Seeking Alpha

tripleblack's  Instablog

tripleblack
Send Message
Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
My company:
Stan Bruns Illustrations
  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, May 10, 2012 148 comments
    May 10, 2012 9:20 AM

    There's a mountain of news coming our way soon...

    Lynas reports quarterly and financial reports today. Needless to say, even this is likely to be overshadowed by the flood of news and reaction when the Malay government finally rules on the Appeal and presumably issues the TOL for LAMP.

    GWMGF is already tardy with the promised drill result updates, and now we are nearing the end of the "late April to mid May" promise for their NI-43-101 report.

    MCP is nearing the point where they either update the status on Phoenix, or start backing away from their promise to hit almost 20kmt in production in 2012...

    Multiple juniors in the 2nd tier are backing away from the current crop of doubtful promises also, with AVL taking a hit this week. QRM is next in the barrel, imo...

    Disclosure: I am long MCP.

    Additional disclosure: I am long LYSDY.PK, LYSCF.PK, ARAFF.PK, GWMGF.PK, GDLNF.PK, GOLDF.PK, UAMY.OB, SRSR.OB, USMN.OB, IAALF, MCP-PA, MCP, QREDF.PK, TAS

Back To tripleblack's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (148)
Track new comments
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KSJiHN

     

    I agree with this article. Buying opps are present.

     

    Lock and load...
    10 May 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (979) | Send Message
     
    TB

     

    Do you find GotGoldReport of value?
    10 May 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, particularly when I am trading juniors in the PM mining space (I used to do this a lot, but pulled out last year and have not re-entered just yet, though I am thinking... Soon).
    10 May 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Just added TAS, QRM, and LYC recently. In 5 -10 years I'm betting
    we will be happy jumping in now... This is truly a nascent industry in the west.
    10 May 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWG fully funded as of now! Compliant letter being filed in order to release remaining funds from escrow with NI being filed on or before May 31. The funds were released based on only the following:

     

    "The Confirmation Letter is based on geological and assay information limited to the immediate area of the historic mine developments at Steenkampskraal including: recent resource confirmation drilling; the first phase of underground channel sampling; structural mapping; and underground mapping of mineralization.

     

    Not included in the Confirmation Letter, but anticipated to be incorporated into the NI 43-101 Report, are results from recent sampling of mineralization in the up-dip and down-dip extremities of the historic mine area, the two tailings dams, and the rock dump."

     

    http://bit.ly/JYG2tL

     

    Best,
    Matt
    10 May 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Matt! I had poked around last night looking for something like that, but did not see anything...

     

    Great news. Now we see what effect it has on the share price!
    10 May 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Why does GWG give so little disclosure? If they know enough to say the comment below, why have they only released the prior 198 of 841 samples submitted? No other driller makes investors wait till the NI 43-101 for basic drill results.
    http://bit.ly/Ismi6t

     

    The Confirmation Letter indicates the presence of at least 26,600 metric tonnes of TREO under the Inferred resource category. The Company expects to file the compliant resource estimate on the Steenkampskraal property (the "NI 43-101 Report") on or before May 31, 2012.
    http://bit.ly/JYG2tL
    11 May 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think investors will wait till the NI 43-101 to move the share price, and I agree. GWG's comments without the drills is little information IMO. How do we know the Confirmation Letter is not the product of renegotiation or a modification of the terms?
    11 May 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, are we shaping up to have good news from all 3 of the larger rare earth players over the next week?

     

    GWM I will check off today...
    10 May 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4156) | Send Message
     
    I was just looking at the index of posts of this concentrator http://bit.ly/ynCLQR

     

    It seems like the time between new concentrators has widened a lot. Seems close to capitulation perhaps.

     

    Oddball analysis I know... but I'm waiting for a phone call that is 20 minutes late.
    10 May 2012, 01:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The amount of resources set aside for blogs on SA has slowly grown, allowing us to let these long-running instas get larger.

     

    For a long time we had to create new blogs before they hit 100 comments, else the site would get slow and throw off error messages. Then it was 120 comments, then 135, 150, and even 200 recently...

     

    Now the resource-o-meter is running backwards. I guess we will eventually have to create new Concentrators more often again.
    10 May 2012, 01:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jon, my methodology for investing is similar to some trees, like the California redwood. Those trees require the occasional wildfire to activate their seeds. No disaster, no new trees.

     

    I smell fire in the building, and see blood running down the gutters...

     

    And smile. Time to buy, time to use all those resources carefully squirreled away during the good days!

     

    Frankly I believe the rare earth sector is one of the few investment groups that is really "ripe" for buying right now. I still believe the greater market might have another long leg to drop on the S&P to finish a mild correction from recent highs (about 1422 as I recall).

     

    But the REEs are down a lot more than the rest of the market, and at least in their small aisle, I'm seeing real blood.
    10 May 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    I am accumulating (LYSDY) at prices below a buck.
    10 May 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    at the RMB... this saga is just so bizarre.

     

    Thursday, May 10, 2012

     

    Public hearing on Lynas takes an unexpected turn

     

    May 10, 2012 (Source: The Star) -- The public hearing on the Lynas rare earth refinery took an unexpected turn when Save Malaysia, Stop Lynas (SMSL) chairman Tan Bun Teet requested to be granted immunity by the Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC).

     

    Tan told the PSC that he had crucial evidence to prove the plant in Gebeng here was not safe and would only divulge it if he was granted immunity from libel.

     

    "I want the PSC to provide a written guarantee that the necessary Parliamentary privilege be granted so that the evidence given will not be used against SMSL for a libel suit," he said Thursday.

     

    PSC members Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan and Datuk Zulkifli Noordinthen asked Tan to just reveal it if he was so sure it was the truth.

     

    Tan stood his ground and repeated the demand only to be told by PSC chairman Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin that the committee did not have the power to grant it.

     

    Tan then staged a walkout with his delegation.

     

    He told reporters outside that he would reveal the evidence in due time in the courtroom.

     

    Mohamed Khaled said the walkout appeared to be pre-planned as Tan had prepared a press statement which was distributed immediately afterwards.

     

    "Before entering the room, he already knew he was going to ask something which was impossible for the committee to grant.

     

    "Even MPs who are speaking outside the Parliament are subject to libel," he said.

     

    There was another heated moment during the hearing when Indera Mahkota MCA Youth chief David Choi shot back at Zulkifli while he was asking a question directed at Malaysian Medical Association (MMA) representative Dr Carmen Chew.

     

    "This is not the Parliament. The Government appointed you to listen to us, not to pressure us with questions," said Choi.

     

    Zulkifli had asked Dr Chew whether she agreed the ore processed at the old Asian Rare Earth plant in Bukit Merah were tin tailings.

     

    He also asked if there was a study conducted to determine whether the birth defects suffered by children born there was linked to the plant's operations.

     

    "I just wanted to know so we can propose a study if there was none done. Why do you feel pressured?" Zulkifli queried.

     

    The PSC also listened to a delegation led by Pahang Bar Committee chairman Hon Kai Ping as well as other Kuantan residents representatives during the four-hour hearing.

     

    The public hearing will continue Friday at Universiti Malaysia Pahang in Gambang on Saturday.
    10 May 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » So much for the vow to abide by the results of the appeal.

     

    Local politics. And all being acted out before the international community...

     

    What a sad day for Malaysia.
    10 May 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Truth is always a defense to libel. In fact, even a resonable belief in the claim would negate the libel intent requirement. So if the proof is "solid" there is no reason to ask for immunity.
    11 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    So much for my hope that the TOL would be issued at the end of the day Friday when the press and newspapers would be heading out of KL for the weekend ...

     

    What upcoming courtroom date was Tan referring to when he was going to release his bombshell news ? I love how this moron wants to announce some fictitious story about LAMP being unsafe but wants libel protection because he knows the story is false and defaming. If the story is correct and factual, then no libel immunity is required.

     

    Has anyone been able to determine the funding source for SMSL from public disclosure documents yet ?

     

    I just wish the TOL would finally be issued and let SMSL fight the plant operation with all of their factual data and resources. They've been given their 15 mins of fame (more like 30 mins at this point), so it's time for them to climb back into their hole !
    10 May 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    4:08 PM Molycorp (MCP): Q1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $84.5M (+222% Y/Y) misses by $31M. Shares -2.9% AH. (PR) [Commodities, Earnings] 1 Comment
    10 May 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmm, the miss could be a cooler, but the earnings are in line with what most of us were expecting...

     

    More interested in hearing how Phoenix is doing and whether they can still hit their promise date.
    10 May 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    May 10 (Reuters) - Lynas Corp Ltd said on Thursday it was on track to start up its rare earths plant in Malaysia next month after an official in the country called it "the safest rare earths plant in the world."

     

    http://reut.rs/M1Yt7a
    10 May 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. The PSC likes us, that seems apparent... But then again, they don't close out their review until June 19...

     

    ...And I hope a certain Malay Science Minister is not waiting to read their final report before issuing a judgement.
    10 May 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just reviewed the recent MCP CC, trascript here: http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Darned if it doesn't look like MCP, like Lynas, just MIGHT squeak through something close to their goals of Phase 1 production by the end of the year.

     

    I'm still thinking that MCP is unlikely to hit their 19+kmt goal, and Lynas hasn't even hinted that they will be rolling at that level by Q4 2012, but this race is now a dead heat. With GWM finally getting their funding freed up this week (and did they pull a fast one or just have a smart operator - perhaps that new closer they hired - help with the mice type?), if the other two stumble (and LOL, when has that ever been surprising for them?), GWM might yet sneak in there and make it close in 2013.
    12 May 2012, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    TB, is MCP a buy at this price point?

     

    Thanks
    12 May 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe MCP is a buy as well. Of course, I have been adding MCP-PA since it hit $64 (well below my prior $66 buy target). My core for MCP-PA is now full, and I have 2 trading blocs of MCP common which I intend to unload at $40 and $42 (unless things improve even more rapidly, in which case I might alter that plan).
    12 May 2012, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Something I posted over on Yahoo that I thought also belongs here. There seems to be a lot of confusion over how Lynas' remaining cash plays out against the latest timeline (see link to CC above, also links earlier in the Concentrators for the latest Quarterlies from Lynas for more detail).

     

    "I've read it several times, including when it was first released. Still says the same things...

     

    I wonder if you have read what I have been posting, however?

     

    I believe they are going to be VERY tight with the current timeline, and there is a clear danger they will have to get more cash to finish phase 2 or crank up LAMP to meet orders (and the unknown is still when the Malay bureaucrats will release them from durance vile).

     

    I'm aware that they do not have any other financing lined up right now, they canceled the earlier version, but that's why I am speculating they might well reactivate their Sojitz link. This concept supports my idea that they are running very tight, not that all is fine and they are flush with cash.

     

    Some observations about assuming that the quarters past Q2 2012 will require the same level of funding:

     

    1. Phase 1 is going to be done. In Q2 they project needing $45.3m to accomplish this, which is of course a healthy chunk of the $160.9 total. I would expect this line item to vanish from Q3.

     

    2. Production costs will go up somewhat, and start to reflect shipping costs for the flow of ore from WA to Malaysia. I would expect Production costs to hit the $30m range by Q3, which will be where the tightness is felt as I do not expect them to see any revenue flow from this source until very late Q4 or more likely early Q1 2013.

     

    3. The Report includes the phrase "Security Deposit has been provided..." and is not included in the cash available, though my take on that is they are talking about the initial $10m payment, not the full $50m which will flow into that account at a rate which I estimate will be about $10m per quarter, probably over the next 4 quarters (not counting Q2, which I belive will not see substatial ore shipments), though I would need more detail about the trigger shipment amounts to determine if the early shipments in Q3 will be sufficient to trigger another deposit.

     

    4. Construction costs (we are told) are on budget, implying that the restricted amount remaining ($120.8m)will be sufficient to complete things. This means that the company will be requiring money to operate (other than the restricted cash)of something like the Q2 estimate of $42.2m - $43.3m in Q3 (or $53.3m should shipments require adding another $10m to the bond) - $53.3m in Q3 - and 53.3m in Q4. This will total $192.1m, against cash on hand of 182.7M.

     

    5. Based on the latest quarter, however, the company has some minor positive line items which might help a little, say to the tune of a few million per quarter, from the sale of warrants, options, interest earnings, etc. But for a tough estimate, let's discount any of this and say they are going to need more cash in Q4, at least another $10 if they can stretch their quarterly $10 payments to the AELB at bit, or $20m if they cannot.

     

    6. IF (which seems likely to me) they cannot start receiving revenue from production until Q1 2013, they will also need operating money to carry them through whenever that revenue starts up.

     

    So yes, they are running tight and might well end up needing additional cash, given that the ongoing passion spiele with the Malay bureaucrats seems to go on forever.

     

    Best case... They can beat their own timeline to the point where they can forward samples to the customers - the customers take less than the full 30 days to OK the samples - and they can be charging the LAMP tanks for a full run to overlap those 30 or 40 days and trim the elapsed time until they can pull in some revenue to, say, October 2012 instead of January or February 2013.

     

    Tight, real tight, and any maneuvering room they have is fading fast."
    12 May 2012, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    Being new, I do not know much about the history of things and only the big picture on REE's such as the China agenda.

     

    This does make me ask "Will Lynas get approved in Malaysia?"

     

    I am beginning to doubt a positive outcome there, and if it is approved it will be more expensive than planned or expected.
    12 May 2012, 05:58 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    Given the completion level of the LAMP, I would think a 10M offering at this point would provide a 10% discount since it's really more of a bridge loan kind of thing. If so,that might have a temporary dilution effect on the stock taking it briefly into the .90s again. Is that the worst case for the stock price Trip?
    12 May 2012, 06:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The odds are heavy that it will (eventually) be approved. There is no (underlined) real world barrier to approval.

     

    The extra costs are real, and building, and the subject of much discussion. Thus far I would say that the appx. 1 year delay has cost them about $250m, and may end up costing more (depending on how long the whole Malay bureaucracy local politics debacle drags on.

     

    One of the things I do is avoid investing in Countries with this sort of problem. Lynas is about 50% Australian, 50% Malay - and prior to this experience, I viewed Malaysia as a coming Asian tiger (if a small one).

     

    Now I have them ranked right up with Venezuela nationalization risk, China political/geopolitical (and accounting and cultural) risk, and the long list of no-no's in South America, Africa, the Middle East, Russia, etc.

     

    Due to delays and cost over-runs (and the prospect of operating in the Land of the Luddites / Chinese semisecret operatives) I have lowered my once high expectations for Lynas, which I still think will win through to success (though later, perhaps not even first producer ex-China, and with stock values which will struggle to hit projections).

     

    I am long and overweight Lynas, and list it as a current "Buy", even so...

     

    But not with my prior enthusiasm.
    12 May 2012, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I don't think you understand the LAMP financing. You seem to be mixing several issues. Phase 2 is fully financed by Sojitz and remains on budget according to all reports. Phase 2 Sojitz cannot be pulled forward, it is committed to Phase 2.

     

    Phase one appears financed at least until late Summer depending on the burn rate. If this approval finishes in June, Lynas should be fully funded. The only funding replaced was the Morgan funding due to the favorable terms offered by Mount Kellett. I think these funding sources could both be considered for a bridge financing if approval looks good and it is just an issue of time with production. Honestly, Lynas looks like a great buy to me as the fears are looking more irrational and the price is low. This combined with the recent progress in the approval process looks good to me.

     

    Moly is a mess. That call tells you 2012 is pure fantasy. I'm doubting 2013 to be frank about it. These guys are pushing Phoenix out faster on the timeline than the clock can tick. To concluded Moly and Lynas are in a dead heat requires you to doubt everything Lynas says and to buy Smith's nonsense hook, line and sinker. I see it different. Moly is far from ready and Malaysia in their shameful and pathetic way is attempting to crawl along. I still hate Malaysia and have nothing good to say about them, but I think we get approval in June.

     

    As for GW, I am still further in the bearish camp. Declaring full funding and no drills is a big red flag. The estimate of 26,600 metric tonnes is a sizable reduction from historicals so we know the results are bad. How bad? Well, saying you can't get them till we a have the NI (and thus phase 2 results) is very bad.

     

    All reporting instruments (NI, JORC, ect.) are only as good as the information used. You can make a very speculative NI if you spell out the basis of the speculation. I suspect that will happen here. We are likely to see estimates made for portions of Steen undrilled to reach 26,600 metric tonnes. This would assume a lot more than the drills prove but would be allowed under the instrument if properly disclosed.

     

    But the problem with this "end around" approach is that is undermines the certainty the NI is designed to provide. I think this is why we see no real reaction in the GWG share price. Investors rightly worry about whether Steen has enough REO with funding or not. The lack of comments by the experts on the subject is also becoming deafening IMO. They may now know this Steen thing is a fraud and are starting to watch their legal backsides. That's a wise choice IMO.

     

    My best guess is Steen never operates. But if future drills improve significantly it could operate at a loss. So if I am right, why grant the funding? The biggest reason is that the value of GWG without Steen is large enough in the minds of the funders to conclude they will get paid either way at maturity. They can arbitrage their equity downside against the bond from there as well. This would result in the bond guys eventually getting the manufacturer in a restructuring.

     

    But in any case investors should expect good drill results before buying the stock. Bond holders are in a very different situation than equity buyers and the funding without fundamentals offers no real support for an equity investment IMO. Honestly, this thing looks worse than ever to me and only good drills will change that for me.
    12 May 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Read it again, Chi. I took pains to point out that the reports are that the Phase 2 construction is covered by the restricted funds. The entire debate I was entering into on Yahoo was over the other cash burn, all of it extracted from Lynas' most recent quarterly report and Q2 projections.

     

    I was not referring to Sojitz current funding (all of it 100% commited) but to the concept of going BACK to Sojitz to get additional money if they need it somewhere in Q4 or Q1 2013.

     

    My statement was clearly that I consider the current estimate for completing Phase 1 in Q2 as believable. No confusion (on my part) there.

     

    Chi, you have to walk through the numbers quarter by quarter to see where the problem lies. This is why I lay it out quarter by quarter, using extensions of Lynas' most recent numbers for extimated cash burn. IF they don't get the TOL until June, and the clock starts ticking then, that means that we add 5-6 weeks to ship the ore from WA - 60 days to crank through the qualification run - another 30 to finish the customer cert. and then another 60 days to make the order and hopefully enter the age of revenue flow (if the customer elects to wait 30 days to pay, which would be normal, then cash flow would not begin to come in until Mid-February some time). That would be 7.5 months from June, or February 2013 operating on cash on hand.

     

    I never said that Lynas had no options to find more funding, on the contrary I believe they could get a small additional amount from Sojitz (or from any number of other sources). The discussion was about the idea that Lynas is still "fully funded" given the cash burn and the delays. I believe it MIGHT avoid a need for more cash (and lay out a scenario where that could be accomplished) but NOT if the TOL is still hanging into June. In that case, they would need more cash, barring some marked acceleration of the process they have currently laid out.

     

    I am critical of BOTH company's ability to hit their goals, Chi. Lynas is likely to encounter normal teething problems on a brand new plant - and MCP is likely to experience something similar. But while Lynas has been waylaid in Malaysian hell, MCP has been building, and catching up somewhat. A year ago it was clearly Lynas' race to lose, they had a large lead. Now that lead has been cut, and they are experiencing another of a long list of interminable delays at the hands of Malay political operatives.

     

    I don't have to doubt what Lynas says to see where they are going to have to go back to the funding well later this year. Their own data clearly leads to this conclusion. In fact I don't see them lying to us in any of this. As usual, they have been transparent and comprehensive supplying data on time and in good detail.

     

    I am not sanguine that Moly's plan will succeed - LOL, I just see both sides struggling toward a messy, late, tie in 2013 somewhere. Sure, this requires Lynas to maintain its run of bad luck and delays - and MCP to continue to flounder along its long time meandering path.

     

    I see Lynas' situation all at the mercy of Malay politics, meaning their every action and plan from here until production is priced and timed to perfection, and such situations just don't equal "full funding" with new, untried plants with this sort of history and situation.

     

    Moly has thrown megabucks at Phoenix in a bid to catch up, and made some progress, but I would reckon they will come their own quota of croppers like they usually do, but if the luck breaks their way, they MIGHT just pull it off and start up production before Lamp.

     

    I don't like the lack of drill data from GWM either. Still, now we see how quickly they build out their plants at Steen. Any further delay for the NI data would, I agree, be devastating. And you may well be right that they lean on the speculative "inferred" category far too much.

     

    I am less perturbed about the conditions for funding. This of course dovetails with my idea that GWM is a processing company which might end up with a producing mine for 5 or 6 years (more if they find more ore than seems likely), rather than a miner with a 5 or 6 year life of mine. By the time Steen winds down, it will be 2017 or 2018, and the likelihood that those processing plants will be running titaniium tailings or some other source of ore or concentrate appears strong.
    12 May 2012, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    With Lynas you are assuming a full commissioning process and teething problems as well. That might happen, but the plant has moved through "Pre-commissioning test packs: >85% complete" http://bit.ly/JM3AXi (Slide 20). And I feel Mount Weld operations have gone smooth suggesting the engineering is good. We both agree other funding is available if needed. But the real key is Lynas is trading at a dollar. The risk/reward on the stock is very favorable.

     

    I do not see meaningful progress with Moly. Most plants rocket through the first 75% of construction and get bogged down at the end. Moly is falling behind in the early stages. And yes IMO they are still in the very early stages. The construction so far has been low tech grunt work and the process is already delayed, slow and facing permit issues. The actual timeline is moving out faster than the build. And of course there are more than a few questions about the Phoenix budget the way this is currently set up.

     

    The GW situation is unreal to me. Name me a profitable mine with a $100 million dollar price tag from the beginning and a 5 year mine life? The business model is a total joke. Even you are counting on titanium tailings in the area before the mine is even started. My experience with juniors is they must be a massive opportunity from the beginning to even be profitable by the time the realities of production set in. I am convinced GW must be the first junior GW bloggers have owned in order to buy into this shoestring story.

     

    I often resent juniors for misleading investors when the story fails. But at some point I actually start to blame the investors themselves. At this point if this thing fails I think it will be hard to garner sympathy for all of the "head in the sand" approach I see with this stock.
    13 May 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi, with Lynas I am assuming that they know what the timeline for the commissioning process will be (I'm quoting them and their numbers from the CC). Where I question the timeline is the simple truth that there is nothing in the planning set aside for any hiccups. Either it goes just as planned, with no further issues, or the timeline will have to slip. I'm not looking forward to the delays, if and when they happen, but it is prudent (given the project's nature, history, and scale) to anticipate that something could happen... And since the discussion I am sharing with everyone had to do with the prospects for needing further funding - and when - that is an angle important to everyone.

     

    I agree that Lynas is still a buy (to repeat something I already pointed out earlier), though the long and expensive battle to reach this point in the latest delay has tempered my enthusiasm and prognosis.

     

    Moly's progress is something we will have to agree to disagree with. Either the construction of new physical plant is meaningful to a prospective investor or it is not. I have voiced my doubts about Moly clearly all along, including my doubts that they can achieve their goals for 2012 (I too think 2013 is far more likely, and probably not January 2013, either). But I won't back away from the idea that Lynas may not be producing by then, either.

     

    GWM is one that I have long held was much the riskiest play of the 3, the longshot compared to the big guys. Now its the HREE processing and LCM longshot compared to the LREE processing and NEO/Siemens big guys, but the odds got a little shorter when the y raised the money to at least primarily build the first new wide spectrum HREE-capable processing line ex-China. (But I still think their timeline is unlikely and their funding is probably going to fall short just like the other two).

     

    As for the stories told by all 3 companies to arrive at where they are today...

     

    I don't see any angels in the trio.

     

    Disclosure to any new eyes on the blog: I am long all 3 of the stocks discussed, warts and all.
    13 May 2012, 08:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry I missed this one FPA...

     

    I believe that Curtis will avoid any sizeable dilution. His specialty is handling funding chores, and I would be shocked if he hasn't already created a backup plan (particularly given the turn of events discussed in this narrative). Going back to the well in Japan is my pick, but he could well go back to Wall Street instead, or work a deal with customers, etc. A stock offer is possible, but I consider it unlikely.

     

    Some of the company's opponents (as those who have followed this blog know, there is an active adversarial situation with competing fans of the various companies which can sometimes become quite heated) are seeking to take the gloomiest possible view of the cash burn prospects, while the partisans stoutly insist that everything is good and funding is ample. My personal view is that the truth lies somewhere in the equivocal middle...

     

    Some people hold the opinion that, for instance, Lynas will not have to tender any more of the $50m (due in $10m lumps linked to ore shipments from WA to the LAMP) until 2013 (after the initial $10m, that is). This $40m becomes critical when reviewing the delays, timeline, and cash burn. My idea is that Lynas will be smart and frugal with this, shipping only what they require to accomplish the initial qualification run, so I would say that it is possible that there will be no additional $10 for Q3, but probably one for Q4 and Q1 2013...

     

    A more cautious approach to due diligence would have the potential investor positing the good chance that there WOULD be the necessity of posting the $10m in Q3, however.
    14 May 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    Hi Trip or anyone else,

     

    Could I get a quick and dirty on the differences of Great Western, Lynas, and Molycorp?

     

    Lynas - 1.7B shares outstanding $1.7B cap
    Molycorp 96m shares $2.4B cap -- (I imagine they did a reverse split at some point)
    GWM - 426m shares $177M cap

     

    I appreciate just the rough general ideas here, so I can get an idea of what to start looking for as I go through their reports and study the different elements and potential production rates and timing.

     

    Thanks!
    12 May 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    My last comment above is my "quick and dirty". Hope it helps.
    12 May 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    It does help Chi, thank you.

     

    I had always looked at it that Moly was already producing but still running into trouble with their Phoenix plant. Lynas should be already producing but just waiting on the politicking to end and license be granted and that GW has the land and proven reserves but does not have the equipment/drills and manufacturing process lined up.

     

    I was trying to make sense of the market caps and it appears they are being priced primarily based on how close they are to production, rather than on having more valuable/promising deposits/reserves/land... etc.

     

    Should I conclude the market expects GW to be ~two years out from production (financing may come into play again before production) and that Lynas and Moly should be in the throws of production any time now, but because things have progressed more slowly than anticipated (doubt creeps in/irrationality creeps in) we are seeing very attractive pricing given how close they are to production?

     

    I have noticed a common theme that regardless of the industry companies trade at their lowest just before turning the corner or hitting their inflection point.

     

    Again, thanks.
    12 May 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz-- TB is one of the most impartial bloggers, I have found to date. The rest (including me) are partial to their paticular choices.
    I am partial to the GW story and I do not think their story is a "joke". I assume TB doesn't either since he is long. I think some people do not understand their business model and persist in looking at them from a junior miners perspective and that is not what they are going to be. The big money is in the downstream processing which they already have in LCM. They will have assurity of supply for their customers. They already have 2 signed up (Aichi - a subsidiary of Toyota and Vacuumschmelze). The 43-101 will expand the reserves... the question is by how much. Yes, the company is slow and sometimes plays it too close to the vest.
    Your other choices have their own problems. Do your own research and careful who you listen to. They are sometimes biased or not as unbiased as they seem.
    14 May 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its true, I try to be even-handed here. The idea is that the blog provides information and a forum for the exchange of views (and not just my view). Because many of us have had a long running discussion stretching back a year or more, many of the points of debate are very finely drawn.

     

    Although we now spend a lot of time focused on the 3 highest profile companies (Lynas, MCP, and GWM), entries are welcome pertaining to the whole Rare Earth and Strategic Minerals sector.
    14 May 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Aqwert. I have noticed that about TB as well. He has been extremely patient and generous with his time with me as I have been trying to learn and get my head wrapped around the tangled web of rare earth's investments in modern economic conditions and emerging nations as well as PM's and the effects macro-economics have on those.

     

    Still a lot to learn and I will take whatever people have to share, bias, unbiased, truth, facts, and opinions.

     

    Thanks again.
    14 May 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    if not anything else, the REE sector has certainly provided all the drama and twists and turns that one could hope for and then some. "Sure bets" have stumbled and the jury is still out on who the winners and losers will be--which is what makes it so exciting.
    One thing that will play a large part is Financing. No money and all you got is a pile of rocks....
    14 May 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/J4tJBz

     

    Lynas news. The stock was up over 6% down under last night, but has not shown the usual follow-on pattern in the American markets this morning (getting tossed out with the Eurozone angst bathwater, imo).

     

    This new and aggressive direction for Lynas' pr efforts is, I think, a calculated move meant to open up the impasse in Malaysia's bureaucracies. I think it will work, for the timing along with the international Rare Earth Symposium last week could bring pressure to bear.

     

    If, as I now believe, the pinks and ADR's here are missing the boat which launched last night in Sydney on the ASX, today might be a good day to add...
    14 May 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    MCP issuing loads more senior notes to pay for Neo...
    14 May 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » quote: Molycorp (MCP) plans to raise up to $650M of senior secured notes, which it will use to help finance its $1.3B takeover of Neo Material Technologies (NEMFF.PK).
    14 May 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    that's why the MCPpA has dropped recently.
    14 May 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KpWPM9

     

    Malaysia's academics are getting involved.
    15 May 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://reut.rs/IUOjAR

     

    S&P rates MCP's new notes a "B", says that this means they believe the company will successfully complete the purchase of Neo and will continue to receive high prices for its rare earth products.
    15 May 2012, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Quote: "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that demand and pricing for rare earth elements will remain high enough to allow the company to complete the build out of its mine and that it will complete the Neo Material acquisition with proceeds from the offering and existing cash resources."
    15 May 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/L379oo

     

    Malay Industry Minister is still on our side (pretty consistently there, too), for what that is worth. Of course, in this case his position is that of the guy who sold Lynas on the idea of setting up shop in Malaysia in the first place...

     

    Still, maybe his position will stiffen some spines elsewhere.
    15 May 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/Je23LR

     

    Pele Mountain (GOLDF.PK) is a junior I trade and slowly accumulate. I have been trading it as a Buy at $.10 or less, and selling at $.14+.
    15 May 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here's Pele Mountain's approach to the rare earths market.
    http://bit.ly/KuooT8
    15 May 2012, 10:06 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    TB, what is your current feeling about UAMY after their Q1 earnings announcement ? You previously had a buy target below $3.13 if I recall.
    15 May 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi DM, good question.

     

    Last Friday they fell through that point, and I have been watching to see if they stabilize. I believe they are a Buy at current prices in the $2.90's...

     

    BUT I am seeing some massive sector rotation affecting the REE and Strategic Minerals sectors (most stocks have been hammered this week), so I will be examining things more thoroughly to try to catch up with events tomorrow.
    15 May 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » DM: And yes, I had a buy on at $3.12 for a while, anticipating this correction, but as often happens events overtook my working estimate.
    15 May 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Update: UAMY is on the big exchange now:

     

    http://yhoo.it/JP7hKz
    16 May 2012, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Wow, what's causing the sell off in the rare earths?
    15 May 2012, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Massive sector rotation out of commodities, particularly strategic minerals, triggered by macro-economic events centered primarily on Europe and China. Europe appears to be sliding rapidly into a new recession, while China is working hard to engineer a soft landing for their economy (which implies of course that they will NOT be buying massive quantities of raw materials to further fuel the gigantic stimulus program they embarked upon in 2008 and particularly 2009).

     

    Xperts and analists have been promising that China would support the commodity supplying economies during this "slowdown", but now the prospects are that they will not. This undercuts national economies like those of Canada, Australia, Brazil, and much of South America and Africa. Combined with the sluggish (essentially backsliding) "recovery" in the US - the ongoing Eurozone meltdown - reactionary politics and the reversal of longstanding policy in the EU - and the normal laundry list of trouble spots like the Middle East (Iran/Israel), North Korea, etc - the prospects are daunting. An element of disappointment on a cultural scale is permeating the world markets as well, as the world's leaders stand revealed as a gaggle of ineffectuals.

     

    The question then becomes, whence the sector rotation?

     

    Today we should start to hear where the money is flowing. The US$ appears to be an initial beneficiary (the ancient myth of safe harbor), and the near certainty of further Euro depreciation (strong QE/money printing) will accelerate this move until America's keynesian leadership moves to join the race to the bottom. China will be forced to react, and I think it will act quickly and decisively when it does, and reset its dollar peg to maintain its essential export markets. The timescale for these events is uncertain, but this is the direction I see them taking.

     

    Commodities will abide, of course. Eventually the fiat collapse will make them more valuable than ever before, though the pump fake mounted by the friends of fiat which takes place up front will be (and is) fierce.

     

    As for this current market correction, I believe it will be shallow and transitory (we may see the bottom soon). I have repeatedly mentioned my opinion that we are going to see a low 1300 print in the S&P (1310-1320 has been my working theory) during this correction, barring some major geopolitical event (Iran/Israel, China, oil, etc). We have not met those numbers yet, though we are getting close.

     

    I believe we are near a buying bottom, and may well be AT a buying bottom in our sector, given that it has experienced a greater drop in share prices than other sectors.
    16 May 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KlW7vu

     

    Explanation of recent events with Lynas share price. MS has been selling immense quantities. Note the last few trades listed...
    16 May 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas continues to free-fall. Feels bottomless. Those long Lynas really NEED to review the link above to the recap of MS sales of Lynas occurring on the ASX...

     

    Last time they did this they went from 10% of Lynas to about 7%, then back to 10% (but at a much lower share cost, ie, they spun off profits and ended up with just as many shares as at the beginning of the trading. This COULD happen again, and the background situation (just like last time) in the macro economy and the Malaysian political scene is ripe for this sort of maneuver.

     

    I have not had time to thoroughly study this long list of trades, but it is my working theory right now that they are either engaged on a similar project, or may well end up increasing their holdings above the 10% level (perhaps far above 10%) given their ability to generate profits from successfully shorting the stock.

     

    IF (as some believe) the Malay bureaucracy plans to hold up the appeal decision and the TOL until after the PSC submits its report June 19...

     

    We have a scary month ahead of us, full of opportunity for manipulation by whales.
    16 May 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1922) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks TB for that heads up on MS activity.
    16 May 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Yes, thank you for your very valuable insights above!!
    16 May 2012, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome, MJ.

     

    I am continuing to add on the down slope, Lynas, GWM, TAS, IAALF, UAMY. Trading blocs are full for GOLDF, QREDF, and USMN.

     

    Pirate movie theme songs are flowing through my head...
    16 May 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Ktgvyy

     

    American politics. He's right, when even the game consoles start to build scenarios around rare earths, the sector is going mainstream FAST.
    16 May 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, is everyone enjoying the REE/Strategic Mineral sector's inauguaral, very own, customized, sector-specific flash crash?

     

    We should feel honored. Other, larger sectors must wait while slow human brains by the millions puzzle over their decisions, while we benefit from the attention of HFTs, whale manipulators, and quantmonkies by the score.

     

    Oh, I suspect those other sectors will get their turn in the barrel soon. After all, with retail and institutional investments drained out of the equity markets like money down a Maddoff ponzi scheme, what do the computers have left to do except butcher the few remaining hardy souls while they spar lazily with one another?
    16 May 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    Arggg...
    16 May 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    HFT will literally bankrupt many of their own kind...example is JPM's latest. Hedge funds smelled blood and is probably still making them bleed to unwind the trades.
    They don't have the little guy, so they will eventually feed on each other.
    The only reason we haven't already had another flash crash is they have probably been warned that if it happens they get HFT closed down period.
    16 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    On a more important note, I see MCP and the MCPpA trading near lows. Any thoughts of when to buy? especially the preferred.
    16 May 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was buying last time the MCP-PA dipped below $60, so I am doing so again.

     

    I have 2 trading blocs of common and no desire to add to them.
    16 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    TB, you know I am new at REE investing, but I have followed them for 4 years.

     

    In regards to the severe drop... I am wondering if they aren't getting shot with both barrels of a double barreled shotgun at the same time:
    1. Supply/Demand-with reduced demand for wind & solar due to the crisis and also politics.
    2. Election uncertainty on where alternative energy policy will go.
    3. Failure of two things regarding electric vehicles:
    a. Less demand or cars sold than projected
    b. Battery failures in the TSLA cars and also the GM plant explosion .

     

    4. Malaysia fiasco

     

    You could add sector rotation as shareholders dump shares for all the above. Makes me wonder if some of these guys make it at all, therefore maybe they even trade lower?
    I know u buy when there is blood in the streets, but there could be more blood letting yet. Not just in REE's either.
    16 May 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB and LT,
    Your right about getting hit hard. Precious metals have been also, I wonder if JPM is playing games to reduce their silver shorts, or if maybe something to do with Comex bidding on the London PM exchange or both?
    16 May 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, could be.

     

    The particular rare earths involved with Lynas (for instance) are the light elements and not as beholden to new alternative energy applications as some think. Lanthanum (La), Cerium (Ce) and Neodymium (Nd) will be their largest (volume) produciton items, and they are industrial materials with a huge and varied market. They are used in the manufacture of flourescent lights, LED's, Hybrid vehicles, auto catalysts, flat panel displays of all kinds, glass manufacturing, permanent magnets, disk drives, and fluid cracking catalysts for the petroleum and chemical industries. Certainly the anticipated extension of their markets into areas like EVs, wind power and solar power presents hope of growing markets in the future, but the truth is that their existing markets are rapidly growing already even in the event that those new markets go away. Also, the political sitrep is less dire than some might think. The plans for wind power have not yet been curtailed, and on the contrary there are clear signs of support for these initiatives on both sides of the political spectrum. Germany's government recently increased their support for wind and solar. Its true that the world is looking at an extremely reacitonary political cycle, with a center right government likely to replace a leftwing administration in the US... But perhaps balancing things we see leftwing governments gaining power in France and Germany.

     

    Having said this, however, I do indeed see a powerful sector rotation occurring away from commodities of all kinds, including precious metals (though not so exaggerated as in the small rare earth and strategic minerals sector). This may indeed be related to the perception that demand will be falling (whether I agree with this analysis or not, when whales move, they have an effect whether they are moving in a logical manner or not).

     

    Hybrid sales are likely to do well as the year wears on, but I have always been in the group (as evidenced on the APC) that doubts the success of EVs. Hybrids, on the contrary, CAN make sense.

     

    The Malay fiasco obviously impacts Lynas, but of course has no negative effect on the rest of the sector.

     

    I do not doubt that there could yet be even cheaper prices, but the same fundamentals (politics aside) are present as were there a few weeks or months ago, but we are much closer to significant production now.

     

    I have never been one of those who thought that MCP was fairly priced at $79 last year (I carried an estimate of $38, and still do, for their much more complete story as it exists today). For Lynas I used to think they would be an easy winner first to market, but the year's delay has been costly in many ways.

     

    I agree about more blood for other sectors - this is just the test case we are looking at right now.
    16 May 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    Stilldazed...you can bet that JPM is going to unwind any trades with risk. They have no choice. But the real question is over what timeframe and which assets first?

     

    Example: the "London whale" was exposed almost a month ago. Everyone knew it was JPM. When this news was leaked, the big boyz had already placed their bets. They just needed the little guys to get on board to hit the home run...it worked like a dream. this would have been much worse, but the big boys are not going to chance being wiped out by the power of JPM's $2 trillion balance sheet.
    Now to your question of them unwinding silver, the sharks will annihilate them again if they get wind of which positions they are going to unwind. So I think they do it over time and across multiple sectors and then repeat the process to keep the sharks off balance. That is JPM's risk of this getting real nasty.

     

    Do you wonder why it took JPM a month to disclose it? I find it funny that they did it right in front of the shareholder meeting. You notice the vote came up on splitting the CEO/Chairman role and Dimon barely escaped getting bumped from Chairman. If the opposition had 2 more weeks, you can bet that role would have been split. I think all corps should split that role.

     

    I think PM's are & have been a prime candidate to short. I am not big enough to do it or I would have at $2000. I sold all my scrap physical gold and silver the week of the high...
    16 May 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have gone on record recently with the idea that gold could bottom between $1400 and $1500 (or lower in the event of a cataclysmic downspike, particularly one engineered with the connivance of the PM exchanges).

     

    Silver continues to skate near an actual physical shortage, but so long as the exchanges bail out HSBC and JPM (and their henchbanksters) it will be hard to make headway against the prevailing winds. The current downdraft will of course beat up silver...

     

    I see $24 as a potential bottom for silver. I notice it dipped into the $26's today, and has been trending down for some time.
    16 May 2012, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I bailed out of PM equities other than Sandstorm last year, including all miners. I have been hoping to re-enter during this period (as you know we have been anticipating this correction for some time). I have just begun due dilligence in this regard...
    16 May 2012, 05:54 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I am not very knowledgeable, but have found a good advisor in Avi Gilbert here on SA. He was predicting a large run up in PMs unless they dropped too far in consolidation, his ultimate low if the charts broke down was for between $23.50 and 22.50. He has been dealing with family health issues for about a month now and hasn't published in a while.
    16 May 2012, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would not question those numbers much. My $24 is just a best guess, and silver is SOOO manipulated anyway.

     

    The best hope to end the manipulation is after new elections and the replacement of regulators in key positions overseeing these exchanges, markets, and banks.
    16 May 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the thoughtful and honest answers.
    16 May 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/KhKs0v

     

    Recap of the gold sitrep. Note the events in India, which were very dramatic at the time.
    17 May 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Ta da! (Hmmm, I really do need to find a bit of theme music - "Flight of the Turtles" or "Symphony for Catfish" or something, but anyway...)

     

    The turtle is back!

     

    Blood in the gutters, screaming natives fleeing the market place, the thunder of collapsing dreams echoing down the corridors of the powerful...

     

    Unleash the turtle, er Kraaken!
    17 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    I liked the puppy, but I am delighted to see the turtle back.
    17 May 2012, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. Bad times are back...

     

    And so is the turtle.
    17 May 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    I read this posting over at Hot Copper regarding Lynas and the TOL. May still be heresay from a follower but the conclusion is interesting.

     

    **********************...
    http://bit.ly/J4dXTS
    All,

     

    I had a detailed conversation with Alistair Reid from Lynas yesterday.

     

    Some important points as noted during the discussion -

     

    1 - The PSC is due to meet with the minister on Monday 21st May. The final review report will be forwarded by the PSC to the minister for consideration and decision.

     

    2 - This is a critical step closer to the approval process and is in fact the last major hurdle before an announcement is made regarding the Tol.

     

    3 - I'm confident that a decision regarding the approval of the Tol may be made on Monday 21st or thereby soon after.

     

    Have faith :) The answer has always remained in the background, if one knows politics one would know that the Malaysian government has to come across as if a detailed engagement process has taken place and that all angles have been covered for any possible future objections.

     

    Must I remind you that Lynas was in fact "invited" by the Malaysian Government to do business, this alone should reassure you.

     

    Lastly, I reiterate that the minister’s decision is "final"
    **********************...

     

    I hope the poster is right, though it would seem too logical for finally resolving the TOL issue. One can always hope that the end is here. Today looks like Lynas is off to a brutal start on ASX. I would hope that it is some capitulation before the weekend, but we've had multiple days lately with Lynas that seem to explain the trading activity with the same hope that tomorrow is the start of "The Rally.".
    17 May 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am skeptical. The PSC doesn't release their report (or at least I should say is not "scheduled" to do so) until June 19. Some are saying that the TOL won't be issued until after that happens...

     

    Note the careful wording about the report being "forwarded"...

     

    Too much attention on the meeting, no mention of WHEN that report is scheduled.

     

    I hope he's right and this is the trigger to break loose the ruling on the appeal and the TOL, but the pace of Malaysian bureaucracy is atrocious and untrustworthy.

     

    As for the sector rotation out of commodities which continues to pour down upon us, its not really linked to whatever the Malays may do or not do... Look at Alkane, look at the whole sector...

     

    Look at Europe. The macro terror is palpable. Our little corner of the market is taking the hit now, but we are not the last...

     

    At some point the rotation will move on, and leave the major equity indexes echoing and empty. Even now, they are largely populated with quantmonkies and hft computers.

     

    I had expected a lot more from the Europeans this week. Their situation is not going to fix itself, but their leadership is looking weak and lost.

     

    Tomorrow will give us a hint as to where next week will lead. Look for Lynas to equal or beat its 52 week lows...
    17 May 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    TB, the last half of your post is very true. I want to expand on it a bit with a few key points on the Macro issues that are never/rarely mentioned. It circles back to REE's at the end.

     

    1. What happens to the $2.5 trillion that US companies have stashed overseas to avoid taxes if the Euro were to hit parity with the dollar?

     

    2. Commodities: I have as much experience with them as stocks. Most people do not understand how close the supply/demand really is.
    Corn, Wheat, Soybeans only has less than a 10% surplus. This means that we consume 90% of each years production...what if we had a nationwide drought?
    The prices are high now because they can charge 3rd world countries exorbitant prices and are making the developed world pay the same price..not much to do with true supply/demand. Tyson chicken CEO was on CNBC yesterday and let that same comment slip, that high chicken prices were due to what they could charge overseas. Not demand here in the USA. Bad mistake on his part.

     

    Oil is the same way. We are at or past peak production. But we have seen prices from $70-150 in the past few years...I look for them to drop further, if for no other reason to help salvage the global economy.

     

    Other commodities such as copper, iron, etc...have been fueled by China & 3rd world countries build up. IMO, that is nearing an end. China alone has pushed prices to unattainable levels. Food grains is the same way. This trend has reversed and will probably get worse.

     

    My point is that it only takes 2-3% extra demand/consumption/ or usage to send prices skyrocketing. It works in reverse when demand drops and supply is rising....any/all commodities can really get cheap. This has already hit Australia, the $A is at dollar parity now. Brazil is probably next. It could be very difficult for many countries to stay out of recession or even worse-depression. I am a firm believer that the euro gets closer to dollar parity too.
    CAT finally admitted yesterday that sales were softening-Duh, who didn't know that with the slowdown in China?
    Watch them cry now or in '13 for a huge road project stimulus in the USA to help make it up.

     

    REE's are going thru a very tough "consolidation" phase now with companies trying to ramp up production to meet demand that is coming in the next few years. Prices may fluctuate, but demand and volume will hide many sins....but I don't expect many pure REE miners to make it. It will probably come down to China and maybe 2-3 more. I think the US gov't sees to it that MCP makes it, but the stock price could see single digits before turning around if they keep needing more financing. China has way too much influence on the rest of the world.
    I found it interesting yesterday on the AXPW APC that there was a shortage of lead...what the heck is that about? We know the lead reserves are there, but where is demand coming from? and have miners cut back on mining it?
    What will happen to the small REE miners if/when the big boys turn to REE's to help offset revenue losses?

     

    I am bearish on all commodities across the board. I think the global changes in place now negatively affects them for maybe several years to come.
    18 May 2012, 04:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7946) | Send Message
     
    LT I do not know this to be the issue but after the Chernoble incident lead was in very short supply and the price went sky high. Possibly the Japanese have been purchasing lead for the day they can bury some reactors. They have 3 of them to deal with not just one so expect lead to really be in short supply for some time to come if that is the issue.

     

    I suspect they may be pre-buying for that event.
    18 May 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Most lead is currently being mined as a byproduct for silver (or other metals). With silver prices manipulated like crazy over the past 2 years (and before, but lets focus a little closer to today), could this be damping down production - with a side effect of lead production tailing down as well?

     

    Just speculating. Pb production expert I am not.

     

    Lead recovery programs (unlike many industrial metals, like rare earth magnets, lead is highly recoverable and is usually used many times) would be another place to look for some sort of disruption. Have new environmental rules been installed somewhere (like China, for instance) that have resulted in recycling efforts getting cut back due to the cost of compliance? Are new environmental rules for mines and processors curtailing production?

     

    I suspect here lies our answer.
    18 May 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7946) | Send Message
     
    If that is it then when the Japanese start purchasing to bury reactors the price will get beyond ridiculous.

     

    Dont forget homeland security just ordered 450 million rounds of 40 cal too. /sarc
    18 May 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lead will start coming out of the junkyards and recycling centers like mad if prices go up much. I think there is a considerable amount of elasticity in supply - AFTER the price makes it attractive.
    18 May 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My thoughts:

     

    1. The total sum of fled capital from the US is closer to $16trillion (and I suspect the $2.5trillion you mention as a cash number on corporate balance sheets is low, since at least some of those corporations are outright lying about the true amounts). I believe the true figures for this cash also does not include the dollar carry trade fostered by the Fed's zirp habit.

     

    This problem cannot be addressed with a brief tax amnesty, but rather a sweeping and thorough overhaul of our method of Federal taxation. There is some prospect that this may happen after next November's elections, though the best hopes were dashed as a result of the Republicans nominating the only candidate who was really NOT proposing this sort of overhaul.

     

    What is less apparent is the fact that stirrings in the House and Senate races may be preparing the way for just such an early legislative battle in 2013.

     

    Too late by far to help the current poor situation, of course, but the future is not without hope.

     

    2. We have discussed commodity realities at great length in the rare earth and strategic mineral sector. Ag commodities are different from base metals, for instance, in that the shelf life is much shorter and the potential supply much more flexible (easier and quicker to choose to plant more corn than to discover and exploit a new world class mine). It does indeed have to cope with the vagaries of weather, of course... Globalization of commodity prices has been an ideological holy grail for BOTH the dominant parties in the US for a very long time, and is prone to the same fallacies as all other forms of globalization, ie, the glaring fiction that the presence of antithetical ideological enemy states masquerading as smiling capitalist corporations does not exist, plus the reality that not everyone on the planet is equally willing to allow their populations to experience the effects of those geopolitial agendas.

     

    As a Libertarian I consider these issues to be matters of National Defense.

     

    As a general observation, I see nothing wrong with a corporation charging what the market will bear, though I have to divorce THIS situation (capitalism at work) from the effects of globalization (briefly outlined above) to do so. Often we see unintended effects stemming from well-meaning efforts by government or even our national culture. As measures have been installed to beat down the beef industry and drive up those prices, consumers have been herded toward consuming more chicken and less beef. Prices for chicken have also gone up as a result. Supply and demand pressures. The fact that a newly flush China is now importing a LOT more foodstuffs is also unsurprising, since the last 2 decades of the West's project to concentrate all manufacturing there have succeeded. Anyone who did not think that the introduction of such a huge and centrally controlled (and ideologically driven) customer in the markets would have devastating consequences was an idiot (and yes, I would apply this to the West's collective leadership for the last 2 decades with hardly an exception).

     

    Peak production is a zero sum exercise. According to the experts we have been at "peak production" every year since the early 70's, and they have been wrong in that prediction eary year. The truth is that the calculation of fossil energy reserves has long been a political decision rather than a scientific analysis. However I agree that we will see oil kept below or just around $100/bbl so long as the lid can be kept on situations like Iran. That is the wild card in the oil patch, and it is far from solved. But the oil producers really can't solve America's energy problems, which are largely self-inflicted wounds. Capping prices will just slow down the bleeding.

     

    You are correct about base metals and China. I have written extensively on this subject here and on the QC over the years. I believe you meant to say "unsustainable" instead of "unattainable"... The commodity producing nations are in for some lean years until they adjust to a non-boom environment.

     

    I disagree about food grains, but that's really off-topic here.

     

    Commodities (particularly those with large supplies on hand being bought and sold vs those not yet produced being speculated upon) can indeed experience increased demand (or demand fall-off) which can whipsaw prices. Nothing new about that, in fact, its an enduring reality. As always, however, these spikes tend to be brief (that's why they are spikes rather than broad shifts in supply and demand, which takes loads of time and lots of room for maneuvering). But commodities also represent real assets which, in a world of rapidly degrading fiat currencies (Euro sitrep case in point and the recent history of the US$) are much more likely to hold their value despite any brief spike downward in prices/demand. This becomes even more apparent as time goes on and the fiat currencies are loaded down with more and larger debt. This is the really unsustainable situation we are facing, that prices for commodities cannot be manipulated by governments beyond a very limited range of elasticity - and we are beyond that point already, imo. When that rubber band rebounds, look for really nasty inflation (and huge increases in commodity prices, of course, probably resulting in a higher "norm" but also some fierce, but brief, spikes).

     

    QE and infrastructure investment (such as that done in China, Japan, Europe, etc, etc) will indeed occur in the US as well. Totally agree. It will happen. As the Europeans embark on an orgy of euro-printing, the US will follow (though the lag will see a much "stronger" dollar and wreck our exports until we start chasing that particular rabbit). China will act more forcefully and quickly than we do, in my opinion, and reset their dollar peg to match the Euro (the EU is their #1 customer, after all, and a much cheaper Euro will endanger their export markets). After China has tamped down their long running domestic stimulus program (they have spent roughly 6 times as much on stimulating their own economy over the last 4 years than we have, relative to the size of their economy), they will quickly return to relying on strong exports to keep the reduced activity level alive. They will have no choice but to lower the value of the yuan, and probably quite a bit.

     

    I have already selected the 3 winners from the larger western rare earth companies which I believe form the first tier: MCP, Lynas, and GWM. There is a much more speculative 2nd tier, however, with aspects to recommend each of the companies (either as potential buyout candidates or as smaller niche players). My favorites in that group are QRM, AVL, ALKEF, TAS and NOURF. Those who expect the rare earth sector to mirror the precious metal mining sector need to do more due diligence. Rare earth mining and processing is far more complex and is much more a matter of very difficult chemical processing and extraction, followed by very specialized metallurgy, than base or precious metal mining. Since rare earths often include radioactive minerals, they also present similar problems to those seen in the strategic mineral industry (Uranium for instance). China will probably cease to be an exporter of most rare earths in just a few years, however, and switch to becoming the primary buyer of ex-China production.

     

    I would have to look into the lead supply situation. I really never have focused on that particular story.

     

    Its important to remember that even today, there is virtually NO rare earth mining occurring other than in China. MCP has a small antique line up and running, and that is about it (as we see, the LAMP is still dead in the water as of today). So there ARE no small REE miners, just small REE juniors, mostly explorers, with only a few (other than GWM, LYC and MCP) within 5 or 6 years of producing anything. In this environment we can expect a period of consolidation, as the large companies accumulate mining projects to fit distinct needs in their offerings to customers. There are 17 separate elements on the rare earth list, and each deposit is unique. As revenues finally begin to flow downstream of production, we can expect these companies to go shopping among the small fry... MCP has already done some of this, in their own odd way, with NEO (though of course this is not a miner but a source of proprietory technology and an entre to Chinese magnet making and markets). Those puzzled by MCP's move should remember the idea that, in a few years, China will go from the sole source of the world's REE supply to by far the largest consumer.

     

    I believe that commodities will go through a rapid correction (mostly already done for the rare earth and strategic mineral stocks, though still coming for base metals, while precious metals are about midway of their correction). I won't try to addres ag, oil, etc here, its a huge topic.

     

    Rare earths remain a unique, odd, sector dominated by news and their underlying geopolitical issues. This sector rotation has about run its course, and now we see whether this was a quick cycle attack (such as has occurred in the past) by some whales well aware they can whipsaw such a small and young sector with ease, OR...

     

    If we will need months to see meaningful recovery.

     

    LT, I would caution you to avoid too broad a brush in your investment thinking about "commodities". You will miss many opportunities that way.
    18 May 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Wachtel on gold.

     

    I have to agree with his analysis in this case.
    18 May 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    On "peak oil".

     

    Note that the transformation of the mining world over the past decade is similar. No longer can the commodity consumers count on the miners to work for pennies an hour - in mines lacking any sort of safety standards - and in conditions where environmental protection is non-existant. Those days are gone, and so are the super low costs of production that went with them.
    18 May 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7946) | Send Message
     
    The labor cost creates a certain level of support for the price of the commodity. Bullish I say, bullish!!!
    18 May 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The support can be spiked temporarily, but the tendency will be to see the prices start to climb back above a profitable production level fairly quickly. Fiat currencies are so weak they cannot hold gains for long.
    18 May 2012, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GWG - Money wasn't released after all. Escrow agent made an error, odd, although I am not reading too much into it.

     

    http://on.mktw.net/JcwVLw
    18 May 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, that guy just might have dodged a major lawsuit if the NI report falls short...

     

    We can expect this to impact the share price short term, of course, though how much in this environment is hard to estimate.

     

    The final report is expected by the end of this month, so less than 2 weeks remain in any event.
    18 May 2012, 11:16 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    So far there has been no reaction in the SP, and I think it is a non-event. It does show though that they will get the money having already met the low 20k benchmark. So maybe that is why there has been no reaction.

     

    ps. Facebook is open and down and the market at the moment is trading with it. Sad but true.
    18 May 2012, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, Ongkili has kicked the ball down the gutter...

     

    Now he is instructing the AELB to respond to the appeal made to him, by May 31...

     

    So the Hot Copper guy got it off kilter.

     

    Anyone want to bet that the AELB discovers some method of CYA involving another delay?

     

    The next Malay bureaucracy date of note is when the PSC is scheduled to issue their report (containing, in typical circular and mutal CYA action, the input from the Science Minister AND the AELB) on June 19...

     

    Unless they give Ongkili more time to consult with some other layer of Malay bureaucracy.

     

    Now seeing mention of the following phrase when mention of the LAMP TOL occurs: "... or July..."

     

    Whenever.

     

    LOL, in the long running flamewar betwixt supporters of the various leading rare earth entrants in the race, we have lacked a truly telling rejoinder, but now I think we have found it:

     

    "...but at least they aren't in Malaysia".

     

    Imagine the endless applications for this new, universally acknowledged phrase. No matter how clueless one is entering into a conversation involving rare earth processing minutia, just tack on:

     

    "...but a least they aren't in Malaysia".

     

    This one freshly unearthed power phrase could transform the fortunes of junior explorers far and wide. No matter how dismal their prospects, or how little cash they have left in the bank...

     

    "...at least they aren't in Malaysia".

     

    Heck. This could become part of the micetype in the standard bankability writeup.
    18 May 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    In fairness to the Hot Copper guy, he was "quoting" Alistair Reid of Lynas, which I guess is even more disturbing since Lynas execs are grasping at straws too.

     

    Too bad we can't monitor Ongkili's trade account. He's probably making money off shorting the stock and then he'll switch positions right before he dismisses the final claims against issuing the TOL /grrr
    19 May 2012, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'd have to see confirmation from Reid to totally buy "quotes", but yes, that would be disturbing if Lynas was starting to either believe such stories, or seeking to mislead their shareholders. I believe if I had Mr. Reid sitting with me he would insist he had been misquoted...
    19 May 2012, 06:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm

     

    Australia will sign a free trade agreement [FTA] with Malaysia on Tuesday. Under the deal, more than 97 percent of tariffs on Australian goods sold in Malaysia will be eliminated. In return Australia has agreed to accelerate the removal of tariffs for goods from Malaysia, the Australian newspaper reported.
    20 May 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Some odd new REE indexes have been created:

     

    http://bit.ly/Magwpk

     

    The weightings for the various companies are very odd, and I suspect may even be erroneous as quoted in this article. This might be worth more study later...
    21 May 2012, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KFgl7q

     

    As others have mentioned, the new Australian/Malay free trade agreement process is about to crankup again. In theory the agreement was hammered out back in 2009, but has been just lying about pending some signatures.... The author notes how fortuitous it is that these high level meetings will include the matter of the LAMP...

     

    ROTFL.

     

    On the contrary, its apparent that the Malay politicos are far from done with using their favorite chew toy (Lynas) as a bargaining chip with their clueless Australian couterparts!

     

    So, how long will these negotiations go on, pre-signature, and what juicy last minute concession will the wily Malaysians extract from the down-under bignoses?

     

    One to watch, and add to the long list. At least this signing is theoretically happening tomorrow (and whenever did anything get delayed in dealing with the Malaysians?).
    21 May 2012, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KFgGqD

     

    More on the FTA.
    21 May 2012, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MCP is up about 10%, apparently there is some new video out about Phoenix which has some investors excited about the construction...

     

    I have little time today, so no link, sorry...
    21 May 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » GWG.V is halted today, Canada took a day off, but presumably everything is still pending the long-awaited Ni-43-101...

     

    GWMGF drifted up with the markets today, but nothing significant...

     

    Lynas did the same, a balloon pulled by every stray breeze at this point...
    21 May 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LcGYMD

     

    Decision on Appeal Against Temporary License For Lynas In Two Weeks - Ongkili

     

    KUALA LUMPUR, May 22 (Bernama) - Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Datuk Seri Dr. Maximus Ongkili said a decision on the appeal by three individuals against Lynas Advanced Materials Plant's temporary operating license (TOL) would be made in two weeks time.

     

    Ongkili said he went through the 14 submissions raised as the basis of their appeal, but needed more time to consult related experts and authorities, before making a decision.

     

    "There are still some issues that I have to look into and I expect to settle everything in two weeks time," he told reporters after launching the National Bioethics Council, here Tuesday.

     

    Still some issues ? I'd guess he's already made a decision, but he's trying to gauge if more jungle rats will come running out of the palm trees knowing that a deadline is near. If nothing appears, then he'll hold up a wetted finger to see which way the wind is blowing and make a decision.
    22 May 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7946) | Send Message
     
    Wetted finger, you sure thats what that is.
    22 May 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Jup7Gr
    22 May 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (902) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/JCwe9a

     

    The PSC's report could be debated in the Malaysian parliament as late as June 19th according to reports in the media.
    23 May 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correct. The release of the report is scheduled for June 19 (but of course there could be delays since its content will be supported by documentation from upstream sources like Ongkili and the AELB, and we know that they won't be reporting until the end of May or first week in June ASSUMING they don't come up with more delays, etc).

     

    Hope has sprung eternal that various news events over the past year would mark some end to this passion play, but the reality has been that all such speculation has been in error. At each and every opportunity disappointment has awaited the Lynas investor.

     

    At this point is it reasonable to assume that the PSC report (and just for giggles let's entertain the fantasy that it WON'T be delayed for some reason) does indeed get released to the world come June 19... What are the chances that its political opponents will engage it in lengthy debate in parliament at that point? 100%?

     

    So, IF the TOL is hanging upon this final factor, what are the chances it will be granted June 19? 0% would be my estimate.

     

    I mentioned elsewhere upstream in these blogs that we are now seeing knowledgeable commentary which has recently added "...or July..." to the speculation as to when, finally, Lynas will actually see the TOL. For planning purposes, I believe that late July is now the best estimate.

     

    This of course pushes the cash burn discussion from the prospect of initial revenues flowing from LAMP production from late February 2013 to sometime in early April 2013, imo. Should the eventual LAMP TOL announcement create a notable pop in share price, we will all need to pay close attention to the cashburn prospects from that point...

     

    And that's assuming that Malaysian parliamentary procedures can move that fast.
    23 May 2012, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    Ugg!
    23 May 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pithy and deep comment, as always, FPA.

     

    But I REALLY hoped someone would point out a huge flaw in my reasoning...

     

    RIght now I am thinking to add at least 1 to 2 years to the Lynas horizon (we are already deep into what I once thought would be year 1 of Lynas production and revenues) - slow down the timeline and milestone charting - and view the issue of the TOL and first LAMP production (complete) as milestones which might be able to boost share price.

     

    Conservatively, the first (TOL) seems pretty likely, while the 2nd (LAMP production) could well run into new plant teething problems playing out against low cash to fund operations.

     

    It would be premature for NC to start talking about the next round of funding before the TOL is issued, or perhaps even before they see if they can accelerate their production startup routine, but no later than early Q4 it MUST be addressed if they cannot generate revenue sufficient to fund operations.
    23 May 2012, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5859) | Send Message
     
    I think Chi was thinking they might need some bridge funding, but not necessarily a full offering. Of course, it all depends on the TOP approval, and it's timing. I am currently looking to add another tranche at .75, but I am evaluating daily. If we get a major drop in the markets, I will be bargain hunting for high income stocks.
    23 May 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My thinking has been that:

     

    TOL + Early May + Production acceleration = Possibility of no more funding issues

     

    Whereas:

     

    TOL + June + Production on schedule = Almost certain need for bridge funding

     

    Whereas:

     

    TOL + July-August + Likely production delays = Need for another major funding episode ($100m+).

     

    I am currently thinking that the third option is the most likely... And that they will probably NOT dilute to raise money, but go back to the well in Japan or NY.

     

    NC is financially astute, and will NOT dillydally laying on new funding prior to the point where a pinch point occurs. To me this means that he will pull the trigger (barring some dramatic improvement in his stated timeline) in Q4.

     

    With all the uncertainty, a line of credit such as the one canceled when they did the NY funding would make sense.
    23 May 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, LYSCF just matched its 52 week low of $.84, and we are still at least 2 weeks (more like 6, imo) before they will get the TOL and can start trying to make something in the LAMP. When will we see the bottom? Midway between now and "then"? That would be either 1 week from now or 3 weeks, depending on whose WAG one believes.

     

    At current rates of decay, I compute that would have the stock back around $.72 in 1 week, or about $.48 in 3 weeks. And yes, these projections are really ridiculous, as is the situation Lynas finds itself mired in.

     

    Oh, and yes, it might well double when the TOL is issued, all the way back to the $.96 level. Wahoo.

     

    Lynas should seriously consider mothballing the LAMP after construction is complete, lay off the entire Malay workforce, and just sit out the inevitable round of legislative squabbling and multiple lawsuits which might drag on for years. It would probably be a good idea at the same time to mothball Mount Weld, lay off that workforce, and put the company on a strict capital expense diet while it waits for the Malaysians to make up their feeble collective minds.

     

    In the likely event that MCP and GWM will ultimately complete their processing facilities, Lynas may be able to earn some actual money by shipping concentrate to them.

     

    LOL, just kidding (...maybe, we'll see what the Malays do next).
    23 May 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1901) | Send Message
     
    From my small outside perspective the appeal seems dead to me, and the minister of science will reject it within the next two weeks, passing the TOL. My outside perspective on Lynas' recent action to combat the defamation as well as Curtis' recent strong statements regarding investment in Malaysia gives me the idea the ridiculousness will soon come to an end, as everyone has had enough by now (if they hadn't 6 months ago)

     

    The LAMP is a win for everyone, it will happen, apparently in the nik of time but it will happen soon.
    23 May 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have studying the PM sector (including miners, streamers, etfs, physical, etc) lately, as promised, with an eye of re-entering upon the arrival of the anticipated buying opp... I believe it has arrived, though perhaps not bottomed just yet, but CLOSE.

     

    The recent flood of redemptions at GLD is one of the signs I was looking for. Now we see what happens as GLD must sell gold...

     

    Will central bankers buy this gold?

     

    Now is the time to make ready and to watch, imo.
    23 May 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have been anticipating Lynas matching its 52 week lows, and it has done so with $.84 print for LYSCF, and an even lower $.82 for LYSDY. However, $.84 appears to offer support, and LYSCF bounced back to $.88 yesterday at the close. Last night on the ASX, LYC managed to match $.88 (although with the new strength of the US$, the .9725 exchange rate weakens this performance slightly). In both cases there appears to be a bottom in.

     

    IF (as some of us have been postulating) MS and Friends have been mounting a raid on Lynas (such as has been mounted in the past), this point might well be where they make their turn, close out short positions, and scoop up sufficient cheap shares to meet their goals. This is action which occurs primarily on the ASX, of course. 10% short for the LYC float is not unusual. MS and Friends have a huge chunk of Lynas stock, fluctuating between about 7 and 10% (see the recent pdf link under Announcements on the LYC listing on the ASX for full disclosure, MS has been VERY active over the past quarter, and presumably still is).

     

    Today and particularly tomorrow might be telling. For one thing, should the drop resume, that would indicate to me that MS and Friends believe the TOL will be delayed further, until after the PSC report is made. And they should know...
    24 May 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1922) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your latest thoughts, TB. I also found interesting the speculation that Lynas "circumstances could lead to a probable discussion" during the signing of Australia's MAFTA trade agreement with Malaysia: http://bit.ly/Lj2Yp1
    24 May 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, we looked at that too. The signing occurred Tuesday, but I have seen no details as to what was discussed. My own prediction was that the Malaysians extracted additional, last minute concessions from the Australians.

     

    It would appear that Ongkili's pledge to rule on the LAMP appeal by the end of May had timing linked to the FTA meetings as well.

     

    Pure speculation, really, but its obviously an active geopolitical situation with many live wires scattered about.

     

    Today's trading resumes the holding pattern we saw yesterday. If this persists through Friday, it could be a further sign that a bottom is in.
    24 May 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Frontier Rare Earths had a nice move on Friday ( up 16%) after announcing their plan to buy back up to 5% of their public float.

     

    http://bit.ly/LIOgea

     

    The company is still too far away and just represents speculation at this point, but Frontier seems to be Korea Inc.'s primary involvement in RE. I don't imagine that Samsung, LG, Hyundai and others will want to source RE or RE products from Japan, and they need an alternative to China supply if they want to control their future IP.
    27 May 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Lynas up over 17% - wow. No news? I hope it means something positive is coming. Hopefully tomorrow won't erase this gain.

     

    28 May 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We won't know for another 2 months, but I suspect that MS & Friends just covered their short positions...

     

    This is also the week when GWM should be issuing their NI43101...

     

    Also expecting news about MCP's purchase of NEO Tech...

     

    I do NOT expect particular news out of Europe, they are collectively frozen in the oncoming headlights of the French and Greek elections, although this gap will see a multitude of xperts and analists crowding before the camera to present their particular visions of charting frog guts and macroeconomic rune stones.
    28 May 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1922) | Send Message
     
    Jimp and TB,

     

    I watched the Australian action last night on Lynas with great interest. The only media alert I caught was a repeat of a 5/15/12 reference by a Lynas official as saying that the delays are having "a very adverse impact" but then the same article stated: "orders for rare earths placed with the Australian miner have been sold out for the next 10 years."
    http://bit.ly/MT3qQf
    AND...
    http://bit.ly/Ky8iqm

     

    I knew they had locked in substantial forward contracts, but do you understand this statement as accurate -- "sold out for the next 10 years?" If so I must have missed in earlier reports the extent of the contract lock - ins.
    Thanks,
    mj
    28 May 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4742) | Send Message
     
    It would appear that statement could more than offset the negatives if true.
    I do believe that statement and the short covering prompted the sudden reversal and rise in pps. It might be a buy if it retests the lows.
    Nice that they did the short covering on Memorial Day weekend when USA mkt.'s are closed....nothing like Wall St. innovation.
    28 May 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Mercy. With over a billion shares, didn't realize short covering could move the share price that much. Malaysia needs to move forward and put this disaster behind them.
    28 May 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We know that Lynas has a large percentage of the initial production from LAMP spoken for, starting with Sojitz and Seimens, plus 8 or 9 other agreements and contracts with fewer details... And I know that the Sojitz deal is long term (I believe 10 years is accurate). I did not think that they had contracteded 100% of production to these commitments, however (I was thinking it was more like 90%, but that was just a WAG).

     

    Also, the contracts are based upon market prices (not set prices) so the fortunes of the company are defnitely linked to what the ex-China prices do over that period. For this reason it would be risky to just take prices at any certain date and project them out for 10 years.

     

    Also, many of the articles I have seen confuse Phase 1 production with "full" production after Phase 2 is also completed.

     

    Finally, the LAMP as it is currently planned will be incapable of producing more than 3 or 4 of the 17+ elements even after their Duncan deposit with its heavier content is exploited. The outlying contracts are therefore NOT including these critical questions in the underlying thinking. Lynas will have to find a customer for these elements they cannot process, OR crank up a new project somewhere (hopefully NOT in Malaysia) where they can run these crucial elements.
    28 May 2012, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    TB, I agree with your assessment that it's more like 80 - 90% locked up. I believe NC wanted the last bit for unknown, future opportunities that might pop up. Can you imagine the deal & money that the last 15% could bring in if rare earth prices ever returned near there peak prices.

     

    I doubt it was a lack of foresight that the LAMP wasn't designed to incorporate more processing of other (heavy) rare earths. Probably just highlights the complex chemistries involved.. Also Lynas was
    kinda in a "no mans land" when the LAMP was conceived, so limited funding..
    28 May 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, Jimp. I am not being critical of LAMP's design parameters - just the potential ignorance of article authors and investors - which I feel obliged to keep as fully informed as possible.

     

    Lynas has had discussions with Rhodia (and presumably their new owners, Soljay) about a tolling agreement for running other elements. Rhodia has a mothballed operation in Europe which can run at least some of these elements. This is one option...

     

    But I believe the long term solution is to build LAMP2 designed to handle the heavies. Perhaps Malawi or Vietnam (some very interesting developments there involving Toyota and the local rare earths)?
    28 May 2012, 12:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Thorium reactors and GWM/MCP mentioned.

     

    Might even involve Lynas at some point, particularly if they shift emphasis to Duncan and the heavies.
    28 May 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7946) | Send Message
     
    Great article. I have been a thorium fan for a while.
    29 May 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Russell Grant leaving Great Western...

     

    Great Western Minerals' Grant resigns as director, SVP

     

    2012-05-28 10:16 PT - News Release

     

    Mr. Jim Engdahl reports

     

    GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP ANNOUNCES RUSSELL GRANT RESIGNATION

     

    Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. (GWMG) director and senior vice-president of business development Russell Grant has resigned.

     

    Mr. Grant has served as senior vice-president, business development and as a director since April, 2010, during which time he has been responsible for initiatives that included the establishment of GWMG's joint venture agreement with Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group Ltd. and commercial development opportunities.

     

    Mr. Grant stated: "It has been a distinct pleasure to work with GWMG over the past two years, participating in the transition of a company from being one with great potential to being one of the most fully integrated rare earth companies outside of China today. With the recent financing successfully in place and with the establishment of a professional delivery team, I feel certain that GWMG will prove to be a leader in the rare earth sector."

     

    Jim Engdahl, president and chief executive officer of GWMG, said, "We sincerely thank Russell Grant for the extensive rare earth industry experience he has added to our company over the past two years. His knowledge of the global rare earth sector has been of significant value to GWMG as we have developed our management group in a manner that enables us to be a global leader."
    28 May 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17495) | Send Message
     
    Yikes. That'll fire up the rumor mills with unfounded (regardless of ultimate accuracy) speculation.

     

    HardToLove
    28 May 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » From some angles this was the leading internal candidate to replace JE. I am assuming at this point that he lost out in that ambition, and decided to leave. If the attempt included a real battle on the board, he might have been forced to leave as a result.

     

    This would indicate a strong chance that they have found Jim's replacement, which might also be announced along with the NI43101.

     

    The Toronto exchange briefly paused trading in GWG today, immediately before this news was released.
    28 May 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (677) | Send Message
     
    I actually cannot recall a time that Lynas was up 17% in one day.
    28 May 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17495) | Send Message
     
    Did 2/1 gap up open make it? Close 1/31 $1.42, high 2/1 $1.68, +18.3%.

     

    HardToLove
    28 May 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17495) | Send Message
     
    Uh, that was in the U.S, maybe not in Aussieland.

     

    HardToLove
    28 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More signs on the ASX tonight that a short squeeze is on. LYC trading at A$1.115 right now, was as high as A$1.125 a few minutes ago. Volume is very high, over 16million shares very early on... We could well see 30-40million shares on the ASX today, perhaps much more.

     

    Those holding back may have missed their chance to acquire Lynas as a penny stock.

     

    Should the announcement be made of the TOL appeal being denied after ASX hours tonight, Lynas is likely to open at something like $1.12 in the morning and rapidly move toward $1.20 or more in the pinks and ADRs.

     

    I still expect the actual TOL to be delivered in June, close to the time when the PSC files their findings with the Malay Parliament.
    28 May 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://read.bi/JpXxnH

     

    More about Lynas who, unfortunately, IS in Malaysia...

     

    Ongkilli is consulting more experts, it would seem, and still intends to report by the end of the month, BUT, for those laboring under the idea that he has the authority to release the TOL (vs rule on the appeal), this article indicates that lies with the PSC.

     

    Ongkili is quoted in the article as saying that the PSC will present their report June 14 (I have seen the date of June 19 referenced elsewhere as well).

     

    So the jump in valuation for Lynas is quixotic as far as news is concerned...

     

    Though not so much if MS & Friends have been busy lately.
    28 May 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Adding GWMGF on the news and the dip (GWG is up solid today, oddly enough).

     

    Lynas is on track to match its ASX performance, could see a 20% pop today...

     

    MCP is up, appears to be getting pulled along in Lynas' wake...

     

    Picture is mixed in the secondary and tertiary REE stocks...

     

    Geopolitical sitrep with Syria and Iran (particularly Syria, today) is in flux and heating up, noteworthy that Israel is meeting with top Generals of the Red Army this week...

     

    So... Strategic mineral aspects are also in flux.

     

    Europe... LOL, Spain is finally coming clean with the situation in its larger autonomous regions (and their big regional banks, as well as the bonds used to finance the regional goverments) - Bankia seems to be next in line for bailout funds - otherwise the continent remains frozen as they hope and prey that somehow the results of the upcoming French elections and Greek re-elections solve... something.
    29 May 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, that's a wrap....

     

    LYSCF was up over 21% today, though we still have not heard the final word on the TOL appeal.

     

    Its quite possible that word will come this evening, or even after ASX closes on Wed. or Thursday.

     

    That will probably complete this part of the news cycle, leaving us with June 14 (or 19, depending on who you believe) for the PSC report to be "tabled" for the Malay parliament.
    29 May 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, with such a nice bump affecting many of my REE/Strat picks, I felt an update was in order for the trades I am working:

     

    ARAFF current trading bloc Buy, sell 90% @.35
    GWMGF current trading bloc Buy, take profits @.74
    GDLNF current trading bloc Buy, sell 90% @.48
    IAALF current trading bloc Watch (buy target .09), sell 80% @.14
    LYSCF current trading bloc Watch (buy target 1.03), sell 70% @1.76
    MCP-A current Buy, 12 month Hold, sell target for this bloc $92
    GOLDF current trading bloc Buy, sell 90% @.13
    QREDF current trading bloc Watch (buy target .13), sell 90% @.19
    SNDXD current Watch (buy target 6.67), long term hold
    SRSR current trading bloc Buy, Sell 80% @.03
    TAMO current trading bloc Watch (buy target .18), Sell 70% @.22
    TAS current trading bloc Buy, Sell 80% @2.45
    UAMY current Hold (buy target 3.12), sell 60% @4.14
    USMN current trading bloc Buy, Sell 90% @.09
    UURAF current trading bloc Watch (Buy target .30), Sell 90% @.41
    29 May 2012, 08:56 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1922) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks TB for generously sharing your trading bloc strategies on REEs.
    29 May 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KW6BQA

     

    The "other" Steen. This one is all about the thorium.

     

    In a recent article they mentioned Steen producing about 600 tonnes of thorium per year, enough to power South Africa for 100 years...

     

    Thorium floats to the surface (as do pebble bed reactors) every few years, but it certainly is interesting, anyway.
    30 May 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Obviously, the Malays failed to deliver the appeal decision yesterday (May 30 for them), so now it comes down to tonight (May 31). The short squeeze has ended, and we are seeing some of the gains ebb out as once again lack of faith in the Malaysian bureaucrats takes hold and the focus shifts back to the spineless leadership in Europe.

     

    By morning we should know something...

     

    Oddly, GWM is synchronized with Lynas, with the critical deadline for issuing their NI43101 coming due, as well as Q1 reporting, explanations for the departure of a SVP, the CEO recruitment, etc.

     

    The news cycle tomorrow could be outlandish.
    30 May 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » SHOCKING NEWS ALERT!

     

    Malaysian Science Minister has DELAYED issuing a finding on the LAMP TOL appeal, stating he "needs more time".

     

    http://bit.ly/L98Kuy

     

    ROTFL. Lynas shareholders are astounded at this turn of events, of course, since the Malaysian bureaucracies have NEVER before shown a tendency to miss deadlines or break promises before this...

     

    LOL.

     

    Anyhow, this at least demonstrates that even the mighty MS can miss a judgement call when it comes to shorting targets and Malay politicians. Now the chaos is complete.

     

    We can look forward to the next stop on the "Malaysian Brothel and Bureaucracy Tour" in 2 weeks, by which time Lynas will be scrambling around Tokyo and Wall Street looking for funidng backup for Q4 once again.

     

    In other news about the Rare Earth Sector, Great Western must issue its long-awaited NI43101 today or miss its promise date... but at least it is NOT in Malaysia.

     

    Conglin Yue, the cogy Chinese investor located in Australia, is making a move on another REE property: http://bit.ly/KAoSYx, and it may or may not be a takeover candidate in years to come, but at least it is NOT in Malaysia.

     

    NEO management has received near-100% approval for MCP's takeover of that company: http://bit.ly/L98Hiv , and it would appear that MCP might have paid a little too much for the purchase, but at least NEO is NOT in Malaysia.

     

    Finally, I must admit that I see buying opportunities springing up all over the ree/strat sector... And I am trading actively on many firms, with some success, but at least they are NOT in Malaysia!

     

    (Except for woeful Lynas, of course).
    31 May 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Minister's decision is made at a time when Malaysia's economy is being pumped in the media. I have to wonder about the timing of this deal in more ways than one.....
    http://bit.ly/KY5ap8
    http://bit.ly/JTYJRT
    31 May 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The first article has a good final wrapup. As for Malysian competetiveness...

     

    I am over it. They are on my list for future investments right beside China and Venezuela (and just above Iran, though not by much).
    31 May 2012, 12:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13451) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    New Concentrator is ready!
    31 May 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, March 18, 2014 http://seekingalpha.com/p/1n9hd
    Mar 18, 2014
  • SIlver. (FRMSF.PK) up 8.50%, (SLW) up 7.16%, (GPRLF.PK) up 11.83%. Also (PLG) up 6.19% for the platinum group.
    Nov 4, 2010
  • Conviction picks this week: (NVAX) and (NATUF.PK).
    Oct 24, 2010
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.