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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, June 17, 2012 203 comments
    Jun 17, 2012 12:26 PM

    Well, I started the last Concentrator with the observation that at that time we were still waiting on GWMGF to issue their NI43101, and on LYSCF to receive the long-promised LAMP TOL from the ineffectual Malay government...

    This time, we're still waiting on the TOL, though a tiny baby step along the death of a thousand cuts torture road with the Malaysian government has been accomplished. STILL don't have the TOL, and 2 smallish new demands have been installed out of the blue to cover more Malaysian bureaucratic posterior, though...

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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those who have been following these Concentrators over the past few years may remember the last time I set forth what I call a quick "raid", or list of trades positioned at a crucial trading point where many of the REE/Strat. stocks are involved. I have been studying the current situation, and I feel it, too, is ripe for a similar raid, though it might take longer to unfold that the last.

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ALKEF.... .53.......... .88....... .88.... 1.20.. 90 days
    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. 60 days
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40... 60 days
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. 120 days
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. 60 days
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......2.96... 3.78. 120 days
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. 120 days
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .59...... .94. 120 days
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. 120 days
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... 90 days
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..90 days
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. 60 days
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. 120 days
    MLLOF..... .36......... .19....... .17....... .24... 60 days
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... 90 days
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...60 days
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.39..... 2.11 ...90 days
    RBY........ 4.14........ 3.15 .....2.94..... 3.42... 90 days
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...90 days
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.18 ....13.00.. 90 days
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... 60 days
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... 60 days
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... 90 days
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... 60 days

     

    Most of this list are at or very near my buy targets (some are not, in which case they will probably not work for this raid).

     

    I am already long GWMGF, IAALF, LYSCF, MCP, QREDF, TAS, and UAMY. I have small positions on ARAFF, GDLNF, and UURAF in my sofck drawer, which I will be augmenting for the purposes of this raid.

     

    The Horizon is just a general estimate, I will be making sale decisions on the fly and will post them here.

     

    Banzai!
    17 Jun 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, working on the Raid...

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ALKEF.... .53.......... .88....... .88.... 1.20.. 90 days
    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. In @.18
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40... 60 days
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. 120 days
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. In @.41
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......2.96... 3.78. In @2.96
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. In @.41
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .59...... .94. 120 days
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. 120 days
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... In @.12
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..In @.95
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. In @ 20.00
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. 120 days
    MLLOF..... .36......... .19....... .17....... .24... 60 days
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... In @.22
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...In @.11
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.39..... 2.11 ...In @1.59
    RBY........ 4.14........ 3.15 .....2.94..... 3.42... 90 days
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...In @1.44
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.18 ....13.00.. In @11.04
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... In @.55
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... In @3.18
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... 90 days
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... In @.29
    18 Jun 2012, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tracking, Day 1:

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ALKEF.... .53.......... .88....... .88.... 1.20.. 90 days
    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. In @.18
    (Closed up @.20, up 11.1%
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40... 60 days
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. 120 days
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. In @.41
    (Closed up @.415, up 1.2%
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......3.17... 3.78. In @3.17
    (Note correction, bought in at new Target today.
    Closed up @3.21, up 1.3%
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. In @.41
    (Closed up @.43, up 4.9%
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .59...... .94. 120 days
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. 120 days
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... In @.12
    (Closed up @.127, up 5.8%)
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..In @.95
    (Closed up @.959, up 9.5%)
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. In @ 20.00
    (Closed down @19.94, down .2%
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. In @.189
    (Closed flat @.189)
    MLLOF..... .36......... .19....... .17....... .24... 60 days
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... In @.22
    (Closed up @.234, up 6.4%)
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...In @.11
    (Closed up @13.7, up 24.5%
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.59..... 2.11 ...In @1.59
    (Raised buy target to get this one in the test group...
    Closed down @1.51, down 5.0%)
    RBY........ 4.14........ 3.15 .....2.94..... 3.42... 90 days
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...In @1.44
    (Closed up @1.45, up .7%)
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.18 ....13.00.. In @11.04
    (Closed up @11.10, up 5.4%)
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... In @.55
    (Closed up @.69, up 25.5%)
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... In @3.18
    (Closed up @4.52, up 42.1%)
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... 90 days
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... In @.29
    (Closed up @.3125, up 7.8%)

     

    Overall average: Up 9.4%

     

    Thus far have entered into 15 stocks, with 10 more potentially still to be added to the raid.

     

    Good first day.
    18 Jun 2012, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tracking, Day 2:

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ALKEF.... .53.......... .88....... .88.... 1.20.. 90 days
    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. In @.18
    (Closed down @.19, up 5.55%
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40... 60 days
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. 120 days
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. In @.41
    (Closed up @.44, up 7.3%
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......3.17... 3.78. In @3.17
    (Note correction, bought in at new Target today.
    Closed up @3.21, up 1.3%)
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. In @.41
    (Closed up @.4175, up 1.8%)
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .59...... .94. 120 days
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. 120 days
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... In @.12
    (Closed up @.1326, up 10.5%)
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..In @.95
    (Closed up @1.06, up 11.6%)
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. In @ 20.00
    (Closed up @20.64, up 3.2%)
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. In @.189
    (Closed up @.1965, up 4.0% )
    MLLOF..... .36......... .19....... .17....... .24... 60 days
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... In @.22
    (Closed up @.231, up 5.0%)
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...In @.11
    (Closed up @13.75, up 25.0%)
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.59..... 2.11 ...In @1.59
    (Raised buy target to get this one in the test group...
    Closed down @1.58, down .6%)
    RBY........ 4.14........ 3.15 .....2.94..... 3.42... 90 days
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...In @1.44
    (Closed up @1.45, up .7%)
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.18 ....13.00.. In @11.04
    (Closed up @11.26, up 2.0%)
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... In @.55
    (Closed up @.68, up 23.6%)
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... In @3.18
    (Closed up @4.68, up 47.2%)
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... 90 days
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... In @.29
    (Closed up @.295, up 1.7%)

     

    Overall average: Up 9.4%

     

    Thus far have entered into 16 stocks, with 9 more potentially still to be added to the raid.
    19 Jun 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Tracking, Day 3:

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ALKEF.... .53.......... .88....... .88.... 1.20.. 90 days
    (About to give up on ALKEF, current volume on the pinks is just too small)
    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. In @.18
    (Closed up @.207, up 15.0%)
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40... 60 days
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. 120 days
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. In @.41
    (Closed up @.43, up 4.9%
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......3.17... 3.78. In @3.17
    (Closed down @3.12, down 1.6%)
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. In @.41
    (Closed up @.4365, up 6.5%)
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .59...... .94. 120 days
    (Price has been softening, may reach Target...)
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. 120 days
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... In @.12
    (Closed up @.1226, up 2.2%)
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..In @.95
    (Closed up @1.08, up 13.7%)
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. In @ 20.00
    (Closed up @22.43, up 12.2%)
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. In @.189
    (Closed up @.2109, up 11.6% )
    MLLOF..... .36......... .19....... .17....... .24... 60 days
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... In @.22
    (Closed up @.231, up 5.0%)
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...In @.11
    (Closed up @13.75, up 25.0%)
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.59..... 2.11 ...In @1.59
    (Closed up @1.85, up 16.4%)
    RBY........ 4.14........ 3.15 .....2.94..... 3.42... 90 days
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...In @1.44
    (Closed up @1.71, up 18.8%)
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.18 ....13.00.. In @11.04
    (Closed up @11.20, up 1.4%)
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... In @.55
    (Closed up @.60, up 8.3%)
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... In @3.18
    (Closed up @4.45, up 39.9%)
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... 90 days
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... In @.29
    (Closed up @.3139, up 8.2%)

     

    Overall average: Up 11.7%!
    20 Jun 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1502) | Send Message
     
    TB, having sold all but a token amount of our MCP-PA, I still "think" it will be well higher by 3/1/2014 (mandatory conversion date) but at these levels I am looking also at writing at-the-money / in-the-money puts. If put-buyers want to pay me to wait for what I consider the inevitable, I'm OK with that...
    17 Jun 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I agree. Strategy makes sense. I have not added anymore of the preferred, and now I see trading the common as the superior method. I arrived at this conclusion after it became clear that their 2012 timeline no longer applied (I had always been doubtful of it, and events have shown it to be at least 6-12 months off). Had they been able to hit their schedule for Phoenix (particularly the accelerated schedule, which was strongly advertised at the time)...

     

    What I did not anticipate (and probably should have) is the powerful sector rotation out of the REE sector, which synchronized with the same event which has followed the collapse of the altenergy sector. This makes me feel particularly dumb, since I was one of those predicting that all that money thrown at altenergy would just result in mammoth waste. I decided that the demand for rare earths would continue, and constitute an "exception"due to the multitude of demand in the greater economy.

     

    I committed the cardinal sin of predicting that gigantic hedge funds would NOT throw the baby out with the bath water, when history has shown that they usually do.

     

    I still have my moderate core in MCP-PA, and plan to hold for the time being. I am resuming my normal operation of trading the common and accumulating low/no cost residual shares longer term.
    17 Jun 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NCN67H

     

    Lynas announcement about Appeal of the TOL.
    17 Jun 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    We're off and running!!!
    17 Jun 2012, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Don't get too excited. LYC on ASX is actually trailing where we ended Friday, down about $.02 from our close of $.99. If the pinks fall in step with the ASX (which usually happens) we could gap down a few cents a share tomorrow morning, say $.97. Given the "good" news from Greece, and the prevailing upbeat markets, this is not good.

     

    Best case it just means that we got too excited about this Friday in the pinks, and the calmer heads in Sydney realize Lynas still doesn't have their TOL, and the next hurdle is the Malay parliament (which may extend into their election cycle in October, or whenever they seat their new Parliament in 2013, etc).
    17 Jun 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Now that our little girl has graduated from high school and is going off to college it might be interesting to look into the crystal ball to future potential developments. It will be very interesting to see that the conversation shift from LAMP political challenges to technical progress which, IMO, will provide a solid foundation to warrant significant share price appreciation...

     

    It won't happen overnight but it will be unstoppable...
    18 Jun 2012, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Lynas ended up 6.25% last night on the ASX -- up AUD $0.055. Undoubtedly the ASX 80 point rise last night (premature Greek election euphoria) as well as the dismissal of the AELB appeal contributed to the Lynas rise. Global economic reality checks tonight could keep us on the roller coaster.
    18 Jun 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas was up vs its prior close on the ASX, but down a bit from its close in the US pinks., which was $.99. With a $.937 (after exchange) downunder, we should see a $.053 drop at open for LYSCF. After that the pinks typically won't react without a major player entering them, or late news (which might happen today, this looks like a major news day).

     

    Toly: You cannot imagine how much I wished that this was, indeed, the end of Lynas being bogged down in the middle of Malay politics, and I really look forward to that day.

     

    As for technical progress, I expect we will see some of that whenever they ultimately get a TOL and start TOL-ling.
    18 Jun 2012, 08:25 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmm, just checked, and the A$ strengthened overnight, so my estimates are off just a bit...

     

    I would think the gap down might be $.04 or so, assuming the A$ continues to strengthen. Call it $.95 on the pinks.
    18 Jun 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    From what I have read on HC, I think there's still some confusion over what's happened. False starts, unsure of translations, unsure of which way the political winds are blowing, Europe, etc., etc. seemed to have muted the importance of this milestone.

     

    LYSCF hit $1.71 when we had that last rally, I doubt if we'll see that today or tomorrow.
    18 Jun 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17309) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF), (LYSDY): "The End of China's Stranglehold on the Rare Earth Market May Be in Sight "

     

    A piece pumping reports available, really.

     

    http://mwne.ws/MlmOBX

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jun 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CNBC mentions Lynas:

     

    http://bit.ly/LgEzEL

     

    Garbled and behind the curve as usual, but its "positive" buzz.
    18 Jun 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New for Arafura:

     

    http://bit.ly/LAJP2K

     

    Major Chinese backer tops up the tank, back to 24.x% share of the company.
    18 Jun 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • DM Lanthier
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    PSC gives Lynas the green light

     

    http://bit.ly/MCl1tV

     

    Another roadblock removed. Now here is another chance for Minister Ongkili and the ruling party to show a little spine and issue the TOL.

     

    However, with all of these conditions tied to the temporary license, I'm worried that one mistake will cause the license to be revoked. There are certain to be a lot of eyes watching every move Lynas makes, every puff of dust will be assumed to be a toxic cloud, and every toilet flush will be sampled for radioactivity. Lynas and the LAMP employees better bring their "A" game when the license is finally issued.
    19 Jun 2012, 12:44 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    Lynas 8ยข up in Oz as we slept. In US bux that means 1.03. Up in Frankfurt right now that translates to 1.04 for us.
    19 Jun 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NeylFP

     

    A hint that the TOL is coming soon.

     

    Opposition is still in opposition, and will be until they die. No news there.
    19 Jun 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/rdl62B

     

    TMR's latest List of Advanced Projects. I always like to look over the Value Metric Chart. Thanks to them for the great information resource.
    19 Jun 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Glad I own Lynas. Soon will be glad I don't own the others. Lynas remains the best resource in the space. If Lynas goes into production in the next few months at current rare earth prices I would expect that feasibility will be an issue for the rest of the REE stocks. It is a small market and the costs to start up with a weak resource make it very difficult to compete with Lynas. Lynas never faced this risk being the vastly superior resource. But if they get into production the rest have an additional risk. This will be the main problem for GW. If GW's integrated model fails (a virtual certainty in my mind), the stock is dead money.
    19 Jun 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good to see you, Chi. Thanks for the drive-by.
    19 Jun 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Drive-by? I spent fifteen months here saying what appears to be happening might occur, and now it is drive-by. It is way early to call for a victory lap, but it is hardly a drive-by either. I write less now because I don't want to be too repetitive. That said, Lynas IS de-risking and unless market prices improve the rest of the stocks are adding risk once there is more non-Chinese supply IMO.
    19 Jun 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, loads of speculation cranking up now as to "how high Lynas will bounce" as a result of finally getting the TOL...

     

    First of all, its best to remember that it doesn't have it yet, so still we wait and wonder...

     

    But now that I think about it, I did put out a WAG a few weeks back that, should Lynas get the TOL, that might double the stock price from the recent low (which was when I made the comment, as I recall).

     

    That would be $1.68, which oddly enough is very similar to the projections put forth at about the same time by a herd of analists (I believe their average is around $1.7x).

     

    Personally I am aiming for the $1.68, just to be contrary. And I think we will get there quickly after the TOL is finally tendered.
    19 Jun 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Action in Lynas started up where we left off at $1.06, but has tailed off to A$1.045 as I write this. This resembles the behavior we have been seeing over the past few days on the ASX, with the pinks leading upward toward a slightly higher ground, followed by the ASX sliding down a bit.

     

    http://bit.ly/KS9PHp

     

    Lynas pdf mentioning that they have filed the 2 new requirements set forth by Ongkili, and acknowledging the PSC report.
    19 Jun 2012, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC ended at A$1.015 - flat from prior ASX close, but down about $.05 from yesterday's close on the pinks.

     

    Faith in the Malay government appears to be weak in Sydney, LOL, for some reason...
    20 Jun 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Faith in the Malay government should remain weak (for all Malaysian business). But if and when the LAMP is up and running the science of the issue should quickly take over the dialogue IMO. This will push opposition into the background and show the strength of the future Lynas business model. The politics remain the primary risk in the stock. But I think on a risk reward basis they will keep LYC as an opportunity for the near future. At theses prices and with the recent movement in Malaysia, I see the stock as a big opportunity currently.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/LDrDW7

     

    Political risk. Still kicking.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Years ago after a tiresome round with the foibles of Lynas management, I observed that "I am invested in Lynas despite the management, not because of it". That was of course on the occasion of NC's attempted "grand theft, mine" when he sought to sell the non-ree assets of the company to his own captive creation, Forge...

     

    Now, after a really nasty wade through the political and geopolitical consequences of NC's past choices, I will reiterate that sentiment, and add:

     

    I am invested in Lynas despite the likely perpetual involvement of the Malaysian political class, not because of it.

     

    Its noteworthy that there was not the slightest hint in the recent Duncan update about building the new A$600m facility in Malaysia...

     

    I WILL go on record that the moment that news that Lynas will be building that new facility in Malaysia is released, I will be selling off my holdings.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Not a factor if LAMP is running. We've seen some back peddling from opposition leadership in comments already (not Anwar comments). If elections are even a few months after LAMP production I doubt they try to close it. LAMP opposition is 90% a form of BN opposition. If the government is overthrown and the plant is already bringing in GDP and jobs I doubt the political risk to LAMP is much at that point. So for now the political risk is real but de-risking.
    Oddly enough I consider the political risk growing for many other REE projects. My experience is the greens only act near the end of a build. Many REE projects need to be further on in construction before I think we can access their true political risk.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    The attempted sale of Crown to Forge was March through May of last year. As I recall, I was the firmest opposition of the sale of anyone on this site and your initial view was that it was not that important.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Its not all about you, Chi. I was trying to make a general philosophical distinction, not compete with you. My memory is that you were, indeed, also against the sale.

     

    If you just want to fight with someone, Stockhouse awaits.
    20 Jun 2012, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    It's not about me. And I'm not wanting a fight. But I felt your first comment misstated the prior concentrators.
    20 Jun 2012, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I disagree. I was talking about the niobium, titanium and tantalum deposits before you ever posted.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I was curious, so looked up my first comment when then Forge matter first surfaced:

     

    "Personally, I'm a bit concerned that Lynas (which I am invested in) gets their full value for those deposits. The niobium, in particular, is an important asset - its the 2nd largest and richest niobium deposit on earth. Frankly, $29m doesn't sound like much money..."

     

    Then:

     

    " I like nick just fine, but I don't owe him anything. I would be more at ease knowing this deposit had been put up for sale to the world and went to the highest bidder. "

     

    I remember you as definitely unhappy with the deal also.
    21 Jun 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KRF3OZ

     

    New interview with Jack Lifton. He covers lots of ground, but has some kind words even for Lynas and the LAMP, which he recently toured.
    19 Jun 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Meant to mention that Jack talked about Rhodia reopening their La Rochelle plant (capable of handling HREEs). This has been mentioned in the past in regard to a potential customer for Lynas to sell mixed concentrate which they are not geared to handle. This question may still come up between the LAMP entering production and whatever future year the new Duncan plant might come on line. Having Rhodia in the loop will help both the bottom line and with affirming Lynas as a reliable supplier of more than just 3 or 4 elements.

     

    Jack thinks highly of several juniors in addition to the 3 leaders, GWM, MCP and LYC. This in particular revolves around the elements not being produced in sufficient quantity (even with GWM producing HREEs, MCP handling the small requirements for the American defense establishment, and Rhodia with its small 4kt plant).

     

    The elements Jack focused on include europium, terbium, dysprosium and yttrium (the non-rare earth which is often grouped with them even so).

     

    The companies Jack believes will be early to produce these elements are GWM, UURAF, TAS, and LYSCF when they develop Duncan. 2nd tier would be REE, HAS (ASX stock) and NOURF.
    19 Jun 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    China has more to say about its rare earth position.
    http://read.bi/LBxUGx
    20 Jun 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Lynas Chairman Nick Curtis reports delivering all necessary documents to meet 2 additional conditions requested by the AELB. He expects the TOL (temporary operating licence) to be issued "as soon as we get to a point where they [the AELB] are satisfied with our submission ..." http://bit.ly/LBKDGj
    20 Jun 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Was there a reason for the rally today in the rare earth space?
    20 Jun 2012, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It seems to be about another supply squeeze from China.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    20 Jun 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, down elevator for Lynas is again fully engaged...

     

    This headline may have something to do with it, though the actual content in the article does not match the headline or following tagline (talking about TOL issuance "before the end of the year").

     

    http://bit.ly/LH02Is

     

    The Malay politics never ends.

     

    I am adding a little on the dip...
    21 Jun 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    I wonder if this latest headwind has Fuzzy and company behind it?

     

    "An MP is calling on the State Government to make radiation monitoring results public after revelations the Lynas Corporation has been stockpiling rare earth concentrate in Bibra Lake."

     

    http://bit.ly/M9xOWe
    21 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Since Bibra Lake is located near Perth, I imagine that the Australian Greens Party is checking on this situation.
    http://bit.ly/KWslOT
    http://bit.ly/KWslOV
    21 Jun 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Well, let's see, if the Malaysian government doesn't seem to have qualms about developing potential polluting gas fields off of the coast where the LAMP is located, then I would think that they will give the okay on the LAMP eventually.
    http://bit.ly/L8d9MT
    21 Jun 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    I had the same thought VB; my other thought was Hess investors beware of promises made and promises broken!
    21 Jun 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I think that "production sharing contracts" is the key phrase in the gas article. I imagine that the government wants to have similar contracts with the LAMP. That must be the sticking point in their negotiations with Lynas behind closed doors, even more so than the waste disposal issue.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/KBkEkl

     

    More garbled media.
    21 Jun 2012, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Buy in on LYSDY at .93.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thinking the same, FPA.

     

    I added at .94, now lurking at .92.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Got the .92.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Got the .93 too. I want more, but I will wait a bit and see what the stock is doing in conjunction with the broader market and watch what you guys and gals are doing :)
    21 Jun 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC is actually up slightly on the ASX right now...

     

    LYSDY MIGHT present some cheap residual shares early, but I would expect to see the cheap shares go away quick IF this trend downunder continues (and we really didn't destroy the known universe today by downgrading a handful of overprivileged 2Bigs).
    21 Jun 2012, 10:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Funny thing is that I can find all kinds of media which would be supportive of a nice pop for Lynas and the rest of the REE space...

     

    Hard to figure this broad decline.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    Do you think it has something to do with this: "Commodities slide as global growth concerns mount"
    http://on.wsj.com/L8Kya9

     

    I kind of think the boys are also using it to push out of their short positions. I had read a few weeks back Lynas was heavily shorted. Don't if it was true or still is true but I imagine those shorts would like to get out and get long right around this time.

     

    What do you think?
    21 Jun 2012, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    I did a little digging and while I am not sure my sources are reliable it appears they had 9% of their outstanding shorted as of May 10.

     

    http://bit.ly/MytD35

     

    And as of today they have 5.4M shares shorted or ~3%.

     

    http://bit.ly/MwAUm1

     

    If those sources are correct within two months short interest has fallen off a cliff going from ~9% to ~3%. That little potential short squeeze the other week that popped LYC up to ~1.05 may have cleared out a lot of the shorts. And this *could* be another attempt at clearing out the rest. (I am still wet behind the ears at this stuff.)

     

    Anyone been watching the shorts more closely?
    21 Jun 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17309) | Send Message
     
    TB, maybe USD? Currently $82.57 and seems to be in an uptrend.

     

    World GDP in decline, folks run to poppa!

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jun 2012, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The recent higher prices probably did represent some short squeeze action, where shorts had to cover bets and buy out their positions...

     

    But a big, abrupt, drop which I really can't align with news would not be shorts getting squeezed (that would still have the usual effect of short term increasing prices). On the contrary, I see this as some large long investors fleeing the market, a general rout which is particularly focused on the altenergy sector (of which REE's are often considered a sub-sector, though I would argue that this is at best only partly true).

     

    If anything, this steep drop in share price will entice shorts to re-enter this stock assuming it has become one of their favored haunts.

     

    We can only hope that this has all happened as a reflection of the ASX last night - the GS proclamation looking for a return to 12xx S&P and another 5% drop in share prices which seems to have played a role in today's nasty markets at a macro level - and that sanity will resume at some point in the future...

     

    Believe it or not, that is one of the rosier scenarios for us.

     

    Darker would be that some large investors (particularly in Sydney) have good reason to suspect that Lynas will not be seeing a TOL until some time after the Malay elections (probably mid to late October), or perhaps even early in 2013 sometime. The easiest explanation for large drops in share price is usually simply that a lot of shares went on sale by sellers not real particular how cheap the shares sold, but just looking to exit fast.
    21 Jun 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » HTL: Sure, that is part of the answer. The dollar didn't appreciate that much in one day...
    21 Jun 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    Yep, Just to be clear I was not suggesting the drop was shorts, I was hinting at big boyz who short were finding a way to manipulate through some big holder friends who sell heavy to drive down the price so their short friends can exit their short position with gains.

     

    Of course this is very tin-foil hattish. That big funds that manage the peasants money are selling it for a loss to help their individual short hedgy friends make money. Now that I am saying it out loud it sounds silly. I guess I don't know how they would do it, but I could see some kind of manipulation pushing the price down to help shorts cover and book gains before the stock rises more.

     

    From my outside perspective the writing is on the wall that the TOL is coming, perhaps, within days so I don't see much other reasons other than mass exodus from the markets and commodity oriented stocks.
    21 Jun 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Here we agree TB.
    I think the sector news is OK. But the macro data (China growth, Brazil, India and Europe concern and US softening) combined with weak oil and an overall defensive trade made REE an easy target today in part based on their prior bubble history. I think several of the traders in Lynas are not willing to hold through any politics if the general market shows weakness. Lynas is getting a lot of volatility because of that, but I like the buys by you and FPA.
    21 Jun 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I checked it out, HTL:

     

    June 21 $USD = A$.980479
    June 20 $USD = A$.982163

     

    $ went up about .2% since yesterday (negligable effect).

     

    LOL, of course I saw some guy on Yahoo telling everyone the A$ had dropped 5 cents overnight...
    21 Jun 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We usually agree, Chi.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    Update on shorts for LYC: June 21st

     

    They are now down to 3.5M shares short or ~2%. From my post above on June 20th it was 5.4M and now today it is 3.4M. 2M short shares booked their gains yesterday. That seems like a lot of shorts deciding they better get out while they can. Personally, I have always thought Shorts often know something more about the direction of a stock than just heavy sellers.

     

    So if I had to decide between 1. Heavy sellers are driving down the price = something bad or 2. Shorts exiting their positions at a pretty good clip = good. I think I would put more weight on the latter.

     

    Other thoughts?
    22 Jun 2012, 08:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Interesting take on the recent softness in commodity prices. I tend to agree with the overall perspective.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC is trading flat downunder, actually doing better than it did here today (thank goodness). We might even see a small bounce in the morning.

     

    Today's stampede appears to have been overdone, though doubtless there was much jubilation at GS as they once again demonstrated why "its good to be king". Meanwhile we peasants are out wading through the blood looking for survivors...
    21 Jun 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    John Kaisers exhaustive read on China's white paper, and the current state of the rare earth sector. This is on his new blog which is open to
    non-subscribers. The man doesn't leave out a single detail ;)

     

    http://bit.ly/O1ttpW
    21 Jun 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Malay Prime Minister urges that with Lynas everyone needs to rely on scientific facts, not assumptions. Najib pointed out that, "confidence in the safety of the operation was not confined to government supporters but also endorsed by opposition members of parliament, even though their views differed from the parties they represented." http://bit.ly/O4q3D8
    22 Jun 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Najib is desperate to "clear the decks" of potential headaches prior to the upcoming elections. This primarily concerns delaying things until he can push enough government giveaways through Parliament (ongoing) to buy votes from the dependent class. This also involves headline topics like Lynas, which the opposition has managed to make synonomous with the battle over the environment, their children, and fears of nuclear contamination. Perhaps if Najib can buy enough votes with the government gifts, the recipients will forget about Lynas...

     

    Unfortunately, this also means that it might be very valuable for the ruling party to be seen as "tough" with Lynas, particularly if the gifts are deemed insufficient.

     

    Presumably after the elections (mid-October some time) the leadership could go back to normal business, including not catering to the ignorant fears of the masses... Assuming Najib and his party don't lose, of course. The opposition has already promised to suspend Lynas' operating permit (which my cynical side makes me wonder, is different from Najib exactly how, really, when the end result is the same?)

     

    The countering pressure comes, of course, from Lynas (in a small way), but primarily from Malaysia's long term plans to develop Malaysian industry with foreign capital investment and create high paying jobs for Malaysia.

     

    UNFORTUNATELY this political equation will virtually always fall on the side of the logic which resonates most with the politicians, ie "...I plan to do good things for everyone, but I have to get re-elected for any of those good things to happen..."

     

    I hope I'm wrong, but its very likely that the delays for Lynas will include waiting out the Fall elections, and hoping that the same guys that invited them into Malaysia (and who then engineered the delays as a solution for their political problems) decide that taking a hit from the voters when they allow Lynas to start operations, short term, is a better idea than making Lynas wait while they are busy getting re-elected.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    I would think this is hurting their cash position... on top of this, I understand they will need another large chunk of capital to develop the heavy RE operation... How do you think they are going to raise that capital, and any ideas on timing?
    22 Jun 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Lynas faithful (which does not include me) still insist everything is hunky dory, not to worry, and they have plenty of funding...

     

    I believe they have probably completed Phase 1, which should help with cash burn, other than the continuing Phase 2 construction which is separately funded with restricted money (which still looks sufficient to me, btw).

     

    So the problems come in as the startup date keeps stetching out and out...

     

    My own idea is that they have already exceeded the limits of their planned timeline which would have avoided a new round of funding, and that its just a question of how BIG the next round will be, and from what source. I believe they can still go back to either well (Sojitz or the Boyz on Wall Street) and get some more cash to tide them over a few months, but if they have to mothball the LAMP and Mount Weld and wait until after the Malaysian elections (with all the uncertainties that will present), their status as a penny stock may remain unchanged into 2013.

     

    I still see them as an easy $2 stock upon production startup, and $3-$4 as they ramp up, if not more.

     

    In the Duncan announcement they said they could finance the estimated $600m cost from operating cash, which would be nice...
    22 Jun 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Trip.
    22 Jun 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    "...waiting out the fall election."

     

    Perhaps, I do not have the whole story but it appears to me that the politics of Malaysia have already signed off on approving the TOL through both the PSC and the Minister of Science rejecting the appeal. Lynas is now waiting on the thumbs up from the AELB to be satisfied with their submission that they have met the two new conditions the Minister of Science set forth when he ruled against the appeal and the TOL will be theirs.

     

    I am sure their will continue to be a "green" political groups that maintain their platform on fighting Lynas, but from what I have read both major parties are actually stating that science should prevail here.

     

    I am pretty new here although I have been lurking since last Oct., so I appreciate the education.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Whenever politicians agree that scientific facts should be the criteria, we can count on political agendas to trump science every time.

     

    If this were really all about science, the LAMP would have been in operation since September, 2011.

     

    As I have said many times, I hope I am wrong in ascribing venal political motives to the selfless Malay leaders...

     

    LOL.
    22 Jun 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1910) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps, those not-so-selfless Malay leaders were the ones shorting the stock, are now exiting those positions and have gotten their proverbial pockets lined. :-)
    22 Jun 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/MoZl2n

     

    More about the sudden discovery that loads of rare earths have been smuggled out of China in the past, including currently.

     

    One bewildered Chinese official blurted out that they think half of everything they shipped was smuggled (and appeared nowhere in their official statistics).

     

    Since I have been reporting this for years and have taken it for granted in my personal thinking, I have to treat these headlines with some amusement...

     

    Needless to say, this revelation throws into doubt the "official" world demand numbers for rare earths which have always been based upon the Chinese government shipping statistics. This would mean, of course, that an extimate of 120kt per year would need to be adjusted (doubled?) to reflect this reality.

     

    These latest numbers (which I find really funny) indicate that a large percentage of what had been reported as "exported" out of China somehow "grew" about 20% on the receiving end. Assuming this "overshipping" (doubtless with quiet payments made to various swiss bank accounts by the importers) might NOT have been part of the estimated smuggling...

     

    The "official" numbers become ragged indeed.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/OjTZLo

     

    Gold technicals broken, collapse coming
    25 Jun 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am sticking with my estimate that Gold could spike down into the 1400's, and I mean "spike". It could happen very quickly. The effect on margin calls could be what accelerates it through the $1500's very quickly...

     

    And that assumes there is no "piling on" from the exchanges. Should there be a currency war bubbling among the big trading blocs (and I still see signs of that building everywhere), the exchanges are likely to get involved.

     

    Silver, beaten down three times as much as Gold, and already trading at a historically high ratio to Gold, might remain stable or even move contrary to Gold.

     

    My long-held personal theory that the massive shorting of silver for the last decade has been used to keep a damper on Gold prices might have a correlary, ie, that when Gold drops enough, the suppression of Silver (which has a high carrying cost) might well ease.
    25 Jun 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bloom.bg/MqxEaV

     

    Potentially very bad news for Great Western.

     

    Though it pretty much takes outright nationalization off the table, the idea of a new 50% mining tax appears to enjoy widespread political support in South Afrika.

     

    So, Australia is installing a 30% mining tax PLUS Cap n' Tax (on top of the pre-existing taxes, well over 50% btw)...

     

    The politicians worldwide are gathering around the golden geese with murder in their eyes!

     

    The folks buying physical metal may have a point.
    26 Jun 2012, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LyXHhn

     

    MEDIA BRIEFING ON LYNAS
    Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) will conduct a media briefing regarding Lynas issue that will be held on:-
    Date: June, 28 2012 (Thursday; Time: 2.30 pm
    Location: Board Meeting Room, Blok C, AELB Dengkil

     

    All press and media are invited.
    26 Jun 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent. We can only hope for the best at this point...
    26 Jun 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    If they say yes, is that it?
    26 Jun 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » At this point I see the road with several potential forks:

     

    1. They agree with Ongkili and the PSC, review the Lynas response to the updated requirements, and issue the TOL.

     

    2. They agree with Ongkili and the PSC, and declare that they need more time to review the new Lynas response (Delay).

     

    3. They disagree with Ongkili, and forward new demands to Lynas for reponse (Delay).

     

    4. They announce that they are reviewing all the new data, plus the long report from the PSC, will be consulting international third party experts, and will get back with us after the elections some time.
    26 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am about 60% thinking that #1 will happen...

     

    Here's hoping.
    26 Jun 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Paws crossed and wiskers twitching!
    26 Jun 2012, 11:39 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    Article in today's FT "Malaysian greens join rare earths battle" and a version online at

     

    http://on.ft.com/Lzs5Kk
    26 Jun 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sorry Ung, that one just dumps me on the FT front page. I did a search for "Lynas" but the newest article it found was June 24.
    26 Jun 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    The article is in my printed version of today's FT. The link works for me, but googling: "Malaysian greens join rare earths battle" ought to take you to the June 25 online article.

     

    As we get closer to the LAMP's formal approval (TOL), I guess they're trying to turn up the heat.
    26 Jun 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is experiencing its very own Flash Crash on the ASX tonight. It just bounced off of A$.735!

     

    HotCopper guys are in shock. Reporting their stops getting trtipped. 53 million shares traded, and surging.

     

    Could this be a major raid, big shark driving down prices to trip stops, then pick up shares cheap? Already the stock has gone back up to A$.82!

     

    Folks with stops are getting absolutely raped. Be aware!

     

    Chi, I hope you are OK downunder...
    26 Jun 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    oh no!
    27 Jun 2012, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC seems stable around A$.81... But an additional 26million shares changed hands REAL quick there. I really do wonder if MS just gulped down a quick whale-sized lunch they plan to see grow tomorrow with good news from Malaysia...

     

    Impossible to tell. Its just hypnotic.
    27 Jun 2012, 12:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just checked Lynas website...

     

    They just posted the new quarterly Market Basket update, and it showed a big drop:

     

    http://bit.ly/nPJlrM

     

    Could be the reason for the wild ride down under...

     

    I believe the current pricing structure out of China is pure science fiction, though...

     

    Interesting that HotCopper has not picked up on this factor yet, usually they are much closer to the action than me.
    27 Jun 2012, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    That is a drop in the Market Basket, but I think it had been at US$57.xx a week or two ago, so that's probably not the reason for the wild ride. It wasn't too long ago that the MB value was between US$90-100.

     

    Trading ended Downunder that equates to $.83 in US bux.
    27 Jun 2012, 06:49 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Posted on the AUX exchange:

     

    Lynas Corporation Limited - Price Query

     

    The company is not aware of any information concerning it that has not been announced which, if known, could be an explanation for recent trading in the securities of the company.

     

    The company is not aware of any reason for the price change and increase in volume in the securities of the company.
    ---
    27 Jun 2012, 02:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » There were obviously a ton of folks who went on margin to expand their Lynas holdings due to the timing and attractive price, and someone with deep pockets (MS?) took them to the cleaners.

     

    The stock went from .89 close Tuesday to .735 bottom Wednesday back to .825 after the flash crash which tripped perhaps 25million shares in stops (and which were quickly bought during the brief stay in the bargain basement.

     

    Those buying on margin (and it appears that was a large number of retail investors trading on the ASX) got destroyed.
    27 Jun 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Could they have shorted it down to trigger the stops?
    27 Jun 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Absolutely. This is why I have been calling this event a "flash crash". With the hype - the runup to the AELB meeting today - and the likelihood that the TOL will be issued - this represented a huge opportunity for someone who had been selling off at $1.20+, but still held about 6-7% of the company, with $100m+ in cash just sitting there to buy back up to the 10% level (check the older announcements from the last month for LYC on the ASX, MS posted its pdf with its quarterly trades, required because it was holding 10% of the company before it started selling off...)

     

    Or it could be one of the other whales that have sniffed around Lynas over the years, JPM, GS, etc.

     

    I'm reading reports of very large orders suddenly appearing "at market" around 1:20pm (Sydney time) when there were few buy orders on the board. This catapulted the price down to the low .70's and triggered a storm of stops, releasing millions of shares of sale orders...

     

    You get the picture.

     

    I don't buy on margin anymore, and have very deep stops or none at all since the Flash Crash.
    27 Jun 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Many thanks for those updates on Lynas action last night TB. I never touch margin or stops in this market -- too many games being played. I linked to your comment and ungawah's on StockTalk where I have commented on LYSCF in the past.
    mj
    27 Jun 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    A quick look at a 4 year monthly chart and you can make a case for LYC getting to .50-.60 -- the breakout point way back when. Seems ridiculous but.... hasn't the whole thing been rather ridiculous?
    27 Jun 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Worst case scenario, that could happen. It would require that the AELB deny the TOL (with no foundation established for this move, this seems all but unthinkable).

     

    Another delay until the Malay elections (probably mid-October) would have the potential to drive the price down to the low 80's and high 70's and keep it there, though.

     

    Its not the current price which I find revealing, however, but the flash crash downunder last night, and the WAY it occurred.

     

    Do sophisticated institutional investers REALLY just dump millions of shares "at Market" over a very brief span just so they can setup some tax time losses? My BS detectors start wailing when I hear "explanations" like that.

     

    Still, we simply CANNOT know anything certain until the next MS disclosure statement in August or September, and even that assumes it is them pulling the puppet's strings.

     

    We should know what the AELB has decided to do very soon, however.
    27 Jun 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Probably there were some major stops under the recent low and when those got tripped, the cascade started. The algos detected it, pulled their bids and presto! Flash crash.

     

    As for the way it has been trading.... let's just say it has not been trading like TOL is imminent (again). You had to know going into last night's trading that the low being taken out was a real possibility (or at least tested).

     

    And as for the basket prices-- isn't that the point Lifton was trying to make all along? Will LAMP be profitable (or how profitable) having spent that much money for a basket like that full of LREEs?
    27 Jun 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The flash crash is now rippling through the ADRs and Pinks on our markets. Though only a small fraction of the size of the ASX action on Lynas, we will inevitably see the effects here of the toll exacted downunder.
    27 Jun 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    Regarding Great Western and South Africa, Zuma says: "The economic power relations of the apartheid era have, in the main, remained intact. The ownership of the economy is still primarily in the hands of white males... The time has come to do something drastic."
    27 Jun 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    which is why GW was smart to give up 25 (or 26)% to BEE from the get go....
    27 Jun 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They had no choice - its the law.

     

    The problem is simple demographics. Until enough of the mature white males which were in the driver's seat before the end of apartheid retire or die, the natural process of incorporating females and majorities (blacks are definitely NOT minorities in South Africa) into positions of authority will take time... And some, particularly unemployed youth during a global recession, get impatient.

     

    The question for the ANC is a hard one, since the correct answer (which is to continue with the rule of law and fair-handed application of that law) is also the one which will guarantee unrest among the lower tiers of their own Party. The easy path is to slaughter the golden geese, nationalize everything owned by foreigners or run by domestic white males, and make their own lowest common denominators dance with joy. This way also lies the specter of Zimbabwee and the transformation of their own young troublemakers recently ostrasized by the Party leadership into their likely political overlords.

     

    Then there is the middle road, which involves USING that rule of law thing to tax the heck out of "the man", starting with the mining industry. This may be their only hope, politically. Much depends on just HOW this is done, of course.

     

    Those few companies with vertical intergrations entirely within South Africa will be well and truly screwed. They either shut down facilities or enter a short-lived zombie existance where they generate profits and hand 99% of them over to the government. Their shareholders will desert them, and their value will vanish, weakening them so that their competition not similarly saddled in South Africa can easily undercut them and destroy them.

     

    Companies that simply dig up ore and ship it outside the country will have the best hope of surviving, particularly if they are shipping to their own refining facilities, where most of the value-added profits can be realized.

     

    GWM is stuck somewhere in-between. I hate to say this, but I believe they should put the new separation plant jv on "hold" until they see where this whole thing goes. If the new confiscatory mining tax initiative goes through, they can just build the plant somewhere else and ship their ore there.
    27 Jun 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    yep. And a valid one at that. I would think that GW and the rest of the miners have watched Lynas/Malaysia and have filed it under What Not to Do.... if they haven't, shame on them.
    27 Jun 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    My concern focuses on whether the people doing the short selling have inside information on the AELB decision. If it is yet another delay, and Lynas is short on cash ...
    27 Jun 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/QjR5DV

     

    GS downgrade. Interesting timing, a day before the AELB meeting...

     

    So, which is it: GS didn't know about the critical TOL announcement, and just issued another ignorant statement to their myrmidons, just showing how only an idiot listens to them, OR... They knew material confidential information from inside the AELB and chose to front run it for the benefit of their customers.

     

    In one event they are simply morons. In the other they are crooks...

     

    And the third choice is that they and/or their allies just flash crashed the ASX to pick up some quick millions.
    27 Jun 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » How do we synchronize our clocks with the AELB meeting 2:30pm Thursday (their time)? What time would that be here? It would fall after the ASX closes tonight, but what, about 1:30am our time in the morning?
    27 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    TB, I (could be wrong) but according to the World Clock site right now Sydney is 14 hours ahead of us which would make the AELB Lynas announcement @ 2:30 pm tomorrow Sydney = 12:30 am tonight for us. The ASX is open from 8 pm to 2 am ET.

     

    http://bit.ly/LBw07H;p12=
    27 Jun 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The AELB meeting is in Malaysia, Kuala Lampur I believe (many time zones from Sydney). It takes place 2:30 pm Malaysia time.
    27 Jun 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Good point -- Malaysia I believe is 12 hours ahead of ET according to the Global Clock site -- so 2:30 pm Thursday in Kuala Lumpur would be 2:30 am tonight ET. Makes sense 30 minutes after ASX close. These time differences are taxing to the brain aren't they? LOL

     

    http://bit.ly/QktnHv;p12=
    27 Jun 2012, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmm. Now its being shown that the sell orders which initiated the flash crash were the result of HFT quantmonkies. The drop occurred in nanoseconds, as the stock was pounded with large sell orders which were later canceled. This was eerilly similar to our own Flash Crash circumstances, of course.

     

    Then the flood of stops came in by the megamillions, and the feeding frenzy was unleashed.
    27 Jun 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/OyNy7l

     

    Orbite (TSX: ORT) (EORBF.PK) claims to have created the first North American heavy REE commercial samples. This company plans to crank up an aluminum mine by 2014 with heavy rare earths, scandium, gallium, etc as by products.

     

    Another one to watch!
    27 Jun 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    J Kaiser was negative concerning their estimates of rare earths about 6 months ago. Told folks to basically sell due to lack of transparency.
    Waiting to see if he comments with all this new PR lately concerning Orbite.
    27 Jun 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Alkane reports some favorable news on its rare earth potential.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Jun 2012, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/MXjRYp

     

    OK, that's confusing. NC tells us they sent in their data to meet Ongkili's 2 new cya requirements, but the AELB says they are still waiting to see them?

     

    Another source saying the same thing:

     

    http://bit.ly/MCibpF

     

    GASP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

     

    I cannot believe it, its going to be a delay while they play phone tag for 6 months.

     

    Anyone ever read Joseph Heller's masterpiece, "Catch 22"? I'm fairly certain these morons in Malaysia have...
    28 Jun 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hmmmm...

     

    Looks like good ol' Nick just might have stretched the truth when he told us a few days back that he had delivered the answers to the AELB regarding the 2 new Conditions. Right now I am believing the Malaysian AELB bureaucrats when they tell me that Lynas has NOT met the 2 new conditions pre-TOL issuance.

     

    Oops.

     

    And when the ASX queried Lynas about the wild trading, and got the usual "No idea" response, that wasn't really the case, was it? They must have known that some whales had sniffed out what was coming down in Malaysia on the morrow...

     

    No announcement out of Lynas yet.

     

    So its a delay all right - looks like a design and construction delay while they figure out how to handle the 2 new TOL requirements.

     

    They better hurry. After all, China will be running out of REE reserves in only 15 years or so...

     

    We will be lucky to hold above $.80 today.
    28 Jun 2012, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Update: LYSDY bottomed at $.795 today, sure enough.
    28 Jun 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    So the drop was based on inside information... #%&***
    28 Jun 2012, 06:42 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    are you surprised at inside info leaked ?
    28 Jun 2012, 06:50 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    No official response from Lynas yet.

     

    Could it be that Lynas was blindsided by this, and that the leak came from outside Lynas?

     

    Also, maybe this meeting was mistakenly built up to be more meaningful that it was supposed to be?
    28 Jun 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe that is the case, FPA.

     

    I just dropped my Buy target for Lynas to $.69, and that could be too high...

     

    But to be honest, I'm pretty disappointed in the corporate management just about now...
    28 Jun 2012, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » An interesting theory has surfaced in reference to the Lynas flash crash which occurred last Tuesday.

     

    RBS has structured warrants which may have presented a motive for them to seek to trigger legions of warrant holders' stops. This opinion has been voiced by some of those holders on HotCopper and elsewhere...

     

    Of course, I suspect that many of those who were abused by this episode think poorly of their brokers today.
    28 Jun 2012, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Back to TOL-watching...

     

    OK, my old blind is still there, just need to sweep up the litter from the last year's use...

     

    Checklist: binoculars, check.... thermos, check... 6 month supply of MREs (meals, ready to eat), check... Magrueder's Field Guide to Malaysian Bureaucrats, check... Inflatable lazyboy with optional massage feature, check...

     

    [mutter mutter]

     

    Where are those darn cables for the solar panels? Makes sense, they are UNDER the pile of MREs...
    28 Jun 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9608) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for all the Lynas updates, folks.

     

    REE should stand for Ruin Everything Essential.

     

    I agree with Trip (though I haven't checked the charts in some time) in that Lynas could easily plunge below 69.

     

    I'm in full lurking mode:

     

    http://bit.ly/LGoZUT
    28 Jun 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    It's good to see that Lynas closed up a penny and a half last night and that equates to US$0.865 -- trading at about that level in Frankfurt right now.

     

    Discussions on HC shows some confusion over how that meeting in Malaysia went. Supposedly Lynas verifies that they did submit the proper paperwork regarding those two requirements. The sentiment seems positive about the TOL in Oz.
    29 Jun 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My take is that the Malays did the "Malaysian tap dance" with what Nick sent them, rejected it - and Nick didn't think anyone needed to know that.

     

    I have read that some of the other required filings back when took 4 attempts over a period of months before the bureaucrats accepted them as "submitted".

     

    July...
    29 Jun 2012, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/N0hFRz

     

    I like this copper review. Mickey IS 'The Mercenary Geologist', however, and one should never forget that he is probably talking for one of his paying customers. He is not to be viewed as a "disinterested" journalist.

     

    Still, his arguments hold water with me as regards Dr. Copper. I also agree with his take on the sitrep in China: Soft landing is in process.
    30 Jun 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I admire the way Nevada Copper, NCU.to and NEVDF.pk, describes their new copper project located several dozen miles southeast of Reno. They really describe the nitty gritty of it.
    http://bit.ly/N0Oq1d
    30 Jun 2012, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yowza. They have the goods, now they just need the government to get out of the way.

     

    My only quibble is to wonder whether this sort of project would go forward in the same fashion if it was an American miner claiming a similar find in Canada... Nevermind me, its a NAFTA itch I just can't scratch...

     

    Anyway, I have this one firmly on my radar screen now, Valley Boy. Thanks very much, sir!
    30 Jun 2012, 05:34 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It brings back old times. I've been to the old Anaconda mining pit on the west side of Yerington back in the day. Nevada Copper's Pumpkin Hollow project is on the east side of Yerington.
    http://bit.ly/N4nzS0
    30 Jun 2012, 05:46 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It looks like the federal government just might get out of the way in NCU's case.
    http://bit.ly/P1uqPz
    2 Jul 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Here's the latest on the Lynas saga. The CEO now thinks its social media that tripped him up in Malaysia!

     

    http://buswk.co/MlIEt9
    1 Jul 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1502) | Send Message
     
    Nothing new for those who read this concentrator, and a poorly written article at that, which could have benefited greatly from human copy editing. But it still gets Nick Curtis out there showing there are two sides to this story...

     

    http://bloom.bg/NmJdgD
    1 Jul 2012, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    It was good that NC pointed out that these delays could have an impact on future investment in Malaysia. Still haven't heard how Lynas delivered the paperwork covering the last two requirements, but they weren't received.

     

    Lynas finished up a penny and a half in Oz, and means US$.88 for us. Frankfurt is doing the same.
    2 Jul 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (897) | Send Message
     
    Speaking of the writing quality in the news media, many articles that appear in our local papers, even local news, may be written by someone in the Philippines or India. "This American Life" on NPR this weekend had a story about this. Of course it's possible that their English is better than a lot of what we speak. :-)
    Journatic is the company supplying the writing.
    2 Jul 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17309) | Send Message
     
    (GWMGF): "Great Western Minerals Group Reports on New Phase of Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Drill Program"

     

    "While massive to disseminated REE-bearing monazite does not automatically translate into uniform high grades, we are very encouraged by the significant extensions of mineralization adjacent to the previously announced mineral resource (see GWMG news release May 31, 2012) that have doubled the area of interest to over 800 metres along strike. These results give the Company a high degree of confidence about expanded development of this rare earth project."

     

    http://mwne.ws/N5ByU0

     

    HardToLove
    3 Jul 2012, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/NALtRn
    This report is a little more of a professional presentation of the results IMO. I think it is clear that it will be a lot of digging for limited resources based on the report. The Engdahl comments are his usual. Did he write them before he saw the results or is his math that bad? Either way his oblivious pumping is exhausting at this point. The facts are these numbers look like more of the same. It is worthy of note at this point that few geologists are talking up Steen these days.
    4 Jul 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Chi, I must say with all due respect, your comments regarding both GWG and Lynas are exhausting at this point and taken with a grain of salt. Confirmation bias / Cognitive dissonance are in full effect in regards to your comments regarding both these companies.

     

    You don't believe GWG's business model which is fine, I tend not to believe in Lynas's business model. At this point neither one has proven anything, yet your comments remind me of "even a broken clock is right ...."

     

    As, I recall you said GWG wouldn't have the verifiable resources to meet the terms that would trigger the release of the funds, they did and got the funds.

     

    You mentions Engdahl, yet I see no mention of your boy Curtis.

     

    And now because no geologists are talking about Steens this confirms your position. Micky fulp has mercenary in his title for a reason. If I based my investment process on the talking head geologist I would be quite poor.

     

    Best,
    Matt
    5 Jul 2012, 08:56 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    well said Matt. "but, but, but....."
    5 Jul 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    OK Matt.
    But let's face it. Like Lynas and hate GW or Like GW and hate Lynas. It does not matter right now. Neither is truly making progress at this point. As for my comments they are consistent and regrettably repetitive. I think this is a reflection of the current stagnant state of the REE sector. Lynas claims progress while nothing happens. GW got the funds and the only spend I see is on looking for more resources at Steen. If LAMP fires up or the Chinese put some hardware down at Steen we might see progress in the stocks. But right now I agree that they are both watched pots IMO.
    We are half way through 2012. I thought progress was lacking in 2011 but so far 2012 is even slower IMO.
    6 Jul 2012, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    4:13 AM China has started stockpiling rare-earth minerals for the first time, according to the state-run China Securities Journal. China announced its intention in May 2011 to build strategic stockpiles, but didn't begin its purchases until a recent decline in prices. Comment! [Global & FX, Commodities]
    5 Jul 2012, 04:56 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    2:36 PM While downgrading Avalon Rare Metals (AVL), Dahlman Rose's Anthony Young finds two stocks he likes in the rare earth sector: Molycorp (MCP) and Rare Element Resources (REE). The two have the "highest likelihood" of completing projects and generating cash flow in the current environment, he says. [Commodities] Comment!
    6 Jul 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    OT...but a must read article on GOLD...read the comments too. They are very informative.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8 Jul 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    LYSDY down about 6% tonight on the AUX exchange. Asia is down on bad economic news.
    9 Jul 2012, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Jack Lifton reports in the comment section he likes Molycorp, Tasman, Ucore, Lynas, Frontier and Rare Element Resources in the current situation with China attempting to hoard their rare earth reserves. He seems to hint that Molycorp had better come up with some heavy rare earth ores, reading between the lines.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Jul 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Jack has been no more right or wrong than any of us. If Moly has production from Phoenix and Lynas is still stuck in Malaysia, I don't need Jack to tell me Moly would be the best REE stock. I would take cash flow over Jack any day of the week.
    10 Jul 2012, 12:06 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Jack makes some good choices sometimes. It makes sense for him to include Lynas in his thinking about which are the favorable prospects.
    I most strongly disagree with him when he says that the vast majority of rare earth explorers won't survive before they get a chance to send out their ores for concentration. I'm sure many of them will have to consolidate their operations somewhere down the line with the tight cash flow situations. But I think that most of them will survive; miners have a lot of grit.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I was thinking about the Flash Crash and the Lynas Flash Crash...
    The Flash Crash happened May 6, 2010 and that low was subsequently tested and then broken on May 21. It would be conceiveable that Lynas will test that .735 level if it does not hold the .80. Who drove it there in the first place? And why? Chances are they are gunning for that again, unfortunately.....
    9 Jul 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NZxwg5

     

    IBC news about their nuclear fuel rod technology.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on DCHAF. One of the "Raid" plays.

     

    Booked 18.2% profit.
    10 Jul 2012, 01:36 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5815) | Send Message
     
    Very Nice! WTG
    10 Jul 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I would watch the .80 mark in australia tonight....
    10 Jul 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We are nearing the time when someone (Malay bureaucrat or Lynas spokesperson) will have to announce an update on the TOL.

     

    I have grown weary squatting in my TOL-watching blind, and my eyes have permanent bruises from peering through binoculars.

     

    So long as Lynas has some small political utility for the Malaysian politicians, it will be held in limbo. This could well last well into October or November 2013. By then it is possible that MCP will have Phoenix up to some level of production (though I am still doubtful about their prospects as well, they seem to be well behind their most recently announced schedule). Losing the "first to market" advantage would be a heavy blow to Lynas.

     

    A logical goal for someone seeking to enter a longer position in Lynas would be to look for a price under $.80, or perhaps closer to the $.70 price which is the probable result of deducting the LAMP from the company's valuation. This would appear to be an over-reaction to events so long as one discounts the prospect that the current Malay leadership (which persists in both delaying Lynas and issuing praise for the LAMP) may lose the upcoming election...

     

    But the insanity has gone on for so long that the prudent investor must protect their capital, and weigh the risks.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    I wasn't even thinking of the TOL ... I was looking at the chart and thinking of the flash crash. I think they will try to get it to that level again. And breaking .80 to the downside would certainly be a start.

     

    Maybe the TOL will finally come and it won't happen.... but the chart looks ominous for tonight.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They already broke back below $.80 recently. Low $.70's for LYC on the ASX, and I saw it paint $.795 for LYSDY intraday.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:42 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    No, looking at the chart you have the flash crash on the 27th of June with a low of .735 and bounced. It has touched .80 on the 28th and 29th and Jume as well as July 9th but has not broken below that. That is what I am talking about. Like the Flash Crash of 2010, they drove it to the flash crash low, then bounced it but then ultimately tested (and broke) the flash crash low. Just saying that if you break .80 to the downside, there is going to be trouble. I suspect they will try ot drive it to that Flash crash low of .735 to test that to see if it will hold.
    10 Jul 2012, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/OYIp6K

     

    AELB acknowledges receiving 2 Condition plan from Lynas.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Nh7dpg

     

    AELB will move on the TOL issue this week.
    10 Jul 2012, 07:39 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Great news. Thank you.
    11 Jul 2012, 07:37 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I'm surprised this isn't getting bigger news. I didn't see it over on rare metal blog. Isn't this the end of the waiting we have all been waiting for? The final decision? Am I missing something?
    11 Jul 2012, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Folks have been disappointed so often before, its easy to distrust any word from Malaysia. Even so, LYC went up over 8% yesterday. We'll see if there is any momentum left tonight.
    11 Jul 2012, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that link TB. I am sure it contributed in part to the Lynas gain of 8.4% last night on the ASX -- closing @ AUD $0.90.
    11 Jul 2012, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, this continues to be a stock driven by news headlines.
    11 Jul 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7908) | Send Message
     
    Or lack of.
    11 Jul 2012, 07:29 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Took profits on MHREF (up 48.6%) and UAMY (up 54.7%) today, 2 more of the Raid list.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1900) | Send Message
     
    Great plays TB. You really are the micro cap King in my book!
    11 Jul 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » We'll see how I do on the rest of the Raid. I anticipated the process taking 60-120 days, so it is very early yet...
    11 Jul 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Here's a novel idea:
    Build a rare earth processing plant in the Middle East where the money is.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    11 Jul 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/MmFyC7

     

    This is a media source which sometimes pops up on my search engine for Lynas. Rarely does it present anything worthwhile. This particular little missive seeks to reassure us that the TOL will be forthcoming this week from the AELB, and then the author proves his ignorance by stroking the Malay politicians and hinting that Lynas will ultimately locate its future processing for Duncan there as well...

     

    Reality is that Lynas has already announced the location of their Duncan processor, in Australia.

     

    Garbled reports are filtering out (just responded to one on Yahoo) that are being misinterpreted as stating that the "TOL has been issued", whereas the truth is that it has not been "formally delivered" to Lynas.

     

    LYC dropped like a stone on the ASX last night, and could well trade below $.80 again here today, probably because the earlier announcements from Malaysia have been reinterpreted to mean we still have no idea when or if the TOL will be given over to Lynas so that they can commence operations.

     

    The chaotic news out of Malaysia continues, and should be treated as suspect at all times.
    12 Jul 2012, 07:20 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7908) | Send Message
     
    Maybe the Malays are making a killing on the stock market by manipulation of the stock. Just saying......I have lost faith in all govts.
    12 Jul 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5054) | Send Message
     
    On Aug. 8th a REE bourse will open up in Inner Mongolia.
    http://bit.ly/Leena5
    13 Jul 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Chinese have been hinting at this since before they started building their Cartel. I view it as a natural offshoot of the Cartel (every good monopoly needs a captive exchange to control pricing and sell to the outside world, after all).

     

    Lifton mentioned this likelihood a few years back after a conference in China (Hong Kong? Operating from memory here...)

     

    I believe the Chinese will be succesful with this, and we will start to see these numbers repeated across the investment ladscape as "gospel".

     

    The Western rare earth startups and our governments that might have taken strategic steps have missed their window. Now they will become appendages to the Cartel, at least through 2020+.
    13 Jul 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7908) | Send Message
     
    Hey OG, .Another DeBeers. Wonderful. Buying REEs by the carrot. LOL
    13 Jul 2012, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5054) | Send Message
     
    There is talk this will bill will die in the Senate, TB:
    H.R. 4402: National Strategic and Critical Minerals Production Act of 2012 (On Passage of the Bill)
    Number:
    House Vote #468 [primary source: house.gov]
    Date:
    Jul 12, 2012 (112th Congress)
    Result:
    Passed
    Related Bill:
    H.R. 4402: National Strategic and Critical Minerals Production Act of 2012
    Introduced by Rep. Mark Amodei [R-NV2] on April 19, 2012
    Current Status: Passed House
    This was a vote to approve or reject a bill or resolution.
    13 Jul 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree, I believe it will be blocked by Reid.

     

    We are likely to see a similar version (with fewer bones intended for blue state Senators) in 2013, after the likely loss of the Senate by the Demicans.

     

    For this Bill to have accomplished the goal of shoring up the North American strategic material agenda, it needed to happen 2 years ago when it was first proposed (in similar form).

     

    At this point the DOD (prime player here) is currently satisfied with its quiet deal with MolyCorp in which MCP promised them 7kt of rare earths (including virtually all their production of some of the more critical elements). This deal occurred last year, essentially when MCP announced the abrupt discovery of a rich HREE deposit near Mountain Pass (details still unknown).

     

    Without a panicked DOD pushing for HR4402 with all their influence, it lost momentum.
    13 Jul 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    i'm sure u guys read what all is piggybacked in that bill?

     

    they could get it passed without the other stuff
    13 Jul 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Most of those add-ons were done in an attempt to get individual politicians to vote in favor of the Bill. As usual with this Congress, every bill becomes a christmas tree, festooned with pork for the more powerful. Overall, the result just tips the scales too much in favor of the originators of the Bill in the House (ie, Republicrats), which just can't be allowed in an election cycle like this one.

     

    Without the DOD push and the danger of being accused of being soft on National Defense, the Bill is DOA in the Senate.
    13 Jul 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    There may be a chance but not a certainty that Senator Reid will make the effort to alter the House bill more to his liking. I think that because most of the workers at the Molycorp Mountain Pass Mine are Las Vegans.
    http://bit.ly/PXgeq1
    http://bit.ly/OHLww9
    15 Jul 2012, 07:21 PM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2096) | Send Message
     
    They don't eat meat? :-)
    15 Jul 2012, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3322) | Send Message
     
    Correctamundo. In that den of iniquity known as las vegas, doncha know nearly everyone lives on a nutritious diet of "Wish-N-Chips"?
    16 Jul 2012, 02:12 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As a freshly re-elected Senator not up for another turn in the barrel until 2016, Reid will be less focused on personal pull and more with meeting the national party agenda. I do, indeed, expect the usual committees to grab the House bill and start building a Senate version, but it will somehow fail to come to a vote before the upcoming elections, and will certainly contain much which would kill the more annoying aspects for their environmentalist allies.
    16 Jul 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I agree in the sense that it is often a puzzle to watch the infighting going on between the environmental or yuppie wing of the party and the labor or worker wing of the party. The president represents the one side and the senator represents the other.
    16 Jul 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1502) | Send Message
     
    Please, y'all --
    We Northern Nevadans never say the words Ha**y R**d in polite company. Regardless of what he says on his website (yes, like much of what he says there is or once was a small kernel of truth to it) most of us outside the Vegas orbit believe H*R* only cares about 3 things: (1) Feathering H*R*s own retirement and extended family (2) repaying the casino owners that get him re-elected every term, with just about every county north of Vegas voting against him, and (3) dutifully being a party man. Chicago politics got nuthin' on good old H* R*!

     

    Now, because this is an INVESTING site, not a political forum, let me add that Nevada has such mineral riches that even H*R* may occasionally vote to help clear the mining deadlock imposed by the Feds, who still own 80% of our fair state. If there is any inkling of that happening, you will want to have done your research early on some of the huge, medium and very small miners who derive much of their income from mining here. (If NV were a country, we'd be the 3rd-largest gold producer in the world.)
    17 Jul 2012, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    It seems off topic sometimes to have to pay attention to politics when researching investment opportunities. But since politics is often a means to a desired end, I think its worthwhile to make note of it when the rare earths bill is at a critical stage.
    It will take some more politics to open up Nevada's mineral wealth.
    18 Jul 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    TB..your in a dream world...

     

    as bad as they both are, they would pass any clean bill that addresses a problem, but not one loaded like this. And, yes it was a republican bill all the way. They had no intention of forming one that would pass. Same as voting on healthcare 33 times ?
    13 Jul 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sometimes we seem to talk at cross-purposes, LT.

     

    For instance, why laud the same group of pols for the idea that they would probably pass a strategic minerals bill (if it were only kept pure and discrete) when in fact the same group of pols very eagerly made certain that no such bill was created. This bill enjoys bipartisan support in the House, yet it will die in the Senate (where it will however create still another Senate SB version, itself loaded down with more pork by the ever-creative Senators running things). Should a compromise be sought between the two versions, I doubt this process will go far, particularly given the major battles regarding taxes, health care, and the debt ceiling which are about to break.

     

    Note the number of Democrats and Republicans who carved out something they can bring back home and crow about (bluedog Democrats are prominent among the group). Hence my commentary that it was designed to suit the re-election needs of numerous politicians, some of them Democrats from resource-rich states, and thus a christmas tree rather than a clean bill about nothing but strategic minerals like rare earths. The 2 prior attempts to launch a strategic mineral bill both failed from lack of support, although those attempts were Republican-backed efforts launched into a Democrat-controlled House.

     

    Since even marginal rare earth projects are indeed very rare in the United States, the only way to cobble together a long list of politicians to support the initiative was to add in the much more controversial provisions to "accelerate" (hard to believe that 30 months to get a permit comprises "fast", LOL, but it does in Washingtonspeak) drill permitting. This is a major topic, and it outraged the various environmentalist lobbies. This elevated the simple bill to a major "call to arms" on both sides. This outcome was almost certainly one expected by the Bill's sponsors (on both sides of the aisle). Boring business as usual and bipartisan accomplishments are not what garners headlines and reelection donations.

     

    Obviously the HR bill IS a Republican bill (its a Republican-controlled House).

     

    This is one of those Bills which represent real change and important national requriements which, unfortunately, could not be passed by a leftist Democrat-controlled government, and will almost certainly also not be passed by a Congress split by deep ideological differences and political agendas. Just as the original strategic stockpiles were created by Republicans and subsequently sold off by Democrats, I see history repeating iself in this case. Should the Democrats retain control of the White House and/or Senate, this will continue to be a contentious and crucially important piece of national business which languishes because of political infighting.
    13 Jul 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3322) | Send Message
     
    You are gifted with sight, TB...
    13 Jul 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9608) | Send Message
     
    Which brings up the subject of Voldemorte's 2008 campaign promise of "Line-item Veto."

     

    Back in February, 2012, the house did pass a bill:

     

    "House Republicans put aside their usual antipathy toward President Barack Obama on Wednesday to give the president, and his successors, the line-item veto, a constitutionally questionable power over the purse that long has been sought by presidents of both parties.

     

    "A minority of Democrats joined in casting a 254-173 vote in favor of allowing the president to pick out specific items in spending bills for elimination. Currently, the chief executive must sign or veto spending bills in their entirety."

     

    Of course, this bipartisan bill has yet gain traction in the senate.

     

    Here's why:

     

    "The main opposition came from members of the Appropriations Committee, which is responsible for putting together the annual spending bills. They argued that the bill upsets the constitutional separation of powers balance in favor of the executive branch, and that recent efforts to curtail so-called earmarks in spending bills make the line-item veto unnecessary."

     

    Hogwash! This is to protect politicos "personal (or district) interests."

     

    http://huff.to/NmBt2J

     

    Should I even mention "lobbyists?"
    13 Jul 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4647) | Send Message
     
    Now that is one we can agree on !

     

    in seriousness though...did they really give him line item veto ?
    I can't believe the house did that....if they did, it really pressures the senate.
    That is one bill that I hope passes.
    13 Jul 2012, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... Line Item Veto for a President. Can't happen without Amendment & nobody is going to give it to the Executive. The Executive is responsible for spending money as Congress directs and enforce laws Congress approves. Both done with a little bastardization.

     

    Congress can avoid doing their prescribed duties but they have no power to give them away. Even if they want to.
    13 Jul 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3322) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you on this DR. If the country wants to go this route, then it should be done legitimately, lawfully, and fully out in the open: Amendment, debate, ratification. It's a very big deal and deserves a FULL airing. It would be a badly-needly instructive exercise for the public as well...
    13 Jul 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >481086 ... I'm not a big fan of line item veto. It put too much power into executive hands and I don't care what party holds it. There is too much potential to it to turn into a weapon. Best solution would be elect people that take governing seriously ... I know, I'm a dreamer, but it has been known to happen once in awhile.

     

    Much as I think this is an important topic ... now I must wonder how this relates to REE. Better pursued over on "QuickChat".
    13 Jul 2012, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9608) | Send Message
     
    DRich: Agreed. An ammendment would have to occur. Which makes me think that Voldemorte's 2008 campaign promise was political chicanery and deception at its finest.

     

    Back then, in 2008, I was unaware that this campaign promise would be unconstitutional. And I do not recall McCain pointing this fact out.

     

    However, and nano chance that the senate would pass the bill, would it not be the next step to create an ammendment?

     

    Of course, I could eat an elephant that just ate a ton of fools gold in one gulp ;-)
    13 Jul 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4428) | Send Message
     
    >Mayascribe ... I don't think anyone really knew or understood what Obama was talking about in 2008. No one ever demanded clarification and I am pretty sure he understood that a real Line Item Veto was unconstitutional (Thank Goodness). My best guess is as described in this link from 2010. A suggestion list of "earmarks" to sequester upon review.

     

    http://wapo.st/NzVy5c
    13 Jul 2012, 06:33 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/MtPB5S

     

    Alessandro Bruno is telling us how he thinks the new RESTART bill will work according to his view of American politics...

     

    I strongly disagree with him, and agree with Gareth Hatch's commentary below the text of the article.
    14 Jul 2012, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5054) | Send Message
     
    China's budget to stockpile ree: 6 Bil Yuan/$949 Mil USD
    http://bit.ly/P9KqNp
    16 Jul 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Japan's illegal smuggler source just dried up...
    16 Jul 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7908) | Send Message
     
    Wow OG, they can manipulate the price of out going with the new rare-earth trading platform and manipulate it by sending them to the strategic stock pile and not letting them make it to the trading platform. I think they have covered their bases very well here.
    18 Jul 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13444) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New Concentrator this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    17 Jul 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
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