edgetraderplus'  Instablog

Sunday 3 February 2013

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

We cannot count how many times, over the past 4 years, the number of people who have been salivating for a bear market, and not a few going short in "anticipation." This is not a bull market. This is a central planner's market, and with Pinocchio Ben's backing, there is no one
with pockets deep enough to counter the fiat-fueled up move.

The one thing that gave pause throughout every call for a bear market just being a whisper away, including those faux-pundits declaring one
is imminent, is the trend. It never turned down. Such a simple, no
brainer. Let's see what the market says.

Since the 2009 low, what has unfolded is a uptrend, defined by higher
highs, higher lows. Nothing more need be said.

The net gains from one swing high to the next have gotten smaller,
but there are no signs of stopping the move up.

A slow and steady move up is a market with no resistance, and there
is not a single wide bar with increased volume to the downside. One
thing we know for sure, it takes time to turn a trend around. Even the 2008 disaster took a few months from the high before its dramatic
decline.

Ironically, there were very few bears prepared for what followed, and
now many are prepared for what does not exist.

The simple factor of a defined trend should keep the bears in
hibernation until central planners give up funding the market, and that
does not appear to be any time soon.

Know the trend; don't fight the tape. Anyone who thinks he can divine the future is a fool.

Been there.