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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 733 comments
    Mar 18, 2014 12:54 PM

    Time for a fresh Concentrator, so here goes...

    Jack Lifton's recent bombshell that both Lynas and MolyCorp need to bankrupt out is having a marked effect on the REE space. His recent comments as a guest speaker at a conference in China are here, in his current article: http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/rest-world-chinese-perspective-rare-earth-supply-demand-next-decade-2014-2020/

    Taken with his dire view of MCP and LYC, the article appears to have set some parameters which look very favorably upon a few small projects in the West, chiefly GWM and their SKK mine.

    This is the sort of media exchange to gladden the hearts of the Chinese REE industry and government, of course.

    I have been watching this sort of thing coming for a long time, and its both unsurprising (very) and alarming. The silence from Lynas management on such topics as their once-trumpeted sustainable pricing initiative and a lucrative tolling contract for the many valuable REE's they are not currently separating from their concentrated ore is puzzling, a puzzle I will examine more thoroughly later in this blog entry...

    Frontier's CEO has some ideas about where to focus attention in the REE suite, the Critical REEs mentioned prominently here and elsewhere: http://investorintel.com/rare-earth-intel/frontiers-james-kenny-debunks-major-rare-earth-industry-debates/

    We are once again looking at an intense short term economic and geopolitical crisis involving the small REE community. Hot money and government support is rotating back into the altenergy sector worldwide (Japan's recent announcement of an immense subsidy program for Lithium Ion battery storage is a case in point), and some of that money is likely to bleed over into the REE space, but with the usual problem that the immediate market prospects are much less attractive than those excpected in another few years or so.

    This time gap is being reflected in the withdrawal of support from the companies (like Lynas and MCP) currently manning the front lines, with actual production capacity, because they are perceived to be "too early" to mesh with the expected massive demand thought to be in the out-years of 2016 or 2017 or later.

    Western governments are far behind the Chinese curve, of course, in every way, and I believe are unlikely to even become aware of the problem until it blows up in their faces. Much has happened to comprise "fair warning", including the stern words from Chinese national leadership, but the short-sighted West is not looking beyond its own navel and whether or not Apple can deliver their fresh new IPhone tomorrow.

    Europe is pursuing its own odd path, notably with TAS, which is expanding into a template which neatly matches the anticipated strategic mineral supply problems of the next decade. Beyond the REE patch, TAS is configuring its projects to address other minerals which haunt the strategic headlines.

    Lynas looks to be at a bottom, sitting on shifting sands, with every expectation that they can increase their production as well as engineer a new round of funding (probably one that overlaps the current debt, but extends their runway). The lack of substantive news about their plans leads me to think that the deal is in the works as we speak (not lurking out 12 months from now). What we don't know is how ambitious any such plan might be. I see it falling in a range from a relatively small bit of funding intended to provide operating money for the coming year or so, to a complete reworking of their current debt, rolling it into a single deal (perhaps with one of the two major participants) that nets out the needed operating funds - extends the timeline for repayment - and reduces the payment friction... With the most grand outcome potentially being to dive into developing Duncan and setting up their own separation facilities for the heavies/critical elements.

    I won't try to handicap WHICH of the multiple funding options are used by Lynas, and I would be surprised if they did not also simultaneously issue more stock (they have done this before). But I don't think we will have to wait a year to see what happens.

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Comments (733)
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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Hey TB!

     

    AUD going up against USD today (over $0.091 now), so maybe LYC gets a boost here tomorrow.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Mar 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Heh! That should be "over $0.91 now".

     

    HardToLove
    18 Mar 2014, 01:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks HTL. I was beginning to worry...

     

    Anyway, .91 and lower was simply too steep a drop for the AU$ and is likely to slip upward closer to .92 soon. They will ultimately revisit the .8x region after some of the things brewing in China and Japan pop, but if I am correct about China ratcheting the yuan down about 2% vs the $...

     

    Currency wars in full swing soon. China will either win quickly (as Putin did with Crimea today) and generate stronger than expected orders for commodities from sources like Australia, or...

     

    The battles bog down into a long slug fest, and the commodity sellers get pounded, and probably respond by dialing back their currency to soften the blow on their high-salaried populations.
    18 Mar 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, trip!

     

    Really hard, really really hard to hang on to my Lynas shares.

     

    In the current make up of my portfolio, Lynas is the weakest link.
    18 Mar 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Hang in there Maya, we're about to pass through the valley of death. Better days are ahead (fingers crossed).
    18 Mar 2014, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    If you get rid of Lynas someone else moves into the last position. There will always be a last until you empty the account. LOL
    20 Mar 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Mineweb published some data from a new (Germany's)Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources summary on 2013 pricing, and also reported on a Xinhua report on the Chinese stats. See how the Cartel grows!
    http://bit.ly/1nDlfpw
    19 Mar 2014, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. The Chinese REE Cartel continues to grow and prosper.

     

    The "quota" being discussed is for exports, I think, rather than production.

     

    Market prices ex-China are entirely dependent on a very few variables now:

     

    1. How much smuggling is allowed by the government?

     

    2. How large are the stockpiles accumulated by the various middlemen (most Japanese)?

     

    3. How much (if any) of the Critical REEs will be processed by the few Western producers such as MCP and LYC?

     

    4. How much of the export quotas will be made up of Critical REEs and how much by common light elements?

     

    I keep circling back to #1 as the major question. If the Chinese ever get serious about this topic, supplies will tighten immediately.
    19 Mar 2014, 08:16 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    From Metals.com:

     

    China’s Share in Rare Earth Market Down Markedly:

     

    http://bit.ly/1pfDInK’s-share-in-rare-earth...
    20 Mar 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, what they call "markedly" is hardly worth noting, particularly since the figures don't really include smuggling. And the small % drop is entirely in the most common and cheapest elements.
    20 Mar 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    More money coming to Northern Minerals. Another 16 million shares issued. The Chinese conglomerate Conglin international still heavily involved.
    I like NTU, it just seems they are heavily diluting the share base...
    http://bit.ly/OE3U0c
    21 Mar 2014, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5682) | Send Message
     
    TORONTO, ONTARIO -- (Marketwired) -- 03/21/14 -- North American Palladium Ltd. ("NAP" or the "Company") (TSX: PDL)(NYSE MKT: PAL) is pleased to provide an update on its mineral reserve and resource estimates and life of mine plan for its Lac des Iles mine property in northwestern Ontario. An update of current 2014 operations and production at LDI is also provided.
    "We are pleased with the overall increase in contained palladium ounces in our reserves and resources and the improved economics of our updated life of mine plan for LDI," said Phil du Toit, President and CEO. "Our operations are performing well year to date and the fundamentals for the palladium market remain favorable. As we continue through 2014 we will focus on continued operational improvements, lowering unit costs and further diamond drilling to potentially convert our large mineral resource to reserves."
    Due to the material increase in reserves and resources, the Company is required by regulatory legislation to file a revised NI 43-101 technical report and intends to do so on or before March 31, 201
    21 Mar 2014, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Palladium continues to be an under-reported PM story. I think PAL might be a good gamble short term in anticipation of the new 43-101 due in a week or so...

     

    But thorough due diligence by everyone before they invest (and after) is essential. This company has some mis-steps in its history.
    21 Mar 2014, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    I looked into PAL a couple of months ago, and saw that they had a quasi form of PIPE financing. Before buying some PAL, suggest to check out their last financing deal.

     

    Nice bounce today, though.
    21 Mar 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm already out with a profit. This is a trade not a hold imo.
    21 Mar 2014, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Stillwater is in good shape. I would consider them best of breed right now--actually profitable and sitting on a cash war chest that they are about to deploy--there is talk of stock buybacks or paying out a dividend. They already reported a couple of weeks ago.
    21 Mar 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    To clarify: I am not suggesting that a speculative trade on PAL a forty-five cent stock, and Stillwater, a $15 dollar stock, is the same kind of animal. I'm just alerting anyone who might be interested in the platinum group that Stillwater is worthy of the time for due diligence,imo.
    21 Mar 2014, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Here we are July 3rd: A review of Stillwater from the time of this comment:
    on 3/21/14 SWC closed at $15.60. Today it trades at $18.50.

     

    There are still shortages in this market, even though the strikers in SA went back to work.
    PAL fell from $.50 area in March to $.30 area now. Unless it solves its debt issues, the stock is as good as dead!
    3 Jul 2014, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (OTCPK:LYSCF),(OTCQX:LYSDY): "Lynas Can't Afford Further Delays"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    21 Mar 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Hard.

     

    Looks like LYSCF production figures from this month are critical, and also critical to me figuring out whether or not to keep holding, or bail.
    21 Mar 2014, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nameplate Phase 1 for LAMP is about 917mt per month. To progress from the 250mt they made in January to 917mt in June would mean they should be adding about 134mt per month (384mt in February, and 518mt for March). This is a simple math exercise, and of course there are always many variables, but that would be one metric to watch.

     

    11,000,000 kilograms at something over $25/kilo translates into something over $275mm/a.

     

    They would probably be cash flow positive at that point.

     

    I believe we will also see the cost of production go down somewhat over the same period, as they tweak the plant and address cost saving plans...

     

    BUT all this assumes they actually meet their June estimate for nameplate production, and do so without further expensive problems.
    21 Mar 2014, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ausheds made some good comments on that article. Another takeaway is that the author sees the Lynas NAV as around $.60... This is close to the near term price goal for JPM as well.

     

    The announcement that Lynas is selling LA at $15/kilo means that their basket will be higher ($25 appears to have been met recently, and something higher downstream of this looks doable at this point). This partially meets my long goal regarding "sustainable pricing".

     

    Remaining unanswered is the question of a tolling contract for their residual REEs, which include the higher priced elements and the most critical among them.
    21 Mar 2014, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Q4XCYD

     

    Higher geopolitical tensions coming.
    23 Mar 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    Tasman nears 52 week high. Most other rare earth miners flat or near 52 week lows i.e.. AVL,QRM,LYC, MCP

     

    Wonder if some big money is betting on TAS?
    23 Mar 2014, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The biggest. The EU.
    23 Mar 2014, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    The EU has a separate bureaucracy devoted just to working on that.
    http://bit.ly/1phPOi9
    28 Mar 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Australian rare earths miner signs MoU with Chinese firm

     

    http://bit.ly/ORgrx8

     

    Greenland Minerals and Energy has signed an MoU with China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry’s Foreign Engineering and Construction Co. (NFC) to building an integrated global rare earth supply chain.

     

    According to GME this agreement “sets out a framework for both parties to co-operate in aligning the rare earth concentrates from GMEL’s Kvanefjeld Project, with NFC’s rare earth separation.

     

    Acquisitions of Australian rare earth miners are strongly backed by the Chinese Government, a China-based industrial banker said. Since 2004, or even earlier, the Chinese government has treated rare earth resources as strategic. In order to protect the resources available to China, the government employs a three-pronged strategy; rare earth exports are restricted, imports encouraged, and outbound rare earth acquisitions actively encouraged.

     

    With fellow Australian rare earth miners Lynas Corporation and Arafura Resources already seeing Chinese ownership on their stockholding, GME was the last independent Australian rare earths company not aligned with a Chinese rare earths business.
    24 Mar 2014, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Expected news. China still has the same policies in place to support routing all critical REEs through Chinese processing plants. Period. When I recently read of Soljay inking deals with nonproducing Western juniors for long contracts to process their offtake, I wondered how long before I read headlines like this.

     

    China will jockey for position in this arena, and I think they will dominate.

     

    As they lock down more and more of the planet's strategic resources, one has to wonder when (not if) the West will awaken to the situation.

     

    As for the effect on Lynas, this SHOULD be supportive of the share price, overall. I think that Lynas could quickly ink a tolling deal for the REEs they are not processing through the LAMP (ie, not cerium, lanthanum or praseodymium/neodymium).

     

    Share price has collapsed recently and I consider "captulation" (*ie, "blood in the streets") to be occurring. IF the geopolitical situation was opposite to the reality, this would be a scenario for Lynas to, indeed, go bankrupt and new owners buy the assets... But that is not the case. There has never been a stronger geopolitical case to be made for Lynas than the current one, and never a better time to be seeking strategic partners.

     

    "...it was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."

     

    Whether it is also the time of Wisdom remains to be seen.
    25 Mar 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    TB said: "There has never been a stronger geopolitical case to be made for Lynas than the current one, and never a better time to be seeking strategic partners."

     

    ...and one has to wonder where Crimea will go in regard to sanctions against Russia. I'm guessing it could be bullish for critical metals. I'm not really clear how much impact this situation has on the market.
    25 Mar 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Rare Earth WTO case against China may result in opposite effect:

     

    http://bit.ly/NU1DNe
    26 Mar 2014, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    So far (OTCPK:LYSCF) trible 10-day average volume @ ~1MM. Added trading blocks at $0.166, figuring this was really bloody.

     

    A$0.9228 and rising with US$ index $80.19 and just started a small rise.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Mar 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm now projecting high .92 level near term for the A$...

     

    Bottom seems to be in. Now the announcement from Lynas is due any day...

     

    Note the note that Greenland GDLNF was the "last Australian independent REE company" to cut an alliance with the Chinese Cartel...

     

    I wonder just how Lynas will be selling into China. Could the next round of funding come from that source? Did the Japanese overplay their hand?

     

    I am adding some trading blocs as well, HTL.
    26 Mar 2014, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: I wish that $0.92 was (OTCPK:LYSCF) projected pps. I'm wondering if it's trying to overtake (OTCQX:GWMGF)!

     

    HardToLove
    26 Mar 2014, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    A balanced article on REE recycling:

     

    http://bit.ly/1eR3Bso

     

    "So what do we learn from this? It is a little hard to say, as the conclusions are a bit mixed. First, an automated recycling process (such as the shredder method) is likely to be uneconomical due to the high neodymium losses, while a method that involves disassembly will only be economic if wages are low. On the surface, then, recycling doesn't look like an automatic win."
    26 Mar 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Rare earth prices to fade as China loses dispute, mines raise output

     

    Mar 26 2014, 15:38 ET

     

    --Analysts say rare earth elements will continue to fall this year after China loses a trade dispute over its export controls, as new mines boost output and while demand in high tech products disappoints.

     

    --A price war could break out after the U.S., EU and Japan won their case over export restrictions they said gave Chinese companies an unfair competitive edge in key sectors, says Ryan Castilloux of Adamas Intelligence; China's "only tangible defense becomes competing head-to-head on price with emerging global producers.

     

    --Investors already are concerned about excess supply as Molycorp (MCP -3%) and Lynas (LYSCF -12.5%) boost output at their new mines; MCP aims to boost output to 20K metric tons/year after producing ~1K metric tons in Q4 2013.
    Also: REE -0.6%, AVL -2.4%, GMO -3.7%.
    26 Mar 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    @Maya: I think the analyst have it wrong, as they often tend to be wrong about a lot of things. There was a reply to the article on Investor Intel about the "WTO Case Against China Will Have the Opposite Effect" (above) that I think is correct, I have copied it here for everyone's convenience.

     

    Michael Roat said on Investor Intel on March 27, 2014 at 8:33 AM: "Repealing the export quotas will have no effect. China is simply not producing the amount of rare earths needed to satisfy ROW demand. It is almost comical the U.S. and WTO think by eliminating an arbitrary quota enough rare earth will spring into existence. China is stepping down from their role as the world supplier of rare earths and it seems little can be done, hence the absolute need for new producers, such as Molycorp. Unless the WTO can demand China increase it’s production quotas, which I highly doubt because it is for one imperialistic, and two detrimental to the environment and pollution in China, this is the path industry is on. If China were still producing massive amounts of rare earth and refusing to export any, the WTO would have a point, but that is not the case."

     

    - See more at: http://bit.ly/1o3Yqf8
    27 Mar 2014, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Motion! I damned near capitulated yesterday, and today's 25% gain is most certainly welcomed, even if it's on crappy volume.

     

    Congrats, HTL and Trip, on some great bottom fishing.
    27 Mar 2014, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I'm suspecting that today may be just low volume because the important money thought they might wait a bit?

     

    I'm hoping this gap up open tuns out to be the start of a little higher move, with some volume appearing.

     

    'Course, we got to wade through those taking profits first. But the buy:sell ATM is very well-balanced (75K vs. 80K), so maybe it won't take too long. Some early weakness on the ask has dissipated and they are now back up to where they were at the open - $0.209. Only two MMs, INTL and NITE, showing at that level.

     

    Bids started the day at $0.20 and now $0.201, but only one MM showing there for 20K.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2014, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Good points, but with the low volumes for quite a stretch of time, if the big boyz start buying Lynas as production ramps, I don't think there will be enough profit takers to offset buyers.

     

    Hopium hat on...
    27 Mar 2014, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    I like the fact that they are finally getting close to nameplate capacity. But what counts is profitability.
    27 Mar 2014, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    I agree Maya. It's slow this morning, but the trades have been erratically stepping up. Started the day at $0.195, then 13 trades at $0.20, then $0.209 ... currently putzing around with $0.202x and a bit higher off and on.

     

    I've noticed that weakness often comes later in the day though as some sellers start hitting the bids, which are still $0.201. But now we've 3 MMs showing there - add 2x2.5K to the 20K that's still there.

     

    So maybe the weakness will be weaker, rather than stronger, today? :-))

     

    BTW, 195K now.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2014, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Yes, congrats to TB and HTL! I was still in "wait and see mode" so stayed on the sidelines, but for a little while there I was in #&@?% mode.
    27 Mar 2014, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motionstream: " I was in #&@?% mode."

     

    Can't count the number of times I've been in that mode as the learning seems to *never* end.

     

    What I learned best, so far anyway, is to not have a " I was in #&@?% mode" any more.

     

    Now it's *shrug*, "Not the first, won't be the last, do better next time".

     

    Reduces the gnashing of teeth for sure! :-))

     

    I was pleased today to see some volume finally start to come in as bids rose, finally, to $0.202 and trades later in the day went at $0.209 again - six of the last eight and the buy:sell ended at ~118K:~123.5K. At 13:10 at was about 75K:97K, so a nice little improvement later in the day.

     

    This is opposite of what I had recently seen where sellers started lowering asks and hitting bids later in the day.

     

    So I'm still in the mode of thinking there might be a little steam left in the move - $0.22 and $0.24 look doable. Both are potential resistance I think, but can't tell how strong as they've not been tested. But $0.24 also has an unfilled gap associated with it and the gap extremes often provided some support or resistance, depending on move direction. So I guess we could consider $0.24 as if it had been tested.

     

    Regardless, we are seemingly so tightly coupled so often to what the Aussies do, that I just think whatever happens overnight there will *usually* happen here.

     

    So, I'm thinking Aussie $ might start to ease back in and give us more here than I hoped for. That volume down there last night hadn't been seen for a *long* time.

     

    Maybe some Aussie pride welling up? :-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToiLove
    27 Mar 2014, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Maybe, I just hope the Aussie pride is there when Lynas announces there next round of funding. That should be interesting.
    27 Mar 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    HTL: I was reading an article last night on HBR that struck a cord with me regarding Lynas and the REE space.

     

    Transformation Is an Era, Not an Event:

     

    William L. McComb, former CEO of Fifth & Pacific Companies (formerly Liz Claiborne) from 2006 through 2013, said: "Two other truths we discovered about embarking on an era of transformation: You should prepare people to see things get worse before they get better (especially because early moves—which will be assessed according to the metrics of the legacy model—will appear more mistaken than they are). And you must take a fresh look at the people you’re relying on. Accept that not everyone is cut out to thrive in conditions of ambiguity and adversity. Recast your team to be transformation-tough."

     

    http://bit.ly/1iHixKn

     

    I thinks this speaks to Lynas' situation both internally and externally. The analyst, business and news community is relying too heavily on legacy models and not paying attention to the right things. Lynas will surprise the short interests that are betting against it, it's a matter of when, not if IMO.
    28 Mar 2014, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    I hope Mr. McComb is correct. Makes sense to me, but I definitely want Lynas to succeed.
    28 Mar 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motionstream: excellent thoughts. In our case, I guess it's the transformation of China from heavy exporter to the ROW, their transformation into a higher internal consumption as they transition to high-tech mfg (as TB has been predicting), and supply ex-China just starting to become viable due to those, and the other factors we've seen.

     

    So it's not just Lynas and/or any individual company - it's the whole operating and financial environment that's transitioning.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Well, well, well, ...

     

    Better lucky sometimes.

     

    On the ASX last evening traded 43.5MM shares and closed at A$0.225! Price conversion suggests US $0.2077 today.

     

    Likely caused by "... confirm that commercial production and sales of Rare Earth Oxide (REO) products at the Lynas Advanced Material Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia for the March 2014 quarter will both be higher than the December 2013 quarter, consistent with guidance provided by Lynas at the end of January 2014.

     

    Chairman Nicholas Curtis , noting the decline in the Company’s share price since the release of the half year Financial Report on 11 March, said: “I wish to assure shareholders that while LAMP has been slower to ramp up than we would have liked, recent production is beginning to demonstrate sustainable momentum“.

     

    With one week left in March, I am delighted to say that we expect to report record production and sales volumes for both the month of March and for the March quarter".

     

    I also wish to affirm our guidance of achieving the target 11,000 tonnes per annum production run rate during the June quarter.”

     

    They then go on to confirm when data will be updated.

     

    http://bit.ly/1l5Cb3L

     

    Lynas also responded to a price query from ASX, but I suspect this didn't affect price much, if at all.
    http://bit.ly/OXfSST

     

    HardToLove
    27 Mar 2014, 06:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1m84uOW

     

    One take on this is that now China must resume unrestricted mining and processing of REEs...

     

    I disagree.

     

    What China will do is adhere to the policies which push forward its long term and very aggressive geopolitical plans. And there is nothing in the WTO rules which will prevent them from pursuing mining regulations to promote environmental protections and worker safety. Upholding a high standard in these areas will tend to cut rare earth supplies and support prices.

     

    On the other hand, China will still want to maintain a domestic price advantage... In the past this was installed from above by government fiat acting within a centrally planned economy run by a totalitarian state. In the future it is likely to be more nuanced, very much in the traditional European manner, with the government encouraging (and quietly installing) a massive Cartel centered around the major companies which already control about 50% of the world's REE supply chain and processing industry. They will move the other 40%+ into positions to serve the Cartel.

     

    Finally, we can expect the black market in REEs to shift focus toward serving the domestic demand first. This will also serve to insure that the home companies get lower prices than the Western foreigners. The fact that the "real" prices will be lower than the world market "published" prices will meet the geopolitical policy requirements while yet obeying the dictates of lame organizations like the WTO.

     

    What I don't see is any sign that REE exports will go up, though I do believe that prices will... And probably by a good bit.

     

    With the huge bulk of the full range, competent processing and refining utterly located in China, the important numbers in the near future will be how many tons are shipped INTO China, rather than how many tons of oxide or metal are shipped OUT.
    27 Mar 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Nice move on the stock this morning as a result of the announcement.
    27 Mar 2014, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    @tripleback: I agree that this by no means means China has to resume unrestricted mining. They have their production quotas in place which are holding steady at around 94,000 tonnes, and since they affect both domestic and foreign entities, wouldn't be subject to sanction via the WTO.

     

    If taxes and tariffs are eliminated, all other things being equal then we should see a decrease in prices for exported REEs and REE products, down towards current domestic China levels. For REEs like La and Ce where the price difference is fully accounted for by these taxes and tariffs, we should see price parity; but for others, where there is the mysterious "quota surcharge" on top, things are perhaps not so clear.

     

    Maybe the authorities will simply apply a uniform tax across all production…. or perhaps implement minimum price floors, across all sales, again to stay compliant with the WTO, but as a means of propping up the prices?
    27 Mar 2014, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Ack! A$0.215-A$0.232, close A$0.215 and volume down to ~13.9MM and closed at the low on reduced volume.

     

    Looks like we got a one-day wonder.

     

    That suggests a range today of US$0.196-US$0.215.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Well, taking a second look ... at the down under chart, maybe it's just a pause as it topped right at the high of a very short sideways move before the recent three steps down. It would be natural to get at least a pause there.

     

    Or range on the ASX trade completely above the 10-day SMA, which is still falling of course. If we just walk sideways a bit, preferably with rising lows, we could stretch our TA imaginations to envision a wimpy bullish (inverted) head and shoulders shaping up. I say wimpy because the shoulders (well, at least the potential left one we see now) lacks the needed "Schwarzneggar" configuration! :-))

     

    But there's other problems with the formation so I wouldn't bet on it.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 06:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I call this a pressure valve event which often occurs after a strong run down. It also features the departure of very short term momo.

     

    Insufficient to trigger much short coverage.

     

    Also a Friday pause, so that is involved.

     

    I am expecting to see analyst coverage next week as well.

     

    Finally, note that LYSDY was in arbitrage trailing LYSCF by a huge amount. I expect the ADR to move up more today, perhaps even with LYSCF.

     

    I was playing that arbitrage...
    28 Mar 2014, 08:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    We might have a sneaky preparation for a burst up over the next few ... days(?) setting up.

     

    Bids began at $0.18 today with offers at $0.21. Then:
    $0.1819/$0.207
    $0.182/$0.0204
    $0.186/$0.203
    $0.187/$0.203

     

    The quantity on the bids moved lockstep for the last couple of moves: 4 MM 1x20K 3x5K. As if no one wants to get left behind.

     

    The asks have been steady too 1x26K 1x2.5K.

     

    So, maybe it is just a pause?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Then bids went to 1x20K 4x5K on the $0.187 and stepped immediately to $0.188 1x20K 3x5K.

     

    Asks held steady.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Well, bids got to $0.189 and I couldn't resist 12.57% in two days. Risk on the blocks goes to zero. Wife happy!

     

    Got lunch money on the trading blocks.

     

    If it dips instead of going up, I might try it again.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1iKD8h8

     

    And so it begins...
    29 Mar 2014, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Interesting article by Jon Hykawy, the only problem with it is that it fails to mention his company's special interest in Molycorp. The article makes a few good points, but of course he takes a dig at Lynas with a bit of twisted logic to pump Molycorp.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hJa3iK
    29 Mar 2014, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    @motionstream: to what special interest are you referring? In case you didn't know, Jon is no longer with Byron Capital.
    30 Mar 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    @Garth I was not aware until now that he left Byron. However, What I do remember was the constant pumping of MCP while he was there. During that time Byron was making crazy pps projections well over $100 ps--as the price kept falling.
    30 Mar 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motion: before MCP hew was bullish on GWMGF too. So were a lot of us here.

     

    Thinks declined over the years a GWMGF management failed to come through as expected.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Mar 2014, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Yes, I remember GWMGF pump too. I held Great Western for a little while during that time, but got out before the bottom fell out of it. I still keep an eye on it and follow the conversations here. Tough to say what will become of them, I'm not counting them out yet. I think they will be bought eventually.

     

    During the bubble period, everything was being pumped by everyone with a pulse and a keyboard, so Byron was not alone, but they we're one of the most aggressive. The funny thing about Jon's article is the title: "The Hype Rises Again". The irony is not lost on me.
    31 Mar 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Nick Curtis' Lynas Corp stake keeps shrinking

     

    Nick Curtis is losing interest in rare-metals miner Lynas Corp, although it is not of his own volition. Curtis reported to the ASX on Thursday that he handed 10 million shares to Credit Suisse to settle a $4.319 million loan facility set up in April last year.

     

    http://bit.ly/1ht6u3Q
    31 Mar 2014, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5682) | Send Message
     
    Vale fears it could lose all of Guinea mine investment
    Vale (VALE +1.4%) warns for the first time it may lose its entire investment in the struggling Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea pending a review by the country's government.The venture has been hampered by logistical obstacles and later accusations that partner BSG Resources used bribes to acquire the mining rights it now shares with Vale; the Brazilian miner does not say whether its losses could exceed the $500M paid upfront to BSG in 2010.Vale recently posted its biggest quarterly loss since it went public in 1997.
    | 2:15 PM|3 Comments
    1 Apr 2014, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    There is an outbreak of disease going on there which could close the mines for lack of healthy workers.
    http://bit.ly/1mx95dI
    1 Apr 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (OTCPK:LYSCF), (OTCQX:LYSDY): Operations Update 4/1/2014. This is the corrected version which has the correct REO production number: "... production reached 575 tonnes in the month of March, 62% higher than the previous monthly record".

     

    http://bit.ly/1i9QpxC

     

    HardToLove
    1 Apr 2014, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To meet their June goals I had estimated that they needed to hit 518mt in March. This is good news.
    1 Apr 2014, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    I think they thought so down under as pps went as high as A$0.24, IIRC, before closing flat at A$0.21. But volume was high - ~29.2MM shares - and I expect the flat close was due to profit takers.

     

    This might set us up for a push up after a day or two of consolidation as straggling sellers finally get exhausted.

     

    Currency conversion suggest a flat U.S. price today - US$0.1939. Yesterday closed a bit lower here - US$0.1842. Pre-market bids/asks of $0.18/$0.205 suggest somthing around US$0.19 might be reasonable early on before the (typical ISTM) late-day weakness appears, as it did yesterday.

     

    N.B. Checking the ADVFN trades screen I see a 1MM share trade @ US$0.1991 at 08:00. But it's a "form t", so we don't know when it really happened or will happen. It's classified as "buy" as bid then was $0.1842 (likely nothing but the last trade from last night) and ask was $0.1948.

     

    It's volume is not shown on Power ETrade Pro L2.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    1 Apr 2014, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This gives us a rare opportunity to act ahead of the ASX. Its a short term buy opp if the news is picked up by media this week, and I suspect it will be in the Aussie market.

     

    575mt translates as roughly 11% better than the minimum 518 for March needed to hit Phase 1 nameplate by June. If they can maintain this pace, they should be close to 916.7mt/month rate by the end of May (I am projecting April for 709mt, and May for 920mt).
    1 Apr 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4293) | Send Message
     
    LYSCF vs LYSDY ... Big difference in reported trade volumes. LYSCF volume of 1,047,510 compared to 14,000 shares LYSDY.
    1 Apr 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    The release also says Lynas estimate to be cash flow neutral with a monthly sales rate of around 750 tones REO. Are they selling everything they can produce?

     

    If they are TB, and your projection for May holds, does this mean they will be in the Green by May?
    1 Apr 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Often the case. The OTC is widely traded by those who are not hit with high trading fees. I don't currently have an account where the fees are less than $50 per trade for ASX listings, so I use the ADR (and particularly when the arbitrage is so attractive).

     

    The two tend to even out in the long run.
    1 Apr 2014, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In theory. I am always cautious due to the many ways miners can find to spend money and have a true "all in" cost that is higher than their advertised "all in" number.

     

    Still, it does appear that they can sell what they are making, and at prices above FOP China.

     

    Also very good news, imo, but we need verification and I am hoping we see some media interviews soon with Lynas to flesh out the details.
    1 Apr 2014, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    This makes my day.
    1 Apr 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Mine too… I am deep underwater at something like .30, and am considering doubling down to decrease my average price per share to a position where I can make something sooner than later.
    1 Apr 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Almost 6 times normal volume for LYSCF today. Nice!
    1 Apr 2014, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We may see momentum shift from ASX (where it normally leads) to LYSCF for a while. This has not happened recently.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Great news Maya! Volume = interest. High volume = High interest. That's enough for me. I will be buying in big tomorrow to dilute those high priced shares I own.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Tomorrow morning I may be adding LYSCF... and AXPW.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Maya: 1MM of that was a pre-market trade at $0.1991 at 8:00:00.

     

    Subtracting that we had 151,826, below the 726.3K 10-day average through yesterday.

     

    W/o that trade, buy:sell was ~93.4K:~58.4K. Not bad at all. Didn't see any late-day weakness appear either.

     

    But that 1MM trade, combined with the volume excluding that trade keeps me wondering if the gap up may yet want to close.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Apr 2014, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Major move by someone and I would think it might be linked back to the ASX. This used to happen fairly regularly when news surprised the ASX and folks moved premarket NY to get their positions sorted out.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Good catch! Does this mean that only one other person knows what we know? ;-)

     

    REEs are so out of favor, so downtrodden; the media has completely forgotten about this subsector. I think we'll have some time yet to add or fire up new positions. A lot of investors were so burned by MCP and LYNAS...

     

    IIRC, I got lucky almost 3 years ago when I sold LYNAS for I think $2.19 and $1.89 to raise money to buy my home back in 2011.

     

    We just might be in for another run.
    1 Apr 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Maya: I wouldn't expect it to be as volatile, if for no reason than the fact that they are entering early production and will likely be judged less as a speculative play?

     

    'Course, the likely raise down the road will dampen enthusiasm a bit? Or could they surprise us a actually generate enough free cash flow to avoid that?

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2014, 05:26 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    HTL: "Or could they surprise us and actually generate enough free cash flow to avoid that?"

     

    Oh, please Lord, let it be so.

     

    Nice to see a few minnows start feeding again, but we need the whales to come back and feast.
    2 Apr 2014, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think we might be seeing a shift from the next funding round being for operating monies (short term, and probably relatively modest) to rolling everything into a major refi (restructuring of the two major loans, perhaps, plus some "cash out" for operating).

     

    Also on the table, though less likely imo: Development of the Duncan Deposit and separation facilities capable of handling critical/heavy elements. The longer the LAMP runs without any tolling contract for the building stockpile of critical/heavy byproduct, the more likely this option looks to me.
    2 Apr 2014, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Haven't heard much about the Bell Bay Pilot Plant proposal. Anyone know anything?

     

    http://bit.ly/16C9TnN
    2 Apr 2014, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1mxZC5J

     

    The Australian (reporting with the WSJ). This is the sort of media reporting I was hoping for. After a few more of these, I would not be surprised to see interviews with Lynas management down under.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic news, trip! Here we go....
    1 Apr 2014, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am hoping for big volume on the ASX tomorrow as well.
    1 Apr 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: Ah! That explains the 1MM pre-market. I guess we should ignore my concerns above! :-))

     

    If I had known they were leaking stuff to the WSJ ahead of the reports ...

     

    HardToLove
    1 Apr 2014, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We could see a lot of volume from Aussies trading Lynas "after hours" in NY if we enter an active news cycle. I also think we might see large selling just at the close of business if any big shorts want to setup a gap down to give them room to unload.

     

    If we see big volume on the ASX for LYC, it could easily be 20-30million shares, far bigger than what we see OTC (or OTC and ADR combined, for that matter) in NY.

     

    I monitor the daily short ASX report, and the LYC shorts have not been very high lately, so this is probably not happening at the moment (the short interest abated once the stock bottomed - itself an indication of a bottom, of course).
    1 Apr 2014, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: "... bottom ..." looking like it is or isn't :-))

     

    Volume dropped back last night, along w/price a wee bit. So looks like we didn't get to lead either.

     

    I wouldn't mind seeing that gap closed followed by the start of a grind up ... or even the heck with closing the gap - let's just start grinding up!

     

    But if it does go close the gap I'd like to see if I can get lucky twice in a row.

     

    Anyway, ~6.9MM shares closed at A$0.205 close, suggesting US$0.1895 today.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2014, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: ASX shorts for LYC popped from 220k yesterday to over 750k today. Any time you see about 10% of the trades in shorts, it has an impact on share price. I view this as "defensive". Had the shorts covered or remained quiet, the price would have gone up a good bit.

     

    We may also see some selling on LYSDY today as another example (less so on LYSCF, since I think the OTC is more "retail", while the ADR is controlled by a NY bank).

     

    Still waiting for a high volume break out down under. Last week I was pointing toward Thursday (ASX) trading as perhaps the most likely inflection point, short term.

     

    Now we see if the company's PR cranks up and adds some detail to the media narrative. The way media operates in Australia is less like New York, and more like a small town. Certain voices have much more influence than others, and we have not heard from them just yet.
    2 Apr 2014, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1gnNQWt

     

    I will be adding in the articles coming out over the next few days to monitor the "buzz". Most will, as this one does, repeat the same narrative contained in The Australian cited earlier.
    2 Apr 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/1gnRNuj
    2 Apr 2014, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    "Chief executive Eric Noyrez said the plant had demonstrated growth in production and sales volumes for four consecutive quarters."

     

    It will help a lot if they can keep this up.
    2 Apr 2014, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1myNVvA

     

    The Fools on Lynas, fresh headline.

     

    They want to wait until Lynas hits monthly production of 750mt before buying. At current rates of improvement, that might happen this month, so its not a long term watch involved...
    2 Apr 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Waiting till then to get in could be costly. Unless someone thinks they will not get there. I feel confident enough to take the risk. Have my broker looking to add some to my 401K account. My gamer account requires scuba tanks to inspect the stock certificates but I am not selling.
    2 Apr 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Doubleguns: Tough to really predict, but my gut tells me that the sp is not going to pop in the the near term. I hope I'm wrong, but I do expect some level of additional dilution. I'm staying conservative right now.
    2 Apr 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The last 2 funding rounds did, indeed, include some measure of shares made available to the home market in Australia (though the sums were relatively minor compared to the totals borrowed from Tokyo and New York).

     

    We can only surmise what happens this time, and when.
    2 Apr 2014, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    I was curious to check which strategic resources Crimea has besides offshore oil and gas and onshore salt. It turns out that the Crimeans have titanium which is useful for the aerospace industry in particular.
    http://bit.ly/1h7L2CX
    http://on.doi.gov/1h7L0uA
    I'll check into titanium as an investment idea.
    http://bit.ly/1h7L2Tn
    3 Apr 2014, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1grTgQ9

     

    Coverage downunder continues to grow.
    3 Apr 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    I'm not seeing much happening to the share price in Oz… do you think people are waiting for the offering? I thought we would see more of a press push to pump the stock before that offering… are we early?
    3 Apr 2014, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » NC's negotiating methods are usually kept quiet until agreements are signed, but he doesn't wait until the last minute to go looking for deals, either. I suspect he has been working on this for a while. I also suspect we can't really predict an "early" deal, whereas just computing when the company will run at out money is easier...

     

    With the improved price for their production, and the ramp up toward 11kmt/a showing clear progress, I would push back the time when they must find new funding another quarter, perhaps.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is what I posted earlier on this topic: "...we might be seeing a shift from the next funding round being for operating monies (short term, and probably relatively modest) to rolling everything into a major refi (restructuring of the two major loans, perhaps, plus some "cash out" for operating)..."

     

    With greater cash flow and a longer runway, the pressure to find a quick deal for operating cash fades, and they have more time to let the share price improve and their negotiating position for a larger deal gets more solid.

     

    So, yes, its likely that we are still "early" in this process.

     

    BUT as the Fools article says, they intend to enter the stock when the LAMP starts producing 750mt per month, which rate could be achieved in just a few weeks. I suspect the company would immediately issue a PR update announcing that news when it occurs, given this line in the sand.

     

    The rest of my earlier comment has added meaning now, too:

     

    "...Development of the Duncan Deposit and separation facilities capable of handling critical/heavy elements. The longer the LAMP runs without any tolling contract for the building stockpile of critical/heavy byproduct, the more likely this option looks to me."

     

    One way to lengthen the runway would be to start selling those REEs left over from the LAMP's process. That would require either a tolling contract with Soljay (who is signing up non-producing juniors to very long term contracts), which was the often cited concept from many onlookers a few years back... OR a similar arrangement with the only folks who can really do the job today, ie, China.

     

    Its one thing for Soljay to lay plans for 2025 production, and another for them to start buying feedstock for plants which aren't operating yet.

     

    Still, should Lynas get close to a cash crunch, I would expect movement on this issue.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Haven't heard much about the Bell Bay Pilot Plant proposal. Anyone know anything?

     

    Is this dead?
    4 Apr 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't know.
    4 Apr 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10664) | Send Message
     
    LYSCF only 3,000 shares of volume so far today? Less than $600?
    4 Apr 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    I doubled down a bit ago on (OTCQX:LYSDY) at .19.
    4 Apr 2014, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Interesting in light of this news:

     

    China shares close up on strong financials, rare earths:

     

    (Reuters) - China shares closed higher on Friday, buoyed by strong financials and a surge in rare earths, as investors speculated in growth in the sector, following surges in the recently opened rare earths exchange.

     

    The Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.7 percent at 2,058.83 points. The CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings rose 1 percent.

     

    Rare earth stocks posted major gains in the afternoon with China Minmetals Rare Earth Co Ltd up 10 percent and Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Group Hi-Tech Co Ltd up 3.8 percent.

     

    http://reut.rs/1hoJWg5
    4 Apr 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motion: I wonder if it will carry over to the ASX, which then carries over to the U.S. next morning.

     

    That would be a refreshing change - action in China boosting ROW miners and (any) refiners!

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Yes, refreshing and ironic given past history to run everyone else out of business. Life is full of twists and turns.
    4 Apr 2014, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Gareth Hatch wrote a thoughtful analysis about the WTO decision on China's control of pricing for REE's. http://bit.ly/1howCII

     

    The conclusion GH wrote states:
    "It should be noted that regardless of the outcome of the WTO dispute, downstream users of REE products in China, that incorporate these materials into components and other goods that are then exported from China, will still have a distinct advantage over downstream users outside of China. Apart from labor costs, exports of finished goods are eligible for a rebate on the 16% VAT paid on the original raw REE materials, a rebate that has not been given on exported raw materials since 2007."

     

    I do not understand this conclusion. If a product is manufactured outside of China, with rees mined and chemically produced outside of China, why would they be subject to a VAT of 16%? What body imposes this VAT tax? Is his statement limited to rees exported from China? and, does this contradict his earlier statement regarding export fees ( where WTO held China was not even handed in treatment):

     

    "While this is great news for end users of REEs, it is not particularly good news for the operators of existing REE mines outside of China, or the developers of new REE projects. Many developers have for some time been using erroneous price assumptions when reviewing the economics of their projects, since they have assumed that they could sell intermediate concentrates into China, at discounts to FOB / export prices. The reality is that such sales would have to be competitive to internally sourced concentrates, and so the correct approach is to discount in relation to domestic, not FOB / export prices. If the prices converge as a result of the elimination of export controls, then the ambiguity goes away, and we are left with similar prices regardless of the destination of the products."

     

    I hope someone with more understanding of this market will comment. Bottom line question: How should this impact Lynas and Molycorp? Have they been mispricing product?
    4 Apr 2014, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I hope Gareth will answer, OG, since his work created the question.
    4 Apr 2014, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB I'll write to him and see if he will be kind enough to answer my bottom line questions.
    4 Apr 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    @optionsgirl: the VAT mentioned in my article refers only to products produced in China. It is charged to the purchaser of the raw materials, whether they are used internally or are directly exported. If the materials are used internally to make, for example, magnets or polishing powders, and those finished goods are then exported, the VAT paid by the end user on the raw materials is refunded back to them.

     

    My understanding is that because this rebate is available to all end users in China that export finished goods, whether or not they are domestic- or foreign-owned, then there is no issue because the approach is evenhanded. Such finished goods are not subject to export quotas.

     

    The issue of FOB vs. domestic pricing in the later paragraph that you quoted, concerns the price decks that are used by juniors, in determining the assumed future values of their products. The typical assumption has been that they will sell a mixed REO concentrate, without specifying to whom such material will be sold. Given the lack of excess capacity for separation outside of China, the implicit assumption is that maybe the Chinese will buy it.

     

    However, such purchases would have to compete with internally sourced materials, which are purchased internally at some discount to domestic, not FOB / export prices. So those juniors who are assuming that their material will be sold into China, should be using a domestic, not an FOB price deck, from which to then discount to establish the value of their concentrate.

     

    Of course that assumes that folks in China will want to buy such concentrate in the first place; some of the juniors are going to have a rude awakening in this regard, given the lack of interest in such materials.

     

    As for Lynas and Molycorp, their processing is done outside of China, so they have the advantage of needing to compete with the FOB prices, not the domestic prices, assuming their customers are based outside of China. In the case of Molycorp, which may be transferring a portion of its material to its magnetic-materials operations in China, different mechanisms may apply.
    5 Apr 2014, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Thanks very much for your time and explanation.
    5 Apr 2014, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    On a related note, just spotted this today:

     

    EEC zeroes duties on rare-earth metals:

     

    MOSCOW, 4 April (BelTA) - The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has temporarily zeroed import customs duties on rare-earth metals. The decision was made by the EEC Council, BelTA learnt from the press service of the Commission.

     

    Import customs duties were zeroed with respect to such rare-earth metals as scandium and yttrium in their pure form, mixtures or alloys, the press service said. The zero rate will be in force from 1 May 2014 through 30 April 2015.

     

    “This measure is taken to reduce the deficit of scandium and yttrium in the Customs Union market. Since their production in the Customs Union is close to zero, this measure will facilitate the development of hi-tech industry in our countries,” said Minister for Trade of the Eurasian Economic Commission Andrei Slepnev.

     

    http://bit.ly/1hgtk05
    5 Apr 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    Although high risk, EMC Metals is a pure scandium play.
    It's a Canadian company. It owns 50% and hopefully soon 100% of an eight billion dollar deposit of scandium in Australia.
    Currently, it has a 5 million dollar market cap.
    Potential problems are raising money since it has such a low market cap and the current junior miner bear market.
    5 Apr 2014, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Motion: Good catch, I too see a link between the WTO finding, China's positioning, and this move by the EEC. Very interesting.
    6 Apr 2014, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1q7YGp6

     

    This reinforces the view that China still has control and can both meet a negotiated arrangement with the WTO and achieve their geopolitical goals at the same time...
    6 Apr 2014, 07:42 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Jimp: I've kept half an eye on EMC for the last few years and I have to say that I've grown skeptical in their ability to execute. It's worthwhile to watch EMC from the sidelines as I believe there will be strong demand for scandium sometime in the future--the question is when?

     

    Bloom Energy and Airbus have made statements about the future need for scandium, but the supply needs to be there. My guess is that it will take another decade before this happens. There are a few other players to watch as well:

     

    Metallica Minerals (OTCQX:EORBF).

     

    Orbite Aluminae said that they have the ability to extract scandium and REEs as a byproduct of alumina processing. I think Orbite is worth keeping an eye on, but their capex has kept me on the sidelines. They will need to raise a lot more bucks to build out their infrastructure.
    6 Apr 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (702) | Send Message
     
    From John Kaiser regarding EMC Metals -

     

    "The year end financials have been filed and the balance sheet is no longer as ugly. Also, check out the GMV of the Nyngan deposit at $2,000/kg Sc2O3. The company is in a trap because it has a market cap of less than $5 million, but needs to raise $3 million by early June to secure unencumbered title to the Nyngan deposit. AUD $1.4 million is due to Jervois as the final payment, and $1.3 million to an entity associated with Bill Lupien who got me hooked on the scandium story in 2010. His Kudu Partners hedge fund is a major shareholder, so we hope he won't take Nyngan away from EMC, but business is business. EMC's problem is that it can only issue 25% of its stock without shareholder approval, which makes financing at current prices to solve the problem impossible. As usual the tire-kickers are lurking in the background hoping Lupien et al will acquire the property and flip it to them for a modest markup. I'm working on a speculative DCF which I'll publish next week, so this is
    a heads up to KRO members who already understand the nature of the scandium story and its potential. It is high risk, but if it were not you would not have a $9 billion deposit with an $800 rock value available for $5 million."

     

    I print the above as a testament to J. Kaisers's research
    and guidance. Anyone interested in the junior miner market & investing should take a look at his good work.
    6 Apr 2014, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    OK! I guess we must consider the gap up closed! It ranged from the high of 3/26, $0.175, to the low of 3/27, $0.195.

     

    Yesterday and today both bottomed at $0.175.

     

    From a TA-only perspective, that's one unit of "gravity" removed that "wants" to pull us down.

     

    But unless our brethren down under get busy, I still think we have some more room down.

     

    The only current TA indicator I see ATM that suggests up may be coming is the lower Bollinger has started to rise - currently at $0.1577 - and we are much nearer that than the upper limit at $0.2487.

     

    I wouldn't be surprised to see us touch that lower limit in a day or two.

     

    Got some powder ready to hope I strike it lucky again.

     

    If it doesn't get down there, my core will make me happy regardless.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    There's a very interesting comment on InvestorIntel posted by Michael Roat regarding Molycorp. Link is below (scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page).

     

    Michael Roat on April 6, 2014 at 3:50 AM said: "I admit to speculating, but there seems to be some boardroom drama at Molycorp..."

     

    http://bit.ly/1e2d3ve
    6 Apr 2014, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    China sells rare earth for absurdly low prices:

     

    "One yuan worth of rare earth elements, after rough processing, can be sold at around 10 yuan (US$1.60) to 20 yuan (US$3.25) at most, but once they are sold to Europe and the United States for deep processing, we need to spend 1,000 yuan (US$160) to buy them back," said Wang Jionghui, assistant president of China Minmetals Corporation.

     

    Such an imbalanced phenomenon has forced China to make up its mind to restructure the rare earth industry, implementing the quota system for rare earth as a control based on concerns over environmental protection and resources.

     

    The nation's way out is not integration of the rare earth industry, but on the transformation of rough processing into deep processing, said an unnamed senior executive of an Inner Mongolian rare earth enterprise.

     

    China has three major production bases for rare earth materials, and two major production systems. Following the government's policy, the industry has shown more density in recent years, but the downstream application sector has been progressing slowly.

     

    The sharp fluctuation in prices of rare earth elements has seriously dampened the downstream processing sector, thus making many rare earth firms prefer to sell the raw materials than selling processed products, insiders said.

     

    More here:

     

    http://bit.ly/1e4ceC3
    6 Apr 2014, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motion: Great find. I've not read it yet (playing catch up elsewhere ATM), but your synopsis leads to believe that China *needs* to support ROW production (to a certain level anyway) and deep processing if they want to see stable, and low, prices at home without a *lot* of government interference (additional taxes on exports, imports, etc.).

     

    'Course, I'm not all that knowledgeable on that stuff. But if their plan really is to get more high-tech industry forced in-country, they'll need price stability along with lower than ROW prices.

     

    Thanks for the article! Will be reading soon.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Just to clarify, it's not my synopsis, it's a pick up from the author's article. I think he makes a few good points which I copied above.
    7 Apr 2014, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://1.usa.gov/1hxjkJX

     

    One to bookmark for reference. Source of much information on the topic.
    7 Apr 2014, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB.
    7 Apr 2014, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    A$ going bonkers now, $0.9328, as US$ index tanks to $80.10.

     

    Down under last night closed flat and slightly reduced volume, so no help there. Currency conversion might give us a ha' penny.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Apr 2014, 07:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Was just looking over Lynas again. Q4 2013 (December) they showed a burn rate of $17.2mm/qtr. That was with negligible production and sales. I am thinking that Q1 2014 will be considerably lower burn rate (WAG about $10mm), and cash flow neutral for Q2 (WAG still a burn rate of about $5mm), with cash flow positive possible Q3 (but probably no profits, likely a small cash burn rate remaining).

     

    By the end of Q3 their cash of $74.7 as of the end of December will be depleted to about $59mm, assuming they do not dip into these monies to continue building LAMP's Phase 2 (which doubles the plant's nameplate capacity from 11kmt/a to 22kmt/a, of course).

     

    We should be hearing soon about any such plans, plus details and updates as to their ramp toward 11kmt/a.

     

    I believe they COULD stretch their current runway well into 2015, given the likely scenario on the table, but this would surprise me. What IS more likely is that the crafty NC will carefully pick his timing to arrange new financial underpinnings for the company, and therefore it is unlikely that they will let the cash burn process paint them into a tight corner.

     

    An announcement that another quarter of strong gains in production and shipments has been achieved will support the shares, and a followup when they hit 750mt rates (and a theoretical cash flow neutral point) will also be a positive development.

     

    As they approach zero cash burn and a firm track record of production, I expect the media emphasis to shift from surreal history lessons to forward looking analysis rooted in much more solid numbers.

     

    As always, this one MUST be viewed as a risky investment, and the individual is well-advised to do your own due diligence.
    8 Apr 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: "As they approach zero cash burn and a firm track record of production, I expect the media emphasis to shift from surreal history lessons to forward looking analysis rooted in much more solid numbers."

     

    And then they issue shares.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Apr 2014, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The need to issue some shares is definitely a possibility. In this case I don't think we can really guess precisely "when" this might happen, but the real question I like to answer is "why".

     

    Raising capital to build out Duncan or complete Phase 2 or similar endeavor would be one thing, whereas pulling in money to replace losses due to mismanagement or lack of sales is another.

     

    I suspect NC knows this, and will create a funding round that promises a great deal in terms of future results, rather than monies to pour into fixing past mistakes.

     

    Issuing shares is most likely if all they need is some money to polish off smaller projects and given them some operating flexibility. Revamping their debt with a whole new deal would be more expected, primarily because I look for something more dramatic in terms of the next round of plans from Lynas.
    8 Apr 2014, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    TB: "As they approach zero cash burn and a firm track record of production, I expect the media emphasis to shift from surreal history lessons to forward looking analysis rooted in much more solid numbers."

     

    HTL "And then they issue shares."

     

    ... and then it will be time to buy.
    8 Apr 2014, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maybe. Much depends upon events between now and then, and the "why" question's answer. I am usually unhappy with funding rounds where its apparent the company is just backfilling expenses which should not have happened, or which should be covered with recurring revenue streams.

     

    New development and creating income streams are both interesting reasons for funding rounds.
    8 Apr 2014, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1g6WfOG

     

    Looks like GWM is "getting real" with their plans for processing ore from SKK.

     

    I would call their idea of building their own separation plant "on hold" (and that's being kind, I almost wrote "dead").

     

    One wonders who the well known REE separator has signed an MOU with them, and for what terms. These details should be enlightening...

     

    None of this changes my view that the company is likely to be sold off, piece by piece, and shelving the plans for the South African separation facility just reinforces my opinion.
    9 Apr 2014, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Star Minerals Group?
    9 Apr 2014, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ignore the WTO, pay attention to China Incorporated...

     

    http://bit.ly/1hpmVyM
    11 Apr 2014, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jack talking about La Rochelle:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hprusO

     

    Aside from several mis-speaks (just ignore the odd small error, the overall piece is quite sound), this is a good overview and contains the data I have been seeking to add to the Concentrator (or at least, hints at the answers).

     

    GWM seems to have been talking to Soljay, so perhaps La Rochelle is where they are thinking of processing their SKK concentrate with a tolling agreement. With 4500mt/a capacity (though the news that Soljay has already inked an agreement with other juniors will, of course, cut into any capacity still laying around loose), this is an interesting thing to ponder for smaller juniors with very rich ore like GWM. Their extremely high TREO percentage ore would maximize the bang for the buck with any tolling contract...

     

    Its odd that Jack does not mention the strong links between Soljay (nee Rhodia) and Lynas. Soljay was the primary designer and consultant for Lynas in building the LAMP, after all, and has been constantly mentioned as the likely toll contract partner for the REEs present in their ore which the LAMP is not geared to handle. This is one of the puzzles I have been tracking for some time, ie, Lynas' plans for tolling their rich REE content.

     

    If memory serves, Soljay also has several mothballed plants which might be used to process minerals.
    11 Apr 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1kQn1OP

     

    Note the first minerals to be traded on the new Baotou REE Exchange... This will affect the LAMP output pricing environment immediately.
    11 Apr 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB. I think this will be a net positive for Lynas long-term.
    11 Apr 2014, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    First time I have seen all green pricing on the Metals Pages twice in a row, Tuesday and Thursday of this last week,since 2011.
    A bottom may be in place for pricing of ore at least.
    For the stocks,as long as they don't go bankrupt,its hard to see them falling much farther.
    I could however be wrong.
    12 Apr 2014, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    An amazingly sensible decision on recycling rare earths from DoD: Don't

     

    "U.S. defense officials are not planning reclamation activities for rare earth materials due to cost concerns and indications that market conditions are improving, Pentagon acquisition chief Frank Kendall tells lawmakers in a recent report."

     

    http://bit.ly/1lWxrxI
    13 Apr 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A solid case for recycling exists when lofty prices and scarcity occurs. Absent those conditions, the motivation is also missing.

     

    Of course, good judgment and logic would demand that, given the geopolitical risks, they look into research which would make recycling technically feasible, and keep that capability in the "just in case" closet.

     

    LOL, I just accused the US DOD of "good judgment and logic", didn't I?

     

    Never mind.
    13 Apr 2014, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Yes TB,that is why "Military Intelligence" is an oxymoron.
    I think recycling has been a non starter since like forever for REE's.
    Very little silver has ever been recycled,despite its relatively higher price than REE's.
    13 Apr 2014, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5682) | Send Message
     
    Glencore Xstrata sells mine to China for $5.8 billion
    Analyst says acquisition is ‘not cheap’, but could still be profitable
    http://on.mktw.net/1eD...
    14 Apr 2014, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone remember when the Japanese were buying up assets like crazy. Even Pebble Beach Golf course. Short time later they were selling on the cheap.
    14 Apr 2014, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Of course, they were operating from a strange cultural bias (ie, the idea that American assets were "under-valued" when in reality, their viewpoints were skewed by the insane valuations they were putting on their own home island assets).

     

    And the Japanese were engaging in personal ego via private investments, whereas China is executing a cold blooded geopolitical plan to achieve world hegemony through government (and quasi-government) actions, including purchases like this one.

     

    The Japanese really did think Radio City Music Hall was a dirt cheap bargain and they would make huge profits. The Chinese suffer no such delusions with their plans, for profit is not their goal at all.
    14 Apr 2014, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Moved comment:

     

    Isn't that a fascinating deal, LT? The Chinese analyst's odd comment that "...the mine could still be profitable" is amazing.

     

    China continues to pursue their long term geopolitical goals with great energy.
    14 Apr 2014, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Long readers of this blog will note that I sometimes mention the arbitrage opportunities when LYSDY is markedly cheaper than LYSCF. This has happened fairly regularly of late...

     

    Today we are seeing the pair trade at a very low volume but at a considerable discount to the $.187 close (A$.20) on the ASX. With the American exchanges showing no strength and no leadership for the ASX, this just means we are now seeing the arbitrage play against both of them vs LYC.

     

    Adding a small trading bloc this afternoon...
    15 Apr 2014, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    China to Stockpile More Rare Earths, Huachuang Says:

     

    “The country will try to focus on streamlining and controlling domestic production, and buying up local supply of the medium-to-heavy rare earths will also reduce the supply that’s available for export,” said Peng from Huachuang Securities.

     

    http://bit.ly/1qOzOom
    17 Apr 2014, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    (OTCPK:LYSCF): Pre-market 500K @ $0.1757 traded. Based on last evening's ASX, reasonable price range.

     

    B/a at the time was $0.17/$0.175, so classified as a "buy".

     

    HardToLove
    17 Apr 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Time to start tracking the short action on the ASX...
    17 Apr 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    Short interest fell a couple percent on the initial plunge down to .18 and has been steady for a couple weeks in the 6.5% range or about 130M shares. Still enough for a decent short squeeze if we could get some heavy hands buying hard.

     

    http://bit.ly/TsLzSI

     

    I bought some LYSDY at .155 a couple weeks back but I am not sure how long I will wait around. My patients with "cheap" stocks has worn thin.
    17 Apr 2014, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1899) | Send Message
     
    patience...geeze.
    I actually bought because Jack started using Lynas and bankruptcy in the same sentence and about a week later the price dove well below what I was willing to pay for it a month before.
    TB, what do you think of the new CEO by the way?
    17 Apr 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » He's well qualified on paper, has the experience in the business, but he struggled on his first outing with communicating. Language barrier.

     

    I also think he had to figure out the corporate culture, following NC in the job with Curtis still hanging around as Chairman.

     

    Then he had to rebuild the LAMP because the original design was flawed.

     

    He needs to show us that he can handle a tough CC, and NC to boot. We'll see.
    17 Apr 2014, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    China stands tough on WTO rare earth issue and appeals ruling.

     

    http://bit.ly/1eQARCP
    18 Apr 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • nitroae23
    , contributor
    Comments (469) | Send Message
     
    Here's hoping China gets really tough with the WTO and drops another REE embargo on us.
    Not going to happen,but,to think a country as powerful as they are will ever submit to a ruling from an organization of countries that once (literally) forced opium down their throats at gunpoint two centuries ago,or who invaded their country last century,killing wantonly and subjecting Chinese POW's to hideous "scientific" experiments.
    I know the Chinese haven't forgotten,and I doubt they have forgiven.
    21 Apr 2014, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Possible new REE mine in Wyoming.

     

    http://bit.ly/QBiE0r
    21 Apr 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Typical low TREO (incomplete report, but about average for these types of deposits). Comparable to TAS, perhaps. But...

     

    What are the odds of them getting permission to open up a large open pit mine and chemical processing plant in the middle of a National Forest? Seems far-fetched. And startup by 2016? I don't think so. The average time it takes for a successful mining permit process AFTER filing initial paperwork is well over 11 years, and that was pre-Obama administration EPA. So, best case would be it cranks by 2025+. More likely, never.
    21 Apr 2014, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Maybe a senator named Reid is in on the deal or someone named Cheney. /s
    I would think that since some of it is on private land it gives it a better chance of success but skepticism is warranted for sure.
    21 Apr 2014, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    UN will now decide who mines the oceans? Scary!!!

     

    "Since 2001 the United Nations’ International Seabed Authority has issued 30 exploration permits for the Pacific, Mid-Atlantic and Indian Oceans. But the body says there has been a rush of late, with at least another seven ready to be issued."

     

    Full article on rare earth mining in the ocean but its the govt control by the UN that scares me and is the bigger story here in my opinion.

     

    http://bit.ly/QBofDZ
    21 Apr 2014, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Ho hum! "MALAYSIAN COURT CHALLENGE DISMISSED"

     

    End of the road for court challenges, as we suspected it would be. The good part is "with costs". Not much for (OTCPK:LYSCF) but nice anyway.

     

    Down to A$0.175 last evening with marginally better volume of 12.5MM traded. That's ~US$0.1638 today. I'm wondering if it's a good time to start another round-trip trade here. What's holding me back is thinking of what's yet to be done to cause any movement and macro junk.

     

    But China is set to ease reserve requirements for some smaller outlying banks, so maybe that helps the macro concerns a bit?

     

    http://bit.ly/1lylcWZ

     

    HardToLove
    22 Apr 2014, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1juMGKC

     

    ???

     

    Where in the dickens is Elon's gigabatteryfactory going to get the materials for its enormous requirements, 100% sourced in North America? Lithium, graphite... Cobalt? Do these numbers add up? I think not.
    22 Apr 2014, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1juN4J6

     

    "Formation Metals"? FMETF.
    22 Apr 2014, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://strib.mn/1juNVcC

     

    "PolyMet Mining"? PLM.
    22 Apr 2014, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Ploy to get government grants?
    22 Apr 2014, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, very likely. Smart PR, too. Also fits well with the general guvmint idea that mines are easy to summon up (from the ground itself, like a Shakespearean spirit). If one just has sufficient crony pull in Washington, "things" happen spontaneously.

     

    Great headlines now and tomorrow, and in 4 or 5 years, when the Cobalt is flowing in from slave mines in the Congo (just as it is today, btw), who will shine the media spotlight on the bloody feet of the hero?

     

    And yes, I expect taxpayer funding to flow like manna from heaven toward the gigabatteryfactory, regardless which of the 4 candidate states it lands in (I also think Nevada is most likely, if only because it is near the Cali Tesla factory.)
    22 Apr 2014, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    Maybe lithium coming from geothermal brine?
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    22 Apr 2014, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lithium is going to be available at scale (though strictly from North American sources is more doubtful), but cobalt? I doubt it, and I doubt the schedule as well.
    22 Apr 2014, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Rockwood Holdings (ROC) is one of the better North American lithium plays.
    22 Apr 2014, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Fairy Godmother Financiers and U.S. Government classify Molycorp as the one ‘too important to fail’

     

    http://bit.ly/1famfhk
    24 Apr 2014, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2211) | Send Message
     
    The government has a gripe about their lead- iron filter cakes.
    http://preview.tinyurl...
    27 Apr 2014, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    VB:: LoL! You posted the preview url! Takes a second click to get there.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2014, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    It's Alive!

     

    China’s rare earth exports surge 82.2% in first quarter:

     

    With the falling prices global demand for rare earth metals from China climbed in the first quarter. The export volume of rare earth ore, metals and mixtures in China which is the world’s biggest rare earth supplier has surged 82.2% year on year to 7,134 tons, valued at US$95.19 million in the first three months of this year according to the figures published by the China Customs Statistics Information Centre on March 21th.

     

    http://bit.ly/1fbRVDb
    24 Apr 2014, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Interesting. It would appear that stockpiles are depleting and smuggling has decreased.

     

    Needless to say, demand appears to have recovered somewhat as well.
    24 Apr 2014, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ASX is closed Tomorrow (ANZAC day). NY gets to lead with news again...
    24 Apr 2014, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, anyone who doubts how much aussie traders account for daily activity for LYSCF in NY, should look at the near-zero activity today. Even given very positive news, LYSCF has no legs without Australians making moves here.
    25 Apr 2014, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: Yesterday was near-zero too, 31,540 shares all day.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Apr 2014, 12:47 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5682) | Send Message
     
    Guinea revokes mining licenses for Vale joint venture
    The government of Guinea has revoked mining licenses for Vale's (VALE) joint venture, ending the company's troubled quest to mine iron ore from the Simandou mountains, which are thought to hold some of the world's last major undeveloped deposits of high-quality iron ore.Vale's next step is unclear, but the world's top iron ore producer is not necessarily barred from future mining licenses in Guinea.The book value of Vale's stake in the venture stood at $1.1B at the end of last year.
    26 Apr 2014, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Just because you're within the inner circle of cronies back home, doesn't mean that the local Crony Socialist/Capitalist state likes you.
    26 Apr 2014, 05:57 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Good read:

     

    Night of the Living Dead Miners: Rare Earth 'Zombies' Attack the ASX and TSX:

     

    http://bit.ly/1nSbjF3
    27 Apr 2014, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Motionstream: excellent article. Now we just need an accomplished composer and lyricist who cam put the following into thought into a form that once heard gets snagge in your head.

     

    "We contend that at some point in the near future, non-Sino sources of specialty metals will actually command a premium to the quoted market price because ensured supply will trump price concerns. The arms race in Asia, which the western press has been studiously ignoring, is accelerating and will exacerbate this situation".

     

    Music to my ears if true!

     

    HardToLove
    27 Apr 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it seems we're already on that path.

     

    I've been in Alkane for some time. Good management and shareholder friendly. I think it's undervalued here.
    28 Apr 2014, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Researchers see rare-earth-like magnetic properties in iron:

     

    (Phys.org) —Scientists at the Department of Energy's Ames Laboratory have observed magnetic properties typically associated with those observed in rare-earth elements in iron. These properties are observed in a new iron based compound that does not contain rare earth elements, when the iron atom is positioned between two nitrogen atoms. The discovery opens the possibility of using iron to provide both the magnetism and permanence in high-strength permanent magnets, like those used in direct-drive wind turbines or electric motors in hybrid cars. The results appeared in Nature Communications.

     

    http://bit.ly/1kc5RsY
    29 Apr 2014, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The first time I saw speculation about this was the world science fiction convention I attended in 1971. It was the topic of a lively blue sky discussion, and some of us thought it meant some amazing things coming very soon...

     

    It would seem that the same folks are still looking into the same idea over 4 decades later. I think this should always happen (the bit about the 2 nitrogen atoms seems new to me, but otherwise it rings very familiar), that this sort of research continues, but its always good to remember that sometimes they don't pan out, or take a LOT longer than anyone thought at the outset.
    29 Apr 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • motionstream
    , contributor
    Comments (391) | Send Message
     
    Good reporting on China REEs and WTO ruling:

     

    China’s Rare Earths Advantage:

     

    "While the EU’s enthusiasm for the ruling is understandable, given that it has staked the revival of its manufacturing sector on “clean” high-tech products that nevertheless use dirty-to-mine REEs for which it has no domestic source; within the Chinese REE industry itself the ruling has ruffled few feathers.

     

    The Chinese REE sector in the last two years has become so inward looking that it hasn’t actually even met the restrictive export quotas put in place by the Chinese government"

     

    http://bit.ly/1kc9WNI
    29 Apr 2014, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    April 29 - (OTCQX:LYSDY) is in a trading halt pending an announcement. I suspect it's the financing deal we knew was coming.
    29 Apr 2014, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Looks, so far, like it's just the quarterly cash and progress reports.

     

    Available in the ASX already, but can't get them at the Lynas site yet.

     

    http://bit.ly/R25fPn

     

    HardToLove
    30 Apr 2014, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The ASX announcement mentions a financing announcement. I doubt that refers to the quarterlies.

     

    Hot Copper is on fire with speculation.
    30 Apr 2014, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: I missed that. The quarterlies don't mention one. That's what I get for not reading the halt announcement itself.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Apr 2014, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We got your back, HTL.
    30 Apr 2014, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/QZCxia

     

    Lynas cash flow statement.
    30 Apr 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    TB: Expecting any particular bias on the financing arrangement? I was wondering now that Phase one looks to be good and Phase coming on-line over the next quarter, they might get good results? The 5% increase in their average basket sell price seems to be a positive.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Apr 2014, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just ran some preliminary numbers. It looks like they might bring in about $48million this quarter, barring incident, perhaps more (I view the big jump in REE demand - ie, exports from China - as perhaps favorable in this regard).

     

    This puts them close to cash flow neutral for the quarter (particularly considering what is already in the till for April).

     

    Of course, it is all just background noise compared to speculation about the funding announcement. For that, we wait.
    30 Apr 2014, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Apr 2014, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: All in line with expectations, although they spent more finishing off Phase 2 (all restricted funds gone now) and are looking aggressive with their production ramp (which we knew from the monthly updates and the big jump in production recently).

     

    I believe they will be close to revenue neutral this quarter. Note that they cut the principal amount they owe Sojitz by $10million, too, so their balance sheet is a little cleaner than it was.

     

    I guessed my guesses earlier in this blog (back in March) as to what we could expect with funding, ie:

     

    1. Earlier rather than later (given the aggressive buildout and ramp, it looks like they have had a deal in hand for quite some time, else they would have been playing defense and running from stockpiled ore instead of what they have been doing

     

    2. Larger rather than smaller (small being short term operating funds, which could probably be handled with some sort of revolving facility, large being much more likely to include rolling over one or both of their large prior rounds into a new package)

     

    3. Probably including more dilution, though not a huge percentage (company already has well over 1 billion shares extant), probably via another Australian only offering to the public

     

    4. Less likely - a huge deal with e very ambitious set of new plans to develop Duncan and perhaps even build out a WA separation plant for a wider range of critical/heavy REEs
    30 Apr 2014, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (986) | Send Message
     
    Lynas has suspended trading until next Tuesday because of the pending release of an announcement regarding a proposed financial transaction.
    1 May 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/1kuMA7n
    2 May 2014, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Miochigan takes another small hit? "Great Western Minerals Announces Subsidiary Asset Sale"

     

    "The GWMG Board of Directors approved the GWTI closing and redundant asset liquidation on March 20, 2014".

     

    However, "Pursuant to the GWTI lease agreement, the Company is required to restore the facility back to its original state. In exchange for payment, the purchaser will take on that liability, assume the GWTI lease obligations and provide employment opportunities to GWTI employees".

     

    http://mwne.ws/1lRijmj

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2014, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe I might have mentioned my belief that GWM was going to sell off in pieces for the last several years or so...

     

    Anyway, this looks like the new owners might be intending to operate the GWTI facility intact, ie "...and provide employment opportunities to GWTI employees".
    5 May 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13591) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This could also reflect new DOD policy regarding US content in sensitive strategic gear (ie, the morons are now committed to trusting foreigners like Red China to build the gear for us). Reference, LOL, the pieces we linked to in the QC over the past few years where they were patting themselves on the back because they had a new DNA tagging system that would insure that they could track a component back to the precise Red Army slave shop it was built in...

     

    Its surreal.
    5 May 2014, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5040) | Send Message
     
    Great Western reports May 12th.
    5 May 2014, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone believe the (OTCPK:LYSCF) financing could be so bad that Lynas is worth $0.13, -12.85%, per share while (OTCQX:GWMGF) "rockets" to $0.09, +9.76%?

     

    Odd world we inhabit?

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6261) | Send Message
     
    Looks like someone has the (OTCQX:LYSDY) financing news before its officially released. Down 23% so far. I may as well as thrown my investment money in the trash can. Sigh…
    5 May 2014, 02:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18495) | Send Message
     
    FPA: Maybe not? Maybe it's fear of dilution alone and when the details come out some other route was taken to securing needed financing.

     

    Some that crossed my mind were off-take agreements which should be attractive to customers if they really are worried about secure ex-China supply. Another was low-rate loans secured by hard-assets. A last was sale of some assets that seem to be not feasible to develop near-term with the market and cash position what it is.

     

    This would give snake Nick C. the excuse needed to sell Royal to the other company he was involved with.

     

    HardToLove
    5 May 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8712) | Send Message
     
    Rattie, if you look to the other end of the life boat you will see me. I am in the life boat with you. My share price is 84 cents so just keep bailing water till we get through the storm, or sink but at least we didn't jump over board when the storm might almost be over.

     

    There is nothing to smile about at this point but hopefully lots to look forward to.....I hope.....but I am not doubling down even at this point, just bailing water.
    5 May 2014, 02:22 PM Reply