Seeking Alpha

tripleblack's  Instablog

tripleblack
Send Message
Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
My company:
Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Mineals Concentrator - March 28, 2012 172 comments
    Mar 28, 2012 11:32 AM

    OK, back in town, and things are popping...

    Right now GWMGF is tanking, just hit my buy target of $.48...

    I am NOT adding more at the moment, since I need to know why it is suddenly eroding so quickly...

    I am wondering if the funding deal is in trouble...

Back To tripleblack's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (172)
Track new comments
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Byrons just executed a very large cross trade of 914,500 shares of GWG @ C$.50...
    28 Mar 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Byron has been selling since the convertible was announced. I think they are putting a convertible bond arbitrage strategy in place.
    http://bit.ly/H0dFtM
    The bulls can take the trade as evidence that the convertible is likely to go through IMO. But bears will say Byron is showing way less faith than their 4.5 times price target suggested. My view is more anger towards Byron and Hykawy himself. How can these guys pump the stock like they did in February and then bail with major funding? And how can GWG holders not take offense. Is this not Byron treating client's as "muppets" like Goldman? At a minimum the GWG holders from the Nov 2011 should take offense.

     

    Don't get me wrong, this happens in many stocks. But when you see this stuff it still stinks IMO.
    28 Mar 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GWMGF now trading at $.47xx...

     

    Stockhouse visit yields nothing but puzzlement. Is this just backwash from whatever Byron is up to?
    28 Mar 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    In hindsight - besides (obviously bad) insider information leaking - I think this makes sense as I assume most of the the same players in the recent convertible offering were large holders of GWG shares and are now repositioning their portfolio to either buy the deal as it nears completion or are simply just re-weighting their portfolio as owning both the convertibles and standard equities may have been too much for some. In addition, if you had an opportunity to buy the convertible deal and were also an equity holder the risk / reward profile likely favors owning the convertibles or at least lightening up on your straight equity portion. I guess its the glass half full scenario.

     

    So theoretically it could be the deal closing earlier than proposed.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    28 Mar 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I think you are onto the right trail, Dallas.

     

    My first impression of the big Byron cross trade (they were both buyer and seller, for those who don't know what a cross trade is in this context) at $.50 was that it was part of/driven by the funding deal...

     

    My second thought was to wonder what insider information is floating around...
    28 Mar 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I might agree if the bond was just from the British guys and the Canadian firms were buying in on the offering, but these guys are in the deal from day one. They were pushing the bond price/terms down knowing they would use the bonds to replace stock. And they pumped the price knowing they would sell the stock and just collect on the bond stock spread. And they did this in a public way so they would get their price and avoid risk through the bond protection. How is that not illegal insider trading? Byron is using insider information to reduce their current investment size and to eliminate risk through the bond terms. They could not do this if they were not insiders. Where is SEDER on this?
    28 Mar 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Not giving them a pass (RE: crosstrades given their close relationship) if my stated scenario is true. I certainly don't like it, full agreement on this, particularly if the second part of your scenario is true. I tend more to believe Byron is doing the trading for "clients' who certainly receive preferential treatment given the close relationship Byron has with GWG.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    28 Mar 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lots of large trades in Canada today:

     

    http://bit.ly/HgzUO3

     

    I see this as a bottom congruent with my earlier estimates...

     

    I am adding shares at $.47-...

     

    I suspect Byron is, indeed, acting as agent for others, and will not fall afoul of the authorities and Canadian law...

     

    As for their pumping efforts and high valuations calls...

     

    They're all bastards, and not to be trusted.
    28 Mar 2012, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    "They're all bastards, and not to be trusted"

     

    But being Canadian, they're very nice bastards, eh?

     

    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No, but I certainly did not mean to impugn "all Canadians" but all manipulators like Byron, GS, etc...

     

    Clarification purposes only.
    30 Mar 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    Here is a simpler Convertible Bond Arbitrage Strategy link with an easy example:
    http://bit.ly/HikE6W
    And more to the point:
    http://bit.ly/HmWWD5
    Note from the example in order to benefit in up, down and sideways trading the arbitrager needs to hold LESS bond shares versus common shares. So Byron would be a net seller to put the trade on. They will not buy as many bonds as they sell of stock for the strategy.
    But the other point is they are capping gains to have the sure win. Putting wild pumping articles, reports and interviews for years all the way up to the sell moment and then pulling out for the arbitrage gain is wrong IMO. And you can bet the arbitrage was discussed in negotiations.

     

    Perhaps, management figured the stock would find equilibrium before any future raisings would be considered. But if I did a conference call I would have trouble seeing Byron in the room. It's not like this approach shows much faith on their part. More like Byron chose a small gain from their insider position over showing greater faith in GW and holding out for the bigger gains. And my guess is only the biggest Byron clients got a chance at a slice of the convertible offer. These things are usually kept in large lots.
    28 Mar 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    The WTO Rare Earths Trade Dispute: An Initial Analysis
    by Gareth Hatch

     

    http://bit.ly/GYFhV6
    29 Mar 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/HhYQth

     

    Accumulators and sellers for Great Western...

     

    Canaccord is the largest net seller, other than "Anonymous" of course.

     

    Byron net added 205480 shares...

     

    Instinet (presumably buying for institutional investors as they usually do) was the big buyer, adding over 2million shares.
    29 Mar 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks to wwwaters on Stockhouse for the prior information.
    29 Mar 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas continues to present arbitrage opportunities...

     

    LYSDY at $1.14, LYSCF at $1.10.

     

    Also LYSCF is now very close to my buy target at $1.03.

     

    Selling LYSDY and Buying LYSCF...
    29 Mar 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I've been peeking at Lynas today too.

     

    But watch the USD et al - might be an even better price on the horizon.

     

    HardToLove
    29 Mar 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. The $1.03 buy target is where I will be adding to my trading blocs. This arbitrage is just opportunity.
    29 Mar 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/GWmDL2

     

    Morgan Stanley is reporting that China has lifted rare earth prices 10%.

     

    This news is attributed to an improved stock price for MCP, but is oddly missing in impact on Lynas (and probably GWM as well).

     

    It will be interesting to see what happens on the ASX tonight... Is the bottom in for Lynas?
    29 Mar 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding IAALF at $.13...
    30 Mar 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - @HTL ( "They're all bastards, and not to be trusted"

     

    But being Canadian, they're very nice bastards, eh?

     

    HardToLove )

     

    - Good One HTL ! ..... Yes; we your neighbors, mostly north of the 49th parallel, forever endeared for the trait of "niceness", do come by it quite honestly.
    - We are the proud prodigy of generations of our elders stern warnings to always; "mind your pleases, thanks, and pardon-me s..... or else !!! And, there were a few others like; "put on a clean set of underwear; ... you never know when you'll be hit by a bus! "... Never really understood that one, as I'm sure to have soiled myself anyway, were that to happen !
    - And even after all is said and done;... after we've finished screwing you over; ... we're most likely to extol that very same politeness; and express a "Thankyou"; .... or at the very least say that we're "Very, Very Sorry"
    - What can I say; ... it's in our DNA, ....eh !

     

    u4eah
    31 Mar 2012, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well, it wouldn't be right, even if they are bankers, brokers or analysts, to not acknowledge their redeeming qualities. :-))

     

    Seriously, being of a much earlier generation, I was taught many of the qualities you mentioned. So I really appreciate civility when I encounter it. As a nation, generally I think Canadians have to rank right up there with the best.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Mar 2012, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The Canadians I've known were very polite. As a kid, I went to BC and Alberta on several (6 or 7) family car vacations. Banff, Victoria Island, and several places in between. My whole family always loved it and considered it well worth the ride from So. Cal..

     

    When I moved to Texas my wife and I went up to the eastern half of Canada every Summer to break from the Texas heat. We saw a fair amount of Ontario and a lot of the Maritimes (all the way out to PEI) on different trips. They do a first rate reenactment at Lordsburg. Halifax has great accommodations and the Fort was cool. But to be honest a Digby Scallop (deep fried) is the worst way to eat scallops IMO.

     

    My wife loves Montreal because it has a European flavor. I like the food and jazz and hope to be there for their comedy festival some day.

     

    I really liked Quebec City. The horses were a little strong in old town, but the Mountmorency Falls and St. Lawrence were beautiful. And eating sour cherries in the mixed forrest was great too. I will show it to my kids and will enjoy getting back when my kids are older.
    31 Mar 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Canadian infantry are an ornery lot. Not much different than their US counterparts. Good shots too.
    4 Apr 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - TMR Comments on News from China; ( Chinese to launch REE Association - to include complete supply chain )

     

    - http://bit.ly/H6NQhZ

     

    u4eah
    1 Apr 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully this bodes well for Tasman and Lynas which have high HREEs and low thorium levels.

     

    Lets hope we get some good news this month from Lynas!!
    1 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Not a bad day for "everyone but Lynas and GW". It does appear the market loves the Lynas political strategy in Malaysia and the GW financing.
    2 Apr 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP is on a tear, and I have added a trading bloc of common stock. Anticipate selling around $42.23...

     

    I have increased my buy target for MCP-PA to $66.42.

     

    GOLDF is near my buy target of $.12, I will probably add a trading bloc with a goal to sell at $.15-.16+.

     

    Maintaining a buy target of $.46 for GWMGF (I am long and overweight Great Western, so any additional shares would be primarily for trading purposes around $.62).

     

    I continue to add IAALF at $.13-, trading bloc sales goal of $.16+.

     

    Lynas is now stagnant in the low $1.teens, and I continue lurking at $1.03.

     

    QREDF is holding well above my buy target @$.19, in the low $.20's...

     

    TAS just MIGHT be in a discernable trading channel between $2.35 and $2.65... I continue lurking at $1.94...

     

    UAMY continues carving out higher highs and higher lows. I am long this one, but would like to do some trading should it settle into a channel.

     

    UURAF is stagnant in the low $.40's, and only some dramatic move by government is likely to change this situation short term.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I like UAMY short and long term.

     

    I like Lynas in a month.

     

    IAALF and Pele are going nowhere special these days without better Uranium markets.

     

    QREDF and UURAF need too much financing IMO.

     

    TAS is an over promoted stock based on the theory that Europe needs independent supply. How many commodities are there where Europe has a full independent supply? I say that's stock hype and political BS.

     

    Moly is a slow motion train wreck with people buying the obstacles in the way hoping it prevents the inevitable disaster.

     

    Happy Monday and good luck to all! :-)
    2 Apr 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IAALF is currently gaining major new customers in its primary berrylium alloy business (European Space Agency, for instance) which has nothing to do with uranium.

     

    Its wholly owned technology for using beryllium alloys in the manufacture of nuclear fuel rods (which of course has something to do with uranium) results in large efficiencies (using less uranium, actually) and so could be attractive to the current nuclear power industry, though probably NOT short term. Its this technology which makes this one a long term bet for me.

     

    Even so, I can see IBC growing with their current business plan while we wait to see if the fuel rod opportunity (potentially a huge market, of course) materializes.

     

    Oddly enough, the recent death of the American manned space program may actually generate new business for IBC, as competitors like the ESA expand to fill the vacuum. It is also likely that their aeronautical business will grow as the high profile aerospace sales tend to lead developments in building planes (though it should be noted that often the lead time between adoption of new technology fruit from the space tree can be many years).

     

    As a small penny microcap, IBC of course continues to be a high risk investment.
    2 Apr 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB, I can't imagine European austerity effecting the crucial European Space Agency budget, can you?
    2 Apr 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, since they make so much money launching private satellites, neither can I, LOL...

     

    But seriously, the ESA is no more efficient than the next government operation, so even as NASA utterly failed to foster private development of space (and the large profits which would have flowed from that through them), the ESA does indeed have feet of clay when it comes to funding.

     

    A general Euromeltdown, of course, would crash the world markets in just about any equity investment, something which we watch over on FPA's European sitrep blog...

     

    Barring that armageddon...

     

    Most of the projects underwritten by non-private sources for the ESA are very long term, and COULD be stretched out even further (this has happened before). Some have strong general support in the EU (like their participation in the Freedom space station), but others could be vulnerable. In many cases we have seen such events in the past "balanced" with additional demand from private foundations and corporations, but there is a chance that "this time will be different" should the sovereign debt threat explode.

     

    More of an impact for IBC would be the collapse of sales of aircraft and their business supplying alloy feedstock. A good tripline easy to watch in that case would be Boeing. A return to a DOW 6000 would probably accompany this euro-contagion scenario, however, so even using Boeing as a tripwire would require the individual investor be very nimble.
    2 Apr 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    IBC (IAALF) has been bouncing -- dove to .121 on 78k and then rose to .134. Other than the comments here, I don't see much to trigger this.
    2 Apr 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • u4eah
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    - GWMG schedules conference call for April 11- 2012

     

    - http://bit.ly/HOj0bJ
    2 Apr 2012, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Any upcoming new events on the calendar for Lynas or Malaysia ? I'm not sure if no news equals good news in this environment.
    2 Apr 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is a waiting period. Chi just mentioned that he is looking forward to what happens with Lynas in May...

     

    I believe we have a chance for news in April about:

     

    1. Construction completion. Everyone is tired of hearing "close"...

     

    2. Results from the appeal made by the luddites with the AELB...

     

    3. Payment of the $10m bond and completion of any other pending requirements to activate the TOL...

     

    4. Signs that the Parliamentary Committee set up to pacify unreasonable and uneducated fears of the voters is doing its job...

     

    5. Update from Lynas based upon any/all of the things listed above. This could include plans for waste disposal, shipments of ore, initial testing of the LAMP, more detailed timelines going forward, etc.

     

    Chi could also easily be correct and we might not see any of these until May.

     

    I am still hoping we see first feed in May or (more probably) June, followed by production ramp up thereafter.
    2 Apr 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    There is a court hearing this week in Malaysia and a bigger hearing on the TOL appeal later in th April (no date yet) these could boost Lynas short term. But the key at this point is to just get LAMP operational. They could see some sp progress with each achievement on the way to that goal, but the real key is actual production. I think the slow slog to production will mute the build up and the market will take more of a "Show me" approach at this point.
    2 Apr 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    Lynas prospects sadly still grim!

     

    There is nothing that I have seen for weeks that is positive.

     

    How well funded is the opposition?
    2 Apr 2012, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    How many times will you write that same thing? I totally disagree. BTW, feel free to add some research to your comment.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    The process is certainly being drawn out, but "grim" seems like an inappropriate term.
    2 Apr 2012, 10:27 PM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Er, let me see... Funded by China?
    3 Apr 2012, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Date for the appeal hearing is April 9, last I saw reported by the Science and Technology Minister.
    4 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    How well funded is China?
    4 Apr 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/H9HQ6R

     

    canada ree. GW gets a mention as well as AVL

     

    "By 2013 when we're in production, we see ourselves growing substantially," Engdahl said, adding that the company may make an acquisition or two.
    2 Apr 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    Some news finally...http://bit.ly/HQBJBP still somewhat vague and inconclusive. Three weeks to complete LAMP, 4 weeks to get concentrate, but no license in sight at the moment. Hopefully, tomorrow's court case will start turning things around in a more positive, definite way.
    3 Apr 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Now that's the hopeful bit of news I've been waiting to hear..
    3 Apr 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bloom.bg/HbVNxA

     

    Bloomberg is trying to make a serious case for MolyCorp as a takeover candidate. Interesting read, pretty long article.

     

    I am long MCP-PA and common.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I am envious over the MCP-pA that you own....I was too chicken. However MCP is my fave REE play.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have a current buy target for the MCP-PA at $66, but that is because my core position is full and I am just looking for a trading bloc (and not eager even for that). My average cost for MCP-PA is about $60, so even if it hits $66 adding more would just increase my asp.

     

    My intention is to trade the MCP common (I recently picked up a large bloc for that purpose) taking profits and banking residual shares (I see it in the $40's again soon).

     

    Frankly I am doubtful that a whale (Rio Tinto, BHP?) would snap up MCP at this point, particularly for a large bonus over market price.

     

    GWM is probably more likely as a buyout candidate (and not at a huge premium to its current $.50 price, either). LOL, I read where Engdahl recently mused that they would be in a position to start looking for some acquisitions of their own in 2013... My thought is that when you hear CEOs talking like that, there are bigger fish snapping at their heels.
    3 Apr 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://mwne.ws/HJcbGz

     

    GWM has scheduled a CC for April 11.
    3 Apr 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    My gut says this will just be like the previous few, rehashing what is already known with the likely confirmation that the latest offering has officially closed and they are in possession of 10mil less some fees.

     

    My understanding is earnings will be released towards the end of April, why not just combine them into one.

     

    Unless a pr precedes this call, the Q&A might be the only thing of value.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    3 Apr 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas share price continues to erode, we are likely to see $1.09 or lower this afternoon. Confidence regarding the appeal seems lower than should be (which reflects a lack of faith in the Malay government rather than Lynas, imo).

     

    IF the appeal is delayed, I would expect to see something close to my $1.03 buy target tomorrow.

     

    If the appeal goes against Lynas, which I do not expect, I would have to rethink my buy target (sub $1 would be likely short term).
    3 Apr 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is just putting a series of lower lows, TB. On the aus. chart there isn't any support till 1.00.
    3 Apr 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    I'm just wondering how you all steady your nerves on Lynas?

     

    We've ridden this one up and down for about a year and a half to two years.. I've just added up how much I've actually ploughed into this stock vs how much it's worth today, and I've lost around US$2, 000.. Pretty fucking good investment for a small time investor eh?

     

    Now I'm small fry in comparison to some of you boys and girls, and I'm pissed off with the lack of progress for a supposed winner of the race to first to produce outside of China.

     

    There's no way I'm investing anymore in this stock. I'll leave what I have in my sock drawer, have a little shot of Jack to wash down the loss, and wait for some upward movement.

     

    My other darling, Great Western, hasn't lost me too much, as the stock never broke a buck, but again, another loser.

     

    Rare earths are now on the back burner for me.

     

    Potash... Now I never lost a buck on that!

     

    Water, fertilizer, energy, a few nice divvy stocks, metals and cash is all I'm going to look at for now.
    4 Apr 2012, 03:17 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Can't edit that comment anymore... Have bronchitis, and my head's not working properly.. The haircut on Lynas isn't as bad as I'm making out... I have sold shares during the course of my time with them, so I guess my total loss is under US$ 1, 000... Not much really, and not worth the rant, BUT, I still stand by the fact I'm really wary to plough any more cash into the company, and the main question still stands...

     

    How do you hold your nerve?
    4 Apr 2012, 03:49 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    My little gamble in "potash" is Verde Potash NPK.V
    4 Apr 2012, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Like them, and may take a position.

     

    My little gamble was in Allana Potash (bought in at 0.43 and sold out at 2.43. Jeez.. wish I'd put more on it. The laughter from banker friends of mine when I told them I invested in a potash junior in Ethiopia was enough to stop me going in guns blazing), and am probably going to put back in again once takeover news becomes clearer.

     

    My other one is Encanto Potash (not bad), and I'm also keeping an eye on Western Potash.

     

    Don't like any of the majors. Share prices are too high, and there's not much chance to ride any increase in potash price with them (unlike the juniors).
    4 Apr 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Nick, do you have an opinion about Sirius Minerals, the potash explorer operating in Australia?
    http://bit.ly/HTU2bu
    http://bit.ly/HqosNU
    4 Apr 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Nick England
    , contributor
    Comments (79) | Send Message
     
    Not heard of them before actually, so I can't comment.

     

    Am looking into them now, but sorry, I can't really pass judgement.
    4 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/HKVSu6

     

    Note that Lynas is now waiting on the AELB to issue to actual TOL - claims they have done everything necessary for that to happen - reiterates that the LAMP is 97% complete - is capable of beginning operation in 3 weeks - and will need a month to ship in ore from Australia.
    4 Apr 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Per Dowjones 05:36, US$80M of secured convertible bonds closed. GMP Securities, ISM Capital LLP and Byron Capital markets Ltd. exercised the over-allotment of USD$10M.

     

    Interest rate is 8% (we already knew that), mature 4.6.2017, pay interest semi-annually, and can converta at C$0.66/share.

     

    Cash commission to the agents was US$3.6M.

     

    The bonds and any shares from conversion have a 4-month hold period.

     

    None of this is available in the U.S.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2012, 06:04 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Funny how that works. I wonder if American companies routinely exclude Canadians from such deals...

     

    Its illegal for Americans to own real estate in Mexico, for instance, yet I'm confident the reverse is not true...

     

    NAFTA?

     

    A joke.
    5 Apr 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    TB and others,
    Greetings. Any thoughts on the upward price movement of various REEs as provided by MetalPages over the last couple weeks? (up in China especially, but some moves up ex-China as well) I'm wondering if we've seen a bottom, especially given that REE prices sometimes seem to move (relatively) unidirectionally once the Chinese authorities commit to a new stage of their plan. Thoughts appreciated.
    5 Apr 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe that the Cartel pulled back recently in its forcible absorption of the remnants of the private rare earth industry in China. The survivors, who tend to be the larger minnows, appear to have halted their panic selling of their hoarded stockpiles for the moment...

     

    After the Cartel has had time to digest their new assets and crank up their larger production (recently mothballed) again, we could well see a renewed effort to snap up the remaining fish - which will initiate the dumping of any remaining secret stockpiles, of course.

     

    I do expect this to reach a conclusion this year, and then see an end to any temporary influx of rare earth resources from this secondary effect of creating the Cartel.

     

    Of course this also gives the Cartel the power to crank up the process in tandem with Lynas starting up production with the LAMP... I would therefore expect these two events to occur together.

     

    What is still unclear is how much longer the major Japanese players can hold out. The recent additional supplies available on the world markets are running dry, and in any event were insufficient to renew their depleted reserves. At best they gained about what they lost when the quixotic Malaysian political shell gaime delayed the LAMP (7 months and counting).

     

    We will be seeing individual element shortages long before a general rare earth shortage hits the headlines, and it will occur among the list of elements which the LAMP will NOT be making...
    5 Apr 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, TB.
    5 Apr 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    With respect, How do we know that

     

    "the larger minnows, appear to have halted their panic selling of their hoarded stockpiles for the moment..."?

     

    What resource tells you that all important information? Where can an investor go to verify that statement?
    5 Apr 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, just my observations watching the re markets. Prices are going up - and they would not be doing that if the surviving private rare earth companies in China were still selling off their hoard. Now, if all of them were gone (this is not yet the case, there remains a substantial remnant, including such larger minnows as GQD, Great Western's new partner in the Steen processing plant) the Cartel would have ended their offer to purchase certain rare earth metals (this has not happened) from the smallfry/hoarders.

     

    Now, had I made it a more affirmative statement, ie "the larger minnows have halted..." then that would have inferred definite knowledge, rather than an indirect reference.

     

    Do note that I prefaced the entire comment with the phrase "I believe..."

     

    For futher background data, of course, the constant barrage of links presented in this long series of Concentrators will take one to ready sources for the information discussed...

     

    As for a link for my "belief" based opinions, that is the last 3 years of investment and participation, plus the usual sources for an individual's opinions.

     

    In this case I just voiced my opinion, which was sought by Lafferty.
    5 Apr 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water...

     

    http://bit.ly/HiXzCu

     

    No licence for Lynas.... Tracy seems quite surprised.
    5 Apr 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Will this ever end!
    5 Apr 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is up on the news and I'm not surprised. While the decision shows how weak the AELB really is versus the unscientific politics, the 17th is workable. I don't think the market expected concentrate to import before the 17th hearing. The key here is the court needs to make a decision rather than dragging this out. So far no one has shown any leadership in Malaysia. So like failed leadership in the US, the court becomes the leadership by default.

     

    No surprise in these times I guess, but one has to wonder why we have legislative and executive branches if the judicial branches are the only ones with the stones to get things done. Perhaps people should consider this problem the next time they want to complain about lawyers and judges. It seems to me that the courts are the only ones willing to do any work anymore.
    5 Apr 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This ties in with the April 9 date mentioned upstream by the Science Minister in this thread for the earliest date for an appeal hearing. Adding another 8 days just represents everyone involved (except Lynas and us, of course) saving face. I was not expecting the TOL to be issued until the appeal was settled...

     

    Though I had hoped that it would not be adding more delays in its own right. Look for the appeal process to include whining about "needing more time", probably from all 3 Malay sides (with Lynas the captive audience/whipping boy).

     

    Reiterating my $1.03 buying target, which was nearly tapped yesterday.
    5 Apr 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Of course Malaysia could keep pushing the goal line further out, but having a near term date is encouraging. And implicit in all of this is an apparent acceptance that the three week timeline for construction feels real this time based on the urgency in government action.
    5 Apr 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Even though my buy program just missed yesterday, I am definitely still pulling for Lynas to win through this political minefield.

     

    I'm aware of the appeal process, but is there a "higher appeal" available short of the courts?

     

    Anyway, after they (eventually) lose the appeal, I would expect the AELB to finally issue the TOL, but also for the luddites to sue again in court (they got bounced the first time because they should have gone after the appeal first).

     

    I really doubt they can win the suit, but we should expect the headlines and the court proceedings that follow.

     

    It would be wonderful if the court just crushed them and kicked the suit out...
    5 Apr 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    I think I was the culprit that mentioned MCP-PA in lieu of MCP here originally so I owe the Gades an update... I've now sold about half of my remaining MCP-PA in the 72-73 range and will probably place tight trailing stops on the remainder. Less a comment on Moly than on the market (insider selling, advisor sentiment, transports/industrials divergence, imvestor sentiment, VIX all blinking red.) If so, I think we'll see a 56ish to 76ish range for the pfd this year. Closed all the Jan 25 puts we sold on MCP as well. Don't know if I'll get back in to the pfd vice the common (or more put-writing if it declines); depends on the market itself -- remember, the forced conversion gets closer every day...
    5 Apr 2012, 12:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/HZFZ1R

     

    The Brits get back into the tungsten mining business...
    5 Apr 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (SNDXF.PK) My favorite longtime precious metal holding, just announced the intent to do a 5:1 reverse split for the purpose of uplisting onto a major American exchange. The share price took the usual shock hit (the bias against reverse splits is widespread)...

     

    I added today, and I will be re-evaluating my plans. Most of the nasty rs stories I have seen play out involved floundeirng companies performing reverse splits to cling to their exchange listing. The fact that a failing company tends to continue to fail (and the subsequent share price to fall) should not be surprising...

     

    In this case the prupose of the rs is clear, and the company's success with organic growth creating successful revenue streams from a strong slate of precious metal mining investments leads me to expect this move is predicated on a desire to access the enhanced list of institutional and retail investors which a major exchange listing enables.

     

    As John Petersen once wrote here on SA "You can't dilute a glass of beer with a shot of whisky".
    5 Apr 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, but it can dilute my perception of reality!

     

    All the girls looks better!

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Should be interesting to watch. It is something that GW is considering as well, for the same purpose . I will be watching that closely to see how it goes. Thanks for the heads up.
    6 Apr 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    There are several reasons why a reverse split is trouble. Yes, many are because the company has reached a share price where share issuance will be too low to reliably price. But it often covers a bad burn rate, a low return on equity, and poor progress as a junior. If you look at juniors that are reversed out they generally do poorly on most junior metrics. Few of these stocks reach production as the same company. It is often a warning sign of restructuring to come. Every stock is different, but every reverse split should cause a careful balance sheet analysis by investors IMO.
    6 Apr 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Right. A company in trouble usually won't solve the trouble with a rs.

     

    In the case of Sandstorm, none of those things you mention apply... And as a streamer rather than a miner, its situation falls within the mining sector, but equally it is a financial operation working against a financial sector goal.

     

    LOL, or did you think I was referring to Great Western?

     

    If GWM does a reverse split under the existing situation, it would be questionable. Better to get more of their milestones done prior to doing it. Just laying on some funding is not enough.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I meant the comment in general. I really know nothing about Sandstrorm. But if I owned a company and looked at the metrics and felt everything was fine, I would not rule out buying in on a drop from a reverse split. All in, it is not my favorite way to address an issue. But if I liked a company, I would not avoid them after the split like this.

     

    As for GW, they have made a lot of big decisions in the last month and more big information is near. I prefer to see those facts before I say much more. I have the same view but will take a wait and see stance till drill results. I'm not holding so that is an easy approach for me.
    6 Apr 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm thinking that drill results are coming very soon for GWM.
    6 Apr 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Russel index re-balancing schedule.

     

    http://bit.ly/Hj61k9

     

    Recall the results from last year when GWM was included.

     

    If that status changes, there will be another big effect, but less pleasant.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2012, 05:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/HZFZ1R

     

    "We will meet the (Science, Technology and Innovation) minister on April 17 and give our submissions. The decision by the minister will be final and not subject to any court appeal," Tan Bun Teet, chairman of the Save Malaysia Stop Lynas group, told Reuters on Thursday.

     

    Somehow I think this quote is not to be trusted...
    6 Apr 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Iel2zc

     

    China just allocated a chunk of their export quota for Inner Mongolia rare earth production to Baotou...

     

    Just a small chunk. 100%.

     

    LOL, the Cartel is large and in charge.
    6 Apr 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    @tripleblack: the allocation was production, not export quota. Inner Mongolia has allocated 100% of the quota that was assigned to it by the Chinese authorities, to Baotou.

     

    Interestingly this year it has pretty much impossible to track down the official list of production quota allocations to the various provinces and autonomous regions. Usually it has been published by now.

     

    What we do know is that the 25kt of quota that Inner Mongolia was assigned by the authorities, is 50% of the quantity assigned to that autonomous region last year...
    7 Apr 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Gareth.
    7 Apr 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I think MCP is the winner here in the USA...seems like nothing but good news comes out week after week, and the MCPpA confirms it lately.

     

    9:05 AM Molycorp (MCP) +1.5% premarket after announcing its proven and probable reserves of rare-earth minerals at its flagship Mountain Pass, Calif., facility have increased by 36%. MCP's reserves are now at 18.4M short tons of rare-earth ore at an ore grade of 7.98% and a cut-off grade of 5%, up from a 2010 estimate of 13.6M short tons. [Commodities, On the Move] Comment!
    9 Apr 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The government networking must be helping their situation, too.
    http://bit.ly/HpQomh
    9 Apr 2012, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I think that is the real key to MCP success, the gov't has chosen them to furnish REE if necessary for military in case China got mad and cut us off like they did Japan.
    9 Apr 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    But there are now complications with the national security aspect of the Molycorp story. Molycorp's acquisition of Neo Material Technologies enables it to sell some rare earths to China.
    I wonder how this situation is going to sort itself out.
    http://smrt.io/GR1SVk
    9 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Actually, Moly owning NEO is less of a conflict than it at first appears...

     

    Its unlikely that Moly will be selling rare earths to its Chinese subsidiaries in the near future, for domestic Chinese prices will continue to be much cheaper than ex-China prices. Moly will seek to sell all it can into the more lucrative markets.

     

    From a geopolitical point of view, the idea of selling light rare earths to China (if and when it ever occurs) would be attractive to most prospective American administrations, as would the American company acquiring Chinese industrial technology in that particular area.

     

    This might also serve as a valuable example of American/Chinese cooperation, something which can have a high geopolitical value in the event of high level trade negotiations.
    9 Apr 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I can see where Molycorp's agreement with Neo Material might help out with the trade talks, TB. We don't seem to be negotiating with the Chinese from a position of strength for the time being, however. It's another reason to increase our production of domestic rare earths pronto.
    http://bit.ly/HvPmXH
    9 Apr 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    If you would have told me Phoenix would be nothing but shells and foundations in April, I would have thought MCP would be crushed. A resource increase is always a good thing. Although at current La and Ce prices, how much is the NPV increase? I guess rare earths need a leader and for now it is Moly, but how long can the sector go without modern production? We need Phoenix, LAMP and/or Steen progress. The rest is trading noise IMO.
    9 Apr 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Reviewing the sector this afternoon, making some moves...

     

    GDLNF on Watch, may trade close to my current buy target of $.42

     

    Adding GOLDF at $.11x

     

    Watching GWMGF for signs of a bottom, its attractive to me as a trading bloc at these prices, but I believe it may bottom closer to .45

     

    Adding IAALF at $.12x

     

    Lurking with Lynas still at $1.03...

     

    Holding Moly pref. at $73-74, common trading bloc is up but waiting for $42 to sell...

     

    Adding QREDF for trade and accumulation of residual shares, plan to sell at $.21

     

    Watching SNDXF, will add at $1.60 buy target

     

    Watching TAS, will add at $1.94 buy target

     

    Taking profits on UAMY trading over $4...

     

    UURAF still dead in the water around .40

     

    Took profits on US Rare (USMN) at .09, may take remaining profits at .10
    9 Apr 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » UPDATE:

     

    ARAFF stagnant at $.31. In the sock drawer...

     

    AMJ on watch, dipping near my buy target just below $38...

     

    EEP also on watch, near target of $29.92...

     

    GDLNF still on watch, now at $.44

     

    Adding GOLDF at $.10x...

     

    GWMGF trading around $.45, adding shares...

     

    IAALF on Watch, still trading at $.12x, core full...

     

    LYSCF and LYSDY both trading at $1.05, near buy target of $1.03...

     

    QREDF still a Buy around $.17...

     

    SNDXF near buy Target at $1.59, may add at $1.60...

     

    TAS easing back toward $2, on Watch...

     

    UAMY now around $3.90, monitoring, Sell if it hits $4 again

     

    UURAF still stagnant around $.38

     

    USMN took profits at $.09, now down to $.07, Buy @ $.06...
    10 Apr 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): "Great Western Minerals Group Reports Initial Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Assays"

     

    ""These preliminary results are extremely encouraging for two reasons. First, the assays reported have either matched or exceeded the historical data. Second, the comparison of Rare Earth Element ("REE") distribution indicates that Neodymium, the primary REE consumed by our wholly owned subsidiary Less Common Metals, is at a higher distribution level than the historical data indicated. While these assay results are preliminary, we are confident that we will be able to confirm and enhance the historic information as we move toward the preparation of a National Instrument 43-101 technical report".

     

    http://mwne.ws/Hv5mMK

     

    HardToLove
    10 Apr 2012, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    oops HTL... didn't see you there. Sorry to repeat.
    10 Apr 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    GW intitial drill results....

     

    http://bit.ly/Ismi6t
    10 Apr 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Conference call makes more sense now. I am relieved that this will not just be the corporate update rehashing previously known milestones etc.

     

    Also, great article with George Ireland, new board member who I believe was active on the last few conference calls. While not directly related to GWG except acknowledging that he recently joined the board, he has an impressive pedigree and investment philosophy. I also noticed he is an investor in Cameco, where Vernon Kiss previously worked. We are looking for a new CEO; George was adamant on one of the calls about the costs of off-takes and preferred debt financing if I am not mistaken. Seems to be getting his way.

     

    http://bit.ly/Iw2vys

     

    Best,
    Matt
    10 Apr 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Are the meter measurements intercepts?
    The TREO% is very high but the Length and Width are very low. It seems odd to me. I would think the intercept would be longer or wider with such a high TREO%.
    10 Apr 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Monazite tends to run in veins, which of course are more concentrated than other sources, but also can require hard rock mining such as is the case with the Steen mine. Compared to other types of ore usually mined via open pit, the results look strange, but I believe what we are seeing is both good news and what we should expect in this sort of deposit.

     

    Some background on monazite and the Steen deposit. I believe this has been posted earlier, its not a new report: http://bit.ly/IfJsxK

     

    What caught my eye was the new TREO number at 23.75%, which is a large increase from the historical TREO percentage (already almost unbelievably rich and the world's highest TREO number). It's also good to remember than in hard rock miing (unlike pit mining) overburden and waste processing are much smaller concerns (whereas material handling is much harder for what ultimately is mined). Still, number increases like this mean that Steen needs to mine about 35% less ore to achieve the same results they had initially planned, and it also means that they will see a similar extension in the life of the mine (even assuming that the resource just hits the 20kmt goal set forth in the funding documents). There are obvious efficiency gains when processing ore this rich...

     

    Even the extensive piles of tailings came back at an overall TREO over 7%, making them one of the richest sources for heavy rare earths on the planet.

     

    Then again, the net increase in distribution for the key elements were extremely strong:

     

    "Relative to the historical data, the first batch of assays reported indicate: Neodymium having a distribution increase of between 4% and 9%; Samarium having an increase of between 12% and 18%; Dysprosium having an increase in distribution of between 42% and 84%; and Terbium having a distribution increase of between 175% and 225%. As a group the HREO proportion, not including yttrium, showed an increase of between 29% and 59% over historical values."

     

    These results are from about a fifth of the core samples, the first 198 out of 841 samples taken.

     

    I understand that the lab will also be reporting on the copper, gold, silver and phosphate content of the ore...
    10 Apr 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry, I meant to respond to your question, Chi:

     

    I am almost certain that these ARE intercept numbers, as the cores intercept the veins of monazite. The pictures I have seen of the working face of the Steen deposit show a dark vein of monazite which looks to be as wide as the cut and taller than a man. Compared to open pit mines working lower TREO deposits, the results are much different. There the rare earths are much more diffuse and the nature of the sampling assumes an entirely different extraction and processing technique. Even so, open pit operations don't include the massive overburden (which of course will be removed and set aside before the paydirt is processed seperately) in their TREO computations either. Steen will require considerable tunneling through waste rock and earth which will be set aside as well, of course, while the ore is segregated and processed.
    10 Apr 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I don't think it matters. The surface tailings are fine but the 54 assays are essentially surface samples the way I understand them. Historical Surface Samples were 8.29% measuring 85,000 tonnes.
    http://bit.ly/A4yiJD
    (Slide 10)

     

    Where rare earth prices are now no mine is feasible with intercepts under a meter and a half IMO. TREO% is great but separation can easily work with small TREO's. The problem here is these Underground Channel Samplings do not extend out more than a meter and the drill cores find the veins are about two feet (with the largest being a little more than one meter by one meter). How are they going to come up with 20,000 tonnes of rare earth for the bond issue requirements? And if they do, it is obvious it will be very expensive to mine it. The costs could never justify the tiny production.

     

    I'll wait for the conference call and final results to say more. But if you ask me, GW would be better off with ten times larger intercepts and one tenth the TREO%. That would give the same amount of rare earth in the cores but it would give greater hope for a larger resource. This is consistently small amounts in large concentrations making the early detection tools think there is more there than they found. When they get down to mining even veins .5 m x .5m will still require considerable extra digging to capture that. This is using a pick and shovel to get pieces of concentrate at a very slow and costly pace. We'll see what GW has to say about it in the CC.

     

    Also under drill core:
    The initial assay batch of 47 samples, representing 8 drill holes, returned grades ranging from 0.18% TREO to 31.07% TREO with a weighted average of 13.83% TREO in the mineralized zone.

     

    Wasn't the drill core suppose to be 17% on the historicals?
    It seems the press release takes the Underground Channel Samplings and combines them with the drill cores to get over the 17% historicals. Aren't the Underground Channel Samplings drills within the existing mine? I would think those samplings could be higher based on sampling where you can see or read monazite within the channel.
    10 Apr 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The pics I have seen of the working face show a vein of monazite taller than a man and as wide as the chamber. I believe they are on the GWM site somewhere, but I could not find them with a quick review. I have also seen them on stockhouse, but you know how hard it is to search that bulletin board...

     

    I suspect that where the drill samples show .18% TREO will NOT be where the miners elect to direct their tunneling or include the results in the paydirt portion of the production, LOL. At any rate, I believe even this group of samples are excellent numbers (worst case, ie, proving out 13.83% and no better), and I also think that the low production numbers required to meet a 2.7kmt yearly production goal (phase 1 of their plan of course) means they have room to grow and maneuver.

     

    I would be shocked if they use a pick and shovel approach from veins even several feet wide. I am certain they will be using traditional drilling and fracturing techniques to break up the ore and waste rock at the working face, mechanized mucking equipment to move the ore and waste, and mechanical transport via the rail system to the surface. Even so, this will be a pretty efficient mining operation needing only a small crew to achieve the yearly goal (at least initially, phase 1). Energy consumption for this sort of operation is a small fraction of that for open pits (all those busy diesels drink it down quickly). Steen, imo, would be a really iffy operation if they did, indeed, have 10 times wider veins with one tenth the TREO.

     

    Think about it, Chi. You are readily accepting an open pit where mountains of overburden must be repeatedly removed and handled in order to get to much lower percentage TREO that has to be laboriously seperated and transported at multiple stages - but feel that this tunneling style of mining will end up too expensive? I believe both are best suited to the type of deposit, its location, and the geologic realities. It would be madness to excavate a tunnel to reach the riches at Mount Weld, and it would be stupid to turn Steen into an open pit even if the veins were 10 times wider and 10 times poorer.

     

    Another way to look at the mining operation would be to envision the daily operation. 2,500 metric tonnes / 250 working days = 10 tonnes per day. This can be achieved with a single crew working a single shift, and more likely they will work the mine more than one shift after construction of the seperation and processing plants is completed. I would also assume that they will be adding the huge store of existing tailings to their process as well (I believe this will represent a large part of what goes through the plant in the early days).
    10 Apr 2012, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I don't mean literally that they will use pics and shovels. But adding energy and concentration together open pit is far cheaper mining where feasible because of the larger tonnages. Remember as they dig Steen out they have to constantly secure the mine tunnels as they progress through the mine. And 10 tonnes in a tunnel is a lot for a day's work.

     

    But my point is even if you extracted the monazite in high concentrations there just are not enough tonnes there for feasibility unless there is a continuous vein. And with such few and small intercepts there is likely no vein IMO. What the chances these single strikes per drill all match up to form a continuous vein? My guess is that issue is not addressed in the press release for a reason.

     

    Photos showing the work face mean little versus drills. They still have more to report, but if there are no larger intercepts (Hykawy had an under 6 meter note in Feb) these would be the smallest of any project I have seen. I realize open pits deal with far lower TREO's but the tonnages are much larger than this report. Add up the cores and these guys were not looking at much monazite, even if it was concentrated.

     

    My point is not which is better open face or vein? My point is both require enough tonnage to justify capital and operation costs. If they can only rarely find a one meter intercepts at the largest places and NO DRILL has multiple intercepts over one meter in length, it is not a vein. The drills show very small patches in high concentrations but no structure to mine! You need a structure to mine by any method. I do not see how these results will lead to a mining target.

     

    As for the surface tailings: 85,000 tonnes of resource x 7.27% TREO = 6,162.5 tonnes of rare earth. A modest recovery rate takes that down to 5,000 tonnes and a two year mine life at 2,500tpa. That is way short of the 20,000 rare earth tonnes required for the bond. GW needs a structure to meet those bond requirements IMO. Let's see what they say tomorrow.
    10 Apr 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Monazite is amazingly heavy. Volume required to hit such a low tonnage goal would not be that much. Again, its comparing apples and watermelons. Open pits which have insufficient ore quality fail all the time, or go through long periods of mothball as the prices for their production drops below break-even.

     

    Needless to say, the purpose of the drill program is to establish the extent and position of the network of ore veins. Thus far the information is favorable. The historic records indicate that the veins of ore were primarily continuous, but what was not known is what a step-out study would indicate (for all the old records showed the veins, though still very large at the last work face, COULD have been about to vanish, though this would be counterintuitive). Drilling past the work face and into the estimated resource area is where the meat of the NI program will be found.

     

    It has been determined that 20kmt would make the Steen program feasible. As I recall they estimated they could take 5-6 kmt from the existing mined ore and tailings, so they are looking for another 14-15kmt from the mine (minimum). These are modest goals, and a monzite vein a few feet wide will yield about a tonne of the unique "rock" monazite (most monazite placer deposits are in the nature of sandy deposits) found at Steen per running cubic yard. I once reviewed this on a much earlier Concentrator, but this is how I remember it.

     

    We will see how the whole NI report fills out the details, Chi, but I just have to see the current partial results as encouraging.

     

    This just might be one of those things that we agree to disagree about.
    10 Apr 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Sorry about the edits above. Refresh to get the link to the historicals I am looking at.
    10 Apr 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas (LYSDY) now sitting on 1.03. I pulled my buy program, for having come this far this fast - and given the general situation - I see Lynas as likely to drop further in the coming days. Funny, I really did not expect to see it as a penny stock again this close to finishing construction...

     

    If this IS the bottom fine, LOL, I have plenty already.
    10 Apr 2012, 04:44 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Lynas is knocking on a buck again in Aus. tonight. It bounced there before but that is because the license was "imminent".... Perhaps that will serve as support. But with the general sell-off, it is hard to say if that will hold.
    10 Apr 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Surely the consensus here is that once the protestors' challenges have been denied by the powers that be, Lynas will take a mighty jump.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): Here's the corporate with repetition of what we know and the positive spin on everything. I don't see how they can continue to claim they are working four North American exploration projects.

     

    "April 11, 2012 08:00 ET, Great Western Minerals Group Corporate Update"

     

    http://mwne.ws/IkCAOB

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » ?

     

    Not long ago they laid out serious money to keep those exploration projects current. I have not seen where any of them are in default of their various entangling agreements, HTL...

     

    IMO now is the time for GWM to focus on their core business, ie, LCM, GWTI, and Steen.

     

    Those exploration projects will still be there after they build out Steen, and at least 2 of them are very promising (they have had disappointing results from 1, and one other is still very early and raw).

     

    I fully expect them to continue honoring the various agreements booked for the 4 exploration projects, though frankly I believe some of those agreements were entered during the heat of the REE excitement, and constituted a "luxury" for a company suffering at the time from consistent funding issues. It would be different had they still been in the business of a junior explorer, and planning to sell off promising finds at a juicy profit.
    11 Apr 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    Well, they've been pretty much dormant and they certainly don't have a lot of cash laying around to throw at them.

     

    IMO, it's misleading to say they are still active in them since it's been so long since any progress was seen. If they said they still had agreements that allowed them to pursue the opportunities, that would be more accurate.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some tidbits from the CC...

     

    The Chinese government is not interferring with information flow from GQD...

     

    NI-43-101 will be out by late April to mid-May...
    11 Apr 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    did you see Boy Wonder was on the CC, TB?
    11 Apr 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I just deleted the last 2 comments. Frankly, I was ashamed of mine...

     

    What did he talk about aqwert? I still have hopes he'll turn into a journalist and bring us some real news one day...
    11 Apr 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    He had a few questions that David Kennedy handled about ore.
    http://bit.ly/HLmqZx

     

    you can listen to the CC there. Not sure if you have to be registered or not.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    Dang! I always arrive late for the fun stuff.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Aqwert.

     

    I actually heard the last part of Kennedy's comments (I think, if I am recognizing his voice). I was interested to hear that GWM is going to be aggressive releasing updates between now and the ultimate publication of the NI. We will all see a lot of analysis downstream of that...

     

    robert: You snooze, you looze. You would just have picked on me, and it wasn't my fault, a wild bird snuck into my studio and terrorized my 9 month old puppy, I was distracted and trying to keep from wrecking anything major.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings: Thanks for the update. I trust you ejected the wild critter and calmed the domestic one with out undue destruction. Aren't new puppies fun? What kind of pooch did you get?
    11 Apr 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its one of the litter of 5 puppies our miniature schnauser had last year.

     

    We adopted the schnauser after my wife and daughter found her roaming a major truck stop off I75 (my daughter had a flat and I came over to fix it - jammed lug nut....).

     

    Turned out the little dog had been hanging out, living on scaps from the truckers, for over 3 weeks. She was thin and scared...

     

    And as it turned out, pregnant by another breed (about the same size, looks very much like a wire haired terrier of some kind was the father).

     

    The mom is only about 3 years old. She's a pure miniature schnauser, and whoever dumped her at the truck stop should be shot...

     

    UPDATE: Puppy enjoyed the romp, bird escaped intact, hard working artist back trying to prepare for show this weekend...
    11 Apr 2012, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Glad you gave the schnauzer a good home. We have a Shi-Tzu puppy now...12 weeks old...If I can figure how to upload a pic, I will make that my pic for SA .
    11 Apr 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB: Greetings. Good on you sir! Make sure you get her spayed in a timely manner. I'm sure you recall what our Jack Russell went through with doggie menopause. She recently had a seizure of some sort but seems to have recovered. Her blood work was good so we have no idea what caused it. She is 12 years old now though so there isn't much we can really do at this point. Good luck and profits on the upcoming show and safe journey to you. I'm looking forward to your observations.
    11 Apr 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All done, and all the puppies too. The pic avatar is him. "George". We found good homes for his 4 sisters and brothers, and kept him to be company for his mom.
    11 Apr 2012, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    After being drawn and quartered.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2093) | Send Message
     
    Large earthquake in Indonesia today.
    http://wapo.st/ItGxj7
    11 Apr 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was monitoring that early this morning on the Asian news services... They were really frightened it would create a big tsunami like the last one...

     

    Sumatra seems to be in a sensative area.

     

    I hope they are OK!
    11 Apr 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    The report is that seabed action was sideways, not up and down so chances of tsunami are small with mild waves.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Apr 2012, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/ItIdck

     

    GWM article...

     

    Looks like we will be getting frequent updates for the sample lab results between now and when the NI comes out at the end of April or middle of May.
    11 Apr 2012, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Why is MCPpA down today ? any news?
    11 Apr 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No logical reason I can see. The recent news a few days back that they had increased their resource estimate 35% (and that was with a 5% cutoff!!) with the SEC 7 rule standard (which does not allow for including "inferred resources", which ARE allowed in Canada's NI-43-101 standard) should have sustained the share price.

     

    This IS following a recent trend however...

     

    If an REE company has excellent news, it sees a brief, muted, pop, and then tails back down for no apparent reason. Look at GWM and MCP this past week for examples.

     

    If an REE company has poor news, it sees a prolonged erosion back to the point where it is clearly a market over-reaction. (Lynas, Malaysia's favorite whipping boy).

     

    Even sector-wide news that rare earth prices have popped 10% deliver nothing substantial or lasting.

     

    Absent various geopolitical conspiracy theories...

     

    It would appear that investors are simply worn out from waiting for really substantial progress. The trail of bread crumbs no longer satisfies, and its a grind through the valley of death from here until some of the projects succeed.
    11 Apr 2012, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    @tripleblack: MCP's increase was for their mineral reserves, not resources. While the equivalent of "inferred resources" are not permitted for consideration in estimating reserves under SEC Guide 7, neither are they permitted for consideration when estimating reserves under NI 43-101 either. The MCP announcement inexplicably omitted to mention that NI 43-101 covers reserves and resources, not just resources.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes. Perhaps MCP left them some room to publish a future update that will align with the NI rules as well. They do seem to like to do frequent releases.
    11 Apr 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • AlbertinBermuda
    , contributor
    Comments (693) | Send Message
     
    The MCP guys know what they are revealing and what is required by the various reporting agencies.

     

    It sounds to me as they are exploiting the grey areas to sell their book.
    11 Apr 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    In September 2011 Lynas released Mount Weld drills (outside the existing pit) that were part of the resource expansion in January 2012. The assays had the following outstanding intersections (Note the first column is the intercept size):
    • 27.00m @ 12.26% REO – RC1194
    • 60.00m @ 12.36% REO – RC1195
    • 44.00m @ 10.29% REO – RC1196
    • 43.50m @ 11.34% REO – RC1203
    • 59.00m @ 10.13% REO – RC1213
    • 34.00m @ 12.10% REO – RC1288
    • 41.00m @ 10.81% REO – RC1289
    • 22.40m @ 15.04% REO – RC1297
    • 30.00m @ 15.33% REO – RC1304
    • 42.00m @ 13.63% REO – RC1305
    • 25.50m @ 12.42% REO – RC1312
    • 72.00m @ 11.18% REO – RC1327
    As well as shorter higher grade intersections, including:
    • 8.20m @ 15.83% REO – RC1232
    • 12.00m @ 15.62% REO – RC1239
    • 6.60m @ 20.92% REO – RC1273
    • 10.00m @ 15.96% REO – RC1275
    • 12.30m @ 16.32% REO – RC1276
    • 11.80m @ 15.58% REO – RC1285
    • 11.00m @ 19.19% REO – RC1298
    • 12.00m @ 17.01% REO – RC1311
    http://bit.ly/rPnoLc
    For Comparison here are the GW Underground Channel Samplings:
    • 1.19m @ 24.45% REO --STK-C016
    • 1.80m @ 15.90% REO --STK-C017
    • 0.54m @ 40.12 % REO --STK-C018
    • 0.45m @ 19.34 % REO --STK-C019
    • 0.36m @ 37.72 % REO --STK-C020
    • 0.20m @ 35.74 % REO --STK-C021
    • 0.57m @ 22.60 % REO --STK-C022
    • 0.81m @ 18.86 % REO --STK-C023
    • 1.09m @ 33.38 % REO --STK-C024
    • 0.20m @ 36.99 % REO --STK-C025
    • 0.93m @ 15.97 % REO --STK-C026
    • 1.03m @ 19.40 % REO --STK-C027
    • 1.00m @ 27.06 % REO --STK-C028
    • 1.45m @ 26.41 % REO --STK-C029
    • 0.56m @ 22.65 % REO --STK-C030
    • 0.73m @ 17.88% REO --STK-C031
    And here are the drill cores:
    • 0.50m @ 0.18% REO --STK-104C
    • 0.60m @ 16.33% REO --STK-104D
    • 0.60m @ 31.07% REO --STK-108A
    • 0.62m @ 16.72% REO --STK-112B
    • 0.50m @ 9.83% REO --STK-114A
    • 0.50m @ 7.00% REO
    • 0.35m @ 9.08% REO --STK-114B
    • 1.19m @ 1.07% REO --STK-115A
    • 0.98m @ 29.59% REO --STK-119

     

    http://bit.ly/Ismi6t
    The point is to show the differences between a vein and open pit mine. It also shows the importance of both intercept size and TREO% in evaluating a resource. I think this also helps understand size and quantity as well.
    12 Apr 2012, 01:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I've seen those before, Chi...

     

    But with all the criticism of GWM for not having an NI compliant report yet (though they are obviously working on it), I find it odd that Lynas (which I am overweight and long, long, long with) has none and has no plans to create one. True, they publish under the JORC rules, and they are not a Canadian headquartered company like GWM, but still...

     

    For my own peace of mind, I will be glad when everyone has published exhaustive detail (whether to meet the NI rules, the JORC rules, or the SEC rules) AND started producing and making lots of money. Then we can focus on a solid base from which to evaluate the various companies and make our picks.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    Mount Weld is well past the JORC stage (Aussie equivalent to an NI 43-101). Lynas has a JORC; it has measured resources; Indicated resources and Inferred resources. The above drills for their Jan 2012 expansion were in the "area containing Inferred Resources". So Lynas is more than "NI compliant" but will not get the NI since they are Aussie and their data is well past that explorer stage the way I understand it. I assume their resource focus now is Duncan metallurgy.

     

    I think the best way to view this is GW and Lynas are just very different stocks. I don't feel a balance sheet analysis draws the distinction between manufacturing and resources like the bloggers. Rather I see GW as an early explorer versus Lynas as a near producer.

     

    Having digested the CC and the media information by GW this week, I will say I am more bearish than ever on GW. Steen is just way too small so far. Without improved results the funding requirements, as they stand, will not be met. The current mine channel goes out a meter or so (note: every channel sample reported starts in the first two feet except one).
    And if you combine all 8 drill holes reported they were looking at a total of:
    5.56m @ 13.83% TREO (weighted average).

     

    Every single individual shorter higher grade intersection listed in the Lynas report is larger than that. And while I realize these are very different projects with different plans, there is more to this than just that. This is not big open cut versus small vein deposit. It is much more like feasible versus unfeasible; or a clear structure verses chunks and chips IMO.
    12 Apr 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I consider Lynas a near producer (hopefully VERY near) - and GWM a future producer (trailing Lynas by about a year, perhaps 1.5 years).

     

    MCP is a small producer striving to become a large one, with the increase out about another year or so.

     

    Lynas should still be the first new ex-China LREE producer with a modern plant...

     

    GWM will be the first new ex-China HREE producer...

     

    MolyCorp will fall somewhere behind those 2 categories.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi,

     

    Just want to clarify. You believe the NI report that is due soon will show that Steen can't meet the 20K threshold and funding will fall apart? Which if this is correct, did management enter into this deal either blind or knowing that they couldn't meet the threshold and somehow have a plan for what would amount to disaster for the company IMO?

     

    Thanks.
    13 Apr 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » With the Steen tailings worth between 5 and 7kmt, the mine will need to produce 13 or 14 kmt to meet the 20kmt threshhold.
    13 Apr 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    I think GW feels either more drilling or more reporting will reach the 20,000 level. The NI would not be determinative of the threshold. It could easily say right now that the 20k level will be met if GW wins the Prospector's Rights appeal they are currently doing. Like all reports an NI is only as good as the information available even with its standards.

     

    What I do know is currently even if every drill core lined up to form a new vein, they are way short of 20k IMO (based on the small intercepts). Now, GW only reported 198 of 841 samples so there is more to come. Most miners report their best first, but GW is a real platypus so they may not do it that way. But after going over these results several times and comparing them in different ways I find them weak. There is no structure found and very little direction about where to mine beyond extending the channel walls in a few places.

     

    There is a reason no one has seen a map of the intercepts. There is a reason we have not seen where each drill is located. These guys are early in the reporting, but clearly they have yet to find a drill direction. The only map I have seen is a map of the old channels. Bloggers are matching up the intercepts to find a vein but unless I missed that I see nothing from the company that does that. Does anyone have a link? I could have missed that, but I think that is key and for me it is unproven.

     

    The historicals put the Steen total at 29kmt. They claimed 85,000 tonnes of tailings resource x 8.25% TREO = 7,012.5 tonnes of rare earth. The tailings are now 85,000 tonnes of resource x 7.27% TREO = 6,162.5 tonnes of rare earth. The underground broken was estimated at 47,000 tonnes of resource x 5% TREO = 2,350 tonnes of rare earth. That number should go up IMO due to the higher than expected channel TREO%. But the key is the in-situ (drill cores). Here, the historicals are 117,500 x 16.74% TREO = 19,669.5 tonnes of rare earth. The drill cores indicate 13.83% TREO (weighted average) and I find it impossible to believe Steen historicals expected this small an intercepts. But if we take 117,500 x 13.83% TREO = 16,250.25 tonnes of rare earth.
    So here is the historical math versus the current reporting:
    Portion -------------- Histo... -----------Current Measure
    Surface tailings -----7,012.5 ----------------6,162.5 tonnes of rare earth
    Underground Broken 2,350 ----------------2,350 tonnes of rare earth
    In-situ (drill cores) --19,669.5 -------------16,250.25 tonnes of rare earth

     

    TOTAL ------------------29,032 -------------24,762.75 tonnes of rare earth

     

    So by my calculations at least half of the breathing room is gone. This further represents a 14.7% disappointment on the averages alone not counting the small intercepts AND "Four holes (that) did not intercept obvious mineralization, likely due to the pinch and swell of the vein system." http://bit.ly/ApKTC7

     

    The following could further reduce the number and cause bond concerns:
    - A reduction in resource size due to small intercepts.
    - A reduction in TREO% avereges with further results
    - No clear structure or mining target reducing feasibility
    - A reduction in resource size due to the current Prospector's Rights denial. I have not seen if these rights were assumed in the historicals or not.
    13 Apr 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We are looking at a very incomplete process, Chi, so its premature to make sweeping assumptions. Any estimate (either way, better or worse) at this point is just that, a very early and incomplete estimate.

     

    Still...

     

    As I read the detail they have assay results on "tailings" only, not a complete set of results for tailings either, anymore than any of the other programs, and of course NOT the stored ore, which at the new (preliminary) numbers would be augmented by 30% (if we are guesstimating things).

     

    Using your own regimen, the guesstimate numbers should be:

     

    Portion -------------- Histo... -----------Current Measure
    Surface tailings -----7,012.5 ----------------6,162.5 tonnes of rare earth
    Underground Broken 2,350 ----------------3055 tonnes of rare earth
    In-situ (drill cores) --19,669.5 -------------16,250.25 tonnes of rare earth

     

    TOTAL ------------------29,032 -------------25467.75 tonnes of rare earth

     

    I agree the overall number will go up, as the channel samples indicate a strong increase (even if one does not include the added bonus that the increase is coming in what are now very valuable heavies). When it comes to the small drill core set yet assayed, I would also think that its percentage might yet average a higher number when the other 80% of the samples are examined.

     

    I am also taking note of the large size of the vein which is being channel sampled in the 2.5 area of the mine. 250 meters is a large working surface, particularly when dealing with incredibly dense and heavy monazite ore.

     

    I see the small sample size (with a lot more samples yet to come, of course) running 2.91% points below the historic estimate as unsurprising, and unalarming.

     

    Its unreasonable to think that the current Prospecting application was involved with the historic resource estimate in any way.
    13 Apr 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think one of our big differences is that the channeling numbers that gave all of the hope are the least important to exploration (with small intercepts beyond the walls) and they are easily gamed. They are not random. Many of the best numbers are intercepts that start at zero. This is like a surface sample in that if you drill into monazite rock in the channel you should get a high TREO%. Overall, I am OK with the channel numbers but do not see a 30% increase and not finding more of a structure is bad.

     

    The only thing keeping me from calling the results alarming is that there is more to report from the phase. If the intercepts do not find a structure to target after the full Phase I and II are reported- PANIC!!!
    Early drills are designed to confirm your best guess at the largest possible drill targets. Later drills define the details of targets. And the final drills drill from existing resources to finish targets and expand the resource.

     

    GW has a lot of drills here. They are making the number seem smaller by claiming some are for just for the NI. But should we believe they didn't target anything with those drills? And shouldn't basic science cause you to designate and separate those specific drills throughout the drilling, lab, and reporting processes? Can anyone tell me the drill numbers that were not for resource expansion verses just testing? You can't. Why? Because, GW set this up from the word go to ignore the worst drills as testing and NI drills. That is not cool or transparent and merits a discount in the NPV calculation of Steen IMO.

     

    So GW:
    - Admitted four clean misses from the beginning;
    - They hid the weak drills by not designating which drill codes are for resource expansion;
    - They have failed to identify any drill targets or structures in this initial report;
    - They are reporting the smallest intercept numbers of any rare earth project I have seen (certainly every REE project in the TMR list with drill results has multiple intercepts at least four times the size of the largest reported intercept in the GW press release);
    - They smoothed over the reduced weighted averages by combining the Channel results with the drill cores; and
    - They STILL end up with weighted averages below the historicals for the tailings and in-situ drill cores.

     

    All of this "hedging" in the results has still left them currently with lower total numbers even though expectations were for an increase AND future drills will not benefit as much from the above hedging tactics.

     

    In the junior world where we all trade as speculators, it does not surprise me that many this week decided to exit and wait to reenter versus buying and selling if things turn worse. The former is better supported by the current data IMO.
    13 Apr 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Clean misses is something which happens when you are working with veins, whereas a clean miss with a Mountain Pass or Mount Weld pit operation takes actual incompetence... Its also why the comparison gets ridiculous so quickly.

     

    I don't see full details, true, but its an initial, fragmentary, report of a small number of samples which we all know will ultimately be part of a larger one. They have promised more detail and more results frequently over the next few weeks. Frankly, maintaining a constantly shifting analysis/guesstimate with fragmentary data will get tiresome for us, Chi... How about if we just wait a few weeks and see what comes out?
    13 Apr 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I agree it is time to wait for more information. I also think GW could give clarity to several of these issues. Perhaps they will Monday. I think the weak share price this week was as much about the drills as it was about the promotion language in the press release and CC. If GW is pleased with the results tell us a good reason why. And saying the channel numbers combined with the drill numbers makes them a high average is not persuasive IMO.

     

    If Engdahl or Billingsly came out on Monday and addressed a few of the basic exploration issues the stock would benefit. They have said there will be more updates coming so this could easily happen. For now, I've kept my concerns here (out of the search engines) in hopes that the clarity is coming. I think the company deserves that respect. But I think holders and would be holders deserve more GW commentary as well.

     

    As for the results... well, there is more to come. But anytime a company releases results I consider them fair game. There will generally be more drills and more results coming when a company is in an exploration stage. If the intercepts improve I'm sure the stock will be rewarded. But commenting on what is released is all we can do. Further results will be digested and averaged with these in due time.

     

    I think the share price action this week reflected high expectations created by the promotion of the historicals and a lot of resource expansion talk in 2011. I'd call it the "Hykawy Overpromotion" slide this week. From here I think GW will trade less on expectations and more on numbers.
    13 Apr 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    what got Lynas popping up premarket? I show 5,ooo sh at 1.18 up ..oops make that 9,000 share at 1.16 up 10.48%
    12 Apr 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1891) | Send Message
     
    Aqwert, only item I saw of note is that the judge threw out the complaint by "residents [who] sought a certiorari order to quash the AELB's Jan 30 decision to issue the temporary licence to Lynas."
    http://bit.ly/IGYvLL
    12 Apr 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe this is correct, Mercy, though I am thinking the real reaction will come if Lynas wins the AELB appeal.

     

    I am seeing a strong bifurcation within the re sector which was once the norm, but had faded over the past 8 months...

     

    When Lynas goes up, MCP goes down - indicating some large traders are using one as a hedge against the other, imo.

     

    GWM seems to be a seperate affair, at least for now...
    12 Apr 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    I have noticed that MCP/Lynas relationship too....You guys are just too lucky IF Lynas is up 20 cents today=20% without the appeal decision.

     

    I like the price of Lynas at $1, but I still think MCP is the long term winner.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    That article was from 4/12 though - I wouldn't think it would have effect today.

     

    Published: Thursday April 12, 2012 MYT 2:54:00 PM
    Updated: Thursday April 12, 2012 MYT 4:35:23 PM

     

    USD tanking, I wonder if that might be having effect.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Apr 2012, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    I think both of those times are after the ASX close last night and before the jump in Germany today.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    At this point I feel I don't really understand what Moly is anymore. Is it Phoenix? Is it about Neo with a rich resource? Is it United States supply? What is the budget and is it still fully funded? Is it just a hedge fund trading vehicle? It might be doing great but it's too confusing for my investment.
    12 Apr 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    thanks Mercy. Some weird trades premarket.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    The real issue is the 17th I think. If Lynas gets a favorable ruling it will have a big jump. After that, the opposition is trying to do a protest on the 24th. If that passes without further government stupidity like "The psyche of the public over the science of the project", then Lynas would be in great shape.
    Of course that is still a few "if's", but the whole Malaysian soap opera has never really changed the potential of Lynas.
    http://bit.ly/IyfEKL

     

    April 12 — Lynas Corp will be permitted to sell and export materials produced at its rare earth refinery in Gebeng during the plant's trial run, the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) said today.

     

    The nuclear regulator said this would be subject to the products passing AELB and the Department of Environment's (DoE) safety checks if and when the temporary operating licence (TOL) is issued to the Australian miner.

     

    "We have no problems, so long as we clear the products and it is safe," he told reporters at AELB headquarters here.

     

    But AELB director-general Raja Abdul Aziz Raja Adnan stressed that it would be in Lynas' interests to obtain a full licence as soon as possible because it will not be commercially viable to run the plant on a TOL.

     

    This was because under the TOL, Lynas will have to keep paying AELB and the as-yet unnamed third-party assessor for regular assessments.

     

    "The third-party assessor, for two years it's about five-point-something million. They are still paying for my assessment. If they want to pay for my assessment, it will be very expensive.

     

    "The fee was RM1.2 million just to read the books (submitted during application). So it's expensive. Temporary operating licence is not a way to operate a company," he said.

     

    Raja Abdul Aziz also said Lynas would be given chance to improve the operational safety of its plant during the test phase, adding that AELB would not issue a full operating licence until all standards have been met.

     

    He added there was no set time limit for these safety improvements, pointing out that Lynas will have to apply for another two-year TOL if it cannot implement the changes requested during the current TOL period......

     

    Parliament approved a select committee on Lynas on March 20 amid opposition furore over its terms of reference and suspicion that the nine-man panel will be used to "whitewash" the issue.
    12 Apr 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • FreoDoctor
    , contributor
    Comments (112) | Send Message
     
    While yesterday's ruling is good for the sp in the short term, the reality is there is still a lot of road ahead of us. The appeal to the judge was premature, given the minister had not yet heard the appeal from the other group. That is next Tuesday and will probably be favorable. If the minister then instructs AELB to issue the license, it will be good news, but will likely prompt a legal challenge at that point (even though the issuance of the license is not supposed to be challenge-able in court). If the AELB defers, awaiting the PSC's results, we will be delayed a further couple months. Meanwhile Fuziah has said they are appealing yesterday's decision. What a waste of time/money/credibility! I don't get that one.

     

    On a more positive front, has anyone else noticed the slightly more aggressive stance from management in the last couple weeks? It started with the mobtv press conference with Eric Noyrez last week (a VERY good video imo). But in Lynas's announcement last night (http://bit.ly/J2gcol) they are definitely on the front foot here as well. My read on this is the coy now has strong confidence in their process after completing their pilot processing program. My sense is they have strengthened their resolve based on some success at a larger than laboratory scale test. Or maybe they are just frustrated like the rest of us...

     

    Lastly, there was this from SMSL...http://bit.ly/HPdjdO sure what to make of this one. Maybe just more evidence of the dysfunction and lack of cohesiveness of these guys. Seems strange to me though.

     

    Anyway, all in all, a good result yesterday, but, as Chihawk said, next week is probably the more significant result.

     

    Oh, one last thing...I mentioned before I'd post when I bought some more, so all of you smart contrarians could know when NOT to buy :-) Well, I took yet another step deeper into the murky water yesterday...glta
    12 Apr 2012, 10:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas arbitrage window is open again this moring, LYSDY at 1.14, LYSCF at 1.18...

     

    Given the likelihood (but NOT certainty) that the AELB appeal hearing will back the Lynas position...

     

    $1.14 might be a good entry point. Or to avoid chasing it, the Ask is $1.15...

     

    Good luck to all!
    12 Apr 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC on the ASX usually has about 10% short positions...

     

    Coverage for those positions should make for some fireworks there tonight. Their trading yesterday was up A$.025, and that was without the news from Malaysia which printed after the ASX closed.

     

    The ASX should see a large gap up at the open (we are in a situation where the American pinks are leading, of course, which often occurs when afterhours news hits), and then I would expect a strong reaction from short coverage and their own take on the news.

     

    Friday in the pinks may also see a gap up at the open, and then we could see a continuation of the momentum...
    12 Apr 2012, 11:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At one point LYC was up A$.11 (shorts covering?) but it settled to a gain of A$.08.
    13 Apr 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Just to mix things up:
    I think QRM Quest Rare Minerals should be someone's bet on today's roulette wheel. It is too good a HREE resource at $2.24 IMO.

     

    GALXF Galaxy Resources is down on a raising but they just made lithium in China from their Aussie mine.

     

    If REE prices are recovering is Dacha Strategic Metals the short term pure play?

     

    And can we get a drive by pump for HREEF Stans Energy Corp (remember those in 2011)?

     

    TB, is it time for the Boiled Sheep's Head trade (HREEF & IAALF) again?
    12 Apr 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, I never stopped with IAALF. Look back, I have it trading pretty constantly, including now between $.12 and $.16-.17...

     

    HREEF got stuck in the mud for a while, so I left it alone, but...

     

    I see it as bouncing off a bottom, and at $.69 it has good headroom to about $.88-.90, short term.

     

    Galaxy with their long trading halt and raise, and little volume in the pinks, is best traded on the ASX imo, as is Northern right now...

     

    Dacha still lacks a coherent business plan imo.

     

    QRM is one of the leading 2nd tier re juniors, along with AVL and a very few others. I have long suspected that these will garner a LOT of attention after Lynas, MCP and GWM get their acts together and "prove the concept" that ex-China production has a strong future.
    12 Apr 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Chi,
    You like QRM better than NTU at this point?

     

    Thanks
    12 Apr 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    jimp
    I prefer NTU to QRM because the cost to production and metallurgy looks easier to me. But the thing about QRM is it could be the biggest home run long term and if you believe in the long term rare earth story, it's hard to ignore QRM. Still, for now, on fundamentals I prefer NTU.
    12 Apr 2012, 04:43 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    You think QRMs resource is better and larger than NTU? Can you elaborate why you consider QRM the "biggest home run long term"?
    Is it because it has one of the largest dysprosium deposits?

     

    Thanks
    12 Apr 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    QRM will be larger and if they built it out it would separate and be a great long term HREE model. But it will take big money for Quest to get there. NTU is easy metallurgy (Xenotime) and will sell concentrate with a good distribution and recovery rate. The larger the project the later I like to buy into feasibility. I think NTU will have an easy time raising the capital they need with more good drills and a nice JORC. I want to have a full position by funding which I see happening by the end of the year. Quest is the more advanced explorer but is further away from full funding in my mind due to the complexity of the project. Both are good juniors IMO.
    12 Apr 2012, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/IfQqMU

     

    AVL is on the move...

     

    Louisiana. Interesting...
    13 Apr 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1891) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB. If we are to learn from the Lynas and Malaysia experience -- I would wait on adding until AVL has actually purchased the land and received the operating permits in hand!!
    13 Apr 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » For a buy and hold plan... No doubt about it, MJ!

     

    My process with these juniors is to trade them over a period of time, accumulating residual low/no cost shares toward a core holding goal.

     

    Identifying which ones to pick at this early stage is the challenge, and moves like this are important to that process.

     

    There are few rare earth companies that have graduated to major American exchanges, so I look more carefully at AVL and QRM.
    13 Apr 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree Mercy.
    I will say Nechalacho is low Th and U. Also, I drive the Texas Gulf Coast for work regularly (monthly). I spend a lot of time in the Golden Triangle (Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Vidor) and go to Lake Charles and Cushatta casino in Louisianna here and there. That area has refineries and chemical plants all over the place (and beautiful Cajun and Creole ladies as well :-)). These people are no Malaysians. By comparison they have education, brains, and want to work. I cannot imagine any of them personifying stupidity to embarrassing levels like the clowns in Kuantan. BTW, does anyone have a Kuantan business ETF I can short. A blistering short on Kuantan might be a good pair trade for my Lynas.
    13 Apr 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17253) | Send Message
     
    I know some folks follow graphite/graphene here, so thought I'd post a link to this recent article tht talks of both and a couple of miners.

     

    "The Graphite Investment Boom Is Just Starting" by Ben Axler.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    13 Apr 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    HTL...
    Thanks for the link ...fascinating video.
    Very informative for the functional story...my question is the functional commercial delivery timing.

     

    This type of video offers a simplistic link for those less technically informed...show a real life use.

     

    This type of video can be effective in "translating" REE and energy related product deliverables...i.e. AXPW.
    14 Apr 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator is this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    999999999999999999999999

     

    99999999999999999
    16 Apr 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4605) | Send Message
     
    Not sure if this has been posted before, but this is the first time I have found it
    OT : GeoThermal can reduce lithium shortage:
    http://bit.ly/I2XlxV
    22 Apr 2012, 04:34 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 http://seekingalpha.com/p/1n9hd
    Mar 18, 2014
  • SIlver. (FRMSF.PK) up 8.50%, (SLW) up 7.16%, (GPRLF.PK) up 11.83%. Also (PLG) up 6.19% for the platinum group.
    Nov 4, 2010
  • Conviction picks this week: (NVAX) and (NATUF.PK).
    Oct 24, 2010
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.