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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 9, 2011 168 comments
    Dec 9, 2011 10:31 AM

    "Celtic Wild Flower" by Stan Bruns
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Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/sNH3pU

     

    Jack Lifton article I tried to post to the last Insta, but which was lost by the SA gremlins (I just noticed it never made it).
    9 Dec 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    Proactive Investors demand article:

     

    PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) sounded an alarm on the impending supply shortage of rare earth metals, which could seriously hit the automotive, chemicals and renewable energy industries.

     

    According to a survey of executives from 69 manufacturing companies released by PwC, 14 of the 17 rare earth metals that include cerium, dysprosium, fluorspar and beryllium are set to become even scarcer within the next five years.

     

    Demand for rare earth metals is currently expected to outstrip supply by 30-50,000 tonnes in 2012.

     

    This shortage is likely to result in a decline in production rate of devices and products such as mobile phones, TVs, military equipment and wind turbines that require rare earth metal made components.

     

    http://bit.ly/t7BEwH
    9 Dec 2011, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Saw you fine folks debating uranium in the last REE Concentrator.

     

    Not sure if this has been posted in earlier Concentrators, but the US is planning a $6B nuclear research facility at Los Alamos, which has people in a mini uproar because the facility is so close to a fault line.

     

    My take is that this is a $6B facility in the works! Meaning nuclear is steaming full bore ahead here in the US of A.

     

    http://on9news.tv/vToYJ8
    9 Dec 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Nonsense. New Mexico is nuke central. I lived there for 8 years and I remember when they opened WIPP - http://1.usa.gov/rVsKPa - the nuclear waste facility. They televised live the first transport of nuclear waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant [WIPP]. It was must-not-see TV, constant video of a truck driving at night on desolate roads.

     

    Nuclear research at Los Alamos is as American as apple pie. There are tours on the first Saturday of April and October of the Trinity site if you want to see how New Mexico got started in the nuclear age. http://bit.ly/uj4YVN

     

    People can roar all they want. Los Alamos and Kirkland AFB are major cogs in New Mexico's economy. Their work will continue.
    10 Dec 2011, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Are the costs to mine / process rare earths from sites that have a good amount of radioactive material mixed-in substantial?

     

    I wonder who wins out in costs? Tasman with low radioactive content and infrastructure in place, but a more dilute concentrate. Versus Quest with its higher radioactive content, distant locale, but with a higher TREO percentage?
    9 Dec 2011, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    I would think they both win. It is a small pond, but there shud be plenty of room for both I would think. 1st producer wins bigger.
    9 Dec 2011, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the Greenland (GDLNF) (HUDRF) topic:

     

    http://bit.ly/svs0M5

     

    So, Greenland has no mining tax, and is going after Australian miners looking for investment?

     

    Interesting development...
    10 Dec 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    "Global rare earth demand to hit 180,000 tons by 2015"
    http://bit.ly/sqYQkg

     

    Probably nothing new, but it's good to see REEs stay in the news.
    10 Dec 2011, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/sneYBs

     

    Louise Yamada on Bloomberg. She is always worth the listen, imo.

     

    Sadly enough, either we get out of the market ugliness in 2013-2016 or 2022. <sigh> But she is still positive on the commodities -energy, food and water. And she called the folks in Washington "clowns:...not that I disagree but I don't ever recall her making disparaging remarks like that so for her that is out of character.
    11 Dec 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I found some real nice public presentations given in Malaysia in July of 2009 when Lynas was first approved in Malaysia. This stuff really gives some solid information on the LAMP issue. I think Lynas should dust these slides off and present this stuff again for the public in Malaysia. Its certainly time to add substance to the LAMP discussion IMO. Here are the links:
    http://slidesha.re/rGZUBB

     

    http://slidesha.re/u2qTXO

     

    http://slidesha.re/t4XeOo

     

    http://slidesha.re/rDymE5
    12 Dec 2011, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    I wish they could have used them again when the dust-up began. Might have shortened the angst.

     

    Or not. Hard to say how much effect they'd have an irrational thought and behavior.

     

    Good presentations though - couldn't have hurt.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Dec 2011, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://yhoo.it/uTKsz5

     

    Toyota Tsusho and Matamec sign MofU (non binding)
    12 Dec 2011, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like the Japanese seem to be taking more of an interest in Quebec's rare earths and other trading possibilities. Midland Explorations' rare earth deposits, located near those of Quest Rare Minerals, is mentioned as an example in this description about the trading relationships.
    http://bit.ly/sCvpNG
    12 Dec 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    adding to the gold miners in the IRA today. Why not? Its Christmas and I like shiny things....
    12 Dec 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Check out Matamec's (MHREF) news release today on MOU with Toyota. Stock is up a few pennies, but I don't think the market is giving the news enough credit. We have all seen MOUs come and go, but this one has the sound to me (a shareholder) of the "real deal".
    12 Dec 2011, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I agree ellwodo.
    I think we have to read the link aqwert posted above on this with Luisa Moreno's information she shared with the Gold Report:

     

    LM:Another project making significant progress is Matamec Explorations Inc. (MAT:TSX.V; MRHEF:OTCQX ), which is working with SGS Canada on its Kipawa deposit, and in the last few months the company has disclosed detailed information about the metallurgy. It is very confident about the results, and a pilot study should happen next year. Matamec should be disclosing details of its PEA in the next couple of days; relatively speaking, it has made significant progress in communicating its project advancement to the market. Hopefully the PEA will show some positive economics.....
    Eudialyte has always been problematic because silica gel formation was an issue in the processing and recovery of REEs. But working with SGS and other private consultants, Matamec has solved that problem, according to what the company has disclosed...
    It has not officially been disclosed, but Matamec has attended different conferences and it appears that Japanese and other Asian interest parties have approached the company numerous times. So, my perception is that there is significant interest in the Kipawa deposit, and that could materialize in an offtake or a memorandum of understanding or something like that.

     

    http://bit.ly/s02OQL
    12 Dec 2011, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    The JV appears to be Toyota 49% and MAT at 51%.... isn't that a pretty big giveaway?
    12 Dec 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Not when your total market cap is only $34 million. Key sentence is "upon satisfactory results, Toyota shall arrange the financing through to production". Obviously no guarantees, but if it works the dilution question has been settled for Matamec while other juniors are still guessing as to how they are going to fund to production. As a sharholder I will happily give up half the company in return for 100% financing.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The final consideration of the MoU is to establish a joint venture ("JV"), only for the Kipawa Deposit, between TTC and Matamec (TTC: 49%-Mat: 51%), and to finalize an independent and definitive feasibility study ("FS") and, upon satisfactory results, TTC shall arrange the financing through to production of the Deposit of a mixed rare earths oxide concentrate at a proportion of the fair market price of the individual elements. For the costs of the FS, TTC shall contribute an amount based on up to 49% of MAT's average market capitalization during the 90 day period ending November 30, 2011.

     

    aqwert,
    Considering it is a JV with a junior needing funding and years till production, keeping 51% seems fine to me. I mean these guys are going downstream with the JV and they are a ways from cash flow in a tough financing environment. So I say "good on them". Maybe GW holding the $0.63 pricing has left you a bit spoiled.:-)

     

    But my main point is I had my doubts about the Moreno MAT silica gel formation resolution. I guess it sounded Molylike to me. But business actions are credibility to juniors like I have said before. If we apply that reasoning to MAT, this guys are advancing in this long HREE race. Add to that they are getting an MOU to support the claims they have been making in H2 2011 and I tip my hat to them.

     

    It is non-binding and there is much to do still for MAT, but I think shareholders should feel good about the MOU and it is with Toyota. Minus the occasional sticky peddle, they are a very respected bunch.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/tOIF8M

     

    Australian mining company Lynas today said it will begin a week-long Facebook campaign to rebut allegations that its rare earth processing plant in Gebeng, near Kuantan, was unsafe.

     

    http://on.fb.me/s8bu2Z

     

    LYNAS DISPELS MYTHS
    The people at Lynas share a strong set of values. These include operating in an open, honest and transparent manner, as well as always respecting and contributing to the communities in which we live and work.

     

    The community is right to question whether Lynas’ operations can be done safely. Everyone is concerned about their health, and that of their family and neighbours.

     

    By discussing how Lynas will manage its operations so as to protect the community and the environment – now and in the future – will allow people to form a reasonable judgment on the safety of Lynas Advanced Materials Plant.

     

    This requires meaningful engagement and respect for the facts.

     

    Lynas believes statements made by opponents of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) contain fundamental factual errors which render many of its allegations invalid and may generate fear amongst the community.

     

    Lynas would like to address these allegations specifically, and set the record straight.

     

    Throughout this week we will be posting a number of corrections to the false allegations we have come across. We welcome and encourage your participation in the conversation.

     

    So please join Facebook come join in our fight to dispel the Myths
    12 Dec 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi, OMG, good to see you again.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I saw the Hawk recently engage an anti-Lynas person over on the Rare Earths Blog... it went as expected. The Hawk demolished the guy, but the guy was not interested in learning or reading. The guy is against the plant, and that's it. If a company engages people like that does the engagement add to the persons status? Or is it better to ignore people like that?
    12 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    I know you could predict this of me, but ignore is my choice.

     

    However, others believe, maybe rightfully so, that an argument not refuted is one that is at risk of being accepted as truth.

     

    So there is value, IMO, in making the effort.

     

    But I'm not one to do it. As you might expect, I was not always this way. It required rationalization of my thoughts to realize that I preferred another course of action.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Dec 2011, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Good job spreading the word OMG!
    Looks like we both have irons in the fire today.:-)
    This is a great idea. Loved it when I first saw it and going out to the old neighborhoods is always good. I'd also talk to TDL or just put it on http://bit.ly/tTG4dA That way it goes higher in the Google scroll. You have done great work on Facebook on these issues. It's great to see Lynas chipping in now too.
    12 Dec 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/tv2sq4

     

    So, major ex-China computer manufacturers are seeing a shortage of hard drives...

     

    This is the sort of early warning to look for when gauging likely shifts in the rare earth markets.

     

    In this case the blame is being placed on the Thai floods, but this is the same sort of event we can anticipate when major sources run dry of rare earth supplies.
    12 Dec 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/uNlOzG

     

    I guess in the Age of Youtube... they make videos. Thought I would post it here so that all Lynas heads can see the opposition? I am not quite sure what to call it really. They are supposed to be satirical in nature.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    in the comments section, a lone poster notes that the containment ponds are already full of rain water....
    12 Dec 2011, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    Well, someone else can comment on that stuff. I just don't see the point and find it silly and dull.
    But I do like what OMG introduced here regarding what Lynas is doing on Facebook:
    http://on.fb.me/rCQtL5

     

    LYNAS: Myth or Fact
    Australian law restricts construction of such a plant within 35km radius of residential areas. This is FALSE.
    The fact: There is no such law under Australian or International law. The nearest town to Mt Weld is Laverton which is 35 km away. This distance has been misquoted by the opposition as an Australian requirement.

     

    LYNAS: Myth or Fact
    There have been allegations that Lynas takes advantage of weaknesses in Malaysian law by proposing China standards. This is FALSE.
    The fact is: Lynas adheres to all Malaysian and Australian laws and International standards. NOT China’s standards. Malaysian law is equivalent to if not stricter than International law.

     

    This can easily go on for a week IMO. There is a lot of crap out there. Stay busy Lynas. Stay busy.
    12 Dec 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://on.fb.me/sdMG1A

     

    apparently the stop lynas folks have a Facebook page too! Wow.... I admit I am behind the curve (or better put: wft is the point?) on social media....

     

    12 Dec 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Shoot! I thought Curtis was the last guy to realize the power of social media.
    The point is (according to SMSL) facebook allows a group to take pure nonsense unsupported by science and facts and repeat it till it becomes social myth. Then you can take that myth and create a series of talking points and feed them to a large number of parrots that will repeat the myths over and over. After that the media will pull a Duffy which occurs when a reporter from Australian Mining uses a Green Extremist politician (Robin Chappel) to verify an extremist green member claim.
    The real key here is the entire process requires an abundance of individuals with IQ's under 100. Duffy can't do this alone. That is where social media comes in. It is like a rare earth magnet in its ability to attract morons. All you have to do is put BS on the facebook page and the bait is sure to bring then in. It works like a charm.
    12 Dec 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you know, I think I just "reported" myself by accident..... anybody know what that means?
    12 Dec 2011, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    Oh my.... self-abusive behaviour! LOL
    12 Dec 2011, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    will I go blind?
    12 Dec 2011, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    No doubt of it.
    12 Dec 2011, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Gives new meaning the old "Go ____ yourself"? :-))

     

    Hopefully, SA has enough smarts to recognize such a mistake.

     

    I expect zero consequences.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Dec 2011, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Let's face it. This place is going to the dogs this hour. My apologies. We need TB's chivalry to put this motley miner investor group back in line (starting with me to be honest).
    12 Dec 2011, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I noted your post on the QC about adding IAALF, TAMO, et al today. I really am trying to pare down most of my holdings, but I scooped up a bit of IAALF today as well. Couldn't resist at .11! Already have enough TAMO to last quite a while, if not most of my life. While the recent news appears somewhat promising, I'm not sure about the viability of their business model even in the medium term and there hasn't been enough movement in it lately to make it a real good trade IMO.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IAALF is one of my favorite long term precious penny stocks. I have been trading it actively as it falls into a 20-30% trading channel much of the time. I have been accumulating very low cost shares (essentially free, net of profit taking) into a core holding which continues to grow in size. I see this stock as on a 2-3 year horizon for a breakthrough. Recent analysis of this sector (beryllium in particular) leads me to believe they repesent an excellent opportunity, though at the usual high risk for small penny stocks. Their nuclear fuel technology is very interesting, and should it prove out and be widely adopted in the industry, this could be a real winner.

     

    TAMO is another longer term gamble, imo, and one that I treat in a very similar manner to IAALF, for similar reasons. I like its core holding (oil sand deposit properties), and see a bright future for that industry in general. Its main project is a jv with Cougar, a sister company operated by the same CEO. DD on TAMO, COUGF and Kodiak should be done prior to investing. This is a high risk investment at best.
    13 Dec 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I am a BIG Kodiak fan and shareholder. Staarted buying that last March I think and have had only some very brief periods where I was questioning my judgement. For the most part, it just goes up, up, up. I have a good chunk of LOGL too. I wasn't 100% sold on their BP, but as time has gone on, they have actually been able to deliver results, unlike many of our baby REEs. I think they have a bright future. They buy everything at the right price because nobody wants it anymore and thus far, they seem to be picking prospective targets quite effectively.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Do you not lump EMC Metals into this group? It's currently at 0.11 sp.
    I'm hoping scandium has a future.
    13 Dec 2011, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Different Kodiak Eggwis. (KDKN.OB) is one of three companies that share a CEO along with (COUGF.OB) and (TAMO.OB)
    13 Dec 2011, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Scandium is one of those commodity "chicken and egg" problems. This also covers some of the more unusual rare earths. Loads of potential (particularly in exotic alloys), but before anyone will build the demand-driven industrial infrastructure, they need to know they will have a reliable supply... And before anyone will finance building the supply side, they need to know they will have a reliable demand.

     

    Someone with vision, long range financial vision and deep pockets, needs to make the first move.

     

    This is the problem. Right now I see the sector's punditry looking to government to supply this vision and funding, but its iffy at best, particularly for an Australian project (Australia's hard left government is, ironically, much less likely to subsidize private enterprize). I DO see this situation altering in a few years, after the Aussie governent completes its cycle of escalating taxes chasing declining revenues. We might then see a shift in strategy to priming the pump, which might include some projects like this.
    14 Dec 2011, 08:10 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I see. Thanks Jon.
    15 Dec 2011, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    I guess Largo Resources (LGORF) is another that falls into that category. Yesterday it announced the first commercial shipment of tungsten concentrate from their Brazilian project. They also have a vanadium project in Brazil. However, the stock dropped to about 25¢ yesterday.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, LGORF is one that I watch (page 2 of my list).

     

    Yesterday was a big downspike for commodity stocks in general. Note that Gold and Silver were up over 10% this morning...

     

    Yesterday may prove to have been a great buying opp for many of these stocks.
    15 Dec 2011, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Largo looks like a buy to me, too.
    I'm looking at a new Australian vanadium miner, Speewah Metals SPM.asx, out of curiosity.
    http://bit.ly/rWUbzk
    15 Dec 2011, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Junior has a new SA on MCP etc, if anyone is interested.
    13 Dec 2011, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. As usual, I find more questions than answers:

     

    "1) The discount to the basket price of 43% is signifcantly smaller than the 75% discount we hear from industry insiders that concentrate sells for in China . In our discussions with individuals involved in the re-development of the rare earth supply chain outside of China, we have been told that the separation facilities in China purchase concentrate for 25% or less of the end value of the separated oxides. It is possible that given the supply crunch outside of China, concentrate only mining operations will be able to negotiate a smaller discount. Given the current decision by Hudson Resources, just as Matamec Exploration and Tasman Metals are expected (in their upcoming PEA) to only operate in the mining and concentration portion of the rare earth supply chain, we will be carefully observing which reports assign a steep discount when generating the headline results."

     

    This is all antique information. The Cartel in China has changed everything, and the "old way" which coincided with extraordinarily cheap prices driven by geopolitical goals is dead as the Xin emperor.

     

    Its as if he were studying GM's prospects, and resurrected data from 1985 to prove a point about what is going to happen with them in 2012.

     

    One reason for the very high concentrate discount was the lack of any vertical intergration for the massive (literally thousands) of tiny mines (most operating illegally). These little guys had NO pull with the refiners and middlemen. No pricing power = large discount rate. This is also a function of a command economy and most particularly for a key commodity which is the core operating method for an immense national geopolitical agenda. Referencing this as presenting some insight into what will happen in the West is disingenuous at best.
    13 Dec 2011, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    [IAALF] has been looking weaker than I have ever seen it...seems to have no bottom. May find out today...
    13 Dec 2011, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • omgwen3rds2
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    Hi guys I miss you all! I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New year!
    13 Dec 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    OMG: right back at you! Hope your holidays are filled with good cheer!

     

    And the same to all the board participants!

     

    HardToLove
    13 Dec 2011, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks, OMG! Same to you, your family, and your friends.
    13 Dec 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    johnwelshtrades John Welsh
    $MCP Dalhman Rose, it's biggest bull, turns negative on name, sees rare earth pricing plunging due to china

     

    from twitter but can not comfirm. Anybody got anything?
    13 Dec 2011, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would be VERY skeptical, particularly with that funky source...
    13 Dec 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I had to work with the format on this transcript. Sorry for the scambled one above. This should look cleaner:
    http://slidesha.re/vq6Yim

     

    Presentation Transcript

     

    FALSE Allegations by Opponents of the LAMP

     

    I. Regulations
    1. Lynas takes advantage of weaknesses in Malaysian regulations by proposing Chinese standards–FALSE

     

    Lynas adheres to all Malaysian and Australian regulations and International standards. Malaysian regulations aree quivalent to, and in some cases stricter than international standards.

     

    2. Australian regulations restrict construction of a rare earths processing plant within 35km radius of residential areas–FALSE

     

    There is no such regulation in Australia or international law. The nearest town to Lynas’ Mt Weld mine is Laverton, which is 35km away. This distance has been misrepresented as an Australian regulatory requirement.

     

    3. Lynas is planning to import rare earths concentrate without a license–FALSE

     

    Lynas respects and abides by all Malaysian Government conditions, regulations and limitations. Lynas has no plans to import rare earths concentrate until a license is granted. Lynas imports equipment and construction materials on a regular basis.

     

    4. Lynas came to Malaysia to avoid the strict Australian regulations-FALSE

     

    Lynas came to Malaysia for economic reasons. Gebeng is a well established, petro-chemical industrial park which has access to port facilities, high grade chemicals, a well educated and skilled workforce, reliable utilities and very good infrastructure. Malaysian regulations are equal to, and in some cases, stricter than Australian regulations.

     

    5. Lynas was chased out from Tereng ganu due to environmental reasons– FALSE

     

    Lynas received approvals from the Malaysian authorities, AELB and DOE, for its original proposed site in Tereng ganu. Lynas met all the environmental and regulatory requirements.

     

    II. Radiological & Environment

     

    1. Lynas is a nuclear plant-FALSE

     

    Lynas is NOT a nuclear plant. It is a chemical processing plant. Lynas processes and operations are standard for the chemical industry, and similar to other plants in the Gebeng industrial park.

     

    2. Lynas is the same as Mitsubishi Asian Rare Earth (ARE)in Bukit Merah–FALSE

     

    There is no comparison. Lynas Rare Earths Concentrate contains naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), similar to many other mineral concentrates processed around the world. ARE’s raw material was “monazite” from amang (tintailings)which contains 37 times more radioactivity than Lynas Mount Weld raw material. The waste residue from monazite processing is 60 times more radioactive.

     

    3. The environment will be polluted because the plant is located on swamp land with a shallow water table–FALSE

     

    Site preparation work has been extensive. Two meters of top soil has been removed and replenished. Piling and re-inforcement exceeds requirements. The Residue Storage Facility is built above ground level, with plastic lining and a clay layer. Monitoring equipment is installed to detect any risk of leakage.

     

    4. Lynas will cause radioactive rain from the gas released by the stack-FALSE

     

    Lynas is will not cause radioactive rain. There is no significant exposure, nor health and safety risk from Lynas emissions to air. But to address concerns, Lynas has installed air monitoring equipment on site and in town to measure and clearly demonstrate that it will cause zero harm.

     

    5. The plant uses a lot of acid that can contaminate the soil–FALSE

     

    The facilities are built to Malaysian and international standards for chemical plants, to ensure containment of all process materials. All LAMP process areas are built on bunded concrete structures, so any acid spill would be contained in the bund and will not come into contact with the ground.

     

    6. Lynas plant will pollute the river with radioactive material–FALSE

     

    Thorium is chemically extracted from the processed water. Thorium is not soluble in water.

     

    7. Lynas did not carry out any study on internal radiation exposure–FALSE

     

    Lynas included a radiation exposure study in its initial Radiation Impact Assessment, as per the AELB and international requirements.

     

    8. One dust particle from the Lynas plant can cause cancer–FALSE

     

    Cancer statistics do not support this statement. Lynas monitors for dust with specially installed air monitoring equipment on site and in town.

     

    9. Pahang tourism industry, fishing industry and small to medium sized businesses will suffer from Lynas operation-FALSE

     

    A Radiological Impact Assessment (RIA)confirms Lynas will NOT pose radiological risk to the public or the environment–estimated exposures of 0.002mSv/year compared to 1.0mSv/year public exposure which is the allowable standard under international regulations,

     

    10. Radon and Thoron can travel thousands of miles and cause health problems-FALSE

     

    The IAEA independent review of LAMP assessed emissions to air, water and land. This important review concludes that Lynas does not represent a public health exposure risk. But to address any concerns, Lynas has installed air monitoring on site and in town.

     

    11. No level of radioactivity is safe-FALSE.

     

    Radiation is all around us. Radiation is used in the field of medicine every day. There is low level radiation from appliances we use every day such as televisions, radios, computers and light globes.

     

    III. Economy

     

    1. Lynas brings no benefits to Malaysia and Kuantan-FALSE

     

    • Employment: direct employees 350, contract staff 300, indirect employment by supporting industries >1000.

     

    • FDI value of RM 2.3 billion with annual operating expenditure of RM 600 million. Total contracts available to Malaysian contractors is RM 1,168 million of which RM 513 million is for locally based contractors in the Kuantan area.

     

    • Potential down stream applications in rare earths-joint ventures may create additional employment for 1200.

     

    IV. Waste Management

     

    1. The waste residue will be stored permanently at the Gebeng site-FALSE

     

    The Residue Storage Facility at the Gebeng site is only for temporary storage. However it is designed to international standards suitable for permanent storage. Permanent storage may not ber equired as Lynas is actively developing potential for re-use and recycling in commercial applications.

     

    2. Lynas produces 32,000 tons of WLP per year with 0.165% Thorium i.e. 50 tons of Thorium per year– MISLEADING & CAUSING FEAR

     

    Such a statement is misleading. What is important is the very low CONCENTRATION and CUMULATIVE exposure. The highest radiation exposure recorded at the Lynas’ Mt Weld site is 0.47 milliseverts/year–less than half of the public limit and 1/10th of the limit for occupational exposure.

     

    3. Lynas declares the residue as non radioactive based on China’s standards of 74 Bq/g–FALSE

     

    Lynas has always adhered to international and AELB standards in the handling and storage of waste residues. Only one of the Lynas waste residues contains a very low level of radioactivity at 6 Bq/g.

     

    4. Australia requires waste to be returned to the mine–FALSE

     

    There is no such law in Australia. There are many examples of mineral concentrates containing naturally occurring radioactive material(NORM)that are transported across Australia and around the world. Waste residues are not required to be returned to the point of origin when they can be safely stored, reused or recycled.

     

    V. Others

     

    1. Lynas Malaysia is managed by Australians–FALSE

     

    Lynas Malaysia is staffed and managed by Malaysians. The team comprises Malaysian and international technical experts, including five with specific experience in the Rare Earth industry.
    13 Dec 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Taking profits on LYSCF/LYSDY, MCP-A, UAMY, and UURAF.

     

    Geopolitical risk situation is very high, and I have concluded that any santa rally will be brief and untrustworthy, even short term. News in the middle east is very disturbing, and could be a major market killer over the next days (particularly over the next 3 months). Note the headlines about Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz (since linked back to an Iranian Student Council publication, of all things) which, even though Iran now dislaims that news, is a hint of things to come (imo).

     

    The lack of a positive response to the events in Europe was surprising, and demonstate that the prospects there may not be so rosy as the markets have been indicating (which was none-too rosy, for that matter). Spain just held a good $5billion bond auction which went at rates lower than the highest rates recently seen, but that news has had little impact as well (with such a small auction, it could well be that the ECB and other central banks propped up the bonds and manipulated the results, of course).

     

    The Euro is now sinking toward 1.30/$, and I anticipate it entering the 1.2x/$ range very soon. This means we are confronting a strong dollar exchange rate sitrep for our commodity-based investments. As I also anticipate the ECB printing Euros and conducting aggressive quantitative easing soon, this situation could continue for quite a while.

     

    At any rate, the recent delays for Lynas prompted me to take the profits and plan for a re-entry downstream somewhere. I retain a large holding in Lynas, just not so large as it was. If events play out as I suspect they will, we may see a superior buying opportunity for these (perhaps virtually all) stocks soon.
    13 Dec 2011, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: You see quantitative easing in the EZ leading to an equity sink here (in the US)?
    15 Dec 2011, 08:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Generally? It could go either way. For commodities? Overall, yes. Stronger dollar = commodity-based equity drop.

     

    But there are many other aspects, including WHY the QE occurs. If Europe can skirt a recession (particularly a bad one) and salvage their financial system, even with extensive QE and currency manipulation, it might end up as a positive factor after the initial market shock.

     

    If the QE happens and Europe falls into a deep recession AND experiences a financial meltdown (meaning the QE failed) the initial shock just keeps going...

     

    Eventually other world markets will differentiate themselves, I believe, but that may be the "rosy" scenario. Just as likely Europe will trigger a global meltdown, probably with China the next domino, closely followed by us. Should that happen, we would be looking at a very bad situation.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Did you see Axel Merk's white paper on China, TB? It's posted on qc 217. I plan to read it closely this weekend.
    But, I wonder why you think China is the next domino before the USA?
    16 Dec 2011, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I cetainly did, and read it, and posted a reply to your earlier post (but SA ate it, as sometimes happens).

     

    My take is different from Merk's. I see China in a real delimna. Europe is extremely likely to start QE and the Euro drop. China already has a big problem with the real estate and infrastructure buildout they used to gloss through the global recession - its simply too large for their domestic economy to digest. In relative terms (based upon GDP) China's stimulus program was 10 times as large as ours. It was a gamble predicated upon the hope that their primary customers (EU and US) would bounce back from the recession in the usual fashion, with the usual strong recovery period to absorb much of their production. Didn't happen, and the prospect of another deep recession must be daunting.

     

    If China does nothing, the relative weakness of the Euro and dollar (though particularly the Euro, short to medium term) will move the RMB up slope. If China acts to strengthen the RMB, the effect on unemployment will be immediate and fierce (and they are already dialing back industrial activity, real estate support, and infrastructure buildup). From their perspective they will have to decide which is easier for them to handle - riots in the streets by millions of unemployed lower class and lower middle class workers - or unrest from their upper middle class and upper class unhappy with inflation of imported goods. With their firm control economy mechanisms to fix prices and shift inflationary burdens around, I suspect they will choose to keep the jobs and factories open instead of use their currency to attack inflation.

     

    Prior to this they had time to wait for events to play out in their host markets, but that time is gone. Note that they recently participated in the concerted central bank effort to calm things down for Europe. That will also play into the equation, though I suspect that in the end they will weight domestic needs to maintain order in the streets over financial maneuvers.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: I always like talking to you because you do a great job with time differentiation....som... many people ignore when discussing stocks...assuming everyone looks at the time frame they focus on.
    We saw rumours/inklings of EZ QE a week or so ago and the US markets spiked upward quickly...then faded when the rumours were unsubstantiated. It may not be so simple if it were to come to pass. I appreciate you adding one more layer to this.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I think the market is losing patience with GW at this point. Do holders think the webcast would make sense? Any thoughts on what they should do short term? Or is it a wait and hold situation at this point?

     

    Honestly, I think they need to say something. Even if there is no news, I think they should try to better define for good or bad either where the new funds will be used or what the next fews months should look like. But in the $0.40's suggests to me silence is a poor option.
    13 Dec 2011, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    as usual I was early by a day in adding to the gold miners in the IRA. That's the way I like to re-frame the fact that I was wrong ;)

     

    Chi, I disagree with the GW comment. I would rather they finish the JV before they have another webcast to tell me they are working on it. They updated pictures at SKK for December. Allegedly they are still on track for the dec JV but but but. I wonder if they are waiting on the drill results?
    13 Dec 2011, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Would anybody expect take-over chatter to start reverberating around Great Western. I know the market is in the dumps and in particular the miners and more specifically the juniors but aside from Lynas and Moly, I don't think anybody except GWG from the list of any of the usual names have a shot at production within the next 4 years at the earliest.

     

    While GWG has so many unknowns the mine refurbishment, which I think will miss (big surprise) the December deadline is fairly close to being complete. A larger company (don't think it will be a miner) that needs supply would almost have to a look? While management has publicly stated they are not interested, if these depressed stock prices last to long into the new year without financing and/or JV in place, Jim and co. I think would have to reasonably asses all offers; Otherwise they would have to issue a boat load of shares just to raise a nominal amount of cash and all just to keep running day to day ops. Further, you would have to assume if the depressed levels remain, come the 4 month lock-up expiry selling could really depress the sp further.

     

    Thoughts?

     

    Best,
    Matt
    14 Dec 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    hey matt did you see the update from dwight listed under FYI post on SH? Hope its true......
    15 Dec 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I was just reading that, aqwert. Intersting report: http://bit.ly/sDpnAp

     

    Some excerpts:

     

    1.What is the status of the GQD deal?
    “The closure of this deal will occur before the end of the month.Up until this point, the four month delay has caused considerable concern forboth the company and investors as we have had to get the details exactlyright.“

     

    2.Is there any potential delay in itssigning due to the upcoming Chinese New Year?
    “No. Both sides areworking hard to get this done this calendar year. There is no anticipated delay.”

     

    4.Are there any forthcomingannouncements I could share that will promote this company in the marketplace?
    “Finalization of the GQD by12/31/2011; one or more JV’s are being negotiated.”
    · Follow-upquestion: Are you referring to the GQD deal or another JV?
    “One or more JV’s in addition to the GQD deal?”

     

    5.How is the 43-101 certificationproceeding?
    “Most of the drilling should be done this month, maybe a littleleft in January. Lab results should be back by end of 1stQTR, 2012, hopefully sooner than that.”

     

    Loads more in other portions of the discussion. I believe all those interested in GWM should see this from dwight on SH. (Link should work, if not, let me know).
    15 Dec 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I did. I am cautiously optimistic regarding that post. Although in this market environment, I think it may well act to just put a floor under this thing with maybe a slight pop. I guess it depends on the deal, and I must admit I am a bit jaded by management and their "dates".

     

    I am expecting some similar language to the Frontier deal where a lot will depend on the drilling results.

     

    Any plans on adding at these levels?
    15 Dec 2011, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GWM crashed through my Buy target of $.48 yesterday. I picked up a few thousand shares with a token program I had GTC which at least acted like a tripwire. I am likely to add some today...
    15 Dec 2011, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    well.... I, too, am a bit skittish about the management's "timelines" so we shall see. Do I think they intend to consummate the JV? Yes, I actually do. I think TB mentioned this before: I think GQD also needs this JV now, not just GW. I did like the talk of multiple JVs which would fit with my idea of the scope of the deal changing although I doubt all if will come out in one fell swoop.
    I have added all over the place with GW so I am a poor judge of these things. I did add a few yesterday but I have little money left to devote to it at this moment. (there may be more in Jan). I am obviously not good at the timing issue (particularly those gold miners. Look what I did the other day!! Haha. Can you get any worse time of an add?) I think I should get an award or something.
    But do I think GW is gonna do it? Yes I do. In a weird (slightly masochistic way) I really do. (Chi is going to have a field day with this!) I try to keep an eye on the Big Picture and in terms of REE not much has changed. Unless we all are going off a cliff... in that case , well, what is there to say then?
    15 Dec 2011, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    If you are in the stock you must believe it will happen.
    Dwight has been wrong about everthing for the last five months so far to be honest so he is pretty due by now.:-)

     

    I don't like Dwight's role at GW as "rumor in chief". It seems like when they want to feed the market BS Dwight puts it out there on his own thus avoiding company responsibility. I suppose it goes with his communication role, but what did Dwight ever tell you that happened as planned?
    15 Dec 2011, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    It should be mentioned this was a report on a conversation with Never Right Dwight:-):

     

    "Dearboard participants:
    I spoke with Dwight Percy at length this afternoon concerning many of the points brought up here"

     

    Previously, we had an email response from Jim linked here. It is a small thing, but the mreserve9's comments as hearsay are subject to his correct understanding and reporting. This guy is fine from what I read over there so it's a minor point.
    16 Dec 2011, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Dwight has been very up front with me and I have absolutely no complaints on how he has conducted his job. Absolutely none. Well, except that he won't let me come up there and sit in on meetings. ;)
    16 Dec 2011, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Upon further reflection on your comment Chi ....

     

    How is this different than Lynas at the moment? They seem very similar to me. They both are trying to accomplish something (LAMP JV) that involves things that are outside their 100% control. Their shareholders want more info and the companies have been awfully quiet of late. But somehow, to you, Dwight is "rumor in chief" (oh wait, is LAMP open yet? ) and the company is avoiding responsibility. Isn't Lynas doing the same? Why the double standard? Sh*t happens and things don't get done on time. You are willing to wait and so I am but I guess I just don't get your constant dumping on GW.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    One word- History.
    Lynas has had the usual delays and issues of any junior, but the big picture history is established. They are stumbling over the goal line in some respects, but they are at the goal line. And LAMP construction is slower than promised, but I can see an elaborate plant and a successfully producing concentrator. Lynas has created value and real producing assets.

     

    You like to look at stock prices. I like to look at value creation with juniors. Miners are suppose to create value. They turn dirt into things. They all issue a lot of shares along the way. But the difference between a great long term investment and a loser is the value creation.

     

    The reason I call Mr. Percy "Never Right Dwight" is because he has never been right yet and there is no history of accomplishment either. If nothing happens in the next two weeks, who will be surprised? And how will you feel about 2011 in GW's development?

     

    And I think the risk in GW is ramping up these days. If they need more cash before they come through on their list of incomplete promises, I don't think an offering would be realistic. They are moving toward taking on short term debt years before production. There is still hope for GW but their credibility is in the balance IMO. If they lose the credibility the valuation will fall dramatically.

     

    Toly has warned you guys that most of GW's book value is in REE land claims that are far from producing and are booked based on high REE prices. LCM after years is a near break even operation (not a great accretive acquisition yet). And I can't point to any GW value creation. So combine all that with four months of silence and no results on Never Right Dwight's promises and you have a clear picture of the risk in GW.

     

    This week I had a chance to enjoy a dinner with toly. I had a great time and learned even more than he has already taught me. He is a damn smart guy. He supports his views and makes a lot of sense. He may end up right about GW guys. I'd say his view makes more sense than an unsupported view like w3waters. That's for sure.
    16 Dec 2011, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I sold the last of my GWM when they announced the last dilution, as I stated I would. The last portion was a 50% gain for me, the smallest profit I made on GWM. So, I have no skin in the game.
    I would buy it again in only two circumstances:
    They get a JV and real funding in place. I will not sit for additional dilutions without a JV; or
    the price per share becomes so low that they become an attractive target for a takeover (hostile or not). That price, imo, would put them back in the 25-30 cent range. I am not saying that they aren't worth more now than they were two years ago. I am saying it has to get that low for me to consider the stock a buy without a JV in place.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OG, I'll argue with just one thing - I believe your takeover price estimate is too low. I believe they will start getting offers in the mid-30's. This could happen anytime, of course. In fact, the current negotiations could well BE dominated by GWM trying to dodge various takeover offers and cut deals that maintain control for Engdahl and Co. GWM has a long history of this behavior under such circumstances, of course...
    16 Dec 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you are missing my point Chi. You are willing to wait with Lynas. They are late with LAMP and have run into trouble in Malaysia. You think in the end it will be ok. Curtis has said nothing. Gloria says while in this phase they can't comment on the details.

     

    GW has run into trouble with the JV (trouble is loosely defined because we only assume it is trouble) and they can't comment on the details. I think it will be ok in the end. Yet.... somehow my position is wrong and you are right. That's what I don't get.

     

    And while you say that Lynas has accomplished so much and GW so little... I do recall you poo-pooing the LAMP debacle early on saying it won't amount to much and yet it has. And some would say has been handled poorly. GW is struggling and so in Lynas. So what?

     

    No one on this board is taking cheap shots at Lynas - especially in this time of uncertainty- yet you continue to do the same with GW. Why? Not Right Dwight. Rumor in Chief. You've called the mgt fraudulent. You constantly are pretty snide about them and yet no one has done anything to you and I guess I just don't get it.

     

    OG in the comment below yours states a pretty factual case with out all the negativity and yet still gets the point across. I don't mid your facts or different opinions but I really get tired of the caustic, petty meanness. Maybe it just me. But there is plenty in this world to get bummed about and I just wish you didn't feel the need to add to it.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    I'm not missing your point. I am willing to wait with LAMP because Lynas has a history of value creation. And I see a clear first mover future in Lynas with less risk. To be candid I see a take uder or zero bid in GW. Link to me where I said LAMP was not worth much. I think you misread me. I have believed in LAMP value all along.

     

    I would not be willing to wait with GW because they are near broke with inflated values on the balance sheet and everything they have ever told me turned out to be BS. It is not a cheap shot aqwert. GW is acting like a junior going down. That is my point. I am bearish and give the reasons for my bearishness. Without explanation I would call me petty and mean. But if you explain the belief (on valuation, failed promises in the past, zero value creation, poor acquisitions) I call it bearish or bullish and nothing more. And if GW goes down you will say management defrauded you. And if they do I will agree with you.

     

    OG is a classy blogger with her own style that I respect. Perhaps, I am a bull in a china shop and I can see why others do not like that. But I am who I am and I call a loser a loser. GW is acting like a loser IMO. Sorry.
    16 Dec 2011, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    never mind Chi. Clearly I am just talking past you and we can't seem to find common ground on this issue. You are talking one thing and I am talking another as usual.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Any further comment from Lynas about when they will complete construction on LAMP ? I would think that they would work 24/7 to finish up unless there was some indication from the AELB that their pre-op license would be decided based on a calendar event of some type (internal review deadline), not based on completion. Maybe AELB has told Lynas not to announce completion of LAMP until they finished their review and were ready to make an announcement ?
    14 Dec 2011, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    AELB and Malaysia are quite comfortable with a remarkable amount of wealth destruction in Lynas. How these guys think they will complete their build out of industrial and high tech development is beyond me. Lynas will be fine long term because it is a great business model. But at this stage Malaysia has proven it is just not ready to join the Emerging World.

     

    Years from now when other multinational businesses look at Mt. Weld, they will see concentrate that is slightly more radioactive than gravel and cement. When they see all that Malaysia has forced Lynas through even though AELB has approved over a thousand projects in the past (many far more radioactive and toxic than Lynas), I say they move on.

     

    Ultimately, Malaysia's protest and delays of Lynas are clearly seeded in prejudice and ignorance toward a foreign company. Lynas tried to address this by having only Malaysians running LAMP and these people still could not overcome their societal stupidity. These mistakes will be hard to remedy and even harder for big companies to ignore when Malaysia comes calling.

     

    And to not believe the Malaysian government will come calling to other multinationals is to be naive towards government. Every government needs revenue to provide services to it's people. That revenue requires business to grow the economic pie. Without doing so the silent killers of inflation and progress leave the stagnant to rot.

     

    The end result is the absence of progress in Malaysia's future. And as that progress is lost and the costs of infrastructure, inflation and government services reduce the quality of life in Malaysia, will the Greens have a response? Will the irresponsible media care or offer solutions to the problem that results from this anti-progress position? No chance. The loss will be born by the people as a whole because they failed to address the media promoted ignorance of a few.

     

    Governments must realize how fragile society really is. They are in a constant argument for progress with the court of opinion. When they ignore this responsibility a silent demise results in greater challenges for the future. The Malaysian Government has shown a lack of focus. If they do not find that focus soon in a world where opportunity may be shrinking due to debt, financing, and recession, their circumstances could turn rather bleak.
    15 Dec 2011, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19440) | Send Message
     
    Outstanding comment Chi!

     

    HardToLove
    15 Dec 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, a most excellent comment there, Chi.

     

    I have been calling the Malay protestors (and their enablers in government) "luddites" from day one, and nothing has happened to change my mind since.

     

    I would think that any thoughtful person in Malaysia must be aghast at the ramifications of this debacle. LOL, I beieve they would be shocked and horrified if they had any idea who is reading this blog, for that matter (I get emails from a high level group sometimes, gang, and I suspect that Chi and others do as well). Malaysia has received a blackeye with the international community that will remain for decades, and cost them far more than they comprehend.

     

    Looking down the pike past completion of the LAMP, Lynas will be bringing other major projects on line. Malawi, which might have represented another source driving further augmentation of the Malaysian LAMP, will almost certainly NOT involve Malaysia now. I believe that Lynas will build those plants in Africa, or if not, somewhere OTHER than Malaysia.

     

    Sad stories like this should be heeded by everyone, including national leaders (at least, the small percentage that has the long term best interests of their people in mind vs their plans for re-election). If the woebegone Malays have any hope, it is that there is a real expectation that "everybody will do it". As the super-successful Singapore has proven, nations that do NOT follow the herd into luddite fogs or bizzarre social engineering experiments can use the simple fact of their competence and dependability to build long lasting achievements.

     

    I make a it practice to avoid investing in companies operating in locations with poor geopolitical prospects. Malaysia has now made my list as one such, and if I were first examining Lynas as an investment today, that would color my investment decision. I might yet take the plunge (as Chi says, they business plan and narrative is compelling and sound), but it would be with a wary eye to the Malay leadership.
    15 Dec 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    I must say that your thoughts there are very well articulated. I hadn't really given consideration to many of the points you made, but I find that I am largely in agreement with you. I think you hit the nail right on the head!
    15 Dec 2011, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi-
    Has Malaysia approved other large foreign projects that you know of?
    15 Dec 2011, 06:10 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Chi-
    With due respect, I think we all need to step back a bit. Believe me, I share your frustration! On the other hand, I suspect the Malaysian gov't would probably tell us that we should be upset with NC's bullish timelines, rather than their slow progress, and frankly, at this stage, I would agree. The AELB site has explained how long it takes to process the applications for licenses and, I believe, we are still inside those time frames.

     

    I am beating a dead horse here, but, really shouldn't we expect more detailed info from NC at this stage? I would like to know when the clock started on the AELB approval process and how long that process will take including and what will be any intermediate signs of progress. I'd also like to know when the construction is the critical path item and when the licenses are.

     

    In short, I would like to know when I should start to worry and when I should be upset by delays (and who I should be upset with if that happens). At the moment, I am in the dark on the whole process and would appreciate clarification. My own opinion, at this stage, is that it is early to be chastising the AELB (and/or gov't).
    15 Dec 2011, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    "Antimony, platinum group elements, mercury and tungsten have the biggest risk supply index value ..."
    http://bit.ly/rYPjEe

     

    You can download the list from this link:
    http://bit.ly/tcxj2q
    15 Dec 2011, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I notice that mercury is very high on the risk supply list.
    California had several operating mercury mines in the boom period from World War Two to the Vietnam War. Most of the old mines are located in the Coast Range to the north and south of San Francisco. They were part of the colorful history of the region. Tourists still visit the old mercury mining town of New Almaden near San Jose.
    They shut down for good in the 1970s for both environmental and market reasons. It would take quite a bit of effort including political arm twisting to make them functional again because they are hazardous cleanup sites.
    http://1.usa.gov/s8RXwW
    http://lat.ms/vxB2Dh
    http://newalmaden.org
    15 Dec 2011, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Mercury provides another example where Nevada's mining production takes up from where California left off. Mercury is found in the McDermitt Caldera straddling the Nevada- Oregon border at the Cordero Opalite Mining District.
    While mercury mining was discontinued in Nevada in the early 1990s, there are a couple of miners which have mercury at Cordero. Nevgold Resource Corp. NDGFF is working to extract the gold and silver at Cordero. Gold Canyon Resources GDCRF is still drilling for gallium at Cordero. Gallium alloys are increasingly used as substitutes for mercury.
    http://on.doi.gov/tZMkpC
    http://bit.ly/sX19gV
    http://bit.ly/w4AeGL

     

    16 Dec 2011, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    It does appear IAALF has found a bottom, TB...barring any macro across the board drop you noted possible above.
    15 Dec 2011, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Hi Freo,

     

    Got this from Ms. Rogers on Tuesday in response to the email that I sent last week.

     

    Dear Gregg

     

    Thank you for your detailed response to my earlier email and your continued support of Lynas and appreciate the time you have taken to voice your concerns.

     

    With the final stages of the regulatory approvals process in place, we hope that you can appreciate that we cannot comment specifically on any outcome or article regarding the granting of the pre operating licence beyond what we have already released to the market.

     

    Kind regards

     

    Gloria Rodgers
    Executive Assistant

     

    I am too am very frustrated by the silence we are getting. As I've noted previously, it is absolutely possible, IMO, for Nick to communicate with his shareholders without "peeing in anyone's Cheerios" ;-) at the AELB. At the very least, this is true with regard to issues not immediately concerning the LAMP, AELB, or POL.

     

    But I do also have to say that I can see both sides. Saying ANYTHING at this point gives the "crack head" opposition the opportunity to grab it, twist it into different contexts and apply it as they see fit. That could potentially open the doors to further delays. So in some very tiny respect, I can appreciate the silence.

     

    That tiny bit of appreciation, however, is far outweighed but my (our) frustration. Again, I understand that there are things that should not be addressed publicly at this time. There is absolutely no reason that I can think of that the AELB should have any issue with Nick saying "Construction at the LAMP is very near completion and moving forward without delays. We expect 100% completion within the year." if that were the case. In doing so, he makes no reference to the AELB, their process, time lines, what he anticipates, or his own personal feelings in that regard. They are in control, free to do as they will and I would find it difficult to believe that such statements could possibly offend or ruffle the feathers of the AELB. Moreover, while I agree that Nick's primary responsibility at this moment is to make sure that everything that can possibly be done, within the limits of the law, to ensure the timely opening of the LAMP is done, I believe that responsibility is superseded only by his responsibility to keep the shareholders informed of what the hell is going on and what's being done with our money. I am certainly no lawyer, but that's my take. And that's about all I have to say about that at the moment, lest I get my blood pressure up any further.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:36 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Egg (or is it Gregg)- Poor old Gloria. She's not in a very nice position at the moment. Must be hard for her. Anyway, I couldn't agree more with what you are saying. I just wrote a long-winded response to you, re-hashing what we have all been saying, but have now deleted it because it is only re-hashing what we've already said. I guess, other than asking the company, as we've done, what else can we do but wait? Bloody annoying. My guess is we just need to get through this next month. If there is no news by then, the noise will start to get really loud and they will have to say something. Maybe I'll head up to Mt Weld over these coming holidays and look through the fence at all my $$$'s sitting there. That's sure to make me feel better!
    16 Dec 2011, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    You know what, in these times of uncertainty, I find myself reading into the 'unsaid' more, or maybe just reading things closer than I normally would. I just re-read Gloria's email. When she says we are in the 'final stages of regulatory approval' maybe we should be more upbeat. Not to say it's imminent, and, as mentioned before, a 3 month time line still has 1 month to go, but, to me, if it were still 4 months away (which is the worst-case scenario, by my reading of things), I would not expect her to say 'final stage'. Fingers crossed, here's hoping for a happy new year, sooner rather than later!

     

    While I'm at it, just want to pass along Best Holiday Wishes to all on this site. I really appreciate the open, honest, frank discussions. If I learn as much next year as I did this last one, I will be very happy. Cheers!
    16 Dec 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Freo,

     

    Do you remember the old Lite beer commercials? I mean the R-E-A-L old ones? ..."You can call me Egg, or you can call me Gregg, but....." Well I didn't find a way to make the final line work, but I thought it fit anyway. :-) You can call me anything you like. I'm pretty easy going like that, and the truth is that no matter what you call me, I'm pretty confident that I've been called worse! ;-)

     

    Again, I agree with you. ..on a couple of counts! It's is true. Poor old Gloria doesn't have the most enviable of jobs at the moment, being on the front lines like that in such tense times as these.

     

    I also agree that there may be something in there between the lines. I saw it too, but not til I had read her email 5 or 6 times. I had intended to mention that you, but I got so worked up and wrapped up in my thoughts that I forgot all about it. Gloria seems to be of such a good nature that I believe she may do that for us. I do think it is in there and that you may very well be correct in your interpretation. "Final" doesn't necessarily mean imminent, but if the whole AELB process to this point has only been 6 months, then "final" surely doesn't mean 4 months either.

     

    Thank you for your kind holiday wishes. I wish you the same.
    18 Dec 2011, 04:52 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/sfYoUY

     

    "This issue of project valuation is becoming increasingly important within the sector. Matamec is drawing criticism from rivals this week for cutting a rare earths deal that ostensibly takes care of its short-term financing needs but could have negative implications for rivals, in terms of valuations and the prices paid for future off-take agreements.

     

    Depending on who you talk to, Matamec sold off its flagship rare earth asset cheap, but under the guise of pulling in a high-profile backer, securing a REE off-take agreement and shortening the to-production timeline of its Kipawa HREE deposit in Quebec. "
    16 Dec 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    another quote from the same article..... this deal is certainly interesting.

     

    "One of the big issues is the type of deposit that Matamec is dealing with – a silicate, not bastaenite or monazite; the company has to prove to TTC that extraction and separation can be accomplished – economically and to specific requirements.

     

    That’s the high-risk, high-reward part of the equation.

     

    Still, one angry executive said the deal is being viewed by the market as some sort of vindication of the quality of the Kipawa deposit.

     

    “It has nothing to do with the quality of the asset; it has everything to do with the financial terms,” he said. “I’m flabbergasted as to how loose-ended this deal is, but power to Toyota – they got a hell of a deal. And the relative financial risk it has incurred on this is zero.”
    16 Dec 2011, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    NC's latest timeline is first feed in Q 1 2012. That gives AELB cover and says it will be anytime now. I would feel better with a % complete update on construction, but I see this happening real soon.

     

    I'll say Lynas has first feed at LAMP before LCM gets the first new oven installed. And Lynas gets LAMP production before LCM gets the first oven producing. I'll bet a steak dinner anywhere in Texas (your choice) on that.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    again with the petty comments. I see that when you feel better about Lynas you like to put down others. Nice. When the stock was at a dollar and you had lost money, you were all about the "glass houses" but I see that now that you are feeling better you have decided to go back to chucking rocks.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    You use to say I put down GW when I was unhappy with Lynas. Maybe I am just bearish on GW. The stock is in half since I sold it. And Lynas is in half since I rolled that cash in Lynas. Oh well, that is not the point. The point is Lynas looks like a junior that will produce even though it faces challenges. GW looks to me like it will not produce. The reasons I conclude this are the part you call petty. I think the reasons are the most important part of my comments.
    16 Dec 2011, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you still don't get it. You can say these things in a way that is not mean or derogatory. Others are capable of doing this so it is not impossible.
    16 Dec 2011, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    OK. Let me try again.....
    Aqwert, you're a great guy and your stock is going to zero.
    Just kidding.

     

    Look, I think you have a point there. I have given my thoughts so this time I will just stop now. I do agree that the edges I put on the comment neither increase the information nor really add to a conversation. You are right about that. But at the same time I think that weak social grace is easy to ignore. I think my reasoning is far more interesting and makes for a better conversation. So I will try to tone it down. Honestly, for good or bad that is not natural for me. But consider some of my thoughts as well. Fair enough?
    16 Dec 2011, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Chi, please don't tone it down! There is much truth (and much mirth, thank you) in your first line. I can't get all emotionally involved with my picks and neither can anyone else if they want to make money.

     

    I can say honestly to someone with whom I disagree, "...you're a great guy and [IMHO] your stock is going to zero." They can say it to me. The proof is in the pudding.
    16 Dec 2011, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I see your point. But both aqwert and I are in tune with our emotions. I think we make our investment decisions with our heads. But ages ago aqwert and I could have it out and there was not much respect there. That has changed a lot for me. I dislike GW for going silent more than ever, but I like and respect aqwert far more than ever as well. So while I agree with the statement "You're a great guy and your stock is going to zero." It is important to remember the first part of the statement requires a certain respect that Aqwert has earned. We'll still disagree but I would like to be more mindful of that first part in the future.
    17 Dec 2011, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I'm impressed Chi. Very nice and very well stated. I'm considering taking you up on that bet though... I'm not a monster believer in GWM, but I have an inkling that they just might get that oven installed any time now. Do I have to win both parts of the bet or just one? And does it include the requisite round trip air fare, tips, hotels, etc?
    18 Dec 2011, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    The first dinner is the oven arrives first. And when we get the pre-operation license first, you can go double or nothing on commissioning:-). As for travel, you have to pay and reach Texas soil on your own dime, and its dinner only. But from there I have to create a business trip that takes me to that part of Texas. Deal?
    18 Dec 2011, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    You're a generous man Chi and I would love to take you up on that, but it seems that this time I will have to pass. I'm pretty sure that Mrs. Egg would object to my flying to Texas for a steak dinner at this time. I'm hanging with TB in the "We Pay for Storms" boat for a big chunk of change this fall, my little man is 3 this year and just getting into the Santa biz big time so Mrs. Egg got a little carried away AND I believe her biggest objection would be that she wasn't invited. So, I am going to pass Chi. But we can make it a gentleman's bet for now if you'd like. Just a little competitive spirit. We can keep score on points that way, and in the spirit of the season, if you win I'll ship you out a handful of lottery tickets. Deal? Next time around, though, I'm apt to be flyin' in for a juicy steak.
    22 Dec 2011, 04:41 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Damn Chi,

     

    It just occurred to me that if I don't take you up on the 1st dinner, then I won't have anything to double down on! I'm not sure I can live with that. I won't be able to sleep for a week thinking about missing out on 2 steak dinners!! ;-) Well, who knows. Maybe I'll get brave and throw it out there to the Mrs. Come to think of it, she just spent a week in HI while Adam and I were at home batchin' it. How mean can she really get about it, right?
    22 Dec 2011, 04:54 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    We can make it a gentleman's bet. And if you win both I will consider you twice the gentleman I am. And while this title may already be true we will consider your picks further proof.:-)
    23 Dec 2011, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough Chi. ...and if you win both, I will hold you in the same high regard, i.e. to be twice the gentleman that you are.

     

    (............hmmm, did that come out right?)
    ;-)

     

    Happy holidays to you and your family Chi!
    23 Dec 2011, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The same to you and yours egg! Happy Holidays!
    24 Dec 2011, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    IMO, the major difference is that Lynas has PP&E (Plant, Property and Equipment) on the ground, while there is very little value in terms of hard assets for GWM. Agreed, the (Lyna) Plant pipes and wires have little value in other applications they have great value as REE processing equipment.

     

    I hate to continually pick on GWM but IMO if I was a suitor looking at "participating" in the GWM adventure I would probably wait for a reorganizational opportunity (i.e. bankruptcy) and acquire the (few) assets of value after shedding the current creditor and shareholder liabilities.

     

    In other words there is little in terms of GWM PP&E, so taking on SH liability makes bad business sense… JMHO...
    16 Dec 2011, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, just saw this comment about "bankruptcy", Toly. My read of GWM shows no current debt. Personally I've never seen a company go bankrupt that had no debt.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Added GWMGF today.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    I added yesterday but must say I am surprised by todays action. Anythign specific that made you pull the trigger today?

     

    Best,
    Matt
    16 Dec 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been holding off, watching to see if we would see a lot cheaper price - decided to add back at the current cheap prices. Maybe dwight will get it right (at the risk of sounding like an underage xfactor rapper).
    16 Dec 2011, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Ditto. Also KOG, EOG and SLW on dips Thurdday
    17 Dec 2011, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Someone liked their prospects, their projects and their subsidiaries enough to put $15 Million on the table in this last private placement, and did it at 63 cents a share. What do they see that you don't?
    They see a future for profits with GWM. Now, I'm not suggesting it's a good fit for most people, in fact, it no longer fits my own risk profile, but to say it is close to worthless and wait for the bankruptcy is a mischaracterization of the company and its prospects.
    16 Dec 2011, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    toly!
    I hope your travels back went well.
    I think bankruptcy is not the current stage. But there is a risk that GQD is trying to do what Toyota did to Matamac. If they value Steen, they could finance for part ownership. I wonder what the GW shareholders would think of this? It would get things going faster, but GW sees itself as having the big pieces looking for feedstock only. So do GW holders see giving up a piece of ownership to GQD as giving away the store? Or maybe the better way to ask it is if this were the JV, what would be an acceptable percentage breakdown?
    16 Dec 2011, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    I say "yes", that would be unacceptable to me, as a shareholder, above say 12-15%.
    18 Dec 2011, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    You know management better than me, as have been involved longer than myself, are they that inept that if GQD was stringing them along a) they wouldn't pick up on it and b) if they did pick up on it they would continue to negitiate with them in hopes something will change and not reninstate negotiations with their other potential partners with the knowledge that time is running short (in terms of cash etc)?

     

    Best,
    Matt
    16 Dec 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    Sorry I'm late to respond. I think most of us believe the deal changed in complexity. Maybe aqwerts right and there are parties added dragging out the close of the deal. That is a reasonable bullish view.

     

    I am more concerned that GQD got wind of the Matamec MOU with Toyota Tsusho and repriced the value of Steen in their minds. Toly convinced me the last quarter shows the GW cash is stuck in inventory and another raising is not immediate but near in time. The $15 million was good because it was all that was available (just ask Arafura), but the GW balance sheet needs more soon. So even after the offering GW is in need of cash and news for the share price like Matamec was in need for the deal.
    http://bit.ly/sfYoUY

     

    I know TB and Aqwert have discussed that GQD needs this deal too. I think they are motivated, but not being listed these guys don't need to worry about "making the quarter". They can be more patient than GW based on the balance sheet. GQD should be able to get and even stockpile LREE's (today's demand is weak and the China quota hasn't filled plus the in China black market must be strong now). So I think GQD can just sell it's products untill they get the terms they like IMO.

     

    I think Truscott's article was the must read of the week. For a long time there has been a competition between cash flow timelines and HREE %'s. In 2011, "It's the heavies" owned the press even while the projects were all years away. This was supported by an improving market for financing and sky rocketing REE prices. Those days are gone and the upper hand is with the financier as is the norm with juniors. In such a market, the traditional priority to reach positive cash flow ASAP takes precedents again.

     

    This has always been the key to Moly/Lynas, the funding advantage. But now the question is whether those two really are fully funded. The analysts say Lynas' cash position should hold up if production is in H1 2012 but not later. I agree with this, but feel with a built plant or the pre-op approved, bridge financing would be easy. Without either in June, it would get uglier for Lynas.

     

    But the real doubts rest with Moly IMO. I believe Moly will not produce from Phoenix in 2012. For me the recent photos are just further proof:
    http://bit.ly/vKm6n6
    I am particularly surprised at the different stages each part of the project is at. This uneven construction is a common symptom of underfunding. This issue combined with the Moly Board pulling forward funds to accelerate a deadline that now seems impossible convinces me that Moly is over budget and very delayed. An offering would confirm this thought. And being at their annual low suggests the market agrees with me.

     

    Either way these projects are still both the first movers by the traditional metric of funding. I think that factor works out and these two remain the only short and medium term investments. Everyone else is a trade or a long term investment at best IMO.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, I question whether GQD is a genuine potential partner. Some of my prior posts have posited the idea that they are a stalking horse for the Cartel, which would mean that they have, indeed, cut a rare earth joint venture, but with the Cartel instead of GWM. Extending and teasing GWM with a long fake out would, indeed, work in favor of China's geopolitical plans (just as the long delays in Malaysia do - hence the low level conspiracy theory which bubbles with that situation as well).

     

    The more we see that LAMP is unique in its problems with the Malay licensing process, the more the conspiracy theory attracts fans, but I am more likely to view GQD (a smaller, private Chinese company with part of its business represented by its rare earth business) as being utterly hostage to the Cartel in an environment where the Cartel is eradicating its small competition like so many ants.

     

    I give this scenario much more credence now than I did upon the inital announcement, and the longer it stretches out, the more my suspicion about GQD grows.

     

    Parsing recent messages from GWM, we are now seeing a "plural" equation, ie "joint ventures" instead of "joint venture". If I were them I would have been pursuing at least 2 or 3 other alternatives, long since, so perhaps we will see news with a deal involving their Japanese customers (probably Aichi/Toyota) rather than their Chinese suppliers. In that event I would also expect them to commence operations using a plan very similar to that of Lynas and MolyCorp, ie, focusing on their primary light/magnet rare earth production, and banking any heavy r/e processing for a second phase in the future some time.

     

    This scenario would also line up logically with their recent investment in purchased rare earth feedstock, which I suspect is heavy on the heavies.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    Regarding your comment that "Lynas' cash position should hold up if production is in H1 2012 but not later.", do you know if that takes into account their Phase 2 monies that is tucked away in the coffers?
    19 Dec 2011, 05:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree with Chi, Lynas needs to be up and running in Q2, 2012, otherwise their burn rate will endanger Phase 2's "fully funded" status.

     

    Adding two, three, or even 4 quarters worth of delays and cash burn (plus whatever all the doo-dads cost that were added by the IAEA's junket) before Lynas starts producing is costly. IF they don't receive the PLO until the end of June, for instance, I expect they might be tapping their $229million loan facility before they enter Phase 1 production. Right now they have about $251million after their latest projection was for just over $118million in burn for the current 4th Q 2011. I would think they might be burning that much over the coming quarters too... Though perhaps they can just mothball everything until the Malays hand them the ignition keys to their new factory (that would cut their expenses while they waited, but it might be awkward for their workers, their PR efforts with the locals, and investors, of course).

     

    Funding is a function of time, just like everything else, and the more the delays mount up, the more cash is tossed into the furnace (just look at what has happened with GWM, for further evidence).

     

    I am currently hoping that Lynas can startup production Q3 2012, perhaps 1kmt (which at $100/kilo would be worth about $100,000,000). This would not cover all their expenses, particularly if they start pulling money from cash flow to begin Phase 2, but it would be a big help. Perhaps by Q4 2012 they will be somewhere close to the designed output for Phase 1, say about 2kmt, or $200,000,000. At that point they might be close to break even, and still retain enough money in their line of credit to complete Phase 2 (though I would of course expect delays from the current timeline).

     

    If they are getting closer to $70 or $80 from their production (which will tend to be lower value light elements until Duncan is brought fully into production), then the numbers get tighter still.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    The cash comments I made do not consider Phase 2 fuding. But remember phase 2 is being built right now so pulling forward funding would slow phase two. Lynas' burn rate should drop in 2012 as they will be down to just phase two costs and maintenance costs tied to the delay. Overall, I agree with the analysts right now. If this drags past H 1 2012 I would expect one last share purchase placement like we had last Spring or they will list the ADR and raise cash that way. But I doubt the latter.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Moly hit an annual low today. I guess this press release did not impress. I think the market is right. The press release shows how early Moly's HREE stage is at right now. It contrasts with the presentations listing element percentages (based on historicals) and saying they just need to run a pipe and cord and they're good to go.

     

    Molycorp Secures Government Approval To Conduct Heavy Rare Earth Exploratory Drilling
    GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 16, 2011-- Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) today announced that it has been granted authorization from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management to commence exploratory drilling at an occurrence of heavy rare earths located near its flagship rare earth manufacturing facility at Mountain Pass, California.

     

    "This is an important milestone in our heavy rare earth strategy, and we expect to begin drilling immediately,” said Mark A. Smith, Molycorp's President and Chief Executive Officer. “We anticipate results from the drilling program in the second quarter of 2012. I’d also like to compliment the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Department of Interior for their thorough and efficient review of our drilling Notice."

     

    Preliminary exploration at the site has shown rare earth mineralization with an average ore grade of approximately four percent and a relatively high percentage of heavy rare earths, such as terbium, dysprosium, europium and samarium, as well as relatively high percentages of yttrium, neodymium, and praseodymium.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1727) | Send Message
     
    Chi, I think your assessment is correct as to how the market read Moly's "good" news. Still, I took the opportunity during today's weakness for myself and some clients who own MCP+ at higher levels to write some way-out Jan 2014 MCP 25s with a $10 premium. If it gets put to us, at least we are only on the hook for a net $15 if it goes to $0! And I don't believe $0 is likely. A shotgun marriage, maybe. But with the defense and other applications for both HREEs and LREEs it is in the national interest to have a counterweight to pricing hegemony within US borders. Anyone know of another US company that can provide that counterweight? (In the short term, not "Well, if their exploration pans out...")
    16 Dec 2011, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Nothing seemed to prevent the stock price going down some more after hours today, a very interesting situation.
    They have some new construction photos posted on their website, btw.
    16 Dec 2011, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Joseph,
    I do think Phoenix is behind and you are getting paid to wait. And while Moly gets hit for Smith pumping and perhaps not managing expectations well, the investment has plenty of time to work out. I think the preferred works because it gives you time for the macro picture to improve. But even if Moly is delayed and they need more than $2 per kilo production costs they still have a clear path to success. They will produce a large amount of Ce and La in the future. And they will be the most reliable bastnasite supply. When they get there that reliable supply should be a predicable raw material for western industry and could spur new technologies far better than XSORBX.
    Sometimes I think my main frustration is their failure to properly value their true story. They will be a good company after Phoenix. I don't understand why they need to distract us with excess crap at the expense of a good story. I doubt I would have ever sold them if everyone just said they are a very big basnasite source of reliable rare earths. True they would not have gone to $70, but I think they would not be below $30 dollars either.
    Moly will be fine and I think the preferred will have countless good exit chances. Overall, at these levels I think the stock is profitable long term into the future.
    16 Dec 2011, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    I think they bargain shopped Moly at the close and then got buyers remorse on the Belgium two notch downgrade.
    http://bit.ly/vGr2vP
    17 Dec 2011, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    Fly on the wall in a restaurant (2 men are sitting at a table devouring a side of beef).
    1st Man: "The TREO's, heavy rees, and oxides..."
    2nd Man:"Yes, and the LAMP, Fuziah...AELB, it's only a matter of time..."
    1st Man:" Great Western Sucks."
    2nd Man (gazing admiringly across the table)" You are so smart."
    1st Man: "You too!" "If only I could get my wife to see it..."

     

    LOL.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    OG,
    You left out "Moly sucks too".

     

    Honestly, it was a good time. Never knock a good time.

     

    Oh and toly and I both seem to have happy marriages so the alternative innuendo is off, but I found it funny.

     

    And if two GW guys want to have a risotto and salad lunch and talk Cher, style, and track lighting to get their minds off GW, I'm alright with that.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    I am so old I don't even try for sexual innuendo. The innuendo was supposed to be "if only my wife could see how smart I really am!"
    16 Dec 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    LOL

     

    OG,
    My wife sees how smart I am only when I agree with her. That's fine since we have been married eleven years next month and I have long learned to mostly just agree with her.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    After my folks had been married 60+ years, my father announced,
    "I can't get deaf enough."
    16 Dec 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    does she know about Cher?
    16 Dec 2011, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Deafness worked well for my parents generation. Unfortunately, when my wife is mad everything is a question followed by "You are not listening." Rather a bit like aqwert I suppose. :-)
    16 Dec 2011, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    Hi OG, just getting back to Co. tonight after some engaging meetings in Tx. and I just now noticed the restaurant screen play. Not sure, but it sounds like it could be Nick and Mark Smith having dinner and Engdahl just stepped out to the restroom… Not sure if Mark is married but I'll bet Nick's wife already knows he is smart...

     

    Seriously, I thoroughly enjoyed the side of beef with Chi, and it just may be that some financially lucrative subjects were resolved, even on the macro level…

     

    OK, on to important things... While it would appear that the Lynas share price is struggling, while the company itself is flourishing. It would appear that the final gasps of LAMP protesting are emerging from the lips of a 2 headed chicken brought to you by the fair lady Fuziah. Likewise, the protest crowd at the annual shareholders meeting (which essentially doubled when 3 of their ranks finally showed up), is fast becoming a memory...

     

    The macro environment sucks but the bottom line is that it will get better. The timing of this global slowdown couldn't be better for Lynas. The fact that it is nearly impossible to go to the well for financing of any kind only enhances the prospects for Lynas in the NEAR future. LAMP is 100% capitalized and is presently going through the pre-commissioning process...

     

    Lynas continues to make substantial progress while much of the competition is stalled… When I look in the rear view mirror, the only thing to see is MolyCorp who has significant problems of their own. Sorry, I just don't see anyone else… ;)
    17 Dec 2011, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I went to Cher with my wife. Pretty funny actually. I had fun.
    18 Dec 2011, 12:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Something which we rarely discuss on a philosophical basis, the concept of risk in these investments.

     

    ALL stocks have some level of risk. Most investors eventually sort out their personal tolerance for risk, and then spend a great deal of time trying to determine which investments they would like to put their money on. Risk calculation is an eternal process for the individual, and really it never ends.

     

    I view Lynas as a risky stock. It has geopolitical problems which it shares with the entire rare earth / strategic minerals sector. It has specific political problems (which are almost certainly linked to its overarching geopolitical problems) as well. Then there is the usual litany applying to pre-production companies with essentially zero earnings. The risk is there, and the lack of earnings or any earnings history means that much of the fundamental analysis which pertains to larger/more mature companies just does not function.

     

    GWM shares many of the same risks as Lynas, and is smaller and much more modest in its scale of planning and goals. It is further from potential production startup, by any reasonable estimate, and therefore that has to add risk to the examination. Its primary block is financial rather than political. Some have more confidence in GWM's ability to work out funding than they have in Malaysian politicians, and I can appreciate that point of view, but still I believe that Lynas has less risk in that comparison as well.

     

    Lynas has a problem with meeting demands for both a solution to handling thorium waste, storing it on site, and ultimately disposing of it. Whatever they do with this is unlikely to equal the situation for GWM's Steen, with permitting in place to mine, process and store their thorium. In this area, Lynas presents more risk than GWM, imo.

     

    As things stand now, on balance, the lack of coherent funding for GWM to build its processing plants in South Africa is the glaring deficiency they must overcome. Should this be accomplished, a new evaluation of their risk factors would be needed.

     

    Even IF the Malays delay the PLO for the LAMP until mid June, and first feed occur by, say, early July, I believe Lynas will beat both GWM and MCP to market by a year. This indicates to me that Lynas is less risky than GWM, even should GWM achieve full funding. I believe these comments apply to MCP as well.

     

    Right now I view the GWM risk as a poker bet, one with a good analogy for those who play the game. Buying GWM at this point is indeed risky, but its a solid draw seeking to fill a strong hand. The concept their business plan is based upon makes sense to me, as does that of Lynas and even MCP, frankly. And though its a risky bet, its got a number of "outs" which could fill the lack in their current hand.

     

    Today GWM was well below my buy target, so I took some of the profits I had taken off the table from them recently, and bought back in at a much lower price. I may do the same with Lynas, which is hovering just above where I would like to do the same with the profits I sequestered when I sold off at $1.30 a few days ago.

     

    At this time I view my bet on GWM as a "semi-bluff". I don't have a winning hand yet, but there's a good chance of filling out that flush or straight in the coming days.

     

    For Lynas I believe we may have many months before the danse macabre with Malaysia reaches a close. I am thinking to drop my buy target a bit more, and just wait them out a little longer.
    16 Dec 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Good post. I agree with the Lynas risks. I think you drastically minimize the GW risks. Most of all I disagree that the GW thorium storage license solves that issue. That is a Pandora's box not yet opened IMO.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At every point except one I said that Lynas was less risky than GWM. At no point did I minimize GWM's risks.

     

    I have seen the idea that potential interest by the IAEA in looking at Rareco's license from the South Africans may be a huge problem for GWM, but my take on that is to look more closely at just what the South Africans granted in that license in the first place. Oddly enough, there is every expectation that the license could encompass construction and operation of a nuclear power facility - something which would not appear to be in their current plans (LOL). Were GWM to announce an intention to build a thorium power plant, I suspect that yes, indeed, a great deal of attention would come to bear.

     

    The political situation with South Africa is somewhat different from that in Malaysia. I believe the South Africans will NOT be seeking to import the IAEA to solve an overhyped luddite problem numbering perhaps a few dozen nutcases. True, the IAEA apparently loved the invitation they received from the quaking Malay politicians, and doubtless would love for a similar routine be established for ALL such projects everywhere on the planet. The opportunities for bureaucratic featherbedding would be immense!

     

    Its a mistake to project the unique delays experienced by Lynas in Malaysia onto other nations, with a high likelihood that this situation now applies everywhere. Countries where, unlike Malaysia, permitting is already in place for ore originating in the same jurisdiction presents an entirely different prospect.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi- (or anyone else that can answer)
    I had asked a question earlier in the thread a few days ago that you may have not seen ...

     

    Has Malaysia approved other large foreign projects that you know of?
    16 Dec 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    Valley Boy does a great job on this government research stuff. With the foreign companies in Gebang Industrial Park with Lynas I am sure the Malaysian government has approved much bigger foreign companies. And the Asian Rare Earth Bukit Merah plant was owned by Mitsubishi. But I understood your question to be "Has AELB approved a larger foreign project?" And the short answer is I don't know.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The Malaysian government reports a number of successes in attracting foreign investment. It offers many incentives to foreigners for business development.
    http://bit.ly/t2F2ji
    http://bit.ly/tpshnZ
    America's trade balance with Malaysia is continually in a deficit. We must desire what they have to offer for trade.
    http://1.usa.gov/uXgn67
    The State of Pahang, where Lynas has its LAMP at Gebeng Industrial Estate, has been doing well in some years and not so well in other years with attracting foreign investment.
    http://bit.ly/vBAEMB
    One of the major business attractions in Pahang is the Port of Kuantan. The Gebeng Estate is nearby.
    http://bit.ly/rKdsxn
    http://bit.ly/v0OlLA
    16 Dec 2011, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    thanks VB. So Malaysia is not anti business, correct? Just anti-LAMP? Perhaps they really are just scared of a repeat of Mitsubishi - logical or not. I think residents of Love Canal would be not so keen if another chemical company wanted to come in and build there.
    16 Dec 2011, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    I think they are just anti-LAMP as far as I could interpret the protests.
    I generally wish that all environmental concerns were technical in nature and not political. In a perfect world that would be realistic. But it has become common for people to wonder if they are receiving an overdose of chemicals from some source. Worries like that should be well taken in some cases. Hopefully a reasonable solution to the situation at Gebeng can be arrived at with the various concerns taken into consideration. It will be of great interest to read what the authorities determine what would be proper about this case.
    In the meantime there are plenty of other chemicals at Gebeng in play.
    http://bit.ly/vU7KSz
    http://bit.ly/vIl1vh
    16 Dec 2011, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    OG, I am just looking at this from a business point of view, specifically as a value investor… I'm not quite sure a bankruptcy is a mischaracterization. Suppose that for just one second, GQD decides that any GWM action is not for them. Then assume there is no other credible JV in the wings, which may be entirely possible… What happens next?

     

    At best, growth slows down to a crawl on existing development, basically a function of LCM profits. Dependent on the true value of the five million dollar inventory and the additional five mill in accounts receivable, and less than five mill in cash, the future can be measured in months... I'm still searching hard to see the future potential of three quarters of a mine in the rough...
    16 Dec 2011, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5202) | Send Message
     
    The company is salable. They haven't sold because Engdahl, Billingsley et al want to maintain control. At least, that is talking their book and according to previous public statements.
    16 Dec 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    General Moly GMO is a major step closer to possibly opening their Mt. Hope molybdenum mine in Central Nevada. The Bureau of Land Management has released a draft environmental impact statement earlier this month for public reading and review.
    http://on.doi.gov/vFPkgl
    16 Dec 2011, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks VB. GMO is one that I have on page one of my miner watch list.
    16 Dec 2011, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    REE gets Thompson Creek's Randall Scott as CEO
    16 Dec 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Translation: A shady boiler room operation, having accidentally stumbled into buying real mining company's leftovers and finding a commercial deposit missed by the big boys, has now hired someone who has a clue what to actually DO with it.

     

    Now we see if they really let him spend their money to develop the find.

     

    Bottom of my monitoring of the rare earth sector...
    17 Dec 2011, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Last week I sold all my GWM and bought QRM and TAS. I've owned GWM almost as long as Lynas. This was back in the day when Jack Lifton was more prominent on SA, etc. Overtime, and recently my gut is telling me GW is going nowhere soon. At this time, I see better opportunities. Time will tell...
    16 Dec 2011, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I'm still hanging in there with GW. I've lost enough on it already to make it not worth selling, and it's now a poker stock for me.

     

    Lynas.. Well, I've sold and rebought a few times, and think it is a risk, but hope the LAMP deal will go through. Again, another risk stock.

     

    These two were my only REE investments, and I lost the appetite for the stock market this year, so didn't buy anything else.

     

    I'm now considering a couple more low cost entry point REE's, but with a skew towards the heavies. UCORE, definately. Possibly Quest, maybe Tasman.

     

    Not sure what to make of Matamec. If the TTC JV works, and the feasibility study comes out smelling of roses, who knows what it'll do to the value of the stock, but then, their fortunes would be linked to that of Toyota (I guess?)
    18 Dec 2011, 01:55 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    J. Kaiser is not a fan of UCORE (a sell) but can't remember why.
    18 Dec 2011, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Reading further into this, I believe UCORE will be a small scale operation (due to the nature of the minerals being in a small vein), and possibly being expensive to mine..

     

    TASMAN and Quest seem a better likelihood of making it to production according to today's DYOD...
    18 Dec 2011, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    When I look at the TREO%, the metallurgy, and their burn rate I'm with Kaiser on Ucore.
    18 Dec 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    Besides Lynas, QRM & TAS. I'd like to consider AVL more.
    They have a very large resource (good TREO) rich in heavies and lights which in the long term ( think China & India importing rare earths) just can't be ignored. Their management over the years has done a good job in my opinion. No goofs.

     

    What bothers me is the remote locale, dealings with indigenous tribes, the underground mine and the large expense to develop. This gives QRM and maybe TAS an edge. What do you guys think?

     

    long:AVL
    18 Dec 2011, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    That's what put me off them after the initial hoopla.. Lots of HREE's in the ground, good TREO, but very remote, expensive to extract, and I can't remember if there were drilling rights issues/potential problems with the Nechalacho people, on whose land the minerals are. I'm not sure where that is right now.

     

    Like the look of Northern Minerals chi (and thanks for those other pointers). Lots of heavies, and my thinking is to invest in companies with an upweight in HREE's..

     

    Lynas will be able to supply LREE's to the market when they're up and running, but they lack a lot of the heavies..

     

    I'm thinking Quest, Tasman, possibly Northern, Stans (a wildcard), and Matamec are the ones to follow, as they have the largest make up of HREE.
    19 Dec 2011, 04:47 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Who would your top 5 be at the moment chi?
    18 Dec 2011, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Nick,
    I'll give you my current list.

     

    1. Lynas

     

    After that a lot of daylight.

     

    2. NTU Northern Minerals at an annual low. I think there is risk of an offering (dilution). But the market is too concerned about the JORC. They will get it quickly based on the drills they have disclosed and the established metallurgy for xenotime IMO. They still have a world class top ten investor list in a mini cap stock. That is never a bad sign with juniors IMO.

     

    3. Neo Materials. The performance materials side of the business is way ahead of many. They are vertical integration that is working without feed stock. As Canadian deposits progress Neo should have many choices for future feed stock and remain a long term player in the field. I like Neo even counting Pitanga as a zero. The IP and advanced materials are the key to me.

     

    4. UAMY. Antimony is valuable and I would pick them up after an improved quarter. Right now they have some growing pains, but if next quarter is good I would start to nibble.

     

    5. Galaxy Resources Ltd GALXF. The long term business model of selling Lithium batteries for scooter bikes in China is great. Putting the plant in China is necessary on a cost basis and it addresses the cost problems with rock lithium over brine. Using current off takes to help finance the China factory is smart too. There is risk here but Iggy Tan has stuck with this and is starting to look pretty smart IMO.

     

    6. Alkane. The resource is very good and the zirconium is the key. They need funding but with the diversity of the resource (zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, yttrium and rare earth elements) and the short timeline I think they have more suitors for funding and an easier time than most.

     

    7. Moly preferred after it hits an annual low following either an offering or Phoenix delay announcement or both. I think there will be a "kitchen sink" moment here and then Moly gets interesting.

     

    There are several others I watch but only if the macro market improved. If so ASX:MLM, QRM, FREFF.PK, and Umicore look good to me.
    18 Dec 2011, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Chi.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://tgr.ph/saKV9V

     

    China's Cartel is laying plans for next year.

     

    The "rare earths are not rare" flat (rare) earthers will take it on the chin.

     

    We will, of course, see what Beijing finally elects to do (and it may or may not be in concert with the story laid out in this article).

     

    Either way, 2012 should be a worthy extension of the bizarre rare earth passion play.
    18 Dec 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2705) | Send Message
     
    Interesting link TB. And perhaps others had seen this already, but today’s Sydney Morning Herald points out that Baotou Steel, which accounts for nearly half of the world's rare earths production, “has been excluded [due to environmental concerns] from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's list of 11 approved exporters for next year. The list was released last week.” The move is likely to significantly impact global supply: http://bit.ly/vDpdAt
    The article projects that “This would benefit rare earths miners racing to be among the first non-Chinese producers, including the Australian miners Lynas, Arafura Resources and Alkane Resources, and other international majors including California's Molycorp."
    18 Dec 2011, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes indeed, Mercy. The exclusion of Baotou (which is the core component of the Cartel, of course) is the simplest method of addressing China's export goals for the coming tranch. Its noteworthy that Baotou is also the prime buyer setup by the Cartel to purchase supplies flowing from the dwindling ranks of the small rare earth refiners. When this flow was less than hoped for earlier this year, they cut off supplies of feedstock to the small refiners, while simultaneously closing hundreds of illegal mines (and shutting down issuing any new permits).

     

    I view these steps as temporary measures only, designed to counter the short term issue of these small fry selling their remaining supplies into the more lucrative ex-China markets, undercutting the Cartel's geopolitical agenda. The recent drop in rare earth prices was, imo, primarily due to this phenomenon, and the lower prices have also served to entice many hoarders and rare earth collectors to sell their inventory into the ex-China world markets. Now that these "unallocated" supplies have been drained, and the devastation of the small fry in China is well-advanced, its unlikely that this sort of brief surplus (such as it was) will be repeated in the future.
    18 Dec 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    New Concentrator is ready.

     

    Happy Chanuka, Merry Christmas, and good morning to all!
    19 Dec 2011, 06:39 AM Reply Like
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