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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 17, 2011 192 comments
    Jun 17, 2011 12:31 PM

    "Collectible" by Stan Bruns
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last Comment from the prior Concentrator by toly:

     

    Back to the Star...

     

    IMO, the Star needs to get it's subscription base up... You know, that article's headlines could read "Malaysia To Approve Lynas Operating License" and then discuss how the completion of the waste disposal plan as a final step in this inane process...
    17 Jun 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    Your comment this morning set off red flags Trip. I decided to cancel my bid for (LYSDY) at 1.9, which it just hit.

     

    I am sure we are all disappointed with the Lynas situation. They built their concentrator, yet they seemed to get a minimal pop on that accomplishment. They are nearly finished with their processing plant, a Herculean hurdle. Yet that whole process is now under a cloud with respect to when, if ever it will be allowed to operate.

     

    Meanwhile the uncertainty associated with that cloud is driving the stock price further and further down. I was not thinking about massive delays in getting LAMP up and running. If the delay was substantial (6 months beyond the scheduled opening), it would very likely have an effect on Lynas's financial situation, and that raises dilution prospects.
    17 Jun 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am much more comfortable presenting a positive case for stocks I believe in...

     

    This sort of gloomy prognosis gives me problems, but I believe the data needs to get out there for each of us to review.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • RMF - Rethinking Modern Fin...
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Zerohedge article - supports LYSDY and says it will grow

     

    is.gd/ZR90Tb
    17 Jun 2011, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    Right, but ZH does not mention the cloud over the operating permits for Lynas's Malaysia LAMP facility.

     

    Trip implied a delay... my concern is the longer the delay, the more likely the delay will cause a problem with Lynas's financial planning and could cause a dilution... I was going to buy more on the dip, but I think I will just wait until we get more info on the timing prospects for the needed operating permits.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am not certain there will be a delay, but I consider it likely. And not just because of my dim view of the IAEA and internationalist bureacracies in general. Deutchebank recently added 6 months to their estimate (March 2012) of when the LAMP would go live, and that was an estimate BEFORE much of the wackiness in Malaysia.

     

    But I find the low prices we are seeing very attractive, from a more long term stance. I am just waiting to see if this drop extends into next week. We still have some time before the IAEA is expected to issue their report, and to the extent that the process is hurting Lynas' stock price, its likely to continue. Added to the general REE sector rout, its a buying opp in an active mode which could go on for quite a while.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    The concentrate is still valuable,perhaps if a deal isn't done on the LAMPS,they could sell it to China,who could process and stockpile it.Would not be anywhere near as lucrative as vertical integration,but will prevent the stock price from cratering in the immediate term.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    nitro,
    I think you are getting ahead of yourself there. We will do better then that. The old hockey rule still applies: Keep your head up. You'll take less hits that way.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Heads up in hockey,head down in golf,jeez,this is getting confusing,LOL!
    17 Jun 2011, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Head down in golf? Geez nitro, no wonder why I sucked so bad? :-)
    17 Jun 2011, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Added a little GWM today, holding off on Lynas until next week...
    17 Jun 2011, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I played golf today,didn't help,still thinking of Lynas.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    nitro,
    I think Lynas will be fine. I know a lot of bloggers looking for a problem to explain the drop. So far none of us are finding anything. Malaysia looks fine. Losing money still sucks. But I can't find a reason to sell. I will tell you if I find something and let you evaluate it from there. In the meantime, it's just a bad day on the ship, best to just sail through it for now IMO.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ditto. I will also tell anything I find, when I find it, flattering to my past predictions or not. Speculation is all we have at this point, though the timing of the China memo and the abrupt fall off in REE values were timed to a "T".

     

    This is not the ONLY sector where the media pundits and xperts simply don't "get it", but its the one we have to cope with if we want to invest here.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I used to play golf. I was horrible. Its one of the things in my life to which I devoted endless hours of pain and agony in order to lose ground...

     

    Thank god I developed bursitis in both shoulders and was forced to quit.

     

    Its probably one of the rare cases where a debilitating disease saved a person's sanity.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I suck at golf. Put a lot of good people at risk for serious injury. Had to give it up too. Truth is I hated it. Yes, I hated it because I totally sucked at it. That was the main reason-zero skill or talent, and unteachable. You'd hate it too if half your shots were better defined as gardening and bush trimming. Liked the 19th hole. Haven't givin' that up.
    17 Jun 2011, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    The only solace I gain from LYSDY's price action recently is the volume isn't out of hand.In fact,whether its going up or down,the volume is always a fraction of the float.Since it isn't a question of "lock up",or stock options,I can only surmise the "smart money" still thinks its a winner.Thanks to Chihawk and TB for your supportive posts,and all the great research you do.
    17 Jun 2011, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    And the ASX:LYC volume is in line. Small elevation after joining the MSCI Global Standard Indices, but in line overall.
    www.lynascorp.com/cont...
    Look, I think we all wish we would have played this better, but we hold stock (not options). And the fundamentals still look good to me. Time is on our side as long as Lynas keeps growing and developing as a company. Juniors go up and down. And the ASX loves volatility. Better days around the corner IMO. Till then Happy Father's Day!
    17 Jun 2011, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    I played with Lynas all day, couldn't stop thinking about golf...
    18 Jun 2011, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Hawk: Jack Nicklaus once said the best round of golf he had ever played was only 80 % perfect.

     

    Toughest, most frustrating sport to learn I ever undertook, by far. I've played many of the top 100 courses in the US, and many times down those hallowed fairways, about 40 yards left of the short grass, deep down in some cactus strewn barranca, was me stamping around trying to find my brand new lost $4.00 Titleist, seething, cursing, ready to tear the sky in half.

     

    No other sport do people curse themselves as much as in golf. I no longer play, except putt putt. Swear there, too.

     

    I still contend with Lynas that the deal will be made. After the back room deals are made.
    18 Jun 2011, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8575) | Send Message
     
    Price of rare earths goes parabolic. Might want to look at Lynas again as well as others discussed.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/arti...
    17 Jun 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good to see you, Guns. Welcome aboard.

     

    And I agree, Lynas and GWM are both in my sights (though I am way overweight both already). I believe this is a buying opp, though I am holding off on Lynas until next week (want to see where it bottoms first). GWM I added some today at $.60.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    double, Guns. Greetings thanks for the link. How's the wing doing?
    17 Jun 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, tell us, how is the shoulder? I have bursitis, so I know how painful a shoulder injury can be.
    17 Jun 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8575) | Send Message
     
    I have a big water ballon (swollen with fluids) on my elbow from to much physical therapy and getting ready for a IRS full blown audit at the business, digging through boxes of documents and invoices.

     

    They came today did an interview, took some more documents and said they will call me if they have any questions. I guess this could go on for a while at this rate.

     

    Arm is doing better but not great, just better than before. It seems to get an RCH better each day. At least its heading in a positive direction.
    17 Jun 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ouch. You have my sympathy...

     

    And for the arm, too.
    17 Jun 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Yup.
    17 Jun 2011, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Ouch on both counts!

     

    I just finished going through an IRS audit.

     

    Since I'm small potatoes, all they could find to nit-pick was small potato stuff. We fought and won 99%. It turns out they have some constraints, apparently, as when we said we take it to the law judge they got a lot less nit-picky.

     

    Of course we *did* have receipts for *everthing*! But making copies of it all, which they demanded, was a real pain. I think they wanted to cow us. Wrong tactic, wrong target.

     

    I can't say if your IRS office might be in the same boat but I did want to pass it on in case it's useful.

     

    Best of fortune on that score. The shoulder and arm we *know* will come along so for that I just wish you little pain and lots of patients (sic)! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jun 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The IRS has audited me three times in 17 years on three different levels and I have never paid them a dime in penalties and they refunded me twice. I pay all of my taxes and never get cute with them. My accountant has done a great job with them and the IRS has been respectful towards me. No secret to all of it. My accountant takes the State's share before I could ever see it and he is a very honest guy.
    My only complaint was when two agents came in my offices and put their feet on my secretary's desk while I was on an appointment.
    They do try to intimidate that way. But I am use to much worse than that and made a joke about it.
    I can't name anyone out of respect. But, the agent had the first name of the Friday the 13th guy with the hockey mask and the last name of the nightmare on elm street character. Talk about the perfect name for an IRS agent.
    What all of us found odd (including the agent) is nothing about my business or accounting or payments should put me in a risk category. Just lucky I guess.

     

    Best wishes on the elbow. Good to hear from ya mate.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    volume lighter than yesterdays but heavier than normal...
    GWMGF
    Last
    0.5915
    Change
    -0.0102
    Bid
    0.5915
    Ask
    0.6119
    High
    0.6323
    Low
    0.5915
    Volume
    903,818
    Time (ET)
    3:59:30 PM
    17 Jun 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8575) | Send Message
     
    Might be of interest. From mineweb on rare earths.

     

    www.mineweb.com/minewe...

     

    Excess rare earths in 5 years according to china

     

    www.mineweb.com/minewe...
    17 Jun 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, that's the little memo that is behind a lot of the chaos over the past few days.
    17 Jun 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those invested in Tasman or considering an investment, look at their recent drill results for Kora Narr here: www.tasmanmetals.com/s...

     

    For EVERYONE, though, go there and hit the new fly through video of their project. Cool. I found it fun.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    Agreed, very nice video showing Tasman's main resource. Even though the TREO percentage is low or dilute. I still think Tasman with its high HREOs, good infrastructure and biggest rare earth mine in Europe will give it a chance for success.

     

    Lets hope things turn around in the rare earth sector. I don't think you could find a better sector that has such a strong dynamic for success.
    Hopefully, I'm not deluding myself.
    18 Jun 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jimp,
    I agree with you about the rare earth sector. I can't see how it can be more than a correction without new supply, demand destruction, or falling prices. I certainly will not be taking any money from my stocks. I mean at this point we know the prices are going up and the nations and OEM's are in desperate need. And the trade publications on the recent concentrators prove this even as we have seen a slow down in GDP over the last six weeks.
    As for Tasman. I think it is near worthless. It's xenotime, but so are several much better projects. And there are al lot of metals and equipment where Europe does not have an independent source. The low TREO, capital costs, and narrow scope of elements in the mine's suite to dig up is way too much for any prices to overcome. I think no one in Europe has the funds or interest to gamble on such a bet where the odds are so stacked against them. Tasman will remain a website and an office and look to mine the street for suckers IMO. The public relations on a limited budget is not bad, but without any hardware I'm inclined to think they don't really think they will produce anything.
    18 Jun 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Eamon Keane
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    There's an infinitely slicker fly-through of ucore's property here: ucore.com/media
    20 Jun 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    AMEX volume on QRM is beginning to match or exceed TSX volume. Finally, hopefully, that "awareness" will begin to manifest in some support.

     

    LYC should be fine, both MCP and LYC are going to be able to capture a lot of FOB pricing.

     

    For all juniors, we should be rooting these companies on to succeed.
    17 Jun 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    prescient11,
    Even considering my earlier comments on QRM, the stock is way oversold IMO. We can disagree about 2015, but QRM will bounce. Several stories I find actually silly IMO are outperforming the better stocks now. But the bigger point is that there is no rhyme or reason or differentiation in the sell down. To me that's a sign the traders are getting carried away in the space. In fact, there is an argument that the more fund owned stocks are getting hit the hardest. This would suggest a bigger rebound in these stocks when things improve.
    I also agree that with competition so far away, demand destruction might be the bigger concern. In such a case, rooting for everyone makes sense. But as investors we need to be watch and accept that only a few will make it to production. Good luck to all.
    17 Jun 2011, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Technology always marches on.Doubt manufacturers will put up with a situation of putting heavier steel in a car because of RE scarcity,or abandon green tech either.Every political,economic,and enviormental fiber of modern society impels us to become more efficient,or be left by the wayside of history.In some form or another Lynas,Molycorp and Great Western will produce due to the relative richness of product.As for the rest,Alkane,because they aren't a pure play,will make concentrate.After that,probably one or two Canadian projects,and maybe Arafura,since the Chinese will probably take their product.After that,its a crap shoot,and craps is a fun game too!
    18 Jun 2011, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    Good point.
    I lived in s.Cal twice in my life...OC and Riverside County..now live in az lots o cow chips...mostly dry....ever once in while me stops and has ta tro a chip in the riber...those revers and the chip..who knows....some day..the china men will see value in those chips
    18 Jun 2011, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Good piece on supply/demand from resourceinvestingnews.com
    18 Jun 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF, LYSDY):

     

    'For anti-Lynas residents, the time for talking is over'

     

    "With the panel due to submit its recommendations to the government at the end of the month, Tan said that Save Malaysia would instead focus on activating local residents to the cause and adding signatures to a petition that PKR vice president Fuziah says is already touching 52,000 names.
    "A straw poll by The Malaysian Insider found 12 of 13 Kuantan residents wanted the plant scrapped with over two-thirds saying they will not vote for BN if it decided to approve the project."

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    'BN MPs to back anti-Lynas campaign, say sources'

     

    "'There is also concern that should this thing backfire, BN would be affected, and the repercussions may be too deep,' the source said"

     

    This is the hairy one, the one where the facts about the plant become irrelevant in light of politics. If BN members do indeed start to shift, look out (note, however, that the article also indicates that they have not yet shifted, as indicated by their lack of participation in a recent Parliamentary briefing).

     

    www.themalaysianinside.../

     

    BN faces Kuantan voter backlash over rare earth plans

     

    www.themalaysianinside...

     

    ****
    Gentlemen, I've seen a good bit of talking down of the worries out there, but I can't see how the greatest likelihood is not a delay, given the sources I've cited before. (If someone wants to shoot those down for me, please do.)
    And while I still think that eventually approval is the more likely outcome, this BN story is a real worry - keep an eye on it.
    Disclosure: I sold a large chunk of my position in Lynas back when I first found the news of the IEAE suggesting further reports would be needed; and sold more early this week when I saw that the AELB said a new RIA was needed. (No point in researching if you're not going to act.) Of course, I'm still planning on getting back in at some point unless things change further.
    18 Jun 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    As you say, the risk is very real. Thanks for the links.

     

    I'm beginning to think the best solution, long-term, might be for Malaysia to cover Lynas's expenditures - assuming folks see that as fair - and Lynas can begin looking for alternate suitable locations. It's certainly not the *desirable* solution, but it might be more expeditious in realizing the long-term value the company should achieve.

     

    I presume that some portion of the equipment that might be in place can be transported and used at another location. Loss, hopefully reimbursed, would be plant foundation related and manpower costs. What's left in place might serve another industry in the future and so has some residual value to Malaysia.

     

    Of course this thought goes counter to natural tendency to fight for what one believes is right. But Lynas is a business and the bias will be less to fight and more to "how can we get on with realizing our potential most effectively". If there are any decent alternatives on the horizon ...

     

    I think a decision point would be reached around the time when the actual number of signatures on the petitions is determined, after this latest drive to "take it to the people" is well under way. The political winds ought to be quite apparent then and Lynas can assess the situation with more information available to them.

     

    I'm sure the pols will be doing the same and offering some discreet feedback to Lynas so that everyone comes out if it in the best possible light.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL, I give that a low probability of occuring, and there are some reasons for that:

     

    1. Malaysia is not a large, rich country. Writing off an anticipated boost to the NATIONAL economy of this size (the LAMP is that important to Malaysia, its failure will have an effect on their economy measurable in full decimal points) is something they simply cannot afford.

     

    2. International trade will be affected. News of this fiasco will hurt their business with important trading partners. Unlike the immediate effects of the crash on their economy, these will be long lasting downgrades measurable in decades.

     

    3. Their national Reputation will be seriously damaged. Businesses considering projects in Malaysia will think twice. This will not just be a loss of one project, but the loss of many. Precendents like this, once set, typecast the entire country as unfriendly to investment, untrustworthy, and would make them a virtual parhia.

     

    4. Domestic politics, which are certainly at work here, could reach a dramatic tipping point. The current powers that be would not just lose a battle, they may well lose power completely (which is my suspected "real" basis for the whole affair). If it has not already reached that point, it WILL if the extreme event of a LAMP failure to start occurs.

     

    5. Since the entire affair has been placed in the hands of the IAEA, if THIS example of a project cannot pass their muster, then the situation for the entire planet is placed in jeopardy. The proper role of the IAEA will have been usurped, with profound implications relating to minor projects like negotiating with the Iranians...

     

    I just cannot see this happening. Its too surreal.
    18 Jun 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    All valid points. And you are better informed than I on such things. But what effect is seen if the people, by a large majority, will be removing the current administration that is pro-Malaysian economic growth?

     

    Do the protesters care *that* much about the economic growth? From what has been reported, I think no. *If* they can sway a large majority of the people, that indicates those folks are now in the same camp as the protestors and are less concerned with economic growth - whether well-informed or ignorant makes no difference.

     

    So, if the people are convinced that the economic growth is less (or even "not that") important, what does that do to the considerations you just listed?

     

    Are their pols less concerned about job security than ours? Is there some other reason we can expect them to "defy" the will of a large part of the population? The number of protestors is, admittedly, small. But we know how "the vocal minority" can have a disproportionate effect. Especially when facts are not an issue for them, as has been demonstrated.

     

    *If* I'm Lynas, I'm pondering such things.

     

    Anyway, you can see my wondering on this front. What is desirable by Malaysians *might* be changed through activist politics.

     

    Last thought: not everyone involved is "rational". Consequences on the other side of the risk/reward question may not factor into their deliberations at all. If they can spread this "disease" to the general populace, ...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Malays will, just as with us, have to cope with the consequences of their own elections. If they put in a "zero tolerance" regime, they will reap what they sow.

     

    I agree, these protestors care far less about economic consequences than about political power. This is a political means to a political end, not a legitimate topic in and of itself.

     

    HTL, I do not believe that this protest will ever gain the support of the majority of the Malaysian voters - or even a large minority. However, this lack will not necessarily mean their failure... This would not be the first time that a tiny minority struck a fracture line in a much larger power structure and brought down the entire nation into ruin. I do not THINK this will happen, but I will not say that it cannot.

     

    I agree, rationality is not applicable to this situation. Thinking back over my earlier commentary on this topic, I remember using terms like "surreal", "bizarre", "fringe lunatics", etc.

     

    "Rational" would be a shocking change.
    18 Jun 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OK Laff,
    Let me take these one at a time.
    For anti-Lynas residents, the time for talking is over
    Fuziah's signatures are pure BS. She started in March at a meeting where a thousand people attended. Rumors were already claiming her group encouraged people to sign "4 or 5 times if they liked". Right after the meeting she claimed she had 10,000 signatures already. Similar on line petitions have produces small fractions by comparison.
    Our own OMG started Facts About Lynas on Facebook. He made me a moderator. I can tell you he already has 5000 people in about ten days and 90% are Malaysians. You will note the same article says: Save Malaysia pulled out of a meeting with it's panel claiming security concerns. Pushing and shouting was reported the day of the meeting but no violence was ever reported. The truth is Fruziah was embarrassed by the IAEA support and on the heals of the failed protest at the Aussie embassy. She has made this pivot because she DOES NOT have the numbers for a protest.
    The straw poll should be 13 out of 13 IMO. No facts were released on the methodology of the poll for good reason. The Malaysian Insider has only posted the strongest and most inflammatory articles on the issue. So if you read and you live in Kuantan, and you answer their poll, what do you expect? No one I have spoken to in Malaysia believes BN will lose the Prime Minister's home providence. Most people over there say it is a small issue and Abdul Razak, Prime Minister of Malaysia has been an easy winner for years and will min again. The true politics of Malaysia often center on Malay versus Chinese views. Abdul Razak is a strong majority Malay party leader.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    BN MPs to back anti-Lynas campaign, say sources
    Again, same paper. See Malaysian Insider comments already stated. There are a lot of Malaysian newspapers in English. Here is a list:
    www.onlinenewspapers.c...
    Certainly others have a green slant to them. But I would rank the Malaysian Insider as the most active and Anti-Lynas.
    Laff,
    Here I think you have misstated and overstated the article in your summary. No BN member has joined Fuziah's fantacy to date. The paper claims an unnamed BN source is trying to get BN MP's to support Fuziah. I have seen no evidence of this starting and the fact that there is no one named tells you a lot about the political movement. BN clearly wants the project to go forward. The Prime Minister has been pushing a strong pro-business agenda and this appears form my information to be the BN view.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Laff,
    No to belabor the point. But again a Malaysian Insider article. No surprise. Try looking over these other papers and see if the political agendas don't separate the publications. Most important look for names and hard facts like protest numbers to enhance the research.
    BorneoPost Online(Sarawak) [In English]
    Eastern Times (Sarawak, Sabah) [In English]
    Harian Metro (Kuala Lumpur) [In English]
    International Herald Tribune [In English]
    Klik4Malaysia [In English]
    Malay Mail [In English]
    Malaysian Insider [In English]
    Malaysian Today [In English]
    Maleisië Nieuws [In Dutch & English]
    My Sarawak (Sarawak) [In English]
    New Straits Times [In English]
    Sarawak Tribune [In English]
    The Star (Kuala Lumpur) [In English]
    The Sun Daily [In English]
    Now:
    BN faces Kuantan voter backlash over rare earth plans-
    Again a poll claim with no methodology and no named BN political support for the Anti-Lynas movement. Really just wishful thinking and manipulative talking points hoping to start a groundswell I cannot confirm elsewhere. Note also, no additional protests occurring since the hearing and no increasing numbers of people at protests. It is true the Prime Minister said the thing to do now is wait and let the independent IAEA decide. But that comment was last week and nothing happened prior to that either. And if this was an out cry by the people, where are the crying people?
    Bottom line Laff is I think you are getting sucked in by a weak web paper with no facts or named sources. I have dealt with a lot of this and OMG is way into this. Both of us see NO WAY THERE IS NOT A TIMELY APPROVAL FOR LYNAS.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Na HTL,
    I feel comfortable saying "no risk".
    18 Jun 2011, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This is a good macro assessment. I think the micro case is even more pro-Lynas. The Save Malaysia guys know it will be IAEA approval. They have already resorted to challenging the credibility and objectivity of the IAEA on facebook. They literally don't see the facts in their favor and seek emotion as a game plan. Even the emotion created in the press, has failed to take root on the ground.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just as a general (but personal) opinion, I trust OMG and Chi a LOT more than this digital fishwrapper Malaysiansider. Anyday.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    That's good to hear! I wish I'd had that list of papers before I started tracking the three I've been tracking. I'm afraid Laff got caught following my poor lead.

     

    Anyway, another topic. I've tried to visit the facebook page but it wants me to sign in. I don't have a facebook account but I was able to visit ... "the wall?" on your original site. Is there a link that will allow me to do the same with the current one?

     

    I do have a link to a pro-Lynas facebook page that I can visit - several months back and I can see it. I presumed it was a Lynas sponsored page.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, I'll make it official: Please post the links to the Lynas work you and OMG are doing.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    www.facebook.com/#!/ho...
    19 Jun 2011, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Still wants me to login.

     

    Is there no "public" access, just for viewing, that doesn't need a login?

     

    Tried google, no help AFAICT.

     

    When you had you the "Crown Affair" page I could see everthing without a login. Maybe facebook changed their policy? ... Nope. I can still see your Crown pages. I can also see lynasmalaysia (looks like an "official" Lynas site) without a login request.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jun 2011, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk:

     

    I'm aware that the Malaysian Insider is not gospel-truth, but I also think it would be dangerous to simply ignore their reports. Their interest in the matter, negative though it may be, means that they do research and report facts (lol, *sometimes*) that other papers don't. One just has to read critically, looking to separate fact from speculation.

     

    What do you make of the AELB director saying recently that a new RIA would be needed?
    www.themalaysianinside...
    There are, of course, ways this could not cause a delay, either if the new RIA is not needed prior to start-up or if it could be put together very quickly. The article says that it will be needed prior to operations, and, of course, we can question the MI on that, but it surely has to be put on the board of reasonable possibilities.

     

    What do you make of the AELB saying they will not grant the licence until there is a definite waste disposal plan in place?
    Again, maybe no delay here: maybe Lynas immediately comes out with one, but I'm also not going to simply assume that this is the case.
    www.bernama.com.my/ber...
    19 Jun 2011, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    I don't see how I misstated and overstated the article since I explicitly said: "If BN members do indeed start to shift, look out (note, however, that the article also indicates that they have not yet shifted, as indicated by their lack of participation in a recent Parliamentary briefing)."
    19 Jun 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Laff,
    The Malay "Pravda" as I consider it requires confirmation by another source to be considered. It has earned that reputation in my mind after reading it's position on Lynas for three months.
    Much of the new RIA talk has been going on for months now. Lynas and higher ranking officials says it will not cause delays others claim the paperwork under Malaysian law will cause a delay. The licensing process is not and never was designed to end with an IAEA approval. The AELB process has licensing that cannot be completed till commissioning; and then full production. That is just how operations for a big industrial plant work. So licensing and full production have always been two different things (though of course Malaysia Insider has yet to explain that).
    And before we assume Malaysia is a big "Green Party" enclave, consider this fact from OMG: the low radiation coming from thorium is much less then radioactive Amang used by the tin industry. The radioactivity of Amang is 50 times higher then thorium. The Malaysia Smelting Corporation has just announced to the market that they plan to purchase another 4 tin mines IN MALAYS...IA and these tin mines USES a MUCH LARGER quantity of radioactive chemicals and much more toxic then thorium.

     

    Read more: 'Lynas must submit waste mgnt strategy' www.btimes.com.my/arti...
    The AELB, an agency under the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, said the outcome from the expert panel appointed by the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to be out on June 30. "Lynas claims they are very confident that it has met all requirements. They are in the midst of preparing the long-term waste management strategies," he said after delivering a talk on awareness and understanding various issues and
    technical aspects of the plant here today.
    Abdul Aziz said six licenses known as "multi-stage licensing" have to be approved for Lynas to be in full operations, of which, the first two licenses for citing and construction have been granted.
    The AELB has been directed to hold back any consideration for the
    pre-operations license to Lynas until findings of the expert panel is made known.
    Asked what would be the possible risk in the worse case scenario if the plant operated, Abdul Aziz said that in terms of radiology, there was none, except for chemical scenarios. -- Bernama

     

    By the way Bernama appears to me to be like a newswire type service. They tend to provide information quick with minimal commentary on either side.
    19 Jun 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    I linked to that same Bernama article in my reply, just on a different page. I know Aziz said Lynas is "preparing the long-term waste management strategy" - but that is what they have been doing all along. If I had held my breath the first time I heard that....

     

    Anyways, I'm aware of the tin industry issues, I joined OMG's and your Lynas site a little ways back; and it has helpful info.

     

    Well, we disagree in our assessment, so be it. At any rate, since I've sold my large chunk, it's down about 20% (for whatever reasons), so I've no regrets yet.
    19 Jun 2011, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    As someone who just added to his Lynas position at $1.90, I may have a biased view. I'm thinking (or hoping) that the Malaysian gov't and Lynas are negotiating some way for both sides to save face over the current situation.

     

    Possible positive solutions to include: 1) a conditional operating permit with ongoing site monitoring for excessive radiation emissions (Lynas better hope there is not an unplanned burp in the startup or an employee error); 2) a large performance bond (i.e., "hundreds of millions" of RM) to guarantee funds for cleanup and decontamination in the case of decommission or revoking of operating permit; and 3) Lynas will be given a deadline to develop an alternative plan to either remove or recycle ongoing storage waste. If Malaysia allows LAMP to operate with more stringent conditions, then they shift the responsibility for any future failure back onto Lynas.

     

    Malaysia has already announced earlier that their radiation emission standards are higher than U.S and Australia, so these measures will show the Malaysia people that they won't allow Lynas to just run roughshod over their country. Malaysia has the highest standards and they just raised them some more. Just as long as the IAEA doesn't issue some damning or condemning report about LAMP, which I don't expect.While radiation concerns is an emotional issue for everyone, in one of the recent interviews IAEA Director Abdul Aziz was asked about possible risks in the worst case scenario in case the plant operated, he said that in terms of radiation there was none only chemical scenarios. If this opinion is representative of the gov't, then I think it is important. Malaysia has refineries and they know how to manage risks associated with them.

     

    I'd also be curious to see where the 52,000 petition signatures are coming from. Since Malaysia has 13 states and a few federal territories, if the protest is purely a local issue in Pahang, then the gov't might not feel as much pressure as if it is a national protest of sorts.
    18 Jun 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    "Malaysia has refineries and they know how to manage risks associated with them"

     

    That's one of the things that puzzles my about the protestors' position. One of the reasons for Lynas selecting Malaysia was because of the strong infrastructure and experience available in the chemical industries.

     

    If they have a good safety record in an area known to be fraught with risks, why should they feel that there is no way to achieve similar results, which have apparently been acceptable to Malaysians overall for a long time, with the LAMP?

     

    Sure, that may entail additional cost for all the needed steps, but there ought to be a definable strategy that achieves levels of safety with which they have been comfortable in the past.

     

    My guess, as mentioned earlier, is that rationality is not part of the protestor equation.

     

    The question is not "how can we resolve the concerns", but rather "how can we accomplish our goals", which are not really oriented to assuring themselves of a safe facility that provides economic benefit to the region.

     

    That may define an intractable problem: totally different goals makes joint effort towards agreement difficult.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11495) | Send Message
     
    Sad to say but the Malaysian government isn't the most upstanding based upon unbiased fact. Any way you look at it it is bad for Lynas and will cost them. That being said most of the news is already probably priced in. That is the dangers of mining in 3rd world countries. Even mining in Mexico involves dangers like political instability and violence.
    18 Jun 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    If they were mining it might be an easier problem since the product might get shipped elsewhere for processing. So the concentration, handling, storage and disposition of hazardous materials would occur "elsewhere".

     

    The problem in this case is that raw materials will be brought to Malaysia and refined there causing all the hazardous issues to migrate to Malaysia. So we get NIMBY in Malaysia.

     

    But you are right, generally, regardless of mining or other business endeavors I think.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Moon,
    I like you man. But you are just wrong here. I think Lynas is fine here. But your comment is part of the reason why I think Lynas sold off last week. A lot of good traders are thinking like Moon. But I am getting a very different picture over there. The traders hold the shares and have beat up the stock, but if the approval occurs, as I know it will, then the company is in great shape. Look I don't want to pump too much. I've given the list of newspapers and suggested some points for critical analysis. If you read the other papers and find polls with a methodology, big protests with reliable head counts (and not people running out of free roses), or named BN politicians with quotes then I would put it on the mental scale. But let's try to be concrete about this.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    GWMG is working on a 43-101 compliance report for Steenskampskral. Does anyone know how long these generally take?
    18 Jun 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good question. I have seen it as a topic on some juniors for quite a while, but I don't know how much of that was them struggling to get their ducks in a row.

     

    I believe that the data at Steen may be a problem. All they have is old, historic samples from when it was a thorium mine, and that program was certainly not 43-101 compliant, or even modern or focused upon REE deposits.

     

    I am less concerned about the 43-101 compliance than that they do the work to BECOME compliant, which hopefully will include a thorough review of their resource and a search for the true extent and composition of the REEs present.

     

    Most juniors do sampling and surveys over a long period of time, usually years, but the truth is that I have not seen GWM mention an anticipated time when they will be able to meet 43-101 compliance rules. Engdahl in the last few interviews has mentioned it as one of their priorities, but no details.
    18 Jun 2011, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): "These approvals enable GWMG to immediately commence the refurbishment of the former-producing mine site and to undertake an exploration project at site. Additionally, the approvals enable GWMG to develop a mineral resource estimate that is compliant with disclosure requirements as defined by the Canadian Securities Administrators National Instrument 43-101, utilizing available historic data."

     

    IIUC, they don't have to drill to get 43-101 for existing resources. Their drilling program is to expand resources.

     

    With SSK planned production now in Q1 '13, the 43-101 apparently is just review of paperwork and filling out new forms?

     

    IIRC, the drills are now on-site and working on delineating a (hopefully) expand resource which will be 43-101 compliant. That should take some time as there's so many steps involved and so many potential holes to be drilled.

     

    www.mining-reporter.co...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Please consider what MCP's price is doing.

     

    It is the "Darling" in this realm. It goes down, the others surely will also.

     

    Meanwhile, I'm starting to watch AVL again as well as TGB. Remember that TGB has a Niobium property ( I think I spelled it correctly)
    18 Jun 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, yep, "property" is properly spelled, HTL.

     

    As for the niobium...

     

    TGB is the posterchild for the new anti-mining wing of the Canadian political scene. They got a bad beatdown last time, but I'm sure pulling for them in Round 2...

     

    I'm adding them back into my tracking. Its a solid company with some very interesting projects.

     

    And yes, we are all inveseting in the shadow of MCP.
    18 Jun 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Freya's a lot prettier than I am, how could you confuse the two of us?! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ulp. I'll never live this down, HTL.

     

    Sorry Lady Dragon. Senility is setting in on me.
    18 Jun 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Also, copper may be out of favor now, but that will change. Here's something else related to Taseko seekingalpha.com/artic...
    19 Jun 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HT...Its my understanding the mineshaft refurbishment starts this week.....
    18 Jun 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Who is Lady Dragon? Is she the Mistress overseeing the GWMG masochists?
    18 Jun 2011, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Freya is someone who is an Original 'Gade and a Lady to be respected, should she choose to grace us with her presence.

     

    She's also very smart and savvy.
    18 Jun 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    ahh..the Goddess of love and beauty
    18 Jun 2011, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » An education in the classics never goes to waste...
    18 Jun 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Suggest you wiki Freya, much more warlike you will find:)
    18 Jun 2011, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Just a couple TA things.

     

    Recall I suggested we might be getting to a turn but I didn't think it would move up Friday.

     

    But certain indications offer the possibility for this coming week.

     

    1 - Higher low, $0.588 that bounced up from Thursday's low of $0.574 which was below the potential support from the low of 1/18/11 of $0.5821. Close above that old support.
    2 - Open, close and high low make a candlestick called a "spinning top" which is the same as a "doji" in that what it tells us is there is indecision.
    3 - Price breaks either way about 50% of the time.
    4 - The three days down had volumes that rose, peaked and dropped back down - should indicate that we are nearing the end of the current trend; but it's still a bit too high to say the turn is nigh.
    5 - Folks interested in GWM should be aware that a JV announcement is likely in ... 3-7 weeks? If they are strong longs, they should begin adding at these levels.
    6 - Weak longs should be about exhausted by now, although there may be some that haven't capitulated yet; volume strongly suggests most are gone by now.
    7. Currently below the rising (~$0.002/day) 200 day SMA, ~$0.64.
    8. Several oversold indicators ATM.

     

    Considering all this, I would look to see near-term price movement to start heading towards $0.64 or so as an early step. Consolidation around that level, with a slight upward bias, might be seen if folks are awaiting price break above the 200 day SMA. There's a falling resistance from this recent down leg that is coming into play around that price level. So I would expect a pause in that area as possible indecision continues.

     

    As usual, even my experimental chart settings are not indicating bullish moves yet, although the short-term Bollingers suggest a move up toward the mid-point is likely.

     

    If there is one last-gasp move down, it *ought* to bottom out at ~$0.53 or so.

     

    If the Greek issues are settled for a while now, as indicated by these headlines

     

    www.telegraph.co.uk/ne.../

     

    any selling pressure from that may dissipate and encourage risk-on again. Might help REE stocks recover.

     

    We know my record has been spotty, so discount as appropriate.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    GWM: I don't follow this stock but I noticed a lot of comments wondering about the recent downturn. My guess it is market reaction, right or wrong, to news articles about some South African politiians calling for nationalization of the country's mines. May never happen, but it reinforces some investors' concerns about country risk.
    18 Jun 2011, 11:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    El, got a link? I try to stay on top of things by bookmarking all related I come across.

     

    I've not done a Google for it - time in short supply.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jun 2011, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Here is an article regarding a Youth Leader calling for the nationalization of SA mines and land:

     

    articles.latimes.com/2...

     

    Doesn't seem any where near imminent (or at all) but this young guy bears watching.
    19 Jun 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    ps. that would make GW's Hoidas Lake property all that more important?
    19 Jun 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Thx!

     

    The part about "not imminent" does little to soothe the worries I guess.

     

    I think this bears watching as a lot of capital and future potential progress relies on the SSK mine and JV-processing plant.

     

    Let's hope this doesn't get overblown and spook the shareholders and that the confiscatory policy rhetoric dies in its infancy.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There has been SOMEBODY in South Afrika talking nationalization since Nelson Mandella was still in a jail cell. Constantly. When this talk has legislation attached to it, likely to pass, THEN is the time to bail.

     

    Most folks don't even know the frightening legislative proposals made right here in the United States, every year... Some of them little different from this topic.

     

    It does indeed bear watching, but its almost impossible to invest anywhere where this talk does not surface. That includes the US, Canada, Australia, you name it. Dig a little, and you find the same agitprop.

     

    I won't let these fears drive me out of a good investment, else I would just become a goldbug hiding in a bunker somewhere.

     

    Just as with the Malay situation, or investments in Canada before the recent elections (look over some of THOSE positions by candidates on the left), its wise to be aware of this, but also to judge it accurately. Frankly, I found the dangers in Canadian investments much more likely than this faint chant from a marxist roaming the wilds of South Africa.
    20 Jun 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Maya, seems to me my sale of QW above .90 is getting better and better... as I wait for $7.
    18 Jun 2011, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Freya: QW? Never have owned it.

     

    If you're speaking of Great Western, I sold out half of my position for a little over 100% gain. House money now. But Great Western is starting to look awfully cheap.
    18 Jun 2011, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    I know this is not an REE related article. But having read this thread for months now, I know a lot of you have interests in both silver and gold miners, coins of either metal, or the bullion itself.

     

    Thanks to the Dodd-Frank Act, beginning July 15, all silver and coin OTC transactions will be tracked. Forex has decided to shut down their US precious metal operations:

     

    www.economicpolicyjour...

     

    Not good for coin collectors like me.
    18 Jun 2011, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • graymac
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    update on FTE,
    If my sources are correct they will release their Maiden Jorc on A238
    this week, its worth noting this is the first time they will have some indicated levels, On Fridays close on LSE they were up 5.45% with a volume of 3.2M which is way above the daily average of 1.3M.
    Whether this will be reflected on FTE.AX I don't know & in the current market its hard to work out, what effect even good news can have on the Shareprice, but its worth noting that FTE is very popular in th UK, as only AIM stocks which are dual listed are Isa Enabled, which means any gains on these stocks are tax free, this makes them very attractive to PI's in the UK. I know Chihawk has made so very valid points about there long term issues as regards the REE's, but at their current SP there is a chance of some good short term gains, A lot of Uranium miners have been & still are being heavily shorted. FTE has only 0.21% stock on loan.
    good luck & always DYOR.
    19 Jun 2011, 07:32 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Recall that on 6/11 I mentioned some stocks that might get added to one of the Russell indexes.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    One of the updates points is 6/17. As of this A.M, 6/19, here's those same indexes with the status for the same stocks I mentioned. I've also noted any changes that caught my eye that might be of interest.

     

    Russell Global Index preliminary reconstitution list
    still being considered for inclusion (ANLKY), (ARAFF), (AVL), (GWMGF), (QRM)
    added to under consideration: (HREEF), (TASXF), (URG), (URZ), (URRE)
    others I noticed mentioned in concentrators(?): (GPL)

     

    Russell 3000 Index preliminary reconstitution list
    still being considered for inclusion: (URG), (URZ), (URRE)
    removed from consideration for addition: (HREEF) being considered for Russell Global Index

     

    Russell Microcap Index preliminary reconstitution list
    still being considered for addition: (URG), (URRE)

     

    www.russell.com/Indexe...

     

    It's important to note these are not final actions. See the schedule here.

     

    www.russell.com/indexe...

     

    HardToLove
    19 Jun 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Good info HT!
    19 Jun 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Interesting update for Arafura. This would be an early step on a long road to creating a vertically integrated REE company. After they complete the EIS to the satisfaction of the authorities, they would have to get permitted for the various mining and processing steps, plus special permitting for the uranium production.

     

    This is a lengthy process. Normal (ie, not involving radioactive materials) mine permits in Australia take about 2 years (or more than 5 times quicker than in the US and Canada, for those betting on REE juniors in those balliwicks). Even so, I would expect Arafura's complex project to take a little more time, say 2-3 years, for full permits. This would probably put them in the hunt by 2015.
    19 Jun 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2207) | Send Message
     
    The time factor sounds about right, TB, especially since it is complicated by the need for a desalination plant. This will be an interesting story to watch. I have to wonder how much assistance Arafura will receive from the government for building the complex at Whyalla and how much this project is tied to other infrastructure projects in the region.
    www.premier.sa.gov.au/...
    www.desalination.biz/s...
    19 Jun 2011, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » my.news.yahoo.com/news...

     

    A fairly lenghty announcement from the Malay Industrial Ministry about LAMP.

     

    Note its dated the 19th, and indicates a 10 day period until they expect to hear from the IAEA panel of experts.

     

    10 more days....

     

    Puts us right up against the end of the month and the end of QE, and all sorts of crazy market moves.

     

    Never a dull moment...
    19 Jun 2011, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF, LYSDY):

     

    Protestors claiming 2,000 showed up for their anti-Lynas Father's Day event (note that this figure, even if true, does include a lot of children):

     

    www.malaysiakini.com/n...

     

    savemalaysia-stoplynas...
    19 Jun 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Laff,
    The photos look better than the previous protests, but less than 2000 people IMO. I'll watch the news cycle on it to better understand it.
    19 Jun 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Following Laff's link (catchy!), and seraching for the full story for free (cheapskate here), I found this. Read the story below the list of links about "Nuclear Physicist: M'sia Will Gain Nothing But Radioactive Waste from Lynas".

     

    Predomitaely a waste of bits, but "Nuclear Physicist" uttering such statements will probably add (unwarranted) weight to the negative side of the discussion.

     

    groups.yahoo.com/group...

     

    Here's a convenient site.

     

    simonthongwh.wordpress.../

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Somebody check his credentials... and his meds.

     

    Reminds me of the guys in England who ginned up anthro-warmism, created a neat little academic cartel to "own" the planet's climate, and then published all sorts of outlandish claptrap as "expert authorities".

     

    Got caught with their sticky fingers in the cookie jar, too.

     

    Of course, we should also note just how much damage these cretins can cause.
    20 Jun 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    pmem.ws/files/users/a/...

     

    GWMG,MTN Pass and Mt Weld...tonnage Production and bottom link is p/e and pps Forecast ;))

     

    pmem.ws/files/users/a/...
    19 Jun 2011, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF, LYSDY):

     

    "Fuziah: Barisan MPs in ‘quiet fight’ against Gebeng plant"

     

    thestar.com.my/news/st...

     

    For whatever it's worth, given the source (Fuziah)....
    19 Jun 2011, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    A few updates from Lynas this morning...
    www.aspectfinancial.co...

     

    and
    www.aspectfinancial.co...

     

    Plus a reprint of the comments from the Minister of International Trade...

     

    www.aspectfinancial.co...

     

    Share price has risen in early trading on ASX. Hopefully, we've found the bottom for now.
    19 Jun 2011, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF, LYSDY):

     

    Bump up for Mt. Weld basket price: US$203.69.
    19 Jun 2011, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas Advanced Materials Plant Update
    www.lynascorp.com/cont...

     

    Mount Weld Concentration Plant Commissioning (first production) Update
    www.lynascorp.com/cont...

     

    Article - Minister of International Trade and Industry
    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...

     

    Good updates and official comments by the government's minister. Nice to hear something direct rather than through newspaper commentary.
    19 Jun 2011, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Sorry Freo.
    Didn't realize you posted these with aspectfinancial link. But yes I agree they are good updates. Should cause some shorts to cover IMO. The real move should be at month's end. I think Malaysia's emphasis on maintaining the review timeline is a good sign. I'm sure the Stop Lynas group is pushing for delays to buy time. The minister's comments suggest that won't happen.
    19 Jun 2011, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.rareearthsandstrat...

     

    Conference starts tomorrow. Jack Lifton gives a speech as well as Billingsly from (GWMGF)

     

    I can't find anywhere on the conference site that Lynas is represented.
    20 Jun 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Factions are everywhere. This is a group which might be unfriendly to Lynas. We'll see what they say, I suppose...
    20 Jun 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I don't see where Lynas will be there either. I guess they won't. But Jack may want to slip in a good word for his new buddies Rare Earth Metals Inc RAREF. Looks like a 10 month LOW today!
    20 Jun 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    they're out in defense of (MCP) this morning...

     

    JPM's NEW price is $105...from 87
    Piper Jaffrey upgrades to overweight from neutral $73 target maintained.
    20 Jun 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Honestly, where do they get off with that? They can't possibly believe that MCP is going to double in 12 mos. If they can't even find funding at this point, how can they possibly be in production in 12 mos.?
    20 Jun 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    And its up 7% so far on that upgrade... That's how its done... hot air!
    20 Jun 2011, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    wallstreetpit.com/7840...

     

    here is their thinking (?)
    20 Jun 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    Looks like JPM didn't get out yet. This is one time I'll put up with the hot air. Egg, all of the things you say are true. I don't even agree wth the analyst on Moly's production and pricing. But I think we all need a green day around here. Especially those of us in Lynas waiting on the IAEA or in GW waiting on the JV. This is a nice short squeeze IMO. And even though Moly bugs me, "rare earths are not rare" shorters are the worst. I say let them take a bunch.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I'm with ya buddy. I've been in LYSCF, ALKEF & QRM for some time and just grabbed a little piece of GWM today. I absolutely acknowledge the need to kick the shorties in the teeth. I just hate the BS manipulation. I really don't understand how they manage to get away with it. The banks are always squawking about the need to have the retail investor active in the market. Then when they get them in, they lead them by the nose and *poop* on them.
    20 Jun 2011, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    "No confidence in Lynas Safety Review"-Free Malaysia Today,I sure hope nobody reads those rags! Report available on australianrareearths.c... going to hit golf balls-aargh!
    20 Jun 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is good news for Lynas. ANYTHING these luddites would have confidence in would be horrific news for Lynas (and Malaysia too, of course).
    20 Jun 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    truncated link. Can you give it another shot?

     

    Thx,
    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    www.freemalaysiatoday..../
    20 Jun 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    We have a phrase down here in San Antonio "déjelos". It means "let 'em". They discredit themselves by challenging the IAEA decision before it comes out. Hard to say they are relying on facts when you dump on the fact finder before the release.
    I agree TB. These guys know they are toast and seem to have no compromise or plan B. Good news IMO.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Thk u!

     

    hardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I know I said I was all in but I panhandled for some change and bought 823 shares of (GWMGF) at the open for .597.

     

    I doubt it will dent my cost average but the price is too appealing.
    20 Jun 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I added more too, just a little, and I am buying more Lynas this morning as well.
    20 Jun 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    off to a decent start.... volume looks to be above av.

     

    GWMGF
    Last
    0.6229
    Change
    +0.0306
    Bid
    0.6127
    Ask
    0.6229
    High
    0.6229
    Low
    0.5821
    Volume
    277,570
    Time (ET)
    10:00:08 AM
    20 Jun 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF, LYSDY):

     

    FreoDoctor,

     

    You asked on a previous concentrator whether Lynas' radioactivity concentration in its waste would be 61 Bq/g or 61Bq/kg; and the discussion ended up suggesting it was the kg figure.
    I got around to checking, and the answer is 61 Bq/g.

     

    Source:
    (p. 38)
    docs.google.com/viewer...

     

    By the way, I was surprised to find that the RIA actually makes for interesting reading in some parts, esp. the exposure scenarios (still working through it, though).
    20 Jun 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that Lafferty. That is exactly the info I was looking for. I need to read this closer, but, on first glance think this all looks ok. You are right, the exposure scenarios make for interesting reading. I just checked with my brother-in-law who works in the nuclear regulatory industry and he assures me these exposure levels are quite low and reasonable. Not that I'd be signing up to be a canary in that coal mine if you know what I mean. IMO the trouble Lynas will face is how to deal with the need to store the residue for 10 years. My guess is they will either have to find another place to store it or at the very least give a more detailed plan of what they intend to do with it. I don't see this as a major hurdle, though.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Patting myself on the back ATM for my expectations.

     

    Kicking myself in the a$$ ATM for having no powder available.

     

    Net call: neutral to useless prognistications.

     

    But I'm happy to see volume that will exceed the 25 day average and price above the 200 day SMA *and* the falling resistance. *Close* above *both* would be gratifying and a positive going-forward indication. Volume of >=683K with a close of ~$0.65 would be just dandy!

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    HTl...excellent analysis and quite the follow through! I scrounged up 500 bucks but that was it.

     

    the vol on Schwab is very good :
    657,595
    Time (ET)
    11:28:03

     

    Let's see how it closes... fingers crossed.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): CORRECTION!

     

    After putting my face very close to the screen, struggling to make sure that trend line was on the proper pixels an a very hi-res screen, it likes like the >=$0.65 s/b >=$0.66. With a negative slop of $0.006, tomorrow we could call it $0.65.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    It seems that the probability of a stock pop is an inverse function of the amount of dry powder in your account. The RE sector appears to be following the JPM supply/ demand logic...
    20 Jun 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    OK. So you all get rich this time, who's going to "go dry" next cycle so I can get rich? ;-))

     

    Another trading tidbit to add to my repetoire! If I want to get rich, I just need to run out of $$ :-))

     

    I shoulda bought/built a second house in 2006 or so - I'd be rish (HIC!) already! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    The price bump was out there all last week,maybe the big boys didn't see it until they came into work this morning.Or,as I stated previously,the Greek situation had everyones attention.Seems incredible those greedy bastognies would miss it.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Too busy buying the (MCP) pump by JPM et al?

     

    I wonder just how long those folks are on MCP atm. Alternately, with 20% short reported ... Beats (CPST) so price action ought to easily put CPST volatility to shame going forward.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    I have to wait for GW to drop below .26 to lower my average. I don't think thats going to happen.

     

    Besides, I believe AVL is better at this point.

     

    Mind, I'm not advocating anything in this sector currently. Just bandying ideas around.

     

    Does anyone remember the name of the company that invests in and stores physical REEs?
    20 Jun 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Dacha (DCHAF)?

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, Dacha. Freya, when looking over their valuations (particularly as they and their fans publish values based upon world REE metal prices) its important to remember that their most recent sales (and the location of their stockpile) is in China, and subject to the same export restrictions as anyone else for those goods.

     

    This isn't dire news, Chinese domestic prices are up as well, but valuations look different whether the basis is ex-China prices or Chinese domestic prices.

     

    NeoMat is in a similar boat, all their current sources are companies in China which they own large positions in, but are now subject to the same problems with exports.

     

    I actually like the Dacha business plan, but as I have mentioned several times before, I consider them just a little ahead of the market. Until they can start acquiring ex-China sources, I would be cautious valuing the company based upon ex-China prices. This is not a criticism just of Dacha, China controls 95% of the planet's REE supply (still), so this just puts them into the same boat as most other REE companies.
    20 Jun 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    thank ye all
    20 Jun 2011, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    LYSDY,LYSCF and GWMGF are all showing strength this morning.Volume on Lynas is good,ditto for Great Western.Hopefully both these entities are past their "Come to Jesus" moments.
    20 Jun 2011, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I once lived on Lawn Guy Land,and we had a $1 billion dollar/90% complete nuclear power project at Shoreham cancelled due to Three Mile Island.Not saying its going to happen here,but similarities can be drawn between Shoreham/TMI and Lynas/Fukoshima
    20 Jun 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Na nitro,
    The Minister's article in the Lynas announcement brings a very different tone to this discussion. The government has been consistent in their view that they decide this on the facts. No calls for delays, more town hall meetings, or political posturing. None of the Green tactics I would expect by now. Barring and out of the blue shocker, IAEA approval seems clear on the facts and this is smooth from there IMO. Even the short squeeze today should take pressure off the share price till the decision or possible trading halt.
    20 Jun 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Surprised to see a weak day in the boiled sheep's head trade. I don't see any IAALF news. Time to get in or add?
    20 Jun 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    I don't see any IBC news since it announced that "it has signed an exclusive supply contract" with an unnamed company. Probably worth $4 mil. or so. That was in early June.
    20 Jun 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. I published a $.17 Buy target for IAALF last week (might have been week before), and in fact I just added some shares.
    20 Jun 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Read the two user comments made a month ago at

     

    ca.hotstocked.com/arti...

     

    I have no idea about the accuracy, but if true, it does make IBC more interesting.
    20 Jun 2011, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I believe we discussed those IBC news items somewhere a few concentrators back, or at least they got mentioned/linked.

     

    I continue to cary this one as a buy at these prices, and have a plan to accumulate for the foreseeable future.
    20 Jun 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    I was out of the country then. Could have used that profit. Will go back to those concentrators.
    20 Jun 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At this point it has cycled back down into buy territory. You have not lost much if you buy now.
    20 Jun 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    That blog w/ those comments is the only place where I saw that "news" -- odd. And I looked.

     

    IBC needs to hire Jack Lifton to get the word out. :-)
    20 Jun 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I get their direct feed from the company, but they have the information about their nuclear fuel rod technology on their site (its not new news, it was one of the things that had me bring the stock to the Concentrator months ago), as is the news about their new fabrication plant (which I posted here several Concentrators ago, and so did several others I believe).

     

    These Concentrators only snapshot a few days (at most a week) at a time, so the links and comments could be back 5 or 10 Instas.

     

    The easiest way to access them might be to just "mine" my comment stream, looking for comments about IAALF or IBC. If you then link to that particular Concentrator, at that particular Comment, you will also probably see any other information posted by other participants located nearby.

     

    To get to my comment stream, hit my avatar, and then hit the button "Comments". This will show a chronological list of my comments. Scan back until you find what you need. I will apologize in advance for the massive numbers and size of my comment stream...
    20 Jun 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    My RSS news feed reader lists the URLs for about 17 concentrators, so I was able to find the references to IAALF fairly quickly. I had visited IBC's website earlier, but found no news related to that spectacular spike.

     

    I have now signed up at their website for their news.
    20 Jun 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, ung, I signed up with them and they have been sending me regular updates.

     

    I like the stock, its a long term investment for me - and I still have a considerable way to go toward filling my core requirement. I keep buying on the dips.

     

    I believe they were hurt (along with the Uranium plays in general) with the UD Japanese meltdown.

     

    Unlike some other stocks which I track with an eye to trading in and out, I look at IBC differently...

     

    BUT I believe anyone seeking to trade the stock might be able to do so by buying in the high teens and selling at 10-20% returns, though the cycles might be a bit slow for that sort of thing.
    20 Jun 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    No Volume again on ANLKY,last trade was on Friday,news???
    20 Jun 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    "Rare earth prices soar as China stocks up" in today's Financial Times. No mention of our faves, though.

     

    You may have to copy/paste into Google to read if not registered.

     

    www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/...
    20 Jun 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Get it here.

     

    www.cnbc.com/id/43458382

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Love those articles that state "non-Chinese miners have had to ramp up production" and "soon,there will be a surplus".Dollars to donuts,this reporter was in the horizontal position when they banged out this blurb.
    20 Jun 2011, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Face down maybe? :-))

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    I agree,just trying to illustrate the point that there exist precedents to this predicament,and in the case shown,neither the Utility (LILCO) or the Bondholders were happy with the decision.Most LI'ers,who had suffered through the energy crisis just five years previous,would have preferred the plant be completed and operated.Taxpayers took a hosing on that one.
    20 Jun 2011, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11495) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys, beware that solar panel demand is likely to take a huge hit with the slowdown and Euro probs. I'm not sure how much this affects RE but it will affect them somewhat since they are used for solar panels and fuel cells.
    20 Jun 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Likely a bigger impact on silver. Solar panels are now a large industrial consumer for silver, and in a form which is almost never recycled.
    20 Jun 2011, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Interesting.

     

    100K bid @ $0.63, 2.5K, 2.5K, 50K @ $0.649. Trades going at $0.63.

     

    Someone's getting some help on their buy.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): They're working it now.

     

    5.1K @ $0.63, 2.5K, 2.5K 199K offered @ $0.639.

     

    Where's our other 100K? Bid @ $0.62, 300K?

     

    Yazzuh, they screw us around until they get what they want.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, I don't know what is worse - this flagrant manipulation, or the periods when the big guys listen to idiot pundits and dump all their holdings, crashing the stock...

     

    No, come to think of it, I prefer the idiots selling to the manipulators manipulating. A sale is just a sale, while a manipulation is a robbery.
    20 Jun 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Matamec announces that Jacobs initiates coverage...

     

    wow, I don't think I have ever seen a company put out a PR about getting coverage.
    Imagine if (MCP) did that...
    20 Jun 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF) ok the volume was great....but we still closed below the 200dma. Even though there was a fade at the end, I will take it. It is better than a sharp stick in the eye.

     

    GWMGF
    Last
    0.6225
    Change
    +0.0306
    Bid
    0.6225
    Ask
    0.6327
    High
    0.6531
    Low
    0.5817
    Volume
    1,128,084
    Time (ET)
    3:59:58 PM
    20 Jun 2011, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Considering the way those big blocks bracketed price at various times during the day, we can't be disappointed with a small gain (not really that small, come to think of it).

     

    Steady-on will serve us well. *Very* good volume, above the 25 day average and only a bit below Friday's, with the whole day above the prior close from about 10:00 onward.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    (MCP)

     

    af.reuters.com/article...

     

    again, if you read the article, doesn't it seem that MCP is having trouble making the oxides to the customers' specification??

     

    "He added that Molycorp had faced some hiccups in processing the rare earths to meet customer standards, but that products had been delivered and the qualification process was underway."
    20 Jun 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The main problem sited by Japanese customers which I have seen have been the key specification: Price. Until they have exhausted their stockpiles (which were acquired at prices far cheaper than those in the ex-China markets today), they will be hard to sell...

     

    When those stockpiles run out...

     

    The world changes, and so do their attitudes.
    20 Jun 2011, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    (MCP): Gee, since they claim they will be the worlds lowest-cost producer, and what they have now was already mined, and ...

     

    I would'a thunk they could get an agreeable price point with their customers.

     

    Maybe all that hot air inflated MCP's expectations and it passed through to their pricing strategy? After all, as the worlds (future) lowest-cost producer it *couldn't* be their cost is not right where they expected, could it?

     

    Maybe they thought they were selling stock to the unwary?

     

    I know, this didn't add any value to the concentrator - I apologize. I just couldn't help myself.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Jun 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree for now aqwert.
    But theses are long term contracts, so do they mean production with old processing OR processing with the not yet built Phoenix. And is there questions stemming from a Mountain Pass shut down period?
    I agree with TB, right now price is the bigger issue. spot price is for those without a stockpile. Such buyer have a greater need. As a practical matter, I think all but Chinese stockpiles will be gone or mostly not yet stockpiled till at least after Moly is in production with Phoenix. And that could be a ways away.
    But the bigger issue I'm seeing is a weakening of the mine to magnet strategy. I'm just about ready to say it is flawed. Why? Because, in this strategy you attach a third business (manufacturing) unrelated to the other two (mining and specialty chemical) and the risk of poor organization and bottlenecks is obvious. This strategy had a good deal of it's benefit tied up in government loans for business development. Those loans have not and may or may not materialize. If they don't you not only take on the synergy risks, but you lose the ability to sell to the best OEM's and trade houses with long term supply contracts. Look how well Lynas is signing up the long term supply contracts. Look how poorly that part of the Moly story is going. Should we be surprised?
    Yes, if all three parts of the mine to magnet model work smoothly, the margins would be great. But that requires perfect execution from completely new industrial models and solid marketing to go with it. That is a tall order and so far the company's trying to do this (GW and Moly) have a lot to prove in my opinion.
    20 Jun 2011, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Article on ree-investor.com about MCP having $781 million in funding lined up with dilution and 3.25 senior debts,maturing in 2016.Perhaps the greater fool theory is at work.
    20 Jun 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2207) | Send Message
     
    The insiders are selling again.
    www.thestreet.com/_yah...
    20 Jun 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At the risk of soundling like an Elliott Waver (I confess to mass confusion over that charting method), I see these MCP lockbox events as composed of waves...

     

    Last time, you had a final wave like this that drove the price down to $40, with a 3 week period for the process to work through.

     

    After that, the enthusiastic pumping resumed.
    21 Jun 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2207) | Send Message
     
    It's strange that the insiders sold out at $52 and not $77 as though $77 was not the best of the wave action.
    21 Jun 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Today's the day… June 21 and 22 in Sydney...

     

    "Unquestionably, the conference Rare Earths and Strategic Metals will witness participation from rare earth companies, financial investors, specialist consultants who will interact with each other on the current global demand for strategic materials. Overall process of production of rare earths will be highlighted. Mark Saxon, CEO, Tasman Metals Ltd, Gary Billingsley, Director of Great Western Mineral Group and Jack Lifton, Principal, Technology Metal Research will be the key note speaker at the conference Rare Earths and Strategic Metals 2011. Leading global rare earths and strategic metals experts will make representation and will talk over mining of crucial metals. Such leading organization like Anglo Coal, BHP Billiton Ltd, BMA coal and Birla Nifty Pty Ltd are expected to share the conference. The research scholars will present their paper on different topics of interest"
    20 Jun 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Alkane put a Sydney presentation out today. I think that list was not complete.
    21 Jun 2011, 02:02 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Didn't help its stock price,down 4% on the ASX
    21 Jun 2011, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Much of the glow from the Petra report has faded.

     

    www.alkane.com.au/repo...
    21 Jun 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, the half life on that one has expired.
    21 Jun 2011, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    I'm showing the ASX closed up $.10, last trade @ $1.95... Are you showing something different? Encouraging IMO...
    21 Jun 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • Freya
    , contributor
    Comments (2428) | Send Message
     
    Use the SA search function:

     

    name of commentator, comments, IBC (whatever)

     

    should help narrow your search.
    20 Jun 2011, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (462) | Send Message
     
    Dr.Duru has a new article on seekingalpha.com about the Chinese academic who prognosticates a surplus in RE supply,and all the tizzy it recently caused
    20 Jun 2011, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jack quoted his list (which is essentially taking EVERY outlandish claim and prediciton from EVERY ex-China junior miner and calling them "gospel") months ago after he came back from a meeting in China. I saw it then as a WTO tactic, and I still do.

     

    You could do the same thing if you listed every gold junior on the planet (none of them currently producing) and added their dreams and wishes to actual yearly production and saw "Gold Surplus".

     

    Its as close to a meaningless exercise as I have seen.

     

    And as I keep pointing out, these guys use the "official Chinese output" for world demand numbers, conveniently forgetting about how much those numbers have crashed, and how much of the demand was being satisfied by off the books smuggling from literally THOUSANDS of illegal mines (now closed). There are at least 40,000,000 kilos of yearly demand which is being treated like a ghost, but it is real. This will become obvious as time goes on...
    21 Jun 2011, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    MCP / Sumitomo deal expected to close Q3

     

    www.ree-investor.com/o...
    21 Jun 2011, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Eventually, as the shortages continue to sap stockpiles and the Chinese exports shrink, Sumitomo will fill their order book...

     

    BUT it is a race between that event and Lynas hitting the market with new supplies of REEs from the LAMP.

     

    IF the customers in Japan can wait out the situation, they figure they can buy many of their basic light REE requirements cheaper.

     

    It is a strange, strange equation.
    21 Jun 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    I'm contemplating the $100M equity position Sumitomo would take in (MCP) if a deal is struck. Did I remember that correctly? I presume the pps would react in a negative fashion, overriding the "good news"?

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now you're getting in tune with the joys of the MCP Lockbox World Tour.

     

    I really don't want the stock, I want the T-shirt concession...
    21 Jun 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    I would think a deal like that would involve a special price. To do that, I would think they would have to issue new shares at that price. So I would think it's a kind of dilution.

     

    Assuming no price reduction, I believe minting 130m of new shares at 53 would be about a 2.9% dilution. If they got a 20% discount, it's a 3.6% dilution. If they got a 40% discount, it's a 4.7% dilution. MCP badly needs the capital, so my bet is on a big discount.

     

    However, the price is up... so I must be wrong somewhere.
    21 Jun 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It hasn't happened yet. The deal is on hold until Sumitomo gets enough customer orders to warrant the investment. So far, there is price resistance, and delays...

     

    But eventually it will probably happen.
    21 Jun 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    Interesting WSJ article today on pressure in South Africa to redistribute white-owned farm land more quickly.

     

    online.wsj.com/article...
    21 Jun 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Full text(?) here.

     

    bbclatestnews.com/as-r...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Those angry socialists had better do some home work. That land redistribution strategy has been employed before with stunning results. Stunningly desasterous, just look how well it worked for Zimbabwe.
    21 Jun 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    I am sure you Lynas heads already saw this but just in case:

     

    LAMP update
    21 Jun 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator!

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    This one is overflowing! Time to sound the Charge!

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    21 Jun 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
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