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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, October 25, 2011 192 comments
    Oct 25, 2011 9:02 AM

    "Wolf" by stan bruns
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Comment from prior Concentrator by RainH20:

     

    Aqwert: If a license was assumed for Lynas...shares would currently be trading in the 2.50-2.85 range IMHO. The market (under current macro conditions) are surely pricing in a rejected license ATM....as no one is willing to place many speculative bets in this macro.
    25 Oct 2011, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    that was my point, Rain.... when all was as expected, LYSCF was at 2.8x . Then there were rumors (even I heard them and I don't follow the stock as well as you guys do) that LAMP would be delayed. The stock was clearly telegraphing something was wrong. So here it is at 1.3x hoping for something NOT to be taken away that was already assumed to have been assured- the approval. So get the approval and you should go back to where you were.
    Contrasting that to GW (they do not have the same chart AT ALL) and you see more of a waiting for something NEW to happen -- more upside. Of course, there is the possibility that what newness every one hopes to have happen doesn't but none of it is known so therefore the upside is all there.
    That was my only point. Perhaps I am not explaining myself well or it only makes sense to me. :)
    25 Oct 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I understand what you are saying aqwert, but using TA premises to draw FA conclusions creates doubt for me. And the evaluation ignores the sector performance, the markets performance, REE price activity, and short interest in rare earth stocks as well.

     

    And if I follow your view, Lynas should have dropped most in July since the IAEA set the recommendations at the end of June. Looking at the charts it was early September when things got their worst. Overall, I just don't agree I guess. As to GW, sure they will rise when they get approvals.
    25 Oct 2011, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    chi, you must not have had your coffee yet....

     

    You said "when" GW gets approvals, not "if"... ;)
    25 Oct 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    September was the market correction (.even GW went down in Sept.) so it make sense that that was the biggest part of the decline but the decline was well in place long before that.
    It is just one way (of many) to look at that chart. It was there early to see.
    ps. isn't any chart a reflection of analysis by market participants? Yes, sometimes there are market inefficiencies -value plays, short momo's etc-but don't charts reflect the current state of affairs? GW isn't higher because there are unknowns and Lynas went lower because an assumed approval was not forthcoming....

     

    .
    25 Oct 2011, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    "It is just one way (of many) to look at that chart."

     

    I agree. And if you look at the charts long enough in reverse you can see whatever you want to see. Your negative view of Lynas is not insight to me just because the share price went down. I mean if you were looking at TA indicators like HTL and said they point to trouble ahead that would be one thing. But saying bad news was flagged months in advance based on the weakening share price seems like backward reasoning to me.
    Bottom line is the biggest moves in any junior will generally be based on the progression or failure of the junior's project(s). I think Lynas is progressing well and will be past this AELB issue soon, therefore I continue to hold. That is my reasoning and I find it clear and supported enough to build my conviction in the stock based on it. Your point does not allow me to do that. Putting money in a stock based on charts without using TA indicators sounds too much like gambling to me.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I would hardly try to convince you to put your money in or take your money out of any stock.
    My point was not about TA indicators at all. But if you want to talk TA, the time to sell was when lost the 50 day the 2nd time in early June. Then the 50 crossed under the 21 a few days later. Or if you were really waiting , on a monthly when the 5 gets under the 10 and broke the 2$ mark in Aug. That also shows on the weekly when the 15 crosses under the 20. That little nifty indicator on the weekly had me sell all my mutual funds in the 401k and out of the market completely on July 26th (Except for the gold miners... that's a different story) The market is still under those indicators btw but getting close.
    TA is fine but it is telling a story about the stock. That is what a chart is -- a visual line chart of your stock's particular story. You can apply TA to it all you want. But the underlying message is still a story of your stock. Warts and all. Looking back years from now, you will be able to look at the Lynas chart and point to this time and someone will ask you what happened and you won't say, "oh it lost the 50 day right there.... you will say, oh that was when the LAMP permit was delayed" And hopefully you will be able to point to another part of the chart and say " see, this is where they got the permit"..... is that TA? That has absolutely nothing to do with my view of Lynas at all....
    25 Oct 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    A lone Wolf... very nice... What is the design below the wolf? Is it a hidden message :)
    25 Oct 2011, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Spells out the word "wolf" in norse (saxon/viking/etc) runes.
    25 Oct 2011, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    ahhha! excellent!
    25 Oct 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    That's sweet TB. I was going to email you the same question (since I think I owe you one anyway...sorry). Likin' the wolf A LOT, at any rate.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Rain: I view the current trading in Lynas as indicative of "market manipulator interest". Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi are throwing around a 10% share (150million shares or so) which they were actively selling off for several months (driving down the share price), and are now actively covering short bets and increasing share balance. JPM, C, and probably GS are also involved. The transactions by MS/Mitsu. are contained in the lengthy pdf's posted on ASX under the LYC screen (and linked to the Concentrators over time). These reports (required by Australian law due to the large holding represented by the Mitsubishi shares) clearly show what has been happening, at least in their case.

     

    Needless to say Lynas (like all stocks) reacts to macro-level market trends and events - currency exchange flow - and geopolitical news. But it is also clearly involved in a major maket move by the shadowy whales which rule much of the world's equity market.
    25 Oct 2011, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Use your browser search and find LYC (or you could just scroll - at's alphabetical sequence). 9.97% short.

     

    http://bit.ly/uxW0ty

     

    HardToLove
    25 Oct 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » By an old coincidence, that is the precise percentage held by MS/Mitsubishi a while back (may also be their current situation, they were down in the high 7%'s, after selling off millions of shares and dumping the share price, but now they have been buying and covering short positions).
    25 Oct 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Link to article detailing Toyota setting up large new operation including research and development in China:

     

    http://on.wsj.com/vVq8Nl

     

    Potentially bad news for GWM (and all other ex-China sources of rare earths, of course), at least medium term.
    25 Oct 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Purchased some Molycorp convertible preferred this morning for around $79 to $80/share. Getting a 27% premium over the common, and the yield is about 7%. Par is about $100.

     

    A safer, less volatile way to play Trip's $38.00 common share target he wrote about months ago--a good yield with some nice upside potential over the next couple of years.
    25 Oct 2011, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good timing on that I believe, Maya.
    25 Oct 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, I think so, Trip. What's cool is that it was my long held interest in the REE space that led my broker have a, "Eureka moment," as he described it, in digging up this preferred premium over the common during this past weekend.

     

    And that eureka moment is directly attributable to your REE threads, in a derivative kind of way.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A lot depends on the planning horizon of the investor. The premium makes perfect sense if one is going to be in the stock for 2 years or more, and its hard to see a downside compared to the common unless one is strictly trading the stock on a shorter cycle. The dividend will offset medium term risk so that even should the premium erode, the investment is likely to perform better than the common stock. My personal plan is to switch to the preferred as my core position solidifies (right now I am still trading actively, or at least likely to, over the short term).
    25 Oct 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Trip: Two years was the exact holding time frame discussed, as MCPs mines should be up and running by then, and the common and the preferred therefore should be up significantly from today's pricing. The preferred was once priced at $142.

     

    I agree that the preferred has an excellent chance to outperform the common, with a nice yield. I went ahead and pulled the trigger even though I expect the market to do a little correcting over the next week or two.
    25 Oct 2011, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    looks l like I may be back to even on that horribly timed GDX add. I added yesterday when more $ came in as well.

     

    I think the metals are about to rock n' roll here.

     

    ps. but what do I know? Look at the ill timed add for proof!
    25 Oct 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Looks like GWM can build a nuclear reactor at the Steenkamp mine… From the Scoping report...

     

    The proposed mine includes (or may include) a number of activities that are listed in GN R545, namely:

     


    "The construction of facilities or infrastructure for nuclear reaction including energy generation, the production, enrichment, processing, reprocessing, storage or disposal of nuclear fuels, radioactive products and nuclear and radioactive waste."
    25 Oct 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At one time thorium was considered a very likely successor to uranium as a nuclear power source (as we have been discussing here). The idea that South Africa's nuclear regulatory agency would look favorably upon such a development (and particularly in a region which could probably stand some additions to the national power grid) isn't really that surprising.

     

    Maybe one day it will even come true.
    25 Oct 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    That would be an outstanding fit for a Hyperion Power Module. Not sure if any of you are familiar with them, but if you're not, you might want to check them out... I love the potential for this company! Keep waiting for their IPO, but it's been a bit like waiting for GWM to do something. ...no offense intended to GWM fans, of course. It just seemed to fit.

     

    http://bit.ly/ulAWfK/
    25 Oct 2011, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Love the wolf. A female red wolf lived with us for 17 years. Truly amazing creatures. Not to be confused with dogs as they live by a completely different set of rules. A K-9 psychologist (If one believes in such) who's name I can't remember at the moment wrote that dogs are wolves that never mature past adolescence; but I digress. Sarrissa resources is proceeding with the spin outs aproved at the OCT 18th meeting. http://yhoo.it/val0HA Things should start getting interesting if the new drill results are favorable.
    25 Oct 2011, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I met a red wolf and a florida panther (both very rare) at a science fiction convention in St. Pete many years ago. The group putting on the Con helped raise money for preserving some habitat which I believe was ultimately donated to the Nature Conservancy.

     

    I continue to accumulate SRSR, robert, including picking up some sub $.03 shares recently. I have a $.03 buy@ target on the stock currently, and I am trading it as well, buying at $.03- and selling at $.04+, pocketing additional core shares as I go.
    25 Oct 2011, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if we will get any insight on the status of LAMP with the
    Lynas Quarterly Report Investor Relations Call coming up? Are they really going to be late?

     

    I want to know the status of these licenses, and how Lynas Corp is dealing/ managing with the latest politics in Malaysia.
    25 Oct 2011, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    when is the CC for Lynas?
    26 Oct 2011, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/tHZskg
    26 Oct 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    there are 2: the 31st and then on the 1st. http://bit.ly/vxUUI5
    26 Oct 2011, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    thank you, guys. Why 2?
    26 Oct 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Time zone differences between Sydney and NY are pretty tough. If they want to let North Americans participate without staying up all night, they do 2 calls.
    26 Oct 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We may have news forthcoming from GWM tomorrow, at least that is what several folks who have contacted GWM's IR are saying. We will see...

     

    This is just less than a month in front of the Nov. 22 special/extraordinary meeting, so they may be trying to quiet down all the upset investors left hanging...
    26 Oct 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Tomorrow is the date that equity holders must be informed as to what they are voting on at the special meeting you referenced.

     

    I would be surprised if there wasn't some late day action.
    Best,
    Matt
    26 Oct 2011, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. I am just wondering if anyone has already heard what that might be...

     

    I suppose I'm just tired of waiting, like everyone.
    26 Oct 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Tell me about it. The volume is ridiculously low - I am seeing 8,500 on the pinks - tells me nobody has any idea what is going on. But for lack of anything else to talk about should we get one last roll call on predictions, Chi that includes you!

     

    Best,
    Matt
    26 Oct 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I am tired of waiting too. I am tired of talking about the speculation/nothing, etc.
    They better have something to say tomorrow. (I am on travel which is kind of a bummer as I wanted to get some popcorn and sit back and watch the fireworks) I hope it solves the majority of their problems in one swoop but who the hell knows as this point!
    My bets are placed (obviously) and I hope I won't be bashing my head against the wall tomorrow. I already have a headache and still am not feeling my best!
    Good luck everybody....
    26 Oct 2011, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    Asking me for GW answers is the pinnacle of frustration and grabbing at straws. Just kidding:-)
    But seriously, I think you and TB have had the best guesses and yet it's all a guess. The best I can say is the process lets GW holders be counted if they stand up. If you don't like what they say in the information, stand up and post here and at Stockhouse about it. That's what Crown Keepers did with Lynas and it did help. Likewise, if it is good, celebrate and share the thoughts as well. I'll call ya a Kool-Aide drinker of course but who cares about that? :-)

     

    My point is the blogs do give us a voice we never had years ago in the "Wall Street Week" days when retail guys got everything after the fact. And that voice with juniors can matter if it is clear and compelling. So while it is understandable to be antsy right now, I'd view the disclosure as an opportunity in a way.

     

    On the down side, this special meeting could be one of those "water only" conferences where the location (hotel) and banquet room are nice, but they go super cheap on the spread due to the cash on hand. I hate it when that happens.
    26 Oct 2011, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    News Release: Special meeting has been delayed as Jim and Co. had trouble renewing their licenses and couldn't find an alternate means of transportation to the meeting, but rest assured it had nothing to do with not being able to afford a cab. Furthermore, the Oct. date was never actually official, we just meant sometime in 4Q. ;)
    26 Oct 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Faux News Release: The JV will occur around December. This H2 2011 completion is in line with the company's "what we say when we say it" policy but we do not know whom it will involve or what it is about. That said we are very encouraged by the tremendous progress we have made on the subject.

     

    We would also like to assure the markets of our tremendous cash on hand position. However, it is with great prudence that we are pleased to note the special meeting venue has been relocated to a back ally in Toronto where a garden hose will provide attendees with all of the potable water they wish to enjoy at the meeting.

     

    The company will also be issuing a billion or so shares to cover the doubling and funding of the compensation plan. This action is to reward management for any future progress that might occur. Further details will be forthcoming when we feel like it.
    26 Oct 2011, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    "Heavy Rare Earth Element Arena Seeing Movement".

     

    Maya's seen this already. Mostly the usual "fluff" about HREEs. But about 50% of their bits are spent pumping Stans (HREEF).

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2011, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    "ASX says trade production has stopped"

     

    "SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- ASX Ltd. /quotes/zigman/238333 AU:ASX -0.63% , operator of the Australian stock exchange said Thursday that trade production has stopped due to technical difficulties.".

     

    Th-th-that's all folks!

     

    http://bit.ly/tnxt71

     

    I lied! "ASX: no information available about length of halt"

     

    http://bit.ly/udpGgJ

     

    HardToLove
    26 Oct 2011, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    Looks like they fixed it. Lynas & Alkane up 8.5¢ last night in Oz. Other faves up lesser amounts.
    27 Oct 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/tna7aL
    27 Oct 2011, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/t5uGbu

     

    More evidence that China is shutting down Cartel production to "regulate" re supplies. As they absorb the remnants of the prior priate rare earth industry, and put the remainder out of business, this sort of temporary measure to combat the "liquidation" of scattered supplies makes a lot of sense. They are continuing to offer to buy (no questions asked) certain key oxides and metals, too. This continues to track perfectly with the long-running rare earth narrative...
    27 Oct 2011, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    (GWG) Nothing to brag about but I think I accounted for about 80% of the volume on the pinks today. I remain overweight but unfortunately I am beginning to understand where the "emotional" Chi has been coming from. I will look to trade this stock a lot more actively as opposed to my buy and hold approach that I had in the past.

     

    On that note, I don't think I am so unique, and management has to realize that the way they are handling things it encourages trading rather than investing, which isn't the fastest route to get the stock into a new trading range.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    27 Oct 2011, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just took a run through the REE stocks I track, most of which have been doing extremely well today:

     

    QREDF up 14.46%
    ALKEF up 13.04%
    QRM up 10.95%
    TASXF up 10.46%
    LYSDY up 9.60%
    ARAFF up 7.26%
    HREEF up 7.02%
    MCP up 6.57%
    AVL up 6.54%
    UURAF up 4.89%
    USMN up 4.76%
    HUDRF up 2.47%
    GWMGF flat
    GDLNF flat
    CALY flat
    TRET down 2.63%
    MHREF down 5.50%

     

    Great Western is fading as the day passes and the news release with a list of the action items pertaining to the upcoming Nov. 22 special/extraordinary Meeting which was promised for today (as reported several times on the Canadian mb Stockhouse) has yet to appear. I expected this to happen after hours, so I am not disappointed (yet), but there is also the real likelihood that, once again, a delay is in the offing.
    27 Oct 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Further your point, the overhang of essentially a Friday (after market Thursday) news release 9/10 times is not well received for a reason.

     

    If stockhouse is correct Dwight P. is actually on vacation in Palm Springs, no joke. Are you kidding me!
    27 Oct 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Amazing what a trash and tanking USD will do for commodity-related prices.

     

    When the euphoria from the latest EZ fiasco fades and the Euro tanks again I expect we'll see USD up and commodity-related down again.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I think the special meeting thing would come after the bell. But I am not sure that it solve anything. It may have nothing to do with GQD. Obviously not sure.
    27 Oct 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I always thought the special meeting was called "just in case" for something they were working on and were taking all the precautions required by securities law. I recall a lot of if's as to the location, times etc. So I am not extemely dissapointed if it doesn't happen. However, I think it points to a bigger trend that Chi has so eloquently pointed out, management and more specifically execution and communication. If we don't here anything about this meeting after the bell why wouldn't they have somehow informed investors that the meeting is not going to be held. They could have easily spun as not being a negative and wouldn't be in violation of any laws talking about a meeting that isn't happening.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I agree that there are communications issues at the moment but I still think they are working on something bigger/more complicated than the original undertaking with GQD. That is my hunch but obviously it is only in my head so take that as you will.
    I think there will be something after the bell since the original communication with Dwight was Oct 27th that was posted somewhere. But it may or may not have to do with anything...or everything. It is just too hard to tell at this point.
    The stock is hovering at the 50 day and near 200 day so if it gets above that regardless of the news , I would call that a good thing.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Dwight just got back to me and said "we will be updating the meeting status before the day is out"
    27 Oct 2011, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    haha. does he mean before the trading day is out? or the whole 24 hours? EST or PST? ;)
    I think that they missed 2 self imposed deadlines but all the other hoopla that has been going around is self-induced -- myself included.

     

    thanks for getting the info, Matt
    27 Oct 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    now on stockhouse , there is an email from Dwight saying the PR today is about Sp. mtg not JV.

     

    The plot thickens....
    27 Oct 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. That has always been the agenda, getting out a list of the purpose(s) behind the meeting. It may overlap provisions for any JV(s), of course. I suspect that details will NOT be part of the communique, other than what can be inferred from the topics which comprise the Meeting's agenda. The idea is that stockholders need to have an idea what the meeting is for in order to prepare themselves to vote.

     

    Of course, just knowing that certain strategies are being put forth by management is revealing of key concerns involving project funding methods.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I gotta say whatever they are cooking up or not -- they have been pretty good at keeping it to themselves. The lack of volume says that no one knows which as a " small fish" , I find comforting regardless of what happens. I hate seeing that those in the know get a leg up before everyone else does.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'm a reader on this at this time. I appreciate the compliment Matt but I'll be the first to say me commenting on GW is regrettable never eloquent. I hope this works out for you guys and if GW wants to be seen as the company they described in the Annual Meeting's Engdahl address, it's more than time to cowboy up.
    27 Oct 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    I was kicking myself for not putting the old ";)" after eloquently.

     

    I am at a loss for words regarding GWG, apparently this is a "super secret special meeting".

     

    27 Oct 2011, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well,
    Not one word about the JV.
    No company investment into GW (like Aichi taking shares).
    Just a pure capital raise of a minimum of $15,000,000 of common shares of GWMG.
    Of course Byron remains on the take and there is no Steen update or specific breakdown of how the offering will fund activities.
    "The Company plans to use the proceeds for the continued development of its Steenkampskraal project in South Africa as well as for general corporate expenses."

     

    So GW does a capital raise at the trough in the markets and realizes this is a bad time to do it based on:
    Jim Engdahl said, "Our Company evaluated this strategic decision (consolidation) very carefully. A share consolidation can be a catalyst that enables GMWG to fully access a broader capital markets strategy, and on that basis, could be of benefit to shareholders. The current financial market conditions, however, intervened and the Company's assessment was that shareholders' interests would not be served by proceeding at this point."

     

    Saying the last line and not apologizing for failing to raise capital sooner is both stupid and arrogant. I don't own these guys but I'd dump on Engdahl for a dumbass comment like that if I was on a GW call.
    27 Oct 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/ui0Z0B

     

    IBC has an interesting new partner in the nuclear fuel development cycle.
    27 Oct 2011, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I went on SEDAR and GWM hasn't filed anything new. FYI.
    27 Oct 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    DILUTION! COMARK AND BYRON!

     

    ++++++++++++++

     

    http://bit.ly/tNDhxA
    27 Oct 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    1 point for Chi! ;-)
    28 Oct 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Great Western Minerals Group Announces Brokered Private Placement and Defers Special Meeting of Shareholders

     

    http://mwne.ws/vzrvzd

     

    HardToLove
    27 Oct 2011, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Interesting. So they were going to try a reverse split. Cancel that and go with dilution. It really does not say how much except a minimum of 15$ mil. As I recall, there were 2 (more?) people on the conference call (one being from EuroPac Canada) urging them to go ahead with dilution and take the uncertainty out of this.
    Does the "private placement" get the institutional investors in even though the equity is under a buck? Would the same rules apply?
    27 Oct 2011, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I think they dilute not enough to make a dent in fulfilling their strategy and thus, leaving opening the possibility to another round down the road.

     

    They used the limited cash on hand to make this a must but if the options were plentiful months ago and the bank account a little fuller, nevermind......

     

    I will say what is great about this board is the diversity of opinion, particularly Chi in this case made me look a little harder. While I picked up a bunch last week for a trade, I unloaded a significant amount of my core today.

     

    Thanks all. Better days ahead, I hope.
    27 Oct 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    Part of the reason I left GW was because I never knew what I was doing with it. So maybe now that the institution guys on the call got the funding and issuance, the weight has been lifted, and the thing will go up. I don't expect that but nothing would surprise me.

     

    Most of all I wish everyone the best. I did say and will continue to say tough things about GW if I believe them. But I do not root against any stock holders (not even Moly). Even when bearish it only makes sense to be negative if it can be constructive. I'm glad you traded some Matt. And I agree that the list and the conversation it creates deserves credit. But I think you should credit yourself for using the information in a constructive way. A reader that profits from information is way ahead of other readers and writers IMO.
    27 Oct 2011, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    It doesn't get said enough, so I want to say it here.

     

    Your input has been well appreciated. For me personally, it added thoughts and considerations that are normally way beyond what I can do with my available time, background and current level of knowledge.

     

    Specifically, I've been pleased that I exited at a profit at $1 and have had the patience to wait and watch and learn regardless of the charts.

     

    The knowledge from the other camp is also very valuable ... except that I have a more difficult time making a decision! :-))

     

    So to *all* who take the time and expend the energy to engage and share, a hearty "Thank you"!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2011, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you're right! The willingness to share research, experience and opinion here is terrific. This forum is invaluable.
    28 Oct 2011, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I'll chime in and say ditto to the above. Thanks Chi.
    28 Oct 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I appreciate that. But I would be remiss if I did not also mention that toly flagged the "cash on hand" and balance sheet issues in GW, probably more than me. Toly is a damn smart guy and he brings a view that is very fundamental and is often underestimated by investors IMO. The balance sheet issues he sees on the front end are critical to juniors and his ability to blend it with the science is great. He often combines the science which evaluates the promises here with the balance sheet practicalities in a very insightful way.
    29 Oct 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    So a new day, Anybody care to comment on my opinion that it will be a big mistake at this point if they only go and get the minimum $15mil. I know pricing will be a consideration and I am skeptical if they could price above the high $0.50 level, but at this point leaving the door open for more dilution in a relatively short time span leaves them open to so many issues. The idea that they have given the Chinese the upper hand by being so desperate is just one of many issues as well as the overhang of the lights being shut off again in short order etc.

     

    I wasn't outright opposed to dilution. However, the way they did I think was the worst possible option and is telling:

     

    1) Its all about framing the situation and be open and honest to shareholders as much as legally and strategically possible. By constantly stating that dilution is the last option and stating that many financing options exist but then in a matter of weeks going with the "worst" option is telling.

     

    2) if they really have so many interested parties a more creative and confidence building form of dilution would have been a lot more acceptable.

     

    A few more thoughts:

     

    -Special meeting was smokescreen. Kept just enough intrigue of a potential buyout to keep sellers from fleeing.

     

    -A few days ago I was thinking it has been a while since Byron has commented. Now I know why, if it was going to be positive they would have a lot more leeway to prime the market. In hindsight this had bad news all over it.
    My early morning thoughts got to get the sell orders in place.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    28 Oct 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is a place-keeper decision, allowing them just enough breathing room (with minimal dilution) to resume negotiation with potential partners and customers. $15million is obviously NOT going to build any physical plants, but that is what all the maneuvers with GQD, Toyota/Aichi, and the titanium guys is all about.

     

    I see GWM's primary mistake as misjudging their negotiating position and over-estimating the commitment to the project they thought existed with GQD, for instance. I'm trying NOT to reiterate all my prior speculation, so I will suffice to say that they are in a very tough round of talks with oriental companies who WILL drive hard bargains. Only equally hard negotiation and the willingness to walk away, leaving the other guy hanging (which is what they, of course, have been perfectly willing to do to GWM) will suffice... And that will take time.

     

    For reference we can look to the recent events regarding MCP and Hitachi and Sumitomo. Some characterize the demotion of the Hitachi JV to the role of a sales contract as a loss for MCP, but it was probably a wise thing to do - assuming MCP really WAS intent upon following a mine to magnet plan. Otherwise, they would have ended up the junior partner in their own business, more of a captive supplier operating at the lower end of the profit curve while Hitlachi rejuvenated their magnet factory collection with a now-secure and reliable long term source. Sumitomo would have lopped off even more of the potential profit chain, as they became the official middle man for the bulk of the ex-China world's rare earth demand.

     

    Now MCP is beefing up their in-house ability to truly go from mine to magnet production (more than a startup, but not the running start that a joint venture with Hitachi would have created), and has opened their own rare earth sales operation in Japan. WILL the other Japanese keiretsu that compete with Sumitomo prefer to deal directly with the MCP gaijin? History tells us that they might, and particularly when ex-China supply is extraordinarily scarce, this gambit could work to MolyCorp's benefit in the long term.

     

    So, what does all this mean for GWM and the future of their negotiations with GQD and Aichi? I believe that now the fulcrum of TIME shifts levers, and it is the Chinese company that loses the advantage, and GWM who can stare them down and simply tell them that they need them less than they are needed by the other party. Events back in China support this theory, as the Cartel assumes more and more control, squeezing out such as GQD, every day...

     

    Aichi/Toyota is already signed up as a customer, so this is less-directed at them UNLESS the deal with GQD truly does crater. At that point we will see what transpires, and just how much remains in what must be a VERY depleted Aichi re stockpile.

     

    Time is the fulcrum, and leverage is determined by who controls both the lever (rare earths) and the fulcrum.

     

    I would expect that Engdahl has NOT yet given up on a jv with GQD, but now that he has a small bit of maneuvering room, he will be driving hard for a final agreement. I believe he will probably get it, too, UNLESS the Chinese were angling for more than just 25% of a seperation plant...

     

    In that case, they will seek to tie him up as long as possible, hoping that some other disaster befalls GWM and they can ultimately buy them out for a song (which may well have been the intent all along).

     

    I believe this is Engdahl's first dance of this kind, and now we will finally see what he can really do. Perhaps he was naive going in with the Chinese, but surely he has learned some hard lessons from all this upheaval...
    28 Oct 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    But if they go for minimum dilution doesn't it only buy them a minimal amount of time before they are right back in the same position?
    28 Oct 2011, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In this case, I would think they can operate for months from the $15m. I don't think the other parties will want to stretch negotiations that far, and even if they do, that also gives Engdahl time to setup alternatives.
    28 Oct 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    From what I understand, TB, the work goes on at SKK and the chinese are involved.
    I agree... I think they grossly underestimated the time it takes to hammer out this JV with GQD and they ran out of breathing room. So I don't believe they had a choice.

     

    thanks for your analysis
    28 Oct 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I guess if they just want to pay the bills, but 15m IMO wont allow them to make too much additional headway at Steen which also gives them leverage as they would be a lot more attractive to other partners if say they got 30mil could pay the bills for a while but also continue or even ramp up mine refurbishment.
    28 Oct 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe there was a very careful equation involved in arriving at the $15m figure. This will allow refurbishment to continue, LCM furnaces to be installed, and for the drill program and sampling to go forward on schedule. What will be impacted (if they still intend to meet their existing timeline for physical plant buildout) will be processing plant construction. I have gone on record in the past doubting their completion estimates, and every day that passes with this funding still up in the air just makes those estimates slip further. I would expect a new set of estimates soon, recognizing the delays, but I also expect that they would much prefer to issue this news along with a full funding package of some kind.
    28 Oct 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Regular photographic updates showing progress of the newly inserted Steen update section of the website with current pictures will go a long way. Just hope it doesn't start to come in longer intervals.
    28 Oct 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    My understanding is the $15 million is just a minimum and it could/will be more. I think the reason it is not much more is because the markets have not been favorable for an issuance. If you look at the financials last year $15 million is not likely to last long if they are expanding LCM as well.

     

    TB, I respect your view, but must admit I disagree with all of the above larger post. If Moly was in control and truly driving the negotiations, they would have brought in other suitors before the breakdown with Sumitomo. And if Moly did not want the JV with Hitachi, they would have touted the skeleton of a new approach in the Moly press releases IMO. That has always been the Moly way- promise the moon and shoot in the air and hope you hit something.

     

    As for GW, I'm not sure the "JV" with GQD has ever been anything but a trade partner name attached to a Heads of Terms document designed to save face for a broken promise to shareholders. We are getting very little feedback from GQD on this and all that we get is through GW. If the $30 mil China set aside is for Steen I'd like to see the link that ties the money to Steen.

     

    Honestly, I urge the GW holders here to rethink the idea that GW is a big player in the REE industry at all. The customer agreements are good, but I think the Steen and LCM progress is awful. Add to that a disastrous compensation plan and there is more "Mining the Street" here than in a normal junior or "Vulture" Exchange company IMO.

     

    How much has GW really accomplished in the last year? How much can you measure the significance of this company? If these guys are a first mover like Moly or Lynas, why do the pictures, updates and information fall so far short of this Moly/Lynas level? We are only three months after the promises of the Annual meeting and the "were not the same GW as before" speech. I can't match the wit of OG's "we don't know what the hell we are doing so we can't say" line, but I will ask: Is this same ole GW?

     

    Some can wait and see about LCM and the new furnace and see if that works well. But everyone in any stock should have standards they expect of the juniors they hold and if those standards are met or missed it should effect the size of the holding IMO.
    29 Oct 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Precisely how I see it as well. $15m is an interim step, and what they do next will hopefully be more of a complete measure rather than a continuation of slow torture such as we have seen for over a year now.

     

    I tend to agree that Moly was not in control of the negotiations (early on) and when they sought to get their way later, were stonewalled by both Hitachi (as far as Hitachi supplying them with proprietary data to forward their mine to magnet strategy) and Sumitomo (who was pressuring them to drop prices below market prices to help them, as the middlemen, to lock up orders). Those deals became unpalatable, and were terminated in the case of Sumitomo, and demoted to a sales agreement with Hitachi.

     

    I believe MCP would STILL like a true JV with Hitachi, including access to Hitachi's extensive technology base (including some of the best magnet recipes in existence), but would also insist on being a participant in the entire chain of events through production of the end product, things Hitachi is unwilling to grant.

     

    Bringing in other suitors was effectively blocked, so long as the Hitachi agreement was still in abeyance, and so long as they had a deal with Sumitomo. Only AFTER these two barriers had been pierced could they approach other potential suitors, and by then they had decided to go into both businesses on their own hook. By opening their own shop selling rare earths in Tokyo, they undercut Sumitomo, and by purchasing their own magnet makers (with likely plans to greatly enhance them in the future) they undercut any JV with Hitachi or any other major company currently making competing products.

     

    Whether these choices are wise, only time will tell, but I do believe its obvious that they left themselves little room for joint ventures in terms of finished magnets or middle man contracts once they took that turn. Of the two decisions, I suspect it is the one involving setting up their own sales arm in Japan which may be ultimately successful, while they will likely continue as very small potatoes when it comes to high end finished magnet production.

     

    On GWM...

     

    I found the original notice of the $30m which appeared in the Chinese papers as hopeful, but like their business accounting, journalistic accuracy there is even less reliable than the poor results we see in our own media. It will be nice if and when it happens, but its obvious that its nowhere near the done-deal those articles promised.

     

    I have always seen GWM as a smaller niche player rather than a dominant force, and the numbers back up this assumption. Anyone investing in Great Western with the idea that it will be a world beater expanding to huge size and eating up the likes of Lynas and MolyCorp really should do some remedial research. Some of the message boards have this constant urinating contest going, and its both annoying and disconnected from reality. This does not mean, however, that small niche players should NOT be investments, but that they should be viewed realistically (something which has been the topic of the many comments and links employed here since long before this Concentrator's inception).

     

    GWM is a high risk play with a wild year ahead of us, and that is as clear as I can express my opinion. I have actively traded this stock for nearly 2 years, and made excellent money overall, but the fundamental risk factors have remained fairly constant.
    29 Oct 2011, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    On GW, I'm sure many on Stockhouse do not appreciate the size difference between GW and Moly or Lynas. But my comment is on the time line. GW is a 2015 story IMO. I just don't see how we can look at the photos, information and announcements and conclude it will be much sooner. The SRK VB posted, the Scoping Report, the IAEA notes all tell me this 2013 stuff is nuts. And GW's failure to give further drill results or to get a 43-101 on Steen underscore the thought that these guys may not have any first mover advantage. I need to see the GQD JV, a 43-101 on Steen, or some like evidence to believe the 2013 time goal.

     

    And if my bearish thought proves accurate I do not see how Steen is feasible if Ce and La are in oversupply and Steen is dealing with that much thorium. And simultaneously, LCM must turn a significant profit with the new furnaces to make the GW plans work. Without these two factors (Steen and LCM) how much is GW really worth? I know this is a tough time in GW right now. But to choose to hang in through this offering I think holders need to decide this issue for themselves. I think the question is key to deciding if GW's future value makes holding through the issuance worthwhile.
    29 Oct 2011, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have seen Lynas as first to market, with GWM 2nd (late 2013 at best, low odds on that imo, 2014 most likely, say Q3 or 4). This assumes they DO get whatever expertise they need from a jv... Without it, the whole thing slips a year from there, putting them post 2015. As for weighting the timeline with odds, I'd have to say that the odds that they can keep their current schedule are 20:1 against, and perhaps 4:1 against late 2013 startup. 2014 still seems doable, but I would still say the odds there are at best even that they slip into 2015.

     

    IF they manage to pull off 2014, they will have exceeded the timeline performance of any similar example I can name (including Lynas, which has done very well over the past year but missed their own timeline for Mount Weld by 2 years to start with). I consider that level of success for GWM to be unlikely, but not impossible. More likely they will experience delays at each milestone, and end up in the 3rd or 4th quarter 2014 still needing a break to crank up the whole vertical integration.

     

    I still believe that GWM WILL have a first mover advantage, though one defined within the scope of what LCM and their capability for providing HREE's can yield. MCP just MIGHT sneak in and nip GWM's 2nd place finish if things fall just right for them - and just wrong for GWM, but neither Lynas nor MCP will be positioned in 2014 to provide the heavies which they might ultimately supply (based upon Lynas' plans in Africa, and MCP's odd announcements about discoveries near Mountain Pass).

     

    Always the "first to market" narrative has been about "rare earths", an over-broad generalization which is long past time for experienced investors to parse back to individual elements. Lynas will be first for those elements it will be initially geared to produce, and based upon its basket of high percentage elements contained in its extremely rich deposit...

     

    But they will not pop out of the gate producing the full gamut needed, nor will MCP, and nor will GWM, for that matter.

     

    Even should the GQD jv be finalized quickly (though delayed by at least 4 months so far, critical lost time), this would still mean that GWM needs to offset their timeline by the lost months. As for the 43-101, that is obviously something they are still working on, and I would expect it to take at least another 3 months for anything like a complete review (though we may well be hearing updates and resource estimates as time goes on)...

     

    But I have to agree, the 2013 goal was a weak reed BEFORE all the delaying tactics from the Chinese. Now its just not realistic.

     

    I really don't see where the thorium will be a problem for GWM, its been in the mix and a focus of planning from day one. So long as GWM has the backing of the SA nuclear regulators, and permitting in hand to mine, process and store the thorium, its just something which is a normal part of their operation.

     

    I have maintained for a long time that LCM has yet to experience anything approaching a "normal" quarter. It has either been operating in competition with a wide-open Chinese plan to flood the market with cheap rare earths - OR - the phase 2 Chinese plan to constrict supplies (meaning that LCM, like all other potential competitors, went from a losing battle caused by Chinese price subsidies to a losing battle caused by inability to acquire working stocks of rare earths controlled by China). Whether LCM will or won't earn a profit has always depended on GWM acquiring its own independent, reliable source for feedstock, which of course awaits Steen's completion. Until those objective condtions change, LCM is just waiting, most of its capabilities idling and its capacity utilized at too low a level to provide a profit. So, while it is indeed true that LCM's new furnace line capacity MUST ultimately generate profits, we should NOT expect that to happen until some time AFTER Steen is shipping them feedstock (which we are agreed probably will NOT be in 2013, though I think it MIGHT be in 2014, though I will grant could well slip to 2015).

     

    I do not (have not) suggested to anyone that they invest in GWM or any other company without first apprising themselves of all the information they can find, and giving each stock a lot of thought. The rare earth sector is perhaps uniquely difficult to quantify and comprehend, and for that reason alone I would suggest that anyone contemplating making an investment do their due diligence AND educate themselves to a functional level of comprehension of the very arcane mining process and market dynamics. If one reads through a lot of the commentary here and on other sites and finds the posts incomprehensible, then that is a clear sign that more self-education and research is needed. Being able to read through an annual report and parse the finances is just the raw beginning, and assumptions that the rare earth and strategic mineral mining business resembles precious metal mining (or ANY other market situation) can lead one into ruin!

     

    As for holding thorugh the $15m issue for GWM, that seems to be at least primarily a moot point now. The stock took a mild hit approximating the amount of dilution already. This needs, of course, to be added to the other data in any forward-looking investment decision process, but it appears to have already had its primary impact on share price.

     

    I have been actively trading GWM for the past year or so, but I am currently sold out of trading stock, and holding just my core position. I consider current prices too high to buy at, but also too low to take profits from. I might start accumulating additional trading shares (my core allocation is full of low average cost shares) if the stock drops into the $.50's again, which I frankly thought might happen last week. A market reaction drop due to dilution can often be a high multiple of the dilution itself, but this did not occur this time. It might yet happen, of course. If I am able to acquire trading shares in the $.50's, it will be with the plan to sell them off in the $.60's, moving any remainders from the trading blocs into an enlarged and lower-cost core holding.

     

    My investment thesis for GWM has for years been to follow this path, pulling profits from the upslope while accumulating a gradually growing core investment with a long term horizon (2015 or so, currently).
    30 Oct 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    This is a detailed breakdown. The difference in the GW timeline we have could be pretty small the way I read it. Oddly enough, we differ more on Moly where I am in the rare position of being more optimistic about Moly. I think Moly is a 2013 story. They have too clear a path and too much ability to raise funds to be later than that IMO.

     

    But with or without Moly, if GW spills into 2014 their burn rate creates problems. Junior traders have always focused on share count with explorers for the pop they seek in the trade. But in looking at producers on the mine life cycle graph, I think the burn rate and the compensation in particular becomes the bigger issue. GW is building the share count and needs a consolidation because of it. This will hit the stock hard no matter how they sell the idea. The market history on consolidations before production supports that point.

     

    But the core problem is the compensation and burn rate relative to the earnings (or in GW's case the losses). It's simple math. Moly looks like a joke to most stock pickers since it trades at a 150 PE. But the key from a junior perspective is they are managing the burn rate through Silmet. And if you believe they will be the low cost producer, it is easy to see how an investor can hold them without leverage and ignore the ups and downs till production. I wouldn't do that because I don't trust them. But trusting them is a separate judgment cal IMO.

     

    Now look how fast GW goes through cash on hand without putting the furnaces in LCM; without doing anything above refurbishing the Steen entrance. Then look how the costs jump if GW puts construction or even infrastructure in at Steen; fits LCM with the new furnaces; or starts paying for the concentrator at Steen. Add in the usual additional compensation executives get for progress in a junior and you need massive earnings to offset the issue.

     

    But even the earnings side seems capped to me. LCM currently only turns a profit if we back out their portion of the company compensation. Perhaps the furnaces help down the road but it's hard to say without disclosure and since LCM has been doing little earnings wise since it was acquired. And the Steen picture is far worse IMO. At one time it was thought Steen would not turn a profit but was worth it for the feed stock. Now it is far more relied upon and has scoping reports and IAEA comments that suggest great expenses. I mean if you just go in the SRK VB posted you can see all of the reports and costs tied to them that will be required.

     

    And I still see the Fusiah approach to the LAMP applying to Steen by any South African politico that wants to make a name for him or herself with the populous. And the result at Steen if it happens is big trouble. The IAEA notes are bad and if an earnings set aside for waste and decommissioning is required it will be expensive. The thorium storage license is a good thing, but it will not solve everything and Steen is a lot of thorium.

     

    Overall I think GW put the minimum at $15 million because they need at least that much and the market won't give them much more. That is a bad raise IMO because it does not show light at the end of anything. It is buying shares that will face another issuance in the near future. On top of that the 2013 timetable is not based on the facts as I see them, it seems based more on the hope required to make GW work smoothly. Once juniors start doing this type of story telling the history is trouble IMO.

     

    I know I could be wrong of course and I hold no position in GW and won't in the future. But I think there is more near term downside for the stock and I need to see some big surprises to change my long term bearish view on the stock.

     

    I'm no smarter than the next guy. And while I've made money on juniors in the past, I'm a better lawyer in life than I am a junior stock picker. But my experience is making me very bearish on GW and I wish the holders lots of luck. The best I can suggest is look at the reasoning on both sides and if your own answers to these questions say hold or buy I respect that. I'm just trying to be honest about my view. That's all.
    30 Oct 2011, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, we have been close on most of these topics. Often I just layout my thinking for the benefit of others (not trying to sway your decisions), using your fact-rich comments as a basis.

     

    GWM: I use the odds I mentioned earlier to help pick which stocks to gamble upon. Its not dissimilar from how good poker players compute whether or not to bet, how much, and at which point in which hand. I like the current odds (as a gamble) for GWM going forward, but I don't mistake them as being non-risky by any means of course. If I had no bank of cashed profits - or current low average cost core holding in GWM - I would probably choose to wait until the current negotiation phase (at least) were more advanced before entering a position (unless I was daytrading, in which case it gets to be more complicated).

     

    My read on the $15m is that it was just large enough to cover their needs for the next quarter, but not so large as to ignite a stockholder rebellion (whereas $30m would still have been "too little" and might well have cost the stock more than a 9 cent hit which set it back about a week's worth of trading). I don't have whatever numbers they used to make the calculation, of course, nor the benefit of their detailed thinking, but were I managing the company I would have made a timeline chart and looked for a sweet spot where the least amount of dilution would yield the maximum time gained WITHIN whatever time frame they determined they needed to successfully wrap up their negotiations. We can roll our own estimates backward from the 15mill, of course, and arrive at both some hint of how long the negotiations are estimated by management to take (months, seems like to me, though not much more than 2 or 3) plus an idea of the burn rate they anticipate over the same period (looks like about $3million per month to me, assuming they added some small breathing space, which I believe they did).

     

    A reverse split/stock consolidation does seem likely, but only if they can work their way back up to around $1 per share. They backed away from the prospect when the stock was in the $.80's and $.70's. This might also constitute an insight into their future plans, as they check some important bullet points off their to-do list. NC completion and a pop in resource size and life of mine would be one of those, as would completing mine remediation and signing up a jv partner with solid funding. A scenario in which these things happen (and the stock pops above $1 once again) are not difficult to imagine... But indeed might well be followed by a consolidation plan (already authorized, lest we forget) to get the company listed on a major American exchange.

     

    I have been critical of GWM's spending myself in the past, chiefly when they laid out big money for junior exploration projects with distant time horizons. I can remember when you and I discussed this very possibility, perhaps just after you sold off GWM, pointing to a time in the not too distant future (from those critical comments) when GWM would dearly wish they had those millions still sitting in the bank rather than expended on risky, very speculative claims and expensive long term joint ventures unrelated to their core corporate goals. (I won't link those comments from months past here, but I suspect most of the regulars on this blog remember them).

     

    GWM's management compensation is less worrisome to me than their penchant for thinking of their past role as a wildcatting junior explorer, rather than their current role as a pre-production miner, or most importantly, as their FUTURE role as a producer. Part of the problem with the compensation plan, for instance, is that it is based upon the junior explorer model when it SHOULD be based upon that of a full fledged producer with a mature revenue stream. Perhaps it is just another example of their being at "that awkward stage", but I would have hoped they would have been more forward thinking and less backward looking.

     

    I view LCM currently as a POTENTIAL profit center rather than one that can hope to make money before they finish Steen. Anyone requiring that LCM become profitable as SilMet has become should also remember that SilMet HAS a reliable source of feedstock from MCP, whereas LCM still must subsist on crumbs from the Chinese table. I will be examining the first quarter after Steen starts shipping to LCM very carefully for their financial results, but even then it may be too early should they experience startup problems...

     

    MCP: Now that they have thrown an additional mountain of capital into their buildout effort to gain 3 months, I too consider their chances for late 2013 startup improved... But not assured. My primary reason for thinking that, just as with GWM, their timelines were too rosy had a lot to do with a personal history of being involved with building large plants (delays just seem to grow out of the foundations like mushrooms), but also with the gestation period for creating large facilities which are based upon technology which has never, ever, been implemented at that level and scale before. Its one thing to make their hybrid old/new facility create the light rare earths needed to fulfill their contracts (make some small profits possible), and something else entirely to do so with a brand new facility where the expectation is that they can run virtually ANY type of ore or mix of elements (which claims they continue to trumpet). I just think these are some very ambitious goals which will either have to be modified (simplified greatly, say, and limited to a single ore type and recovery of the same high percentage light re mix) OR the timeline stretched to accomodate the inevitable problems. Since I AM long MCP, I hope this does not happen, but I do really expect one or the other to occur. In the case that they just stick to their knitting and do what they do best, ie, crank out the top 3 or 4 components from their basic ore, they will have the best opportunity to meet a late 2013 production date.... If they go ahead with their ambitious goals (and their history with Hitachi, Sumitomo and even the DOE shows that they are prone to this behavior) then I think late 2014 may well be more realistic.
    30 Oct 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    Headline in today's FT: "China set to aid Europe bail-out." Also, "Beijing eyes investment of up to $100bn in EFSF." Not a ton of money based on what's needed, but still helpful.

     

    Lynas up 2.5¢, Alkane down 2.5¢, Arafura flat, Galaxy Res. up 3.5¢, Northern Min. up 1¢, Greenland Min. up .5¢ in Oz last night.
    28 Oct 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    Julius Malema led a march of several thousand protestors thru SA's financial district calling for the nationalization of the country's mines. This is being reported in today's financial papers. Sorry.
    28 Oct 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Just wish to clarify something I posted a few days back re: Lynas (I know we value accuracy and integrity here ;) )...
    The market has not priced in a refusal of permit to Lynas, as I contended to AQ the other day. I meant to say they have priced alot of fear over the matter into the pps and only to stress that they certainly have not priced approval into it. Just for accuracy's sake!
    thanks

     

    Hope this finds you all very well!!
    28 Oct 2011, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For those of us long UCore (UURAF):

     

    http://buswk.co/tIXqlb

     

    By an odd coincidence, stock is up over 15% this morning.
    28 Oct 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on LYSCF at $1.40.

     

    Lurking with buy orders for IAALF...
    28 Oct 2011, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I thought GW would say more today about the PP but I'm not really finding any good links. I did find this:
    http://bit.ly/sfw6al

     

    This guy is guessing (like everyone else) but he does have a basis for the guess so I think it's worth the short read.
    28 Oct 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    I know metallurgy is different for each deposit but can you give me some background on how Lynas went about securing their expertise in the extraction/seperation process. Was it in house via individual hires or did they need Chinese or other outsider expertise?

     

    Best,
    Matt
    28 Oct 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I hate to break up the "Chi got one right" party so quick (thanks for the kind remarks), but I have underestimated the time and hassle that has gone with the AELB approval of the LAMP and the ease of the pre-operation license. I think this is the biggest hurdle Lynas faces and I am very bullish on Lynas especially after they get the pre-op license.

     

    Lynas has used Rhodia for outside expertise in separation, processing and extraction. Rhodia is the French company that essentially taught China rare earth processing. They have two processing plants in China and plan to re-open the Rhodia plant in France in the near future. Lynas mentioned some progress in the Rhodia/Lynas relationship in the annual report they released last night.

     

    Lynas cut a lower priced off take agreement with Rhodia for the expertise. It was Lynas' first customer agreement and while it has built a 5 % discount into Lynas' projected revenue numbers, it may well be very much worth it IMO. It beats having to give away a percentage (through a JV); It is the sale of a partially separated concentrate so it should provide early revenue (during ramp-up); and it is a clear top notch rare earth separating/ chemical company.

     

    The North American "experts" doubt Lynas' technology to some extent. They are not offering any reason or proof as to why from what I see. In fact, the progress suggests this part of the Lynas story is firmly in place and going well. My approach is to hold till AELB approval of the LAMP and then add heavily on pull backs. AELB is not in Lynas' control so I'm waiting it out with a large position already. After that I think the Rhodia/ Lynas relationship is a great trade. But for now it's just something to watch.
    28 Oct 2011, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    I'm OK with a private placement. Maybe GWM will get some activist investors (preferably not Pinetree!) to guide management. Blackrock or glencore types!
    Frankly, the current management team is small potatoes and it shows. Calling for a strategic meeting and then calling it off at the last minute is with a perfunctory statement is bad form.
    What little credibility they had has been blown. They went from "we do what we say" to "we don't know what the hell we are doing so we can't say."
    28 Oct 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    ""we don't know what the hell we are doing so we can't say.""

     

    That was my laugh for the day - good one! :-))

     

    HardToLove
    28 Oct 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Exact same reaction HT... an LOL!
    28 Oct 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Every once in awhile I ask myself, what kind of company is this ceramic knifemaker, really? Today I tracked the company back to this. The person handling the changes to their website submissions uses an email address at tencent, which is free. This is NOT a company website. (Chincera is a GQD name for the ceramic knives). I even used a Chinese computer translator to try to get some info. It looks like GQD reserved some website addresses, like the kind of thing one can do on Go Daddy here in the USA. Why wouldn't an entity that well known and established have a real company website?
    http://bit.ly/uObR8B
    28 Oct 2011, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Sadly this is all I can find, same thing as when I looked last time. Some of the snippets on the google search say that the Chinese government approved GDQ's $30 Mil investment in Steen ( I don't know if it's $30 Mil USD or CD, or RMB!!):
    http://bit.ly/vFHzD9/

     

    http://bit.ly/shZGGT
    28 Oct 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It has always seemed logical to me that GQD would contribute 25% of the seperation plant ($30m x .25 = $7.5m) plus their expertise, and get 25% of that plant (but not of the entire mine and its facilities).

     

    Should that be the case (and none of us really knows, of course), then GWM would still need to come up with the remainder.,
    28 Oct 2011, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Any comments on NTUs recent activities report? I liked the table in-situ values / REO prices. Looks pretty good compared to other miners. But there resource so far seems to be made up of mainly yttrium.
    http://bit.ly/uXRXFO

     

    Here is - Rare Element Reports Initial 2011 Drilling Results From Bear Lodge
    http://bit.ly/tdSrBH

     

    I realize there is a bias against REE here, but can anyone look at the two reports NTU vs REE and comment? REE mainly has lights but seems to be finding more and more heavies (in association with yttrium.) So there is potential, plus REE has/ is close to infrastructure.
    So balancing all these variables, still hard to decide which is the better long term investment. Been thinking about adding more, but its hard to
    decide between the contenders NTU, REE, TASXF
    29 Oct 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Great questions jimp.
    Rare Element Resources is a LREE mine. It is getting a lot of pumping from press releases, the North American media, and the "experts". And while the project does seem to have a better than expected ore grade and HREE distribution it is a long way from any production. And even though Rare Element Resources has gold and access to good infrastructure, it is only feasible if it produces BEFORE Ce and La go into oversupply. And once they go into oversupply I think it will have a weak outlook.

     

    Overall, I see this as an "egghead stock" science guys and the media seem to love it, but they never give good focused or practical reasons beyond the railroad benefit (that Tasman has as well). Meanwhile, business ignores it as the "filecam stock" we call it around here as a joke. My experience tells me to follow business actions and the practical views.

     

    Tasman and NTU are much better because they are both xenotime deposits. This ore is truly HREE rich and it has been processed in the passed. Tasman has good infrastructure and is a feasible. Earlier I doubted it's value due to it's low ore grade. But considering the benefits of solvent extraction on xenotime and it's infrastructure benefits as well, this is a company to watch IMO. If you are confident in the macro picture, this is not a bad late term explorer (according to the mine life cycle chart I use). One word of caution, the Swedish krona is getting stronger. If TASXF starts to develop and construct, this strong currency will increase the costs.

     

    NTU remains the best of these three. Drill results are fine and the yttrium is a plus to me. The yttrium element has a good outlook and the HREE's are great. Ninety percent of the product they want to mine is not at risk to go into oversupply into the future. That is a fantastic outlook for a REE junior. And the optimism is supported by business as well. Both Lynas and the banks remain committed to this micro cap miner. That is a very good sign as well.

     

    The stock is still and early explorer play on the mine life cycle and long term (5-10 years) the stock is sure to produce IMO. It may be a while before this thing really pays off but it is great on a risk/reward measurement. I will buy it when the economy looks stronger and on lows in REE prices. Right now if you are comfortable buying stocks this is a great choice IMO.
    29 Oct 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Excellent Chi. Thanks for breaking down all of the issues. This helps give some clarity.
    30 Oct 2011, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (142) | Send Message
     
    Chihawk: the REE-bearing minerals of interest at Tasman's Norra Karr project are zirconium silicates, including eudialyte, catapleiite and others, not xenotime. There is little zircon present, and the Th and U content is very low. Initial work indicates excellent recovery rates.
    30 Oct 2011, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Gareth Hatch,
    I appreciate your correction. I had some Olserum information with xenotime mentioned, but clearly jimp's priority is Norra Karr in making an investment decision. I think part of my mistake was the high recovery rates. Is there any reason why they are so high? Are these more commonly separated minerals than I realize? Is it a new process or are they just more responsive to solvent extraction? This seems like a big issue to me with Tasman because the low ore grades makes high recovery rates critical to me. I appreciate your thoughts.
    30 Oct 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Welcome to TB's REE Concentrator!

     

    I hope you make frequent visits and find us as useful as I'm sure we'll find your contributions.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2011, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Is the consensus growing that GWM is a dud? Like a lot of folks here
    GWM is one of my longest held rare earth stocks. From the reading here it seems like we are in "transition" for better or worse. I do not mind holding, but with stock down 10% on friday when all the others doing quite well it has me wondering. Should I get out, or hold longer?
    29 Oct 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2202) | Send Message
     
    I wouldn't mind buying a little if they would be adequately capitalized for supporting their far flung responsibilities and if the management is focused on what is crucial, whenever that would be.
    I received a mailer the other day saying that Billingsley the Chairman will explain his case study on November 29.
    http://bit.ly/oeZHM4/
    29 Oct 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/v8CLNd

     

    Lynas Quarterly cashflow report. Note that their exchange rate went positive this quarter...

     

    http://bit.ly/uPWUqI

     

    Lynas Quarterly Report.
    30 Oct 2011, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This is a bad quarterly report IMO. I sold half at LYC $1.27.

     

    The delay of first feed to Q1 2012 and the profit in H1 2012 is not that bad a delay. But it is obvious Lynas is not in control and progress is stalling. Malaysia is proving to be a shameful failure as a government and partner. I will buy back a lot more shares and at a higher price after AELB approval. But at this stage I cannot invest at the levels I am at with Malaysia being this incompetent and influential on the investment. Bottom line is as a fundamental investor you can't ignore fundamental factors. I see clear losses ahead based on my current view so my investment holding must reflect that. I still see Lynas as a great stock long term. I understand why I held it till now and I understand why I am keeping half. But the other half requires pre-op approval for me. Good luck to all.
    30 Oct 2011, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Hi Chihawk-

     

    I liked your questions in the Lynas call today. I totally agree with your point...at this stage of a properly managed project we should have clearer timelines and milestones. I realize NC is not the project manager but he should give less vague answers. His attitude/arrogance annoys me when I think WE are the shareholders here.
    The two salient points I picked up from the call were:
    1) all aspects of the POL have now been submitted and are awaiting confirmation from the AELB to confirm all is complete. NC said they are expecting this confirmation this week. To me, this implies that some aspects had been left wanting in past submissions, but Lynas has now addressed them (I hope, favorably!).
    2) They don't really have a 'concrete' long term waste management plan except to say they have approval to store stuff for years and they are actively pursuing solutions to get rid of the stuff. This is the thing that has bothered me the most. Politically, it would be far better to have an accepted, practical solution, rather than 'trust us'. I suspect this will have to be addressed soon.

     

    I was pleased to hear delays of weeks, not months. I had been told by someone on-site to expect longer delays, so that's good.

     

    Having said all that, I am surprised you would pull out now. Judging by today's market reaction (before the call) I feel like most of the bad news (regarding delays mainly) have now been factored in, and, as you say, their not so bad. BTW, if you buy back in tomorrow, you will likely nett about 7% on the transaction (if you did indeed sell at 1.27...) :)
    31 Oct 2011, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the comment Freo.
    I think the call was much better than the Quarterly Report. Lynas deserves a firm kick in the ass for the report. They appear too pleased with themselves for a project with still a lot of work to do. Quarterly's should not look like annual's and this was too pretty with too much vagueness for me.

     

    NC clarified a lot in the call. I thought NC put real effort into the call and I like his answers. I know some feel the confidence is arrogance or slick. I disagree. The fact is he is the smartest guy in rare earths by far and his information proves it time and again. I do not require some false modesty if he can back the confidence up and he does. I find Lifton to be arrogant. NC is more just knowledgeable.

     

    What I find striking is NC prepares for these calls far more than other CEOs. The preparation is light years ahead of Smith with Moly or Engdahl with GW. Those guys just asked for millions of dollars and did it with a disinterest and minimal preparation. I know the Crown stuff was bad, but on the calls NC is far more respectful and engaged than others.

     

    I gave Nic tough questions and pressed him and he holds his own and answers every question as much as he can. And the questions come from all directions and the answers are immediate. Where his information is less he gives all he can so that I can see how the rest is limited by the circumstances. And to allow us to go through the queue multiple times even if I press him is great.

     

    To answer questions that way takes great skill and command IMO. And it's Nic, not I'll pass this and that to some sidekick type answer. All of that is super top shelf in my book. Frankly, I generally find the critique of NC amusing when I compare it to the substance.

     

    Here's the problem, few listen to the call. They read Q1 first feed and H1 production and say "delay and vague" and bail. I sold half because of that. But I think the delay is minimal and I feel Lynas is far more in control based on the call than I thought when I read the report.

     

    I've sidestepped some losses and will buy back over the next few weeks most likely. The biggest thing I take from the call is:
    -Approval in November IMO
    -Minimal delay.
    -Lynas not getting pushed around by politics and progressing well in the project going around the political issue. Loved the pre-commissioning work going on while the piping and wiring is finished. Also like the crew completion and start up preparation.
    -NC with a clear and detailed understanding of the rare earth industry (more than ever and best equipped to lead).

     

    Bottom line: Lynas is a great stock in an ordinary market.
    31 Oct 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Bought the half sold tonight on the ASX. Two things. First NC said in the second call production is set for late Q1 to early Q2 2012. This comment firms the early Q1 first feed comment and is much better than the reports H1 2012 production comment in the Quarterly Report.

     

    Also taking the calls as a whole I feel the blogs and Malaysian internet press are making AELB's approval look far more political than I think it is. NC took a lot of comments on the topic and clearly feels that is not the situation. On this type of subject I discount blogs and press and prefer to focus on the company actions. Lynas could do a better job on the topic still but the issue seems grossly overblown when you look at AELB and Lynas actions. The hold up seems to be construction more than politics IMO. And the current construction delays while annoying are very manageable.

     

    Also, the stock is holding strong after a sharp drop in markets. The shorts are not moving in and the speculative Lynas is outperforming trade. I think the market may be looking at the Lynas near term upside based on the calls. Lastly, the overall market may be improving: strong prolonged rises with quick sharp pullbacks are bullish as a whole.
    31 Oct 2011, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good morning everyone! Some not so fantastic news to start your day. Ugh!

     

    http://bit.ly/tJFKF7

     

    http://bit.ly/tlHG7I

     

    http://bit.ly/twWA77

     

    ...yet another buying opportunity! Hope everyone has lots of dry powder on hand.
    31 Oct 2011, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That last one is pretty old, egg.

     

    On my part I am really not surprised that Lynas is encountering a last minute delay, as I have stated repeatedly, this was a potential occurence. Large projects breed these, and particularly when the finish line draws near. This also applies to the Malay politicians and regulators. The politicians dither because the hot potato, even an extremely valuable one, IS a hot potato and therefore they view any delay as an opportunity for it to cool off some. The regulators are hidebound bureucrats, for whom delay is a valuable commodity which simultaneously strengthens their power while it potentially feathers their nest.

     

    Logically, there really is no way for the Malays to do final inspections on incomplete production lines, so forgetting all the stuff about the fundamental nature of politicians and bureaucrats, until Lynas can finish the LAMP, the whole train of events is delayed by them, so perhaps I am being a bit premature with my comments about the other side... Which implies of course that even should LAMP get their construction finished and their equipment in place, we may still have a period of time for the politicians to dither and the regulators to feather their nests...

     

    I have seen 2 notes thus far about Lynas' estimates for startup, one Q1 2012, the other "first half" 2012. Needless to say, there is a deal of difference between these two estimates. Did anyone who waded through the whole call note down what, exactly, the guidance on this key topic really was?
    31 Oct 2011, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Thanks egg. I was thinking about selling last week, but I did not pull the trigger... my mistake. I am selling today. I will try to get back in at .75. Trips comment below about not being able to approve the plant until after its completed takes away from my concerns for a missed pop with a surprise approval from the government.
    31 Oct 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    FPL, TB: I am not so sure about this thinking. They were able to identify concerns for recommendations while incomplete, so why wouldn't these things be able to be be "brought up to speed" while plant still under construction? If items to be addressed are part of near-term construction and not things which could only be verified after operable level is reached, there would still be risk in missing a pop. I cannot see a scenario where Lynas is at .75 again unless news comes out that pre-op license is rejected outright. It was not my understanding, nor do comments by NC and others indicate that pre-op license cannot be procured until plant is complete. That may be true, but I have never read nor heard anything which suggested that to me until now...this conversation.
    Also, as stated by Freo in reference to CC, if NC is telling truth...he expects "confirmation" of POL (that is the phrase we are using for "the list" I assume) by the AELB as soon as this week? I asked for clarification of that earlier. What exactly "confirmation" meant and to clarify that this was in reference to "the 11 thing list" or something else.?
    This NC comment need clarification to make presumtions re: pps in near-term. A positive announcement this week would hold up any near-term downdraft. I am trying to figure out myself what this was referring to...
    31 Oct 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Having identified areas to BE inspected is not synonymous with actually having functional facilities TO inspect. Just looking over plans and saying "Yep, that might work, here's your pre-op permit, good luck," is not the way its done (except in corrupt places where all that matter is some baksheesh for the right government functionary, of course).

     

    Its impossible to inspect construction which is not there yet, though of course there are building code checks which occur at regular intervals as those phases of the construction are brought to the necessary stage. "Operating" permits need something more, like functioning plumbing, electric, and equipment located where its supposed to be, meeting all the requirments its supposed to, and with all the upstream and downstream components matching the spec's and ready to run.

     

    Given the political situation (and the involvement of things like international nuclear regulatory groups), shortcuts would be counter-indicated.

     

    The question about waste disposal (which is a key potential sticking point in any such project, even ones NOT involving mildly radioactive waste) is in the Government's court, but they already told everyone that they will NOT comment on Lynas' waste disposal plan UNTIL the plant is complete and all the bullet points inspected and found good.

     

    When building a chemical processing plant and refinery, its really hard to test things to the standards applied in this case until it reaches the stage where ALL the equipment is in place and ALL the construction is complete. Otherwise they are likely to get someone hurt, and give a new meaning to "toxic spill".

     

    The punch list for the AEL folks is but a small part of the things which must be inspected prior to issuing permits... Given the mention of delays while contractors wait for the arrival of necessary equipment to be installed, and the accompanying work to plumb, wire and test said equipment, its clear that, though the punchlist may be checked off on some or even ALL the AEL-specific items, the entire plant still has a way to go.

     

    I think they are over 90% finished, but that's just my WAG at the problem.
    31 Oct 2011, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    My pleasure FPA. I think that TB's comment about about the completion of construction refers to Phase I construction only, if that is of any help.
    31 Oct 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    This is what NC said in the Aug 10 conference call:

     

    He talks a bit about the problems in Malaysia regarding public outcry, Lynas' failure to address that appropriately and that he believes that it Lynas has taken the appropriate steps in dealing with that now. Continuing on with the Malaysia theme, he says

     

    "We believe that operations in Malaysia will have first feed into the kiln in the 4th quarter 2011." Then he briefly refers to the IAEA recommendations and adds that "We are VERY confident that the current requirements from the IAEA, combined with actual deliverables that we need to do will all be met such that we can have start-up of the operation, first feed to the kiln, in the 4th quarter of 2011."

     

    Then he discusses the award of the Phase II contract, the increase in production it will provide, blah, blah, blah ....the Malawi acquisition, etc., etc.
    31 Oct 2011, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. In this case, the additional work for phase 2 will just use the same process already in place by that time, so any additional permitting needed could be expected to fly through at that point.

     

    I believe the "pre-op" permit also requires an eventual "operating" permit downstream, presumably after trials have been run and any modifications made to correct any flaws which might be found.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    On the 11 things listed only 3 are required for production -Pre-operation approval. These issues focus on waste storage (solid and discarded waste water) and decommissioning. These issues do not require the plant to be fully built. AELB is evaluating these issues based on plans already submitted. After production the actual activities are evaluated for the Operational License. But this process occurs while Lynas is producing with earnings so it is less of a risk to the stock.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wellsaid, Chi. I believe you are correct. The De-Commissioning item in particular will have to be based almost solely upon plans rather than any physical inspection.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Oooh! So it is, TB. My apologies for that. How on earth did I manage that. Too bad it's Halloween and not April Fools Day. I could've just played that off as an April Fool. Instead I'll just confess to a Monday morning brain fart.

     

    I agree that this not a tremendous surprise. It's something that we've thrown around here on the REE Concentrator at least a couple of times I think. For my part, though my heart remained hopeful, the latest period of silence, with no reports of significant progress on construction at the LAMP, has had me expecting this to some degree.

     

    I'm listening to the August 10th call now...
    31 Oct 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No worries, mate.

     

    As for the progress reports on LAMP, they have been uniformly "...on budget and on schedulte..." up to this point since the IAE pop-quiz.

     

    I found this as mildly surprising, at first, then thought back to NC's loose comments last month that hinted at a delay...

     

    If that was our "update", LOL, it was truly a fumbled attempt.
    31 Oct 2011, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): 50K @ $0.649 at the open.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    [LYSDY] I did not hear the call. Did NC convincingly state ecpectation of confirmations from AELB regarding acceptance of POL terms (the 11 things list) this week? I read Freo's post above and looking for clarification. If true, that may prop up pps temporarily.
    Anyone have a guess at what point on timeline the Pre-op would come?
    I can see, Chi, your reasoning, but to me, as long as you believe there are a few positive events coming...you should expect pps to be held up until production. The real trading events to support pps until my investment pays off are news driven and are acceptance of what Freo refers to as POL, 11 things covered on-site, pre-op license, waste management, and license to import perhaps. If one doesn't believe these things will happen...then that person shouldn't be invested in Lynas. If you do believe they will happen, then you can expect pps to be supported until production and the real payoff.
    31 Oct 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    NC was asked about the AELB approval in the context of weeks versus months and is it regulatory versus a political issue. It should be noted Mike Harrowell an analyst with BBY told the FT earlier “If it was a regulatory decision, Lynas should be able to jump through any hoops. But if it is a political decision, then the risk of a more negative outcome increases.”

     

    NC was clear that he saw the AELB decision as regulatory and coming soon (weeks). He also said to a later question that he felt AELB is not causing a delay and seemed to blame the lengthened timeline on construction finishing work noting the build looks very complete to the eye but there is wiring and piping to finish the project. Note this must be light duty stuff at this stage so I don't think it will be a big delay. Nic also noted pre-commissioning work has started while the building finishes so the remaining work has to be minor IMO.

     

    A separate Q tried to connect the approval with Malaysian election and NC was clear that he saw no connection between the two events. I found the entire discussion reassuring and in a separate question an investor noted approval would need to be by December for the early first feed to work. Nic was comfortable with the comment and lead me to feel this looks very likely in November.

     

    On Freo's second point Nic was not concrete about the waste plan. He was clear that the plan was fully submitted and that the waste issue comes into play further down the road. But I think NC wants to keep this discussion within AELB. This is likely so the "Stop Lynas" types will not take the ball and run with it. My guess is we get the details from AELB after approval and I am fine with that.

     

    Part of the sale I made was due to the market having run as well. I think this market will still be range bound to some extent, and the Lynas report makes them a shorters target on the ASX on this pull back. I think tonight will be down on the ASX off the negative Wall St. lead. It is true I will pay more for LYC after the POL (Pre-Operation License). But even if that happens I think I will be paying more for a stock with less risk. Such a purchase would not bother me. Though the call did make me feel this risk is in investor minds more than it is a true risk.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Rain, I don't believe that Lynas ever stated "...this week", however, my post above contains NC's quote from the Aug. 10 conference call in which he states that they are VERY confident that all requirements and deliverables will be completed such that 1st feed to kiln will be in the 4th quarter of 2011.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi: I think the point of clarification I needed was in regards to NC believing AELB approval could be in a few weeks then. The AELB approval he is reffering to is the Pre-op license right? If so, this doesn't jive with the whole "pre-op can't be done until plant completion" thing...unless you believe NC to be lying.
    Or do I have the definition of AELB approval incorrect?
    Thanks
    31 Oct 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    hey gang,
    no power/no heat here so last of the battery juice. :( Just saw that the offering for GWMGF is .63 - which it traded right to there after the news.
    There has been great commentary on GW and Lynas and I wanted to say that I appreciate all the efforts to write such eloquent and informative posts. It was great catching up on them.
    Power supposed to be back by wed nite. We'll see....
    31 Oct 2011, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I won't throw rocks at anyone who elects to sell a stock, particularly like Lynas, and particularly after I recently took profits at $1.40. True, I have another nice block of Lynas which I wanted to sell when it hits $1.50+, and which I will probably have to hold onto for longer than I would like...

     

    Trading on Lynas on the ASX was really skimpy today, with volume barely half what it has been running. True, we saw a real hit to the stock price (we saw a similar hit last quarter when they reported, too)... And the news was lackluster and disappointing.

     

    Though not the drama queen we see in MCP, Lynas is DEFINITELY a volatile stock, and one given to fits when the news cycle and even minor troubles run against them. Those in a position to take profits at this time may well (depending on the individual situation, which of course will be unique) be doing the right thing for them. As for Chi's announcement, we should remember that he trades the stock in Sydney on the ASX, which means that he has options not available (particularly regarding timing) to those who do not trade on the ASX. Personally I appreciate him bringing us this information, including his very personal trading decisions. This is a valuable gift. Thanks, Chi.

     

    Rain: I tend to agree with your thinking, and in fact I would not be surprised to see Lynas do better on the American ADRs and pinks than it did on the ASX.

     

    There is an important background development which impacts these commodity-based equity investments, ie, Japan's strong intervention driving down the yen (and elevating large trading partners like the American and Australian $). This alone could have caused a general drop in these stocks, with Lynas particularly affected (they receive the huge majority of their financing and cash flow from Japan).

     

    Japanese exporters will take this opportunity (which I suspect will be short-lived) to move mountains of cash and goods, improving their pricing power in their target markets. I would look for them to book loads of orders during this period as a result. Needless to say, this could increase demand from them (THE prime ex-China consumer of rare earths) for the products soon to flow from the LAMP...

     

    So its a mix of news, mostly mildly negative, but with some interesting prospects as well.
    31 Oct 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    TB, a good analysis of the situation.

     

    In US$, Lynas closed at $1.28 in Oz last night, and that's where LYSCF is right now. I figure in the REE sector, Lynas is far and away the best bet, so as far as I'm concerned, another LAMP delay of 2 or 3 months is only a hiccup.
    31 Oct 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF) Prices offering @$0.63.

     

    =================
    The Offered Shares will be subject to a four month hold period under applicable Canadian securities legislation. The Company plans to use the proceeds for the continued development of its Steenkampskraal project in South Africa as well as for general corporate purposes.
    =================

     

    http://mwne.ws/uUtliz

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2011, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm I would have thought the offering price would be between .50 and .55.
    31 Oct 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    There's an implication in this offering price - some high expectations based on ... what? Non-public information? The small size and some expected time-line to make this a reasonable price? Plans to "pump" later and dump? But 4 months lock-up would seem to put that activitity *after* some significant progress in SSK, JV, NI-43-101, etc.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting, and yes, surprisingly high price. Explains the lack of a strong reaction to today's down elevator for the $ and commodity stocks in general...

     

    Let's see, that price would be a "normal" offer for a stock running about $.80. A 4 month lockup would imply a growth over that period to at least that share price, PLUS a nice profit (again, I would think about 20% minimum)...

     

    Call it $1+ in 4 months.
    31 Oct 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Wait and see if the offering sells. I suspect they prepared that offering and price when the stock was fifteen to twenty cents higher. (Only a few weeks ago.)
    The consultants get 5% on everything. It pays to be the packager and promoter of a private offering. What a racket.
    31 Oct 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Please see above comment/reply regarding Lynas and hoping for feedback..this discussion needs to be continued. Meant to post down here. Thanks ;)
    31 Oct 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Great Western's last offering did not fill. I suppose it's because it was Canadian only (because GWM was too cheap to file with the SEC and deal with the ~ $250,000 fee to allow US investors an equal crack). Anyone know if this offering is any different, in that one would have to go through a Canadian agent to buy some?

     

    I have a queasy feeling this offering will not fill either.
    31 Oct 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    We're on the same page, Maya.
    31 Oct 2011, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how many underwriters they had before, but with three on board and the small size of the offering, I suspect they will complete it.

     

    They *do* have more positive things happening ATM - ovens on the way, mine refurb, a *supposed* JV for the concentrator, ... - so the combination of all these things should let it fill I would think.

     

    Add in the $2.xx price target ...

     

    I could certainly be wrong, but that's my thinking.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Oct 2011, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Maya and OG,
    I think you guys are right about the offering. But the next question is what price will they re-offer at if this fails? Would they go fifteen cents lower and adjust the share count to match the same funds raised? Perhaps now that the share price is this low in it's range, fifteen cents is too low a guess?
    Offer: 23,810,000 of common shares + Agents an option, up to an additional 3,571,500 Offered Shares @ $0.63= $17,250,345.
    So a re-offer of 35,938,220 total fully diluted shares offered @ $0.48 equals the same capital raise at fifteen cents less.
    And are you guys trying to trade around your insight? I think you guys have this well measured I just wonder if you find the issue worth trading.

     

    On the plus side, one has to see some positive in the share price holding up OK in a weak tape with a share price trading below the current offer.
    1 Nov 2011, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    You could be right if the share price rebounds, but even the most bullish view can't support the liquidity lost in buying shares with a four month hold period for a price higher than the open market right now. Closing is November 10 and I would say it fails if GW is not trading in the $0.70's by then based on the four month hold in rather uncertain markets.
    1 Nov 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    That's correct Maya, US Citizens are prohibited.
    1 Nov 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Chi: I once got creamed with GWM. But then later I got back in and then sold half at more than a 100% gain (for much less recovered than I lost when I got creamed). So forgetting the past, I'm now on house money and don't expect to sell GWM anytime in the near future, despite however the results are of this shelf offering.

     

    If I was trading GWM rather than holding long, I would have had a big pow wow with myself about whether or not to sell the moment this column reported the offering was coming (or, through reading it via email).

     

    Typically, when shelf offerings are made, the stock dips below the offering price, and in this hypothetical trade senario, I would have then bought back the shares at the cheaper price.

     

    What I am hoping for is that the remaining shares I do hold, will eventually make up for and maybe even surpass how much I lost.
    2 Nov 2011, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Thought so. Thanks, OyGee.
    2 Nov 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Can someone explain the effects if the offering didn't fill? Thanks
    31 Oct 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    I believe they would need to sweeten the deal.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its simple: GWM and the underwriters take in less money than they would like. Since GWM needs the money to operate, if the offer's income is zero, they are in deep guano. It is $10m, they can still do most of what they wanted to do, but for a shorter period of time.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    This would reduce the share dilution if they take less, but the offer price needs to trade at a discount or I think it will fail. My point is GW has to re-offer since the alternatives appear minimal because this was suppose to be a last resort. Add to that the fact that the cash on hand is gone and these guys admitted they are doing an offering in a bad market for it. So my conclusion is GW either jumps in price (unlikely with this news capping it) or they reoffer at a lower price and likely drag the share price down some in the short term IMO.
    2 Nov 2011, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. I would characterize that outcome as "deep guano", at least short term.
    2 Nov 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Did you Lynas heads see this? You won't like the spin.
    <The government vowed to cease all operations including the import of rare earth until the 11 conditions are thoroughly met.>
    http://bit.ly/uxEqTE/
    31 Oct 2011, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Old news, OG. Just more of the "...have you stopped beating your wife..." approach. Lynas knows they can't import ore until they get permission/permits, and there are no "operations" to cease since the plant has no operating permit (its still under construction).

     

    Free Malaysia is the fringe wacko's mouthpiece in Malaysia (has been since day 1) and is not a reliable source of information on this topic in any event.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    Request clarification TB:
    This is the first time the government announced it will cease all operations, is it not? I haven't seen that before. All operations. To me that would include construction would it not? They can't cease what they haven't instituted, other than to drag their feet on an approval. They can cease what has been progressing. That is how I would read it. Now the mouthpiece has to prove he is independent.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry, OG, but I just don't interpret what the rag Free Malaysia says as being "what the Malay government" says. And no, having built factories in the past, there is a deal of difference between "construction" and "operation", particularly when the burning topic on the table is "operating permits". If the government has, indeed, shut down all construction, THAT would be a headline, and something actionable if the Lynas recent conference calls had failed to mention it. I consider the likelihood of that outlandish claim by FM as having a zero basis in reality. Of course, if all they are doing is replaying the "have you stopped..." line of gotcha journalism, certainly, its entirely true that the Malay government has NOT issued operating permits to Lynas (which non-news they can scream very loudly without, quite, issuing an outright lie). That others will draw erroneous conclusions delterious to their actual target (primarily the current Malaysian administration, followed at a great distance by the current whipping boy, Lynas) from their sophomoric proclamations is their true goal, after all.

     

    Parsing "operation" from "construction" is likely to be FM's convenient shield, if they should ever be cornered (which is very unlikely, they have the usual media protections).
    1 Nov 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    A Lynashead response for OG :-),
    I don't blame anyone for the Malaysian politics discussion and it does effect the Lynas share price. But at this point I think when we look at AELB and Lynas words and actions I do not see Malaysian politics as fundamental to the LAMP story. Therefore, if Fuziah or the Malaysian Insider or Free Malaysia or the like give me buying opportunities I'll say thank you and add. My view is AELB allows Mt. Weld concentrate by the end of the month. If that happens we will not see these stock levels again in the future.
    1 Nov 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I did see that this morning and that prompted some of my questions above...I should have linked it...duh.
    It is pure spin and makes me believe even more that Lynas and the AELB are cooperatively working towards fulfillment and the process is moving forward.
    In continuing the above conversation...So, 3 things are needed for the Pre-op license and TB, you are saying at least a few of those you do not believe could be known and therefore approved prior to plant completion? Is that correct?
    And Chi, do you agree with that? (You are now the witness...;))
    31 Oct 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, that is not what I meant. Decommissioning (in particular) CANNOT be inspected (except decades from now when it actually happens), but has to be presented as plans which meet the current approval process. I did not comment on Chi's other statements other than to agree with him (see his prior comments for details on those).

     

    There are a LOT more things than 3 items from the List of 11 that are needed to get a pre-op permit, but those will doubtless receive more than their fair share of attention in the media. I believe they are still lacking some equipment or supplies necessary to complete the plant, and I would agree with Chi in his estimate that additional plumbing and wiring is also likely to follow. Chemical plants and refineries are amazing collections of pipes, switches, pumps, wires and sensors...
    31 Oct 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: Sorry I misunderstood you earlier. So...
    ...in reply to this comment above wouldn't you be suggesting that NC's belief the AELB approval to be coming in a matter of weeks to be impossible? Or, as I suggested to Chi, am I misunderstanding what AELB approval is as NC is referring to it...CHi wrote above in regards to NC on the CC:
    "...NC was clear that he saw the AELB decision as regulatory and coming soon (weeks). "
    Either I am misunderstanding what "decision" NC is referring to or 1)still misunderstanding you or 2)NC is wrong

     

    You said "There are a LOT more things than 3 items from the List of 11 that are needed to get a pre-op permit"

     

    SO, is NC not referring to the Pre-op permit or are you suggesting these things may be done or about to be within weeks?

     

    OR...am I loco?? ;)
    31 Oct 2011, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » What we don't have a handle on is any means of quantifying "how much". Chi, after his intense attention to NC's answers and the company's presentation, is of the opinion that the remaining shipments of gear and incomplete construction is minor, representing weeks of work before they can be inspected for a preop permit instead of months. I am not arguing with him, particularly since Lynas has started accelerating their money burn to pay for these things to be done quickly. I also agree about there being a difference between regulatory and political agendas, and that the AELB SHOULD be a regulatory process rather than a political one. I tend to lump the 2 facets of government together, but there is no doubt that though they share many traits, there are many crucial differences. Suffice to say that regulators are almost always creatures of some political class or another, though whatever degree of independence they enjoy can vary wildly. In this case, I believe that those who know more about the Malay scene than I feel that the regulatory function should play out in a pretty "clean" manner, and we can only hope that it works out that way.

     

    I still insist that they will NOT issue permits to a facility which is functionally incomplete, whether the portions which are complete (and overlap the 11 action points which the IAE ADDED to the normal AELB requirements) or not. The AELB regulations are far more comprehensive than just the headline items tacked on by the nuke pop quiz.

     

    We still don't know precisely which items the LAMP array is waiting on to install, but I would stand with Chi's judgement that Lynas has them being expedited and with prospects for quickly finishing the whole thing.

     

    NC was indeed referring to the big thing hanging over their heads, ie, the AELB signing off on their pre-op permit. Its noteworthy that we have NOT heard that the AELB likes the Lynas waste disposal plan, but did acknowledge receiving it from Lynas. This is still pending, and is the centerpiece of the List of 11. I would think that NC's confidence gives us some vague reassurance that all is good with that process, but that is all we have.
    1 Nov 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    This is very helpful discussion. It had been my (mis)understanding that the items needed for Pre-op license are not things dependent upon plant construction /completion and could come down as approved any moment based on promises, plans, design, agreements, minor plant changes etc.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    That should be correct. The issue is when politics precludes clear instructions on what to do to make timely corrections.
    31 Oct 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Rain-
    I am not sure how clearly this has been explained. Sorry if it's clear to you already...As I understand the process of the AELB, they have essentially a 2 step process toward the approval. The first is to ensure that the information submitted by the company is complete and addresses the various elements of the approval requirements (including but not limited to (in this case) the IAEA list as well). Once that package is received/accepted, it will then be scrutinized and reviewed to ensure the solutions provided by the company are acceptable (which would include physical inspections of certain aspects) and then the administrative process of issuing the actual permits can begin. According to NC, we are now at the stage where Lynas has passed in their homework and the teacher is deciding whether it meets the necessary criteria. Whether they get a passing grade will then be decided. My own feeling (just a feeling) is the long term waste management item may have been a sticking point (primarily because of public concern) and might have been knocked back earlier, which might explain why it has not been 'submitted' yet. The AELB regulation says: "If it appears to the appropriate authority that adequate
    facilities are not available for the safe accumulation, storage or
    disposal of any radioactive waste, the appropriate authority
    may direct the licensee to rectify the situation and the licensee
    shall give effect to such direction." See page 21 of http://bit.ly/s4yRGy. My guess is this is an area where they will try to get it right in the beginning. In yesterday's call NC basically said their plan consisted of on-site storage, which will buy them years of operation, with an intention to process the stuff and get rid of it through avenues that they are continuing to investigate. Based on the AELB's transparent process, I think we should get some notice once AELB agrees that Lynas' submission qualifies their requirements, then it should be a matter of weeks for official approval. As many have stated, the priority is to get the LAMP built, though, as much as anything else. Check out the AELB website: http://bit.ly/uovMvS
    and, the Lynas list here: http://bit.ly/tZyv34

     

    Hope this helps.
    1 Nov 2011, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Further...this from a few weeks ago...http://bit.ly/u3PXbf/
    1 Nov 2011, 05:09 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    [IAALF] Released 2011 financials....not too shabby

     

    http://bit.ly/uFQLBf

     

    would add a bit...but I am loaded and at good prices
    31 Oct 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I agree. I gauged their progress as "very good", and I am continuing to add, since they are trading under my $.17 buy target. I am now accumulating trading shares, which I intend to sell later at $.20+.
    31 Oct 2011, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    TB, did you move on UAMY? I think you were looking for $2.80 or below and it's at $2.70 now.
    31 Oct 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » By coincidence my buy@ target is now $2.70, and yes, picked up some trading shares...
    1 Nov 2011, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    At the Boot Camp today (in Toronto) I had some very interesting conversations with some knowledgable people (including some speakers)… I am not going to list any names here but the overall sentiment is that the Lynas lamp issue is a non-issue…

     

    There was some concern about the timing of LAMP coming on line but as one of the presenters aptly put it, it is a large complex project that is essentially breaking ground in the REE industry. He went on to suggest that the rest of the industry will make sure Lynas succeeds for the benefit of the industry.

     

    The speakers thus far have been excellent and I expect another outstanding day tomorrow… More then :)
    1 Nov 2011, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Toly, excellent! Can't wait to hear more details. Besides Lynas, was there any other rare earth miners that seemed to get a lot of praise or buzz? Any talk or excitement about Quest or Tasman, etc??
    1 Nov 2011, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Thanks toly! Great to have some boots on the ground in Toronto.
    1 Nov 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Many of the speakers there are in the position that they either change their tune about Lynas or could look very silly in the short term. I for one will remember every clown that jumped on the July 1 New York Times LAMP story that remains unverified and unsubstantiated to the day. That not only was shameful journalism, it also was the day several rare earth commentators lost all credibility. Lynas still has more to go, but based on photos in the quarterly (a positive point that bares some notice) and NC's calls, I'd rethink a 1-2 year delay claim.
    The real question for me is what was driving that view in the first place? It was so far fetched and absent of factual support it merits some distrust and skepticism IMO.
    1 Nov 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, me too, Chi, me too. Even when I was pissed about the Crown giveaway, I could not comprehend (or respect) some of the double standard media punditry.
    1 Nov 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    USD dollar on a tear over the lat three days and AUD being a bit weak might begin to affect share price near-term. Don't let any small pullback, if any appears, be of much concern. It will likely just be a commodities-wide effect.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (921) | Send Message
     
    HTL, you're right. the Aussie dollar was worth almost US$1.06 yesterday, but only US$1.03 today.

     

    Based on last night's close in Oz, Lynas is worth US$1.235.
    1 Nov 2011, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Freo: Thanks for the above...that may have been the piece I was missing. If what you are saying is accurate then NC was referring to acceptance of the submission and then acceptance leads to final approval. I was looking for a definition of acceptance and your post offered it...thanks.

     

    And many thanks, Toly!
    1 Nov 2011, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5063) | Send Message
     
    China to impose rare earths invoice system to curb illegal sales and regulate prices

     

    http://bit.ly/spEOV3
    1 Nov 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    I find it ironic that China which hammered prices such that all competitors exited the space now finds itself trying to prevent prices from plummeting due to the same infrastructure of producers they encouraged in the past.

     

    Ah, the lovely aroma of centrally-planned unintended consequences.

     

    I wonder if there's a lesson for the West here.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Nov 2011, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Cartel is starting to organize their bookkeeping...

     

    Overdue.
    1 Nov 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    One of the frustrating things about Moly is the constant changing of website format and the quick deleting of information for their site. I have learned to distrust this and sean it as commonplace in junior stocks.

     

    Right now I am attempting to compare the prior Phoenix drawings with the current photos on the site. The photos are currently at the http://www.molycorp.com
    The old drawings are in this analyst day presentation at:
    http://bit.ly/tuFhYH
    Slide 18 shows the overview of the whole Mountain Pass and uses color blocks to indict the future Phoenix construction.
    Slide 19 appears to show a close up of what Moly now labels as the Site of the New State-of-the-Art Separations Facility in Slide 26 of this presentation:
    http://slidesha.re/uQr0Em

     

    It appears from my views that only the CHP is currently being built right now. So either there has been massive redesigns from the analyts day drawings or there are a large number of foundations yet to begin. Either scenario seems very bad to me. And if Moly is going piece meal I see multiple bottlenecks and confusion in the future. Overall, this project seems very different than the promises Molycorp is making.

     

    I know the compare is challenging (and made much harder by Moly's website redesign). But there is something here for certain. I appreciate if others can see my point. If they can and I will try to instablog the point when I have time.
    1 Nov 2011, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Here is the instablog link:
    http://bit.ly/vT5nqJ
    2 Nov 2011, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6025) | Send Message
     
    Very nice Chi... I left a question in the insta for you.
    2 Nov 2011, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I appreciate the feedback FPA.
    I put the insta up because much of the view about future rare earth pricing stems from Moly Phoenix. We almost have to take a position one way or another on the project's likelihood of success in order to fully understand other rare earth stocks (esp. LREE mines). They are claiming to be two thirds of rest of world supply during the next two years. And nearly every analysts puts them in as a given in the pricing and NPV's for other stocks.
    But my point is the photos are already making this seem insane. I cannot see how this will happen. Honestly, I see nothing close. The instablog is my way to be as clear as I can through the photos to see what others think.
    2 Nov 2011, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi all, there was so much on the plate in Toronto I will post it a little at a time.

     

    First, the "housekeeping"...

     

    What an event!... Garath and Jack hit a real successful note; The attendance was around ~75 people or so (including staff and speakers)… It was possible to have lunch or dinner, one on one, with all of the speakers including the staff (Garath and Jack). We all had some excellent discussions with some very influential people in the REE space...

     

    I was very impressed with Garath, he made himself freely available and was a cordial as he could be. The event itself was well organized and included everything as advertised. Details such as issuing a power point supplement on a thumb drive (instead of a stack of papers), to carefully choreographed presentations helped keep the pace of things very smooth. The conference center was an excellent facility and the lunches and dinners were a room adjacent to the conference room. There was plenty of room for a cocktail party and having been to events that were spread out all over town, it was nice to have everything in one place...

     

    Once again, the networking opportunities were excellent, everyone was at ease and while I did manage a some discussions about specific stocks, the mood in general was generic, but focused on the REE industry. No self promoting or corporate spamming here :)

     

    All of the speakers were excellent, obviously professionals in their given fields and presented their subjects clearly and in a timely manner. Needless to say the equipment and presentation aids worked well and any small glitches were immediately resolved by Garath and Jack who were on top of things at all times. Did I mention that the presentation power points were on a thumb drive? :)

     

    Most stayed at the Toronto Hilton and it was a 4 minute walk from the conference center and it was the quality you would expect at the Hilton (Great Views)...

     

    I guess the main reason I am posting this is that I am hoping this might become an annnual event... When I left Toronto I felt like it was the best money I have spent in a long time...

     

    Sorry to bore anyone with these details but I thought I would explain these detail in case anyone wants to express interest to TMR for another event in the future...

     

    Just as another note, I discussed TB's instablog with Garath and he admitted to being a lurker (and occasional poster) on this blog. He doesn't follow many of the other sites and I told him we all appreciated his presence on the concentrator. He specifically noted the professional nature of this site!

     

    Sorry, time to jump on the plane... The speakers and DD next post!
    1 Nov 2011, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18060) | Send Message
     
    Great comments Toly! Everyone here welcomes your notes on this stuff.

     

    Good to hear you found it so enjoyable as well as informative.

     

    Makes me think about getting out to one in the future.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2011, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is no substitute for "boots on the battlefield", toly. Any thoughts or background you can bring to us from such a first-person source will be vary valuable. Thanks much for sharing with us!
    2 Nov 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1563) | Send Message
     
    Lynas remains my #1 play in the REE space. But the cv pfd from Moly is just too good to pass up. I don't care whether I pay 89 cents for a dollar or much more worth of value (my cheapest LYSDY price) or $76 for a $100 convertible (today's price to buy all I wanted in size for MCP+A -- also retrievable, depending on brokerage or feed, as MCP-A, MCP/A, MCP-PA, MCP.PR.A, ad-seemingly-infinitum.)

     

    Value is value. You don't have to like Moly or their shenanigans. (I don't.) You don't have to believe the company will likely be 2nd to market. You merely need to believe they will at least limp along as a profitable going concern for the next ten years, paying their 5.5% coupon for, at these prices, a 7.18% per annum return. (I do.)

     

    Maya and I think alike on this and I owe him for reminding me to take this one off the back page of our watch list and place it near the top of page 1. Yes, at these prices it ties up a lot of capital. But for a 7%+ dividend I believe is likely secure, I'll take the cv over the common any day...
    1 Nov 2011, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good points. Now, if I could just complete my MCP trading cycle...
    2 Nov 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9984) | Send Message
     
    Joseph: Good to see you're on board with the convertible preferred. I only wish I could afford to buy more than I bought. It's not just the outstanding 7% return that makes this so juicy, but also that this preferred can actually be viewed as a growth stock.

     

    Last time I hit the jackpot with a preferred was Ford's, which was up over 150% when they called in the shares. I'm seeing the Moly preferred as potentially jumping by 50% or more within about two years.

     

    And BTW, you got your shares cheaper than I did; I paid a little over $78 per.
    2 Nov 2011, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The new REE Concentrator is ready for immediate use!

     

    9999999999999999999999...

     

    9999999999999999999999...
    2 Nov 2011, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Joseph Shaefer: You merely need to believe they (MCP) will at least limp along as a profitable going concern for the next ten years, paying their 5.5% coupon for, at these prices, a 7.18% per annum return. (I do.)

     

    I think your investment view is sound but the Moly preferred is risky if you compare preferred to preferred. Some feel the $110 million approved by the MCP board was based on phase one of Phoenix already being over budget rather than based on acceleration claims. If Phoenix is much more expensive Silmet might not cover costs. I would say MCP-A is safe, but I would take a good master limited partnership over it for yield. I must admit the price is cheap of course and the risk is higher than many but the convertible seems safe so overall I agree with your point.
    2 Nov 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
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