Seeking Alpha

tripleblack's  Instablog

tripleblack
Send Message
Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
My company:
Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 29, 2013 223 comments
    Mar 29, 2013 11:45 AM

    New REE News...

Back To tripleblack's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (223)
Track new comments
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    That open fast....er..ish.
    29 Mar 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    Here's a revolutionary way of extracting rare earths using nanotechnology. I'll be curious to see if this experimental method will turn out to be practical for industrial usage.
    http://bit.ly/XoC1eJ
    29 Mar 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    VB: Wow! Separation in 1 second! Less real estate needed, ... I wonder how long until commercialisation for such a technology.

     

    I bet it's really, really cheap too! All the outfits with huge sunk-costs already in place better be keeping an eye on this.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    I agree, HTL, it looks like another rare earth trend to keep an eye on now and then.
    http://bit.ly/173YgJD
    http://bit.ly/108ulfd
    http://bit.ly/173YeBt
    http://bit.ly/108ulfh
    Graphene appears a lot in the nanotechnology literature. Some rare metals such as vanadium, germanium, gallium, scandium and indium get mentioned, too.
    http://bit.ly/173YeBw
    There must be some interesting opportunities in this field to profit from if the technology is becoming more practical by now.
    http://bit.ly/108ulfi
    http://bit.ly/173YeBz
    http://bit.ly/108unnf
    Some more news about rare earths and rare metals will likely show up in the nanotechnology blogs in the future.
    http://bit.ly/173YgZZ
    29 Mar 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think this is the real key IMO. We will all look a lot smarter when the technologies get off the showroom and concept displays and into production. That seems inevitable to me once non-Chinese supply is established.

     

    Much of the discussion focuses on the first mover horse race, but the real bet is a supply and demand bet. Right now the bet is increased supply will come on fast and further drop prices. The stocks already reflect much of this and I think it is old thinking.

     

    Modern manufacturing, marketing and production can create demand at a lightning pace when reliable supply is available. The VB articles above are just a few examples of the technologies waiting to bloom. And the idea that REE substitutes will work well enough is just nonsense.

     

    There can be volatility in REE prices going forward, but once the supply chain is established outside China, there is no way the complex REE processing and production chain can possibly keep up with the responding demand curve. To me it is the promise of nanotechnology finally reaching it's long awaited realization as an investment.

     

    And while I do agree with the CREE distinction short term, I am not worried about any of the Lanthanides long term. I think the technology will create demand and pick up the slack for all of the REE to some extent on a long term basis.
    29 Mar 2013, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    It appears that Lynas is going lower. Do you guys think it will bounce back to .60 or go even lower? I feel the itch to buy more at this time.
    Thanks
    29 Mar 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Jimp: I'm watching for an add too. In summary, all the pressure on the TA front seems downward if you believe the oscillators I watch. There are some considerations that suggest we might be very near a bottom and some that say that's a risky assessment. I know this won't help you decide all that much, but here's my considerations.

     

    With a general deflationary trend in the overall commodity space ATM, while the USD strengthens I guess, there could certainly be some more downward movement. AUD/USD cross *almost* made $1.05 3/25 (hit $1.0497) and then started weakening. So any support that *might* have been due to currency conversion rates is gone for now.

     

    Using (LYSCF) in the following discussion.

     

    On the TA front, Thursday closed at one recent support, $0.57, and there's one more at $0.56 in the U.S. On the ASX, had a volume spike (~13.1MM vs. ~9.9MM(?) 10-day average) on an A$0.02 drop. This *might* signal the end of the trend lower, near-term. If ASX leads us ... It did. We had volume of ~481.7K with 25-day average of ~223.2K. The 10-day average was ~165K. So either way, we also had a "spike". But ...

     

    Recall I earlier posted that we had entered the area where a break was a high probability. We broke below a short-term ascending support and a medium-term ascending support.The medium-term break has been "confirmed". The long-term one will confirm on a close below ~$0.584.

     

    We ended with a "gravestone doji", considered bearish. However, Bulkowski notes only a 51% rate of successful prediction - essentially random. Since this is in a near-term down trend, if there is a reversal, which I suspect, we would move up. I suspect this because ...

     

    The buy:sell ratio Thursday was 69.5% "sells". "Sells" are "hitting the bid". This was likely caused by pps breaking the support levels and may have been a "flush", which exhausted the sellers. Combined with the ~174K volume Wednesday, where I presume we also had a lot of sells (I don't have the numbers, but I was watching the trades and I suspect a very high percentage of "sells" that day too), there's a decent chance we are near a bottom, or have bottomed.

     

    With RSI, Williams %R and stochastic (almost) in oversold condition, and MFI fairly neutral, I'm expecting mostly sideways trading for a brief period with low volume and small up and down movement before we see the next trend emerge.

     

    If we break below $0.56 there's no support seen until around $0.53 and that's from June of '10. So we could see much lower.

     

    If we do reverse and start a move up, there are three trend lines that must be breached: the two former rising supports, which are now resistance, and a long-term descending resistance (~$0.605?). So even if we start up, continuation may be "iffy". If we are able to move up and through that $0.605, we ought to see at least $0.62, near-term.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Mar 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    I noticed the sell activity on Thursday and bought a bit at 58 cents. I guessed the activity was based on its being the end of the quarter.
    31 Mar 2013, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    $REE has been pretty much in lockstep w/$LYNAS right until January when $LYNAS took a jump up and pretty much stayed there while $REE continued to slide.

     

    The last couple of trades on Thursday took $LYNAS to $.60 but don't have any volume data. My gut tells me that you are correct in that the last of the sellers may have capitulated.

     

    I will try a bite at $.585 on Monday and see what happens.

     

    WT
    31 Mar 2013, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    RE: $LYNAS-

     

    No go at $.585 today- $.59 was the number. Try again tomorrow.

     

    WT
    1 Apr 2013, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Then again.....Maybe not-

     

    WT
    2 Apr 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    hmmm LYSDY down 8.6% in OZ tonight....
    1 Apr 2013, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    Well, it ended up being down 9.8%... ???
    2 Apr 2013, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Volume 47.6MM - much larger than what I thought was the "spike".

     

    Last A$0.505. Looks like $0.53 in the U.S. is likely insignificant. Should blow right through it.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    I'm not surprised. I was expecting Lynas to pull back as all the chickens head for cover based on omgwen3rds2's update (below). I would not be surprised if we saw an additional 10% downward move over the next few days, and possible further erosion as the election draws closer. This might provide a good opportunity to add shares for the brave, imo.

     

    However, given the horrible PMI data coming out of Europe over the last few days, I don't see any near-term catalyst for growth in the resource sector in general. I've been watching the big boys (Anglo American, BHP, Rio Tinto, Cliffs, Vale, Glencore) hit new lows as demand continues to weaken. My thoughts... it's going to be a long hot summer... Lynas will probably rebound after the election, but it will remain range bound for some time until global demand picks up again.

     

    Your thoughts?
    2 Apr 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Motionstream: I feel the same. My plan is now to let my small position ride until I see what I feel is a turn start and then add to it. Although Lynas is much more than a speculative play, IMO, at this time, I'm treating the stock as if it is exactly that.

     

    With the annual EZ crises flare up now in full swing and all the IMF usual palliative formulas being applied, I don't expect any demand recovery from that sector for quite some time and that will also spill over to U.S. demand eventually (so many multi-nationals that were "safe" because of the broad-based exposure).

     

    However, once the elections in Malaysia draw near, I think we'll have a clearer picture of the political risk and be able to make better-informed decisions.

     

    TB and Chihawk are much better informed and insightful on this and hopefully they will kick in with some updates as events warrant.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2013, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    For those interested, the lovely Tiggy from "The Business" on ABC24 said tonight she "expects Lynas will be on tomorrow's show". Dont know what that might entail, perhaps an interview with the new CEO? Will see.
    2 Apr 2013, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    STRONG HINT: Ministers told to prepare for photo session before Cabinet meeting KUALA LUMPUR: Parliament is expected to be dissolved as early as tomorrow after the cabinet meeting in Putrajaya, paving the way for the 13th general election.Speculation is mounting following the distribution of letters by the Prime Minister's Office, requesting all cabinet ministers to attend the meeting in a dark lounge suit and red tie for a photography session.

     

    If Parliament is dissolved tomorrow, nomination of candidates is likely to be held later next week, while polling day will fall on April 27 at the latest.

     

    According to practice, the cabinet ministers will have a photo session with the prime minister and his deputy at the final meeting of the cabinet, followed by an announcement on the dissolution of parliament afterwards.

     

    It is understood that the photo session would be done before tomorrow's cabinet meeting and Datuk Seri Najib Razak would subsequently hold a press conference to announce the dissolution of parliament.

     

    Tradition dictates that the prime minister will first meet the Yang di-Pertuan Agong before the cabinet meeting to seek his consent to dissolve Parliament.

     

    Several ministers contacted confirmed that they have received the letters, and did not discount the possibility that Najib would announce Parliament's dissolution after the meeting.

     

    "I have received the letter. This could well be the final cabinet meeting for this term, as according to tradition, Parliament is dissolved after that," said one minister.

     

    If parliament is dissolved tomorrow, it would mark a full four years to the date Najib first helmed the country after he was appointed as Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's successor in 2009.

     

    The government's full five-year term will end on April 30, after which Parliament will automatically dissolve.

     

    The Election Commission (EC) will then have 60 days to hold the election to set up a new government.

     

    Last Thursday, the Negri Sembilan state legislative assembly was the first to automatically dissolve. It is now governed by a caretaker government.

     

    Deputy EC chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar said if Parliament is dissolved tomorrow, the EC would call for a special meeting as soon as possible to decide on basic matters such as the electoral roll, letters of appointment to election officers, as well as the dates for the nomination of candidates and polling day.

     

    Read more: Parliament to be dissolved tomorrow? - General - New Straits Times http://bit.ly/11goMwL
    2 Apr 2013, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Guys i reckon that what caused the sell off today. Malaysia may go in election tommorrow
    2 Apr 2013, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Political and geopolitical risk is THE primary issue for Lynas (and REE stocks in general). This election literally features Lynas as the poster child for both sides, ie, one side has vowed to put a stake in Lynas IF they win, and the other supports Lynas.

     

    It is a high visibility and thus rare example of political risk playing out in the election results. Any investment house working with OPM will almost automatically bail and watch for the outcome rather than ride it out and have to answer for any bad outcome...

     

    The spike upwards for Lynas that will greet a positive outcome for the current Malay administration is a given on that side of the equation...

     

    I do not know what will happen if the luddites gain power. I believe it is quite possible that they WILL shut down the LAMP.

     

    Its a binary equation, folks.
    2 Apr 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » PS: Anyone seeking to make a risky bet on Lynas can lurk at the 52 week lows...

     

    This has been coming for a long time, and it is a relief for me to finally see what happens.

     

    In the end all the analysis, macroeconomic theory, and balance sheet projections mean nothing, whereas the political results in Malaysia mean everything.
    2 Apr 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Just an aside, there's a really good interview this morning on Bloomberg Surveillance with Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management talking about Fed policy and PE ratios. About halfway through the interview he switches gears and is very bullish on the Materials sector. In particular, he see big opportunity ahead in the second half of the year for industrial minerals. Worth hearing if you get the chance to catch it.

     

    It's available on today's Bloomberg Surveillance Podcasts in Apple's iTunes, I didn't see a link on Bloomberg TV yet.
    2 Apr 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    RE: $LYSDY

     

    Bloomberg- 4/2

     

    http://bloom.bg/XVDtBg

     

    WT
    2 Apr 2013, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    $REE vs $LYSDY Today

     

    $REE up 2+ %
    $LYSDY dn 9+ %

     

    http://bloom.bg/XogOlZ

     

    WT
    2 Apr 2013, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OK. I will buy LYC tonight if it is flat. The fall for GW and Moly appears to have ended and I think Lynas will turn too. The election is part of the Lynas story of course, but it seems very overdone at this point. I see two sides to the election story. And putting a near producer in the same category as these other balance sheets is silly. Bottom line: If REE prices stay low, Lynas may be the only non-Chinese survivor. If they rise, Lynas may be the first to really take advantage of them. Lynas has a future. I doubt the fear, Lynas is ripe here in my opinion.
    2 Apr 2013, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Chi: I had to sit on my trigger-finger today - $0.52 looked so attractive. Then I came to my senses and said why add risk to *maybe* get a penny or two savings? I decided I would let the Aussies lead and hold to add tomorrow in the U.S. market if the ASX doesn't tank it some more.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2013, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At this point its daily trading will be reacting to whatever news comes out of the early stages of the Malay elections...

     

    Sheesh. Just what I wanted to add to my store of useless knowledge, loads of elephant dung pertaining to the Malay political process...

     

    Does anyone have any idea how long their elections take, once initiated? We can only hope that they get done a lot faster than the American system!
    2 Apr 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    TB: "We can only hope that they get done a lot faster than the American system! "

     

    That's a given since their campaigning didn't start 3.5 years before the election! ;-)

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    If you believe REE prices will fall from here than I agree. The trouble is there really is no true REE price. The metal pages are hardly equivalent to an exchange. I think we are reaching prices where the Chinese companies would stop selling if these prices were real. They have shut in before and will do so if they feel the price is inappropriate.

     

    Some will assume that shut down price is nearer to historic lows (much lower than here). I do not think that is possible in the current market. If I am wrong about that we are all toast with our current stocks. If I am right I think the Japanese, Europe and the US will set a higher price as non-Chinese supply becomes available. I have read articles about prices going lower. I don't think those articles are speaking about the 2013 market between the near producers and their large company customers. The REE stocks are hold your nose buys at this stage IMO. I'm holding my nose.
    2 Apr 2013, 08:07 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    "Malaysian Investors May Get a Bumpy Ride"
    There are likely quite a few Malaysian investors in Lynas, and that can't be helpful to the LYC share price.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/10vkX4u
    3 Apr 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    10:39 AM Vale (VALE) is replacing in-mine trucks with 23 miles of conveyor belts and building a second railway through the Amazon to cut costs at its Serra Sul project, part of the Carajas mining complex in northern Brazil which is the industry’s most expensive project ever at ~$20B. The project will allow Vale to reduce mine-to-port costs at Carajas to ~$15/ton, half the company’s current operational cost. Comment! [Commodities, Global & FX]
    3 Apr 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/XpYUiN

     

    Ok, let the election watching commence....

     

    This article mentions the idea that the election result would be a tossup, giving good chances for the 3 party alliance (including the ethnic Chinese and Leftist groups) to beat the incumbents.

     

    Explains a lot about the high political risk pushing down the stock price. Earlier articles a few months back handicapped the race as essentially in the bag for the current rulers.

     

    I believe this is an absurd price for Lynas stock, viewed objectively and absent the political and geopolitical risks. This assumes the LAMP is a total loss, and the company is set back to rebuilding at Mount Weld.

     

    BUT... The reality is that elections do, indeed, have consequences, and Lynas' lightning rod position is undeniable.

     

    Looking a bit PAST this sorry episode, I will once again mention my strong objection to plowing even more money into Malaysia to build additional processing capabilities in the future.
    3 Apr 2013, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/12hJY4m

     

    More background, 8 hours old.

     

    So, 10%+ of the voters are young folks and first time voters...

     

    Will they vote for the guys promising them what they want, or the guys in authority who they blame for not getting what they want (and that will vary, but the common theme would be "want").

     

    OMG's comment above mentioned a 60 day period to accomplish the election, after parliament is dissolved...

     

    2 months of this?

     

    Tossup indeed.
    3 Apr 2013, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Hi TB,

     

    I've been keeping up with the election and from everything I have read, the margin of victory for the incumbent party is not as tight as is being reported. Najib's BN party won their last election with fewer votes than in previous elections—but, they still won with a huge margin.

     

    This election is going to be tighter than in the past, but the Pakatan party is seen as extreme by the majority of older conservative voters...and if history is any indication—young people don't turn out to vote in large numbers. On the other hand, most predictions are wrong. Go figure.

     

    I agree that Lynas' sp is nuts at these levels, however this might be a huge buying opportunity?
    3 Apr 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree motionstream.
    The articles rarely keep a perspective. Your post is far better. Don't be so modest.
    3 Apr 2013, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, I hope I'm right. The danger in most of the things that we all read is that it leans toward confirmation bias. I try to look at everything and weigh all sides.
    3 Apr 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Discussion of Lynas -- including an interview w/ the new CEO at

     

    http://bit.ly/10aCZKD
    3 Apr 2013, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Good interview, but I wonder if he's not a bit over optimistic regading the Malaysian political situation and possible ramifications. One thing I noted regarding that - he did say that Malaysia was tight on enforcing their contracts and that it would cost Malaysia substantial damages (~$1B?) if Lynas was shut down.

     

    That should help allay some fears, if true.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2013, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking about this today. Is the Malaysian government on the hook to compensate Lynas? Considering everything (reviews and approvals by major organizations, etc.) the Malaysians would have a difficult time defending themselves if it came down to a lawsuit by Lynas. Afterall, the Malaysian government can't lure a company to build a plant, offer tax breaks, etc, and then say--Never mind after all the time and millions of dollars that have been spent. No one will ever invest in Malaysia again!

     

    This could be a potential windfall for shareholders should the worst case scenario emerge. With that in mind, Lynas stock may never be this cheap again. I'm thinking of adding, but will wait a bit to see how things settle out over the next few weeks. Your thoughts?
    3 Apr 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Corden
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    <<No one will ever invest in Malaysia again!>>

     

    I would like to agree, but such rational expectations are unlikely to hold. Maybe I've seen too many episodes of The Borgias, but just because we've killed your predecessor does not necessarily mean that we are going to kill you too. Circumstances change. Motives are different. The next fool to rush in may prosper mightily.

     

    In the interesting math department, LYSDY closed at 0.51 with a bid/ask spread of 0.51 (bid 0.35, ask 0.86) making those who trade either super pumped or very scared.

     

    As for me, I own and hold and, apart from any knowledge I possess, I haven't a clue.
    5 Apr 2013, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    On the ASX, Lynas closed up AUD$0.025 on medium volume of 20.36MM shares. We should see a similar move here today.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2013, 06:26 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the worries about basket price/demand decline, Malaysian elections, protestors, etc. are largely behind us. In US bux the Ozzie close puts us at 53.7 cents.
    5 Apr 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope the really bad jobs data doesn't scuttle the potential uptick.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2013, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    This just in....

     

    Malaysian Election Body to Set Polling Date Next Week

     

    KUALA LUMPUR, April 5 — The polling date of Malaysian’s 13th general election will be decided next week, the election commission said Friday.

     

    The election commission said in a statement that it will hold a special meeting on April 10 to decide the nomination and polling dates for the general election, widely seen as the least predictable since the country’s independence in 1957.

     

    Two hundred and twenty-two parliament seats and 505 state legislation seats will be contested.

     

    The election commission said it had already received official notification on the dissolution of the lower house of the parliament and state assemblies of Malaysia’s 12 of 13 states.

     

    The only exception is the State of Sarawak, which reelected its state assembly in 2011.

     

    The nomination day will mark the official beginning of the campaign period. The election commission has promised a campaign period of more than 11 days, as suggested by a parliament select commission on electoral reform.

     

    Prime Minister Najib Razak, announcing the dissolution of parliament on Wednesday, is eyeing to retake the two-third majority in parliament that the ruling coalition lost in 2008 for the first time in more than three decades.

     

    http://bit.ly/16y4bDI
    5 Apr 2013, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Apr 2013, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Via Business Insider: Gritty Images From China's Muddy Rare Earth Mines

     

    Read more: http://read.bi/14Wk5LU
    6 Apr 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Just spotted this on the New Straits Times:

     

    Advisory body on Lynas set up:

     

    KUALA LUMPUR: The Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation has appointed members to the Lynas Advance Material Project (LAMP) Project Operations Monitoring Committee, with Malaysian Institute of Chemistry President Datuk Dr. Soon Ting Kueh as chairman.

     

    More here:

     

    http://bit.ly/14Y1sax
    7 Apr 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    That's good news. Now let's see how long it takes the opposition to start accusations of bias or whatever.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Apr 2013, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    I think this article offers an interesting angle to the Malaysian's election. It seems that the opposition party is making threats to shut down a lot more than just Lynas. They're threatening to shut down major projects started by the BN.

     

    I think this bodes well for Lynas and the BN staying in power as the majority of conservative voters won't vote for the opposition if there's a major impact on Malaysia's economy. My experience is that most people will vote in their own economic interest, and a threat to shut down major projects will backfire on the Pakatan, imo.

     

    The Malaysian Insider: Pakatan Would Scuttle Iskandar, Says Nur Jazlan

     

    JOHOR BARU, April 7 — UDA Holdings Bhd chairman Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed has expressed his concern and worry at the possibility that the investment worth billions of ringgit received by Iskandar Malaysia and Johor will be stopped if the voters were to make a wrong decision and give their mandates to the opposition in the 13th general election.

     

    “The opposition has blatantly rejected and said that they will cancel all projects implemented by the government to boost Johor’s economy. So, the voters must really think wisely about the impact of their votes to the economy of Johor and Iskandar Malaysia,” he told Bernama in an interview here today.

     

    More here:

     

    ://http://bit.ly/XznCNO
    8 Apr 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Najib Razak Calls Date of Malaysian Election 5th of May.
    http://bloom.bg/10Shyvd
    10 Apr 2013, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Not much happened in Oz last night with Lynas (down a penny), but Alkane jumped 11.5 cents because of this news release: http://bit.ly/Zb6Y5r

     

    In US bux, Lynas is at $.545 and Alkane is now at $.63.
    11 Apr 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Ungawah: AUD rocketed the last with the AUD/USD cross going from $1.0391 4/4 to $1.0576 ATM.

     

    If we hadn't seen weakening on the ASX for LYC, I would expect us to be up today. But with lower ASX volume and price, I don't know if we can make much pps gain in the U.S. even with the USD weaker.

     

    I guess the politics in Malaysia are weighing on things for now.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2013, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Substantial increase in the shorting of Molycorp to 30%

     

    http://bit.ly/Yfpx5j
    11 Apr 2013, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Reporting and CC 4/19/2013. Pdf at

     

    http://bit.ly/12QEIsv

     

    HardToLove
    12 Apr 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    More coverage of the Malaysian election on The Economist:

     

    http://econ.st/115IFog
    13 Apr 2013, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/XBC6KM

     

    NO CONTEST- A host of initiatives by the government contrasts starkly with a non-performing opposition
    IT was a breezy hot Saturday afternoon at Kampung Pasir Garam, a coastal village in Beserah, Pahang. Inside an old wooden house used as a keropok making facility, three women were planning to make an 8km trip to Kuantan later at night.

     

    The women wanted to be at the municipal council field where Datuk Seri Najib Razak would hold the last leg of his nationwide Jelajah Jangi Ditepati (JJD) tour after Maghrib prayers.

     

    One of them described the prime minister as a caring and generous leader, citing payments made to the people under various government schemes.
    "I got the RM500 BR1M money recently. So, did many others in this village," said 35-year-old Sarifah Nor Ezan Syed Anwar, as she packed the crackers into clear plastic bags.

     

    Villagers in Beserah, a state seat in Indera Mahkota that fell to Pas in 2008, are thankful for the various aid provided by the Barisan Nasional (http://bit.ly/116iSuG) government.

     

    While both BN and Pakatan Rakyat claim they can form the state government after GE13, Pahang Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob insists that BN will make a clean sweep this time, due to the people's genuine desire for absolute victory for the ruling coalition.

     

    Pakatan harbours hopes of taking more Chinese-majority parliamentary seats, like Raub and Jerantut, to add to currently held Kuantan and Indera Mahkota, along with a couple more state seats. It hopes to retain Tras and Triang state seats, both won by DAP, while Pas-held Beserah and Kuala Semantan appear quite shaky.

     

    Fuziah Salleh, the Kuantan member of parliament and a firm critic of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) -- Australian miner Lynas Corp's rare earth refinery in Gebeng industrial area -- admitted facing a tough battle to retain her seat.

     

    The PKR vice-president believes sentiment on Lynas would work to her advantage, but she's worried about new voters, especially the more than 8,000 who would be voting for the first time in her constituency.

     

    In 2008 she defeated incumbent Kuantan MP Datuk Fu Ah Kiow by a margin of just 1,826 votes, after two failed attempts in 1999 and 2004.

     

    Ironically, the three state seats in the constituency -- Teruntum, Tanjung Lumpur and Inderapura -- remain BN strongholds.

     

    "Some of my votes in 2008 came from BN supporters. Now there are also new voters in my constituency. It will be tough," she said over breakfast in Kuantan on Saturday.

     

    Kuantan has always been a BN stronghold -- except in 1969, when Parti Sosialis Rakyat Malaysia won a seat in the state capital, and when Fuziah won in 2008.

     

    While some BN leaders outside Pahang might be concerned with the impact the Lynas issue will have come polling day, local politicians from both sides will tell you that for voters in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota, especially the Malays who live in the vicinity of the plant in Gebeng, the refinery is not considered a major issue.

     

    Ali Ahmad, a taxi driver and a voter in Indera Mahkota, said the Malays -- the largest bloc of voters in these two constituencies -- appeared to trust the government that Lynas was safe.

     

    The Chinese, however, cite the health problems related to the Asian Rare Earth project in Perak and identify with the struggle of anti-Lynas groups, like Himpunan Hijau, he added.

     

    But an Umno leader said there was a 65 per cent chance that BN would wrest Indera Mahkota, as its "missing in action" MP Azan Ismail is not defending his seat, but contesting in Terengganu, where he hails from.

     

    Himpunan Hijau chairman and recently-announced DAP candidate Wong Tack's attempt to wrest the Bentong parliamentary seat from MCA vice-president and Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, meanwhile, is unlikely to succeed even though Bentong is his hometown.
    Najib's detractors, as expected, were quick to accuse the government of trying to woo voters with a package of goodies announced at the JJD in Kuantan.
    The prime minister had, among others, pledged RM50 million to improve the road system and RM50 million to end the long-standing flash flood woes in Kuantan. He also announced an additional RM3 million for the construction of a private Chinese school in Kuantan.
    The proposed construction of 20,000 units of affordable homes in Kuantan, Paya Besar and Indera Mahkota were also questioned, when in fact, the facility is meant to cater to the rising need for housing and to support the robust growth in the East Coast Economic Region.
    The opposition's concern, naturally, was that the allocations would further boost the Pahang people's confidence in the government, said Datuk Mohd Soffi Abdul Razak, chair of the state Housing, Basic Amenities and Transportation Committee.
    The 2008 general election saw BN winning 37 of the 42 state seats and 12 of the 14 parliamentary seats. BN's state seats increased to 38 after independent candidate, Datuk Ho Yip Kap, who won in Tanah Rata, joined Gerakan in 2010.
    BN returned a strong government in Pahang in 2008. It should be able to retain its two-thirds majority in the 42-seat state assembly.
    - New Straits Times
    15 Apr 2013, 04:29 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the info, this is good to hear, I hope it's accurate:

     

    "While some BN leaders outside Pahang might be concerned with the impact the Lynas issue will have come polling day, local politicians from both sides will tell you that for voters in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota, especially the Malays who live in the vicinity of the plant in Gebeng, the refinery is not considered a major issue.

     

    Ali Ahmad, a taxi driver and a voter in Indera Mahkota, said the Malays -- the largest bloc of voters in these two constituencies -- appeared to trust the government that Lynas was safe."
    15 Apr 2013, 06:45 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    OMG, I hope you will continue to contribute your insight here into what's happening with GE13 and how the LAMP is progressing.
    15 Apr 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Do not worry. BN government will win the election. Very conservatively i give BN 75% probability of winning the election. Malaysia is not ready for the opposition party to rule Malaysia. Alot of the people are like you an me who needs to make a living, pay the bill and job prospects. I am like chihawk, Lynas shares are 90% of my networth and i sleep like a baby each night.

     

    Also one more thing. On the day of the elction you will find out the result of the election by the evening. Hope the info helps.
    15 Apr 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    ungawah, just out of curiosity you have read my posts on Hotcopper? Sounds like you know what i am about.

     

    Also tripleblack sorry i have two accounts on your forum as i forgotten my passwords to the original one then created another account to keep in touch with you guys
    16 Apr 2013, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    omg,
    The longer we hold LYC the more that soldier photo seems to fit the feeling. Good to see you and soldier on Lynashead! I think we are nearing finer hours. I'm still fully in. Take care , Paul
    16 Apr 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're always welcome, regardless.
    16 Apr 2013, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • pabloya
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    " I have contacted Lynas over the last month or so with various questions. Some of the responses may be of interest which I have summarized.

     

    1. Current guidance is for initial commercial Rare Earths product samples are available. These samples will be sent to customers for qualification, after which and upon successful qualification, we will commence commercial shipments to them.
    2. The majority of Phase 1 production is covered under written agreements with customers. The majority of Phase 2 production is reserved for the Sojitz distribution/agency agreement into Japan.
    3. Lynas expects to deliver the majority of its rare earths products under existing and new customer agreements. Lynas expects to maintain a small portion of production available for spot sales.
    4. Thank you for your recent email. I can confirm that to date no contracts have been cancelled.
    5. First products for customers were produced on 27 February 2013, with ramp up to nominal Phase 1 capacity expected next quarter. Production results will be disclosed in future quarterly production reports consistent with ASX listing rules.

     

    The above are the results of a few separate emails but essentially address concerns of a few I think. "

     

    http://bit.ly/171vto7

     

    Please disregard if has been posted.
    16 Apr 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Pabloya! I think the information is useful and your effort and willingness to share is appreciated!

     

    HardToLove
    16 Apr 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Hi Guys,

     

    If you have any questions for any info with regards to Lynas please let me know and I will endeavour to give my best answer. My family has been in the REE industry since 1990 working on the Mount Weld deposit and figuring out the technology extraction process for the deposit. Chihawk and I have pretty much known each other for almost 3 years now and we share a mutual respect for one another discussing anything REE under the sun. Pretty much happy to discuss anything about ree especially Australian ree companies except for extraction process as it deemed to be confidential info and plus I don’t want to get into trouble. I am happy to come back to this group as the American posters here more friendly to people and if they are not, they have hardtolove to deal with =).
    17 Apr 2013, 03:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Omg: Heh! All us "yanks" look alike? ;-))

     

    Tripleblack is the blog author and has police power.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2013, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    It is always good to see you OMG. And yes it is a mutual respect and friends.

     

    Tough day out there guys. Quite a few 52 week lows. Could be a tough night in Oz as well.
    17 Apr 2013, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Great Western
    Average volume 195K one transaction 210K.
    18 Apr 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    I agree with the premise of these articles about procuring a reliable supply of critical metals. It's time for more action and less talk.
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    18 Apr 2013, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Quarterly reports Released.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZBVyos

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2013, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Quick peep...

     

    Looks like cash burn for Q1 was about $31million, about half from Restricted funds for Phase 2 buildout.

     

    No surprises for me. Looked solid. Its all about the Malay elections now.
    19 Apr 2013, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    I called in to listen to the Lynas conference call scheduled for 14:00 east coast time and was connected but after 12 minutes of hold with a truly obnoxious message saying that 'the operator will be with you shortly' every ten seconds I gave up.

     

    Are the quarterly results you are discussing the meat of that call?

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Did you checck their site to see if a recoding or webcast is available? In the past ISTR that it was.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Apr 2013, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >HTL-

     

    Yep.

     

    A replay of the session is supposedly available on the Lynas website tomorrow. They specified 24 hours. I will try tomorrow.

     

    The only problem I see is that I believe they speak Aussie, mate.

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    CORRECTION:

     

    I called in at 14:00 East coast time. 14:00 was correct- Incorrect was East coast. The time was in SYDNEY. That would have been midnight east coast time. I will try in the a.m. Saturday for the website broadcast.

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Re: Timezones-

     

    When I become Benevolent Dictator I will proclaim that the only time used will be G.M.T., and everyone will have to modify their respective time schedules to accommodate that much simplified concept doing away with add this- subtract that etc..

     

    WT
    19 Apr 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    I've gone to the website of Lynas and found no current repeat of the 19 April conference call, so I emailed them on Saturday and am waiting for a response.

     

    Will keep you all updated.

     

    WT
    21 Apr 2013, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Re: LYNAS

     

    Cash flo thru 19 April posted on ASX website.

     

    http://bit.ly/11zwui9.

     

    (Also posted on QC#256)

     

    Windwood Trader
    21 Apr 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    A nice little summary article with price multiples and some considerations of REE pricing, but not as thorough as TB's.

     

    "Rare Earth Weekly"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Apr 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Announcement that high court upholds Lynas.

     

    "MALAYSIAN COURT UPDATE"
    "... pheld the earlier decisions of lower Courts to dismiss an
    application by persons associated with the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group ..."

     

    And a bit more about other court issues.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZlX93w

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Re: $LYNAS

     

    Tha 19 April audio link emailed to me this morning by Lynas.

     

    http://bit.ly/ZBVyos

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Thank you for that link Sir!

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Wow! Really generous, huh?

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2013, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Definitely an economy of words.

     

    Windwood Trader
    22 Apr 2013, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Hi Guys i click on quarterly calls and the latest Audio is on 31st March. Where are you getting the 19th of April audio?
    22 Apr 2013, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >OMG-

     

    If you go to 'Investor Calls' you will see the 19 April, Quarterly investor call on the pull-down.

     

    WT
    23 Apr 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Wind,

     

    Guys I have listened to the conference the stupid company cut off the question and Answers section of the talk which WAS THE MEAT of the session. There was a question asked by an analyst which Eric Noyrez revealed more then he should which in my opinion made them cut out the QA part. When I get some clarification I will post the question and answer here.
    23 Apr 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Here is the question that Eric revealed abit more then he should have and it wasnt stated in the quarterly report:

     

    “literally on the back of an envelope when Eric Noyrez did state when prodded by Chris Terry from Deutsche that phase 2 was in play and contracted (sic) and I believe he used the words phase two 8500 tonnes plus a bit more of it has been contracted....I am racking my brain trying to remember exactly but Eric intimated that he had an interested party for volume above 8500 for p2. “
    23 Apr 2013, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Great info OMG! Thanks for filling in the important missing piece.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Apr 2013, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks OMG. There has been some confusion in the past when NC spoke of most of their production already being contracted, yet we did not know if he meant just Phase 1 (this was my opinion), or both ultimate Phases. Now it seems that they are getting serious interest in Phase 2, which is good news, yet it might be bad news for those who bought the idea all along that most of the full 40kmt+ was already covered with long term contracts.

     

    Given that Lynas has gone full speed ahead with Phase 2 and is running low of restricted funds (though it seems they have sufficient left to complete Phase 2), its good news that they have a large customer for a large chunk of Phase 2.
    24 Apr 2013, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    I am not familiar with mining contracts Trip ... Do they set a fixed delivery price when the contract is written, or is the delivery price based on some agreed upon discount to a published "standard" price at delivery time?
    24 Apr 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We have been told that Lynas has "market price" contracts (presumably numbers based upon FOB China quotes). This would mean that the current low prices are what they will get for early shipments, unless the market changes quickly (which could happen, but I'm not counting on that). It has occurred to me that, being the suspicious (some say paranoid) individual that I am, the low FOB China prices occurring right now could even be intended to put pressure on China's new competition in the West... Impossible to prove, of course.

     

    The things which are fixed in the contract would be the delivery terms, timing, and probably estimated quantities. Usually the customer will want to have an agreement giving them either a set amount they can call "reliable", or if the supplier cannot do that, perhaps a set percentage of the miner's production for a period of time.

     

    I think these contracts can vary a good deal from customer to customer, however.
    24 Apr 2013, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good discussion guys.
    One minor note. Lynas is 11,000 tones per annum for each phase. Moly hoped to do over 40+k with two phases. Moly shelved their Phase 2. So Moly's goal is 20k with one phase and Lynas is expecting Phase 1 11k to get started in a few months and ramp up through the year. The 11k from phase 2 that will get them up to 22k total is constructing smoothly and will be towards the end of the year or beginning of next year. My guess is the supply will be very easy to sell once Phase 1 product is in the manufacturing pipeline.

     

    I continue to believe every expert is far off on demand calls right now. China can make the demand look anyway they want with their current level of market control. I think they make it look weak (and turn a blind eye to some smuggling) so outside China prices stay officially weak and funding for projects is near impossible. This price manipulation is not a rational approach to Western companies, but is it similar to the China state manipulation done in the last few decades of REE history.

     

    This State approach could work for them if they could get their OEM's to export much more before reliable non-Chinese REO supply was available in the West. If they were able to do this, the oxide monopoly could feed their current manufacturing advantages and continue their strong position going forward.

     

    My view is China will fail in this regard. The horse has left the barn IMO. Japan is too ready to move the technology forward and Lynas is too close to production. An opposition win in Malaysia could help China in this sense, but I don't think that will happen. My guess is China is just setting the table for Lynas so I continue to hold. Just MO.

     

    PS-Enjoying the CREE ads while watching my Spurs. Lets see what that little marketing does to demand.
    27 Apr 2013, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct, Chi. Wash my mouth out with cerium for the 40kmt reference.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    This just in from Smaturin on the QC.http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Apr 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4416) | Send Message
     
    thanks Rob't. this pays to watch.
    23 Apr 2013, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Shanghai Metals Market — Medium-to-Heavy Rare Earth Supply Tightens:

     

    http://bit.ly/12G1CRb
    23 Apr 2013, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ...and so it begins.
    23 Apr 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Its about time.
    23 Apr 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Just so we can track, from http://bit.ly/12Gg1wG

     

    The Lynas "basket" prices: FOB China today $32.49 and China Domestic $20.20.

     

    How long do we think guess till they start to wobble substantially.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Apr 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hard to tell, HTL. This might be the first crack in the idea that the supply from smuggling and closing down the last private Chinese shops has dried up, or it could be the middlemen in Japan losing the handle on the less common elements, which would naturally be the beginning of any sign of supply constraints.

     

    If it is either (or both) its happening a bit earlier than I had thought, but then again, until we see it impact the major magnet products, its still not going to do much for Lynas (or MCP) or any other exChina player.

     

    The start of a steady (if low key) increase in prices could eventually make a big difference, of course.
    23 Apr 2013, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    There's another new report out on the Chinese rare earth industry which can be purchased for a fancy price. But reading through the report's table of contents and list of charts is interesting.
    http://bit.ly/ZHDtZn
    http://prn.to/11Mr9nN
    23 Apr 2013, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Could be the military talking about rearming Japan could be putting pressure on the suppliers in Japan too.

     

    editied in,

     

    Add this to the mix too.

     

    http://bit.ly/XWADyY
    24 Apr 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 10:4. That would definitely fall under the heading I mentioned earlier of "unforeseen demand".
    24 Apr 2013, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Yep, yep, yep. Count me as one that is trying to reduce the number that are unforeseen.....LOL
    24 Apr 2013, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just a rumor (so far), but don't be surprised when the Europeans start to do the same thing. Those looking to the US to be their beat cop as they were a few years back are slowly realizing that the world is changing quickly...
    24 Apr 2013, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    I will volunteer to send the Europeans a night stick so they can police things themselves. We could not afford it then and we damn sure cant afford it now.
    24 Apr 2013, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, Ivan would be thrilled to step in to the void.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Let them beat Ivan back. We do not need to be there.
    24 Apr 2013, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Let them buy their own nightsticks!
    24 Apr 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    OG, love your sentiment.
    24 Apr 2013, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/ZJKgBD

     

    GE13: Wong Tack’s green credentials questioned

     

    BENTONG: DAP candidate Wong Tack, who has made a name for the anti-Lynas campaign, has come under attack over his environment credentials following revelations over the Internet that he owns large tracts of land which has been used for oil palm cultivation, a sector which is frowned upon by environment groups.

     

    A popular portal, stopthelies.my, has also claimed that Wong is a Canadian permanent resident (PR).

     

    Wong, a Pakatan Rakyat candidate, is challenging MCA deputy president Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai for the Bentong parliamentary seat.

     

    Uploading documents of Wong's company, Marvellous Resources Sdn Bhd, to prove his involvement in the palm oil business, the pro-Barisan Nasional blog hit out at him for misleading Malaysians by projecting himself as someone who fights for environment issues.

     

    It claimed that the Environment Protection Agency once even “warned Wong's company for its unplanned and over-cultivation of oil palm trees”, adding that he should be rejected by the voters.

     

    Wong admitted that he was involved in palm oil cultivation, saying he had never hid the fact. He added that his family had owned more than 1,000 acres of land for the past 20 years.

     

    Defending his involvement, he claimed that “unlike many plantations, not a single drop of weedicide is used on the plantation. We use organic fertiliser and enzyme to reduce chemical fertiliser to a minimum level to carry out soil preservation and prevent river pollution.”

     

    Wong hit out at the portal, describing the allegations as “blatant lies”, adding that if he had any wrongdoings, they would have surfaced much earlier.

     

    On the Canadian PR allegation, he admitted that he had held the country's PR when he ran a consultancy firm, which specialised in environmental impact assessment in Canada, but it had been cancelled.

     

    “I did not return there after I came back to Malaysia in 1996. In Canada, if you do not return there for five years and do not pay tax, the PR will be cancelled,” he said, adding that he had always held on to his Malaysian citizenship.

     

    A palm oil plantation owner, meanwhile, asked if Wong's plantation was recognised by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), adding that it was not viable to run such a huge place by using the so-called “organic friendly fertiliser”.

     

    An RSPO certification is a seal of approval that the palm oil is produced without undue harm to the environment or society.

     

    The plantation owner said although Wong had claimed that he had not hidden his involvement, the latest news had come as a surprise to many other plantation owners.

     

    China Press had exposed Wong's membership as a DAP member since 2011, despite him saying that he had no political links or allegiance with any political party.

     

    In January, Wong had also told Malaysia Insider that his group Himpunan Hijau did not see the necessity in fielding candidates for the 13th general election.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for posting this, very interesting. I was looking through some of the comments and it seems that some people have gotten Wong Tack's number. I thought this comment was spot on:

     

    "This guy is a division leader of sorts in DAP when he first championed the Bukit Kiara green thing. Then he took on Lynas to advertise himself further all under the guise of being a environmental activist. All he does is to demonstrate and nothing at all to see how he can help the constituents and solve their problems. Next he would be lobbying to protect animal rights. Maybe he should be running for office in SPCA.

     

    Don’t waste time on him..he is just another opportunist trying to cash in the elections."
    25 Apr 2013, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2046) | Send Message
     
    Wow, doesn't matter where you go, there's always fun & games in politics.
    24 Apr 2013, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    New Seeking Alpha article on Molycorp form Shock Exchange regarding Moly's debt that's worth reading. (I'm everyone here is aware that "Shock Exchange" has been pounding away at MCP for a while and he admits to shorting MCP right now)

     

    Most notable is the article's conclusion:

     

    Molycorp has determined that intangibles pursuant to Molycorp Canada are impaired. The company would have you believe that by happenstance, the goodwill impairment expense of $258.3 million lowers consolidated assets just enough to remain in line with debt covenants pursuant to the Notes. I think there is a risk that holders of the Notes could challenge that calculation and deem the Notes' debt covenants have been breached. A breach could trigger penalty interest rates or maybe even default, requiring immediate repayment of the Notes unless the holders of the Notes agree to waive the breach.

     

    Secondly, if it is deemed that the goodwill write-off was not consistent with GAAP accounting rules, management may have run afoul of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. Sarbanes requires management to attest to the accuracy of its financial statements. Such a breach could involve fines or even the removal of management. That said, I rate the company a sell and advise potential investors to wait until these issues are resolved before investing in the stock.

     

    Full article here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    25 Apr 2013, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >motionstream-

     

    I'm getting a 404 error on the link. Could be my system or browser. Tried it several times.

     

    WT
    25 Apr 2013, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Hi Windwood, I just checked the link and it seems to be working. Not sure why it's not working for you. You might want to try doing a search for "Shock Exchange" on Seeking Alpha.
    25 Apr 2013, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Yep- Thanks motionstream-

     

    Nice article-

     

    I went to SA/Shock Exchange and worked to the article. A good one and well researched by the author.

     

    Did a little research of my own and am now short MCP.

     

    I might owe you a finders fee! {:-))

     

    WT
    25 Apr 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    My pleasure. I think the article's comment thread is interesting. Some people are very passionate about their opinion on MCP. For the record, I don't currently have any position in the stock. I'm a Lynas investor.
    25 Apr 2013, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >motionstream-

     

    Me too on Lynas. Every time it drops into the $.45-.49 range I add some more. I have some GWMGF that I keep around just to swear at something but it DID go up over a cent today.

     

    WT
    25 Apr 2013, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Opposition Playing Up Lynas Issue Will Not Affect Investment - PM

     

    KUANTAN, April 25 (Bernama) -- The issue of the Lynas advanced materials plant in Gebeng near here which has been played to the hilt by the opposition has had little impact on investors wanting to invest in Kuantan, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

     

    He said despite their (opposition) trying to frighten people by claiming their health was at risk because of the plant, the government of China did not hesitate to invest in the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park (MCKIP).

     

    "They (Chinese government) never even asked about the Lynas plant, they never saw it as a threat.

     

    "That is why they dared to invest in MCKIP and not only that, they also dared to ask for land closest to the Lynas plant to invest in this project," he said at a dinner with members of the Chinese community in Kuantan at a hotel here Thursday night.

     

    More here:

     

    http://bit.ly/ZRPOGh
    25 Apr 2013, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    they also dared to ask for land closest to the Lynas plant to invest in this project,"

     

    Spy on the project. More industrial espionage? One has to wonder.
    26 Apr 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    D.G.: Likely. Plus, assuming it's a tech plant that needs REES, they can get them with ~$0 transportation cost, more quickly, develop good working relationships, ...

     

    It could be a big win all around, except for the spying risk for Lynas. But, the technology is nothing all that brand new, so there shouldn't be much to gain from spying. A future purchase of the plant might be in mind though? It's right next door when the time comes.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2013, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Never discount the political (and geopolitical) dimension. Should China's allies win the upcoming elections, that plant could be one of the spoils. Should the Malay government end up owning an idle REE processing plant, who would be first in line with a lowball bid?

     

    If nothing else, this should be viewed as a covering bet, if not an all-out gamble.
    26 Apr 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    TB, you have an uncanny ability to see much farther into things than me with my glowing copper colander, tightened down chin strap and tin foil covered windows. Excellent point. LOL
    26 Apr 2013, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A cautionary tale would be the long list of failed moonbeam projects funded by the US taxpayer and now owned (for pennies on the dollar) by China Inc. This is not a logical stretch, its a successful operational plan.
    26 Apr 2013, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Rare Earth News on LYNAS quarterly 25 April-

     

    http://bit.ly/Y9sfP5

     

    Windwood Trader
    26 Apr 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    More news items out of China:

     

    China Daily: Fresh wind for rare earths

     

    Global demand for metals rises as product prices decline in China

     

    Global demand for rare earths, especially the primary type, will continue to remain strong in the long term, despite concerns over the supply of medium and heavy rare earths in the short term, says a top industry official.

     

    Speaking at an industry forum in Shanghai recently, Su Bo, vice- minister of Industry and Information Technology, said efforts to set up large-size rare earths enterprises will be quickened with steps to check illegal mining. The main thrust of the government action is to enhance high-end technology research and industrialization moves, he added.

     

    The minister's remarks come close on the heels of conflicting reports that global demand for rare earth metals from China rose during the first quarter due to falling prices, while most of domestic producers and processors were reeling from losses.

     

    Information provided by the General Administration of Customs says China's monthly rare earth exports rose by 55 percent in March, compared with February, to 1,718 metric tons. Export volume during the first three months grew by 47.3 percent to 3,916 tons. However, the export value of the shipments dropped nearly 71 percent to $91.9 million.

     

    Chen Zhanheng, deputy secretary-general of the China Rare Earths Industry Association, says that export volume has grown due to the falling prices as many overseas buyers are now shoring up reserves after exhausting stocks.

     

    Chen says though there are no clear signs of an immediate pick-up in demand, the market for rare earths will certainly grow as production being regulated and prices declining.

     

    More here:

     

    http://bit.ly/12NN6XE
    26 Apr 2013, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    I want you guys to please focus on Jack Lifton's comment as its a very key point he is making.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Gentlemen,

     

    I enjoy reading your tales of market gamesmanship, in which you try to make money off of each other and off of those who consider Molycorp just another game in the casino.

     

    In fact none of you understand the problems of building or operating a very large solvent extraction plant to separate the rare earths not only from each other but in mixtures and ratios that are CUSTOMER specified. Sovent extraction planst are not meant to be turned on and off with a light switch. They must be run with a DEFINITE output spectrum in mind. If Molycorp is building inventory it is either because their customers cannot or will not take material or they are making a generic material on speculation. If the designated customer does not take the specified material it will only be sold at deep discount, if at all.

     

    Please keep playing your market games, but do not purport to understand the operations of an industry that is a specialist business which you do not understand.

     

    Jack Lifton
    27 Apr 2013, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Jack-

     

    "Market games" is what provides capital to organizations that would hope or promise to provide a meaningful return to the investor providing the money. In great part the "games players" must be able to depend upon the information supplied by management.

     

    Risk is part of the "market game" but for an organization to be not disclosing the issues behind a solicitation of capital is well beyond the pale, and is disingenuous at best- possibly a lot more than that.
    Based upon the reports of management several months ago I too was a stockholder in a company that intentionally mislead the public. Since I am primarily a trader I wasn't burned too badly since I could soon see what was going down and jumped off the train.

     

    I guess you could call me a "market gamer" but I like to refer to myself as an investor seeking the truth. I need for a company to provide that.

     

    Windwood Trader
    27 Apr 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton:

     

    "There is also the effect of unsalable inventory that has to be re-worked due to not meeting the customer's spec or being contaminated. This happened when Molycorp restarted the original plant, and IF it is happening again it is VERY serious.

     

    Neither Molycorp or anyone else outside of China plans on selling high purity separated rare earths INDIVIDUALLY. The market for them is customer designed specialized composites such as La-Ce for fluid cracking catalysts and Neodymium-praseodymium (didymium) for magnets. The only commodity material they might make is cerium oxide for glass polishing, but that is a low value very competitive product. SorbX is their only hope to get some added value from cerium."
    27 Apr 2013, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    The Above comment is bloody GOLD. I knew that Mark Smith was telling constant lies on television and that is without a doubt. Now Jack Lifton has reveal from his visit of the Molycorp plant that when the plant first started they were already producing REES NOT UP to spec! What this may mean is that when Mark SMith bought over the plant he doesnt have the experienced technical personell to run the plant like Lynas does with Rhodia. Guys i want to emphasize what a critical point Jack has made.
    27 Apr 2013, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for posting this. Jack Lifton posted a comment a few weeks ago after Moly's last quarterly update in reference to the SorbX distribution deal. Basically he said that the deal won't help Moly's bottom line anytime soon because the end-users of SorbX are very slow to replace their existing systems--taking years, not months to switch to something new.

     

    So, if Jack is right about SorbX, and if prices for REEs don't pick up soon, then Moly's near-term prospects will remain bleak.

     

    Regarding Mr. Smith, I became wary of his comments about a year and half ago and sold my shares. He was spending money like a drunken sailor rather than focusing on the build out of the plant. Personally, I get cautious when companies (particularly CEOs) get too aggressive with their PR. It's a big red flag for me.

     

    As an example, I have been watching Orbite Alumina for the last year and noticed the same aggressive use of PR--too many grand claims of breakthrough technology. If it looks like a pump, it probably is. Orbite may very well achieve everything it claims, but there's no good way to verify their claims at this early stage, and dilution is almost guaranteed going forward. It's better to wait and see. Orbite, like Moly has plunged lately, but for different reasons.

     

    One thing I like about Lynas is that they're conservative in their communication. Some might say too conservative, but I trust that Lynas is on the right path.
    28 Apr 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps Lynas has finally got their PR machine up and running, or maybe the stars are finally aligning in our favor. Another positive article on Lynas is out today:

     

    http://bit.ly/ZVH8yE

     

    No Major Environment Or Health Issues In Lamp Operation - Expert

     

    PUTRAJAYA, April 27 (Bernama) -- If you compare the risk from living in the vicinity of Lynas in Pahang, with the risk people face in their daily life in things they normally do, the risk is extremely small, said a leading United Kingdom rare earth expert.

     

    Prof David Bradley said the larger risk would be in getting up and walking to the bathroom every morning, because when you walk on a wet surface, there is the risk of falling over, knock the head, and that never stopped anyone from their daily routine.

     

    Citing Colorado in the US, for instance, because of its higher altitude and less atmosphere to shield the sun ray, he said the level of radioactivity was still considered natural throughout the world, and it did not hinder people from living in the state.

     

    Met at a briefing here recently, the professor of radiation and medical physics, University of Surrey, UK, said, there was no evidence to suggest that the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (Lamp) would cause a major environmental or health concern.

     

    Bradley said this in reference to Lamp, a Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd project aimed at processing raw lanthanide concentrates imported from Mount Weld in Western Australia, to produce rare earth oxides and carbonates at the Gebeng Industrial Area in Kuantan, Pahang.

     

    Rare earths are a group of 17 minerals that are essential in a wide range of modern technology, from hybrid car batteries to low-energy light bulbs.

     

    Located close to the proposed 607-hectare MCKIP which is also sited at Gebeng town in Kuantan, Pahang and within the East Coast Economic Region (ECER), in its earlier stage of operation, the project faced opposition from some residents.

     

    Fuelled by politicians with certain agenda, among issues raised by the residents were the safety of radiation exposure, health, environment and residue management; and the matter was brought to the court. However, last week, the Federal Court allowed Lamp to operate its rare-earth processing plant for the time being.

     

    In referring to the Lamp operation, Bradley said that in dealing with the radiation material, special attention was placed in the transportation of radioactive material, on how much it would affect the atmosphere, air, water, environment and others.

     

    He said facilities in the plant were highly regulated, approved by the Atomic Licensing Board (AELB), and there were data to update the situation at the site, and outside as well, monitored round-the-clock by the management.

     

    He pointed out that apart from the data being made available in the Department of Environment website, there was also a large electronic board placed in front of the plant site that showed the data reading daily.

     

    Bradley said the electronic board displayed the realtime reading on the air quality and water samples collected within the vicinity of the plant; should there be a sudden change in the reading, it could be detected right away, by even a layman.

     

    "The problem is with public perception. When you provide the number, any number, there are always issues raised. Let's say, if I do research on mineral water activities, the question is, if you publish that material, would the people be less willing to drink mineral water, because now you publicly declare that there s been activities, as in mineral?," he asked.

     

    He said the data released needed to be supported in the way that the public could understand the implication, and it had to be presented in a relatively simple way, since it could also causes undue concern within the community.

     

    Bradley said there had to be some form of education to enlighten people on how to understand the data, and this was where the media could play its vital role.

     

    With a three-decade experience in the radiation protection and radiation physics field, having conducted more than 200 researches and publications in radiation protection and medical physics, Bradley was a consultant to the Development of National Radiation Protection Policies and Procedures for Malaysia's health ministry from 1989 to 1991.

     

    He praised the Malaysian Government's strict action in dealing with environment issues, saying it always maintained tight control on the development of industries it oversaw.

     

    "So, there is tremendous amount of due diligence involved in how this site in Lynas is developed, it is admirable," he said.
    27 Apr 2013, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Havent seen this on the site in a while. Has new articles.

     

    http://bit.ly/rdl62B

     

    Amazing how Great western steenkampskraal value per unit mass blows everyone away.
    29 Apr 2013, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • froggey77
    , contributor
    Comments (2791) | Send Message
     
    Lifton was a holder of GWMGF a while back.
    I see he is not now.
    29 Apr 2013, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Has anyone looked at Namibia Rare Earths - Lofdal resource? It appears to rate pretty well on those charts. Greater than 90% heavies
    within Xenotime.
    29 Apr 2013, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    It seems conceivable that Namibia Rare Earths NRE.to, NMREF.otc, can operate in the industry for many years if it can continue to attract capital.
    http://bit.ly/14Mr62k
    http://bit.ly/17uNYS0
    I might be interested in their mining venture if I can visualize the Lofdal concentrates actually reaching the markets. The company will probably announce more definitive plans about that in the future. A couple of paved roads connect from the nearest town to the Lofdal rare earth deposit, Khorixas, eastward to Otjiwarongo then south to the rail junction at Okahandja. The concentrates can conceivably be shipped by a rail line from there southward to the industrial ocean port at Luderitz. Either that or they can be shipped by rail further south to South Africa for processing.
    http://bit.ly/14Mr62m
    http://bit.ly/17uO1x7
    http://bit.ly/14Mr62q
    Their stock price got crushed just like any other junior rare earth miner in the ongoing commodities recession.
    The mining deposit in Namibia is located in a country with a favorable mining reputation.
    http://bit.ly/17uO1xb
    30 Apr 2013, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Thank you!

     

    Some recent news from them. Some "smart folks" buying a big share of the company.
    http://bit.ly/14R2JAR
    30 Apr 2013, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Looks like someone bought a bunch of lysdf at US$5.09 instead of 0.509 today.
    30 Apr 2013, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    WOW! Talk about a fat finger mistake. Incredible. 20,000 shares at 10 times the price. One of the most amazing examples of stupidity I have ever seen. I hope the SEC unwinds that trade.

     

    However...

     

    The dude/dudette sleezebag that had the $5.09 sell in must already be off to the islands.
    30 Apr 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Since the 5.09 buy was LYSCF, I wonder if a rewind would be very hard to impossible. ETrade flags things like this when the price entered is X% over the current price.
    30 Apr 2013, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Neither Power ETrade Pro nor finance.yahoo. com show that $5.09. Nasdaq after-hours for lysdy doesn't show it either. Must've gotten unwound. OTC doesn't show it for lyscf either.

     

    HardToLove
    1 May 2013, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    I was really hoping some HFT algo bought that stuff at that price and was forced to keep it. Letting HFTs off the hook is a mistake, it should be part of the price to run an HFT algo.
    1 May 2013, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it did get unwound, but the graphs at Yahoo and Google still show that peak just after noon yesterday.
    1 May 2013, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Re: $LYSCF-

     

    My Fidelity trades screen for the last five days show a high of $.518 with yesterday one blip at $.516. Other than that yesterday's high was $.51.

     

    WT
    1 May 2013, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    WWT: Somethings wrong or they are rounding?

     

    4/24 high $0.497, 4/25 $0.518, 4/26 $0.518, 4/29 $0.514, 4/30 $0.515 5/1 so far$0.515.

     

    HardToLove
    1 May 2013, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Don't know- The 4/26 @.518 is OK but the 4/30 could be fractional rounding? or maybe a multi part trade?

     

    Don't know how that works if it's part of the same order. I know when my stuff is filled in parts I get a record of each. I'm just guessing that one segment got filled at .516 and they just rounded.

     

    .0005 +/-

     

    WT
    1 May 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Barclays has published a report this morning on the commodities market, a rather bearish forecast. The one paragraph that stands out for me is this:

     

    "Spare capacity and inventory buffers are still relatively low in many markets and this at a time when geopolitical risks are becoming an ever more clear and present danger, especially to energy supplies from the Middle East. The most obvious friction point at present lies in the severe infrastructure deficits that are creating choke points and preventing the smooth flow of many commodities around the globe. A lack of pipelines, storage facilities and ports of the scale required to get new supplies to where they are most needed is at the heart of the huge increase in regional oil and gas price differentials and soaring physical premiums in base metals. Distribution is becoming the new battleground for commodities and is likely to remain one for some time to come (emphasis mine)."

     

    ... I'm not sure if that many people appreciate, or are aware of just how tight capacity really is right now. Demand can turn on a dime. Price spikes for industrial minerals and metals (including REEs) are very likely. There will be some good buying opportunities over the next few months IMO, I think we're getting close to hitting a bottom. But, given some of the poor ISM number coming out lately I expect that we will continue to see more volatility through the summer.

     

    Read more here: http://read.bi/15ZwkYM
    1 May 2013, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): ",,, Files Preliminary Economic Assessment Report"

     

    http://prn.to/12V3Rz3

     

    HardToLove
    1 May 2013, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    China says illegal rare earth production, smuggling still rife:

     

    http://reut.rs/ZFMGBR
    3 May 2013, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Fingers are crossed that the Malaysian election results favors
    Lynas!
    3 May 2013, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Great Western hired a PR firm. They think that will help them create shareholder value. Maybe it is just past the point of no return. They'll suck the last penny out of it before finally killing it.
    3 May 2013, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I still say they are looking for a buyer. Probably sell the NA projects first...
    3 May 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I've felt GW has been about PR and spin for most of it's existence. If you look at their story and claims and then look at the balance sheet, projects and profits/losses I can't see how a PR firm could sell any more Kool-Aid.

     

    I think it would make more sense if the old management would have started their own PR firm. How does this act show any understanding of the situation or the concerns of investors on their last conference call? I guess GW feels they have been too much about execution; too much block and tackle; too much lunch pail and hard hat. Please. Maybe Mark Smith gave them that idea.
    Note to the new PR firm:
    "We do what we say when we say it." did not go so well.
    Also ask Hykway for tips. He has been doing your job with the facade of an analyst for years.
    Did the Strategist graduate from prep school and apply to the same PR firm? The worst part about bad juniors is always the end. A total slow motion train wreck IMO.
    4 May 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • Eamon Keane
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    Haha, it's a curious little sector all right. Are all junior mining sectors as dysfunctional as REEs?!

     

    Strategist's spreadsheet adventure based on a 'macro' view of the REE industry lead him to a 'conservative' $139 target in January 2012. It's easy for me to criticise because I didn't make any recommendations myself! If you would like more of his advice he's a natural resources analyst at Morgan Stanley.
    5 May 2013, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Are all junior mining sectors as dysfunctional as REEs?!

     

    No.
    I think the biggest difference is hidden demand in new technologies not yet in the marketplace. Also, the control of the current price by China as a state dominating the current REE market is a big factor.

     

    If China maintains control the sector remains dysfunctional IMO. If they lose control the sector grows rapidly in size and the early movers should benefit most.

     

    I agree Strategist is from the current Morgan Stanley analysts mold. MS will tell you "we can always pay attention after the prices move." But there was a time when they did real research like you Eamon. Always great to see you.
    5 May 2013, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Live Results on the Malaysian General Election

     

    http://bit.ly/11LyAgq
    5 May 2013, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    The first site i posted is opposition based website. Below is more neutral.

     

    http://bit.ly/10AabI0
    5 May 2013, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Omg: but the first seems to be doing OK on the counts: 34 to 23 in favor of BN at 11:09 EDT. I've been watching them move and the changes in ratio has kept it from being boring as the day wears on.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: 35/23 11:11
    5 May 2013, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Well, this ought to be fun: "Fuziah Salleh (PKR) wins in Kuantan". But right now, 12:08 EDT, BN has 90 out of 129 seats reported.

     

    From your second link.

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    AS of 12:49 EDT, BN has 112, a majority. If current ratios hold, BN will have a quorum, 148 or more.

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: new numbers would have them just short of a quorum at 144/145. Likely the ratio will continue to change though.
    5 May 2013, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    1.01am: Perak Pakatan has conceded that BN has successfully retained Perak.
    5 May 2013, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    13:54 EDT, BN can't make quorum now because they have 126 seats with only 20 left to report. 148 needed.

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Forgive the bow. I would say the Malaysian election went as I said it would last month. Let's hope we all benefit from the results.
    5 May 2013, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. I'm glad it is behind us.
    5 May 2013, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (668) | Send Message
     
    Lets hope this is the catalyst we need to get Lynas heading in the right
    direction.
    5 May 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5754) | Send Message
     
    It's up 6 cents in OZ so far..
    5 May 2013, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    Lynas should be good to go from now going forward.
    http://bit.ly/10icNeF
    6 May 2013, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    And this A.M., 05:30 EDT, we see a nice A$0.58, + A$0.08, on 56.5MM shares. Not seen healthy volume like that for a while.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2013, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    That equals US$0.595 -- another few days like that and I'll almost be even.
    6 May 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/13bOvHE

     

    INVESTORS appear to believe that Australian rare-earth producer Lynas was also a big winner in Malaysia's election yesterday.
    Shares in Sydney-based Lynas jumped as much as 20 per cent today after Prime Minister Najib Razak won a tightly fought election.

     

    Lynas has been engaged in a long battle over the company's $800 million rare-earth refinery in Mr Najib's home state of Pahang.

     

    Mr Najib's government has largely supported the plant, while the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition vowed during the election campaign to review the project and maybe shut it down.

     

    Activists have expressed concern about how the company will handle the low-grade radioactive waste that comes from processing rare-earth elements. The company and the Malaysian government say the plant is safe.

     

    Lynas hopes to become one of the world's top producers of rare earths, 17 elements crucial to the manufacturing of high-tech products ranging from iPhones to missiles.

     

    ...After a five-year wait, Lynas received a temporary operating licence from the Malaysian government in September, but has faced legal challenges since.

     

    Malaysia's highest court last month dismissed an appeal against the decision to allow Lynas to operate the refinery, which was opened in November and produced its first rare earths in February.

     

    Lynas shares had lost more than 13 per cent year-to-date before the election.

     

    "The return to office - albeit at a reduced majority - should alleviate some of the uncertainty we had anticipated if the opposition had won, or if the result was hung," brokerage BBY institutional dealer Anson Rosewall said.
    6 May 2013, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/11NaRw8

     

    We believe that the opposition had been softening its stance against the Lynas rare earths plant in Malaysia. The incumbent party victory is a positive, but a contested victory is likely to see some continued anti Lynas rhetoric. Ultimately, the market will judge Lynas on is profitability as the plant ramps up. The ramp up appears to be going very well, and should drive the share price in the near term.

     

    The Chinese Domestic RE market remains stable at levels below those in our model, but it is likely that the company will sell at some premium to the published.
    6 May 2013, 03:23 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    http://on.wsj.com/10fphsc

     

    By Daniel Inman

     

    Malaysian stocks surged on Monday to a record high and the currency jumped after the ruling party Sunday retained power in country's general elections, reassuring investors who had worried about a potential change of government.

     

    The Bursa Malaysia KLCI was up 3% at 1745.43, while the ringgit rose to the highest mark in almost two years against the dollar. The stock market had been stalled all year in anticipation of the elections and the move upward was seen by analysts as a strengthening of Prime Minister's Najib Razak's political coalition and a vote for continuing his fiscal reforms.

     

    "The political status quo will remain in Malaysia after all, despite all the excitement over a possible sea-change," HSBC economist Su Sian Lim wrote in a research note.

     

    Elsewhere in Asia, markets also moved higher following strong employment data in the U.S. that led to another record-breaking session on Wall Street.

     

    The U.S. added more jobs than expected in April, according to a Labor Department report released on Friday. The data was taken as further evidence of a continued recovery in the world's largest economy, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a fresh record high during the final trading session of the week.

     

    The U.S. dollar climbed 1.1% against the yen on Friday, but started the new week only a touch higher, at Y99.07. With Japanese markets closed for a public holiday on Monday, trading of the yen is expected to remain quiet in Asia.

     

    Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added 1%. Mining stocks made strong gains, responding favorably to an increase in commodity prices on Friday following the U.S. jobs report. Rio Tinto jumped 3.3% and BHP Billiton rose 2.6%.

     

    Metal companies also made substantial gains in China, where the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.4%. Jiangxi Copper Co. jumped up 4.6% and Yunnan Copper Co. added 3.7%.

     

    Markets were also looking ahead to economic data from China, with trade and inflation figures scheduled for release on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. A strong result could help maintain a recovery in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index has risen for eight of the last ten sessions.

     

    On Monday, the Hang Seng index continued its advance by climbing another 1%.

     

    Galaxy Entertainment rose 2.6% in Hong Kong after the gaming company paid HK$3.25 billion to acquire a casino from Get Nice Holdings, which also jumped 11.3% higher.

     

    Central banks in both Australia and South Korea are scheduled to hold policy meetings this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision on Tuesday, which will be followed by the Bank of Korea's policy decision on Thursday.

     

    South Korea's Kospi Composite was 0.4% higher.

     

    Write to Daniel Inman at daniel.inman@wsj.com

     

    TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkbackAsia@dowjones.... Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
    6 May 2013, 03:44 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    The economic outlook for trade between Australia and Malaysia is brightening with the implementation of their new trade agreement. A positive situation like this will reinforce the investments made by Lynas in Malaysia.
    http://bit.ly/13yFbNa
    http://bit.ly/16h5fQM
    8 May 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Great articles and content OMG!
    6 May 2013, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Spotted this press relese this morning. I'm don't believe any of it. It looks like a pump to me, but thought I would share it here. We can add this to the long list of "pie in the sky" REE refineries that will never be built:

     

    CREC to Acquire Initial Site for Rare Earth Refinery in the US:

     

    http://bit.ly/13xSxt3
    8 May 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    More REE refinery news via ProEdge—

     

    China’s Largest Heavy Rare Earth Separation Plant is Approved:

     

    http://bit.ly/13iT6rE
    8 May 2013, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp - The rare earth producer posted a loss of 15 cents a share, excluding one-time items, on sales of $146 million, exceeding Wall Street expectations for a loss of 27 cents a share on sales of $138 million. Shares rallied in extended-hours trading. After hour trade saw the stock surge 41 cents up 7.5%. GO LYNAS GO
    9 May 2013, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Omg: Well, down under it gained another A$0.015 to A$0.66 on reducing volume, 32.8MM shares. Unfortunately, we here in the U.S. my not see all of that as the U.S. $, DXY, is on a tear with the AUD/USD now down at $1.0043. Last time it was in this range was mid-to-late June of '12.

     

    I'm hoping that the fundamentals, resolution of Malay politics, the fact that Phase II off-take agreements are already developing, .. will rule the price days.

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 06:47 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Of courese, Maya just sold his Moly preferred shares. Investing gods sense of humor. I cant tell you the number of times I sell something or buy something and then.......everyone has been there I am sure.
    10 May 2013, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    DG: My latest was for my wife's account when I took a small profit, fitting for her more risk-averse profile, and less than 2 minutes later it ran up enough to have more-than doubled the profit.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    HardToLove
    10 May 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    AND....there will be more.

     

    All we can do is mumble something under our breath. Unless no one is home....then we can yell, kick, scream and have a real ole fashion temper tantrum. Maybe even throw a few things. LOL
    10 May 2013, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    Yes, been there, I totally understand.
    10 May 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    DG: Haha! Great timing on my part, but I doubt the preferred has been affected much by MCP's beat. Seems there's short squeezings going on all over the investing universe. And I'm not part of any of 'em.
    10 May 2013, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Up 5%.
    10 May 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Whats up with this? I had hoped they would just quit... heh

     

    http://bit.ly/16fhP3z
    15 May 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
     
    I'm guessing that the article has more to do with "trying to save face" after losing every round so publicly, rather then actually being a new or ongoing issue for Lynas. There will be more SLSM "noise" for a while, but my guess is that it will fade over time as Lynas continues to prove out safety and provide a boost to Malaysia's economy.

     

    There's also a lot of noise by the Pakatan calling the election unfair and protests in the streets. So I would keep this latest SLSM article in perspective in context to the larger political picture in Malaysia at this moment in time.
    15 May 2013, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Anybody know why or willing to take a SWAG as to why there are two fairly large buys into GWM today? A tad over a quarter million shares in two buys? Volume today about 2.5 times normal?
    15 May 2013, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Maya- GWM will report their numbers after market close today and I think tomorrow is their conference call.
    15 May 2013, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9482) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, OyGee, With all the front office feuding that has gone on, I may just take in the transcript, something I haven't done in about two years with GWM.
    15 May 2013, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    What will they announce between now and the annual meeting in June:
    Will there be an announcement about a permanent CEO?
    Will there be an announcement about a reverse split?
    How are they going to fund operations and debt payment? What's for sale? Any partnerships signed?
    They had better have some answers and not another cheer leading session.
    "Inquiring minds want to know..."
    15 May 2013, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like Marc LeVier in the CEO slot.

     

    Bad timing for a reverse split. Uplisting costs money, and they are trying to trim expenses.

     

    They mention seeking funding to pay for the Vredendal plant. They mention tolling the SKK production from the Chloride plant, which I suspect would involve their Chinese partner.

     

    Though they didn't put any of their other projects up for sale, the announcement of curtailing all such exploration/wildcatting projects while they focus on SKK is LONG overdue (and should have been done over a year ago). I am still of the opinion that all the non-core projects are for sale.

     

    Otherwise, in line with what I expected. We'll see what the CC reveals.
    15 May 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    From OG's link

     

    4th item on the list.

     

    Exploration expenditures and focus will be on SKK Project, while other project expenditures are being significantly curtailed.

     

    Damn TB your radar is functioning flawlessly.

     

    Thankfully it was not further down the list. Just finished putting 2 hives of bees together and that requires ALOT of beer to settle down afterward. Only one bee sting. Working in the dark helps.....sometimes... but usually when the word "Honey" is involved. wink, wink.
    16 May 2013, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    Here's the great western numbers.
    http://bit.ly/10ztFgk
    15 May 2013, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Holly crap just saw the time. Wife must be pissed......I have been to preoccupied. Sending yall a special song to close out the night. Parov Steler "Booty Swing." None for me tonight I am surely in the dog house. Best all.

     

    http://bit.ly/13ytRli

     

    You have to get past the first 30 seconds. Trust me. Who could not like roaring 20's music jazzed up. The original dancing with the stars.
    16 May 2013, 02:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    D.G.: Man, if that music doesn't move one, they are deceased!

     

    Thanks!

     

    HardToLove
    16 May 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    The Parov Steler band is a modern band....they aint dead yet, not even close enough. Those dancers on the other hand.....should certainly be close enough if they aint dead yet.
    16 May 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Just so you can see what I have been doing tonight with my son David. In the dark with flashlights. Not the preferred method.

     

    How to set up a beehive.

     

    http://bit.ly/14racCK
    16 May 2013, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    OG, sending you a great Irish song. Its called "The Rebels song"

     

    http://bit.ly/12CVo2r

     

    A follow up if you liked that one.

     

    http://bit.ly/10sH8L0

     

    Now I have got to get to bed. Fairtax discussions are gonna become fair hacks when the wife gets ahold of me.Surely I deserve it but damn its gonna hurt.
    16 May 2013, 03:19 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5027) | Send Message
     
    You were in rare form last night, DG!
    16 May 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7814) | Send Message
     
    Still recovering from the "bee stings" Ugggh and I have 3 more hives coming from Georgia. Maybe should have had them ship some white lightening in them too instead of just sugar water. .
    16 May 2013, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYSDY arbitrage opp this morning is stronger than normal, worth a look for those seeking to build positions...
    16 May 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some Lynas thoughts...

     

    LYC tanked (as did the overall Aussie market) last night, down about AU$.05, nasty...

     

    But we have recently seen events in LYSDY trading "leading" events down under, a situation which I believe at least hints that the moves are the result of actions by large players. The norm is of course for the American shares to trail meekly behind the Sydney trading, so when we see this relationship swap ends, it pays to take note.

     

    I would not be surprised to see LYSDY (and perhaps LYSCF as well) buck the trend from last night... Although we could also see even deeper drops as the trend is led lower.

     

    With another 5 weeks until the next quarterlies (Due June 30 I believe), and the short action still running very hot from the pre-Malay election days (when it hit very high levels, much of it extending well past the elections of course), I see efforts to extricate large short positions prior to reports from new management detailing the first quarter of ramping production and commercial sales.

     

    I view this situation as offering good arbitrage opportunities for the traders among us, and low prices for those seeking to build longer term positions. I am a buyer in the $.50's at this time, though I am trading when the arbitrage becomes noteworthy to reduce my average share cost.
    23 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    TB: Thanks. I took profitsd at $0.68 on my two small trading blocks and have a near-term TA target suggested by the bottom of the gap-up open on (LYSCF) of $0.48. Part of this is supported, I think, by the AUD/USD cross, currently at $0.9694, around levels seen week of 5/26/2012.

     

    Having said all that, I'd already decided that anything in the low $0.5x range was a decent entry and I don't know if I'll push for that $0.48 or not. The potential value here, along with the likelihood of a rebound from these low levels seeming likely in the near-term, makes it tempting.

     

    HardToLove
    23 May 2013, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    Lynas up a penny and a half Downunder last night -- would be nearly 55¢ for us Uptop in the US.

     

    With Japan's trying to reinvigorate its economy, Lynas should benefit.
    24 May 2013, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >ungawah-
    Why would Lynas benefit in an invigorated Japanese economy? Japanese demand for rare earth stuff? Or is there another component?

     

    WT
    24 May 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (887) | Send Message
     
    If manufacturing in Japan regains some of its strength, especially hi-tech products, seems reasonable that they will need more REEs and prefer non-Chinese sources.
    25 May 2013, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, unguwah-

     

    Makes sense.

     

    WT
    26 May 2013, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Japan is also going after a cheap yen to help with export sales. This factor will tend to lift demand for Rees as well.
    27 May 2013, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    >Trip-

     

    "Japan is also going after a cheap yen to help with export sales"

     

    Seems like half the exporting countries in the world are playing the same game. It's difficult for me to get a grip on the potential economic outcome but it seems that it may follow the old Garrison Keillor corollary-

     

    A place where all the (children) economies are above average.

     

    WT
    27 May 2013, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Down another AUD 1.5 cents to $0.55 last night down under on low volume. If we keep the 1.5 cent spread we had Friday, we could touch $0.515 and close around $0.535 USD. That would close the gap from Fri. 5/3 - Mon. 5/6. A close below $0.534 would be a break below a long-term descending resistance/support, If confirmed. $0.48 could be on the way again.

     

    The AUD/USD cross is at an important support point going back to Oct. 2010. It has been tested and held, with a little slop, several times since. With the macro-environment now, RBA actions, Japan trying to revive the economy, doubts about China, ... and the USD on a tear ATM, I don't know if it can hold up this time.

     

    The currency conversion ATM would equate to USD $0.5308 (exch rate $1.0362) per finance.yahoo.com.

     

    I know a catalyst is coming that will shake Lynas loose from the macro for at least a while. What' the bet? Acceptance of qualification samples? Revenues? New contracts? Other?

     

    HardToLove
    27 May 2013, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • Windwood Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (2355) | Send Message
     
    John Mauldin talks about the corner Japan has painted itself into-

     

    "The Mother of All Painted-In Corners" by John Mauldin: http://bit.ly/13cB6gH

     

    Windwood Trader
    27 May 2013, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Another down down under -A$0.025 to A$0.525 on low volume, ~8.8MM. ATM = US$0.508.

     

    If we head that direction, U.S. price will likely move below a long-term resistance/support, ATM ~US$0.535, and looks to finish closing the gap from 5/3-5/6 by hitting $0.52. I'm thinking it'll want to touch US$0.48 again on (LYSCF). The question is who's leading?

     

    HardToLove
    28 May 2013, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Aussie shorts are still in firm control, but I still see the likelihood that they will use the conditions they have created short term to unwind the long term short positions which yet contain the Malay election risks. Australian politics are also heating up as it slowly dawns on many that there is a clear downside to overloading their struggling commodity sector with globalist climate agendas.

     

    My view is that the Australian green political movement has, like most such national and international groups, been hijacked by a quite hard boiled cabal of diehard leftists with environmental beliefs a mile wide and a nanometer deep. The moment it becomes apparent that elections will be lost rather than won based upon hot buttons like carbogeddon and punitive commodity taxes, they will shift to a more accommodative stance.

     

    Even so, I anticipate a new government led by the Right to result, which will operate in a manner similar to that in the UK.

     

    Meanwhile, the next Lynas quarterly report is coming at the end of this month. Sometime between now and then we should see the positions reflecting the preelection risks changed, perhaps dramatically.
    28 May 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2184) | Send Message
     
    Their globalist climate agenda is a bit creepy.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    It makes me wonder about the future viability of extractive industries in Australia, North America and Europe.
    28 May 2013, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13386) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Elections will take place in September...
    28 May 2013, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (293)