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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, May 5, 2011 136 comments
    May 4, 2011 9:21 AM

    "Planetrise"
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC looking good tonight downunder....

     

    Particularly as the rest of the Aussie REE stocks are sucking sand and looking very peeked right now. Of course, Northern had a very good day today up here...

     

    Watchout for all the other miners and commodity stocks, though. Traders are terrified that the exchanges in the West have all gone mad (evidence 5 margin calls for silver in a week), while those in the BRICs are looking at nasty inflation and taking steps which put pressure on equity markets...

     

    Cash is king, particularly if you managed to pull enough out of the markets early enough to be in a position to pick and choose now.

     

    I have started re-entering silver, in a small way, with SDXXF warrants. Still tracking to see whether we are plateauing out at something near a bottom, or still sliding down, just a little slower than earlier this week...

     

    Opportunities abound, but the timing is both crucial and tricky.
    5 May 2011, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    Very sharp thinking on connecting the dots about the significance of the silver crash on Tom Armistead's part.
    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    6 May 2011, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    Tasman reported metallurgical test results from Norra Karr mineralization Wednesday. Source here:
    www.tasmanmetals.com/s...

     

    Key statement: "Greater than 90% of REE's have been recovered from the Norra Karr mineralization during leach testing, by applying a pre-leach at room temperature, followed by an acid roast and leach." Further optimization to be done on recovery fraction and costs.

     

    That's a non-trivial sequence, but it's an impressive recovery rate, particularly in view of their very low grade (0.54% TREO) mineralization. It's also one risk factor eliminated. I was surprised that TASXF showed no strength in response to this news. In fact, Tasman has been cranking out news releases for the last week, with this being the topper... and yet the stock has faded.

     

    Analysis? Opinions?
    6 May 2011, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. I mentioned their methodology in the Concentrator - because it is true that the key is not who digs what out of the ground, but what can be done with it afterward, starting with concentration and seperation. The Aussie juniors are on this problem as well, and there is a ton of work being done. These news snippets are, indeed, "nontrivial". Good catch, GH.
    6 May 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    GH,
    This recovery rate is normal for xenotime ore. It is the best HREE ore by far. Northern Minerals has shown similar results with their xenotime. The big difference is samples and historical data suggest both John Galt and Browns Range with be about TEN TIMES the grade of Norra Karr. Think of all the advantages in costs, total amount produced, tons per annum and capital savings you have at 5% versus 0.5% TREO. Ore grade is not everything, but is matters big time when the difference could be this large.
    Next consider NTU's infrastructure, mining friendly government and experienced team and it is game long over before it starts. Tasman will never produce. There are too many cost effective alternatives that should produce much more much and sooner then Tasman. I mean these guys are Ucore without the US government sugar. My advice...stay away. And they are not a trade. With no fundamentals they are a trap and nothing more.
    6 May 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » With Tasman I include the strong zirconium (1.7x% cutoff) along with the REEs (.4% cutoff as I recall). This allows it to meet my personal 1.5% (overall) cutoff minimum standard. I also believe Tasman is very likely to receive sugar from the EU (who if anything are even more prone to this behavior than the US). Its noteworthy that their current mining plan (evidenced by the results in the recent lab tests and trials) is to use field leaching without any pre-concentration or seperation. This would mean that they would jump past the current bottlenecks troubling GWM, MCP and Lynas.

     

    Of course, all this is extremely early speculation.
    6 May 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    In that case TB,
    Sell all of your Tasman and put it in Alkane. That way you will get higher grades, sooner to production, a real business model, a cheaper stock, and some gold as well.
    Look, this thing will not produce and will not find a partner either. It is going to zero. In fact, I wish they would partner with Stans so we can crush those two clowns together. It would be two for the price of one zero that way. I wanted to buy Tasman at one time. I've got several friends in Scandinavia and the CEO is a bloke. Emotionally, I wanted to find something. But the stock is a total loser IMO.
    The better calculation TB, is to take the value of your Tasman now and count it as short term loses against your short term gains. The thing sucks. Sorry.
    6 May 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, I treasure our talks like this, I really do! And I won't say you are wrong, its just that I see this particular situation differently.

     

    And I like Alkane fine (though currently out of it at the recent high, booked excellent profits, looking for a re-entry at a lower level).

     

    And I realize I may well be in the minority in my belief that we are now entering what I call, for lack of a better phrase, "The Geopolitical Action Zone"....

     

    The U.S. is about to jump feet first into the REE/Strat. sector, and the time is coming fast. In a way we might even date this process from when the Australian government (left wing and hardly known as strategic thinkers) blocked the sale of Lynas to the Chinese. Or perhaps it was when the Canadians blocked the sale of GWM to MCP/GS. At any rate, this sector is about to be over-run with government "help", and by no means will this always be a good thing. BUT we ignore this factor at the peril of our investments.

     

    One of the reasons MCP continues to cast such a long shadow and even manage to shade out many smaller companies is the backing they are thought to enjoy with the Federal government. This was the source of much of the largely successful "MCP has won the REE race and owns the ex-China REE sector" mantra which they have parlayed into a $70 stock price and grossly inflated market cap (despite all the downsides folks like you and I have pointed out in their terribly flawed logic).

     

    SOMEONE will gather a similar status in Canada. I think this might be Quest or AVL, though GWM is likely to get a piece of all THREE subsidy pies because of their strategic positions in Canada, America and the UK.

     

    In the EU, I had seen it as a horserace between the U/REE deposits in Greenland (GDLNF primarily, though perhaps HUDRFin the mix) vs Tasman. The Uranium question splits the EU right down the middle, with some countries utterly dependent on nuclear powers, and others horrified at the sight of it. When the Japanese UD reactors melted down, I altered my view of the horse race, and I now give the clear lead to TASXF and their very low radioactive mix deposits. The EU has (unlike America, which is still mucking around our pork-ridden legislative process) already put a process en train to setup strategic stockpiles of REEs and other strategic minerals. Likely beneficiaries are GWM's LCM unit in the UK - SilMet (particularly now with their MCP ownership replacing their failing Russian supply chain) - and (I believe) Tasman, rounding out the integration.

     

    All this is guesswork and supposition, and could be 100% wrong. I'm not betting the farm on any of it, but I am betting a little.
    6 May 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I respect the point. I'm not sure I agree. But being anti-nationalism in my attitudes, I might well be under estimating your point. As for our talks. I often hope my blunt style is not taken the wrong way, and you especially, never disappoint me.
    I appreciate the color of your words and art, and especially like your sci fi artwork. Most sci fi is not so real to me. Your art has a color and detail that works with my weak imagination.
    6 May 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): S&P ASX down 0.26% and Lynas up by ~2.3%. With the 20 day SMA at ~A$2.33 and falling and another nickel rise in share price to A$2.25, it shouldn't take long for the gap to close even if price stalls out here.

     

    A corresponding percentage movement would put us at US$2.29.

     

    With the dramatic strengthening of the U.S. dollar yesterday, I anticipate that we wouldn't see a commensurate rise in the U.S. market. Yesterday, we started out with "Currency conversion would indicate a price in the U.S. market today of US$2.3465". We did move up yesterday and we did see price in that range. But the ending was not as pretty as the bump on the ASX suggested it should be.

     

    We actually saw, HLOC, of $2.34, $2.24, $2.32 and $2.24. I would *guess* some of the weakness was dollar related as early on we saw higher range most of the day and weakness late. The dollar rose all day long. But we also had a general downdraft in commodities, specifically, and the market in general. This may be related the CFTC actions specifically or the old inverse relationship between dollar and markets here in general.

     

    Today's currency conversion would give us US$ 2.4011. Pre-market though the dollar seems a little weaker and we'll have to see how it plays out. Plus we have the "Friday Effect" possibly affecting things and the possible continuation of weakness in the market overall. I'll be surprised if we show much strength to the upside.

     

    If money is leaving the market, for whatever reason, weakness should be fairly widespread. I would expect lowering volumes too, which we did see during the U.S. move up in Lynas yesterday, even though ASX volume was strong on a strong move up.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results (gap due to holidays).

     

    U.S. A.M. ..... 5/2........ 5/3........ 5/4.......... 5/5......... 5/6
    Last.......... 2.090.... 2.010.... 2.030.... 2.200..... 2.250
    $+/-.......... 0.000.. -0.080.... 0.020.... 0.170.... 0.050
    Bid............ 2.090.... 2.010.... 2.020..... 2.200..... 2.240
    Offer......... 2.100.... 2.020.... 2.030..... 2.220.... 2.250
    Open........ 2.090.... 2.080.... 2.030..... 2.040..... 2.140
    High.......... 2.140.... 2.080.... 2.080..... 2.220.... 2.280
    Low.......... 1.980.... 1.970.... 1.990..... 2.020..... 2.120
    Volume 57.934M 55.953M 55.263M 55.769M 53.452M

     

    U.S. A.M. 4/20..... 4/21..... 4/27...... 4/28...... 4/29
    Last...... 2.400... 2.450... 2.210.... 2.160.... 2.090
    $+/-...... 0.110... 0.050. -0.240... -0.050.... -0.070
    Bid........ 2.400... 2.440.... 2.210.... 2.150.... 2.090
    Offer..... 2.410... 2.450.... 2.230.... 2.170.... 2.100
    Open.... 2.340... 2.460.... 2.320.... 2.250.... 2.200
    High...... 2.410.. 2.510..... 2.340.... 2.280.... 2.210
    Low...... 2.330.. 2.430..... 2.210..... 2.140.... 2.070
    Vol. 23.182M 18.79M 47.403M 38.218M 42.767M

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    "Rare Earths Seen Growing Less Rare"
    Today's WSJ has this article - nothing really new. GS says this is liable to happen by 2013.
    NC is quoted about China becoming a net importer.
    Alkane and Greenland Min. also get a mention.

     

    online.wsj.com/article...
    6 May 2011, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Tasman seeks a partner?
    6 May 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, isn't everyone? Tasman has a good strategic position, and obviously is aware of time passing and windows slowly closing. Good news, very good news, imo. Of course, I am long TASXF.
    6 May 2011, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    nothing against Tasman, but I hope GWM gets the best one first! :)
    6 May 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I do too (I own a lot more GWM than Tasman), but truth to tell, this will end up being a regional partner for Tasman (might even include the EU, they are now thinking strategically). GWM is, I still believe, prone to end up with a Western defense contractor (their operation in Michigan includes some fascinating wrinkles in this regard).
    6 May 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Trying to measure Quest this morning....gut says hold, but....
    It made quite a dent in my portfolio yesterday
    I cannot decide if it was the dilution...or the GS story. IF I could, it would help
    6 May 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not the dilution (minor story) imo. Overall, the shadowy market makers (banksters all) are moving. JPM, C, GS, MS, and their assorted creatures running the various commodity exchanges and regulatory agencies are busy at work.

     

    The time has come to sheer the sheeple, and they are stampeding the herd into the holding pens.

     

    Agility and clear vision is required to avoid joining the shivering, naked investors who will ultimately be tossed aside into the cruel, cold world. Already great masses of them are huddled miserably around the silver yards...

     

    Quest MIGHT turn around handily when they get uplisted in a week or 2. Will that offset the mayhem which will take place between now and then? I don't know. I have a nice bet made that it will, but as I said yesterday, when the stock drops to $7.20 (and it hit below that, briefly, yesterday), I become a seller (protective stops guarding my ealier gains). I sold a little yesterday, and we will see what happens today, but that is where I am on this subject. If I do wipe out at $7.20, I will watch for re-entry at a lower level, close to the $6 area.

     

    Today will be wild. Keep your eyes open, guys...
    6 May 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.btimes.com.my/Curr...
    Lynas comes Under UN scrutiny

     

    this may be old news but I thought I should post it in case some Lynas holders had not seen it...
    6 May 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Dollar dropping so far, a bit. May help out stocks and Lynas et al if it continues.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Goldman Sachs Analyst Predicts ‘Severe’ Rare Earths Deficit

     

    "the global rare earths market likely faces a 18,734 metric-ton deficit of the rare metals this year, equivalent to 13.2 percent of worldwide demand"

     

    www.tradershuddle.com/...
    6 May 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • QuickChat
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    I agree with this - my own number is somewhat higher, between 19kmt and 20kmt. None of these official estimates take into account the large smuggling trade which has now been ended.
    6 May 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Awright QC! What'd you do to TB? We want him back here.

     

    If he has even one little crack in his shell, you're done for!

     

    Do we need a hostage negotiator?

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.google.com/finance...

     

    INNER MONGOLIA BAOTOU STEEL RARE-EARTH

     

    Check out their market cap and PE ratio

     

    The PE ratio is so ridculous its unbelivable.

     

    One can only dream LYC will run like this one day
    6 May 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Isn't this the partner to the California Green company that assaults me with banner ads? You know the the guys. The banners say "Game Over China" or something like that. I can't remember, but I appreciate the mention so that I can say I think Tasman and Stans should partner with Inner Mongolia Bautou Steel Rare Earth. Lotta toss out there today.
    6 May 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    No, chi, that is a company mining within China in its Inner Mongolia region. The other firm doing business with a partner in Mongolia is not recommended for consideration.
    There is nothing amiss with Tasman that I can tell.
    resourceinvestingnews....
    6 May 2011, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Looking like Engdahl's interview on bnn.ca yesterday might have had an effect. Up a little bit so far and 1/2 of yesterdays volume @ 11:00.

     

    Of course, volume usually tanks after the early morning bounce, so I don't think it'll match yesterday's. And the price likely will have difficulty holding up, much less continuing up.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Was the dip enough to reset the stoch in your opinion regarding GWMGF?
    thanks!
    6 May 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    What is meant by "reset the stock"?

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I meant the stochastics... I thought it was a little overbought and would not move much higher given where they were.. .. Of course, I did not mean that GWMGF should have moved down so much... a reset in time would have sufficed. :|
    6 May 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Stochastic is out of oversold and didn't quite make it in there in this last little dip.

     

    But I'm watching the trend lines and volume more.

     

    I want to see what it does. It's above a longer-term falling resistance, so that is no a potential support. Does it ride it down now or start to break away from it?

     

    It's also above a rising support. Does it ride it up, pull up, up and away? Or follow it?

     

    The two trend lines have crossed and we are one day past the apex.

     

    Stocks often have a change in trend when the apex of a triangle (which these two trend lines make) forms and the apex formed yesterday.

     

    If we see the upward price today supported by decent and/or improving volume, then there's a good chance we go above $0.83/$0.84 again.

     

    We are still doing a long-term consolidation pattern whose range has narrowed a bit.

     

    IMO, we want to see it move up and start bumping a shorter-term falling trend resistance that is about $0.885 today.

     

    That shorter term resistance is matched with a shorter-term rising support that's about $0.72 today. Again another triangle being formed but we're along way from both the apex and the 66%-75% lateral distance where you can start looking for a break out one way or the other.

     

    If you're looking to trade, I don't see a good entry point yet - you want to catch it at one of the two support lines to go long. I'm waiting to determine which support line it's going to honor. Right now the longer-term one at ~0.78 today looks like it might be the one.

     

    If you're looking to invest here, it seems the downside risk (ignoring the things TB mentioned down below) is ~$0.73, so if you can stomach a potential ~9% drop as you watch it, you should be OK to enter here.

     

    My longer term broadening wedge thingy mentioned in the insta is still in play AFAICT, so there's still an excellent chance that a good break to the upside will appear in the near future.

     

    Bollingers are converging, so a change seems to be coming ... a week or less?

     

    Anyway, to summarize, I'm doing nothing until I see what the change out of consolidation brings.

     

    Still long, still strong, still waiting.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Tasman's CEO says they will be hitting AMEX listing in 2 or 3 months.
    6 May 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Let's face it, listing is a lot easier and more profitable than mining. Trouble is, if you don't mine you will end up de-listed. Careful out there everyone.
    6 May 2011, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Posted this earlier on wrong board...Have a great day/weekend all!

     

    (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) Looks O.K.....I'll hold. I have quite a bit and it rained on my would-be parade yesterday....I mean that sideways driving rain that stings on contact!

     

    All is well except a couple of my non-rees...time to visit the other Insta...

     

    Love you guys/gals!
    :)
    6 May 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5031) | Send Message
     
    Great Western's got a new presentation:
    www.gwmg.ca/images/fil...
    6 May 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Well, they're getting with the PR program. That'll help solve the problem they've mentioned about the market not understanding their story.

     

    Thanks for that link!

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good. Now they are getting with the game, particularly important to give good dognpony when waiting for government manna...
    6 May 2011, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Did you notice the time-frame for the processing plant? If it's not just "desired", but is really planned, that implies they're at least in serious discussions with a JV partner. Otherwise they could never make that date.

     

    If they're not in discussions already, they shouldn't publ;ish that target.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I totally agree. It sure seems like they are getting ready to announce something... (will it be something we like though? that keeps me up at night) They have a project manager, a bidding request out, and then the CEO says "weeks if not days" away from starting.
    There were only two options under discussion: debt or a partner. I got the impression they were not into doing more dilution (for a change).
    So it seems like more than one good news PRs are coming our way.
    If not, there will be hell to pay I presume.
    6 May 2011, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think something else is implied, HTL...

     

    GWM is seriously considering going it alone, probably with a loan guarantee from Uncle Sugar, but maybe even lacking that.

     

    Let's see, they will be needing $30million just to breakground and provide for the physical plant construction... Probably another $10million for sampling programs and remedial work at Steenkampskraal... Add another $10million for contingencies and problems (nothing goes according to plan or costs what it should)... Then operating money for a year, say another $30million, plus research, development, drill programs at their other projects...

     

    Call if $80million, and that's just the bare bones, and doesn't include the revamped and enlarged AMP line in the UK...

     

    And then there's the logic that if you have to go to the well, you include a little something for the insiders, plus the bankster that handles the stock for you...

     

    $100million. Current market cap of GWM is about $280m, so dilution is roughly 36%...

     

    Assuming stock price is $.80, that puts it down to somewhere aroung $.57, and with the usual overshoot caused by angry investors, probably dip down into the $.40 range before it stabilizes.

     

    OR they get subsidies that pay the freight, or a JV partner who pays for the bulk of the buildout.
    6 May 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    One other possibility, presuming no JV: look to their partners in Steencampskraal? If the folks in South Arfica want to the jobs, revenue, ... and the partner with interests in promoting black's interests, they might get some really sweet deal?

     

    I don't know of course, just trying to think of alternatives to the worst possible scenario.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Could happen. If it should, then GWM would have hit 4 out of 4, 4 different countries all subsidizing one of their arms.
    6 May 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    What historically happens to pps, in cases where a larger entity buys out a company like GWMG? Every situation is probably different? I agree though, from what Ive read GWMG wants to go it alone as much as possible.
    6 May 2011, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    From what I've seen, the bought company is purchased for a premium over market cap and pps rises to that level or just below and the buying company often, but not always, has pps drop.

     

    A lot depends on how the investment community views the deal as being immediately accretive or not.

     

    Usually the community just considers the dilution of the stock value, either because shares are issued for the purchase or because cash is taken off the books or debt is undertaken to make the purchase. And that drops pps for a while.

     

    HardToLove
    6 May 2011, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HT.
    TB's scenario scares me to death. $0.40 pps would give me a heart attack.(gwmg)
    6 May 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's why we should all hope they get a JV partner. They are really not capitalized to keep pulling the train all by themselves.
    6 May 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Good point TB
    6 May 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the analysis on GWMG guys! Loaded up two days ago.
    6 May 2011, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    www.techmetalsresearch.../

     

    jack lifton and golden slacks
    7 May 2011, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As usual, I agree with MOST of what Jack says.

     

    "There will be no large-scale sustained production of any of these forms outside of China, the metals and alloys in particular, for several years yet."

     

    I believe he will be surprised by how quickly the LAMP accomplishes this goal, and within about a year.

     

    GWM will also do this, but NOT in truly "large scale", which is not their niche, plan or prediction, in any event. Neo also.

     

    He is correct about ALL the others. MCP will not do it, nor will any other REE junior.

     

    And when the REE stockpiles zero out in about a year, the panic which will ensue will eclipse anything we have seen to date.
    7 May 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (QREDF): Interview on bnn.ca

     

    watch.bnn.ca/clip29871...

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    .82% niobium at QREDF -- Alkane says they have .46% Nb2O5 at their Dubbo Zirconia Project and have produced 300kg of "niobium products" at their demonstration plant. Another reason to like Alkane.

     

    That BNN interview didn't seem to spark much interest in QREDF stock.
    7 May 2011, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ungawah,
    About half of the developing projects in niobium that are measured rank higher than QREDF. Honestly, I am flat out sick of the promotion language without the numbers to back it up. Moly is the biggest offender in this regard and Canada as a whole is a close second.
    I like Great Western and Neo Materials. Then I could see taking a flier on Hudson Resources. After that I could see the Canadian owned African mine under Montero as a good risk trade.
    But for heavies NTU could blow away all of Canada's heavies. For a mixed metal HREE stock I'd take Alkane over any Canadian stock based on the timeline. I'd say Arafura will process before all of the planned Canadan process ideas (except Neo and GW which already process). For an Integrated I think Lynas is king. And for low thorium bastanite, I'll take Peak Resources (Aussie stock/ African mine) over Canada and the Peak gold as an extra.
    Now, I do respect that others like Quest and Avalon and several other stocks with projects in Quebec. But I can't justify the numbers.
    Lifton's last article suggests to me even Ucore's number may be up. He does not say that, but he mentions a private mine and talks about the importance of by-products in rare earth mining. All of that describes the private Wings Enterprise's Pea Ridge project. This is a high grade HREE iron ore mine in the political battleground state of Missouri. I think it prevails over Ucore and fits with either REE or MCP as a US strategic metal solution. If that happens Ucore is a big loser. Time will tell.
    But the Lifton article also sends a strong warning. He sees the rare earth bottleneck going on for a while, but still sees a major cull in the stocks over the next year. That means we have to pick our trades wisely and only the top numbers will survive even in this bottleneck.
    I am not a believer in diversity when it comes to juniors. Having several hoping one is a home run tends to make more sense before the facts then after. I'd rather own three or four and rotate based on catalysts. This forces me to pick the very best stocks and watch over them very closely. I think that is the key to junior success. Just MO.
    7 May 2011, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Digging a bit deeper, apparently Brazil and Canada are currently the two biggest producers of niobium with as much as 2.5% Nb2O5 claimed by CBMM in Brazil. CBMM was (is?) partly owned by Molycorp -- at least when it was owned by Unocal. It looks like the Canadian niobium deposits are not nearly as rich.

     

    I'm hanging on to my Alkane, Arafura, Neo Mat. and NTU. Ucore was one of Lifton's favorites 2 or 3 weeks ago, so I'll watch it if he has changed his opinion.
    7 May 2011, 11:22 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    CBMM now shows as a "private company" -- no opportunity for us.
    :-(
    7 May 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas' Crown deposit is 1.07% Nb based on the 2005 JORC.
    8 May 2011, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been keeping an eye on Wings for over a year. Problem there is the lack of investible corporate structure, and zero maintenance on their information, web site, and so forth. I like the narrative, which is quite similar to the deposits which made China a REE power. Natural logic to magnet production chains...

     

    If they can seperate out the interesting parts which form the kernel of a strong miner, I might take a flyer at the resulting stock.
    8 May 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 2nd Richest deposit known to exist next to the Brazilian, from what I have heard. Another reason why selling it for peanuts is not a good idea.
    8 May 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Very true TB,
    I buy them big time if I could. But with the rise in REE prices there is zero chance they go public. So...somebody else's money I guess. But we still have to watch them as a player in the market IMO.
    8 May 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Eternal vigilance. One day this one will make headlines, and we can only hope there's a weak IPO we can jump on first.
    8 May 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    What confuses about gwmg is ...unless I am blind or totally senile, they dont have any of their own supply of actual ree product except what is laying on the ground in the steencamp mine???

     

    Have they been pruchasing product to refine from other sources?
    7 May 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Mostly from China, for years. They also get supplies from customers who have their own sources and stockpiles (also from China).

     

    China has had over 95% monopoly for about a decade.

     

    MCP's been putting out about 3kmt for a year or so, and they are trying to boost that to 4kmt in 2011, and the Indians make a few tonnes per year, and the Russians WERE sending a few tonnes to SilMet (but that appears to be ended now...

     

    China IS effectively the whole supply, WAS effectively the whole supply last year, and WILL BE effectively the whole supply in 2011 unless LAMP can wade through Malaysian politics faster than would be apparent.

     

    GWM will either get Steenkampskraal up and running soon, or their new AMP facilities they are building will be idle. As their customers run out of supplies (and the world REE markets come to resemble an empty warehouse), their existing facilities will too.

     

    This is a graphic example of what we mean when we speak of a "race to market". Lets be clear here, folks, we are talking about a race between utter catastrophe and survival of many of these companies, and I'm not just referring to REE juniors like GWM. Major corporations in Japan, Korea, Europe and the United States will take huge hits if they cannot get regular supplies of REEs.

     

    Whatever they WERE making will, of course, still be available from a single source...

     

    Guess which one.
    7 May 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp has said that Silmet will continue to source feedstock from the Russian mine (Revda) as needed to augment the Mountain Pass feedstock. Also from anywhere else that's cost-effective, the goal being to raise Silmet toward 100% of current processing capacity. There are also plans to increase said capacity and keep it fed.

     

    My understanding is that Molycorp has been producing several thousand metric tons of annual output all along (not just for a year); they shut down their active mining in the early 2000's but at that point had sufficient concentrate stockpiled to run their refining operations at that rate through 2015 or so. As their re-start plans have firmed up (not to mention REEs prices), they've raised their refining rates and pulled in that date.
    9 May 2011, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "...a year or so". MCP managed to put out their goal of 3kmt last year, but their production prior to that was haphazard. This is a quantity which is composed almost entirely of lighter elements, of course.

     

    Anyone seeking to understand the SilMet/MCP situation should start with the long video interview and plant tour which is linked downstream somewhere in the past Concentrators (sorry, I have no time to resurrect it, but it is there).

     

    The truth is that the primary feedstock SIlMet was getting from Russian miners (including Revda) had seen a disruption in their agreement, and was composed primarily of niobium in any event (nothing wrong with the niobium business, of course, just the fact that its extraneous to an REE discussion).

     

    MCP is rife with plans to increase this and that. And I believe they truly intend to make good on those plans. SilMet MUST increase their REE processing capacity, that is painfully obvious, for them to even cope with whatever shipments wind their way from California (presumably something less than the Mountain Pass pilot/cobbled together from old parts 3kmt (but with a promised plan to increase it to 4kmt) plant). Presumably the magnet alloys (something under 1kmt total) will go to the small magnet plant MCP bought from the Japanese.

     

    MCP just 2 weeks ago announced re-starting Mountain Pass, which they needed to do, since they have only about 2 years worth of stockpiled ore at 4kmt/year left from the last time the mine was worked.

     

    These numbers are, of course, unimportant in so far as MCP's stock valuation and plans require that they reach over 40kmt/year production in a few years. I believe their estimates as to the time line for accomplishing those goals is extremely optimistic.
    9 May 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Clarification:

     

    China supplies 97% of all REEs used on planet earth right now. That INCLUDES MCP's 3kmt, the dribs and drabs from India and the Russians, and so forth.

     

    Using the rosier estimates from MCP for 2011, China's share declines to something like 95%+. I (and a lot of other people) believe MCP will struggle to get any large and sustainable finished goods out of any future AMP they build (as yet not begun) before 2015. GWM and NEO will probably start contributing small quantities of final product before that, though they will do so by purchasing less pure oxides from sources which lack AMP facilities of their own. Capacities for AMPs involved total small amounts right now, barely enough to handle the output currently seen from MCP, Russia and India (Japan has some AMP capacity of their own, of course). Still, the old cycle where the industry revolves utterly around China will continue...

     

    Until Lynas cranks up their LAMP, none of this will change very much.
    9 May 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (CCJ): Interview on bnn.ca.

     

    Analysts seems to feel there really won't be any major issues for the company nuclear material overall. Talks some REE related to the U aspect too.

     

    watch.bnn.ca/clip29871...

     

    Results discussed by CEO watch.bnn.ca/clip29871...

     

    HardToLove
    7 May 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    China.

     

    NTU and Lynas are looking really good! Interesting times!
    7 May 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    NTU's John Galt heavy rare earths property is located in the Kimberley, that part of Australia which is least developed. It doesn't even have a railroad. Ironically that is the part of Australia which faces Asia, China as much as India, making the potential for future trade a logical lucrative proposition. NTU's position there along with the other miners is very much in a frontier ground- floor kind of situation. The development potential of the region on actually getting the mining output to the markets makes for an interesting research topic.
    The John Galt project is represented by a couple of green dots on the project map located to the east of the Savannah nickel project in the East Kimberley.
    www.dsd.wa.gov.au/docu...
    7 May 2011, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    The John Galt project is located very close to the western edge of the Purnululu National Park, a United Nations World Heritage Site, as shown on this other map. I hope that there will be mining at that project allowed without causing too much environmental fuss.
    www.dsd.wa.gov.au/docu...
    whc.unesco.org/en/list...
    www.naturebase.net/com.../
    7 May 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    The National Park could become a factor down the road, but right now I doubt it. As for the lack of railroad it is a minor issue. At a 5% grade and 80% HREE (10% dysprosium) bulldozers and trucks should work fine. I doubt they will ever feel the need to lay rail track. A simple road on the relatively flat desert terrain should work for NTU's John Galt.
    Remember rare earths are generally small open pit surface mining (JG numbers suggest this would be the case).
    If you Bing map Lynas' Mount Weld (go to world; zoom to Western Australia; enter Laverton, WA; then go south 15-20km south; then use Mt. Weld images to get the right pit sitting by itself) you will see a large gold mine to the south of it where Laverton becomes Leonora at the shores of the dry lake on the map. The scale provides good perspective on the point. You can also compare it to the Pilbera operations in the north of the country as well. This will give perspective on the degree of infrastructure needed for a rare earth mine. The main cost is the concentrator equipment (in Mount Weld's case it can be found about 2km to the west down a dusty desert road next to three and a half ponds).
    8 May 2011, 12:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    NTU is only on my watch list but not on my buy list. I think it is mostly interesting for its phosphate deposits and its connection to Lynas. Its TREO at John Galt is certainly noteworthy. But that needs to be considered against the relatively high "unobtainium factor" or low "exploitability quotient" or however one wants to describe the situation.
    If it succeeds in mining John Galt, NTU will perhaps truck the ore by road trains down the Great Northern Highway to the Port of Wyndham. The highway is built to modern standards; no problem there. The port itself seems to be in need of expansion since the Ord River irrigation expansion project is underway; that will feed more agricultural produce into the port. Panoramic Resources has to use sheds at the port to enclose the road trains haul of nickel concentrate. Then they have to tip the concentrate into the waiting vessels at the wharf because space is at a premium. The other East Kimberley mining projects will put further pressure on the port.
    John Galt is in a region of rugged terrain somewhat on the order of what is seen of the Bungle Bungles in the Purnululu National Park link. Terrain is easily checked at the ACME Mapper Terrain website. I doubt a railroad will be built in that part of the Kimberley because of the rugged terrain.
    mapper.acme.com/?ll=-1... National Park
    www.australianroadtrai...
    www.amsa.gov.au/Marine...
    8 May 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    The dirt road servicing Mt. Weld and its gold mine neighbors connecting to Laverton probably would have to be regraded sometime. There is probably enough business along that corridor to warrant an upgrade so that any unusual flash flooding won't be an issue.
    There is an abandoned railroad spur running east of Malcolm Siding near Leonora going to a dead end at Laverton. Most of it is now a dirt road servicing some gold mines between the two towns. Malcolm Siding is the closest available rail connection to Mt. Weld, a distance of about sixty miles or so going through Laverton.
    The Pilbara has a number of railroads connecting the iron ore mines to the Indian Ocean ports thanks to the large market for iron ore in that part of Western Australia.
    With the price of fuel becoming worse in the future, I imagine it will become more difficult for the road trains (truckers) to service the various operations in the Outback. I would think that more railroads will have to be built in the future.
    wastations.i8.com/KalE...
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    8 May 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    The reason given for several weeks of delays starting ore concentration at Mount Weld was that the road to Laverton became impassable during the recent flooding. Seems like some major re-grading ought to be done?

     

    Transportation of chemicals, fuel, and outputs are a large part of concentration costs. Trucks are far more expensive than RRs per ton shipped... and more so as diesel costs increase.
    9 May 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11418) | Send Message
     
    So what are the good rare earth plays now? Are they all still pink sheets?
    7 May 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Yes Moon, the best plays are still pink slips. I think you already know which is the most popular rare earth play by far now.
    7 May 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Cole Bene'
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Best Time to buy just make sure there for real the deposits that are said to be out there platinum
    7 May 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Here is a brief rare earth chemistry lesson I found helpful and wanted to share:

     

    Most metals can be separated from each other with relative ease because their chemical behavior is so different--they can be preferentially dissolved and precipitated with high efficiency. For example zinc can be separated from gold by throwing in sulfuric acid. Zinc dissolves, gold doesn't. This can be done cheaply on a massive scale.

     

    REE's are a vastly different beast. They are set aside on the periodic table (the lanthanides) for a reason. They are chemically almost identical. As you count up in atomic number (across a row) you change the chemistry of an element because you change the outermost electrons in the orbitals. A few electrons can make an enormous difference when they are on the outside--

     

    Count up five places in row three and you go from aluminum (a reactive metal) to argon (an inert gas). With the lanthanides (REE's) when you count up, you add electrons which are hidden UNDER the outer shell so there is no real change in chemistry. So, if you count up the lanthanide series you go from neodymium (a light REE) to terbium (a beloved heavy REE). The biggest difference is size, not chemistry.

     

    The REE's can only be separated from each other by complicated, expensive methods that Lifton outlines in his article. These processes are specific to the unique mixtures present in any specific deposit and the best methods of extraction and separation can't be predicted a priori. You need lots of money and lots of sweat. What works in China won't work elsewhere without a lot of effort and optimization.
    7 May 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk, to add to your point. The chemicals used to separate the rare earth from one another is a proprietary ingredient created and sourced in China. The ingredients are never revealed to the companies like Lynas but what they do is that they charge a yearly rent to Lynas to get access to the secret mix of chemicals to use at their LAMP plant. Also The secret chemicals used to extract rare earth from mount weld will be a different set of chemicals used in their African deposit due to the deferences in mineralogy in the soil of each deposit.

     

    I tried telling the Australian people at hot copper but they refuse to believe it. There is a alot of people with HUGE ego on that forum.

     

    7 May 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    I dont understand what level and potential there is for GWMG and Lynas with regard to the windfall profits( Im not an accountant,businessman or understand large corporations financial statements) and how these potential large profits may occur when the Worlds lack of supply in REEs comes due and how that affects pps. Moly corp has had hugh pps appreciation but it hasnt been due to increased profits.
    8 May 2011, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.news.com.au/busine...

     

    When i read this article i cant help but smile. Rare earth prices are going to go higher and higher!

     

    FOUR people were taken to hospital and glass doors smashed as a near-riot broke out at Beijing's top Apple store among crowds rushing to snap up the iPad 2.
    Angry shoppers began rushing the store after a "foreign" Apple employee allegedly stepped into the crowd to push and beat people suspected of queue jumping, the Beijing News said.
    After the employee retreated back into the store, a crowd smashed the glass front door and shoved security guards as they surged forward, the report said.....

     

    Read more: www.news.com.au/busine...
    8 May 2011, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): It's like a bulldog with a chew-toy, the press keeps the Malaysian concerns front and center, A news story about it every day in this digital rag.

     

    Of course, the impartiality of the panel is being questioned since the agency that will recommend the panelists has the goal of promoting safe, ... nuclear energy use. The May 5 2011 article "Fuziah doubts IAEA panel impartiality ".

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    And another Malaysian environmental group has jumped on the bandwagon. "Pressure rises on Putrajaya over Lynas plant".

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    Here's results of a search there today.

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    From thestar.com we find an article that includes "The [IAEA] agency’s mission will depart for Malaysia on May 29." So roughly a month plus a month (minimum) to complete the study and we're looking at EOM July, earliest. Then all the machinations that follow to try and support and discredit the results as the two sides battle it out. Another month? That gives us end of August. It's getting tight out there if NC wants us to believe that start-up will not be delayed as he stated in an article earlier.

     

    Other than that, nothing new in this item.

     

    thestar.com.my/news/st...

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2011, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    www.megaupload.com/?d=...

     

    Guys here a download link of the Goldman Sachs report on Lynas. Mind you its about 40 pages!
    8 May 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Nice find. Thanks
    8 May 2011, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • G H
    , contributor
    Comments (407) | Send Message
     
    Let me add my thanks, too. And point out that this came from G-S Australia, not the blithering G-S idiots elsewhere who recently predicted rare earth oversupply in 2013.

     

    Now, some points to ponder... starting with this jaw-dropper (sorry, it's not good news) from page 22: "The tailings contain ~45% of the original REO content".

     

    If this is accurate, then their Mount Weld processing (which produces 40% TREO concentrate) only recovers 55% of the raw ore's TREO.

     

    Ouch. Those who expected Lynas to achieve excellent performance throughout the processing chain might want to revise...

     

    Also, from page 25, the list of LAMP outputs contains nothing but carbonates (Ce, La, Ce/La) and oxides (Nd/Pr, and SEG/heavy). There have been claims in some articles (not on this blog) that the LAMP would produce purified metals. The table on page 25 states that Phase 2 will add add Ce and La oxide products, and *potential* for Ce/La, Nd, and Pr metals.
    9 May 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Here's a hot stock tip for you guys:

     

    [MAVS]
    8 May 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Nothing with symbol? I see oil E&D (MRVKF), energy (MKGP), O & G Exp. (MVRM) and O&G (MAVO) all starting with "MAV", nothing with "MAVS".

     

    Care to elucidate?

     

    HardToLove
    8 May 2011, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Na HTL,
    He means the Dallas Mavs. Just knocked the Lakers out. That's fine with this Spurs fan. :-)
    8 May 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Funny, I started to crack a joke about that team and then thought it would not be appropriate since I thought he was serious!

     

    Oh well, thanks for clarifying.

     

    HardtoLove
    8 May 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Brooksie405
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    HTL:

     

    Me thinks he means a certain basketball team in Dallas. How's that for a contribution to the concentrator?
    9 May 2011, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds3
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Moving Average Standard?

     

    Hang on Bro thats an indicator!
    9 May 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ASX News
    Forge resources requested and is in a trading halt regarding sale of Lynas' Crown deposit. This could be the end to this deal. Could be good news to Lynas holders IMO.
    8 May 2011, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. The only other thing I can think of that it could be would be news regarding the regulatory investigation into the deal, which MIGHT be over and reporting its findings.
    8 May 2011, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    Well, Lynas was up nicely in early trading, but has turned around and is now down a penny...
    8 May 2011, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10214) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton "gently" slams Goldman Sach's 2013 REE supply call, and cast doubts about MCP's production abitlities, all here, in one fine article!

     

    www.techmetalsresearch.../
    8 May 2011, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Thanks -- and some good comments, too.

     

    BTW, Alkane's website says: "Production of uranium remains prohibited in New South Wales but the current flow sheet requires removal of uranium from the zirconium process stream otherwise it contaminates the end products. The uranium recovered by this process would be stabilised and dispersed in to the residue storage facility. The Project would benefit from the flow on effect of less residue management costs and increased revenue from the sale of a uranium product."
    8 May 2011, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1592) | Send Message
     
    The Prodigal returns -- well, when I have an Internet connection anyway...

     

    First, TB, thank you for "Planetrise," so redolent of Angkor Wat.

     

    I've just caught up on the last few concentrators and QCs I've missed while traveling and would like to contribute, from Siem Riep, Cambodia, a possible LYSDY perspective from an article in today's English-language Phnom Penh newspaper that AUS and Malaysia have reached agreement on the handling of Malaysian boat people attempting to emigrate "undocumented" -- what an idiotic PC euphemism for "illegally" -- to Oz.

     

    There's no way of knowing yet, but as a former geopolitical intel analyst and attache in this part of the world, I'll wager there were a number of bilateral issues discussed and compromises reached that were NOT reported on. It wouldn't surprise me if one quid pro quo were assurances that the brouhaha over Lynas's LAMP-light were handled by the Malaysian central govt in their inimitable style. Time will tell!
    9 May 2011, 02:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Welcome back to the home front.

     

    Try to avoid too much comparative analysis of where you've been to where you are now on the Financial/Political capture front. The IMF has already done that for us and rightly labeled us akin to third world countries in the area of regulatory capture by the financial industry and others.

     

    Just kick back, knock back a cold one, enjoy the developing spring weather.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): First, the big news - Forge Resources is in trading halt, as reported above, for up to 48 hours. We don't know for sure why, but there is suspicion it's related to the Crown sale.

     

    There's two documents out this morning though, one details what appears to be shares acquired, small quantities, as part of compensation, and the other document announces the first conference call for the March 31 quarter results to be held 2011/5/12 at 08:00 Sydney time and the second at 17:00 Sydney time. The second will be webcast simultaneously and archived 4 hours later for 12 months.

     

    The company web site has a link for accessing the webcast.

     

    The shares PDF, 9 pages is here.

     

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

     

    The conference call PDF, 2 pages is here.

     

    www.asx.com.au/asx/sta...

     

    The S&P ASX closed up 0.32% while Lynas was down 2.7%. We don't know if it's normal trade action or related to fears about the Forge Crown sale or other.

     

    The 20 day SMA seems to rest around A$2.32 and is dropping. It looks like a race is on to see if the 20 can catch the price, which is trying to distance itself further from the average right now.

     

    Volume has begun to drop off, but there's still a ways to go before we can expect any pause in the price movement before looking for a continuation or reversal indication to start to appear.

     

    The A$ is again a wee bit stronger than the US$ and a conversion would equate the closing price to US$2.3578, indicating the U.S. price drops a couple pennies. An equivalent percentage move would put the price to U$2.317. But with the weakening vome in the U.S. market, don't be surprised if it moves further. That might be aided by the Forge trading halt too, since U.S. investors would have concerns similar to the OZ folks.

     

    Here's last evening's ASX results.

     

    U.S. A.M. ..... 5/9
    Last.......... 2.190
    $+/-........ -0.060
    Bid............ 2.180
    Offer......... 2.190
    Open........ 2.280
    High.......... 2.300
    Low.......... 2.160
    Volume 40.532M

     

    U.S. A.M. ..... 5/2........ 5/3........ 5/4.......... 5/5......... 5/6
    Last.......... 2.090.... 2.010.... 2.030.... 2.200..... 2.250
    $+/-.......... 0.000.. -0.080.... 0.020.... 0.170.... 0.050
    Bid............ 2.090.... 2.010.... 2.020..... 2.200..... 2.240
    Offer......... 2.100.... 2.020.... 2.030..... 2.220.... 2.250
    Open........ 2.090.... 2.080.... 2.030..... 2.040..... 2.140
    High.......... 2.140.... 2.080.... 2.080..... 2.220.... 2.280
    Low.......... 1.980.... 1.970.... 1.990..... 2.020..... 2.120
    Volume 57.934M 55.953M 55.263M 55.769M 53.452M

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks HTL, I was just going to post those pdfs for Lynas.

     

    I'm thinking that there is word floating around downunder that the Lynas investors don't like very much, probably relating to Crown/Forge.
    9 May 2011, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The director share transactions are meaningless, tiny numbers, only a few thousand, and all buys at that.
    9 May 2011, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    LoL! I meant to mention that but the thought seems to have gotten buried in the other verbiage.

     

    <*sigh*>

     

    "I gotta get me a new hat"! quoth the moose... with a new head to match!

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) has received full approval from the Nuclear Regulator of South Africa to commence all opertaions at Steens. While everyone new this was imminent, this derisks the play significantly IMO and gives the go away for further exploration and mine refurbishment etc.

     

    Thoughts on expected action to this announcement.

     

    Thanks. Matt

     

    www.marketwire.com/pre...
    9 May 2011, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): The price action says it all? +7.41% already, $0.87. Volume looks like it will support this by EOD too.

     

    YEE-HAW!

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Yee- Haw is right. I see this as the first step (and first PR) on a road to many good things....
    9 May 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Nice volume on Quest this morning. I will expect this one to set up nicely this week in anticipation of Amex listing...which some think is within a week.

     

    Also, Lynas has May 14th and 15th earnings and conference call....wonder if anything is instore for that.

     

    Between these two larger holdings for me...could make for an interesting start to next week.
    9 May 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    The 1st Lynas Investor Call is Wed. May 11 @ 6pm EST and then the recorded call is in the middle of the night states side.

     

    www.lynascorp.com/cont...
    9 May 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Thinking anyone looking to add/start Metamec may wish to take a lokk somewhere around current range
    9 May 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: Sorry for this here...but I have been trying to post on the other Insta since yesterday (I have a hot stock tip, ya know? ;)) and it says "an error has occured. please try again" Do you know how that works? Thanks.
    9 May 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    I've encountered many times. Several guesses.

     

    "Race condition", least likely.

     

    You started to post something, didn't take or you chnaged you mind and cancelled, you did a C&P attempt to post it and that *appears* to hit their anti-spam software. Sometimes I can get around it by moving the lines around or typing it completely differently.

     

    I *suspect* it also may occur if I'm working in the same thread on two different tabs in my browser.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Got a GWMGF question: So the PR announcement allows them to get started on the refurbishing work but
    "the approvals enable GWMG to develop a mineral resource estimate that is compliant with disclosure requirements as defined by the Canadian Securities Administrators National Instrument 43-101, utilizing available historic data"

     

    what does that mean? There are other hoops to jump through - approvals to get- before they can work underground?
    How long does that take?
    9 May 2011, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): It's saying that they can do the sampling, analysis and submission of old and new samples for analysis to have a National Instrument 43-101 compliant estimate of reserves, resources, inferred, ... etc. that helps shareholders evaluate the potential of the company. This is often one of the important things needed to obtain financing, set JVs, etc.

     

    They can still work all they want.

     

    The big deal is that now they can proceed to develop the 43-101 that will enable them to work more effectively (possibly) on the financial front.

     

    I *think* I've got that right.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GWM is a Canadian company, and 43-101 is a Canadian requirement for Canadian mines. GWM being a Canadian company has to worry about keeping the Canadian bureaucrats happy, and Canadian investors as well, so the 43-101 is a concern for them...

     

    But the South Afrikan government doesn't care about Canadian government regulations, they have their own rules, and the two topics are really seperate. Lacking a Canadian 43-101 compliant set of data did not stop GWM from reaching its agreements with the South Afrikan authorities.
    9 May 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    How hard to get is the Canadian 43-101? And how long does the process take? Months? Years?
    9 May 2011, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It varies, depending on the scope of the project. I would think GWM can resurvey Steenkampskraal WHILE they are working to re-open the mine, so the 43-101 will not necessarily delay anything operationally. It is also likely to discover new reserves, given that modern sampling technology is superior to the old surveys they have now, which were focused on a very different goal (thorium mine) anyway.
    9 May 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    thanks HTL.

     

    Boy that TRER continues to perform well. Congrats to all holders.
    9 May 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I think I jinxed it...it says it is now down 10%. Not a lot of volume which accounts for the swings, I guess.
    9 May 2011, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (TRER): You didn't jinx it - looking at the chart says it *will drop back to at least ~$5.50 over time and likely much lower, IMO.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    From TRER website (project page half way down):
    The government agency and academic research noted above further resulted in several publications, the principal of which was published in the Geological Society of America Special Paper 246 in 1990, p.103-120.

     

    Important conclusions of this paper were:
    * "The rhyolites are so enriched in a number of trace elements that they should be considered large-tonnage, low grade resources of several rare metals, including yttrium, heavy rare earths, niobium, tantalum, lithium and thorium."
    * "Many of the economically interesting trace elements occur as discrete minerals."
    * "The resource is vast. The Round Top laccolith contains at least 1.6 billion metric tons of rhyolite."

     

    Other data from these studies indicated the average REO content of the rhyolite is approximately .069%,* approximately 67% of which are HREE. Niobium**, tantalum**, zirconium, hafnium** and lithium make up another .218% of the rhyolite. Average thorium content is .02% and uranium .004%. The average fluorine content of the rhyolite is 1.36%. The REE bearing minerals are yttrofluorite, yttrocerite, an un-named fluoride and xenotime in the order of their abundance. Thorium is thought to be confined to the mineral thorite and the uranium occurs in uraninite and coffinite and as uranophane and kasolite. Fluorine appears to be principally contained in the mineral cryolite.

     

    Not good enough for this Texan. Nope.
    9 May 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. I have 1000 shares just because I caught it early and tossed it in the sock drawer, but its primary asset imo is the likelihood of political patronage. It does not meet my personal minimum 1.5% cutoff criteria for a long term investment (I am not impressed by fluorine content).
    9 May 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding QSURF, SNDXF, PNPFF, SDXXF, SLW, GPL and AG today...
    9 May 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.marketwire.com/pre...

     

    GWM just got approvals from SA national nuclear regulators. Good timing.
    9 May 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    He-he! That's the one DallasMatt posted above?

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (CCJ): Cameco raised to buy fromm hold by TD.

     

    Looks like the uranium industry may be starting to come back, probably based on valuation.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » News from Japan today that they plan to build more nuke plants in the future, and are counting even more on nuclear power than in the past...
    9 May 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    (HTHXF): With the mania over all sorts of mining stuff, mostly REEs, Hathor Exploration out to do well over the next couple of years. Their services to the mining industry encompass all sorts of mineral E & P efforts, not just REEs.

     

    PPS recently hammered, for good reason, but I believe it has an excellent chance to recover.

     

    DD required and I'm going to be doing some too before I decide.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Crap! Wrong company as to "services to the industry". This is an exploration co. I was thinking of (AQSFF) when I wrote that part of it.

     

    (HTHXF) does uranium exploration and holds some property leases.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its OK. We forgive you, just because you're so (hard to) loveable.
    9 May 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.pittsburghlive.com/x/

     

    Story to keep on the radar screen, folks. Feds are on the move...
    9 May 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18294) | Send Message
     
    Which story? I can't see what you're pointing too.

     

    HardToLove
    9 May 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crap. That site just went sideways... This has the bulk of it, at least paraphrased.

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...
    9 May 2011, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    Interesting take on the China/Voldemort deal. Note the tie in to REEs at the end...
    9 May 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF is having a very nice day. 15 minutes to go and the price has held pretty steady throughout the day. No gap and crap so that is a positive.
    9 May 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5031) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if this is redundant, I am a bit behind.
    Iam Gold's (IAG)compelling story is in its niobium mine potential:
    www.iamgold.com/Englis...
    9 May 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Based on what was discussed yesterday, 0.44 and 0.51% Nb2O5 is not particularly high. If other miners with richer deposits come online, IAMGold's niobium may look less attractive.
    9 May 2011, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5031) | Send Message
     
    They are the only one currently operating in North America. It matters that they mine what they have efficiently more than the fact that richer deposits exist, imo.
    10 May 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2205) | Send Message
     
    Germanium is one of the themes of a mining conference today. The rare metal doesn't seem to have much to do with rare earths other than it will alloy with gadolinium for possible refrigeration purposes.
    www.asianmetal.com/Eve...
    indiumsamplesblog.com/.../
    9 May 2011, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    The new Concentrator is available for immediate occupancy! Rent is low, and the terms are too good to turn down!

     

    So bring your finest comments with you...

     

    All Aboard the new Concentrator!

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    9 May 2011, 04:51 PM Reply Like
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