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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, April 28, 2011 160 comments
    Apr 28, 2011 9:26 AM





    Some ranking charts, just because I haven't done this in a while.  The REE charts are all 3 month charts, and pretty self-explanatory.

    Take note that I have included a 5 day chart of a silver play I just completed.  I moved out of silver miners over the past few weeks, and into physical, royalty stream (NYSE:SLW) and paper (NYSEARCA:SLV).  I am not happy to be doing this, but I saw what was happening to the miners, and made the move, and the charts tell the tale.  My 2 favorite silver miners, both of which I exited, are GPL and AG, and they have under-performed physical, paper and royalty streams recently.  I play to keep the physical (of course), and trade around the royalty stream (SLW has an intresting history as regards the other 2 forms, and I anticipate it will soon go through one of its cycles where it outperforms the paper eft and the miners both).
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The last comment from the prior Concentrator, by RainH2O:

     

    "Really thinking about adding ISVLF and maybe more GPL this morning...any opinions?"
    28 Apr 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rain, check out the 2nd chart I posted above. Note how the silver miners are underperforming the paper etf (SLV) and the royalty stream company (SLW).

     

    Right now (and for the past few weeks), physical has ruled the roost.

     

    I expect silver miners to catch up eventually, but for now I would suggest you examine other options, too.
    28 Apr 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As for the miners, I like AG best, and GPL second.
    28 Apr 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Author’s reply » Observe GWM's behavior this morning...

     

    The pop from their news release is showing clear signs of profit taking - another reason to take such items and string them out over time rather than dump them in one large lump.

     

    AVL knows how to do this (though they appear to have reached the end of their ride until they can come up with something concrete to put forth again), and the MCP spinmeisters are adept.

     

    GWM needs to get on the stick. This is basic stuff...
    28 Apr 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Does GWM need to follow AVL's strategy, I wonder?
    blogs.forbes.com/joanl.../
    28 Apr 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Overall, no. They are too dissimilar. But as to marketing, its all important, particularly now...

     

    GWM is actively seeking a joint venture partner to help them build out Steenkampskraal. Their weak stock price and slack capital reserve means they are in a terrible negotiating position. They need to play the game to land the fish, and time is NOT on their side.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I would have liked to have them spell out TOYOTA for the masses.

     

    I am not upset at the price action this morning. It had a big day yesterday (up 8-10% with big vol) and a pullback on little vol. as traders take the money and run for the day. Not a problem. Do not want to see a close under .87 however. I think traders still see this as a hit and run so until that changes this is what will happen. I am still great encouraged. :)
    28 Apr 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Ditched the GPL add idea right after I posted it. I added to ISVLF...keeping eye on it. I sold my SLW and AG during downturn just in case there was more panic down (which I thought was likely and was wrong).
    This was right before I started reading about the Silver/Fed announcement links and posted that on the instablog. Everyone assumed this was a move based wholly on the margin announcements and "bubble bursting" by force when there seemed to be some good indication alot were pulling out to take profits as a hedge against possible Fed suprise. If I had figured that out a few hours sooner...I would have held those as I didn't expect a suprise...but more of the same..now don't want back in at these prices and am using powder elsewhere...will add again on pullback. Iwould likely take your advice and go with SLV and SLW.

     

    I think we will see a push to try and get just under 60 coinciding with QE2 end which may drive some out of Silver...short-term
    28 Apr 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Situation is fluid, risky, and I am thinking a general market correction of 15% June or July. We might see a PM correction of the same size or larger...

     

    Gold will lead the way down, when it happens, as I believe silver is grossly distorted due to the long history of manipulation which is now followed by potential spot shortages and a sporadic short squeeze.

     

    Miners are MUCH more vulnerable to factors like energy/labor cost inflation (both of which often work the opposite way for physical/paper/royalty stream), which can explain the odd picture of record prices while miners go down in value.

     

    Its also good to understand WHY this is happening. (This is VERY over-simplified for brevity, and yes, I know its not that simple, but...)

     

    Physical bullion is pricing as an existing commodity sitting in storage (in large part, this is the active portion of the pricing which I feel is at the root of the pricing question). It is widely believed that the short term demand is much higher than the available silver in storage - so supply and demand is driving prices up for physcial metal. This is GREATLY complicated by all the things like future bets and manipulation and so forth, but at the root, its the truth that IF there were plenty of silver in storage, the price would be a good deal lower.

     

    Miners are largely priced according to their net profit picture looking forward (among other things, but this is what I am hanging my hat on today), and those profits are liable to be squeezed by high inlation, particularly since mines are huge energy consumers and sensitive to labor costs (which in turn are sensitive to general inflation). These factors LIFT the price of existing metal, of course, and has no effect on paper ETF's based upon the metal markets, or Royalty Stream companies who have locked in very low base costs from deals made a decade ago.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I am still in Pinetree and don't really love it. Thinking about pulling now...any reason to expect a leg up soon before I pull trigger?
    28 Apr 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have taken profits on PNPFF, but I am holding my core plus some trading stock for now.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
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    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: Do you hold Dacha?
    and, if so, what's your take on it?
    28 Apr 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No. I keep checking them out from time to time, but I think they have gotten out ahead of the market. Not for me, at least not yet, but maybe one day soon...
    28 Apr 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Notwithstanding the usual Canadian pump from Byron Capital, I think Dacha is dead money. If REE prices went up and down their storage model would work. But as it is they will have to buy back at higher prices every time they sell. So as a business model currently, it is very hard to "trade" REE for earnings. Thus, the NPV is good but the growth is missing.
    When the REE market grows and matures there may be a place for their concept and they will deserve a look. But for now they seem like dead money in a booming industry IMO.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Author’s reply » Given the gap between Chinese export prices and world prices, there is a considerable markup, assuming they can elbow into that very select group which drinks directly from the source.

     

    I agree, though, overall (and its another reason I don't own them), because I think they have a very limited access to the well.

     

    I would like to see long term contracts with companies like Lynas, MCP, GWM and so on right now - establishing them in a variety of revenue streams at prices negotiated BEFORE the current runup.

     

    This would also serve as substantial backup to their stated belief in these physical metals as a long term invesetment.

     

    They should emulate the likes of SLW or SNDXF.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    QSURF had a nice rise yesturday. Now its leading AVL, and hasn't yet been listed on a major exchange.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Author’s reply » AVL had to sag (the $10 analyst prediction was puffery, imo). QSURF is getting close to ITS intermediate peak, too...

     

    I have just a nice core position in Quest, and I will be adding to it for some trading stock on any strong dip or correction.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Dines contributed to the pop yesterday. Remember that AVL has 50% more outstanding shares than Quest. To have an equal market cap Quest's share price will have to be 150% of Avalon. I think they will make that once the AMEX listing is announced. Company has said it will be before May 15.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Anyone have any insight as to why Amex listing taking so long? They won't sag soon if that comes on top of this current rally. Was originally predicted around end of March.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
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    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    I heard the listing will take place early May.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
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    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Me too, but it was not a "reliable source"..

     

    Also, I believe much of the current price has that expectation priced into the stock. The news should generate a pop, but it may be brief and retrace soon thereafter as those who have been waiting for this event take profits.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just spotted a dip for QSURF, got in at $8.99 for some trading shares...
    28 Apr 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB...rarely disagree with you, but have been watching Quest for quite some time (as I know you have). In a normally functioning market I would agree with you, but we live in a phony world full of fluffy stuff and drama.
    The market has been waiting and watching for the Amex for some time and yet prices remained in the $6 range...even when most loooked for the announcement into March prices stayed as did volume for the most part. I believe the current run-up has primarily more to do with more people recognizing Quest and it's value (along with a bit of anticipation for Amex mixed in) and marketing ala Avalon, but believe we will see 10-11+ easy after announcement and move.
    Your scenario is reasonable, but I believe it inconsistent with Quest performance to this point.
    And where does reason fit in all this anyway if indeed they will be treated similar to Avalon?
    Just MHO
    28 Apr 2011, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    Not everyone sees Quest's value. I think they will not produce. I think the costs to extract from Strange Lake will be too high for the TREO numbers. I also think the project will take too long. Better sources of HREE concentrate will beat them to the market and drop prices below their economic feasibility costs IMO.

     

    I hope it works out for you guys, but I think Quest it is living on the REE hype and the theory that all that list on the AMEX will fly. I think the sector is past that stage. REE will be a great market and HREE prices have the best long term outlook. But I still want fundamentals in the space. A lot of people love Quest. I respect that. But I can't build the case based on my research that's all.
    28 Apr 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I find perception of time-frame to be a common discussion-confuser here...I should be more specific in relation to that aspect of post...sry
    I was speaking short-term for the Quest price...and then one has to decide what to do with it.
    I, personally plan on scaling back some holdings as others come into production as I think much of the "potential" appeal of these will wear off as reality sets in
    I think of the late 90s and what we saw with techs
    If you were disciplined and crafty enough you could have made good money on some companies which ceased to exist after the burst and held those who had staying power (choosing was the difficult part)
    Same is true for those who came into the likes of REE and certain peers early.
    Now, we will see M&A, some step up, some disappear altogether and others fly
    Each of us will have to decide who to hold and who to fold and when
    Quest will be one I will hold past the Amex listing...ride it up a bit..and likely sell most and watch the rest
    My advice to others who can only afford to purchase a few is to buy the ones most feel will produce and hold them....forever - forgetting the rest
    28 Apr 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    In your opinion, what miner is better than Quest in the heavy rare earth arena?
    28 Apr 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I know many on the concentrator think this way, but not me. In such a great sector the biggest winners long term will be the producers that get to market first with strong tons per annum numbers . A large mine life with integration will help long term as well.

     

    But taking your tech example, if you owned Microsoft, Intel, or Cisco you got mammoth gains and plenty of time to get out. But if you owned eyballsonly.com, you were the first crushed with the least overall rise. On a small scale, the same story cycles time and again in junior miners from one commodity to the next. This has shaped much of my approach.

     

    Right now only the worst REE stocks have not gone up much. But when production starts the REE price rise will moderate and the investors will be more selective. At that point the fundamentals will drive big gains and the pipe dreams will be left behind. To profit in that environment I have learned to stay with less stocks and only the good stories or it is hard to know when to sell.

     

    I mean if you own Stans, Quest, or Ucore you have seen good gains with the volatility. But will you know when the price is not coming back? Or will you try to sell Stans at $3 because it has been there before? Will you say I'll wait for Ucore to get another government announcement and flip it then? If you did that with uranium stocks after the big run you were left holding the bag.

     

    Same thing with iron ore in June 2008. Or copper in July 2008. I bought Fortescue metals in 2006 for pennies on the ASX. And on a June night in 2008 the thing hit A$12 and I took a walk in the neighborhood with my wife. I told her that night "I should sell, but it's finally doing what I always knew it would. I think I'll stay till they list an ADR like Rio and BHP." Well, it never happened. It did stay a great company with China contracts (that ASIC says Twiggy was fibbing about). But because of the GFC I got out at $7 and lost about half of the gains in no time flat. I learned from that. And I did not learn to diversify into a lot of pipe dreams. I learned if you are not fast you will miss a lot. I also saw that Vale, Rio Tinto, and BHP holders all had a lot more time to get out. And Oz Minerals holders had even less time.

     

    Traders make brokers rich and few know when to leave. Most can look back on their gain/loss totals provided for taxes at the end of the year and see that they left trades too early and got in too late when a sector was hot. And they got in too early and left too late when the sector cooled. And if they are very honest with themselves, they will see if they made one or two buys and sells rather that going in and out, they would be paying less taxes and brokerage fees. That's MO. Good luck all.
    28 Apr 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some good points from Chi. Trading needs to be done with discipline. Those of us who have done this over a long period of time and evolved protective measures need to share them, I suppose...

     

    One thing I routinely do is take profits. Seriously, after a good run up in price, take some off the top. After this becomes a habit you will avoid riding a stock into the ground. Now when I have a stock up 20%, I start pulling out profits, and continue doing this until I get down to a core where my average cost per share is as low as possible (preferably zero, or minus with profits sitting along with free stock). Anyone who has ever had double in a stock, and thought "I could sell half" and the rest would be zero net cost", and did NOT do that, knows what Chi and I are talking about.

     

    I take pains to differentiate betweent the investments (Lynas, GWM) and the trades (HREEF, GOLDF) in this sector.

     

    I believe we are approaching a key nexus, where new ex-China production will finally come on line (Lynas), but where it will yet be too little too late to avert a severe supply crunch.

     

    We are liable to see some amazing opportunities for profits when that happens, but also some very risky situations for traders (or worse yet, folks INVESTING in TRADES, which is a no-no, imo).

     

    I'm currently up a good bit on a trade involving HREEF, about 10%, though my plan was to pull 20% out of the effort before pulling the ripcord. I may depart early, or I may wait, but I will NOT become invested.
    28 Apr 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    NTU,
    GW (Hoidas Lake),
    ALK,
    maybe MTCEF
    28 Apr 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't NTU face some of the same issues as Quest, in that its in a far off locale, with little infrastructure? How does NTUs heavy rare earth composition and size compare to Quests? When will NTU start production?
    Thanks
    28 Apr 2011, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    NTU is drilling right now. But historical data suggests finds could be with a TREO around 5% (top samples 8.55%) and over 85% HREE with xenotime ore that has had an 89% recovery rate in testing. But NTU is very junior. They do not have a timetable yet. But if the drill results are in the ballpark of the historical results, NTU could be in production of concentrate by 2014-2015 IMO. Most would say 2016 is more likely. I am bumping that timeline up because Browns Range and John Galt each have good infrastructure. And considering JPM, HSBC, UBS, and Credit Suisse are already in the stock, funding looks like a workable hurdle.

     

    www.northernuranium.co...
    28 Apr 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My preferred cutoff for straight REE plays is 1.5%, else I tend to discount the deposit and look at it as a trade...

     

    UNLESS there are other minerals present, like Uranium and it may work as a U mine with REE byproduct (or, as is likely to happen with the Crown Deposit at Mount Weld, a niobium/tantalum/titanium mine with REE byproducts).

     

    5% is a really high treo number, placing their deposit in the upper level (MCP, LYC, GWM's Steenkampskraal, and a very few others, even in China)... For the sake of caution, I would not hang my hat on NTU hitting a 5% cutoff with loads of ore, but even 3% would be very good, and particularly with a rich HREE mix, so there is some room for their results to settle and still be excellent.

     

    Quest has a solid 1.7% deposit with good HREE numbers (with 7 year's worth of ore identified at this grade, plus ample lower grade ore cutting off at about 1.2%), by comparison.

     

    Young (junior) is Northern, and with a long way to go, even with the drilling and sampling programs to come, but as time goes on and it becomes clear that even the Japanese disaster, though it has wounded the nuclear power industry, has NOT destroyed it...

     

    The overall situation for Uranium mining worldwide is still in a state of flux, though, so its best to keep a weather eye out.
    28 Apr 2011, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I knew this would draw a response from you, Chi. I have great respect for your strategy and think it wise. You strike me as a pure fundamentalist who looks for sound reasoning for solid, long-term growth and payout and have no tolerance for pretenders.
    I am trying to learn how to trade and take profits as I am clearly not as adept at that as I am locating good long-term investments.
    I have always had a pretty good handle on finding good long-term choices, just seem to like dabbling in the others a bit.
    I cannot disagree with your points and have been learning a bit of that myself at times....
    Thanks
    28 Apr 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    This is an add-on to my response to Chi:
    I am learning soooo much and need to continue to hear words of truth. Chi sums up part of my own challenges. I have described myself as a confused long-term trader.
    Would like do what I believe you do well, TB, as I clearly have little interest in solely buying and holding long-term.
    I would like to (with discipline as you noted) identify good buy and holds for long-term while using added trading blocks and extra powder to move in and around those and others which are purely trades
    And, as Chi pointed out...do it with a minimal/controlled frequency of trading...not getting carried away.
    I have probably learned more from CPST (with HTs help) than anything else pertaining to this subject.
    The approach I used with that stock (and a few others) helps form a model for me when compared to some of the ways I have handled others.
    The difference is the emotion with th REEs....need to treat them like any other investments and quit viewing them as so special (hurts to admit that)
    Thanks for the great responses and dialogue and for "mentoring" me through this painfully slow learning curve!
    28 Apr 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    So you like Alkane a bit, Chi?

     

    Also, been wondering what you like non-ree if you ever get a chance to visit the Insta.
    28 Apr 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If you key in on the comments of HTL, you will see a frequent allusion to what he is doing in this regard. Its NOT easy.

     

    My suggestion would be to REALLY spend a lot of effort identifying the sector(s) you want to invest in - then figure out how much of your portfolio will go into each sector, thus establishinig an investment budget of sorts. Try not to constantly "overspend" any of these budgets, for instance, and use good discipline. DO NOT invest in a questionable stock just because you have dry powder in your "oil/energy" budget, and you want to get started on the road to being a tycoon. Do the homework, and KNOW every stock before you buy a single share. Focus on the longer term plays first, for they should be the largest holdings, and the skeleton of your portfolio. Don't invest money in trades before you establish the longer term plays - this can distract you from the chore of figuring out your long term plans, and lead you down the tubes.

     

    After you are happy with your longs, look at them critically and see which are volatile - and try to spot trading channels, news, or cycles you can use to trade for profit. Start by adding additional shares to stocks you have already identified as longs, but which have sufficient volatility (or prospects) that they may yield short term trading opportunities as well.

     

    Finally, IF you have any remaining dry powder other than your strategic cash reserve (and I always keep some cash in reserve, you never know when a great opp will pop up, or a problem will try to bit you), look for stocks which are good trades. Sometimes these stocks surprise you, and turn into potential longs. These can be traded in a modified manner, ie, you execute trades with the intention of reducing your cost per share or even getting it down to zero, leaving low cost or free shares with low or no risk of loss. Otherwise, set a reasonable profit goal for the trade based upon your charting and research, and follow your plan.

     

    Perhaps the hardest point arrives when you are losing money on a trade, and keep second guessing yourself. I like to use what I call the "Colin Powell Trade Policy", ie, never enter a trade without an exit strategy, and never stay in one once the time to exit, which you pre-determined, arrives. Bail, and don't look back. Nobody picks 100% winners, whether for long holds, or quick trades.
    28 Apr 2011, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    According to TMR - Advanced Rare-earth projects, which are NI 43-101 compliant. Quest is in the top 5 in regards to size. I don't see NTU anywhere, but somehow is farther along & better quality than Quest.
    I believe Quest will be producing in 2015-16. Also, according to John Kaiser, geologic sites that tend to have higher heavy rare earths, tend to have lower overall TREO percentages.
    Have I misunderstood, or is my logic wrong with looking at this?

     

    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    28 Apr 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jimp, I don't believe all the entries on TMR are NI 43-101 compliant (Steenkampskraal, for instance), though many (perhaps most) are. Its imcumbent upon Canadian miners to get their project sampling programs and data up to compliance, but other nations don't require this.

     

    Northern's REE projects are of course a sideline for them (they are very much still focused on Uranium, and I generally consider them a combined REE/Uranium play), but the preliminary results from their modern sampling program (still very much underway and incomplete) is very encouraging. It holds the potential to be something extraordinary, but until they do a lot more drilling and research, that remains a potential rather than a documented and quantified fact. One reason this deposit is so interesting is initial test results with unusually high levels of yttrium and heavy rare earths.

     

    In general, we are seeing the very heavy rare earth deposits coming in with TREO ore in the 1-2% range, at least in the data I've been looking at (I don't pretend to have read EVERY prospectus and test printout). I recently saw one (I believe VB posted the link) on here that had over 3% TREO cutoffs for loads of good HREE values, but I would have to dig back to find it (maybe VB will take pity on me and point me in the right direction). Lamentably, I don't always follow up these mental "hey I need to check on that further" postit notes.

     

    At any rate, it may be that a few exceptional sites which exceed the general rule that TREO numbers tend to be low when lighter elements are not also present could (though the proof isn't all in yet) include NOURF (and the mystery company which just slipped my mind, sorry...).

     

    As for the INVESTMENT in the 2 companies, it goes beyond any one project, of course. Northern has a strong Uranium operation in play, and Quest for a very long time touted itself as a Uranium play (and still holds some of those claims, I believe). When investing, one must look at ALL the fruit in the basket. I realize that Quest no longer markets themselves as a Uranium junior, and it appears that Northern has backed away from that pigeon hole (LOL, doubtless because of the REE panic sweeping the planet), but the potential is certainly there, and I would include such things in any review of the company's assets and value.
    28 Apr 2011, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    Saying I like Alkane 'a bit' is a good way to put it. Dubbo is an interesting resource. It has a lot going on. I normally avoid such stocks in favor of pure plays. But these guys will produce quick for a HREE stock and they have great 'by-products' which might be the real reason to own them.

     

    If they are quick and get top dollar for rare earth concentrate then turn into a good diversified miner from there it will be a great stock. If they focus their efforts an sell off some assets at top dollar prices they could also get to production with less dilution then most. So there are some if's and I like them a little. But I do like them and mostly watch them for now.
    28 Apr 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    TB and Chi, thanks for your replies.
    28 Apr 2011, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I am very much in sync with what you are saying, Chi.
    The more disciplined I am, the less I feel bad about not getting out at the right time, or being able to squeeze every penny. I take profits at regular intervals. (No matter how much I don't want to.)
    And, I cut losses at regular intervals. Wishing is not a loss strategy. To me even more important that ringing the last dime out of a trade, is cutting losses at a manageable level. When I enter a trade I need an exit strategy.
    28 Apr 2011, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    John Galt has the good infrastructure but Browns Range is pretty darn isolated from the paved roads. I imagine the economic development authorities are figuring out what can be done about it if they want to encourage the mining industry to develop in the East Kimberley in the years to come.
    The Browns Range is located just to the north of the Tanami Complex on the northwestern edge of the stony Tanami Desert. That desert doesn't seem to attract much in the way of mining interest but the areas around it do. It extends eastward to the town of Tennant Creek on the Darwin- Adelaide Railway. I have no idea if a railway spur connecting those mining regions with that railroad would be a good idea because of any indigenous land claims or other land conservation areas being in the way of it.
    John Galt, on the other hand, is located not far from the Great Northern Highway north of the mining service town of Halls Creek. It happens to be close by Panoramic Resources' nickel ore processing plant and the mining claims shown on the Thundelarra website. The authorities are upgrading the Port of Wyndham located down the highway from the mining regions and an irrigated agricultural area along the Ord River.
    There is the possibility of building a new port at Point Torment in the West Kimberley. But that is at least 400 or 500 miles from the East Kimberley mining regions which is still a long haul.
    Electricity for the East Kimberley comes from a hydro plant, interestingly enough.
    panoramicresources.com...
    www.thundelarra.com/pr...
    www.supplychainreview....
    www.dsd.wa.gov.au/docu...
    www.pacifichydro.com.a...
    28 Apr 2011, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it was this one, TB, about the cutoffs. Their mining prospect is located about 40 miles south of the Great Northern Highway closer in towards the Great Sandy Desert.
    www.kimberleyrareearth.../
    28 Apr 2011, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I agree with Chi, Always look at the fundamental picture and ignore the "Noise".

     

    It amazes me how many people get out of a great stock becasue they just not "feeling" it anymore OR another one of my favourite "I hate Nick Curtis/Management " OR they read the news and scare themselves out of a great stock like this one. AMAZING !
    29 Apr 2011, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks VB, that one is one of the "1.5 - 2.0%" candidates, but there WAS one I saw...

     

    Sigh. And I did not even make a margin note for it.

     

    I'll have to dig back through my trail and see where the heck I saw it.

     

    Thanks a lot, though!
    29 Apr 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    I read this prospectus with some detail and passed on it. Was there a claim of 3% TREO in there?
    I felt like these guys were selling the project based on NTU without much support for the argument.
    29 Apr 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    No, chi, I look at the neighbors to the miner in focus, in this case NTU, to get a handle on what wealth the region might have to offer including the infrastructure available. It also helps to do some comparison studies between the miners as you suggest.
    29 Apr 2011, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I think this is an interesting economic development puzzle about how best to send to wealth of the East Kimberley mines to the markets. If there could be a reasonable solution it would help NTU a great deal in future years as it develops its potential.
    Perhaps a railroad could be built from the new port at Port Torment through flat terrain parallel to the Great Northern Highway to terminate at the airport on the west side of Fitzroy Crossing. That would enable the thermal coal miner to easily ship his output to the port while cutting in about half the distance the East Kimberley metal miners would need to truck their ores to a railroad siding.
    reyresources.com/envir.../
    www.abc.net.au/rural/n...
    29 Apr 2011, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the compliment Rain.
    I think I am more skeptical of pretenders in rare earths because the base commodity story is so strong. With iron ore during the China rise five plus years back, there was only so much to say. They talked about city stage developments and then suggested India would continue the idea after that, but there was less to say and already many producers. Then with uranium their was skepticism based on doubting Greens would go along with it.

     

    But with rare earths you can talk bullish about the REE till you are blue in the face and it can cover for a weak project or stock. I think that has a lot to do with the rapid rise to over 200 junior rare earth related stocks. But we know only a fraction will ever produce. It's just a fact of history and I see no reason to doubt this part of the 'junior cycle' with rare earths either.

     

    And when I hear a weak project is a trade or a takeout candidate I tend to read that as bubble talk to some extent. The REE market is growing but it is very small. A good dozen plus of top mines globally should saturate the market IMO. So what happens to everyone else? Short answer is they go to pennies (and delist if they are listed).

     

    And since everyone is a start-up or restart, I think there is limited appeal for a lot of takeovers. The goal is more likely to focus resources on mine development and production. The synergies of some weaker projects is a joke IMO.
    29 Apr 2011, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    TB:

     

    FWIW, like you when I invest in a sector I study it to death. But I try not to rely on memory; it's too easy for the stats of one good drill section to stick, and the low-grade remainder to fade. I write 'em down, bookmark 'em, or email myself a note, whatever is most convenient at the time. I've got a spreadsheet with all the key stats of all the 43-101 and JORC compliant projects. Similar data to TMR's "Advanced Rare-Earth Projects Index" (which by the way are either 43-101, JORC, or previously mined and thus having reliable historical data) but with even more detail on each project, and links to the Sedar or other online sources describing the resources.

     

    I haven't researched every prospectus and drill log either, but for the compliant ones I haven't noted a project with more than 3% TREO and significant (say, 10+%) heavies. Thor Lake is 15+% heavies but only 1.36% TREO. Those with more heavies are all lower TREO.
    1 May 2011, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    ASC/Toyota deal is echoing a little, at least in the Sector media, if not the MSM.
    28 Apr 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully LYSCF has settled and will now stabilize and begin moving back up.
    28 Apr 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hopefully. What I expect is that it will rattle around near these levels until they straighten out:

     

    1. Crown Deposit affair.

     

    2. Malaysian politics.

     

    In that order. The first is the larger problem, imo.
    28 Apr 2011, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I have changed add orders (for LYSCF) to 2.35 and will be adding today NMW. Still holding back some bites looking for lower averaging

     

    Also...still trying to pry some more NOURF away from these people. It has a loyal following...has always been hard to get
    28 Apr 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    NOURF trades real thin. It does not matter much if you are investing. But as a trade it will drive you nuts. I think this will be less of a problem after drill results. That should add price and volume to it if my guess is right.
    28 Apr 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Today's volume on the pink sheets was (as I recall) only 1500 shares or so. But they routinely trade millions a day on the ASX...

     

    I have found that this stock CAN be traded, but with patience. For day traders it is NOT!
    28 Apr 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Good action on SRSR last few days...wish this one would break.
    28 Apr 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: Miro un pregunta de GELYF en otro concentratoro por favor. Gracias
    28 Apr 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, my high school spanish is rusty... "Miro"?

     

    But I do indeed have a small core holding in GELYF - the only Chinese company I am invested in. I picked them up after they acquired Volvo from Ford for peanuts. Not a big investment, but long term, I like their chances, particularly when they ultimately seque Volvo cars and technology into the Chinese market.

     

    I guess I must have mentioned holding them in one of my comments in the QC...
    28 Apr 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Well, I said please look at the question in the other concentrator....I think! ;)
    ...but I'll take the answer here
    ...and suppose it isn't really a concentrator now is it?

     

    Thanks TB!
    28 Apr 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Those are great points all.
    I like what you say TB," I take great pains to differntiate between investments versus trades, (Lynas, GWM.......would you add nourf to a list of investments or trades??
    28 Apr 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Northern has been both to me at different times...

     

    I was liking it a lot as a U/REE play before the Japanese meltdown, then I bailed to see what the market would do with the U stocks, and sure enough, it beat most of them down pretty bad...

     

    Now I just don't know.... I believe NOURF may be the best of breed in this group. I am pretty stubborn about Uranium being a good investment, or Thorium if we see a sea-change toward that technology...

     

    But the upside down Japanese reactors put a large boulder into that pond, and I don't think we have heard anything like the last of that just yet.

     

    I am taking a tiny chance on a position in NTU for the time being, but I took loads of profit out of UURAF (now just holding a token amount at a very low cost per share), and my GDLNF (minus cost, it could go to zero at this point and I would still have profits).

     

    My average cost in NTU is about $.75 per share, so my risk is reduced, but it definitely IS a gamble given the state of things...

     

    But I may start trading the stock too, buying as it dips below $1, and selling as it goes to the $1.2x range, IF it falls into a trading channel at all.
    28 Apr 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    btw...added LYSCF and tiny bit o NOURF to get a round number and help peg the price. .95 will get you some right now if anyone wants any....takers??

     

    Wait...actually....I think someone needs to buy some for $1 and bring that price back up for me!

     

    You know...that really stinks when your own trade brings two of your own accounts down now...

     

    Hope no one is mad at me for doing that...it will be short-lived I believe

     

    NOURF bounced at .92-.94 if I'm not mistaken last trip in here...hoping we see that again. Good sign that people aren't letting go of shares easily IMO
    28 Apr 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    thanks!
    28 Apr 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    One minor item of note...did some snooping all over today for Lynas related info and found little new of note other than the obvious items...Malaysia (the country) is a mess and the people there are restless and in the mood to cry out against any and all perceived or real injustices. The reporting there seems to have this junior-college like vibe to it and, well...

     

    If the citizens are correct....their leaders are cronies and will surely doo 'em dirty and get a deal done with Lynas.

     

    The Forge/NC/Aussie disatisfaction speaks for itself. People don't like rich people getting richer...especially through craftiness they are incapable of/lacking resources for themselves

     

    --Here's the one item of note: Supposedly the Malaysian Review panel will be announced formally sometime (according to reports) within a week(ish)

     

    While this should have already been priced in...these types of announcements will serve to remind investors about the issue and potentially hold back price, so be prepared for these.
    28 Apr 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    WIth the top ten list of investors in Northern minerals ( nourf) It sure looks tempting now...
    28 Apr 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Didnt Credit Suisse purchase some NTU recently?
    28 Apr 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Add Credit Suisse and subtract one of the two HSBC holdings from the NTU top holdings list on the website. (I think the Credit Suisse buy was an HSBC fund holding tranfer).

     

    www.northernuranium.co...
    28 Apr 2011, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Added a chunk of GWMGF at the closing bell today.
    28 Apr 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Yea! Glad to see you with a smoking gun, FF.

     

    Now hold...and don't look at it. ;)
    28 Apr 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    You guys were having a great conversation before I butted in....now everyones quiet
    28 Apr 2011, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Questions were answered...

     

    Next?
    28 Apr 2011, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    I will try an hold and not watch it everyday! Thanks for the answers..I feel like I took a good step.
    28 Apr 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    We are in firm agreement on theory, but very different in our application. I couldn't agree more that fundamentals matter. However, I reach the conclusion, different from you, that the fundamentals for Quest outweigh the fundamenrtals for GW. The TMR site has extensive data on a project by project basis. The data does show that GW wins hands down in terms of higher grade ( i.e. the % of REEs in its ore). Its TREO % by weight is 11.65% compared to Quest's 0.91%. But in this case, I think size matters. After applying those percentages to the totaal ore in the respective projects, the TMR data shows that GW's total reported REEs in South Africa is 29,000 tons, while Quest's is a little over 2 million. Even if you add in GW's Hodas project, GW still has less than 100,000 tons. As for infrastructure, GW's existing mine is obviously ahead of Quest, but Quest will have a major advantage going forward as an open pit mine compared to GW's tunnels. In terms of transparency, Quest has been far more open in terms of cost projections, etc.

     

    Put it all together, and even leaving out Quest's impending AMEX listing I like Quest's fundamentals better than GW. You disagree, and that is what makes a horse race, but I don't think it is as simple as "findamentals" versus market hype.

     

    When we started this debate on March 11 with our "no money" bet, GW was $0.83 and Quest was $5.20. The race is far from over, but I still like my horse.
    28 Apr 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    I guess I misread your post at first. I guess you are saying because Strange is so large, it is more fundamental in your opinion. I do disagree. Strange's size is not the key metric to me, especially since they are not scheduled to produce till 2016. I think the key is what will HREE prices be in 2016 and what will it cost Quest to extract a kg of HREE ore out of the ground at that point? As for open pit mining it is cheaper.

     

    GW will be fully integrated with Steenkampskrel very soon. This should also speed along Hoidas and make Hoidas more cost effective.

     

    But you are very right to mention our bet. I am getting my butt kicked with GW. But, for now I'll give my turtle a little more time. And if this continues I'll admit defeat and roll the position into Lynas and NTU.
    28 Apr 2011, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    Just to clarify, I'm not saying that Quest's fundamentals are better because it's bigger. I'm saying that in my opinion Quest's net cash flows per share will exceed GW's. "Fundamentals" sooner or later boil down to a company's cash flows. I acknowledge that GW's cash will begin flowing sooner, but Quest's will be so much more per share that on a discounted cash flow analysis I believe that Quest will represent a better value per share. I admit that this is a guess since as far as I know GW, unlike Quest, hasn't disclosed enough information to do a discounted cash flow analysis. I guess time will tell. In the meantime I enjoy our debate.

     

    28 Apr 2011, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Thanks ellwodo.
    And on this point I disagree more than ever.:-) Without integration and with low TREO numbers in a fairly remote area, I think Quests tonnage will translate to mine life, not larger cash flow per quarter or good margins. I guess here I should repeat that I do not believe Quest will produce because these above factors lead me to question economic feasibility for Quest production in 2016. But yes, I do enjoy the debate, and I do respect the differing view.
    29 Apr 2011, 01:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    we agree.
    The jimp question I replied to was:
    Chi,
    In your opinion, what miner is better than Quest in the heavy rare earth arena?

     

    My answer was:
    NTU,
    GW (Hoidas Lake),
    ALK,
    maybe MTCEF

     

    I think it got confusing when several replies separated the comments. BTW, this was a nice GW argument (solid facts and reasoning IMO)
    28 Apr 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just ran some charts comparing GWM and Quest....

     

    GWM is unbeatable if you go back to the paleo days (last year) when the stock was in the teens. Even a 6 month cahrt has GWM like mount everest, and Quest a little squiggle along the bottom of the page.

     

    The 3 month chart, though, tells the tale, as Quest overhauls the sagging GWM.

     

    I think this tale is not yet done, however....

     

    Good stuff.
    28 Apr 2011, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I just want to talk philosophy of trades a little longer. You see, I average down and look at where a stock was after the markets collapsed in 2008, and figure it could happen again.
    That's because I set an amount in my head, that I am prepared to lose. Then, I decide on the timeframe. For GWM, I gave it a 3 year window.
    How do others approach penny plays?
    My first rule is never risk more than you are prepared to lose totally. Because with these penny stocks, if one thing goes wrong, it can put a company under. (Unlike Enron or Lehman, which actually unfolded over time, with time to get out and save yourself).

     

    Now, I find it interesting that Rain hates PNPFF. (So do I, but I've been in and out of it for a few years usually profitably).
    I just think that is one you need a very long horizon for-- look at the companies they have invested in-- and how often they double their money. They are in a "hated" industry (venture capitalists) and maybe they are a wannabe microcap etf/fund.
    If you don't have a long view for PNPFF, I'd say trade something that will give you warm fuzzies faster. PNPFF is a very difficult stock, and there are easier trades than that one.
    28 Apr 2011, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    O.G. : I don't hate Pinetree at all...don't think I said anything like that. I had asked a day or so ago for opinions on it as I was thinking about selling...short-term to free up some powder only. I like it all-right and have made a bit on it. Don't think that was me.
    29 Apr 2011, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I looked at your comment again. It is in this instablog. Sorry I mischaracterized what you said. You said you don't really love it. That's a far cry from hating it!
    I, however, hate it and trade it. The reason I hate it is its unpredictability. Just because all the ree stocks and gold and silver and basic metals are up, why would PNPFF be down?
    Is it because of their Uranium exposure??
    Whatever question you ask as to why it is behaving the way it does...
    is never quite answered satisfactorily, imo.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    O.G. I agree with the upside-down nature of things sometimes.

     

    In relation to the dialogue about trading or not trading etc., it seems people (especially on the other Insta) love to fault others for their trading practices and/or stocks they trade. It seems people do the best with the holdings they have become somewhat familiar with personally and witnessed a track record of behavior. For you, Pinetree has worked, in spite of it's flaws, because you are familiar with it and know some habits (thinking of HT and Capstone for example).

     

    When I see someone bash HT and Maya for trading AXPW it seems silly - they have watched it closely...know how it behaves and make some money on it.

     

    I have been fortunate at times to follow someone else's lead with a stock I am unfamiliar with (but they follow it quite closely) and benefit from their knowledge. I have also jumped into those in following another's move - unfamiliar with the stock - and learned a good lesson.

     

    This was not the case, fortunately, for me with Pinetree as it was you who led me into it (knowingly or not) and I am up in it ATM and have made a little on it by garnering a little info from your earlier discussions of it with TB, et al a while back. So thanks!

     

    If I was someoone with some dry powder, I would spend less time bashing someone else's picks (like HT for trading AXPW) and more time finding out why he likes it and consider it myself.

     

    (This isn't a plug for AXPW btw...just using as example)

     

    The only reason I am thinking of selling Pinetree is I am so heavily weighted in REEs and I think (hope) I am getting close enough to understanding these that I will just use my own capital to pick those I like rather than using Pinetree as a channel for the same thing. This may be wrong thinking...just something I started thinking when looking at it the other day.
    30 Apr 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Interesting comments on the GW news.... kinda fits in with the discussion here. Can any one figure out how the guy got from " if GW is $1 then that would put QRM at $70" ?
    28 Apr 2011, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what the writer had in mind, but GW's site shows it has 460 million fully diluted shares outstanding. That is about 7 times Quest's fully diluted 70 million shares. So if you thought Quest's projects were equal in value to GW, that would make Quest worth $7 if GW is worth $1. But see my earlier post above comparing net tons of REEs at the two companies' projects. Quest has over 20 times the total REEs in the ground that GW has. You coild discount that value by half to reflect Quest being further from market, and still get a 10 to 1 multiplier. Apply that to the $7 and you get $70.

     

    I'm not claiming Quest is worth $70, I'm just pointinbg out that it is pretty easy to justify a much higher price for Quest compared to GW. At toda'ys close, Quest's market cap was less than twice GW. In my opinion that is too low. If I owned all of Quest, you would need to offer me a lot more than two GWs in exchange.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We're drawing closer to the announcement of China's 2nd Hack 2011 export quotas, and there is rampant speculation that they will change the game. There is a widespread rumor that the companies exporting REE from China have reacted to the steady tightening of export quotas by selling a mix of REE with more HREEs. I suspect this is true, its only logical, if you are one of 40 guys tyring to make ends meet exporting REEs, and they have cut your total quota this time to about 3 tonnes of goods, what are you gonna sell? As much of the exotic rare items as you can get? Of course you are, and then fill in the rest with whatever lights your customers scream loudest for...

     

    But best we NOT jump to a conclusion that this has resulted in huge price increases for REEs (the preference for shipping HREEs), because it really is more complicated than that.

     

    Some folks think the exporters are just loading up on HREEs, and that's it. No Lights, so the prices of cerium, lanthanum and neodymium went ape. Couldn't happen. These quotas, though much smaller than in the past, are still 14,508 tonnes. If they were shipping those kinds of heavy elements, the prices of those elements would have crashed...

     

    Except they haven't. They are going up too.

     

    So it is apparent that the exporters are still shipping mostly lights (logically, they couldn't ship all heavies if they wanted to, the world doesn't produce those elements in those quantities, and the world markets won't absorb them). Some crazy Chinese exporter somewhere might be dreaming of filling his entire quota with Terbium, but it just ain't gonna happen.

     

    Underlying everything is the absolute certainty that the export quotas (whatever their proportion of lights and heavies, or this element or that element) total just 14,508 tonnes, and the quotas for the 2nd half of the year are unlikely to be much larger (and equally likely to be smaller). Lots of people estimate world demand, and I have my own idea (I suspect all those outlaw mines and tong smugglers have been supplying loads of world demand which doesn't appear on the official Chinese government "books"), but lets just say that we are coming up short somewhere around 20,000 tonnes for 2011.

     

    Now, let's further assume that the Chinese LISTEN to the pundits and xperts who are convinced that if they just use some logical export quota program based upon individual elements instead of overall tonnage, all would be fine. World prices for the dominant REE market (which is in the lighter range primarily, lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium and samarium) would drop like a rock, because China would be back shipping plenty of REEs folks need...

     

    Except it won't work out that way.

     

    China will still be shipping something like 60% of ex-China world demand, and though the proportions might please SOME folks who would like to see Cerium drop in price somewhat, it is likely to put frowny faces on other folks as the central planners in Beijing naturally decide to limit exports onf Neodymium because they are in the process of buildling huge wind turbines (using tons of magnets) by the score. Should these folks get their wish, China will begin to "manage" individual elements, and not necessarily in the way people assume they will.

     

    So, how will this affect Lynas's REE Market Basket.

     

    Obviously, we don't really know, but I can take a WAG at it and see what comes out.

     

    First, let's assume that Lynas' mix happens to be the same identical mix of elements the Chinese want to ship, in the same identical proportions (no chance, but hey, its a WAG). This would mean that they will be filling 46.75% of their quota with Cerium. 25.50% with Lanthanum. 18.50% with Neodymium. 5.32% with Praseodymium. and 2.27% with Samarium (and the rest % with all the others, in similar proportion, at tiny percentages). OK, fine.

     

    The pundits think this will mean that world prices for light REEs with plummet as a result...

     

    But will that really happen?

     

    It COULD, but only if one important thing happens: China doesn't just CHANGE the makeup of their export quota system, they greatly INCREASE the tonnage they will allow to be shipped.

     

    Could this happen? Yes.... Though only for a brief period. China has managed to quickly run through the bulk of their richest REE deposits, either exhausting them or polluting them, or both, and their current remaining reserves are sufficient for maybe 15 years domestic supply (or something less than 10 years continuing to supply the entire planet), after which they will be in the same boat the rest of the world is currently in...

     

    So of course, they will do THAT?

     

    Probably not. They aren't stupid.

     

    BUT could they game the situation, big time, THIS half year quota?

     

    Oh yes, and world prices WOULD go nuts if they chose to do so.

     

    This is the wild and wooly nature of the sector we are invested in, guys, and just one of many dangers we face. Much as we focus on what is going on with the Western world startups, we lose sight of the fact that China STILL supplies 95% of the world supply at our peril.

     

    This requires constant vigilance, and yes, its something to worry about and keep abreast of developments.

     

    So, back to the theoretical case where China quixotically matches their export mix to something like the mix found at Mount Weld, but do NOT greatly increase tonnage, what sort of impact would that have on world prices?

     

    Given that we are operating with a 20kmt per year deficit, its pretty hard to judge. I would think that we would see some changes, with Lanthanum and Cerium dropping back in price closer to $100/kilo, while Neodymium and the rest would likely go UP in price...

     

    Would this result in a lower market basket estimate for MCP and Lynas? Quite likely, particularly if that was the INTENT of the Chinese cartel (vs their ongoing program to force Western companies to transplant their technology, jobs and factories to China). This would work AGAINST that geopolitical goal, of course, and there we have to question whether China is quite ready to do that...

     

    Perhaps.

     

    But its NOT a zero sum game, its not simple, and the geopolitical calculations are far more complex than the market basket mix.
    28 Apr 2011, 10:53 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Excellent stuff.
    Do you have a ballpark estimate on when we might see the new quotas? My searches seem to be showing that last year the second-half quotas came out at the start of July; do you think that is the likely target again or are you thinking perhaps a bit sooner?
    29 Apr 2011, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » June is my guess, especially if they are changing up the whole structure, or adding big new tarrifs and internal taxes.
    29 Apr 2011, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): Last night the S&P ASX closed down 1.07% while Lynas closed down 3.24% on volume that is the 2nd largest in these last 13 trading days and rising. It is, of course, still well below the 20 day SMA, ~A$2.39.

     

    If we move in the U.S. the same percentage, we should see US$2.31. Since we had $2.33 yesterday, lower than what the % decline would project, let's make a rough estimate of $2.29 to allow for some overshoot. Keep in mind we've got a potential support, that seemed to operate yesterday based on the closing price. But today will be the second consecutive test during what, IMO, is a significant and sustained downdraft.

     

    We've got an old gap down from 3/3-3/4 of $2.28-$2.24. These old gaps seem to keep on offering some pauses, so I wanted to mention the prices as potential support points. I guess that means we should change the $2.29 above to $2.28.

     

    On the currency front, Aud/USD is 1.0917. Conversion of the closing ASX price yields 2.2874. Heh! Maybe we need to change back to $2.29. But pre-open, USD is a bit weaker again, so maybe not.

     

    Were below the 10 and 20 day SMAs and I wouldn't be surprised, over a short period, to see us go to the rising 50 day SMA, $2.23 yesterday. Since this is also near the gap bottom I mentioned and the 50 is rising, I suspect we'll go below the 50. This assumes no catalyst in the near term.

     

    All the technical indicators are weak *except* the accum/distr line, which continues to show folks are using the downdraft to accumulate. This last week it is still at its highest point in 3 years.

     

    Well, it's starting to feel like a typical "Flat Friday". So I don't think we'll see any big moves outside of what I've mentioned above. But you know what my record has been here, so a heavy application of salt may be appropriate.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results (gap due to holidays).

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/20..... 4/21..... 4/27...... 4/28...... 4/29
    Last...... 2.400... 2.450... 2.210.... 2.160.... 2.090
    $+/-...... 0.110... 0.050. -0.240... -0.050.... -0.070
    Bid........ 2.400... 2.440.... 2.210.... 2.150.... 2.090
    Offer..... 2.410... 2.450.... 2.230.... 2.170.... 2.100
    Open.... 2.340... 2.460.... 2.320.... 2.250.... 2.200
    High...... 2.410.. 2.510..... 2.340.... 2.280.... 2.210
    Low...... 2.330.. 2.430..... 2.210..... 2.140.... 2.070
    Vol. 23.182M 18.79M 47.403M 38.218M 42.767M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/13....... 4/14....... 4/15....... 4/18....... 4/19
    Last...... 2.520.... 2.540..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    $+/-.... -0.030.... 0.020... -0.010.. -0.070... -0.170
    Bid........ 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.530..... 2.460..... 2.290
    Offer..... 2.530.... 2.550..... 2.540..... 2.480..... 2.300
    Open.... 2.520.... 2.530..... 2.570..... 2.520..... 2.350
    High..... 2.570.... 2.590...... 2.590..... 2.540..... 2.390
    Low..... 2.470..... 2.520..... 2.510..... 2.410..... 2.290
    Vol. 34.758M 25.938M 25.400M 28.973M 40.520M

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its all up to NC now. It still appears that he's going to force the Crown Deposit giveaway to a vote. I'm thinking that the vote on the matter originally scheduled for May 18th was delayed because there is ANOTHER likely delay before Mount Weld starts up. The next proximate event would be the Mount Weld startup prediction update (vs an actual startup) COMBINED with a new "explanation" of why Lynas shareholders should give him a very large birthday present of Crown.

     

    This is getting very ugly indeed...
    29 Apr 2011, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): even uglier!

     

    "Accusations of insider trading dog a darling of the bright young set"

     

    "His best friend was jailed for making $1.9 million in illegal profits and now Oliver Curtis is under scrutiny, writes Stuart Washington"

     

    www.smh.com.au/busines...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY) and uglier uglier

     

    Looks like some rework for the tailings pit at Mt. Weld is in the cards. I've not read it yet.

     

    Thanks to Ozfoggy at Investorshub.

     

    investorshub.advfn.com...

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY):

     

    There's several documents in that PDF. Page of interest is tagged 4 of 21, which is the 9th page in the Adobe reader page index.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yuckj.
    29 Apr 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Very good fundamental research. I think last nights Quarterly Activities Report updates us on this issue by telling us the concentrator gets first feed within two weeks.

     

    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    29 Apr 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    HT...it's OK, because the article points out that:

     

    "Mr Curtis was boyish and handsome in full black tie dress."

     

    Read more: www.smh.com.au/busines...

     

    btw for those who haven't seen article this is not, apparently, related to Lynas....but is still very poorly timed for the elder Mr. Curtis. He should take that handsome and boyish boy over his knee. Or did the younger Mr. Curtis learn a few tricks from dad???
    29 Apr 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Or...

     

    Will he shop dear ol'dad's own insider shenanigans to avoid a jail term?
    29 Apr 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: THAT IS NOT FUNNY!
    29 Apr 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, I believe that pdf refers to past history. They punted 2 weeks into April instead of cranking up Mt. Weld, with a note that they estimated they would be able to start in "3 or 4 weeks". I'm thinking we could see progress in 1 or 2 weeks...

     

    Except I believe the Crown Deposit debate has NC strategizing. He will want to have something solid to piggyback the new "explanation" as to why Lynas should hand over Crown to his pet Forge for a song...

     

    And what better than a functioning (at long last) Mount Weld plant?

     

    ...Except NC just punted the May 18 date for the explanation downstream...

     

    And I am now thinking that might be either because another delay is coming at Mount Weld, OR...

     

    NC might delay the startup himself, for strategic reasons, so he can do the Crown selling job while basking in the joy of the Mt. Weld moment.

     

    ALL this is just supposition and guesswork, of course.
    29 Apr 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    My thinking was he put the meeting off knowing Mt. Weld start is coming soon (not be delayed again) and he will "bask in..." and have a better selling job right after that
    29 Apr 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Possible. I hope you are right...
    29 Apr 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    This pdf/ ASX announcement came out last night our time. it's an update on the quarterly activities report. Here's the statement:

     

    The Company is currently working on satisfying the final requirements to meet the conditions of the received approvals from the Western Australia Department of Environment to obtain the 'License to Operate' and the first feed of ore is scheduled to occur within approximately two weeks.

     

    That must be an update to the punting note you mentioned.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The one you linked up above is dated March 31, 2011. I'll check around for the new one...

     

    Don't see anything since the March 31 quarterly update.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I see the problem.
    The link I gave is to the ASX. The ASX site did not add the new announcement. The quote is from the HC-LYC board. HC users can get it through this link:

     

    www.hotcopper.com.au/a...

     

    Sorry for the confussion.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, I'm really sorry to be worrying you over this...

     

    But that is still the same 14 page pdf dated March 31.

     

    But I trust you. If you have seen a newer addition, its still data.
    29 Apr 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think I got it now. :-) The document is not dated March 31. It is the Activities Report for the quarter ending March 31. (And yes the links are all the same document.) As is common for ASX stocks the Activity Report comes out a few weeks after the quarter ends. And in the Activity Report it is common to update information. For example in this report on page 7 of 14 you will see under the heading "Contracts" it says:
    The total number of contract construction packages at the end of the quarter stood at 81. As at 29 April 2011 all construction contracts have been awarded.

     

    I believe the quote regarding the concentration plant is an update as well, because our last announcement dealing with Sojitz and shares released stated Mt. Weld was three to four weeks away from first feed. This announcement says at the top of the same page 7 of 14:

     

    All construction activity at the Concentration Plant was completed during the quarter, with Practical Completion occurring on 31 March 2011. The Company is currently working on satisfying the final requirements to meet the conditions of the received approvals from the Western Australia Department of Environment to obtain the ‘License to Operate’ and the first feed of ore is scheduled to occur within approximately two weeks.

     

    I wish they would have dated the Mt. Weld update as well. But HC put the release time on this as:
    Release time: 4/29/2011 6:11:00 PM (Sydney, NSW Australia time)

     

    Hope this clears this up. But as the Aussie's say "no worries". I'm happy to get the feedback and always welcome corrections.
    29 Apr 2011, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Antone else having trouble with their Lynas board...mine shows nothing
    29 Apr 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Now, 10:54, mines showing bid/ask $2.30/$2.31. It's stayed right in the range I mentioned this morning so far. Low $2.28 as of this point.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Oh well...did it blind
    Added LYSCF.......No guts no..?? IS it glory....or gorey?

     

    Would add NOURF but don't want to bring the price down!
    Speaking of NOURF...watched closely down under this week and NOURF stopped and came back trying to hold on for the first time yesterday on low volume...May be nearing bottom
    Also, keep in mind ASX was taking a beating all over Friday
    29 Apr 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Mine says, lyscf @ 2.31.......probably delayed a bit
    29 Apr 2011, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    down 2.53%
    29 Apr 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Meta making a little (well, big for them) move this a.m.
    I have been thinking of adding a bit there and may do on next down
    29 Apr 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Making some moves today....

     

    Taking profits on GDLNF, GWMGF, LYSDY, PNPFF and SNDXF.

     

    Notes: GDLNF is now in the sock drawer, the Japanese meltdown has obviously set back any movement in Greenland on freeing up their Uranium-rich holdings for mining. Better luck next year (or decade) boys...

     

    GWMGF just taking a few profits, freeing up cash for dry powder SHOULD May be as nasty as it might be with mucho "sell in may and go away" attention compounded with imminent cessation of Fed prime pumping QE2... Still very long GWM overall.

     

    LYSDY same comment, taking profits, but still overweight Lynas. This is a case of putting into action what we were discussing about "disciplined" trading up-thread on this blog...

     

    ADDED QSURF and some high yield stocks at the same time.
    29 Apr 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Still holding some SNDXF and PNPFF?
    29 Apr 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Definitely. When I "Sell" a stock, that means its no longer in my portfolio. When I "Take Profits" its a percentage of the holding.

     

    When I "Add" that means I am adding more to an existing holding.

     

    Everyone has different shorthand, but that's mine.

     

    For instance I just "Sold" MTCEF. It was very profitable, I was up about 50%, but in this case I didn't just take profits, I exited the stock completely. In this case, I plan to look for a lower re-entry point at a later date. I like this little micro-cap, but its not really a long term core holding for me, more of a "slow trade" situation. Instead of taking profits at some comfortable 20% level or so, I let it run a little longer, then step out at an opportune time and re-evaluate.

     

    I will probably buy some additional shares next time and put them in my longer term sock drawer.
    29 Apr 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    GUYs can you help me out here i am so puzzled. HOW COME LYSCF Don't drop as much as the stocks the real LYC stock in Australia? Wow i am amazed.
    29 Apr 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could be that LYC hit a bottom and now we are seeing it recover just a little. The American trading in Lynas is sizeable, though usually the ASX is much larger volume and leads the US markets...
    29 Apr 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    Best guess right now is the U.S. dollar is "gliding like a homesick brick". This A.M. we had an AUD/USD ratio around 1.09. If there's some big players doing arbitrage, they might be working both sides of the ocean and making millions of pennies each day.

     

    And don't forget that TB has mentioned about the "drafting" off (MCP) actions and Lynas is also in (REMX) over here.

     

    IIRC and IIUC what TB mentioned, Lynas *can* diverge from REMX because MCP is such a large percentage of REMX. But overall I've noticed that Lynas tends to move pretty well with REMX, although recent divergences make me think that the woes of Lynas in the press are affecting it some.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The currency is most of the reason Omg. But the big guys and shorters don't sit on unlisted stocks like they can on LYC. LYC's liquidity makes cover stock more available and it is easier to press the trade.

     

    HTL would know better, but I look at the compare and see the crossing of the LYC and LYSDY. When LYSDY crosses over LYC to the down side to is often near a base. And when LYSDY crosses LYC on the way back up is has often happened near the start of the next rise. I might be misusing terms of art, but that's the best way I know how to describe this point.
    29 Apr 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I hadn't thought to check the crossing patterns! Darn, another thing to figure out the way to track best.

     

    Thanks for that nugget Chi!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Help a brother from another mother out...
    April 29 10:31am you wrote:
    LYSDY ....taking profits, but still overweight Lynas.

     

    Then April 29 10:49 am you wrote:
    Could be that LYC hit a bottom and now we are seeing it recover just a little.

     

    Am I missing something? Is that a contradiction? Are you working for Goldman where changing you mind every 18 minutes is just part of being one of the smartest guys in the room?:-)
    29 Apr 2011, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    ALso i just want to shout out that i LOVE AMERICAN RARE EARTH LYNAS HEADS more then the crazy Australian LYC heads. They are the most depressing bunch of people in the forum and very emotional and crazy. All they talk about is how much the yhate Nick Curtis everyday. Whereas they American express displeasure with Nick then move on to other topics NOT NAG and nag nag nag. I love you guys keep up the good work. The Best people are here!
    29 Apr 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Omg,
    First off, we love you too bro. But don't give up on your mates man. Better to ignore them a little right now while they scrum over Crown. The best writers will come back to copper-lynas once the Crown deal is over either way. I agree they are much too repetitive right now. For the moment, I mostly gloss that blog and write on the NTU board.
    It could be worse. Try a DAX board and read how every drop is fundamental and every rally is short covering. Never again. The most amazing thing to me is the strength of the German economy in spite of their endless thirst for pessimism. Needless to say they loved my "everything is a 3-5 bagger" view. :-) Talk about viewing me as a perma bull child. And that was 2009 so I was more right than wrong by now.
    29 Apr 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, just closed the 2 trades I have had working for a while...

     

    Made a little on selling HREEF, I settled for 10%...
    Lost more on selling GOLDF, but that's the way it goes. Their symbol change coming right after I initiated the trade made me nervous, but I stuck to the plan... A mistake, in hindsight. Obviously Pele has altered their long term focus...
    29 Apr 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    OK...I've followed HTs IHub post and viewed original document.
    The page in question regarding the "Tailings Facility" seems to be the only area of concern in the document and here's what I see
    The EPA document is dated April 1
    There is an attachment (attch. 3 page 27 of 28 PDF ver.) referred to throughout document related to the Tailings facility of a letter dated March 29 (cannot see this as it is removed or missing but can see header referencing it...last visible page of PDF)
    From this we should be able to assume Lynas had notice and made preparations for what would need to be done somewhere around the last few days of March.
    This makes sense, as that is when we were expecting Mt. Weld news and instead got other fluffy stuff and barely-leaked timeline of 2-3 weeks to satisfy EPA
    This pretty much lines up with and makes sense of what we already believed but leaves the one obvious question...
    The IHub poster clearly thought this looked like a new build/rebuild on a large scale while the EPA doc terms it the following:

     

    "The proposed amendment is that works be taken to line a section of the facility so that discharges may commence whilst a further amendment is prepared outlining the works required to bring the entire facility to an acceptable level of permeability."

     

    This sounds to me like a break for Lynas as the EPA is allowing them to "shore-up" the first phase (5yr useability) of the tailings facility so they can begin mining/discharges and that once they construct the lining that can occur.

     

    I, too, would think it would take longer than 2-3 weeks...but it certainly does not seem like anything earth-shattering. Even the "entire facility" part...is referring only to the tailings facility and that work can be done after mining/discharge commences.....and we get some relief for our pps

     

    Would love to hear other's takes on this
    29 Apr 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I agree rain and the report I posted above is more updated and supports your two week timeline. We are at a buy/top off point in Lynas IMO.
    29 Apr 2011, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Rain: Thanks. Good info there!
    29 Apr 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.bon.tv/11/62/5921-...
    29 Apr 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I accidentally put this on the quick chat when I meant to post it here-- sorry for the double post....
    I added to my GWMGF at .85.... I am expecting THE announcement anytime between May and July. Will there be a better buying opp? Perhaps... but I willing to make sure I got a seat on the ride. However, I agree with TB about May. However, they were squealing about the same thing last May and it did not happen. I think the end of QE2 will not be dramatic and they will find a way for QE 2.2 or 2.3.

     

    So, in for a penny and all. We shall see how this unfolds. (obviously if I am still waiting in July, I will have to revisit the whole thing but let's hope that does not happen as that will upset me greatly)
    29 Apr 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    For what its worth, Byron Capital Markets has raised it price target on GWG from $2.00 to $3.50 after previoulsy reducing it by $.25 a few months ago (I know they have a vested interest) but their research and thesis remains pretty sound.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    29 Apr 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    With 460 million fully diluted shares, $3.50 values GWG at $1.6 billion. Do they explain how they get to that value?
    29 Apr 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    My first thought is that the shares GW has been issuing to Byron as payment for services are sitting growing mold in Byron's "vault". Last payment, IIRC, was 60K+ shares, the third or 4th such payment.

     

    Even if Byron doesn't know anything is coming to cause a spike, this could be a "pump & dump" for them to make more money by dribbling out their shares as folks who've not been paying attention start buying them up.

     

    If there *is* something good coming - remember that Byron is supposed to be helping GW find various types of opportunities - Byron likely knows it first since they would be instrumental in making the arrangements.

     

    It still helps the value of their holdings even if they are *not* doing a "pump & dump".

     

    Since Byron has been receiving fees for 3 or 4 months, one would hope that some progress has been made.

     

    Last thought on this: financing of GW activities by share issuance? If GW wants to maintain a better looking cash flow, profit/loss, balance sheet, ... they might want to secure funding for the expansions they've been discussing by share issuance. Having a $3.50 target price should make that much easier and, hopefully, less dilutive for current shareholders by potentially garnering a higher issue price for the buyers of the new shares. It allows the shares to be (privately?) placed at an apparent big discount to what it might be trading at if the target price is being neared.

     

    I know, I haven't found a lot of positives in my considerations.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Whistling past the graveyard....

     

    OK, gang, still hoping they find a JV partner with pockets deep enough to build out Steenkampskraal...

     

    [paste appropriate whistling mp3 HERE]
    29 Apr 2011, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Engdahl has said repeatedly that they have other alternatives for financing and dilution is their least preferred source of capital.

     

    When a questioner on the most recent quarterly report con-call insisted that time was of the essence and dilution would ultimately benefit everyone, Engdahl quipped "I'll let you try to sell that to our shareholders", then addressed it more seriously and convinced me, at least, that he is determined not to dilute.
    1 May 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    That's excellent to hear. So that would explain the lack of share increase used in the Byron Capital calculations.

     

    That bodes well for those of us under a dollar, and there's a lot of folks in from way lower, when GW starts progressing and pps starts a rise toward $3.50.

     

    Thanks for the information!

     

    HardToLove
    2 May 2011, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    One more thing...I believe the EPA info would be bigger news if it was new news but it seems to be details from something we all got wind of back at March's end. Not sure if that was true for those at IHub
    29 Apr 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Not to beat a dead horse. But while reading the Quarterly Activities report from Lynas:
    asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    I was struck by the detail of this report. I have been reading these for a while now and they are all very detailed. But when you compare the Lynas quarterly reports to the rest of the stocks it is a noticeable difference. Sure other stocks are more junior so the quarters will not have the same detailed activity. But what about Moly? Do we get this type of detail or updates from them? Not at all. Even if you put all of their press releases together you would be nowhere near the Lynas level of information.
    29 Apr 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Ishikawa
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    If Lamp has critical equipment from China as per the report, does that mean that Lynas is using Chinese Technology ? Is that why all the hire-hands at Lamp spoke Chinese ? Is that also the reason why LAMP can skip the plant acceptance test which includes the design verification tests ? This normally takes more than six to nine months for any new chemical processing plant and no time is allocated in this report.

     

    Is LAMP operation in Malaysia contracted out to the Chinese ? Makes me wonder if the unnamed buyer that they finalised the contract with is not a Chinese entity ! Have a feeling NC and his Chinese lieutenant is not straight with us.
    29 Apr 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    @chihawk,

     

    [Remember: I'm long Lynas but ready to sell based on any further blunders on Malaysian P.R. or the Forge deal]

     

    I have read everyone's various reports, too; I have never perceived that Lynas's was noticeably more detailed. Every business has stuff they trumpet, and other stuff they sweep under the rug; Lynas is no different.

     

    Egregious example: there is nothing explicit in Lynas's report about their tailings storage facility problem. This was known to Lynas well before the report was submitted (31-March); notice was sent to the government Department of Environment and Conservation on 29-March. The QAR says misleadingly, "All construction activity at the Concentration Plant was completed during the quarter, with Practical Completion occurring on 31 March 2011." They then admit: "The company is currently working on satisfying the final requirements to meet the conditions of the received approvals from the Western Australia Department of Environment to obtain the 'License to Operate'..." but fail to describe the amendment that was required, and the significant immediate on-site work installing a new lining to make part of the tailings storage facility usable initially, and then to finish it in the future.

     

    For those unaware of this issue, the quote below is from page 11 of Lynas's Environmental Assessment Report updated 1-Apr, here:
    tinyurl.com/6enjhya

     

    "Amendment dated April 2011: The Lynas Corporation have constructed the tailings storage facility with a higher permeability than what was required by the original works approval. The proposed amendment is that works will be undertaken to line a section of the facility so that discharges may commence whilst a further amendment is prepared outlining the works required to bring the entire facility to an acceptably low level of permeability."

     

    Personally, I assume mere construction incompetence; I never believed your unique claims about Lynas technical leadership. But we can expect conspiracy theorists to perceive this sequence as evidence that Lynas may have tried to extend the lifetime of the tailings pond while poisoning the local ground water, thus conveniently rendering the surrounding area useless for its previous activity (grazing livestock).
    2 May 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry if it was discussed before (i didn't find any post in concentrators) but anyone as an opinion on Largo Resources (TSX LGO) ?

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    29 Apr 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    I know it is not a REE company but vanadium seems to be an interesting additional mineral.

     

    I have initiated a small position on LGO in march and just wanted to know if someone here is also following this company
    29 Apr 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Any metal considered strategic makes up part of our conversations as part of the backdrop to rare earths. We are always interested in anything along those lines which helps our trading accounts. Sometimes there is a pause in the action on rare earths but something of interest happens at the same time with the other metals.
    The world could use additional vanadium especially if it will be used for batteries more often. It should work out well for you, abfrbe, but it is probably in order to keep an eye out for some kind of stock market downturn in the future.
    www.hardassetsinvestor...
    www.theaureport.com/pu...
    29 Apr 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    IIRC, vanadium is being talked up a lot as a good material to supplant other materials in high-performance batteries.

     

    I don't recall the details, but it's in the front of my mind.

     

    A google search will probably yield good results if one wants more details.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 06:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19491) | Send Message
     
    I should have read your post before I commented!

     

    Apologies for the noise!

     

    HardToLove
    29 Apr 2011, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the links

     

    LGO did a nice up (+9%) yesterday... I'll track a little bit more this stock
    30 Apr 2011, 06:11 AM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    I think I might step out of LYSCF for a while. Take te profits and let things settle.
    29 Apr 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In case you missed it, I took profits (still overweight though) on Lynas today. I am thinking we could see lower lows next week...
    29 Apr 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11198) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm. Maybe one final top off the tank buying opportunity.
    29 Apr 2011, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just got bored, I think, and decided to try to scratch the bottom a little deeper. If it turns around Monday, I just add again.

     

    But the Aussie investors are really exercised over the Crown Depost sale. As OMG mentions, its getting poisonous over there, and the ASX is still leading for Lynas (and with all the venom, it probably will as long as this nastiness festers).

     

    Of course, NC could announce an end to the madness at any moment, and it would be worth a nice pop back near the top, all by itself.

     

    Maybe he is just seeking a greceful exit from the plan...
    29 Apr 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    bukdow,
    I'm adding, so can I buy your shares?
    29 Apr 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    You probably already did. I am taking my profits in NOURF as well. I'll earmark the NOURF shares so you can pick those up. I hate seeing 100%+ profit get pared down.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm holding NOURF for now.
    29 Apr 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    GWC: I asked a question above about Bryon Capital's new valuation for GWC. A little bit of googling turned up their new research report. I don't know enough about the company to second guess most of their assumptions, but one caught my eye. In their discounted cash flow analysis they assume that $495 million of future cash needs will be met with "equity". But they leave the current 457 million shares unchanged. Nice trick if you can raise equity without issuing any more shares.
    29 Apr 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    In certain private placements the shares are not dilutive and have a lock-in period. It all depends upon how it is structured.
    29 Apr 2011, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Bottom line is there is a built in hedge against the downside if you believe Mt. Weld will crank soon. I am more convinced today after looking at the EPA report and believe, for reason stated above (related to NC noving meeting) that this will happen and pps will respond...that's my bet...and MHO
    29 Apr 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Whoa...I noticed Meta's pps move earlier, but just now saw the volume. This is very noteworthy for their trading. 580k+ traded compared to 48k avg.
    What I have noticed recently is REE stocks taking looks upward a few times...receeding, then taking off to whole news levels. See Quest, See Alkane, see NOURF
    This will be one to watch as it has taken a few peeks into the high .60s recently and now on higher volume
    I full expect NOURFs recent peeks upward to turn into more permanent movement soon...adding more today...again
    BTW someone snagged 30k chs @.88 NOURF today
    29 Apr 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • bukdow
    , contributor
    Comments (860) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. I sold 30k shares of NOURF at 0.88 today.
    29 Apr 2011, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • psmith819
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
     
    what made you sell off today bukdow? I figured you would wait this drop out.
    29 Apr 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Liking the ongoing "taking profits 101" discussion. I have learned a bit from onserving Robert Ferguson's explanations. Can anyone tell me abit about the significance of a 8% (ish) trail? I get the 108% sell 1/2 and ride thing. Is 8% (in Mr. Ferguson's case) a number which represents some historical % fall that would indicate more than an intraday blip or pause in a stock?
    29 Apr 2011, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    OK, this Concentrator is now officially FULL, lets move to the new Concentrator, no pushing, no shoving, no bubble gum chewing...

     

    888888888888888888888
    29 Apr 2011, 05:26 PM Reply Like
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