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  • EUR/USD: Weekly update 1 comment
    Dec 4, 2011 8:56 AM
    This is an update on my long term EUR/USD projection
    eruo long term weekly

    There are few points to comment:
    Last week is a bottom formation without confirmation, so next week is going to be decisive for the trend. We have 2 paths here, either confirm the bottom and retrace to 1.40 into year end, with the crash resuming next year. Or crash hardly and create a bullish reversal yearly candle. Since the trend is monthly-bearish crash is more likely than not-crash. So, if the crash happens, it should have a duration into the third week of january. As you can see, there are nice weekly channels on the chart. Channel intersection is matching last 2 cycle dates, this where my 3rd week of january date comes from. 

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  • Author’s reply » i found an error in here. the 3rd cycle date is not 3rd week of january , it is the last week of february (i.e the end of the move). I just read an email from Steve Sjuggerud advicing to short the dollar for 2 months. That gives exactly my top date for the dollar. It is not that I am trading a contrarian against Steve, he gives good calls, but I think this one is not the case. Last week the dollar broke above 80, which on EUR/USD is 1.3050 and it is confirming the break. The trend is weak, but it is technically valid.
    19 Dec 2011, 10:10 AM Reply Like
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