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FOREX & FUTURES day & swing trader.
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  • Gold for Bears: Triple Channel Gold Top Projection 0 comments
    Nov 23, 2011 8:47 AM

    Here is another idea of a gold long term top.

    Long term Gold Top Projection
    Key points:
    1. The bottom must be 430
    2. There must be a head & shoulders pattern
    3. There must be some sort of retest (i.e. suckers rally or "return to normal" phase of a bubble burst)
    All these key points are included in the projection.

    First, lets see how we draw the channel. It is based on 2 highs , one in 2006, another this year, both make a double channel hit, which is a reversal pattern. The March 2008 high left a gap, and it is the explanation of another rise up to 1900 from 2008. Once we have the channel, we replicate it 2 times to the right. I have seen gold trading triple channels, before they are broken, so we can do this.
    As you can see, today we are trading in the middle of the channel. Once the middle channel is worked out (Dec or Jan, not sure), we should drop quickly on to the 30 year channel line (discussed previously in my long term posts) which is around 1080 level. It is a good support, so we must have a rally from there, which can extend up to 1434, this would be a retest of broken trend and also the channel. From that level we should have a wild selling into 550-560 level, and further bottom into 430. The whole move would last 13 months , starting from December 2011, and when ended, would paint a Head & Shoulders pattern.
    My previous gold bear projections where more "oil"-like, this one is more "gold"-like, i.e oil can sell  100 bucks in 6 months, but for gold it is not  very common to crash so smooth.

    Note: the thin lines in the middle of each channel are the median lines (they are dotted, for those who have good sight)

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