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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 2, 2012 224 comments
    Mar 2, 2012 9:34 AM
    I will be out of pocket for the next week to 10 days, traveling on the road. Pensacola Renaissance Faire this weekend, followed by the Orange Beach Fine Art Festival next weekend. I will try to pop back in upon occasion.

    This is a link to an update from GWM with their current timeline laid out in slide 23.

    http://www.gwmg.ca/images/file/presentations_updates/GWMGpptFEB232012.pdf

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  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Be good or have fun - pick one! ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    2 Mar 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    A few more details on the GWGQD JV. It finalized so here are some further details....
    GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP LTD. ("GWG")
    BULLETIN TYPE: Property-Asset or Share Purchase Agreement
    BULLETIN DATE: March 1, 2012
    TSX Venture Tier 2 Company

     

    TSX Venture Exchange has accepted for filing documentation pursuant to a Joint Venture, Subscription, Shareholders', and Operator's Agreement dated January 10, 2012 (the "Agreement") between the Company and Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group Co. Ltd ("GQD"). As per the terms of the Agreement, the Company acquired 75% of the shares of a newly created joint venture company, Great Western GQD Rare Earth Materials Proprietary Limited ("GWGQD"), and shall supply all funding for the construction of the facilities and operations required under the joint venture. GQD will provide long term management support for the operation of the separation facility over ten years. In consideration, GQD will receive 25% of the shares of the joint venture, 15,664,959 common shares of the Company to be paid over a period of three years at a price to be determined at the date of issuance based on the Market Price and US$12,896,864 in cash. Please see the Company's January 10, 2012 press release for additional details.
    http://bit.ly/x8lpQm
    Great Western finalises rare-earths deal with Chinese company
    Great Western Minerals said on Tuesday it penned a joint venture pact with Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group, a Chinese firm, to build a separations plant to process material from the TSX-V-listed company’s Steenkampskraal operation in South Africa
    http://bit.ly/yisEVS
    2 Mar 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Thus cementing further Western steps to end the Chinese monopoly on the worldwide supply of rare earths...

     

    Aside from the money and keeping one's enemy close, what's in it for the Chinese? Er, oh, that'll be it then.

     

    Oh well. Good luck GWM. Let's hope at least one of my REE stocks picks up.
    2 Mar 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Have fun. Take some sun screen or you'll come back a Florida redneck. ;-)
    2 Mar 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Welcome back. After hearing about your trip it looks like I'm as good a predictor of weather as I am in stocks. :-)
    6 Mar 2012, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas continues to enjoy backing from Siemens The embattled Australian rare earth company, Lynas Corp, which is building a controversial processing plant in Malaysia, still has the support of one of its key off-take partners, engineering group Siemens. A Siemens spokesperson told Metal Pages that they are confident that Lynas Corp is meeting the required safety standards. “In the case of a JV, we check compliance to these standards and embed these requirements in the contracts,” the spokesperson said. Siemens said it was drawn to work with Lynas Corp because the two have a vision of establishing a ‘green’ supply chain for making high-performance NdFeB magnets used in a range of ‘green’ technologies such as wind turbines. The spokesperson added that the venture “explicitly” includes a rare earth separation process that complies with international environmental standards. Siemens and Lynas Corp announced in July 2011 a 55-45% joint venture to produce neodymium based rare earth magnets for applications such as wind turbines. Nonetheless, there are apparently no financial penalties to be paid by Lynas Corp if the plant is again delayed – say as a result of the local protests. It’s due to start production around the middle of this year. Lynas did not respond to questions from Metal Pages over whether there will be any delays to production or not. The Malaysian protesters are currently pursuing a court case in their country to get the plant shut down. One of the contentions is what will happen to the radioactive waste – apparently it can’t be sent back to Australia. In an effort to placate the local community the government is looking to have the waste moved to another “far away” location and will make further announcements in due course. The view of many in the European rare earths trade is that Lynas will very likely experience delays in coming into operation – but will not lose its rare earth processing licence. The feeling is that the Malaysian establishment is fully behind the operation, wants to see it succeed as it dovetails with the country’s industrial policies and will do what it takes to make sure it comes on stream. However, there is also acknowledgement that the protests do add a layer of risk, the outcomes of court cases and elections can be unpredictable and this is hardly an ideal backdrop for what is expected to be one of the largest non-Chinese rare earth producers. The share price of Lynas Corp on the Australian Stock Exchange has fallen from just under A$1.30 to just under AS$1.15 this week and no doubt reflects those concerns. Source: http://bit.ly/x8Q9xy
    2 Mar 2012, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Siemens must be also helping Lynas out somehow with the waste processing in Malaysia prior to shipping it elsewhere. A quick check for "waste treatment" in Siemens Malaysia website's search box leads me to believe that must be the case.
    http://bit.ly/AnG7zk
    3 Mar 2012, 12:50 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    IINM, Siemens has a plant right in the same industrial park as the LAMP. I have no idea if they're working with Lynas on the LAMP or not. Just a lil' FWIW....
    5 Mar 2012, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    I have not seen this report in any Australian source -- so I am skeptical of its contents until I see someone other than Free Malaysia reporting this. But, their latest claim is that now an Australian group is adding to the Lynas controversy. Purportedly the Anti-Nuclear Alliance of Western Australia (ANAWA) is saying that Lynas has made a number of changes to its procedures which have not gone through the appropriate approvals. "Lynas are currently operating under approvals issued to them 14 years ago ... There are major concerns about the amounts of radioactive materials being transported from Mt Weld through Fremantle Port.” http://bit.ly/zMwPsA If this challenge is factual, I hope the group is going to start looking at all of the iron ore transported around Australia carrying much more radioactivity than the Lynas load!
    5 Mar 2012, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    You're right on that account Mercy! All of these protester groups pick out bits of info that they want to exploit tot their advantage, then chose to ignore other related info from the big picture that is generally equally, if not more, relevant and important. Not unlike most of our politicians and special; interest groups I suppose...

     

    As you say, where Mt. Weld exports are concerned, perhaps Lynas hasn't updated their export permits appropriately. "Thanks for pointing that out. We'll get right on it!" Who cares..? Are the authorities really going to tell them "no"? Australia stands to benefit from all of the positive aspects of Lynas operations, with nearly NONE of the downside.
    5 Mar 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you about questioning the trustworthiness of the source, Free Malaysia Today [FMT]. The "journalist" Stephanie Sta Maria, the author of the "article" writes for that organization. She states:

     

    "Australia’s Environmental Defenders Office [EDO] today announced through a media statement that it will be lodging a referral tomorrow on behalf of the Anti-Nuclear Alliance of Western Australia [ANAWA] to the Environmental Protection Authority [EPA] on Lynas’ operations at Mount Weld." Ever notice how Acronyms or initialisms seem to be more impressive than the actual name? The EDO sounds official while the Environmental Defenders Office sounds like something else.

     

    The [EDO] or "Environmental Defenders Office" has been lobbying for years for the inclusion of global warming as a matter of national environmental significance in Australia's main environmental protection legislation, the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. This campaign was related to a range of court cases with which [EDO] was involved, mostly unsuccessfully, seeking recognition of greenhouse gas emissions as a matter that should be considered in environmental impact assessment procedures. I would say that means the [EDO] has a specific agenda.

     

    There is a very basic journalistic rule of getting both sides of the story before publishing a piece. The story appears to be based on the premise of a leading question - a false presupposition. For example, "Did you stop beating your wife today?". In this circumstance, the presupposition concerns the safety of people being exposed to large quantities of low levels of radiation. The reasoning being that exposure to "Large" quantities of low levels of radiation somehow makes it unsafe. Indeed, what about those large quantities of radioactive iron ore?

     

    Of course, the fact that every person on Earth is exposed to large quantities of low levels of radiation on a daily basis is never mentioned as bringing that fact up immediately demonstrates issues with the underlying premise. No attempt to interview Lynas or an official of the Environmental Protection Authority [EPA]? Has the radiation level of the ore suddenly changed to dangerous levels? Is no one mentoring the radiation levels in the ports? I characterize the story as a PR piece pushing an agenda of the [EDO].
    5 Mar 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    If worse comes to worse, perhaps Lynas could use the industrial port at Port Hedland. Port Hedland is closer to Malaysia than Fremantle is and not anywhere near the environmentally concerned city dwellers.
    http://www.phpa.com.au
    5 Mar 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Approvals and Regulations

     

    The approvals for the transport of Mount Weld Rare Earths concentrate were granted by theEPA in June 2009. The company is confident that our processes and procedures will meet all required regulations and are completely safe.

     

    The Mount Weld Rare Earths concentrate is:
    Not classified as Dangerous Goods by the criteria of the Australian Dangerous Goods Code (ADG Code) for transport by road or rail.
    Not classified as a Dangerous Goods for transport by sea (International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code 2006).

     

    The Mount Weld Rare Earths concentrate is not considered a radioactive material, the levels of the naturally occurring thorium are so low in the concentrate that the material is:
    Not regulated for transport as classified by the criteria of the Australian Code of Practice for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material 2001.
    Not regulated for transport as classified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Safe Transport of Radioactive Material regulations.

     

    Lynas received approvals to process the Rare Earths concentrate in Australia, China and in both Terengganu and Pahang, Malaysia:
    Lynas initially obtained all approvals for this project in Australia. However, there was no suitable, available location with the required infrastructure: access to high-grade industrial chemicals, gas, electricity and a plentiful supply of water for the plant.
    Lynas had also obtained approvals for this plant in China. However, the Chinese government imposed export limits on all final products as well as imposing export taxes. Lynas was unwilling to invest in China and then have the export of final products controlled by the Chinese government.
    Ultimately Lynas identified Malaysia as the preferred location for this plant. Lynas completed an Environmental Impact assessment and Qualitative Risk Assessment for the Gebeng Industrial Area location before obtained all approvals required by the authorities for this location.
    http://slidesha.re/x8A3Gd

     

    http://bit.ly/wtJTwg
    5 Mar 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    VB,
    Lynas was previously approved to transport from Esperance and changed their route to Fremantle. The fact is the Australian hazardous level of 10 Bq/g is well above the radioactivity of the concentrate and Lynas waste. And to Malaysian PM Najib's point, Lynas residue is less that most iron ore transported so if they went through Port Hedland they would be one of the least radioactive substances in that port. Port Hedland is known for Pilbara Iron Ore export.
    5 Mar 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    It seems to me that the opposition must be aware of the Esperance episode where radiation was a highlighted concern. They must be using it as background knowledge to apply to the Fremantle situation.
    http://bit.ly/zUCo6p
    Esperance has an industrial port devoted to shipping ores and grain. A short distance away is the harbor meant for pleasure craft and tourism.
    The Fremantle Harbor has a similar set up with their industrial port located near some harbors set aside for pleasure craft and cruise ships.
    The Kwinana industrial harbors are being developed several miles to the south of Fremantle. Perhaps they may provide a solution someday.
    6 Mar 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWG - GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP’S LCM RECEIVES
    RARE EARTH METAL MAKING ENVIRONMENTAL PERMIT

     

    http://bit.ly/xN2cTF

     

    Best,
    Matt
    5 Mar 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5079) | Send Message
     
    9:27 AM Molycorp (MCP) +6.5% premarket after Morgan Stanley says a recovery may be in store for rare-earth prices after a YTD 25% drop. Yttrium prices rose in February, which could be followed by a rebound in magnetic rare earths, MS says, adding that a seasonal pickup in demand also will help stabilize prices. The firm reaffirmed its Overweight rating and $81 target price
    5 Mar 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5079) | Send Message
     
    Zambia shuts polluting Glencore copper plant
    http://bit.ly/zZCWu2
    5 Mar 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Any news on NTU recently?
    5 Mar 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    They just announced AU$10 million worth of dilution for further HREE exploration & development.
    5 Mar 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Thanks
    5 Mar 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • RainH2O
    , contributor
    Comments (1354) | Send Message
     
    TB:
    [SNDXF] has moved against price of gold recently....opinion on this?
    I sold some shares at 1.79 and now second guessing
    5 Mar 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am holding all my Sandstorm right now, but then I made more than a double on my initial sale of warrants since buying last year. I have been trading SNDXF for over a year, accumulating low cost shares, but now I am sitting on my shares and observing the situation. I sold my last bloc of trading shares at $1.64 (purchased between $1 and 1.10), now back to my central core position.

     

    I have a current buy price of $1.47, but we will see how things work out over the next 6 weeks (which I believe will be illustrative).
    5 Mar 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    A general non-stock specific thought:
    One of the fun things about mining stocks is explorer "baby steps" tend to get good share price gains and near producers tend to see minimal share price gains till major final milestones are achieved. Of course the explorer will still face most of what producers have overcome in the future. But that issue never feels like the market cares till the end.
    5 Mar 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Black Ridge Mining (BRD.AX) to launch itself into rare earths with interest in Mongolian project.
    Proactive Investors: http://bit.ly/w4eBhi
    Press Release: http://bit.ly/y48Gyx

     

    Can any of the Aussie experts confirm Black Ridge is legit?

     

    Thank you.
    5 Mar 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    This company trades for less than a penny in Australia.

     

    While there are definitely Rare Earth Elements in Mongolia (ones that Germany in particular seems anxious to get a hold of), I have yet to see a publicly traded company involved in rare earths in Mongolia, and think the infrastructure for rare earths in Mongolia is 5 to 10 years away at best.

     

    I'm asking the group about this one since the last time a publicly traded company claimed to be involved in Rare Earths in Mongolia, it was GTSO, a fraudulent company that went from being a Green Technology company to a Mongolia Rare Earth play to an African Precious Metal play.

     

    I'd love to see a legit play. Here's the company's site http://bit.ly/xzdZxQ
    6 Mar 2012, 07:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » In general terms I avoid equity investments looking 10 years + into the future. 5 years is about my limit, and even then I always feel a twinge as the baseline hovers just over that horizon...

     

    This is one to watch, but I think its premature right now. If we have a solid rare earth player emerge in Mongolia, I would expect that it might be a side-effect of a major miner (similar to the situation in China where it is a sideline for a major iron ore miner).
    6 Mar 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - Couple of questions on my mind tonite concerning the latest turns and twists in the LYC road; so here's to hoping the "Board" will indulge me!
    - How is it that LYC has managed to become this lightening rod, for what seems to be every special interest group with an axe to grind; both abroad, and now apparently domestically also? ..... I'll admit, I don't know the whole corporate history of LYC; however from my vantage point, it does appear that someone; or something; or some mysterious dark force, is bent on preventing LYC from succeeding !

     

    - Also, were it not for the radio-active component involved in the mining and processing of rare-earths; would these special interests groups have the needed ammunition required to launch their attacks at LYC? .....In other words; if there were no radiation risk involved; would we still be witnessing this "anti-Lynas" mania? ....... because if
    the answer is "no", then please enlighten me as to why Lynas chose not to remove the radiation in Australia at Mount Weld; as part of their chloride processing / benefication stage ! .......because this is precisely what GWMG are doing at S/Africa Steens mine; and returning the radio-active thorium back into the mine, underground, safely entombed in concrete. No radio-active transportation hassles; .... no radio-active waste sites;...... and no radio-active protests.
    - Perhaps there is some logical explanation for the path Lynas has chosen; ....I'm just not aware of it .

     

    u4eah
    ps. If this was already debated in a much earlier "Concentrator"; my apologies !
    5 Mar 2012, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » u4: I have written extensively in past Concentrators about the geopolitical risks in this sector, and specifically about Lynas (particularly when it appeared so near to first producer status). When (and I do believe it WILL ultimately succeed) it finally bursts through the geopolitical minefield, we will see a shift in strategy by the primary geopolitical players (particularly China, of course). At that time (or soon after, since it looks to be occurring in concert with the occasional changing of the Communist Party guard in Beijing) China could perform a fairly dramatic third change of direction in its geopolitical rare earth plan. Thus far the plan has worked flawlessly, featuring the initial drive to seize a monopoly position in rare earth mineral production (which it still enjoys, with about 95% of planetary yearly supply under its direct control), followed by phase 2 in which it used that monopoly control to create a 2 tier global price structure (ie, domestic Chinese supplies that are plentiful and cheap, vs ex-China supplies which are unreliable and expensive)....

     

    The 2nd half of phase 2 called for utilizing the availability and price of rare earths to force China's global competitors to close down their home factories and research and development centers and relocate them to China. This phase is far advanced, and is nearing a conclusion as their dim-witted opponents in the West seem to be discovering that there might be something going on which they need to pay attention to...

     

    Phase 3 features a full retreat from the wild laissez faire environement which built Phase 1 and 2 as the Chinese government constructs its rare earth and strategic minerals Cartel, and absorbs or shuts down the thousands of outlaw miners and tiny private rare earth refiners and traders. By the time Lynas, MCP and/or GWM achieve any significant production, The Cartel will be poised to do battle, positioned to either club opponents by selectively manipulating the puny ex-China rare earth markets, or lure additional relocations of key manufacturing tech to China by providing low domestic prices.

     

    Speculating that the Cartel (which is of course nothing more than a false face proxy for the Communist Party leadership) might dabble in local Malay politics or similar dirty tricks elsewhere might also be a wise precaution.

     

    The geopolitical risks in this sector cannot, imo, be overstated - and are incredibly dangerous to ignore.
    6 Mar 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    u4eah,
    Lynas finds itself now being an election year political football. The rally last month had Anwar speak about Lynas as an opposition platform issue. While the position is very unscientific, some ignorant Malaysians are moved by the stupidity.

     

    The Australian Greens have been uniquely stupid for some time. I think this part of the story is nonsense. But Lynas is getting close to a Malaysian election and would do well to finish up IMO.

     

    The politicians and press want the story and don't want a business compromise. But I think the compromise is near and when the court case fails the issue with quiet down. And when the opposition losses like they have for 50 years the issue will end.

     

    As for the GWMG situation... we will see. Thinking the Th storage permit solves the problems seems naive to me. I would point to the South African denial of the GWMG Prospector's Rights application as the first signs of future trouble right now.

     

    GWMG will simply have to progress further to know how they will solve this likely issue. Having owned several miner's with African mines in the past, I fully expect the issue in the future. I can also tell you having a Chinese partner is not the easiest way to win the hearts and minds of Africans IMO. But mining politics are an issues that surface with miners either at the very beginning or at the end. I see GWMG more in the middle right now. I do wish them luck.

     

    As I said before I fully support every miner with sensible environmental positions (Moly, Lynas, GW, ALK, ect.). I think society has gotten way too NIMBY and extreme on this topic.
    6 Mar 2012, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Here are some signs of small progress for Lynas...

     

    Lynas still believes there will be no radioactive waste and the government is still (apparently) assisting toward finding a suitable PDF location, but, regardless, Lynas is prepared to take responsibility for any residue long-term and they have sent a letter saying as much...http://bit.ly/zEMmsc

     

    Also, it looks like NC is taking a more pro-active view toward resolving things with the opposition. Obviously, this situation is more about opposing politics at this level, rather than anti-Lynas per se, but at least he's trying...http://bit.ly/yyNDtW
    6 Mar 2012, 03:28 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I bet he has a lot of sleepless nights.
    7 Mar 2012, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    IBC Alloys (IAALF.PK) (IB.V) was mentioned in this interview with James Passin of Firebird Funds http://bit.ly/xVSdFb
    6 Mar 2012, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Pele Mountain Enters Agreement to Acquire Rare Earth Mining Claims Surrounded by Molycorp, 1800 Metres from the Mountain Pass Mine

     

    http://bit.ly/wkmrzV

     

    March 6, 2012 - Toronto - Pele Mountain Resources Inc. (TSX Venture: GEM; OTCQX: GOLDF) (“Pele” or the “Company”) today announced that it has entered into a binding Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Agreement”) to purchase 11 contiguous mining claims (the “Simon Rare Earth Claims”), which are surrounded by Molycorp’s Mountain Pass rare earth property in south-eastern California. The seller of the Simon Rare Earth Claims is a company (the “Seller”) owned by the family of Peter Simon II, the son of the prospector who originally staked much of the Mountain Pass area more than 60 years ago.
    6 Mar 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I hate to say it, but based on the photo Pele is a little close to Moly's Turtle Farm Habitat. Hope it all works out.

     

    http://bit.ly/z8wKTX
    6 Mar 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Give credit where credit is due. TB, has been calling for a correction in March for months. Today is starting to look that way. Looking forward to a real jolly night on the ASX. Think I'll try to get the wife to go out tonight. Can't see staring at the red ticks on this dog of a trade tonight. Best wishes to everyone and I hope we all do well tomorrow.
    6 Mar 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks chi, very gracious of you. As always when I predict bad things, I regret that this might come to pass. If its any comfort to anyone, I also predict a brief correction falling between 10-15%, ie, a moderate one. After that we enter a "delicate" condition in which geopolical events (middle east, european sovereign debt, chinese macro slowdown, etc) could hit at any point beyond the correction...

     

    If we can dodge the various bullets, we might surprise to the upside in the markets before the summer doldrums set in (and the annoying greek chorus chanting "...sell in May and go away..." starts up).
    7 Mar 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Spot on Chi! We were discussing that back in October I think, ...maybe November. He was right on on that one!

     

    TB,
    ...and you tell me you don't have a crystal ball. Come on?!?!
    7 Mar 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    But TB I have already been hearing a distant chant of "Start selling in March before it gets harsh!" :-)
    7 Mar 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Some Facts On Radioactivity
    By Dr. Looi Hoong Wah
    Kuantan
    Potassium tablets your doctor gives you for high blood pressure are highly radioactive with a radioactivity of 32 Bq/gm and we need about 2-3gm of potassium a day to stay alive.
    The radioactivity comes from potassium-40. This is more than five times the radioactivity of the Lynas waste which contains only 6 Bq/gm mainly from Thorium-232.
    All potassium that we eat daily contains potassium-40 and the normal dietary potassium would give a total of about 80 Bq a day. The so-called sodium free salt recommended by health experts to combat high blood pressure is nothing more than highly radioactive potassium salt.
    Thorium-232 decay produces only alpha particles which can be stopped by a piece of paper and cannot penetrate even the outer layer of the skin, whereas potassium-40 in our diet produces highly dangerous gamma and beta rays from all the three types of beta decay, ie electron emission, electron capture and positron emission.
    The longer the half life of a substance the less radioactive it is. Thorium-232 found in the Lynas waste has an incredibly long half-life of 14 billion years and as such is much less radioactive than the potassium-40 whose half-life is only 1.25 billion years.
    Below is a comparison of radioactivity in Bq (number of atoms decaying in 1 second)
    >> Pure thorium-232 = 4,080 Bq/gm
    >> Pure potassium-40 = 254,000 Bq/gm
    >> Naturally occurring potassium = 31,825 Bq/gm
    >> Lynas rare earth waste = 6 Bq/gm

     

    It has been estimated that in the worst case scenario, the radiation risk from the Lynas plant is only 0.002 mSv/yr.

     

    In Ramsar, Iran the naturally occurring radiation is extremely high at 260 mSv/yr. This is 13,000,000% higher than the expected worst case scenario in Kuantan. And the people in Ramsar have been found to be healthier and live longer than Iranians in other parts of the country. There is no increase in the number of cancer cases.
    We are exposed to radiation all of our lives. We get 4,400 Bq of radiation from the potassium-40 with a further 3,000 Bq from carbon-14 which forms part of our body tissues.
    There is no way we can escape from radiation. Even outer space is full of radiation.

     

    Dr. Looi Hoong Wah
    Kuantan
    6 Mar 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Good article, thanks Chi.

     

    Malaysia's New Straits Times now points to an additional re-assurance: "LYNAS Corporation has submitted a letter of undertaking to the government that it will take out the plant's wastes from Malaysia if it cannot find a suitable site for a permanent disposal facility (PDF) for the by-products generated at its rare earth processing plant in Gebeng."

     

    Read more: Lynas gives guarantee - General - New Straits Times http://bit.ly/Avn2Si
    6 Mar 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for that link Mercy.

     

    "Therefore, there is a directive (for Lynas) to dispose of its residues away from people so that they will feel comfortable and safe, psychologically and emotionally," said International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob in a joint press statement issued here yesterday."

     

    So even if experts say the waste is not dangerous, that is irrelevant? What counts is how people "feel" as opposed to the facts of the situation.

     

    The statement does not say what proportion of the affected population can trigger an uncomfortable and unsafe feeling. Majority, thirty percent, twenty percent, one person? Of course, if a trigger amount was set up, than people will be screaming that their feelings are being ignored. So basically, the statement means that Lynas waste must be shipped away from the site.

     

    Since expert opinion is irrelevant, that means ALL Lynas waste needs to be shipped out because no one trusts expert opinion as to the health hazard represented by the waste materials.

     

    "Dispose of residues away from people." How far away from people? Who decides that, the same experts that the people don't trust. After all, what counts is how the people feel. If one person does not want Lynas waste dumped within 1,000 miles of their home, can that block disposal into that dump?

     

    Why would such a "feel good rule" only apply for Lynas waste. Many people probably don't feel good about the presence of waste.

     

    If Malaysian locals can feel uncomfortable and unsafe, why not Malaysian non-locals? Wouldn't the same "feel good rule" apply for all Malaysians? If people don't feel safe about Lynas waste materials in the country, shouldn't all Lynas waste materials be shipped out of Malaysia?

     

    Of course, the statement is ridiculous. But does it represent government policy? What is it going to cost Lynas to transport waste materials to a local dump? Will the locals allow the waste materials to be shipped within Malaysia? If they are afraid of the waste, they are going to be afraid of it being shipped on public transportation routes. What will it cost Lynas to ship the materials out of the country?

     

    Than we have this interesting tidbit:

     

    Mustapa, Adnan and the relevant technical agencies -- AELB and Department of Environment -- had also met representatives on Monday from various non-governmental organizations, including Chinese and student associations in Pahang to explain issues concerning Lynas.

     

    Chinese organization that needs to have Lynas issues explained to them? I guess those Chinese organizations need to feel comfortable and safe psychologically and emotionally as well.
    8 Mar 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh, the joys of democracy...

     

    Mob rule. Where feelings trump truth.
    8 Mar 2012, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Is Malaysia making them post a bond for that too? ;-)
    8 Mar 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    LYC- TRUTH vs MYTH

     

    - Various contributors here, and most notably Chi, have written extensively on the many myths surrounding the LYC story.
    - Found this 20 point presentation posted on "Hot Copper" today
    that summarizes everything nicely !

     

    http://bit.ly/zCYf0Q
    7 Mar 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    SRSR has dipped $0.017, sure could use some good news from them. Buying opportunity or ????
    8 Mar 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Horizon on this one is 2015+. If its too long, better to pick one closer to launch...

     

    Occasional volatility means this is a potential candidate at these prices for a trade. Good odds it will be back above .03 over the next 3 months...

     

    Commodity-based equities will be reacting strongly to the ongoing currency wars (note that Brazil is dropping interest rates now and wading into the fray). BOJ is still intervening in the yen, as their recent attempt fell flat and they are desperate to help exports. Japan lacks the resources to win this battle longer term, but they have managed to reset the clock for now (I would think the yen might crawl up to about 84 or even 85). Non-oil commodity-based economies (Brazil, Australia, Canada, South Africa) will be eyeing interest rates and reacting to the death spiral dance of the larger currencies ($, euro, yen), so look for Brazil's action to spread quickly.

     

    China is still the controlling factor, and they can make things run in a counter-intuitive direction (ie, reduce commodity consumption while simultaneously supporting commodity nations' currency exchange rates). When you have sufficient foreign exchange credit, you really CAN make water flow uphill...
    8 Mar 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Ung,

     

    I saw that and wanted to pounce, but it seems that some peon peed in my powder horn; result - no dry powder. :-(

     

    ...well, not enough to make it worthwhile at any rate.
    8 Mar 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    SRSR had quite a range today from $0.017 to $0.0255 or .0085!! If we'd bought at the low and sold at the high, it would have been a very nice gain.
    8 Mar 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Sure would have! Can you say "Tripled my money"? I did end up buying a little chunk today at $.017. We'll see what becomes of it...
    8 Mar 2012, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been trading this one in this fashion (looking for a 20-40% channel) for a long time.
    8 Mar 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Lynas.. Blind faith now.

     

    Don't want to sell. I'd run at a loss if I did..

     

    They could go tits up. Too many Chinese with too much invested in the monopoly to see some Aussie upstart whoop their arse.

     

    Hoping for the best though.
    8 Mar 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its complicated, but the best hope for ex-China rare earth miners might ironically lie in China's primary geopolitical goals...

     

    Which is to monopolize end product production and technology, rather than commodity mining.

     

    The mining has been a means to an end...

     

    And once China's shadowy leaders determine that they have gotten as much as they can from monopolizing supply, it is more likely that they will shift to developing reliable supplies to supplement their vanishing native resource.

     

    TIMING is the great variable, and the thing difficult to predict.

     

    I believe the process for absorbing the high technology advantage of the West is well-advanced, but still with a year or more to run. During that period the initial fumblings of what I suspect they view as "future key raw material sources for glorious Chinese factories" will bounce and quake in the wind tunnel of chaos lying between one geopolical goal and another.

     

    Until we see their REAL opponents enter the playing field (ie, the EU and the US) with geopolitical agendas of their own, the wierd kabuki play will continue.

     

    Frankly, the passivity of our moronic leadership never ceases to amaze me...
    8 Mar 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Grim outlook for Lynas.
    8 Mar 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Albert,

     

    Why do you say that?
    8 Mar 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    The Chinese are the industry leaders for both the mining and the refining of rare earths so far. It would take a lot more effort for the other countries to seriously compete with them since the Chinese seem adroit in playing their market advantages.
    http://bit.ly/zq5pkK
    http://bit.ly/z4b3qa
    9 Mar 2012, 09:37 AM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    The posts below from Tripleblack and Chihawk voice my concerns but in addition you cannot dismiss the point of view put forward by Jack Lifton in his most recent article.

     

    Political delays + NIMBY + possible Chinese interference + potential Chinese oversupply of LREE's almost at will + what is it the LAMP plant has cost so far ($400 million)? = grim prospects.
    9 Mar 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Albertin,
    I voiced my concern below, but do not see it Jack's way. I know Jack is liked by many, but I am totally unimpressed from my investor view. It is notable that Jack is still commenting on GW but not on Steen. I remain very pessimistic on the Steen drills.

     

    -LREE is assumed and appears way too soon for the guess. Also Lynas has clear contacts in this area and should be fine. In addition, several of the tenants in Gebang will use LREE's and shipping them in while possible is less reliable and adds costs that should make Lynas Ce and La supply more manageable. Also, based on Mount Weld it is likely IMO that Duncan will be the first HREE resource in production.

     

    -LAMP costs are rising with the political BS and delays. But I can't see how Molycorp does it cheaper. Also, the rest of the proposed processors are unfunded and there is some big questions about the cost estimates.

     

    Bottom line is Lynas deserves a slap for recent nonperformance. But they are the best business model and way out in front of the other projects. I'm not selling down here. And the minute Lynas refocuses themselves they can sort things out pretty quick. I just think they need to see their current mistakes and get back to building and getting to positive cash flow as soon as possible.
    9 Mar 2012, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Albert,

     

    I interpreted your comment - "grim prospects" - to mean that Lynas' chances of success were not good. If I'm interpreting that correctly, I have to respectfully disagree. I'm still optimistic that Lynas will succeed.

     

    All of this crap that Malaysia is pulling is just political games IMO. People are worried about their seats so they're trying to appease everyone. It's all show to me. As Chi would say, they just don't have any stones! If the incumbents win the election, I think you'll hear a considerably different tone from the politicos there. My WAG is that they'll do an "about face" just as quickly as we've seen them do in the past few weeks.

     

    The court cases and appeals are just crap IMO. I can't see that Lynas has any chance of losing any of that.

     

    True their costs continue to rise, but there is sooo much money there to play with, as Chi pointed those costs are amortized over the life of the mine in most cases. In Lynas' case, where the LAMP will be providing service to multiple mines, the costs are either distributed further or if those costs are only applied to Mt. Weld, then the other mines become astronomically more profitable.

     

    The way I see it, Lynas' big issue is the same as it was last August, WASTE. I don't agree that it should be an issue, but I think it's the biggest hurdle they face. I see 3 potential scenarios playing out there: 1 - When the politicos change their tune, we may very well find them cooperating with Lynas and finding a place for LT storage of the non-radioactive waste (how stupid does that sound?) 2 - I see it as entirely possible that Australia would take it back. Sounds crazy I know, but to be honest, provided Lynas can actually process and re-market the stuff, it's in the country's best interest to do so. Why should they try to penalize Lynas for putting the LAMP in another country? I'm sure Lynas would much rather have kept it at home (although labor would have been more expensive). The Australian economy is headed right down the proverbial sheeter at the moment. Bring the stuff back, process it and sell it. Building the processing facility will add jobs both in construction and on-going processing. Australia gets a little bump to their GDP. They get not only new found, but also incremental tax revenue. 3 - I'm wrong on both accounts and we're all screwed. But I don't think that happens. Also, whatever happened to the idea of turning it into concrete blocks and sinking it into the ocean? Make it into some kind of artificial reef or something. If it's not harmful in its current state, how harmful can it be after it has been diluted and then dissolves in tiny quantities over a period of many years.

     

    Provided that they can find a solution to the waste storage issue, I don't see the risks to their success being any greater than they were 6 months ago. It's just time. I know "time is money", but it really just becomes an issue of cash flow, there is plenty of value in the assets.

     

    As to selling, well each investor has to do what's right for him/her. I will tell you that I'm not selling my shares. In fact, I was considering buying more @ $1.12 - 1.13 If I'd had any more powder available to allocate to long-term & speculative investments, I would have.
    10 Mar 2012, 04:42 AM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - Most recent peer into Jack Liftons "REE Crystal Ball"

     

    - http://bit.ly/yN6yxE
    8 Mar 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton concludes: Size matters in a high-school locker room. Only skills and break evens matter in the world of mining…

     

    This may sound cute, but it flies in the face of the Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, Xstrata, and other top mining business models out there. The largest sector for M & A by far in the last decade is mining and resources. Why? The economics of scale has proven itself over and over. Jack has some point when the thought is applied to the REE world, but this sweeping comment is more wrong than right in mining and long term it is wrong in REE's too IMO.

     

    It is true that a project with capital costs too high to achieve funding will not survive. But the a key component in "break evens" is the amortization of the investment and the length of the mine life. (Note to Moly from last conference call) Cost of Production should consider both cost to produce goods sold AND amortized capital investment over the course of a project's mine life. So size of mine and production capacity play a significant role in these break even calculations.

     

    Steen will only be Goldilocks if the drills show it is large enough with a long enough mine life to justify the investment. And while tolling other African concentrate and storing Th in Steen could help manage some these costs, they do not make the calculation moot. Moreover, I fully expect African tolling to face BEE charges and there is an environmental issue sending concentrate through other countries if the radioactivity levels are high (just ask Lynas where the levels are low).

     

    But processor size is also key. Once a plant is built a modular add on is far less than to start a new plant. Also when a resource is large like Mount Weld it offers multiple means of growth with low cost expansion. Lynas will have to work the metallurgy for Duncan (and perhaps Crown) in the future. But Duncan is probably the shortest timeline and the lowest cost of production for any HREE source because it is next to the Mount Weld CLD. Add in the cash flow Lynas should have and it is clear how the Lynas size can drive their model.

     

    But this is not a Lynas versus GW issue. Moly did the NEO deal in large part because scale is key to them being reliable for their customers. It also expands avenues that make it easier to play in all of the different individual REE markets. Lynas, Moly, GW and others are all addressing the issue of selling their products likely in oversupply and trying to have enough of the CREE's. This is an on going task, but scale and playing in more markets with more customer options makes this issue easier.

     

    All of these things are not new. These are largely accepted truisms in most mining. And while Jack presents himself as "knowing" at times, he is in the minority and arguing against a mountain of information on the subject. Time will tell. It always does...
    9 Mar 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/ArzLYb

     

    Molycorp buys NeoMaterials for 1.3 billion.
    8 Mar 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Wow! That works out to roughly US$11.41, and that's higher than NEMFF's 52 week high. I guess that possibility had been mentioned before, but it adds to a good day.
    8 Mar 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This was something we speculated might occur recently in the wake of the large dilutive investment from south america...

     

    The earlier small magnet maker purchase was quixotic (too small to fill the bill) but this one has meat on the bones...

     

    Tomorrow should be very interesting for my MCP-PA...

     

    Look for analyst input, which could transform this play.

     

    I recently reviewed my largest REE holdings (Lynas, MolyCorp and GWM, in that order) with an eye to bailing to wait out a potential March-April correction...

     

    I finally elected to hold tight to all three.

     

    If Lynas can get some relief from the Malay courts over the next 2 weeks, and GWM line up some funding, this could be a trifecta for me... Odds might be improving...
    8 Mar 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    TB, I too am holding tight on Lynas for now. This was always a long-term spec hold for me, and as you say the courts may provide relief next month. It is clear from many postings that the Chinese are likely NOT disinterested parties in the Malaysian LAMP delay tactics. Since I am sure everyone remembers that in 2009 the Australian government rejected a Chinese offer to buy a major stake in Lynas (for national defense reasons) http://bit.ly/xtKoKW -- I suspect Lynas can (if needed) exert some pressure on the AU government to step up to the plate in helping to find alternative solutions to the waste storage issue the locals have so expertly blown out of proportion. In a worse case scenario, I would think Lynas can say to the AU government "help us with a solution if we are so important to AU national defense or else let us sell ourselves to the Chinese at a hefty premium for shareholders." TB, Chi, others -- does this make sense or just wishful thinking on my part?

     

    BTW after a couple hours of trading tonight on the ASX Lynas is up 4% http://bit.ly/wTe3S9

     

    mj
    8 Mar 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Took my profit in NEMFF: A bird in the hand...
    9 Mar 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Australia's government has changed (moved further left) since the days when they were blocking the Lynas sale to China. I believe they are less predictable (and agree with the idea that companies like Lynas are starting to off-shore whatever facilities they can to avoid the headaches at home, ie, an explanation for the LAMP being located in Malaysia rather than Australia). Its ironic that by fleeing from well-known problems with luddites down under, Lynas has blundered into a similar problem in Malaysia. Hopefully they will fight through eventually, but its an unfunny sort of sad joke given the circumstances.

     

    Whether Australia will help Lynas with waste management issues from plants located OUTSIDE Australia is very questionable. I suspect Lynas would have plenty of official support for this problem if the plant were in the outback rather than Malaysia...

     

    As it stands the national government leadership which blocked the sale is being conflated with the provincial government officials stonewalling any chance of assistance should Lynas find themselves forced to export waste from the LAMP. We have not seen the PTB weigh in on this topic just yet...
    9 Mar 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Thanks very much TB for your perspective. Extremely helpful as always.
    mj
    9 Mar 2012, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    More good Lynas stuff. The early portion contains the same info Chi posted from Dr. Looi Hoong Wah, but read on. There are loads of good morsels below.

     

    http://t.co/RsHSUkne
    8 Mar 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    Posted on the Exchange:

     

    From Lynas dated March 9, 2012.
    Lynas understands that an appeal to the Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation has been lodged under section 32 of the Atomic Energy Licensing Act in relation to the decision to approve the temporary operating license for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant. Lynas understands that the appeal will be heard in April.
    8 Mar 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So much for March 20. More waiting, more time for the luddite press to caper and dance...
    8 Mar 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5079) | Send Message
     
    How do you think the preferred will do tomorrow? MCP-pA
    8 Mar 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Reuters quoting Lynas as saying it sees Malaysia rare earths plant timeline intact : http://reut.rs/z5aIXX
    8 Mar 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Another briefing from AELB...http://bit.ly/yuDa45. Jump to the 25 min mark or so to get to Lynas matters. In fact, at 26 min comes interesting comments and FAQ's. A few points from what was discussed:
    1) Lynas is 95% complete at this stage (according to them)
    2) The earliest date for a hearing with the Minister on the appeal of the TOL approval is 9 Apr (30 days from now).
    3) Malaysian standards are higher than international standards with regard to transporting the concentrate with NORM. This is not new news, but it does make me realize that part of the problem here. In their intention to be conservative and careful, they have actually raised more concern. Treating this concentrate as 'radioactive' when no one else would has scared the public rather than have them understand that it was intended to appease them.
    4) The TOL has been approved but not issued. It's worth watching that bit at least (maybe with an adult beverage in hand) then watch this: http://bit.ly/wGzQe4.

     

    LYC up nicely in Aus for a change. Have a nice weekend everyone.
    9 Mar 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff Freo. Thanks! ..and you too!
    9 Mar 2012, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think the Moly/ Neo deal is showing how undervalued the sector is right now. I also think Moly and Neo were smart to do the deal. Neo has been undervalued with Manquench stuck in China and having no reliable (non-Chinese) feedstock. Clearly, the deal suggests Pitanga is nonsense- a given at this point IMO.

     

    And while the performance division has good value for Moly, I doubt it alone would justify the $1.3 billion price tag while Moly is in the middle of Project Phoenix. I have to believe Moly is seeing some issues with Phoenix that they feel Neo can help them address. That surprises me in that Silmet gave them good processing knowledge. So was Manquench worth it to toll the Mountain Pass HREE's? Maybe.

     

    It is also possible now that the gas plant is up and the Phoenix shells are in place Moly is realizing they are out of time with engineering. The Phoenix development has always felt like there are redesigns going on behind the scenes. Weather that speculation is right or wrong, getting Neo should help Phoenix.

     

    Neo at a minimum:
    -Gives Moly further processing capability while Phoenix builds (and I think there is much to do).
    -Dramatically improves the downstream capabilities of the combined company.
    -Dramatically improves the downstream intellectual property that Silmet does not due and Tolleston likely was never advanced enough to do.
    -Widens the companies customer base by adding Neo client, diversifying based on the different stages, and improving the quality of production in the manufacturing the REE elements.
    -MOST IMPORTANT Allows Moly's downstream production to match the large mining capacity. This is the key because Moly has always planned to use economy of scale to address the light bias of Mountain Pass. Noe can expand the downstream quickly to match the mining scale. This point is essential to the eventual Phase 2 success IMO.

     

    So competition wise what does the merger mean to the space? On the positive side it means HREE's will still increase in value. The advanced products Neo is capable of producing require more HREE's than Mountain Pass can provide. Moly may process HREE's at Manquench but they need a better source to keep up with the rest of the scale in their model IMO.

     

    The merger pressures LREE prices to some extent long term. The merger solidifies Moly going to 40k tpa and this will impact the LREE market. Until Phoenix 2 and LAMP 2 are up and running Ce and La prices will be OK, but after that the sector may need Neo and other manufacturers to develop additional demand for these products. I would not be surprised if Neo does this much quicker than people expect.

     

    The Moly/Neo merger also intensifies the downstream competition. All the manufacturers have faced this competition as oxide prices went up. But the key now is the supply Neo can add downstream with Phoenix production.

     

    The margins previously seen downstream may be effected by the likely increased production and upward price pressure on HREE's. Much of that can be addressed by developing better end products. This is likely where future JV's and advancements will occur IMO. As Siemens and Rhodia (through Lynas), Neo, Vacuumschmelze (through GW) compete and develop, I expect end product prices and margins to fall till demand develops. This could create bumps in the road but will eventually be the foundation of this new industry.

     

    Long term this JV aides growth and expansion in this industry. And such developments give substance and gravitas to the sector. Rare earths will go from a trading fad to the next big industry based on their end uses. This merger supports and accelerates that development IMO.
    9 Mar 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    1) Lynas' project manager was saying 95% in January. And even if Lynas is doing 2% per month that is PATHETIC. Lynas and Malaysia are screwing around way too much. I hope Moly and Neo's efforts make Lynas and Malaysia realize that the current efforts SUCK! We are not updated and we appear wrapped up in the stupidity. I'm tired of the company politics and feel the Malaysian government is a failure for making the psyche of their ignorant masses the priority at this stage.

     

    Likewise, Lynas failing to progress and update shareholders during this process has been weak as well. It amazes me how paralyzed and legitimizing these fools can be to unscientific opposition ignorance. The Lynas legal team is bad. The Lynas PR team is worse. And the UGL (the Lynas Phase 1 construction) team is a disaster to a near biblical level.

     

    2) Perhaps the Minister will bring integrity to this process and take a stand, but that view has few examples in the past to point to for support.

     

    3) Malaysian scientific standards are higher, but their respect for science is lower. The approach makes Malaysia no more safe and makes LAMP much less functional. The population is a monumental development project starting from a shockingly low base IMO.

     

    4) "Approved but not issued" is the equivalent of saying we made a decision on wisdom but do not have the stones to make it matter. No disrespect to the Third World, but I can't see why their standard of living is not greater than Malaysia.

     

    Lynas will succeed in spite of Malaysia due to the great resource. But the inadequacy of Malaysia is so extreme and pronounced it does limit the full potential of this company.

     

    The funny thing is the Moly/NEO merger is the only real progress I've seen in awhile and it does little to push Phoenix along. More likely, it just improves the current situation till Phoenix is done. But watching Lynas, doubting Steen feasibility, questioning Phoenix progress, and seeing the rest of the projects with little chance of raising the capital they need in the near future I am humored by all of the green. Glad holders are having a good day. Forgive my using the good day to get this rant of frustration off my chest.
    9 Mar 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its OK chi, such rants done so well are an asset just as are projections done in rosier times. All mix together to form the whole.

     

    It is striking how these three companies have found paths with similar failings. One would have thought that things would be much different now, but the timelines keep stumbling for wildly different reasons, but with the results keeping the three still roughly grouped as though all the accidental errors had never occurred.
    9 Mar 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Anybody know about this?

     

    "Anti-Lynas group urges Singapore to disallow shipments into port"

     

    http://bit.ly/Av0PmK

     

    Apparently the concentrate goes through Singapore on the way to Kuantan...
    9 Mar 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    toly,
    The concentrate is scheduled to go through Singapore. I believe in both Australia, International Waters, and Singapore the concentrate is measuring below the hazardous level so the shipment should be considered non-hazardous. Also, due to the large development of Singapore, I think the radioactive expose in Singapore is greater than what occurs at LAMP. Of course none of that will stop the presumptive international disrespect of these jobless morons.

     

    What next? Does the dumb ass Malaysian government want these fanatics to scare Singapore and then build more policy around the uninformed Sing-psyche? I've got a better idea. Follow the damn law and move on. Malaysia is a disgrace from the government down to the village idiot.
    9 Mar 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully, Malaysia will watch how professionally and efficiently Singapore deals with this nuisance protest...
    9 Mar 2012, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    I think you're right Freo. I'd be very surprised to see them tip toeing around or putting up with any crap from a handful of whiners.
    10 Mar 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    For what its worth, I'm told Dawei in Myanmar is supposed to grab some shipping market share from Singapore in the coming years as Myanmar opens up. Not sure how well Lynas can transport in that direction, just mentioning what little data I do know.

     

    Map: http://g.co/maps/wtkzw
    12 Mar 2012, 10:51 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp's Mark Smith on CNBC at http://bit.ly/AoRoW6
    9 Mar 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp is getting some push-back on this deal because of Neo Materials' China connection. If Lynas and MCP are viewed as competitors, this ought to benefit Lynas.

     

    Lynas had a high last night in Oz of AU$1.22, but closed down a penny -- US$1.23
    12 Mar 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5079) | Send Message
     
    A very bullish article on why to buy MCP...and the preferrerds seem to agree....up $10 since the Neo deal.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Mar 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Update on recent Lynas court hearing: Malaysia Gov't Legal Team Slams Court Action Filed by Residents

     

    Read more: http://bit.ly/w55rTF
    12 Mar 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    LT,
    Thanks for the article. Personally, I don't agree. Moly seems to be getting harder to understand as it grows. I understand the benefits of the merger but feel it is too short term and produces a confused business model. Following the article:

     

    1. Valuation: Saying Moly is cheap relative to juniors not making money is a real cop out IMO. Moly's true growth rate is determined by the certainty of Phoenix completion. If Phoenix completes on time their should be sufficient growth to justify the 30+ PE. But how can one see this merger as supporting either the piecemeal use of Phoenix or the Phoenix story?
    I do agree that NEO was cheap. But having owned NEO I can tell you it was always cheap because it is dependent on China quotas. That story has not changed. In fact an extra layer is added with Moly importing concentrate. And if Phoenix is almost done, then should we assume Moly will export concentrate for six months and then be done? Or does all of this just blur the growth picture and make the lawsuit harder to evaluate?

     

    Vertical Integration: I do think NEO adds vertical integration to Moly. These guys are a leader in performance alloys and will be a major asset long term in this direction. I guess the only thing I would say is now the wrong guy is at the top.
    Constantine Karayannopoulos put together NEO's vertical integration and did a great job minus getting a good mining asset. But Smith has bought everything he knows. Some buys are good and some are not as good, but what does Smith bring to the table? Mining? I suppose. Processing? Doubt it. Not without Silmet and Magnequench. Alloys and metals? Not without NEO. Marketing? Well, Constantine built a model where costs were controlled in China and margins were achieved outside China. Smith hopes to reverse that to some extent. If Moly made Constantine Karayannopoulos the new CEO I'd buy.

     

    New Markets: Please. Moly has gone from trying to be the low cost producer in the ROW markets to now trying to convince us that being the highest cost producer selling in China is a great thing. BS. Mountain Pass is a very light mine. Chine has way more than enough La and Ce already. The Moly of the 90's shipped into China and could not compete. NEO got cheaper concentrate in China than they will ever get from producing and shipping Mountain Pass concentrate. And if Moly sent one bag of XSORBX to China they would copy it and not even need to change the name since it sounds Chinese already.

     

    More Extensive Product Portfolio: This is true. Adding gallium, rhenium, and indium is a benefit. Does it justify the $1.3 billion now leveraged in a bridge loan? I'd say no. Moly's acquisitions are sapping their balance sheet at this point. And if Phoenix runs into more problems, the balance sheet could get very messy. Honestly, they would do well to put a secondary out there now before this gets more complicated.

     

    Synergies: There is a lot of overlap in promises here. If Phoenix is as promised only a small part of this deal makes sense. NEO does develop the vertical integration of Moly. But to feed that integration Moly needs even more HREE's and they were short before this deal. The HREE stocks jumped with Moly and NEO on Friday. That did make sense to me.

     

    National Stockpile: Well, if the US or China want to stockpile Ce, La or Sm Moly is ready. But if it is CREE's stockpiled I doubt Moly's phone rings either way.
    12 Mar 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On the topic of Moly's purchase of Neo, I see it as clearly meant to buy what Moly would otherwise have to build/develop at great expense: Magnet manufacturing capacity and proprietory materials technology. Neo does very little processing to produce concentrate and has only a token mining project claim, so its clear they were not gobbled up by MCP for those things. It really solves only part of Moly's HREE question, since Neo may know how to process HREE concentrates and produce appropriate alloys, but will not bring new sources of either to the table - that remains something Moly must do.

     

    NEO's long vulnerability to Chinese export quotas have, including those for 2012, been a potential issue rather than an actual weakness. So long as they are producing products (chiefly Magnaquench) in China which are yet exempt from the same quotas which cover raw materials (regardless how highly refined), this continues to be true. For a long time I have observed Neo but avoided taking the plunge due to the danger that China would eventually extend their REE quotas to cover the finished products and subassemblies exported by Neo's partly owned subsidiaries. This danger still hangs out there on the horizon, but like many geopolitical risks, it is more theoretical than real just yet.

     

    Its noteworthy that much of the production flowing from the Neo subsidiaries is consumed within China, and thus unlikely to ever be part of an export control system. IMO it has been China's plan all along to create the sort of situation seen with NEO, where the higher margin, technologically advanced products are made in China and either consumed there or exported (rather than a narrow focus on the export of concentrates or highly refined metals).

     

    I would be surprised if MCP initially shipped much of their production NEO's way, into China, nor do I believe this was the intent. More likely would be that we will see follow-on development (perhaps at SilMet or elsewhere ex-China) of production facilities using NEO's knowhow and market access. Should MCP ultimately develop rare earth offerings beyond the lighter elements, then yes, they could indeed end up supplying product to their own Chinese subsidiaries and thus gain access to that market... But I would not expect this much before 2016+.

     

    Thus far Moly has shown a propensity for spotting companies in danger of losing their supply source and snapping them up on the cheap... And this is one way to bujild a vertically intergrated company...

     

    But merging so many disparate corporate cultures CAN be a daunting task. Time is needed, yet this is happening in a sector under extremely high geopolitical stress running at breakneck speed... We will see if they really CAN assemble the body of the race car while zooming around the race track.

     

    .
    12 Mar 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton: "A common pundit error at this point is to declare that the ores with the highest concentrations of the rare earths are the most valuable. The most valuable rare-earth ores are those from which the rare earths can be extracted efficiently at the lowest cost per unit........
    no-one has yet constructed a SX operation with the capability to separate the HANREs.
    I have been told that a HANRE-separation-capable facility is, in fact, being constructed in the Western Cape province of South Africa, by Great Western Minerals Group, but I do not know the timetable for that project. I do know that the punditry has now figured out that the HANREs are the most desirable of the REEs, but, once again, the highest grade, largest total ore tonnages are being mindlessly touted as ‘the best investments.’"
    http://bit.ly/yN6yxE

     

    Admittedly, I am cynical about Jack Lifton's work when it comes to Great Western Minerals. I do read him and cannot recall any negative words about GW. I find his articles often flag pivots in the GW story. Granted this could be coincidental, but I have been looking for a tell by Jack on the long awaited GW drill results.

     

    Historical numbers suggest GW's Steen will have the highest concentrations of the rare earths. But now Jack's focus seems to be on a HANRE-separation-capable facility being constructed in the Western Cape province of South Africa, by Great Western Minerals Group. That seems odd to me. I can only assume he is referring to the GQD design. But my understanding is GQD has made it clear they are not providing funding and GW has yet to raise the funds as well. So where is the construction and is there a press release or article on what would be an exciting construction project?

     

    Or are we headed for drill results that will make Steen look small and modest and instead the story will shift to be about the mysterious GQD plant design? I don't pretend to know what is going on and just speculate with everyone else. But amidst the usual chorus of worship for Jack I have to say this was his worst article yet.

     

    No doubt a hard rock HREE separations plant outside China will be a game changer, but with no evidence or proof what's the point? Matamac claims progress in this area and I would be more interested in what they have to say on the subject. And Lynas has been working on the metallurgy of Duncan (likely with the help of Rhodia) since 2010.

     

    Moreover, ignoring metallurgy is bad geology and vice versa in the rare earth world. In an effort to assert the importance of metallurgy Jack has disrespected the geology issues. And assuming the Chinese will instantly solve the metallurgy of Steen while further assuming other ROW projects will struggle to figure out their metallurgy is strange to me.

     

    I can understand suggesting monazite and xenotime projects over Eudialyte projects. But in the case of Duncan it is churchite and xenotime, in addition to secondary monazite. http://bit.ly/zNpCAq
    It is a drilled and established HREE source (much higher CREO's than Steen historicals) likely to expand. It is metallurgy that has been in the works for a while from a funded company likely to have unencumbered free cash flow in a few months. But that is not a story? Rather a mysterious design on an unfunded plant for a small mine that has yet to be drilled or studied for metallurgy is the story? No wonder I am looking for other explanations for writing this article.
    12 Mar 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Current status of the LAMP
    MAJOR MILESTONES TO DATE
    LAMP construction: 96% complete (end of February)
    Ready-for-Start-Up program (operational preparedness): >90% complete
    Malaysia headcount: 249 (now at 90% of total expected workforce)
    Pre-commissioning test packs: >60% complete
    Temporary Operating Licence for the LAMP approved
    Phase 2 funding secured in April 2011 and construction permits received in Sept 2011
    Customer contracts signed in each market segment and for each type of product
    Lynas is on track for first feed to kiln and first production in Q2 2012
    http://bit.ly/AmdUj9
    (Slide 14)
    I must be getting greedy, but anything less than "first feed" is good but not wildly exciting as an update. Still, it is an update and striping out the political noise really shows Lynas is in fact moving forward.
    12 Mar 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Chi-
    Comparing your bullet points above to the Feb 2012 Investor Presentation:
    LAMP construction: 91% complete
     Ready-for-Start-Up program (operational preparedness): 91% complete
     Malaysia headcount: 236 (now at 85% of total expected workforce)
     Pre-commissioning test packs: 33% complete
     Temporary Operating Licence for the LAMP approved
     Phase 2 funding secured in April 2011 and construction permits received in Sept 2011
     Customer contracts signed in each market segment and for each type of product

     

    We have progressed from 91% to 96%. That's good. My Malaysian contact tells me there have been a lot of leaks in the system that have needed repair (mostly in the fire safety system, I believe). Looks like they are getting there though.

     

    The ready for start up is not progressing very quickly. This must suggest plant completion has held them up here.

     

    Nice to see the pre-commisioning progress has jumped.

     

    All in all, I'm still a bit frustrated by the lack of clear reporting on progress (what does H1 2012 mean anyway). I guess, though, it's nice to see deadlines have not stretched further. Also H1 2012 is starting to look like May/June production. What we really need to hear is that license to import has been applied for and approved. Then we can start to do the math ourselves. Maybe this: http://bit.ly/A870v6 suggests that Lynas expects to be shipping fairly soon (before April perhaps ?).
    13 Mar 2012, 04:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (2142) | Send Message
     
    Thank you, Chi, for the update.

     

    Tonight WSJ is reporting that: "The Obama administration on Tuesday will bring a new trade case against China that seeks to pressure the country to end its export restrictions on materials used to manufacture hybrid-car batteries, flat-screen TVs and other high-tech goods.

     

    Senior officials in Barack Obama’s administration said the U.S. will ask the World Trade Organization to facilitate talks with China over its curtailment of exports of rare-earth minerals. The U.S. is bringing the case to the WTO along with the European Union and Japan, the officials said."

     

    http://on.wsj.com/zQZAIS
    12 Mar 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This development has been expected for a long time. I don't expect this case to follow the same path as the prior case involving other materials, where China lost the WTO argument (but where its not apparent that the WTO "win" for their customers resulted in China actually toeing the WTO line, at least just yet).

     

    This time China has built an airtight defense involving environmental concerns and the pursuit of "criminal elements", as well as laying out an argument that they require nearly all of the resulting production for domestic consumption. These arguments fall directly into the exemptions set forth in the WTO guidelines and will, imo, mean that this case will drag on forever and will likely be settled largely in China's favor in any event.

     

    The impact of the news itself might move the markets a bit, or lift various companies (chiefly MCP if past practice is any indicator) into the analysis cycle.
    13 Mar 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    If the Chinese are exerting any influence on the Malaysian protest movement, maybe this WTO case would encourage them to lighten up a bit.

     

    In US dollars, Lynas closed at $1.275 in Oz.

     

    US$1.30 in Frankfurt right now.
    13 Mar 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » POTUS is talking about China-rare earths NOW on CNBC...
    13 Mar 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    what did he say?
    13 Mar 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » US, EU and Japan are lodging WTO complaint against Chinese rare earth quota system.
    13 Mar 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Analyst spotlight will now focus once again upon the rare earth sector. Individual stock price reaction will depend upon what they say...
    13 Mar 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I guess flogging anti-China sentiment is good election-year fodder.
    13 Mar 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. Voldemort is needing to simulate possessing an actual spine... Plus this is NOT being initiated by him, but by the Europeans, whose example he slavishly follows. I expect we will be hearing more calls for China to increase the value of the yuan as well...
    13 Mar 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I don't know how the WTO/China row plays out. But if H1 2011 taught us anything, it is that rare earth traders jump in whenever the politics recognizes the value of the strategic metals. No doubt the attention is bullish. Now lets see if the metal page prices start to rise in the coming weeks. That would give us real follow through IMO.
    13 Mar 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    I'm reading this linked article wondering about any other merger deals that might make sense.
    The Canadian firms will probably have to consolidate at some point in the future. But I'm not sure which one of them has the financial clout to go on a buying spree anytime soon.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    13 Mar 2012, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mergers between equals won't advance most of the REE juniors, including the 3 mentioned in the article. If the idea is that MCP will now need to go looking for HREE sources... That is possible, but did not seem to be the point the author was attempting to make.

     

    In fact, he was so vauge I believe it was just a simple fishing expedition, floating 3 often repeated names (REE, AVL and QRM) as candidates for M&A. Without also mentioning the names of some likely buyers,

     

    its not an article that puts forward anything new.
    13 Mar 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    WSJ article: "Beijing Defends Stance on Minerals" http://on.wsj.com/wOt1Q2
    Molycorp and Lynas are mentioned and then it points out that another 4 w/ likely be online in about 5 years.

     

    Elsewhere in today's WSJ, "Heard On The Street" singles out Lynas as having the capacity by 2013 equivalent to almost 40% of China's 2011 exports.

     

    All this publicity has to drive prices.

     

    Last night Lynas was up Downunder at US$1.31.

     

    Alkane up even more at US$1.455 probably based on REEs and gold. An interview at http://bit.ly/xXw9NV
    14 Mar 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): engages GMP securities and ISM Capital LLP as co-lead agents, along with Byron Capital Management ... agents to offer secured convertible bonds.

     

    They mature in 5 years and will convertible into common shares at a rate yet to be determined.

     

    Proceeds used to finish NI 43-101tech report on Steen, advance ppty development, construction of monazite processing facility, construction of separation facility; eqpt purchase and expansion of LCM, and general wkg capital purposes.

     

    This from Dow Jones Newswire- supposed to be on Marketwire, but not there yet.

     

    I'll check in the A.M.

     

    HrdToLove
    14 Mar 2012, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the news HTL.
    Not sure what to think without terms or even the size of the offering. I guess they are planning something large based on:
    GWMG President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Engdahl said, "The proposed secured convertible bond financing is a transformational event for the Company and is key to the completion of the next steps of the Company’s development. Execution of the Company's strategic business plan involves the Company becoming a first mover in the rare earth industry and completing its fully integrated business model. This strategy has been central to the Company's focus and we are extremely pleased to be working with GMP, ISM and Byron on this offering."
    http://bit.ly/yUXTlW

     

    That said a bond investor that would buy a junior' bond without a drill result is a strange breed in my book. Why do the financing before the drill results are out?
    14 Mar 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    GWMG ARRANGES CONVERTIBLE BOND FINANCING;

     

    -
    Great Western Minerals arranges bond financing

     

    2012-03-14 15:38 PT - News Release

     

    Mr. Gary Billingsley reports

     

    GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP ANNOUNCES PROPOSED SECURED CONVERTIBLE BOND FINANCING

     

    Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. has engaged GMP Securities LP and ISM Capital LLP, as co-lead agents, along with Byron Capital Markets Ltd. to act as its exclusive agents in connection with its intention to offer secured convertible bonds.

     

    The bonds will become due five years from issuance and will be convertible into common shares of GWMG at a conversion rate yet to be determined. The most recent closing price of the GWMG shares was 55 cents.

     

    The net proceeds of the proposed offering are intended to be used by the company as follows: (i) to complete a technical report on the company's Steenkampskraal property in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 -- Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects; (ii) to advance the development of the company's Steenkampskraal operation; (iii) for the construction of the company's monazite processing facility; (iv) for the construction of the company's separation facility; (v) for equipment purchases and expansion of Less Common Metals Limited; and (vi) for general working capital purposes.

     

    GWMG president and chief executive officer Jim Engdahl said: "The proposed secured convertible bond financing is a transformational event for the company and is key to the completion of the next steps of the company's development. Execution of the company's strategic business plan involves the company becoming a first mover in the rare earth industry and completing its fully integrated business model. This strategy has been central to the company's focus and we are extremely pleased to be working with GMP, ISM and Byron on this offering."

     

    Concurrently, GWMG is pleased to announce the appointment of Robert Gilmore and George Ireland to the company's board of directors, subject to regulatory approval.

     

    Mr. Gilmore has been chairman of Eldorado Gold Corporation since 2009, having served on the board as an independent director since 2003 and as chairman of the audit committee since 2004. He also serves on the board of Fortuna Silver Mines. Mr. Gilmore, a certified public accountant and financial consultant, is a graduate of the University of Denver with a bachelor of science degree in business administration, accounting. He has been the chief financial officer of Dakota Mining Corporation and Teamshare Inc. Mr. Gilmore, a member of the Colorado Society of Certified Public Accountants and the American Institute of CPAs, has more than 30 years of experience working with resource companies.

     

    Mr. Ireland serves as chief investment officer and managing member of Geologic Resource Partners LLC as well as portfolio manager of Geologic Resource Funds. Mr. Ireland has 30 years of experience in all aspects of the resource sector, ranging from field geology through to banking and corporate finance. In addition to having worked in the most senior positions with several firms in the resource sector he has served as a director with companies that include Blue Wolf Mongolia Holdings Corp., Peru Copper Inc., Geoinformatics Exploration Inc., Kiska Metals Corporation and Uranium Resources Inc. Mr. Ireland graduated from Philips Academy and the University of Michigan with degrees in resource economics and geology. He also attended the Graduate School of Business Administration of New York University.

     

    GWMG executive chairman Gary Billingsley said: "GWMG is very pleased to be able to attract such highly qualified board members to our company. The significant resource sector backgrounds of Robert Gilmore and George Ireland will further strengthen our team at GWMG. We are very confident that the addition of these independent directors will serve our shareholders' interests exceptionally well."

     

    We seek Safe Harbor.
    14 Mar 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    AELB is now looking at inviting outside experts to advise them on how to monitor things. http://bit.ly/zRhnBq I hope this doesn't delay things. My thinking was we would be shipping in 2 weeks (after completing construction). I guess on second thought, this AELB action should not effect that schedule. It sure does feel like we are getting close to some action!
    15 Mar 2012, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    AELB has the on going governmental responsibility to monitor LAMP after operations start. I don't see a delay unless something is added to the TOL conditions. This subject appears to be actions on AELB's part to determine how they will handle their duties after the TOL is granted and the plant starts to operate.
    15 Mar 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): GWG trading halted at company request in Canada by IIROC at request of company.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Mar 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Details in the works...

     

    This should be interesting.
    15 Mar 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    The most interesting part may be the comment on corporate bonds versus corporate equities that the deal should provide. If the terms are good we may start to see several of these rare earth juniors going this route. I mean when Moly did their convertible they were at a top price and had tons of assets underneath them. When Lynas did theirs it was assumed it would take them to production and they had tons of assets underneath them.

     

    But GW does not have many assets for bond purposes. Of the $66.6 million book value, LCM before the recent furnace was less than $3 million and $24.3 million was Steen's book in September before a drill. So the convertible stock is designed to secure the bond as usual. But this is a speculative penny stock. If it can secure financing without a drill result, I would think several Juniors should take note. At a minimum Alkane and Arafura should follow suit. But really anyone with a drilled resource or JORC/NI 43-101 would seem well advised to use the opportunity in the bond market.
    15 Mar 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Maybe. What I see is the likelihood that they will sell to prospective and signed customers, plus the usual bevy of medium-to-large investors who are on a list somewhere to invite to insider deals. There are only a few rare earth companies in this group that have any sort of solid customer relationships to draw upon...

     

    With a collapse of the traditional banking model, however, it should not surprise us that these bond deals will displace the banks, even from situations where a few years ago a traditional loan secured with corporate assets would fill the bill.

     

    The ex-China rare earth sector, as a literal collective startup with little recent history to build upon, may present (as you say) some insight into the funding path for other junior explorers - but perhaps they will also show the way for a much larger group of smallcaps scattered around the investment landscape.

     

    This bears close watching...
    15 Mar 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    Greetings all. They will have to have very favorable terms to attract bond traders in the secondary markets. I will take a close look when they reveal those terms. I may even make an acquisition if the deal is sweet enough as My AIG CHY matures soon.
    15 Mar 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I just find the whole concept interesting. This thing is a good story and a mine with historicals only. It will be a great sales job to sell these bonds off at decent terms. But if they can do it, all the power to them.
    15 Mar 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Robert, Chi:

     

    In recent history, deals like this are announced after the investors are already lined up. I suspect at least a sizeable majority of these bonds are already spoken for, and the underlying details like share price were finalized some time back.

     

    This is no guarantee that it is "a done deal", but I think it is close to one.
    15 Mar 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Indeed that is the norm for this type of issue which is why I said they would have to have very favorable terms for bond traders in the secondary market. That is where I expect to see them if the original lenders choose to sell their bonds. Keep in mind that this will not involve a primary dealer as it will start as private placement bonds. I would suggest that the initial bond acquisition will be well beyond my means to buy in and probably beyond most of us that are posting here. It's usually as you indicated by invitation only. I don't know why I'm never on the mailing list. LOL.
    15 Mar 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    A deal is near;
    we do not know terms;
    we think its sizable (whatever it is);
    we have a mine;
    we have no drills;
    the closing price was $0.55 but we can't say that matters;
    the money will be use for one of six business purposes that cover everything under the sun.
    Great. Someone else's money.
    15 Mar 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, its a rap song...

     

    Chorus and hook "some else's money".
    15 Mar 2012, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    GW today- it is a rap song...
    Nuttin' said.
    Nuttin' done.
    No point...
    Just gimmie da money. Word.

     

    Some else's money...
    Just gimmie da money. Word.

     

    Geez I hate rap.
    15 Mar 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking more like a drinking song:
    A deal is near!
    With someone else's money!
    I think it's sizable whatever it is.
    With someone else's money!
    We have a mine.
    And someone else's money!
    We have no drill.
    We have someone else's money!
    15 Mar 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Anyone like NTUs new drill update? Reading between the lines are they positive? Also, it appears Conglin Yue bought another million + shares. Thanks
    15 Mar 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sandstorm had a banner 4th quarter and year:

     

    http://bit.ly/wTMfPZ

     

    This remains my only pm investment, including their 2015 warrants.
    15 Mar 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    QRM hires senior Project Manager
    http://bit.ly/wRunif
    16 Mar 2012, 02:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Prices offering at US$80M. Agents can increase up to US$10M up to two days before closing and settlement.

     

    http://mwne.ws/A6yKib

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF -

     

    80 Million convertible with an option for an additional 10 mill, convertible 5 yrs forward with 8% interest. Also, Jim E has recommend to the board and they have accepted to begin the search for new CEO.

     

    Closing of offering expected April, 5th.

     

    http://mwne.ws/A6yKib

     

    Best,
    Matt
    16 Mar 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF - Also proposing 5 - 1 reverse split.
    16 Mar 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Five scoops of ice cream, bananas, hot fudge, sprinkles, whip cream and a cherry on top. Decadent.
    16 Mar 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Yes. But it's deserved since adding the reverse split puts in the camp of debauchery.

     

    HardToLove
    16 Mar 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Only surprise might be Engdahl stepping down (or will it be sideways?). Now I want to hear more about that one...
    16 Mar 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stockhouse is wild (and has more than average newbie action without a clue). I don't have time to monitor things, heading to St. Simons, but my thoughts off the top of my head:

     

    Even on Stockhouse I see lots of people who must be long GWG who don't know that a reverse split was authorized last year, so gauging from that, this is a shock for a significant fraction of the longs...

     

    My read on Engdahl (crystal ball source) leaving is that the board finally lost patience with moves like the reverse split and the funding dance.

     

    I suspect that Jim was on the losing side of those battles. So what we see happening is despite his resistance, rather than because of his support. We can only hope that he was wrong and they are right...
    16 Mar 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/FObejz

     

    interview with Engdahl comments. Notice the Fully Funded emphasis.
    16 Mar 2012, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas was suppose to be fully funded with Sojitz. At that time, they had a concentrator fully built and producing and were already firmly into LAMP construction. GW is STILL finishing the mine shaft and has yet to break ground on the concentrator or separations plant. No one is fully funded till they are near completion with any multi-million dollar project. I would not consider GW fully funded until they are near completion and within budget. This theory applies to nearly all forms of construction IMO.

     

    I know GW will make the fully funded claim like all companies till more capital raising is required. I suppose they deserve no more guff for the mantra then Lynas deserved in 2011 for the comment. But I highly doubt this will be the first multi-million dollar project I have ever seen that stays on time and on budget start to finish. I base this comment in part on the fact that GW did not finish any H2 2011 promises truly "on time and on budget" according to the timeline in last year's annual meeting address.
    16 Mar 2012, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    A couple thoughts on GW. The 8% is a high yield corporate rate. It is the only way to offer $90 million on a stock where a third of the book value is in on a resource that is without drill results. I view this transaction as further evidence that the drills will not excite. If the drills were going to be good we would not be seeing these terms now.

     

    Converting at $0.66 per share (a 20% premium) reflects the current risk/reward. My only further question would be when is the conversion first possible? Lynas had a six month hold on their convertible. Moly's is a mandatory convertible at the end of the term. I'm guessing without more information that this will be like Moly's and all convert after 5 years.

     

    The key issue here is how far will $90 million take the company. Many GW investors will see this as full funding for the concentrator and separations plant. I firmly disagree. I think the final cost will be 2-3 times larger. GW is doing the 5:1 reverse split to get themselves on the AMEX no doubt. This would allow them to issue further shares if/when funding gaps arise. That makes sense as a future approach.

     

    But the real long term problem is the burn rate and dilution are way too high for the current stage of the company. Reducing the share count with the reverse split does not change these facts. And while the bonds would have been a good idea if the terms would reflect the current low yield corporate environment, the 8% does little in that regard IMO. All the bond does is produce a wide spread between the share count and the fully diluted share count.

     

    The next two years will be the key for this company. If they execute reasonably close to "on time and on budget" the bond issue could turn out well and the funding could take the company to its potential. But if the stock stubbles and weakens during that time, the conversion will hang over the stock and further offerings will be pressured by the bonds.

     

    So GW got funding and faces and even tougher clock IMO. That is a reasonable business choice. And how good or bad the current situation depends in large part on how much you believe in the stated plans. All positions are reasonable, but I do remain very bearish.

     

    As for Jim Engdahl leaving, it is rarely good for a CEO to leave unless he is the problem. I have never seen Engdahl as the problem or replacing him as a problem either. The more interesting factor will be the next type we see in the position (finance, manufacturing, or geology guy/gal).
    16 Mar 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    One quick correction. Moly's convertibles are mandatory convertibles and convert at the end according to set terms. This GW convertible seems to be convert if the share trades to $0.66 by the bond's expiration date. In other words it is like the Lynas convertible without the hold. I think most realize this, but I misstated it above.

     

    Lynas/Mount Kellett Convertible Bond Key terms:
    • Term: 4.5 years
    • Coupon: 2.75% p.a.
    • No conversion for the first 6 months
    • Initial conversion price: $1.25 per share
    http://bit.ly/AmdUj9
    (Slide 30)

     

    My Understanding of the GWG Convertible terms:
    • Term: 5 years
    • Coupon: 8% p.a.
    • Conversion price: $0.66 per share
    http://bit.ly/Aoee4J
    16 Mar 2012, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    there seems to be some confusion surrounding the reverse split. My understanding is that there is NO reverse split on the table. Hopefully that will be cleared up in a conference call later. <--- that will take place in a few days/a week and (hopefully) should include the drill results. 43-101 due in April.
    16 Mar 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    "In addition, in connection with the Offering, the Company has agreed to use reasonable commercial efforts to consolidate its common shares on a 5 to 1 basis, or such other ratio as the Company may determine, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval."
    http://mwne.ws/A6yKib

     

    Aqwert,
    It seems one is likely in the near future based on this quote in the press release. But I also agree it will be later like you say; and it does look like drill results will be in April.
    16 Mar 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Good stuff guys. Thank you both!
    18 Mar 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWMGF - Very insightful (sorry for no link):

     

    GWMG turns to London CB market for rare earths funding

     

    Issue: Daily News - 19 March 2012

     

    An $80m convertible bond from a small Toronto-listed early stage rare earths company could open the door to the European equity-linked market for more of Canada’s many small-cap mining firms. The deal, for Great Western Minerals Group, incorporated features of the high yield, project finance and convertible bond markets and will allow the company to complete its capital expenditure plans to create one of only two integrated rare earths firms outside of China.

     

    Great Western Minerals had attempted in October and November last year to raise the funding required to complete its mining, processing and separation facilities but amid sour markets and a tapped-out investor base only raised $17m from an equity-financing. It said in November that it would try to get government or bank supplied debt

     

    But the solution was to turn to the equity linked market — though with a highly-covenanted structure and security package akin to the project finance or high yield markets.

     

    The deal — which was priced on Friday — remains dilutive: Great Western has a $215m market capitalisation and the shares underlying the CB represent 23.6% of the expanded share capital.

     

    The domestic Canadian CB market is well-developed but with a focus on subordinated paper and would not have been able to provide the size required, said bankers involved in the issue. The Reg. S format however allowed the firm to bring in London-based investors.

     

    Toronto-headquartered GMP Securities and London-based merchant bank ISM Capital were joint bookrunners, with Byron Capital Markets a sales agent.

     

    “We knew Canadian investors could buy Reg. S securities but we didn’t know that they would,” said ISM Capital executive vice president Michael Coakley. “We didn’t lose any demand from domestic investors due to the Reg. S format but we were able to get a much larger transaction away including international investors in a structure that’s never been done before in Canada. There are many smaller and early-stage Canadian mining companies that could bring similar transactions.”

     

    Around 60% of the bonds — which come with a $10m greenshoe — were sold to London-based investors, with shareholders and Canadian domestic investors taking around 20% each. “It took six weeks of pre-marketing,” said ISM Capital executive chairman Cliff Siegel. “Sophisticated hedge funds and outright investors with a high level of expertise in debt analysis were happy to take the risk but a lot of work went into the analysing the business, the capex plans and the recovery value.”

     

    The deal was comfortably oversubscribed.

     

    Great Western was helped by getting the timing right for its fundraising. Rare earths — a family of metals used in many specialist industrial applications — are seldom out of the headlines as US and European governments battle Chinese control of the market.

     

    And on March 11, Molycorp, owner of the largest rare earths deposit outside China, announced a C$1.3bn deal to acquire Neo Material Technologies, a processor of the metals. Bringing together miners and processers is the same business model as Great Western is pursuing.

     

    “The recent Molycorp-Neo Materials acquisition was a validation of GWMG’s integrated model and a powerful catalyst for the deal,” said Siegel.

     

    Not so rare

     

    The five year issue was priced with an 8% coupon and a C
    .66 conversion price — a 20% premium to the C
    .55 closing price before launch on March 14. The deal is callable after three years subject to a 130% hurdle.

     

    The bonds were trading at 100.375-100.875 mid-morning on Monday.

     

    Great Western will receive only $10m of the funds raised immediately with the remainder being placed in escrow pending regulatory confirmation that its mine contains at least 20,000 metric tonnes of rare earths. The first three coupon payments will also be held in escrow.

     

    Bondholders have further protection: there is an early redemption right at an adjusted conversion price if, after 2.5 years, the company’s separation plant isn’t’ fully operational. The company cannot pay dividends for three years and dividends after that time are subject to full protection.

     

    The security package comprises a fixed charge over the issuer’s subsidiary companies.

     

    “There are very few convertible transactions that have this kind of security package,” said Coakley. “We’ve been pushing hard in this space incorporating features of high yield, project finance and convertible bonds. We think financings like this appeal to early stage companies with strong assets and business plans.”

     

    ISM was a lead manager for a $70m convertible for Lonhro, the London-listed African infrastructure firm in October 2010, as well as a $200m pre-IPO convertible for Istanbul’s BioCity in June.

     

    “There are many mining exploration firms with great concepts but which find it difficult to raise institutional funding,” said Siegel. “As banks pull back we’ll see a larger number of these types of deals,”

     

    Other recent early-stage CB deals include the $350m for African Minerals in January this year. That however, came after the company had completed its first phase of development and after it became Ebitda-positive, though bookrunners working on that deal said they expected it to spark more interest in the equity-linked sector from exploration firms.
    19 Mar 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Dallasmatt! That is very informative.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Mar 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    That security package is a risk to GW, the company, IMO.
    Article above: "There is an early redemption right at an adjusted conversion price if, after 2.5 years, the company’s separation plant isn’t’ fully operational."

     

    So this is an undrilled existing mine that appears to need metallurgy work; It exits in a politically risky jurisdiction and presumes full funding without starting construction; And it needs it's Chinese partner to design and work with them to finish in 2.5 years. If this happens GQD gets the performance payments and GW progresses Steen to production. If they fail GQD might not get the payments but GW risks a redemption right at an adjusted conversion price probably with no earnings.
    19 Mar 2012, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    I think its safe to say if the separation plant isn't fully operational in 2.5 years their are a lot bigger problems and this company likely won't be around in its existing form. I view it as standard convents that bond holders would want for a venture/risky company.

     

    However, on the other hand if GW does execute its plan the callability of the bonds is a nice feature.

     

    I do expect additional funding and believe that will come at a cheaper price once lab results etc. But, yes I guess it is a guessing game as to what those lab results will be.

     

    What I found so informative is their is no doubt GW had trouble raising in more traditional and preferred methods and explains the delays versus conspiracy theories etc. However, they seemed to have been embraced by alternative financing methods and while paying a steeper price (which I don't think will be unique to GWG going forward) they are at a point that very few REE company's are or will be in 5 years form now at best.

     

    Going forward only time will tell and they must execute pretty precisely which is why I find it as a plus that Jim will be stepping aside (nothing personally because I am glad he is staying aboard) but I expect the new CEO will come with impressive credentials for the next steps this company needs to take.

     

    Your comments below seem to combine some factually incorrect and/or vague comments along with other known facts that the most novice investor with interest in GWG would know, so I am not clear as to what point(S) you are trying to make.
    .
    "So this is an undrilled existing mine that appears to need metallurgy work; It exits in a politically risky jurisdiction and presumes full funding without starting construction; And it needs it's Chinese partner to design and work with them to finish in 2.5 years. If this happens GQD gets the performance payments and GW progresses Steen to production. If they fail GQD might not get the payments but GW risks a redemption right at an adjusted conversion price probably with no earnings."
    20 Mar 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The point of the security package in the article is that it IS unusual to get such terms. I personally would not be surprised if the separations facility is over 2.5 years away. Junior progress is never that certain in my mind. You may note in earlier comments prior to the bond TB suggested more than 2.5 years was possible as well.

     

    You indicated some of my factual statements are incorrect. Which one?
    A) Steen is an undrilled existing mine;
    B) Steen will need metallurgy work to operate as a modern rare earth mine;
    C) South Africa is a politically risky jurisdiction;
    D) GW is presuming full financing;
    E) Concentration and separation construction has not started yet.
    F) GW is relying on GQD to design and manage building the facilities.

     

    Beyond the bulldozing of a surface where a pond should go I do not understand your factual challenge. Your links to disprove my comments are welcome.
    20 Mar 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » That's true, Chi. I have often tossed cold water on the timelines for all these companies (Lynas, Moly, GWM). My most recent comment, as I recall, was that I would be extremely happy if GWM can run only 3 to 6 months late.

     

    I believe now (with funding in hand, though I too question its enough to keep them all the way to the end) that they might hit nameplate phase 1 production from a new plant (2.7kmt) by Q1 2014, though that assumes only a 3 - 6 month total delay. If they manage that accomplishment in 2013, I will be very surprised. So yes, its very possible that a 2.5 year period (which would put them into September, 2014) could elapse. If they run 6 months over their plans (which I expect is likely) it could get "exciting".

     

    I believe GWM's local political risk is less than what we have seen with Lynas in Malaysia, where its apparent that the full scope of the geopolitical risk was not foreseen by corporate management. The Black Empowerment program in South Africa, requiring a sizeable local ownership position in Steen, is a factor and much different from the straightforward foreign ownership of Lynas with the LAMP. Still, South Africa certainly has political risk factors and they should never be ignored.

     

    I don't view Steen as "undrilled" so much as lacking a complete NI. Much of the drilling is done (though not all, and not the follow-on work which is almost always done even after an initial NI is completed). We have a loose promise date for the release of the full drill data and lab results...

     

    And here is where assumptions enter the equation.

     

    A 20kmt minimum resource reserve is built into the new funding. This is an important number, since it both indicates a firm requirement and deal breaker (other than the initial monies released prior to the study's completion). This number is pretty humble, really, and it is about what was estimated is present BEFORE any new drilling and analysis seeking to expand the known resource. So one way of looking at it is that it represents a wild gamble placed by a group of investors willing to toss around about $90m with no information. My own idea is that in the end we will find that the investors had more information regarding the exisitng drill program results than we do, and the 20kmt number will become a non-sequitor. If not...

     

    LOL, this deal will die a very quick and ugly death, and the investors will probably be in a position to successfully sue for return of the front money.
    20 Mar 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Expanding a resource without a drill is an oxymoron of sorts to me. I have asked and never received a compelling reason why Steen's historicals should be treated so different than any other. Generally, when a historical promise is nearly 1.5 times better results than anything on the planet I do not expect a resource expansion. I realize there a 5% cutoff, but at such Thorium levels a high cut off would be likely in a feasibility study IMO.

     

    To get the 20kmt GW will either need good drill results or they will need further drills or an appellate victory on the Prospector's Rights denial. Those are further issues that could delay full operations on the separations plant itself.

     

    Overall, I've just seen a lot of "slippage" in the sector and find it common in Juniors in general. If the adjusted conversion price is onerous I see it as a big risk. And if additional funding is needed to finish on time it would be very costly since it would be subject to the bond rights.
    20 Mar 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    As I stated in regards to the separation facility if it is more than two+ years away this company ceases to exist in its current form IMO.

     

    As for the others:
    A) See TB comments, but to call it undrilled given your level of knowledge seems odd.
    B)I don't think needing metallurgy work is a surprise to any one and part of the reason they brought in the Chinese. Although with Monzonite there is quite a history.
    C)See TB comments, but no surprise here.
    D)As I said, I expect additional financing, don't think anybody doesn't but as they move closer to their goals the financing will likely become a lot freindlier. Also, I don't see a too many scenario's where the 30M+ (I need to check this number again) in options/warrants due this year don't get excercised.
    E)Stating the obvious, was based on funding although if you believe management planning/design is pretty far along.
    F) No kidding, that is why they partnered with them.

     

    "Beyond bulldozing at the surface" - what about the refurbishment of the underground mine.

     

    My point is you appear to be cherry picking and making vague comments regarding one specific area and either intentionally or unintentionally making them appear as blanket statements for the entire project.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    20 Mar 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    dallasmatt: Greetings. Your observations are spto on. I did some DD over the week end that coroberate your statements. Thanks. Very well done.
    20 Mar 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I do not feel I am cherry picking (what am I leaving out?). I think this is a high risk company. The bond terms support that view. I stand by my A-F points and do not see you pointing out factual misstatements. Refurbishing the mine is not part of the concentrator or separations facility development. But the fact that the refurbishment is way late and over budget is part of my point about slippage risk. Yes some points are obvious but they go to the risks involved.
    20 Mar 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    Just enjoy the 10+% up day. It is easier that way. :)
    20 Mar 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    UAMY ~ "In the news!"

     

    http://bit.ly/GzvrEe
    19 Mar 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks egg. I am long UAMY, and its always good to get favorable notice... Although this guy is somewhat hyper in the way he goes about it.

     

    I have recently raised my buy target on this stock to $2.94, and its due a review this week to see if it might rate just a mite more...
    19 Mar 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The guy is a little hyper because he has pumped them only for a while first SA:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    But I read him elsewhere further back than that I think. He has been right so give him credit.
    19 Mar 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Thanks! Somehow my news aggregator missed Aguirre's new article.

     

    My small investments in UAMY have yielded some decent profits.
    20 Mar 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/GA5gkT

     

    Article about Malaysia's parliamentary committee being formed to look at the LAMP.

     

    Current price for LYC in Australia down A$.05, or 4.1%.
    19 Mar 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) notes the comments of the Prime Minister of Malaysia, as reported in various media, that the Malaysian Government has decided to set up a Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) in relation to the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia.
    It is proposed that the committee will be headed by the Higher Education Minister, and the committee is expected to report by the end of June.
    It was also reported that the Prime Minister said that the PSC will not decide on matters such as the approval and ongoing operation of the LAMP. Lynas understands that the purpose of the PSC is to continue to help raise awareness concerning the LAMP.

     

    Full annoucement here:
    http://bit.ly/GA3ptU
    19 Mar 2012, 10:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/GAHSnQ

     

    More crumbs on the table about the GWM changes. Note the final bit about Engdahl's departure from the CEO slot. It would appear he plans to remain a "president and director".
    20 Mar 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (IAALF) in the news. IBC announces they are supplying the European Space program with Berolcast parts.

     

    http://bit.ly/GAI3iX

     

    Annoying repetetive disclosure: I am long IAALF.
    20 Mar 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Usually takes 2 to 3 days for the stock (IAALF) to react to the news if I recall correctly.

     

    Would love to add here, but think - due to global economic pressures - might be best to wait a little longer.

     

    I believe you had tough times slated for March TB...
    20 Mar 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Still likely, though of course nothing is ever certain with these predictions.

     

    For my longer range holds like IAALF, I pretty much ignore shorter term bumps like a potential 10-15% correction, or even a mild, short cycle recession. I expect this news might re-ignite a useful trading channel for IBC, one which I would use to finish filling my planned core position with cheap or zero cost shares (depending on the extent, volume and period of the channel).

     

    These tiny pennies really only need a few steady customers to transform from caterpillars to butterflies, of course, and this particular company's major customers have few alternatives to these unique products and are operating on long term contracts for even longer term projects.
    20 Mar 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • abfrbe
    , contributor
    Comments (31) | Send Message
     
    About GWG but I can't find the original article
    "An aggressive exploration program is being launched and the goal is to have everything operating at Steenkampskraal by January 2013, which is six months earlier than previously planned."

     

    http://bit.ly/GBjYEU
    20 Mar 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    So what are we waiting for in order to get Lynas to perk up? This is crazy.
    20 Mar 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Appeal to the AELB...

     

    Results of the new Parliamentary Committee (gawd, I hope its not just another excuse to tack another delay on things until after the elections)...

     

    Completion of the darn construction...

     

    Filing of the necessary plans (waste management, check for the upfront costs of the required bond, etc) to actually activate the TOL and get the clock ticking...
    20 Mar 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I don't see a pick-up in Lynas until Malaysia accepts LAMP start-up. So far first feed in April is still the plan. But the opposition is dragging things along (probably hoping to stall till an election). As long as they stall, the stock will wait. I'll add more if it goes lower, but not here. April 4 is Lynas' side to the court case so I think it will sit around these levels at least until then. Most likely, we may need first feed before traders are ready to push the stock up. The risk of "government surprise" has made first feed the buying event at this stage.
    20 Mar 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Thanks guys for the objective information and your interpretations.
    20 Mar 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Outlook for Lynas still looks grim.
    20 Mar 2012, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Political? Yes. Grim? No. Currently there is no action preventing first feed in April if the plant is ready. I therefore disagree with using the word "grim" for a company this close to first feed.
    20 Mar 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10802) | Send Message
     
    I don't think grim is the apropriate adjective either. Uncertain but not grim.
    20 Mar 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Last night in Oz:

     

    Lynas AU$1.145
    Alkane AU$1.415

     

    In US$, LYSCF/LYSDY 1.20 and ALKEF 1.48
    21 Mar 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Amazing that Alkane's SP is so much higher than Lynas. 96% complete. hmmm
    21 Mar 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    I guess it's the promise of future profits from the zirconium, hafnium, niobium, tantalum, gold and copper that they have -- in addition to the REEs.
    22 Mar 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (5079) | Send Message
     
    What do you think about MCP Leaps ?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Mar 2012, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    Today's FT reports that "Japan acts to secure rare earths."

     

    A few highlights:
    A new recycling plant in Vietnam, Japan consumes 25-27,000 long tons a year, looking at mining in Vietnam, Kazakhstan and India that would be several years off, immediate hopes about Lynas (9k long tons beginning early next year) and its $225m loan from Jogmec, and efforts to use REEs more efficiently.
    21 Mar 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    Mongolia's PM also made a state visit to Japan last week.

     

    Lots of feathers about joint relations between the two countries; many projects to go. Notably, the Japanese Ambassador to Mongolia speaks fluent Mongolian (only foreign country representative to wish the country a Happy New Year in Mongolian in a speech on national television).

     

    Mongolia will have a good amount of rare earths... eventually. They have them, but they're nowhere close to exploiting them.
    21 Mar 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2201) | Send Message
     
    Rare earths are scheduled to break out to the upside, so says a chart soothsayer.
    http://bit.ly/GH3vjo
    21 Mar 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    A first, Lynas gets a mention in our St. Petersburg newspaper (now called the Tampa Bay Times). It's that article from yesterday's NYT that tells about the protests and an engineer's claim that electronic parts were ordered late and will cause further delays.

     

    Lynas says any late parts are for their second phase or spare parts inventory.

     

    http://bit.ly/GEOxuU
    22 Mar 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Funny, I missed the news that China Inc. had purchased the NYT...
    22 Mar 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Dont expect any difference in the news. Still RED as hell.
    22 Mar 2012, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cruizing around the REE/Strat space this morning, some notes and observations...

     

    Arafura (ARAFF) is sagging below the $.35 support level, and is looking more buyable. I have not seen enough volume to support a trade in the pinks just yet, but I am putting this one on Watch. At current prices around $.30-.31, it could be tradeable if it can get some volume going.

     

    Greenland (GDLNF) has been reporting strong results from its resource sampling, but remains utterly hostage to the local ban on Uranium mining. Even so, with the macro space for Uranium demand showing stirrings of life, this could rejuvenate this moribund stock (needless to say, a reversal or amelioration of the ban on Uranium mining would turn this one into a star). GDLNF is a buy for me at current prices, with a trade horizon around the mid .60's... HOWEVER I am not buying today, but looking for something closer to $.44...

     

    (GOLDF) Pele Mountain is hovering at $.14, which was my old buy target, but I have dropped it to $.12 for now...

     

    (GWMGF) Great Western is soft today, drifting down nearer my buy target of $.48-.49. I am considering entering some trading blocs for this stock as I anticipate sufficient volume and volatility in the coming months between $.48 and $.62.

     

    (IAALF) IBC is trading close to my buy target of $.13. I would sell at $.17, and bank cheap or zero cost shares as I grow my core holding for this long term play.

     

    (LYSCF) (LYSDY) Lynas continues to languish as it is used as a political football by both ends of the Malaysian political spectrum. As I mentioned recently, I abandoned my long time buy target of $1.20, and now I am lurking at $1.03. Currently trading at $1.17. On good news I might make a snap buy for trading shares, but the steady decay in share price keeps me lurking.

     

    (MCP) MolyCorp's preferred is where I am long for this one. I am a buyer currently at $63 (up from my prior buy target of $60), though once again good news about Phoenix could alter the landscape quickly, and I might enter MCP's common stock for a snap trade.

     

    (QREDF) Quest has been showing some drama over the past few months, trading over $.20, and well above my buy targets. I have now lifted my target to $.19 (though I would be more comfortable with $.18 or less). I made a very nice return on the last trade cycle, even after retaining 20% of the shares as zero cost to toss in the sock drawer...

     

    (SNDXF) Sandstorm, my only precious metal equity play, has been soaring. I have elected to add my trading blocs to a larger core goal, and I am now looking to accumulate to fill that core at share prices around $1.50. With the stock going for about $2, this is a fluid plan and one which I will update later this month. Sandstorm warrants (SDXXF) have been my best investment over the past 12 months, up about 300%, and are currently trading over $1. I plan to hold these well into 2014.

     

    (TAS) Tasman has returned to an earlier trading range between $2.20 and 2.50. I have sold all shares except a sock drawer remnant as it hit my sell goal of $2.45. Now I am looking to re-build some trading blocs, with a buy target of $1.94.

     

    (UAMY) has taken off recently, and is now far above the trading channel it inhabited for most of the last 6 months. Antimony news is starting to be mentioned in the same reports concerning the REE/China situation, and this is lifting the stock's visibility. I consider this one difficult to predict short term, but I watch it daily and will buy at my current target of $2.80. I am long UAMY and have a core holding in this stock.

     

    (UURAF) UCore has settled into a downtrend, and though I track this stock I do not consider it a good trade at this point. I have a small residual position in this stock in my sock drawer, with hopes that it will come to life again and offer some trading opportunities in the future.
    22 Mar 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    ...and where's the prospectus on your mutual fund so we can invest?

     

    Fantastic stuff TB. Thank you for sharing.
    22 Mar 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, looks like March is starting to show signs of presenting some buying opportunities. Everyone DID go heavy cash to create plenty of dry powder, right?

     

    Anyway, I'm seeing stock prices dropping into my "zone":

     

    Arafura (ARAFF) $.305

     

    Greenland (GDLNF) $.47

     

    (GOLDF) Pele Mountain $.125

     

    (GWMGF) .52

     

    (IAALF) .145

     

    (LYSCF) (LYSDY) 1.16 and 1.14

     

    (MCP) 66.50

     

    (QREDF) .20

     

    (SNDXF) 1.89

     

    (TAS) 2.35

     

    (UAMY) 3.72

     

    (UURAF) .41
    22 Mar 2012, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4161) | Send Message
     
    I'm a bit torn. On the one hand I'd really like to take another swing at buying Lynas. On the other hand, the stock has tanked within days or weeks every time I make an initial purchase, then I average down, then it bounces a little, and I exit near break-even-ish.

     

    Maybe I'll give someone else money to buy it for me... to try and trick the stock...

     

    As always TB, very much appreciate your lists and thoughts.
    22 Mar 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This one would try the patience of a saint.

     

    I was carrying a buy target of $1.20 (both before the TOL, and after), but I abandoned it before the stock hit that point, and now my buy target is $1.03.

     

    Of course, at $1.14 or thereabouts today, it is trying very hard to reach the lower target in a hurry.

     

    Note: This personal buy target of $1.03 may or may not be meaningful for first time buyers or even those with loads of shares averaging down (my average cost is actually lower than $1, but I do consider this a good price). If I were just entering the stock, prices below $1.20 would be attractive to me.
    22 Mar 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Recheck you MCP price. You got me so overly excited I have to go change my pants now.
    22 Mar 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry DG. That's the MCP preffered convertible stock Maya, Joseph and I are holding long. Common is still trying to regain $30.
    22 Mar 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    jokes on me then. hahahaha
    22 Mar 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I mentioned "preferred" in my list above the recap you are looking at, but I should have tacked on -PA or -A. Great to see you back, I hope all is well...
    22 Mar 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Things have been ugly but are improving slowly. I am still looking at the green side of grass so thats the relevant side of the issue. I have a business partner that is in hospice and will not be comming out. In your prayers tonight say one for Bill Bingham please. We have lost that business and another partner retired causing a bit of a problem but we are working through it.

     

    Life goes on and we deal with it....with prayers and perseverance.
    22 Mar 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18038) | Send Message
     
    Sorry to hear about that DG. Stay steady through *your* transition and we will be thinking of you as well as BB.

     

    HardToLove
    22 Mar 2012, 09:49 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL, stepped in while the cloud moves through the scene. Nice evening here in Ohio. Just a few clouds but plenty of beer for the evening to numb things down.

     

    I have missed my opportunity's to converse with y'all.

     

    SA friends are still here and keeping things going. Thanks, I really mean that too!!! As you know I have seen some things in the emails that have been really disturbing lately and y'all are a firm grip on a sheer clift.

     

    THANKS BUDDY!!!
    22 Mar 2012, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Will do, DG. Supportive karma dispatched.
    23 Mar 2012, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is continuing weak downunder tonight, trading currently around $1.15 american... AUD has weakened considerably recently (down about 4-5%) and this has an affect as well, of course.

     

    Those of us who lack faith in the mighty American dollar might look upon its transitory current strength as another consideration in computing buying opportunity...
    22 Mar 2012, 07:33 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    J. Kaiser put out a pretty impressive read of Tasman after their latest data release on 3/21. Good recovery rates, 50% HREE, between 40 -100 year mine life, good locale....Production 2015.

     

    Again the theme was to go for a resource that has the HREEs. Anyone know how Lynas compares to Tasman with total amounts of HREEs?

     

    Currently with only sixty million shares, I'm starting to like Tasman more.
    22 Mar 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The drawbacks for TAS (I am long TAS btw) is simply that they have a very low TREO number. The HREE percentage is just one side of the equation - more important is the question "50% of WHAT?" In this case, the high percentage of valuable elements is applied against a very low overall quality deposit.

     

    Otherwise its got many advantages, including documented support from the Swedish government - good infrastructure access - easy mining (pit) method - low radioactive component (very little thorium or uranium, which is unusual for a heavy REE deposit) - and they seem to be getting a handle on the concentration and seperation methodology needed. They also have potential support from the EU, which has decided to setup a strategic materials stockpile program, including rare earths, and with the desire to pull those minerals from sources within Europe.

     

    I am doubtful of the timeline that puts them in full production by 2015, this has proven very difficult for others, as we have seen...

     

    Normally I would not be investing in a junior miner with such low TREO numbers, but the pluses and the political element are the equalizer in this case.

     

    Lynas with their Duncan deposit and their Malawi project has considerable potential when it comes to the heavier elements, but there is room for TAS in the market, if they can get funding and start to build.
    22 Mar 2012, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB,

     

    Can Lynas even process the heavies they have? That's the main critique I hear from folks when people say Lynas has plenty of heavy rare earths. Supposedly the LAMP cannot. So does Lynas build an addition to the LAMP for the heavies? Will it be allowed? How long would it take? Can Lynas ship the heavies somewhere else for processing, or would that greatly diminish profitability ?
    22 Mar 2012, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    There is every reason to believe Lynas can process the Duncan HREE's in the future. It is true LAMP I and II are geared toward the CLD but Lynas has a tolling agreement (apparently with Rhodia). Lynas has indicated tolling will be done until the volumes are larger. Presumably, Duncan would create large enough volumes for a HREE phase.
    22 Mar 2012, 10:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Tasman is one of the Eudialyte deposits. This mineral has a reputation for "gumming up" in separation. It has yet to commercially produce REE's. Clearly, the mineral can be separated and Metamac, Alkane, and Tasman have made encouraging comments. But my understanding is the issue is: How well will Eudialyte separate on a commercial level? That is a tough issue because pilot projects can only tell us so much.
    22 Mar 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    You will note the "Lynas can't separate HREE" talk is most common on GWG boards. It usually is followed by "GW has GQD (Chinese) technology and will separate HREE". But Steen operations are likely to start around 2,500tpa and possibly moved to 5,000tpa. That is about one fifth the size of LAMP and yet Lynas feels tolling makes sense, but GW does not. Something has to give here IMO. Either Lynas is wrong to toll or GW is wrong to pay the additional expense to separate the small volumes of HREE at Steen and potential near-by sources.
    I don't know which is correct. But this is a key processing issue to watch.
    23 Mar 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Lynas has been putting a series of lower highs and lower lows. Using an australian chart it has to stop at 1.08ish or it appears it would go to 1.00 ish.
    22 Mar 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Currently around $1.11 this morning. Next week could see us knocking on $1. There really doesn't seem to be any solid bottom until the political bleeding in Malaysia stops.

     

    I'll start picking up trading blocs at my buy target of $1.03...

     

    And lower.
    23 Mar 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (8383) | Send Message
     
    I have not been here much lately so it this has been commented on and worn out---so sorry-- but the aussy mining tax has got to be weighing on lynas for sure. f$$$ing govts only care about saving their a$$ right now at the expense of every thing else.

     

    The politics of the world have interrupted all markets with manipulation that eliminates----and I mean this very strongly---any market fundamentals. We are in political events moving markets and nothing else.

     

    Sad actually, so sad and your retirement is not of their concern.
    22 Mar 2012, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13542) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, I am smelling a bottom (perhaps short term, but still...) for Lynas. It hit 1.11 and is now grinding up from there.
    23 Mar 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    It would appear that the opposition ran their 1000 responses to the TOL through a copy machine. IMO that makes this recent process irrelevant as it represents total BS thrown into the issues… Anyway the board will look into it… A sliver of good news today anyway...

     

    Board to question ‘identical responses’ on Lynas feedback

     

    SEPANG: The Atomic Energy Licensing Board wants the Public Consultative Committee on Lynas to explain the discrepancies in statistics on public feedback regarding the issuance of a Temporary Operating Licence (TOL) for the project.

     

    Dr Noor Hasnah Khairullah, the special adviser to the board's director-general, said the statistics presented by the consultative committee had been “misunderstood” because figures showed that most of the over 1,000 respondents did not even read Lynas' permit application.

     

    “We received 334 visitors and had over 1,000 responses. In some instances, they just brought a stack of responses and handed these in but with different names and IC numbers.

     

    “Out of over 1,000 responses, more than 900 were verbatim identical,” she said at a briefing at the board's office here yesterday.

     

    http://bit.ly/GShN48
    23 Mar 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    Would you consider that these 1,000 responses that were photocopies could be likened to the signing of a petition?

     

    I would.
    23 Mar 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6023) | Send Message
     
    How many people in that population would be qualified to understand the safety issues being discussed in the permit? The fact that only 10% gave individualistic responses could provide an indication of who could comprehend the permit and the involved issues. The remaining 90% are probably against anything associated with radioactivity irrespective of what so called experts say. So they signed a stop Lynas petition and their names were affixed to a standard set of negative responses. With petitions, quantity counts. With feedback questionnaires, content counts.

     

    Nothing that Lynas or the experts say is going to change these peoples minds. The decision will be political based. If Lynas wants that plant to be operational, they better send in the guys with the black bags and the other enticements to sweeten the deal.
    23 Mar 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (739) | Send Message
     
    I must say that I do not fully understand the risk. I have been an investor in REE stocks for almost 3 years now and have probably spent many scores of hours reading all that I could.

     

    Maybe I am just a slow study.

     

    I have however been very active in local political issues and know that it always boils down to a few activists persuading the masses.

     

    It seems to me that Lynas needs to launch a very believable PR campaign to win over the opposition. It is always an expensive exercise but then again so is their current investment that they cannot use. The best outcome would be to have the local people being trained and employed at the facility in whatever capacity possible. Even if it was just as landscapers etc. Lynas must actively get the locals to become stakeholders or this disruption may go on for years!
    23 Mar 2012, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (920) | Send Message
     
    For all we know, the vast majority of the locals may not oppose the LAMP. Has there been a poll? I get the impression it's members of the Malaysia's opposition party looking for anything to get attention.
    23 Mar 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • eggwis
    , contributor
    Comments (769) | Send Message
     
    Ung,

     

    I believe I did read that somewhere. Not a poll as such, but that the overwhelming majority of locals are happy to have the LAMP.

     

    ... the opposition party...I agree. and perhaps just a tad of influence/incentive from our good friends in Bejing.
    26 Mar 2012, 01:42 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Here is some good news regarding one of Lynas oppositions main delay tactics...
    http://bit.ly/GQ2bwP
    DoE: No need for detailed EIA from Lynas
    KUALA LUMPUR, March 24 — Lynas Corporation was not legally required in 2008 to prepare a detailed Environmental Impact Assessment (DEIA) for its rare earths refinery in Kuantan, the Department of Environment (DoE) has confirmed.

     

    DoE hazardous substances division director Datin Paduka Che Asmah Ibrahim told The Malaysian Insider that this was because when the mining firm was first granted the manufacturing licence to produce “rare earth oxides and carbonates” at the Gebeng Industrial Estate in 2008, DoE’s guidelines only required it to conduct a preliminary EIA (PEIA).
    Lynas’ ore-processing activity, which generates radioactive wastes, was at the time not listed as a “prescribed activity” requiring the preparation of a DEIA under DoE rules, she said.

     

    “Only recently, the DoE reviewed this list of activities, taking into consideration activities with radioactive impact, future impact,” she said when contacted yesterday.

     

    According to documents sighted by The Malaysian Insider, the DoE made the amendments on July 20, 2011, shortly after team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) completed their review of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) site in Gebeng.

     

    The IAEA had at the time just released its peer review report titled “Report on the Radiation Safety Aspects of a Proposed Rare Earths Processing Facility (The Lynas Project)” dated May 29 to June 3, 2011.

     

    But Che Asmah told The Malaysian Insider that the only key difference between the PEIA and the DEIA was merely the element of public engagement.

     

    “The scope of the study is essentially the same. The procedure is different but the terms of reference are the same,” she said.

     

    DoE’s website describes the DEIA as a procedure undertaken “for those projects with major/significant impacts to the environment”, while the PEIA is an “assessment of impacts due to those activities that are prescribed”.

     

    The structure of the PEIA’s approval procedure is led by a state DoE director while the DoE director-general oversees approval for the DEIA.

     

    It is required under DoE guidelines for DEIA reports to be displayed at all DoE offices nationwide as well as all public and university libraries for public feedback. During the period of display, members of the public are allowed to review and comment on the project in question.

     

    No such engagement is required under the PEIA.

     

    But Che Asmah pointed out today that despite the lack of public engagement for Lynas’ PEIA process, a similar engagement was done by the Atomic Energy Licencing Board (AELB) earlier this January.

     

    From January 3 to 26, the energy regulator put up for public viewing documents pertaining to Lynas Corp’s application for its temporary operating licence (TOL).

     

    Following the display, only three per cent of the feedback received opposed the project.

     

    “There was already public engagement done so I do not see any reason for the DEIA,” said Che Asmah.

     

    She added that as LAMP was already near completion, it was no longer necessary for the DEIA to be carried out.

     

    “Today, if any similar firm wants to conduct such a project, they would be required to conduct the DEIA before starting construction because the guidelines have been changed,” she said.
    24 Mar 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    Chi, Thanks for this and your thoughts on TAS and Lynas with their HREEs. Lets hope april is the month.
    24 Mar 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp,
    Lynas has slowed progress as they have neared the end and the politics have not been addressed well by the Malaysian government IMO.
    But I feel Moly slowed in the middle of Phoenix and GW has been slow from the beginning with their mine shaft and NI 43-101. So considering the competition, I'd take Lynas' situation.
    25 Mar 2012, 12:00 AM