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tripleblack
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Let's see, Veteran (Vietnam era), Commercial Artist, picture framer, industrial engineer & corporate executive (once upon a time), small business owner and operator, Ayn Rand fan, Libertarian (and no, its not a synonym for "Republican" or "Conservative"), and history... More
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  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    How much is an apology worth to Lynas after all of the damage was done?

     

    "In its website, http://bit.ly/NtELkS, Mtoday News Sdn Bhd apologised over articles it had published previously, claiming that the Lynas plant may be unsafe to the people.
    We apologise for these publications as such claims do not have a scientific basis. The regulatory review of the Lynas plant has been thorough and diligent," it added. – Bernama"

     

    http://bit.ly/O7uKHP
    17 Jul 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    <*chuckle*>

     

    Let's see if that gets as much covrage as all the garbage that has come before.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Jul 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The lawsuit may have something to do with this.

     

    Also, a fearful tone is entering the national debate in Malaysia. Some of the more knowledgeable are openly worrying about the effect this sorry affair will have on future investment of foreign capital in Malaysia...

     

    LOL, it will be a cold day in hell before I back another Malaysian project, and I have begun putting a jaundiced eye upon multinats investing there as well.

     

    Although rare earths do, indeed, hold a primary place in China's geopolitical plans (thus far executed with great success), it would be unwise to think that other areas are NOT equally important and likely to spill over into China's "sphere of influence" in places like Malaysia.

     

    Anyone hesitating to invest in direct Chinese investments should give a full weighting in their due diligence to countries like Malaysia as well.
    17 Jul 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Also, see comment at the bottom of this page:

     

    http://bit.ly/M6IwK9
    17 Jul 2012, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    Re-post from previous Concentrator re HR 4402...

     

    Please, y'all --
    We Northern Nevadans never say the words Ha**y R**d in polite company. Regardless of what he says on his website (yes, like much of what he says there is or once was a small kernel of truth to it) most of us outside the Vegas orbit believe H*R* only cares about 3 things: (1) Feathering H*R*s own retirement and extended family (2) repaying the casino owners that get him re-elected every term, with just about every county north of Vegas voting against him, and (3) dutifully being a party man. Chicago politics got nuthin' on good old H* R*!

     

    Now, because this is an INVESTING site, not a political forum, let me add that Nevada has such mineral riches that even H*R* may occasionally vote to help clear the mining deadlock imposed by the Feds, who still own 80% of our fair state. If there is any inkling of that happening, you will want to have done your research early on some of the huge, medium and very small miners who derive much of their income from mining here. (If NV were a country, we'd be the 3rd-largest gold producer in the world.)
    17 Jul 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Let's hope this is the start of positive momentum for Lynas Corp! We've waited long enough.
    17 Jul 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Doesn't look like it. Dropped 2.82% downunder on wimpy volume.
    18 Jul 2012, 08:15 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    BTFD. This time it might work.
    18 Jul 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Massive underwater REE discovery:

     

    http://bit.ly/LvOOkY

     

    I'm pretty sure this has been discussed before; the limitations and expense of underwater REE mining, and still years away, but this discovery could be a Japan jackpot.
    19 Jul 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I am very skeptical of these claims. The major finds on land have been extremely rare (essentially a few spots in China, plus Mountain Pass in the US, and Lynas in Australia). Otherwise its the usual story, rare earths are not rare, but commercially viable concentrations are EXTREMELY rare, particularly those which contain the highly sought after elements.

     

    Deposits similar to those talked about have been found on land, but because the concentrations of rare earths are so low (those with a 1.5% of TREO, total rare earth oxides, are considered relatively rich), even large aggregate tonnage is meaningless because the cost of extraction is so high. Given that these are NOT deposits located deep on the bottom of the Pacific Ocean...

     

    The comparison becomes very iffy.

     

    The most practical method of extraction for land deposits involves large (often very large) pit mines and much earth moving. It has taken us about 50 years to figure out how to drill oil in relatively shallow water. We are still working on figuring out how best to do the same for deeper water...

     

    It follows logically that it will take us about the same investment in time, money and creative energy to figure out how to pit mine the sea bottom. So this looks like it might be a project for our great grandkids in the late 21st century, if we're lucky.

     

    PS: Anyone who has ever studied how mining works will know that controlling the shoulders of the pit (or shoring up the tunnels) is a prime concern. How will this be done beneath the crushing weight of trillions of tons of sea water? Oil drillers usually don't have this problem (they are just poking a soda staw in a pressurized pocket far underground)... Miners frequently struggle to control small underground streams that seep into their mines - LOL, that problem will be magnified beyond counting under the sea.
    19 Jul 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10803) | Send Message
     
    TB, DG: Greetings. Freya and I have been watching this for the past few years. Nautilus Minerals http://bit.ly/NnrzQ6 is developing some promising techniques in this area.
    20 Jul 2012, 04:57 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Does anyone have an opinion of Hastings Rare metals (HAS)?
    It seems they have a pretty good rare earth mineral profile. Quest & Tasman are better.

     

    Since the rare earths miners are at all time lows, I thought I'd revisit some of the others and see if they are worth purchasing. Don't you think now is the time to buy?

     

    I own LYC, QRM, TAS, NTU

     

    here is a recent investor presentation. http://bit.ly/NVLsgC
    22 Jul 2012, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jimp: I have started digging into Hastings a bit more, given their recent headlines. I'll try to condense the data into a comment or two soon...

     

    LYC is getting hammered downunder right now, down 4%. No particular news (other than good news about the Malay luddites lining up to apologize). I'm thinking we will see a constant stream of "down" for the foreseeable future, celebrating another day-week-month-year of waiting for Malaysian bureaucrats to hand over the TOL.

     

    Its about time for Lynas to come up with an update and start preparing shareholders for the new funding search (which I suspect is lacking only the certainty of actual possession of the TOL to be launched).
    22 Jul 2012, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB. On TMR, Hastings has one of, if not the highest basket price. The only issues is the dilute concentration 0.21% and small resource. HAS is 0.11 tonight in Aussie land.

     

    With Lynas and basically the whole sector, I'm tired of feeling glum.
    22 Jul 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas is down more, now off 6.3% downunder. No apparent news behind it, but I wonder if we have another flash crash being engineered...

     

    The background news in the sector is mostly positive (some very positive) right now.
    22 Jul 2012, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LYC update: Now off more than 8%, volume is climbing, and its closing in quickly on the A$.70's again.
    22 Jul 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Could be down on an Asia selloff. I am lurking below .80.
    23 Jul 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If its a general selloff, the other stocks I track overnight downunder weren't part of it, just Lynas...
    23 Jul 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Australian shares on the S&P/ASX 200 were down by 1.67 per cent today. Big mining stocks were hit with BHP Billiton dropping 2.58 per cent and Rio Tinto dropping 3.5 per cent.

     

    However, you are right, the drop is nothing like the 7.6% drop on Lynas... So what are the possibilities? Pure manipulation, news that the permit will be further delayed, whispers on an offering? It seems the more I know about a stock, the worse I do :(
    23 Jul 2012, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IF we are seeing the first signs of an event horizon from the upcoming funding, yes, it could be a stock offering. I would estimate the size to be in the A$150million range. I DO NOT expect a stock offering, however, since I believe they can get much better terms from the Boyz in NY or Tokyo instead.
    23 Jul 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    http://tinyurl.com/64q9vr
    23 Jul 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    FPA, That is the question and it pertains to the whole market.
    23 Jul 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    stopped at .81. Very close to the .80 mark.... if you break that there is nothing but air till .73. Still thinking of both the Flash Crashes and how they acted after....
    23 Jul 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://yhoo.it/ObGiM7

     

    Positive background buzz...
    23 Jul 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Wow, MCP hit hard today aswell.
    23 Jul 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Sector rotation continues. (Above any macro market moves).

     

    NYT ran a re-hash of their Lynas hit piece (utter trash, as usual, plus dated and inaccurate)...

     

    Piling on.
    23 Jul 2012, 01:15 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I don't know what they are doing, but I have an LYSDY order in at .81.
    23 Jul 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    No joy on my order... Will try another day.
    23 Jul 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/LKrwba

     

    Lynas conf. call coming up with quarterly results...

     

    Frankly, I would not expect any surprises. More cash burn... probable completion of phase 1 (actually, this one BETTER be a positive outcome)... possible announcement of plans to add more funding to shovel to corrupt Malay politicians, er, "corporate operating expenses"... news about Malawi (saving grace, they had not yet invested much there)... plans for Duncan (more details might be mildly entertaining)... perhaps even an update on the state of mind on our long-suffering customers and how long they are likely to remain on the string, waiting for product...
    24 Jul 2012, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, some meandering thoughts brought on by loads of recent research...

     

    Those who have followed this REE/Strat. sector for a long time recognized the recent sector rotation which has occurred. Sector rotation is similar to the good news that lifts all boats, except that when it occurs within a sector and we see the big fish rotate OUT of that sector, it LOWERS all boats. In our case this event followed the implosion of the greater alt-energy sector. Right or wrong, we are lumped in with the solar, wind, and moonbeam power guys. There is some linkage, of course (much of the hype surrounding rare earths revolves around their potential role in manufacturing hybrids, wind turbines, solar panels, and other exotic altenergy items). I would quibble that MOST of the applications for rare earths and strategic minerals lie outisde that troubled sector...

     

    But we have to face facts. We are, indeed, the baby tossed out with the bath water.

     

    Now, sector rotations are usually very ponderous things. It often starts with a lot of concerted moves by whales (GS, C, MS, JPM, HSBC, ad nauseum), but it rarely is quick and merciful. The process includes spasmodic aftershocks. It can even continue AFTER the underlying news which might have propelled the change reverses course...

     

    This explains a friendly news environment overlaying continued ratcheting down of share value - once set in motion, the whales ignore short term shifts in the winds.

     

    Sector rotation also features smaller players, the true believers who followed the whales into a new pasture, but who had more of a commitment to the underlying story than the impassionate megainvestors. I feel that it is these more stubborn players who are now slowly averaging out of our sector. They follow their usual whale, but require more time and losses to finally make up their minds.

     

    What remains will be a much smaller and thinner sector, but one which, like all sectors sitting on the bottom, will feature true "blood in the streets" bargains.

     

    It may take a year or two before the effects of the whales moving on from our sector heal. Ours is a unique situation - NOT in that we are the first sector ever abandoned by a pod of whales executing a sector rotation - but in that our sector has very little modern history upon which to base fundamental analysis. When our first wave of producers (Lynas, MCP, GWM, etc) abruptly start producing products and shipping orders, and generating the beginnings of the sector statistics beloved of fundamental analysts everywhere, we can anticipate a disproportionate amount of attention.

     

    Until then, the sector rotation chugs on, sucking down to bedrock and leaving stray whisps of silt to drift over the bottom. We all know the various timelines of the early producers, and can read the headlines. For now, it is time to wait.
    24 Jul 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2382) | Send Message
     
    Nicely stated. New to reading here, and hoping to get educated over time and before the next sector rotation "in." If one wanted to avoid risk of "government interventions/shakedow... is there anywhere to go?

     

    From a little CNBC "exposure" I thought maybe MCP, but http://www.molycorp.com shows a lot of dots in Asia. Of course I can't tell from the map where the significant production is or will be say in the next 2-3 years.
    24 Jul 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Great post with a good consideration of things not normally considered.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Jul 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi WTB. Like the Axion Conentrator, these REE Concentrators stretch back with information starting in 2009. Some reverse-reading will yield tons of informative links and analysis.

     

    MCP: A synopsis looking ahead gives us a timeline which starts with current low level production from MCP. Their Phoenix Plant at their Mountain Pass mine is under construction, and will, in the end, be a 44kmt/a plant. I believe their current timeline for completing Phoenix (Phase 1, or 22kmt/a) will run over-budget and be at least 6 months late (perhaps more). I believe they can start production in 2013.

     

    About 7kmt/a of their production (and virtually all of the production of the more critical elements aside from basic magnet elements and the common industrial elements like Ce) is set aside for the US DOD. This means that they will be looking to sell their additional 37kmt/a production to commercial customers. MCP has opened a sales office in Tokyo to handle the customers they anticipate in that part of the world.

     

    MCP also owns a small magnet maker located in the US which they purchased from the Japanese, and they are heavily involved via their new acquisition, Neo Materials Technology, in the Chinese magnet industry.

     

    For our purposes here we focus on investments ex-China, so there is some controversey regarding MCP's new China connection. I consider it unlikely that short or medium term the costs of MCP production out of Mountain Pass will become cheaper than what Neo/MCP's magnet making partners in China can buy locally - and it would make little sense to sell into the domestic Chinese market when they will have ready access to the ex-China (ROW, or "rest of world") markets where prices are higher (perhaps much higher).

     

    Logically, Neo/MCP will continue to manufacture what they have been making in China from Chinese raw materials... The strategic difference will be that by purchasing Neo MCP gains access to a massive store of proprietory rare earth magnet technology, some of which will be essential as they go forward producing high purity elements in America which have NEVER been processed commercially here before. MCP as a company has old roots in the REE business, but its important to remember that when it was last operating decades ago there were no real markets for most of the rare earths, particularly the more exotic metals now receiving so much attentioon. China may have a near monopoly on producing the 17 rare earths (plus yttrium, which is usually included), but they have a TRUE monopoly on the knowledge base for running many of the elements through a commercial AMP (advanced material plant). MCP gained access to the knowledge base they needed now, and MIGHT one day be in a position to sell metals to magnet maker partners (Magnequench, etc) in China via Neo.

     

    LYSCF: Lynas is the operator of the Mount Weld mine, which has the potential to be larger than MCP's Mountain Pass mine. Its overall TREO levels (total rare earth oxide) are very rich, and given the size of the overall project, represent a huge opportunity. They are currently pit mining in an active way, and their phase 1 processing plant at Mount Weld has been up and running for over a year. They are currently processing and stockpiling concentrated ore for eventual shipment to their LAMP (Lynas advanced material processor) in Malaysia... When the Malaysians eventually let them have the TOL (temporary operating permit) needed for Lynas to crank up the LAMP.

     

    Lynas SHOULD be the first to market with new production of rare earth products since Mountain Pass was shut down decades ago (MCP's current production comes from the re-opened and partially reconditioned original plant, which is making about 4kmt/a). Whenever the Malays let go of the TOL...

     

    Lynas plans to produce just the 2 most common elements (cerium and lanthamum) plus a mixed metal valuable for magnet makers. For the more rare elements they will be looking to setup a tolling agreement with a third party, at least until they can finalize their plans for their Duncon deposit (part of the Mount Weld project). That deposit contains richer levels of the more rare critical or heavy rare earths, and Lynas plans to construct a $600million processing plant for them near the Mount Weld mine (timing still uncertain).

     

    GWMGF: Great Western is a much smaller operation than either MCP or Lynas, but is an advanced source for specialty alloys and parts via is LCM (Less Common Metals) facility in the UK, plus its GWTI (Great Western Technologies Inc.) at Troy, Michigan. It also is refurbishing a fascinating hard rock monasite mine (the only such mine in the world) in South Africa. Like MCP, GWM has formed an alliance with a Chinese company (its long time supplier of rare earth feedstock for LCM) for a 75/25 split of the new processing plant planned for their Steenkampskraal mining complex in South Africa. Production was planned for Dec 2013, but I believe it is likely to slip to 2014, perhaps late 2014. I also feel costs will run higher than budgeted...
    24 Jul 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Well put, TB.

     

    I'd also lump in junior PM miners.
    24 Jul 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • doubleguns
    , contributor
    Comments (7891) | Send Message
     
    Nice update.
    24 Jul 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Trip: Just wanted you to know that a good friend of mine is considering bailing on GWM (and AXPW), and I pasted your summation of the REEs into an email reply.

     

    Thanks! You saved me a moment, or two, even though it took me about two hours total to reply to him. He's in at around 40 cents, and I advised him to keep the sock drawer closed (with both stocks).

     

    I guess he's a pretty good pal!

     

    ####

     

    I am seeing a head and shoulder formation with GWM.
    24 Jul 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Some points of clarification:

     

    a) the entity that MCP acquired from a Japanese owner makes alloys, not magnets;

     

    b) Magnequench (formerly a division of Neo Material Technologies, now owned by MCP along with the rest of Neo) makes magnetic powders (not magnets) that are sold to polymer-bonded (not sintered) magnet makers all over the world. The newly named Molycorp Magnequench has powder production facilities in Tianjian, China and one in Korat, Thailand.

     

    c) MCP now owns the Chinese two rare-earth processing and separation facilities previously held by Neo - Zibo Jiahua Advanced Material Resources (which focuses on light rare earths) and Jiangyin Jiahua Advanced Material Resources (which focuses on heavy rare earths).
    25 Jul 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Gareth. Clarification is always good.

     

    Santoku America was described at the time when MCP purchased them:

     

    "The acquisition provides Molycorp with the capability to immediately begin manufacturing and selling rare earth alloys for the production of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets (used in electric and hybrid cars, advanced wind energy turbines, and many high tech electronics and applications) and samarium cobalt (SmCo) magnets..."

     

    Neodymium is one of the primary elements produced by MCP at its Mountain Pass facility. At the time of this purchase there was much discussion over how MCP might translate this purchase into meeting its "mine fo magnet" pledge to investors.

     

    The purchase of Neo appears to be a more substantive answer, leading to this:

     

    MCP has entered into a magnet manufacturing alliance with Mitsubishi, Daido, and the co-inventor of the FdFeB magnet, Dr. Masjto Sagawa, utilizing technology licensed from Intermetallics, Inc. and FdFeB powders (primary coomponent in the FdFeB magnets). The facility for the jv is in Nakatsugawa, Japan.

     

    Thus with these strategic moves, MCP has bridged the gap in its business plan and the jv seems poised to meet its "mine to magnets" promise.

     

    Gareth, as I understand it Neo (now MCP) only owned 30-40% (roughly, based on memory here) of Zibo Jiahua Advanced Material Resources and Jiangyin Jiahua Advanced Material Resources. It has joint ventures with them.

     

    Thanks for keeping me straight, Gareth. I know I get confused at times. Its great to see you.
    25 Jul 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Correction: Should read "Dr. Masato..." Sorry for the typo.
    25 Jul 2012, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    Hola tripleblack...

     

    The confusion concerning Santoku America is understandable, given the specific language used in the announcement. I do recall that at the time there was discussion concerning the possible construction of a greenfield magnet facility in the USA. The alloys produced at the former Santoku facility (assuming they are still being produced there) can indeed be used for the production of Nd-Fe-B magnets - but by the customers of that facility, not the facility itself.

     

    Even if it had the equipment and facilities to produce sintered magnets from those alloys, MCP would need to have a license from Hitachi Metals to make and to sell such magnets in the USA. Hitachi has not given out new licenses in years, and is unlikely to do so any time soon, given the approaching expiration of existing licenses, and their own plans to build a Nd-Fe-B manufacturing facility on the East Coast next year.

     

    Interestingly, and as you pointed out, MCP eventually partnered up with others in the magnet-making realm, focusing on potential processes that apparently do not require the use of the Hitachi Metals basic composition patents.

     

    My understanding was that NEO (as was) owned 95% of the Zibo facility, and 90% of the JAMR facility.

     

    Keep up the good work with these Concentrators - I know of no better source of useful market-related REE info online :-)
    25 Jul 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, I remember the talk about building magnet plants here - including some from Hitachi. As I recall, Hitachi's patents are expired or expiring, though of course they retain their proprietory knowledge base. I discounted at the time that Hitachi would let that knowledge go cheap to MCP, which was an early misconception back when MCP was a high-flyer...

     

    I have not checked on their newest plans to build in the US - how solid are they? I still see their recent move to locate a major research and development center in China as an important indication of their future plans...

     

    Could you double check your info on the 2 ex-Neo Chinese facilities, though? Everything I remember was that their association with Neo was joint ventures, with less than 50% shares held by Neo. This seemed to me at the time to be in line with the usual Chinese control issue in this sector. I once looked seriously into going into Neo stock, but that information was among the data that made me go elsewhere. Now that MCP has Neo I am trying to get more depth on their divisions, since I am long MCP.
    25 Jul 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    There has been little new information on Hitachi Metals' plans to set up shop in the USA.

     

    The % ownership numbers mentioned above for the 2 facilities in China can be found on page 4 of the Annual Information Form filed by NEM on March 31, 2011 - you can get previous NEM documents from SEDAR if you now search for Molycorp instead of Neo Material Technologies.
    26 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks! I dug around their latest paperwork, and I believe I was thinking of some of their jv Performance Materials division operations in China. I had them confused with the 2 processing plants (they are located in the same province, and have the region's name in their company name). The 2 processors are indeed listed as "wholly owned". Good news and now I'm wordering if they can keep their share of the Chinese export quotas going forward...

     

    Thanks for your patience.
    26 Jul 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Gareth Hatch
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    It's all good :-)
    26 Jul 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Picked up some more LYSDY this morning.
    24 Jul 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No trouble getting it below $.81 today...
    24 Jul 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    I'm liking QRM at 1.20. I realize it probably will go lower. But this was a $8.00 stock, and we are further along now. One day I believe this stock will be in the $30.00 - $50.00 range.
    24 Jul 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » QRM is still one that I put in the 2nd tier, though it has lost ground within that group (AVL, Alkane, Frontier, perhaps Arafura, TAS, etc...)
    25 Jul 2012, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    TB, in what way has QRM lost ground compared to the other 2nd tiers?

     

    Do you think Lynas or MCP is a better buy at this level?

     

    Thanks
    25 Jul 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AVL and QRM were both flying toward $10, but lost momentum and have delayed their timelines (which was inevitable in my view, and one reason I traded them for profits but did not invest). I consider both to be a potential buy if we see signs of the sector recovering, but not before, and it may be 2014 before we see those signs.

     

    Frontier has prospects, and TAS has potential strong government support, while Alkane has a lot more than just rare earths in the works... Arafura is a takeover candidate, imo, otherwise liable to be stuck between $.20 and $.30 for a long time.
    26 Jul 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Taking profits on SRSR and TAMO.

     

    Adding LYSDY today...
    25 Jul 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Trip: I don't have level 2. What's the bids/asks looking like for LYSDY?
    25 Jul 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They are wide right now, which happens when LYSDY is plodding along at a low volume level like now.

     

    Ask is $.83 and Bid is $.79. I believe plenty of shares are available in between/near $.80 if one is patient... Particularly patient about filling any larger order at a low bid.

     

    I am very heavy Lynas, so I am just adding a few thousand shares here and there as the prices appeal and can average me down a few pennies.
    25 Jul 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Trip. I'm juggling between LYSCF and LYSDY, as to which to buy. I see a double when LAMP opens.
    25 Jul 2012, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here are my milestones right now, WAG estimates, however:

     

    TOL is delivered to Lynas, and initial shipments leave WA (uncertain date, I guesstimate between tomorrow and Nov 2013): $1.20-1.30

     

    LAMP produces first run of successful customer samples (+6-8 weeks): $1.60-1.80.

     

    Keep in mind that the TOL limits the production from the LAMP quite a bit, and the issue of the POL (permananet operating license) will become the focus probably just as much as the TOL has been over the past year. Lynas will begin to get some cash flow from the LAMP under the TOL, but it will NOT be sufficient to stop cash burn (much less create profits). I believe Lynas will need to go back to the Boyz in NY or Tokyo for more money Q4 this year. Lynas says that their current restricted funds are sufficient to finish building out Phase 2, and I believe they probably are, but those funds are restricted and can't be used to keep them afloat while they work through the TOL process (and begin the POL process).
    25 Jul 2012, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9584) | Send Message
     
    Greatly appreciate the input, Trip.
    25 Jul 2012, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You're welcome.

     

    Coming to grips with the Malaysian calendar is at least as frustrating as figuring out the Mayan version... Every trade in Lynas stock involves factors similar to trading options and having to compute the effects (and value) of time erosion.
    25 Jul 2012, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • DRich
    , contributor
    Comments (4421) | Send Message
     
    >tripleblack ... It's nothing that you don't know already, but I thought this graphic might be interesting just the same for what it does & doesn't show about REE production.

     

    http://bit.ly/LNZ0Ko
    25 Jul 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey, thanks for the fun graphics, DRich. Buckyballs...

     

    Most of the pictures and numbers make some sense, but some of their numbers are a bit dated, and others simply wrong. The weight of the water in Lake Mighican is a LOT more than 10million tons, for instance (more like 542,750,000,000 tons, according to my quicky estimate). So Baotou needs to clean up their act, but not THAT much. Note that the map numbers under "Production" are close for China, but show big numbers for Australia, US, etc which are simply not there yet (and some won't be there until some time after 2015).

     

    "REO Supply" I suspect should read "ROW (Rest of World) Supply".

     

    The 2011 peak prices were unsustainable, and have retreated a great deal since then, though I believe the current prices are a bit low due to the knock-on effects of establishing the Chinese REE Cartel. Some elements will probably see increasing prices soon as the brief flurry of smuggled supplies are rapidly absorbed, and the smuggling is greatly reduced by the new regime. Some elements (particularly the more common Ceriium and Lanthanum products which will comprise the bulk of production from both Lynas and MolyCorp) will once again become inexpensive industrial minerals with a long list of uses.

     

    An excellent source for current information comes from Gareth Hatch and Jack Lifton's site:

     

    http://bit.ly/rdl62B

     

    Gareth occasionally visits us here, usually to try to sort out some garbled comment I have made. For the record, this is a data source that everyone investing in this sector should become acquainted with.
    25 Jul 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Washington Post is out this morning claiming small activist victory in High Court's rejection of Lynas' media injunction filing: http://wapo.st/QkWMVO
    26 Jul 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/PuLtXI

     

    Rare metal blog is hot today. First item deals with South Korea's big buy of rare earths. Matamec is cashing large checks from Toyota...
    26 Jul 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    I thought the blog was hot the other day, too. It included an article about Alkane sending its material to Japan for processing. One of the commenters on the article wondered if Lynas could do the same while it sorts through their Malaysian quandary. That got me wondering about any validity to that scenario.
    http://bit.ly/LRpWEk
    26 Jul 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I used the Alkane story as the lead for this Concentrator...

     

    I believe Lynas COULD send some of its concentrated ore to Japan, but I don't think the Japanese have the capacity to seperate much beyond the 1kmt level Alkane has written up. There are several more small operations in Japan which could handle similar amounts, but that won't earn Lynas the money it needs, and the last thing they want to do is undercut the LAMP.
    26 Jul 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Malaysians are probably reading about the deals that Matamec and Alkane and others are making. Maybe they are wondering if they can rework their deal with Lynas with the examples of those other deals in mind. They must be stalling for a reason besides their fear of radiation contamination.
    26 Jul 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I have always believed it was just their natural desire to please the nice man from the Tong who promised not to break their knees if they went along with the Cartel's plan...
    26 Jul 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that too....
    26 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Cramer rejected MCP again last night, said it was in a sector (presumably altenergy) he didn't like, re-issued a "Sell" recommendation.

     

    Those cramercontrarians out there take note (and yes, you know who you are): Time to Buy.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • magounsq
    , contributor
    Comments (967) | Send Message
     
    tb

     

    I'm not your everyday cc (cramercontrarians)...but I am a ccc (cramerconstructivecri... think his MCP was a SWAG...

     

    He might learn something under the radar reading you and Sir John!
    26 Jul 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    SRSR is up bigtime today with over 3 1/2 million shares traded so far. Wonder why.
    26 Jul 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm taking profits. Someone (perhaps the Chinese company Sarrisa did business with almost exactly 1 year ago) is focused on Niobium, I would think...

     

    Using those profits to add Sandstorm...

     

    Took profits on MHREF today on the news about Toyota, another of the Raid stocks, also TIE...
    26 Jul 2012, 02:15 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    It was running between $0.06 and $0.08 in July and August of last year. Its high today was a measly $0.0275 . Sure wouldn't mind if it spiked higher tomorrow.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, and no coincidence that the highs coincided with the deal they cut with the Chinese. Expectations were out of line with reality back then, though...

     

    I can see it as a $.035+ stock short term, and maybe $.05 medium term...

     

    Out past 2015, it should do well, if we are lucky.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP LAUNCHES PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FOR STEENKAMPSKRAAL RARE EARTH PROJECT

     

    http://bit.ly/Mo7R2b

     

    +++++++++++++++

     

    What worries me hear (and I could be mistaken) is that if I recall correctly during the last confernce call they mentioned several times that while they would have all the components of a PEA an "official" one would not likely be forthcoming as they know what they have, etc. If this is correct, why choose to go forward now, particularly after "full" funding was complete. Will they be going back to the well, and need this as the basis for either additional funding via debt or further dilution? Months ago I would see only the positive here, given no news on the construction with the Chinese partner etc, I find it more troubling than positive a this time.

     

    Best,

     

    Matt
    26 Jul 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I view this as something which reflects "compartmentalization" in their plan. Look at what Lynas has done. They have cash, and then they have "restricted" cash, set aside for the sole purpose of building out Phase 2.

     

    GWM is probably doing the same thing, setting monies aside for building out the joint venture plant. In fact, if I was their jv partner, I would insist upon it. GQD has 25% stake in the plant, once its built, after all.

     

    Of course, I have been saying from the get-go that they were underfunded and running late.

     

    I suspect that they will, indeed, be needing additional funding about the time they can show real progress buidling out the jv plant. It will be at that time (in about 8 or 9 months, looks like) that they will be looking for more funding.
    26 Jul 2012, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On second thought, I am now wondering if perhaps it isn't also part of a defensive plan against the danger of a buyout offer from a competitor...
    26 Jul 2012, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • dallasmatt
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    Trip, Or to the complete other end of the spectrum, are they now looking to be bought out, maybe the GQD is a mess etc, and they are trying to extract maximum value?
    26 Jul 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I doubt that, dallas. Its too early for a plant that hasn't broken ground yet to be a disaster.
    26 Jul 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I don't think anyone feels the plant plan is a disaster, but I took Matt's comment to mean he wonders if GQD's commitment remains firm. GQD says very little (good or bad) so its hard to know if things are smooth or held up right now. I think the silence is just what goes with a Chinese partner. I doubt shareholder updates are their top priority.
    26 Jul 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't recall GQD every issuing media releases about the plant. All that came through GWM.
    26 Jul 2012, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Matt,
    At this point I cannot see a rare earth miner consistent enough with their claims and timelines to put much faith in them. The only reasonable measurement at this point is action. Moly has to show me how the new company fits together; Lynas has to get the ore processing; GW needs to put (GQD) hardware on the ground; and most of the others need to show financing IMO. I still like the sector and like Lynas, but this is a difficult time for all of these stocks. They are now longer term plays with risks to balance against the current share prices. Lynas is still the best resource IMO and thus my pick. I have generally stayed quiet in agreement with most of the blog. The disagreements are just the same as earlier concentrators
    26 Jul 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Solid analysis, chi.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:04 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Here's a summary of ree current events:
    http://bit.ly/LQkIxw
    26 Jul 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yep. That headline annoys me, though...

     

    Linking "Rare Earth Prices go down" with the investigation implies something they can't (and don't) prove in the following article. Reality is that prices are indeed down from their ridiculous peak in 2011, but are showing clear signs of firming up again recently (though NOT of spiking up to the 2011 highs).
    26 Jul 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think prices could jump if new supply was taken up by further technologies. This is my long term expectation for most REE's. But until we see proof of that through contracts or an increase in the ROW REE market I see prices as stable at this stage. BTW, the same comment applies well to nearly all the Strategic Metals IMO.
    26 Jul 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe we are seeing cerium (for instance) firm up but still at a low enough price to where MCP's water filter starts to make sense again. Some industries temporarily went away from cerium (polishing compounds, for instance) even though it was the superior product, due to costs. Now they are back, so the price may be lower but the market is more solid.

     

    New uses are popping out of the R&D centers with great regularity.

     

    I agree, including the comment about the strat's. Uranium remains the joker in the deck, and for that one I believe we will be running a brief period in which Japan and much of Europe strives mightily to shut down their nukes (and fail) but the attempt still haunts U prices...

     

    Until it stops. Then we could see a lot stronger pricing, and political pressure to open up projects (some of which overlap rare earth deposits in a big way).
    26 Jul 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, Seeking Alpha is broken again today, hard to navigate, all my pull down menus are kaput...

     

    Anyway, Lynas has broken through to the $.78 region, looks like capitulation has begun. New year low for LYSCF seems imminent...

     

    No real news (which is bad news after all this time, of course) propelling this, unless some insiders smell order cancelations and broken deals... Again, no news about this other than vague wanderings have I seen...

     

    Due to the lack of news I am looking at these prices in the $.70's as a buying opp. Adding...

     

    Adding UAMY...

     

    Adding USMN...
    27 Jul 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas sets new 52 week low, $.775...
    27 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas share price at this level essentially values the LAMP at $0.

     

    Fear and loathing heading into the release of the last quarterlies seems the most likely scenario.

     

    In past week many commentators (particularly in Australia) were blaming the malliase in Europe... This mis-match demonstrates the fallacy of that argument.
    27 Jul 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    DenverDude over in the comments section in this article on MCP has an interesting opinion about the viability of extracting rare earth tidbits from fly ash.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    27 Jul 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » First time I've encountered "The Neuman System". I did not pursue his link, no time, but the recovery rate is not surprising. Rare earths are truly everywhere, in minute amounts. Even assuming Neuman could get $600 worth of rare earth from a ton of fly ash (doesn't seem likely, does it?), I suspect the extraction and separation costs would be about $1000.

     

    LOL, I remember reading 2 years ago about a scientific breakthrough by a team of Japanese scientists. At the time some Japanese companies were very concerned about the increasing cost of palladium... After over a decade of blue sky research, the scientists were able to create synthetic palladium sure enough...

     

    From platinum.

     

    The cost was astronimical, needless to say, and the logic was simply not there.

     

    The rare earth story at its most manic has its share.
    27 Jul 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Rare Metal Blog interview with Nick Curtis for those that are interested....

     

    http://bit.ly/MbAww7
    27 Jul 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Aqwert.
    27 Jul 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Yes, that's a "Must See" interview.

     

    Here's a link to something else interesting.
    http://bit.ly/OlMrXK
    New to me was where this story says: "Besides Malaysia, Lynas obtained a licence to operate a factory in China."
    28 Jul 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Seems like it might be time to wake up, the last NC interview blew my socks off with the mention that Lynas has plans to vertically integrate by pursuing (RE) metal production downstream at Mt. Weld…

     

    (We will pursue) "an integrated operation down stream here in Australia... obviously we think metal production is a critical factor for us, we think, developing potential downstream is important to us and we've got a few plans."

     

    Could be an interesting week...
    29 Jul 2012, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I took that to be in ref to the upcoming Duncan deposit development and the construction of the matching processing plant. That is not really new news, but a logical conclusion to what we already knew.

     

    This also limits to some extent speculation of the future role of a new Seimens facility to be built near the LAMP in Malaysia.

     

    My read is that everything still hinges on the TOL (also prominently mentioned in NC's recent interview). Should we see Lynas' quarterlies published and the CC's conducted with our current limbo fog still smothering the company, a negative tone will be inevitable. Conversely, should we see the TOL finally delivered, shipments of ore initiated, and the LAMP preparing for first feed, a positive tone will occur, and forward looking statements yield much more traction in the markets.
    29 Jul 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Great interview, this should budge the price up a little...

     

    http://bit.ly/MVbb5U
    29 Jul 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Toly, that link just takes us to the Hot Copper entry page.

     

    If its the interview with Nick Carter by Tracy Weslosky of ProEdge Consultants, its the one I was referring to above (and yes, its on Hot Copper in at least two or three threads, though it will take some digging to find it).

     

    The ProEdge site is here: http://www.pro-edge.com

     

    Lynas is a client of ProEdge, btw.

     

    If its is the interview with Tracy (talking as a "rare earth expert") that is a little more recent, I believe, and near the top of the LYC listings on Hot Copper.
    29 Jul 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Here's Part 2 of Tracy Weslosky's interview with NC.

     

    http://bit.ly/Q0jrni#!
    29 Jul 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • toly
    , contributor
    Comments (191) | Send Message
     
    Hi TB, the interview I am talking about is the interview with Pro-Edge Consultants CEO, Tracy Weslosky by Lelde Smits for the Finance News...

     

    Also, part 2 of the NC interview has been released and it is quite informative, talking about demand destruction and supply stabilization...
    29 Jul 2012, 10:45 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No effect downunder, LYC is flat tonight, a fraction over A$.75.

     

    Tracy has a long series of interviews with rare earth clients and other notables like Lynas' Nick Curtis, GWM's Jim Engdahl, Byron King, Stans' Robert MacKay, Ellis Martin, David Morgan, Gene Arensberg, etc, etc.

     

    I'm surprised they aren't listed on her company's website, but a search for her unusual name yields loads of links.
    29 Jul 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » OK, effect of the infomercials has been absorbed by the markets, net...

     

    Mild minus. Overhang of likely lack of substantive news (ie, whereforeartthou TOL?) for the pending quarterlies and CC...

     

    Meanwhile, I have been looking over the REE/strat sector, currently bumping along the bottom of the trench...

     

    Arafurra has pierced its long hug with $.20, now trading below $.18 and digging a deeper groove in its personal crater. Chinese backing for the recent funding notwithstanding, this one is still seeking support, and finding little. Leadership vacuum is involved (like many juniors, management team is disproportionately important)...

     

    EMMCF muffed its chance with its tungsten facility (now mothballed too long and offered with very weak hands) while it chased scandium will o the wisps (resulting in current broken contracts and legal issues). Broken stock of a broken company with a broken future, despite the best efforts of any famous pundits frantic pumping). I sold out of this one for a 20% loss (part of my Raid list) and now I am monitoring it primarily from a faint curiousity as to how the sad story ultimately resolves. Anyone considering investing should be CERTAIN they research their legal issues, as well as their financial situation.

     

    GMO is hovering just over $3. I believe it MIGHT see a surge on news over the next 3 months... I would sell it around $3.91, though...

     

    GWM is slowly sinking, as impatient investors move on, disqueted by lack of physical signs of plant construction, combined with the quixotic initiation of a belated PEA...

     

    GDLNF is showing signs of faint strength, stock price ticking upward from time to time. Personally I believe this one is a long shot bet ultimately dependent upon just how much independence Greenland demonstrates from Denmark's apron strings... Local politics in the tiny Greenlander population will make the difference over the next 5 years...

     

    IAALF is hovering near a "Buy" which I would call at prices of $.09 and below. I have been selling at $.13-.14 on the trade...

     

    Lynas is dead in the water in the high $.7x's... and low $.8x's...

     

    MRO has been surging since I started accumulating under $23... Trading around $26-27...

     

    MHREF I took profits when it spiked a few weeks back, bought back in as it sank back below $.19, now watching to see if its channel will hit $.22...

     

    MCP is a longer term hold, I anticipate a profit taking around $36 over the next 4 months, and another around $40 Q1 2013... Holding preferred with a goal around $9x.

     

    NATUF is part of the Raid list, and I plan to take profits just around $.30.

     

    GOLDF is one that I rate a Buy at current prices, with a Sell for trading purposes at $.14 (roughly a double). This is one that I am accumulating longer term, horizon 2016+...

     

    QREDF is a Buy at current prices, for a trade at $.13+.

     

    QRM is weakening and seeking support, which I believe it will find around $1.17. It might be a suitable Buy at that point for a trade (sell around $1.58)... To hold I would suggest a minimum horizon of 2017+...

     

    SNDXF is a Buy at current prices, particular if it dips below $9. I have been accumulating this streamer as a play on Gold.

     

    SRSR is a Sell for short term traders who bought recently at half the price. I suggest taking the double, though there is a chance of course that it could do even better. For those seeking to hold it longer term, look for buys around $.016-, and a horizon of late 2015+.

     

    HREEF is a Buy at current prices around $.50, for a trade around $.74 (which I recently executed and am now "reloading"). This is a very risky and manipulated stock, not for the less-experienced investor imo, and not a good long term hold, also imo...

     

    TAMO is a Buy at current prices around $.12-.14, for a trade around $.18-.20. I have been accumulating this one for a long time, trading around the core as I build the low/zero cost shares and take profits.

     

    TAS is a Buy at current prices. I have a small core holding in TAS, but like to trade it out at $2.10 to $2.45. I believe this one could be a winner out past 2015 or 2016 for true gamblers, primarily due to its strong political support from the EU and Sweden...

     

    UAMY is a Buy at current prices, and I am accumulating it Long. For traders it presents profit taking opportunities in the mid $3.xx's.

     

    USMN is a Buy at current prices under $.06, for a trade at $.075+. Sell all at $.09+...

     

    UCore UURAF is in a similar place to that of Arafurra, digging a hole in its very own crater at $.27x. Long shot for a buyout sometimes post 2016, imo...

     

    URRE is a Buy at current prices in the low $.5x range, for either a Trade around $.80, or a longer term hold anticipating renewal of the U markets in coming years (I estimate 2015-2017)...
    30 Jul 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Fantastic highlight list, TB, thanks so much!
    30 Jul 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    TB: Might want to reconsider (HREEF):
    "Stans Energy Disputes Jogorku Kenesh Committee Decision"

     

    "... has initiated legal action in Kyrgyzstan against the decision of the committee in the Jogorku Kenesh, represented by Rep. Badykeeva that has demanded that the Company’s Licence Agreement #3 be annulled in contradiction to the earlier lawful approval by the State Geological Agency".

     

    http://bit.ly/T0TVim

     

    Currently trading $0.439.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 11:17 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » AH! Thanks HTL, just found that one myself!

     

    Consider the list amended. I have been watching for it to drop below $.50 and seek a bottom, now its one to put on "hold" for a while...

     

    I will probably still take a gamble, these guys are really slick handling Ktown politicians, but best to look for a real bottom from this...
    30 Jul 2012, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    That was what I was thinking. I was even considering that rather than my usual TA, my just treat it as you originally informed me - a new-driven stock. So I was thinking just wait for news that this is resolved.

     

    ??

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This one is utterly a "newswhore" stock.

     

    Note that it has already started to recover from the shock, over $.47.

     

    You nailed the short term low today, I suspect, though it might collapse near the EOD...

     

    I am waiting to hear more, Stans is always very "talky"...
    30 Jul 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    LYSDY was outselling LYSCF -- unusual. Wonder what that means

     

    Sarissa is having another busy day. Hit a high of $0.0285 today.
    30 Jul 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those .025+ periods are good selling points, imo.

     

    LYSDY volume has been low. Easy to be volatile (relative to normal) these days.
    30 Jul 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    (LYSCF): Het a near-two-year low today, $0.775. That takes us back to 8/25-8/26 $0.76 and $0.77 respectively.

     

    And the chart, as would be expected, is uuuuuuugly!

     

    HardToLove
    30 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Lynas: They have tried trotting NC out to talk it up, no joy, and their pet promoter/interviewer and "rare earth expert" was equally ineffective. Upcoming quarterlies will feature details about ongoing cash burn (and those with calculators and a calendar will quickly start to guess how soon they will have to go back to the well for more money to fund their very own featured role in the tragic soap opera "As the Malaysian Turns").

     

    LAMP is now effectively a total loss, as far as the company's stock value is concerned. That SHOULD be nonsense, of course, but its hard to judge such things when faith in the Malay political class is totally absent (from all appearances, that comment would also apply to how they view themselves).

     

    This is also the CC where Lynas should have to field a LOT of tough questions about Malaysia, cash burn, Malawi, how to fund the LAMP black hole, and other negatives. Now that so much has been built, the carrying charges to finance immense quantities of "nothing" becomes a concern. Mount Weld has been running all-out and piling up mountains of ore and concentrate, but how long can they keep up with the pretense that "the TOL will arrive tomorrow"?

     

    I expect this will NOT be a fun CC, and the stock values are pricing in this likelihood.

     

    Now, everything changes IF the TOL arrives and they can get this part of this ridiculous passion play behind them...

     

    Only that will make the upcoming CC forward looking rather than a negative event.
    30 Jul 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Quarterly Report is out for period ending 30 June 2012

     

    They have shut down Mt Weld for early maintenance and apparently will not re-open it until Lamp is operational.

     

    Total cash at the end of June of 205M represented by unrestricted cash of 124M plus restricted cash of 81M which is available only to fund capital expenditure associated wit the Phase 2 expansion for the concentration plant at Mt Weld.
    30 Jul 2012, 07:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » All in line with expectations, FPA. I had hoped they would be smart enough to shut down Mount Weld before this...

     

    I wonder if they will do the other obvious thing, layoff the 400+ Malaysians currently watching the paint dry at the LAMP. Probably WILL NOT do that, political concerns, showing also just how little real control they have over that situation...

     

    Time to hit the ASX and start downloading announcements I guess...
    30 Jul 2012, 07:37 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/Oykl8i

     

    Quarterly report.

     

    Crap, I'm getting an error message for the financial pdf page 1 (where all the goodies are). If anyone has it intact, let me know...
    30 Jul 2012, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As of June 30 they had A$124.3mm unrestricted cash on their books. I am willing to grant that their plans for the $81.1mm in restricted funds earmarked for Phase 2 costs will work...

     

    They will ultimately have $50mm on their books of funds set aside to cover the AELB reserve requirement, which would mean they have $74.3mm net to operate from.

     

    I am estimating that their operating expenses for Q3 will be lower than Q2 due to mothballing Mount Weld [wild guesstimate] to the tune of 50%. This means their Operations will cost them $6.0mm for July, and $6.1mm for August and September (assuming they keep the plant mothballed that long, which would be a worst case scenario). In that case they would burn through $12.1mm for operations in Q3, plus $1.5mm for interest and "other", plus $6.2mm for the additional capex mentioned at the end of the pdf: Total for the Quarter of ($19.8mm). I am estimating that they will make about $1mm from interest, etc, netting a Q3 cash burn of ($18.8mm).

     

    $74.3mm cash less $18.8mm burn = $55.5mm

     

    I would anticipate the cash burn to remain constant at these levels for Q4, so...

     

    $55.5mm less $15.8mm burn = $39.7mm at eoy Dec 31...

     

    I believe, however, that Lynas will not let their coffers sink this low (dangerous with so many potential problems still ahead, not to mention the costs of starting up the LAMP and returning Mount Weld to full operation).

     

    I believe they are already examining where they pull additional money from, and I expect them to make it happen toward the middle or later part of Q4 2012. Amount at least $100mm, perhaps $150mm depending upon how things are going by them in Malaysia.

     

    These estimates all assume worst case that Lynas is STILL waiting for the TOL come Q4. Obviously, they may need to alter plans depending on the actual arrival of the TOL.
    30 Jul 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph L. Shaefer
    , contributor
    Comments (1501) | Send Message
     
    NC may be a very clever fellow (nearly as clever as he thinks he is) but he's a lousy poker player. One thing he might consider, TB, is just that -- lay off the 400 Malaysian workers, tell the world that Lynas is looking at other alternatives since clean "altenergy" (but foreign) companies are not welcome in Malaysia, "enter into discussions" with other processors and refiners, etc. Will the stock take a dive? Yep. WIll their margins shrink if they actually have to ship, refine and process elsewhere? Yep. But better to look the other guy in the eye and place a real bet than fold every hand and die by a thousand cuts. This second course leads to certain failure; the former at least holds the possibility of a different outcome.
    31 Jul 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I agree. The scenario need not be all that dire for Lynas, even short term...

     

    Halt the LAMP and layoff the local workforce. Cut a tolling deal with the Japanese, Germans, or Rhodia. They need to do this to address the limits of the LAMP in any event (why leave those other 13 vaulable elements in the waste?).

     

    News of the immediate cash flow will largely cushion the blow of the Lamp closing. As a fundamental analysis line item, the current share value already values the LAMP at $0, so this move may even comprise an up.

     

    If they can also announce closing the $600million financing deal to build out Duncan and its HREE processing plant in Australia...
    31 Jul 2012, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Monitoring LYC downunder...

     

    I don't believe I have ever seen such a non-event as the release of these quarterlies. LYC is trading at anemic volumes flat as a board, and even the discussion on Hot Copper is muted and rambling (and largely misinformed as to how the financials are looking).

     

    Brand Y is reporting what is being said on Hot Copper...

     

    Shut down of Mount Weld is being greeted with confusion, some think its a good thing, others wonder if its not an indication that management thinks the TOL might take a while yet...

     

    I believe it has more to do with cash burn than with TOL watching.
    30 Jul 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    What's the expression? You're a trader unless you're underwater, then you're an investor? I guess I'm a Lynas investor...
    30 Jul 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    Lysdy up 8% in Oz tonight :)
    31 Jul 2012, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good morning. Looks like some word was released that rejuvenated things a bit...
    31 Jul 2012, 08:31 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Anyone get a hold of or word from the cc transcript, yet?
    31 Jul 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just looked. It will be posted up later today here:

     

    http://bit.ly/xKDiaV

     

    Reassuring things which came up on Hot Copper from NC:

     

    Expects to get the TOL "soon".

     

    First feed expected in August.

     

    Lynas won't need to raise more capital "short term".

     

    Lynas will try to avoid another capital raise "if possible".

     

    Lynas will seek another method rather than share dilution.

     

    NC believes the Mount Weld shutdown will cut their operating expenses from A$18.1mm to around A$8mm.
    31 Jul 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Very much appreciate the updates TB. Invaluable.
    31 Jul 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Jakurtz,
    On the ASX the latest Lynas filing is the 14 page pdf of the quarterly report: http://bit.ly/NG7xAd

     

    The transcript has not yet been posted but when it is you should find it here: http://bit.ly/xKDiaV
    31 Jul 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Thanks MJ for the link to the transcript. I read the filing last night. I had expected them to be in worse shape on a cash burn basis and concluded that was part of the sell-off as well as knowing the REE prices would not look good for Q2. I see the prices seem to be leveling off in those regards and there should be some respite in Q3. They seem to be in good shape in my mind to last on cash into Q1 2013, but I imagine they will work out the details of the raise this fall. It will all come down to what REE prices do and how commodities as a whole perform in H2 for where they go from here -- I believe.
    31 Jul 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » REE prices shot up this past week. The prior basket price analysis from Lynas had prices for their majority production (the elements they are actually going to seperate and sell, which is to say, 2 lights and a combo of 2 used for magnets) go up about 25% in just a few days. I expect this trend to continue for all but the 4 elements Lynas will be producing, in which case their production will tend to suppress prices somewhat.
    31 Jul 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    I added another bloc of LYSCF @ $0.83 to my current underwater long position in Lynas.
    31 Jul 2012, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Thanks TB. Is their a sight to track the prices?

     

    Could you clarify. I think your statement reads the elements Lynas is producing shot up 25% and you expect that trend to continue "for all but the 4 elements lynas is producing"

     

    So although the 4 elements they are producing shot up last week, because they are producing them their supply will weigh on future price appreciation, but only for those 4 elements while other REE's continue to rise?

     

    Thanks for clarifying.
    31 Jul 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I hope those new shares lowered your average a good deal, MJ.

     

    Jak: Pele Mountain (GOLDF.PK) has a good Asia Metals list they keep current for rare earth prices FOB China: http://bit.ly/Hxnj8V

     

    Lynas was just a few days ago listing Cerium at $20, for instance.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, about my complex sentence regarding rare earth pricing...

     

    Prices right now are utterly controlled by China, so watching the FOB China prices (which even Lynas uses as a guideline) is the thing to do. Price changes are occurring because of the wild gyrations China is going through to create their rare earth Cartel.

     

    BUT everything changes when Lynas goes into production. At that point it will be producing large quantities of Cerium, Lanthanum and dymium (mixed metal combo of Neodymium and Praesodymium for making magnets). Probably about 5kmt/a during the TOL, ramping up to 11kmt/a under the POL, and finally ramping up to 22kmt/a when Phase 2 comes fully on line. Those quantities will affect the ex-China market prices for those 4 elements (but NOT the other 13 elements still sourced almost 100% from China, which will not be processed and sold by Lynas, at least at first).

     

    Ex-China prices will start to diverge from FOB China and Domestic China prices, and presumably will drop somewhat as some competition enters the marketplace. This is all guesswork, of course, since China will still hold a very dominant position and will be able to control the overall supply and prices should they choose to do so.

     

    This topic has been exhaustively discussed in earlier Concentrators, if more history, scope and background is desired.
    31 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (5806) | Send Message
     
    I also purchased another block of LYSDY at .83. to my underwater position in Lynas :)
    31 Jul 2012, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    TB, are you still feeling that LYSDY is a wiser choice than LYSCF at the same SP?
    31 Jul 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The reasons why I prefer LYSDY:

     

    1. I have closed several accounts with brokerages which did NOT charge high fees for Australian listings. The ADR fees for LYSDY are very small.

     

    2. In the event that Lynas should declare a dividend, the ADR's will funnel those dividends to me. LYSCF will probably see the MM keep those dividends since Lynas will not be paying dividends to the pink sheet listings and the MM hold LYC to offset their trading in LYSCF.

     

    3. I get to vote my shares. No votes come with the pinks.

     

    4. Lynas has a legal obligation to support the ADR shareholders - no such requirement for the pinks.

     

    Advantages for the pinks:

     

    1. Higher volume and a more liquid market.

     

    2. Not dominated by institutional investors, so the shares are not so affected when they hover around $1 (point at which some institutions require the sale of a stock to meet their trading rules).

     

    3. No ADR fees, and if your broker has not added exchange fees for Australian stocks, you save a few pennies.
    31 Jul 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    ungawah,

     

    FWIW and in case it helps you, I duplicated a January post below I made re: the differences between LYSCF and LYSDY -- as explained to me by a senior international trader at Fidelity. Also note, that I have very different information from Tripleblack in that Fidelity confirmed to me several months ago and AGAIN today that the Market Maker does NOT have an option to retain any future dividends which may be distributed by Lynas. They may have a small transaction fee and applicable tax withholding applies -- but the dividend must be passed through to the shareholder even if held on the pink sheets. Here is the additional information I had posted before:

     

    http://bit.ly/QXp836

     

    "The bottom line for me personally in the short term -- is that in this market I weigh heavily volume liquidity and that means I have been adding LYSCF to my holdings. As you can see its volume today is 3x that of LYSDY. Several other considerations are mentioned below:

     

    I recently had a deep dive conversation with a trader on Fidelity's international desk about the differences between LYSCF (which represents 100% of my current Lynas holdings) and LYSDY the more recent ADR listing for Lynas -- and this is what I heard:

     

    1) The spread differential between the two securities (on average) has not been a huge key driver in his opinion.

     

    2) The huge differential in volume liquidity is something some investors weight heavily in choosing one security over the other.

     

    3) Trading costs do carry a big differential because LYSCF trades are largely manual and the middlemen brokers can charge up to a $50 settlement cost in the transaction -- whereas LYSDY ADRs carry less expensive settlement charges because the transaction is more automated.

     

    4) An extra cost to factor into the LYSDY ADRs is an annual 1-2 cent maintenance charge per share annually. For shares which cannot net out this cost from dividends -- the investor sees this direct debit passed through on the account holding the ADR annually.

     

    5) Companies at their option can facilitate a conversion of shares held from one form to another (and from one listing exchange to another) by charging anywhere from 1-4 cents per share for the trouble of doing the conversion. His historical observation was that the amount charged tended toward the higher range when the individual share had a relatively higher price. He did not know if Lynas was facilitating this or not.

     

    I personally decided not to pursue this any further -- because in this volatile market I place an extraordinarily high premium on volume liquidity (#2 above) in case I want to get out quickly on any position I hold domestically or internationally (Friday's volume for LYSCF was 326,000 shares vs. 73,000 for LYSDY.) So for my own portfolio strategy (at this moment in time) it makes more sense to keep adding to my LYSCF shares. But, I thought some of the details above may help others in arriving at their own conclusions for their own portfolio strategies.
    31 Jul 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks MJ.

     

    I have actually experienced the dividend problem personally, but it was long ago. Good to hear that the practice is no longer legal.
    31 Jul 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.

     

    I figured this was a useful subject to bring up since I suspect there will be more activity in Lynas stock soon. Starting in January, I started buying only LYSDY.

     

    While I have seen 10:1 or more of LYSCF to LYSDY, I was surprised to see the ADR outsell the pink on big volume late one morning last week.
    31 Jul 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I think NC is a banker first and last. I think he is getting firm on Malaysians (based on the Duncan approach). But he chose to cut Aussie jobs first (Mount Weld maintenance) before LAMP because of the larger cost savings and as an olive branch in LAMP discussions.

     

    That's all well and good IMO, but if Malaysia does not move on the issue trouble will deepen in any case. I think the problem with just threatening to walk from LAMP is the Malaysian population would be drawn to the opposition. Such a move would show a weaker commitment to Malaysia by Lynas and would empower the opposition. The current approach saves more costs (producing the "better than expected" quarterly)and keeps the dialogue open. That said, it won't matter if the Malaysian government fails to lead for much longer.

     

    Lynas' problem is this is not a poker hand IMO. If they threaten to pull out of Malaysia, they are better off just doing it. I don't see a bluff working. I also feel walking from Malaysia without any production risks bankruptcy. I hate Malaysia and have nothing good to say about it, but I am enough of an investor to know I'm married to LAMP as long as I own Lynas.

     

    I still feel these political issues will be reoccurring themes in REE stocks. Stans is now realizing it (very predictable); and others will follow no matter how much blog BS claims otherwise. There is just too much politics with Thorium, environmentalism, Third World Sensitivities, ect.. The issue was inevitable since the ROW supply is so small, nascent, and currently in such sensitive areas. Just MO.
    31 Jul 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » URRE was up 50.94% today, probably based upon reaching an agreement with the Navajo Tribe.

     

    http://bit.ly/OA5F8M

     

    I closed out my position at $.80 for a 21.2% profit. This was one of my Raid stocks. I retain some shares to form the core of a longer term holding...
    31 Jul 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    As I recall you didn't have to hold it very long for that pop - very nice play TB.
    31 Jul 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I had it about a month. At first it drifted down, but then had the good day today. Hit a program which I might have wished would wait until tomorrow (EOD spike), but it met the general 20% plan for this sequence of trades. Of course, that spike might subside a lot tomorrow, too.
    31 Jul 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Here was my last comment on URRE from yesterday, prior to the news and spike:

     

    URRE is a Buy at current prices in the low $.5x range, for either a Trade around $.80, or a longer term hold anticipating renewal of the U markets in coming years (I estimate 2015-2017)...
    31 Jul 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Raid update:

     

    Stock....Oct 2010....Jun 15....Buy....Sell....H...

     

    ARAFF... 1.20......... .18....... .18...... .25.. In @.18
    (Sold @.219, up 21.7%)
    AVL....... 3.40........ 1.39..... 1.36.... 2.51. 120 days
    (Waiting for buy target...)
    DCHAF.... .45.......... .35....... .33..... .40...In @.33
    (Sold @.50, up 66%)
    EMMCF... .07 ...........07....... .07..... .10. In @.07
    (Tracking down 28.6%)
    GDLNF.... .56.......... .41....... .41...... .55.. In @.41
    (Tracking down 2.4%)
    GMO...... 3.71........ 3.38 ......3.17... 3.78. In @3.17
    (Tracking down 6.0%)
    GWMGF.. .38.......... .41....... .41...... .64. In @.41
    (Tracking down 23.9%)
    HREEF ......50......... .79....... .55...... .94. In @.55
    (Sold at .64, profit of 16.4% - NOTE: Reloading soon for another cycle).
    HUDRF..... .80......... .21....... .21...... .40.. In @.21
    (Sold at .25, profit of 19.0%)
    IAALF....... .14......... .14....... .12...... .16... In @.12
    (Sold at .14, profit of 16.7%)
    LYSCF.... 1.30......... .99....... .99..... 1.30 ..In @.95
    (Tracking down 11.6%)
    MCP...... 29.00..... 20.00.... 20.00... 30.00.. In @ 20.00
    (Tracking down 12.9%)
    MHREF..... .27......... .21..... ...21...... .40.. In @.189
    (Sold @ .29, profit of 53.4%)
    NATUF...... .20......... .22....... .22...... .30... In @.22
    (Flat)
    QREDF..... .30 ..........14 ........11...... .16 ...In @.11
    (Tracking up 27.3%, may take profits tomorrow...)
    QRM....... 4.42........ 1.39..... 1.59..... 2.11 ...In @1.59
    (Tracking down 19.5%)
    TAS......... 1.50........ 1.50..... 1.44..... 2.45 ...In @1.44
    (Tracking up 3.5%)
    TIE .........20.00 ......11.18 ...11.04 ....13.00.. In @11.04
    (Sold at an average profit (various tranches) of 4.1%)
    TRER .........85.......... .60....... .60 .....1.00... In @.55
    (Sold half of position at 33.3% profit - Tracking 2nd half of position down 23.3%)
    UAMY ........50 ........4.52 ......3.18 .....4.00... In @3.18
    (Sold at a profit of 26.4%)
    URRE...... 1.25 ........ .66........ .66....... .84... In @.66
    (Sold at a profit of 21.2%)
    UURAF...... .62......... .29........ .29....... .40... In @.29
    (Tracking down 10.3%)

     

    Overall average: Up 11.9%
    31 Jul 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    awesome
    1 Aug 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Full transcript of Lynas CC now posted on SA: http://seekingalpha.co...
    31 Jul 2012, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    what the heck is going on with MCP and REE? wow...
    no news so far. I understand MCP breaking the IPO price but I am not sure what is wrong with REE....

     

    ps MCP due to report earnings Aug 2 , I think
    1 Aug 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/Oo2tzq

     

    MCP...maybe this going into earnings?
    1 Aug 2012, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I'll take China's side at least till I hear the call. Moly is suppose to have a call showing they are near completion on Project Phoenix. In stead we now expect a new "big dream" on the coming call. Maybe it works out that way, but history has taught me to doubt. Many juniors use bigger promises to distract from current setbacks. Moly has been mostly promises since it's reemergence. I'd wait for the call. Until then this is a risky trade IMO.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    MOLYCORP SHARES HALTED FOR VOLITILITY

     

    they probably should halt REE as well. That is still trading and is down 18%
    MCP was down 17% at one point and now is only down 5% at the halt
    1 Aug 2012, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    MCP resumes trading
    1 Aug 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Da Boyz were playing some games this morning... Trying for a Flash Crash? Could be. Select stocks (including MCP, in our sector) have had wild whipsaw action. I suspect looking just at MCP, we will see a 30-40% spike, resulting from huge sell orders which were canceled in nanoseconds, but not before triggering a wave of stops and an avalanche of cheap shares.

     

    Earnings will be reported after the bell Aug 2, and I anticipate MCP will handily beat the low $.08 street concensus. They could double that, frankly, or triple it, depending on just how much extra product they produced during the period of running the completed section of Phoenix (since shut down so that construction could resume)...

     

    Moly also has their quiet new deal with the DOD, who is buying up all their early production of critical and heavy rare earths. MCP is able to process a full spectrum of elements...

     

    I am just speculating here. Before the trading halt, I was seriously considering adding some MCP common...

     

    Now I am looking at the Preferred...
    1 Aug 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Added some MCP-PA, though I missed the ultimate low.

     

    Those that snagged $14 MCP shares today get the prize. Volume was through the roof for a few seconds there.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Hope it works for you TB. But Moly has a history of strong fund communication and modest market communication IMO. Those big sells were funds. The rebound could be a good short term flip. But I don't like this price action just in front of a call. Just my caution.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Five NYSE stocks were halted (volatility circuit breakers kicked in) this morning: Corelogic Inc, China Cord Blood Corp, Kronos Worldwide , Trinity Industries and MolyCorp of course.

     

    Quants are restless, and no stop order is safe from the predators...
    1 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    Night Capital Group had a screwed-up machine trade come through this A.M. that halted many stocks. 100 now being investigated. NYSE h00m0ns saw it a stopped trading on *very* unusual volumes, in some cases 1000% above normal.

     

    Pisani says it might be related to a new dark pool NIT is instituting. Might be NITE's fault our one of their customer algorithms.

     

    (NCG) down big,

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    BE CAREFUL OUT THERE:

     

    There Are Reports That An Algo Is Going Wild, And Wreaking Havoc On The Stock Market Right Now

     

    http://read.bi/R8j7oF
    1 Aug 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    I just seen that...anyone know what is going on ?
    1 Aug 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    See my comment above.

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Here's more from Bloomberg: http://bloom.bg/NaLr4b

     

    Funny how all of those in charge love to say "I am not aware of anything." LOL
    1 Aug 2012, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17250) | Send Message
     
    "I am not aware of anything."

     

    You sure that wasn't a quote from an SEC staffer? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    1 Aug 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    with the rise of REE prices, DCHAF is looking better. Today's action puts it above the 200dma. A real feat for anything rare earth related!

     

    maybe that is an encouraging sign for the rest.....
    1 Aug 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Those that bought at my Buy target for DCHAF of .33 did well. I would recommend selling at least a major fraction at these prices, or certainly if a double occurs.
    1 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    There is little info here except that gold coin sales are down 50%. Buying is now by wealthier people.

     

    http://bit.ly/N4qBow
    2 Aug 2012, 05:03 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IBC reports Utah drill results, and they are poor:

     

    http://bit.ly/N1enij

     

    Drop in share price today is a reaction to this bad news.

     

    I have dropped my buy target for IAALF to $.07 for the time being.
    2 Aug 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • ungawah
    , contributor
    Comments (896) | Send Message
     
    Molycorp reports its Q2 results http://bit.ly/QDaqRq

     

    Did anyone notice that LYSCF & LYSDY were showing zero volume well after the market opened this AM?
    2 Aug 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    MCP looks like one big hot mess, imo. Even the preferred stock doesn't whet my appetite after reading this report.
    2 Aug 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Poor report for MCP. They reiterate that Phoenix is on time and on budget, but the costs for absorbing Neo are high. Costs are up, income is down. Writedowns on inventories was a large expense...

     

    A $.03 loss per share instead of the anticipated $.08 profit is a real setback...

     

    With rare earth prices trending up the forward-looking situation based upon these write-downs might look better.

     

    Anticipate a drop into the $14's once again for MCP common.
    3 Aug 2012, 07:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I expect massive (over 32% short yesterday on MCP) short covering early this morning. Could stabilize price in the $14's, though its at $13.50 pre-market.
    3 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Upon further digging, it would appear that MCP really has finally gotten serious about building out Phoenix (and the costs have shot up, adding one time charges to their financial results).

     

    I disbelieved the idea they floated that they would crank up Phoenix phase 1 in September, but December... Might happen.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • jpau
    , contributor
    Comments (714) | Send Message
     
    Preferred under 40
    3 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm full up on MCP-PA.

     

    More interested in the common around $12...
    3 Aug 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    $12 will get you a lot more for your money than when the common was at $75 more than a year ago, that is for sure.
    http://bit.ly/MhBiSe
    3 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The way I see it I'm buying Neo and getting MCP for free.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • Valley Boy
    , contributor
    Comments (2192) | Send Message
     
    The Yahoo! Message Boards are really going at it today about this.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    3 Aug 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Anyone surprised after the tough numbers came out just hasn't been paying attention. JPM, if following their usual plan, MUST downgrade MCP to match reality, or lose what scant credibility they retain.

     

    I built a largish trading bloc today avg share cost $11.75.

     

    Sold some MCP-PA at a loss to help provide the dry powder, also trimmed down GWMGF at breakeven to do the same thing.

     

    I came close to selling off some Lynas, but decided to hold for now.

     

    Took lower than planned profits on QREDF, TAS, and TAMO, plowed that into MCP.

     

    Sold off my trading bloc of IAALF at break even...
    3 Aug 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    You're bolder than I am, TB. I watched all morning for an entry trade on MCP; but just stopped watching because IMHO this boat is sinking deeper (just hit $11:41); MCP is not the kind of quality company I am willing to get "stuck" holding for awhile if need be. Yes that is one of my quaint short-term trading rules.
    3 Aug 2012, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I like Neo. Its profitable (throwing off over $200million in positive cash flow per quarter). I'm buying it for $11.75 per share, and getting MCP tossed in for free. I believe MCP has more government support coming early in 2013 (maybe a lot). If nothing else, they have 7,000 metric tonnes of critical and heavy (ie, expensive) rare earth product going to the US Department of Defense when they open up Phoenix. They have the DOD contract sewed up. Combined with their other customers, they have Phase 1 sold out, and Phase 2 filling up fast.

     

    My primary hit on them for a long time has been that they were talking about accelerating Phoenix, with a rapidly approaching deadline, but little progress was showing... Now they show real, believable progress, but are burning through money. Frankly, I did not believe them when they talked a good game, but I do believe them now that their financial side matches their progress claims. That may seem odd, but my experience has been that you can have crash projects OR steady profits, but if you plan to do both simultaneously, one or the other has to give.

     

    Right now I am happy with the share price as a ratio to the overall situation and the progress toward setting up Phoenix.

     

    MCP at $38 per share (without the debt load from acquiring Neo or building both phases of Phoenix prior to late 2013 or 2014) was a worse deal than $11 or 12 with the debt load and Neo with Phoenix cranking out product by the end of 2012 (I still doubt they will be anywhere near designed production of 20kmt or 40kmt by that time, but even if they are running at a mid-ramp rate for Phase 1 or 10kmt, that will be enough to meet their immediate contract obligations).
    3 Aug 2012, 02:05 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    Good luck TB, I'm with MJ, gonna sit and watch for a while. I have feathers growing today :)
    3 Aug 2012, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This is what I do. I lie dormant much of the year, until something really awful happens, then I strike.

     

    Do note that I pulled most of the money for this adventure from MCP preferred (which had not dropped as much percentagewise as the common when I sold it) and from profits squeezed from smaller REE/Strat players.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would estimatae the current short% against the float at between 32 and 40%. Call it 36%. The huge majority of those short positions are in bonanza territory right now, and human nature will start urging them to capture profits and cover.

     

    If we see a marked trend upward toward the close from the appx 2pm bottom, this could be an indication at the shorts are starting to cash in.

     

    Tomorrow morning could get real interesting...
    3 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Hopefully we will all be sleeping in tomorrow morning -- that will make it far more interesting! LOL
    3 Aug 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL, now you're bragging MJ!

     

    But you are right, I guess it will be Monday morning...
    3 Aug 2012, 02:39 PM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    LOL she got you TB ! But that hold till Monday is the main reason I don't trade it today....but I do agree with you, shorts will cover and soon.
    3 Aug 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I am completely with you on this one TB. I shaved 33% of my position in Lynas that I built averaged at .83-.87 and another position in a small company called Active Power I was playing for short-term gains. In the past 3 days 30% of MCP's OS have traded hands. At these prices and the sharp drop it has had over the past two weeks we should see at least a pop back to the median of $15-16 in pretty short order. REE prices have bottomed. Shorts will cover. Macro scene has been baked in. Highly liquid stock. Downside risk short to medium-term appears negligible. I averaged at $11.70. Good luck to us, although it may not make you feel better being with me on this as we also share AXPW together and we both know how that one is going.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Welcome aboard, jakurtz!

     

    I am one of the few who have been watching AXPW for several years, but only took the plunge when it got hammered late last year. I'm in currently with a $.332 avg share cost for that one, so I am not so worried...

     

    MCP is a very different kettle of fish...
    3 Aug 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NeEXB6

     

    GDLNF and HUDRF, 2 from my Raid list, are in play...

     

    Blood in the gutters... Perfect turtle surfing weather.
    3 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    What value do you attribute to Neo?

     

    "We cannot assure you that we will be able to obtain any financing on commercially acceptable terms or at all," Molycorp said in a statement.

     

    That statement is not just cya, it's worrysome. We've got to figure they've been pursuing funding while this scenario unfolded.

     

    I don't know how liquid the options are, but if I bought here, I'd look at selling 16 calls, especially if the stock hits bottom and turns back up.
    3 Aug 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » They recently bought them for about $1.3billion. Now MCP's market cap is less than that. I would think Neo is worth about $1billion...

     

    And that is without the new project MCP is joint venturing with Mitsubishi, etc. to build magnets in Japan dependent upon the Neo magnet powder plant in Thailand, which might be a value-added situation for that end of the business.

     

    I think the net value the market is putting on MCP (pre-Neo) is less than $0 right now, and the situation is ripe for a reflex bounce next week.

     

    I saw that too, OG. I agree the statement about getting more financing is worrisome (and no company can guarantee they will get good terms any time they go after such funding). It is worrisome.
    3 Aug 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Through SEC law that is a statement a company must put out when actively looking for financing. Some funds have rules about holding positions in stocks with that statement and will sell regardless of price. I imagine many such funds did that today. The great thing about the the liquidity with MCP is that 20% of its OS sold in just one day, almost 40% went in the past three days. So funds do not have to wait and drag out the selling over long periods of time once the stock hits a threshold that demands they sell. Their might be another day or two of pain at the most but I would be very surprised if it is not back into the teens by the end of next week. Of course nothing is guaranteed around here.

     

    I want to learn more about how you do your options. I need to learn some tricks and safer ways to play the game. At some point I will PM you and see if I can bum some knowledge from you if you have the time.
    3 Aug 2012, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pssst! Jakurtz, take a peak at the AH trading on MCP right now...

     

    Up $4.58 as I write this...

     

    Looks like AH trading has been halted. Probably another circuit breaker, or algo gone wild...

     

    Must have been a glitch on Yahoo. I went to the NASDAQ AH screen, and no such event.

     

    Interesting, though...
    3 Aug 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    I was going to say -- I want your broker!

     

    Fidelity is showing order book of BID $11.42 vs. ASK of 11.49.
    3 Aug 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I agree with MJ and Optionsgirl on MCP. Saying the current price is NEO with Moly for free ignores the debt risk that these funded REE stocks face right now. If the Moly side causes MCP to operate at a loss and with further one times (due to poor synergies) and inefficiencies reduce company production, the Moly side is not free at all. More to the point, MCP has considerable debt and may need future capital raising. The current quarter would make raising tough (if needed) and the debt tightens their race against the debt clock.

     

    Mind you, I think this same reasoning applies to the Lynas crowd that says the low share price values LAMP at zero. Such reasoning ignores the debt obligations in Lynas that could wipe out the equity if delays in Malaysia last too long.

     

    And GW faces the same clock. They have the financing at eight percent. They need to get the hardware on the ground like everyone else. If they or GQD drag their feet OR South Africa turns bureaucratic the debt could be a big issue for them. And no way is LCM earnings any more than a drop in that debt bucket until Steen is producing.

     

    But if these stocks maintain their recent (last 18 months)pace, they are all losers IMO. The quarterly spend and the debt costs spell trouble in all three right now. I think all three CAN avoid dire consequences, but the risks are important. It is the flip side to the production horse race we often discussed in 2011.

     

    One other pessimistic thought on MCP. The price action suggests firms are leaving MCP. It is hard for firms to get out of large positions in a day. MCP is a big stock compared to the others. When it drops 28.5% on big volume I suspect firms are not yet fully sold out. I expect more downside Monday. The bargain hunting may still need a day or two IMO. But to be frank, I don't see bargain hunting at all. Moly may have played Russian Roulette with the acquisition game. They picked a click with Silmet. But with a billion dollar project, the NEO buy was risky. Now they need to make it work fast on a global level in a sluggish economy. That is a tough pistol to spin the way I see it.
    Good luck to all and DD as well.
    4 Aug 2012, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Mercy Jimenez
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Also want to add that Ocean Man on StockTalk just reminded everyone that MCP still has a large investor law suit pending re: a "pump and dump" share scheme last year:

     

    "The plaintiff alleges that the defendants made a number of improper statements that inflated Molycorp's stock price and defendants embarked on a pump-and-dump scheme that would reap them, and those that control them, more than $1.5 billion in ill-gotten gains."

     

    http://yhoo.it/Rpbevc
    5 Aug 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, Moly has gone from production costs around $2 to up around $15/kg. Not sure if it was a burning bush moment or if the plaintiffs are right to feel sand bagged.
    That 2011 slide showing Moly vs China vs Lynas costs is looking less promotional and more "should have known" negligence at this point IMO.
    5 Aug 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    I should correct myself here. Moly said China is around $15/kg. I do not think they said their cost of production expected after Phoenix.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    I am pretty much in full agreement on the risks with REE miners.

     

    One thing on Moly; being the only producer in North America and the only one that can come close to supplying our military as well as now having a mine to magnent integration I would be pretty surprised if Moly could not get funding if they need it on decent terms to give them a runway into 2014. Analysts, retailers et al. are completely in the trough of disillusionment after pricing all these juniors through the roof last year. Negative Q2 reports because of dismal REE prices from most miners were expected and began the sell-off, Moly's statement on funding created the perfect scenario for it to get way oversold on a TA as well as fundamental analysis after an already arduous twelve months from its peak of $70.

     

    I have already planned and positioned my portfolio for Q3 to have a bounce in commodities after a year long rather sharp decline including REE's, so Friday's MCP sell-off flashed as a perfect storm opportunity on many levels. It could last another day or two as you and I mentioned but that would constitute a tremendous amount of new volume and most available outstanding shares would have changed hands.

     

    I agree with your long-term survival analysis in regards to REE miners; the way I read it Moly and Lynas seem to be the most well-positioned players. One for the oversized Asian market and one for North America and the west, as long as we still need REE's these guys should still have a future, as well as a couple other choice juniors whose management navigates them successfully through this swamp without debt until they are producing and generating revenue, probably a couple years out or they are bought I suppose.
    4 Aug 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • LT
    , contributor
    Comments (4604) | Send Message
     
    I agree with you on the DOD funding them if necessary. MCP is almost a national security priority in a way. The stock could drop to $5-6 and them still be in business .. and not be a good investment. That's my worry.
    4 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • jakurtz
    , contributor
    Comments (1909) | Send Message
     
    Neo Materials 52 week low last sept. when everything was trashed was $5.50 or about $550M value. Moly trading at $5-$6 would value both them and their new acquisition at that low in Sept. giving them each a value of $300M, some really really bad stuff would need to be happening, always possible. As it is one could argue Moly and Neo both are being valued at $600M each, a pretty deep discount considering 12 months ago Moly alone was at well over $4B. REE's have not disappeared completely although it is apparent they were at the peak of their hype over a year ago.

     

    It could be with the sequestration investors are not counting on the DOD funding anything in short order.
    4 Aug 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Funding will come from a basket of options, short term, but should DOD decide to get behind funding, the DOE program will be the most likely vehicle.

     

    Anyone who is risk averse should not be in the altenergy or strategic minerals sector right now.

     

    Hot money has fled, in the wake of the whales, as it usually does.
    4 Aug 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Well, Moly does have the DOD contract. But did they ever get a government loan? Are they still the same national security concern if the HREE's are coming from China processing? And if so will China allow the Neo HREE's out if they are for the DOD? I suppose they might if that becomes the compromise with the WTO. But all of this is more of the same "How does the new MCP company fit together?" issue IMO. Then there is the further question about whether Moly has enough HREE's to be profitable at the now $15/kg production costs that were stated last year as $2 plus/ kg.
    My main point is the MCP sell down has some fundamental basis IMO. The quarter suggests the Q2 2012 reality was very different than the 2011 promises. MCP does look cheap to me in several ways, but like all of the REE stocks I need to see some action on their part to believe in them.
    4 Aug 2012, 09:42 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    Last September the quarters in Moly and Neo were cleaner and the two companies made money. Judging from the current quarter the profitability in Moly was based on insufficient Phoenix spending. Now together they are harder to read and losing money. I think that makes it hard to just use old market caps to determine value.

     

    BTW, all of the rare earths oxide prices are way below their September 2011 prices (especially the Mountain Pass' basket with it's LREE bias). And most of the REE stocks I track are also way lower too.
    4 Aug 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5045) | Send Message
     
    Thanks to all for advancing scenarios with your ideas for valuing NEO and MOLY.
    I am going to keep watching for an entry, but a chart will have to show me a floor in the share price, first.
    4 Aug 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would look for a wild chart next week. When the shorts cover, there could be an abrupt run for the exits for about 35-40% of the float, starting from a sub$12 point (my WAG). I have 30% of my shares set for a program sale right now...
    5 Aug 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    If I were a short (which I'm not), why cover? There is no earnings in MCP; Phoenix is not built and the technical parts of Phoenix appear a ways away; nothing in the call suggested the expected synergies for Neo are coming soon; Moly even ballooned production costs. Last year the main pros to Moly over the other REE stocks were:
    -Cash flow
    -Earnings
    -Lowest cost producer
    Moly (at least for now) appears to have said good-bye to all three of those pillars in this report. Why close a short? The story is very broken IMO.
    5 Aug 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Chi:

     

    Cash flow: Look at what Neo brings to the table, short and middle term. Intergration costs should be largely done now.

     

    Earnings: Even the relatively slight (currently about 28%) increase in their primary production elements' pricing will make a significant impact. Drop out the one time charges and they have positive earnings again.

     

    Lowest cost producer: LOL, its anyone's guess what ANYONE's production costs will be by the end of the year! China is destroying all the little outlaw producers (who were by far their low cost guys, and one of the motivations for them to form their Cartel). Lynas keeps borrowing more money to stay afloat and shutting down their mine while waiting on Malaysian slugs, er, politicians to allow them to produce anything, so their costs are built on shifting ground. GWM has never promised to be the low cost producer for the light elements, neodymium, or praesodimium, and until they can actually build a plant its very unclear how that will work out...

     

    Shoot, Moly just might end up the low cost producer for some elements, but who knows right now?
    5 Aug 2012, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • chihawk
    , contributor
    Comments (2099) | Send Message
     
    TB,
    I think we just disagree. But I don't understand the independent Neo emphasis. The acquisition is obviously NOT working. Why suggest it must? Let's face it, the vast majority of acquisitions fail. This one looks weak at the moment.

     

    Further, earnings are in doubt as well. It's not just the one time charges. Moly needs still more money and they are not sure how much they need or where the financing will come from. Sure that could turn out as you describe, but they didn't give us specifics on either the capital needed or how they will get it. How much more doubt about cash flow and earnings could they create?

     

    Honestly, I don't see the facts supporting the bull case for Moly at this point. They need time to sort themselves out IMO. Anyone buying them now is assuming several things this quarter threw in doubt. It can right itself and turn into a value. But a lot of that depends on the answers Moly was unable to provide in the call. I doubt the expected rebound and will guess it goes lower next week.
    5 Aug 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL! We definitely disagree. As for the merger, why suggest it must fail? The vast majority of acquisitions are ultimately subsumed into successful companies. When discussing conglomerates (where disparate companies are welded together in some haphazard fashion) you characterization is one I could agree with. In cases where the acquired company remains virtually intact, including prior management and facilities, the major drawbacks involve the accounting and tax treatment, which has already resulted in the one time charges this past quarter.

     

    "Earnings are in doubt as well". Of course, there is no certainty (for anyone). All we can gauge is the general conditions in the market, and they show clear signs of having bottomed with a mild bounce in prices underway. Prices for the magnet powders and alloys that are their primary stock in trade are value-added and have not experienced the same downdraft as the raw materials. The reason that inventory writedowns were so large was that the ex-Neo production lines were fully stocked, including critical metals exported to Thailand. Next quarter these cheaply acquired raw materials will probably be manufactured into products sold to customers at an enhanced profit margin... I say "probably" because, indeed, no one truly knows the future.

     

    Its possible that China will be so clumsy building its Cartel that they will somehow manage to flood the markets with rare earths instead of tightly controlling supply and increasing price (which is their stated and logical plan).

     

    As for the state of near term capital requirements, we certainly do NOT know details for MCP just yet. I am hopeful that we will, and soon. The current situation should be a powerful whip applied to management to 'get er done'.

     

    I view their potential funding in a manner similar to that which we saw before Lynas negotiated their deal with the Boyz on Wall Street. At the time I was very nervous about what could happen in Malaysia, but I stuck with the company in the belief that they would succeed in getting funding. I did the same thing (and felt the same misgivings) with GWM. In both cases their stock prices have dropped, though through no fault of the ultimate funding. I have increased my holdings in both cases, as the share prices became attractive and the timeline stretched, because my evaluation of the 2 companies was that both would ultimately win through. I see the same scenario with all the same doubts and bullet items now playing out for MolyCorp.

     

    When I all-but called BS on MCP's projection that they would have nearly 20kmt production rate by September this year, I chose to wait for them to actually take the steps (which I thought would also result in funding issues and stop the flow of positive earnings) to achieve real progress. Now I see the progress on Phoenix, and a timeline which believably could (if they solve funding) result in first feed to a new Phoenix by December. Just as with the original timeline for the LAMP, with September 2011 for startup, I am doubtful but hopeful about December. My own thought is that they will probably slip into Q1 2013, while I am once again doubtful but hopeful that Lynas will finally accomplish first feed by September (though I also anticipate them going back to the well for further funding, probably Q4 or very early Q1).

     

    I am currently simply waiting for GWM to fail at their current timeline for production from Steen, and give us a more reasonable estimate somewhere in late 2013+ (along with the earliest warnings that they will be needing more money). I believe this likelihood is very much already baked into their share price (just as the utter failure of Malay bureaucracy is already baked into Lynas).

     

    I WAS surprised by the size and number of one time charges for MCP this past quarter, I had thought that they would hold off doing a lot of those things (and continue to build out Phoenix at a slower pace, particularly in regard to some of the very expensive component installations). By lumping everything into a huge pile and dumping it on the market in such a shocking manner, they created a very steep decline in share price.

     

    LOL, I am FAR from "bullish" on MCP right now. On the contrary, if I WERE bullish they would need to have a share price hovering in the low to mid $30's, and have posted up a mild beat on the $.08 estimate, with upbeat (if ultimately discounted by me) news about Phoenix construction and their new magnet joint venture in Japan. I do NOT invest while conditions are bullish, but when they are bearish, preferably VERY bearish, and then I pick stocks which have prospects. In this case I believe its an incredibly risky stock "with prospects". The first prospect is for a reflex bounce back to the median, $13-15, short term. Short covering when it occurs will likely result in the usual crowding at the sale window, and the laggards will back away as the share price briefly gets propelled beyond their desired results. This is the eternal sorting of the short sheep who wait too long, while the short wolves take their quick 40% gains and slink away to find another limping prey.

     

    But maybe not. Maybe it goes even lower this week. Its a risky gamble, but its in line with my overall investment philosophy, which is to look for blood and a crisis event which yields very low prices. My horizon for MCP has always been with the expectation of their getting Phoenix going in 2013, with full nameplate production running strong by 2014. I may have to hold these shares into next year, for that matter.

     

    You may be right Chi. I don't win every gamble, never will.
    6 Aug 2012, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • jimp
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    With rare earth stocks at all time lows (blood in the streets) What are you guys thinking of buying? Do you think we will drop even further from here over the coming months?
    5 Aug 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • aqwert
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/R8LQbe

     

    the bear case for Lynas. a .20 target for the stock. Take that with a grain of salt since they have a buy on MCP target 28$. They recommend shorting Lynas and going long MCP. Interesting.
    6 Aug 2012, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The cannibalistic pundit behavior in this sector never ceases to amaze me...
    6 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    I'm mostly out of RE stocks at the moment, but I still enjoy your site. I just did some catching up and saw your comments on EMMCF from a few days ago. I recommend taking another look at it. You are right that their Scandiun project is mired in legal proceedings, but the market is valuing that at zero in any event. I believe their 100% owned Tungsten mine alone is worth a multiple of the current $0,06 share price. They have announced they are no longer trying to sell it, and instead are trying to line up financing to bring the mine into production. The thing I find most impressive is the fact that they just closed a private placement where six individuals (all insiders: three top officers, two directors and a private investor who already owned 15% of the company) bought all 11 million shares. That is a lot of faith in the company, backed up with their own cash.
    6 Aug 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I believe I mentioned that the Tungsten mine was worth the share price. I will believe they are actually going to bring it on line when that actually happens (I'm afraid they cried "wolf" with that particular tall tale too many times for me to have faith). In fact, I believe their current game plan has more to do with the downstream pollution from their scandium misadventures than with any driving desire to become a productive mining concern.

     

    At this point I would actually be more impressed if they HAD found a buyer for the mine. This strikes me as an emergency fallback position...

     

    Still, I hope they can pull it off. As I have said over and over again, my interest in them was always focused on them opening up the tungsten mine. The day they do that, I will look at them again.
    6 Aug 2012, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • ellwodo
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    TB,

     

    Since my average share cost is about twice the current $0.06, I can't argue wth your wait and see approach. But bear in mind that if they can pull it off, the share price will be considerably higher by then. With their recent hiring of a full time mine manager, new directors with this type of experience and the heavy insider buying last month, I'm going to bet it's sooner rather than later and put my chips on "producing mine". After all, differing views are what makes a casino (oops, I meant "stock exchange") work.
    6 Aug 2012, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13441) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    New Concentrator is this way...
    7 Aug 2012, 09:27 AM Reply Like
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