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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, Dec. 19, 2011 232 comments
    Dec 19, 2011 6:37 AM

    "St. Simons Lighthouse" by stan bruns
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/v5XxHc

     

    Interesting source of data, and the sort of fundamental infromation those of us investing in this sector should keep an eye upon.
    19 Dec 2011, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I'm trying to find the NASDAQ symbol for Northern Minerals.. All search engines say NHMI, but my trading platform doesn't recognise it.

     

    Instead, it will only recognise it's former name of Northern Uranium Ltd, with the ticker NOURF.

     

    One and the same?
    19 Dec 2011, 07:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NOURF is the pink sheet. One and the same. They just are slow getting the description updated.
    19 Dec 2011, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There is no major American exchange listing for Northern.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:52 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Smith buys 5000 sh of (MCP) at 27.95
    19 Dec 2011, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    $139,750 purchase for Smith. Better than his HREE nonsense on Friday but not a large purchase either.

     

    Still I like the idea.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/syo36w

     

    Note the bit about Japanese rare earth inventories running out soon.
    19 Dec 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Slightly off the rare earths, but is anyone investing in lithium juniors here?

     

    I bought into Rodinia Lithium and Pan American Lithium yonks ago, and the value of them has dropped like a stone. Thing is, they're so cheap right now, I'm wondering whether it's worth a punt to buy some more.

     

    Also, I'm trying to remember if anyone posted up about IBC Advanced Alloys here, and whether it was worth a poke. For some reason, I've saved them in my watchlist, and I can't remember why..
    19 Dec 2011, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am long IBC, and I believe several others are trading it as well.

     

    Lithium is sometimes mentioned, but not actively followed right now. If you would like to initiate coverage on some lithium juniors, feel free. Its probable that others will chime in if you do. Personally I am no longer in any lithium plays.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I just bought some IBC. At those crazy prices it seems rude not to.

     

    What made you back off lithium? Seems to have a bright future..
    20 Dec 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I used to be in lithium, then I discovered rare earths...

     

    I plan to re-enter more mining stocks in 2012. Heavy cash weighting right now while I wait.
    20 Dec 2011, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4100) | Send Message
     
    I am an "other" long IBC... (IAALF.PK) (IB.V)

     

    I'd be buying more at 11 cents and down if I had free cash and wasn't overweight the stock already. And yet, I still consider it.
    20 Dec 2011, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Why do you guys like IBC?
    It is in nuclear and defense (two weak parts of the market now).
    It lost $4.66 million fiscal year 2011.
    The balance sheet sucks.
    $20 million in revenue with 364 million shares fully diluted.
    3 month Ave volume 725,764 per day.
    Profit Margin -22.80%

     

    I mean I get that it is a high tech start-up, but I don't see the value. I'm not hating or bearish on it, but I see nothing exciting there. Dead money from my view point, but I gave it a casual look. I'm just wondering what I'm missing? Is it all the story? I like beryllium, but is this the best stock?
    20 Dec 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Is the "Never Right Dwight" rumor without news holding down GW?
    And this is the third day in a row LYSDY is below LYC. I thought the China info would help both of these stocks more.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    CHINESE authorities have barred the world's largest rare earths producer from exporting due to ''environmental concerns'', in a move likely to significantly affect global supply.

     

    Baotou Steel, which accounts for nearly half of the world's rare earths production, has been excluded from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's list of 11 approved exporters for next year. The list was released last week. http://tinyurl.com/89r...
    19 Dec 2011, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Season's greetings. Glad to see your back in fine fettle. I posted a (PSEC) 8K summery on the QC wherein dilution was authorized. Sarrissa Resources (SRSR) released this update. http://yhoo.it/ulWtb7
    19 Dec 2011, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    FPA,
    Nice to have you with us again. Are you "back" now, or just dropping in? Also, I've been meaning to tell you, "Nice mouse!". I'm diggin' him. My son loves that movie for some reason!
    22 Dec 2011, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    Chi, are you still thinking that in next week or two we will have an announcement from Lynas about licensing,etc?

     

    A lot of good press lately about rare earths and coming supply deficits, even though our stocks keep dropping. I'm hoping 2012 will be a good year.
    19 Dec 2011, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    I'm playing it that way. I do think the approval will be soon, weeks not months. I would feel better about my view if we got a % complete update on construction and a few positive Bernama stories.

     

    But yes, I think we get the approval very soon (in the next two weeks) and then I will leverage into lynas till production ramp up. And I am more convinced than ever that approval will occur.
    19 Dec 2011, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    When the tide turns...LYSDY pressure will reverse and be a positive for holders...
    20 Dec 2011, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    I do think Lynas is emerging as the leader in the space here. After getting banned from the Stop Lynas facebook page last night (for giving too much information that was Pro-Lynas) I can tell you they have nothing in their arsenal. They even assume the approval will be soon. None of them believed AELB would not approve. They are trying to raise money for a legal battle but are getting nowhere. Protests and talks are less than 20 attendees. There really is no point to AELB dragging this out except that government is never efficient.
    But now that the rain in Kuantan is clearing LAMP construction should be moving forward. If this continues we may see a walk up in the shares and then a re-rating of the stock with approval. Meanwhile, it is a good day of relief for the rest of the space today too. I think we will see more of this in the next few weeks as the China news creates a very bullish quote for H1 2012. Good luck to everybody out there.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/taTYX9

     

    Good news for Arafura.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    So what of my NOURF shares....did I miss something??
    20 Dec 2011, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Northern Minerals seems to be doing the right things as a company. It is going down on no earnings and a JORC effort that is still months away. Honestly, it is behaving like an offering may be coming. I'm trying get a feel for the current cash on hand versus current burn rate to see the short term. But in a young junior like this offerings are part of the process. If they did one today, I'd buy the dip. I think the progress looks good to me.
    20 Dec 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Report: Lynas plant safe if IAEA recommendations adhered to
    http://bit.ly/vjUeR2

     

    KUALA LUMPUR: Lynas Corporation Ltd's rare earth plant in Gebeng, Pahang, will be safe and harmless if the company follows the recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency (http://bit.ly/uUlBmM), according to two Malaysian professional bodies.

     

    The Academy of Sciences Malaysia (http://bit.ly/sZoeAZ) and the National Professors' Council (http://bit.ly/rHYa2H), in a joint report on the project, said the plant must adhere to stringent procedures for waste management to ensure worker safety, public safety and environmental well-being.

     

    The 63-page report, issued Tuesday, said the processing of rare earth produces some by-products which carry some low-level radioactive risks, but such risks are manageable and there are technologies available to effectively render the wastes harmless and safe.

     

    ASM, an independent science and technology 'think-tank", and NPC, a body of more than 1,500 professors from the public and private universities, initiated a comprehensive study on rare earth and its potential contribution to the Malaysian economy.

     

    In the report, titled "Rare Earth Industries: Moving Malaysia's Green Economy Forward", they also said that Lynas Corporation would have to ensure that there is a health scanning of plant employees as well as people working within the immediate vicinity of the plant.

     

    The report said the health scanning is to establish a baseline data on the health of the community living and working around the plant premise.

     

    It also suggested that the "discharge limits for toxic chemicals and heavy metals must meet standards stipulated in the Environmental Quality Act 1974 (and) properly designed permanent storage for low-level radioactive waste must be built to isolate gypsum residues if its beneficiation is not viable".

     

    The plant also needs to construct an interim low-level radioactive waste storage within the premise to accommodate waste produced in the first three years of operation, it added.

     

    The two professional bodies said the rare earth industry is expanding, especially with the growing demand for green products and the global push to embrace the green economy.

     

    "As a result, investments in rare earth mining and processing have also grown. Apart from China, many countries have started to seriously allocate new investments in rare earth refining. "Some have begun reviving their old rare earth mines which were abandoned during times of low pricing," it said.

     

    The report said the Lynas plant in Gebeng will be generating three types of residues, namely Water Leach Purification (http://bit.ly/udbeDH) residue, Flue Gas Desulphurisation (http://bit.ly/v3m0hA) residue and Neutralisation Underflow (http://bit.ly/rIVqQc) residue.

     

    It said the WLP and NUF residues can be considered as raw materials for other industry, for example WLP can be used as raw material in making gypsum plaster and NUF as fertiliser.

     

    Storage and handling of the residues can be overcome because WLP residue contains mainly calcium sulphate, which is also known as synthetic gypsum, while NUF residue is rich in magnesium, the report said.

     

    Meanwhile, ASM chief executive officer Dr Ahmad Ibrahim told reporters after issuing the report that claims that the Lynas plant would emit radiation detrimental to public health were not true.

     

    He said the risks of the Lynas operation were manageable.

     

    However, the company had failed to engage actively with the community in giving a detailed explanation of the project, he said.

     

    "The Lynas management should enhance the understanding, transparency and visibility of its regulatory actions in the eyes of the public, particularly those actions related to inspection and enforcement of the proposed rare earth processing facility," he said.

     

    Dr Ahmad said the actual rare earth business was good for the future as it led to the making of materials for the use of science and technology, including green technology, and was a good industry for Malaysia towards achieving its Vision 2020 of becoming a developed country. BERNAMA.

     

    http://bit.ly/w37qeA
    20 Dec 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Great article Chi, it really seems to me that the momentum behind LAMP has clearly shifted to the Lynas side and Malaysian insiders are actually looking at LAMP as the asset it really is...
    20 Dec 2011, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This does look like a prelude to approval. It seems like it is intellectuals providing cover for a government approval that some in the public are skeptical about.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    We saw LYC attempt to run-up a few days back after the Batou announcement down under. With the macro cloud temporarily lifted...I expect to see the same (1.2x) tonight...adding LYSDY today.
    20 Dec 2011, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I have Lynas first to production...followed by a tie GW and Moly (leaning Moly). Anyone have an opinion about the 4 and 5 spots?
    20 Dec 2011, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Rain I agree with Lynas and see big daylight to Moly (mid to end 2013) and then even bigger daylight to Arafura, Alkane and Frontier. GW says nothing so I have nothing to say either.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Maybe it's just me, but I can't get interested in paying blue chip stock prices for Molycorp when the rest of the field go for so much less.

     

    Why on earth is this stock so high? From what I understand, they are miles away from production.
    20 Dec 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Nick,
    The market is seeing it your way. Depending on what Moly's next earnings are you many not be paying a blue chip price if the earning hold up. If they drop with the REE prices then Moly's PE would jump again. But I'm starting to think Moly would be better off spending like mad, showing quarterly losses and showing big progress on Phoenix. It seems the current desire to have positive quarters is holding them back.
    20 Dec 2011, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1615) | Send Message
     
    Because it's in the US. If (God forbid since LYSDY is still my biggest position in the space) Malaysia were to nationalize Lynas's operations there or Australia tax miners at 50% or Greenland change its mind or if, if, if...

     

    Screwed up as the EPA and Gov Moonbeam are, we know that if national security depends upon it, we will have the resource available to us without having to protect our sea lanes with massively expensive armed convoys or further loss of blood and treasure. Putting one less American in harm's way to secure an essential resource gives MCP a premium valuation.
    20 Dec 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    But then, if Uncle Sam would be looking at home grown material resources (provided the environmentalists would let them) then that's surely where Alaskan and Canadian miners would pick up a lot of the slack..
    20 Dec 2011, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Na Joseph.
    Nationalizing LAMP? Not much risk there without a link. Moly will be fine down the road but the real question is what happens to Moly if LAMP is approved. Is it good because it improves the political REE environment? Perhaps.
    On the negative side, what happens if LAMP is approved and Moly earnings drop on lower REE prices? For now I'll wait and see on Moly.
    20 Dec 2011, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1615) | Send Message
     
    Hey Chi,

     

    One of the things that makes me a hopefully better investor but also deprives me of a lot of the big home runs is that I discount NO risk! I consider them all, no matter how far-fetched, when I make my decisions, and geopolitics is a huge part of that risk assessment. Could Malaysia become a Sharia state? Only a remote risk. But, yes, it could. Could they expropriate Lynas's property in that event? Sure. It's one of those "if, if, if" things I mentioned that makes me stay diversified!
    21 Dec 2011, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, I suppose any country has some geopolitical risk. And even Moly has "California Green" risk. But the Malaysian government has been the same for over 50 years and the "1Malaysia!" seems popular socially. So no we can never rule anything out totally. But every risk needs to be more than merely seen, it needs to be weighed and watched. Right now this risk is very small and I see it decreasing at the moment. Many blog about the next election as a big issue. I think it is a small event in the stock for now. The risk Moly does not get their gas line and has to redesign is much greater IMO for an example.
    21 Dec 2011, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/uePvqj

     

    I'm long IAALF, and have been successful trading it over the past year, booking profits and accumulating core shares. Currently buying at $.11-, and taking profits at $.14+. This sort of trading channel has been common, 20/30%.
    20 Dec 2011, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    FWIW, expected "green economy" driven demand for rare earths 5-10 years out may fall somewhat short of many projections. Apart from demand risks in less than projected up-take of electric vehicles, wind power, etc. there is the risk of demand displacement by development of alternative materials.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/7th... hints at progress in the substitute materials arena.
    20 Dec 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    The occasional hints at substitute materials create an aura of suspense for future rare earths development scenarios. The experimenters should keep at it and we should be alert to see if anything realistic results. Opinions vary.
    http://bit.ly/vHDJLx
    20 Dec 2011, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Why Manganese-Gallium Is Not The Next Neodymium-Iron-Boron
    by Gareth Hatch on December 20, 2011
    http://bit.ly/uy2hnD
    21 Dec 2011, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    Valley Boy, chihawk: Thanks for the reference to
    http://bit.ly/vHDJLx

     

    I am a neophyte (virginal actually) with respect to REE investing and don't expect to rush into anything without development of much, much better understanding of the "lay of the land". ( :) Really not interested in 'Arizona beach front property.' )

     

    The article's perspective on pricing of Ga relative to other rare earths and supply associations with aluminum and zinc is informative. So might be Gareth Hatch's observation that "a “highly coercive” magnet material, is not the same thing as a “super-strong” magnetic material."
    21 Dec 2011, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, I guess D-inv is on one side of the spectrum and I am on the other. From here the risk of demand is to the upside IMO.

     

    The problem with the substitute arguments for me is they face the same problem ROW rare earths face: It is not whether we can create substitutes, it is creating the supply chain and getting the new technologies to market before the rare earths are available. If the substitute is better than the rare earth it replaces I give the innovation a great chance. But if the substitute is cheap and inferior it faces a hard road to the market IMO. So far I consider most substitute articles as a weak bluff at this stage. Always worth a read I guess.
    20 Dec 2011, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Here it is Chi, another positive Bernama story (actually more color on your post)…

     

    KUALA LUMPUR: To help fuel Malaysia's drive to achieve high income status by 2020, Malaysia needs to discover and venture into new economic growth areas.

     

    And rare earth could be the country's new growth area, said Dr Ahmad Ibrahim, Chief Executive Officer of the Academic of Sciences Malaysia (ASM).

     

    "Our oil, land and other reserves are depleting, so we need to look for new opportunities and this is one of it," he told reporters after the launch of a report titled "Rare Earth Industries: Moving Malaysia's Green Economy Forward" here today.

     

    He said the entire scale of high-tech industries depended on a sustainable supply of rare earth elements. Rare earth is widely used in manufacturing of an extensive range of downstream products which find wide applications in such industries including aerospace, consumer electronics, automotive and telecommunications.

     

    "If Malaysia is serious about moving into this industry, we need to partner with a lot of businesses and companies which are already in the market because they have access and technology to the market.

     

    "We cannot do this alone," he said.

     

    Ahmad said that by venturing into a partnership, it could help Malaysia build its own human capital, technology and resources to be one of the leading players in the industry.

     

    Demand would grow for rare earth minerals and Malaysia should not just focus on the low value from upstream but also to venture further into the downstream as it would help to foster the nation's economy, he said.

     

    At present, Malaysia has 30,000 tonnes of rare earth reserves coming from the residual tin deposits. - BERNAMA

     

    http://bit.ly/rqu9AA
    21 Dec 2011, 12:14 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    All of these Bernama stories are good. Hopefully they indicate the home stretch. If they go on a few more days I would be sure. But we have seen it go back and forth before. Sure would like a % complete to support the good news cycle.
    21 Dec 2011, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Chua supports Lynas, says Gebeng plant is safe
    http://bit.ly/slQKGu
    21 Dec 2011, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/rXEyWx

     

    QREDF Quantum making progress.
    21 Dec 2011, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This is a nice press release for this time of year. It is "fluff" as far as new news, but there are a few REE stocks out there that certainly should consider this type of "year in review" update IMO. Overall "Good job Quantum". The shareholder friendly attitude deserves a thumbs up. Hard work and good luck in the new year guys! Such is the life of a junior.
    21 Dec 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » QREDF up about 35% today... Near my sell target for cheapest bloc of $.15.
    22 Dec 2011, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    What's the current take on the long term viability of Quest and Tasman?

     

    Nice range of heavies, but will they come to fruition?
    21 Dec 2011, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Nick,
    I think Quest makes it, but it is going to take a while. Much longer than the current timeline IMO. There will be plenty more chances to buy it at 52 week lows before production. Still I would not be surprised if some day I am a good sized Quest holder. Currently I have no position as I consider it firmly in the "orphan stage". Others like Tasman, I'm taking a pass right now.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Dec 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    My compliments on perspective laid out in reference URL and thanks for sharing.
    21 Dec 2011, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    Here's some more thoughts about Quest.
    I have to concur that their geographic location is the main challenge for them, too.
    http://bit.ly/u9cvTg
    21 Dec 2011, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4212) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Valley Boy, for that reference. At 56 degrees N. latitude one is generally talking about permafrost country., but is within about 200 km of the Labrador-Newfoundland coast and may sport a warmer, wetter climate than is typical of that latitude.
    21 Dec 2011, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think you are definitely right about Quest's challenge VB, but I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about it. People I've discussed it with north of the border are confident that the government will soon be heavily subsidizing their infrastructure requirements. To Chi's point earlier, that means they likely won't be setting new land speed records up there right away. However, it also means the Quest doesn't have to commit capex to it.
    22 Dec 2011, 05:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    It might make for a very positive scenario if Vale would team up with Quest and the Labrador government about infrastructure and potential profit sharing. Vale should be able to put up some of the funds to construct a haul road from the mines to Voisey's Bay on the Labrador Coast. Voisey's Bay is where Vale has a nickel project and port. I wonder if that is something they would be interested in.
    22 Dec 2011, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    It seems that preliminary plans for Plan Nord focus on areas of Northern Quebec located away from Quest's Strange Lake and Misery Lake projects, from what I can gather. The James Bay region, Labrador Trough, Gulf of St. Lawrence littoral, Otish Basin and a potential Arctic oriented harbor near Ungava Bay are mentioned for some ambitious Plan Nord development scenarios.
    http://pwc.to/ups0p3
    http://bit.ly/uFlWEK
    22 Dec 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    VB,

     

    I agree, and earlier last spring, I heard some mention of something to that effect, but do not recall the details. However, it seems that Quebec and Labrador have some hard feelings going on between them for some reason and speculation was that the two provinces working cooperatively would not be a likely scenario.
    28 Dec 2011, 02:25 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    I notice that there is a difference of opinion between the two provinces as to where the border should be in the southern part of Labrador. Most maps have it as a straight line. Quebec's government shows it as a crooked line located some miles to the north of the straight line. It makes me wonder what the mineral wealth of the contested territory amounts to.
    Both the straight line and the crooked line are shown in this link.
    http://bit.ly/to823P
    28 Dec 2011, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    VB,

     

    The planned line from Schefferville is up to Kuujjuaq, which would leave it, I believe, less than 200km from Strange Lake. Granted that is still a big road to build, but on a relative basis, I'm thinking that its prospects are much brighter than 1 year ago.

     

    I sent Quest an email requesting their GPS coordinates so I can accurately plot it on Google Earth. I'll post a link when/if I get it done.
    4 Jan 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Great read there Chi, and thanks for your pointer.

     

    It confirms my thought that there's a lot of pie in the sky out there, and that I'll just stick to Lynas and GW for the moment, in addition to exploring some lithium, potash and uranium plays.

     

    Interesting reading, and I'll assimilate that over the Christmas break.

     

    Thanks as always.

     

    Nick
    21 Dec 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hitachi adding to magnet jobs in the U.S. (customer for MCP, of course): http://bit.ly/tm8sqC
    22 Dec 2011, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    repost from yahoo: interesting comments on Saldanha Bay in SA. Looks like they are trying to get that cranked up to speed.
    http://bit.ly/vDpxP2

     

    About Saldanha Bay, +/- 350 km from Vanrhijnsdorp...

     

    It took me a while to translate this interesting article in proper English, to share it with some serious, smart investors on this board...

     

    http://bit.ly/tNRe6i...

     

    Dutch parties are involved in the ambitious plans to significantly expand the port of Saldanha Bay, South Africa, and to develop the hinterland with high-tech and clean industries. The arrival of an Industrial Development Zone and a possible partnership with the Port of Rotterdam, have to clear the way for an investment, worth billions. Leading consultant Peter Stuivenberg expects that the project can commence in 2012 and will yield more than forty thousand permanent jobs in 2030.
    The largest natural deep sea port in the southern hemisphere. Trains to major cities and the mines in northern South Africa. Enough space to process raw materials into products while maintaining nature, to develop business centers and build housing and clean technology energy. And an excellent solution to to spare the congested port , located 140 km south of Cape Town. Peter Stuivenberg, principal consultant of the Saldanha industrial development project, lists effortlessly why the underdeveloped port of Saldanha Bay on the west coast of South Africa should be given a new impetus and is the most suitable location for a large and economically diversified Industrial Development Zone innovative businesses to create.

     

    "Ports are the lungs of a country," he explains. "And the ports in South Africa are currently sludging. If the country wants to follow the growth in other African countries and the BRICS, it will need developing and have to create jobs, such as adding value to existing materials and improve the business climate. Several companies already want to go there and invest. All what the Saldanha national and provincial government asks back for, is an extra boost. If the area is made accessible as an Industial Development Zone with tax benefits, the project can take off the ground, large-scaled. That process is now underway, including through feasability studies. If all goes well, we can launch in the second quarter of 2012. "

     

    With the extensive Saldanha Bay industrial development project, billions of euros are involved. It focuses on the high-tech industrial development zone and attuned expansion and modernization of the port. Saldanha is still a fairly one-sided export port for iron ore to Arcelor Mittal, soon there will be docks for repair and maintenance of huge drilling platforms must be built. It should also be possible to commodities other than iron ore through the port to export. There are discussions underway to include the Port of Rotterdam at these developments involve and Saldanha Bay in their global network of ports to be included. In that case, the arrival of a new container port in the line of expectation.
    According to Stuivenberg, a proper alignment of the industrial area with the port wil be THE catalyst to get new industries to the area. Some companies have already announced to invest significantly. Rare Metal Industries (RMI) wants to invest, about 1.5 billion euros in a clean refinery for the available commodities to distillate rare metals such as titanium, zirconium and magnesium for export and local use. Stuivenberg: "Those are precisely the industries that this country needs. Now commodities mostly leave the country for not much more than a pittance. This must change. There are also plans to convert biodiesel into proteins, using Saldanha to export to India and China. And so many other industries can develop here. "
    ...
    22 Dec 2011, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    just for keeping track...

     

    I added GW and am adding the gold miners in the IRA. (bigger chunk than usual too-- yay!)
    22 Dec 2011, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Hey I probably won't be around so I wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, or any other holiday you may be celebrating. The main point would be to relax and have fun with family and friends! :) well and food, of course...
    22 Dec 2011, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all and their families!
    24 Dec 2011, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for this tip from Gareth Hatch on TMR: US Department of Energy (DOE) has released an update to its Critical Materials Strategy.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/suDxl9
    22 Dec 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    isn't that an oxymoron: US dept of Energy and strategy?
    22 Dec 2011, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its dead center of the long running REE narrative.

     

    Its odd that the current administration will address essentially the same list of materials and issues from the stadpoint of alternative/green energy, and bewail the problems, while a likely new Administration from the polar political opposite will worry about the (even more advanced) problems from the stadpoint of national defense and economic necessity.
    22 Dec 2011, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2335) | Send Message
     
    Construction contract awarded for capacity expansion of Lynas' Mt Weld plant -- work to begin February: http://yhoo.it/tGQwbT

     

    Also note that ASX closes early today and reopens Wednesday.
    22 Dec 2011, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Mercy.

     

    I suppose now is a good time to suggest that folks check out the LYSCF chart for the last trading day of 2010. Pretty phenomenal result there. Food for thought...
    22 Dec 2011, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    12/31/10: LYSDY closed 2.16 with a low of 2.02 and a high of 2.17. A couple days later, it had a high of 2.39.

     

    I am still curious what the eventual outcome will be on LYSDY/LYSCF. E*Trade told me:
    "I do not see any offer to convert shares at this time. So you would have to sell one and buy the other if you choose." Since there are 100s of thousands of LYSCF shares out there, it seems to me there will have to be a conversion at some point.
    24 Dec 2011, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Correction -- that was what LYSCF closed at in my above message.
    24 Dec 2011, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: You still preferring LYSDY?
    23 Dec 2011, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been trading blocs back and forth to pick up some artbitrage, but in general terms, yes.
    23 Dec 2011, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    excellerated volume today in LYSDY, btw
    23 Dec 2011, 12:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Company announcement for LYNAS Corporation Limited On ASX.
    http://tinyurl.com/7r2...

     

    December 23, 2011.

     

    LYNAS LampsUp-WA EPC Contract.
    Forge Group Limited has received a Letter of Award for the Engineering, Procurement. Construction and Commissioning Assistance [EPC] Contract for Lynas Corporation LampsUP-WA project near Laverton in Western Australia.

     

    The LampsUp-WA project involves expansion of Lynas’ Mt Weld Rare Earths Concentration Plant to increase design throughput capacity from the current 120,000 tpa to 240,000 tpa.

     

    The contract value is approximately $36m, and Abesque’s scope of works under the contract involves the design, supply, installation and provision of commissioning assistance for the expanded processing facilities and associated infrastructure items for the project. Site construction works are planned to commence in February 2012.
    23 Dec 2011, 06:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those tpa figures are wrong.
    23 Dec 2011, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    That's what the release says. What are the correct figures?

     

    In addition, I figure they would not be adding new capacity without having a pretty good idea that Lamp wold be approved.

     

    Do they have a spare 36M or ???
    23 Dec 2011, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The design for the LAMP for phase 1 is 11,000 metric tonnes per year capacity, and phase 2 is to be twice that, or 22,000 tonnes. Maybe they are bumping them up to 12 and 24,000, but not 10 times that.

     

    Their plan for some time was to start phase 2 and build it out along with phase 1 where that made sense and saved time and money (smart plan, when you are adding facilities under one roof in particular).

     

    The link did not work for me a few minutes ago, though the asterisk still registered on ASX - maybe they are working on the file...
    23 Dec 2011, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/uXy2UU

     

    HardToLove
    23 Dec 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    FPA,

     

    I agree. It would seem rather foolish to be making a $37 commitment for expansion if you weren't exceptionally confident that you were going to get the necessary blessing to put existing facilities into full production.

     

    I don't think they need $36M. That is the value of the whole Phase 2 award for construction. Payments on these things are almost always made in at least several installments based on achieving set milestones.
    23 Dec 2011, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm they are talking about the concentrator... you are talking about the LAMP. Could they be talking about tons of raw ore where the LAMP deals with concentrate?
    23 Dec 2011, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Of course! Sorry for the confusion, I did indeed think they were talking about the LAMP, and had just your quote to go by (but I still should have figured it out).
    23 Dec 2011, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    It would appear that 240,000 tpa (mined) would be a (final product) TREO recovery of 9.2%

     

    Also it would appear that Sojitz is basically blessing the development of Phase 2 with little concern for LAMP approval. I would think that if there was any doubt they would have held off until solid POL news was released… JMO...
    23 Dec 2011, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Don't think that this has been posted, another one of Chi's positive stories :c)

     

    http://bit.ly/uMlse4
    23 Dec 2011, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    IAALF was up a nice 2¢ at one point today. It has been trending up since a 10.6¢ low on Dec. 15.
    23 Dec 2011, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Didn't get a chance to send holiday wishes to everyone earlier today, so here it is, posted on the QC earlier, but certainly intended for everyone here as well.

     

    Good evening everyone,

     

    I had to scoot off to the 9-5 grind this morning and never did get a chance to send off holiday wishes to you. Just getting back fro the rat race a 1/2 hr ago, and though it's late and I'm sure my thoughts may not reach many of you immediately, I'd like to pass them along just the same:

     

    Many thanks to all for your kind advice and assistance throughout the year. I find it invaluable, even on the occasion that we may disagree. In fact, sometimes that's when I find it to be of greatest value. The community on both the QC and on TB's REE Concentrator are a wonderful group of very intelligent and resourceful people. I'd like to extend my thanks and appreciation for the very kind way that you've made me welcome.

     

    I would also like to wish you all a very safe and happy holiday season that provides many cherished memories. May all of your hearts, and those of your family and loved ones, be filled with joy and peace.

     

    Egg
    24 Dec 2011, 02:09 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Happy Christmas everyone..
    24 Dec 2011, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/rTSyLe

     

    Yay! I am looking forward to this one. 83 mpg?!?! wow.
    26 Dec 2011, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2335) | Send Message
     
    "China ... will keep 2012 export quotas “basically level” with this year, as high prices and a slowing global economy sap demand." According to Bloomberg quota may be about 31,130 metric tons for the year. Actual exports YTD have been about 49% of the 2011 allowed limit: http://bloom.bg/tqGVgQ
    27 Dec 2011, 06:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Taking profits on IAALF and QREDF this morning...

     

    Lurking below buy targets for AXPW, GWMGF, TAMO and UURAF.
    27 Dec 2011, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think UURAF passes GWMGF this week. Or should I say that the other way around since they are both near lows?

     

    It does not look like the quota is a catalyst for the sector. Still, I see no evidence of weakness long term in the REE space. Is this buying opportunity in rare earths with Japan possibly finding it's economic legs and the US starting to look like a real recovery? Could good news out of Lynas or Moly lead the sector up? Or will bad news lead things down further? My guess is good news is lurking for Lynas and bad news on Phoenix is coming soon as well. I think both events will whip saw things from here.
    27 Dec 2011, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    What sort of bad news do you anticipate for Moly, the gas line not going through, or just further delays, or...?
    28 Dec 2011, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    I don't expect any comment good or bad on the gas line for a while. I am mostly looking at the Phoenix photos and spend and seeing an unrealistic timeline. Longterm I do not see are big problems at the moment. I think the stock is getting hurt by quota interpretations, but most of that should pass quickly in my mind. I think some of that is heightened right now due to the low volumes.
    28 Dec 2011, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi-
    hypothetically what would Lynas do if they did not receive the LAMP approval? Would they try to build somewhere else? It seems like you think it is a done deal which is great but I am just wondering what a plan B would look like with Lynas?
    Hope all had a Merry Christmas and it is on to the next holiday for fun,family and food!
    27 Dec 2011, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    Lynas has not discussed a plan B when asked. I do think it is a done deal and have invested that way.
    27 Dec 2011, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I know. I was just wondering what would a Plan B look like IF they were to have to fall back. I was just asking, Chi. I am not implying anything other than playing "what if".

     

    Does any one else care to hypotheticalize the Plan B?

     

    I do have a real concrete question as well about LAMP...When is the projected date for the permit?
    27 Dec 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert,
    Lynas has made no announcement on a projected date for the permit. They are reluctant after having had their wrist slapped earlier for making statements and preempting the process. My GUESS (and there are many others with differing views) is that we will hear something within the next two weeks. The AELB website says expected time frames for approval are in the order of 3 to 6 months for most licenses. The process started last May with a few iterations of submissions, with final acceptance of the application around the beginning of October (I think so, at least...the coy announced the final paperwork had been submitted at the end of September in the quarterly report, and the AELB acknowledged receiving it soon after that (http://bit.ly/u3PXbf)). Also, the coy had said they expect to be earning money by the end of Q1 2012 and, given the ramp up time requirements (45-60 days) and ore shipping time frames (3 weeks), that would mean they need to be shipping within the next couple weeks. So, my theory is we either hear news that we are on track for the reported schedule (and that licenses are therefore in place) or we hear that we are not going to be earning money by Q1 and that we are delayed based upon the approval process taking longer than anticipated. Also, there is the issue of LAMP completion which we expect by the end of January. Hope that helps.
    27 Dec 2011, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    I don't think there is a realistic chance that LAMP is NOT approved.

     

    I suppose plan B is to buy GW in bankruptcy. But I don't think that will happen now either. But I am not implying anything other than playing "what if".

     

    Curtis has said he will not set a date for the permit out of respect for the permitting process. He has only said first feed 2012 Q1 and production 2012 H1.
    27 Dec 2011, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Freo, thanks for the reply and timeline.
    28 Dec 2011, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://nyti.ms/vCKYpc

     

    well according to this article the new prius only gets 53 mpg. Not that much improvement....
    27 Dec 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    I personally think that the most important decision concerning the LAMP approval will come on January 9 of 2012. This is the day that the Malaysian courts are expected to deliver a verdict on the guilt or innocence of Malaysia's opposition figurehead Anwar Ibrahim. The trial is over charges that allege Anwar participated in acts of Sodomy which is illegal in Malaysia and carries severe penalties. Appparently there is significant DNA evidence and it is also the second time Anwar has been tried on sodomy charges. He was convicted on the earlier charges and spent 6 years in jail before that verdict was overturned. He faces up to 20 years on the new charges.

     

    Anwar's is viewed as the most credible challenge to Najib in the next election and is the leader of the Pakatan Rakyat part (same party as Fuziah)... Anwar was the former deputy prime minister he claims this trial is a repeat of a political conspiracy. A guilty verdict probably wil anger his supporters and cause a spike in political tensions. 

     

    From what I am reading, most people seem to think he will be found guilty Anwar himself was quoted as saying "It doesn't make a difference -- in jail or outside, I will fight for justice"

     

    In any event any guilty charge may disorganize the political structure of the opposition and could trigger Najib to call for immediate elections. He has the right to call for elections at any time between every 4 and 5 years with that date being 2013.

     

    Personally I think Najib will wait until the end of the year to let his latest economic stimulus efforts take affect but this is my opinion only...
    28 Dec 2011, 02:15 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Toly...interesting post. I am unclear as to what your view is on the outcome of this if it indeed does take place. If the verdict is guilty and Najib is the benefactor, hard to say if that would immediately impact the approval process and in what manner...
    28 Dec 2011, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    I am following this Anwar trial with great interest. As I said, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the will be convicted. IMO it will be the sentence he is handed that will determine just how it will be taken by the opposition. He can get up to 20 years which may piss off the opposition to claim he was railroaded. I am hopping for a 2 year prison sentence which will both take him out of circulation for the next elections and diminish the Rakyat presence in Malaysia as a whole. Keep an eye on this, it is a big picture issue in Malaysia…
    29 Dec 2011, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Lynas gets a mention in today's WSJ regarding REE pricing. The article cites a 60% decrease in lanthanum and a 58% decrease in cerium oxides prices based on the data from Lynas. It also points out that pricing and global demand are still well above last year's levels. China says it's initially cutting 27% from its 2012 export quotas to try to match exports with demands of the different REEs.

     

    Lynas was down 4¢ in Oz last night.
    28 Dec 2011, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    I was just looking at the same thing. The basket price is just over $100 now...(http://bit.ly/nPJlrM)
    28 Dec 2011, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/uQaP6q

     

    interview with Jon Hykawy ...mentions Matamec, Great Western, Fronier, Ucor, Lynas and Moycorp.

     

    regarding GW:

     

    TCMR: Great Western Minerals is Byron Capital Markets' top pick in the REE space. The firm recently participated in a financing for the company. Does that limit your objectivity on that name?

     

    JH: That's a fun question, but no. We make our picks and do the work on a fundamental basis irrespective of our involvement with a company.

     

    For example, I had a Buy recommendation on Molycorp Inc. (MCP:NYSE) when it did its initial public offering. However, I transitioned to a Sell when I felt the value of Molycorp had gone too high. Now that things have fallen off, we've transitioned back to a Buy recommendation because there's value there.

     

    There is no direct drive between what I do on the research side and what our bankers do. If my clients believe that my objectivity has been spoiled and that I'm touting deals for the sake of pushing some revenue through the door, we quickly would have no clients at all.

     

    We participated in the Great Western deal because Great Western is our top pick in the space, because we do believe there's a great deal of value there and because we would be happy to have our clients own a stock where we are fairly certain that the returns are not going to embarrass us.

     

    TCMR: In a Dec. 1 research report on Great Western, you noted that the company's latest round of financing was not sufficient to complete mine construction and required processing plants. However, you expect additional non-dilutive financing. What form will that financing likely take?

     

    JH: There are two possibilities. GWG's prospective partner, Aichi Steel of the Toyota Group, may provide financing in the form of debt. There's also the prospect for non-dilutive financing in the form of offtake agreements—cash payments up front for guaranteed supplies of material and even perhaps material at a discount later.

     

    TCMR: Who are the likely players to come forward for those agreements?

     

    JH: It could be an entity like Toyota Tsusho that will take the material and sell it within the Toyota group and to outside entities. It could be a group like Albemarle or a BASF, which needs lanthanum and cerium for its catalytic materials, but have been buying those materials from Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group Co. Ltd. (GQD) (which GWG has partnered with on a solvent extraction joint venture). Knowing that the quality of material out of GWG will be the quality of material that GQD has always produced, there may be a number of offtake partners emerging soon.
    28 Dec 2011, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    When the Gold Report asks you about your credibility I consider it the definition of "Jumping the Shark" when it comes to pumping. I have no respect for Jon Hykawy.
    And what is he saying about Moly? He had a Buy on them when Byron was in the IPO and then Byron sold them on valuation and he put a sell on them. Now Moly fell back and he has a buy? Is Byron back in Moly? If so, that is all just more proof that Hykawy just talks his book. If your want GW on the annual low I can see the logic (but don't agree), but either way it's no reason to listen to Hykawy IMO.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    as far as I can recall, the guy was spot on wiht his MCP call. He had the 35$ on them when Dalhman and JPM were upping theirs...people were certainly laughing at him the. Credit where credit is due, imo.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OK aqwert.
    That's fair. But in that case give the same credit to the entire concentrator. I think we all had Moly early on (and some at the IPO). By the spring everyone here was bashing them on valuation; and now some bought the preferred at different levels on the drop. I'll take anyone on the concentrator over Hykway, yourself included. I hope you take that as a compliment.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So would I, Chi. I've been pricing MCP at about half its peak price for quite a while now...

     

    I might just dig back and see who first set the $3x price (I believe mine was $36, and then $38 later, and DG was $39) back when.
    28 Dec 2011, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Somewhere around April I put a "Strong sell and I'll kick you in the groin if you buy" rating on MCP with a price target around $16. I reiterated once or twice and have yet to change it. I'm thinking about raising that price target these days. TB, I think you and the others are the May link.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    28 Dec 2011, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Certainly you guys were on it but you are not on national television going contrary to the darling of the REE world and JPM. I think Hykawy appeared once with the guy from Dahlman Rose with Maria Bartiromo and the Dahlman guy gave I think a 125 target and Hykawy said 25 or 35 (I forget which) and Maria actually laughed at him.
    In this day and age, I give alot of credit to anyone who is willing to go on tv and put their reputation on the line and call bullshit against the herd. We don't see enough of that as it is.
    28 Dec 2011, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Put me on TV and I'll call Hykway bullshit against the schoal (no longer a heard) that follow his sorry butt.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Isn't he the same guy that was calling for Lynas to drop to $.3?
    29 Dec 2011, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    He's the guy Freo. I wonder if he got GW and Lynas mixed up? His price targets would be closer if he reversed those two calls.
    29 Dec 2011, 02:48 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    CNBC's Fast Money Halftime talked to the JPM analyst about his lowering his MCP target from $57 to $39. Change in China's export quota and "increased production by MCP and Lynas" are behind this.

     

    The Fast Money people seemed to think it was funny that anyone would invest in MCP.

     

    Anyone else think that discussion was strange?
    28 Dec 2011, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Here's the link to the CNBC video. http://bit.ly/w2B9W6

     

    I haven't been a big fan of Molycorp, although since they'll be the first North American producer, I think the strategic importance of REEs makes them a safe bet in the short-medium term.
    28 Dec 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'll bet it is a good contrarian indicator. If you bought every stock that gets the group desk canned laugh, I think you would outperform each trader.

     

    The show is fun TV, but the research is "mosquito on the surface" stuff. It's like watching CSI and then calling yourself a forensics expert (without staying at a Holiday Inn Express of course). Just enjoy the entertainment IMO.
    28 Dec 2011, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Ung,
    I find it quite odd. Not because I think that Moly is uninvestable, if that is what you were asking, but rather because the discussion doesn't appear to me to have made any sense.

     

    JPM drops their target by 35% because why; because China's export quota is being cut by 20%? (I believe that is accurate. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.) How would that negatively impact Moly's value? ...and "increased production by MCP and Lynas". OK, you now have ex-China supply. Isn't that exactly what you've been betting on all along? Moreover, I certainly would hope that a company that is actually in production is MORE valuable than the one who is just kind of fumbling around.

     

    Am I missing something?
    28 Dec 2011, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Egg, I was listening to the discussion in the car and couldn't believe what I was hearing. A 27% cut by China and with MCP and Lynas still gearing up for any meaningful production and JPM reduces MCP's target. With all this going on and then hearing the guffaws from the panel about anyone wanting to buy MCP stock.

     

    I thought this was truly strange!!

     

    Of course, now I read that the 2011 REE quota wasn't even used (see further down), but that wasn't part of their discussion w/ the analyst.
    28 Dec 2011, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    I read China expects to increase exports by 3%.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    It sounds like the Chinese are concerned about conserving their resources since no one else is available to do it for them.
    http://bit.ly/tF37zX
    28 Dec 2011, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Right Ung, that's what I heard as well. The exports supposedly didn't even total the 2011 quota. Then I read that the Chinese were reducing the quota by 20% for 2012. For the life of me I can't remember for sure where I read it, but I think it was in my Schwab news tool. No details or article; just the headline.

     

    I don't believe for a minute that the quota wasn't used. Particularly giving consideration to the fact that during last summer's iteration of quota accounting, we were counting all RE ores AND all exported products containing REs. I'm certain that the Chinese are using one of their "creative bookkeeping" methods of accounting .... again. I expect that they're simply trying to put financial pressure on sector to hinder progress, while at the same time, conserving their resources for domestic use AND continuing to put doubt in the minds of RE consumes/end-users as to whether or not there will be a viable, reliable ex-China supply anytime in the near future.

     

    None-the-less, that is what the market has to work with for the moment. But it would be nice if we at least had consistent information, albeit flawed.
    29 Dec 2011, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    This is a good article on Moly:
    http://bit.ly/tIKXqj

     

    I do think investors are ignoring the fact that the JPM price target on Moly is based on their own and Lynas' fully ramped up production. And even if both of those things happen and the new JPM rare earth prices in 2012, 2013, and 2014 happen both Lynas and Moly would have big earnings. In other words, if you lower estimates to Moly based on Moly's own future production you still have to see how that production effects their bottom line.
    And having Moly fall more than HUDRF, QREDF, RAREF, or ARAFF makes no sense. These stocks all need LREE sales and are clearly way behind Moly and Lynas and they are outperforming both today.
    28 Dec 2011, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Bought (LYSDY) at 1.05.
    28 Dec 2011, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am thinking these share prices for Lynas are anticipating another delay, 3 months or so. If this is the case, we may see prices in the $.9x range just after the announcement. I am standing pat for now, waiting for news. If we see improvement back to the $1.3x range short term, I may take profits and wait for developments with a smaller core holding.

     

    Similar situation for MCP and GWM now, oddly enough.

     

    Toyota's much-advertised rollout of an entire family of prius hybrids has run into a wet blanket market. This may be affecting the overall REE market, as the prospect for hybrids staying locked in their 3% market share does not sit well with the demand projections... I believe that this was overhyped, and now suffers from a reality check. The debacle of GM's Volt rollout (which was to see a 10fold production increase in 2012) and their safety issues (GM's Chairman recently offered to loan all Volt owners the comparable GM gas engine car while they sorted out those issues) has something to do with that.

     

    With the new CAFE rules roaring down the pike at the manufacturers, however, and similar requirements looming in the EU, the coming demand spike for EVs and HEVs may have to occur as a result of government pushing rather than free market pulling (always troublesome to me)...

     

    On the demand side, the garbled news from China has something to do with the current consternation. News that China's rare earth shipments were much lower than anticipated caught many observers by surprise... LOL, but than again, those are the "official" statistics, and just a trustworthy as the same numbers from our very own BLS. I have been talking about the effect of the Cartel's heavy maneuvering in China this year, which has served to drive a temporary surplus of rare earth supplies out onto the ex-China markets as they subsume their own private sector like the Blob eating a theatre full of slow-running moviegoers. This has been ongoing for the last half of the year. This is my take on the numbers, of course, and impossible to prove, but IF I am even close in this estimate, then...

     

    This temporary surplus of supply in some elements will be gone very soon, and this one-time event will be past. Companies which had been very near to exhausting their stockpiles will have gained some breathing room, and some will have partially restocked some of their reserves. Just as a loose estimate, this might be as much as a 6 month supply (generally speaking, as always it will vary from one element to another).

     

    The first tranch of Chinese exports will be no more than 10kmt or so for the first half of 2010. This is a very low number, but given that China has also eliminated Baotou from the export game, its probably the most that WILL be exported.

     

    Parsing their export news is pretty bizarre at the best of times, and this recent news is particularly difficult. I cannot be sure, but I SEEM to detect some sleight of hand with their numbers since they are talking only about the small number of "authorized" sources (which implies that they are fully aware that presumably "unauthorized" sources have been exporting goods).

     

    28 Dec 2011, 04:13 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    TB:... I am going to take a different tack on the Prius story. I was at a dealership and called another yesterday and got the same story...lots of sales of the new bigger prius but even more interest in the smaller on coming this Spring. I think people are ready and willing with this type of hybrid but the plug in electric is a harder sell. The price tag. the limited range. Where to plug in? Etc. I think people are comfortable with the hybrid version and the electric versions are just too far out of reach for most people.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Overall hybrid sales hit a wall last year. Worldwide its the same story. The fact that this event coincides with the end of many government subsidy programs is not a shock, either.

     

    Toyota has pulled most of its Prius ad campaign - again, not a shock. I believe they will be slowing down the rate of new model introduction, too.

     

    IF they get hit with some of the things waiting in the wings (mandated recycling for battery packs which they do not know how to economically recycle, for instance) from leading edge governments like California and the EU, it could get ugly fast.

     

    Hybrids make sense to me (unlike EVs, which I consider unlikely to succeed in the cold, cruel, real world outside intense urban settings and near-golfcart applications), but only AFTER they achieve the economy of scale prices which we have yet to see. It was thought that the big government subsidies which they have enjoyed for years would be the skyhook they needed, but now it looks like even that was just not enough.

     

    John has been telling us for a long time that the zealots and their projected cost savings for building the battery packs and electric motors (particularly for EVs) were too optimistic, and thus far events are proving him right.

     

    How Toyota does once she has exhausted government welfare payments will be telling. If Toyota can't build hybrids which are successful without subsidies, its unlikely that anyone can.

     

    Another aspect that has entered the picture are the dirt cheap options in 40-45mpg conventional cars costing roughly half the price of the HEVs and EVs. In Europe they have small diesels getting well over 70mpg, without hybridization or expensive battery packs.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    personally, I would love a hybrid deisel. That would be swell!
    28 Dec 2011, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    ditto!
    28 Dec 2011, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'm in aqwerts camp on this. The Prius is the only Toyota made only in Japan. Supply was an issue in showrooms in 2011. I look for Prius sales to jump in 2012. The Volt problems play right into Toyota's hands. Prius owners do care about price, but they are green first. If Prius gives them a decent price, a reliable and safe car and satisfies their green heart it is still the green car for now. Loosing subsidies might take some luster away, but the car has a good following that is more than just based on subsidies IMO. I see the Prius crowd as Starbucks Greenies more than as Walmart shoppers.
    28 Dec 2011, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    all I know, is that things have changed regarding Prius's .. they are not longer "out there" and fringy. Finally I am no longer asked about it which means that folks know what it is. My friends are no longer "amazed" that it drives just. like. a. real. car! (if you own you know what I am talking about) I used to be able to count on one hand the number of Prius's I would see on 95 on the way to PA. Now there are too many to count. And the drivers no longer point and wave. Why? Because it is just another car... albeit a really great car. I just put brakes on the front at 92K-- the first ones lasted that long... because of the braking of the engine as it makes electricity. The rear ones have plenty to go yet. I can't say enough good things about them. Plus I regularly get 50+mpg so I can't complain.
    The Volt and the Leaf are Toyota's gain. And toyota's gain is REE gain...and Aichi's gain and GW's gain and my gain.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Aqwert: I'm not down on Toyotas or Priuses, in fact, I believe hybrids make sense (vs EV's, which usually don't), and I might own one someday. But as someone who spends a lot of time reading and commenting in the automotive world, I also see how things are going.

     

    I believe we will be seeing VW, Ford and Fiat bringing European-spec ultra high mileage conventional models to the American markets right away.

     

    I see a struggle for more expensive hybrids to maintain market share in the face of much cheaper ICE vehicles that can match their gas mileage.
    28 Dec 2011, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB: You don't seem to think LAMP approval is imminent...trying to figure out why you feel that way. Not saying I disagree even...just trying to get a feel for what you are sensing...
    28 Dec 2011, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This was thrashed out 3 or 4 weeks back. Lynas has let the comments stand which were made by the Malay government that 6-7 months (from that time, the whole thing was VERY vague) would elapse before issuing permits. This was never addressed by any counter from Lynas. I took profits on the stock soon after. All this was covered here on the Concentrator.

     

    I still have a large (though not nearly so large as earlier) core holding in Lynas.

     

    I still hope that the more rosy estimates as to issuance of permits are correct. Those estimates vary from a few weeks ago to somewhere in July, all based upon some very vague data.

     

    We are all waiting for an update now from Lynas. The thinking is that the Malay government complained when they were too forthcoming with their expectations about timing earlier, so now they are keeping silent. This sounds logical.
    28 Dec 2011, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    TB, don't forget the diesels. Very, very popular in Europe and I think VW sells them here about as quickly as they get them. Much less complexity than with hybrids.
    28 Dec 2011, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Greetings. I certainly hope your festivities were all you wanted them to be. Good price there.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    I am still on Holiday Robert :) I hope everyone else is still on holiday too. I started accumulating Lynas today. I will continue to add at prices below 1.05. Next tranche 1.03.
    28 Dec 2011, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Dollar is strengthening, Aussie $ expected to have some headwinds. The AUD/USD chart has had the AUD in a downtrend since 10/26/2011. There was one call for it to go as low as $0.90 (today closed at $1.0146).

     

    The dollar index closed today at $80.91, a very nice jump, due to the Euro. If one believes the Euro will continue to weaken, look for the dollar to continue up.

     

    Might want to keep a target for Lynas <= $1 handy JIC.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2011, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Hi HT.. I agree with you ... My buy plan is 33% 1.05, 1.03, 67% $1 or less.

     

    I'm with Trip - I think people are selling because LAMP did not get its operating permits at the end of this year. I also expected some selling pressure this week for tax purposes. I decided to add to my holdings on the news that they were funding phase II expansion for the ore concentrator. I interpreted that as bullish.

     

    The evidence supports the notion that the Chinese are performing price control support [China cuts 2012 rare earth export quota by 27pc] http://tinyurl.com/brv.... So I am not particularly concerned by reductions in prices due to demand reduction as several markets move into recession. There may be a temporary reduction in prices, but it appears the Chinese will just reduce supply in that event. This should tend to decouple the stock price from the supply side of the equation.

     

    I agree with Chi that the drop in price support for MCP is due to lack of build-out progress and questions about funding. If (MCP) is going to beat the drum in the future, it’s going to have to be a bigger drum in conjunction with some kind of tangible progress on their build-outs or ‘real’ deals, not letters of intent.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    "Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- China, the biggest supplier of rare earths, will keep 2012 overseas sales quotas virtually unchanged after exporters used only half the amount allotted for this year as buyers sought to cut usage and amid complaints over restrictions from trading partners."

     

    Hmmm...

     

    Full article at http://buswk.co/uwXiKc
    28 Dec 2011, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that link Ungawah.
    28 Dec 2011, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    Does it not worry you guys that end users didn't even use all of the "reduced" Chinese quota for 2011? Is this just poor global demand after several years of world glut?
    I was hoping that rare earths would have a greater presence in our world. I don't want my rare earth investment to turn into a dud.
    28 Dec 2011, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6183) | Send Message
     
    Japan took a big manufacturing hit with that earthquake and subsequent hit to their power grid. I suspect because of that, they drew down their stockpiles.

     

    I also see two kinds of supply sources. One from a source that has demonstrated it will increase prices irrespective of contracts, will reduce available supplies at the drop of a hat and is willing to use access as a political weapon verses supplies from a source that respects contracts and consequently allows their clients to reduce their inventories and associated costs.
    28 Dec 2011, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is showing that the current pricing for their REEs is US$103.76/kg based on FOB China prices. If I'm not mistaken, this is not a major problem for them.
    28 Dec 2011, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5038) | Send Message
     
    Here's the latest from G. Hatch @ TMR regarding 2012 ree Chinese allocation:
    http://bit.ly/t8NEE7
    28 Dec 2011, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks OG. Garreth does one of the best jobs of parsing the export quotas that I have seen.

     

    I would suggest that there are other scenarios which might be guiding the size and composition of this year's quotas, other than reacting to market forces and price... China may be continuing to move rare earths around the playing board to enhance their geopolitical goals. In general terms I would be cautious making plans based upon the Chinese government being moved by what are to them small sums of additional revenue brought in by selling more exported rare earths.

     

    They are also prone to modifying these quotas mid-year, so paying attention to how they lay out in the two separate tranches still makes sense.
    28 Dec 2011, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    My copy of today's FT has an article entitled "China lifts export quotas for rare earths." Looks like they have quickly replaced it on their website with "China rare earths move unlikely to buoy prices."

     

    Looks like a whole lot of parsing going on.
    29 Dec 2011, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Jim Engdahl on BNN 11:30 EST today. Discussing China quotas impact.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Dec 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you owe me a coke, HTL
    29 Dec 2011, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    GW ceo Jim Engdahl to be on BNN to discuss REE/China at 11:30 today
    29 Dec 2011, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    You owe me a Coke Aqwert. If timestamps showed seconds, I'm sure I won! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    29 Dec 2011, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I think anyone younger that we are are saying what the hell are they talking about!?! ;)
    29 Dec 2011, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    So what happens if Engdahl just discusses the quota and says "things are going great at GW, but we can't offer details at this moment"?
    29 Dec 2011, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I guess we'll say the same things you say while you wait for NC to say something.
    29 Dec 2011, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    I agree Curtis should give shareholders a construction update. I think Malaysia should approve yesterday or risk harm to future development projects. Malaysia is a pitiful place for business IMO at this stage. But if Curtis said a construction update it would support the stock IMO. My question is will Endahl support or hurt the GW stock if he cannot be specific at this time?
    29 Dec 2011, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    depends. I guess. If he goes on tv and says that the deal is on and it is days not weeks (see comment below) I think that is an excellent sign. But at least he is out there. As long as he doesn't blow it I think it is a positive.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe GWM has no news right now. Discussing the export quotas is an excuse to get some face time and reiterate the narrative, plus some positive sounding verbiage. Sorry, Aqwert, but even a reassurance that the deal is "days away" will do little at this point, particularly for those, like me, that see GQD as just stringing them along.

     

    As for Lynas and a construction update, that might cut both ways as well. Since its obvious that construction is lagging behind earlier projections, reiterating (over a month since the last such utterance) that construction is continuing and permitting is still in the works might just make folks even more nervous.

     

    Of course, at some point the CEOs HAVE to face the music, when things get delayed and badness happens, though inevitably an attempt is made to apply copious amounts of carnegie-esque spin.

     

    Should either party (and oh yes, I definitely put MCP in the same bubbling lobster pot) fail to deliver something solid the next time they plant themselves in front of a microphone, the risk-off, impatient and irritable investor class is likely to react negatively.

     

    This is a market which can really react swiftly to good news, which is definitely NOT built into any of the share prices right now. Rah-rah sessions, though, will just further irritate people and propel more selling pressure.

     

    IMO.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB and aqwert,
    Good conversation. I think I'm somewhere in between both of you. If Curtis gave us a 93% complete update (I'll make that the over/ under) it's positive. If he gave no number and said "I feel great, did you all enjoy your holiday?" I go nuts as one of TB's impatient and irritable investors.
    I think GW would respond well to a "days not weeks" comment. How long that lasts would depend of course on the days that follow, but aqwert is giving us a good angle to view it from. Good commentary aqwert IMO.
    Moly, is a "tough as a two day old taquito" issue IMO. There TB's "badness" has a risk of becoming true madness. I mean they are giving us photos and fly overs, but I just don't see on time and on budget no matter what Smith says. If he ends up right, Moly is a world class bargain. And Smith has more experience than me on rare earth plants. But I just don't believe him.
    Earlier I said a kitchen sink moment is coming for Moly IMO. But it would take real guts to do something like that at this point. I don't think I would recommend that. Better to wait for January when normal volume returns. And maybe that ominous thought applies to all three of these guys.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    (GWGMF)

     

    I was thinking that the special meeting scheduled and subsequently canceled a while back was to vote on a buyout offer. Think about it, it was canceled and immediately proceeded with offering in order to raise cash. Did they wait until the last minute with the Placemen and let cash run low, thinking it was only a Plan B with Plan A being a buy-out and thus no need to raise cash?

     

    I think this companies best option now is to be bought out. I wouldn't think it would for anything above $2 and more likely in the mid $1's. I also am thinking more and more this is the reason for these extraordinary delays on so many fronts.

     

    Any thoughts?
    29 Dec 2011, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Uh mid $1's? As in a 500% premium to the current share price in a risk off market for a company losing money and direction for over 21 years? Matt, are you wwwaters from SH?
    29 Dec 2011, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    IF I was wwwaaters, I think he has mentioned $32/share. My mid $1 figure was best case scenario (2nd furnance up and running) and if the company was moving along and not pan handling in order to pay the bills. Just from my experience with management I don't think they would be open to anything near the current share price, and I do believe there is value in the assets.

     

    I believe the are largely responsible for where their share price is today but you must concede the current market has a lot to do with it as well. I really dont' think it is that crzy and please don't call me wwwaters! :)
    29 Dec 2011, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I agree with you about the current market holding down prices for all of the stocks. But that is the same reason why no one could get a buyout with a big premium right now. If the company was moving along I could see a much better price for GW as well. But that is also an "if" right now. It's like me saying "if Lynas had the preoperation license...". Both things can happen soon but neither has and the valuation after these things is pretty speculative atm.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    My thinking was if you see value in the company, paying a premium to current stock price would be a lot better than paying a premium to what the stock price may be in the future, particularly if you have competent management take over the company the timeline to production could be one of the shortest.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Matt,

     

    If they don't close *some* kind of deal in the very near future, I don't see that the management will have any choice but to accept offers. They clearly don't have enough cash to operate very long and unless the market changes significantly, I don't think their prospects are very bright for raising funds through dilution. I mean, if your shares are presently trading at $.386, at what point does an offering become interesting, $.3 or .$25? If you're going to sell them for that, w/o really crunching all of the numbers, I would think that it would make just as much sense to take the BO offer @ $1.10.

     

    What do I know. I guess that's why I'm neither accountant or investment banker! ;-)
    29 Dec 2011, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I am going to have to agree with eggwis... if GW does not close the GQD or a JV off take deal in the 1st Q of 2012 that would be pretty darn bad. They would have to get more money somewhere and I doubt it would be pretty.
    29 Dec 2011, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Agree with all comments above. I think this company just can't execute but have valuable assets for somebody that can. I have been concerned with cash again already for sometime and the longer they wait a vulture will know they have them over a barrell. I would be in favor of a sale sooner than later.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    30 Dec 2011, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Has Great Western ever previously released PR stating Jim would giving an interview?
    29 Dec 2011, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    not that I can recall
    29 Dec 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Matt, upon thinking of it, recall the last time Jim appeared on BNN (maybe not the last time) and we were waiting on news from them and they were late-ish and he said on the air that the news was "days not weeks" away and he was correct. So if he says something like that, I would tend to believe him. I am sorry to be so vague about the details but I do recall the interview and remember being struck by the "days not weeks" comment.
    29 Dec 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Is this a new pr strategy to get something out in the news or as someone speculated on SH that this interview would be preceded by a news release announcing something major. Not likely but sure would make for an impressive PR move.

     

    Otherwise if he is speaking with nothing big, this is yet another indication to me things are far off. Their justification in the pas weeks as to why they were not holding a call was due to the legalities of speaking with meaningful news forthcoming.

     

    Best,
    matt
    29 Dec 2011, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well,
    GW is holding up fine, but I didn't hear any news. Nothing bad I guess, did the faithful hear good news?
    29 Dec 2011, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    I heard no news either. Waste of time except for folks that haven't been following - maybe face time will help the company pps.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Dec 2011, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10612) | Send Message
     
    Wishing all of the REE folks a happy, healthy and prosperous new year. Good luck and profits to all. I'm thinking about parking 30% of the proceeds from the Visa (V) sale in (MCP-PA). Thoughts?
    29 Dec 2011, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Don't!
    29 Dec 2011, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think I would hold off for the moment. Not because of MCP-PA per se, but more just because its hard to say what toorrow and/or the new year may bring in the market and while there is a possibility that anything you purchase now MAY increase in value in the immediate future, it far more likely, IMO, that it would decrease significantly. I say that almost without regard to what the underlying security may be.
    29 Dec 2011, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I really need to replace this keyboard! Damned "M" is forever sleeping on the job!
    29 Dec 2011, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1615) | Send Message
     
    Robert, I'll offer a slightly different opinion. For clients who bought recently, or for whom I averaged down to 62 or less, I'm quite comfortable holding for the next 6-9 months of thrills (all the while getting 9% for my patience and to pay for the Rolaids.) For those for whom I paid more, I sold some in the 60s but immediately wrote the Jan 2014 Moly 25s for a $10 premium. If I'm wrong and Moly goes to 14.99 or less, I own a company I believe will gain most-favored-sector status as the US builds a domestic strategic reserve. If I'm right, and the stock rallies above 25.01 by Jan 2014, my clients and I get $1000 at expiration for every contract written. (If the stock rallies to, say, $35, depending on the time value remaining in 2012 or '13, I'll cover for what I imagine will be good but not overly-greedy profit.)
    30 Dec 2011, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Joseph,
    This was insightful money management advice as always. I continue to hold off on Moly till I feel the flyovers and pictures better support the "On time on budget" claim. But if I felt that way, I would agree with your approach.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Did China reduce? Did they increase? Why do we care? I mean when we look at H2 2011 they tinkered with the production during most of the quota period. I'm not sure what the quota will bring in H1 2012. But I am sure China will do whatever they want with the quota and production so why does it matter? I think this is just a distraction.

     

    What we know is China will support prices and remain an unreliable supply for the rest of the world in the future. I say focus on the stock stories. I think, like all mining, production is the first concern. This is even more true when no one has modern production yet.
    29 Dec 2011, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I have only one thing left to say on the subject of GWM at this point and that is that it seems that Chi's *good friend* "Never Right Dwight" has done his name proud. Per NRD, wasn't the GWM JV deal supposed to closed THIS YEAR, as in prior to 2012? If that pans out at this point, it'll be damned amazing!
    29 Dec 2011, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi Chi and Matt, my take on a GWM buyout is as follows...

     

    I think Chi's numbers are closer to the actual buyout value of GWM... Generally a buyout number begins with a book value or basically the shareholders equity value, which takes the value of all of the assets minus all of the liabilities.

     

    In the case of GWM this is ~$65m divided by ~390m shares. This works out to a book of ~$.17/share. This number includes all assets including the mineral properties, LCM and other tangible and intangibles.

     

    While this number may seem small with an asset like LCM remember that LCM had gross revenues of $18m and a generous net profit of $4m. This works out to be a net profit of ~ $.01 share. So, according to the numbers, LCM is little in terms of PP&A (plant, property and equipment), revenues and profit. (Note PP&E is original asset cost minus depreciation)...

     

    Of course, book takes into consideration all tangible assets and this is where the $.17 per share book number is derived (from the mineral property or rights assessment, down to the furniture)... As I noted previously, the $2.5m goodwill number is troublesome and represents ~4% of Total Assets...

     

    Also, the longer GWM goes without a JV or TOA the lower the current assets will go (not including the $4m/annum LCM profit)... Depending on the current cash burn the bottom may be reached quickly and if no buyer is found a reorganization may be in order which could have potential bad results for the shareholder…

     

    Note that the book value is totally independent from the share price, it is a valuation of the asset as it stands on the ground...

     

    That said, it is possible for some solution to these problems may come forth and the significant cash infusion virtually everyone admits needs to occur, just may happen...

     

    However, if I were looking to acquire GWM in a JV or some other agreement, I would be hard pressed to make any investment that would result in more than the $.17 per share book value currently indicated by the latest GWM balance sheet...

     

    Anyway, all of my calculations are from the latest 10q linked below... JMHO...

     

    http://bit.ly/sMYi0f
    29 Dec 2011, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Toly,

     

    Seems like thorough analysis and I am a newbie to mining investments. With that said, I know each industry has their own "variations" to the standard book value assessment. I do think the value of the mine and the storage license would add signficant value that would not necessarily show up in a book-value analysis but would be an obvious factor to any banker working on the deal.

     

    Also, don't think the second furnance, which if I am not mistaken is producing higher value products, has not been factored in.
    Best,
    Matt
    30 Dec 2011, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi Dallas, you are correct in that the book value of a company is simply the value of it's assets without considering intangible factors. Book is the liquidating value of a company if all of the assets are sold and the remaining cash is distributed to the investors.

     

    My point is that it appears that operating cash (and capital project development) is hindered by what is shown on the last 10q and without a cash infusion the book could possibly come into play.

     

    With respect to LCM, it is a very small part of GWM and even at full production, currently puts REVENUES at $18m and net profit at (a generous) $4m. Even with doubling this number accounting for the new furnace would give $8m in net profit. I think this would be a pie in the sky number but even so it is insignificant when looking at developing a new concentration plant (not to mention a separation facility).

     

    Also I would really like to hear more from the design outfit (DRA) that is supposedly developing a comprehensive design for Steen...

     

    July 27, 2011… (GWM) is pleased to announce that it has contracted DRA Mineral Projects (Pty) Ltd. (“DRA”) of South Africa… for the detailed design of the Steenkampskraal processing plant.

     

    The processing plant… (will) be located at the Steenkampskraal mine site. The plant detailed design project is expected to be completed by December 2011.

     

    It would appear that this is another missed date and without such a plan it will be difficult going forward with Steen...
    30 Dec 2011, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As has been discussed prior to this, things like plant design fall downstream of things like joint ventures with partners who own proprietory knowledge. No joint venture, no plant design - and no plant design, no plant.

     

    As we saw yesterday, no updates either until the jv moves.

     

    Status:

     

    GWM: Delayed for jv.

     

    Lynas: Delayed for permitting and construction.

     

    MCP: Delayed for construction.

     

    Hey, did anyone bring a deck of cards?
    30 Dec 2011, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Good points as always Toly.
    But it gets into the other GW black hole- The cost to build their facilities at Steen. Steen will process in a nearby town and road and rail access is good by rare earth mining standards. But Steen is an underground vein deposit. This is very expensive mining. Yes, the ore grade is high, but it all has to be brought up that thin shaft on carts in the pictures on the web site (not in pits from bull dozers). And yes they have a license to store the thorium in the mine, but there is still extraction, transporting, storing, and decommissioning costs associated with this highest Thorium rare earth mine.

     

    In spite of these issues GW has always claimed they can build a separation facility for a fraction of any other rare earth mine on any scale. Is that because the Chinese are superhuman or it because that makes the project feasible?

     

    Many of us have questioned Moly for not explaining their very low claims on cost of production, should some of the same questions apply to GW's cap ex that they can't seem to afford on any level?

     

    For a while GW said they would lose money on Steen but make the money back on downstream activities. At the current rare earth prices, are we back to that view?

     

    I respect the GW shareholders taking a stronger stance on management. It's a hard topic for every shareholder and it applies to every miner. But GW seems to take private investor questions on calls from what I have heard in the past. I think these questions need to be put to management, and not in emails. One of the reason Never Right Dwight has that nickname is because I think some of the emails and blog posts claiming to be him or hearsay from him deserve greater scrutiny. I would not be surprised if Dwight would say "What's Stockhouse?" if he was ever asked about the place.
    30 Dec 2011, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    If Engdahl said anything newsworthy, his comment that the LCM is very profitable, but the group (the stock as a whole) may not be profitable till Steen is producing. The statement was vague and I would not read much into it. But I think many would have liked to hear that the LCM furnaces would boost the bottom line more than that statement suggests.
    29 Dec 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    My crew were up 330% at one point but are back down to about 20% profit.

     

    We hold 2 million plus shares and need encouragement from management.

     

    The story has been enticing and the action exhilarating but we need something to hang our hopes on.
    29 Dec 2011, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    your crew?
    29 Dec 2011, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone know what GWM's current "basket price" is?
    30 Dec 2011, 01:26 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (783) | Send Message
     
    aqwert
    Investment club.
    30 Dec 2011, 03:54 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    interesting trading on (GWMGF) today. Volume better. Nice. For a change.

     

    Happy New Year's people! 2012 ready or not!
    ps. Please drink responsibly and for pete's sake -- no driving! :)
    30 Dec 2011, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13586) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Market is closed for 2011...

     

    Happy New Year, y'all!
    30 Dec 2011, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Happy New Year TB!
    Happy New Year all!
    30 Dec 2011, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF) held the 1.04 level today. Break that and the 1.00 better hold or it may retest the 10/4 candle with the low of .83. Trying to tell you LAMP approval not imminent?

     

    (MCP) broke all kinds of support of late and maybe it is done with the sell off...or not. Could be some support in the 20-21 range.

     

    (GWMGF) ..seems to have some support at the .39 to .40 range. Better hold here or it is going to .30.

     

    (HREEF) looks decent. (NEMFF) over 7.70 looks good. (TAS) could be good with a stop under the low the other day of 1.35. (MHREF) looks like it could be ready to go as well ...(actually the best besides HREFF) and over .37 -.40 would be testing the 200day around .42 ish.

     

    Certainly not all doom and gloom. :)
    30 Dec 2011, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert asked: "Trying to tell you LAMP approval not imminent?"
    Well, TA or not, LAMP approval looks good.
    http://bit.ly/u8jrxh

     

    GWMGF traded through .39 half of last week but never closed below. Revisited Engdahl on BNN video. I don't like the use of "potential JV partner GQD" and the absence of a furnace update. GWTI comment was positive IMO. Metal prices may tell the next direction short term.
    http://bit.ly/rHAR8P

     

    Doing work on Moly for the photo/drawing Insta update. Guys, please evaluate the photos at the Moly web site and decide for yourself. But my first prediction in 2012 is Phoenix will not commission this year. I think the delays are very obvious and the "acceleration" funding by the board is a red flag about the Phoenix budget as well. You can't accelerate an industrial construction project timeline with only a few months left where you are still pouring foundations. The delay looks large IMO.
    http://bit.ly/vKm6n6
    1 Jan 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2209) | Send Message
     
    Phoenix looks and sounds complicated. It will take a good number of months to complete the project.
    Potassium bromide will apparently be used as a bleaching agent for the bastnasite processing. See page 4 of 54.
    http://1.usa.gov/tLJN5I
    Further details about that might be obtained by using the search term "bastnasite processing".
    1 Jan 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Nice research VB. I updated my Moly Insta with Phoenix photos and drawings:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    1 Jan 2012, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18425) | Send Message
     
    Happy and prosperous New Year to everyone!

     

    Have safe festive weekend (sanity is optional though)!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Dec 2011, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Best wishes to all of you for a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!
    30 Dec 2011, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton's view of the REE market dynamics both present and future, published December 3. It has been around a while. TB posted a link to Lifton's Dec. 5 article at the top of the Dec. 9 Concentrator. I went back and skimmed through the Nov. 30 Concentrator, but I didn't see any mention of this article. My apologies if it was posted previously. I was largely absent earlier in the month and may have missed it.

     

    I found the article interesting; a good read. Perhaps most interesting was the part where Jack downplays the significance of the RE market and talks about how blown out of proportion the whole sector has been. As well, comments by Mike Holt, who does a very nice job of pointing out Mr. Lifton's change of tone over the past couple of years.

     

    http://bit.ly/vJJSVS
    31 Dec 2011, 12:51 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I found uncommon wisdom in this comment posted by Fran on 12/6/11 in comments to Jack Lifton's Dec. 5 article.

     

    "heed the miner mining the market; focus your attention on the miner minding his mine. look also at track records; successful miners be like successful race horses- they’ve won before."

     

    Thanks Fran.

     

    http://bit.ly/sNH3pU
    31 Dec 2011, 12:57 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Hi Everyone- Some progress from Malaysia...(http://bit.ly/vlTYVS). Lynas' applications will be on display and comments accepted until the 17th. This is good news and good progress.
    1 Jan 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Yes, this looks great Freo. I think Lynas took a big step here. Public display appears to be the pre-operation license approval procedure after the documents are given the green light. Concentrate should arrive in February.
    1 Jan 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (697) | Send Message
     
    Lets all hope that 2012 is a good year for the rare earth sector, and especially for Lynas holders. It seems waiting is a big theme in the rare earths.
    1 Jan 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Chi: You say "appears" above. Do you know that to be the case or are your speculating?

     

    Also, I assume from this there will be no announcement of POL prior to the 17th...barring any leaks.

     

    Will be interesting to see how markets rate this bit of news come Tuesday...that will tell alot IMO.
    1 Jan 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Rain- In a previous statement by AELB, they said the applications would be reviewed by the appropriate authorities. Once that process was complete and the application accepted, the document would be put on display for public comment. It's still a bit unclear (to me at least) what further steps must be taken for the issuance of the POL, but it does mean the applications have passed muster from a technical standpoint.

     

    I know I have been ranting about this, but I would like to see an explanation from the coy explaining the process and where we are in the process.

     

    Adding further confusion to the whole thing, I have two links with direct quotes from the AELB spokesperson. One (http://bit.ly/vaHHbg) says “People who want to comment on the document have to submit a form provided at the locations before noon on January 20,” she said in a statement.
    The other (http://bit.ly/vlTYVS) says: “Those who want to comment on the document have to submit a form available at the locations by noon on January17,” she in a statement.
    So it would "appear" that the deadline for comments would be sometime between the noon on 17th and noon on the 20th!
    1 Jan 2012, 07:57 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Freo,
    I believe the public display means the POL portion of the review is finishing and the probationary Pre-op period (first operation will start soon). The key here is the public display is procedural. Advancing to this procedure is progress and the display is not a new hurdle based on protest or doubt.
    Also the public display does not appear to subject the ALEB work or LAMP approval to a court of public opinion either. The AELB language suggests the public input is designed to aide evaluation during the Pre-op period.

     

    ALEB earlier (10-20-2011): As practiced in many other States, once approved the public will be shared the documents by the applicant for comments.

     

    If and when a Pre-Operational License is issued, taking into account credible public comments, if any, AELB will use the conditional and controlled pre-operational stage to further collect and verify the plant's operational safety data that almost everyone has been asking for i.e. how much and what is the radioactive content of the residue, what is heavy metal content in each residue component, what if mass input does not balance with the mass output, can the plant be safely operated, should the plant be corrected before further trial runs, etc.
    1 Jan 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Freo,
    I'm not going to stress about this at all. As Chi says, it is progress. We're moving on to the next step in their process. As for the issue of "Public Comments": #1 - everything I have seen recently about the LAMP has been pretty positive stuff. #2 - What more could the Anti-Lamp crowd possibly have to say that hasn't been heard already and/or has any substance? Surely they wee throwing their stickiest mud early on trying to get things halted. I can't believe that they saved their best for last. #3 - I don't now how things go "down under" or in Malaysia, but in my part of the world is a formality that the bureaucrats use just so that they can say "we listened to you." Rarely does anything come forth that is of enough significance that it has any significant effect on what has already been set rolling. JMHO.
    1 Jan 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    I read it as disclosure to the public and AELB will listen and apply valid concerns to the temporary/probationary period that is the pre-license phase. But I do not see this like a town hall or an invitation to public debate. Public comments are bound to a form and no promise to meet or discuss concerns raised is set in the procedures. That procedure gives little room for feedback or debate. If someone said something AELB did not realize and it was a big deal to them, that's about the only way I can imagine this effecting the approval timeline. And that seems very unlikely.

     

    This is like our Supreme Court's (certiorari) approach where AELB can hear and act on a concern, but they have no obligation to do so. They choose what to hear and decide what to say on those matters.

     

    But the other issue is this is procedural. Some are saying it means the pre-op is delayed. I disagree. Since this step was known as part of procedures, I cannot see it having a negative effect on the stock like a delay. Big firms have surely consulted Malaysian law if not Malaysian counsel on AELB procedures. I think they will realize this is progress in the licensing process. I personally see it as the completion of the major government hurdle to operation. I think Lynas will comment (most likely with an announcement) before trade tomorrow night. But in any case I think the progress will give Lynas a bid when trading starts.
    2 Jan 2012, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I agree Chi. That's what I was saying is that by "listening" to the public comments, they are not required to take any action, and in fact, it would be a rare case if they did.
    2 Jan 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    It also should be noted the pre-operational license is temporary and conditional by it's nature. It is also the only license possible at LAMP start up. It is part of a progressive licensing process by AELB to ensure compliance throughout the full licensing process

     

    AELB 10-20-2011 Comment: AELB will use the conditional and controlled pre-operational stage to further collect and verify the plant's operational safety data .......

     

    AELB has always stated that if national and international requirements are met at each and every stage of the multi- licensing process, Lynas will be allowed to operate. Failure or non-compliance would either mean non-issuance of license or suspension of operation and license. All regulatory decisions are based on legal technical considerations and provisions derived from best practices, international standards and national requirements or regulations.
    http://bit.ly/sWIOXt
    2 Jan 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2335) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    Thanks for adding clarity to the "temporary" label in the first round of the licensing process. Do you know if there is any general precedent/guidance for how long the "temporary" stage may last before the permanent license can be applied for/issued? Or is it the case that Lynas would continue applying for renewed "temporary" licenses -- to allow regulators to keep a strong safety compliance incentive in place over time?

     

    Really appreciate everyone's informed contributions on this thread -- it has helped me keep a long-term perspective on my underwater Lynas shares.
    2 Jan 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (970) | Send Message
     
    Yes, the informed contributions here have been vital in keeping track of this sector. i dumped my underwater Lynas last month and will likely add to my current holdings after several weeks.

     

    Hoping everyone here has a prosperous 2012.
    2 Jan 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    Happy New Year! I read this answer somewhere. I know there is a fixed period of time in the procedures but I do not have that time frame on me. I recall it being like two years or so. But that is from top of my head memory. I'll have to get back to you when I find the quote or link.
    What I do remember is the pre-operational review beyond information gathering is much like the regular license. AELB draws a distinction, but so long as the plant runs smoothly the license will remain. And in the chemical processing industry, that "must run smooth and safe" is the norm at all stages.
    2 Jan 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2335) | Send Message
     
    Thanks very much, Chi, and best to you also for the New Year.
    mj
    2 Jan 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    Good comments ladies and gents. Much appreciated. A few things...

     

    One, Chi, you mention that some have seen this as meaning POL is delayed. I agree that that doesn't really add up. This doesn't at all seem to be a re-ignition of public debate, but more likely your suggestion of progress as laid out by earlier AELB comments (Thanks for that reply Freo btw).

     

    I still must pause and sctratch head each time we look at this due to the wording which has always been used of "approval" regarding document acceptance. It gives the impression that is linked to or is approval of the POL and, if I am correct and still understanding, these are related only by the fact that one must precede the other. They approve (accept) the submission, post for public comments etc, and then approve/disapprove POL.

     

    If this is true, then we have approval (acceptance), posting, and decision made some time after Jan 17th/Jan 20th. I agree with above comments that this seems to be the most accurate view of what has taken place and where we're at.

     

    We still don't really know...obviously and must speculate to some degree (unfortunately). Hopefully share price action will tell us a bit and, if we're lucky, maybe get some comments out of someone on either/both sides to clarify. I'm not holding my breath based on history of this! ;)
    2 Jan 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Regarding the Share Price:
    Still waiting for Bloomberg, Reuters, Associated Press or the Aussie papers to pick up on the public display AELB news. Starting to think there is a hedge fund game at work with those press groups. Moly's unknown HREE deposit was NYT news but this is nothing? Under ocean REE's were news, but not the biggest REE processing plant progressing towards production? Toyota nonsense about substitutes 20 years away from marketing is news, but Lynas being done with the public issues for LAMP in 20 days is not? Seriously. As the clock ticks, the media's credibility continues to drain away.

     

    Honestly, I don't really think much of these rag sheets, but they do create demand in the stock with their dribble. It should be about the story. But even if it isn't, the scoop alone should be pushing the true journos.

     

    Lynas should give a comment in an announcement before trade if these guys don't run the story. This is clear progression in the Lynas approval process and it is the biggest news in rare earths in a while no matter how anyone looks at it. I'd like a Lynas comment before I say much, but what's holding back the press?
    2 Jan 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Looks like Chi makes the front page of Rare Metal Blog.... shall we refer to you from now on as Mr. X? ;) Maybe your letter will spur some activity in the press......

     

    http://bit.ly/siDosR
    2 Jan 2012, 03:34 PM Reply