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  • REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, August 7, 2012 193 comments
    Aug 7, 2012 9:26 AM

    REE/Strategic Minerals Concentrator, August 7, 2012

    MCP was slightly up yesterday, while GWM and Lynas are exploring similar nether regions on their charts as they hang fire with development issues.

    News out of China continues to be supporter of rare earth prices, while they continue to build their towering Cartel

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Comments (193)
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  • Author’s reply » MCP now trading at $12.14, with signs that short covering has begun...

     

    Jak, be alert...
    7 Aug 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Nice timing TB ... congrats & good luck to you guys.
    7 Aug 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Ditto -- bold play paying off -- very nice!
    7 Aug 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » So far so good, but bears close watching. $12.39 high...

     

    Shorts are nibbling, closing a few positions, but not a rush just yet...

     

    If it hits $13 we might see a surge.
    7 Aug 2012, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • TB-- I would say when it takes out 13.49 with conviction, you might get some short covering surge. There obviously is a big gap to fill there so it will be interesting to see what it does at 16.

     

    Good luck. Nice bottom fishing there!
    7 Aug 2012, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • Now that is climbing from the low, are you thinking about selling some calls to boost your return?
    7 Aug 2012, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • I am hoping it stays calm with a slow climb because I am at the beach this week, so I am in and out. I am definitely watching just not as closely as I normally would. I appreciate any updates.
    7 Aug 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Already done.
    8 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » $13.16, back in the teens Jak, and about where I thought it would be by now. aqwert mentioned that he saw $13.49 as a point where shorts will start to cover, so we might see if that is true later today...

     

    Enjoy the beach. I am heading to Wilmington, NC for a show Labor day, I'll go and eyeball the ocean some, and tour the USS North Carolina (haven't been aboard her in several decades, I'm looking forward to that).
    8 Aug 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • SRSR signs JV.
    Sarissa Resources Announces Letter of Intent to Form Joint Venture and Access Project Financing
    10:52a ET August 7, 2012 (Market Wire) Sarissa Resources Inc. (PINKSHEETS: SRSR) ("Sarissa"), through its wholly-owned subsidiary Nio-Star Corp. ("Nio-Star" or "the Company") is pleased to announce that they and a mining group have signed a Letter of Intent to form a Joint Venture company (the "JV") to finance the advanced exploration of Nio-Star's Nemegosenda niobium property (the "Property") near Chapleau in Northern Ontario. The parties will enter into a definitive joint venture agreement (targeted by September 30th, 2012) upon obtaining approval of the appropriate Government Agencies.

     

    The formation of the JV will include the funding necessary for the completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study (the "Study") for the project, (or the expenditure of $20 million towards the Study) and payments to Nio-Star.

     

    Further details on the JV and the participants will be released as the transaction progresses and approvals are obtained.

     

    Safe Harbor This press release contains statements, which may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements include statements regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of Sarissa Resources Inc. and Nio-Star Corp., as well as members of their respective management, in addition to the assumptions on which such statements are based. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements. Important factors currently known to management that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-statements include fluctuation of operating results, the ability to compete successfully and the ability to complete before-mentioned transactions. Neither Sarissa nor Nio-Star undertakes any obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results.
    7 Aug 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yes. Good news for SRSR. I took profits at $.035 (I have been buying at $.016 and below). Now my remaining position is at $.0 cost and I have banked more profits against this investment. This is one which I have been discussing for a long time here, of course. I believe it could see $.05 from this news as retails flesh out the mid term details...

     

    I increased by Buy target to $.0225.
    7 Aug 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Unfortunately, I dumped my SRSR at a loss. Timing is everything! How far out do you see $.05? Maybe I'll try it again to make up for my loss - ha.
    7 Aug 2012, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » This stock can be volatile. This new announcement might produce a further pop short term. Without more details, its hard to predict.
    7 Aug 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • J. Kaiser is watching MCP, but isn't ready to buy at this level/ point.
    Basically he alluded to the point that MCP, Lynas and China will be supplying the world with lights in the future. But why not buy the rare earth miners that have the rare earths that the rest of the world needs including China... Quest and Tasman anyone?
    7 Aug 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I believe TAS will be a 2014 story, and Quest will come to life in 2015 (probably early in 2015, though). I am long TAS (I trade around my slowly growing core position, when it has sufficient volatility), and I sometimes trade Quest but am not currently long that stock.

     

    I consider both to be potential buys at current prices, for those looking for a medium-long term position with a horizon out at least 2 or 3 years.
    7 Aug 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Nasty take from a non-friend analyst of Lynas:

     

    http://bit.ly/OZJcDW

     

    Hellgarten's idea is to go long MCP, and Short Lynas, with a target on Lynas of $.20.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • $.20..... what a buying opportunity.
    8 Aug 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • One point in that article that is worth repeating: Lynas can go to China and make the LAMP redundant. Perhaps that is what they should do, as a bargaining chip and a way to process the materials sooner rather than later.
    8 Aug 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lynas can toll its ore to Japan as well (at least, up to a point, and not a really high capacity at that).
    8 Aug 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • Good to see the all seeing "eye" back.
    8 Aug 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • SWAK,Rattie.

     

    Regarding Peel's article, is this statement that he made true? If so, it's incredible, because Curtis repeatedly told shareholders they complied with every request. Here is the statement:
    "Last July, the Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) required Lynas to satisfy eleven conditions before the LAMP could proceed, including a long-term solution for the radioactive waste. In its first proposals to the AELB, Lynas failed to meet any of the conditions."

     

    The author alleges that Lynas failed to meet 11 conditions in several proposals, is he not?
    Is that after receiving feedback from AELB on what they needed to proceed? After all, who sends in multiple proposals without feedback?
    Either that's a very serious allegation, or extremely poor reporting, imo. When was Lynas made aware of the conditions imposed by the AELB? Before, or after the proposals were submitted?
    One would expect the company would comply with AELB's requests as they occurred, and it is certainly possible that the requests were on-going and not all formulated at once.
    Why isn't Chi here making himself useful? :)
    8 Aug 2012, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The operative quote in that sentence is " In its first proposals..." The Malay AELB has a long history of playing games with this matter, particularly with the LAMP. Typical bureaucratic games. The implication is that the problem lay with Lynas, whereas all the evidence indicates it was always with the Malaysians (who were extremely focused on internal politics). Lynas dutifully slogged through, resubmitting and addressing whatever nit picking was done.

     

    NC could not come out in public and call the Malaysian government on any of it - that would have fed right into the opposition's game.

     

    After receiving what was tacitly the same document from Lynas - and holding it as long as the government needed to stretch out whatever time component was operating in their political squabble with Fuzzy et al, the paperwork was subsequently "Accepted".

     

    We have the same thing going on right now with 2 items which are currently waiting on the AELB to accept.

     

    The implication that there is some insurmountable barrier is made possible by the necessity of Lynas to keep their traps shut (otherwise they re-ignite the just-smothered firestorm), and the silence from the Malaysians, who persist in playing political games in the runup to the new elections (I have heard October, but the article mentions November).

     

    Lynas has long-since met their demands, including some very wierd ones. Had they built the LAMP in Australia, it would have been running for a year already.

     

    Its extremely "incomplete" reporting, with the bias plain to see, imo.
    8 Aug 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • It's not the first time a government has broken a company, but it looks bad for Malaysia-- ostensibly attempting to build industry while throwing a monkey wrench during a high-profile build-out.
    However, these articles that try to make Lynas look bad succeed,imo. That's why there are so many of them!
    8 Aug 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Rather than MCP, I chose to re-enter MCP pfd. We were out of 95% of our position a couple months ago, so we were playing with the house's money. If you agree, caveat emptor -- this will be a forced conversion in March 2014...
    8 Aug 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • UAMY lowering ever so slightly today, looks like pricing power may be an issue?

     

    http://bit.ly/OU4HEh
    8 Aug 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Here's some speculation about the evidence of North Korea's rare metals.
    http://read.bi/QHf95a
    8 Aug 2012, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • here you go TB.....
    http://bit.ly/NlpRvi

     

    Is Molycorp Making Short Sellers Nervous?
    Call volume has skyrocketed today on Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP - 12.75), with approximately 18,000 of these bullishly slanted contracts crossing the tape so far. This represents a major increase over the stock's average daily call volume of roughly 8,500 contracts. Meanwhile, only about 5,100 puts have changed hands on MCP.
    9 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Interesting, isn't it?
    9 Aug 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lots of REE/Strat news this morning...

     

    http://bit.ly/NpRhi3

     

    The bit about the EU mandating AEBs on all their vehicles (soon) has a bigger impact than might seem apparent at first glance...

     

    "Gamechanger" springs to mind.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • Any idea who makes the parts for AEBs?
    9 Aug 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • Dug around a bit... Looks like TRW is one of the big players in automated braking systems. Interestingly, TRW executed a death cross in July, But there has been quite an upward movement in their stock price since the end of July. Here is a link that discusses their automated braking system.

     

    http://tinyurl.com/9vs...
    9 Aug 2012, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • TB and FPA,

     

    Just FYI -- In their recent earnings call Autoliv ALV fielded a question re: adding AEB and other active safety in their testing across global regions and here is the time frame they mentioned:

     

    "I would then like to come back to the comments from Hampus, you asked about, you rank on what’s happening in the area of Active Safety. If you look to the upcoming years here you have a new racing related to Active Safety, which is Speed Assist coming in 2013. You have autonomous emergency braking in 2014, lane departure warning and lane keep assist in 2014, as well, and then emergency braking for pedestrians starting in 2016.

     

    So, there are a lot of activities happening right now related to active safety in (inaudible) area. If you look to active safety and into other regions, there are less of activities so far in North America and in Asia related to active safety. But we believe that when this is coming on, there will be follow up activities in the North America and in Asia also. Maybe Asia will take some longer time but then follow on in North America." (Jan Carlson)

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    9 Aug 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » AELB updates its FAQ section on its website from time to time, and is now listing the LAMP as "under review", referring to the 2 requirements laid on Lynas by Science Minister Ongkilli.

     

    Every Malay bureaucrat who touches the Lynas license adds another CYA layer of redundant paperwork...

     

    So, the prediction by NC last CC that Lynas would be getting the TOL in time for them to ship ore from WA and have first feed in August is looking very iffy...

     

    Maybe they will overnight a small package via FedEx...
    9 Aug 2012, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • Latest negative pile on to Lynas -- out tonight:

     

    "THERE'S been a big rare earths call before the market- open this morning: a "sell" recommendation put on Lynas Corp.

     

    A Sydney broker believes the company is facing "balance sheet difficulties" because Malaysia will delay approval of its controversial Lynas Advanced Materials Plant, which has been under construction in that country's east coast for several months at least." http://bit.ly/NhTVd5

     

    The reaction on the ASX thus far tonight is muted. There is a whopping 634,464 ask size BUT a 551,890 bid size to counter for one penny lower. Should be interesting action!
    9 Aug 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thanks MJ.

     

    JPM just recently looked the situation over (and they are certainly no friends of Lynas) and concluded that the company would be worth about $.74 per share IF the LAMP was a total loss. Given that the current share price is barely above that level, and that what is foreseen (by loads of folks, for months, including on this blog) is a likely delay until the Malay elections (October or November), the downside looks very truncated to me, whereas the upside is far more "roomy".

     

    As a whole the REE sector has bottomed, as have REE prices (no coincidence, that), and now are moving upward again. General news in the sector is very supportive - China (who still controls both supply AND prices) has wrung out the remnants of the old system and is nearly finished building its new Cartel, with a vow to support and raise prices via its spanking new Mongolian exchange.

     

    Taking months-old speculation and issuing new positions based upon them, given the overall situation, means that one should strongly question the motives of the publisher (even if it is a major media or investment house in New York, much less a small bit player in Sydney).
    10 Aug 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Absolutely agree TB. I am sticking with my long Lynas position for all of the reasons you mention as well as my comfortably low average cost basis per share. Since the actual mining is in Australia, as was discussed earlier, a worse case scenario IMO has Lynas mining output going to be processed elsewhere if needed - not ideal but a backup.

     

    BTW -- looking at where the ASX ended last night -- I am actually encouraged thus far to see 10+ million shares trade hands after that sell recommendation, while the shares dropped only 1 AUD penny. Every time big blocks came up for sale -- equally big blocks took interest in buying.
    mj
    10 Aug 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Based upon the recent trading charts, I really don't see where that call by a minor broker had any effect. The stronger news yesterday was the boost from a major new application like AEBs. That will have a huge impact, similar to when platinum became a key ingredient in catalytic converters, in terms of new demand. The gathering surge of use for LED lighting is another example. Cerium as THE key ingredient in water filtration systems could be a transorming development for the cheaper light rare earths. Short term we should be paying close attention to what develops from the new REE exchange the Chinese Cartel has erected in Outer Mongolia. Its almost a cartoon of a classic European cartel construct, complete with the gigantic Chinese government elephant seeking to hide behind the tiny puppet theatre of the REE Exchange...
    10 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/RFJna8

     

    The new Cartel's pet exchange in Inner Mongolia is starting to make noise...

     

    Fascinating story. ARE the Chinese running out of critical/heavy REE's already? WILL the pricing on the new exchange have any relation to real world demand/supply forces? LOL, WILL the Western governments ever get a clue?

     

    Inquiring minds want to know...
    10 Aug 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Some news on Greenland Minerals. I don't follow this one, but maybe some of you do.
    http://bit.ly/P9xI2B
    10 Aug 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I made mad money on this one during 2011, but tossed it in the sock drawer and now I only trade it from time to time in a small way. I like its prospects with 2 provisos:

     

    1. Greenland must decide to allow mining for Uranium, something which their apron strings with Denmark currently prevent. Greenland is a mostly (apron strings) independent naiton now, and has a tiny population of just 50,000 people (most of them not very wealthy)... Those folks have to WANT to go forward with developing their mineral resources before this stock can take off.

     

    2. This deal to finally get rid of their raucous minority partners (they have had active harrassing lawsuits for years) goes through.

     

    IF it gets done, the price (15% dilution plus $5million to get 39% of the company's primary asset and cancel all the obstructions that presented) is a good deal. I would consider it to be cheap at the price.
    10 Aug 2012, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A thought: Think of what the average Greenlander will be worth when they open these large mineral deposits (heavy rare earths, Uranium, etc, multiple deposits) to development? They will be pulling in more money per capita at the national level than the Saudis ever did...
    10 Aug 2012, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/P9z0uh

     

    China cracks down on REE smuggling...

     

    So of course, the pundits and xperts predict dire news for the Western rare earth companies...

     

    LOL.
    10 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/OQvsJH

     

    I noticed that this Lynas study had been posted on their site recently (hat tip to rru2s1 on Y for reminding me), and needed to be added to the concentrator.

     

    Note that it is current as of July 31.

     

    They project Lynas will have $62million cash (aside from restricted funds for Phase 2) at the end of this quarter (September). After they receive the TOL and start production, there is a gradual process (based upon ore shipments into Malaysia) with milestones where they must add $10million deposits to the AELB fund. I believe they already have the initial $10million there, and will owe another one (again, assuming TOL level production) by the end of Q3 or sometime in Q4. Depending on events, they may have to depost $20million before the end of the year, perhaps more (if they get frisky with shipments). Any review of their cash burn should therefore keep the $50million to be deposited with the AELB in mind...

     

    I still anticipate they will need additional funding in Q4 or early 2013 at this point, regardless when the TOL is issued.
    10 Aug 2012, 08:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Anyone interested in silver (and particularly in SLW) right now needs to go to this article...

     

    And pretty much ignore the article, its pretty useless, but look down the page and note the long comment by Hyperinflation...

     

    Simply fantastic data and insight.

     

    IMO.
    10 Aug 2012, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • TB,
    Thanks for the link, great insight.
    10 Aug 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/RHwkmZ

     

    Further evidence supporting the thesis that one should flee beware any investment having to do with Malaysia.

     

    Malaysia must now be viewed as the "Venezuela of Asia".
    13 Aug 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Is it more insulting to be compared to Venezuela or Zimbabwe? and which one is more hyperbolic?
    13 Aug 2012, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • Smells like NC will eventually sell LAMP to the Chinese for a pitance. The chance of getting the TOL in the near future is next to nil. Did NC knowingly planned this way ? Jmho !
    13 Aug 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Reiterating my recent Buy Target of $.69 for Lynas.

     

    Of course I am already long Lynas. Current pricing may be attractive for an initial position, everyone should, as always, do your own Due Diligence.
    13 Aug 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Horrors! S&P has rated MCP's notes as "junk"!!!

     

    Er, except it was already rated junk, just 1 tiny fraction higher level junk.

     

    And the reason given was that MCP was seeking additional funding (no duh).

     

    The reaction in the stock seems to be a redoubling of short efforts rather than a marked flight out of the stock, based upon the very visible publishing of this recap of the obvious.

     

    I expect the slow creep upward to resume tomorrow, but I have been wrong before.
    13 Aug 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • I have to agree. I have noted several negative news releases recently on both Lynas and Moly facing possible shortcomings in liquidity and deteriorating global headwinds. Analysts literally saying to dump the shares (nice advice after 80% losses (a day late and a dollar short buddies). They all have struck me as "old news" already baked in the cake and last ditch efforts for shorts to cover but not drive up the prices too much when they do so they can enjoy a little gain upstream as well.

     

    Still...none of it is for the faint of heart and my contrarian streak has been turned on its head more than once. Might be a slow week for all.
    13 Aug 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • A little housekeeping for me.....
    First, TB you were right about your recent Moly buy I have doubted and the stock remains up since I expressed doubts.

     

    I tend to agree with jakurtz on the Lynas doubts. I found the analyst calls even stranger considering the Quarterly gave us some clarity on the current Lynas burn rate. I recognize Lynas' challenges, but downgrading on information we have known for months mostly after the clarity of the numbers from the quarterly was strange to me. Of course you could always doubt LAMP approval, but such comment should have been made much earlier.

     

    Likewise, calling Moly "junk" credit is non-news. IMO if Lynas did a raising without the TOL it would be "junk". Likewise the GW 8% debt is "junk" under the credit definition. I think the real issue here is not the current credit ratings. The issue here is: How much (more) these companies will need to raise? None of these three are trading well (GWG 52 week low today, MCP a little over a week ago, LYC 52 week low within the month). So the challenge is to determine who needs what and can they get it? My bet remains on Lynas, but the word "bet" seems more accurate these days. Unfortunately. DYODD
    13 Aug 2012, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Welcome back, Chi.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Chi at this point I am interested in the "odds". I have relegated my investments here to the "Bet" side a while back.

     

    So now I am hopping for a big payout!!! LOL (sounds of dice rolling)
    16 Aug 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas gets a mention in today's WSJ in an article entitled "India Bets on Rare-Earth Minerals." http://on.wsj.com/MtVFk2

     

    "...average basket of the rare-earth minerals found at its mine are currently worth about $56 per kilogram, down from highs of $148 in 2011 but still more than five times the price in 2009. The price in China of the same rare-earth minerals is $33, or about half the international price, according to Lynas."
    14 Aug 2012, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • Morgan Stanley resumes MCP at overweight... price target 20$

     

    GW having conf. call on the 22nd of Aug.

     

    Great Western Minerals Group Corporate Update and CEO Conference Call Announcement (cnw)

     

    TSX Venture Symbol: GWG
    OTCQX: GWMGF
    CUSIP: 39141Y 10 3

     

    SASKATOON, Canada, Aug. 14, 2012 /CNW/ - Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company") (TSXV: GWG) today announced management appointments and changes, the resignation of a Company Director, and the date of the next CEO Conference Call.

     

    Vernon J. Kiss has been appointed Senior Vice-President, Business and Corporate Development. Mr. Kiss has held the role of Vice-President, Corporate Development and Strategic Initiatives (see GWMG news release January 5, 2012) since joining the Company.

     

    Michael Der, Vice-President, Corporate and Legal Affairs, and General Counsel, has assumed responsibilities as Corporate Secretary for GWMG. He replaces Elizabeth Nash as Corporate Secretary (see GWMG news release June 8, 2011). Ms. Nash continues to provide legal services to the Company.

     

    The Company announces that Robby Gilmore has resigned as a member of the Board of Directors of GWMG (see GWMG news release March 14, 2012). The Company thanks Mr. Gilmore for his service during an important phase of GWMG's development.

     

    GWMG announces that Vincent Mora, who has been its Steenkampskraal Project Director, is no longer performing these duties. Steenkampskraal project management continues to be provided by Rare Earth Extraction Co. Limited ("Rareco") CEO David Kennedy and Mine Manager Kwaw Kabaah, supported by Director of International Exploration Brent Jellicoe, GWMG Vice-President of Operations Richard Hogan and the team of approximately 30 employees and contractors at Steenkampskraal.

     

    Kwaw Kabaah has been appointed as the third member of the three-person Board of Trustees of the Steenkampskraal Workers Trust. He joins Trevor Blench, Chairman of Rareco and Gerrit Horne, an independent lawyer, on the Workers Trust Board, under the Black Economic Empowerment initiative.

     

    GWMG will hold a CEO Conference Call at 10:00 a.m. (EST) on Wednesday, August 22, 2012. The Conference Call will address the Company's progress across the full range of corporate initiatives. Participants can call the following numbers to register:
    •888-231-8191 (North America toll free)
    •647-427-7450 (Local Toronto)
    • 0-800-051-7107 (for United Kingdom)
    • 0-800-835-354 (for Switzerland)
    • Passcode ID: 21005950
    14 Aug 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Well,
    I think calls and communication is needed (by all of these REE stocks). And considering how little Lynas and Moly have to say for themselves, GW should feel lucky to have something to say. Beyond that the moves seem dull and administrative. And perhaps GW will tell us why every claim and timeline has been total nonsense since 2010. If they do anything in that direction they will be way ahead of every other REE stock that has been pure blarney on development for 18 months IMO. "REE stocks you're all worthless and weak" right now.
    http://bit.ly/R0EwPw
    14 Aug 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • I consider GWM a broken stock. They are constantly shuffling management and it appears they can't keep key personnel,imo.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • That's fair OG.
    But as a conversation starter:
    Is there any REE management team to like right now? And if so, who? And why?
    Beyond maybe Alkane and Chambers, I'd say no.
    14 Aug 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • I suspect there is a lot more going on behind the scenes with Lynas/LAMP/Malaysia, and that too much transparency would not be helpful. I think the ruling party is carefully walking the line between strengthening its opposition and damaging the image of Malaysia as a country suitable for foreign investment.
    15 Aug 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Latest interview with Chris Berry who argues for "patience" in the rare earth space. LOL Good supplemental read -- although in some areas insight on this Concentrator has been superior:

     

    http://bit.ly/NxrI0h
    14 Aug 2012, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • GREAT WESTERN MINERALS GROUP GRANTED STEENKAMPSKRAAL REGIONAL RARE EARTH PROSPECTING RIGHT

     

    (August 15, 2012) - Saskatoon, Canada: Great Western Minerals Group Ltd. ("GWMG" or the "Company", TSX:V – GWG) is pleased to announce that it has been successful in its appeal of an outstanding application for prospecting rights in the region surrounding GWMG’s Steenkampskraal monazite mine in South Africa.

     

    Notification of the grant of the prospecting right was received by GWMG from the Director-General of the Mineral Resources Division, Department of Mineral Resources of South Africa.

     

    As noted in a February 7, 2012 media release, GWMG had made application, through its 74% owned subsidiary, Steenkampskraal Monazite Mine (Pty) Ltd., for prospecting rights for approximately 547 square kilometers surrounding the Steenkampskraal site. (GWMG regional prospecting rights map at http://bit.ly/RUP0kV) The Company was, and remains, of the opinion that a number of known monazite outcroppings outside the Steenkampskraal mine site area warrant exploration work in addition to the strong exploration results already reported at the mine site (see April 10, 2012 news release, GWMG Reports Initial Steenkampskraal Rare Earth Assays).

     

    GWMG President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Engdahl said, "Our success in this appeal process is a critical win for the Company as it enables us to extend the Steenkampskraal exploration program past the current boundaries and into the surrounding region. From a long term perspective, for Steenkampskraal and for GWMG, this represents a very important step forward."
    15 Aug 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Good news for GWM. This could help with the out year prospects for Steenkampskraal, particularly past 2017, and would be included in the new PEA underway.
    15 Aug 2012, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • TB- are you sure it would be included in the PEA? I thought that was based on the 43-101 only....
    15 Aug 2012, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I could be wrong.
    15 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • http://bit.ly/NECfoM

     

    Will REEs Suffer the Molycorp Contagion?
    15 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Molycorp Reports Proposed Offerings Of Convertible Senior Notes, Common Stock

     

    (RTTNews.com) - Molycorp, Inc. (MCP) announced that it plans to offer and sell $300 million aggregate principal amount , or up to an aggregate of $345 million aggregate principal amount if the underwriters of such offering exercise their over-allotment option in full, of its Convertible Senior Notes due 2017 and $150 million of its common stock , or up to an aggregate of $172.5 million of Common Stock if Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, the underwriter of such offering, exercises its option to purchase additional shares of Common Stock in full in separate registered public offerings.

     

    The company said it intends to use the net proceeds received from the Notes Offering and the Primary Shares Offering to fund operating expenses, working capital, capital expenditures and any other cash requirements for the remainder of 2012 and the first six months of 2013, including without limitation, capital expenditures at its Mountain Pass facility and other capital projects, as well as other cash requirements, such as cash payments in August 2012 to certain holders of the 5% subordinated unsecured convertible debentures of Molycorp Canada, the Company's wholly-owned Canadian subsidiary.

     

    The company said it intends to lend to Morgan Stanley Capital Services LLC or "MSCS", an affiliate of Morgan Stanley, under a share lending agreement it expects to enter into with MSCS, up to $138 million of Common Stock , which Borrowed Shares the Company intends to offer through Morgan Stanley in a registered public offering.

     

    The company said it is entering into the share lending agreement to facilitate the Notes Offering. The company will not receive any proceeds from the Borrowed Shares Offering, but the company will receive a nominal lending fee from MSCS for the use of the Borrowed Shares, which the company intends to use for general corporate purposes.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • MCP down 8-9% on that news pre-market. Looks to open at a new 52 week low.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:44 AM Reply Like
  • There was no info on the conversion price for the Convertible senior notes...

     

    I was not familiar with the concept of Borrowed shares, so I looked it up. Here is an article entitled "Empty Voting and Other Web Notes" posted on The D&O Diary, on January 27, 2007 by Kevin LaCroix.

     

    One of the tenets of modern corporate governance is that shareholders control corporate managers through shareholder voting. This notion is founded on the premise that shareholders will vote their economic interests, and the weight of their vote will be proportionate to their economic interest.

     

    However, research by University of Texas law professors Henry Hu and Bernard Black reveals that hedge funds and other revenue sources can "decouple" voting rights from economic ownership of shares.

     

    A hedge fund that wishes to obtain voting power does so by borrowing shares from large institutional investors, often as part of a short selling strategy. Borrowing the shares allows the hedge funds to gamble that the shares will decline, and they can use their vote to try to ensure that they will. The professors call the exercise of voting rights divorced from economic interests "empty voting. http://tinyurl.com/9t7...

     

    So basically, the Convertible Senior Notes deal is accompanied [facilitated] with 138M of common stock voting rights. The number of shares that the 138M is associated with is not specified, but its clearly a way to enhance Morgan Stanley's voting power.

     

    It appears it's MCP [the company] that is doing the lending of the voting rights. I don't understand how that works, but this is clearly more than a simple selling of convertible senior notes.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the attempt to explain that....I had noticed the part about borrowing shares and now I understand why.

     

    I agree that this is far more than just a normal capital raise and Note deal.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • The Borrowed Shares Offering is contingent upon the successful completion of the Notes Offering, and the Notes Offering is contingent upon the successful completion of the Borrowed Shares Offering. However, the Primary Shares Offering is not contingent upon the successful completion of either the Notes Offering or the Borrowed Shares Offering, and the Notes Offering and the Borrowed Shares Offering are not contingent upon the successful completion of the Primary Shares Offering

     

    that is a quote from the schwab feed but I lifted it off of stockhouse. Accurate quote .... although I have no idea what it means! there seems to be alot of contingencies...
    16 Aug 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Another Du. Duru article about MCP, but the important part is Jack's comment, be sure you note his reversal of field on Lynas...

     

    Too early to tell what all this chaos means for MCP, I am still wading in complex verbiage... Will it mean that Phoenix development continues without an awkward halt? Yes, I think it does. Does it answer the speculation about funding or all those foretelling a looming bankruptcy? Yes. Does it put Morgan Stanley in the driver's seat? Maybe, in fact, likely...

     

    Will the stock react negatively this morning? I think so, but where it will go or end up today is a mystery to me.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • TB-- not sure of you realize that article is over a month old.

     

    MCP needs to get over 12 to break the downtrend channel ... the bottom is around here somewhere, I guess.
    16 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I was pointing out the Lynas comment by Jack Lifton (article is obsolete of course, and would be even if it had been written yesterday, really, given MCP events).

     

    I try tio avoid cutting and pasting comments on SA...
    16 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MCP currently spiking upward from morning low of $11.16. Now at $11.96 ask...

     

    Forget my comment about "creeping"...

     

    Whatever this is today, its definitely not a "creep".
    16 Aug 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • From todays SA's Market Currents:

     

    Molycorp (MCP) -9.3% premarket after yesterday's 7.5% drubbing following news of its offering. Dahlman Rose downgrades shares to Hold from Buy, as the size of the offering raises questions whether MCP's Mountain Pass project will be completed in the forecast timeframe. The firm cuts 2012 and 2013 EPS to $0.80 and $1.20, respectively, from its earlier $1.70 and $3.50.
    17 Aug 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Predictable. DR is unlikely to support a MS dominated company, and its overly-high stock targets are laughable at this point. DR is one of the big losers in this development...

     

    In light of the recent work on Phoenix - including the spending - and with more funding on hand and coming, the odds that Phoenix will be completed are much better now than when DR was still talking the party line 2 weeks ago. I too doubt the timeline, but less so than then, so I suppose DR and I have changed places on that estimate.

     

    Premarket is notoriously undependable in these situations.

     

    Earnings per share estimates still seem iffy to me (and are those the estimates from DR, or MCP?).

     

    GLTA.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Jeff Kilburg on CNBC just said that DR should be saying "buy" now that Molycorp is at an all-time low. Didn't think DR's actions have made much sense with MCP.
    17 Aug 2012, 01:32 PM Reply Like
  • Moly announced the price of its offering. I put more down this morning at $10, must have been just before they announced the pricing.

     

    http://bit.ly/Nupmms
    17 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • That bowering stock deal looks more and more like a loaded gun to me.
    17 Aug 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DYOR. But with all due respect, I am much more bearish on Moly than anyone else. Phoenix is way too early in the hardest (higher tech) part of the build for these estimate reductions and cost overruns IMO. I know Moly is bigger than the other REE stocks, but it is easy to see how their equity could get wiped out as well. Until we have a better sense of the progress and costs I'd stay away.
    17 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • There is a chance that MCP is a value trap. The management can't make too many missteps at this time, at least according to this article.
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    26 Aug 2012, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • Nice link VB.
    I think the central problem for Moly is:
    The 6 percent coupon the company will be paying out to its convertible bondholders is extremely high for a company with limited revenues and earnings visibility.

     

    Readers should also note this reasoning is amplified when looking at GW or other REE juniors. IMO, this reasoning is far more important to evaluating these stocks than the integration discussion that has been covered ad nauseam.

     

    Also from the Moly article:
    If prices for rare-earth metals don't rebound significantly, then MCP will be facing decreasing revenues and weakening earnings.

     

    If construction and capex costs don't adhere to strict and conservative budget parameters, then MCP will be struggling to pay down its large amounts of debt.

     

    And if MCP isn't able to generate the synergies it claims to be able to achieve from its recent acquisitions, it won't be able to generate any shareholder value from these recent moves.

     

    I don't expect any of those three "if's" to happen in Moly's favor.
    If #1- The macro picture makes a big price rebound doubtful and Lynas and/or Chinese production could also cap some of this.
    If #2- Moly is early on the high tech side of the Phoenix build. This is my greatest concern. Cost overruns look inevitable and large to me.
    If #3-Most acquisitions in the market do disappoint on synergies. When Moly was right with Silmet the payoff was obvious right away. Neo is looking different at this stage.

     

    GW, Lynas & LAMP and Mountain Pass & Moly's assets will be around into the future IMO. But the equities are all subject to large bond interests due to the size of the capital projects. On this subject, Lynas is the far superior stock of the three being built and funded with only a "ready for start-up" burn rate. But each must produce soon to avoid risk to their equities.
    26 Aug 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Good thoughts Chi, and thanks for posting the updated picture.

     

    HardToLove
    26 Aug 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jack asks some pertinent questions of Molycorp in the comment section in this link.
    http://bit.ly/Oo4gkK
    Maybe their heavy rare earth quarry location is classified information, who knows.....
    27 Aug 2012, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • I think the move in Ucore is justified. This story looks very good to me:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ntv4Rj
    Ucore Confirms Effectiveness of SP Technology to Remove 99% of U and Th Impurities

     

    HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA (Aug. 13, 2012) - Ucore Rare Metals Inc (TSX VENTURE:UCU)(OTCQX:UURAF) (“Ucore” or “the Company”) is pleased to announce the completion of separation studies on samples from the Bokan Mountain deposit on Prince of Wales Island in Alaska, USA. The studies, undertaken by IntelliMet LLC of Missoula, Montana, represent one of the final components required for the release of a comprehensive Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), due shortly.

     

    A representative sample of Bokan Mountain mineralized material was used for bench-scale tests to determine the viability of the processing regime. Leaching tests of the rare earth rock products were followed by a purification process that was successful in removing impurities from the leach solutions prior to precipitation of a bulk mixed rare earth element concentrate.

     

    The leaching process employed in the tests treats the mineralized rock with nitric acid, which generates a solution containing the rare earth elements. This leach solution contains not only the rare earth elements but also other elements present in the mineralized rock. An additional processing step prior to bulk precipitation of the rare earth elements (as oxides or oxalates from the leach solution) prevents the generation of an impure precipitate containing these unwanted elements.....
    17 Aug 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I have a current medium term trade working on UURAF, bought in last month at $.29, with the goal a sale at $.40+... One of my Raid list.

     

    Sold today at 41.3% profit.

     

    I will continue to track this one to see where it goes, but I like the short term profits for now. I have upgraded my buy target to $.31, in the event I stage a new trade on UCore.
    17 Aug 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Good example of how technology can even the playing field.

     

    ---
    August 17, 2012 - Toshiba samarium magnet holds rare earth promise for Arafura, Lynas. Primary Source: The Australian, Linked source: RareMetalBlog. Edited by me.

     

    Toshiba has developed technology for boosting the magnetic force of samarium-cobalt magnets to a level on a par with that of magnets using the more expensive rare earths, dysprosium and neodymium. The samarium magnets are said to be sufficiently powerful for use in motors that propel cars and trains as well as industrial machinery, according to Toshiba.

     

    The implications here are that the rare earths market has just been thrown a curve ball. This is a big deal. For one thing, samarium is FAR CHEAPER [my emphasis] than dysprosium (it is grouped with the light elements, while dysprosium is a heavy rare earth). Secondly, China does not have a near-monopoly on samarium as it does with that other key rare earth.

     

    Australia is well placed to supply samarium. The Nolans deposit in the Northern Territory (owned by Arafura Resources) has, in its rare earth mix, 2.3 per cent of the total comprising samarium. Mt Weld in Western Australia (owned by Lynas Corp) has 2.44 per cent of its rare earths made up by samarium.

     

    That may sound small, but when you compare the huge Baiyunebo rare earths mine in Inner Mongolia, with its 1.15 per cent samarium, and the Mountain Pass mine in California with 0.8 per cent, then you can see how Australia is poised to take advantage of this.

     

    It will certainly help the economics of the Australian projects and the Japanese press reports about the Toshiba development make mention of Australia as one potential source of samarium.

     

    Magnets are the fastest growing demand sector in rare earths, accounting for 24 per cent of consumption. These magnets allow the miniaturization of electronic products and electric motors such as earphones, smartphones as well as hard-disk drives, and are used significantly in hybrid electric vehicles and wind turbines.
    http://tinyurl.com/cqy...
    ---
    Another take on the development:

     

    August 16, 2012 - Toshiba develops dysprosium free samarium cobalt magnet to replace 'heat-resistant neodymium magnets'. From: Phys.org.

     

    The traction motors for hybrid and electric automobiles, railroad vehicles, and the motors for industrial equipment operate at relatively high temperatures, and heat-resistant neodymium magnets are generally used in these applications. However, sources of dysprosium are limited, and recent export limitations [China] and price rises [China] are raising global concerns about future shortages. In these circumstances, the development of dysprosium-free high performance magnets that offer a strong magnetic force at high operating temperatures is an important objective for the industry.

     

    Toshiba has used heat-treatment technology to improve the magnetic force of the samarium-cobalt magnet, and in doing so, has boosted its performance to a level SURPASSING [my emphasis] that of the heat-resistant neodymium magnet. The high-iron concentration samarium-cobalt magnet exceeds the heat-resistant neodymium magnet in magnetic force by 1% at an operating temperature of 100°C by, and 5% at, 150°C.

     

    Toshiba has verified the performance of the new magnet when applied in motors for automobiles, locomotives, machine tools and elevators, confirming that it has almost the same capabilities as heat-resistant neodymium magnets of the same size. The magnet is highly suited to motors that must combine high heat resistance with high performance and a small size. The company aims to start mass production of the magnet at the end of the current fiscal year and promote its use in all applicable equipment. http://tinyurl.com/8ap...
    18 Aug 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Great find FPA!

     

    Now if Lynas could just get an advanced plant operational ...

     

    Even GWM might get a little lift as they report 0.0128, 1.2786, 0.5345 for Min (wt.%), Max (wt. %) and Mean (wt. %), respectively, in their June assay results PR.

     

    http://mwne.ws/Lx95VW

     

    The percentages are just slightly better than run-of-the mill and they won't be doing the tonnage of Lynas and others, but every little bit helps. With the new exploration granted, maybe the potential tonnage grows and they find similar samarium grades embedded in the new areas too.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • I thought it was interesting HT... The biggest impact might be to mines that had higher numbers on Neodymium which is much more expensive. Given that samarium is cheaper, I would think manufacturers would substitute sanarium. I suppose Toshiba's process is proprietary, but Toshiba is a big player all by themselves. I was thinking it would hit the bottom line a bit on Moly's mine to magnet strategy that was more dependent on selling high priced Neodymium.
    Meanwhile, we are stuck in that all too familiar watching paint drying mode.
    18 Aug 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • FPA: there were some qualifying words, like "almost" here and there. Unaddressed, IIRC, was longevity (makes sense - that takes time), manufacturability (although they did say they would start producing by EOY), scale of production, ...

     

    If they make substantial penetration, it's natural the competing products' prices would "correct", possibly making the samarian-cobalt magnets less advantageous as current magnets would become less expensive. Thinking about it, just the announcement might have that effect, making production of the new magnets superfluous as the desired goal, equivalent performance at a lower price, will have been achieved without ever having to produce a new magnet in a factory.

     

    "Inscrutable"?!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Aug 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • Should check out the comment from Gareth Hatch at the bottom of the page. He calls it an "interesting" announcement from Toshiba because samarium-cobalt magnets have been around for forty years and that the cobalt cost was the impetus to switch to iron-based magnets using Nd. (--summary of his comment)

     

    Appreciate the links.
    18 Aug 2012, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • "Now if Lynas could just get an advanced plant operational ..."

     

    http://bit.ly/nPJlrM
    18 Aug 2012, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Gareth is correct. And the primary supplier of Cobalt is an area in Africa so downtrodden by nasty genocide that many call Cobalt a "conflict" metal (referring of course to the infamous diamonds which represent "blood traffic" to the more moral observers).

     

    Without the political dimentions driving a transitory (and troubling) supply of cheap Cobalt...

     

    Next examine the concept that prices for Cobalt (inherently a very expensive mineral which will eventually become both much more expensive and harder to get) and samarium are low because demand is low due to the other rare earth magnets being superior. There has never been much doubt that it is possible to design a less successful model to save costs...

     

    More demand for cobalt and samarium will mean higher prices for both.
    19 Aug 2012, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Adding LYSDY At $.68x...

     

    TAMO trade with $.12- and $.15+ channel is alive and well...

     

    Sandstorm (particularly Canadian warrants) is surging.
    21 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • I had to move out of LYSDY this morning... Hope to move back in soon.
    21 Aug 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Seems to me when things turn for Lynas, they'll do it in a hurry. Down 2¢ in Oz last night. US$0.67 in Frankfurt right now. As the (about to be) first mover in REEs, this is really hard to fathom.
    22 Aug 2012, 09:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The political and geopolitical factors are at work. Lynas is likely to lose its first mover potential (may already be lost, depending on the TOL, IF it ever arrives).

     

    My current opinion is that the clock is likely to start again sometime in mid-November. Between now and then we will see additional funding, which as we see the capital erosion accelerate looks more and more like pure dilution (which is the snake swallowing its tail when it comes to current share price). Complete writeoff of the LAMP is already baked in at $.74. At current prices we are seeing the potential dilution dialing in, and if they need another $200million, I would think we could see something under $.60 soon...

     

    The fact that Lynas has NOT laid off the 400+ Malaysians watching paint dry at the LAMP was at first encouraging (surely they would not sustain this cash burn unless the TOL was imminent), but now it just looks like another symptom of being held political hostage to the Malay government.

     

    The lack of guidance from NC leads me to expect further silence through the end of his "...by the end of August" estimate for first feed to LAMP. He will probably trot out a hired PR "rare earth expert" to interview him to feed us some more moonbeams toward the end of this month...

     

    Until the Malay government starts polling better in the two contested legislative seats near the LAMP, we can expect no movement, imo.

     

    I have sold off the last of my LYSCF in anticipation of re-entering downstream near the eventual bottom, wherever that might be, after the LAMP is in operation.

     

    GLTA.
    22 Aug 2012, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • "lack of guidance from NC "

     

    TB, you could be right, but I have figured that the silence was to avoid disrupting any twitchy negotiations. Not sure if true or not, but there have rumors on HC and elsewhere about the Australian government's getting involved in the Malaysia/Lynas situation.
    22 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » WA's government is definitely involved. They are saying "NO", loud and clear, about taking any residual (and extremely mildly radioactive) waste back from the WA ore processed at the LAMP. If there is an actual (vs politically motivated) stumbling block, this is it. The word from the central Aussie government backs up the WA stance.

     

    Now if the hope was that they are going to bat for Lynas, that would be something I would class as "unlikely". NC moved the LAMP offshore to avoid Australian taxes, so their fair-haired homeboy he is not...

     

    I would class such rumors as "wishful thinking". The recent fair trade agreement enacted between the two governments was finalized on Malaysia's terms, with Australia being the one making concessions. If the Malaysian government views themselves as in the driver's seat regarding the LAMP, nothing the Australian government has done would argue with that interpretation.
    22 Aug 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • Trip: That's my plan. Wait until after the next cap raise, then buy.
    22 Aug 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Ungawah: I just read over my response, and I was a tad rude. Sorry about that, I try not to let anger bleed over into my commentary...

     

    I would buy that NC is keeping quiet while he is negotiating with the Malaysians - this has been the case throughout the last 2 years, really. I just think that he's in a weak bargaining position.

     

    Now, rumors that large German customers of Lynas with big footprints (and plans) in Malaysia are getting impatient MIGHT have an effect, but I keep circling back to the idea that we are dealing with politicians worrying about their personal power/rice bowl.
    22 Aug 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    I think that is a good plan, but it may be too anticipated. Lynas will capital raise at this point no matter when they grant the TOL. But the capital raise is so obvious I think it will reduce the pop when they are approved. Likewise, once the capital raise is discussed and the numbers can be guesstimated I expect the stock to rise (similar to when Mount Kellett came in). Of course, in the meantime, the share price sags on fears of no TOL and a bond holder wipe out of the equity. The problem with that conclusion is it makes no sense under international law. And for the most part I choose a sensible international law interpretation over a general political point of view on the subject. Thus, I conclude the TOL will get approved and the equity survives with some cap on the upside. Just my thoughts
    23 Aug 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Chi: Thanks!
    23 Aug 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • Honestly, NC has proven to me that he has absolutely zero control of the LAMP situation.
    23 Aug 2012, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • JPMorgan puts 8.50 target on MCP
    21 Aug 2012, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » MS has no friends under the JPM roof...
    21 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • And what was the high JPM target last year? And do they do a mea culpa on the total difference in the analysis since then? Doubt it. Don't get me wrong, changing with the facts is fine. But if we took the two reports next to each other, how much that they now hate was known last year? And how much that they loved remains this year? When I look at things like this I often feel the reports are driven by the momentum in the stock and the FA is pasted in. Let's face it, analysts are at an all time low in terms of quality IMO.
    23 Aug 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • According to Bloomberg Businessweek, China is increasing its REE export quotas by 2.7%. Not good for our faves.
    22 Aug 2012, 03:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL, if the Chinese had actually been shipping what they THOUGHT they were shipping, the world would be screaming for REEs. The quotas are a mirage.

     

    The numbers set forth in the quotas also have nothing to do with the numbers which can be expected from the companies which have been authorized to get a quota, plus those that have passed all the requirements. With the new environmental regulations, many potential suppliers will fail to export their quotas.

     

    Even assuming China ships every ounce set in quotas, IF that is all that they ship, shortages will result in the future (and that future could be sooner than we think for some elements).

     

    I believe they have a much better handle on all the smuggling which has occurred over the past 12 months.
    22 Aug 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the positive pep. Malaysia is really annoying me for reasons we all know. I have a hard time understanding if Lynas has conformed and submitted everything on their end, what is the hold up?
    I don't think this could have ever been predicted.
    I'm still holding and still buying good quality rare earth mines.
    22 Aug 2012, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • Today's WSJ also has the story http://on.wsj.com/PIElrh

     

    Lynas gets mentioned mainly regarding the price of lanthanum. Mark Smith is quoted saying: "export quotas are not all that meaningful anymore." Could put more pressure on stock prices today.
    23 Aug 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • As much as I hate to do so, I sold off my entire Lynas holding just now at a loss.

     

    It wasn't huge, and I'm going to keep the money on the sidelines to trade some other stocks, and buy in again at a lower point.

     

    I don't see anywhere but south for the moment, despite my long term bullishness on the company's future.
    23 Aug 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/SY08JS

     

    Large holder of MCP common just got larger...
    23 Aug 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New 8k for Moly: http://bit.ly/SY0pMZ
    23 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » 8k contains details of new MCP funding, very complex, essential reading for due diligence...
    23 Aug 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Adding Sandstorm (SAND) on the dip following yesterday's funding from stock sale. As a wise man once told me, "You don't dilute a glass of beer with a shot of whiskey". Sandstorm is using this money to make deals which add value to the company mid and long term...

     

    Added a few more shares of LYSDY...
    23 Aug 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • TB,

     

    Thanks for the tip on SAND. I am looking to enter.

     

    Any thoughts on Silvercrest (PINK:STVZF), which is going over to NYSE next week?
    23 Aug 2012, 03:38 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » In general terms I like Mexican pm mines, and Silvercrest has a good one with just about 5 years of life of mine remaining (of operations of the open pit, presumably they might convert to hard rock mining at some point deeper).

     

    Some recent financial data: http://bit.ly/PfcgW6

     

    The decline in Operating Cash Flow (down 41%, $7.2m vs $12.2m or $.14/share) was caused by lower gold/silver prices and due to their deposit of large quantities into their "Hedging Facility". This sort of activity was something which I predicted would occur as the prices for physical metal (currently silver, but potentially any metal) were artificailly suppressed. As more producers release less of their production and store more of it in their vaults, supplies will begin to run behind demand levels and could even create spot shortages of the physical metal if it goes on long enough.

     

    I have been avoiding the silver miners since the manipulation disaster last year, but I track the industry constantly. I will raise my awareness of STVZF SMarturin, and I thank you for bringing it to our attention.

     

    Aside from the macro situation, I see Silvercrest as a good medium term investment, particularly if they can maintain their production gains and IF prices for silver and gold improve.

     

    Their uplisting to the NYSE may help their visibility, but is not (in and of itself) enough to entice me to invest at this time. Unless silver can climb above $32 and show a strong channel above that level, I will continue to observe both the miners like AG and Silvercrest, and SLW.
    23 Aug 2012, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks, TB.

     

    I first heard about Silvercrest here: http://bit.ly/Q5daIR

     

    His thesis is that it may be a gold play as much as a silver play.
    23 Aug 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No doubt about it. Right now they are earning a considerable percentage of their total from gold (common with many mines in that region). I would anticipate that higher prices will help their next quarterly report, depending on how they handle their "hedge".
    23 Aug 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Hot Port for IPOs: Malaysia
    Market Surges as Investors Snap Up a String of Debuts; Economy Is Strong

     

    http://on.wsj.com/QuTcBT
    23 Aug 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Given my Malaysia / Lynas experience, I interpret the article as a generic pump. Something to kick up interest in the sale of Malaysia related IPOs (poisoned bait).
    23 Aug 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • TB: (HREEF): Is this enough to cause another run in Stans?

     

    Stans Energy Announces Commencement of 2012 Exploration Drilling at Kutessay II

     

    http://bit.ly/PJsngZ

     

    Trying to "unblind the prior 50/50 heavy/light areas and hoping to add more in unexplored areas to extend the potential.

     

    Stan's still down 5%+ ($0.4299) today, so I guess not enough.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Drill results with good numbers would be necessary. Just looking at this point won't do much...
    23 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • This may be hard to believe from the Lynas perspective..... But a friend of mine is an oil and gas lawyer in Houston. We had a lunch a while back. He knows my frustration with Malaysia. The guys in his firm all said emphatically "Any 'stan that is not Pak or Kazakhstan is WAY worse than anything else in Asia." I mentioned Kyrgystan and HREE in the conversation... They said "Oil, idiots and corruption. Forget it." Just another perspective. DYOR
    23 Aug 2012, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » HREEF is a trade, and not a long cycle trade, until and unless they show actual accomplishments. Right now they are struggling to get the local legislature to accept their existing license, something which is not dissimilar to the Lynas/Malaysia mess.

     

    I don't view HREEF as a viable long term investment, though I do trade in and out when I spot an opportunity.
    23 Aug 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • It might be worthwhile to wait to see if the Germans are successful in their resource investing in Kazakhstan. They might develop a track record which could show us what works for trading in that part of the world and what doesn't.
    http://bit.ly/QvzndC
    http://1.usa.gov/NjxEOh
    23 Aug 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • I follow TB's lead on this - just a trade. He has reliably ID'd opportunities and so I try and keep an eye out.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Aug 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • The LYSDY - LYSCF spread is nothing new. But as the share price gets smaller and the spread stays similar we get some strange numbers.
    With the LYSDY bid at $0.63 and the LYSCF ask at $0.69 there is nearly a 10% gap on the pinks for the same company. I am not use to seeing that. Not sure it matters, but it does look odd to me.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » My experience has been that arbitrage is available, but the big gap orders don't execute.
    24 Aug 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • UAMY -- I guess that SA article took some wind out of its sails.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Aug 2012, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yep. Its the rare earth story without the headlines. China monopoly with cartel forming... Check. Limited market sensative to geopolitical manipulation (China, primarily)... Check. No backward looking financial history (primarily because most of the industry was trashed when China grabbed control and ran the competition into the ground to gain a monopoly)... Check. Slowly dawning realization among the herd of cow-like Western leaders that "...something needs to be done..." Check. History a few years back of the mothballed mine being valued at a very low price (China was selling antimony at insanely low prices, remember)... Check.

     

    But also...

     

    China now installing actual environmental rules, creating a cartel, installing real accounting limits, cracking down (and NOBODY cracks down like the ChiComs) on illegal smuggling, and establishing a national stockpile...

     

    Sure, its a wild, speculative situation. Like most other strategic metals and minerals, this one has been slammed to the mat by the massive sector rotation sucking money out of the area as the altenergy whales depart.

     

    Antimony prices, unlike the more common rare earths, have held fairly strong. If anything they are now trending upward, and the prospects for increased supply from China are cloudy.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • Speaking of antimony and other strategic metals, here's an article from last month that shows China's dominance.

     

    http://bit.ly/MRyr7x
    26 Aug 2012, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Silvercorp..reluctantly discloses lower resources and grades for key sgx mine:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    24 Aug 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Does anyone have an opinion on TUC resources?
    Saw this over on rare metal blog.

     

    http://bit.ly/OAWVjL
    24 Aug 2012, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I saw that one too. I don't know anything about them other than the contents of the article, though...
    24 Aug 2012, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • I am surprised no one posted about this yet. Molycorp starts Heavy Rare Earth processing at Mountain Pass. AH they were up almost 6%.

     

    http://buswk.co/RTg31k
    27 Aug 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sorry, I was working a show and taking care of none-SA business!

     

    I am not surprised that MCP is doing this, though it is occurring earlier than I had expected. They have promised the DOD over 7kmt per year, and that would have to include the heavies the defense industry require.

     

    I still distrust AH trading as a general rule, but this look like it might act as a catalyst. MCP insiders have been buying stock recently, too...
    27 Aug 2012, 10:00 PM Reply Like
  • This was interesting.
    Jack was not impressed (in the comments). But at nearly a 13% increase on 18.6 million shares I'd say Moly carried the day. Good luck Moly longs. I hold no Moly position.
    28 Aug 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/RpT1wy

     

    Momentous Lynas news downunder. Phase 1 of the LAMP is officially complete.

     

    The reaction to this news on the ASX exchange was amazing...

     

    The share price stayed flat as a board at abysmal lows.

     

    One could draw the conclusion from this that everyone had assumed that Phase 1 construction was completed and waiting for a flock of Malay politicians to push the button allowing the plant to actually DO something...

     

    Still, congratulations to our dear corporate management, for constructing what looks to become a national monument to the Malay luddite cause. Perhaps they should paint the entire facility a nice, bright, shade of lime green.
    28 Aug 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Time to lay everyone off.
    28 Aug 2012, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/RVk5X7

     

    Editorial about Malay politics and Lynas.

     

    The Venezuela of Asia for investors.
    28 Aug 2012, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • "The Venezuela of Asia for investors."

     

    maybe they will start showing up on the KIVA site soon needing loans.
    28 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting article, especially the comments from Jack Wu, who's opinion is that Lynas, Great Western, Northern Minerals and a slew of other Aussie REE miners will be bought up by the Chinese within the next 18 months.

     

    Maybe he's talking bollocks, maybe not, but Western politicians are proving themselves every day to be more than happy to sell off the family silver to China.
    29 Aug 2012, 06:15 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Australia already refused to allow Lynas' sale to the Chinese (that was NC's original plan). Canada did the same when Americans tried to buy GWM (unlikely that they would subsequently agree to allow the Chinese to do it). Northern has Lynas as one of its largest shareholders...

     

    I believe Wu is just spouting nonsense.
    29 Aug 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas up to almost US$0.735 in Frankfurt at the moment. It was up in Oz as we slept. That announcement did some good.
    29 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I think so. It looks like the markets waited to see if Lynas' statements were contradicted by the Malaysians before accepting them. Silence from the Malays opened the door for an increase.
    29 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • I'm still waiting on the sidelines with the money I cashed out of Lynas before going back in. I don't believe anything concrete will happen for the moment, and I got fed up seeing the shares fall.

     

    Could be wrong though (and have been a lot recently)
    29 Aug 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • I'm starting to look at putting some money back into the sector again, but want to focus on a few companies that are most likely to produce HREE's.

     

    I've been away from this for a few months, so am off the latest happenings, but I'm doing some research now, and am sniffing around the following:

     

    Ucore
    Quest
    Tasman

     

    This would be in addition to my holdings in Great Western and Lynas (when I buy back in).

     

    Still can't bring myself to buy into Molycorp at almost ten bucks a share..

     

    Am I barking up the right tree with these, missing any, or way off the mark?

     

    Cheers guys and gals, and sorry for the dumb question!

     

    Cheers,

     

    Nick
    29 Aug 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • For heavies, I really like Quest and Tasman. I like Northern Minerals (NTU) as my wild card.
    29 Aug 2012, 11:59 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The argument for UCore and Tasman has to include their political support, which is powerful.

     

    Quest is still a takeover candidate waiting for a suitor, IMO.

     

    The jokers in the deck are Lynas and MCP. In both cases they have very small percentages of heavies in their mix, but the equation needs to be carried out to the end. Just as having a very high percentage of heavies in a very LOW percentage deposit (such as TAS) requires the mining, sorting, processing and separation of megatons of waste to get the goodies, major Light deposits are actually quite comparable, with the major difference being that they can finance their operations from selling the lighter range elements. In their case, the heavies are a byproduct...

     

    As Jack Lifton has pointed out, we lack specifics as to how Lynas and MCP plan to accomplish these HREE tasks.

     

    Assuming that they figure it out, both companies can take very small percentage heavies out of their massive total run size and reach substantial Heavy output (though it will represent a small fraction of their totals).

     

    In the end what matters is whether or not .002 of 40,000,000,000 kilograms of rare earth production (ie, 80,000 kilograms) of heavies is a significant portion of the current world demand.

     

    This assumes that the standard mix for Mountain Pass is going to be their source, rather than running from some richer source.
    29 Aug 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Pardon, should read "40,000,000 kilograms".
    29 Aug 2012, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks guys.

     

    Do you believe even a quarter of the hype surrounding Molycorp's production, or do you think it's just guff?

     

    Although I don't want to buy stock in the company, I still think a couple of options are worth a punt.
    29 Aug 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/OqI6QC

     

    MCP closes funding.
    29 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • The pfd, up 9.5% today, has caught up to the gain in the common. I'd like to think my article is partly responsible, but I know better :) It's just the afterglow of the offering (read: brokerage manipulation, er, "stabilization.")
    29 Aug 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Not sure what to make of this... (and my apologies if it's already been covered)

     

    http://bit.ly/POpKLz

     

    Go to Post #815181, about 3/4 down the page.

     

    To quote:

     

    In reply to post #814922 from chillam

     

    Hi All long term Investors,

     

    Personally I was puzzled as to why our Chairman/CEO came out with an announcement to the market yesterday that Phase 1 of the LAMP was complete. We had all been assured that this was the case or very close to being so during the Investor Relations call on the 31st of July.

     

    I am a curious soul so I had another careful read of that darned Mt Kellett bond agreement.

     

    Guess what I found boys and girls there is a restrictive covenant in the agreement that prohibits Lynas from entering into any other loan arrangements until Phase 1 is declared complete.

     

    Five business days after Lynas makes such a declaration and Mt Kellett being satisfied that this is so then the covenant is lifted. Mt Kellett cannot "unreasonably withold consent" to remove the covenant.

     

    This places Lynas in a much better financial position as the company can now source bank or joint venture finance to progress drilling and metallurgical test work at Duncan,Crown, Coors & Swan and prepare bankable feasability studies to progress these projects within the Mt Weld tenement.

     

    regards

     

    Ben Graham
    Good Luck to All Holders

     

    2012-08-29 : Open: $0.665 | Close: $0.710 Movement: Up $0.050 | Percent Change: Up 7.58%
    Price When Posted: $0.710 | Percent Change Since Posted: No Change

     

    Now, what does that mean?

     

    Phase 1 is complete, or it's not. If it is, great. If not, it's a ruse to secure more funds to keep themselves going whilst the Malaysians kill their cashflow whilst deciding what the f**k they want to do?

     

    I'm still holding off from buying back in, despite today's bright pop in the share price.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • I would take this at face value.
    29 Aug 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Phase 1 was complete earlier, but this formal announcement has, indeed, the added effect of clearing the path for the future funding Lynas will be needing Q4 (Q1 2013 at the latest, imo).

     

    If NC plans to go back to da Boyz in New York for the new funding, this is simply a minor point crossing a "t".

     

    NC's chief contribution to Lynas is his very capable handling of financial deals. Its his primary talent. If we can drag the share price back to around $1 before they have to raise more money, we have a good chance of avoiding some really nasty dilution.

     

    Now, as soon as NC's utility dickering with da Boyz is over, we should throw him and the rest of upper management to the sharks...
    29 Aug 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • You still out of Lynas mate, or did you buy back in?
    29 Aug 2012, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I sold off LYSCF. I continue to be long LYSDY... I had been trading out of LYSCF because my primary trading platforms charge high ASX fees for every trade. The recent nastiness presented an opportunity to sign off on the last of the LYSCF, and use that money elsewhere.
    29 Aug 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Ahh, now I see..
    29 Aug 2012, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL, Lynas is working hard to give back all its gains from last night on the ASX, down A$.035 right now on strong volume.

     

    No particular news I could find to explain any change... Perhaps it has occurred to more folks that the "good news release" essentially promised another round of funding (indirectly, as Nick and I discussed upstream in this blog earlier).
    29 Aug 2012, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • Frustrating! Could this be the reason? I think not.

     

    'Kuantan residents have been granted leave to challenge the science, technology and innovation minister’s decision to grant rare earth mining company Lynas Corp a temporary operating licence (TOL).'

     

    I just hope this isn't used as an excuse to delay the TOL.

     

    http://bit.ly/UcpQNv
    29 Aug 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Could be. The right to complain was never ceded by anyone.

     

    Lynas news about their industrial waste plans was positive, however:

     

    http://bit.ly/PyRWhs

     

    COULD the high court issue an injunction to block the LAMP? Certainly appears possible to me. This could well represent the bridge strategy needed to delay things until after the elections.

     

    My problem is attempting to discern whether this is being put forward by Lynas' political Malaysian enemies or friends? Both have the same self serving motive...
    30 Aug 2012, 08:02 AM Reply Like
  • My wife believes if the words "people, republic, or democratic" appear in the country's name you can be sure the country is NOT democratic, a republic, or for the people. She feels a government is either corrupt or not and they will bend the political and government structure any way they want if they are corrupt.

     

    Injunction, executive order, or what not, if Malaysia wants to kill the LAMP opportunity, they can. And if inertia till election is the method so be it. The choice is theirs and the risk is ours as shareholders. They is the nature of political risk. I understand why others sell out of that risk. And I understand why I am holding for the possible reward.
    30 Aug 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • GWM quarterlies came out. LCM lost money this quarter.
    29 Aug 2012, 10:01 PM Reply Like
  • But how can this happen with the new furnace and Wwwater's numbers?

     

    It looks like Gross Margins and EBITDA do not work well at current prices.The three month reduction is an amplification of the REE price drop during the period when compared with the six month story. I wonder if prices crossed any key thresholds.

     

    I find Engdahl's comments odd since the bond funding is three months old and the three month look is very different than the six month view, why comment on the six month view only?

     

    Combine the bond funding, with the Steen progress and this report and the risks are easier to understand. DYODD
    29 Aug 2012, 10:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » About 6 months ago GWM made a bet (that prices were heading up, perhaps) and bought a lot of Chinese feedstock which turned out to be overpriced. As this WIP is marked down, and as the finished goods drop in value, the price pressure is apparent.
    30 Aug 2012, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • OK TB,
    If that is the case, there is no reason for Engdahl not to put that in his comments on these numbers.
    In full candor, I don't buy that personally but DYODD.
    30 Aug 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • "Lynas ready to move into industrial scale"

     

    http://bit.ly/PFbCQw

     

    This story, maybe a longer version, sparked a lot of interest on HC last night.
    31 Aug 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Lynas wants to keep all Malaysian hires for now and continue with the phase 2 build.

     

    http://bit.ly/PEXFU2
    4 Sep 2012, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • (LYSCF): New SA article, "Buy Lynas: Intriguing Hybrid Asset Class"

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Sep 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Lynas has indeed dropped below $.60, as I suspected it would. My estimate was that $.59 would start to price in the next round of funding, assuming it was about $200million.

     

    Now we discover just how low it will go. At these levels support from da boyz in NY or Tokyo would include them arriving at the meetings with NC bearing baseball bats, so its unlikely that NC will be cutting any deals until after the TOL is received and some material put through the LAMP.

     

    With pricing below even a large funding resulting in direct dilution, I would hesitate to enter the stock at this time.

     

    Now that Lynas is once again valued below $1billion, it must also be viewed as a potential takeover candidate. Given the prevailing conditions and risks, it would not garner a large premium to the market, however, which might mean that it would represent a great bargain to the purchaser, but no benefit to longs.
    4 Sep 2012, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LOL, with the arrival of the TOL, I WOULD encourage entry for those who have been waiting for this event.

     

    Prices in the $.80's are likely at the open, given events in Europe.
    5 Sep 2012, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • 5 September, 2012
    LYNAS RECEIVES TEMPORARY OPERATING LICENCE
    Lynas Corporation (LYSDY) confirms that the Malaysian Atomic Energy Licensing Board [AELB] has today issued the Temporary Operating LIcence [TOL] for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant [LAMP].

     

    Receipt of the TOL enables Lynas to commence the transport of rare earths concentrate and to complete all necessary steps to prepare for the first feed to kiln, which is expected in October.
    ---
    This was posted on the OZ exchange this morning.

     

    Sing Sing Sing!!
    http://tinyurl.com/cof...
    5 Sep 2012, 04:25 AM Reply Like
  • More breaking info...
    The temporary operating license will be for two years from Sept 3 this year to Sept 2, 2014.

     

    The Atomic Energy Licensing Board said “The TOL will enable Lynas to conduct trial processing of lanthanide concentrates in stages and in limited quantities under close and continuous surveillance by the authorities."

     

    “The Board at its meeting on Sept 3 was satisfied that Lynas had fulfilled all technical aspects." This included the institution of dust control measures and radioactivity immobilization methodologies in its residue management system, and all regulatory requirements.

     

    “The Board also took note that Lynas has made a commitment to remove from Malaysia the Water Leach Purification residue arising from its LAMP project,” he added.
    5 Sep 2012, 05:12 AM Reply Like
  • Lots of rejoicing in Oz. Glad I bought a little more yesterday. Wonder what it'll do for us today. Lots of support here helped to keep the faith.

     

    US$0.88 in Frankfurt right now.
    5 Sep 2012, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • Very well said ungawah: " Lots of support here" really did help in keeping the long-term view I have kept on my Lynas position. Thanks everyone. I am under no delusion that the next 2 years will be free of politics/challenges -- but this is a great milestone achieved.
    5 Sep 2012, 07:53 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Excellent. I am VERY bemused that Lynas managed to hit every downslope milestone I could identify...

     

    Now if they can only hit the same list of upslope milestones I have compiled over the years.

     

    Thanks to all who have participated here.
    5 Sep 2012, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Yes, many of us would have bailed if it hadn't been for all the research, sage advice and perseverance of people here.

     

    Some people put in a whole lot of effort on this project.

     

    Thank you!
    5 Sep 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Wow, Congrats Lynas! Let the show begin.
    5 Sep 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » OK, LYSDY hit $.95 briefly at the open, now trading in the $.80's...

     

    No regrets for switching over to LYSDY, though its times like this when I wish I still had my old account where I could trade the ASX cheaply...

     

    It would appear that Lynas has taken over the role of "oxygen consumer" from MCP, for I am seeing both Moly and GWM dropping this morning as Lynas surges.

     

    The rare earth pond is still very small and shallow, and the reaction of events affecting any of the larger frogs can easily put the others underwater.
    5 Sep 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » http://bit.ly/NRA3u1

     

    This is a situation to watch. This could be the basis for the next sector upheaval...
    5 Sep 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • No question this is significant derisking to Lynas. I think this is a great development for all of the REE stocks. This opens the door to reliable supply and new technologies from there. The future for Lynas and the sector just greatly improved.
    Many have asked me privately and know, I currently hold my largest position ever in Lynas. Honestly, this junior has been the hardest one I've built a position in as an investor. And no, I am an investor, and will not be trading shares today. I will continue to buy dips only. I believe in the future of rare earths more than ever and Lynas remains my preferred play in the sector.
    5 Sep 2012, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYC downunder is going for about $.928 premarket (around A$.91), with 320k changing hands, but we will see what happens after the market opens.

     

    I would think that we would see a morning spike, perhaps over $1, with some easing as the price stabilizes later in the afternoon.
    5 Sep 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYC now around A$.78.

     

    Institutional sellers seem to be in the driver's seat. Wild volatility and volume at 90million shares already.
    5 Sep 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYC just bottomed at A$.77, and bounced hard. 50% appx retrace, doubtless to shake loose the small fry (eerily reminiscent of several similar "flash crash" spikes for this stock on the ASX over the past year)...

     

    Never a dull moment when the whales are jerking the markets around on puppet strings.
    5 Sep 2012, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » LYC closed at A$.84, $.86 American, or essentially the same as the LYSDY close of $.85. I anticipate a flat open for LYSDY this morning, and a drop to $.86 at open for LYSCF from $.87.
    6 Sep 2012, 06:40 AM Reply Like
  • US$0.875 in Frankfurt right now Volume at less than 800k at 1:25 PM there.
    6 Sep 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » In line with currency exchange rates. Its odd for the American pinks to end up leading at this point, but there we are...

     

    Follow on announcements from Lynas (shipment of stockpiled ore from WA... Reopening Mount Weld mine operations... First feed at LAMP...) will be the immediate future events.
    6 Sep 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I just deleted a post on this blog, which is an extremely rare occurance, but this was a most unusual case. My apologies for any disruption this may cause, but I felt it was a necessary action.
    6 Sep 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New Concentrator is this way:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Sep 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
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