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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, November 2, 2011 201 comments
    Nov 2, 2011 10:00 AM

    "Dragon Madonna" by stan bruns


    Translation for the rune border - poem I wrote on the topic of motherhood, titled "Motherlode".

    A note about the artwork...  The original rendering is entirely done by hand, with tiny steel point ink pens (crowquill, speedball and rapidograph) plus some brushwork for the heavy lines.  The ink, once applied, cannot be erased, covered up or modified in any way without leaving harsh "footprints".  The source is purely from my imagination, of course...

    The original pen and ink drawing is about 3 feet wide, so this is an extremely large scale piece (given that the smallest pens used for each and every single line and dot are hypodermic in size).
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Comments (201)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/uqhGW5

     

    IBC CEO interview.
    2 Nov 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    TB, thanks. An upbeat interview, but their fiscal 2011 results haven't done a whole lot for the share price.

     

    They have a YouTube video done a few weeks ago at
    http://bit.ly/sb0hSj
    2 Nov 2011, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Their fiscal results were actually better than I had expected, but of course I am taking a long view on this one.
    2 Nov 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6258) | Send Message
     
    Three Feet! Is that the artists proof? You are one impressive person Stan...
    2 Nov 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The image posted above is of the full scale lithograph taken from the original pen and ink (the limited edition prints are created via a photogravure process). They are the exact size of the original pen and ink drawing.
    2 Nov 2011, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on GWMGF, ALSK, and ARAFF. Added LYSDY, IAALF, AXPW, and MCP. Lurking with trades both ways on a long list of stocks...
    2 Nov 2011, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton's opinions picked up by Reuters:
    http://reut.rs/se9CuN
    2 Nov 2011, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    "That's why you don't want the biggest deposits, you don't want to have to process hundreds of tonnes at horrendous cost. You're looking for the highest grade heavy rare earths and the least cost to recover them. It's a question of economics," Lifton said.

     

    Not bad advice Jack. But I'd say the best advice in juniors still applies- You want the company that executes and produces. Jack's right from a feasibility view of things. No doubt a high ore grade and good spectrum of HREE will make the mining more profitable and therefore more likely to produce. Cost of production and ore grade will always be the bread and butter of mining.

     

    But many of us here have been watching these companies for a year or more. We have seen companies with great promise remain a promise while others are showing achievement. My recent insta is tough on Moly for minimal progress on the ground, but at least they are grading and constructing. My bullishness with Lynas is also based on taking drawings and producing a concentrator and progressing on LAMP construction in 2011. Long term these issues are the cornerstone of the investment.

     

    But I think the rare earth industry is getting past the painful repetition of every junior starting the first ten slides of every presentation with what are rare earths. That stuff is fine. But it is not enough now that prices have pulled back. If that discussion was a company's main story you can bet those stocks are burnt toast from here.

     

    Going forward the key will be timelines and construction. We are focusing on the production side and less pop will be given to the explorer side IMO. New mines may be discovered still, but the standards are higher now. And delays and redesigns will be more costly to share price than ever before.

     

    I think this is good news for most investors. It will mark a maturing of the rare earth sector. And I think it is easier for investors to educate themselves on performance than it is to understand geology. I'm glad to see this progression and find little concern that the many pretender stocks are going on barrowed time. I think that has been understood for some time and we have ignored most of those stocks on the concentrator anyway.
    2 Nov 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The emphasis shifting to the first movers has always been in the cards - and now it shines some light onto the motivation behind the fierce battle among the leading 3 company's fans.

     

    The focus has shifted very strongly to the end game, with bulldozers and chemical plant construction crews taking the limelight away from junior games with drill programs and projections dating 3 or 4 years down the pike. Operating permits are the point of discussion instead of drilling results and arcane geological minutia, and yes, I must agree, its time for the change.

     

    Looking ahead from here, I see a period extending until LAMP goes fully commercial (at least at Phase 1 levels), at which point we may actually see what effect a certain amount of free supply has on empty ex-China markets. Some believe this will immediately propel market prices back to 2006 levels, but I REALLY doubt this... But we will see.

     

    The scenario I expect for this event (say early in Q2 of 2012) is that Lynas' 11kmt will hit the markets and vanish, quickly, and at prices not dissimilar from the projections Lynas has been publishing. By that time the condition of the Japanese strategic rare earth reserves should be, frankly, dire. This will create a vacuum that will not permit oversupply. And when this is detected by markets...

     

    We may see some very unusual conditions.

     

    IF, as some of us (Chi and I certainly) foresee, MCP is delayed bringing Phoenix back from the ashes, the projections for many of the more common rare earths entering oversupply will slip just as surely as those construction completion dates have.

     

    One phenomenon which usually follows an entire mining sector's rebirth under circumstances like these is a period of merger and acquisition. MCP has already done some bottom feeding, picking up some tiny companies for pennies, but there will remain a long list of junior projects at offer over the next 2 or 3 years. Its probably early to be picking winners from that group just yet, but then again, that's what we do spend a considerable time speculating about, isn't it?

     

    My eye remains on TASXF, ARAFF, NOURF, UURAF, QRM and some others which might make the cut should a series of "if's" come to pass.

     

    Excellent post, Chi, one of your finest.
    2 Nov 2011, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    TB, I agree with all of your choices except maybe Ucore. I would like to add Avalon rare metals (AVL) and possibly Matamec (MTCEF.)
    Neither are perfect, AVL is in no-mans land, and Matamec is overall a small resource. AVL is just too large to ignore, and Matamec would be a nice target for M & A.
    2 Nov 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would include both of those in any second tier list. AVL would be a runnerup to QRM, and MTCEF is one that I used to believe would be a M&A target, and it yet might, but now I think it will be a longer term (out past 2016+) consideration.

     

    UCore is, like TASXF, a political pick rather than one I would select based upon TREO's.
    2 Nov 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jeb Handwerger is taking a swing at the "rare earths arn't rare" crowd. Good for you Jeb!
    http://bit.ly/u4nP46/
    2 Nov 2011, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I make fun of that crowd, but do you know what...

     

    I really AM tired of them. I hope he turns them into compost.
    2 Nov 2011, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Chi, will forward the link to the folks at Fast Money.
    2 Nov 2011, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    More from Toronto...

     

    First of all I need to apologize for spelling Gareth's name wrong... It is with an E as opposed to an A...

     

    When I arrived at the Toronto Hilton and was checking in, I met Jeb Handwerger, journalist and owner of the Gold Trade Stocks web site... Jeb has quite a following on his site and deals quite extensively with gold and silver trading. He is also moving into the REE arena. Also, early on the first day I met Mark MacDonald of UCORE. Mark is with the business development end of things in Halifax, (NS)... The three of us ended up spending time together and sharing a lunch or dinner table with most of the speakers at one time or another...

     

    I guess I will post my comments and notes in a chronological order as they were at the seminar. All of the subjects were very well chosen and presented in an order that made sense and had a natural flow. The presentations were followed by a short question and answer period. The answers to the questions were often annotated by other experts to give a little more color on the subject, without ego's!

     

    The seminar open with some opening remarks by Garath on supply/demand projections. His charts indicated REE demand increasing anywhere between 4 to 10% (annualized) over the next 8 years.

     

    This is obviously a projection and an encouraging one at that. If demand increases at this rate and the supply is not there, the first movers stand to do very well in an uncrowded space. There was some more discussion of REE demand with respect to the changing supply chain and the different regions and applications that will determine future growth. Annualized growth of 10% (compounded ?) is significant and will keep the demand increasing. However supply must be there to keep the users interested in REE applications... Of course different regions and demands will determine the individual elements use...

     

    The next speaker was Karl Gschneidner who presented an intro to Rare Earth Chemistry. It made me wish I paid better attention in my college chemistry class but it still was presented in a manner that even I got something out of it. Karl presented some moderate Physics describing the actions of the different atom shells and the significance of their interaction. Included were the different shapes of the 4f charge densities and other subjects (pretty interesting). IMO, the presentation was in depth enough to keep everyone interested yet general enough so someone like myself could keep up. Also Professor Gschneidner included many reference and facts that tied his chemistry presentation together with the Lanthanide group of metals (REE's)...

     

    Other things discussed included the separation process of REE's which is extremely complex and requires a level of understanding that I do not have. It helped me realize that REE production is a lot more than mining...

     

    As far as individual companies are concerned, it seemed as though everyone had an opinion on the current progress and future direction of the juniors especially those close to production. While I am not going to list any names or individual comments I will reveal some general thoughts and opinions. The prevailing opinions about the Juniors is that most will be gone is a few years. Pretty much everyone felt that the separation of the individual elements will provide a very large barrier of entry and will trip up many of the smaller players. That said, it seemed that there was a wide variety of opinions as to just who will be on the top of the pile as time goes on...

     

    I am a staunch believer in the financial statements and while cash on the balance sheet is of critical importance, the burn rate ultimately determines the staying power of any company. I guess what I am saying it the obvious, the better capitalized juniors will survive if they have control over their spending. In my discussions with Mark McDonald, he indicated that UCORE was well aware of this and was cautiously developing it's exploration plan and moving ahead with controlled progress. It is my feeling that the juniors need to put them in a position for potential M & A as the Capex of planning, engineering, constructing and operating a separation facility will be cost prohibitive...

     

    More a little later... :)
    2 Nov 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    And how tired am I?
    When JPM downgraded Moly I found myself in the bizarre position of being a Molydog. I did my best for Smith arguing against the "rare earths aren't rare" shorters. Funny thing is they did not show up till near the market bottom and they are already hard to find.

     

    That's the thing about shorters. The good ones are the best researchers, and the bad ones are the worst IMO. Good shorters like Eihorn and Chanos come up with detailed views you can't ignore. Right or wrong their arguments are detailed and thought through. But the drive by guys that trade off one fact or rumor are irritating in any sector. Most of time they don't even have a clear view, just a sound bite.
    I'm not a "ban shorts" guy, but in conversation I wish these guys had the same fundamental standards as most longs.
    2 Nov 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    MCP as an option trade.
    2 Nov 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    for a little levity... bet you can't resist taking a peak after reading the comments above:

     

    http://bit.ly/teoPjS
    2 Nov 2011, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, but I'm NOT in favor of banning shorts at all... I am much more in favor of upgrading them, lifting them up to a higher level... So to speak.
    2 Nov 2011, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    Can I get that in a calendar? I'd forgotten we used to have "sweater girls". ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sweaters... Is that the investment term for playing triple leveraged short ETF's?
    2 Nov 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    LoL! Yeah, I hadn't thought of that.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi Chi, to add to your comments on the juniors, it would appear that today's sour investing climate may just favor the juniors that know how to conserve valuable capital. There is not a lot of "go team go" enthusiasm at this point in time and while I am sure there is a point where this will change, the fact remains these are tough times to go to the well…

     

    Conversely these same problems heavily favor the well capitalized companies (including juniors) who can measure their cash outflow and tailor progress to match…

     

    I agree MCP has capitalization at the right time and I know UCORE is fully aware of what is going on in this environment. I think I will look at some more balance sheet / cash flow situations and try and pick out others in the same space...
    2 Nov 2011, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Toly,
    I'd say cash is king already. Pretenders large and small are going to have a hard time raising cash. The interest in rare earth explorers is much less than in the Spring. Those companies funded with low burn rates will continue full speed. Those unable to do offerings will see their timelines extended. I do not like AVL (mentioned above) because of this. They are a long way from earnings with massive capital still needed and a long timeline already. Same goes for anything in Greenland.

     

    Quest may have drilled enough and has a clear enough story to have a chance in my mind. Certainly, Quest can raise when the time comes and they should be able to hold off for a while as well.

     

    GW is already working an offering so that speaks for itself. It might get messy but when they finish, if they develop well after it things could be easier next time around.

     

    Moly has funding question marks. The board approved the acceleration spend so we got very few details there. If Moly does not get the government loan they have been trying for during the last year, I think funding from Silmet and the old plant alone will slow their progress IMO.

     

    I find Ucore to be in a bad spot. They have a very high burn rate and have hitched their wagon to the government gravy train forever with minimal results. I'm sure they are aware of their position but the question is what can they do? Their ore grade is low and the project is expensive. I know they have both a take over and US military interest to aide them. But with that burn rate I see them facing a tough clock.

     

    Rare Element Resources (our little file cabinet that can stock) has some good results of late with a long time line. I need to see more before I could be impressed.

     

    And of course I still hate Stan's Energy more than ever.
    2 Nov 2011, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    http://buswk.co/v0XSHs
    3 Nov 2011, 12:19 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Apparently the Alaskan government is interested in building a hydro electric dam near Bokan Mountain. It was explained to me that Alaska being a very project friendly state may push the case to develop it's resources, namely Bokan…

     

    Good article, kinda takes you back to the wild west days :)
    3 Nov 2011, 04:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/w5dRVw

     

    Germany is serious about rare earth resources (note that their PM is taking the lead).

     

    Jon, there's a bit in here about Merkel's trip to Mongolia, too...
    3 Nov 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    "Great Western Minerals Group Announces Management Appointments"

     

    More overhead for the "Rareco" portion.

     

    http://mwne.ws/scRbN6

     

    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2011, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    It seems that GWM is just rewarding their management with new titles and probably stock options!
    3 Nov 2011, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    "China maps a wind turbine future without rare-earth magnets"

     

    http://bit.ly/vr2VVY

     

    H.T. to Lonleydog at Investorshub for the link.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Nov 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/uAia00

     

    OK, we've all read the Reuters article quoting Jack Lifton that less than 4% of the 244 REE companies he cites are going to make the cut. That would be "9", since 4% is 9.76...

     

    I disagree with him, btw, and so does the author of this editorial (and yes, the author has a problem counting, he says he's going to tell us about 7 companies, then lists just 6)...

     

    Let's see which companies everyone picks to be in the top 9. My list:

     

    LYSCF, GWMGF, MCP, ARAFF, UURAF, TASXF, NOURF, QRM and Frontier (actually, I have a tie between Alkane and Frontier, but since we are limited to just 9, I pick Frontier because the South Koreans are backing them).
    3 Nov 2011, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Busy day but I'll bite on this and wish you guys well till the evening
    LYSCF
    MCP
    ALK (Alkane)
    NOURF
    QRM
    Peak, Frontier and/or Montero merge and are bought.
    Arafura and the crown resource gets bought and Forge challenges Lynas in the future (just to shake things up :-))

     

    My last (really more than nine) is a currently undiscovered or private company like Wings that changes the future.

     

    This is a very changing and young sector still. The known explorers are assured very little and the future likely offers unanticipated surprises.
    3 Nov 2011, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I agree, chihawk, these kinds of predictions are premature since it is early in the game. A lot depends on how many more years of global financial crises are in store for us.
    3 Nov 2011, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    They are premature VB, but it can be entertaining. I'm glad TB posed the thought. I've been thinking about several amusing scenarios.
    3 Nov 2011, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    I dispute the math. We round UP from 9.76, because the decimal is more than .5.
    It should be 10 possible winners outside China in the ree space!
    Just bustin on you TB.
    3 Nov 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Of course, OG, but Jack said LESS than 4%, and rounding up would end up with MORE than 4%...

     

    But I disagree with his thinking in this case, anyway.
    3 Nov 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8710) | Send Message
     
    One question, how many countries determine they need REE's for strategic purposes and keep any mines in thier country afloat no matter what? I thinks the number will be well above 9 just because of the political influence. Like we have never seen that before......looking at the stock screen comes to mind....daily....stick saves. PPT, currency manipulations......jeeze its mind boggling.

     

    The question simply is what countries will be concerned enough to support mines at home and add this to your number of mines capable of supporting themselves, then.....subtract a couple capable of supporting themselves because they wont make it with the govt supporting the losers. MODERN investment math technique for this new investment environment.

     

    Unfortunately I do not know the math formula well enough to do the math and yes its too early to predict some of the equations.
    3 Nov 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    DG,
    I think it is a good point. Several people believe dig them and the technologies will come when the supply chain is secure. This makes a lot of sense to me. The "experts" in every price analysis seem to see supply being easy to create but demand is hard to grow in their minds.

     

    I find that strange since the lack of supply and increasing demand is the current situation on the ground. But whether we look at countries or supply chains for current and emerging companies I think to understand where this is going we need to watch the growing demand IMO. Supply has come much slower than expected and demand will grow from here if the rare earth is available.

     

    It is stock analysts thinking to expect demand destruction and oversupply. But in successful tech areas this reasoning has a bad track record. Even when the growth is obvious, like cell phones over the last five years, we still heard questions about whether the space was big enough for several players. It is very possible if the supply contracts fill most of the supply then prices could hold up well going forward.
    3 Nov 2011, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    A story in today's Financial Times -- "Rare earth challenge for Germany."

     

    The gist is that Germany looked for help from Kazakhstan & Mongolia. Russia has offered them help, Continental has developed a motor w/o permanent magnets, mentions BASF's deal w/ Lynas for their petroleum refinery catalysts, Siemens' deal with Lynas for their wind turbines, Federation of German Industries (BDI) evaluating an alliance to invest in REE projects overseas, etc.
    3 Nov 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    The Indians must be getting more interested in Africa's rare earths by now, too. We'll likely see some deals along those lines in the future.
    http://bit.ly/v0z45S/
    3 Nov 2011, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    The top 5 :)

     

    LYC
    MCP
    UURAF
    NOURF
    TASXF
    3 Nov 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    The top

     

    LYC
    QRM
    MCP
    TASXF
    AVL
    ALK
    NOURF

     

    As has happened with computer memory / ram, expanding ever larger
    from the 1980s -90s to the present. Can you hear folks back in the day say - "why on earth would you need 2 gigabytes of memory...." I'm hoping as new abundant supplies come on line, new tech and uses will come forth and utilize these light and heavy rare earths.
    An ever increasing economic cycle will hopefully occur as we move further into the technological era.
    6 Nov 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/v9FVxa
    3 Nov 2011, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    The fact that Lisa Murkowski is one of the rabble-rousers in this article may bode well for UCore, TB.

     

    Since I noticed it was #5 on your "List" I'll swallow the bait and jump in with my REE list as well:

     

    LYSDF
    LYSDF
    LYSDF
    MCP+A
    MCP+A
    MCP+A
    MCP+A
    MCP+A
    GWMGF
    with each listing getting 1% of my TOTAL (not REE) portfolio
    and, with the remaining 0.75% (9.75 companies is still < 4% :)) going to UURAF or a draft choice to be named later.

     

    3% to my favorite, LYSDF, 5% to MCP because it is in the US and will thus enjoy political clout and because it is a cv pr, and 1% to GWMGF for nostalgia...
    7 Nov 2011, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/tlUaHg

     

    Some more news dated today...

     

    Not really earth shaking, just more background and it gives a good idea of how broad the reporting is right now.
    3 Nov 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think we are going to see a lot more articles like this based on the Moly WastePaste idea. It sounds like a fraud to me. They want to take their waste combine it with their tailings and stack it up on a liner. This stack on a liner is suppose to replace a pond. And in Moly's latest they are thinking about monazite processing at Mountain Pass. This is all after Moly had a pond leak previously and also has a "superfund clean-up" responsibility in New Mexico still.
    http://bit.ly/rL0HnH/
    3 Nov 2011, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    The new owner of the New Mexico site, Chevron, has the responsibility for the cleanup. Molycorp is in the clear on that as far as I can tell. They might have had to reduce the sell price of their molybdenum mine several years ago to compensate for the estimated cost of the cleanup.
    http://1.usa.gov/uIcr5B
    The waste paste idea at Mountain Pass does seem a bit problematical. There may be leakage problems with it when stray remnants of hurricanes off of the Western Mexican Coast find their way blown north in some autumns. The area has an occasional seasonal monsoonal flow from the south much like the Rocky Mountain states do but the predominant weather patterns come from the warm dry air flows from the north and west.
    The old waste pond at the southern tip of Ivanpah Dry Lake probably has to be sprayed occasionally in order to keep down the dust from blowing with the prevailing winds eastward to the hamlet of Nipton.
    The old wastewater pipeline was removed by Chevron as far as I can tell about two years ago. A pdf document about would have to be opened at this link.
    http://bit.ly/sFQrGw
    Chevron was the previous owner of Mountain Pass. They must have made an agreement with Molycorp to help with the cleanup.
    http://bit.ly/ry6ha4=
    3 Nov 2011, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    Your Superfund responsibilities are correct (poor word choice on my part), but my point about the New Mexico site should be that Molycorp has a culture of pollution in it's past.

     

    This waste paste idea is common in a lot of mining but adding low radioactive levels to the mix is a big additional responsibility. With the current bastnasite ore the radioactivity is very low. But now with Moly bragging about being able to process the monazite they have, this storage approach seems dysfunctional for monazite waste IMO. Of course, since Moly has not drilled or tested these "HREE sources" they claim, we do not know the thorium levels at issue. Perhaps that is by design to avoid EPA comment at this stage?

     

    Your post thoroughly outlined the rain issues with a wastepaste pile and liner system (thanks), but the bigger issue is wind and heat IMO. The temperature variation, high temperatures, winds and the very dry air are all major challenges to the liner's use and wind erosion in the Mountain Pass area. The tailings pit approach seems like a very poor solution to rare earth waste in the Mountain Pass region. Based on Moly's history I think this idea was all about cost and misguided from an environmental perspective.
    3 Nov 2011, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I tend to agree with you, chihawk, about those waste storage risks. Maybe Moly is getting some advice from the military at Fort Irwin or China Lake about how best to handle dangerous waste in the desert environment. It will be interesting to see what the EPA thinks about any thorium generated in that setting. Perhaps the thorium would have to be shipped north via Route 127 to Yucca Mountain for storage.
    4 Nov 2011, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    That may be true. But if so, that better be a lot of darn advice. The wastepaste pile will be 45 million tons of earth!
    4 Nov 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    It might be better to ship any hazardous waste to Fort Irwin. Moly could contract with the military since the military has an interest in rare earth. The military seems to know how to handle the waste.
    http://bit.ly/snd7Ay
    4 Nov 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    You are too good and responsible a businessman. And Moly is too cheap to take your good advice IMO.
    4 Nov 2011, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I'm just brainstormin', lol.
    4 Nov 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10658) | Send Message
     
    Just upped my MCP convertible preferred by 150%; purchased at ~ $78.00 per.

     

    Sold Met Life preferred to accomplish this goal...at a small share price profit. MCP yields a little more than a 100 basis points more per share; Met Life isn't going anywhere, and MCP preferred likely will rise by 50% in the next two to three years. So I increased annual reciepts while also likely increasing net worth over time.

     

    My smart move of the month! (Hopefully).
    4 Nov 2011, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Watch for news on this next week:
    http://bit.ly/rMYtKU

     

    Town Hall Meeting - Legal Action On Lynas Issue
    November 7 2011 8:30PM (Kuantan Malaysia Time)
    Restoran Sekilau, Kuantan

     

    Google translate of Banner:
    Public Briefing
    Legal Action - Legal Issues Lynas

     

    Red ribbon: New episodes of the plight of talent begins ... December int!
    4 Nov 2011, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    My blogger friend "luckymjohnson" posted this on Hot Copper.
    It is a photo of the Town Hall Meeting I mentioned above:
    http://bit.ly/tOH13V

     

    Sometimes a picture really says it all. This is the group Lynas doubters say create the "political risk" to the LAMP. Note the empty chairs are not the political risk. It's the handful of people the bears say justifies the share price around $1.20.
    8 Nov 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    Well, you know Chi, all those short people standing there wearing yellow sheets is pretty scary.
    8 Nov 2011, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    Great photo. Did anyone else notice the sign in the back of the room that says, "Will the last person to leave quietly turn off the lights so as not to awaken those still sleeping?"

     

    Kidding. I'm kidding. But do take a look at the body language with the crossed arms, the people either texting or sleeping, etc.

     

    Wow. This is a bunch I want to march on Wall Street with.
    8 Nov 2011, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm sure next week "Save Malaysia" will claim the yellow chairs are people in hazmat suits taking extra precautions.
    8 Nov 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    At the boot camp in Toronto we were able to sit down with a Senior Chemist from Australia.

     

    "(His) particular interests include materials development for ion exchange and adsorption applications, and solution-chemistry modeling of hydrometallurgical processing streams."

     

    He is particularly well versed in the Radiation issues encountered when working with REEs and the various extraction processes.

     

    It is his feeling is that radiation at LAMP or in the transport of the concentrate is NOT any kind of problem in itself and it is political issues that are driving the current sentiment. The comment was made that Lynas needed to improve the perception of REE processing at LAMP (which they are working on)...

     

    Also, his presentation included methods of chemical concentration and separation processes including solvent extraction. SX is a very complex process and it seems there is no other way (at this time) to carry out this process in an easier method… It requires many circuits or what is essentially piping roadways, to route the processing through an organic process that actually removes the impurities to achieve increasing purity of a given element. Very complex...

     

    One very interesting note that came from Tony Marino's presentation in reference to the SX process. Tony's comments were that in reality, the grade of ore at these mines is somewhat insignificant and the issue that is real important is how easily the REE's can be extracted from the minerals.
    4 Nov 2011, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Mark Smith was just on CNBC and was very bullish on demand. he made the comment that Moly was going to accelerate Project Phoenix by 6 months at an ADDITIONAL cost of $115m…

     

    What is amazing is that he said they will recover that cost in just 5 weeks of production! They also showed some pictures of the site and work in progress and it looked like they had a long way to go. I'm not too sure when the pictures were taken however...
    4 Nov 2011, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    toly,
    My understanding is the six month acceleration is a "pie in the sky" promise applying to Phase two and the pie in the sky promise for Phase one is 3 months acceleration. I know Moly's main production is pie in the sky these days, but that's my current understanding of the Moly bakery.:-)
    Keep in mind his 5 weeks of production is when Moly is at the 40k tpa that Moly says with a level of assumption never seen in any mining. But let face it that's the Moly way.
    I think the $115 million is very interesting. It was approved by the board rather than being done as a public raising. Moly seems to be saying it will come from current funding and earnings from current production. Because the $115 million was an approval by the Moly Board no accounting was needed or provided. Is it funding pulled forward? Is Moly really this well funded with a PE of 150? Maybe. But my guess is if markets are strong there will be an offering "for acquisitions and other business activities" (code words for Phoenix is actually over budget).
    I've done and instablog with Moly photos here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Personally, I see no way this thing is even on time, let alone accelerated. DYOR
    4 Nov 2011, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Toly,
    Doctor Marino is a smart guy. He has worked on Mt. Weld and has a lot of experience. But keep in mind when he does not worry about grade he means that from an extraction point of view as a metallurgist. The grade of ore remains key because there is a limit to the amount of concentrate you can put through a Materials Processing Plant. The whole reason mines concentrate ore is to reduce the total ore fed into processing.

     

    So for example Lynas just had their quarterly investor calls and indicated it is about 45 days of processing from first feed to exiting product in the LAMP. Now if you think of the processing line like a tube and realize that only so much concentrate will fit in the processing line you can see how the rare earth concentrate effects the end production.

     

    But then the next question is why is Lynas so happy with 37% REO concentrate versus the 40% they estimated in earlier presentation slides? The answer is the second number, the 64% recovery rate. This matters to the mining side. The 36% not recovered in the floatation processes of concentrating never makes it into the materials plant and thus does not become final product (it becomes tailings instead).

     

    So the concentrator is a balancing act between the mine and chemical metallurgy. If the concentrator produces a high REO but does not recover enough of the original rare earth, the mining is inefficient on the mining side because a lot of ore is needed to produce enough concentrate. But if the recovery rate is good and the concentrator produces low REO concentrate the production at the materials plant will be slowed and you get more gypsum (a low value product) and less rare earth oxide (a high value product) as end product.

     

    So if we translate the mining to economics, high REO concentrate reduces costs at processing and increases revenue through a higher processing rate of higher margin products. And a strong recovery rate reduces mining costs and results in more high margin product revenue during the life of the mine.

     

    One last thought on this. Lynas is considering raising their production capacity based on the recovery rate being 64% instead of the expected 58% even though the concentrate is 37% versus the earlier 40% expected in last years presentations. I mention this because it shows the economic balance between these two numbers.
    4 Nov 2011, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    toly,
    On a separate thought where I agree more with Doctor Marino. Several analysts are emphasizing the prices of pure oxides (99.99% pure) listed in the Asian metal pages and suggesting the less pure prices will be much lower and thus these mines will have much less than expected revenue. This is more wrong than right in most cases based on the solvent extraction process you mention. If the impurities are inert or simple to remove then the additional purifying is inexpensive and a small issue. But if the impurities cannot be removed from the oxide then as a contaminant they would reduce the value of the 99% REO produced.
    4 Nov 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi Chi, what's your take on Mark Smith's comments today where he said the acceleration of Project Phoenix will cut 6 months off the construction time at a cost of $115m?

     

    He said that they would recover this in 5 weeks (I assume this is gross)… This would indicate INCREASED numbers of $20m / week (annualized over $1b pa) … no?
    4 Nov 2011, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    See a few comments above, I think we crossed on timing here toly.
    4 Nov 2011, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Good article and better comments on raremetalblog...

     

    http://bit.ly/vqxgtx
    4 Nov 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Article shows a possible softening position of the opposition party The Pahang Barisan Nasional…

     

    While they discuss winning Pahang in the upcoming elections, they admit it will be a tough fight… I think Pahang is Najib's hometown…
    Anyway the article makes for good reading...

     

    From the article...

     

    “The Lynas issue (Australia’s rare earth processing facility) is the main problem but whatever it is, we will wait for the next course of action from AELB (Atomic Energy Licensing Board),” he said.

     

    "Adnan, who is the Mentri Besar said if AELB allowed Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd to commence its operation in the Gebeng industrial area here, it would mean the project was safe."

     

    http://bit.ly/syImyJ
    6 Nov 2011, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good morning all!
    Interesting rare earth week ahead.
    Moly has a conference call 11/10/11 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
    Lynas is inviting a group of analysts to the LAMP.
    GW offering will occur on or before November 10, 2011?
    Overall, good start of trade.
    7 Nov 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/sA1UeZ/

     

    another fishing boat incident between china and japan. ( got the art. of the sh board)
    7 Nov 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Fishing boat incident also on Rare Metal Blog..
    http://bit.ly/vnDyCi

     

    haha... they copied it right off Stockhouse... included the article: Malaysian Town Recalls Rare Earth Mining Woes. At the bottom under related articles mentions Lynas.
    7 Nov 2011, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I can't see how this fishing boat matters in that the quotas are down and the WTO argument has changed to more of a quota/production/supply argument now that China ordered some domestic shutdown. I think China will reduce the quota in 2012 citing on coming supply and the need to shut down domestic production. That argument should work without fishing boat drama.

     

    As for Malaysian politics, they may or may not matter that much. Curtis was clear in his investor calls last week that he feels it's a regulatory issue and he is not concerned about the politics. I think the politics appear relevant to some extent, but I am so bored with the politics I choose to ignore them for now. I say just build the plant Lynas.
    The following is from a Malaysian blog page I thought was pretty good:

     

    Lynas is NOT EQUAL to the Asian Rare Earth (ARE), Hill
    Red:
    - The raw material factory in Bukit Merah is a waste of tin industry, the dung ore
    : - Lynas is the land of raw materials (tailings) from mines and not WASTE .
    : - Content of radioactive materials Lynas is far lower than the raw materials and waste of ARE Queenstown
    : - Content of radioactive material in the raw materials of ARE Queenstown is 37 times higher than Lynas
    : - Content of radioactive material in Queenstown ARE waste is 60 times higher than Lynas.

     

    For link go here and hit translate:
    http://bit.ly/ue6fVX
    Other friends brought up that a lot more dangerous industrial activities likely occur in the Gebeng Industrial Park where the LAMP is being built. I think that is a good point too. LAMP waste technically is neither "industrial waste" or "hazardous" by either way Lynas is responsible for the safe long term disposal of the tailings and residues from the processing and filtering of the LAMP waters.
    7 Nov 2011, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Interesting internal appointment/promotions at GW:
    http://bit.ly/sEhtws

     

    "Great Western Minerals Group ("GWMG" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the appointment of David Kennedy to the position of Chief Executive Officer of GWMG’s 100%-owned subsidiary Rare Earth Extraction Co. Limited ("Rareco").
    GWMG is also pleased to announce the appointment of Ian Higgins to the position of Managing Director, Metals and Alloys, with overall responsibility for LCM and Great Western Technologies Inc. Dr. Higgins, who holds a Ph. D. in Materials Science, is a highly experienced rare earth technical expert who joined LCM in 2001. He has been responsible for the day-to-day operations of LCM as well as procurement of rare earth materials from China.
    Additionally, GWMG is pleased to announce the appointment of David Murphy as Commercial Director of LCM. Mr. Murphy, who has over thirty years of experience in the rare earths sector with LCM, and previously with Johnson Matthey Rare Earth Products where he was General Manager, is responsible for sales, marketing and customer support at LCM.
    All appointments are effective immediately.
    GWMG President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Engdahl said, "These appointments significantly strengthen our management team and our corporate structure. "

     

    Kaiser believes the best value to LCM for GW is these three minds. Is GW using the appointments to promote and raise these guys? No doubt these three guys are smart guys. I think GW knew they needed to raise them to retain them. Moly would have been better off going after these guys rather than GW itself back in the day IMO.
    7 Nov 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    sure seems like they intend to open SKK. David Kennedy moving over tp head that up is a big deal in that he would have had lots of interaction with GQD over at LCM.
    7 Nov 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Largo Resources (LGORF) -- tungsten, vanadium, is up nearly 25% today. I wonder what's going on. I guess the announcement from last week about the loan from the Brazilian government to develop the Maracás Vanadium Project
    7 Nov 2011, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/ssHgoi
    More rare earth companies in China suspending production as prices slide

     

    "In order to check the slide, Ganzhou Rare Earth Mineral Industry, a leading rare earth producer in south China, has also decided to suspend production since October 20, at all its mines and smelting and refining enterprises. An official with the company has been quoted by newswires as saying that the suspension was mainly due to the exhausted quota as well as the preparation for consolidating rare earth mines and building an industry chain in southern areas."

     

    Does GQD now need GWMGF as much as they need them? Sounds like they need a new outlet... they should get cracking then and sign the damn thing!

     

    ps I love electricity!
    7 Nov 2011, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm not convinced GQD is even aware of GW's Head of Terms. These guys say very little about it.
    7 Nov 2011, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe there is a hidden agenda behind the big primary re producers in China (aka, "The Cartel") cutting off production. This is a simple and extremely effective way to starve the hundreds of small refiners (like GQD, reported to be one of the largest of the private operators) who are utterly dependent upon them now that the outlaw mines have been closed down. Already starving, these small companies will start winking out of existance like a cloud of mosquitos encountering a bug zapper.
    8 Nov 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So is GQD a little knife maker likely to be starved by the production control in China? Or is it the big shot GW claims they are and thus will benefit as a survivor? Or is it like the Great Western Minions say- small enough to desperately need the almighty GW, but large enough to be the world's greatest JV partner? Just trying to understand the pumping so I buy enough shares of it of course.:-)
    8 Nov 2011, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GQD is one of the larger private rare earth processors, but very small compared to the Cartel (of course). The smaller guys are doomed, particularly those with no sideline (like making ceramic knives). In a year "small, private, rare earth refiner" will be an oxymoron. A year back there were more than a thousand such companies in China.

     

    The relationship with GWM is a mystery indeed. Its easy to see how they were once suppliers for GWM, but its obvious that they are playing coy with the current situation. I have hinted in the past that they may be a puppet of the Cartel, and thus stringing along GWM to their own ends - and now I'll make it an official "question":

     

    Is GQD just a front for the Cartel, and seeking to either submarine GWM or gain ownership on the cheap?

     

    Its more likely that they have, instead, been engaging in really hard-nosed negotiating tactics with a weak GWM that left too many of its future plans hanging on expectations of a joint venture... But I would believe either scenario.

     

    Assuming that GQD is NOT operating with some hidden agenda, then yes, it may well be that they need GWM a LOT more than GWM needs them (but have cleverly avoided giving that vulnerability away to GWM). The timing for GWM to actually become a valuable asset for GQD (or any potential joint venture candidate) actively INVITES this sort of opportunistic behavior. Leadtime measured in well over a year (minimum, and reality is likely to be more) just means that the better capitalized side of the negotiations has an advantage going in. NOT a recipe for quick, hard and fast agreements.
    8 Nov 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Lynas has a mix of news today:

     

    SMSL and MITI and AELB (and presumably Lynas) are meeting on site of the LAMP at the end of the month for a walk through (http://bit.ly/vKreAv/)

     

    IAEA has acknowledged receipt of Lynas' paperwork (sorry, don't have the link), so that is a positive.

     

    And a minor wrist-slapping that could be interpreted a couple ways...http://bit.ly/teVTEh Lynas has jumped the gun by suggesting any specific timeline at this stage.

     

    I'd be curious what other people think, but my guess is now pre-op approval by early December, shipping of ore from then, LAMP completion by late December/early January and first trial feeds by mid/late January.
    8 Nov 2011, 05:43 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF trading a little unusual (for it lately) .. vol ok and up. (two things it has not been)
    of course, the day is young yet but just a heads up. News ? Maybe? Finally? blah blah blah.

     

    But it is up more than the rest....

     

    ps. Did you guys see SHZ yesterday?
    8 Nov 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I am just skeptical on reading into anything when volume is low given the secondary offering nearing, as agents will likely do what they have to in order to support or move ahead share price.

     

    The move on the pinks does seem a bit unusual, and I am itching, but my past experience has made me possibly a bit over cautious.
    8 Nov 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I don't blame you ... I feel the same! It's trading above the offering price so maybe it is closed already. But this is definitely more movement than it has been showing lately.
    8 Nov 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Freo,
    I agree with your timeline and think it is more the result of slow construction on the LAMP then Malaysian approvals. I can't imagine that the Malaysian government believes an on site walk through will satisfy "Save Malaysia". I think they are doing this to look cooperative since the LAMP won't be done yet anyway.

     

    My interpretation of Mustapa's comments is he is an arrogant jackass to the highest degree. He should shut his mouth. Lynas has a right and an obligation to provide a timeline to their investors. As a government official he should know better then to comment on the issue. I guess he sees himself as a Castro or Chavez type. I hardly think the thoughtless comments will attract himself to international business.

     

    I think in his efforts to be defensive about his governments importance, he instead appears amateur and third world like. Malaysia is far too developed a country with too much potential for this type of lightweight bravado. Mustapa made an ass out of himself, plain and simple (or as they might say in Freo "full stop").

     

    "..one of the 11 criteria was the long-term waste management plan, which Lynas had reportedly submitted to the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) on July 18 but has yet to be analysed.
    http://bit.ly/rkQwtI

     

    But note:
    “Lynas’ documents are in their third revision and will continue to be revised until all conditions are met,” he said. “The government has decided to make the documents transparent. So we don’t want a document that we have approved and made transparent to receive a hammering from the rakyat.”
    He said certain documents, like the ones on waste management, were evolving and questions would remain unanswered until the pre-operating stage was over.
    http://bit.ly/vPfR0r/
    8 Nov 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Strong trading on GW this morning without news. Will the $0.63 pricing hold on Wed?
    8 Nov 2011, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    not sure what you are saying Chi. I have not had coffee yet so maybe I am being dense.

     

    "The Company expects that closing of the Offering will occur on or before November 10, 2011."

     

    It could be closed by now. It certainly isn;t trading like it was earlier in the week.
    8 Nov 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    Wouldn't they announce closing?
    8 Nov 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    can I just say that I am loving the gold miners breakout!
    8 Nov 2011, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    spoke a wee bit too soon on the miners. Haha... we will see what happens next.
    8 Nov 2011, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi are you bored or something? You are never going to get anywhere over there.
    8 Nov 2011, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Funny, second I read this I knew exactly what you were talking about.
    8 Nov 2011, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, it really is a small, small world... Particularly the rare earth investing part.

     

    I think your advice to Chi is likely to prove accurate, Aq.

     

    BUT it could be fun to watch. Popping some virtual popcorn now...
    8 Nov 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    @matt and TB... too funny. Its like Clash of the Titans or something. Popcorn indeed.
    8 Nov 2011, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind entertaining you guys. But I'll have to wait till tonight after I get my toddlers in bed.
    8 Nov 2011, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    why now though? What made you feel like picking a fight? He has been there forever so I am just curious.
    8 Nov 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I've been a reader over there forever when I had Neo Materials and Montero Mining. I stopped by at GWG and saw wwwater doing his usual BS and just decided after all of the delays saying 2012 or sooner was over the top. I figure I make some quick comments then maybe throw a link to here and to http://bit.ly/tTG4dA along the way. That's all.
    8 Nov 2011, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    is that your board? It kinda looks like a Lynas board to me and with smattering of bashing GW for good measure.
    8 Nov 2011, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here is a snippet from a comment I posted to the QC back in 2009 on the topic of the RE sector:

     

    "During the Clinton era, the US dumped its entire strategic stockpile of rare earth metals and minerals - and fans of the China+Clinton conspiracy theories can take that as they will.

     

    At the same time, China was embarking on a program to corner the world's production of rare earths, which they did when they undercut virtually ALL competitor's prices, an easy thing for a nation state masquerading as various corporations to do (ha, something all fans of the current HealthCare bill should think about).

     

    However, this is like any such move, should they then elect to constrict the supply, the price will spike upward, and voila, those older mines located in benighted nations still retaining a tiny capitalist enclave (the US, Australia, Canada and even South Africa spring to mind) re-open their mines, and we're back in the business. If the strategic threat is actually noticed by the leaders of some of these nations (presumably not talking about the U.S. here), they MIGHT even step in and make sure that sufficient stockpiles are stored to prevent a similar gambit in the future...

     

    As for the article, it breaks no new ground, but certainly does sound still another alarm about the 800 pound Chinese gorilla standing over next to the industrial buffet table with a meat cleaver in his paw.

     

    I just lost a little money with AMLM last week, got out quick, though I continue to watch. Several interesting privately held companies sitting on many of the best mines here in the U.S., maybe some of our Canadian contributors can look at what is what there...

     

    Neodymium (lanthanoid ore) is the most frequently cited case, a key ingredient in powerful permanent magnets (all very "green" nowadays, note that every Prius must have a big chunk of this for their motors to work).

     

    I am, however, seeing some fascinating research being done to come up with alternatives, though some of the alternatives just shift from the use of one rare earth to another, LOL."

     

    This was followed later by this comment:

     

    "Don't be fooled by the sitrep in Aussiland.

     

    Reed (prior socialist PM) dropped Global Swarming but then pushed through the Mining Act.

     

    The new PM has reinstated Global Swaming (and their own version of Cap & Tax) and is playing politics with the Mining Act.

     

    Net result: Worse than under Reed for the miners (or any other Aussie stock, for that matter).

     

    As for GWM moving, it was selling for $.14 a few weeks back, and it spiked up close to $.20 this week. 40% move in such a short period is pretty active.

     

    This is one of those things that has yet to penetrate the MSM headlines. There is some thought that this might finally happen with the MolyCorp (MCP) IPO, but I'm thinking that this is a 2 part story.

     

    Part 1: The monopoly finally lowers the boom (as it has been threatening to do for a decade), and squeezes supplies. This happened when the Chinese followed through on their threats to cut supplies to a trickle.

     

    Part 2: Actual shortages start to shut down production and pinch supply of downstream products. Obviously this has NOT happened yet.

     

    Many investors operate with the mistaken idea that the Markets (and by extension, the pundits with the power to "move" markets) are Smart. Better to view them as a very dull mule standing there waiting for the rare passer-by to get their attention with a 2x4 upside their head.

     

    Until the actual shortages show up, and that will be downstream from when the major users run through the supplies they squirrelled away (some buying blackmarket REEs from outlaw Chinese miners).

     

    This is a POTENTIAL shortage of key minerals and metals.

     

    Future likely scenario: Shortages as they occur will have the mule blinking and swatting away flies and looking around dimly for new supplies. At that point the only company ready to do anything for those early emergency/crucial items is likely to be the one closest to finishing a vertically integrated system.

     

    IF the planet reacts quickly (and IF the WTO doesn't convince the Chinese that their scheme for global dominance is a bad idea), the Chinese are likely to discover that they can, indeed, ship plenty of REEs to satisfy the "emergency" shortfall, and the danger that they will undercut all other suppliers at prices too low to match will once again raise its head.

     

    The window when companies like Lynas and GWM can make hay may be very narrow, and the time to act when it arrives may be very short leadtime.

     

    My gauge of the situation is that GWM MIGHT be able to crank up their mine in South Afrika in time to get their foot in the door, but that Lynas cannot, and that the timing of the Chinese is pretty darn good.

     

    If NO other alternatives present themselves and the stockpiles run out, what WILL the world do?

     

    I own a chunk of GWM, just because I am hoping they can pull off a miracle in the nick of time (and get richly rewarded for it) - and also because I hate the idea of Beijing gaining this sort of monopoly power".
    8 Nov 2011, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    wow TB.... just wow. I wish I had a time machine.
    8 Nov 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's what the old QCs and Concentrators on SA are, Aq, a time machine. I copied those 2 comments into the very first REE/Strat. Concentrator. I guess you noticed the bit about $.14 GWM stock in there (it was in response to an observation that GWM stock was "not moving", I think). At the time I was a proponent of investing in rare earth plays like GWM and Lynas (and of course, I still am), despite the really poor charts and low stock values for them back then...

     

    2 years ago. LOL, only in this wacky re sector do you see a 2 year perspective going from "IS there a sector, really, at all?" to the entire planet worrying about the topic.

     

    2 years from now we may be looking at similar increases in stock prices. GWM has gone up 5 times the prices we could buy back then, in almost exactly 2 years. Lynas has seen similar gains. Many of those who saw the early promise of the sector back then lost faith along the way, and sold off before the payday arrived. Now I see a second chance coming, but once again we also have the usual wall of worries ready to work upon our fears.

     

    I think it was both easier and harder to invest toward a better future in 2009 than it is today. Easier because we KNEW we were at the bottom of a really deep hole, and harder because it was difficult to gauge the future (as always), which might be even scarier than the present...
    8 Nov 2011, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    It is a time machine but I want my own time machine so I could go back and invest with you guys! Remember, I am a relative newcomer to this wonderful blog that you have created. And you guys collectively have a huge depth of knowledge that is remarkable. I don't know how I originally found this blog but I am glad that I did.

     

    Now, if you could tell me where GWMGF pps will be in 3 years, I would greatly appreciate that. ;)
    8 Nov 2011, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just like back then, I have an OPINION...

     

    Call it about $2.50 - 3.00.

     

    And for Lynas, about $12.
    8 Nov 2011, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    TB, sure hope your right about $12. sp for Lynas!!
    I'm hoping we get to $6.00....
    8 Nov 2011, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    well that blows my $5 by Christmas theory. I would have had a fighting chance if they would ever announce the JV and financing. I hope you are wrong this time TB and it is much higher than that in 3 years.

     

    ps you have Lynas outperforming Great Western. Well, that would be something finally to see!
    8 Nov 2011, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    What about the number of total of shares / market capitalization / valuation, when you get up there in sp regarding Lynas.

     

    Look at the market cap/ total number of shares with QRM. Much better situation in my opinion.
    8 Nov 2011, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    Put in kiln in Quebec and you might have a point.

     

    But Quest has a lot to prove in the future. QRM is a good explorer right now, with the risks that go with it. Lynas is a producer as soon as they get those yellow sheeted chairs to out vote the disinterested protesters.:-)
    8 Nov 2011, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From my perspective, they will have similar multiples from here forward. I have Lynas at 22kmt by then, and GWM at 5kmt, with a 5x multiple vs current trading range. GWM is probably fairly priced (for their current situation) whereas I feel that Lynas is not, and should be at about $2.30 already. A 5x return is nothing to sneeze at, for either company, in just 2 or 3 years. (or a 100x return for 4 or 5 years for some of us for GWM).

     

    Those jumping on the bandwagon after Lynas cranks up LAMP will still see a nice profit, but the ratio will be lower than those who have already been holding it for a year or two.
    8 Nov 2011, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If it were 2008 and we were talking about the future prospects, I would tend to see more of a level playing field... But its just reality that we ARE in a race to market, and Lynas is the heavy favorite to win the race. And to the winner goes the prize, ie, in this case, a large market cap with powerful prospects for using the muscle to leverage more of the same.

     

    QRM is higher risk and has no chance of winning the race, and is in fact in an entirely different race, ie, one involving certain hree's and infrastructure buildout in a country still seriously debating how to support both extreme environmental goals AND the economic benefits of an aggressive mining and chemical development schedule. This is another layer to the "early producer" advantage, ie, the industry is NOT just climbing a stable hill with environmental and political barriers to success, they are climbing a GROWING mountain where the barriers are growing higher even as the trail gets steeper with every passing day. Early travelers will literally find themselves experiencing EASIER tests compared to those who seek to follow in their footsteps.

     

    This is part of the risk I see for the 2nd tier juniors, and increasingly there are NO "safe" political locations, though of course there continues to be very real differences from one polity to another.
    8 Nov 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    Since we are going back in time a bit. Any comments on J. Kaisers
    views about Lynas Corp? His models see a best case scenario of around $ 4- 5. / sp.

     

    http://bit.ly/t2ThoP...

     

    TB, I agree that first movers advantage can add a lot of zing to the sp.
    8 Nov 2011, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I agree Lynas is not fairly priced IF the Malaysians get out of the way. I have said it before - Chi will take exception most likely- but the chart still says that nothing is written in stone and folks are still taking a wait and see on the permit for LAMP. if approved, it should go back to 2.50+ I guess.

     

    On GWMGF, same deal...just waiting for something to happen. Not going anywhere due to lack of clarity on the financing/JV deal. However, like I said previously-- GWMGF is waiting for something new but LYSCF is waiting for something they thought they already had. I know that is not official TA but that is what I think the charts say. Time will tell.

     

    Should be a very interesting year coming up....but it better not take that long for GW to say something!
    8 Nov 2011, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    I'm taking enough exception elsewhere.:-)
    I think Lynas is fine. Once producing a rapid rise is likely. I think AELB approval gives Lynas a $2 share price.
    First feed is a $3 share price.
    $4 after production.
    And a 10 multiple once proper ramp up is achieved at 11k tpa and then 22k tpa.

     

    GW sees Fiddy cents before it sees $1.:-)
    8 Nov 2011, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Don't count your pennies just yet Chi. As Brian said on Rare Metal ...politics is a funny thing. It ain't over till its over.
    9 Nov 2011, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    I'm not really counting right now. I am waiting and adding. I do not invest based on Malaysian Insider stories. The stories in the Malaysian Insider that never make Bernama or the rest of the Malaysian newspapers do not get the same weight from me. Too much of the Malaysian Insider information throughout this year has proved to altered or fabricated.

     

    Overall, I agree that a political issue exists and was far larger in June. If it causes delays after construction is complete or it grows in size it will be a bigger concern and a red flag. But at this stage I will get this weeks buying opportunity tonight and I will do my add for the week.

     

    That's how I'm playing it. Is there risk? Sure. But I think this is a smart play. I know I talk a lot on the blogs, but first and foremost I am an investor. And overall I am happy with Lynas.
    9 Nov 2011, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    The Malaysian Insider is just out with an article about how AELB says that Lynas is still non-compliant: "Lynas Corp has failed to meet any of the conditions set out by a government review despite filing three proposals so far to obtain a pre-operating licence for its controversial RM1.5 billion rare earth plant, according to the local nuclear regulators."

     

    The many comments following the article also point out how political considerations for the next election is the key driver behind these maneuvers.

     

    http://bit.ly/sZZuaf/
    9 Nov 2011, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    While this is a new article, it's old news. Basically, Lynas's submission to AELB had been knocked back in September. They then re-submitted their application, presumably addressing the issues raised by AELB and that submission is now in AELB's hands and being considered. One would hope that, after 3 or 4 goes at it, they will get it right. This is as much about AELB showing they are not mucking around. Also, because Lynas has agreed to make the final submission public (not in accordance with standard AELB policy) I'm sure AELB will want to have something that will withstand any outside scrutiny. Personally, my only concern with this new information is whether Lynas is really (or is capable at this stage) addressing the issues or whether they are trying to kick the can down the road.
    9 Nov 2011, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    The Malaysian Insider does see this situation as political. I think the politics are there, but are secondary. The LAMP gets approved early December. Freo gave a great timeline above.
    9 Nov 2011, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas on their own started out this year trying to kick the can down the road. That was stupid in my opinion. My guess is they were still trying to kick it down the road at first with ALEB. That was even dumber and has put them on a 4th submission. But this process should lead to approval.

     

    I think Lynas could do this better but it will end up done and that is what matters to me. If that makes AELB the good guys for having patience and the right priorities and understanding, I'm fine with that. Investing is very result oriented. As long as Lynas gets approved I will be happy.
    9 Nov 2011, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    Chi, agree with you and Freo on bottom line. I do think, however, it's good to be aware of the "new" headlines coming out of Malaysia which may influence short term PPS and less informed retail investors (i.e. buying opportunity).
    mj
    9 Nov 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Precisely my thinking as well, Mercy. I have a $1.14 buy target for Lynas right now, and this sort of thing is probably behind today's dip (close to my target, but not quite there just yet). If I weren just entering this tock, I would consider this dip buyable at this point.
    9 Nov 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    (AVL) http://mwne.ws/tj93kB

     

    "Results are positive but progress has been slower than originally anticipated. This could result in a minor delay in the completion of the bankable feasibility study, but the overall schedule to production remains unaffected at this time."
    9 Nov 2011, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Food for thought, nothing specific to REE's but about China in general, Great Read!

     

    Best,
    Matt

     

    ++++++++++

     

    http://bit.ly/u9kVvx
    9 Nov 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, other than those 400 DOW POINTS, how was everyone's day? Geez. I guess we'll get 'em tomorrow. I think I might have a light dinner as the ASX tonight could be a poor digestif. I feel a Bundy overproof night coming on. :-) Take care everyone.
    9 Nov 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Why don't you check in with you new friends;)
    9 Nov 2011, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    haha... that was a good one Matt
    9 Nov 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I'm sure it's all my fault over there and they'll make me the punching bag which is fine. Overall I've enjoyed the whole walkabout for now. The insults are easy to ignore when you don't even know the guys. And it is a good break from the Malaysian politics. The pricing or repricing on the GW offering should have an announcement one way or another very soon. Something to watch.
    9 Nov 2011, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    And one last piece of advice...
    I would never tell anyone to lie to their spouse. But if you already lie to them, this is a lousy night to start coming clean.:-)

     

    Just kidding guys. My wife is my personal accountant and has the desk next to me overlooking my shoulder. Her question: How did it go? Well, sweetheart we are well behaved but deep in the red district tonight.
    9 Nov 2011, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF) Two rather large trades on the Pinks, are we seeing evidence that the offering is not holding up or if so at a reduced price?

     

    Best,
    Matt
    10 Nov 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Did you all catch this trouble in Malawi?
    http://bit.ly/uouXZi
    10 Nov 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, that's one that has been lurking since Lynas first mentioned Malawi. Its the "Africa Risk Factor", something that is present everywhere on the continent (though to varying degrees, of course).

     

    I consider this as endemic of multitudes of junior explorers (and though Lynas is overall far past this status, this particular project is a typical example). There's an excellent chance that Lynas will end up suing Patel and friends to recover whatever they have invested in the project, should the courts prevail in the Constitutional crisis with the Malawi administration.

     

    Every junior miner that gets athwart the native tribes and the Canadian government runs a similar risk.

     

    Thanks for the link, OG.
    10 Nov 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Trade is quiet but a lot is going on behind the sceens:
    Moly has an earnings call after the close.
    GW should announce they priced or are repricing or have another approach to the capital raise?
    Neo Materials reported a good quarter
    Lynas is having some brokers/analysts and customers for a guided tour of the LAMP this coming weekend before the 7th International Rare Earths Conference they are hositing in Kowloon Shangri-La Hotel, Hong Kong
    November 15-17 2011

     

    This is a big conference with most names presenting and/or attending:
    Programme (edited for list)
    Tuesday 15 November
    18:00 – 20:00 Welcome Reception kindly sponsored by Great Western Minerals Group

     

    Wednesday 16 November
    09:15 “Rare earth markets and supply/demand dynamics: Stormy seas, fog and shoals”. Constantine Karayannopoulos, President & CEO, Neo Material Technologies Inc., Canada;
    09:45 ”China’s rare earth market”, by Zhang Zhong, General Manager, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd
    11:15 “New sources of supply – Lynas”, by Nick Curtis, Executive Chairman, Lynas Corporation Ltd., Australia;
    11:40 “The next rare earth era: Global diversity in
    rare earth manufacturing”, by Mark Smith, CEO, Molycorp Inc., USA;
    12:05 Jiangxi Rare Earth & Rare Metals Tungsten Group, China;
    13:00 – 14:30 Luncheon kindly sponsored by Avalon Rare Metals Inc
    15:20 Baotou Research Institute of Rare Earths, PR China;

     

    Thursday 17 November
    09.30 “Rare earths for the phosphors market”, by Jean-Guy Le Helloco, Electronics BU Director, Rhodia, France;
    13:15 Close and luncheon kindly sponsored by Avalon Rare Metals Inc

     

    Attendees
    Arafura Resources Ltd
    Avalon Rare Metals Inc
    Dacha Strategic Metals
    Frontier Rare Earths
    Great Western Minerals Group Ltd
    Greenland Minerals & Energy
    Hastings Rare Metals
    Hudson Resources Inc
    Kimberley Rare Earths Ltd
    Lynas Corporation Ltd
    Matamec Explorations Inc
    Molycorp Inc
    Montero Mining
    Namibia Rare Earths Inc
    Natural Resources Canada
    Neo Material Technologies Inc
    Northern Minerals Ltd
    Pacific Wildcat
    Pele Mountain Resources Inc
    Quest Rare Minerals
    Rara Terra Minerals Corp
    Rare Capital,Rare Earths Element Fund
    Rare Element Resources Ltd
    Rhodia
    Tasman Metals Ltd
    Tetra Tech,
    Texas Rare Earth Resources Corporation
    Ucore Rare Metals Inc
    Vale SA

     

    Accenix Ventures LLC, Advanced Materials Japan Corporation,Agrium, Albemarle Chemicals (Shanghai) Co Ltd, ,Albemarle Corp,Alcoa,Alkane Resources Ltd,Ames Laboratory – Iowa State University,AMT&C Group Ltd,A&M Minerals and Metals Ltd,Arc International,Arc International FranceArgonaut Funds Management,Asset Growth Funds,Atlas Magnetics Netherlands B.V.,Auer-Remy GmbH,Australian Nuclear Science & Technology Organisation,Avannaa Resources,Axis House,Bank of America Merrill Lynch,Baotou Rare Earth Hi-Tech Zone,Baotou Research Institute of Rare Earths,BASF Corporation,BASF (China) Company Ltd,BGR,Blue Line Corporation,Birmingham University,Bosch (China) Investment Ltd,Brose China Co Ltd,Brose Fahrzeugteile GmbH & Co BRP Asia Limited,BT Magnet-Technologie GmbH,Canada Rare Earths Inc,Cappelen Holding asCBMM,CEC Rare Earth Corp,Cedrus Investments (http://bit.ly/sCKmD2) Ltd,Cheung On Industrial Limited,China Rare Earth Holdings Limited,China Rare Earth Information Center,Chuo Denki Kogyo Co Ltd,Citi Investment Research,C&L Development Corp,Cutting Edge Holdings (http://bit.ly/sCKmD2) LtdDeutsche Bank,DJ Carmichael,Doral Pty Ltd,Dorfner Anzaplan,Effective Energy N.V.,Elkem Bj?lvefossen Foundry DivisionElkem Foundry China,Eramet,Eramet Research,Euro Pacific Canada,Fangxing Rare Earth Co Ltd of Sichuan Province,Ferro CorporationFuning Rare-Earth Industrial Corporation,Galileo Resources Plc,General Electric,Geologic Resource Partners LLC,GMG Ltd,Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia P/L,Grillo-Werke AG,Grirem Advanced Material Co Ltd,Geological Survey of Japan,General Resource Corporation,Gold & Discovery FundHains Engineering Company Ltd,Hefa Rare Earth Canada Co Ltd,Honeywell International,ICT Group,Indus Capital Advisors (Singapore) Pte Ltd,Indus Capital Advisors (http://bit.ly/sCKmD2) Ltd,Industrial Development Corporation,Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Survey Map Institute,Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd,Innovation Metals Corporation, INTERCAT/ Johnson Matthey,International Atomic Energy Agency, (http://bit.ly/vLcjhz REE Trades Limited,Investec Bank Australia,Jiangxi Copper Industry Co Ltd,Jiangxi Rare Earth & Rare Metals Tungsten Group Co Ltd,Jean Goldschmidt International SA,Kay Investment, Lipmann Walton & Co Ltd,LKAB,London Scandinavian Metallurgical Co Ltd,LSM,' Magnesium Elektron,Macquarie Securities,M Squared Associates Pty Ltd,Material Trading Company Ltd,Mekong Investment Limited,MEL Chemicals,Minelco Asia Pacific Ltd,Metal Economic Research Institute of Japan,Mitsuibishi Australia,Mitsubishi Corporation,Mitsubishi Corporation Unimetals Ltd,Neo Performance Materials (Japan Inc),New Material Corporation. Nichia Corporation,Norwegian Separation Technology,Osram AG,Osram China Lighting Ltd,OSRAM Melco,Palm International Inc,Panasonic Corporation,Pangea International Ltd,Patersons Securities LimitedPentart Industrial Limited,Peter W Harben Inc,Philips ElectronicsPolaris Rare Earth Materials LLC,Polyfer Handesl GmbH/Solikamsk Magnesium Works,Polymagnet LLC,POSCO,RCMPA Polishing Technologies Pvt Ltd, Quimialmel Quox Corporation, RE Metallic International Co Ltd,Ree Minerals,RIST, Rhodia Operations, Rhodia Rare Earths SystemRimbal Pty Ltd,Rittenhouse International Resources LLC,Robert Bosch GmbH,Rosatom,Roskill Information Services Ltd,RSR (Tanzania) Limited,Sanab Limited,Santoku,Corpor... SASOL Germany GmbH, Saudi Geological Survey,Shanghai Heli Material Trading Co Ltd,Shin-Etsu Chemical Co Ltd,Sichuan Jiantong Rare Earth Co Ltd,Sichuan Province Engineering Consultancy & Research Institute,Sichuan Jiangxi Copper Rare Earths Co Ltd, Siemens AG,Silmet Molycorp AS,Sojitz, Corporation, Solikamsk Magnesium Works,Southern Crown Resources Ltd,Sparky Group, Sud-Chemie Catalysts Japan Inc,Sud-Chemie Inc,Sumitomo, Corporation, Tanbreez Mining Greenland,The Anchor House Inc,Todd Corporation,Torrecid Group,Toyotsu Rare Earths Corporation,Toyota Tsusho Corporation,Tradium GmbH, Traxys North America,Treibacher Industrie AG,Tvel Corporation,TU Bergakademie Freiberg,TUC Resources Ltd,TZ Minerals International, Uda Investment Co Ltd,Umicore AG & Co KG,Umicore Automotive Catalysts,U.S. Science & Technology Center, Valeo,Valeo Shanghai,Vestas Nacelles A/S,Vitech Scientific Co Ltd,Wogen Pacific Ltd – Guangzhou Office,Wogen Resources Ltd,Yara International ASA,Zimtu Capital Corporation
    WR Grace & Co
    10 Nov 2011, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas in midst of Malawi crisis
    November 10, 2011
    http://bit.ly/t1UZ8Y
    My opinion:
    Someone felt unfairly treated by the government going back to 2003. They have been fighting the issue for a while most likely. Now their legal people told them to notify everyone in the chain of title. So Lynas gets put on notice and puts the announcement out before the AGM. Good disclosure IMO.
    I think if a suit is filed Lynas would get named in the chain of title but I'm not sure a suit at this stage eight years later has much teeth in it. I doubt it. Overall, minimal news IMO. We'll have to wait and see.
    10 Nov 2011, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    There's nothing minimal about this, other than the casual and minimalized way Lynas announced it.
    <The High Court of Malawi has ordered that the Kangankunde tenements in question – potentially a billion-dollar project – not be transferred at all. It has ordered that the rights to the rich rare earths deposit be returned to Michael Saner, a South African geologist who controlled the exploration licence in 2003.
    In fact, the dispute threatens to turn into a full-blown political and constitutional crisis in the African republic as the Mines Ministry and Government are in contempt of the Malawi High Court.>

     

    <Lynas had been informed for some time of the gravity of the claims over KGK. The market should arguably have been informed much earlier.>

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/tHAJxJ
    10 Nov 2011, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OG,
    That is The Age's position on the matter.
    I don't see their side of it (nor does the market yet). If the project unwinds that would be a bigger deal. I think the sale to Lynas goes through due to the time span and value change so Saner ends up with a damages claim against the government. Perhaps, Saner ends up with $4m USD (What Lynas paid the Malawi Government for this deposit) but not the $100M pursued in his suit against the Malawi Government. Note Lynas is not named in the suit and is not yet being sued.

     

    The Malawi High Court decision has value on it's face, but the unjust enrichment and the development of Kangankunde by Lynas make this remedy of returning the site to Saner seem unlikely IMO. There also is a procedural problem with the court decision since the ruling is in a suit Lynas was never named in so Lynas never had a chance to assert their interests. This procedural fact would also explain why Lynas has not announced anything earlier. An earlier announcement would show knowledge and hurt a procedural claim by Lynas most likely.

     

    I suppose the claim could be stronger depending on details (ie what all parties knew and when they knew it before they took action). But I find The Age's view of this ignores prior precedent of virtually every African mining issue I have seen in the past.
    10 Nov 2011, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    All those things you say make sense. I don't know how you know what Lynas has had a chance to assert, however. I question that assumption.
    Plus, anytime you have the highest court in the land ignored by another branch of government, (especially in an African nation--where they are trying so hard to bring in investment dollars and behave in a stable way) there is real trouble and uncertainty. (Just look at what the US Government created with eminent domain, as an example here in the USA of a government land grab and special treatment to crony companies).
    The fact is, the property could be held hostage for a long, long time and ( utlimately) cost Lynas plenty.

     

    The value to the 2003 holder is not $4 Mil, imo. It's much higher than that, though we can not quantify it with the information we have now.
    10 Nov 2011, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OG,
    Very valid points about Malawi governing and the caution to investment (which I would extend to most of Africa in general).

     

    And yes, being the highest court should matter. To be honest, my reaction from a legal perspective was how does the highest court make a ruling with this kind of procedural disorder!?!?

     

    I'm not sure we can say the Malawi government is ignoring the high court. They seem to have allowed the suit and verdict.

     

    I assume The Age has something wrong here. Either it is a first ruling with no appeals yet, in which case it is not Malawi's high court (court titles can be deceptive-Ex. New York State Court System titles versus Federal Court titles). Or there is more to decide on the remedy side.

     

    And if we conclude that Malawi does not have the procedure in place to resolve the governing conflict my first guess would be the common law would be used to address the procedure problem.

     

    If that is the case I would stick with my $4mil damages conclusion. It could be higher if Saner was pushing his claim early rather than waiting till Lynas drilled out the project and found the value. But my guess is he is late to the party since it is eight years later and this is finally hitting the press without Lynas ever being named in the suit.

     

    And it should be noted that the dispute is whether Saner's rights lapsed in 2003 and was the Malawi government right to take the property back. So Saner's last actions on the property could go way back leading the Malawi government to think his rights had lapsed. In Africa, I would not be surprised if his original claim was created under a different regime as well.

     

    Could the property be held up for a long time? In the US definitely, especially if we could make it political like we always seem to do. But in this area Malawi may be a lot smarter than us. The country is small, hungry for investment (based on how they have dealt with Lynas so far), and wants the Kangankunde jobs while the rare earth race is on.

     

    That said this suit is not good news for anyone except Saner maybe. Overall, I value your reasoning and see you could be right even if I currently have a different conclusion. And most of all I agree we need more information to know the situation. And to be fair to The Age they have to write the story when its news and I get that too.
    10 Nov 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Here is an overview of Malawi that contains a description of their court system:
    http://bit.ly/us9T43

     

    From this description, there is Supreme Court of Appeal above the High Court.
    10 Nov 2011, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good research OG. That's kinda why I didn't jump on The Age for that. It's a common quick thinking Intern type of mistake in law firms.
    10 Nov 2011, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good news for GW.
    Their Private Placement closed at $0.63.
    http://bit.ly/sxjZeA
    10 Nov 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for posting the link, Chi, saved me the trouble. Good news indeed. Removes one medium-sized worry from their wall...
    10 Nov 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Not a bad close for GW.... above the offering on both pinks and toronto.
    10 Nov 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    MCP misses

     

    now under the 21dma... gotta hold 35ish
    10 Nov 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Estimate (rosy analists) of $.70/share, hit $.67. Converence call follows. Spin will flow like wine...

     

    MCP is STILL in a major construction, pre-production phase, and an earnings miss is therefore just about certain when the pundits have such wildly variable targets on this company. This hoopla is hard to reconcile with any sort of longer view, but then again, the shorts will go ape over this. I would be surprised if it hit $32-33, but it might. I still feel (like for the last year or so) that $38 is a key point to pay attention to for this stock.

     

    I still have a plan to take further profits when it hits $44+, but it looks like that won't be happening this week, LOL.

     

    This stumble by MCP may trigger similar short attention for Lynas, GWM, etc. It has done so in the past.
    10 Nov 2011, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    yeah not exactly great to have the perceived "leader" miss. There is a teeny gap around 32.60 but looks like 35 would be a good support if it doesn't break that in the morning. Guess it depends on what Smith has to say.
    10 Nov 2011, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP chose NOT to recognize sale of $37m to SilMet, which is probably the "right thing" to do longer term (and less deceptive, though recognizing the "earnings" now would be more popular with short term investors gambling on a pop today).

     

    Its important to realize that MCP is not really followed by many analists, and the new one they just attracted a few weeks back (Piper Jaffray, I think, running on memory banks only here) pegged a high $.84 estimate, which skewed the averages (ie, this would be a "beat", not a "miss", except for the newbie analist shooting too high). Nevertheless, market expectations (and the huge numbers of permabear shorters that still congregate around this stock) will probably push this one down.
    10 Nov 2011, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    A S.A. contributor thinks they are outperforming by certain measures.
    I would think that earnings reports would be more newsworthy once Phase 1 gets closer to completion. I'm still on my wait and see stance.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Nov 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Its important to realize that CNBC shills for Moly like nobody's business. What other stock gets kit glove BS with their report like Moly? Why? Because the insiders making a mint are tied to shops that furnish guests?
    All the same the Moly spin game is impervious to earnings and father time. No doubt the call will say Phoenix is so great we should ignore the miss. And no doubt the analysts will say the empty piles of earth at Mountain Pass as just about done. But as a long term investor in Lynas I see Phoenix bound for a delay and the Lynas first mover advantage widening. Still, I remain open minded and look forward to the information inside the spin that is the signature of most Moly calls.
    10 Nov 2011, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Was surprised to hear Tim Seymour on Fast Money, whose opinion I usually respect, diss MCP because of its PE.
    10 Nov 2011, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sounds like the usual confusion there to me.
    10 Nov 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    oops MCP just broke 35
    10 Nov 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, if you take the new earnings and the after hours price, maybe Timmy is buying here?:-)
    10 Nov 2011, 06:07 PM Reply Like
  • Evestars14
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    What is the biggest question Moly's management needs to answer that was not answered on the call?
    10 Nov 2011, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    How many man hours do they estimate for the completion of Phoenix Phase 1? and for Phase 2?
    http://bit.ly/rKcWSg
    Slide 18
    500,000 Hours complete with no lost time accidents at Mountain Pass
    Compared to Lynas over 5 mil man hours LTI free
    http://bit.ly/nYPgdR
    Moly-Phoenix is about a $750 million budget that must involve big man hours. How many is the estimate so we can further gage progress.
    10 Nov 2011, 11:47 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    It might be a good idea for them by now to be more definitive about what is meant by Phase 2 of Project Phoenix. Or does news like that wait until after the holidays?
    http://bit.ly/urZgPo=[UNIQID]
    11 Nov 2011, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    MCP call transcript.
    10 Nov 2011, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    For the BLM's* decisions on Molycorp and Kern River Gas related projects, contact J. Najar at the Needles field office. By clicking on Najar's name, an email window will open.
    *Bureau of Land Management
    http://on.doi.gov/vJseuQ
    11 Nov 2011, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    These construction delays, constant protesting are getting dragged out and the lack of a long term storage plan is making me second guess my holdings.Not looking good for Lynas.
    10 Nov 2011, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think Lynas looks great when you focus on the company. The construction delay is frustrating but the Quarterly Report shows great progress in the photos and the delay appears to be a few weeks. Curtis gave that impression on the call.
    The protesting is not constant. The protests have sharply declined in number and frequency since the Father's Day protest. The politics seem manageable to me. Malaysia Insider feels differently. I disagree and added to LYC last night. I'm glad I did. My prediction: AELB approval in early December and lows in November are never seen again in Lynas.
    10 Nov 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Northern has published details of 2 major shareholders selling off their holdings recently (about 1.5million shares): http://bit.ly/t22z4U
    10 Nov 2011, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I guess they don't want to wait. I understand but I will add down the road. Nice presentation out now:
    http://bit.ly/soKDTa
    10 Nov 2011, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    NTU has nothing to offer except empty news. They will never make it.
    11 Nov 2011, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I disagree but I'm not sure what "empty news" means. But the drill results and the focus of the current presentation look good to me.
    11 Nov 2011, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Yes Lynas looks good as a company but I think they are a reflection of N. Curtis and as we all know his previous actions with Crown still linger with Institutional investors. Not having a long term storage plan in place prior to all the developmental/construc... costs are reckless.

     

    http://bit.ly/tmNfyy/
    11 Nov 2011, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • scvusa
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    I will never understand how you all are so enamored of Molycorp. It is mining NOTHING except the pockets of the bag holders. I will also never get why you all are such bashers of the company that will most likely be the first to produce heavies outside of China AND might just beat to market Lynas (LAMP not going so hot) and Molycorp (big scam) heavy AND otherwise. The management is, IMO, completely trustworthy and with integrity,in sharp contrast to Moly. Whatever...
    11 Nov 2011, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    "South African Official Barred" is the title of the article in today's WSJ about the ANC's suspending Malema for 5 years for "bringing the party into disrepute and sowing divisions with in it." He was found not guilty of racism and intolerance. Last month he led a march of 5000 protestors demanding mining nationalization and economic wealth redistribution.
    11 Nov 2011, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    MCP will beat Lynas to market the way things are going for Lynas.
    11 Nov 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    35 did not hold on (MCP). I guess it will try to fill that teeny gap at 32.60. If that doesn't hold then it is obviously going to test the recent low.
    11 Nov 2011, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    From a TA perspective I agree.
    But even on the fundamentals, what are the upcoming catalysts for this trading favorite? I mean we saw numbers, guidance, Phoenix pictures, and got all of the updates. It seems its time for them to just get to work. But without the pumping there is still a high valuation and they will need time to earn that valuation. I think they can still trade lower.
    11 Nov 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    NTU is clearly 5 or 6 years out. Not worth mentioning.
    11 Nov 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    I'll bite and disagree with the "not worth mentioning" part. I comment here rarely as I'm not the most technically astute person in this room by a long shot (tipping my hat in Chihawk's, Tripleblack's, and the rest of the gang's direction with gratitude), but NTU's (NOURF.PK) property qualities, geography, management, investors, and all the qualities that make it a good takeover candidate as well, make it my only rare earth position right now. Among things discussed in this blog I also own (IAALF.PK). That's it for me currently.

     

    I'll probably add Lynas (LYSDY.PK) back again in a few weeks, but I started averaging down too early on the last move down, and sold out at break even (which will not be break even, if I cancel out the portion of the last sale that was losses by buying it back without waiting a month from my sale date).
    11 Nov 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I still can't work up much enthusiasm about NTU's rare earth holdings. Their Brown Range diggings are too far away from surfaced highways in the Outback to be of much use in the short term. It would mean that somebody with some clout would have to invest in upgrading the haul roads of several dozens of miles in length to the nearest graveled highway, the Duncan Road, going to the nearest town of Halls Creek. The ores would then be sent from there on a modern paved highway to the port at Wyndham. Their John Galt prospects are bordered on the east by the Purnululu Conservation Reserve and the Mabel Downs Crown Land to the south. Purnululu is strongly influenced by the United Nations for being part of the Purnululu World Heritage Site. I'm still not sure if any miners care to be neighbors with the United Nations particularly. Mabel Downs is just downstream on the Frank River drainage and is controlled by the government. The government will be certain to raise concerns if there is any pollution from mining coming from upstream. It all smacks of heavy government involvement, lobbying and serious negotiations being brought into the mix. I hope it works out for them.
    I like their other kinds of holdings, though. I hope they can refrain from selling their easily accessible phosphate properties in the Northern Territory, for instance. Phosphate is fairly scarce and valuable in that area of the world.
    11 Nov 2011, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    There seems to be a chance that the highway networks might be improved in Northwestern Australia simply for strategic considerations. That would tend to help the miners in the region get their ores to where industries can make good use of them.
    http://bit.ly/rr5KkD
    12 Nov 2011, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    TA is meaningless on MCP and lynas.
    11 Nov 2011, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I kinda disagree with that on MCP at the moment. The easy trade right here is you are interested is by here 33.73 ish put a stop at the LOD. If it is more than a bear flag and clears 34.59 move your stop up.
    If you are interested....
    11 Nov 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Aq, Good time to add MCP. Dalman still states a $70 target.
    11 Nov 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Copperone
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    NTU is one of numerous juniors that wont make it unless they are bought out. Thats a no brainer.
    11 Nov 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Moly is hitting new day lows but it does not seem to be effecting the other stocks much. Very different then the JPM down grade day when all got hurt. I guess the miss and sell down are seen as company specific and not based on REE pricing or demand. I wonder if people see the additional funding for acceleration as hurting the on budget claim they restated in the call? Anyone reading any interesting comments out there? This is a pretty quiet 14% drop if such is possible.
    11 Nov 2011, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    MCP missed both top and bottom line estimates. Now they're being punished.
    11 Nov 2011, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree OG.
    That looks like it is the full story and maybe I'm just trying to over think it. I mean I guess the punishment fits all things considered.
    11 Nov 2011, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks OG.
    I read that and a few similar. What I'm wondering is if anyone is saying anything beyond the numbers.
    11 Nov 2011, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    I don't recall seeing this posted - apologies if it's a repeat.

     

    "GOP lawmakers target competition for rare earths"

     

    http://bit.ly/v9FVxa

     

    Thanks to GlobeTrade @ Investorshub for the link.

     

    Nothing really new or that we don't know already.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Nov 2011, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18493) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): "South African Official Barred"

     

    http://on.wsj.com/vgrpV0

     

    Sorry that all I could find was WSJ.

     

    WHOOPS! Found a full article.

     

    http://bit.ly/ssyoHH

     

    HardToLove
    11 Nov 2011, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Gareth Hatch wrote his interpretation of the MCP investor call.
    http://bit.ly/uy2hnD/
    12 Nov 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Valley Boy,
    You have a unique research skill set and approach towards stocks. A subject came up that I think you could provide great insight to with your research talents. On the link OG posted above:
    http://bit.ly/vWw9AT

     

    on comments 17 and 18 a blogger named Poncho 462 posed an interesting issue. He said in part:

     

    "It is my understanding that at least one key problem at the moment for MCP is the lack of permit to build the needed natural gas pipeline to fuel the only part of Phoenix (phase) one currently under actual construction, which is the electrical generation plant. ...
    Now, If they have no fuel pipeline permit for their generating plant (nearly built), and they have no construction currently underway for any of the Phoenix project infrastructure, Can you explain how they could possibly complete the 19,000 TPA phase one and begin production by the end of September 2012...
    I reviewed the website again, ...and they seem to have removed the video of the pipeline route. I did see in the flyover video a line of trucks doing something in the pit, described as mining. Such was not the case just last week when I visited the site."

     

    This guys view makes sense to me on it's surface. But what I wonder is if you know about a permit issue involving this pipeline and is there government records supporting Poncho's claim?
    I appreciate your thoughts or information if you get the chance.
    13 Nov 2011, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi- Poncho is a big believer in GW. You sure you want to trust that guy's opinion? ;) Just saying!

     

    He hangs over at the Yahoo board but I don't suggest you go over there to stir things up as it is a complete cesspool of harrassment-- yahoo style. -- and you have to look very hard for anything of substance. He is a smart guy. I wish he would move to another place.
    13 Nov 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the gas pipeline is still hung up on in the regulatory approval process, chihawk. I would think if the Mountain Pass Lateral is still tied up in the process by Summer 2012, the gas would have to be trucked to the generating plant. That would be a bit easier to accomplish now that the truck lanes on Interstate 15 going over Mountain Pass have been constructed as of early in 2010. The freeway is now six lanes going over the pass instead of four lanes.
    The permit would have to be granted to Kern River Gas Transmission Company. They propose to build a lateral to the Mountain Pass Mine from their main transmission line connecting the gas rich counties of Lincoln County, Wyoming, with Kern County, California. The transmission line crosses Keany Pass located north of the Mountain Pass Mine thereby constituting the northern boundary of the Clark Mountain Unit of Mojave National Preserve. The lateral would connect the mine to the transmission line close by the eastern boundary of the Clark Mountain Unit. The lateral would go through tortoise habitat on the upper alluvial slopes on the eastern edges of the Clark Mountain Range.
    Here's a description of the main transmission line.
    http://bit.ly/uMIhT6
    Here's a description of the lateral.
    http://bit.ly/tgMbzx
    A map of the lateral is shown on page 25 of this presentation.
    http://bit.ly/uyttpf
    The regulatory delay can be described by comparing the two Federal Register notices of different dates. You might want to scroll down a little on Page 62397 to navigate to the start of the second notice dated October 2011.
    http://1.usa.gov/o1oaIE
    http://1.usa.gov/ts23jf
    The delay appears to have more to do with the impact on the tortoise population than any other factor.
    For BLM's role about Kern River's gas meter decision, the contact is Najar at the Needles Field Office.
    http://on.doi.gov/uNo5q6
    Some government discussions can be viewed by clicking on the links at this Federal Energy Regulatory Commission webpage.
    http://bit.ly/vVumLK
    Molycorp must be confident that Kern River Gas will eventually obtain the regulatory approval to build the lateral. Molycorp has to provide for tortoise disturbance mitigation efforts in any case. It is an interesting story to follow.
    http://bit.ly/t6tQZK
    13 Nov 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This is great research VB. It looks like there is a lot of ground to cover here. I see what you are saying about the pipeline and the tortoise population. I know in the last few months Molycorp started talking about the tortoise preservation and on their call they say starting up three months early but did not say construction complete in April 2012 which would be a three month acceleration from their earlier construction complete in July 2012.
    But even if all goes as planned with Kern River I think commissioning without the gas line permit is not possible. Yes, they can truck in gas, but they have other power already. So if co-gen power is Phoenix (and I think this is a big chunk of the cost savings) then you need to power to commission it. And if I understand Poncho right, they really need the power to properly build Phoenix as well.
    So if I add it all up Moly seems to lack, man hours and energy and has mounds of dirt with minimal construction. Down the road this could work out, but I don't see 2012 at all.
    13 Nov 2011, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    He can like GW and be a smart guy. I don't I have the same full portfolio view as anyone. But considering the research, the guy is thorough. If he gave me the same great research in a GW bull case, I would rethink that view (believe it or not).

     

    More to the point I'd welcome him anywhere on the net. I think I talked to him once before on TMR covering Steen drilling and the relationship between resource expansion and TREO averages. He was very optimistic about Steen but also stuck to facts then. Overall a good guy I'd be happy to see here or anywhere.

     

    It is true that I ignore the Yahoo boards for the reasons you mention and the board format bothers me. And the Yahoo boards that are active enough have better choices IMO.
    13 Nov 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    You are correct about Poncho, he has been a leader on the Yahoo board, makes good points and is a staunch GWM supporter. Stay away from the Yahoo board, the posting there has been ruined by an individual and apparently they can't get his IP (internet protocol) address and port number to correct the problem. Anyway, Poncho would be a good addition to the board…

     

    It is my understanding that co-generation uses a fossil fuel to run a generator to create electrical power. However, unlike electrical power, the heat from the exhaust is also used in processes that require such heat, making the whole power (and energy) process much more efficient. Electrical power is great but Nat Gas is far better. It is probably why NC chose Malaysia with it's tremendous Nat Gas resources.

     

    Interesting Poncho should note the lack of infra-structure at Moly. I pulled Steenkamp up on google maps and I saw very little in the way of any kind of infrastructure. Maybe someone can fill in some color here?
    13 Nov 2011, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think Gareth made a great point about Moly's real situation. I put my man hours point into an article that contains the slides in the links I mention. I think it makes the man hours point much clearer. Check out the link if you are interested:
    http://bit.ly/s7Pcha/
    12 Nov 2011, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2430) | Send Message
     
    Latest article on Lynas' Malawi claim from the Sydney Morning Herald today. It provides some historical sequencing details: http://bit.ly/vOt2ul
    13 Nov 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Clearly this dispute is larger than Lynas has led on, but I'm not sure I understand Saner's apparent "media approach" either. For now I think we will have to wait for more facts to know the strength of the claim.

     

    I find the additional commentary by Michael West regarding the success of Lynas in earlier years to be irrelevant to the subject. It also distracts from the facts and business issues IMO. West has a story and Saner may well have a case. I'll stay focused on that and drop the social distractions unless West can connect it to the business story.
    13 Nov 2011, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Chi (and others), how critical to you think Kangankunde is to the future of Lynas?
    14 Nov 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ungawah,
    Kangankunde is not critical to the future of Lynas. It is valuable and if lost or reduced it would reduce the current NPV and thus the share price. Kangankunde offers a second mine source that aides Lynas expansion. But the mine offers a source of elements similar to the Duncan Deposit at a lower ore grade. So long term there is value in Kangankunde, but it does not effect the development into a profitable junior and it's potential earning are about a year and a half away at the earliest based on the last conference call (if memory serves me).

     

    Watch for a presentation to be released in the next day or two for the latest update and to check my comments. The presentation should be for the conference noted above.
    14 Nov 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Malawi revisited, Here are three historical articles that help frame the issues--Saner's license was taken by the President of Malawi, according to the 2004 article!

     

    from 2002
    http://bit.ly/syhWN0
    from 2004:
    http://bit.ly/uoE13K
    from 2009
    http://bit.ly/v98nDp

     

    I searched Michael Saner Rift Valley to come up with the 3 links above.
    13 Nov 2011, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Interesting articles OG, It seems to me that these resources would be most valuable to Lynas and not so much for Saner (or other interested parties)… Lynas (LAMP) is the only facility in the region that can process concentrate and as we all know a facility to process REE's particularly for a deposit this size will cost hundreds of millions to construct...
    13 Nov 2011, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/s87Pmb

     

    http://bit.ly/uTt61w

     

    http://bit.ly/tYOLM5

     

    Stories getting better on the LAMP overall.
    14 Nov 2011, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1633) | Send Message
     
    My thanks to Chi, VB and OG for both original commentary and xlnt research in providing all the info above!

     

    PS -- for those visiting Las Vegas or who live in So Cal, Mountain Pass is spitting distance from I-15 an hour from (SW of) Vegas. Keany Pass is an easy 1-hour drive from Mt Pass by taking what I seem to recall is the Cima Road exit, but it quickly becomes the old Excelsior Mine Road going north. Hang a right (east) at Powerline Road. You'll quickly see why it's called that.

     

    Don't expect to see much about MCP or Kern River at either "location." More snakes than tortoises and more tortoises than people. What a short trip like this does afford is a better sense of the lay of the land and confirmation that you were correct to wonder what aaalllll those different colors of exposed rock and earth were all about. It's been years since I went off-highway exploring there but I do recall it being desolate, geologically interesting, and wonderfully solitary. I went in winter and can verify it does snow in the desert at those elevations...
    14 Nov 2011, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Joseph.
    This was a great concentrator. Great thanks to VB and OG! I really enjoyed the way our info brought more out of each of us. Great job to both of you, I enjoyed it very much and learned a lot.
    14 Nov 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I'm happy to oblige since I enjoy reading up on the Mountain Pass Mine. It brings back memories. I must have driven past the mine a couple of dozen times in my life on my way to my old hiking haunts, Valley of Fire, Kyle Canyon, Red Rock Canyon and more. Even walking the Las Vegas Strip was interesting. I was sorry to hear about the mine when it closed in 2002. It really would make a great story if it can somehow find success again.
    14 Nov 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Back from the Mobile Renaissance Faire! Lots going on, it would appear...

     

    New Concentrator is this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    6666666666666666666666...

     

    5555555555555555555555...
    14 Nov 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
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