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Wildebeest is a PhD MBA who invests primarily in resource stocks such as base metals, iron ore and coal.
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  • Additional Rail Freight data 3 comments
    Feb 27, 2010 3:18 PM
    Updated April 1

    Firstly charts of the two broad categories, intermodal and carloads.



    The growth in intermodal freight is driven by increased import/export activity as indicated by the correlation with container movements shown here:

    seekingalpha.com/article/195803-a-bottom...

    Here is the carload data:



    Previously people have said coal should be excluded from the carload data but I note that in week 12 coal shipments jumped substantially relative to 2008. Presumably people want it back in there now.

    Below are charts of the 18 categories that the Association of American Railroads [AAR] report. For YOY comparisons I don't believe that smoothing of this data is necessary. For example it is quite clear that changes occur in some categories over memorial day, July 4, labor day, thanksgiving, and Christmas/New year. I don't see the need to try and smooth these drops in activity away. In the charts below the color code is the same as in the charts above:

    2007 -- black;
    2008 -- orange;
    2009 -- green;
    2010 -- blue.

    Click on the images to get better resolution.

    Updated April 1.









    Disclosure: no positions
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Comments (3)
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  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (4530) | Send Message
     
    Greenshoots are showing signs of shriveling.

     

    Hyped up recovery. Yes a bounce off the abyss. The flip a house economy is not coming back.
    27 Mar 2010, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • boisterousbob
    , contributor
    Comments (348) | Send Message
     
    This is fascinating. May I ask though, the blue line is above the green line. That's good, isn't it?
    2 Apr 2010, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Wildebeest
    , contributor
    Comments (778) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Definitely (good). I think rail bottomed some time late last year and showing the right signs but still has some way to go.

     

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

     

    (note the data in this link is 2 weeks old. the trend upward is continuing but still small for carloads)
    2 Apr 2010, 07:40 PM Reply Like
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