost Schwab extra, as a live feed quote would.

     

    If you do much trading at all of the Canadian juniors it will probably be worth paying for a separate live feed service for the Toronto exchange. I use tmx.quotemedia.com for about $25 per month. Getting live quotes and bid/asks can more than make that up for you in one trade, compared to putting in a bid based on dated information. Just remember that the Canadian quotes are of course in Canadian dollars, so your bid in US dollars will need to be about 3% higher. (When you put in a bid at Schwab for one of these stocks whose main market is Canada, Schwab will execute on either the US pinks or the Toronto exchange, usually the latter because the volume there is so much higher. It makes no difference to you, the underlying shares are the same.) Hope this helps. No need for every Schwab customer to reinvent the wheel.
    14 Apr 2011, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    I don't think I am selling in May. If I held more conventional stocks, probably.
    14 Apr 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    A rare earth expert has reiterated his enthusiasm for Quest. Get it before it gets listed on a major exchange, which should be soon.

     

    long:QSURF
    14 Apr 2011, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Gold Report picked up commentary from Dundee Securities saying that Quest should reach CAD$12.40 within a year. They are still in the midst of determining the extent of rare earths at their Strange Lake exploration site.
    15 Apr 2011, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree that Quest is headed up, though $12.40 seems a bit much until we actually hear they have expanded their higher-TREO zone (1.66%, with a 7 year mine life before they have to start mining 1.16% ore). I have a gut feeling they WILL find better TREO numbers, eventually, but as we found with UCore, they might find that the new numbers are worse than the old...

     

    Still, I will listen to my gut this time and I have a solid core position in Quest, and I'm looking to add on the dip.
    15 Apr 2011, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I would agree, but I think Quest is going to end up in the AVL,REE, MOLY crowd (not in legitimacy or real value as I think it greater than the three short to medium term...just hype and following). Quest is always mentioned with Avalon...not just here...everywhere and may get some of that hype to add to an already legitimate and deserved following thus pushing prices up even further.
    15 Apr 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Ellwodo
    14 Apr 2011, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    To celebrate NTU jumping past the A$1 mark:

     

    I see the rare earth industry dividing into sectors like the oil industry on a mini scale. There will be integrated companies like Lynas, Moly, Arafura, Avalon and Great Western. These are the biggest projects with the greatest costs and the best pay offs if they succeed. As well as the biggest busts if they fail.

     

    Then there will be primarily processors like Neo Materials. And there will be explorers like Northern Minerals, Frontier, Quest, and Alkane that will produce concentrate and might process later on. These guys are lower cost and thus more likely to produce in the future. But their payoff is smaller depending on the quality of their concentrate.

     

    I think this distinction is important because the size and risks of these projects should be measured against their goals and potential success. Lynas' recent comments about processing concentrate from Malawi (and possibly Alkane) is forcing this broadening of the thought.

     

    Northern Materials' recent presentation also suggests that their xenotime could be used as a 'sweetener' concentrate that would increase a concentrates heavy rare earth content without raising radioactivity. This is very interesting to me. Logically, a blend of xenotime and bastinite or low thorium monazite could be a home run in that it could have a full spectrum of Lanthanides with minimal radioactivity and contaminants. You can see how an integrated or processor would love this for developing long term contracts for oxides.

     

    That said it is clear goals need to be considered when evaluating these projects. African mines like Pacific Wildcat, Montero, and Frontier will not have the power or access to processing materials to develop a fully integrated project. Currently, they seem to be content to do floatation and concentration to a 40-60% concentrate that processors seem very willing to buy at this stage.

     

    Canadian explorers all face low TREO situations. Here I would watch for thorium, uranium, and similar contaminants that will make these projects uneconomical. But I would also note that these projects may not be that far away from production.

     

    The processors face a different set of concerns. At the moment they lack concentrate from China so they face a raw material shortage as a specialty chemical producer currently. There future challenge will be to have reliable sources of concentrate that are economical to extract. Here I think the key metric will be costs versus processing efficiency.

     

    Beyond that the question is more of a manufacturing set of metrics for the companies using rare earth oxides.

     

    So how does this all apply to NTU? Very well. NTU could be the richest concentrate with the least radioactivity concerns. It also may have some of the best TREO numbers of any exploration (excluding the integrated projects). When produced it could be the only concentrate in the world that could broaden the spectrum of all other concentrates with the smallest drawbacks. Literally, every processor will want it as the gold standard in our industry. And believe it or not this super power stock that will dominate it's concentrate area of rare earths is on sale today for the low low price of..... A$1.06. DYOR Just MO.
    14 Apr 2011, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    And to think that low, low price is more than double than what is was in the middle of March......
    It should be interesting to follow the story of NTU's neighbor, Navigator Resources NAV and its rare earth offspring, Kimberley Rare Earths KRE, which just came out with a prospectus in an IPO. They are saying that their Cummins Range project is primarily light rare earths comparable to the Mt. Weld situation.
    And it would be interesting to follow the story of another neighbor, Orion Metals ORM, who is fast tracking their drilling for rare earth at the Killi Killi Hills.
    I sometimes wonder how it would be if some of the juniors ever got together to pool their financial resources in developing the mines.
    15 Apr 2011, 02:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am keying in on the higher TREO juniors which are slowly coming to light. I would be interested in KRE, thanks for putting this one on the radar scdreen, VB.
    15 Apr 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I sometimes idly wonder what Lynas will do with all those outstanding shares it has. Might they be thinking that they could arrange stock swaps with the junior explorers in order to merge or absorb them gradually as they discover the rare metals?
    15 Apr 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Most of all thanks for sharing this VB.

     

    Orion Metals ORM looks interesting but very speculative. It's xenotime which I like but the numbers are much smaller then NTU. And if you want to go this far out on a limb there is always Quantum Resources Limited (QUR-ASX). But honestly, these are a wild flier at this stage and too unknown for me to buy any. I might watch the top 20 shareholder list to get a tip off to progress here.

     

    Kimberley Rare Earths KRE looks a little weak to me. The pyroxenite is unfamiliar to me. And while the prospectus says it's like Central Lanthanide Deposit at Mt Weld in terms of heavy to light ratios, the 2% TREO estimate with uranium in the area is not at all like Mt. Weld. They also tout potentially very low strip ratios, but the chart shows they have a lot more to take off the top than Lynas' Crown for similar metals. So I have my doubts but I'm no geologist. I'll pass on the IPO and see how it trades. If it gets some buzz I'd check a top shareholder list down the road and see if that excites me. Just MO.
    16 Apr 2011, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I'm impressed by the junior miners for having the gumption to do what they are doing on such shoestring budgets. That said, I'm with you, chi, about being hesitant in directing funds towards them. High quality rare earth mines are rare.
    www.watoday.com.au/bus...
    16 Apr 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Ah the allure of the A$ 0.001 stock Data Motion! And for the high net worth crowd there is the A$ 0.007 Oroya Mining. So how does one get delisted from the ASX?
    16 Apr 2011, 01:53 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    There are a lot of them. In that last Lifton video, he said that there were over 200 rare earth companies with over 300 sites. This is the video where he recommends Great Western (he owns stock), Ucore (Alaska deposit), REE and Matamec.
    16 Apr 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So how does this apply to Lynas? Very well. Lynas has the best African exploration project and the richest mine in the world at Mt. Weld based on the above metrics. Lynas will also dominate processing with the largest, centralized and scalable processing plant in the world. This is already resulting in three times the tones per annum sold into long term firm contracts of their nearest competitor. In short, they should be the largest player with greater strength and stability.

     

    And braking the parts down in this way shows how Lynas' integration works perfectly. Malawi and Mt. Weld supply the LAMP better than any other processor. And the LAMP will be the most advanced concentrate extractor in the world. Not bad for a startup IMO. And believe it or not this Mammoth that will dominate it's full chain of integration is on sale today for the low low price of..... A$2.53. DYOR Just MO.

     

    (Sorry for the pump style ending on these two comments)
    15 Apr 2011, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Excellent discussion and dissection Chi!

     

    I like the way you segmented the industry and suggested evaluation using different metrics for each segment.

     

    I can't contribute anything to what you posted, of course, but I wanted to say thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The only thing wrong with investing in Lynas is the "...gets no respect" problem with the xperts, pundits, and market manipulators, who have their collective wagons hitched to MolyCorp for some reason (money, of course).

     

    An old saying: "You will know an honest, upright man by the number and quality of his enemies". Using THIS metric, Lynas is well served indeed!

     

    Thanks Chi.
    15 Apr 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi, you killed me, buddy. ;) I just got on today and saw your Lynas price...thought it in dollars and jumped into my account to start nibbling! $2.53 on our exchange would be getting closer to my buy.
    ...I realize it was the closing on ASX...just took a sec to process

     

    And are you holding to a .85/.80 buy/add target for NOURF?
    15 Apr 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I try to set buy orders under NTU to buy at a 50% retracement. I think I will be changing that to 30% retracements. I have a lot of it so that effects things.
    To start a position in NOURF I'd go up to $1.01. The thing is with the names in this one and the chip results it could leap when drill results come out. Once that happens it could be months before I'd add. The stock has great potential, but it is a long way from production. Still for such a speculative play, beyond the short Japan pullback, it has been a fairly steady rise. Some of that is based on the big names buying in so early in the story. So don't chase, but don't expect big retracements is my philosophy with this stock.
    Keep in mind I own few stocks and large positions so that effects my approach as well.
    15 Apr 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL,
    You do a great job on the TA. That's the beauty of the concentrator. I rarely comment on the TA stuff, but I am reading it. And I am thankful. Honestly, you are the only TA I read because you are so clear and consistent. Thanks always, even if I don't always write it HTL.
    15 Apr 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    As I trade I can see your frustration. But experts flip real quick when a monster quarter of earnings is becoming obvious (right now that will be Q4 or Q1. But for me I load into these stocks and get them until my broker threatens to quit my 401K for non-diversification reasons. Then I wait till the growth story plays out. But at that point I consider the train out of the station. That was my approach with Fortescue and Potash on the first run so I'm stickin' with it.

     

    So right now I think those experts are just giving us great entry points in the best fundamental RE stock in the world. Lynas will get respect with earnings. Earnings should be the sodium pentathol (truth serum) of the rare earth stock world. As long as Lynas sticks to the plan they will be the one to own long term. I don't worry about the rest too much. I think it will take care of itself.
    15 Apr 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Chi. I have core in at .60, so I won't mind buying a bit more high (bought and sold earlier this week and wish I had just held that extra block LT).
    15 Apr 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    You and I will split this pain many times my friend. When it goes up you'll wish you were more in; And when it retraces I'll wish I had traded around my core position. All I can say to myself is that I know I won't sell LYC or NTU. So if they jump I'm happy. And when they retrace I just tell myself I knew I would not sell till the story breaks down. The rest may be good money, but it's someone else's money.
    15 Apr 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY), (REMX): Whoa! S&P ASX down 0.67% and Lynas down 0.394%. 20 day SMA is A$2.30 and is parabolic now. Still a lot of ground to cover.

     

    Currency conversion gives an equivalent close at US$2.6657. The U.S. dollar stinks to high heaven now, whereas before it was only malodorous. AUD/USD = $1.0527 ATM. But today DXY is climbing from yesterday's close of $74.68 - now $74.77. WHOOPEE! 11/27/09 we were at $74.86.

     

    If OZ is now leading, we would think we would move down here. On a percentage basis, $2.699, call it $2.70. But since we closed up on a lower-volume broader intra-day range and, AFAICT, right at a rising prior support (IOW, every part of the OHLC bar is below the line *except* the close), I think we'll move down more than that.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/5.......... 4/6.......... 4/7.......... 4/8..... 4/11.... 4/12
    Last..... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.550.. 2.600.. 2.550
    $+/-..... 0.120... -0.090... -0.040...... 0.160.. 0.050.. -0.05
    Bid....... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.540.. 2.600... 2.550
    Offer.... 2.530..... 2.440..... 2.400...... 2.550.. 2.610... 2.560
    Open... 2.480..... 2.500..... 2.400..... 2.500.. 2.520... 2.660
    High..... 2.630..... 2.530..... 2.480..... 2.560.. 2.630... 2.700
    Low..... 2.480..... 2.430..... 2.370..... 2.490... 2.520... 2.540
    Vol. 52.013M 32.139M 31.777M 33.329M 30.63M 35.63M

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (REMX): Forgot to mention it. Pre-market, looks to be weakening, down 19 cents from yesterday's $28.19 close. That's below a rising trend begun at the low of 3/15 and having touches 4/12-4/14.

     

    A prior slightly shorter-term trend support was busted 4/12.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    The Latest Beauty Craze.....

     

    nymag.com/daily/fashio...
    15 Apr 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I want a dysprosium face mask! =D
    15 Apr 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    It shows that some people spend money just to get rind of it. If prices were down the consumption would not be conspicuous enough and no one would care. It's just funny and stupid how these people tie vanity and conspicuous consumption together. I shouldn't be surprised
    16 Apr 2011, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    lol...
    HT/TB: Can you give the link again (or quickest way to find) for the other insta you guys diversify the conversation? Thanks!
    15 Apr 2011, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Rain: Greetings. Here is the key to the magic kingdom of the Renegade's Quick Chat. Enjoy. seekingalpha.com/insta...
    15 Apr 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, fellas. I travel there seeking knowledge.
    15 Apr 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Bought (LYSDY) at 26.54
    15 Apr 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    User, is this adding to your core position I assume?
    I have been thinking a little bit more downside early next week...apparently you don't
    15 Apr 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    No... I sold it all on the dilution.... I have been kicking myself in the pants since then.... I wanted to get back in quick since I don't know when that ore concentrator will be announced as on-line... So I bought it higher than I wanted to just in case. My next buy target is 25.5, but I suspect the ore concentrator might have something to say about that.
    LYSDY does not seem to act like most stocks, so I need to be careful about getting too cute with it.
    15 Apr 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I feel you pain. I held most of my core from lower positions, but sold quite a bit back around 2.29...trying to be cute with the trading halt. They resumed trading a day earlier than I thought...I got left behind. Then proceeded to "get cute" again trying to make up for it and have been out of position ever since. A great argument for those buy and hold people...I just can't do it sometimes. There are some stocks you shouldn't trade. I nibbled a bit today after you...just in case. but am saving more powder for lower marks maybe next week. Long-term, it won't look as bad as it does now...
    15 Apr 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    We're all different of course, but I *force* regrets about missing a big upside to the "back burner".

     

    I can tell you that, for me from personal experience, missing that big up move is not nearly as painful as taking big losses.

     

    IMO, to focus too much (I emphasize that) on missed opportunities starts laying a path to destruction. It introduces an emotional element that may be hard to resist in your considerations.

     

    I exited Lynas at $2.18. Regret it? From an *intellectual POV, yes! But you won't hear me dwell on it much because I don't want to trap myself into making even worse decisions.

     

    I realize this may not be for everybody, but I would rather revel in the small success of exiting *with* a profit and having learned something to help me achieve that.

     

    Just an offer of my POV, not a criticism,
    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Rain, I learned something this week. Just because they halt trading in a stock in Oz, doesn't mean it doesn't get traded here on pink sheets.
    15 Apr 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    User and Rain i really wish you two had a talk to me and others in the forum becasue we would have tried our best to convince you to hold.

     

    I have talked to alot of my friends in Australia and they have done exactly the same thing as you guys selling around $2.10 to $2.20
    and basically kicked themselves and wishing to get back in. So you guys are not alone in that regard lots of people did the same thing.
    15 Apr 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    None taken, HT. Actually, you are the absolute perfect counterbalance for me at times here...and I find your comments like these invaluable and uplifting (as those POV of many of the others). Thank you truly. Just please tell me that many of you long-timers have those (now funny) hickeys and mis-steps in your history. I think all the time...did these guys make it as funny as me back then when they were first learning to invest seriously?
    17 Apr 2011, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    www.marketwatch.com/st...

     

    Interesting article
    15 Apr 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    I want in....cant decide between lynas or gwmgf for a long term hold. The 64 thousand dollar question...does anyone have a crystal ball?
    15 Apr 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Lynas, FF. You may have a brief ride down (.10-.20) but it is going to happen...good...and happen fast....and last. Can't beat that with a wiffle ball bat, eh?
    15 Apr 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    No crystal ball, just a recommendation to subscribe to John Kaiser's site first (kaiserbottomfish.com $100 for a trial membership, $800 for a year). I can't imagine investing in this sector without seeing what he has to say. You may not always agree with him, but he always offers facts to support his opinions. If you can't refute his facts, you should consider revising your own opinons. He currently makes a very persuasive case for Quest.

     

    Don't reject Quest just because of its "high" share price. What is more important than the price of one share is a company's total market capitalization (share price tines total shares outstanding). Lynas, for example has a current market cap of about $4 billion, about 16 times Quest market cap of around $500 million. Yes, Lynas is much further along toward production, but you need to decide whether Quest is more likely to reach a market cap of $1 billion before Lynas gets to $8 billion.
    15 Apr 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Why is price of one share versus total market capitalization important? I think the key is which project will work? For how much cost and how much production?
    Stocks trade on future growth and earnings. Rare earth stock are evaluated based on the likelihood of earnings and the amount of those earnings discounted to the present value of the current stock IMO.
    I can't see stocks trading on market cap. With this race to market cap targets reasoning the more the share price goes up (the more expensive the stock) the better the stock is. I would rather find undervalued stocks not chase expensive stocks. Am I missing something?
    15 Apr 2011, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    "Am I missing something?"

     

    Yep! The "herd mentality".

     

    How will you ever succeed without it? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    When it comes to mining stocks, I take the amount of market capitalization into consideration because most junior miners are starved for capital for their projects even in the best of times. There never seems to be enough of it to go around.
    One example of the common capital deficit is written up in the BusinessDay section of WaToday.com.au titled "Rare earths worth a shot for IT minnow" regarding Data Motion.
    15 Apr 2011, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Yes. I own both. I think Lynas is a lot better than GWMG. I am thinking about selling GW. Just too much talk lately. I prefer looking at Lynas construction photos versus getting the same story from GW. I'm starting to question GW management.
    15 Apr 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I beginning to wonder about management myself. Funny as I originally thought they were one of the best in class.

     

    Also, any insights as to what the monthly retainer being paid to Byron is currently buying for the company. I believe this was separate from the work done on the issuance of new shares months back. I assumed at least one of several things would be announced (ie a listing a new exchange etc). What if anything is Byron working on?

     

    Thanks. Matt
    15 Apr 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    $60K monthly through share issuance.

     

    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...

     

    Byron will help GW in various related financial, acquisition, ... opportunity identification etc.

     

    www.gwmg.ca/html/media...

     

    Total payment amount is limited to $320K in installments as share issuance. So, Byron has a vested interest in getting GW share price off the dime. Of course, not having read all the details, I guess Byron could do nothing, collect and sell the shares.

     

    Wouldn't be a good move for them though, I think.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    HardToLove,
    You are good at tech. analysis... what is your take on the Bollinger band action on the daily on GWMGF? It seems to me they are tightening and a move is coming. Of course, it better be up but it appears as if there is a lot of energy stored there.
    Your thoughts? tx.
    15 Apr 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    "You are good at tech. analysis"

     

    That's not so! I'm *new* and trying hard and still learning much (hopefully). To assume that I'm good just because I share what I can in hope of both learning and contributing would be a mistake.

     

    "what is your take on the Bollinger band action on the daily on GWMGF? It seems to me they are tightening and a move is coming. Of course, it better be up but it appears as if there is a lot of energy stored there.
    Your thoughts? tx. "

     

    Most of my considerations don't focus on Bollingers, they are, for me, a short term indicator used as an adjunct to ... "heavier" indicators.

     

    Having said that, on highly liquid stocks they have a lot of use as indicators of near-term statistical extremes being approached. And as such, many folks (and computer programs?) react to them on the assumption that a reversion to a more central price position and action is likely.

     

    I think user could give a much better explanation of this than I.

     

    For a relatively thinly traded stock, such as (GWMGF), I look at Bollingers only as a confirmation of what I think I already (do or don't) know, because of the way I watch it like a (Chi)hawk! :-))

     

    For some recent insight into this, here's a little insta I worked up in the past few weeks. It is ready for an update as there has been a relatively significant change in the characteristics of what's shown in the insta. The prognostication may be the same (unsure until I do the update).

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Again, it is in need of an update, so be critical of it.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here is another view on Great Western sure to generate controversy.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    15 Apr 2011, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    dallasmatt,
    The monthly retainer is for consulting. I understand it to be separate from share issuance. I'd consider it a paid pumping fee. I think it is unclear and unnecessary for a company with a lot on it's plate.
    Better to focus our funds on the project and have management tell the story IMO. I really do find it frustrating to see more and more internet story telling and little apparent progress over the last several months since Steen was purchased from Rareco in November.
    15 Apr 2011, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Better to watch like a regular hawk. A chihawk sees Rorschach drawings when he does technical analysis.
    15 Apr 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    You mean all those "dirty pictures"? ;-))

     

    Old joke - if you've not heard it, PM me and I'll send you the old joke.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi,,,cannot decide if I am wanting to add NOURF today >1...likely 1.05 to get it
    15 Apr 2011, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    I hope you didn't do $1.05. It would make money long term. But that would be the top of the move. I like the stock but it is a long way from production. I'd like to see you get in at a better price next week. Watch the ASX close on NTU, do the currency converter, and try to get a little under that price would be my advice. Then get more and more selective with your adds as you go. Remember that NOURF trades real thin. Some days it does not trade, so you have to get it as an investment IMO. And you have to be patient with your orders when you do trade it.
    15 Apr 2011, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Rain In my Humble Opinion, Be patient and zen like and when the opportunity arises and people panic DRAGON FIST AND TIGER CLAW!!!
    15 Apr 2011, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I did not, guys. Thanks. I need these reminders. My partial error on Lynas had me frustrated and a l bit out of sorts...sometimes one bad move leads to others I know. I will be still...and quiet. shhhhhh...

     

    ....Then bust out with the mad kung-fu action, Omg!!
    17 Apr 2011, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Love it. Needless to say, you can imagine what I did about a week after 911... Or the week we invaded Iraq...

     

    Geopolitical spasms are usually investment opps.
    18 Apr 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    UP 10% in OZ yesterday with others down...may indicate run next week and may not get in <1 to add
    15 Apr 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    set buy prog for Arafura @ 1.29
    15 Apr 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chi, the reason I focus on market cap versus the price of one share is that the market cap reflects the market's estimated value for the entire project. The market doesn't "trade on market cap", instead the market cap simply reflects the market's current estimate of value for the company.The larger the market cap, the larger the estimated value that is already reflected in the share price. For a Quest share to go up 10%, the market is saying the estimated value of the company has gone up around $50 million. For a share of Lynas to go up 10%, the market is saying the estimated value of the whole project has gone up around $400 million. If the two companies were cars, I agree that Lynas currently has a much more powerful engine, but it also has to go a lot further (in terms of building value) just to keep up with Quest in terms of share price growth. I'm not knocking Lynas; a lot of participants on this board have made a lot of money with it. (I even made some myself riding it from around $1.30 to $2.)It is just that taking a look at where the two companies are currently, it is my personal preference to go with the smaller company that I think has a better potential to rise, and less risk to fall. But that is what makes horse races, and we are all currently betting on a race that is likely to last for several years.
    15 Apr 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    I respect your point about the share count and value of each project. And while a smaller stock will give Beta for a trade. I still think risk and reward are best measured by fundamentals. Rare earth stock fundamentals are evaluated based on the likelihood of earnings and the amount of those earnings discounted to the present value of the current stock IMO. This will give a much better view of risk/reward then the beta for a small project that will be whipped by sentiment. I think you are measuring volatility, not risk/reward.
    15 Apr 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I have been very lukewarm about GWMGF. My cost basis is in the .30 - .40 range. My gut feeling is that the stock will stay in this range (0.81) or sputter a bit for who knows how long. Kaiser is not impressed with it.

     

    I'm just not sure is it better to keep it as a long term hold like I have.
    Or should I put that money towards something with potentially better prospects,
    ie. NTU, QSURF,..?

     

    I do respect that for a long time, GWMGF stayed in the .20 -.30 cent range for over a year and then shot up fairly quickly. So I'm just not sure if I should just be patient, or bail due to many factors.

     

    Any opinions?

     

    Long: Lyscf, Gwmgf, Qsurf, Avl, Tasxf, Mtcef, Emmcf, Ree
    15 Apr 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    IMHO, it's never wrong to take (some?) profits. With a double in hand, you can sell half and let the rest ride for free.

     

    Or, considering opportunity cost, sell it all and have a double in hand?

     

    If and when GWM starts to exhibit more upward momentum, you can re-enter and make a little more.

     

    As I posted above, I think "missed profits" are not to be regretted.

     

    Others will see it differently.

     

    My final consideration is risk vs. reward. As long as you hold it you expose yourself to the risk of losing what you have gained. Selling part or all reduces the risk and gives you another opportunity.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Apr 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton seems to still like GWM, but he doesn't address the lack of movement by GWM to get moving.

     

    watch.bnn.ca/#clip448938

     

    HardToLove
    16 Apr 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Seemed to me in a recent interview, he said he didn't own it (GW) anymore, but in his most recent appearance, it said that he did.
    16 Apr 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I saw that Jack sold awhile back and it appears that he has re-entered GWM. I can only presume that this is good news since he is in the know. I particularly liked the part in the bnn interview about the defense contractors having interest. I can also presume that GWM shares price must be frustrating to say the least to GWM management compared to MCPs. I emailed a bit back and forth with the IR department and they are aware of shareholder frustration but that they wanted to do it right. They could make some stupid move I guess to get the share price to pop and then quickly fall. I think they would rather have the real deal. I am frustrated too but I will continue to hold since I am sure that when I sell, the very next morning they will announce a fabulous partnership and listing on the amex and free dysprosium for shareholders....
    (true story: I sold Potash the evening before the announced the bid by BHP ... that was a hard day to take)
    Once GWM gets on traders radars like REE then the share price will not look back. I just hope I am still alive to see that... haha.
    Actually, I feel it is going to be soon though. The share price has had every reason to fall right back down and in my opinion it has held up pretty well. So I still feel good.
    16 Apr 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Lifton has been impressing me more lately. I think I am starting to understand him better. He does have knowledge, but he also is focused by his politics. Nothing wrong with that its just important to see how that matters to him. He truly wants the US to have US sources of rare earths. And he wants this industry to support American jobs. He knows that means accepting Canadian companies like Ucore and GW that have US sources and operations. But he is America first perhaps with a protectionist stripe in him. Not my politics, but fair enough.
    But I think when he speaks about Ucore and REE he is supporting his politics and congressional testimony to some extent. Not to say he does not believe his own words. But I think his political views focus his stock picking. That's no knock. I'd say the same is true of myself regarding Russian stocks for example.
    But owning GW and liking Matamec is impressive. Jack has been in and out of GW and has been a paid consultant for them. So it is nice that he likes them, but not a big surprise. Matamec is outside Jack's views, so he must see some real fundamentals. Zeus' 0.24 TREO wt% deos not excite me. But there is still a lot of drilling to do and Kipawa is a large area. Perhaps the best areas remain to drill? But I think Jack's interest seems supportive of Zeus' metalurgy IMO. So it's worth a look.
    I do not own this stock but I will be researching it further at this point.
    16 Apr 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I agree on the fixation of American REE source but what struck me is that he was long GW then he had no position and now is long again. And he has disclosed no other long positions. So whether a paid consultant or not, he seems to have put his own money on the line. Inferring a lot, I took it as he thinks (knows?) good news is coming. He also was emphatic that the defense industry is now interested in the REE space (as of a few months or something like that) so maybe that will be the partner for GW.
    16 Apr 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree aqwert.
    But I would not want to overstate the point. Jack was not impressed with the Silmet purchase based on his article. It not only offended his views, but I think it increased his doubts about Phoenix processing. If I'm right that would make GW processing that much more important to the industry and to his views/future congressional testimony. Either way it is GW supportive IMO. But saying he has insider knowledge about GW's future is overstating IMO. I'd want some big director buying before I'd draw that conclusion.
    16 Apr 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    to me, it is easy to lose patience with a stock and sell it -- only to watch is zoom by you when you are not in. Kinda like changing lanes on a highway... the one that was going faster and you zip in always seems to come to an abrupt halt.
    I am sure that others will speak to GWM in the specific. I am just speaking of trader psychology.
    15 Apr 2011, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    For a little history and nostalgia. Plus, a whole lot of respect, this is the article that got me into Lynas Corp. May Jim Kingsdale rest in peace! I will not comment on what the price of LYSCF was at that time. I'm sure the "old" gades remember me pumping the stock long ago. :) Thank you Mr. Kingsdale, I miss your website and posts!
    For me this is what started it all! Thanks everyone for all the insight you bring here.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    15 Apr 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.smh.com.au/busines...

     

    Please scroll to the middle of the article about the Lynas forge deal
    15 Apr 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Obvious and logical. If the REE component of Mount Weld is worth $3billion (despite the best efforts of major market manipulators to push down the price), might the Crown Deposit be worth something similar in the near future?

     

    If Lynas wants to quiet the furor, all they need do is open the bidding to anyone who has the money to buy a seat at the table...

     

    As the author points out, they did not do that. My vote is a resounding "no". Period.
    15 Apr 2011, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    www.freemalaysiatoday..../
    15 Apr 2011, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Sorry...Had to play a bit of the devils advocate....Im long on Lynas in my retirement account...Has anyone researched any of the dreaded environmental resistance from malaysia....
    15 Apr 2011, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    There is resistance to the mining waste in Australia as well as Malaysia. Meanwhile the two countries are working on a free trade agreement.
    www.themalaysianinside.../
    www.dfat.gov.au/fta/am...
    15 Apr 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks VB!
    16 Apr 2011, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Information is slim about the rare earth findings in Utah.
    www.marketwire.com/pre...
    resourceclips.com/comp...
    16 Apr 2011, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    A recent discussion of IAALF and uranium at

     

    watch.bnn.ca/#clip448937
    16 Apr 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Let's keep in mind that on 4/29 the OZ and NZ Lynas shareholders get to buy a bunch of shares at A$2.07, or lower if the average price is less.

     

    So with MS et al holding a bunch (maybe some for themselves and some for their clients), how do they manipulate this in their favor.

     

    Run it up big time, buy at $2.07, and dump?

     

    Or run it down big time, buy it lower and hold?

     

    I'm curious about the thinking on this as it seems a "wunnerful" opportunity for the big money to do something untoward.

     

    And let us not forget the ratings by C, JPM, et al. And Mt. Weld (again) possibly coming on-line EOM.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Apr 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Good questions HT!! I dont have much experience at this. But I would say they buy a lot of it at that price and some dump but most hold. So what would that do to the current market price?
    16 Apr 2011, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    This article discusses some possible effects of expected slow-down of wind power installations in China as their NEA assumes permitting authority ofr smaller projcts that were formerly left to local jurisdiction.

     

    The tilte is really misleading, implying its all about REE producer adjutsment to that, but very little is actually said about that.

     

    Chi, you've read this already.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    www.dailymail.co.uk/ho...
    17 Apr 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    'Shareholders threaten action over Lynas sale'

     

    www.smh.com.au/busines...
    17 Apr 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Excellent find and I think, under the circumstances, a proper action by those wanting to more fully explore the deal.

     

    Thanks to the diligence of Chihawk and others, I've also become convinced that a sounder basis for valuation is warranted.

     

    With the revenues that could be expected over the next couple of years from Mt. Weld, if prices of REOs hold up, and the LAMP (if it can overcome the environmental concerns and come on-line anywhere near current schedule), additional exploratory sampling, evaluation and preliminary cost estimates for bringing Crown to production at a reasonably detailed level should have no problem being funded from FCF and/or LOCs.

     

    I congratulate Chihawk on being out front on the issue.

     

    Now, does all this give us an opportunity to find an attractive add or (re)entry price? Not that I'm unabashedly mercenary here, but it is "my job" now.

     

    Thoughts?

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    I'm in agreement regarding the problems with the sale (and also give my thanks to those who did the hard work of making sense of it). Too early to really tell, but I'm getting quite hopeful that the sale won't go through (although it will be pretty funny if the blocking of a bad sale hurts the share price!).
    As Rain has said below, the ASX is making things clearer: I expect a further move down. I think chihawk is right in looking for US$2.3x or even US$2.2x.
    Maybe, just maybe, this means that the big boys (or 'the Boyz' as I think TB says) have to move toward plan B that you mentioned above: "run it down big time, buy it lower and hold." In which case, get that powder ready!
    17 Apr 2011, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL!
    I might as well put my neck out that much further. The Crown fight could hurt the share price short term. But long term this is very bullish. Crown is worth WAY more than $20 million plus. Even in ground values could go to billions with a B. These firms in their fight should bring in further experts to establish that. I never tracked an analyst that attached a value to Crown prior to the sale issue. So if analysts end up putting Crown into their NPV for Lynas they will have to do big price raises to their estimates IMO.
    17 Apr 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    I look at it as bullish in another regard too: respect for the shareholders. Regardless of the man's regard, he now holds a position of responsibility to others that he may not have properly appreciated.

     

    The turmoil that is arising from this may be a lesson on the way to maturation into a carrier of great responsibility to other than himself. Leaving behind the (im)morality garnered in the IB business seems to me to be a necessay step in that direction.

     

    If he gets chastised by the shareholders and stock price for this attempt, it should leave an indelible impression on his psyche and help him make better judgments in the future.

     

    And, OMG may get that opportunity he's been awaiting.

     

    And me too!

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2011, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (NOURF), NTU on the ASX

     

    Quarterly Cash Flow Report (PDF):

     

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

     

    Quarterly Activities Report (PDF):

     

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I guess threatened legal action through your attorneys is, in actuality, legal action.

     

    I see the options exercised announced formally...Apr. 14? How'd I miss that?

     

    These items aside...I think HT makes great points to consider re: Lynas and manipulation possibilities. I think it safe to say the greedy fatties will look to squeeze out a bit more through some type of manipulation at this juncture...after all : that's who they are and what they do. So, what is our best educated guess in reference to the opinions/options HT posed?
    17 Apr 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), LYSDY): An hour into the market, 4.707M traded, high A$2.54, low A$2.46, now $2.48. Contrast to U.S. trading Friday which had a narrow range.

     

    The recent trend line in the U.S market was saying we ought to be heading down but the chart has said it so often recently while the market action just ignored all that.

     

    We'll see how it ends up in the morning.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2011, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Picture getting clearer. Lynas down .11 @ 2.42 down under. I find myself wanting to celebrate??? Ahhh, many a twist and turns in this grand adventure.

     

    The only one we follow which is up is NTU...and I doubt it lasts.
    17 Apr 2011, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Sorry guys...I know I am monopolizing the concentrator. If you are in ALKEF at high prices or ready to take profits...you may wish to take them quick. Biting down REAL hard at -.26 to 2.37 currently down under.

     

    I have been watching OZ tonight and this has me wondering. Everything but Lynas was up...once time for Lynas news to digest in A.M. Day old options exercise posted and the legal action news and then you see Alkane tanking. Wonder if there was any truth to the Alkane/Lynas rumours?
    17 Apr 2011, 10:11 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    New Mt. Weld comp. price: US$160.32.

     

    www.lynascorp.com/page...
    17 Apr 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Rain...Im hoping lynas drops as well...so I can get in....
    17 Apr 2011, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (NOURF): After reading the PDF with the HREEs %, I think I'm in love.

     

    Is this just infatuation or the real thing?

     

    I know Chi and others like it. But it being in the pure exploratory and evaluation stage, I wonder if it's not a bit early to take more than a starter position. I assume that we're looking at least a couple of years before any of that can become revenue stream just by selling REOs. And that assumes a plant that can handle their particular chemistry?

     

    I'm hittin' the hay! See you all in the A.M.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2011, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, NTU is closing high, selling larger lots of shares, increasing volume and has started drilling.

     

    Here is some info from the prior NTU quarterly with some comments from a mineralogist blogger:
    Huge extension of mineralisation; the soil sampling contours (100ppm and 200ppm lines) only give an indication of a hidden deposit. These low numbers are not grades of the ore!!! The ore will have grades between 1 and 10% TREO may be more.
    As expected upgrading of the ore by flotation is very successful:
    Samples from outcrops of some kg have been ground to a grainsize distribution of 80% passing 0,106 mm sieve and the whole feed ore has been enriched by flotation to 32,8%TREO (including 5,10% Y2O3) resembling a recovery rate of 89,5%!
    In a second step said concentrate has been upgraded to 50,9% TREO (including 11,18% Y2O3)resembling a final recovery rate of 93,8%!
    The host rock is a sandstone enriched in feldspar which is expected favorable for disintegration processes (energy saving).
    IMHO a noteworthy world scale deposit for hREE is detected and will be developed on the background of well understood processing steps. Because of the phosphate nature of the anion (Xenotime) NTU would be the ideal partner for Arafura Resources to produce PhosAcid as byproduct.
    GL
    RMINCONSULT

     

    Current presentation cliams recovery rate of 89% (I think that is first step).
    18 Apr 2011, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Chi!

     

    Keeping in mind your earlier comments, I'll be looking for a good (NOURF) entry point to start building a position. I think I'll pair it with (ARAFF) too.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It looks like there could be a number of possibilities for NTU for joint venturing about phosphate. NTU's phosphate ought to help the firm's bottom line as time goes by, perhaps providing a cash flow for developing the rare earth holdings.
    www.australian-phospha...
    18 Apr 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    (April 18, 2011) Molycorp buys rare earth metal, alloy maker
    From: Reuters

     

    Molycorp (MCP) said on Monday that it had bought rare earth metal and alloy maker Santoku America Inc, as it looks to expand into the more valuable magnet market.

     

    Rare earth miner Molycorp said it bought the Arizona-based division of Japan's Santoku Corporation in an all-cash deal for $17.5 million. The deal closed on Friday.
    With the deal, Molycorp will immediately start producing the rare earth alloys needed to make rare earth magnets which are essential to a technology applications like hybrid cars, wind turbines and smartphones.

     

    "We are very pleased with this acquisition," said Molycorp Chief Executive Mark Smith in a release. "It ... accelerates our plans to deploy a fully integrated 'mine-to-magnets' manufacturing supply chain in the U.S." tinyurl.com/3hdeuhk
    18 Apr 2011, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was waiting to see if they would go this path, and they have. Combined with Silmet, Santoku's facilities finish the cycle. They are buying tiny operations which WILL yield a "mine to magnet" result to fulfill their pledge to investors...

     

    Except at a capacity level which will struggle to hit 3 tons a year.

     

    Hardly the 44kmt they were trumpeting a few months back.

     

    Now we will see whether the lilliputian reality will be amplified by the MSM into a gigantic headline. So far, this has happened like clockwork, but I still find it hard to believe.
    18 Apr 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Great comment TB.
    Moly will be mine to magnet so through acquisition they will make one of their main promises. But how the synergies and expansion will work is a big question.

     

    Presumably they will mine Mountain Pass, and ship the ore or concentrate to Estonia. Then they will have Silmet make it into oxides (the lighter rare earths only). Then Silmet will ship the oxides to their Japan/Arizona based group to make magnets.

     

    The acquisition gives Moly some much needed credibility, but this has gaps and questions. There is now a lot of extra costs in their production cycle. Smith (no great leader IMO) will have to stream line this operation to really capture margins. Also Silmet does not produce beyond the didynium level. So where does the neodynium and dysprosium oxide for magnets come from? Will this be developed at Silmet or will it be a cost?

     

    Overall, this looks like a bankers plan and little more. Even when acquisitions look good, only a few work. These give minimal direction and no corporate culture or identity to MCP. I'd say they become too fragmented. And at this point, where does this leave Phoenix? Will they tell us they will integrate these global operations for synergies and build a 40,000tpa producing mine simultaneously? And how does Silmet and this magnet maker fit into a 40,000tpa model? Hard to believe even the Molydogs will buy all of this. But I guess they do.
    18 Apr 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Was I clairvoyant or what? lol.
    seekingalpha.com/searc...
    18 Apr 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You were right. I had seen the same possiblity, but its like mating a chihuaha to a mastadon, with proviso's and "but's" at every step.
    18 Apr 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Or the in crowd fraternity house inviting the nerds to get in on the fun.
    18 Apr 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Nice visual TB.
    Great to give the zoological and archeological crowd a little concentrator entertainment.
    In an effort to widen my views let me try to see this from Moly's side:
    If the Phoenix Project works they will end up with 40,000tpa of rare earths. This could then lead to an expansion of the Arizona facility into larger magnet production. This would indeed be a money maker will full integration and large operations. Maybe they acquire a heavy rare earth mine or a concentrate deal to get the dysprosium?

     

    Then Silmet would be converted to rare earth metals only (niobium and tantalum) which could be supplied by buying Pacific Wildcat perhaps. This business would be a nice compliment to the Arizona/Mountain Pass operations as the products do compliment each other in their uses.

     

    IMHO, its a long shot that relies on further acquisitions and has no current organic achievements. But the payoff could be big. The trouble is this sort of thing has rarely worked in prior history. And at this price you need a lot of this to happen in order to justify the current pre-production stock price.

     

    With all that is going on here I have to believe a delay in Phoenix and a price drop are likely. For those interested, I'd wait for that entry point. From my own perspective, I'll stay away. I think the approach is a long shot and the management does not have the skills to pull this off. Good luck all.
    18 Apr 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Note that being able to produce "the rare earth alloys needed to make rare earth magnets" is not the same thing as producing the magnets themselves.
    18 Apr 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps the situation is the other way around from what we might think. Maybe the magnet manufacturers are buying stock in Molycorp, thereby helping to maintain a floor in the stock price. Molycorp has a joint venture with one of them, Arnold Magnetic Technologies.
    www.businesswire.com/n...
    18 Apr 2011, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    General Electric (GE) is also a big player in the Molycorp (MCP) story.
    19 Apr 2011, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    There were discussions about a joint venture quite some time ago (before the announced intent to do a JV with Hitachi Metals), but to my knowledge nothing was ever firmed up, especially once it appeared that Hitachi would not give an Nd-Fe-B manufacturing license to Arnold.
    20 Apr 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    That is an interesting insight since it is not apparent from reading Arnold's news releases dated after the joint venture announcement of July 2009. There will be twists and turns to the mines to magnets story as it evolves, I'm sure.
    20 Apr 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some of Hitachi's primary magnet patents are getting very long in the tooth, set to expire about the time MCP might actually start producing from the new facility they plan to build.
    20 Apr 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how much production they got for 17.5M? Is it meaningful or just a PR flyer?
    18 Apr 2011, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Same question. A) Why hasn't in the thousands of posts, blogs etc, this company ever been mentioned, and B) at the relatively in small cost of 17Mil in this hot industry you have to wonder why wasn't this subsidiary sold a significant higher multiple?

     

    Regardless, I am sure Moly stock will be flying high once again.

     

    CNBC Link:

     

    www.cnbc.com/id/42640069

     

    Best,
    Matt
    18 Apr 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Some Research on Santoku America:

     

    Santoku America is the only US producer of NdFeB alloys (neodymium).

     

    I searched and searched for information concerning their production capacity, and came up empty, so I took a different approach.

     

    Some time back I researched GWMs purchase of "Less Common Metals". They purchased that in 2008 for about 7.8M Canadian. At that time the plants production capacity was approximately 1,100 tons per annum of Rare Earth metals. tinyurl.com/39ctmk

     

    So back of envelope rough estimate - assuming a similar currency conversion factor that's about 8M US. Ignoring inflation, this suggests that the production capacity of Santoku America is about 2,200 tons per annum.

     

    I conclude the acquisition was brilliant. Santoku's facilities are located in Tolleson, Arizona, relatively close to MCPs mine. This purchase allows MCP to fulfill some of their mine to magnets contractual production requirements.

     

    The next question concerns what happens when MCPs rare earth concentrate stockpile runs out? I doubt Santoku can take raw rare earths, so MCP must get their new rare earths concentration plant up and running ASAP. That is their next big milestone.
    18 Apr 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Yes, we don't know what MCP got for their 17M. I did some back of the envelope calculations and figured they got about 2k tons of production capacity per year...

     

    But your point about a higher multiple makes a lot of sense... I looked at some pictures on Santoku America's web site and got the impression that it was a small facility... Knowing MCPs position, I would think Santoku would extract a premium price... perhaps a multiple of 2 which would put Santoku's production capacity at about 1K ton per year.

     

    As to how its been missed - I don't see a stock symbol for it. The first time I saw it mentioned was in one line in the Congressional Research Service's report: Rare Earth Elements in National Defense: Background, Oversight Issues, and Options for Congress tinyurl.com/3wvavx7
    18 Apr 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Some of the other specialty alloy manufacturers might be considering contracting with Molycorp at the right price as time goes by.
    www.rareearth.org/magn...
    18 Apr 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Magnetic Materials Association has a keen interest in the availability of rare earths. I'm sure Molycorp networks with their membership about this topic.
    www.usmagneticmaterial.../
    hankjohnson.house.gov/...
    18 Apr 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY), (REMX): S&P ASX up 9.12% and Lynas on the ASX down -2.77%. With volume on the down move being higher than the prior two days and pps now below a rising support and a falling resistance since 4/11 seeming to cap the upside, I think we'll finally seem some correction to fill some of the numerous gaps we've left behind us in the U.S. market.

     

    Currency conversion would give us a US$2.5885 price. An equivalent % move would put us at $2.567.

     

    REMX looks to be rolling over as well and the pre-market view on Basic Materials sector is -0.46% with the metal mining industry down 0.25%.

     

    All in all, looks to be a nasty day in the REE space.

     

    With the two most recent gaps filled, I expect we'll see a prior potential resistance and gap combination offer the first potential pause as support at $2.56 down through $2.35. I don't list each as there are about 6 potential points in that range consisting of gaps and highs and lows.

     

    Cautiously, I suspect that we make a big move down because we've had a very long and large run up with no break and the sentiment should be getting influence from the Malaysian and Crown concerns right now. With Mt. Weld at least two weeks off, I don't think folks will have confidence enough to hold price up here for the next week or two. And the OZ environmental approval might take a bit longer as well, so I would think that Mt. weld might be moved out a bit more yet.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15....... 4/18
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530..... 2.460
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010.. -0.070
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530..... 2.460
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540..... 2.480
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570..... 2.520
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590..... 2.540
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510..... 2.410
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M 28.973M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/5.......... 4/6.......... 4/7.......... 4/8..... 4/11.... 4/12
    Last..... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.550.. 2.600.. 2.550
    $+/-..... 0.120... -0.090... -0.040...... 0.160.. 0.050.. -0.05
    Bid....... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.540.. 2.600... 2.550
    Offer.... 2.530..... 2.440..... 2.400...... 2.550.. 2.610... 2.560
    Open... 2.480..... 2.500..... 2.400..... 2.500.. 2.520... 2.660
    High..... 2.630..... 2.530..... 2.480..... 2.560.. 2.630... 2.700
    Low..... 2.480..... 2.430..... 2.370..... 2.490... 2.520... 2.540
    Vol. 52.013M 32.139M 31.777M 33.329M 30.63M 35.63M

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Molycorp Acquires Rare Earth Metal and Alloy Manufacturer Santoku America, Inc.

     

    "... acquired Arizona-based Santoku America, Inc. (SAI), one of the leading producers of high-purity rare earth alloys and metals outside of China, in an all-cash deal for $17.5 million. The transaction closed on Friday, April 15..."

     

    "... provides Molycorp with the capability to immediately begin manufacturing and selling rare earth alloys for the production of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets (used in electric and hybrid cars, advanced wind energy turbines, and many high tech electronics and applications) and samarium cobalt (SmCo) magnets (used in defense and other applications), as well as a variety of other specialty alloys and products. SAI will immediately begin sourcing rare earth feed stocks for production of its products from Molycorp’s Mountain Pass, California rare earth mine and processing facility, making it the first rare earth metal and alloy producer in North America that is not dependent on rare earth materials sourced from China. Based in Tolleson, Arizona, the facility has been producing specialty alloys, including rare earth alloys, for more than 30 years. The employees there are highly experienced and skilled in the production of rare earth and specialty alloys".

     

    There's a name change and more stuff.

     

    www.businesswire.com/n...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Sorry for the dupe of User's post. The failure of Seeking Alpha software to ever flag his comment bit me.

     

    <*sigh*> I've reported it twice in the past, many months ago.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Couple of things:

     

    I have moved my Arufura buy target to 1.19 and will watch closely to make sure it gets there.

     

    I am seloling Alkane and Galaxy today short-term as my entries were too high.

     

    We all seem to agree NTU is building strength. One of the reasons I even considered adding to my NOURF position at 1.03-1.05 is watching the way the REEs have moved in OZ lately and anticipation that - if this stock gets viewed differently and thrust into a new trading orbit (like Alkane) a few cents per share when you are already in low won't matter. Is anyone changing their opinion on an add point for Northern. Do we believe it will see <1 again? I am neither certain....nor uncertain!
    18 Apr 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    OK boys the news on Bloomberg is out. I expect the long waited top up opportunities for LYNAS , NOURF IS COMMING!
    18 Apr 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Wow...truly ugly ugly day. Red all over...nearly.

     

    I am not in love with UCore. Anyone have an updated opinion of it mostyl short-term. My intent has been to sell it next time it tries to run to 1.2x....today at .81 - still above GW - who I too am growing impatient with.
    18 Apr 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Ucore and GW is taking a hit on the Moly buy of Santoku. The acquisition takes the takeover prospects out of GW and Ucore to a lesser extent. I would not sell GW at this price IMO. I never wanted GW to get taken over by Moly so selling now does not make sense for me.
    18 Apr 2011, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would not have minded a takeover at the price level I anticipated ($2+)... Obvious that MCP is bottomfishing and playing mindgames with their investors. Promising a 2012 Ferrari, delivering a 1968 Trabant.
    18 Apr 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    in a weird way, doesn't this make GW more valuable in the long run because in order to compete with MCP someone is going to have to have that end run technology? (note: I am not selling but buying more here but I am really long and really biased at this point)
    18 Apr 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    ANGRY shareholders will move for a court injunction and launch a counterbid if Lynas does not call off the contentious sale of a rich rare earths and metals deposit to a related party.

     

    Bob Watson, the chairman of the online recruitment site Seek, has joined Mark Suhr, a Melbourne businessman and fellow Lynas shareholder, to fight the proposed $20.7 million sale of the rare earth miner's Crown polymetallic deposit to Forge Resources........

     

    Read more: www.smh.com.au/busines...
    18 Apr 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi, you have a new buy/add target for Northern?
    18 Apr 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm moving my target up. Will watch the ASX and see if it stays up even with the negative lead from Wall St.. If it falls to A$1.01 I'll buy some. I would not buy NOURF today. I'd see it dip on the ASX and then go a penny or two under the currency converted price for an entry bid. I may just wait. I have a lot of it and I might wait and hope for A$0.98 at this point. But where ever you buy you will do well if this story holds up. Just remember we are a long way from production, there will be time. If you are too anxious just buy when it hits the lower Bollinger band or the 50 day MA. HTL is a big help with that.
    18 Apr 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Block trade went off @ 14:04, 219,500 @$2.48.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Somebody must be trying to get out of Lynas and Northern on the ASX and wanting to see if they can gt a better price.

     

    LYC ask A$1.975 and bid A$2.80 (marked up, earlier was $2.60)
    Northern ask A$0.95 and bid A$1.065.

     

    "Painting the tape" about 1/2 hour before open to get potential buyers worring about being left behind?

     

    HardToLove
    18 Apr 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    HT....Please elaborate
    18 Apr 2011, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    www.google.com/search?...

     

    Just one of many forms of manipulation.

     

    Another one - I forget what it's called - can be seen many days on stocks such as CPST. In this case a *very* large number of bids are put in on both the bid and ask side that show on level 2 NBBO (National Best Bid Offer) with a *very* small spread. E.g. 400K share bid and 400K share ask at, say, $1.29/$1.30. The prices don't move and all trades are very small and very low volume.

     

    Oh yeah! This is called "pinning", IIRC. The price is "pinned" so that anyone that wants to have a hope of buying or selling is constrained to selling at the bid or buying at the ask. If they try to enter a limit bid or offer at any other price they end up never getting filled because they are at the end of a very llllooooonnnnnnggggg queue ahead of them.

     

    A variation on this has a similar situation but there is a very large imbalance. But the trades are all very small and very low volume and go off in the wrong direction - i.e. 400K offered at $1.30 70k bid at $1.29 but all the sales are 100 shares at $1.30. This is the market maker setting the stage to fill some favored customer (may be themselves) need.

     

    There are so many other things done - I suggest using google and maybe "market manipulation" as a starting point.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2011, 05:18 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Its 3 am here and Lynas appears to be down another 7 percent. TIme to get in....yet?
    19 Apr 2011, 06:31 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    You mean that stock I rushed in to buy last week is worth less now?

     

    ;-(

     

    Another week or two and I'll be okay again.
    19 Apr 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Wait, FF
    19 Apr 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Consolidated International Investment holdings inc. acquired 200,000 shares in the public market , of Metamec on 4/15/11
    19 Apr 2011, 06:41 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    They invested in slam( along with pinetree, who has been buying large shares of metamec) SLMXF: TSXV
    19 Apr 2011, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF(, (LYSDY): Bad ju-ju on the S&P ASX last evening, down 1.44%, and Lynas down 6.9% (-A$0.17) on the highest volume seen in 11 days. The 20 day SMA, ~A$2.34, has been intersected and it seems that a substantial overshoot is in progress.

     

    As you may recall, in the U.S. LYSCF tanked 12 cents yesterday, larger than the prior night's move on the ASX of 7 cents down. That was a move 71% greater than what happened on the ASX. Let's hope we don't repeat that magnitude - that would put us down today 30 cents to $2.22. I don't think that's likely, as noted below.

     

    With a minor strengthening of the dollar on yesterday's S&P warning of a downgrade of the U.S. (supposedly because that makes the markets think the government will be forced to "do the right thing" - ROTFLMAO!), at least the currency converted price won't look quite as bad ...

     

    Currency conversion would give us a US$2.4039, down only 12 cents. I believe that number will be a memory if the charts are any indication - a very real concern since a downturn has been indicated for ... what? 2-3 weeks? And it didn't start until last week.

     

    As you may recall, I was looking for us to start to fill the $2.38/$2.45 gap last Thursday. Well, being way too early is the same as being wrong, but here we are. Looks like it may get filled, and more, today.

     

    The U.S. pps is below the 10 day SMA and yesterday bottomed at $2.45, right at the top of our gap and very near the 20 day SMA, $2.43. The 50 day SMA is way down at $2.15 as of yesterday's close, so we can't look at it for any support right now.

     

    Yesterday we moved down 12 cents on high volume, 2.67M which is 47.5% higher than the 25 day average and 228% of the prior three day average. This should indicate a strong bias to continue down. Normally a large spike like this might indicate an end to the trend. But with the move having just started and technical indicators weakening and the ASX action and the worries about Malaysia and shareholder lawsuits over the "(Thomas) Crown Affair", I can't see this volume indicating an end.

     

    I see it as meaning check your oxygen supply because we're going deeper.

     

    We've got potential supports at $2.38, the gap bottom, $2.35, the high of 3/3 and $2.31, a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace using the range of $1.46-$2.84.

     

    So in spite of what happened on the ASX last evening, I can't see us going to $2.22 today. Even a $2.31 would be a large move, -$0.21 from the close. I expect to see some buying come in around that $2.35 level, so I'm guesstimating we ought to hang in somewhere around that point as the low. That's still a hefty move, -17 cents, so I may be too pessimistic on that. The gap bottom might be the low.

     

    I am expecting this move down to be somewhat extended, with all the issues and the long run up we've had. Of course this might be a good time for the banksters to finish up their buys and issue an upgrade in the next week or so.

     

    But looking a slightly wider context, the whole market was red yesterday and what we saw in Lynas may have been the effects of being dragged along with the overall market, as we saw similar effects with (GWMGF) and (REMX) and others. So if the market is more stable today, the moves may be much smaller than what the charts indicate right now.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15....... 4/18....... 4/19
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010.. -0.070... -0.170
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540..... 2.480..... 2.300
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570..... 2.520..... 2.350
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590..... 2.540..... 2.390
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510..... 2.410..... 2.290
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M 28.973M 40.520M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/5.......... 4/6.......... 4/7.......... 4/8..... 4/11.... 4/12
    Last..... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.550.. 2.600.. 2.550
    $+/-..... 0.120... -0.090... -0.040...... 0.160.. 0.050.. -0.05
    Bid....... 2.520..... 2.430..... 2.390...... 2.540.. 2.600... 2.550
    Offer.... 2.530..... 2.440..... 2.400...... 2.550.. 2.610... 2.560
    Open... 2.480..... 2.500..... 2.400..... 2.500.. 2.520... 2.660
    High..... 2.630..... 2.530..... 2.480..... 2.560.. 2.630... 2.700
    Low..... 2.480..... 2.430..... 2.370..... 2.490... 2.520... 2.540
    Vol. 52.013M 32.139M 31.777M 33.329M 30.63M 35.63M

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2011, 07:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    OK gang, the new Concentrator is ready, please move your base of operations to the new Concentrator...

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    19 Apr 2011, 08:33 AM Reply Like
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