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FOREX & FUTURES day & swing trader.
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Ker Trading
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Ker's Market Patterns
  • Gold for Bears: Daily update for 8 Aug 5 comments
    Aug 8, 2010 7:29 PM | about stocks: GLD, S

    Quick introduction: Charting the gold's bear market, long term charts here
    Last daily update: here

    Previously I have found a good channel alignment which I liked very much and we have been following it pretty well, but we never broke into the second lower half of it as I have been expecting. This is how it looks like right now:

    Now, big guys already noted that shorting gold could be profitable, and I beleive they took this chance of gold's pullback to 1200 to short some gold. This , and the other motive is that we had a lot of lag in gold's downside, I believe market is set to do a big move. Here we are talking about 150 point drop in about 2 weeks.
    The Elliot Wave count isn't  very clear right now, but if gold is going to make an impulsive wave down, it has to be the third one, so we probably concluded the 1st and 2nd waves, which are labeled. Right now we would do the third wave and after dropping to 1055 / 1045 we would do a correction to the middle channel line and have a stronger move (i beleive this would be wave 5) to break 1060 support for good. I recall, the 1066 level in gold is critical, it is the separator between long term bull and bear trend(as discussed in long term review)

    Watch out: if market breaks above the channel, you should cover all your shorts. 1222/1224 is the stop/loss level.


    Disclosure: Short of course
    Stocks: GLD, S
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  • ker.nulov@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » we have broken above the upper channel line. so, either the channel has the wrong size, or gold is going to 1245 or around. we can still go down and it could be a straight down move for about 20 days. I also found an expanding wedge on the daily that supports very strong downtrend.
    Got this top with a 4 buck stoploss, lets see if it works out.
    12 Aug 2010, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • justin_3d
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    I been out since Tuesday!

     

    Time for me to take my money, and step on the sidelines....
    14 Aug 2010, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • ker.nulov@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » yep, safe trade would be on break below 1150 and to 1060. everything else is risky.
    14 Aug 2010, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • ker.nulov@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (662) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It looks like gold couldn't make it to 1242, the maximum top it could achieve without breaking bear trend. So, I am looking for tomorrow to be the first downday and if we get that and a weekly down close there is a good chances to reach 1050 in about 3 weeks if not sooner.
    17 Aug 2010, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Analyste de Boston
    , contributor
    Comments (1361) | Send Message
     
    "...and if we get that and a weekly down close there is a good chances to reach 1050 in about 3 weeks if not sooner."

     

    What a TERRIBLE call. Wrong-way charley! Are you still calling Gold @$700 for December, as you posted all over the SA board last Spring? That would be a -46% retracement, in 3 months.

     

    9/30/10: Gold @ $1,300 (that's history, now.)
    1 Oct 2010, 05:18 PM Reply Like
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