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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, 2-22-2012 148 comments
    Feb 22, 2012 9:19 AM

    "Black Swan" copyright stan bruns 2011

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » China has a new REE plan:

     

    http://bit.ly/ylkzGL

     

    This one is a must read.
    22 Feb 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Seems a bit ambitious for the proposed time line. I wonder how that plays into the WTO regulatory scheme. There are complaints now just wait until this reduces world supply even more.
    22 Feb 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I see it as an attempt to shift exports from raw materials to finished manufactured goods based on those raw materials. I don't see how the WTO can argue with a country reducing exports of raw materials when it needs its own raw materials to build things.

     

    All government officials in the US should be required to read Alexander Hamilton's report on the subject of manufactures (1791).

     

    If Lynas comes on-line, I suspect it will hurt their plans to capture more advanced manufacturing, and its associated technology. So it's in their interests to stop/ delay Lynas.
    22 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/wacECv

     

    Lynas has just posted this response to the Malay luddites on the ASX site. Not surprisingly, they plan to protect their interests.

     

    LYC is down about a nickel right now. My current buy target (if I wanted to be even more overweight this stock, which I don't) is $1.20.
    22 Feb 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Monitoring the ASX tonight...

     

    LYC is down some more, off A$.063 now...

     

    This is taking us toward my current buy target, far too close for comfort.

     

    Tomorrow will be decision point for Lynas, whether to hold through the correction or take profits (selling about 70% of my shares which are yet in the black) and see what happens in March and April.
    22 Feb 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Rare Earth Metal ETF Producers For The Inevitable Pullback In Risk Assets. a recent article on SA

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Feb 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the link, jimp. I don't use the REMX as a proxy for the rare earth sector because it is primarily composed of companies which have nothing to do with RE's. Even so, it can represent at least a fuzzy connection...

     

    The details about the new plan from China is posted as the #1 entry on this blog, so I cannot disagree with him that it should be studied by anyone investing in this sector. However, I found his article disjointed. Just about the time I saw the chart (yep, it shows just what he talked about) and was beginning to get mildly interested in what he might have to say, it ended. Chop.

     

    We have been pointing toward this point in time for nearly a year. Those like me that have been squirreling away dry powder in anticipation of a correction (probably a mile one, 10-15%) next month aren't really arguing with this sort of thinking, of course, but what is needed now is some help for further defining things.

     

    I still have some profits to trim and some decisions to make as to what I intend to carry through the coming correction, and what I will transform into cash short term. I just posted a similar comment over on the QC, so at the risk of repeating things, I have elected to stick with a small handful of stocks with the potential to pop despite a correction (Lynas, GWM, MCP, Sandstorm, and a very few others) because of their likely reaction to news events.
    22 Feb 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I meant to post regarding potential for volatility/weakness in the Australian market-at-large. I should have taken the time. This weighed on my decision to greatly reduced Lynas a couple weeks back and I failed to post reasoning. My apologies. We are seeing some of this last week or so down there. Markets hate uncertainty...of course.
    Then again...how often do I get it right? ...So if I had have posted....some of you may have viewed that as a buy signal and be seeing more red right now!!
    22 Feb 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/A9geAp

     

    Lynas has released their 2011 financial data. CC starts in a few minutes...
    23 Feb 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. I know it's hectic keeping track of who's on first but that is Molycorp's (MCP) earnings. LOL. Looks like they did alright though. I'm sure the numbers are somewhat "Adjusted." but it is still a good report.
    23 Feb 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, yes, MCP it is. Trying to figure out the CC now...
    23 Feb 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Overnight in Oz, Lynas hit a high of AU$1.30, and Alkane hit a high of AU$1.415 prompting Alkane to issue a letter speculating that the price spike could be because of recent presentations they made in NY, Toronto and London, a mention on Oz TV -- plus a WSJ article about a joint venture with Newmont on a gold deposit.

     

    In US$, Lynas closed at 1.38 and Alkane at 1.425.
    24 Feb 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    BTW, Newmont owns 51% of this gold deposit (McPhillamys) and Alkane owns 49%.

     

    http://on.wsj.com/wnraxn
    24 Feb 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/yu8cVq

     

    Update on old favorite GDLNF Greenland Minerals (I have been trading this one for nearly 2 years, including current trade which I plan to sell @.53).

     

    Thanks to OG for the link.
    24 Feb 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    MCP transcript.

     

    Stock is trading off about 5% today on the news. I doubt it will dip low enough to interest me (I am still accumulating MCP preferred around $60).
    24 Feb 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4603) | Send Message
     
    Mind sharing what you figured out on the CC ? and also how low is the MCPa preferred going? Still looking for an entry point on them.
    24 Feb 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Check further comments below...
    24 Feb 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh, and the MCP news affecting the stock price this morning is that JPM has dropped guidance again to $27.
    24 Feb 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas gapped up $.07 this morning, looks better, does anyone have a read explaining this (not that I am complaining)?

     

    IF MCP preferred hits under $62, I may add a few more shares...
    24 Feb 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, dipped to $61.x, added MCP while I was posting here on SA...

     

    Lurking around $60 for a deeper spike if it happens...
    24 Feb 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4603) | Send Message
     
    don't worry about JPM downgrade....they downgraded CHK at 22 down to less than $15 and now CHK at $25
    24 Feb 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The Moly Friday trade reflects a lack of conviction in the new plan. Anyone have reasoning to go with the JPM downgrade? By itself, the downgrade means little to me. I just wonder if anyone has more numbers or new information to support or question the new Moly approach?
    25 Feb 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/xLNSl0

     

    Mickey's latest recommendation, Strathmore U.

     

    I have been brushing off my older Uranium notes (shelved when Japan's UD reactors popped), though I still have some shares of URRE in the sock drawer...

     

    Time to get active in the strategic minerals sector is coming soon, maybe next month...
    24 Feb 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Check out Uravan (UVN or URVNF), around $0.20. John Kaiser likes it as a long term long shot. It's a "story" stock - a possible new way of finding uranium..
    25 Feb 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome back, elwodo. Good to see you again.

     

    I am dusting off my U files, and hoping to find some buys over the next 6 weeks...

     

    I'll look at URVNF. I frequently disagree with Kaiser, but I like to have his take on things regardless.
    25 Feb 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB, I'm still hanging in there, but got too busy earning a living to check in recently. I finally gave up on Quest, at least in the current time horizon, but continue to have high hopes for MAT and EMC. I always enjoy this board, even though I'm an agnostic when it comes to Lynas/Great Western/Moly debates.
    26 Feb 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its still a blog for REE/Strategic Minerals, though I know the 3 most active get the most attention.

     

    I made money on QRM, but I haven't traded it in a while (though I still monitor it). Same with AVL. Both have fallen back and are now bumping along at a lower energy level.
    26 Feb 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    Good to see ya.
    I like two of the stocks you mentioned.
    I like Quest because the resource is just too good to ignore. I do think they will require a lot of cap ex. But if you believe in rare earths as commodities, I can't see how anyone can ignore Quest long term. I do not own them now, but I would buy them when they are funded. Obviously, I'll have a lot higher cost basis than you.

     

    I also like Matamec. I think there approach is good. They have the right practical approach IMO. Juniors rarely error to the side of pragmatism in their pipe dream worlds. So when the critique is that a junior is "too pragmatic and gave away too much to develop" I think that should be music to the shareholder's ears. It is still a long road for them, but I'd say they are a good choice.

     

    EMC is not bad IMO, I just like Metallica Minerals Ltd (MLMZF) better. These are two of the better Scandium prospects. I like Scandium as a commodity and am sure the market will develop. But I would either need to see a stronger macro economy, new ROW markets for Scandium increasing, or a shorter timeline. All of these things are already happening right now. ANd if the pace picks up I'll jump in.

     

    I think you have a valid point about the dominance of the discussion in the big three. I am the biggest "big 3 big mouth" so I take the point as a constructive comment. For now, with the first movers getting near production, I doubt that will change much. But I do enjoy the other stocks too and would love to see REE prices improve so the explorers would look like better short term plays to me. I still like many of them long term (MAT, NTU, ALK, and QRM to name a few). I also like UAMY and GALXF too.
    27 Feb 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    I ddn't mean to discourage discussion of the "big 3". I'm sure if I was in them i would value all of the comments. I just don't happen to be in them. We are in agreement on Quest. I'm totally out of it (made some $, but was too stuborn to have made as much as I could have), but am keeping an eye on it. You might want to take another look at EMC. I don't know what you think of Kaiser, but he is negative on Metallica. EMC is due to deliver its feasibility study by toomorrow and I have hopes the market will react favorably.
    27 Feb 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    ellwodo,
    I don't think you did that's why I described it as a "constructive comment".

     

    I respect Kaiser's research. I do think he has an American bias due to his thirst for disclosure and details, but I can't fault that view either. Of the "experts" he is far ahead of the others IMO. He just does more work and it shows.

     

    I do know that he likes EMC over MLM and I do disagree (as Chi feels the ice cracking below him :-)). I think our main difference is his science foundation versus my more market based approach. He underestimates MLM's long term project investments which I prefer to cash in the current environment. I also am far more concerned about EMC' interaction with Jervois.

     

    And I prefer the MLM management as well. Gilies seems to have a marketwise approach and I'm confident he and his team can build a strong Scandium market for MLM. I was not big on EMC's recent sale and the Jervois issue casts doubt on EMC management for me.

     

    That said Scandium is valuable enough for both to win and as either reaches production I am not opposed to owning both down the road.
    27 Feb 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Just finished the Moly call. I was on out on business this week. The call was better than many and lacking elsewhere.
    The first thing I will note is the best questions by far came from Strategist. Yes, he has progressed in his understanding and it was reflected in the call. But it also exposed how limited the knowledge in the top firms is in our field as well.

     

    Many of us have tried to invest based on our knowledge and have been surprised by short term movements at times. This has led some to conclude the big boys know more than us. My conclusion is the opposite. They control the market based on the size of their trades, but obviously do not understand the market well as a whole IMO. This likely will create opportunities going forward long term, but it will make "the heard view" even more the issue with short term trading.

     

    Lynasheads will note the distinction made in the call between the under $3 cost of production number in the old slide Moly has used to compare themselves with Lynas and China. Moly now admits that $3 number ignores a number of factors (amaetoriztion, investment, ect) and seems to be only the raw input per kilogram of production. Also the current "apples to apples number is $6-$12, while the full number is currently $20/kg. Smith says China costs with environmental regulation are going to around $10 according to his contacts. But now the big question is was Lynas' $10.11 comparison to Moly's $2.77 an apples to apples comparison?
    http://bit.ly/yfOp0q
    It's hard to know, but in any case, the margin in Lynas' basket clearly will eat up any Moly cost advantage using a China or ROW price structure.
    So the final takeaways from the call for me are:
    - Moly costs are going up like others in the field (and Moly hopes the new technologies when ready will bring the costs back down).
    - Moly gave hope for future REE pricing by suggesting some low tech industry has moved into China reducing the outside China demand temporarily.
    - Pricing has also been affected seasonally and if Moly is right we may be nearing a bottom in pricing.
    - Phoenix budget is growing but I can't tell by how much.
    - Phoenix is only on time for piece by piece use. And notably the more technologically advanced the piece the later it plugs into production.
    - Judging from Tolleson, the metal and alloy business is relatively easy to develop at fairly low costs especially when compared to mining and oxide production costs. And while this is expected to increase margins, I am starting to think these margins will consolidate quickly after ROW mining develops further. The barriers to entry on the metal and alloy side must be much less than the mining and oxide sides IMO.
    25 Feb 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Great post Hawk! Thank you.
    25 Feb 2012, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks, Chi, for providing the call headlines.
    mj
    25 Feb 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    A super summary Chi!

     

    Thank you!

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2012, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi: I believe you and I have always questioned Moly's cost numbers (made fun of them is what I have done in the past). Its good that they are finally cleaning them up, and bringing them closer to reality. LOL, if nothing else, it points to the difference between the expense of actually operating Mountain Pass and just running from old ore dug years ago...

     

    On the other hand, I have always included the assumption that Moly's costs would ultimately increase to something close to those of Lynas, so this doesn't alter my perception of MCP's value.

     

    I tend to agree that we are near a bottom in re prices, though I am less focused on seasonality (I'd need to see that one explained, particularly for global prices) than on the idea that the extra stocks released to the market as a result of China's cartelization are reaching a finish.

     

    I still say that Phoenix will only be "on time" when the whole thing is up and running and producing product (19kmt) per their schedule. Anything less will be a miss, and I still think they WILL miss, and by a goodly margin (though as someone who owns their stock I hope I am wrong). I would be tickled if they can hit nameplate production 3 months late, and unsurprised if they do so 6 months late. I have increased my appreciation for their efforts now that they have solved the NG pipeline dilemna with the LNG stopgap. I wonder if they can reach nameplate production levels using just LNG, however...

     

    Some of the magnet production at the end of the pipeline may be easy to produce, but there are proprietory and patent barriers for much of it (Hitachi, a prospective customer for MCP, is one of the chief competitors). If it tracks with much of the rest of the tech manufacturing sector, there is a strong divide between the lower entry level which is thoroughly commoditized, and the upper reaches where a qualitative difference (and market pricing power) seperates the oranges from the Apples. I have always wondered how the "...end products are where a lot of the profits lie..." logic expounded by many sector pundits was compiled. If its a generally true statement based upon an average of sorts, a company finding the bulk of its business at the lower end of the spectrum could find itself with cost issues, whereas one at the upper end might have superior profits.

     

    I'm still doubtful how Moly's shot at buying into the magnet maker end of the chain will ultimately work out, if only because it pits them into direct competition with their prime customers.
    25 Feb 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    The funny thing is Moly is more interesting to me admitting challenges than they ever were boasting till there was no oxygen left in the room. I would still rate them a sell based on valuation and poor execution IMO, but they do have a future.

     

    My only issue with the rise in the costs is these comments echo the Lynas comments made in the note by Lynas almost a year ago in March 2011 (footnoted in the Moly comparison slide under Lynas- Slide 15). I find it odd that Lynas was ahead in their cost comments by almost a year as a non-producer while Moly is late as a producer.

     

    Smith's China seasonality comment made some sense to me. He is essentially saying demand can't be gagged during the New Year shutdown. But implicitly he seems to suggest this year is worse because some low tech REE use went into China in H2 2011 and is now shut down during the New Year period. Add to this the fact that New Years would provide an excellent time for smugglers to get non-quota supply out and he might have a point especially for those smuggling from shut down mines.

     

    "I still say that Phoenix will only be "on time" when the whole thing is up and running and producing product (19kmt) per their schedule."
    That's the only view to take after the call IMO. Moly is rather vague about Q2 and Q3 production and suggests most of the annual production will be in Q4. I think the piecemeal approach will be successful in reducing commissioning times and if it allows Mountain Pass to stockpile the different stages of production that would be a great added bonus. But much of the logic and plausibility of the piecemeal additions is based on the low tech nature of the additions at each stage. This with Smith's caution about actual production in Q2 and Q3 makes the approach more modest and believable as well.

     

    I think quality levels will be a big part of future discussions at all stages For all of these companies. It essentially is already here:
    -Concentrate quality is measured by recovery rates.
    -Oxides will be measured by the number of 9's in the purity ( namely 99% verses 99.9999% purity). Note uses are often already effected by this oxide purity level.
    -Then Furnace capabilities are already being discussed on several levels (flake, alloys and purity).
    - And Neo conference calls are already about alloy and specialty metal qualities even now.
    - I agree that there is already technology and patents in this area that establish the top tier REE metal/magnet makers from the rest. And these guys will get the best margins. And I would further state this is the strength of the Japanese portion of the REE market.

     

    Smith also sounded more Lynas-like about production. He said that phase one will go to full operation from the beginning. But he also said the 40,000 tpa capacity of Phase 2 was not necessarily the normal operation level. In stead it is designed to be a capacity sufficient to create reliable supply for customers. This sounded more like Curtis who says LAMP phases will be built as customer contracts indicate they are needed. I think those with NPV's for 40,00tpa for Moly should listen to the Smith Q and A on the subject.

     

    Very little was said about the HREE deposit. I get the feeling the lawsuits focus on the cost issues and the HREE claims based on the call. Nothing was mentioned about the lawsuits but the approach toward costs and the HREE deposit suggests this is where some feel more transparency is needed.
    26 Feb 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    The Strategist hasn't written an MCP article in about 6 weeks. Will be interesting to read what he writes next.
    26 Feb 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Both companies are starting to get "real", and about time. Lynas has usually been more transparent about these topics, although I believe they, too, fell into the "max capacity promise" game as a response to Moly (it would be correct to say that "MCP started it" though). Smart companies in this game should NOT have a business plan requiring 100%+ utilization of capacity in order to make money. Much better would be a plan whereby 30-40% is a level for profitable operation, and each tier above that just ratchets up the gains. This is particularly important in a business where multiple individual elements are being produced, and any one may experience over-supply and depressed prices at some point in the future.
    26 Feb 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As for the Chinese New Year explaining a seasonal drop in rare earth prices...

     

    It would seem counterintuitive. Baogang Group announced a shutdown in production just before CNY, but continued its program of buying up loose rare earth metals on the Chinese domestic market for the Cartel's stockpile program.

     

    But your comment about an increase in re smuggling out of China (coinciding with the activities of the Cartel wiping out the small fry) makes lots of sense. Its probable that MCP, Lynas and the rest of the ex-China rare earth sector has just decided that talking about such goings on in China is counterproductive.
    26 Feb 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Pretty benign protest event in Kuantan… Expected… 20,000 Actual… 4-5k…

     

    Short protest ~ 1.5 hours quote from Star

     

    http://bit.ly/xMWvLA

     

    "10.50am: Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim arrives.

     

    11.00am: Protestors observe a minute's silence. Bersih 2.0 chairman Datuk S. Ambiga tells the crowd that Malaysians reject Lynas and those who support the project.

     

    11.20am: Anwar tells crowd that PR will cancel the Lynas project once they take over Putrajaya, will defend all environment and heritage issues.

     

    11.30: The organisers announces end of rally and asks the crowd to disperse."

     

    When you compare it to our election Anwar sounds generic, almost trivial… Good news IMO...
    26 Feb 2012, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Here's the last paragraph from a January article in The Economist:

     

    "In prison, some political operators say, he could have served as a useful martyr figure to rally the opposition. Now, they are stuck with him indefinitely as a leader. Mr Anwar may still be popular enough to land a few blows on the government. But he may also be too weakened to deliver the knockout punch."
    26 Feb 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Where are Mugatu and Zoolander when we need them?

     

    Like many others, I invested in Lynas as they were touted as first to produce outside of China, but again, and in retrospect, you have to question the sanity of Lynas investing in a plant in Malaysia, renowned for their about turns and corrupt politics.

     

    Secondly, as China have everything to gain by keeping any new producers wiped off the map, you have to question how much of the protest movement from top down has been bought by the Chinese.

     

    I don't really want to move my money out of Lynas, but I'm now treating it as a poker stock. Shame really.

     

    I hope they have a plan B in case they eventually get so fucked off by Malaysia they have no other option but to pull out.

     

    But to where? Western rules and regulations are a real killer for this type of business, which is ironic, as the West still crave their ipads and green tech, so reliant on rare earths.

     

    Ain't life a bitch?
    26 Feb 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Nick,
    I understand the frustration and I have nothing nice to say about Malaysia, but this lawsuit looks very weak to me. I think if you get out now you would be selling after the tough work (the POL/TOL) is approved based on the last gasps of the opposition. I doubt the courts hold this thing up for long IMO.
    26 Feb 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I'm hanging in there mate. Like I say, it's a poker stock now, and ain't worth selling. The upside however, if all comes through, is worth the gamble..
    26 Feb 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bloom.bg/yamM71

     

    Noteworthy piece from Bloomberg, particularly:

     

    "“Export quotas may be met this year as overseas demand recovers,” Wang Caifeng, a former official overseeing the rare- earth industry with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview in Beijing. “High prices last year had deterred purchases and led to inventories depletion. Smuggling also hampered exports through illegal channels.”

     

    Then there was:

     

    "Australia blocked China’s bid in 2009 to gain control of the world’s richest rare earth deposit amid concern it would threaten supply to non-Chinese buyers. State-owned China Non- Ferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co. in May 2009 offered A$252 million ($271 million) for a 51.6 percent stake in Lynas Corp., which needed cash to resume development of the Mount Weld rare earth mine in Western Australia.

     

    “It was a loss to Australia, not to China,” Wang said, “They should be more open-minded.”

     

    LOL, classic, just classic.

     

    Finally, we have the official cover story for the Cartel:

     

    "Wang is helping form a rare-earth association in China, which is expected to start in the second quarter and will be funded by industry companies, she said. The association will help the government’s planning and drafting rules for the industry, she said."
    26 Feb 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wang had to leave her government job before she could take a job forming the new "private" cartel...

     

    Everyone fooled by this sleight of hand step to the back of the classroom, stand on your head, and clap your hands without bumping your head on the floor...
    26 Feb 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    This really was the "Prince of the Weekend Toss" for sure. Lynas is having a tough day, but I think it would be hard to find a Lynas long that sees things Wang's way and wishes for Chinese control of the company. I do think Wang has a major credibility problem and Bloomberg looks like a bunch of wanker's for giving Wang such a platform.
    I further feel the headline is pretty misleading too. I would have written "China Tries to Support Increased Demand for Rare Earth in 2012". But of course I'm not a shorter buying press so I guess that is the difference.
    27 Feb 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    It certainly looks like Jack Lifton's prediction that GWMGF would be the first from mine to market is still quite viable.
    26 Feb 2012, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Sure.
    If they ever release drill results.
    If the results are great (Highest ever TREO% on the planet is the expectation).
    If GQD comes forward with a plan.
    If Steen is feasible.
    If they work out the Steen metallurgy.
    If a Steen scoping study after drills works.
    If Steen gets an NI 43-101.
    If Steen meets environmental standards
    If Steen complies with SRK plans and studies.
    If South Africa does not get too involved.
    If the IAEA is happy with Steen.
    If Steen cost of production is not too high.
    If GW gets funding.
    If the funding is not too dilutive.
    If the funding is large enough.
    If mine construction progresses.
    If GWGQD plans, builds, and completes a concentrator.
    If GWGQD plans, builds, and completes a separations facility.
    If the Chinese are a good JV partner
    If the oxides are compatible with LCM; and
    If LCM (with a book value less than the goodwill valuation on the GW books http://bit.ly/sMYi0f ) is up to the task...
    Ya, I'd say they are just about there.:-)
    26 Feb 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More environ/luddite nonsense from the opposition party in Malaysia... Tons of news in prime time Sydney... Lynas stock will probably drop like a rock, I expect it to reach my $1.20 short term buy target, perhaps Monday.

     

    I am not adding more at these levels, but waiting for the nonsense to drive share price further into the dust...

     

    Before I upgraded the target to $1.20 in the wake of the TOL award, I had a $1.03 target...

     

    OK, I will PROBABLY disown the $1.20 target if the news from Malaysia dumps Lynas in Australia (the leftie media in Australia eats this manure with a spoon)...

     

    I WILL be adding more to my hoard should it reach $1 range again.
    26 Feb 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas bottomed out at A1.21 as the low last night, closed at A1.23 on weak volume. I believe this erosion will continue until either the Malay courts act, or Lynas finish construction and activate the TOL.
    27 Feb 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/xq1pEy

     

    Different Malaysian paper or are the all the same. Either way...
    27 Feb 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/yqbSBs

     

    more Lynas coverage over at Rare Metal

     

    http://bit.ly/AdKCo3
    The Guardian coverage
    27 Feb 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/xp5V4T
    cnbc: will MCP see a revenue explosion in 2012
    27 Feb 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4603) | Send Message
     
    I think MCP is successful because of "tripleblack" take on China and it's goals, I think the Military is aware of this too and wants an american supplier just in case. I am going to play it thru the MCPpA.
    27 Feb 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    you know, when I was having my breakfast, Rare Metal Blog had a top post updating the Lynas story. I went back to Rare Metal Blog and now the post is gone. And the link above does not work and takes you to a blank page.

     

    I know Lynas is a sponser of that blog, but that is just plain wrong. Lost alot of respect right there.

     

    The post was entitled "Lynas Trouble at Mill"... some commentary then also included the Guardian article as a link"
    27 Feb 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Ar3K1H

     

    Lynas: Trouble At Mill.

     

    Malaysia's last rare earth refinery, operated by Mitsubishi of Japan, in northern Perak state, was closed in 1992 after protests and claims that it caused birth defects and leukaemia among residents. It is one of Asia's largest radioactive waste clean-up sites.

     

    There was trouble at the mill at Lynas Malaysia over the weekend, with Malaysia’s leading opposition party promising to close down Lynas’s separation plant if they win the next general election, widely anticipated to be later this year. Lynas meanwhile still intends to commence operations starting in June. By now it’s probably too late for a Lynas charm campaign to win over the locals, and the leading opposition party lead by Anwar Ibrahim are unlikely to do a u-turn prior to the next general elction.

     

    On a better news front, at least as reported by the UK’s green promoting Guardian newspaper, only 3,000 Malaysians attended the protest rally. “It was the largest rally so far,” wrote the paper, picking up the story from the Associated Press. From London it’s hard to judge the strength of the local opposition, nor the likelihood of the leading opposition party winning the coming election, but they did poll 46.75% last time out compared to the government’s 50%. It would however make me a very nervous investor in Lynas, which is also facing two court challenges to their temporary licence to operate the separation plant. While Lynas would sue for damages, that doesn’t get the rest of the world the non-Chinese source of heavy REEs the world badly needs.

     

    Malaysians protest against rare earth refinery
    Opponents of plant, which will process radioactive ore from Australia, say it poses health and environmental risks.
    Sunday 26 February 2012 17.27 GMT
    About 3,000 Malaysians have staged a protest against a refinery for rare earth elements being built by the Australian mining company Lynas over fears of radioactive contamination.

     

    It was the largest rally so far against the £146m plant in eastern Malaysia, and could pose a headache for the government with national elections widely expected this year.

     

    Authorities recently granted Lynas a licence to operate the rare earth plant in Pahang state, the first outside China in years, and it has been the subject of heated protests over health and environmental risks posed by potential leaks of radioactive waste.

     

    Lynas says its plant, which will refine radioactive ore from Australia, has state-of-the-art pollution controls and plans to start operations by June.

     

    Protesters, including opposition MPs, pledged on Sunday to put pressure on the government to scrap the project. Many wore green T-shirts with the words "Stop Lynas" and some shouted "Destroy Lynas" during the two-hour rally in the Pahang state capital, Kuantan.

     

    The opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim, said his alliance would seek an emergency motion in parliament to urge the government to cancel the project. He also pledged that the opposition would scrap the plant if it won national polls expected by June.

     

    ---- Malaysian activists and Pahang residents have sought a court order to halt the Lynas plant.

     

    An International Atomic Energy Agency team, which assessed the Lynas project last year, found it lacked a comprehensive long-term waste management programme and a plan to dismantle the plant once it is no longer operating.
    27 Feb 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for digging that up Trip...
    27 Feb 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its not just you packrats who stuff things which might become handy in odd places...
    27 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I will say "Trouble at the Mill" is an irresponsible fear mongering headline. The protest was not even at the mill. And I think the phrase was used to grab attention and suggests a plant mishap. Also about 25% of the expected protestors showed up. And this is the only trouble I saw:
    http://bit.ly/xDBSYm
    UMNO/BN Supporters Confront Stop Lynas protest in Penang and Stop Lynas Responds with Aggression.
    27 Feb 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    How'd you get that, TB? the link (for me) still takes me to a blank screen. Still not back on Rare Metal...
    27 Feb 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    "Trouble at t'mill" is a common idiomatic expression in Northern England, equivalent to something like the US expression "Houston: we have a problem" in terms of a once-literal phrase now representing something more general. Brits and perhaps others in the Commonwealth wouldn't equate the headline with an actual problem at a manufacturing facility, even if an international audience (understandably) might...
    28 Feb 2012, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Gareth,
    Perhaps you are correct. But what bothers me more it the fact it was there and then it was taken down. Why not leave it up? Lynas sponsors that blog. Is that why? Rare Metal blog was unbiased and showing both sides until yesterday. If it was the title, then change that and leave the content. If it was the content, then that is a problem that they took it down in my book...
    28 Feb 2012, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree aqwert.
    I think once you put it up it is better to leave it. I think the whole protest is "much ado" and is a short term trader issue that I ignore as a long term investor. But if they wanted to balance the article with the Prime Ministers comments or talk about Lynas' legal position that's one thing. But pulling it unless there is a misstatement is not the approach I prefer. But considering HC put Pan Dai and his SMSL friends on (a far bigger mistake), I have no choice but to forgive the RMB choice.
    27 Feb 2012, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    4 ministries discuss location for disposal of Lynas waste materials

     

    http://bit.ly/xl7X6x

     

    This article suggests to me that the Malaysian government might be considering some constructive leadership toward Lynas. Let's hope so.
    27 Feb 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I thought they were going to use the waste commerically as opposed to dumping it?
    27 Feb 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    FPA,
    Lynas has three gypsums. Only one is very low radioactivity. That one is 6Bq/g. Apparently to get the application approved Lynas compromised and agree to find a disposal facility. They may still use the Thorium and there is researching going on in this area. But the compromise in the immediate is a Permanent Disposal Facility (PDF).
    http://bit.ly/xfQKRi
    27 Feb 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bloom.bg/xPg9IP

     

    Molycorp saga.... board of directors sued...
    27 Feb 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I have to wonder what is in the discovery documents or exhibits for Gaines. I would have assumed this claim would focus on the big HREE deposit promises made without drill permits a few months prior to Molymet. And I figured the Phoenix budget and potential delay claims would have been tied with the insider sales.
    I can only assume now the discovery in the case sent the lawyers in their current direction. For now, it is wait and see.
    27 Feb 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ALKEF - Alkane trading is halted on ASX pending an announcement.

     

    I have no large investment in Alkane, just a thousand cheap shares in the sock drawer.

     

    I had been considering adding a trading bloc, but volume has just been too low....

     

    We'll see what this is. I believe its about time for them to do an offering and dilute some, but it could be anything. I'll poke around down under and see if I can find out...
    27 Feb 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/AxIBXw

     

    OK, looks like they are finally going to crank up their gold mine at Tomingley NSW. Good choice if that is what they do.
    27 Feb 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    "...just a thousand cheap shares in the sock drawer." ~ Me too, but I grew tired of having them sitting around doing absolutely nothing, so I dumped them last Friday. Figured that money could be better used elsewhere . . . like anywhere where it might gain a couple of points in 8 months. That's why I asked, last week, what you guys thought about them.

     

    Same deal with NOURF. I have 800 of them kicking around. Just dead money. A lot like clutter really. NOURF has gone days at a time without a single share traded. Most days I can't find a buyer at ANY price. They would have gone Friday too, but I couldn't even entice any fellow bottom-feeders at $.54 / shr.
    28 Feb 2012, 02:00 AM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    I didn't see this article linked on the REE insta. Thought this affected REE concerns like Lynas and GW (especially LYC last night) down under when I saw it. Could be wrong....
    Article is regarding China doubling output...but still within previous quota one should note

     

    http://bloom.bg/x682l3

     

    Also weighing: REE seems to not be enjoying any "risk-on" in this green market. It has, for the most part, lacked any conviction in buying. Very little enthusiasm overall. Companies/stocks now being treated like "real" companies...Time to put up or shut up for these concerns
    27 Feb 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Hello Tripleblack;
    - Being a self-investor, I've been closely following the REE sector for some years now. From time to time, and especially when the likes of "Stockhouse" get totally off topic; I'll wander over to the "Concentrator" for some refreshing, civilized, exchange of dialogue & opinion.
    - Yesterday, (02-26-12) I did submit a just reply to Chihawk's somewhat biased post regarding GWMG. My response to Chi was intended to present a more balanced perspective on this little "dark-horse" company; who are IMO quietly assembling the critical components, vital to completing their vertical integration strategy.
    - To the best of my knowledge, my response did not violate any "Concentrator" code-of-conduct protocols; therefore its absence remains conspicuous.
    - I welcome your response.
    - u4eah
    28 Feb 2012, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I did not see your comment and I have no idea where your response might have gone. If you would like to repost something similar, that would be fine.

     

    Blog authors DO have the power to delete offensive posts from their own blog, but I have not done so. The adminstrative staff of SA can also do this, of course, but this is relatively rare. They will take action is a comment is reported (note the small "report abuse" link under every comment).

     

    For the record, welcome to the Concentrator and I hope you stick around.
    28 Feb 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    There is also a bug in SA where posts sometimes disappear. I have had some of my comments disappear. It seems to happen when the system is slow to react.
    28 Feb 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    u4eah,
    I can't imagine TB taking something down (except once but that was completely different circumstances) All opinions are welcome here and most of the time it is civil. Please by all means post some good things rebutting Chi's bias of GW... I have thrown in the towel myself.
    All in all, it a very nice group of people that are very well informed. I hope you stick around as well.
    28 Feb 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    I had several comments on different blogs effected by the glitch that FPA describes yesterday. I doubt I'm the only one. While it's not a regular occurrence I've noticed it increases in frequency when the SA staff is making changes as they apparently were yesterday.
    28 Feb 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Note the subtle changes in page layout. The notepad is now at the top of the page, anchored next to the member's name and short pull down menu...
    28 Feb 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    u4eah,
    I too am fine with hearing good things about GW. I am currently bearish but have no problem with changing my view with bullish information. This time last year I owned GW.

     

    To borrow aqwert's phrase toward Lynas, my "concern" is mainly that first drill reports are taking longer to publish than junior's I have owned in the past. And doing phase 2 drills before publishing phase one results is also concerning. If those results go poorly will anyone thank me for saving them money? I doubt it. More likely they will grab whatever straws wwwater or Poncho throw out there which is fine with me. But giving the other side of the trade is fine with me whether it is Lynas or GW. I just think the discussion should try to use facts where possible on both sides.

     

    The rest of my view on GW is just taking the other side of the pumping out there. I think if LCM is all that is claimed by Hykway it should be valued by more than the "goodwill" on the GW's balance sheet and it should make more money than the compensation in the company. And accepting Steen's historicals as Gospel and saying the drills will prove it is the richest rare earth mine on the planet by 50% over any other drilled mine seems presumptive to me too.

     

    And by the way, Kaiser's view is very similar to my own. He puts his view in a private newsletter and is clearly well researched, while I am just a private investor, but the facts in the argument are very similar. So why is quoting Hykawy so virtuous but agreeing with Kaiser is hostile? I think that interpretation suggests a lot of emotional investing IMO.
    28 Feb 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Yep, I was lost this am, couldn't figure out how to get to my feed.
    28 Feb 2012, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    I don't think this is an improvement as it takes an extra step to get to my feed. Is there some utility in it that I'm missing?
    28 Feb 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Robert: What I've done for a *long* time is bookmarked "My Feed" and put it right on the bookmark bar so it's one-click, just like "Smart Bookmarks", "Most Visited", etc. This in Firefox.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Greetings. An excellent suggestion! Thanks.
    28 Feb 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Mount Kellet deal is finalized: http://bit.ly/zERrhi
    28 Feb 2012, 04:32 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Picked this up from HC. Good news!!!

     

    http://bit.ly/zd3cOU
    28 Feb 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas had a good day in court yesterday. How good is not clear. Early reports suggest a preliminary objection claims (Anti) Lynas has failed to exhaust preliminary remedies and thus would have to take their case to the minister overseeing AELB decisions before the court can hear the matter.

     

    "Senior Federal Counsel Suzana Atan and Noor Hisham Ismail, from the Attorney-General’s Chambers, said the 10 applicants failed to exhaust all internal remedies before going to court."
    http://bit.ly/zsMcmD
    http://bit.ly/xshnmO

     

    But another view is the court cannot review an AELB decision. Essentially this view suggests the court lacks jurisdiction and the opposition can only go to the Minister and must accept the decision at that point.

     

    "the court has adjourned the hearing after objection was filed not by the respondents Lynas, nor the licensing board, but by the Attorney General himself.
    The Attorney-General objected to an application for judicial review over a government's decision to grant Lynas a temporary operating licence.
    The AG said only the atomic energy licensing board can review its own decision, the court cannot intervene."
    http://bit.ly/yOjz23

     

    The opposition seems to be saying the request for judicial relief is appropriate now because AELB acted outside the law. That is an almost circular claim in that most if not all AELB complaints would be subject to judicial review if this were true. This read ignores the 304 Act language and appears to be a "Hail Mary" argument IMO. The 304 Act clearly intends the Minister to review complaints:
    LAWS OF MALAYSIA
    Act 304
    ATOMIC ENERGY LICENSING ACT 1984
    http://bit.ly/xpP55r
    (Page 22)
    APPEALS
    32. (1) Any person who is dissatisfied with any decision of the appropriate authority made under this Act may within thirty days after being notified of such decision give notice of appealin writing to the Minister in the prescribed manner.
    (2) The Minister shall as soon as is practicable cause to be served on the appellant a written notice specifying the date, time and place at which the appeal is to be heard:
    Provided that the date so specified shall in no case be earlier than thirty days from the date of service of such notice.
    (3) The grounds of appeal shall be submitted to the Minister not less than ten days before the date fixed for the hearing of the appeal.
    (4) At the hearing of the appeal the appellant may be present either in person or by counsel and the Minister may call for such evidence as he thinks fit.
    (5) The Minister may, after hearing the appeal, make an order confirming or setting aside the decision of the appropriate authority or make such other order as he thinks fit, and the order of the Minister shall be final and shall not be subject to any appeal or review in any court.
    (6) All parties concerned shall give effect to the decision of the Minister in the matter.

     

    So the court question is whether this act controls all appeals in which case March 20 could be the end of the case. OR; Does the rule of judicial rule apply after the Minister's final decision?

     

    In either case the opposition would have been better off talking to the Minister before running to court IMO. Perhaps the opposition just wasted time and money and will get procedures right after March 20. Either that or their claim is going up in smoke right away. March 20 should make this clearer for all.
    28 Feb 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, as I understand it Malaysia operates under what is essentially English common law rules. The burden of proof for a suit like this has to stand several tests before the court before it progresses (if it does - the court can reject it quite easily, its not like it is in the US where flagrantly specious suits are clogging up the courts constantly).

     

    It would appear that they failed to dot the very first "i" in the process, and have been pushed back to square one. NOT a very propitious start for the luddites...
    28 Feb 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Malaysia follows English common law but like the US, statutory language trumps common law procedure in general. We are a long way from addressing the burden of proof in the suit itself.

     

    March 20 is likely to focus on "standing" or what the opposition must do to even show up in court. Best case for the opposition is they will have to go to the Minister and lose before they are back to square one. And Act 304 by itself says the opposition cannot go to court at all.

     

    So the opposition did worse than fail a technicality. They may be wrong to even file a case. And if a suit is allowed they will at least need to expend considerable time and resources (which they do not have) in order to ever reach the merits of the case.

     

    In the meantime, Lynas is free to finish building LAMP, satisfy the POL conditions (pay the first $10 million), and even start up the LAMP. With Mount Kellett releasing the full funds this seems very possible now.
    28 Feb 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Peter Cashin, CEO of QRM on Bloomberg TV. I haven't had an opportunity to watch yet, so no summary available. Sorry. View at your own risk! ;-)

     

    http://bit.ly/wBvLxL
    28 Feb 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Glad to hear things are looking ok for Lynas (and possibly for GW).

     

    Made my first foray into uranium just now.. A small position on Denison Mines.. Just can't justify $25 a share on Cameco.. Maybe another time.

     

    Oh, and topped up a bit more IBC.
    28 Feb 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DNN is a bellweather in the U group, imo.
    28 Feb 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I've had a long day, and the brain has now given up, so I had to Google the meaning of bellweather..

     

    "A bellwether is any entity in a given arena that serves to create or influence trends or to presage future happenings.

     

    The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep."

     

    However, in this case, let's hope they have some balls!

     

    Are you into any other U plays mate?
    28 Feb 2012, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For a long time I liked the U/REE combos, GDLNF, UURAF, etc, longer term (short term Greenland presents a political problem with a prohibition against U mining, and UCore is playing American politiics with their Alaskan project).

     

    I have small core holdings in both, and trade them as volatility and volume allow, with the idea to accumulate very low cost shares over time.

     

    URRE was a more focused U stock which I traded for a while, but I bolted after the Fukushima disaster (and depated all U stocks except for a few shares which I tossed in the sock drawer for GDLNF and UURAF).

     

    And yep, that was what I was implying about DNN, they are one to watch for some idea of where the U sector will go.
    28 Feb 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I took an interest in Uranium after Fukushima (buy when there's blood on the streets and all that), but went through a period of not buying any stock, so did nothing about it.

     

    With Canada and China signing an agreement to supply uranium, new plants coming online in Asia and around the world over the next five to ten years, and despite all environmental pressure, the fact that nuclear is really one of our best options to power the world (wasn't there a rumour that Germany fired up a few plants to cope with the need for power during the recent cold snap?), there could be a resurgence in the stock price.

     

    Cameco (although the safest bet), is too overpriced for me (I'd rather buy J&J,GE or McDonalds at that price), I liked Denison as the No. 2 supplier, and there are a few others (URRE, UEC, URZ, SXRZF, FSSIF for example) that I'm keeping an eye on, and may take a small holding in.
    28 Feb 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (349) | Send Message
     
    This may be of interest to those of us trading ALK on the ASX.

     

    "Alkane Resources (ASX: ALK) has gone into a voluntary trading halt ahead of the announcement of a capital raising.

     

    The company has given no indication of where funds raised will be allocated, however the company has been moving towards development at the Tomingley Gold Project in New South Wales."

     

    http://bit.ly/AxIBXw
    28 Feb 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    What do you guys think of Gareth's trip report to Tasman Metal?

     

    Other than the low percentage of TREO, and possible metallurgical issues. Is there anything glaring that stands out?

     

    http://bit.ly/y7U4fJ
    28 Feb 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    It is a good report by Gareth and Tasman has great potential. But saying "Other than low TREO percentages and possible metallurgical issues" is the geological equivalent to "Other than that Mr. Lincoln, how was the play?".

     

    I mean TREO and metallurgy are big pieces in the rare earth mining puzzle IMO. I think if Metamac or Alkane show commercial production from Eudialyte or if we get more information from feasibility studies, Tasman would look great. But without such information the stock is rather speculative. Not bad, just speculative IMO.
    28 Feb 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - Thanks TB for the prompt response and carification re "Vanishing Post"; and I now see that others have on occasion, experienced similar incidents. I also meant no offence to you personally; so I hope none was taken.
    - As to my recreating my initial response to "Chi's 02-26-12 GWMG comments" ; I'll pass for now thanks; as Chi will undoubtably provide ample opportunity in the future.
    - I would however, like to emphasize some often overlooked attributes regarding GWMG. While by no means perfect, GWMG do continue to execute their plan on all fronts simultaneously; without hype; without fanfare; and most importantly without stumbling. They are quietly, and methodically; assembling formidable talent; forming the necessary strategic alliances with host S./African mining officials/ governments; acquiring crucial Chinese REE seperation expertise; and end-user Japanese/European/and North American clients; .... all vital components to achieving a totally integrated Ree supply chain.
    - I believe that the market has to date, not fully grasped the significance of these achievements; nor acknowledged how in fact this has substantially de-risked their projects going forward !

     

    - u4eah
    - ps; Thanks T.B. , Aqwert, Chi, and other members, for the warm welcome. I will endeavor to publish if, and when, I have something of value to contribute.
    28 Feb 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Understood, and there was never any problem with me. I HATE it when my comments disappear (I just lost over a thousand of them when a senior SA member had problems, so if you want to keep track of something you write with certainty, keep a backup elsewhere).

     

    Great Western is a frequent topic here, of course, an has both supporters and critics numbered among the participants (I am long GWM, and have been since it was much cheaper, but depending on events I can be either supportive or critical - or both simultaneously when I feel more energetic).
    28 Feb 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the ASX last night, Lynas was dead flat with pitiful volume... Alkane was halted, of course...
    29 Feb 2012, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    this interview/report is making the rounds on various blogs, etc Lots of companies mentioned.
    29 Feb 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Quite a few factual misstatements in the article. Very misleading.
    If allegations are creditable against Lynas, why can't someone put their name to them and why have no details since July 2011 developed when Lynas denied the claim?

     

    Can't say who is ahead between Moly and Lynas but we do know Lynas has conditional approval of the TOL/POL.

     

    Last rise in production costs for Lynas was a year ago. All production costs are up from economics ten years ago, but Lynas has very strong margin forecasts. Moly raised costs forecasts with the last conference call but these guys ignored that.

     

    Lynas WA royalties and taxes may go up to $18 million for the year. That is still less dollars and a smaller percent than Moly. I think calling Australia a geopolitical risk is a poor word choice.

     

    Bottom line these guys, like all TCMR "interviews", have an agenda. Some are more factual than others but I personally don't like the infomercial style of TCMR in general. Still, readers can work it out.

     

    Thanks for sharing aqwert.
    29 Feb 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Chi: Greetings. I agree that OZ is no more of a geopolitical risk than the good O'l USofA. Socialists in both places will raise taxes on miners if given the opportunity. They will issue new expensive regulations as well.
    29 Feb 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Robert,
    The funny thing is in the US, Obama will tax the mines but support the green energy they will supply. I guess it just shows what a non-policy our US energy policy really is at this point.
    29 Feb 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Chi: Greetings. It's ironic alright. Lets build ginormous wind farms. However they can't contain anything that was mined from the dirt or chemically manufactured in a lab. Or kill birds. Or have a negative impact of any kind on any wild life or the environment in general. Now you entrepreneurs get cracking on making this a profitable venture we need to tax the results.
    29 Feb 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    That's funny.. I've just posted it as my thought for the day on Fakebook. :)
    1 Mar 2012, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/y8TbZQ

     

    Lynas/malaysian govt 2..... protesters .... 0

     

    what inning are they in now?
    29 Feb 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Looks about the bottom of the 6th. Ludites are coming to bat.
    29 Feb 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'd say March 20 is the final "at bat" in court. After that the court option should be gone and the Minister won't be a sympathetic ear so they will down to opposition politics at that point.

     

    LAWS OF MALAYSIA
    Act 304
    ATOMIC ENERGY LICENSING ACT 1984
    http://bit.ly/xpP55r
    (Page 22)
    APPEALS
    (5) The Minister may, after hearing the appeal, make an order confirming or setting aside the decision of the appropriate authority or make such other order as he thinks fit, and the order of the Minister shall be final and shall not be subject to any appeal or review in any court.
    29 Feb 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Chi: Greetings. That's the way it looks to me. Then Lynas will get to bat in the top of the 7th. Completing the LAMP and initiating production. After the 7th inning stretch we should see some effort by the ludites and their CHICOM backers down in the dugout to make some sort of comeback. I'm predicting Lynas wins 3-0.
    29 Feb 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/xdOapn

     

    February 29, 2012 (Source: Bloomberg) -- Western Australia will impose a 2.5 percent royalty on rare earth production as part of changes to the state’s mining regulations.

     

    The royalty was included in its Feb. 24 amendment to the 1978 mining act, according to a statement on the West Australian government website.

     

    Lynas Corp., which produces rare earths from its Mount Weld mine in the state, may be liable for about A$17 million ($18 million) a year in royalty payments as a result of the regulation, the Australian Financial Review reported today.
    29 Feb 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for sharing aqwert.
    This royalty was established last year before Lynas started the concentrator. Bloomberg is just reporting it now, but it is old news, not a new proposal. The value is 2.5% and may be much less for Lynas since the tax applies to concentrate. In any case this is a small fraction of Moly's royalties and taxes as well as GW's Black Empowerment costs.

     

    Since this was announced last year Lynas has:
    -Produced over 9,000 tonnes of dry bagged Rare Earths concentrate stockpiled on site and reached 37% concentrate grade and 71.7% recovery.(Slide 10)
    - Took LAMP from a point similar to the current Project Phoenix appearance and nearly built the entire LAMP.(Slide 14)
    -Completed full funding through a Mount Kellett convertible bond.(Slide 28)
    -Received the POL/TOL approval from Malaysia's AELB.(Slide 15)
    -Expanded the Mount Weld Resource by 37% and drilled and established Duncan as one of the most developed HREE deposits with one of the shortest timelines and lowest cap ex costs in the world. (Slide 11-12)
    -Entered into binding offtake agreements in each market segment and each type of product.(Slide 23) Currently nine customer agreements. No Ce reserved and unsold and contracts have established terms (though several names withheld).
    -Completed a strategic Alliance with Sojitz providing the best funding terms in the rare earth industry.(Slide 24)
    -Signed a letter of Intent with Siemens to establish a JV company for the sustainable production of neodymium-based Rare Earths magnets. (Slide 25)
    http://bit.ly/AmW6Lh

     

    Too bad Bloomberg ignores all of that.
    29 Feb 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep, pretty much non-news. Taxes are everywhere. It would appear that, though this sort of thing was being discussed back when, this latest update to the state regulations makes it "official".
    29 Feb 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Some LYC news (or rumour, really)...A friend of a friend works for one of the companies contracted to work on the LAMP. His original contract was due to expire in Sept, then that was extended to January and then again to February. He has now finished and is officially off the project. Could suggest LAMP is complete...(or that they are very close). I suppose we all expect that, but it's nice to see some real signs of completion.
    29 Feb 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Freo.
    I think we are all wondering what to expect to some extent. Lynas needs to complete LAMP, ship ore, or accomplish some other clear milestone to bring new investors to the stock IMO. Mount Kellett is great but only if it really is it for funding to cash flow. The POL is great but only if Malaysian politics starts to give way to LAMP progress. We need clear accomplishments that new investors can see and say "Lynas is getting done now"; Not just good news that traders can ride and flip on.
    Honestly, the whole rare earth sector needs this, but my focus is Lynas first.
    29 Feb 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Could be the last time to buy some cheap Lynas shares before LAMP approval/completion and refining starts?

     

    Fookin' hope so.

     

    This is now my worst performing stock, and I want some moolaahhh back on an upturn!
    1 Mar 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • hayato
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I rarely have the occasion to discuss REE with so many people. Anyone here has some opinion on GeoMegA (TSX Venture: GMA). They have great numbers...
    1 Mar 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome, hyato.

     

    I traded GOMRF briefly (made money as I recall) over a year ago, and mentioned it on a much earlier Concentrator. Since that time it has languished, and now it's chart is quite ugly. I would have probably continued trading it on the American pink sheets, but the volume was too low to allow this strategy to progress.

     

    In general terms it is an interesting junior explorer, but the overall grade of their TREO at their prime bloc of claims is below that which I invest in long term at this point (1.45%, I like to see more like 1.75%, preferably with other commercially valuable minerals that lift the whole to over 2%). Geo's recent drill results are promising, and might present the sort of results I prefer as they refine their overall picture and figure out their metallurgical process:

     

    http://yhoo.it/yAFTma

     

    As a Canadian company I expect they will continue drilling and updating their NC's on a regular basis.

     

    I would expect that they might be part of the 2nd or 3rd wave of rare earth sources expected to come on line post 2016 or 2018.
    1 Mar 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/zQQlaN

     

    KUALA LUMPUR, March 1 — The government has said that Lynas Corp must find a solution to ship its hazardous waste back to Australia, failing which no temporary operating licence (TOL) will be issued for its controversial rare earth plant in Gebeng near Kuantan.

     

    I am confused. I thought they were supposed to come up with a plan for the waste in Malaysia not ship it back to Australia. I also read that Australia does not want it back. Is this new or more of the same back and forth?
    1 Mar 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how they can (apparently) flip-flop like that after having heard that suitable disposal plans in Malaysia were being considered.

     

    Did I misunderstand?

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Two factions in the Malay governments with diametrically opposed viewpoints and agendas.

     

    The one with the wacky slant is not in power...

     

    The one making more sense IS in power...

     

    And an election is right around the corner.
    1 Mar 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    AELB had a hearing after this article was out. It suggests this article is misleading and the requirements have not changed. Malaysia seems to want Lynas to lime the waste and sell the end products outside Malaysia.

     

    That solution seems to be gaining popularity. Politicians are even suggesting this could work since it is not "radioactive waste" and would be "residue" at that point. The hypocrisy of the Lynas opposition is: because the waste is internationally non-hazardous it is easy to lime to residues with trace radioactivity, but (for political reasons) those products should be sold elsewhere.
    http://bit.ly/z6XY8y

     

    AELB is requiring a Letter of Undertaking that says Lynas will not keep the waste in Malaysia, but Lynas has 10 months to finalize the disposal plan.
    http://bit.ly/z9hUxt
    1 Mar 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Chi. I thought I had it mostly correctly remembered.

     

    I wish we'd hear the market for Thorium nukes was heating (figuratively) up and that the patent suggestion that ... VB(?) found that I forwarded was useful (or an equivalent).

     

    That would be problem solved, most likely, with an additional revenue stream rather than an expense and disposal problem.

     

    But even without that, sure sounds like the last-gasp attempts of a defeated opponent that's too dumb to throw in the towel.

     

    Maybe they see themselves as a "Rocky VI" of somesuch.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Mar 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    Do you have a date for that link? I didn't see one in the "document" itself.
    1 Mar 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    egg,
    March 1 Malaysia for both.
    1 Mar 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    An update from Sarrissa (SRSR): http://yhoo.it/zpxTGQ Not much in it, but an update is better than no update.
    1 Mar 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/z6XY8y

     

    I am not sure what to believe at this point but there seems to be a "Australia should take it back" approach to today's news. Every article seems to have some slightly different track so who is to say.

     

    “Western Australia said it will not accept radioactive waste from third countries. They never said (they will not accept) Lynas residue...,” he told reporters at AELB headquarters here.

     

    “And therefore, if there are commercial items that can be returned to Australia, it is for the Australian government to decide whether it will accept them.”

     

    Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai said yesterday Lynas must find a way to ship its waste back to Australia, failing which no temporary operating licence TOL) will be issued for its controversial rare earth plant in Gebeng, Kuantan.

     

    plus this: "Raja Abdul Aziz (picture) today also downplayed cracks in a network of pipes at the plant, which was disclosed by PKR last month.

     

    He said the high-density, underground plastic pipes were part of the fire safety system and had nothing to do with the pipes which will be used in the refining process.

     

    AELB has already taken steps to address the problem and would continue to liaise with the Fire Department on the matter to ensure the plant’s fire safety system was functional, he added."

     

    A functioning fire system is always helpful, imo.
    1 Mar 2012, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    My take on all this is the Lynas issue has become so highly mis-handled and now politicized that all deals are off. The best solution is Lynas agree to take the residue back to Aus and process it there, into building products or what have you. From the last cc, NC was very clear that this was not an option being considered at that time. He thought he had more time (like years) with the current plan for on-site storage. That then changed that he had 10 months to sort out a pdf. Now, it would appear he needs to come up with an immediate solution before operating. Even though LYC has AELB and IAEA on its side, the issue seems to have become more political and that makes technical solutions less important and puts a greater importance on indulging emotional concerns. If you have an hour to waste on getting some insight, have a look at this...http://bit.ly/waBseQ
    1 Mar 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Here's a question... did Lynas start this process without a clear plan on what to do with the waste? Or did they have a original plan and that was shot down? Then there was the the 10mo. to get a plan... now is there a "take it back to australia" plan? this is getting very confusing....
    1 Mar 2012, 08:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Freo, WOW! That's brain strain just trying to follow what's being said. Have they created their own english dialect over there?

     

    Who is the dude speaking and/or what board,ministry, whatever it is that these people are representing?
    1 Mar 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think Lynas has changed the plan and adjusted over time. Either that or they are the first junior ever to spend hundreds of millions of dollars over a decade without a change.

     

    Clearly there has been a negotiation between Lynas and Malaysia and AELB for nearly a year. And there has been a relationship going back to 2008 or so.

     

    I think the key is these things suggest Lynas is getting near completion and production based on the political actions and protests often come at the final stages. AELB has given Lynas a clear path to production. Lynas just needs to execute to conditions. That is not easy, but they have come a long way.
    1 Mar 2012, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    My Take is Lynas designed the plant and process knowing they would need to store some (multiple years' worth of) residue with the idea that , before the thing was full, they would have a proper solution (recycling into gypsum and concrete mainly). I also think the hold up in the TOL was related to this issue with Lynas saying they have a probable solution and AELB wanting a more conventional, definite solution in case plan A does not work. The 10 month allowance was a compromise and now even that seems to have been toughened due to the political pressure. We now have a mexican stand-off. Lynas has proven at a small scale that they can dilute the residue to a sub-radioactive level (by international standards) but they cannot prove this at an operational scale until they have that quantity of material. The AELB on the other hand want a conventional storage solution instead as a definitive plan and the temporary (multi-years' worth of storage capacity on-site) is not good enough. Bear in mind, I am piecing all this together based on NO INFORMATION from the company.
    1 Mar 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    The main guy is the AELB director. Yes, it is confusing. The second half of the clip is worth watching imo as it gives insight into the circus we are dealing with. The second guy who speaks is the head of a citizen's advisory panel that was assembled to represent the public and to summarize the submissions made by the public during the screening period at the beginning of the year.
    1 Mar 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Can anyone say why NTU has been in a trading halt? Sorry if I missed that earlier.
    1 Mar 2012, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Capital raising jimp.
    REQUEST FOR TRADING HALT
    The Directors of Northern Minerals Ltd (ASX code: NTU) request a trading halt of the Company's
    Securities from the commencement of trade on 1 March 2012.
    The Company requests the trading halt pending the release of an announcement in relation to a
    capital raising. An announcement is expected to be made on or before the opening of trade on
    Monday 5 March 2012.
    1 Mar 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Chi
    1 Mar 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    GWMG UPDATE
    - I know everyone here at the moment is fixated with the LYC story right now; however, for any GWMG heads out there, a fairly recent update :
    - Of note;
    - Mixed chloride production plant upgraded to produce 12,000 tons mixed chloride.
    - LCM; 400 % capacity expansion to meet ever increasing customer demand.
    - Dec 2012 completion mixed chloride prod plant; and early 2013 completion seperation plant.
    - I'm not sure yet where the monies will be coming from, however they seem pretty confident about having adequate materials to process!
    http://bit.ly/zKg6yD
    1 Mar 2012, 09:47 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    My guess is the monies will come from shares (another issuance).
    They have 508 million fully diluted and they are down to $5.3 million Cash on Hand.

     

    As to confidence I think they can keep LCM busy.
    But this is the first GW presentation to put a footnote next to the Steen historical numbers (Slide 3) ((1) Based on historical non-NI 43-101-compliant data. See Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements.)
    AND
    Slide 11- One of the highest grade RE deposits 16.74% REO
    (based on historical non-NI 43-101-compliant data supplied by Rareco and reviewed by GWMG management).
    1 Mar 2012, 10:26 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Which sounds to me like "We're going to continue to reference historical data because our new drill results suck and the historical data has a better ring to it".
    1 Mar 2012, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Never Right Dwight says the lab(s) are very backed up. Anyone else have Canadian miners drilling saying the same? Are other miners drilling a phase 2 without phase 1 results yet? Is everyone running into veins that "pinch and swell"?
    1 Mar 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Even given NRD as the source, I can find that somewhat probable, or even likely. Given all that's going on the mining space these days; with all of the REE juniors trying to get their ball rolling and gold going through the roof, I'm sure there is an unprecedented amount of drilling going on.
    1 Mar 2012, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, its doubtful there are very many juniors shipping their core samples to South Africa for lab work...

     

    This is the plan GWM published:

     

    November 29, 2011 - Saskatoon, Canada: Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company") is pleased to provide a progress report on the Company's drill program at its Steenkampskraal rare earth mine site in South Africa.

     

    26 coreholes totaling 2,307 meters have been completed, including 19 holes dedicated to metallurgical mini-bulk sampling and 7 for geological resource delineation.

     

    Jim Engdahl, President and Chief Executive Officer of GWMG stated, "Our drilling and sampling program will continue to mid-December, 2011. This moves us toward completion of two goals at Steenkampskraal — first, to provide information in support of a fully compliant National Instrument 43-101 resource estimate report and second, to expand the resources at Steenkampskraal through testing the down-dip extension of the main structure as well as investigation of the encasing host rock mineralization."

     

    For metallurgical testing, clusters of drillholes with a variety of bearings and inclinations were situated around a central resource definition corehole on selected locations to collect representative samples of monazite mineralization. Intersections of mineralization in metallurgical holes ranged from a few centimeters to 3.55 meters along core length. These holes will be logged in detail, measured for bulk density, and sampled for assay. In addition, a representative selection of the resource definition core has been identified and sampled for ongoing mineralogical and textural studies. Resource definition holes encountered a comparable range of true vein thicknesses,

     

    The second major objective of the drill program is the step-out designed to test the on-strike and down-dip extension of rare earth mineralization of the Steenkampskraal deposit. Thus far, approximately 185 kilograms, out of a proposed 600 kilograms, of underground monazite sample has been collected by underground channel sampling. Upon completion, this material will be submitted for characterization studies.

     

    Mintek of Johannesburg, South Africa has been selected to conduct the metallurgical characterization necessary for development of design criteria for ore beneficiation and rare earth extraction at Steenkampskraal. Approximately 630 kilograms of mini-bulk metallurgical sample from the surface tailings dam and 730 kilograms from the rock dump were submitted to Mintek earlier this month.

     

    As well, a total of 276 samples were collected by shallow tube sampling on a 10 meter grid pattern covering the historic tailings dam onsite. Assay samples from the resource definition coreholes will continue to be collected through to mid-December. All assay results will be reported as they are received from the laboratory with the priority use of the data being for incorporation into the metallurgical characterization of the potential ore, as well as resource modeling report, which is contracted to SRK Consulting South Africa.

     

    John Pearson, MSc, P.Geo, Vice-President Exploration for GWMG, is the Qualified Person responsible for reviewing the contents of this news release.
    2 Mar 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17247) | Send Message
     
    Well, as if Lynas didn't have enough on it's plate, the USD decides to take a big jump today, moving from a close of $$78.84 yesterday to open at $79.18 this A.M. This is large for currency moves.

     

    If usual behavior follows, most of the gap should be filled, but if not, LYSCF/LYSDY should open down.

     

    The AUD is holding well ATM though, down only about 1/3 of a penny.

     

    I'll say one thing about this mining space, it sure is interesting. Entertainment value alone might justify share price. But the more I see, the more it sounds like trading rather than investing is the best course of action early on.

     

    Easy for me to say: still completely out ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    2 Mar 2012, 04:53 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    HTL-

     

    If you think this is entertaining, you are one sick fella. :-)

     

    I find this so hard. At these prices, and at so close to production, it's hard to sit back on LYC/LYCF. On the other hand, it has defied logic so much to this point that I just can't see taking any more risk. I am very anxious for some positive or at least reassuring news at this stage.
    2 Mar 2012, 05:34 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think most of us feel that way Freo, if it makes you feel any better. You could become a "contrarian investor". They that that's where fortunes are made ya know! For my part, I think I'll just stick to what I've got going for the time being. "Patience!" ...they say. :-)
    2 Mar 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The new Concentrator is ready:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    4444444444444444444444...

     

    4444444444444444444444...
    2 Mar 2012, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Freo,
    It will sort out in Lynas' favor. The trouble is people have been too conservative on several fronts of the Lynas story IMO. If you take analyst's basket projections no one would make a LREE. Those numbers would not make it feasible in nearly every case. Well, Moly is not only making money off LREE's only, but they now want to do it shipping in LNG. Moly is smart to do that and it shows the analysts are too conservative.

     

    Furthermore, for some time Lynas will be the largest producer (outside China) of HREE's through it's tolling. Those are small tonnages but the prices are strong and stable. When Lynas produces saying the Mount Weld CLD does not have enough HREE's will be like telling a gold miner he lacks enough copper. The point will be that a little HREE's will go a long way and Duncan waits down the road.

     

    The last concern analysts are concerned about Lynas is the run rate. Lynas is at a full run rate and producing nothing. The Malaysian government and LAMP construction have been slow (perhaps in a standoff). Analysts realize, even with Mount Kellett that such a run rate requires near term action or funding could be an issue again.

     

    Here, I think the key is the clear path to production by the AELB TOL conditions and one has to show some confidence that Curtis can get this finished. Lynas construction has been scrutinized to an extreme in the press because it suited political objectives. But if you look at it the quality is obvious. I'm sure if we sent "white glove enviromarms" out to Steen or Mountain Pass they could be petty too.

     

    All the same, some relics in my country bow to the NYT. I find that impossible when I evaluate Kieth Bradsher's shameful work. But in politics numbers always trumps wisdom and logic. Honestly, the NYT exits based on this fact. Otherwise, we would call the paper Pravda with a good investigation once a year and the rest would be political prizes.

     

    So the result of all of this is uncertanty about start-up and a fear about margins and costs. That is the Fortescue story in a nutshell. There were major returns left there even on the eve of production. Lynas seems more exstreme, but the commodity is less understood. Lynas is doing well and closing like they should. I remain confident.
    2 Mar 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
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