Quick introduction: Charting the end of secular bull market, long term charts here
On Tuesday gold have made a failed attempt to break above pivotal resistance point 1250. First first it was London, with a high at 1254, then it was NY with a high at 1253. Last month we only reached 1249, so I think that this month we were closing the 1 dollar buck gap. On the weekly, last 2 weeks were inside-week trading, they don't account for trend change. The week before those 2 we had a down closed week and so, we are still technically in a weekly downtrend, unless we close this week up. If the trend is bearish Friday must be a down close, and if that confirms, we have made a long term top.
On the daily we have a Doji, and 2 consecutive down closes. This is more than enough to confirm that the daily trend is down. The channeling at this time looks like this:
In case of achieving a weekly trend reversal, we would break the uptrend (blue) and end in the area of 1160-1180, just above the support line (green)
There are few weak points in this setup you have to watch out:
First, we got above the larger downtrend channel, so there is still a possibility we can bounce higher and break above 1250. Second, the 1220 support was broken, but not decisively It is still technically possible to break above 1250. If there is going to be a trend, friday is perfect.
Now, goldbugs have noted today that gold is going down. In a bear trend NY guys may drive it up at the first hours of the day and then close down, on the 4 hours chart it looks like 1233 is still within the downtrend channel.
If there is no trend decision tomorrow, then we may extend the trading range for much more at current levels.
Disclosure: Short gold and silver
Gold for Bears: Daily update for 10 Jun
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