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Thanks that came to my page ! I'm developer a stock trading robots (past 7 years). I'm looking for stock with Low Risk & Good Timing. You can follow my real portfolio and my other ideas. My target is to make 40% profit per year without loss it! Thanks that follow me. Taly. ****Use the... More
  • The Rules Have Changed! "Social Stock" Came 0 comments
    Sep 21, 2012 9:37 AM | about stocks: ZNGA, FB, GRPN, TEVA

    Hello evrybody, thanks for caming to ready my post.

    Today im going to talk about the - "Social Stock"

    The stocks like: GRPN , ZNGA , FB etc...

    How the hell can analyze these shares?

    For that matter,

    If we want to develop a robot that analyzes the technology sector, will the robot need to analyze the social stock, just as the analysis of other technology stock?

    I struggled with this question a lot.

    In fact, just yesterday I got a serious insight.

    The answer of course is - no.

    Analysis of social shares must be different from the analysis of standard technology stocks.

    I think I can (somewhat) simulate the social shares, to shares of Bio - technology.

    Interesting is not ...?

    Let's try to define our imaginary sector - social shares.

    I'll give it a "professional" name:


    Sector Description - Production and Development Services and / or experiences that provide a social networking experience.

    Actually, in this case, we try to give a definition to company that sells "experiences", as opposed to a technology company that sells a tangible product or service.

    The internet, getting a different meaning to the concept of an experience. Probably that it can analyze and determine which companies better, why, and when.

    A bit philosophical But I will try to make it easy to understand.

    Let's take for example biotechnology companies. They are not necessarily profitable companies, because they spend a lot of money on research, for example.

    So when we analyze such company is not looking only for profit figures, anyway we will check the market to turn products (products = pharmaceutical company develops).

    Back to "social share", and try to make admissions to the biotechnology sector.

    Groupon, Zynga, Facebook, and others ...

    • Liquid money, profit / loss turns on = The amount of people who use the service.
    • Drug = Gimmicks, experiences, and new refinements.
    • FDA and the approval = Successful implementation of the new gimmick in the company services with a vote of confidence from the users.
    • Dramatic drop in the stock indicates a severe technical failure, for example: Information security issues, decrease the number of users, etc. ...
    Facebook, Zynga, Groupon (the main social share) Each represents a sub - sector belonging to the sector "social share".

    For example,

    • Facebook - equivalent to companies like TEVA, a company with great potential and many different products (drugs = products = experiences). As long as the amount of users remain stable or growth, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) will continue to rise.
    • Zynga - equivalent to a drug company that produces revolutionary, but so far without success. Wait to Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) will produce the next addictive game. (Equivalent to a revolutionary drug).
    • Groupon - equivalent to a company engaged in providing innovative medical devices. As the amount of users increase service and create real revenue (not necessarily profit) Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN) will continue to rise.
    How to treat a situation where social companies publish report about new service?

    See value, Groupon presents a new payment service.

    Fast Up Fast Down - At first look the stock in most cases jumps, and then disposes of the increase, almost entirely.

    Take In Advance More Downs - In the second phase appears to decrease. Because if absence be afraid, will continue to decline in prices.

    Hold Some Price Levels - for the last phase we need to wait and see the stock hold any price levels & investors wait to see how the service is implemented and what the level of his popularity among users share (this result can came with any report or any addetional news from company) stock will boost down or up depending on the success of the new gimmick.

    Good Luck!

    Just me.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in ZNGA, FB, GRPN over the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: ZNGA, FB, GRPN, TEVA
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