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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic MInerals Concentrator, April 26, 2011 110 comments
    Apr 26, 2011 3:14 PM

    "The Challenge".  Others see the world as sweet, kind and sunny...

    I see even the topic of a unicorn as something other.

    Wild times ahead, gang.  Watch out for the horn...
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  • Drizzo
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    It seems that PMHF changed its ticker to GOLDF.
    26 Apr 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. No effect on the stock price, but could signal a future emphasis on their gold assets rather than REE assets...
    26 Apr 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • Eamon Keane
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    I posted this in the Strategist's "Molycorp's Project Phoenix Rising Along With Its NPV" (seekingalpha.com/artic...), just thought I'd repost it here to see whether you guys had any counterfactuals on Xsorbx in particular. These concentrators are a great source of information!

     

    "On Xsorbx, I've looked into it and based on my research I'm skeptical of its prospects, but am open to correction. Here is my take on it:

     

    "Molycorp’s Xsorbx uses cerium dioxide (CeO2) to remove arsenic from water. Arsenic exists in two states, As+5 (arsenate) and the much more toxic As+3 (arsenite). Cerium dioxide (Ce+4) reacts with As+3 to convert it into As+5 per the following equation, and the cerium dioxide is in turn converted to the standard REO Ce+3 cerium oxide (Ce2O3).

     

    Ce +4 +AsO 2 −1 →Ce +3 +AsO 4 −3

     

    The remaining As+5 is easy to remove by precipitation, for which the standard additive is alumina (Al2O3). Judging by the patent, Molycorp’s Xsorbx is in the region of 30% CeO2 and 70% Al2O3 and is in the form of millimetre sized particles. While the original patent application was submitted in January 2003, according to Moly’s January ’11 S1 prospectus, the only sales were in July-September 2010, where it accounted for 0.1% of revenue or a respectable $8,400. At a selling price of $9.90/kg, this amounts to 850 kg of Xsorbx or approx. 250 kg contained cerium.

     

    The S1 makes it clear that Xsorbx is only viable at low prices:

     

    “we are in discussions with multiple large, globally diversified mining companies regarding the sale of Xsorbx, which will expand demand for cerium in times when it is in surplus and low priced.”

     

    These are presumably the same “discussions” Moly was having as stated in the July ’10 prospectus, and possibly since the patent was granted in 2005. If this review of arsenic removal processes is anything to go by, the conversation may go on for some time yet:

     

    “For the effluent from mine site and metallurgical processing, the adsorption technology is less likely to be an efficient and cost-effective solution due to the relatively high level of arsenic and other species which may compete with arsenic for absorption sites or contaminate the surface of the adsorbent particles.”

     

    Aside from mining, Moly is targeting other segments:

     

    “We have begun to sell Xsorbx for commercial use in the wastewater, recreation, pool and spa, industrial processes and other water treatment markets”

     

    Judging by Moly’s September 2010 press release, this $8,400 of sales went to Bio-Chem Resources. This is a small company whose headquarters is ostensibly a house in Oklahoma, so you’d have to question the size of its order book. Anyway, as the S1 states, these other segments can’t handle the Ce price spike since July 2010:

     

    “At current prices, we would seek to sell cerium for other uses [other than Xsorbx] instead”

     

    So presumably sales of Xsorbx have ceased and will remain at nil for the foreseeable future until Ce prices descend to the pre July 2010 level ($10/kg). While Molycorp contend that Xsorbx is in great demand by the water treatment industry, I find this hard to believe. Since 2000, the Japanese Shin Nihon Salt Co. have had an arsenic removal product called the READ-F filter. This uses cerium and the exact same principle as Xsorbx, and is described in the attached thesis. The only difference between READ-F and Xsorbx is that rather than have the cerium dioxide particles as a powder, they are attached to an ion exchange resin. The READ-F was trialled in Bangladesh, where there is a serious problem with arsenic in the groundwater, but never got traction as it was too expensive at $50/filter, when the poor could only afford a very cheap sub $20 filter."

     

    US Department of Defense report. No one knows for sure why it wasn't released but as was alluded to in the recent Congressional Research Service report (fas.org/sgp/crs/na...), the reason may be the opposite of what you are intimating:

     

    "Congress could require DOD to immediately release the rare earths report, hold public hearings on its findings, and examine the methodology and assumptions used in collecting the data. DOD had reported to GAO that DOD’s assessment of the defense supply chain would be released in September 2010. As of March 2011, the report has not been released. The reasons for the delay are uncertain. One press report stated that at least one Member of Congress was initially provided a briefing on the report and disagreed with its conclusion, reportedly, that China’s monopoly on rare earth materials did not pose a national security threat."

     

    The stockpiling is significant, although I'm not entirely sure why China would want to stockpile the light REEs, since it has them in abundance compared to the more limited HREEs. This stockpiling could conceivably place a floor on the cerium and lanthanum price for a couple of years. I can't see the Chinese buying it at anything like the current $130/kg, however.

     

    "Unique and irreplaceable". That's a pretty broad statement. The fact is in the majority of applications they're not unique or irreplaceable, save perhaps europium in screens or neodymium for portable electronics and hard-drives.

     

    One point I think you're missing is that Molycorp's production (40 ktpa) is enough to move the REE market. Molycorp will produce 20 ktpa cerium, an increase of about 30% on current supply, while Lynas' 22 ktpa will similarly produce about 11 ktpa cerium, a further increase of about 15%. These forecasts that were made several months ago assumed MCP was at 20 ktpa and Lynas 11 ktpa. Lynas' levelised cost of production is about $10/kg OPEX and $2/kg Capex. Any basket above $12/kg and it's a reasonable bet. Molycorp makes sense above about $5/kg if we can take their cost assumptions at face value (not accounting for value add from mine-magnet). Most REE prospects at FOB currently are pricing at a basket of about $130-150/kg. There's currently a huge scarcity premium being applied to MCP and others, when the medium-long term RE supply-demand dynamic would suggest a lower premium."
    26 Apr 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (672) | Send Message
     
    Eamon, thanks for your post. I've have always enjoyed your comments and articles on SA.
    26 Apr 2011, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I saw your excellent post, but did not respond in that venue. Here, I can give you some impressions...

     

    When I first encountered MCP's efforts to promote this product, the first thought that went through my mind was to wonder how it would stand up to lower cost alternatives (at the time I was convinced that REE prices were going to skyrocket). I found your update fascinating, in that it showed how this quirky adjunct to the MCP story was responding to higher prices by vanishing as a current alternative.

     

    The story that the DOD would view China's REE monopoly with equanimity is so bizaare, I supposte it must be true. When one sees the insane geopolitical moves the Federal government embarks upon, this sort of idiocy makes the perfect backdrop.

     

    As an investment thesis, however, it pays us to KNOW about this sort of thinking (oxymoron though that might be in this application). Power is power, and it retains its potency whether it is wielded by an able leader, or a moronic bureaucracy.

     

    Needless to say, my opinion has long been that China's monopoly in this (and other areas, but those are not the thrust of your post) DOES constitute an extreme danger. Having had some dealings with the Federal purchasing regime, I can say that when it comes to national security contracting, they ASSUME a great deal. For instance, they would ASSUME that whatever REE sources they desire will be there years from now because they ARE present today. They would also ASSUME that they could count on their low-bidder corporate cronies to look after minor topics like raw material availability (not their job, after all), EVEN if the prospect that they would be transfering sensitive technology to China were present. IF pressed, they would ASSUME that, because after all they ARE holding more guns than anyone else, they could in a pinch just seize the needed goodies from whoever might have some, starting first with American citizens, but not hesitating in extremis to include the odd regime change.

     

    So, yes, I can BELIEVE that they would be that stupid, I really can.

     

    The same geopolitical situation that created the Chinese monopoly (now mutated into an odd public/private Cartel) is also opening them to international pressure from the WTO and various nations unhappy with the prospect of China forcing their defense industry to relocate its primary manufacturing to China, and to offer up their proprietory technology as the price of admission. The folks handling this planning in China have this figured out. One of the best defenses is the abrupt discovery that REE mines have created environmental problems. Fortunately, China has been able to crack down on the criminal outlaw miners - has shut down many mines and crude refineries - and is laboring mightily to protect mother earth... Though this unfortunately means they cannot meet the world demand, and in fact have been forced to decrease exports. Given that the wild west REE situation over the past 20 years in China HAVE gravely polluted many deposits, and worn out many others, to the point where China is probably looking at no more than a 10-15 year reserve for their DOMESTIC needs, their steps to cut back exports and boost prices, taxes and tarrifs is very logical.

     

    You and I might be at odds as to the options available for many of the REE applications. Many of the alternatives I have reviewed are young technology, thus very iffy - or less efficient - and often more costly (even with higher REE prices) - and sometimes just shift the onus from one hard to find material to another. Japanese researchers in particular are all over this problem...

     

    Though for anyone who missed it, Japan recently announced that their scientists had discovered how to make a substitute for Palladium...

     

    From Platinum.

     

    Okkkkkk...

     

    I've been bouncing around the high tech research space for a long time, and the one thing I've found is that the more research looks into blue sky alternatives, the more "promising" technology comes out which never goes anywhere. The pace of moving major industries from one technology to another is customarily glacial. Decades transpire, UNLESS pricing for key materials goes beyond reason (not happened yet, and not likely to, and the prices for the more exotic alloys has ever been stratospheric).

     

    Note that even the most dear materials, like platinum, retain their functions when it turns out that, though costly, they yet comprise the best, most efficient answer. I do expect that some materials which were once disposed in landfills will, instead, become primary recycling targets (we are already seeing a nascent REE recyling industry cranking up in Japan due to this).

     

    Polishing compounds aside, there are compelling reasons why the magnet, electronics, defense, refining and glass industry require REEs. Sometimes there is considerable tolerance for higher REE prices, because the high priced end product uses only a tiny (but important) bit of the pricy REE. Sometimes efficiency is important (weight savings, gross bulk, and so forth), and when this efficiency is an important competitive advantage if you use REEs (and a disadvatage if you don't) this supports the REE narrative.

     

    Personally I mistrust the "world market" demand numbers for REEs. For one thing, they are inevitably based upon the numbers coming from the REE export quotas (source: Chinese government) combined with the estimates of domestic demand (source: Chinese government). This is all fine and good if one can trust these single-source numbers (I don't), but lets look at the flip side, ie, that they are talking about closing down over 1000 outlaw mines and refineries (in a single provice, at that), and fighting problems with entrenched smuggling...

     

    Which would seem to at least HINT that maybe those official numbers (one must doubt that those outlaw miners and tong smugglers had official export licenses) are erring on the low side.

     

    None of these numbers recognize the new reality of re-awakened strategic stockpiling. South Korea is seriously planning to raise their national stockpiles to over 1500 metric tonnes, while major Korean manufacturers like Samsung, Hyundai, Kia and ILM are quietly raising their own stockpile goals and initiating talks around the globe with potential REE sources. Even the EU, not known as a particularly acute group when it comes to handling strategic planning (LOL, after all, the entire continent is utterly dependent on Russian natural gas), is in the stockpiling business.

     

    FInding a major corporation or government which is NOT setting up REE stockpiles is easier than the reverse. Nobody really knows what all those groups will set as their personal stockpile comfort level, but it will have a major impact going forward for decades.

     

    China's stockpiling is ANOTHER way to game the upcoming WTO and trade treaty fights, so we should not be puzzled when we find that they, too, are stockpiling (and unlike everyone else, they get first cut at the supplies created by their own monopoly).

     

    I am one of the skeptics when I read where MCP plans to beat CHINESE production costs for REEs. I honestly hope they CAN pull that trick out of their hat, but I doubt it, and lest we think they are looking at the presumably higher production costs China will be running as they slowly start to install real environmental controls on the industy, MCP is NOT... The numbers they are using are the older Chinese production costs! One supposes MolyCorp wishes us to believe that their environmental compliance costs will be much LOWER in California, USA, vs Baotou operating with a compliant client government in China...

     

    I absolutely agree that MCP is over-priced, however, having said all this (partly because I disbelieve their promises of astounding productivity, low costs, and quick buildout). My idea is that MCP might be worth about $38-39 right now, maybe $40-42 for a risky trade, but not more.
    26 Apr 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutely, welcome to the Concentrator!
    26 Apr 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here's more news on BrightSource, Molycorp's solar neighbor down the Wheaton Canyon Grade from their Mountain Pass mine.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    26 Apr 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    anybody got anything on the supposed BNN thing with GW CEO?
    26 Apr 2011, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    I'm watching for it - it hasn't come up yet. There's appears to be a delay, based on timestamps of available videos. In three more minutes, I'll check again.

     

    If I get, I'll post.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    on the BNN Market call part 2 right at the beginning the guy ( Peter Hudson) from Sprott says Great Western is his favorite REE play. "A misunderstood one" he says and then says that they should be a takeover target.

     

    www.bnn.ca/
    26 Apr 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I looked for the interview, used every search ... Nada. I have on my radar to watch the Sprott and Fulp interviews.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Apr 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    I am hopingGreat Western gets some steam up and moves. Its been shuffling sideways for quite a while.
    26 Apr 2011, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    O.K...for the first time since I've involved myself with Lynas they are starting to bug me a little.
    First of all, thank goodness there is sensibility to trading down under today. I am starting to grow respect for the investor there when compared to our markets. Lynas is down today, as they should be.
    Make no mistake about it...I believe I am going to make good with Lynas sooner...or later, but...
    Clearly they are starting to play some of the same games others play. The timing of the Malaysian news combined with press releases today with no real news info in an attempt to prop up pps. Hey...I don't really blame them...I'm just saying...same old stuff.

     

    www.businessspectator....

     

    stocks.us.reuters.com/...
    26 Apr 2011, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    and Lynas annouce Forge meeting rescheduled for anyone interested...

     

    www.businessspectator....
    26 Apr 2011, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We can expect the "updated explantaion" to coincide with Mount Weld startup, with hopes that the topic can be buried amid lots of upbeat hooplah and a share price increase.

     

    I will be happy to book the profits at the time, but this is still a festering sore in the company which needs to be lanced.
    27 Apr 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    From the look of things in Oz tonight, there should be some buying opportunities on Lynas, NOURF and others tomorrow -- especially Lynas.
    26 Apr 2011, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Wow...interesting drop in Oz....
    Also..What is it.....a one year chart of Avalon.....why did it rise so well and how can we spot a similar situation?? Is GWM NTU Ucore...in a similar position...what are similar strains...
    27 Apr 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (672) | Send Message
     
    Regarding Avalon. Getting listed early on a major exchange, and excellent PR were the major factors that made it do so well.
    27 Apr 2011, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct, jimp. Add in some friendly analysts with high increase projections and a microphone...
    27 Apr 2011, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX up 1.12% while Lynas is down 9.8%. price is now well below the 20 day SMA of $2.40.

     

    Of note is the volume on this drop, which is the largest in about 2 trading weeks. The strength of this move - combination of price range and volume - indicates that momentum should carry the price much lower.

     

    Meanwhile, the currency strength continues to tip against the U.S. dollar. A converted equivalent closing price would put the U.S. price of LYSCF at US$2.39, meaning we would likely see a 15 cent drop from the prior close of US$2.54.

     

    There is the question of who's leading. Did the OZ price drop in sympathy to recent U.S. price action? The magnitude of the drop would seem to answer no. But that doesn't necessarily mean that U.S. price is following, although I believe it will be indicated that we are following.

     

    If we get a similar percentage change, we go to US$2.29. But getting there might be a stutter-step affair as we've got a few gaps that might offer some (temporary?) support points along the way. The most recent is from the gap up open 4/19-4/20 of $2.40-$2.55 (we're already just inside that gap at $2.54) and the next is in the down leg from 4/15-4/19 at $2.35-$2.45. One in the prior up leg is at $2.38-$2.45 from 4/1-4/4.

     

    Given these points, I doubt we close at $2.39. More likely $2.45 or $2.35. Early trading volume might give a clue. Using the low of 3/15, $1.57, and the high of 4/11, $2.84 as a range, we have a Fibonacci 38.2% price point of $2.35. This is also a potential pps support point from the 3/3 high which acted as support on 4/19.

     

    Note that we've already had a substantial drawback from the $2.84 high in just 10 trading days, being down 10.6% already. We probably ought to consider all the above in that light. Doing so, I consider the volumes during that period and believe this is a pretty strong downdraft that might continue for a while. Adding another month of uncertainty, since the vote on the Crown sale has been delayed (Thanks Rain!), probably won't help price stability at this time.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results (gap due to holidays).

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/20..... 4/21..... 4/27
    Last...... 2.400... 2.450... 2.210
    $+/-...... 0.110... 0.050. -0.240
    Bid........ 2.400... 2.440.... 2.210
    Offer..... 2.410... 2.450.... 2.230
    Open.... 2.340... 2.460.... 2.320
    High...... 2.410.. 2.510..... 2.340
    Low...... 2.330.. 2.430..... 2.210
    Vol. 23.182M 18.79M 47.403M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15....... 4/18....... 4/19
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010.. -0.070... -0.170
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540..... 2.480..... 2.300
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570..... 2.520..... 2.350
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590..... 2.540..... 2.390
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510..... 2.410..... 2.290
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M 28.973M 40.520M

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is suffering from 2 major problems:

     

    1. The Crown Deposit give-away smells to high heaven, and now we have large Lynas shareholders in the courts ready to fight, and constant business news headlines showing just how self-serving it is for Nick Curtis... The announcement that he has delayed the vote (was May 18) on the matter while he circles the wagons and tries (what is this, the fourth such "explanation") to sell the deal. Don't anyone underestimate the importance of this matter, it is a nasty problem, and kicking the can just makes it worse.

     

    2. The Malaysian review of LAMP is being widely (and wildly) misconstrued and misunderstood, and the Australian markets are profoundly sensitive to environmental issues. This is, imo, the lesser of the two problems, but combined they amount to big trouble short term.

     

    I am not adding on this drop (its still well short of my personal $1.92 Buy@ level anyway, and frankly, I am overweight Lynas already.
    27 Apr 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    HT...I've always wondered how and if major events mess up technical tracking (speaking of Japan earthquake/Tsunami/Nuke) in this case. It seems it would throw things out of whack and make what you do so well all the more challenging.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    Since NC is getting heavily blasted on Crown/Forge, I have been wondering what the long term damage to Lynas will be. NC is Lynas and Lynas is NC, right?
    27 Apr 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "NC is Lynas and Lynas is NC, right?"

     

    LOL, that certainly seems to be NC's viewpoint, but I for one don't share it.

     

    Frankly, I'll not be voting in his favor anytime soon. He had best feather his nest with his pet creature Forge (which I will NOT be investing in), because he has well and truly fouled his home at Lynas.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Exactly rain! "Catalysts" induce sudden shifts in the action and longer term patterns must start to develop from this shift.

     

    It has at lest one beneficial effect: it keeps me from thinking I "do so well". That keeps me trying harder, learning more (as time permits) and very humble.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All my life I have been a student of whatever task was before me. This is something which I prize, and which I respect when I find the same trait in others. Though it is perfectly true that it is possible to master very simple tasks, more complex endeavors offer deep pools knowledge wrapped about depths filled with mystery.

     

    I salute those who accompany us in this concentrator on this journey of discovery, and particularly those like HTL who are seekers of knowledge.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Mt. Weld and the LAMP (and Crown, Coors and Swan) are Lynas. And Lynas is (Crown, Coors and Swan) Mt.Weld and the LAMP. Just MO.
    27 Apr 2011, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Curtis won't be the first CEO who confused ego with ownership.
    28 Apr 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9630) | Send Message
     
    What? Playing the hardest most ruthless game in the world? A game in which no one, I repeat, no one is master? A game where humans compete against vastly quicker decision making machines? Playing against the inner circle...those "in the know?"

     

    What? This little game called the stock market?

     

    Columns such as this REE thread help, hugely help our edge.
    28 Apr 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    There were a few other reports out..but nothing really new. A report stating that Lynas welcomes independent review....Yeah right. And another eiterating the ASIC review of the Lynas-Forge deal. I'm sure they welcome that as well!

     

    Although I have not had Lynas pegged well as of late...HTs above pretty much match my expectations...although there are newer interests in Lynas than before and has been less predictable.

     

    I have had a 2.29 target for a longer-term Roth start(appx 4000shs) I will sit on and don't expect to trigger until/if there is one more down day.

     

    Remember, there could be Mt. Weld news soon. Any news other than that (such as customer contract news reminders like last night) will likely be ignored as sentiment seems set. The fact that they are running stories out to help holp up pps during this phase indicates to me that they may rush to bring something more substantial out.
    This is why I said what I said last night. I don't fault Lynas for this behavior...GW needs more of it as we've stated...but I always admired how they avoided it in the past and it was one of the first things that got me into them...right before I met the 'Gades
    I thought: THIS IS A COMPANY IN REEs WHO ACTUALLY HAVE ENOUGH GOING FOR IT THAT THEY DON"T NEED TO PRESS AND PUMP

     

    Questions: Do the customers they have lined up have use for raw material (pre Malaysian LAMP completion) and will they purchase it?
    Does raw material have much real value?
    Who else do we know with separation/processing capabilities who might purchase raw materials before LAMP? Neo?
    Remember Lynas owns a stake there

     

    And, in answer to someones ? above...I do believe we see a big pop after Mt. Weld announcement regardless of all else... JMO
    27 Apr 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rain, to answer your questions:

     

    Yes, often the market is for oxides rather than highly refined metals, alloys, or finished subassemblies. Many of the applications which use the more common light elements are in things like catalysts and polishing abrasives as well (not refined metals). This is why the opening of Mount Weld is so important. If you look over the various price lists for REEs out there (either the FOB China lists, or the market lists from London, the lists companies like Pele Mountain maintain on their sites, or the basket prices for TREOs maintained by Lynas) you will see prices set for oxides. Lynas will find a large and hungry market for the production from Mount Weld, whether they have the value-added LAMP up and running or not.

     

    As for the values, look at the various lists and spot the prices for "oxides". This is what a seperation and concentration plant (such as that sitting at Mount Weld) produces. NOT refined metals or high purity products.

     

    The Japanese have a long history of buying even the REE metals from China, and immediately re-refining them in their own AMP facilities for quality control reasons. Whether or not they plan to do that with Lynas as well would depend on how good a job the LAMP does. In any event, Japan would be very prone to take the output from Mount Weld and put it immediately to good use.

     

    Neo might indeed be a good (if small) customer for Lynas, given that even their tight integration with China is likely to run afoul of the export quotas, particularly as China tightens up the various loopholes (export of "subassemblies" made from high purity REE metals which are then immediately melted down and re-purposed, meaning that the subassemblies were just a means of subverting the export quotas). China recently raised export tarrifs on these items about 65%, and there is the expectation that they will clamp down on them much more firmly soon as they issue their 2nd half export quotas and new slate of taxes and export control regulation.

     

    I also agree, I too expect a pop after Mount Weld finally cranks up...
    27 Apr 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, Mt. Weld nstart now EOM May?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, anytime after the first week in May...

     

    It would be nice if we had this behind us BEFORE the MCP lockbox event (around May 21, but that is from my memory banks, not my notes).

     

    Also note that the vote on the sale of the Crown Deposit has been delayed past mid-May, which is a mistake, but NC really WANTS that 40% control of Forge - AND the prospect of boosting Forge stock values with new assets and by forcing various Lynas investors to cover their butts by buying Forge stock...

     

    OK, I'll drop that for now, but ONLY for now...
    27 Apr 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Let me just add to this. When mount weld complete Lynas can then use the concentrator to treat the ores and turn it into concentrate. They can then store the Concentrate in Western Australia, until the lamp get given the go ahead by the Malaysian government and NO the concentrate don't have a shelf life and can be stored forever.

     

    Lynas can choose to sell the concentrate to the Japanese if they want BUT of course they would sell it at a lower profit then the refined product once its separated at LAMP.
    29 Apr 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi-

     

    NOURF: Trying to reconcile events pertaining to Northern. They had their first substantial drop last Thursday and last OZ trading day would make second day of down. I expected this down, but thought the news you spoke of previously might alter course...Now wondering if it was no effect /unknown to most...or if there is any form of dilution involved. Do you know the specifics of the Credit Suisse interest?
    27 Apr 2011, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    No dilusion. My understanding now is that Credit Suisse bought HSBC's Geiger Counter fund shares. This means the shares were not bought on the open market but that HSBC and Credit Suisse are currently both top holders. Previously HSBC was listed twice on the top 10 holders listed on the NTU site. I think one of these holdings is now Credit Suisse.
    www.northernuranium.co...

     

    I'd say the current retrace is normal and I see it as a buying opportunity. In such a small name like NTU this beta is to be expected IMO.
    27 Apr 2011, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (382) | Send Message
     
    @HTL, be aware the US dollar made a significant move down against the Aussie dollar (and smaller ones against other currencies ie. the Loonie) in the last 12 hours.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, I saw it tha A.M. I track DXY and AUD/USD daily.

     

    But so far, I've not been able to spot a strong correlation in the moves of LYSCF/LYSDY based on pure currencly conversions.

     

    Maybe just too many moving parts in the pps construction process right now?

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The word is that the Australians are close to raising their interest rates again, as well as adding some new tax burdens to exported commodities.

     

    Bernanke's first ever press conference this afternoon may bear strongly on this topic.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Gabelli cuts MCP from Buy to Hold citing valuation

     

    MCP to report earnings May 10th after the bell. CC at 4:30.
    want to listen?

     

    Investors interested in participating in the live call from the U.S. should dial +1 (888) 428-9507 and reference confirmation number 6752539. Those calling from outside the U.S. should dial +1 (719) 457-2704 and use the same confirmation number. A telephone replay will be available approximately two hours after the call concludes through Tuesday, May 24, 2011 by dialing +1 (877) 870-5176 from the U.S., or +1 (858) 384-5517 from international locations, and entering passcode: 6752539.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (834) | Send Message
     
    Looks like a good time to take some profits and let the blood fly.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP is becoming interesting to me again...

     

    New high point in the low 70's... Heck, nearly hit my $75 estimate, just about 2 years early, that's all...

     

    I still see this one prone to take a fall, but I'll NOT be shorting them, the big guys lurking in the shadows are just too sharp to play games with.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I have decided the Aussie trader is just smarter than here at home.
    I can see the pre-market peeps staring at the headlines trying to make since of them and the bid/ask is unmoved...likely an early and brief up followed by someone reading and finally making since of the fluffy stuff
    27 Apr 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    You know...looking at these opening prices...Those U.S. traders sure don't like to let go of their Lynas shares
    ...Smart!!
    27 Apr 2011, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sometimes the hardest thing to do in a situation like this is...

     

    Nothing. Hold fast and wait.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Softly softly catchee monkey...
    27 Apr 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    any news on GWMGF? it is up....unusual that is why I ask. ;)

     

    Seriously though, it is trading weird...

     

    BIG volume at the open
    27 Apr 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGH): DJ, so I can't C&P yet.

     

    Through LCM (Less Common metals - wholly owned), GWM announces LT co-op agreement with Aichi Steel Corp (ASC), part of the Toyota Group of Companies.

     

    Has been already supplying them - ASC - for 10 years.

     

    ASC undergoing a rapid expansion program.

     

    Agreement allows LT supply of NdFeB alloys derived from REOs from Steenkampskrall. LCM is planning a capacity double right now.

     

    POP?! Eh, ... maybe not.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Here you go...finally a bit of news for GW...to go along with yesterday's plug. Agreement signed to supply rare earth alloys

     

    www.marketwire.com/pre...
    27 Apr 2011, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    that is a great piece of news but it isn't THE news (JV, financing etc) that we are waiting for though but it is sure nice to have more fuel. Throw another log on the fire! :) GW=slow burn.
    27 Apr 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.objectivecapitalco...

     

    London, United Kingdom – 21 April 2011. Great Western Minerals’ (TSX VENTURE:GWG) presentation on the mine-to-market process in rare earths, at Objective Capital’s Rare Earths, Speciality & Strategic Metals Investment Summit has been released today.
    27 Apr 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    247wallst.com/2011/04/...

     

    "At the analyst day, Molycorp’s CEO stressed that there are few viable acquisition targets outside of China in the downstream metals/alloys/magnets areas, and while it tracks an extensive list of junior miners it has yet to come across anything of interest and noted that most deposits contain ore grades that are too low for MCP to consider acquiring"

     

    thought that was interesting....
    27 Apr 2011, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. GWM up about 10% right now...

     

    Do note that they did not split out the good ASC news from the news that they are doubling the AMP line at LCM. I predicted a followup announcement about enlarging the AMP line to match the augmented plans at Steenkampskraal the other day, of course...

     

    This is another example of GWM showing some newbie mistakes when it comes to marketing and keeping their brand in front of the media.

     

    Better would have been a followup announcement in a day or two.

     

    Still, it should yield a nice pop....
    27 Apr 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Some perspective on the HREE situation.
    27 Apr 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Ahh, if only I could trade options on these OTC stocks... The possibilities for serious money lie in those bad boys
    27 Apr 2011, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The molybdenum miner taking an interest in rare earth mentioned in an earlier Concentrator, Geodex Minerals GXMLF.pk, has acquired another rare earth property elsewhere in New Brunswick's Acadian orogeny.
    www.auto-mobi.info/ind...
    www2.gnb.ca/content/gn...
    27 Apr 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for tracking these, VB. I am eyeing these as potential additions to my penny sock drawer...
    27 Apr 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It's also a tungsten miner. Tungsten might have a more lucrative outlook for the next several years than cerium or lanthanum based on the supply constraints outside of China. Their mining area looks favorable for tin and indium, too.
    27 Apr 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've been in NATUF since it was $.15.
    27 Apr 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    If tungsten prices hold up, NATUF should have enough of a market cap to work through their financials, I would think.
    www.infomine.com/commo...
    www.reuters.com/financ...
    27 Apr 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Ucore, up 15%+ on the day at 12:45 EST... nice bounce after getting hammered for a few days.
    27 Apr 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): If close >= $0.855 today, we may be seeing the start of a long slow trend up. That close would break a falling resistance begun 3/25 and showing robust resistance.

     

    A close >= $0.87 breaks through a non-conventional rising resistance from 3/15 that is part of the formation I discussed in my insta on GWM.

     

    This would convert it to a potential support, rising about 1/2 cent/day.

     

    But, it is *not* a conventional trend line construction, so I can't vouch for it's validity.

     

    Volume looks to be supporting a move up. But we *do* know that "reversion to the mean" is common after a good pop. So results are not a given. But a continued move up on steady volume with moderate daily changes would be encouraging, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL, your take on the "non-conventional" interpretation of the trend line as support, and rising about .5 cents per day, is the sort of thing I frequently do with stocks where I have a long relationship. I call the process "organic charting", and fully realize its not really fundamental charting but something more squishy...

     

    Even so, it has kept me in these investments at times.
    27 Apr 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    "Even so, it has kept me in these investments at times"

     

    Generally, to good or bad effect? If you've already tested straying from the conventional path, it might save me some lumps.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, in the case of the REE plays, I believe there's no doubt it has made me some serious gains. I seem to recall your pulling out a few times when the stocks (particularly GWM, but probably Lynas too) took a jump upwards...

     

    I have tried to keep the blog up to date about my moves, when I make them...

     

    Of course, I consider these particular REE stocks as perhaps THE example of plays which stray "from the conventional path". This is not to say that I don't watch their charts, I do, and as you know, I also keep an eye on what happens down under...

     

    But they are unpredictable because of the massive geopolitical element - the fadish and random media interaction - the manipulation by the Boyz - and now the wild west personae of many of the CEO's, like Engdahl and Curtis.

     

    HTL, I'm not for a moment running down what you do. I have come to really prize your analytical input, whenever I encounter it.
    27 Apr 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    TB, that IAALF in your sock drawer, take a look at it today. It is having a very good day! I wonder what's going on.
    27 Apr 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, whattayknowaboutdat.

     

    I actually have it in TWO sock drawers, my long term account and my sock drawer in my trading account. Not a huge position, but its good to see it over $.20.

     

    Another odd energy play, via the berrylium/nuclear fuel rod tech they own the rights to...
    27 Apr 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    This is one of those instances where I think about taking my profit, but OTOH, I wonder if this is just the start of something big.
    27 Apr 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This stock is a gamble. What I did was, upon the initial investment, lay in a sizeable bet with the idea to take profits off the table at the first good opportunity. I managed to do this, and still retain a nice (though not large) core holding which cost me net zero (actually, net minus, my existing shares can drop to zero and I am still holding profits overall).

     

    This was BEFORE, however, the UD Japanese reactor meltdown. I doubt I would take the same risk at this point...

     

    I am holding long term, and I MIGHT add some trading stock if at some point the company's news was rosy, but the market overall down. This condition might occur if we see a correction this summer, of course...
    27 Apr 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now I'm looking for GWM to hold above $.90...

     

    Did we ever figure out what happened with Engdahl's BNN interview?
    27 Apr 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    never found it. Maybe the guy was just blowing smoke and it never was.

     

    The key for me with GWM is a close above .87. I would be happy with that and then the next big thing is .93. That will be telling. That would break the neckline of the raggedy (perhaps not real) Inverse head and shoulder. THAT would make me really happy.
    27 Apr 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Ditto on not finding it.

     

    We got the close we wanted. Now we need to see if it consolidates in the $0.83-$0.93 again or takes a different tack.

     

    I'm still of a mind that the broadening-whatever is in play and if GWM is becoming more adept at handling media issues, as TB mentioned he would like to see, that pattern portends a very strong move when it breaks to the upside.

     

    I think I've also mentioned that this latest low on 4/20, being above the low of 3/15, also indicates a stronger move when a break up occurs.

     

    Since I still don't believe in the H&S, for the reasons I mentioned, how 'bout this one: triple bottom!

     

    Remove or truncate that 3/15 low and we've three almost identical low points.

     

    According to Bulkowski, they perform well in a bull market, have a high success rate and he does say to allow a little variation in the bottoms. The "mountains" could be a little better matched, but perfection is infrequent.

     

    Of course, we never know on any patterns until it breaks the <whatever>, in this case "the highest peak between the valleys", $0.969 in this case.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    "I'm not for a moment running down what you do"

     

    Oh, I knew that. I just thought maybe since you had been using the non-conventional chart aspects longer than I, I presume, you might let me know how it worked out.

     

    What led me to do it was following your commentary and deciding, of my own volition, that the mantra from the TA crowd that "All you need is charts" (pretend I put a link here to an old Beatles tune on Youtube) was not entirely accurate.

     

    For me, modifying my use of charts was the easiest path with which to experiment while I began trying to learn to consider things that were ... "foreign" (pun intended) to me.

     

    I don't believe even the modified chart techniques can encompass all that you include, but it does add a small additional indicator that seems to prod me into saying "But what about xxx".

     

    That may be the biggest benefit I've gotten so far from that non-conventional effort.

     

    And my first positive result, I think, was when I told Maya that AXPW would come back up into those raggedy trend lines I was working some weeks back.

     

    The sad part is that I can't nail down *why* I judged it that way when indications said otherwise.

     

    Maybe that's experience starting to develop where some things you don't recognize become "innate" and you can't put a finger on it. But that means that I might be at greater risk of a poor decision too!

     

    Oh, well.

     

    Thanks for taking the time. Another little nugget on the long path.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have a very odd method, and I know it, and I despair of even describing it, but maybe I should...

     

    I weight things obcessively, prioritizing, making lists, margin notes, and reading everything I can find. My research is, I think, very through, but not very regimented, and as for documentation...

     

    Let's just say that I usually can find the source again if I look hard enough.

     

    I put a TON of effort into making the intial decision to look at a given sector or area, then I comb through that initial info. to get hints as to good prospects. Since finding the 'Gades and SA, who at the time just happened to be well ahead of my own poor efforts (over 2 years ago, I was groping toward the REE narrative, NVAX and micro-pharma, miners (especially silver, but also gold and palladium), and cutting edge tech. Needless to say, the kind senior 'Gades had the goods, and I have been building upon that base ever since.

     

    When reviewing charts I first try to evaluate the particular stock or group of stocks, depending on whether I am shopping for a new buy - tracking a future prospect - or monitoring a current investent. Each eventuality merits different treatment. The further out my thinking, the longer base I start with on the charts (whatever that might be, though unfortunately for the REEs, this is short due to the youth of the whole sector). So for future prospects, I start with long charts, then run through the usual setups (5 year, 2 year, 1 year, 6 month, 3 month, etc). I am looking for patterns, trading channels, and places where the charts show the stock deviating from the macro background.

     

    Often I have found that a thorough read-in for the sector/industry/stock will twig me to a historic or geopolitical event or condition, and then I will see something very similar occurring now, or perhaps predicted short term. Depending on how I might regard this narrative (which may or may NOT be discreetly linked to the charts), I may use this as a key determining factor in my decision-making process. I DO review the event(s) and seek those time stamps among the charts, to see if they did, indeed, create a historic alteration in the stock price.

     

    So, I like to team up narrative news and chart history, at least in a general way. The charts will, of course, tell one when something happened, and perhaps give clues (though often contradictory or neutral, as you so often describe) as to future moves, but I have found that overlaying the applicable (or, more subtly, the "similar") news/narrative often highlights chart features which "more conventional" chart techniques discard.

     

    When long stretches of ambiguous news/no news periods transpire, however, I have long found that even these wild REE stocks settle into trading patterns amenable to sound fundamental chart analysis.
    27 Apr 2011, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    I don't do this often, and what I'm about to say is not vacuous flattery, but ...

     

    I'm printing this comment so I can study it.

     

    It's this kind of willingness to share ... you know the rest.

     

    Thank you!

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, don't blame me if it gives you a headache! It gives me one constantly...
    27 Apr 2011, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    "Lynas report will take time"

     

    "An independent panel tasked with reviewing health and safety aspects of Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd’s operations in Kuantan is expected to present its report within a year, said Deputy Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Fadillah Yusof.
    “The whole process of identifying the international experts and completing the job will take about a year,” Fadillah said in response to a question from Senator Chew Lee Giok while winding up points raised by senators debating the royal address."

     

    thestar.com.my/news/st...

     

    I don't know if this is legit or not - would be very strange for them to change the timetable from one month to a year within the span of a few days - but it's out there.
    27 Apr 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is a great deal of political maneuvering going on. Its also unclear that the results from the review will be used to block the "initial 3 year permit" which is already in hand. It may well be that the two things will move in tandem rather than sequentially, ie, the blue panel review taking place even while the plant operates.
    27 Apr 2011, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Boy, that "moving in tandem" would sure tick of the local opposition.

     

    Might be some nasty knock-on effects from that.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. from the article, "Until the review is completed and the Government makes a decision, no pre-operating licence would be issued to Lynas by the Atomic Energy Licensing Board"
    27 Apr 2011, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): It's like volleys of cannonballs being lobbed across the river!

     

    "Lynas confident Malaysian processing plant will proceed"

     

    www.theaustralian.com....

     

    Thanks & H.T. to Onthepond at InvestorsHub for the post.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have real doubts as to the trust that should be placed in this odd article...

     

    "The review will ensure that construction of the facility fully complies with international safety standards and Lynas will also not be allowed to import any raw material from Australia."

     

    Lets hope this bald paragraph should read "...until the review is completed". If the idea is that the LAMP will NEVER import raw materials from Australia, Lynas might as well hand the keys to the Malay government and call in the lawyers.

     

    But then we have this:

     

    "“The levels of radioactivity of the waste is the same or almost of the same level as normal Malaysian soil,” said Fadillah."

     

    SO what's the big hurrah about?

     

    Politics.

     

    Someone wants something, and presumably there is some horse trading to be done between the left hand (ministry of technology and innovation, home of the "1 year plan") and the right hand (ministry of industry, home of the "1 month plan").

     

    They can't both be right.

     

    Frankly, I was wondering if we might see something like this as the plant neared completion. No better time to dig for some additional baksheesh than when the barbarian big noses are lusting for the payoff...

     

    You have to wonder if these bozos really care that the entire planet is watching, and making plans accordingly...

     

    This could give Malaysia a real headache when their boosters overseas suddenly have a hard time getting prospects to return their phone calls...
    27 Apr 2011, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just for kicks I've been reviewing the 3.4 mSv radiation exposure (for non-industry worker) standards....

     

    There are some very interesting quibbles involved here...

     

    Did you know that a major component in background radiation exposure are cosmic rays? And they vary depending on the activity level of our sun. More active sol, higher solar wind, lower cosmic rays, lower exposure...

     

    Less active sol, lower solar wind...

     

    And so on. Pretty interesting stuff. Goes to the answer of "which came first, the chicken or the egg (or the warmist version, the sun or global warming). Needless to say for the sentients in the audience, the sun came first, not anthro global warming, and the cause and effect inversion is obvious....

     

    But back to radiation exposure...

     

    Folks who live near sea level (which includes much of Malaysia's population, btw) get enhanced protection from cosmic rays, because of the shelter given by Earth's atmosphere and magnetic shield, whereas those who live at altitude (or spend a lot of time flying around on airplanes) get additional exposure.

     

    Then there is that ageold variable, individual choice.

     

    Folks who spend lots of time scampering around in the sunshine (particularly at altitude, but there are only so many snow bunnies to go around, eh?) get additional exposure from that big nuclear reactor in the sky, the sun. Those that lurk in caves (or inside AMP factories) get less.

     

    Finally, as I pointed out in another comment, people who spend lots of time in public buildings (which tend to be constructed out of high quality materials like granite, magnetite, and so forth) get extra exposure because the building materials are naturally (if slightly) radioactive. Since bureaucrats haunt public buildings like remarkably determined ghosts, they might want to consider leaving those radioactive emitters and spending some time in an environment where their radiation exposure would be lower (like the Lynas AMP).

     

    Or maybe not.

     

    I really don't care what happens to bureaucrats as a general rule.
    27 Apr 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I just wanted to check in this afternoon and make sure everyone is having fun!
    27 Apr 2011, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Be aware that Lynas in the U.S. is no longer in sync with (REMX).

     

    REMX finished up 0.83% and was never looking very weak throughout the day as it started running up at 10:36 and never looked back.

     

    Lynas was down a fairly substantial volume, 26.2% above the 25 day moving average. Smoothing out the volume bump of 3.15 by distributing its excess over the other twenty-four days still leaves us over the average 13.77%.

     

    Every TA indicator except accum/distr says it should be going down, but we know that the charts have been unreliable of late.

     

    Volume was almost the same as yesterday's "up" day. But yesterday had a very narrow range (4 cents), and indication of possible coming change. Add a wider range (9 cents) on similar volume on a down day, like today, and we have a "classic" indication that instability (volatility) is the primary concern right now.

     

    Just be alert and aware.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As MCP's market cap has grown, its proportionate percentage of REMX has also increased. AVL and REE are other large components, and we all know how shaky their positions are. REMX thus can easily move opposite Lynas, and in fact will logically do so anytime the hot money types surge one way or the other (for a long time, I was able to spot this flow as it targeted the "flavor of the day").

     

    MCP's multiple within the REMX mix means their effect is amplified, of course. A small move upward by MCP can therefore counter a large move down by Lynas.
    27 Apr 2011, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Aha! That "'Splains it Lucy"!

     

    Thanks,
    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Im having fun!
    I think Im conculding, being a new comer, that nourf is more of a risk than GWM for along term hold. Any votes?
    27 Apr 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not sure of that at all. Of course, I am thinking that NOURF will eventually be sold, and probably at a higher multiple than what we might see from GWM.

     

    I also think that the effects of the tsunami/meltdown (tsunamidown?) will fade, and in another year the landscape may look very different.

     

    Awkward as the truth is to the renewable green energy folks, nuclear energy has a solid and growing niche, and the Russians are just done beating plowshares (nuclear fuel rods) our of swords (nuclear warheads).
    27 Apr 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I think both of these will pay well eventually. If asked right now...on this day. I would lean NOURF as less risky. JMO

     

    And from a trade/hold perspective short-term I like NOURF performance better. This is what yo want to see in a stock. Steady holding patterns, followed by nice rises which hold, for the most part. NOURF stayed in the .40s, then .60s then jumped recently to the .90s...bumped up a bit and will now likely hold in the low .90s for a spell...likely brief IMO

     

    FF, look back on Chi remarks last concentrator for more info on NOURF.
    28 Apr 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (NOURF): Counterpoint: very thinly traded stocks such as this often hold a certain level for a long time and then suddenly make unexpected substantial moves. With such low volume, they are not amenable to TA based on charts.

     

    For these reasons I treat them as highly volatile risky and speculative trades or investments.

     

    I think they tend to both pay off big and lose big.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would suggest that any TA be performed vs their home exchange listing. Much higher volume, and support in most trading platforms which is not available for many pink sheet/OTC symbols.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): BTW, today's volume on this up move was ~7% higher than the 25 day average and reversed the falling volume seen since 4/20.

     

    The question becomes whether or not the buyers or sellers were exhausted today. Obviously there was a lot of profit taking today. But there were lots of buyers in the queue to absorb the willingness to sell.

     

    If the selling willingness dissipates while there is still a larger buying desire, we could see this break surprisingly strongly out of its erstwhile channel of $0.83-$0.93, or at least challenge the upper bound again.

     

    If the buyers were exhausted, we should quickly drop back to at least $0.83 again.

     

    At this moment, *all* TA indicators are turning to or already in a bullish stance. Stochastic entered overbought and if it can "float" in that range for a while, we should see strong price action.

     

    As mentioned earlier in another post, pps closed above two trend lines I had been using. I had not mentioned before, because the pattern was too young to be assured, that we were working a "flag" off the "pole" of 4/20-4/21. This is also a bullish indicator. But I couldn't trust it since it was only two days old (four including the pole, but that's not safe).

     

    If there's many TA-based buyers out in the wild, we might see a big run because they can see one or more of everything we've been discussing so far.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2011, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm thinking its about time for that BNN (or comparable) interview with Engdahl...

     

    No really new news needed...

     

    Just a bit of face time.

     

    Shoot.

     

    I should be charging them for this...
    27 Apr 2011, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if people like Engdahl, NC, Smith or their minions ever read this blog.
    27 Apr 2011, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, like I said, I - WE - should send them a bill!
    28 Apr 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys!
    27 Apr 2011, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5853) | Send Message
     
    Some thoughts...

     

    I would think MCP and the big money behind MCP would benifit quite a bit from a long delay in getting the Lynas LAMP approved or even cancelled. Perhaps that is one of the reasons the 'independent' review process got fast tracked - big juice.

     

    Perhaps we should starting thinking of MCP as a LYSDY hedge.

     

    What would Lynas do if the LAMP was put into an indefinite delay? They need a processing plant, where would they build it and how long would it take, and how much would it cost? I wonder if Lynas has a penalty clause in the event that the permits could not be obtained?

     

    I would think some of the Lynas delivery contracts are for finished metals, not just concentrate... I would hope escape language was written into those delivery contracts.

     

    I am getting the impression that the risk profile of Lynas with respect to their LAMP project is changing...
    27 Apr 2011, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if they could contract with the Chinese to process their concentrates.
    27 Apr 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Backup plan: Neo. Also, the Japanese have their own AMP facilities, and prefer them (quality control) over buying finished product in most cases.

     

    Finally, I believe MOST of their near-term contracts are for oxides - and many of the others could be negotiated, given the circumstances, in a pinch.

     

    Lynas still has time to work out that portion of their infrastructure...

     

    But not endless time.

     

    1 Year would be about 6 months more than planned, but I am convinced that the Malay government will stop playing CYA eventually, and probably in time to match Lynas' ability to actually crank up the LAMP.

     

    All in all, it would of course be better if these issues COULD be settled within a month, for everyone's sake. The black eye lthis nonsense is giving Malaysia as "the gateway to Asia" is beyond calculation. They want to be a viable alternative to China, not an also-ran to Vietnam.
    28 Apr 2011, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    ucore up 13.5% today....
    28 Apr 2011, 12:45 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    Question on ASX Prices: I see that Lynas shows a drop of $.05 and closed @ $2.16 last night. That would mean it started at $2.21, but it opened at $2.25.

     

    Alkane closed at $2.37, showing a drop of $.13, but it opened @ $2.39.

     

    What am I missing?
    28 Apr 2011, 06:53 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    Close and open are more or less independent. Close provides a *potential* starting point for the market makers that enter initial orders to get an open established. As bids and offers come in, that open price may move away from the close.

     

    The change amount is measured from the prior close, not the open.

     

    So looking at my post way above, you see a close of A$2.21. A drop of A$0.05 indicates that it closed at A$2.16. All is as it should be.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2011, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX closed down 0.04% last evening. Lynas was down 2.26% on reduced volume. The 20 day SMA looks like it's still ~$2.40 and still slightly rising. With the volume still reasonably strong, I would anticipate that price continues moving southward a bit more until volume gets deep into the doldrums again. If this plays out, it'll be a long while before the 20 day SMA and price join up again.

     

    A currency conversion of the close would yield a US$2.3535.

     

    From yesterday:
    ----------------------...
    Meanwhile, the currency strength continues to tip against the U.S. dollar. A converted equivalent closing price would put the U.S. price of LYSCF at US$2.39, meaning we would likely see a 15 cent drop from the prior close of US$2.54.

     

    There is the question of who's leading. Did the OZ price drop in sympathy to recent U.S. price action? The magnitude of the drop would seem to answer no. But that doesn't necessarily mean that U.S. price is following, although I believe it will be indicated that we are following.
    ----------------------...
    Since our low was $2.39, there does seem to be some correlation to what the currency conversion shows. However, looking at the U.S. HLOC prices, we can't see a tight linkage to those values.

     

    We can conclude, I believe, that directionally and, to a degree, in magnitude, OZ is leading right now.

     

    If we match the percentage drop seen in OZ, we would have a close of $2.39 (interesting to see that number again). I still expect to see our nearby price support points of $2.38 and $2.35 hit near-term. With yesterday's U.S. volume and range being relatively large, today might be the day. However, even though the various technical indications are on the weak side, we know that they (I?) have not been doing well at estimating the price moves. So I can't so I've much faith in all that stuff for now.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results (gap due to holidays).

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/20..... 4/21..... 4/27...... 4/28
    Last...... 2.400... 2.450... 2.210.... 2.160
    $+/-...... 0.110... 0.050. -0.240... -0.050
    Bid........ 2.400... 2.440.... 2.210.... 2.150
    Offer..... 2.410... 2.450.... 2.230.... 2.170
    Open.... 2.340... 2.460.... 2.320.... 2.250
    High...... 2.410.. 2.510..... 2.340.... 2.280
    Low...... 2.330.. 2.430..... 2.210..... 2.140
    Vol. 23.182M 18.79M 47.403M 38.218M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15....... 4/18....... 4/19
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010.. -0.070... -0.170
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540..... 2.480..... 2.300
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570..... 2.520..... 2.350
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590..... 2.540..... 2.390
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510..... 2.410..... 2.290
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M 28.973M 40.520M

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2011, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    DXY: Saw 72 handle @ 07:48, $72.92. Now back to $73.23.

     

    Right now, A$1.0882. Relative to the dollar, I don't know whether to call the Aussie a rocket or the U.S. dollar a homesick brick.

     

    All the fixed income folks living with (lying) COLA adjustments must be *soooo* thankful for Mr. Bernanke right now. He's picked whom to slaughter, financially, for the benefit of his ... "target audience".

     

    Yes, I invest and trade, but I'd gladly sacrifice the market and banksters for the greater good.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2011, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    Yes, of course. I guess that was a pre-coffee question.
    Thanks
    28 Apr 2011, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17447) | Send Message
     
    I had such moments. An extreme example from many years ago was when I was writing something. I had to agonize over the spelling of "door".

     

    For some reason it didn't look right. I finally went to the dictionary.

     

    Considering that I've always been decent at spelling, this was a real "glitch".

     

    HardToLove
    28 Apr 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Well, this will be no technical analysis, but...

     

    Last night broke a trend. Lynas strength (mostly in the US) has been held up by expectation (or fear of missing something)
    ...and days like yesterday where US fell but held up a bit have been followed by OZ up days (even when unexpected) which then in turn produced huge up in US next day.
    Oz looked upward all right in the a.m....but couldn't hold.
    Now, REEs were down there (likely last day IMO) but there is definitely not only fear of missing ride but perhaps even slightly greater fear of more downdraft which turned Lynas back red last night. Since Oz broke trend....we will test the mettle of the U.S. Lynas investor to keep this propped up on hope of Mt. Weld announcement or let it come back in line with Oz where it once resided.
    28 Apr 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I will be adding good chunk of NOURF today and taking full-bite add of Lynas in longer-term account and two half-bites in others

     

    ...Delicious!
    28 Apr 2011, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Really thinking about adding ISVLF and maybe more GPL this morning...any opinions?
    28 Apr 2011, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13445) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK folks, the new Concentrator is ready:

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    This one is getting full, slow, and ready to retire!

     

    Please move along to the new Concnetrator, invaluable investment data this way, please move along...

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    28 Apr 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
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