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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history buff. Serious investor, I... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, January 31, 2012 172 comments
    Jan 31, 2012 7:21 AM

    A comparison of some of our favorites over the past 3 months. NOT a good 3 month period for any of them, of course, but note the recent effort by Lynas to claw back to even with where she was 3 months back. I attribute this entirely to the recent hope of a quick AELB resolution to the long-standing permit issue.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCPK:LYSCF, OTCPK:LYSDY, OTCPK:ARAFF, OTC:GDLNF, OTCQB:IAALF, MCP, QREDF.PK, UAMY, OTCQX:UURAF, OTCPK:SRSR.

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Comments (172)
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  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Let me try to bring the topics over to this concentrator with some humor. My wife thinks four misses and 13 hits on a vein is a normal blood draw at the doctor with her veins and her luck. Not sure that helps but it's about as much information as GW gave us. And it's alot better than the wwwater's theory that meters drilled equals resource expansion. I wish that were true. I've own explorers that did a lot of drilling and not a lot of expanding. :-) I will say the meters drilled for 17 holes seems fine to me. Nothing informative though like the rest of the release.

     

    And AELB has said nothing to annoy me for 48 hours (which might be a record). Trouble is AELB has basically said nothing. I spent seven months telling these guys to "shut up and mind there own business". And now when they finally do that, it drives me nuts.

     

    You're right Chinese, the "interesting times thing" is a mixed bag I guess. :-)
    31 Jan 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF - Completes first pour with new furnace at LCM. I think this is some of the better news out of Great Western in sometime.

     

    Best,
    Matt

     

    ++++++

     

    http://bit.ly/wgYAf9
    31 Jan 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    wiow. They put in an oven and it is working. Never Right Dwight strikes again. :)
    31 Jan 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, even a blind hog finds a furnace, er, acorn once in a while.
    31 Jan 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Clearly the best announcement and the best news we have seen from GW. It's a good result and an important one IMO. It will be interesting to compare the soon to release quarter with the next report after that. I think this part is the key to the GW business even though Steen seems to get more attention. But for LT holders one has to believe GW works if LCM grows into a success. I know they want the feedstock from Steen, but manufacturing is their strength and is the reliable side of their business. Clear good result.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    That seals it buddy. I win bragging rights! I have to say though, that it is pretty anti-climatic.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:21 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi, I think you got it right. As equity holders will eagerly await revenue and profits based on feed from steen, the next quarter will actually provide the potential for growth in both revenues and margin and will be the first time there may be some anticipation heading into "earnings season", if for nothing else than provide a glimpse of what the future holds, good or bad.

     

    With increasing revenues and margins LCM will hopefully seize on the opportunity to be in innovator in this area. I would assume once the testing is finished on the furnance and if all goes well a PR regarding the order of additional furnaces will follow. A few weeks ago Dwight responded that the financing of furnances was a non issue as they are revenue producing assets, so I think they may go for more than one in the next order.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    1 Feb 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    You win egg.
    GW is better at manufacturing than I have given them credit for no doubt. You always were a gentleman and are twice the gentleman now. I enjoyed the loss egg. That's how it should be.:-)
    1 Feb 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Now is when we discover if that additional feedstock they stockpiled (and used lots of cash to buy last quarter) gets transformed into profits.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    And to add to your comment, if they are valued enough by their "partners" to finally be able to negotiate off-takes and/or financing agreements that would complete the necessary steps at Steen.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    You're a gracious man Chi! A true gentleman. You are among a dying breed. Next time I'll fight for my rights and make the flight to have dinner with you.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    It damned sure better TB. That's my impatient position on that. They've been getting the benefit of the doubt for far too long. It's high time for the "money to meet the mattress".
    1 Feb 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    Just a couple of comments, first of all the simple truth is that Lynas has become an institution in Malaysia, any investment of over $500m has critical mass in itself. To suggest that any operating permit will be denied goes against the rules of capitalism, there is just too much money for this situation to not work out. The true reason for the delays are engineering and construction problems that occur with any project this size.

     

    That said, the past month has been pretty flat for Lynas in terms of trading, the political sideshow SEEMS to threaten the completion and operation of LAMP but the facts are that it is a safe and well engineered facility. This has been known for a long time and the uninformed protest group is just passing the time.

     

    What is really concerning is that the lack of Rare Earths on the market are creating demand destruction in the marketplace. It's simple. Without any rare earths available on the market at a reasonable price, the end users have reason to develop uses for an end product. Instead of the infighting and competition within the industry, we should all be pulling for the Rare Earth Industry as a whole. Instead of a bigger piece of the pie, let's make the pie itself bigger...
    31 Jan 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I think the political sideshow is in the last act of the Kabuki theater. Like all politics I am left feeling "what was the point?". But the key is I see the NY Times, Fuzzy and others taking their partly shots. Lynas looks good to me and longs are not scared by the comments.

     

    As for growing the pie I'm all for it. But its up to the companies. No one is stopping these guys from developing their mines. The companies themselves are not holding each other back.. I think most problems are a failure to execute so far. I don't feel shareholders and armchair CEO's should bite their tongues and just pump. I state bullish and bearish comments with equal freedom.

     

    As for demand destruction I think there is very little. I think the demand is held back. But the only substitutes that will prevail are those that outperform rare earth options and those choices belong in any supply picture. I do see a shift to emphasizing HREE's even before Lynas and Moly are producing. Moly's HREE plan seems to be pushed by customers. And I would say Lynas' last call put Duncan forward and put Malawi in the background for this same reason. Something to watch.
    31 Jan 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    Although, Japan's new agreement with China isn't demand destruction per se, would you agree that in an indirect way, it is; at least as it relates to ex-China producers?
    1 Feb 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I would say it's a shoestring, chewing gum band-aide. If the ROW mines get going it dies quick for all purposes and intent.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Very interesting. I had not considered that. I guess it seemed to me not to be the type of relationship that would be short term. Although I was incredibly surprised just due to the nature of the of the two countries and REEs. I can see how both could benefit though, even if it were only short term. Interesting perspective. Thanks.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    "Raja Dato Abdul Aziz bin Raja Adnan, the director general of the Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board, said by telephone Monday evening that the board had discussed at a closed-door meeting earlier in the day whether to grant an initial operating license of up to two years for the refinery, which is a series of more than a dozen sprawling buildings connected by a labyrinth of pipes. He declined to say what the board had decided, but added that an announcement would be made “sooner rather than later.”

     

    http://bit.ly/wmO0ma
    31 Jan 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Hi Jimp-
    I think it is noteworthy that this quote, and article, come from the NYT (http://nyti.ms/w1aFhk), written by the same guy who wrote such a scathing story back in June (http://nyti.ms/waVL3r).
    For what it's worth, NC said in the call yesterday that the delays or construction cost over runs were due to piping/wiring/engineering issues but that none of the containment tanks had to be re-done.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:45 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Jimp,

     

    I didn't find that article very soothing. In particular, I didn't like this piece about completion being pushed out to Q2:

     

    "Lynas announced last Tuesday that a heavy monsoon and some engineering work had delayed completion of the refinery again, and that it would be ready in the second quarter of this year. It was originally scheduled to begin production last September."

     

    Someone please tell me that they're referring to Phase 2?

     

    I didn't like the bit about the issues with the mixing tanks particularly well either.
    1 Feb 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Egg,
    I think this news has been expected and doesn't represent substantial change from the understood (and priced-in) schedule. If you did the math, based on earlier announcements and known time lines, it was obvious they were going to struggle to be producing by q1 end. The question of coarse is: when EXACTLY they will be producing and when will they start receiving money for their product. My best guess is 4-6 weeks to complete LAMP, get TOL, ship and receive concentrate, then another 6 - 8 weeks to get the concentrate through the system, plus some time for qualifying, packaging, etc, so maybe 4 months from now before money starts to trickle in.
    1 Feb 2012, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » June for production startup for Phase 1, though they might do some testing before that. It will be deep into 2012 before they hit their stride. Lynas has stated several times they need 6 weeks AFTER getting the TOL and finishing Phase 1 construction to begin production.Even if the TOL drags on into March, it looks like it ends up being a problem which was internal to the cycle time of the construction delays.

     

    Further money from the new funding (after the initial $50m they already have) is conditional on things happening like the TOL, of course.

     

    Phase 2 Construction is running parrallel with this situation. Note that Lynas just awarded a Phase 2 lump sum contract for $36m (working from memory here, so check these facts) at Mount Weld.

     

    Cash burn is very high, up about $60million over last quarter, and projected to be over $200million next quarter. The pdf's for this quarter are posted on the last Concentrator.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I disagree with this TB. First feed Q2 and production June-July is my guess. Cash burn is great for start-up and financing is done. The stock is the cheapest it will ever be. I am chasing here. No worries. That's how production hill works. This is absolutely the worst time in the world to be cautious in my mind. Buy with leverage clear to $2 is my plan. Best buying opportunity in any stock that I will see in 2012 no doubt.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Obviously you are on board at June-July now, though? So I might be right about that, though wrong predicting another AELB delay. Oh well, can't win 'em all, and if I have to lose one, I like to lose on a stock where I am grossly overweight anyway!

     

    My comment about cash burn was for information purposes, not a critique. I had not seen anyone else mention it recently. As always, it is WHAT is purchased with the cash, not the simple act of spending, which is the issue. We can all hope this ends soon after they start production and get some cash rolling in.

     

    In case anyone missed it, there is a zinger in the AELB news this morning, ie, Lynas has to post $50million. I wonder if that was included in the $200m+ burn estimate for this quarter?

     

    Share price shot straight up with the announcement today, so those looking for a last cheap disappointment before the TOL are out of luck. I'm wondering if the $1.89 estimate I linked to yesterday will hold?

     

    I'm not certain this ($1.65 current) share price is the cheapest... Some volatility over the next few hours or days would be normal, and this initial reaction might overshoot a mite. Still, I would think something near these prices might be a good buy, and I might be lurking there for some trading blocs. If it extends into the $1.70's, I would lunk in the $1.60's anyway... Emphasis on the "I" however, for I am way overweight already and would be buying trading shares to sell somewhere north of $2, not add to my core holding (which is going nowhere at just $2 or 3).

     

    Congrats Chi and all Lynas longs!
    1 Feb 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, do you have a feel for the time needed to fill the chem tanks and start the initial "brew" for processing? I really have not seen an estimate for this (perhaps that is what the new LAMP manager means when he talks about 6 weeks). I know it takes time to setup the chemistry, and time for the ore to process, though it becomes "continuous" eventually, with end product coming through on a predictable cycle.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Freo,

     

    I've done the math, and we've tossed it around here quite sufficiently I think. Nothing-the-less, it's all speculation and throwing darts. Some are thrown with a more guiding hand than others, but still darts. Either I missed announcements indicating significant construction delays or just forgot about them. I try to find balance between realism and optimism, and because NC was so insistent and confident in his "1st feed in Q1" predictions, I had high hopes that it would come to fruition. When the slip comes from Q1 to Q2, the optimistic mind sees a slide of a few weeks to a month, not a three month setback. So,it's not a complete surprise to me by any means, just more significant than I had hoped for. In my mind, beginning last fall I suppose, the TOL would be the cornerstone. Once that was received, it should be all down hill.

     

    Just comes down to a proper setting of expectations. When expectations are not met, there is disappointment. On going disappointment and failure to achieve expectations breeds frustration. Persistent frustration gives birth to anger. It's just the cycle. I didn't have my expectations set properly. That blame lies on my shoulders.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    I think you're correct. The time for the champagne is near. With regard to cheaper shares though, I have been tossing around the idea that the market is due for a bit of a pullback. I would think that, if it happens, it would be fairly significant, though likely short-lived. I've been playing my hand cautiously just in case and hoping that it may present another relative buying opportunity.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Chi: With you brother. I have added this morning. Can't say for certain, but always had gut feeling that if TOL came we would see a quick reversion to the old technicals this time last year which were (bottoms around 1.7x and channels between 1.8x-2.1x with spikes on news)...though those will get heavier and produce new and lasting bases IMO. At TB stated, we may see a bit of volatility the next day or so, but prices look cheap here to me.
    1 Feb 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    TB-

     

    Not sure if you got your answer but NC has said in the last 2 calls that they need 45-60 days from delivery of concentrate to output of the first batch. In the latest call he said to allow 60 days.
    1 Feb 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Just got back into town after a business trip. I remain confident Lynas will continue to go higher for a while. It takes a fair amount of trade for a $3 billion dollar start-up to become a $4 or $5 billion dollar company. But based on the 12 month forward PE the stock is very cheap on valuation. I got some good buying in on the road tonight. For now, I'll continue buying from here to May as the price drifts up. After that I will see how the costs, REE prices, and production plan are shaping up to determine when to drop leverage.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2714) | Send Message
     
    Chi, TB, Freo, et al.
    I want to send a special thanks to all of you for keeping us so well informed on the ups and downs of the Lynas/Malaysia saga. It really helped in my assessment to keep adding LYSCF blocs and to keep holding underwater shares which are now a bright green. Really appreciate your depth of knowledge and time generosity in adding comments to this Concentrator.
    mj
    2 Feb 2012, 07:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, I think Chi was traveling and out of pocket. But I agree, that is what I have heard in the past as well.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Mercy,
    We enjoy having you here. Glad you are green. There is much more to come and it will happen in the next few months.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Rain,
    Pullbacks should be shallow and weeks will be green if my view is right. The toughest part is over. The next few months in Lynas should be the reason we put up with the last few months of nonsense. Enjoy!
    2 Feb 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/xs2KVg

     

    RBS Morgan is projecting a short term climb to A$1.80 if the news is good.
    31 Jan 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    TOL has been granted...http://bit.ly/wjx5bw limits and requirements....
    1 Feb 2012, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Sorry, pushed the send button too early. The biggest restriction on Lynas seems to be they MUST provide details of the PDF within 10 months or else risk losing the license. Also, they must post $50M as security. I really hope they have a firm plan for the pdf!
    1 Feb 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (715) | Send Message
     
    Yes!
    1 Feb 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    It'll be 1:30 AM in Sydney when our markets open. I'll bet there will be a lot of eyes down there glued to their monitors to see what LSYCF and LYSDY do today.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Up to US$1.73 in Frankfurt right now.

     

    That should be LYSCF above.
    1 Feb 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Sorry if it has been discussed before but what you think of the key contractor issue mentioned in the NYT article ?
    http://bit.ly/wj5qYX
    1 Feb 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    IMO opinion this issue is just being milked for PR value by Lynas opposition at this point. The concern was identified and the previous supplier (AkzoNobel) pulled out several months ago for alleged safety concerns and was replaced by another supplier. Obviously the new supplier didn't share the same concerns. Congrats to NYT for reporting it again now - they are just trying to stir the pot so local people can scream about AELB incompetence by issuing a POL just as this new "news" is coming to light about.

     

    Congrats to Lynasheads. It's been a long ride, and will continue to be so with Damocles' sword over our heads with the upcoming Malaysia political season. Lynas better hope that they have a loyal local workforce or a very robust safety process since it seems that one misstep that becomes public could jeopardize everything.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I cannot speak for Lynas, but I was once a project manager involved with the construction of factories. ANY contractor who started talking like AkzoNobel (assuming we are getting real quotes here, which I have some doubts about) would be slapped with a big lawsuit.

     

    If one also thinks about the ramifications, imagine the reaction from others in the future building factories who get an AkzoNobel bid...

     

    Straight in the round file is where it will go, if this story sticks.

     

    We should not be shocked if we soon hear that Lynas has filed suit against AkzoNobel. If I was the project manager I would be jumping up and down on Nick Curtis' desk now, though I'm sure he would be telling me to "...be patient until we at least have the darn TOL in hand!"
    1 Feb 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Congratulations to Lynasheads! One thought that has me thinking... is it possible that the Malaysians are looking to hang the fault around Lynas' neck? The quote where we can revoke the license any time we damn well please with no notice keeps nagging at me. Do you think this is it? Or are they looking for something (cracked concrete ?(which I even knew about many months ago off a Yahoo board of all things) to blame Lynas thereby taking the blame off themselves?
    they still have the elections coming up and there might be back lash so they (as politicians will do the world over) will throw any thing or any body under the bus to save themselves..
    1 Feb 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I think the $50M bond and 10 mos to finalize the waste disposal plan is just "meat" to toss to the opponents to get past the upcoming election, which is expected to be called before the end of the year. After the election, if the opposition doesn't win, then the pressure of this deadline will be relieved. Of course that assumes that Lynas doesn't screw up in the interim. Can't wait for the expected protests when the first ship of concentrate shows up in the harbor and for every puff of smoke to be viewed as some cancer-laden emission from Fukushima-South :(

     

    What are the odds that the gov't botched their attempt to establish Malaysia as a new high tech destination ?
    1 Feb 2012, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Good morning all and congrats. I have been holding...scared...und... but this is certainly a good day for those of us who have shared this endeavor together and smiles all around I'd say!
    Where is DG these days btw?
    1 Feb 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Yes, CONGRATS! is in order to all Lynasheads! ...and to follow Rain's lead, has anyone heard from OG recently? I've missed her of late.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Added 2 trading blocs in LYSCF and LYSDY...

     

    Very wild day today:

     

    Added AMJ, AXPW, and EEP too.

     

    Took profits in GDLNF, IAALF, QREDF (all shares, price is high imo, looking to re-enter around .18 or less), UAMY and UURAF.
    1 Feb 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    The are business ties between Chile and Molycorp now, a developing story. Perhaps stakes are being raised to go after some heavy rare earths?
    http://bit.ly/zK6hOn
    1 Feb 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Took some profits on UAMY and QRM yesterday. In immediate reflection, these may not have been the wisest trades of my life, but hindsight is always 20/20 and I did pocket some good profits. Time will tell on that.

     

    Bought a couple more blocks of LYSDY this morning @ $1.64, SNDXF @ $1.44 and AXPW @ $.47.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    JPMorgan disses (MCP) deal:

     

    After rare earth mineral producer Molycorp (MCP) announced that it had received an investment of about $390M from Chile's Molymet, Morgan Stanley said Molycorp could use the proceeds to invest in new projects. Specifically, the firm predicted Molycorp will likely use the proceeds to develop magnets and alloys. The deal lowers the risk faced by Molycorp, added Morgan Stanley, which maintains an Overweight rating on the stock. Conversely, JP Morgan didn't think the deal provides Molycorp with any strategic benefits. Furthermore, the firm didn't see any productive way for Molycorp to use the cash in the near term. As a result, the firm believed the deal raises concerns about Molycorp's cash flow and the health of the rare earth mineral market. JP Morgan maintains a Neutral rating on Molycorp. In mid-afternoon trading, Molycorp dropped 97c, or 3.13%, to $30.01.
    1 Feb 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » VB, aqwert: My take on the MolyCorp/Molymet tieup is that it is, indeed, quixotic at first glance...

     

    I suspect we will see some "ah ha" moments in the near future as the details are fleshed out, but for now its hard to fit in the MCP puzzle. The opinions of the 2 market manipulators par excellence don't impress, LOL, given that they could hardly be much more at odds, with one rating MCP "overweight", and the other talking them down.

     

    Anytime I see $390million suddenly plop in the lap of an aggressive aggregator like MCP, particularly coming from a new investor/company that might also be in an aquisitive mood, my urge is to see what (or who) the two might be looking to buy...

     

    $390million is remarkably similar to the market cap of GWMGF....

     

    Figure that it also will handle quite a few home improvements, and it could add up.

     

    Still, its way early, and for now we just know that MCP has more money on the string than they did before.
    1 Feb 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    At first glance when I combine this story with the Moly board spend of $125 million for "acceleration" of a project that looks like 2013 I see this JPM's way. Moly has now added a half a billion dollars in funding. You don't raise that kind of money for a flexible war chest while doing a billion dollar project IMO. More likely they are over budget on Phoenix without having to admit it yet. The next conference call could be very interesting.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This deal is dilutionary, too. If its to be accretive to the company (vs just papering over problems and and waste) we need to see some ideas of what they are buying with that money.

     

    If it is just money to cover cost overruns, its straight dilution, and therefore "bad dilution". Without a handy milestone to perk up the share price (like Lynas' recent AELB experience), its going to push down shares.

     

    If it is buying assets that can produce income, it might recover quickly and ultimately represent a boost.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    It is more of the Moly way IMO.
    -HREE claims without a drill done yet;
    -Foundations only with "on time on budget" claims.;
    -And now two capital raisings done without shareholders having any way to see it coming.

     

    It is clear dilution done in a stealth way with no explanation. And it is big money. If they use the money to address an apparently weakening business model I could see value. But if this is to fund the second phase of big Ce and La production I see trouble.

     

    But the real problem is Moly seems to be painting itself into a corner with promises and pumping that will be very hard to fulfill. This business model is not good right now. The stock is way overvalued right now with a scary conference call coming up from what I see.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    They are going back and forth on this topic over on the Yahoo! Message Board for MCP right now. They don't have much to go on either other than just their gut instincts about the deal.
    Maybe the management wants everyone to pay attention to the next conference call this time.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    (LYC): NC on Bloomberg (http://bloom.bg/w6Dg4P). Suggests the plant will start up early q2 with output by the end of q2...
    1 Feb 2012, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    That's what I thought NC said on the investor call. This thing looks good. This should mean ore ships in late Feb; Last 9% of LAMP finishes in March; First feed in April; Production in June; and earnings throughout Q3. That is a well orchestrated timeline NC. Only a CEO miner who has done this before could set it up that nice.

     

    Meanwhile, Phase 2 finishes in early 2013 and then Duncan replaces Malawi near term to bolster the HREE growth story going forward. This approach also maintains an accelerating revenue growth rate through 2014 at least. Great long term horizon for Lynas IMO.

     

    2 Feb 2012, 12:49 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Now see there, a little optimism can go a long way ... sometimes. ;-) That's more along my lines of thinking and considerably more satisfying!
    2 Feb 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    LYC closed -.25 @ $1.59 last night / today
    2 Feb 2012, 02:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. That would be about $1.70 american dollars.
    2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    Surprising to me that Lynas couldn't get beyond ~US$1.70 here or in Oz. US$1.65 in Frankfurt at the moment

     

    The LAMP got mentioned in today's FT, but not in the WSJ.
    2 Feb 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's actually good news. That means the news wavefront is behind the curve. Had the media jumped on the story yesterday, and our results been "only $1.70" that's one thing, but with the media almost certain to pick up the story soon (probably today)...

     

    We have more potential short term momentum to come.
    2 Feb 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is currently -1,26 % in Frankfurt (after a +18% yesterday) maybe some profit taking today
    2 Feb 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Frankfurt overshot what we saw here and down under. That shift is bringing them more in line with the major bourses that trade Lynas.

     

    I expect us to trade at the open around $1.70.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Nothing goes up or down in a straight line except a half hour of LYC trade in mid-September (Ya, we can laugh about it now, right Freo?:-))

     

    The stock will go up as the analysts start crunching numbers and figure out we could be looking at a twelve month forward PE of 2 without much progress beyond the current plan. Add in stability or improvement in REE prices if the economy heats up and things go still higher. Everyone likes to book a quick gain except me I guess. I'm buying, not selling. I'd rather sell @ $3-$4 with a long tern gain than buy back at a higher price and pay a short term tax. I can view it that way with these lopsided valuation metrics IMO.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Yes, I would expect some profit taking at this point. Lynas was up anywhere from 10-20% in the couple weeks preceding the announcement. Tack another coool 18% to that and it would seem a very reasonable time to expect some profit taking.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Egg,
    Lynas will not see a 15% pullback in H1 2012. Write it down. It will at least double from here in 2012.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I tend to agree. I am seeing some life coming back in almost the entire sector. Right now I am imagining reporters at the primary business media asking questions and seeking clarity about what all this means for all the ex-China rare earth stories. Look at the major news released over just the last few days from Lynas, Moly, GW, and various lesser juniors. This is the sort of environment which can ignite a media feeding frenzy.

     

    Also by coincidence, we can anticipate a lot of conference calls, business data, and media attention over the next week.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Egg,
    Go double or nothing on him! :) So Chi.... are you saying it will not trade down to 1.445 at all? ever? 1st half of the year? I'll take the bet for fun.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Y'er on aqwert!
    Like I would ever turn down a Lynas wager.:-) Lets say not below $1.445 again in H1 (ending 6-30-2012). As for Egg, he's tough. He picks his spots but I'll look forward to his next offer.

     

    But for disclosure to the readers I will admit I am not leveraged anywhere near $1.445. I think I am safe to $1.05 right now with 2-3:1 leverage at 5:1 liquidation. And I will bring that down as the share price rises and I add income.
    2 Feb 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you got a monster gap there to fill Chi... so I accept. :)
    2 Feb 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TA on production hill? Might as well prove that toss wrong too. You're on...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Feb 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you are bumping up against the 200mda at the moment on less volume than yesterday and you are outside the BB. You may be right but there should be a pull back here. Next week ought to be interesting as the hoopla dies down and the real tenor of the announcement is revealed imo. In case you didn't make the connection: production hill is a hill.... pop the clutch and you are going backwards. Either way, that is a monster gap and that is a problem on anybody's chart.
    2 Feb 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    aqwert,
    Production hill refers to the front face of Everest chart that is miners going into production. It's not TA- it's potential becoming valuation. Lynas looks to be climbing a bigger, longer and more certain "production hill" based on the strength of the commodity and the depressed point in valuations it currently has right now. Good luck with that clutch joke. I'm buying with both hands on any pullback and so will funds IMO.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Here's to it Chi!! I'll drink to that! ..and I pray you are right!!
    2 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Gee, Chi... I never could have guess what "production hill" meant on my own. ;) I am not saying that Lynas isn't climbing Everest or whatever mountaintop. Not at all. But climbing a mountain involves risk. That is why it is a mountain. Maybe it is all said and done in Malaysia. Maybe not. Maybe the cracks in the concrete were a once and done event. Maybe not. Who knows. Time will tell. What I am saying is that there is a rather large gap on the chart now and you are at the 200dma. That's it.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Good point TB. ...and in the current optimistic market with major media outlets shouting "BUY! BUY!" and "Add risk now!", that much media coverage alone, even if it's not earth-shattering news, can bring yesterday's nay-Sayers running back into the sector with a vengeance. Not saying that will happen, but it very possibly could.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Na,
    I don't see it that way. I am very confident in LAMP construction, the overkilled politics being dead and the Lynas business model. I think TA does not apply well to Lynas right now. Feel free to stop missing the Lynas boat at anytime aqwert, but Lynas is a big winner either way. Grabbing at straws seems pointless to me, but that's your choice too. And I think it is very important to take risk when the risk/reward calculation is this lopsided in Lynas' favor. Just MO, but I am right.:-)
    2 Feb 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I see. You are funny. Your pomposity is in direct correlation to the share price! :-) I am not grabbing at any straws and I am happy for you. I know that seems hard for you to grasp but it is true. Our bet is still on and as I have ALWAYS said... I hope we both make a ton of money. And I think we will.
    2 Feb 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I'm fine with that qwert.
    My pomposity is in direct correlation to the Lynas stock story. The share price has a long way to catch up with both of those things.;-) But seriously, I am taking a very bullish stance because I think some are tempted by the small gain and I hope they will consider the Lynas stock story with any decision they make.

     

    As for the straws they are the inherent risks all of these stocks face. They should not be ignored, but I think Lynas has them under control for now.
    2 Feb 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/yAWbP8

     

    Another Aussie analyst, this one projecting A$2.90 for LYC.

     

    That's $3.10 american.
    2 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Too conservative, but a good start Pat Broke.:-) Not bad for a 90 day price target I guess.
    2 Feb 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm thinking it could hold through June, but the big milestone (production) will go over $3.
    2 Feb 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    "The licence is valid for two years, and if Lynas complies with regulatory requirements a permanent licence may be issued."

     

    Is a temporary operating license holder required to meet a higher operating standard than a so-called permanent license ? What are the practical differences between the two licenses? Are the licenses titled differently as a political CYA in case something doesn't work as planned ?

     

    I would think that any future mishap would bring the regulators back in to investigate and take action if warranted. LAMP is a complex operation with miles of pipes, chemicals, gases and very mild radioactive waste, and as we have seen around the world, industrial accidents happens. I'm just not sure if there is any substantive difference between the two licenses.
    2 Feb 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    May God bless both Patersons and yourself Chi!! Hell, since I can't drink with ya, I think I might start toasting you on both our behalves!
    2 Feb 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Are the licenses titled differently as a political CYA in case something doesn't work as planned?

     

    That's how I read it, DML. All licenses of this type start temporary in the AELB regs. But who thinks operations will be allowed based on the type of license if things go wrong at any plant? The TOL may involve more monitoring and it will mean the PDF must be decided specifically within 10 months, but that was a given from the application process IMO. And the $50 million decommissioning fund was essentially decided in the IAEA review. All in all, it was a very clean approval IMO.
    2 Feb 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I know some of you are interested in IBC, so here is another viewpoint with some more recent IBC info, interview with Byron King:

     

    " I've been following IBC Alloys for about a year. I came to it not as a basic resource play, because it purchases beryllium from U.S. stockpiles and Kazakhstan, but because I was very impressed with the technical and the engineering skills of what it does with the beryllium and how it does it.

     

    The company supplies high-end apps in aerospace and high-end technology niches. But IBC is also trying to bring beryllium into a more consumerist marketplace, such as automotive applications, because beryllium is lightweight, strong and absorbs vibration really well. If it can crack the automotive market, IBC is looking at entire train cars full of product.

     

    IBC Alloys is also a very advanced company in terms of its work with the nuclear fuels business. Beryllium and uranium can be mixed to create stronger nuclear fuel rods with a higher melting point and different heat-flow capacity. The rods are still in the R&D phase, but the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is already very interested, as is the nuclear power community. The company also has partnerships with companies like General Electric Co. and Hitachi."

     

    Byron King is the resident energy and natural resource expert at Agora Financial, LLC. A geologist by training, he worked for the former Gulf Oil Co. and has followed oil industry developments for over 30 years. King's career path also took him into the U.S. Navy, both in active duty and reserve. Currently, King writes and edits two major publications, Outstanding Investments and Energy & Scarcity Investor. He holds degrees from Harvard, the U.S. Naval War College and the University of Pittsburgh.

     

    The full article was published January 31, 2012 and is available for download here.

     

    The opinions expressed by The Critical Metals Report represent those of that publication and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of IBC. IBC pays The Gold Report a fee for coverage.

     

    IBC Advanced Alloys Corp.

     

    Ian Tootill, Director of Corporate Communications

     

    (604) 685-6263 ext 110

     

    Email: itootill@ibcadvancedal...

     

    Website: http://bit.ly/zQuWXi

     

    About IBC Advanced Alloys Corp.

     

    IBC is an integrated manufacturer and distributor of rare metals (beryllium) based alloys and related products serving a variety of industries including nuclear energy, automotive, telecommunications and a range of industrial applications. IBC has 80 employees and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada with production facilities in Indiana, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Additionally, IBC owns prospective beryllium properties in the western US covering approximately 7,640 hectares. IBC is creating a dynamic global beryllium and advanced alloys company. IBC's common shares are traded on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "IB" and the OTCQX under the symbol "IAALF".

     

    2 Feb 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    IAALF has been showing some activity since the end of January. Thanks for pointing out this interview.

     

    BTW, SRSR is also showing some activity.
    2 Feb 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I was just reviewing SRSR...

     

    I plan to take profits this time at .035, if it gets there.

     

    This one was trading in a higher channel, but got knocked down with the general strategic mineral malaise over the past 6 months.

     

    I believe I mentioned this in a past Concentrator somewhere, but if not, to update, I am trading this one buying at .026-, and selling at .035+, retaining low cost shares and adding them to a longer term core.
    2 Feb 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    The "...downloaded here" link, it isn't there....
    2 Feb 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nope. From a pay site, and for some reason its not available on the IBC home site yet.

     

    I believe we might see a follow on effect in the share price from this. Also, I found it valuable since it presents something other than the junior miner image, which is really not what the company is all about.
    2 Feb 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » USMN is a rare earth penny which I am long on, and which I trade regularly. I am taking profits today, on the news:

     

    "U.S. Rare Earth Minerals, Inc. Announces Bulk Sale of Excelerite(R) to China
    9:31 am ET 02/02/2012 - GlobeNewswire
    BEND, Ore., Feb. 2, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- U.S. Rare Earth Minerals, Inc., (OTCBB:USMN) announced today that it has received its first purchase order confirmation, underwritten by The Bank of China, from a leading independent international distribution broker, Eight Dragons Asia Holdings, LLC. Dennis Cullison, President of USMN stated, "This initial order is for 19 metric tons of Excelerite® Bulk-AG™ and will be delivered to the Port of Shanghai by mid-February. We are very excited about our first shipment to a recognized company in China. This order opens the door to a vast marketing opportunity for Excelerite® and other USMN products. We will have continued sales updates on our website and invite our shareholders to check in often at http://www.us-rem.com to follow our growth."
    2 Feb 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB: What is your current strategy with IAALF? I am out ATM...

     

    Also, would like to get your -and anyone else's- favorite Lithium plays...here or abroad.

     

    Many thanks
    2 Feb 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I continue to accumulate shares, trading the channel between .12 and .16. I am looking for the channel to shift upward soon, not sure how far, perhaps to .14 and .22.
    2 Feb 2012, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I bought into three ages ago..

     

    Rodinia Minerals, Pan American Lithium and Dajin Resources.

     

    I think only Rodinia has legs. The stock on the other two is now worth so little they're not worth selling, so I'm hanging in there, even though they may be turkeys.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    As far as Lynas goes...I will be shocked if we don't see a slow steady trickle of positive news to help sp in days/weeks to come.

     

    The back and forth over Lynas/GW is really old. This kind of stuff was once relegated to other boards with a different following. I really thought it would die with TOL approval. Now we're arguing pullbacks? What next...intraday movements? There are multitudes of things we could all go back and forth on regarding investments and details and details for miles and miles. Conversation here times previous have been much more constructive IMHO...productive. This isn't a sports board: SEC Big 12 offense defense north south east west.....Or a political board: private public conservative progressive tax no tax left right...
    It has to date been one of the most heady investment blogs/communities you will find...anywhere.
    Isn't it about time to move on?
    2 Feb 2012, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The temptation to treat the various competitors as sports teams is perhaps genetic. You see it whenever you have such a narrow field in such a young, startup sector.

     

    I am hopeful that (since the backandforth is now pretty friendly) what we have is a positive force for good and the capitalist way...

     

    My personal observation is pretty much the same, I am long Great Western (which is soaring today, looks like the new furnace is cooking up some interest), Lynas (amazingly tight and flat $1.70 range, if you can call a near-straight line a "range"), and of course MolyCorp (announced they will be paying me $1.375 per preferred convertible share, so I'm getting paid pretty well to wait and wonder what they are going to do with the new $390m from MolyMet).

     

    Add on my holdings in juniors like ARAFF, GDLNF (took profits there today, nice spike, maybe the general sector move is showing among the little guys), GOLDF, IAALF (see note above), QREDF (sell, sell, these are good prices), UAMY, USMN, UURAF (expecting this one to move up to my .53 sell mark soon), etc.

     

    Its still a sector with room to grow and room to pick and choose.
    2 Feb 2012, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Hi Rain-
    I was thinking this morning along the same lines...that Lynas needs a slow steady trickle of good news. What do you think we should be watching for? The obvious milestones are:
    1) Concentrate shipped/received/fed
    2) More customer commitments
    3) Siemens JV progress
    4) Duncan developments

     

    Anything else?

     

    Personally, I'd also like to see more announcements of continued community engagement and education programs in Malaysia.

     

    freo
    2 Feb 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Freo,

     

    Chi has covered this pretty extensively...and your list looks pretty good. I expect to see some analyst re-rates, coverages and commentary. Would love to see increased media coverage (though not holding breath).

     

    Your list covers alot, here's a few more

     

    1. Should get coverage changes by holders MS and JP at the least.
    2. Mt. weld progress updates (as related to #3 below)
    3. shipping date estimates
    4. pricing increases possible (remember, this is a real product with real value but also one which has already shown a history of hype-induced price moves, and nothing new from CHina as many pundits called last year)
    5. phase 2- plans and target updates
    6. Important: Lamp progress updates and quality/process checks
    .....
    2 Feb 2012, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    I kind of like watching the byplay. I'm long both (GWMGF) and (LYSDY). I recently added (MCPRA) to the stable and will be reinvesting the dividend TB mentioned above. At least the conversation here rotates around an investment thesis and not differing agendas. I lurk here frequently when not engaging on the Breakfast club or the QC. Thanks guys and gals.
    2 Feb 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Robert Ferguson: I have been eying the MCP preferred and almost bit a few days back. TB gave his opinion of an entry...what was that, TB? What is your opinion for entry, RF?
    2 Feb 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Currently I am still marking time around $60 for any potential additional shares of MCP preferred. Frankly I will need to know more about their Molymet deal and what they intend to do with all that money before revisiting that decision.
    2 Feb 2012, 07:49 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Rain: Greetings. I'm at the same place as TB. I picked mine up for $57.50 on a significant dip using proceeds from the sale of Visa (V). I try and keep money that earns dividends in dividend paying stocks for compounding.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    Jon, Springer linked this Pt group article on the QC. It's worth a look IMHO. http://seekingalpha.co...
    2 Feb 2012, 06:24 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    Here's a cool short story about platinum, Robert, which might capture the imagination of the investing public.
    http://read.bi/wE7VgE
    2 Feb 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    VB: Greetings. Thanks for the link. Just goes to show that no good deed goes unpunished eh? Wish I could watch the video. If I remember I'll look at it when I get home.
    3 Feb 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Rough start down under for Lynas....clear profit-taking. Bet it won't take long to consolidate and hold up.

     

    Just for the record...I tried adding GW this a.m. and failed a few times. I haven't traded it in awhile and forgot what a hard time I have with that stock. I am on TD and for some reason that stock gives me issues like no other. MIssed <.60 and even chased just above...
    2 Feb 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My experience has been that my trades on my Schwab account for Canadian stocks go smoothly... Not so much on my other accounts, particularly for pinks.
    2 Feb 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    ...trying to decide if Lynas pullback will be one day...or two...and to what price.
    I'll say one and one-half day down under to 1.42/1.44 and then turn.
    Lowest price here may be around 1.57/1.59.
    And Giants 27-20 ;)
    2 Feb 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Hey, what degree of worry should we have about March elections? That is the only thing I can see (real or just perceived/market panic inducing) that could trip up. NC responded to MPs threat a day before big news and it kind of got swept under the TOL news. I can get the link if it isnt here...

     

    ...here it is...

     

    http://reut.rs/wEZafD
    2 Feb 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1744) | Send Message
     
    All the successful traders here will make more on Lynas and MCP than I will. :(

     

    A few weeks back when asked to list my top 10 in the space I listed LYSDY for the first 5 positions and MCP-PA for the next 5. Boring as it may be, I buy on pullbacks and have only sold incrementally on the way up. I'm now a bit light on MCP pr, having sold some at 68 and 69 for a profit. I'll buy more even before it hits TBs buy point -- at 60-62, we are still making 9% a year (albeit not for long) in addition to the capital gains. That one I can trade. Lynas I'll just keep "sock"ing away...
    2 Feb 2012, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas: Profit taking in full swing down under. Likely to gap down on the Pinks, assuming the trend persists.

     

    Currently A$1.495, or about $1.58 american.

     

    Is MP/Mitsubishi working to cover some large short positions?

     

    Volume is already over 37million shares, so Sydney is active tonight. Early yet, so this is one to watch for the night owls and westcoasters among us.
    2 Feb 2012, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    think we'll see 1.56 here...
    2 Feb 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I am not sure where the Aus. LYC equates to but the gap fill would be 1.445 I think on the pinks. But that is just me.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I'm sorry.. I misspoke. The gap fill would be 1.43
    2 Feb 2012, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Yes AQ you're right. I was speculating it wouldnt drop that far here, but, technically, your number is right. Will be lower today than my guess based on ASX close.
    3 Feb 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    TB, CHi, Freo et al... See question above re: March elections
    2 Feb 2012, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Rain-
    I don't know about the politics in Malaysia. My take, from what I have read, though, is that Lynas was Fuziah Salleh's primary platform for getting her face out there. Here is the latest: http://bit.ly/w4c2dX. She has appealed to a certain demographic and raised some concerns, most of which were un-necessary (and some which were valid, IMO). Now, she has lost. The recent statements from NC and Fuzzy were a perfect opportunity for the opposition poli's to jump on the Fuzzy bandwagon and show support but I haven't seen that happen yet. I think you are right to be concerned, but, IF Lynas can show they truly can perform as promised, I can see the issue fading away.
    Also, if any more business pops up based on this TOL (the notable one I can imagine in the short term is the Siemens JV), I think the opp poli's will have to stand aside.
    One interesting thing I've noted in our local (Fremantle) political circles is the poli who supported SMSL (Adele Carles) has been relatively quiet. Her main argument against the shipping, which surfaced some months ago, has changed from 'no radioactive shipments through Fremantle' to 'no bulk ore shipments through Fremantle'. I suspect this position will possibly gain traction over time, although there is so much money at stake that any change that might happen is sure to be business-friendly anyway. The argument being: don't ship this stuff through our (residential) area and ship it out of some other more remote port. Also, worth noting in the latest I read from Carles': she points out that the ore being transported and shipped from here is not classified as radioactive but when it arrives in Malaysia, it is. I had pointed this out earlier and it has to do with which IAEA regulations are adopted by the country (Malaysis using an older standard). It just shows the silliness of likening Lynas' radioactivity with Fukushima or some other extreme...
    3 Feb 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2220) | Send Message
     
    It might be more practical in a few more years to bypass Fremantle by shipping ores and concentrates from Western Australia's Midwest Region, especially the new Oakajee Port.
    http://bit.ly/x0uwJm
    3 Feb 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Curtis has said he is not worried about Malaysian elections and neither am I. Honestly, I am bored to death with Malaysian politics and see them as a minimal part of Lynas going forward. This might have mattered before approval, but is less likely to matter now IMO.
    2 Feb 2012, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    Agreed Chi. Big fish in a small pond trying to make an intimidating *splash* while they have the opportunity. I believe the deal is done. Onward we go.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6282) | Send Message
     
    I must have missed it... What is Lynas doing with the waste?
    2 Feb 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They have 10 months to finalize a plan acceptable to the AELB and the Malay cabinet.
    3 Feb 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not sure how this translates into the various sport betting lines, but LYC ended the night at A$1.43, or about $1.53 american. I believe this is a legitimate buying opp...
    3 Feb 2012, 05:36 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    I agree.
    3 Feb 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm not a fan of TA in so far as "filling gaps". This might well occur, and the $1.42 is certainly possible, but in a stock and sector utterly dominated by news and geopolitics, I give TA less weight...

     

    I believe we will have a buying opp today, though the direction the stock takes may be different from that seen on the ASX. In Sydney Lynas is a major stock - listed on the primary exchange - and a member of the ASX100. The volume is many times that we see here, and was over 61 million shares last night. This sort of situation means it is involved with major whales (MS/Mitsubishi among them, as we have seen) who use options extensively, and have the resources to move share price during major shifts. The situation here, on the pink sheets, is the opposite. It is a tertiary stock listed on a tertiary exchange and a member of no major index. The volume is many times lower than down under, and is rarely anywhere near 1 million shares (total LYSDY and LYSCF) volume. Options are limited and dangerous to move the large quantities needed to make them attractive to whales, and the odds of the whale getting stranded in a low volume trading trap mean the short action is muted compared to the ASX.

     

    We are also likely to see late media notice suddenly occur of the story, which can disrupt the profit taking cycle I would normally expect.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    What will be the next major event that will spike Lynas's share price?
    3 Feb 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I think today is about the improving macro picture. This jobs number is good. I think it would be very good for the sector to see the REE prices rebound with the economy. Improved prices could once again drive funding and serve as a big lift in this space.

     

    As for Lynas on the ASX, yesterday was more of a pullback than I expected. I think less of this will happen as Lynas goes from a spec to a valuation story. Perhaps there will be more volatility than I expected because of overall investor confidence. But I don't think that is the focus now.

     

    The focus for Lynas holders should be the clear path to cash flow. They are funded, approved and planning first feed in two months. Most Lynas holders have waited out a lot. That wait is coming to an end soon. Exactly when Lynas pays is not certain. But getting paid and getting paid soon looks certain to me.
    3 Feb 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    PPS held up relatively well all things considered this morning. I tried a move in LYSDY and almost got caught out as the floor was more solid than I thought.

     

    TB, can you explain how the situation plays out in your MItsubishi covering example above? I thought covering drove prices higher... What were you speculating exactly? Thanks
    3 Feb 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I did not propose that any whales were covering shorts in LYC on ASX last night, but the oppopsite...

     

    Its possible that the price action the day before included shorts covering, however.

     

    We won't know much about what MS/Mitsubishi did until they report their trades (this is done periodically with a pdf posted as an announcement on the LYC section of the ASX board). Last time they were net accumulating shares, coming back from dumping millions of shares (and helping drive down price). They own around 10% of the company, and thus they might have as many as 200million shares to use as leverage. A few strategically placed sale orders (and yesterday saw a high volume on the ASX) would put hardly a dent in their hoard... But we won't know whether this happened until we see the pdf list.

     

    Note that the pinks are now trading around $1.60 - $1.61, well above the close on the ASX.
    3 Feb 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think this did happen to some extent. No long term Lynas holder can doubt the tree shaking and other manipulation. The stock is way too volatile to deny this stuff goes on. Right now I think the whole ASX has too many traders/flippers. The exchange appears way undervalued by several metrics.

     

    But the increasing volume in LYC is a good sign. This with the stock story going from future to present will reduce some volatility going forward. Bottom line is full funding, full approval, and a timeline of weeks instead of months or years addresses all of the major hurdles juniors face. Most of the remaining risks are inherent risk. Having those qualities as a frontier project in their field is a big deal that will put the shorts on their heels very soon.

     

    The POL's clean approval de-risked Lynas, but it also opened the door to several catalysts hitting the stock for the next six months or so. Here is a list of some high points:
    -Concentrate gets sent from WA
    -Concentrate arrives in Gebeng
    -Most Advanced and largest Rare earth processing plant is completed
    -Test Feed
    -First Feed to any modern processing of rare earths
    -First Output from any modern processing of rare earths
    -Ramp-up of LAMP
    -Recovery and Capacity update of targets (Mt. Weld has done well and Rhodia tech with LAMP's modern equipment could give an upside surprise IMO)
    -First Sale
    -First Earnings
    -First Positive Cash Flow
    -Possible JV's or Off take Announcements
    -Metallurgy on Duncan
    -Duncan progress (could easily be first producing HREE deposit with a 4.8% ore grade).
    -LAMP Phase 2 updates

     

    That is a lot to look at as a shorter. I think they'll move on very soon.
    3 Feb 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Retraction: I DID mention Mitsubishi "working to cover some shorts", sorry for the confusion. I should have detailed the ideas I just put forth. LOL, my comment was clear as mud, my apologies Rain.
    3 Feb 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully the list will also include a confirmation that the radiation levels measured during process flow are lower than the required guidelines (sort of a similar announcement of the upside yield for the Mt Weld concentration process). Something positive to announce to further deflate the sails of any local opposition.
    4 Feb 2012, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Sry guys....one more time....Why would a whale sale after good news?
    3 Feb 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Because he had bet the other way, ie, shorted the stock anticipating bad news. Now he is facing a large loss on the short bets unless he can bail himself out by selling shares. If the price starts out elevated (in this case, it did) his first sales are sweet, profitable sales anyway. As he continues to move blocks out pushing the price down, however, the profits tail off. At this point it becomes a simple math equation - he is seeking to bring the price down to where his short bets are canceled or turned around. If his efforts don't show progress (ie, if his selling pressure is not affecting the buying pressure) he will stop and cover his losses.

     

    This is a simplistic scenario, and there are many others, but this happens all the time. Some large players will use this strategy to free up shares or trip stop loss orders when they want to add to their positions at a cheaper price.

     

    Its this sort of capability which is behind the reporting requirements when an entity owns so many shares in a company that they exert this sort of potential influence (MS/Mitsubishi last reported having almost exactly 10% of all Lynas shares, which is a "lot").
    3 Feb 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    I get it....I think...I just always thought shorters who get squeezed drove price up when they must bail.
    5 Feb 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Not when they own hundreds of millions of shares and have very deep pockets.

     

    Small players cannot do this, they just move in the wake of the whales and follow the currents.

     

    Its appropriate to also remember that options have a powerful "time" element. Squeezes occur as a function of price AND time. The more time is available for options, the less likely a concerted squeeze will occur (crowding in a small space of time with lots of shares to buy or sell has something to do with that).
    5 Feb 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    [GW] Would love opinions on add/entry points and general layout for Great Western. My well-timed but poorly priced attempts Thursday a.m. failed...and will have to re-evaluate a good entry...Thanks in advance for views
    3 Feb 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm holding fast to my core position with GWM right now. I still need more details about the processing plant deal, how it will be funded, and so on. Lacking this I view the increase derived from the new furnace as "nice", but not enough to prompt me to add at these prices or start trading blocs (volatility is insufficient and there's not a coherent channel present).
    3 Feb 2012, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    So I guess this class action agrees with me that Moly is not really "on time and on budget" http://yhoo.it/xTDyaD

     

    Note: It is just a filing and no level of proof has been met so far.

     

    The complaint alleges that defendants’ false and misleading statements about the capability of the Company’s “Mountain Pass” mining operation and the Company’s earnings caused Molycorp common stock to trade at artificially inflated prices throughout the Class Period. Specifically, defendants misrepresented and/or failed to disclose the following adverse facts during the Class Period: (a) Molycorp’s development and expansion of the Mountain Pass mine was not progressing on schedule and would not allow the Company to reach rare earth oxide production rates at the end of calendar 2012 and 2013; and (b) end users had been reducing demand for the Company’s products as prices for rare earth elements increased.
    4 Feb 2012, 01:23 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    What do you guys expect from Lynas this week?
    5 Feb 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » One thing we can expect is news of the Malay luddites launching lawsuits against Lynas. This was promised, and it is pretty certain that it will happen.

     

    As Chi noted above, MCP is seeing a class action because of the opposite problem to that of Lynas' success in building the LAMP - ie, a LACK of progress by MolyCorp not matching projections.

     

    LOL, if GWM somehow attracts similar attention from some group seeking to block its progress (or demand more of the same), we will once again have common problems plaguing all 3 of the frontrunners.

     

    Back to Lynas, its currently trading up about 1% down under, pacing the ASX overall. I believe it will continue to react to news headlines, which will tend to vacillate wildly between the attentions of the faux-green luddites and the business news relating what I expect will be a series of minor milestones (this week we might see an update for the LAMP as they are able to contemplate operational startup.

     

    I believe several folks have mentioned the first substantial shipment of ore from Australia as a minor headline. I believe that we might also see a more detailed construction news release, particularly if they can put some major LAMP function in the "complete" category. Lynas has, prior to this, let these run "in the background" while the geopolitical events grabbed the center stage, but I am personally hoping that they start spending more time discussing operational accomplishments and plans and less time with the Malay luddites.
    5 Feb 2012, 10:39 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Volatility and an up week overall.
    Same weekly forecast each week but progressively more bullish till about July.
    5 Feb 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Trying to figure out where waste diposal on site plays into timeline...this must be completed prior to production but hasn't received much talk in the last week. Did I miss something?
    6 Feb 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas got a 10 month period from the AELB in which to finalize their plan. This has not yet been published, of course, though I would not expect them to wait until the penultimate moment to send in their plan.

     

    In the meantime they WILL be completing construction and doing everything they can to get to the point where they will NEED such a plan.

     

    I'm not saying they don't already have an idea of what they will do, but that it would be premature to share it, and even after they commence production somewhere in the future they will not be forthcoming until the AELB rules on it.
    6 Feb 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/wxLNNl

     

    South African mining tax policy appears to be set for the foreseeable future, good news in general. Nice mention of GWM at the end of the article.

     

    Adding Lynas... Took profits on IAALF...
    6 Feb 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10491) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Thanks for the link. While it is somewhat reassuring it still leaves allot of unpleasant possibilities on the table.
    6 Feb 2012, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/xIWLIq

     

    Video interview with NC.
    6 Feb 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, LYC was down over 4% last night down under. Another gap down coming for us. Volume was lackluster, below average, so the days of high interest and volume are gone for now. If the American pinks follow the ASX lead (and so far they have) we should see a buying opportunity for those who missed buying prior to the TOL, or perhaps a price a bit lower (illogical as that is).

     

    Buying pressure is lacking, and willing sellers appear plentiful, so the lack of buyers will ultimately have to be solved for the price to stabilize short term.

     

    The closer Lynas comes to becoming a producer, the less the usual litany of junior miner milestones means to the markets. Now it is an equation waiting for the company to sell LAMP metals and oxides to fulfill customer orders and bank profits. We may not see much movement until we are close to that point... Say May.

     

    The recent high around $1.70 is likely to be resistance until proximity to actual production.
    7 Feb 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    In US$, Lynas closed at nearly 1.49 on Oz last night.
    7 Feb 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. This is right about where RBS Morgan was calling a "buy". They might be right. I will probably add a little more today myself.
    7 Feb 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Well, clearly this is not how production hill should look. I don't know if its delayed due to the nascent industry or the lack of price history for the commodities at this level, but there is a lot of caution for now. I am going to play it more cautious than original plans. But the success seems inevitable to me at this point. I really see nothing wrong with Lynas but the crowd controls the share price and their interest seems weak.
    For now I will hold positions and wait for the demand. Pressing the issue could prove disappointing at this stage. Better to hold and take comfort in the progress of what looks like a great company to me.
    7 Feb 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think that's wise, Chi, particularly when including margin leverage in the mix.
    7 Feb 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Fortunately, I had not really pressed the leverage yet. I know some great guys that did. I think I can just add income to remove mine at this point. For those caught, my advice would be "your first sale is your best", and worry about making it back when the trend turns and not before. To an imperfect extent that is how I handled last September when I did get caught. There is no ideal situation, but all leverage is a momentum play so you need a strong trend to play it IMO.
    7 Feb 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    In the FWIW category, my take on our price slippage is too much Greece on the wheel. Remember, ASX didn't have the benefit of the glimmer of hope that has seeped out today. That drug the price down in Aussie town. Our drop is chained to their drop, just cuz that's how ..it rolls as they say; i.e. down hill.
    7 Feb 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    Another possibility is the EZ recession. If the EZ really does have a recession building, a lot of the REE demand that goes into products they buy will drop off. Less demand could foretell lower near-term profitability.

     

    Some folks might decide to wait before jumping on the train.

     

    HradToLove
    7 Feb 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I'm not sure demand from Europe factors into profitability from near term production does it? I think all "near term" production (from the time production starts), is already contracted for and sold isn't it? Also, I would think that countries building their strategic stockpiles would be the next largest area of demand. JMT. What do I know...
    7 Feb 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19536) | Send Message
     
    You could be right. I do suspect though that the supply contracts have some variability in demand built in - especially if they are multi-year. And it's probably common to have price indexed to spot. I don't know, just suspect.

     

    As to stockpiling, with the EZ sovereigns having to implement austerity all over the place, what's the chance they'll stockpile while their economies are contracting, consumer-demand is being undercut by cutbacks, ... Why stockpile at high prices while demand for the materials may be several years out?

     

    Viewed this way, if I'm "big money" I'm saying that I can get in much later at a much better price.

     

    All speculation by me.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Feb 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (756) | Send Message
     
    I think you are right with regard to stockpiling in the EZ. I don't think they'll be trying to stockpile maximum amounts, but I still think that most of the healthier economies would be looking at getting the pile started, I'm pretty sure the US would in that mix. Those economies who are struggling most wouldn't likely be stockpiling candidates anyway, I don't think. That's potentially a lot of REO, albeit a small % of what the countries might like to be hoarding. I don't think it has to do with demand at all, but rather economic security, so if another supply chain *hiccup* comes along, they have a little breathing room in finding a solution.
    7 Feb 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Chi, you are now 0-2. TA does work on production hill and what you predicted would never happened in 6 months took 4 days. The question now is it a simple gap fill or is it something more ominous. That I don't know.
    7 Feb 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    oh I see the bet was for 1.445. I have missed it so far by .005. So technically the bet is still alive, Chi.

     

    However, the gap does not close till 1.43. If closes that and turns right around to the upside then I would say you Lynasheads are good to go. If not, then you still have some trouble ahead for whatever reason. But like I said... that was some monster gap and on any chart you certainly don't want to see that be left open. So in the long run it is best that it gets filled now, imo.
    7 Feb 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I think my previous comments cover this. It is apparently not "production hill" yet. Not sure why the delay, but I'm happy to wait.

     

    I still feel "gap theory" is just down ramping nonsense.
    7 Feb 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Production in this case is being very strictly interpreted (whereas I have been in other pre-production stocks where just getting orders and a physically built plant was "hurrah time").

     

    As so often happens to us, the "rare earth sector is different" phrase strikes again.

     

    I am now reviewing re-entering several investments in the precious metal mining sector, and I am having to alter my thinking AWAY from the logic I use for rare earths. They are just similar enough to get me into trouble...
    7 Feb 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    All true, Aq...the thing about technical gaps and pinks that you like is...and especially if you are already in a very good position....news will trump technicals short-term. Many were expecting a bit more of a news flow following the TOL...and that would have made things different. Not taking issue at all with your posts above...just re-stating something which has always challenged me personally. I have seen technicals ignored many times with these types of stocks, but...barring new news...they do prove to hold most often.
    7 Feb 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    It has always been a mystery to me...I mean, I'm looking at Lynas last night and asx chart overnight this morning and...clearly...gap being filled here today only due to negative interest rate news down under which sucked LYC down with the rest of the ASX. Looked like it was holding clearly around 1.41 until then and then the news cam...giving us<1.50 here today. So the questing is, if the interest news didnt come...would that gap have ever filled here?
    7 Feb 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1336) | Send Message
     
    Adding LYSDY today...
    7 Feb 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    interesting.... Chi's "piss off" comment to me is now missing and my reply never posted.

     

    TB did you delete that? Or some mysterious glitch?
    7 Feb 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    I think TB deleted it for the sake of readers. I agree other readers don't need to read it. I should have said it privately.
    7 Feb 2012, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I deleted it Chi. Thanks for your understanding. Aqwert, your return never made it, (I never even saw it) it was still in the que and got "vanished" along with Chi's comment. This is how the author delete (we can't edit comments, just delete them on our own blogs) works. Deleting a comment also takes out all downstream comments indented under that comment.
    7 Feb 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    New Concentrator is ready. Evacuation protocol is in place, hurricane of error messages is just minutes away...

     

    555555555555555555555555

     

    5555555555555555555555555
    7 Feb 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
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  • SIlver. (FRMSF.PK) up 8.50%, (SLW) up 7.16%, (GPRLF.PK) up 11.83%. Also (PLG) up 6.19% for the platinum group.
    Nov 4, 2010
  • Conviction picks this week: (NVAX) and (NATUF.PK).
    Oct 24, 2010
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