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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, August 4, 2011 156 comments
    Aug 4, 2011 11:26 AM


    "Skullrise".
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Comment from last Concentrator by Rain:

     

    Just a thought...someone may have thrown in a market order and that was the mark
    4 Aug 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'll repost this as jimp seemed a little concerned and I want to get the comment to her:
    NTU dropped on low volumes. The CEO George Bauk said in an interview that NTU could produce in five years verses a normal timeline for such a mine of 10 years. I think the five years was a reminder to some traders how far away production is right now.
    All the same time I lost a lot of money on paper last night (ate up more than my Lynas gains) in NTU. I would not add now as I think it needs stability, but the banks stayed in based on the low volume. My conviction in the stock as an investment is as strong as ever. I have not sold and will not until drill results in a month.
    Also note the current bid is much higher than the last trade. I think the losses will be cut in half by the afternoon.
    4 Aug 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Chi! I know your basically the go - to guy for NTU. I guess its link with Lynas doesn't expedite anything or makes it less profitable
    to have Lynas do most of the processing or refining,etc..?
    The basic ore is the least profitable part of the equation as J. Lifton would say...
    Jim
    4 Aug 2011, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Honestly jimp, I think it will. The banks know it too. No large investor could get out on the volume and lot sizes yesterday. And if they got out with the volumes from drills last month we would have gotten the ASX disclosure announcement by now under ASIC rules.
    NTU is a stand alone and cannot suggest a Lynas tie at this stage. So if they stayed on their own the five years would stay true. I think Lynas could take that down to three, but not less. NTU still needs to drill this out and build a concentrator at least.
    But the point is the stock will trade on drill results now. Like most REE stocks it is too far from production by any timelime. I think the Gambit drills look well placed. For now I'm waiting in a bad market. But I think the drills are worth the wait.
    For reference I see it on the first hill of the graph I put in this instapost:
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    4 Aug 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Art work is particularly appropriate TB.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Europe's biggest banks just took a 9% haircut, so if anyone thinks we are seeing "capitulation" here with our 2big's down about 3 or 4%, there are more fun and games ahead...
    4 Aug 2011, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think we are seeing capitulation.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    agreed.
    4 Aug 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    (August 4, 2011) Margin Calls Force Start Of Gold Liquidation
    From: Zero Hedge, by Tyler Durden

     

    As expected, the massive global rout is shifting to the best performing asset: gold, which courtesy of pervasive repo desk margin calls (which are merely trying to preserve capital for their TBTF holding companies) is seeing liquidations to satisfy collateral margin requirements.

     

    It will be interesting if the only real dip worth buying will see buyers come out of the woodwork or if gold will proceed to plunge alongside everything else. tinyurl.com/43h9qm4
    4 Aug 2011, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » finance.yahoo.com/bank...=

     

    So, we're pricing the next recession in now...

     

    Sounds about right.

     

    That would require another 5 percentage points off the S&P, I think.

     

    1110 would do it.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I do not see another 5% based on current economic data.
    4 Aug 2011, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, we lost more than another 2% points before the day was out.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I do not see another 3% based on current economic data.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Marc Faber expects 1050-1100 S&P by November.
    5 Aug 2011, 07:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Marc Faber makes a broken clock look reliable. He has been right once in his career. The man says the same crap all of the time.
    They should have Amanda Drury interview me. I would give a lot more data and would be very happy to offer it (totally hot for AD).
    5 Aug 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Get in line Chi, Review the clevometer

     

    .seekingalpha.com/insta...
    5 Aug 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I really do like your attitude.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, some snapshots of the stocks I am tracking:

     

    GWMGF at $.84 target, adding small block....
    IAALF below target, adding...
    NATUF below target, adding...
    NOURF close to target, watching
    GOLDF just above target, trade in progress, monitoring
    SDXXF at target, adding...
    SNDXF just above target, watching
    STTYF below target, watching
    HREEF below target, trade in progress, monitoring, may add to trade
    TAMO at target, watching
    MCP just above target for Trade, watching
    ARAFF below target, adding
    TASXF below target, initiating small position
    URRE near target, watching
    UURAF at target, initiating small position
    USMN near target, watching
    ALKEF near target, watching
    QREDF near target, watching
    QRM near target, watching
    GMO near target, watching
    4 Aug 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately, all I can afford are a few shares of IAALF. My order is only partially filled. :-(

     

    Oh well, things will be back up in a month or two.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've been squirreling away cash since April...

     

    So I'm still way overweight cash, this little bit of buying hardly puts a dent in it, but I thinking we have further to do on this correction (and that's assuming it doesn't morph into a sudden downramp for a recession).

     

    Still, the whole idea of working to a plan is to keep the plan flexible, but in the end, USE the plan.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, tracking on the list:

     

    GWMGF at $.84 target, adding small block.... Up 2.4%
    IAALF below target, adding... Up 9.3%
    NATUF below target, adding... Up 8.3%
    NOURF close to target, watching Should have bought.
    GOLDF just above target, trade in progress, monitoring Flat
    SDXXF at target, adding... Up 9.4%
    SNDXF just above target, watching
    STTYF below target, watching
    HREEF below target, trade in progress, monitoring, may add to trade (Still monitoring)
    TAMO at target, watching
    MCP just above target for Trade, watching
    ARAFF below target, adding Up 2.8%
    TASXF below target, initiating small position Up 0.03%
    URRE near target, watching
    UURAF at target, initiating small position Up 1.4%
    USMN near target, watching
    ALKEF near target, watching
    QREDF near target, watching
    QRM near target, watching Adding small block.
    GMO near target, watching
    4 Aug 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • Love_ Money
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    NTU holds 45% stake in metro coal. (MTE). MTE has dropped 10% in the past 2 weeks. There were Indian companies bidding for MTE, but looks like local Australian laws prohibit foreign investments in certain protected areas. So MTE take over bid lost some stream and the price went down. This had some impact onNTU prices. I see some downward pressure on NTU that is typical after drill results due to profit taking. NTU is still drilling lots of holes. Results will come and i hope it will have positive impact on the price.
    4 Aug 2011, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the insight, Love.
    4 Aug 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    Japanese have intervened. Dollar is up over 1.8 yen !!!) Steroids injected, now the $ will act like Superman until the drugs wear off...

     

    Tomorrow features loads of powerful headlines not yet written...

     

    If they disappoint, the down elevator is already well-warmed up...
    4 Aug 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, elevator is dropping a little faster...

     

    DOW is now down 10.64% from recent peak, I'm calling it an official "correction".

     

    This closely resembles similar events which followed the end of QE1, so IF we are looking at that sort of thing, we might hear from the Bernank anytime between now, and another 5% (644) points off the DOW. It took a 15% drop to pull the Bernank out of his hole last time...

     

    Regardless, I look at nearly 11% in correction as "buyable", at least initially.
    4 Aug 2011, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmm, since posting this, the DOW dropped another 114 points...

     

    Only 530 more before its "Groundhedge Day" (y'know, the wierd American custom where the Bernank pokes his furry face out of his burrow and, if the pile of money it takes to buy 1 share of the DOW doesn't caste a shadow across his face (and he's short, mind you), he promises to print more money until it does!

     

    I wonder which of his burrows he will pop out of this time. Last time it was out west, Jackson Burrow, er, "Hole".
    4 Aug 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey, it looks like Morningstar thinks we could see a 5% drop tomorrow:

     

    finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    Well, at least that should get the pain out of the way fast.

     

    I'm thinking we just see another nastiness like today, but then, NASDAQ dropped 5% today...

     

    Time for someone to start a "Bernank Watch". If he gets near a microphone, the market will probably pause whatever its doing, if not go up 100 points.
    4 Aug 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    fading morningstar's calls is usually very profitable.
    4 Aug 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. I don't know about going up at all. Almost any time a death eater pops out to reassure us the market tanks. That's even on good days. These guys can turn an out right rally into a precipitous drop just by going on TV and saying nothing. Beware government officials that show up to "Help.".
    4 Aug 2011, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ah, the Bernankhog is the exception, but ONLY on Groundhedge Day.

     

    On that day, his promise to print money endlessly instantly turns around even the most dire market drop.
    4 Aug 2011, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    A slowing economy and europe's debt issues have been plaguing the market for at least 3-4 months.

     

    talk about getting priced in.

     

    eurozone issues appear to have escalated, so seeing what happens there is the key to most issues I think.
    4 Aug 2011, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those new to zerohedge...

     

    www.zerohedge.com/

     

    Interesting place to monitor events such as those unfolding today.
    4 Aug 2011, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1891) | Send Message
     
    ASX futures are already down 100 points. If Australia follows us with a meltdown tonight -- tomorrow am may bring Lynas dip buying opportunity.
    4 Aug 2011, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good call Mercy!
    4 Aug 2011, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Agree... I am waiting until tomorrow for my Lynas buying venture ...
    4 Aug 2011, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My target is still at $1.96.
    4 Aug 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So I guess "decoupling" is too much to hope for tonight?
    au.finance.yahoo.com/n...

     

    Wikipedia-Decoupling and the stock market declines of January 2008
    Decoupling holds that European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States economy for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession. Faith in the concept has generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States. However, in January 2008, as fears of recession mounted in the United States, stocks declined heavily. Contrary to what the decouplers would have expected, the losses were greater outside the United States, with the worst experienced in emerging markets and developed economies like Germany and Japan.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Afraid so. Its pretty clear that the global links are now too deep and pervasive. Every day the leaders "build more bridges", lay neat rows of dominos across them, and declare it good.

     

    Economic MAD on a global scale.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think you're right on top of that one Mercy! I'm looking for that... Thinking QRM is on a fire sale right now too. I was planning on watching things from the sidelines for a couple of days, but I'm getting hungry. I think I may grab a little QRM, NTU, and LYNAS in the morning, throw 'em all in a bowl and mix 'em up like a good trail mix tomorrow if things continue to unfold as they are now. Maybe a little GWM too!
    5 Aug 2011, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think we're there tomorrow TB. Such discipline you have! ...or is it just cheap? ;-)
    5 Aug 2011, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Already overweight and long Lynas...

     

    Also, I truly do try to be patient and pick up shares cheap.
    5 Aug 2011, 08:01 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This I agree with. The Bernank is too much of a market watcher and will step in. For me the correction is buyable because the recession fears are supported by market data (oil drop, stocks drop, defensive trade) but not by the economic data (yield curve, M & A, inventories, corporate balance sheets). Housing has been bad for a while and it's not new. The consumer spending data was the worst data point. But the rest of the factors are flat with no contraction. Unless consumers start to push the rest of the data over the cliff (and the current number will not do that) I don't see the recession yet. As always it bears watching. But compared to 2008 we are in the best of times. Things are not good, but we have been through way worse. Check out the three year TED Spread for that memory:
    www.bloomberg.com/apps.....
    Or three month LIBOR:
    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    Worried about Europe? Compare Euribor last year to this year:
    www.euribor-rates.eu/e...
    I'd say we are OK, but we should be doing better.
    4 Aug 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    this is looking alot like capitulation (at least for this leg) the volume is huge . down to up vol is crazy.

     

    not that I am buying....
    4 Aug 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (SPY) highest volume since 3/16 downdraft. 480M vs. 467.92.

     

    Then 647M on 5/10/10.

     

    If it's not capitulation, it's a pretty good imitation of it.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    puke and buy...
    4 Aug 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Now that's a strategy I've never heard of. How does it work?
    4 Aug 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • prescient11
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    I can take a picture of my trash can, then of my options orders today. hahahahahaha.

     

    The laugh of a demented rare earth investor!
    4 Aug 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    A lot better than buy and *then* puke! :-((

     

    We don't want *that* kind of result.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    "How does it work?"

     

    ....that's a *trade secret* Robert. ;
    5 Aug 2011, 02:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So, other than all of that, how was everyone's day? :-)
    4 Aug 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Still looking at the green side of grass so all is well. No strokes, heart attacks, seizures..... The market on the other hand seems to have had a litlle of all three.
    4 Aug 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Mr. Market seemed down right apoplectic to me.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Good! Got some decent stocks (for the future) at decent prices.

     

    I'll let you know how that works out.

     

    Tomorrow, some RE stocks.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Spot on Double. Good to see ya. Days like today remind me of when Louis Rukeyser in 1987 offered us these words:
    www.youtube.com/watch?...

     

    “Let’s start with what’s really important tonight: It’s just your money, not your life. Everyone who really loved you a week ago still loves you tonight, and that’s a heckuva lot more important than the numbers on a brokerage statement. The robins will still sing, crocuses will bloom, babies will gurgle, and puppies will curl up in your lap and drift happily to sleep, even when the stock market goes temporarily insane.
    “(And now that that’s all properly in perspective, let me say, Ouch! and Eek! and Medic!)”
    God bless you Lou. Rest in peace.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    P.S. It today’s terms, the 1987 crash was the equivalent of a 2,400 decline in the Dow.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » True. I hope we never have to live through that again...

     

    I was NOT invested back then, though I had just bought my first house.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I hope so too TB. Today was W-A-Y painful enough. By late morning I just turned off my trade screen so I didn't have to watch anymore. Well, also to keep myself from doing anything stupid! Fortunately, I took a good chunk off of the table Tuesday morning. Took some nice profits (though I would have much preferred to sit on them a bit longer) and I took some sizable hits that I wasn't real fond of, but they were big positions that I couldn't afford to have sitting there tied up for a long time if things got real ugly. If I can't get back in considerably lower in the next couple of days, I'll suffer through. I think I'll be looking for some write-offs come tax time anyway.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:43 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I have little to say....my tummy aches. I have shrunk most positions starting on Monday afternoon. Will try a few shorts through the weekend and also add LYSCF en masse on anything <$2. Have eyed and added to TAMO and IAALF today. Wish I could reduce trading shares in NOURF, but there are no buyers. I am having a hard time guaging the seriousness of this "Correction". What are we talking here? Dow 11,000k....or Dow <10,000k? Do we think it serious enough to take well-liked stocks below bottom end of trading range? Could we see <.66 NOURF, <1.8x LYSCF? <.75 GWMGF?? or will technicals hold?
    4 Aug 2011, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    RainH2O: Greetings. Mature trading stocks were dumped. Immature stocks and house stocks except (IMAX) were held without stops. Core stocks were stopped at 13% but none triggered yet.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think tomorrow will be at least as ugly as today Rain. JMHO and I'm no expert, but I think both tomorrow and Monday will likely be ugly as well unless there is some BIG news before then and I doubt that because the factors crushing the market now are too vast and have been brewing far too long for anyone to pop on the screen overnight and make it all good again.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Not sure today will be as ugly but expect this to continue for some time. This is just like the last aug until benny announced qe2. Expect the market to continue laying on the floor kicking and screaming until it gets its qe3.

     

    If anyone has kids they will fully understand what is going on here. No qe3 and the tantrum goes on for a while. Expect more as we get closer to Jackson hole.

     

    Metals broker says I should wait on metals till later in the month unless there is an announcement of qe. He expects this aug to be like all other augs with the low reached later in this month. We got head faked and took a blow. Keep powder ready, unless this really gets going south, in which case buying might be in late Nov-Dec like 2008.

     

    My gut is screaming 08 all over again, my head refuses to accept that while my heart is just aflutter. Nothing has been as it would seem lately so this is not a rational market and I should have realized that when the market tanked instead of going up after the debt ceiling raise was settled.

     

    I liked Rick santeli comment to buy stocks when 10 yr hits 2%. He is one of the few regulars I like to listen to on CNBC.
    5 Aug 2011, 07:24 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    HT: Cannot decide what to do with Cappy going into weekend...do not like position, but "Buy high and sell low" is an investment theory which has a poor track record.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (CPST) All I can tell you is that which you know already. I added 13K today at $1.335. And if I can get more in the $1.2x range tomorrow I will.

     

    But you must keep in mind that I am a risk taker and very patient.

     

    And it has taken patience in the past, sometimes, to eventually profit. I've only taken a small loss one time.

     

    *My* risk-taking is not for everyone.

     

    Obviously I believe that management told the truth when they said the upcoming would be their best ever. I add in that the analysts have not necessarily adjusted forward the shipments from previous quarter that shipped early this latest quarter.

     

    I firmly believe that most of the metrics continue their improvement.

     

    *BUT*, as you know, I've been disappointed before and quite recently too.

     

    If you have some, maybe just hold and see what happens. Set your stop-loss price where you want it and forget about it.

     

    I know no one, and have never heard of anyone, that has never suffered a loss. Managing the losses is the key if you want to be a trader.

     

    If you're an investor with a longer-term horizon and believe in the investment don't be spooked by the markets.

     

    MHO,
    hardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Oh yeah...Chi: Congrats on the 1000k comment mark...you are now "Top 100" ;)
    4 Aug 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Thank you HT and Mr. Ferguson for your (always) helpful advice and info. I am -at times- truly bad at this.
    4 Aug 2011, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Investing in its highest form is a search for the fulfillment of a dream.

     

    "A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world". - Oscar Wilde

     

    Sometimes, it takes a lot of courage and fortitude to pursue a dream.
    4 Aug 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Rain,
    It amazes me how much the world notices idiots that never shut up.:-)
    4 Aug 2011, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » econintersect.com/b2ev...

     

    Another very old, very traditional measure of economic activity with clear danger signs flashing "Contraction Ahead".
    4 Aug 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    What a day. I just happened to add to my gold fund in the 401k.... yesterday. Rats. (well, that is not exactly what I said )
    4 Aug 2011, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This one's for you, HTL: econintersect.com/b2ev...
    4 Aug 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    Trying to keep me up at night? I'm going to have to really study that one - it's got all the necessary "ifs", "buts", "excepts", ... that caued me such grief with EWT to start with.

     

    But study it I will.

     

    Thanks you sir!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    ASX down 4.1% right now. Lynas down AU$0.175 ATM. Northern down AU$0.85.

     

    Yikes!

     

    Note the timestamp on the comment for reference.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug 2011, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1891) | Send Message
     
    The Japanese Ambassador to Australia recently highlighted the importance of Lynas' Mt Weld project for Japan -- which currently relies on China for 97 per cent of its rare earth imports.
    au.news.yahoo.com/thew...
    4 Aug 2011, 11:14 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Rare element resources (REE) announces a new find of heavy rare earths. J. Kaiser seems to believe that if there is significant tonnage of these newly found heavies, then REE will be of interest to end-users and MCP. This changes things, where REE will not be considered just another "light rare earth resource."

     

    www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    5 Aug 2011, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Downunder in Oz whilst we slept, our faves suffered a decline. In US bux, Lynas ended at 1.95, Alkane at 1.77, Arafura at .62 and Northern Min. at .64. Sure wish I had some dry powder if we match those prices Uptop.
    5 Aug 2011, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Get your questions ready.

     

    "Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC) will hold conference calls to discuss the Quarterly Report for the period ending 30 June 2011 that was lodged with the ASX on 28 July 2011. There will be a Q&A session at the end of the calls."
    5 Aug 2011, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks ung,
    There are two calls as usual. The first is unrecorded; the second is recorded. They are on August 10th:
    Wednesday 10 August at 0800hrs (Sydney time) and the second call is at Wednesday 10 August at 1700hrs (Sydney time):
    www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/...
    5 Aug 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Non-Farm Payrolls come in it at 117,000
    5 Aug 2011, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So-so... Not a number to trigger anything, really. 75k would have been a push toward the brink. Much less than 75k, more so...

     

    But this could react along with a potential pullback (slash dead cat) bounce, so we COULD see the markets reverse course.

     

    I'm not EAGER to buy back in, but I will nibble and stick to my plan.

     

    Best of luck to everyone, I HOPE we get back all that we lost over the last month, I just don't expect it just yet...
    5 Aug 2011, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Agree TB. Unemployment down to 9.1 is not from 117K job increase. We need over 200k to decrease Unemployment so that means more folks just fell into the abyss but it makes selling QE3 harder so I expect this will be as you said a slashed cat bounce. Again it seems to be a bi-polar market and is making no sense right now. pm's taking a hit.

     

    I think we must really be in a rabbit hole. Just remember the white knight is talking backwards and you must absolutly remember what the door knob said.

     

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    5 Aug 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good number. Consensus was lower so it looks like a beat. If employment holds steady the bears can't say we are in a recession. They can still say "no recovery", but I think we are priced for that. I think it will be a sit back and wait for buying day.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The brink? The brink of what? If it were the brink of a recession we should have gotten a negative number IMO.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Though for a "near" recession move, or towards its "brink", just a very low number works as a warning.

     

    A negative number would indicate something stronger, of course.

     

    Like all such numbers, absolute size matters, too. Just to cover new entries to the job market, the number needs to be about 150k. Every time. 200k, as DG wrote, would indicate a meager job recovery underway. 115k indicates continuing erosion, a slow wearing away of the status quo (such as it is).

     

    That this is now heralded as "good news" (and accepted as such) indicates how low the standard has dropped for our economic results.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OK TB,
    But we have been "near recession" (less than 2% growth) all year. No one thinks things are great. But this is a lot of selling for the current data points IMO.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We're close in our read, just I'm on the darker side of the same operational envelope than your are. If you looked over the last 2 or 3 links I provided, there IS evidence that we are skating on the brink of Contraction (of course, then one gets into the whole smarmy redefining of what a "recession" is, but anyway...), which I believe is the downramp to a potential recession.

     

    Today has, unfortunately, played out as I thought it would. The good news is that we are now only about 1 percentage point away from my personal gauge for this corerction. I really do NOT know how long it might wander around at this level, but its now met the criterion (15% correction, currently over 14% so I'm calling it near enough) for me to start nibbling away at my large store of dry powder.

     

    I DO see a clear road for it to drop another 5 percentage points, particularly over some period next week, and particularly if we do NOT get the action needed to stabilize Europe. August is "vacation month" for Europeans (pertty much ALL of Europe), so little gets done there during August while the big shots lounge about in their spas...

     

    So there's an odd factoid working against their interrupting their mandatory 8 weeks off every year to, well, "work".

     

    Our own leadership is no better, though they tend to spread their free time out over the year a bit more evenly...

     

    I'm still thinking the whole thing gets brought up short (just like last time) when the Bernankhog pops out of his (Jackson) Hole and gets scared by the sun shining through the huge hole in our economy.
    5 Aug 2011, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree TB.
    We are close to the same read and your play has been better than mine overall.
    5 Aug 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not trying to beat you (or anyone else except "the markets"), Chi. We're just debating economics and investments. I hope we will both continue to win some - or at least, more than we lose.

     

    There is a lot of GRAY in these topics, and its hardly easy to figure. I am wrong plenty of times...
    5 Aug 2011, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree. I don't see it as a competition. It is more like a conversation for me. It is less about right or wrong and more about the depth of information provided IMO.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17254) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Well, some of managed to get Dr. Stephen Leeb to expand is scope a tad: gives a mention to GWM here.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    HardToLove
    5 Aug 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, but only an "implicit" mention.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...
    5 Aug 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Bought (LYSDY) at 1.99.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, the party's over for the Nasdaq. Just hit the red zone....

     

    Pretty darn weak bounce there...

     

    S&P and DOW are slipping fast, too...

     

    Watch out below.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Crap, by the time I posted that, they were all in the red and accelerating.

     

    Not buying anything just yet, need to see how deep this spike will go first...
    5 Aug 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Those who gave the consensus never saw the last crash coming. I would not expect them to see the next one either. This is not a jobs problem we are going through at this very moment its a debt problem and it will not be resolved with 117K jobs when over 200K is needed to keep up with the rate of folks just entering the work force. The big picture problem is jobs but I really do not see much improvement in that area coming soon enough to amount to much and it certainly is not going to do ANYTHING about the debt problem.

     

    www.dailyjobcuts.com//

     

    Even hooters in Vegas going into chapter 11.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    oops.... seems its 90K per month we need to keep up with folks entering the work force.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/news...
    5 Aug 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » finance.yahoo.com/news...=

     

    NYT just said the "R" word.

     

    Of course, after the Debt Ceiling fiasco, the political equation has changed. Now the Republicans own a big chunk of the blame (and this is at least implicitly the point of this article).

     

    The Republican leadership will rue the day they drew a line in the sand which they could not hold.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Politicians hold a line. Bwaaaahaaaahaaaa.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree Double.
    The long term issue is debt and regulation IMO. The debt is a Washington spending problem on all sides. The regulation problem is evidenced by the cash on corporate balance sheets that companies will not use if they do not know the rules of the game.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Look at this employment participation rate from ZH just posted. They must have been listening in on our conversation.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/news...
    5 Aug 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Folks comming out of the rabbit hole, stocks down.

     

    But wait till 10 O:clock when BO is ten feet tall. Go ask Alice.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Oops its 11 O:clock for the BO promise (again.... how many times now) of a focus on jobs. Fool me once.....
    5 Aug 2011, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I would not be surprised if he went ultra class warfare left and blasted everything. The guy is so out of touch.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: Did you see the mini-flash crash in Sandstorm this A.M....hate that stuff
    5 Aug 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I never have stops on Sandstorm, so it didn't really effect me.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    www.businessinsider.co...

     

    Rumor du jour is that S&P is going to downgrade the US after the close.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Makes sense to me.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    Have about 500K on the sidelines,hammered on XIV yesterday,but thinking about putting half on the XIV pass line,then put the rest in the odds.
    Think any contraction will put a stop on Junior RE development,and will help the mature projects.
    Keep the faith,the fever will break soon.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Nitroae, I predicted in my SA article "The Myth of the Summer Rally" that the fever WON'T break until the markets look ahead a year to Nov 2012. I'm guessing we're in the Dog Days for a couple more months. But I do agree that XIV will be a great play at the right time!
    5 Aug 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    Whats going to happen in Nov 2012? I know the Mayan clock thingee,but thats this year.If we are talking about elections affecting the market in the short term,you lost me.
    5 Aug 2011, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Nov 2011 = election optimism, warranted or not / favorable seasonality factor / ennui with the doldrums / Q4 earnings surprises / relief that The Rapture didn't come to pass, increasing optimism that "the Mayan thingee" won't either -- though it will be a great excuse to party hearty in Honduras!
    5 Aug 2011, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    Considering the current XIV configuration,which is 40% VX Q1-CF= 29.10,and 60% VX U1-CF=26.15,is an average of 27.33 buy in.For the last two years,the only time the VIX settled above this at expiration was May 2010,the 22 other times final settlement was below 27.33,with the average being 21.01.What may be scaring investors is that VIX futures are currently in backwardation,however,I view that as a VERY bullish indicator.
    7 Aug 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nibbling some more this afternoon, just bought:

     

    GWMGF at .78, TAMO at .27, UAMY at 2.60, LYSCF at 1.90, ARAFF at .63, TASXF at 3.61, URRE at 1.12, UURAF at .63, ALKEF at 1.71, QRM at 4.21, AVL at 4.22, GMO at 3.66...

     

    Watching many others.

     

    Bansai.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correction, still waiting on TAMO to fill...
    5 Aug 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • AnglicoTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    UAMY had such a huge run up since April (0.55 to 4.20) and has come off its peak since then. do you think its still going forward, short term? medium term? long term? or has some more back filling to do?
    5 Aug 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right now I am lumping antimony plays in with our rare earth stocks, and its run closely resembles that of, say, Lynas or Alkane. The narrative is similar, the geopolitical backdrop is near identical, and the timing is close.

     

    Again, comparing its run to some in the REE sector, it DID overshoot, but in the mid-$2.00 range I find it attractive.
    5 Aug 2011, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    I eeked 2k of TAMO at .27 must have been the last buy. Its still sitting at that price.
    5 Aug 2011, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Great price on Lyscf Trip! Wish I waited.
    5 Aug 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You still got a good deal, Rat.
    5 Aug 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tracking on earlier trades:

     

    GWMGF flat at $.78
    TAMO flat at $.27
    UAMY up $.20 to $2.80
    LYSCF up $.06 to $1.96
    ARAFF flat at $.63
    TASXF up $.06 to $.3.67
    URRE up $.04 to $1.16
    UURAF up $.019 to $.649
    ALKEF up $.04 to $1.75
    QRM up $.33 to $4.54
    AVL up $.34 to $4.56
    GMO up $.36 to $4.02

     

    I am astounded that this initial tracking is all positive at this point.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More tracking on trades:

     

    GWMGF up $.02 at $.80
    TAMO down $.01 at $.26
    UAMY up $.25 at $2.85
    LYSCF up $.12 at $2.02
    ARAFF up $.035 at $.665
    TASXF up $.0685 at $3.6785
    URRE up $.06 at $1.18
    UURAF up $.0241 at $.6541
    ALKEF up $.04 at $1.75
    QRM up $.22 at $4.43
    AVL up $.26 at $4.48
    GMO up $.33 at $3.99

     

    Very nice gains overall, particularly for Lynas, UAMY, QRM and AVL.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm not in Quest, but that thing got very cheap today. To the long term Quest holders I tip my hat to ya. I think ya'll will be OK. But I see ya went through a lot today. You have my best wishes.
    The comment goes for all of the rare earth stocks I suppose. But it has been one heckava welcome to the exchange for QRM. Good luck to all.
    5 Aug 2011, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11015) | Send Message
     
    It's sad to see gold, silver, and RE miners all down. It is particularly sad to see gold miners down even though gold is up. It shows that there is indiscriminate liquidity selling without regards to fundamentals. It's always nice to have some powder in the keg to buy and take advantage of these selloffs if you have the guts.
    5 Aug 2011, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    I'm not buying hardly anything these days, but I did a block of LYSDY for clients and myself. (No, it wasn't me driving the price back up today; I only place limit orders on $2 stocks.) Paid $1.94 for the first lot, $1.96 for the second. I could have paid less but considering these were additions to stock originally purchased for $1 - $1,17, I don't quibble for a penny or two. And -- I consider the company a better buy today at $2 than I did when I bought it for $1.
    5 Aug 2011, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I consider Lynas a buy at $1.96 and less - have for quite a while now.
    5 Aug 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • AnglicoTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
     
    hate to sound overly ignorant, but when people on this blog refer to Lynas, do they mean LYSDY or LYSCF?
    7 Aug 2011, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Both. Also LYC for those of us who trade on the ASX.

     

    LYSDY is the American ADR for Lynas (this has an advantge for some investors whose brokers charge very high fees for trading Australian stocks). ADR's have their own, seperate fees, but they are usually much cheaper than the high ASX fees (except for those brokers who charge lower ASX fees - this varies).

     

    LYSCF is the standard pink sheet symbol for trading Lynas on American exchanges.

     

    LYC is their symbol on their home ASX exchange in Sydney.

     

    We have investors participating in this blog from all over the world, including Canada and Australia.
    7 Aug 2011, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rollercoaster day...

     

    Expecting a drop at the end, though I hope to be proved wrong...

     

    News I was looking for from Europe has not been forthcoming yet, and our national leadership is still floundering around in a grand demonstration of their determined impotence.

     

    Voldemort just floated a trial balloon regarding giving businesses tax credits for hiring veterans...

     

    Frankly, I am a vet, and I am very supportive of the concept of hiring vets...

     

    BUT the only time I see politicians talking this way is when:

     

    1. They are about to rif (reduciton in force), ie, FIRE a bunch of career servicemen, and usually directly into a high unemployment rate with few job chances for them. This is particularly cute when it happens right in the middle of a war.

     

    2. They need political coverage for some screwup they recently were guilty of...

     

    3. They are seeking to "balance" the idea of a big tax INCREASE with some credits for a few veterans so they can use it as a club to smash their opponents: "SO, you don't care about our veterans, do you? IF you did, you would agree to this tax increase so we can give tax credits to companies that hire veterans".

     

    Of course, the superior position would be to just use the bully pulpit of the Presidency (or other high government leadership position) to REMIND America's employers that they should consider hiring veterans - that we owe them a chance - and its the patriotic thing to do.

     

    Of course, THAT path would not yield any bennies for the politicians, and could hardly be used to mousetrap their political opposition, or get their own cherished pile of pork funded.
    5 Aug 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    No surprise as to how the market rally fizzled, eh, TB? We human investors carry positions beyond the closing bell -- but if you were an institutional trader, would YOU want to own anything over the next 48 hours. Best to be flat and enjoy The Hamptons.
    5 Aug 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » By robert.ferguson (inadvertently deleted by yours truly, sorry robert):

     

    Straights Asia Resources (SSGDY) is back in the buy box. I added another block @ $43.5.
    5 Aug 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: Did you attempt to add NOURF today...it is noticeably absent from your board?

     

    I added LYSCF at 1.94, 1.96, and 2.00
    Added TAMO, IAALF, and CPST
    5 Aug 2011, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No. Its buyable, imo, but I decided to wait for Monday.

     

    None of my buys were huge - I am averaging into the downslope right now, though I really do hope its the bottom of an incipient up-spike.

     

    I'm recalculating all of my targets, bringing them in line with the new reality. For the most part my earlier targets worked well, but they were designed to give results with a 10% correction. Now that its turned into a 15% correction, some of them are a bit too high.
    5 Aug 2011, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    The ZH answer for the market pogo stick today.

     

    www.zerohedge.com/news...
    5 Aug 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Q: If Nancy Pelosi and Obama were on a boat
    in the middle of the ocean and it started to sink,
    who would be saved?
    A: America!
    --Jimmy Fallon
    5 Aug 2011, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    S and P just downgraded the US credit rating tonight.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » econintersect.com/word...

     

    My discussion with DG and Chi about the employment numbers kept bothering me all day. Not the varying perception of what would be a "good", "bad" or "horrible" number, but the fact that the numbers being reported aren't, well, REAL.

     

    The BLS uses algorithms to compute these numbers, which are massaged for seasonality, and the adjustments spread around. In general terms, the 2nd half of the year (for seasonal reaons) generates very few new jobs... Hence the algorithym (damn quants are everywhere)...

     

    The link above has some fairly simple explanations, but it boils down that the "actual" number reported (pre-massage) was a minus 4,000 jobs.

     

    Ha.

     

    Something to keep in mind, I believe, in light of events.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    A couple of thoughts and reminders we often forget about jobs IMO. First the reminders:

     

    1) Jobs are a lagging indicator no matter the metric.
    2) Recessions generally are happening when we get the first big miss two the downside. Expect 78K and get a minus 150K and that is a big tell for me.
    3) Recoveries often have the same big miss to the upside. Expect 78K and we get a 278K number. This is common in the numbers history. And such actions ignite legs up in the market too.

     

    There is a lot of debate about the numbers and their quality. None of the approaches seem to be able to give all of the detail, sampling and quality we want. Pick your favorite if you like. It will still have noise in the number and will not be perfect.

     

    My view of non-farm payrolls is the market cares about it (especially short term) and the market is up most of the time on that Friday. Beyond those two important short and long term factors, I generally care more when the miss up or down is by 100K or more.

     

    Today's number confirmed the rest of the data IMO. It is not good, way below potential, but not recessionary either. I think investors tend to see recessions as a drift into a slow drag, but in truth they frequently are more sudden with a shock attached. Fed rates leading to inventory shocks; bank failures leading to credit shocks; oil shocks slowing growth suddenly; catastrophic events creating consumer shocks are all examples.

     

    We are weak now and that leaves us vulnerable to a recession IMO. But you still need the leading indicators and/or the black swan. Right now I think we just have too slow a growth burdened by the prior credit crisis and too much regulation.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » econintersect.com/word...

     

    The BEA has rewritten history - and this is another basic set of data that each observer can compare to their own ideas and common sense and determine how the numbers track for them.
    5 Aug 2011, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    TB and others more knowledgeable about China than myself: it has been discussed a little here, but I'm hoping to get more clarity on what y'all make of the recent drop in REE prices (that is, esp. in Chinese domestic prices). Mainly due to the general drop in commodities due to fear of recession? Perhaps, but it did seem to begin a little earlier than all that (some downward pressure since the release of the new quotas, IIRC). Help appreciated.
    5 Aug 2011, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Laff,
    On the China FOB the drop has been Ce and La. Gd has tailed off but is very up for the month. The rest of the REE's are the same ole staircase up on the charts.

     

    I think most of the price action has been on the supply side in China. There appears to have been some hoarding around the quota setting. I do not think this is anymore than temporary. The slow down in China's growth appears controlled right now and is not enough to stop the prices from rising IMO.

     

    Some insiders think the strongest part of the price rise is done. I think the LREE will rise less from here but they will still rise. The HREE prices still have their biggest gains ahead of them.
    5 Aug 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree with Chi.

     

    Also, it would be wise to remember that prices are "set" in China, not determined by a free market or the forces of supply and demand. This is particularly true for rare earths.

     

    China is moving rapidly toward establishing something they call a Rare Earth Exchange. Since this new entity will have as its first (and by far largest) selling customer the Chinese REE Cartel, it will be interesting to see whether they allow true price discovery, or just use the "exchange" as a new form of central planning and control.
    6 Aug 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    As a continuation of your comment that prices in China are "set" TB, might that also be part of trying to lure more REE oriented businesses to move to China? After all, the move would not only ensure that they would have the ability to get REEs, it would also ensure that they can get them cheaper than on the open market. That combination is tough to beat.
    8 Aug 2011, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. In the past, they "set" the prices artificially low to hook their targets on cheap resources, and to drive out all competition. Even then, the prices inside China were considerably lower than prices outside China, so this worked to loose the "weak hands" and move a large bulk of manufacturing in those areas into China... But NOT the "strong hands", who of course also hold the highest technological ground.

     

    To overcome the resistance of the strong hands, China set prices higher, reduced supply, and used the rare earths as a club to force them to relocate to China. This process is still ongoing, but with clear signs that the plan is working (Hitachi and other high tech bastions in Japan are hollowing out, pouring their resources and proprietory technology into China).

     

    We are now entering a period of time where prices become a secondary concern, and ACCESS to supplies the primary. This is the true power of a commodity Cartel in executing a geopolitical plan.

     

    Now, as soon as alternative sources come on line (as they eventually will), we can expect a quick shifting of strategy...

     

    Phase 1: Use subsidized prices to create a monopoly and addict your targets to your sole source. Establish a 2 tier price and supply system to entice the majority of your targets into your trap.

     

    Phase 2: Restrict exported supply and raise non-domestic prices, while maintaining a ready supply and much lower prices at home. Use this strategy to break loose some of the resistant targets and bring them into your trap.

     

    Phase 3: Use overt price controls and greatly reduced supply to attack the strongest targets. Use this overt force to drag them into your trap.

     

    Phase 4: In the event that Phase 3 does not work, reduce stress on the captives within your trap, and ensure that they enjoy a strong competitive advantage over their remaining, residual adversaries outside the trap. Makes sure the pet captives within the trap can undercut the prices and technology of those outside the trap. By killing off these final competitors, the geopolitical goal can be at last achieved.

     

    We are into the later half of Phase 3, and can look forward to a switch to Phase 4 before long.
    9 Aug 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Somewhere between the middle of Phase 3 and the initial third of Phase 4 we can expect to see our REE players peak. Its likely that the best time to unload and find somewhere else to invest will coincide with a time when it appears they are "winning".

     

    Longer term, I would expect to see the Lynas model upheld and repeated, as the ex-China rare earth sector shrinks down to miners shipping ore or roughly concentrated minerals to China for further processing, refining, and finished goods manufacturing. Some miners will succeed for a very long time, though the dreams of vertically integrated companies are likely to be truncated.

     

    Should anyone doubt it, I currently see China winning this affair eventually. Their competition (our aggregate national leaders around the world) are incompetent fools.

     

    But that's a long term prospect, and I see us making excellent profits between now and then, if we can stay ahead of the Cartel wars.
    9 Aug 2011, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    'Japan Arrests Chinese Fishing Captains'

     

    online.wsj.com/article...

     

    We all remember what this meant for the REE sector the last time this happened. (Still, as the article discusses, the situation is a little different this time around.)
    6 Aug 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    By the way, although this story seems worth following, I don't expect that China will break out the REE club again this time - it would probably be too problematic for a possible future WTO case.
    6 Aug 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Alright gents, thanks for the replies on recent REE price action. Since I'm asking questions, I ought to ask one that has been bothering me for a while: why, despite all the grumbling and rumbling, has no one brought a WTO complaint against China re. REEs? Were they just waiting for the conclusion of the recent case involving other materials?
    Shoot, while I'm at it, I might as well ask what you think the odds are that China's quotas would survive such a challenge. Have they now made enough domestic restrictions to defend their policy?
    6 Aug 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    My understanding is that the US is/was expecting China to appeal the recent WTO decision, so they were going to wait and see how that panned out and how China built it's defense before filing anything further.

     

    Any lawyer worth his salt will tell you that once you enter the courtroom, the out come is generally up in the air. That said, I think China could probably present a fairly strong defense. Whether or not they win is anyone's guess.
    8 Aug 2011, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » www.raremetalblog.com/...

     

    Interview with Alkane's Chambers.
    7 Aug 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Alkane has an excellent outlook. Some sort of a link with Lynas seems like it would make sense.
    7 Aug 2011, 12:33 PM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
     
    techmetalsresearch.com

     

    Has a new Jack Lifton article,discusses tonnage of certain RE elements needed in the U.S.

     

    Urges us to get a policy together here to prevent industrial shortfalls when China stops shipping HREE's in 2015.

     

    Forgets to mention we have an ally (Australia) who could probably help out with a few kg's of the stuff,hmmm,wonder why?
    7 Aug 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    Seems like everyone is pretty quiet this weekend...the calm before the storm on monday? This week will be very interesting to see how the market handles all the bull in washington and the s and p downgrade.
    7 Aug 2011, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Fatfretter
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    ca.news.yahoo.com/tel-...

     

    Tel Aviv market halts trading
    7 Aug 2011, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Fat....we are on new CC now...no link here. Search Tripleblack REE concentrator august 7
    7 Aug 2011, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    Sorry, here is the new link. I was interrupted by essential business...
    7 Aug 2011, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    New Concentrator is ready, link is above.

     

    8888888888888888888888...

     

    8888888888888888888888...
    7 Aug 2011, 08:34 PM Reply Like
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