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  • Marc Antony Vs McGonicle 0 comments
    Jan 19, 2013 4:38 AM
    • McGonicle:

      You are wrong. Have you looked at the history and find a 4 years long history of coal sector remain low? No such history exists. As I indicated repeated, the coal sector has short cycles, as the inventory space is relatively small compared to annual supply and demand.

      The coal sector can not stay low for 4 more years. That is not possible. Regardless on what happens on the demand side, the supply side has aggressively curtailed production to rebalance. The latest EIA weekly coal production is 17% lower than comparable week a year ago, yet power sector consumption of coal in Oct 2012 was only 4% lower than a year ago in Oct. 2011.

      The Oct, 2012 coal stockpile stood at 184.661M tons was much LOWER than where it was at 199.477M tons at the end of Oct. 2009. We all know what happened after the end of 2009. Coal rallied big in 2010 and early 2011. Now is time for a much better opportunity to invest in the coal sector, than later 2009 or later 2007.

      I was only wrong a bit in timing. The natural gas bottomed in early April as I expected. The coal sector bottomed at the end of August 2012, a few month later than I expected. I was also disappointed that the coal sector does not go up as fast as I expected. But it is clearly going up, with ups and downs.

      If you accuse me of causing people to lose money because they fllow me. Let me tell you that from day one I told every one if you hold a basket of a few coal names, and one of them goes belly up while the other bring you 3 fold, 5 fold, 10 fold profit, you are still way ahead of the market. I did loss quite a chunk of my portfolio in PCX bankruptcy. The folks who listened to me to hold PCX lost money as well. The loss is equally painful for me as for them.

      But the difference is I held my stand firm and put in my annual bonus and withdrew more fund from my 401K to purchase more coal shares in JRCC, ANR, ACI, and at much lower price as well thanks to the PCX bankruptcy. Looking back, because of the better buying opportunity due to PCX bankruptcy and my acquision of cheaper shares, I am now way ahead, as all these coal names are up from their end of August lows. Calculating everything together, I have a net GAIN attritable to PCX bankruptcy, not a net loss. The net result of PCX bankruptcy is bring opportunity to me, not bring harm to me. I am now in a better position, with more shares at hand, to enjoy the continued coal rally.

      The folks who follow me into PCX and suffered loss have only themselves to blame, they can not blame it on listening to me. They abandoned me exactly at the time when they needed to listen to me most, gave up at the bottom. Have them listened when I put more into coal after the PCX bankruptcy.Have they followed me? They have not. Giving up at the bottom is what 99% of people do.

      It's OK people don't listen to me any more. Some still does. The one thing that people lieast listen to me, is that I always encourage people to do their own DD following my example. They never did. They thought I have done my DD so they only needed to take my word as it is, without doing their own DD. But something you obtain cheaply, or even free, are not something you can hold on to. I learned that only when you do your own DD, will you have strong conviction to hold a position firm for long term gain.

      BTW, Seeking Alpha has finally banned me from even sending or receiving private messages in SA. I can not post instabogs or even comment on articles. They have imposed communism censorship on me because I said some truth that some vested interest group feared.

      I am using this other account to send you this message. If you don't want to hear my voice, you will not hear it. It is those folks who wish to hear now voice who will now find it precious and difficult to hear from me any more.

      Information censorship does not work and only hurt themselves, which I hope Seeking Alpha realize.

      Mark Anthony

     

    • McGonicleJanuary 13 at 1:50am

      I dont understand what you are trying to say about PCX as a position; if you did what you said, you doubled down multiple times, and it went to pennies. So, as a position, for which you were an endless cheerleader, and on which I also lost money, a fact which has no relation to you, you must have lost.

      I don't understand how you can say this was a gain. If you had other coal names, and you bought at the absolute bottom, you can only be up 40% in the case of the best names, and perhaps a buck or two in the case of the worst.

      That's incomprehensible. I'm not bashing you because i dislike you or have any personal stake in your sucess or failure.

      I'm only surprised that despite your ability to present and gather facts, that you cannot see something flawed and despicable about boosting a stock that is quite clearly in a death spiral.

     

    • Marc AnthonyJanuary 13 at 11:28am

      McGonicle:

      I explained it to youmultiple times already. You pick up 4 or 5 coal names. One goes belly up and the other 3 eventually goes up quadruple. Assuming you put equal amount of money (like say spent $40K, $10K on each). You lost $10K on one of them but gained $30K on each of the remaining three. You ultimately will have a net gain of $80K, or a triple of your money.

      But that requires conviction and determination. What is likely will happen for most people, is that at the point when PCX is down 75% from their purchasing point, they throw in the towel and sold PCX at 75% loss, and sold the other three at 50% loss. They avoided a 100% loss on PCX, but they have a net loss of $22.5K out of $40K invested, or net loss of 44%.

      What you don't understand is to have the conviction to hold positions firm for long term gain, you have to also have the conviction to hold a position firm even if there is a possibility it goes belly up. What's that guy doing selling PCX at 75% loss recovering $250? My wisdom is at that point I might as well keep it and lose that remaining $250 taking the risk. But I can not sell everything and lose the opportunity.

      Losing one of your positions in your portfolio, no matter how big, is only partial loss. But losing the opportunity altogehter, is a totall loss to me. If you lose every opportunitybecause you are unwilling to take some risk, you can not make any money.

      I am doing just fine even I lost a bigger chunk than I like to, in PCX. I have a net gain in the other names through the entire course of 2012. If only these other names I keep simply return to where they are at the beginning of 2012, I will have gained fantastically in 2012. They haven't so far. But they will and then move much higher. So I appreciated the opportunity to buy at prices much lower than what were available in 2011.

      If you have time,study a bit of Carl Icahn. In his investment career, he had plenty of flocks. Including one on MCOM which I witnessed in 2008. Every one wondered why he was so sturbbornly held to his MCOM positions when in the eyes of every one else, MCOM was clearly on a path to bankruptcy. Everyone including me wondered that maybe he knew something good the rest of us did not know, maybe he has insider info that MCOM would not go belly up. Eventually MCOM went belly up, and Carl Icahn sold his shares at 2 cents. He really did not any better than the rest of us. He was just stubborn and foollish.

      So laugh at Carl Icahn just as you laugh at me. He had much more flock-ups than any of us. But he is a billionaire. You have to think about why he is a billionaire if he freqently flock up on positions like MCOM. What makes the difference is his willingness and his stubbornness of willing to take risks. Just like I explained, you hold a few positions. Some flock up, some brings huge profits. You end up way ahead still.

      That concept may be incomprehensible to you. But most people can not comprehend why most seemingly smart people lose money in the market, but afew stubborn and foolish ones like Carl Icahn makes money.

      Mark Anthony

     

    • McGonicleJanuary 19 at 3:35am

      You are not an ETF. Choosing not to buy the dying name is critical to your purported strategy.

      the fact that PCX was trading at a premium to JRCC shows that the market does not always assess risk correctly.

      the fact that you are trying to argue for "massive diversification" across time and a whole sector is laughable.

      if the strategy you describe is to succeed, it would only do so by not including the elements that could go to zero, and not incorporating them.

      if such a cost/bottom/averaging strategy were to succeed, it would have to

      1)buy only survivors
      2) buy only bottoms

      i do not believe that this is what you have done.

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